My weekend projection (early morning, 8/27/2016)
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;;7&AK=0;;4&AZ=2;;4&AR=0;;6&CA=1;;6&CO=1;;6&CT=1;;6&DE=1;;6&DC=1;;5&FL=1;;2&GA=4;;1&HI=1;;6&ID=0;;6&IL=1;;6&IN=2;;7&IA=1;;2&KS=2;;4&KY=2;;7&LA=0;;5&MD=1;;6&MA=1;;6&MI=1;;6&MN=1;;6&MS=2;;7&MO=2;;2&MT=0;;5&NV=1;;2&NH=1;;6&NJ=1;;6&NM=1;;6;;4&NY=1;;6&NC=1;;4&ND=0;;5&OH=1;;2&OK=2;;7&OR=1;;6&PA=1;;6&RI=1;;6&SC=2;;2&SD=0;;5&TN=2;;7&TX=2;;4&UT=2;;6&VT=1;;6&VA=1;;6&WA=1;;6&WV=0;;6&WI=1;;6&WY=0;;6&ME=1;;5&ME1=1;X;6&ME2=1;X;2&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
New Mexico has been polled for the first time in a long time, and the state is effectively out of range for Donald Trump. I consider at least 272 electoral votes out of range a meaningful contest at this stage in a Presidential race.
8% is not close.
My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.
8% is effectively out of range for peeling off a state from the Other Side with normal campaigning even at its most intense. Donald Trump needs miracles to have a chance now.
New Mexico has been polled for the first time in a long time, and the state is effectively out of range for Donald Trump. I consider at least 272 electoral votes out of range a meaningful contest at this stage in a Presidential race.
8% is not close.
My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.
8% is effectively out of range for peeling off a state from the Other Side with normal campaigning even at its most intense. Donald Trump needs miracles to have a chance now.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.