Presidential election, 2016

[Eric the Green]

(10-16-2016, 09:38 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: A strong third-party nominee capable of cutting into the incumbent's votes (Perot in 1992 and 1996, Anderson in 1980), let alone winning some electoral votes (Thurmond in 1948 or Wallace in 1968) typically hurts the incumbent's Party badly. This time, the significant third-party nominee hurts the challenger's party and not the incumbent's party. 

Lichtman says that the usual keys indicate not that Donald Trump would be elected (he calls him a "serial fabricator", someone who has lived entirely for his gain and indulgence, and has kissed up to a nasty and powerful dictator), but instead that a generic Republican would win against Hillary Clinton.

Another wrinkle here is that there are only five keys against the party in power IF Johnson is not getting over 10 points in the polls now. He seems to be taking votes away from both parties about equally. But if Trump were not running as the challenger nominee, Johnson (an alternative to Trump) would be getting less poll numbers-- which might take away the 6th key, according to Lichtman's rules-- even if he might therefore be taking more from the incumbent party nominee than from the challenging Republican.