Trump support, Feb 2022 and later

[pbrower2a]

Republicans still back Trump but don't want GOP to punish disloyalty - CBS News poll




Republicans still back Trump but don't want GOP to punish disloyalty - CBS News poll
By Kabir Khanna, Anthony Salvanto
February 14, 2022 / 6:00 PM / CBS News

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Just over a year since [url=https://www.cbsnews.com/feature/assault-on-the-us-capitol/]the assault on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, Republicans mostly still support Donald Trump, but it appears as if many would have their party put that day behind them and talk about other issues. 
Many in the GOP don't want the party to take a position on it at all. And while the former president remains a popular figure among the base, the entire rank and file isn't entirely falling into line. In fact, a sizable majority approve of former Vice President Mike Pence's adherence to constitutional procedure that day, and few want to see the party punish Republicans it considers disloyal to Trump.





Rather than directly punish Republicans perceived to be disloyal to Trump, Republicans say the party should perhaps take a different approach — like supporting these incumbents' opponents in primaries. And about half would simply accept these other views within the party, rather than punishing them.
Few Republicans want to see the party take a position of outright support of those who forced their way into the Capitol. A 44% plurality of Republicans say the party shouldn't take a position on these January 6 participants, and a similar number say it should be critical of them.
In addition to staying neutral, Republicans by and large simply don't want political leaders to talk about January 6. Instead, it's the economy, inflation, crime and policing, and immigration that top their list of issues leaders should be discussing.




Seven in 10 Republicans say Congress should drop their investigation into whether public officials had a role in the events of January 6. This number has grown somewhat since just six weeks ago — a mirror image of other Americans, seven in 10 of whom want Congress to investigate.

(continued)

[pbrower2a]

The former president's influence extends to the kinds of candidates Republicans want in future elections. A large majority would prefer candidates similar to him in their policies and proposals. Solid majorities would like compatible views on coronavirus vaccines and the 2020 election. On the other hand, only half say they would want candidates similar to Trump in how they handle themselves personally.






One of Trump's ideas that finds favor within the party is his recent suggestion about pardoning people who forced their way into the Capitol on January 6. Six in 10 Republicans would support such pardons, putting them starkly at odds with the rest of the country.

Republicans' sympathetic stance to the January 6 protesters is very much connected to lasting concerns about the election. Many Republicans still say widespread voter fraud and irregularities occurred, a false and debunked claim that at least six in 10 have nevertheless endorsed over the past year.






This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,578 U.S. adult residents interviewed between February 8-11, 2022. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as to 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±2.2 points.


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-repub...l-02-2022/

[pbrower2a]

A week after the election, it looks as if Trump did great harm to the electoral prospects of the GOP. What should have reasonably been the usual large midterm loss for the Party of the President has come to look much like a status quo election. Over the last century an ex-President who has either been defeated in a re-election bid or has seen that he cannot run for another term and win has typically left partisan politics for some time in which his Party can clean up its act. So it was with Hoover, Truman, LBJ, Ford, Carter, and the elder Bush. There's usually good reason for that pol to not push a failed or stale agenda. Public service without a clear connection to partisan politics, as in diplomacy (even Nixon got away with that because he was good enough at it without stepping on any partisan toes).

Nixon was disgraced and knew it. He knew his limitations and acted accordingly. Trump was disgraced, and the partisn hacks still supporting him didn't get the message until too late. (The right time would have been when he tried to blackmail President Zelensky of Ukraine, and on that the partisan refusal to censure Trump showed a craven unwillingness to exercise the wise choice of impeachment and removal. Mike Pence has never shown the erratic conduct of Donald Trump, and in view of the near-certainty of re-electing a President who wants to be re-elected as shown by Reagan, Clinton, Dubya, and Obama. Pence would have been re-elected in 2020 without incident. January 6 2021 would be just another slow news day in America. Nobody rushes the Capitol wearing shirts with images of Che Guevara, carrying Soviet flags, or singing the Internationale (the anthem of the Communist movement). Nobody erects a gallows and shouts "Hang Mike Pence!" We liberals don't do "red fascism"; we would instead be working on the midterm elections to exploit the staleness of the Trump-Pence years. We get a blue wave as Democrats hold all seats of incumbents and flip a few, and make gains in the House that get a clear majority in the House.

Trump out-shouted President Biden on the political scene, which is his wont. That did more harm than good to the GOP. President Biden needed some help, and he found the best pinch-hitter possible in Barack Obama. I see a very good ex-President who sees his patriotic duty in destroying any political legacy of Donald Trump. Obama must despise someone who is the negation of all of his political virtues, and Obama has plenty of them. He is a more convincing speaker than President Biden.

I offer a hint to all conservatives: your next effective President who does not so offends mass sensibilities of moderates will act far more like Barack Obama than like Donald Trump. Trump would be a disaster for liberals if we were foolish enough to let him have a chance to be President as a liberal Democrat. Take away the somewhat-liberal agenda and he is otherwise an arch-conservative in style and substance.

I remind you that Obama's wins are more like Eisenhower wins than like those for any Democrat before 2016. Obama won almost exclusively states that Ike also won despite being from different Parties. Just look!

e can show, for example, how states trend. In this case I suggest that  even if the partisan identities of the states are almost opposite in the elections involving Eisenhower and Obama, the blocks of states involved suggest that Ike and Obama got (and lost) many of the key constituencies in their elections. This, if you are aware of my posting history, is one of my favorite contrasts.

..........................

When all is said and done, I think that the Obama and Eisenhower Presidencies are going to look like good analogues. Both Presidents are chilly rationalists. Both are practically scandal-free administrations. Both started with a troublesome war that both found their way out of. Neither did much to 'grow' the strength of their Parties in either House of Congress. To compare ISIS to Fidel Castro is completely unfair to Fidel Castro, a gentleman by contrast to ISIS.

The definitive moderate Republican may have been Dwight Eisenhower, and I have heard plenty of Democrats praise the Eisenhower Presidency. He went along with Supreme Court rulings that outlawed segregationist practices, stayed clear of the McCarthy bandwagon, and let McCarthy implode.



gray -- did not vote in 1952 or 1956
white -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice
deep blue -- Republican all four elections
light blue -- Republican all but 2012 (I assume that greater Omaha went for Ike twice)
light green -- Eisenhower once, Stevenson once, Obama never
dark green -- Stevenson twice, Obama never
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once

No state voted Democratic all four times, so no state is in deep red.

[Eric the Green]

Attitudes and alignments have shifted since the sixties. There were important political and cultural shifts and changes. I think it's still an interesting comparison of Obama and Ike, especially in how the political label switched in the Obama-era's "blue" states indicated in white on your graph, but Obama was a 4T president and Ike a 1T president. Both were S&H nomads, but Obama is a cusper idealist and that makes a difference. He is capable of visionary thought that inspires; "the hope and change guy". Ike was a wide-smiling confident moderate unifier like Obama who nevertheless appointed more-reactionary cabinet members than did Obama, and whose talk and speeches were practical-oriented and often sounded a bit irritated in typical-nomad "don't bother me and get off my lawn" nomad-elder style rather than middle-aged idealistic and inspiring. Ike's horoscope score was quite inferior to Obama's but vastly better than his "egghead" opponent's.

A yougov poll puts DeSantis ahead of Trump now in some key states. It's way too early to tell, and the campaigns would make a difference. Could Trump run if indicted and jailed? Trump has a higher horoscope score than DeSantis, and so is indicated to be the better campaigner, but Trump has enough baggage that it could over-rule his higher score. Biden outscores both of them, but his age is a factor. His incumbency is still an advantage though, and he is still fully functional, even if "slow" at times to do what is really needed. But his latest speeches show him physically and rhetorically rising to the occasion spendidly. It is great to still have Obama as a supporting character. His score is vastly better than that of Biden, Trump or DeSantis, as is amply demonstrated.

Gavin Newson is waiting in the wings, and he will support Biden if he runs again. Newsom has a lot of work to do to get California back on track, and he knows it. His re-election support declined by a point or so against an unknown opponent, and Democrats could not take back the 2018 House seats they lost in 2020. The 60-40% 2022 Democratic statewide officer victories down the slate is not quite the 64%, 5 or 4 million-vote margin win CA gave opponents of Trump. But Newson is an on-the-ball character who knows how to work and how to speak well.

[pbrower2a]

(11-15-2022, 01:56 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Attitudes and alignments have shifted since the sixties. There were important political and cultural shifts and changes. I think it's still an interesting comparison of Obama and Ike, especially in how the political label switched in the Obama-era's "blue" states indicated in white on your graph, but Obama was a 4T president and Ike a 1T president. Both were S&H nomads, but Obama is a cusper idealist and that makes a difference. He is capable of visionary thought that inspires; "the hope and change guy". Ike was a wide-smiling confident moderate unifier like Obama who nevertheless appointed more-reactionary cabinet members than did Obama, and whose talk and speeches were practical-oriented and often sounded a bit irritated in typical-nomad "don't bother me and get off my lawn" nomad-elder style rather than middle-aged idealistic and inspiring. Ike's horoscope score was quite inferior to Obama's but vastly better than his "egghead" opponent's.

Yes, some attitudes have changed. The big demographic change in the Mountain South was that a huge number of Presbyterians, a sane-but dull sect, got self-righteous and connected to the reactionary Falwell wing of the Southern Baptist church. This is an intellect-distrusting sect that pushes an anti0modern view of the world on science, race, and gender. Both the Mountain (Ozarks and Appalachians) have long been weak areas for mass education by overall standards in America. This area was infamous for Negrophobia; its disdain for slavery during the American Civil War reflected its view that the slaves of the planters who expected the Mountain South to be cannon fodder were the tools of the planter elites. 

If you recall "Granny" (Irene Ryan) from the tacky, but popular, Beverly Hillbillies sitcom, she frequently excoriated "Yankees" of the Civil War. Eastern Tennessee saw the Union armies as liberators and not as oppressors.  Li'l Abner and the Dukes of Hazzard are from here; even if those seem derogatory images to people not from there, the people of the area liked those caricatures. Their shift from Presbyterian supporters of the New Deal to Southern Baptist arch-reactionaries appeared in much of the difference between the Carter win of 1976 and the Carter ouster in 1980. 

Quote:A yougov poll puts DeSantis ahead of Trump now in some key states. It's way too early to tell, and the campaigns would make a difference. Could Trump run if indicted and jailed? Trump has a higher horoscope score than DeSantis, and so is indicated to be the better campaigner, but Trump has enough baggage that it could over-rule his higher score. Biden outscores both of them, but his age is a factor. His incumbency is still an advantage though, and he is still fully functional, even if "slow" at times to do what is really needed. But his latest speeches show him physically and rhetorically rising to the occasion spendidly. It is great to still have Obama as a supporting character. His score is vastly better than that of Biden, Trump or DeSantis, as is amply demonstrated.

"Duce Santis" made a rabble-rousing speech about opposing everything "woke" and praising himself for keeping Florida "open" to fun-seekers who became prey for COVID-19. He has thrown down the gauntlet, expressing to liberals that he welcomes their contempt. It's profit over life, an essential value of right-wing ideologies. "Duce Santis" got away with it because Florida keeps attracting elderly Northerners who would rather die in the sun in the winter than die in the winter gloom of the Midwest and Northeast. Trump reversed the D trend, at least temporarily, among Cuban-Americans in Florida in part by suggesting that they should keep their bags packed so that they can reclaim the old privileged lives of grandparents who lorded it over Cuban proles and peasants. (The problem is that the math does not quite work because there are too many Cuban-Americans who expect to take over such a role, and they would be alien in Cuba after 60+ years of Communist rule. Descendants of Russian Whites did not get their estates back after 75 years oc Communist rule, and the Cuban Communist Party has already ruled Cuba for almost as long as the Communists ruled Russia. He'd like to be America's Bolsonaro except to get re-elected and transform America into a Christian and Corporate State, a nightmare world in which workers are treated badly and are expected to express unending love for their oppression, as there will be pie-in-the-sky-when-they-die as a reward for toiling under brutal management strictly for the greed of a Master Class ... and will burn in Hell for any show of dissent according to that twisted view of the world. 

Quote:Gavin Newson is waiting in the wings, and he will support Biden if he runs again. Newsom has a lot of work to do to get California back on track, and he knows it. His re-election support declined by a point or so against an unknown opponent, and Democrats could not take back the 2018 House seats they lost in 2020. The 60-40% 2022 Democratic statewide officer victories down the slate is not quite the 64%, 5 or 4 million-vote margin win CA gave opponents of Trump. But Newson is an on-the-ball character who knows how to work and how to speak well.

Because California is in no way a swing state, Gavin Newsom gets little attention to the east of Reno, Las Vegas, and perhaps Phoenix. We shall see.

[Eric the Green]

Gavin Newsom (horoscope score 9-2 with Uranus rising like FDR) has the potential to get noticed beyond the Sierras, and has already campaigned against DeSantis. It may happen for real someday, although I don't think 2024 is the right time. DeSantis may have ambitions to be the Bolsonaro of the north, and he has captured the land of elders and cubans, but he does not have the power to take over and lead the Trump cult to victory, unless the Democrats do something stupid like dumping Biden for Harris (horoscope score 3-17) or any other failed 2020 candidate.

Ike (score 17-10) did not preside over the nation of today, but Obama (18-3) presided over the nation that went through the sixties Awakening and then was taken over by neoliberalism and prejudice and the worship of Reagan and Trump. In the sixties, many people rediscovered themselves and their capacity to love and to break down barriers between themselves and others and see their spiritual core that enables a creative and caring way of life. This was called the counterculture, the human potential movement, the new age, the hippies, etc. It was vastly influential, but the reaction to it among traditionalists was strong too. The new sixties culture extended to vastly-expanded rights and opportunities for groups that had been largely excluded or thought inferior in the Americas for centuries, right up through Ike's time in office. And this includes Nature itself. It was a great liberation, and all this represented the Awakening, or what is now labelled "woke". The reaction to this is what Trump and DeSantis have appealed to, stoking the fear of white christian traditionalist patriarchal straight males being replaced by people different from themselves. I have called it the Sleepening, and its advocates are quick to make "woke" a derogatory term and thus proclaim their preference for being asleep.

Obama with his 18-3 score was able to arouse a coalition of the woke, while Trump (9-4) responded by mobilizing the movement of the unwoke whom DeSantis (who has only a 12-10 score) may be angling to take over. So, US Americans face a choice of whether to continue to wake up or remain asleep. The right messengers (like Biden, 16-6) must be nominated by Democrats to carry the message of Awakening so that our civilization may continue, and not be "replaced" by irreversible decline.

[David Horn]

(11-17-2022, 02:34 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Gavin Newsom (horoscope score 9-2 with Uranus rising like FDR) has the potential to get noticed beyond the Sierras, and has already campaigned against DeSantis. It may happen for real someday, although I don't think 2024 is the right time. DeSantis may have ambitions to be the Bolsonaro of the north, and he has captured the land of elders and cubans, but he does not have the power to take over and lead the Trump cult to victory, unless the Democrats do something stupid like dumping Biden for Harris (horoscope score 3-17) or any other failed 2020 candidate.

Most of the Dem leadership is over 80.  That's simply not viable in an era where the emerging votes are from the young, not old farts who needed encouragement.  Biden cannot run next time, or we'll stand better than even odds of having 8 years of Ron DeSanctimonious.  Trump may create a replay of 1912, with Trump in the role of Teddy Roosevelt, but let's not try that on for size.  The fit may be less than it appears.

[Eric the Green]

(11-17-2022, 02:47 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:34 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Gavin Newsom (horoscope score 9-2 with Uranus rising like FDR) has the potential to get noticed beyond the Sierras, and has already campaigned against DeSantis. It may happen for real someday, although I don't think 2024 is the right time. DeSantis may have ambitions to be the Bolsonaro of the north, and he has captured the land of elders and cubans, but he does not have the power to take over and lead the Trump cult to victory, unless the Democrats do something stupid like dumping Biden for Harris (horoscope score 3-17) or any other failed 2020 candidate.

Most of the Dem leadership is over 80.  That's simply not viable in an era where the emerging votes are from the young, not old farts who needed encouragement.  Biden cannot run next time, or we'll stand better than even odds of having 8 years of Ron DeSanctimonious.  Trump may create a replay of 1912, with Trump in the role of Teddy Roosevelt, but let's not try that on for size.  The fit may be less than it appears.

It does not matter if Biden is over 80 or not. If he is the only viable messenger for these times, WHICH HE IS, then young people will vote for him, and have done so, regardless of whether they give him a positive approval rating. The polls are already showing this. Steady Joe Biden MUST run next time; he is the only high-scoring candidate we have, and his speeches recently show he's up to the job of running again. People can tell that my scores are correct. That will be my rebuttal to you again and again. Democrats cannot afford to nominate weak-sounding wonks like Pete Buttigieg or gabby incoherent gals like Amy Klobuchar or flaming tempers like Cory Booker or old crusader rabbit Elizabeth Warren. Biden (score 16-6) can beat DeTramp (score only 12-10) and the Chump (9-4) too.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html

You mentioned 1912, which interestingly is just about the only anomaly in my system's record.
1912: Woodrow Wilson 11-9**, Theodore Roosevelt 11-16 J, William H. Taft 12-8 J/U, SN*

Taft had a slightly higher score than Wilson, though within the margin of error perhaps, and they both had a 4th year Saturn Return problem, but Taft had to run against both Wilson and former president Teddy Roosevelt, who actually had a low score (but Jupiter rising). Taft could not run against both Democrat Wilson and former Republican President Roosevelt and win as a Republican. Trump would have the same problem if he ran against Biden on a 3rd MAGA Party ticket and against DeSantis too. The odds would favor Biden on that one, and he also beats both of them scoring wise.

[pbrower2a]

(11-17-2022, 02:47 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:34 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Gavin Newsom (horoscope score 9-2 with Uranus rising like FDR) has the potential to get noticed beyond the Sierras, and has already campaigned against DeSantis. It may happen for real someday, although I don't think 2024 is the right time. DeSantis may have ambitions to be the Bolsonaro of the north, and he has captured the land of elders and cubans, but he does not have the power to take over and lead the Trump cult to victory, unless the Democrats do something stupid like dumping Biden for Harris (horoscope score 3-17) or any other failed 2020 candidate.

Most of the Dem leadership is over 80.  That's simply not viable in an era where the emerging votes are from the young, not old farts who needed encouragement.  Biden cannot run next time, or we'll stand better than even odds of having 8 years of Ron DeSanctimonious.  Trump may create a replay of 1912, with Trump in the role of Teddy Roosevelt, but let's not try that on for size.  The fit may be less than it appears.

Nancy Pelosi is stepping down from all leadership roles in the House.

[David Horn]

(11-17-2022, 02:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:47 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:34 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Gavin Newsom (horoscope score 9-2 with Uranus rising like FDR) has the potential to get noticed beyond the Sierras, and has already campaigned against DeSantis. It may happen for real someday, although I don't think 2024 is the right time. DeSantis may have ambitions to be the Bolsonaro of the north, and he has captured the land of elders and cubans, but he does not have the power to take over and lead the Trump cult to victory, unless the Democrats do something stupid like dumping Biden for Harris (horoscope score 3-17) or any other failed 2020 candidate.

Most of the Dem leadership is over 80.  That's simply not viable in an era where the emerging votes are from the young, not old farts who needed encouragement.  Biden cannot run next time, or we'll stand better than even odds of having 8 years of Ron DeSanctimonious.  Trump may create a replay of 1912, with Trump in the role of Teddy Roosevelt, but let's not try that on for size.  The fit may be less than it appears.

It does not matter if Biden is over 80 or not. If he is the only viable messenger for these times, WHICH HE IS, then young people will vote for him, and have done so, regardless of whether they give him a positive approval rating. The polls are already showing this. Steady Joe Biden MUST run next time; he is the only high-scoring candidate we have, and his speeches recently show he's up to the job of running again. People can tell that my scores are correct. That will be my rebuttal to you again and again. Democrats cannot afford to nominate weak-sounding wonks like Pete Buttigieg or gabby incoherent gals like Amy Klobuchar or flaming tempers like Cory Booker or old crusader rabbit Elizabeth Warren. Biden (score 16-6) can beat DeTramp (score only 12-10) and the Chump (9-4) too.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html

You mentioned 1912, which interestingly is just about the only anomaly in my system's record.
1912: Woodrow Wilson 11-9**, Theodore Roosevelt 11-16 J, William H. Taft 12-8 J/U, SN*

Taft had a slightly higher score than Wilson, though within the margin of error perhaps, and they both had a 4th year Saturn Return problem, but Taft had to run against both Wilson and former president Teddy Roosevelt, who actually had a low score (but Jupiter rising). Taft could not run against both Democrat Wilson and former Republican President Roosevelt and win as a Republican. Trump would have the same problem if he ran against Biden on a 3rd MAGA Party ticket and against DeSantis too. The odds would favor Biden on that one, and he also beats both of them scoring wise.

The young gave the geriatric Dems Some breathing room in 2022, but they, rightly, expect their turn at bat.  At least the House caucus got the message.  Moving to the youth now would be the right thing to do, even assuming that the White House is lost in 2024.  It has to happen in the next cycle or be a rolling disaster in the following one.  Win or lose in 2024, Biden will be a boat anchor in 2028, and that one we need to win outright.

[David Horn]

(11-17-2022, 06:18 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:47 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:34 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Gavin Newsom (horoscope score 9-2 with Uranus rising like FDR) has the potential to get noticed beyond the Sierras, and has already campaigned against DeSantis. It may happen for real someday, although I don't think 2024 is the right time. DeSantis may have ambitions to be the Bolsonaro of the north, and he has captured the land of elders and cubans, but he does not have the power to take over and lead the Trump cult to victory, unless the Democrats do something stupid like dumping Biden for Harris (horoscope score 3-17) or any other failed 2020 candidate.

Most of the Dem leadership is over 80.  That's simply not viable in an era where the emerging votes are from the young, not old farts who needed encouragement.  Biden cannot run next time, or we'll stand better than even odds of having 8 years of Ron DeSanctimonious.  Trump may create a replay of 1912, with Trump in the role of Teddy Roosevelt, but let's not try that on for size.  The fit may be less than it appears.

Nancy Pelosi is stepping down from all leadership roles in the House.

Pelosi, Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn are all out, and not a minute too soon.  In their day, all were great; this is not their day.  Silents are the wrong people to fight the good fight, and that's up next.

[Eric the Green]

(11-18-2022, 12:25 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 06:18 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:47 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:34 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Gavin Newsom (horoscope score 9-2 with Uranus rising like FDR) has the potential to get noticed beyond the Sierras, and has already campaigned against DeSantis. It may happen for real someday, although I don't think 2024 is the right time. DeSantis may have ambitions to be the Bolsonaro of the north, and he has captured the land of elders and cubans, but he does not have the power to take over and lead the Trump cult to victory, unless the Democrats do something stupid like dumping Biden for Harris (horoscope score 3-17) or any other failed 2020 candidate.

Most of the Dem leadership is over 80.  That's simply not viable in an era where the emerging votes are from the young, not old farts who needed encouragement.  Biden cannot run next time, or we'll stand better than even odds of having 8 years of Ron DeSanctimonious.  Trump may create a replay of 1912, with Trump in the role of Teddy Roosevelt, but let's not try that on for size.  The fit may be less than it appears.

Nancy Pelosi is stepping down from all leadership roles in the House.

Pelosi, Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn are all out, and not a minute too soon.  In their day, all were great; this is not their day.  Silents are the wrong people to fight the good fight, and that's up next.

It was time. Although Pelosi might have stayed on had the Democrats won. Hakkim Jeffries was the right choice, I think.

[Eric the Green]

(11-18-2022, 11:38 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:47 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:34 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Gavin Newsom (horoscope score 9-2 with Uranus rising like FDR) has the potential to get noticed beyond the Sierras, and has already campaigned against DeSantis. It may happen for real someday, although I don't think 2024 is the right time. DeSantis may have ambitions to be the Bolsonaro of the north, and he has captured the land of elders and cubans, but he does not have the power to take over and lead the Trump cult to victory, unless the Democrats do something stupid like dumping Biden for Harris (horoscope score 3-17) or any other failed 2020 candidate.

Most of the Dem leadership is over 80.  That's simply not viable in an era where the emerging votes are from the young, not old farts who needed encouragement.  Biden cannot run next time, or we'll stand better than even odds of having 8 years of Ron DeSanctimonious.  Trump may create a replay of 1912, with Trump in the role of Teddy Roosevelt, but let's not try that on for size.  The fit may be less than it appears.

It does not matter if Biden is over 80 or not. If he is the only viable messenger for these times, WHICH HE IS, then young people will vote for him, and have done so, regardless of whether they give him a positive approval rating. The polls are already showing this. Steady Joe Biden MUST run next time; he is the only high-scoring candidate we have, and his speeches recently show he's up to the job of running again. People can tell that my scores are correct. That will be my rebuttal to you again and again. Democrats cannot afford to nominate weak-sounding wonks like Pete Buttigieg or gabby incoherent gals like Amy Klobuchar or flaming tempers like Cory Booker or old crusader rabbit Elizabeth Warren. Biden (score 16-6) can beat DeTramp (score only 12-10) and the Chump (9-4) too.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html

You mentioned 1912, which interestingly is just about the only anomaly in my system's record.
1912: Woodrow Wilson 11-9**, Theodore Roosevelt 11-16 J, William H. Taft 12-8 J/U, SN*

Taft had a slightly higher score than Wilson, though within the margin of error perhaps, and they both had a 4th year Saturn Return problem, but Taft had to run against both Wilson and former president Teddy Roosevelt, who actually had a low score (but Jupiter rising). Taft could not run against both Democrat Wilson and former Republican President Roosevelt and win as a Republican. Trump would have the same problem if he ran against Biden on a 3rd MAGA Party ticket and against DeSantis too. The odds would favor Biden on that one, and he also beats both of them scoring wise.

The young gave the geriatric Dems Some breathing room in 2022, but they, rightly, expect their turn at bat.  At least the House caucus got the message.  Moving to the youth now would be the right thing to do, even assuming that the White House is lost in 2024.  It has to happen in the next cycle or be a rolling disaster in the following one.  Win or lose in 2024, Biden will be a boat anchor in 2028, and that one we need to win outright.

Biden is our anchor, yes. We need his steady, if slow, leadership and perspective. I think he will run and win in 2024, since we have no-one else. If we did, I would be all in favor of him or her, and it would be the right thing to do. But we don't; just the luck of the draw. The general idea of supporting the rising generation does not apply to this specific office of the presidency in this specific time, given the personnel available. Many Boomers and Gen Xers who could have been great leaders turned away from politics in the USA, and this has limited our choices. Biden must run and win in 2024 or the saeculum is probably over and the US and the world fades away. Every 4T is a battle for the existence and the soul of the country. Joe gets it.

[Classic-Xer]

(11-18-2022, 04:02 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-18-2022, 11:38 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:47 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:34 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Gavin Newsom (horoscope score 9-2 with Uranus rising like FDR) has the potential to get noticed beyond the Sierras, and has already campaigned against DeSantis. It may happen for real someday, although I don't think 2024 is the right time. DeSantis may have ambitions to be the Bolsonaro of the north, and he has captured the land of elders and cubans, but he does not have the power to take over and lead the Trump cult to victory, unless the Democrats do something stupid like dumping Biden for Harris (horoscope score 3-17) or any other failed 2020 candidate.

Most of the Dem leadership is over 80.  That's simply not viable in an era where the emerging votes are from the young, not old farts who needed encouragement.  Biden cannot run next time, or we'll stand better than even odds of having 8 years of Ron DeSanctimonious.  Trump may create a replay of 1912, with Trump in the role of Teddy Roosevelt, but let's not try that on for size.  The fit may be less than it appears.

It does not matter if Biden is over 80 or not. If he is the only viable messenger for these times, WHICH HE IS, then young people will vote for him, and have done so, regardless of whether they give him a positive approval rating. The polls are already showing this. Steady Joe Biden MUST run next time; he is the only high-scoring candidate we have, and his speeches recently show he's up to the job of running again. People can tell that my scores are correct. That will be my rebuttal to you again and again. Democrats cannot afford to nominate weak-sounding wonks like Pete Buttigieg or gabby incoherent gals like Amy Klobuchar or flaming tempers like Cory Booker or old crusader rabbit Elizabeth Warren. Biden (score 16-6) can beat DeTramp (score only 12-10) and the Chump (9-4) too.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html

You mentioned 1912, which interestingly is just about the only anomaly in my system's record.
1912: Woodrow Wilson 11-9**, Theodore Roosevelt 11-16 J, William H. Taft 12-8 J/U, SN*

Taft had a slightly higher score than Wilson, though within the margin of error perhaps, and they both had a 4th year Saturn Return problem, but Taft had to run against both Wilson and former president Teddy Roosevelt, who actually had a low score (but Jupiter rising). Taft could not run against both Democrat Wilson and former Republican President Roosevelt and win as a Republican. Trump would have the same problem if he ran against Biden on a 3rd MAGA Party ticket and against DeSantis too. The odds would favor Biden on that one, and he also beats both of them scoring wise.

The young gave the geriatric Dems Some breathing room in 2022, but they, rightly, expect their turn at bat.  At least the House caucus got the message.  Moving to the youth now would be the right thing to do, even assuming that the White House is lost in 2024.  It has to happen in the next cycle or be a rolling disaster in the following one.  Win or lose in 2024, Biden will be a boat anchor in 2028, and that one we need to win outright.

Biden is our anchor, yes. We need his steady, if slow, leadership and perspective. I think he will run and win in 2024, since we have no-one else. If we did, I would be all in favor of him or her, and it would be the right thing to do. But we don't; just the luck of the draw. The general idea of supporting the rising generation does not apply to this specific office of the presidency in this specific time, given the personnel available. Many Boomers and Gen Xers who could have been great leaders turned away from politics in the USA, and this has limited our choices. Biden must run and win in 2024 or the saeculum is probably over and the US and the world fades away. Every 4T is a battle for the existence and the soul of the country. Joe gets it.

What's the value of the perspective of a senile old man? What's the value of the perspective of a corrupt politician? Biden isn't an anchor, he's a loose rudder that can't be fixed.

[Eric the Green]

(11-19-2022, 10:36 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(11-18-2022, 04:02 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-18-2022, 11:38 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:47 PM)David Horn Wrote: Most of the Dem leadership is over 80.  That's simply not viable in an era where the emerging votes are from the young, not old farts who needed encouragement.  Biden cannot run next time, or we'll stand better than even odds of having 8 years of Ron DeSanctimonious.  Trump may create a replay of 1912, with Trump in the role of Teddy Roosevelt, but let's not try that on for size.  The fit may be less than it appears.

It does not matter if Biden is over 80 or not. If he is the only viable messenger for these times, WHICH HE IS, then young people will vote for him, and have done so, regardless of whether they give him a positive approval rating. The polls are already showing this. Steady Joe Biden MUST run next time; he is the only high-scoring candidate we have, and his speeches recently show he's up to the job of running again. People can tell that my scores are correct. That will be my rebuttal to you again and again. Democrats cannot afford to nominate weak-sounding wonks like Pete Buttigieg or gabby incoherent gals like Amy Klobuchar or flaming tempers like Cory Booker or old crusader rabbit Elizabeth Warren. Biden (score 16-6) can beat DeTramp (score only 12-10) and the Chump (9-4) too.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html

You mentioned 1912, which interestingly is just about the only anomaly in my system's record.
1912: Woodrow Wilson 11-9**, Theodore Roosevelt 11-16 J, William H. Taft 12-8 J/U, SN*

Taft had a slightly higher score than Wilson, though within the margin of error perhaps, and they both had a 4th year Saturn Return problem, but Taft had to run against both Wilson and former president Teddy Roosevelt, who actually had a low score (but Jupiter rising). Taft could not run against both Democrat Wilson and former Republican President Roosevelt and win as a Republican. Trump would have the same problem if he ran against Biden on a 3rd MAGA Party ticket and against DeSantis too. The odds would favor Biden on that one, and he also beats both of them scoring wise.

The young gave the geriatric Dems Some breathing room in 2022, but they, rightly, expect their turn at bat.  At least the House caucus got the message.  Moving to the youth now would be the right thing to do, even assuming that the White House is lost in 2024.  It has to happen in the next cycle or be a rolling disaster in the following one.  Win or lose in 2024, Biden will be a boat anchor in 2028, and that one we need to win outright.

Biden is our anchor, yes. We need his steady, if slow, leadership and perspective. I think he will run and win in 2024, since we have no-one else. If we did, I would be all in favor of him or her, and it would be the right thing to do. But we don't; just the luck of the draw. The general idea of supporting the rising generation does not apply to this specific office of the presidency in this specific time, given the personnel available. Many Boomers and Gen Xers who could have been great leaders turned away from politics in the USA, and this has limited our choices. Biden must run and win in 2024 or the saeculum is probably over and the US and the world fades away. Every 4T is a battle for the existence and the soul of the country. Joe gets it.

What's the value of the perspective of a senile old man? What's the value of the perspective of a corrupt politician? Biden isn't an anchor, he's a loose rudder that can't be fixed.

Biden is not senile, although he's old. Slow maybe, but a steady anchor yes he is. Steady as she goes. And not corrupt. The guys you support are the corrupt ones, and have been for decades. And the former president Biden replaced is as unsteady and corrupt as it gets.

[nguyenivy]

He has just been reinstated on Twitter by, of course, the guy who recently may have made Twitter irrelevant.

[David Horn]

(11-19-2022, 09:02 PM)nguyenivy Wrote: He has just been reinstated on Twitter by, of course, the guy who recently may have made Twitter irrelevant.

Watching Twitter impload would be worth the cost of having the Donald back tweeting away, for a while, at least.