06-29-2018, 10:41 PM
*** 30-Jun-18 World View -- EU leaders agree on fantasy migration plan after all-night meeting
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** EU leaders agree on fantasy migration plan after all-night meeting
****
![[Image: g180629b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180629b.jpg)
Angela Merkel speaks with other country leaders at EU Summit on Thursday and Friday (Getty)
As we reported a week ago,
the
Europeans were desperately searching for a solution to the migration
problem, and they were considering a form of detention center called
"Disembarkation Platforms," to be located in northern Africa, where
newly arrived migrants could be taken initially for processing of
asylum requests.
The promise was that a detailed plan would be worked out during the
the major EU Summit meeting held in Brussels the last two days. The
leaders met all day Thursday and then long into the night, finally
announcing an agreement at 4:30 am. However, the agreement had no
more details than the original proposal, and appears to be a fudge.
(Note to lexicographers: I've been seeing the word "fudge" a lot
more lately. Besides a chocolate goodie, a fudge is something that's
ambiguous, deceitful or a compromise. It seems to have replaced the
phrase that was commonly used during Greece's financial crisis:
"kicking the can down the road." In either case, they refer to a
non-agreement that let's everyone congratulate one another on having
reached a deal, and then go home and get some sleep, while postponing
the search for a real solution to a later date.)
The new agreement tells almost nothing about how the Disembarkation
Platforms would work:
<QUOTE>"5. In order to definitively break the business model
of the smugglers, thus preventing tragic loss of life, it is
necessary to eliminate the incentive to embark on perilous
journeys. This requires a new approach based on shared or
complementary actions among the Member States to the
disembarkation of those who are saved in Search And Rescue
operations. In that context, the European Council calls on the
Council and the Commission to swiftly explore the concept of
regional disembarkation platforms, in close cooperation with
relevant third countries as well as UNHCR and IOM. Such platforms
should operate distinguishing individual situations, in full
respect of international law and without creating a pull
factor."<END QUOTE>
That paragraph contains just over 100 words, and it manages to do so
while saying absolutely nothing.
No country has volunteered to host a Disembarkation Platform.
Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia have explicitly refused, and a spokesman
for one of the three governments in Libya also refused, and said that
he thought the other two governments would refuse as well. One
concern that all of these countries have is that a Disembarkation
Platform would encourage jihadist attacks.
Even if an African country considered hosting one of these
Disembarkation Platforms, there would be international outrage from
human rights activists.
The next paragraph of the agreement extends the detention center
concept to "Controlled Centers" within the EU itself:
<QUOTE>"6. On EU territory, those who are saved, according to
international law, should be taken charge of, on the basis of a
shared effort, through the transfer in controlled centers set up
in Member States, only on a voluntary basis, where rapid and
secure processing would allow, with full EU support, to
distinguish between irregular migrants, who will be returned, and
those in need of international protection, for whom the principle
of solidarity would apply. All the measures in the context of
these controlled centres, including relocation and resettlement,
will be on a voluntary basis, without prejudice to the Dublin
reform."<END QUOTE>
This paragraph says almost nothing. The one thing that it does say --
twice -- is "on a voluntary basis," which means that no country would
have to allow a "Controlled Center" on its soil.
France and Austria, two countries that border Italy, immediately said
that they would not be willing to host Controlled Centers on their
soil.
France's president Emmanuel Macron said that his reading of the
agreement indicated that Controlled Centers would only be set up in
"frontline states," which means Italy and Greece, but certainly not
France. Italy's prime minister Giuseppe Conte issued a rebuke, saying
that "Macron was tired," and did not understand the agreement, since
it said that all EU states could set up the centers, "including
France."
One analyst I heard, who obviously liked this deal, painted a picture
of dozens of these little Controlled Centers located all across the
EU. These people are truly living in Fantasyland. European Council - agreement and Vice News and European Council - Disembarkation Centers
****
**** Italy backs down from threat to veto the agreement over Dublin regulation
****
Italy had threatened to veto the entire agreement unless the "Dublin
regulation" was modified. This regulation specifies that the EU
country that a migrant enters first is the country that must house the
migrant and process his asylum application.
This regulation obviously places almost the entire burden of housing
and processing migrants on Italy and Greece. Italy had demanded that
the regulation be changed so that other countries would have to take a
portion of the migrants entering Italy, but obviously no one wants to
agree to that, and in fact, Hungary, Poland and Austria are opposed to
any change at all to this regulation. So the agreement is silent on
the Dublin regulation.
The rules of the European Council specify that no agreement can be
issued unless it's unanimously agreed. Italy had threatened to veto
any agreement that didn't modify the Dublin regulation. All Italy got
was some vague wording that migration is a European problem, not just
an Italian problem. But the agreement was not vetoed, so apparently
Italy backed down from its threat. Italy's prime minister Giuseppe
Conte may be rebuked by other Italian leaders for this.
The agreement was also silent on "secondary migration," whereby many
migrants that entered Italy went on to settle in Germany. Germany's
Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing a challenge from Horst Seehofer, the
leader of another member of her governing coalition. Seehofer wanted
the agreement to specify that migrants in Germany who entered the EU
in Italy should now be sent back to Italy. This would require a
bilateral agreement between Germany and Italy, and obviously Italy
will not agree to such a deal. Seehofer has threatened to bring down
Merkel's government if he doesn't get his way, and he may do so early
next week. However, there have been some reports that Seehofer is
softening his position, so he may back down also.
At any rate, the only thing that's certain is that even though all the
EU leaders were congratulating themselves and each other for reaching
such a fine agreement, nonetheless that agreement is a fantasy. The
EU is no closer to solving the migration problem than it was a week
ago. AFP and Reuters and Al-Jazeera
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Germany, Angela Merkel,
Disembarkation Platforms, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya,
Controlled Centers, Italy, Giuseppe Conte,
France, Emmanuel Macron, Austria,
Hungary, Poland, Greece, Horst Seehofer
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- EU leaders agree on fantasy migration plan after all-night meeting
- Italy backs down from threat to veto the agreement over Dublin regulation
****
**** EU leaders agree on fantasy migration plan after all-night meeting
****
Angela Merkel speaks with other country leaders at EU Summit on Thursday and Friday (Getty)
As we reported a week ago,
the
Europeans were desperately searching for a solution to the migration
problem, and they were considering a form of detention center called
"Disembarkation Platforms," to be located in northern Africa, where
newly arrived migrants could be taken initially for processing of
asylum requests.
The promise was that a detailed plan would be worked out during the
the major EU Summit meeting held in Brussels the last two days. The
leaders met all day Thursday and then long into the night, finally
announcing an agreement at 4:30 am. However, the agreement had no
more details than the original proposal, and appears to be a fudge.
(Note to lexicographers: I've been seeing the word "fudge" a lot
more lately. Besides a chocolate goodie, a fudge is something that's
ambiguous, deceitful or a compromise. It seems to have replaced the
phrase that was commonly used during Greece's financial crisis:
"kicking the can down the road." In either case, they refer to a
non-agreement that let's everyone congratulate one another on having
reached a deal, and then go home and get some sleep, while postponing
the search for a real solution to a later date.)
The new agreement tells almost nothing about how the Disembarkation
Platforms would work:
<QUOTE>"5. In order to definitively break the business model
of the smugglers, thus preventing tragic loss of life, it is
necessary to eliminate the incentive to embark on perilous
journeys. This requires a new approach based on shared or
complementary actions among the Member States to the
disembarkation of those who are saved in Search And Rescue
operations. In that context, the European Council calls on the
Council and the Commission to swiftly explore the concept of
regional disembarkation platforms, in close cooperation with
relevant third countries as well as UNHCR and IOM. Such platforms
should operate distinguishing individual situations, in full
respect of international law and without creating a pull
factor."<END QUOTE>
That paragraph contains just over 100 words, and it manages to do so
while saying absolutely nothing.
No country has volunteered to host a Disembarkation Platform.
Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia have explicitly refused, and a spokesman
for one of the three governments in Libya also refused, and said that
he thought the other two governments would refuse as well. One
concern that all of these countries have is that a Disembarkation
Platform would encourage jihadist attacks.
Even if an African country considered hosting one of these
Disembarkation Platforms, there would be international outrage from
human rights activists.
The next paragraph of the agreement extends the detention center
concept to "Controlled Centers" within the EU itself:
<QUOTE>"6. On EU territory, those who are saved, according to
international law, should be taken charge of, on the basis of a
shared effort, through the transfer in controlled centers set up
in Member States, only on a voluntary basis, where rapid and
secure processing would allow, with full EU support, to
distinguish between irregular migrants, who will be returned, and
those in need of international protection, for whom the principle
of solidarity would apply. All the measures in the context of
these controlled centres, including relocation and resettlement,
will be on a voluntary basis, without prejudice to the Dublin
reform."<END QUOTE>
This paragraph says almost nothing. The one thing that it does say --
twice -- is "on a voluntary basis," which means that no country would
have to allow a "Controlled Center" on its soil.
France and Austria, two countries that border Italy, immediately said
that they would not be willing to host Controlled Centers on their
soil.
France's president Emmanuel Macron said that his reading of the
agreement indicated that Controlled Centers would only be set up in
"frontline states," which means Italy and Greece, but certainly not
France. Italy's prime minister Giuseppe Conte issued a rebuke, saying
that "Macron was tired," and did not understand the agreement, since
it said that all EU states could set up the centers, "including
France."
One analyst I heard, who obviously liked this deal, painted a picture
of dozens of these little Controlled Centers located all across the
EU. These people are truly living in Fantasyland. European Council - agreement and Vice News and European Council - Disembarkation Centers
****
**** Italy backs down from threat to veto the agreement over Dublin regulation
****
Italy had threatened to veto the entire agreement unless the "Dublin
regulation" was modified. This regulation specifies that the EU
country that a migrant enters first is the country that must house the
migrant and process his asylum application.
This regulation obviously places almost the entire burden of housing
and processing migrants on Italy and Greece. Italy had demanded that
the regulation be changed so that other countries would have to take a
portion of the migrants entering Italy, but obviously no one wants to
agree to that, and in fact, Hungary, Poland and Austria are opposed to
any change at all to this regulation. So the agreement is silent on
the Dublin regulation.
The rules of the European Council specify that no agreement can be
issued unless it's unanimously agreed. Italy had threatened to veto
any agreement that didn't modify the Dublin regulation. All Italy got
was some vague wording that migration is a European problem, not just
an Italian problem. But the agreement was not vetoed, so apparently
Italy backed down from its threat. Italy's prime minister Giuseppe
Conte may be rebuked by other Italian leaders for this.
The agreement was also silent on "secondary migration," whereby many
migrants that entered Italy went on to settle in Germany. Germany's
Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing a challenge from Horst Seehofer, the
leader of another member of her governing coalition. Seehofer wanted
the agreement to specify that migrants in Germany who entered the EU
in Italy should now be sent back to Italy. This would require a
bilateral agreement between Germany and Italy, and obviously Italy
will not agree to such a deal. Seehofer has threatened to bring down
Merkel's government if he doesn't get his way, and he may do so early
next week. However, there have been some reports that Seehofer is
softening his position, so he may back down also.
At any rate, the only thing that's certain is that even though all the
EU leaders were congratulating themselves and each other for reaching
such a fine agreement, nonetheless that agreement is a fantasy. The
EU is no closer to solving the migration problem than it was a week
ago. AFP and Reuters and Al-Jazeera
Related Articles:
- Desperate European Union considers 'Disembarkation Platforms' for migrants (23-Jun-2018)
- Italy's migration policy opens up battle lines within the EU (17-Jun-2018)
- EU faces new crisis as Italy demands that Malta accept African migrants (11-Jun-2018)
- Italy begs for help after 12,000 migrants arrive in four days (30-Jun-2017)
- EU migrant crisis moves to Italy as Austria begins closing border (13-Apr-2016)
- France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses (16-Jun-2015)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Germany, Angela Merkel,
Disembarkation Platforms, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya,
Controlled Centers, Italy, Giuseppe Conte,
France, Emmanuel Macron, Austria,
Hungary, Poland, Greece, Horst Seehofer
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
