07-15-2016, 10:18 AM
One pollster, Morning Consult, has polled all fifty states and Dee Cee and gotten prospective margins for Trump and Clinton. Unfortunately for this model it says nothing about Johnson, who will shape this race significantly.
In an allusion to a pop song of the 1950s...
"Don't know much their methodology
don't know much about their history
they sure give us strange geometry..."
WY: Trump +34
WV: Trump +28
AK: Trump +21
AL: Trump +19
LA: Trump +18
MS: Trump +18
TN: Trump +16
KY: Trump +14
OK: Trump +14
SD: Trump +14
NE: Trump +12
UT: Trump +12
AR: Trump +11
ID: Trump +11
KS: Trump +11
SC: Trump +10
MO: Trump +9
MT: Trump +9
ND: Trump +9
AZ: Trump +8
IN: Trump +8
TX: Trump +5
NC: Trump +3
ME: Trump +2
OH: Trump +1
IA: Tie
PA: Tie
FL: Clinton +1
NH: Clinton +1
GA: Clinton +1
WI: Clinton +2
MI: Clinton +3
NM: Clinton +3
NV: Clinton +4
CT: Clinton +5
DE: Clinton +5
VA: Clinton +5
CO: Clinton +8
OR: Clinton +9
MN: Clinton +10
NJ: Clinton +10
RI: Clinton +12
IL: Clinton +13
WA: Clinton +14
VT: Clinton +16
MA: Clinton +17
NY: Clinton +17
MD: Clinton +18
CA: Clinton +19
HI: Clinton +19
DC: Clinton +46
In an allusion to a pop song of the 1950s...
"Don't know much their methodology
don't know much about their history
they sure give us strange geometry..."
WY: Trump +34
WV: Trump +28
AK: Trump +21
AL: Trump +19
LA: Trump +18
MS: Trump +18
TN: Trump +16
KY: Trump +14
OK: Trump +14
SD: Trump +14
NE: Trump +12
UT: Trump +12
AR: Trump +11
ID: Trump +11
KS: Trump +11
SC: Trump +10
MO: Trump +9
MT: Trump +9
ND: Trump +9
AZ: Trump +8
IN: Trump +8
TX: Trump +5
NC: Trump +3
ME: Trump +2
OH: Trump +1
IA: Tie
PA: Tie
FL: Clinton +1
NH: Clinton +1
GA: Clinton +1
WI: Clinton +2
MI: Clinton +3
NM: Clinton +3
NV: Clinton +4
CT: Clinton +5
DE: Clinton +5
VA: Clinton +5
CO: Clinton +8
OR: Clinton +9
MN: Clinton +10
NJ: Clinton +10
RI: Clinton +12
IL: Clinton +13
WA: Clinton +14
VT: Clinton +16
MA: Clinton +17
NY: Clinton +17
MD: Clinton +18
CA: Clinton +19
HI: Clinton +19
DC: Clinton +46
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.