Strange things are always possible. West Virginia used to be reliably Democratic, going for Republican nominees for President only in electoral blowouts as in 1956, 1972 and 1984. Then it surprised about everyone by going for George W. Bush in 2000 and never going back to any Democratic nominee.
What happened in West Virginia? The once-powerful United Mine Workers was able to get the coal miners organized. In view of the danger of coal mining it is easy to imagine the bonds that develop between coal miners, even to the extent that coal miners typically married the daughters of coal miners. Getting so tightly-knit people to find common cause in politics is fairly easy. But eventually the coal seams were mined out, and miners lost their jobs. Meanwhile the Democrats who had won state and local offices had failed to invest in education, highways, and public health, and when things got bad the Democrats owned the problems. Republicans kissed up to the coal barons, offered little to anyone else except support for 'traditional values', and got elected.
With Virginia it has been people moving into Virginia from Democratic-leaning states like New York, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. They bring their Democratic-leaning politics with them.... often because they are government employees more concerned with the government paying their salaries than with the government extracting taxes from them.
New Mexico was a fairly conservative state when the ranching interests dominated politics (which is still true of the part of eastern New Mexico adjacent to the Texas state line). But the Hispanic electorate grew, and it remained Democratic. New Mexico has gone from being a swing state about ten years ago (Gore 2000, Dubya in 2004) to being one of the states most likely to vote Democratic for President.
So what lean-D states seem to be drifting R? It's hard to pick one. Look for a state that hasn't gone Republican since at least 1988 that Hillary Clinton campaigns heavy and late, and there is the answer to that question. Which traditionally R states might go D this time? Arizona looks to be a possibility because Donald Trump has so insulted Mexican-Americans and anyone who has a connection (like an in-law) that he could lose a huge group of voters. Also, Arizona is getting lots of D-leaning Californians fleeing the high costs of real estate. Those recent Californians are likely to bring their political patterns with them. Colorado was like that.
Want a wild projection? Kansas. The Republican Party has dominated Kansas politics since at least L. Frank Baum wrote a story about Dorothy going for a ride in a tornado and ending up in Oz. The Kansas GOP is in two factions, one ultra-conservative and one moderate. Should those factions rift, the tiny Democratic Party might be in an excellent position to pick up a dissatisfied faction in the political equivalent of a tornado. Who knows when that might happen?
What happened in West Virginia? The once-powerful United Mine Workers was able to get the coal miners organized. In view of the danger of coal mining it is easy to imagine the bonds that develop between coal miners, even to the extent that coal miners typically married the daughters of coal miners. Getting so tightly-knit people to find common cause in politics is fairly easy. But eventually the coal seams were mined out, and miners lost their jobs. Meanwhile the Democrats who had won state and local offices had failed to invest in education, highways, and public health, and when things got bad the Democrats owned the problems. Republicans kissed up to the coal barons, offered little to anyone else except support for 'traditional values', and got elected.
With Virginia it has been people moving into Virginia from Democratic-leaning states like New York, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. They bring their Democratic-leaning politics with them.... often because they are government employees more concerned with the government paying their salaries than with the government extracting taxes from them.
New Mexico was a fairly conservative state when the ranching interests dominated politics (which is still true of the part of eastern New Mexico adjacent to the Texas state line). But the Hispanic electorate grew, and it remained Democratic. New Mexico has gone from being a swing state about ten years ago (Gore 2000, Dubya in 2004) to being one of the states most likely to vote Democratic for President.
So what lean-D states seem to be drifting R? It's hard to pick one. Look for a state that hasn't gone Republican since at least 1988 that Hillary Clinton campaigns heavy and late, and there is the answer to that question. Which traditionally R states might go D this time? Arizona looks to be a possibility because Donald Trump has so insulted Mexican-Americans and anyone who has a connection (like an in-law) that he could lose a huge group of voters. Also, Arizona is getting lots of D-leaning Californians fleeing the high costs of real estate. Those recent Californians are likely to bring their political patterns with them. Colorado was like that.
Want a wild projection? Kansas. The Republican Party has dominated Kansas politics since at least L. Frank Baum wrote a story about Dorothy going for a ride in a tornado and ending up in Oz. The Kansas GOP is in two factions, one ultra-conservative and one moderate. Should those factions rift, the tiny Democratic Party might be in an excellent position to pick up a dissatisfied faction in the political equivalent of a tornado. Who knows when that might happen?
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.