08-18-2016, 08:19 AM
Can Donald Trump win? He could if he weren't so erratic. Jimmy Carter saw most of his early lead against Gerald Ford whittled away. Carter still won,, but not by much. George H W Bush looked doomed against Mike Dukakis in 1988... but the elder Bush ended up with a margin of popular victory similar to that of Obama in 2008.
But -- Gerald Ford (if not a particularly good campaigner) and George H W Bush represent rational actors in national politics. Donald Trump isn't.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trum...6-forecast
But -- Gerald Ford (if not a particularly good campaigner) and George H W Bush represent rational actors in national politics. Donald Trump isn't.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trum...6-forecast
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.