05-17-2016, 04:51 PM
(05-17-2016, 11:20 AM)playwrite Wrote: Anyone references a Q-pac state polls this early is clearly indicating their cluelessness. For a good laugh, see the 2012 Q-pac polls at a similar point in the cycle.
Those in the know suggest that one only look seriously at the average of national polls, and take into account likely temporary bumps resulting from such events as consolidating the nomination.
Or, one can remain clueless.
As a pattern, Quinnipiac does not encourage leaners to say which way they are likely to vote. This is my experience with Quinnipiac polls.
We are at the point in which I typically end up with polls to average, which is typically a week apart or so.
...Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania all tend to drift D from the spring, so if they are at all close, then Donald Trump will be in deep trouble as Election Day looms. A slight lead for Clinton in Florida indicates that the Trump campaign has its work cut out.
My favorite pollster, PPP has something to say about Arizona, a State that has gone only once for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1948.
Quote:The Presidential election is pretty competitive in Arizona at this point. Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton just 40-38, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. There's a significant 'Never Trump' contingent among Arizona Republicans. While Clinton gets 80% of the Democratic vote, Trump is only getting 68% of the GOP vote at this stage. That number tracks with our finding that just 65% of Republicans say they're comfortable with Trump as their nominee to 22% who say they aren't. When you narrow the field to just Clinton and Trump though, Trump's lead goes up to 45/41 because his share of the GOP vote increases to 77%. 15% of Republicans are undecided compared to 8% of Democrats, so if the party really unites around Trump eventually he'll get close to being up by the kind of margins Republicans are accustomed to in the state but for now it's tight.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/....html#more
Arizona is within range of being the equivalent of Virginia, 2008 this year. Symptomatic of the troubles of the Republican Party in Arizona, venerable Senator John McCain is at risk of losing the primary election to get re-elected. But that is for a thread on 2016 Senatorial elections.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.