Grey Champions and the Election of 2016

[Eric the Green]

(11-11-2016, 10:18 AM)noway2 Wrote:

(11-10-2016, 07:12 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: I rather like the word cuck.  The concept predates National Socialism by several centuries actually.  But then again I suppose that since Nazis use words any word could be considered a code word.

I don't consider it a code word as I am seeing it used in common speech these days outside of the "alt right" spehere.  Yes, it did originate with the white national socialists as a short form of "cuckservative" as a portmanteau of cuckold and conservative and is used as a strong pejorative for the more common term "RINO" meaning a so called conservative who apparently sides with liberals.

A diminishing breed, then.

[Mikebert]

I don't think Trump can be a grey champion because I don't think there are any.  Trumps election more or less puts the final nail in the coffin from the generation theory.  The theory holds that the Awakening creates raises issue or creates belief systems that influence the prophet generation coming of age, who then later put these ideals into practice later in life during a 4T when they are known as grey champions.  S&H call the 2T the New Consciousness, which certainly seems a reference to the late sixties and early 1970's.  Both candidates were age 22 in 1968-69, right in the middle of this.  So this fits age-wise.  But DST theory and empirical data shows that the core issue resolved in 4T is problems stemming from elite proliferation caused by high economic inequality.

How can Trump deal with this?  Many ways have been used in the past.  

[1A] in early 1066 England had a Saxon king and a Saxon elite. According to Domesday, by 1086 England had a Norman king and a Norman elite and population was rising after centuries of stagnation.
[1B] Fifty years earlier the Danes had conquered England too, but they left the Saxon elites in place.  Guess which invasion was the 4T?

[2A] After Henry VI went insane the country fell apart and a 30 year civil war began, on which the popular series Game of Thrones is based. At the end of the conflict the entire ruling House had been wiped out leaving one man in power, who proceeded to craft a legislative agenda to prevent future challenges to the state.  Population growth resumed and prosperity ensued.
[2B] Half a century earlier civil war had also wracked the nation, but had been put down by the able and charismatic son of the aging king, who later went on to win renown in external conquests only to suffer an untimely death leaving an infant son on the throne.  Which civil war was the 4T?

[3A] A civil war led to the execution of Charles I and the abolition of the monarchy and establishment of a republic, than soon devolved into a military dictatorship. Upon the dictator's death he was succeeded by his son, but he was unable to gain the support of the elite and the monarch was restored.
[3B]A generation later a foreign invader with substantial domestic support displaced the monarch replacing it with a new one that shared power with Parliament. A flurry of reforms created an environment conducive to economic growth, which provided many new opportunities for elites. After decades of stagnation, population growth resumed as the economy improved. Which event was the 4T?

[4A]An isolated portion of the English state became increasingly frustrated with limits on territorial expansion, monetary policy, and regulation of commerce, and rebelled.  The won and expelled pro-English elites.  After a brief chaotic period they implemented a flurry of reforms created an environment conducive to economic growth, which provided many new opportunities for elites.
[4B]A generation later two rival factions of the successful revolutionaries settled differences in governance in a peaceful fashion preserving the status of all involved. Which event was the 4T?

In each of these there is one choice where the problem of elite numbers was not addressed, either through reduction in numbers or through expansion of opportunities and one where the status quo was maintained.  The former are the 4Ts.  The answers above are 1A, 2A (Wars if the Roses), 3B (Glorious Revolution), 4A (American Revolution.

As we moved into the industrial age, the problem of elite proliferation was addresses by confiscating the property of elites so as to reduce their status, making their lower strata blend into the middle classes or gentry. For example the Civil War 4T stripped Southern elites of three fifths of their wealth by emancipation, converting an American aristocracy into a mere gentry.

The Depression and WW II 4T used high taxes on top elites, legalization of labor actions and wartime "command economy" policies to reduce elite incomes substantially, converting their lower tier members into mere upper middle class.

Something along these lines must happen during this turning for it to be a 4T.  If it doesn't happen, then it is not a 4T. Can anyone make a case for how elite reduction along the lines of what I described above could happen in today's world (I don't think Trump is going to emulate William the Conqueror).

[Mikebert]

Assuming that Trump cannot address to inequality/elite proliferation problem doesn't mean it can't be addressed or that that there cannot be a 4T.  What this says is that Prophets (grey champions) who came of age during a New Consciousness Awakening (e.g. Trump, Clinton. Sanders, Eric) are not going to be involved in the 4T.  That is, there will be no attempts to bring about "Pepperland" a cultural reference I (a late Boomer) had to google to see wtf it meant.

Should this problem be addressed later (making it  4T) it is not going to be addressed by people who get the Pepperland reference. And so there will be no feedback from a New Consciousness Awakening on this 4T.

Suppose a resolution occurs in the mid-2020's.  I looked up a list of up-and-coming Democrats and saw Gina Raimondo (b1971) the only governor. Someone seen as a possible future leader is Kirsten Gillibrand (b1966).  Both are core GenX. Republican counterparts will be like-aged.  The early 2020's will see Xers become to dominant faction in power.  The Boomer era will pass without a GC, just as the Silents never got a president (Bernie was their last shot--like Bob Dole for the GIs).  If the 4T issues get resolved, it is going to be done by Xers, like in old days (before the American Revolution).

The GC role seems to be a thing of the past.

[Warren Dew]

I would note that Strauss and Howe date the second turning from the mid sixties to the mid eighties, so it includes the Reagan revolution as much as it does the Vietnam protests.

Before we figure out how the elites are reduced, we need to figure out who the elites are. I think if we identify them as people like Zuckerberg and Cook and Musk, we could easily envision Trump taking governmental action to undercut their empires, for example by creating a national social media infrastructure along the lines of the post office. If they are Goldman Sachs bankers, it's possible that riots could result in their homes being burned down and many being killed, and while it currently seems unlikely, such riots could grow out of BLM protests and the current antidemocracy protests.

Mikebert, who do you think the elites are?

[Mikebert]

(11-11-2016, 03:43 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: I would note that Strauss and Howe date the second turning from the mid sixties to the mid eighties, so it includes the Reagan revolution as much as it does the Vietnam protests.

Before we figure out how the elites are reduced, we need to figure out who the elites are.  I think if we identify them as people like Zuckerberg and Cook and Musk, we could easily envision Trump taking governmental action to undercut their empires, for example by creating a national social media infrastructure along the lines of the post office.  If they are Goldman Sachs bankers, it's possible that riots could result in their homes being burned down and many being killed, and while it currently seems unlikely, such riots could grow out of BLM protests and the current antidemocracy protests.

Mikebert, who do you think the elites are?

I was referencing Generations from which the grey champion concept and the Pepperland reference came.  If you look at the extended turning (which goes to 1984) there is plenty of room for someone who came of age then.  But they would not have come of age during the New Consciousness Awakening.  S&H are from that time.  It means something to them. It means a lot less to people our ages and even less to those younger than us. There is no cultural movement that enthused my cohorts in the late 1970's.  There was a political movement (Reagan youth) and a religious reaction (Moral Majority), but the former is not spiritual and the second (like the Fundamentalists last cycle) are planning to move into hibernation.  The first might play a role in a 4T, but it is not going to informed by their experiences coming of age in a spiritual awakening.  They will be a secular crowd.

[Warren Dew]

I got the pepperland reference. I get most of the references that Eric gets, and he's in at least the middle of the boomer cohort, rather than trailing edge.

I think the relevant cultural movements are a characteristic of the awakening; they aren't necessarily brought to full fruition in the crisis. Was England in the 1040s pining for Norman rule? I don't think that's how it works.

I think the grey champion concept is an after the fact romanticization - notice how the original one was anonymous - so talking about it as if it necessarily fits the leader at the peak of the crisis is questionable.

Still interested in your thoughts on who the elites are. Presumably that's not going to change between now and 10 years from now if they aren't taken down in the meantime.

[Eric the Green]

Mikebert gets it a little wrong, assuming again that a 4T is supposed to work out well, and a new consciousness is put into practice in the 4T. That is how it works if a 4T is successful. But we have decided at least for now to make it unsuccessful. Trump's election guarantees that. The "new consciousness" was split, and the faction coming into charge now (again) is represented by Ronald Reagan's speech for Goldwater in 1964. So, there's a fight between all the factions aroused since the 2T. Who wins is not clear at this point. But it certainly fits the definition of a crisis, for sure. Strauss and Howe are vindicated to that extent. The battle is on, and both astrology and the double rhythm seaculum theory confirm that this is Civil War II. We're on our way.

Just as you guys said, the danger of more economic collapse has been heightened. That's a crisis. I give you credit; my optimism may have been wrong. A regeneracy does not have to look like it did in 1933. It may look like it did in 1861, after more than a decade of trouble and evasion. And if we are declining, as almost everybody here but me has been saying up until now, then the regeneracy does not have to be progressive or positive at all. It could well be 1933, but 1933 in Nazi Germany. Make American Great Again! Down we go.

The Boomers are going to be in their 70s or above in the 2020s. It's hard to believe. Some of us will still be around, and it only takes one to emerge to keep the GC myth alive. It doesn't have to come from the up and coming ones either. But who knows. What seems sure is that the fights and ideas surrounding the 2T are not only still around, they have been heightened. The social justice issues are back and the maligned SJWs are now out in force, as politically correct as ever. The environment will be under assault as never before, and the issues of war and peace are front and center. Poverty is increasing as the oligarchy reigns. All the issues of the 2T remain unresolved. The fight is on. So it doesn't matter if the boomers are leading the battles or not. The issues remain the same. The attacks and defenses between Amerikkka and its protesters is the same game as in 1968. And the same materialism, lack of sensitivity, lack of spirituality is behind it all; the root of Amerikkka's sickness. So Pepperland is still at issue too, whether the original Pepperlanders are still around or not. Just as the original Reaganoids are not around now, but his ideology still predominates. The mistakes of our neglect will force some people to look anew at the materialist wasteland in all its aspects. I may be wrong, but severe sickness demands a cure, and some people will look for it. And it's been put out there for anyone who looks. The issues are still the issues, and Trump has brought them all back for the 4T's duration.

[noway2]

(11-11-2016, 04:18 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: A regeneracy does not have to look like it did in 1933. It may look like it did in 1861, after more than a decade of trouble and evasion. And if we are declining, as almost everybody here but me has been saying up until now, then the regeneracy does not have to be progressive or positive at all. It could well be 1933, but 1933 in Nazi Germany. Make American Great Again! Down we go.

It is my understanding that a regeneracy, which I have been trying to consult the oracle on and better understand because I believe it is well underway with this election, is where the collective psyche takes hold and the patterns that will shape the coming crisis are formed with the pieces being put out on the playing board. 

I find it interesting that you say it doesn't have to be positive or more specifically, "progressive" because personally I do not find a lot of "progressive" philosophy to be a positive.  I believe a lot of what made this nation "great" in the sense that most think of it, is that people had the opportunity to make something of themselves, for themselves, by themselves.  This is in contrast to what I see as the progressive which to me looks like an attempt to equalize the outcome through the force of government, which to me is very much the opposite of the American spirit.  To me the "progressive" result can be seen in Europe and I really don't like it and it is not what I want America to become.

I get that you live in CA as do my in laws and I've been there and I understand that the fundamental philosophies are different and incompatible.

[Odin]

I thunk S&H misunderstood the nature of the last 2T by overemphasizing the stereotypical hippie countercultural stuff Eric loves so much, which caused them to completely miss the greater trend the 2T inaugurated, that of increasing popular opposition to everything "establishment", and increasing resentment against having their lives controlled by paternalistic social-engineering. The Counterculture on the Left and the anti-government rage against the "Nanny State" on the Right are one in the same thing, the rejection of the social trends of the Great Power Saeculum, which had favored increasing centralization and control of society by technocrats.

The Millennial Saeculum can be summed up by "I am not a number, I am a free man!"

[Warren Dew]

I agree, Odin, though I'm curious if Mikebert does.

I also agree with noway2, but I'm sure that's something that Eric and I will have to agree to disagree on.

[Eric the Green]

(11-11-2016, 04:37 PM)Odin Wrote: I thunk S&H misunderstood the nature of the last 2T by overemphasizing the stereotypical hippie countercultural stuff Eric loves so much, which caused them to completely miss the greater trend the 2T inaugurated, that of increasing popular opposition to everything "establishment", and increasing resentment against having their lives controlled by paternalistic social-engineering. The Counterculture on the Left and the anti-government rage against the "Nanny State" on the Right are one in the same thing, the rejection of the social trends of the Great Power Saeculum, which had favored increasing centralization and control of society by technocrats.

The Millennial Saeculum can be summed up by "I am not a number, I am a free man!"

https://youtu.be/nGzkchO0t1c?t=2m57s

Yes indeed. But what if, The Prisoner was my favorite show?

It's easy to get things confused, and mix up today's racist or semi-racist libertarians with the counter-cultural opposition to the depersonalizing technocracy that Patrick McGoohan railed against. And for the oligarchy to exploit racist resentments and harness them to keep themselves in power. The oligarchy-- who doesn't want "every aspect of their lives controlled by paternalistic social-engineering"-- and who resist having their ill-gotten robbery taxed and regulated so that the rest of us are at their mercy as they pollute and destroy the world for their own greed.

[Odin]

(11-11-2016, 06:12 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: https://youtu.be/nGzkchO0t1c?t=2m57s

Yes indeed. But what if, The Prisoner was my favorite show?

It's easy to get things confused, and mix up today's racist or semi-racist libertarians with the counter-cultural opposition to the depersonalizing technocracy that Patrick McGoohan railed against. And for the oligarchy to exploit racist resentments and harness them to keep themselves in power. The oligarchy-- who doesn't want "every aspect of their lives controlled by paternalistic social-engineering"-- and who resist having their ill-gotten robbery taxed and regulated so that the rest of us are at their mercy as they pollute and destroy the world for their own greed.

As usual, Eric, you have missed the point. These people want to live their lives in their communities the way they want to and don't like it when people from the Big City come and tell them what to do "for their own good", they don't want to be forced into some scheme of how society "should be" formulated by people far away who think they are just a bunch of dumb hicks whose opinions, beliefs, and values don't matter. That business interests and televangelist hucksters have tapped into those resentments for their own selfish ends does not make those resentments any less valid.

And your blind partisanship is showing by how you think it's only the GOP that is under the thumb of the "oligarchs", there are tons of Wall Street financiers and Silicon Valley Tech billionaires who are Democrats

[pbrower2a]

(11-11-2016, 03:43 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: I would note that Strauss and Howe date the second turning from the mid sixties to the mid eighties, so it includes the Reagan revolution as much as it does the Vietnam protests.

Before we figure out how the elites are reduced, we need to figure out who the elites are.  I think if we identify them as people like Zuckerberg and Cook and Musk, we could easily envision Trump taking governmental action to undercut their empires, for example by creating a national social media infrastructure along the lines of the post office.  If they are Goldman Sachs bankers, it's possible that riots could result in their homes being burned down and many being killed, and while it currently seems unlikely, such riots could grow out of BLM protests and the current antidemocracy protests.

Mikebert, who do you think the elites are?

So who are those elites?

As a rule those elite4s are expensive to maintain, and the larger that they are the more economic hardships they impose upon the common man -- and make the social order untenable.

1. Intellectual dominators -- the shamans of hunter-gatherer societies, the priests and scribes of early civilization, corporate lawyers, ad men, political operatives including lobbyists, televangelists in modern times

2. Big landowners. Such people had the power in feudal society, the King being the biggest of all landowners and thus the most powerful. They have become the planters and corporate farmers of modern times... and the owners of large tracts of urban rentals, Donald trump is a prime example of the urban landlord.

3. Industrialists and financiers. Mostly a 19th-century and later phenomenon.

4. Bureaucratic and managerial elites. Marx missed the power of bureaucratic elites in 'socialist' societies -- and the nomenklatura of "socialist" states became no less exploitative than the old aristocrats and capitalists. Executives paid very well to treat subordinates badly form a capitalist version of the Soviet nomenklatura.

5. Organized crime.

...It's hard to predict  who would be among the first to be put before the firing squads of 'revolutionary' justice in the wake of an overthrow of economic elites that the masses decide that they can live without. Violent revolutions arise when the masses get the means to cull out the elites that they believe that they no longer need -- typically when the masses find that the exactions of those classes make life itself precarious. That might correspond with crop failures, military collapses, or overpopulation.

The elites rarely step down for the good of Humanity. They get cast out and singled out for extermination.

[Warren Dew]

Names, please.

[Eric the Green]

(11-11-2016, 09:01 PM)Odin Wrote:

(11-11-2016, 06:12 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: https://youtu.be/nGzkchO0t1c?t=2m57s

Yes indeed. But what if, The Prisoner was my favorite show?

It's easy to get things confused, and mix up today's racist or semi-racist libertarians with the counter-cultural opposition to the depersonalizing technocracy that Patrick McGoohan railed against. And for the oligarchy to exploit racist resentments and harness them to keep themselves in power. The oligarchy-- who doesn't want "every aspect of their lives controlled by paternalistic social-engineering"-- and who resist having their ill-gotten robbery taxed and regulated so that the rest of us are at their mercy as they pollute and destroy the world for their own greed.

As usual, Eric, you have missed the point. These people want to live their lives in their communities the way they want to and don't like it when people from the Big City come and tell them what to do "for their own good", they don't want to be forced into some scheme of how society "should be" formulated by people far away who think they are just a bunch of dumb hicks whose opinions, beliefs, and values don't matter. That business interests and televangelist hucksters have tapped into those resentments for their own selfish ends does not make those resentments any less valid.

That image of big city folks telling rural/small town communities what to do for their own good, is a myth propagated by people in your kind of communities because it makes them feel good about their conditions which they don't understand. What specifically are big city folk actually doing to these communities that they resent? Passing gun control in their own cities and blue states? Or what, specifically?

Quote:And your blind partisanship is showing by how you think it's only the GOP that is under the thumb of the "oligarchs", there are tons of Wall Street financiers and Silicon Valley Tech billionaires who are Democrats

You missed the point. The Republican policies give tax breaks and take away regulations that allow the rich and powerful to get stronger and do what they want to harm the people. That's simple, and you know that, and that's all there is to it.

The Democratic programs that cost higher taxes and regulate more have nothing to do with "interfering in peoples' lives." It's interfering with the wealth and power of the wealthy elites. So why do the rural folks buy into it and vote for these slogans, then? Because "business interests and televangelist hucksters have tapped into those resentments for their own selfish ends." What the business interests and evangelists do is the cause of their problems, but they are too provincial and too busy to get informed and see this.

I understand that they might be confused, and believe these Reaganoid slogans about freedom. They are self-reliant and traditional folks. They don't know The Prisoner or Patrick McGoohan. But they know what "freedom" is supposed to mean. So it's easy for big business to fool them into believing that giving freedom to the "job creaters" means giving THEM freedom too. I'm sorry, but I think they should know better. It's not all that hard. So I don't sympathize with their vote, which perpetuates their own problems, (and mine, incidentally), although I sympathize with their plight in this Reaganoid society which created it.

[Galen]

(11-11-2016, 09:01 PM)Odin Wrote:

(11-11-2016, 06:12 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: https://youtu.be/nGzkchO0t1c?t=2m57s

Yes indeed. But what if, The Prisoner was my favorite show?

It's easy to get things confused, and mix up today's racist or semi-racist libertarians with the counter-cultural opposition to the depersonalizing technocracy that Patrick McGoohan railed against. And for the oligarchy to exploit racist resentments and harness them to keep themselves in power. The oligarchy-- who doesn't want "every aspect of their lives controlled by paternalistic social-engineering"-- and who resist having their ill-gotten robbery taxed and regulated so that the rest of us are at their mercy as they pollute and destroy the world for their own greed.

As usual, Eric, you have missed the point. These people want to live their lives in their communities the way they want to and don't like it when people from the Big City come and tell them what to do "for their own good", they don't want to be forced into some scheme of how society "should be" formulated by people far away who think they are just a bunch of dumb hicks whose opinions, beliefs, and values don't matter. That business interests and televangelist hucksters have tapped into those resentments for their own selfish ends does not make those resentments any less valid.

You are right about this.

[pbrower2a]

(11-12-2016, 03:34 AM)Galen Wrote:

(11-11-2016, 09:01 PM)Odin Wrote:

(11-11-2016, 06:12 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: https://youtu.be/nGzkchO0t1c?t=2m57s

Yes indeed. But what if, The Prisoner was my favorite show?

It's easy to get things confused, and mix up today's racist or semi-racist libertarians with the counter-cultural opposition to the depersonalizing technocracy that Patrick McGoohan railed against. And for the oligarchy to exploit racist resentments and harness them to keep themselves in power. The oligarchy-- who doesn't want "every aspect of their lives controlled by paternalistic social-engineering"-- and who resist having their ill-gotten robbery taxed and regulated so that the rest of us are at their mercy as they pollute and destroy the world for their own greed.

As usual, Eric, you have missed the point. These people want to live their lives in their communities the way they want to and don't like it when people from the Big City come and tell them what to do "for their own good", they don't want to be forced into some scheme of how society "should be" formulated by people far away who think they are just a bunch of dumb hicks whose opinions, beliefs, and values don't matter. That business interests and televangelist hucksters have tapped into those resentments for their own selfish ends does not make those resentments any less valid.

You are right about this.

Having been thrust back into one of those rural nightmares, I find myself feeling a freak. The only culture that I buy at Wal*Mart is video, as feature films often cross more lines of intellectual appeal than do pop music, books, and magazines.

I look forward to leaving. I don't feel comfortable with people who vote for Donald Trump because he has promised Supreme Court Justices who will vote to outlaw abortion and same-sex marriage in return for cutting deeply into their living standards because they are more afraid of Hell than they are of economic degradation.

[pbrower2a]

(11-11-2016, 11:52 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Names, please.

Names of what? I'm not compiling any execution list. Violent revolutions do that with little help from people like me. Many of those executed have no clue that they will go to the guillotine because they are often so full of themselves that their exploitation is so wonderful that it could never be challenged.


...Should the system be 'repealed and replaced', then what was done at the end of the Soviet Union would be appropriate: close the legislative bodies and pension off the politicians by paying their remaining salaries. That is one of the more humane solutions available should it eventually be necessary to alter or abolish a system that has gone very bad very fast.

The problem is that ruthless people have gamed our once-democratic system to establish irresponsible power outside the formal system. That must come to an end if we Americans are to get a "new birth of freedom".

Liberty and responsible government? That is all that I want and expect once Donald T4rump starts acting irresponsibly as I am sure that he will.

We would now be better off with a parliamentary system with votes of no confidence that would stop a President from going bad very fast and getting away with it as I expect of a sociopath, demagogue, and kleptocrat who is the next President. We need a divide between a ceremonial President and a real Prime Minister.

The Founding Fathers so despised the corrupt British Parliament that they would never think of a parliamentary system. The British solved that problem with reforms that weeded out the infamous "rotten boroughs"so that representation fits a meaningful geography.

The problem with our legislative branch is that the lobbyists and front groups control the legislators and the People don't. But that has been a problem before Donald Trump.

[Warren Dew]

It's pointless to talk about elites and give a bunch of examples that are irrelevant to today's world. If we're going to talk about them, we should be able to identify them in today's world, either by name or with a clear definition that can be applied to individual circumstances. If we don't know who they are, we can't even know when they're brought down, so the idea that the fourth turning can't end until that happens has no meaning.

[Eric the Green]

The elites are the corporate world and the wealthy.