Presidential election, 2016

[pbrower2a]

Two-way map (ignoring Johnson). Hillary Clinton has clinched the Democratic nomination.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




I now assume that Gary Johnson will perform better than the typical third-party or independent nominee this year due to widespread discontent with one or both of the nominees of the two major parties. I can see the Johnson/Weld ticket winning much support from people who usually vote for both of the two main parties; even if this ticket does not win any electoral votes it could decide some states in ways that one might not otherwise expect in a two-way race. The 2016 election no longer like a pure two-way race, and I do not see it looking like a two-way race; both Clinton and Trump have political baggage that neither is likely to cast off before November.  I would not rule out the Reform Party endorsing Johnson/Weld.



Three-way plan: saturation suggests the raw percentage of votes for the likely winner (2 for 20-30%, 3 for 30-39%, 4 for 40-49%, 5 for 50-59%), Letter shows the party of the leader (T for a tie among the two leaders), the number following that letter the percentage number; then the Johnson number. No numbers will be shown for anyone with 50% or more of the likely vote in any state or district because one cannot lose with 50% or more of the vote in a three-way race.





White is for ties. Even leads in the twenties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (Democratic)
Trump (Republican)
Johnson (Libertarian)

To illustrate decisive leads,  a tie and a Libertarian lead look like I will show the unlikely scenario of a tie in North Dakota between Clinton and Trump (with Johnson getting 16) and a Libertarian lead in South Dakota in which Clinton is in second place with 44L, 32D, 22R .  In this case the second-place candidate is identified by party and raw number. Also preposterously suggesting  that Hillary Clinton  will get 52% of the vote in Nebraska, Gary Johnson will get 52% of the vote in Iowa,  and that Donald Trump will get  52% of the vote in Minnesota for illustrative purposes (not that I believe any of this possible)... the map below is an illustration and not a prediction of reality...

Margin-based plan. Partisan lead, then Johnson number. This should be easier to read. Colors based upon absolute totals for the leader.




White is for ties. Even leads in the twenties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the leader.