Presidential election, 2016

[playwrite]

(07-12-2016, 10:57 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(07-12-2016, 08:27 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

Of course that includes non-whites. At one time, formal education was a good proxy for economic success and Republican voting.  That is over. I can imagine how strong the Democratic lean is of college-educated blacks, Hispanics, and Asians who get some respect from undereducated people of their own ethnicity.

Now for white people (a poll by the Bloomberg news organization):

Quote:White voters with college degrees could help Clinton in swing states such as Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia, where a relatively large proportion of those voters are college-educated. She could do worse than Obama did in states where whites without a college degree are more plentiful, like Iowa and Ohio.

Reflecting her gender gap, Clinton trails very slightly among college-educated white men, with Trump getting 42 percent and Clinton getting 41 percent. Among white women, Clinton outpaces Trump 54 percent to 33 percent. 
The Democrat’s support, irrespective of race, grows with the poll participant's level of educational attainment. She beats Trump among those with graduate degrees 61 percent to 27 percent.

Even in a notional four-candidate field, Clinton beats Trump among college-educated likely voters, 45 percent to 27 percent. Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson received 10 percent support when included in the mix of candidates, below the 15-percent average he would need in national polls to be included in this year’s presidential debates. Jill Stein, the presumptive Green Party nominee, received 3 percent.

The survey was conducted July 7-10 by Washington-based Purple Strategies, using a nationally representative online opt-in panel of 653 respondents. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the topline results, and a higher margin of error for subgroups.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articl...llege-poll

Donald Trump loses 347-191 in the Electoral college if he gets only 52% of the college-educated white vote (2012 Obama +NC), and 363-175 in the Electoral College (losing Georgia) with 48% of the educated white vote.

This is with the 'even shift'.

Here in the Bay Area:

Educated = Dem or Moderate (now considered Left) GOP
Uneducated White = toss up
Uneducated PoC = Dem

Cal is so solidly behind the Blue Wall, these numbers don't really matter much there.

They do matter for filling Boxer's Senate seat however.

But the real race in California is the Rep. Darrel "A-hole" Issa race!

Doug Applegate, a retired US Marine Colonel, is running against him.  Applegate has stated that Trump is unfit to run for Commander and Chief; Issa was one of first and strongest Trump supporters.

Latest poll has Applegate pulling even with Issa!

Darrell Issa facing reelection fight

The district has been a solid San Diego Red one, but demographics are shifting it towards Blue; the anti-Trumpism in California could be the tipping point in 2016!

Even if the GOP holds the House in 2016, a big Issa loss could send a BIG message to the GOP that wearing asshats can get them thrown out.  Maybe they'll even temper their Salem witch hunts

Best would be Issa trying to 'swift boat' Applegate who was stationed at Camp Pendleton which is in the district.  Maybe with an Applegate win, those military and vets that still believe the GOP cares more for them than just cannon fodder would wake-up just a tad more.

If you live in California, not necessarily in San Diego, this might be the race to pay attention to if not provide support to Applegate.  Hell, even if you don't live in California, this might be the one.