08-15-2021, 06:25 AM
** 15-Aug-2021 World View: Watching the fall of Kabul
I've been watching the fall of Kabul on al-Jazaeera and the BBC.
The BBC is calling it the worst foreign policy disaster in decades --
since the Egyptians defeated the British in 1956 over control of the
Suez Canal. Many people say they're in shock over this happening.
Britain has a long history in Afghanistan, and people interviewed by
the BBC recently have been talking about abandonment and betrayal.
I'm listening to one British official saying, "I hang my head in
shame" over what is happening."
The Taliban are saying that they're holding back from a full invasion
of Kabul to give the Afghan government a chance to resign, and give
the new Taliban government legitimacy. This also gives several
thousand people in the American embassy a chance to flee to the
airport, so that there won't be people hanging off of helicopters as
the were in the Fall of Saigon in 1975.
An interesting aspect of the collapse of the Afghan forces is that in
one city after another the existing government has simply resigned,
and turned the government over to the Taliban in a friendly manner.
There are two major side effects in each case. First, guns, tanks and
drones and other weapons that the Americans left behind for the Afghan
forces to defend themselves are now in the hands of the
Taliban. Second, hundreds of Taliban fighters who had been in jail are
now out and free to fight again.
As I've been saying for years, southern Afghanistan is governed by
ethnic Pashtuns. The Afghan officials are Pashtuns. The Taliban are
radicalized Pashtuns. So the Taliban have been entering each city and
there has often been a brotherly transfer of power.
The major exception so far has been the city of Mazar-i-Sharif in
northern Afghanistan, near the border with Uzbekistan. Many people
have been fleeing across the border to escape the advance of the
Taliban. Mazar-i-Sharif was the site of some of the bloodiest
massacres in 1997 between the Northern Alliance (Tajiks, Hazaras and
Uzbeks) and the Taliban (Pashtuns), following the Afghan civil war.
When the Taliban are in power again, it's absolutely certain that
there will be a new massacre by the Taliban in Mazar-i-Sharif.
https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-bus...d176987b19
No matter how you look at it, the Pashtuns are a minority ethnic group
in Afghanistan, and they will not have the allegiance of anything like
the entire country. Many groups will now be seeking bloody revenge
for the atrocities committed during the 1990s.
Note:
Afghanistan's 2004 constitution recognizes 14 ethnic groups: Pashtun,
Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Baloch, Turkmen, Nuristani, Pamiri, Arab, Gujar,
Brahui, Qizilbash, Aimaq, and Pashai
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/c...nd-society
According to 2010 data from the US Department of State, the largest
ethnic group in Afghanistan is the Pashtun (including Kuchis),
comprising 42% of Afghans. The Tajiks are the second largest ethnic
group, at 27% of the population, followed by the Hazaras (9%), Uzbeks
(9%), Aimaq (4%), Turkmen (3%), Baluch (2%) and other groups that make
up 4%.
https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan...estigation
I've been watching the fall of Kabul on al-Jazaeera and the BBC.
The BBC is calling it the worst foreign policy disaster in decades --
since the Egyptians defeated the British in 1956 over control of the
Suez Canal. Many people say they're in shock over this happening.
Britain has a long history in Afghanistan, and people interviewed by
the BBC recently have been talking about abandonment and betrayal.
I'm listening to one British official saying, "I hang my head in
shame" over what is happening."
The Taliban are saying that they're holding back from a full invasion
of Kabul to give the Afghan government a chance to resign, and give
the new Taliban government legitimacy. This also gives several
thousand people in the American embassy a chance to flee to the
airport, so that there won't be people hanging off of helicopters as
the were in the Fall of Saigon in 1975.
An interesting aspect of the collapse of the Afghan forces is that in
one city after another the existing government has simply resigned,
and turned the government over to the Taliban in a friendly manner.
There are two major side effects in each case. First, guns, tanks and
drones and other weapons that the Americans left behind for the Afghan
forces to defend themselves are now in the hands of the
Taliban. Second, hundreds of Taliban fighters who had been in jail are
now out and free to fight again.
As I've been saying for years, southern Afghanistan is governed by
ethnic Pashtuns. The Afghan officials are Pashtuns. The Taliban are
radicalized Pashtuns. So the Taliban have been entering each city and
there has often been a brotherly transfer of power.
The major exception so far has been the city of Mazar-i-Sharif in
northern Afghanistan, near the border with Uzbekistan. Many people
have been fleeing across the border to escape the advance of the
Taliban. Mazar-i-Sharif was the site of some of the bloodiest
massacres in 1997 between the Northern Alliance (Tajiks, Hazaras and
Uzbeks) and the Taliban (Pashtuns), following the Afghan civil war.
When the Taliban are in power again, it's absolutely certain that
there will be a new massacre by the Taliban in Mazar-i-Sharif.
https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-bus...d176987b19
No matter how you look at it, the Pashtuns are a minority ethnic group
in Afghanistan, and they will not have the allegiance of anything like
the entire country. Many groups will now be seeking bloody revenge
for the atrocities committed during the 1990s.
Note:
Afghanistan's 2004 constitution recognizes 14 ethnic groups: Pashtun,
Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Baloch, Turkmen, Nuristani, Pamiri, Arab, Gujar,
Brahui, Qizilbash, Aimaq, and Pashai
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/c...nd-society
According to 2010 data from the US Department of State, the largest
ethnic group in Afghanistan is the Pashtun (including Kuchis),
comprising 42% of Afghans. The Tajiks are the second largest ethnic
group, at 27% of the population, followed by the Hazaras (9%), Uzbeks
(9%), Aimaq (4%), Turkmen (3%), Baluch (2%) and other groups that make
up 4%.
https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan...estigation
