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(12-05-2019, 09:43 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-05-2019, 06:25 PM)David Horn Wrote: The anti-Trump energy in the Democratic Party isn't going to be vanquished by some lame internal battle. It just won't. Now, the battle for the army of independent voters is another story. Who knows how that will play. It's already in FOAK territory, so bizarre is possible. Setting bizarre aside, it's hard to see anyone looking at obvious illegal activity, and just ignoring it. Republicans will swallow hard and back Trump anyway. Democrats will be out in force to do the opposite. That leaves the mushy middle to decide, and a well presented impeachment case followed by a party line vote to acquit should tip the balance against Trump decisively. Should, but bizarre is still out there somewhere.
I think the Republican Senate is licking its chops and preparing to counter the liberal trial with liberal rules in the House with a good old fashioned American court trial with American rules and an American judge. Nope, the anti Trump, anti conservative, anti Republican, anti American, anti social conservative, anti law enforcement energy in the Democratic party isn't going to be vanquished by a trivial internal dispute alone as you say, it's going to be shutdown by those who have seen enough of the liberal bullshit and the liberal games and vote to have the Republican party shut them down and essentially place them on ignore so that some more important American related stuff can be accomplished and properly funded.
Look at the facts of the case and tell me how anyone can give this guy a pass without looking like a sock puppet? He did a lot of this in public, right in front of the national press -- video cameras rolling. What went on behind the scenes has either emerged through the valor of military and civil servants testifying at their own risk, or is part of the stonewalling that will eventually be addressed by the SCOTUS. This already looks really bad. It's going to look a lot worse before it's through.
But for sake of argument, let's say that the Trumpists manage to get their boy reelected. I seriously doubt that this will be with an all GOP Congress, and the knives will then be out in earnest. The vitriol will be at an all time high. If the Senate falls to the Dems, no one appointment will be approved. If the House remains with the Dems, assume the funding for anything Trump will be zero. I'm certain that Trump will be Trump, and may get impeached a second time … and a third, if necessary. If short, no one gets out of that scenario intact.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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(12-04-2019, 10:22 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: What? Absolute number no longer matters to the liberals anymore. What are the liberals going to do when Trump gets the majority of the vote in 2020, wins the majority of the electoral college again, regains the majority of the House, strengthens the majority of the Senate and has the majority of the Supreme Court and the right to pick them too? Right now, I'd say that those unpleasant realities for liberals are more likely going to happen at this point. Are you going to support liberal revolts/riots and support liberal movements to secede from the Union at that point?
Since you've moved to Fantasyland, here's the perfect ode:
When you wish upon a star
Makes no difference who you are
Anything your heart desires
Will come to you
If your heart is in your dream
No request is too extreme
When you wish upon a star
As dreamers do
Fate is kind
She brings to those who love
The sweet fulfillment of
Their secret longing
Like a bolt out of the blue
Fate steps in and sees you through
When you wish upon a star
Your dreams come true!
… or not!
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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(12-05-2019, 10:43 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: At this point I expect the Republican Senate majority to quash an impeachment trial quickly with a swift vote before hearing any testimony or evidence. Mitch McConnell will establish the rules, and I expect the Republican majority to go along with him. The American public will get two diametric cases: the carefully-enumerated case against the President that deprecates him with much derogatory testimony and evidence and a quick dismissal close to party lines. Republicans will stand for this President.
In the general election, House evidence and testimony will be used against the President... and against Senate Republicans seeking re-election. I will not predict individual races at this point, but being connected to bad behavior of the President could be political suicide.
Dude, that's not going to happen. The Republicans aren't foolish enough to do something stupid like that at this point. The Republican base wants to see a real American trial take place in the Senate.
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(12-06-2019, 02:18 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-05-2019, 10:43 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: At this point I expect the Republican Senate majority to quash an impeachment trial quickly with a swift vote before hearing any testimony or evidence. Mitch McConnell will establish the rules, and I expect the Republican majority to go along with him. The American public will get two diametric cases: the carefully-enumerated case against the President that deprecates him with much derogatory testimony and evidence and a quick dismissal close to party lines. Republicans will stand for this President.
In the general election, House evidence and testimony will be used against the President... and against Senate Republicans seeking re-election. I will not predict individual races at this point, but being connected to bad behavior of the President could be political suicide.
Dude, that's not going to happen. The Republicans aren't foolish enough to do something stupid like that at this point. The Republican base wants to see a real American trial take place in the Senate.
Do they? I expect a swift attempt to cover up the misconduct of the President.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(12-06-2019, 01:41 PM)David Horn Wrote: Look at the facts of the case and tell me how anyone can give this guy a pass without looking like a sock puppet? He did a lot of this in public, right in front of the national press -- video cameras rolling. What went on behind the scenes has either emerged through the valor of military and civil servants testifying at their own risk, or is part of the stonewalling that will eventually be addressed by the SCOTUS. This already looks really bad. It's going to look a lot worse before it's through.
But for sake of argument, let's say that the Trumpists manage to get their boy reelected. I seriously doubt that this will be with an all GOP Congress, and the knives will then be out in earnest. The vitriol will be at an all time high. If the Senate falls to the Dems, no one appointment will be approved. If the House remains with the Dems, assume the funding for anything Trump will be zero. I'm certain that Trump will be Trump, and may get impeached a second time … and a third, if necessary. If short, no one gets out of that scenario intact.
I'd say that most Americans understand that Hilary had a bigger legal problem that didn't stop her from winning the popular vote. Did you vote for Hilary Clinton despite hearing all the stuff that occurred with her illegal server, the destruction of evidence and tampering with evidence, her husband Bill's inconspicuous meeting with Obama's Attorney General on some tar mac between flights, James Comey making crucial judgements and decisions pertaining her case that he didn't have the legal authority to do and so forth? What, were you deaf and blind or in a vegetative state of mind while all of that stuff was going on and being revealed as true.
Well, if none that mattered enough to you, why should what Trump did matter enough to me. Me, I have a fairly high sense of common decency but I don't let it get in the way during battles with liberals. I call tell that most liberals aren't used to people who are able to read, adapt and counter liberals with equal kind until they either capitulate or they've been reduced to clinging to the one decent thing that anyone would recognize as a decent thing or simply disappear or opt the protect themselves and their sensitive ego's by placing me on ignore.
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(12-06-2019, 06:09 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: (12-06-2019, 02:18 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-05-2019, 10:43 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: At this point I expect the Republican Senate majority to quash an impeachment trial quickly with a swift vote before hearing any testimony or evidence. Mitch McConnell will establish the rules, and I expect the Republican majority to go along with him. The American public will get two diametric cases: the carefully-enumerated case against the President that deprecates him with much derogatory testimony and evidence and a quick dismissal close to party lines. Republicans will stand for this President.
In the general election, House evidence and testimony will be used against the President... and against Senate Republicans seeking re-election. I will not predict individual races at this point, but being connected to bad behavior of the President could be political suicide.
Dude, that's not going to happen. The Republicans aren't foolish enough to do something stupid like that at this point. The Republican base wants to see a real American trial take place in the Senate.
Do they? I expect a swift attempt to cover up the misconduct of the President.
You are going to be disappointed. You may not be aware of this but the liberal Democrats in the House did what they did with healthcare and used their power to completely remove the Republican from the process again. The last time the liberal Democrats did that, Nancy Pelosi was replaced by a Republican. History tends to repeat itself when people are incapable of learning from past mistakes. Right now, I'm glad that I'm not the one with the representatives in Washington who people are reliant upon who seem to be functioning in a perpetual state of denial. Whatever.
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(12-07-2019, 02:33 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-06-2019, 06:09 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: (12-06-2019, 02:18 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-05-2019, 10:43 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: At this point I expect the Republican Senate majority to quash an impeachment trial quickly with a swift vote before hearing any testimony or evidence. Mitch McConnell will establish the rules, and I expect the Republican majority to go along with him. The American public will get two diametric cases: the carefully-enumerated case against the President that deprecates him with much derogatory testimony and evidence and a quick dismissal close to party lines. Republicans will stand for this President.
In the general election, House evidence and testimony will be used against the President... and against Senate Republicans seeking re-election. I will not predict individual races at this point, but being connected to bad behavior of the President could be political suicide.
Dude, that's not going to happen. The Republicans aren't foolish enough to do something stupid like that at this point. The Republican base wants to see a real American trial take place in the Senate.
Do they? I expect a swift attempt to cover up the misconduct of the President.
You are going to be disappointed. You may not be aware of this but the liberal Democrats in the House did what they did with healthcare and used their power to completely remove the Republican from the process again. The last time the liberal Democrats did that, Nancy Pelosi was replaced by a Republican. History tends to repeat itself when people are incapable of learning from past mistakes. Right now, I'm glad that I'm not the one with the representatives in Washington who people are reliant upon who seem to be functioning in a perpetual state of denial. Whatever.
The liberal Democrats have passed bills that the current Senate will never pass and the current President will never sign. The idea is to suggest an alternative to what the Hard Right now offers, which is basically "Suffer, ye peons, and always remember to smile". The House is closer to having majority support of the electorate than does the Senate or the President.
Donald Trump has nothing to offer but grinding poverty in the midst of ostentatious extravagance. Such is the character of bad aristocrats, and even if Trump does not have a title before his name or an aristocratic von within it he is just as cruel and clueless. The tendency is toward a social-market system, and if America lags that trend it will catch up. High taxes and high services are far better than grinding poverty.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(12-06-2019, 01:49 PM)David Horn Wrote: (12-04-2019, 10:22 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: What? Absolute number no longer matters to the liberals anymore. What are the liberals going to do when Trump gets the majority of the vote in 2020, wins the majority of the electoral college again, regains the majority of the House, strengthens the majority of the Senate and has the majority of the Supreme Court and the right to pick them too? Right now, I'd say that those unpleasant realities for liberals are more likely going to happen at this point. Are you going to support liberal revolts/riots and support liberal movements to secede from the Union at that point?
Since you've moved to Fantasyland, here's the perfect ode:
When you wish upon a star
Makes no difference who you are
Anything your heart desires
Will come to you
If your heart is in your dream
No request is too extreme
When you wish upon a star
As dreamers do
Fate is kind
She brings to those who love
The sweet fulfillment of
Their secret longing
Like a bolt out of the blue
Fate steps in and sees you through
When you wish upon a star
Your dreams come true!
… or not!
Fantasy land? You don't think the Republicans can win back the seats that they lost to Democratic candidates who broke their promises and caved under pressure. Now, liberals can screw over poor liberal woman because poor liberal have no other choice but to accept being screwed over by liberals. Hint: Suburban women aren't a bunch of poor/powerless/timid liberal women. Suburban women are independent women who don't take kindly to being used or taken advantage of. I should know, I do business with them all the time. This isn't the first time independents and moderate Republican voters were burned by Democratic candidates who claimed to be different who caved to liberals and turned out to no better than the liberal Democrats. Dude, the last time that occurred a bunch of 1 term blue dogs bit the dust. I think regaining a slim majority in the house is quite doable at this point. I think gaining whatever million ( a few more million) more votes to win the popular vote is also quite doable as well.
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12-07-2019, 02:06 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2019, 02:12 PM by Classic-Xer.)
(12-07-2019, 12:39 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: (12-07-2019, 02:33 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-06-2019, 06:09 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: (12-06-2019, 02:18 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-05-2019, 10:43 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: At this point I expect the Republican Senate majority to quash an impeachment trial quickly with a swift vote before hearing any testimony or evidence. Mitch McConnell will establish the rules, and I expect the Republican majority to go along with him. The American public will get two diametric cases: the carefully-enumerated case against the President that deprecates him with much derogatory testimony and evidence and a quick dismissal close to party lines. Republicans will stand for this President.
In the general election, House evidence and testimony will be used against the President... and against Senate Republicans seeking re-election. I will not predict individual races at this point, but being connected to bad behavior of the President could be political suicide.
Dude, that's not going to happen. The Republicans aren't foolish enough to do something stupid like that at this point. The Republican base wants to see a real American trial take place in the Senate.
Do they? I expect a swift attempt to cover up the misconduct of the President.
You are going to be disappointed. You may not be aware of this but the liberal Democrats in the House did what they did with healthcare and used their power to completely remove the Republican from the process again. The last time the liberal Democrats did that, Nancy Pelosi was replaced by a Republican. History tends to repeat itself when people are incapable of learning from past mistakes. Right now, I'm glad that I'm not the one with the representatives in Washington who people are reliant upon who seem to be functioning in a perpetual state of denial. Whatever.
The liberal Democrats have passed bills that the current Senate will never pass and the current President will never sign. The idea is to suggest an alternative to what the Hard Right now offers, which is basically "Suffer, ye peons, and always remember to smile". The House is closer to having majority support of the electorate than does the Senate or the President.
Donald Trump has nothing to offer but grinding poverty in the midst of ostentatious extravagance. Such is the character of bad aristocrats, and even if Trump does not have a title before his name or an aristocratic von within it he is just as cruel and clueless. The tendency is toward a social-market system, and if America lags that trend it will catch up. High taxes and high services are far better than grinding poverty.
Why are they doing that when their primary competition/ political adversaries these days are center rights? The Liberals/Progressives seem to be the only fools who don't realize this. Now, the hard Right may be the primary competition out in the sticks or possibly where you live. Hint: If they for whatever reason decide to condemn you to hell and burn you at the stake or round you up and exterminate you or watch as you starve to death, I can say for certain that I won't be there supporting them or cheering them on and I won't be there defending you from them either.
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(12-05-2019, 06:24 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-05-2019, 03:53 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-04-2019, 10:22 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-04-2019, 01:30 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-03-2019, 01:16 PM)David Horn Wrote: You're comparing pumpkins and grapes. Sure, there are a lot of Trump voters in highly populated areas, but the percentage is what's important -- not the absolute number. Likewise, low population areas can only have so many voters, by definition. I live in the exurbs, and it's Trump, end-to-end. That's true of low and high education individuals, I might add. The two closest cities are small-to-medium size, with one being Purple (~80,000) and the other solidly Blue (~110,000). Their burbs are both very Red. I think that's typical.
Right, and in our electoral college system, the Trump voters in big blue cities and counties do not matter. The Trump voters, with their overwhelming majority in rural and small-town areas, turn states red that do not have big blue cities in them, and they have far more clout in the electoral college, because it's set up to favor smaller states. So, the source of the power of Trump and Republicans today, in the Senate and in the presidential elections of 2000, 2004 and 2016, is the rural and small town and small city areas that vote Republican by overwhelming margins.
What? Absolute number no longer matters to the liberals anymore. What are the liberals going to do when Trump gets the majority of the vote in 2020, wins the majority of the electoral college again, regains the majority of the House, strengthens the majority of the Senate and has the majority of the Supreme Court and the right to pick them too? Right now, I'd say that those unpleasant realities for liberals are more likely going to happen at this point. Are you going to support liberal revolts/riots and support liberal movements to secede from the Union at that point?
I might support a Calexit or other secession movements, but riots are not effective. Otherwise, we just keep trying to move the nation forward instead of the backward direction you expect. And I expect our side will win.
True, riots aren't effective with us and don't really have much of an impact on us at all these days.
I was thinking though, given the effectiveness of the Lichtman Keys, and one of them is domestic unrest, that if it happens before Nov.2020 that could turn a key against Trump. So if the blacks get riled again by another police shooting or two, or if some antifas manage to arouse a huge uprising, or just enough demonstrations about gun violence and climate change happen to raise the temperature enough, maybe that could be effective after all if it turns a Lichtman Key!
By the way I would still consider you far right, Classic Xer, even though you are not at today's looney extreme. Anyone who so passionately accepts the trickle-down philosophy that has been rejected everywhere else in the world outside Red America, is far right. Anyone opposed to a fair immigration system and fearful of tax money going to welfare, is extreme right.
It was extreme right in 1964, with Barry Goldwater as the standard bearer. It was known as extreme right then. The problem is that not only is the USA a center-right country to begin with, relative to the rest of the world, it's right wing has gone off the scales and taken over the Republican Party increasingly since then, so that America has regressed instead of progressed since the sixties.
My crystal ball says this is going to change now. But the right-wing has erected formidable barriers to progress that will not easily or quickly be taken down. But taken down, they must be. Many reforms are on the agenda.
I hope we can get a lot more immigrants in our country, despite the walls Trump and the Republicans are erecting; more latinos who will have lots of kids and vote Democratic for a while. And make you squirm and complain, and cause a few of your red states to leave our country through secession, leaving us with a secure hold on the USA.
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The center-Right? We hardly have one. We careen between a center-Left and a Hard Right, between Donald Trump and Barack Obama. The center-Right has its economic basis in small savers and investors who are barely net creditors, people who want stable prices but a strong-enough economic order that allows them to have reliable income that keeps people from having to dip into savings. The big creditors have relatively large claims against debtors... and those people are well to the Right. Think of aristocratic elites whose farm laborers were heavily in debt just to survive and got a settlement at harvest time: not enough to discharge their debt (so they would have to keep working in an unending cycle and eventually commit their children to the vile system). Pay, needless to say, was abysmal.
By the way -- little is more disgusting than a lynching. The last one of which I know involved a unit of the United Klans of America in 1981... a Klan group found a young black man to kidnap and murder by hanging. The crime was investigated, and in the end the fascist pig who tied the rope around the unfortunate Michael Donald and tied him to a tree would be executed in the Alabama electric chair. The legal system looks unsympathetically up-on people who take the law into their own hands.
Besides, if there is a Hell it is for God to decide who goes there. My idea of Hell, a place full of the most egregious sinners of all time (including Nazis and Stalinists) is a place to avoid. If anything, I hope that the Jewish concept of Heaven is true, and that the righteous of all origins go there.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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12-07-2019, 04:27 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2019, 04:52 PM by Classic-Xer.)
(12-07-2019, 02:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-05-2019, 06:24 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-05-2019, 03:53 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-04-2019, 10:22 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-04-2019, 01:30 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Right, and in our electoral college system, the Trump voters in big blue cities and counties do not matter. The Trump voters, with their overwhelming majority in rural and small-town areas, turn states red that do not have big blue cities in them, and they have far more clout in the electoral college, because it's set up to favor smaller states. So, the source of the power of Trump and Republicans today, in the Senate and in the presidential elections of 2000, 2004 and 2016, is the rural and small town and small city areas that vote Republican by overwhelming margins.
What? Absolute number no longer matters to the liberals anymore. What are the liberals going to do when Trump gets the majority of the vote in 2020, wins the majority of the electoral college again, regains the majority of the House, strengthens the majority of the Senate and has the majority of the Supreme Court and the right to pick them too? Right now, I'd say that those unpleasant realities for liberals are more likely going to happen at this point. Are you going to support liberal revolts/riots and support liberal movements to secede from the Union at that point?
I might support a Calexit or other secession movements, but riots are not effective. Otherwise, we just keep trying to move the nation forward instead of the backward direction you expect. And I expect our side will win.
True, riots aren't effective with us and don't really have much of an impact on us at all these days.
I was thinking though, given the effectiveness of the Lichtman Keys, and one of them is domestic unrest, that if it happens before Nov.2020 that could turn a key against Trump. So if the blacks get riled again by another police shooting or two, or if some antifas manage to arouse a huge uprising, or just enough demonstrations about gun violence and climate change happen to raise the temperature enough, maybe that could be effective after all if it turns a Lichtman Key!
By the way I would still consider you far right, Classic Xer, even though you are not at today's looney extreme. Anyone who so passionately accepts the trickle-down philosophy that has been rejected everywhere else in the world outside Red America, is far right. Anyone opposed to a fair immigration system and fearful of tax money going to welfare, is extreme right.
It was extreme right in 1964, with Barry Goldwater as the standard bearer. It was known as extreme right then. The problem is that not only is the USA a center-right country to begin with, relative to the rest of the world, it's right wing has gone off the scales and taken over the Republican Party increasingly since then, so that America has regressed instead of progressed since the sixties.
My crystal ball says this is going to change now. But the right-wing has erected formidable barriers to progress that will not easily or quickly be taken down. But taken down, they must be. Many reforms are on the agenda.
I hope we can get a lot more immigrants in our country, despite the walls Trump and the Republicans are erecting; more latinos who will have lots of kids and vote Democratic for a while. And make you squirm and complain, and cause a few of your red states to leave our country through secession, leaving us with a secure hold on the USA.
A Litchman key would require a large scale coordinated effort and the massacre of thousands of people at one time to make a nation like ours move in either direction. Do you really care about the school children who were massacred or do you care more about adding to the Lichman key effect and moving towards the result you want? Yes, I have shown you signs of being extreme at times and I have shown you signs of uncaring as it pertains to you and your well being and the well being of those affiliated with the system that you obviously support. I have shown signs of being the opposite of what you would expect, what you believe would/should occur, what you believe should/would happen or be the result, how you think people would respond and react as well.
I hate to bust your bubble but I am stronger than you, more powerful than you, more confident than you, more capable than you, more courageous than you, more knowledgeable, more experience and more accepted and more understood and more popular than you are too. Gee, I'm just one of the 60 some million die hard Americans who placed the liberals on ignore and showed up on election day in 2016 and voted for Trump. So, what side of the American iron curtain would most Americans prefer to be on these days. The Quasi Socialist side or the American side? What do you (the Quasi Socialist side truly represent? I say Quasi Socialism, you can say/call it whatever you want and try to defend it and promote it. Me, I have no interest in your buyers or your believers either.
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12-07-2019, 04:28 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2019, 05:20 PM by Cynic Hero '86.)
(12-05-2019, 08:08 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-05-2019, 10:06 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Pbrower, You and Eric especially need to understand that progressives (Supporters of Bernie, Tulsi, Yang, Marianne, Krystal ball, etc.) Supporters and Conservatives are increasingly coming to both hate Establishment Neoliberals a lot more than they do each other. The Clintonistas talk of fighting "red" libertarian/Conservatives politically but are unaware of the resentment they are generating within their own party regarding the the Last primary and likely the Current primary as well. The DNC in its current familiarly known form may not even make it to the actual Democrats vs Republicans phase of the 2020 election next fall; if they pursue the course they are showing obvious signs of doing.
Regarding Impeachment, the DNC is obviously using it as a political cheap shot, which is why they are embracing the laughable idea of a closed-door impeachment. If Establishment democrats genuinely feel so strongly about impeachment and/or grounds for an prerequisites for that process; then why aren't you even attempting to do it the constitutionally mandated way, because that would mean the establishment candidates would have to return to DC to participate in congressional and senatorial review sessions, if that occurs (Bernie would also have to go back to DC, but he already has name-recognition so that wouldn't matter that much to him). Most of the establishment candidates would be crippled in the primary if that happened. The political motivations behind impeachment are quite transparent.
If the DNC screws us, you will face a mass internal party revolt of Millennials, White Moderates, Latinos, Northern Blacks and Asians. The DNC would be left with Establishment White Liberals, Some Neocon defectors and Southern Blacks basically. It would be impossible for clintonistas to even think of defeating Classic-Xer-type "reds" if that happens. Instead you won't even be able to have the option of focusing your electoral weight against solely the conservatives: Because you would have provoked a "Two-front War".
Classic and Kinser can weigh in on this discussion as well.
I think the impeachment thingy going on in the House is needed to insure that the liberal Democrats remain in power and remain the ones in charge of the DNC. The DNC is basically the cash cow or liberal piggy bank they need to have control over and fund everything of value related to liberal's themselves these days and the liberal system of preference that we are seeing first hand these day.
Personally, I don't see the Democratic party coming out of this thingy ( 3T/4T/1T/whatever one believes) in one piece. The southern blacks are different than the northern blacks. The southern blacks aren't as socially/politically coddled as the northern blacks these days. So, I see the southern blacks returning to the party of Lincoln and MLK's values and I see the northern blacks remaining with the party of Obama and liberal values. This is just my take. After two world wars, I don't see us going back to isolationism. However, I do see us eventually withdrawing from several liberal oriented agreements with the UN and see us becoming more of an independent, American first country that has more of a limited role globally.
I partially disagree with how this would come about and the exact alignments you outlined here. What I mean and what and I think would happen is that when the DNC collapses, the DNC Rump would consist of establishment white liberals, some neocons and Southern Blacks. This Party would still call itself the "Democratic Party" and still call its organization "the DNC" but it would be a rump party consisting of pro-establishment constituencies. Millennials, Hispanics, Asians, And Northern Blacks would probably form their own party (probably called the Progressive party or something) and we would have a three-party system for a while consisting of the GOP, the Progressive party and the Rump DNC. I agree with an eventual return of southern blacks to a conservative party but probably not until the next 2T, when that eventually does happen the DNC rump would itself collapse and we would have a two party system again consisting of the GOP and the Progressive Party.
The three Mid-4T to early 2T parties would be:
Conservatives (consisting of the Current GOP Bases of Support minus establishment Neocons like the Bushes and Mccains)
Progressives (Consisting of Millennials, Hispanics, Asians, and Northern Blacks). This would be a strange "entrepreneural Socialist" Type party which would advocate Big Government regarding Policies regarding Moving People from Dependent to Independent Classes but would Probably oppose the Current Entitlement System (which disproportionally awards retirees and Pro-establishment boomer constituencies), Unlike the Rump DNC this party would probably NOT oppose the 2nd Admendment but would support limited gun Control. Like the Trump GOP they would support Economic Protectionism, but adopt a Moderate policy toward Immigration (Probably expel violent illegals and any future illegals, but allow legal immigrants and non-violent illegals already here).
Although it is not overtly obvious yet (because the DNC hasn't collapsed yet), you can get an example of How this progressive party would think based on their internet critques of Current politics. Even though this party doesn't exist yet. Like any political review these days they have their own biases as well however.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6cY-CghyKY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfRT7rs2Ea4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XuYO7OIYB2c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEppmewM-1Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGlyVW_Tp8k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjK8Ghxi5Zk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_B3f9w8F5c
Note that there is very little Chance that Progressives would support establishment liberals if a divorce takes place if one reviews the comment threads in the links as well.
Liberals (Consisting of establishment "limousine white liberals", Neocons, and Southern blacks, Liberal Jews may also go here as well): Would Support things such as Free-trade, wars abroad, Unrestrained immigration, anti-2nd Admendment. These types would tend to demand a return to Clinton/Bush/Obama policies essentially. They would also demand Mass gun clampdowns but will generally be ignored by basically everyone else on that issue.
As Before: All sides are invited to Please issue critiques of this analysis.
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12-07-2019, 05:28 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2019, 05:37 PM by Eric the Green.)
(12-07-2019, 04:27 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-07-2019, 02:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-05-2019, 06:24 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-05-2019, 03:53 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-04-2019, 10:22 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: What? Absolute number no longer matters to the liberals anymore. What are the liberals going to do when Trump gets the majority of the vote in 2020, wins the majority of the electoral college again, regains the majority of the House, strengthens the majority of the Senate and has the majority of the Supreme Court and the right to pick them too? Right now, I'd say that those unpleasant realities for liberals are more likely going to happen at this point. Are you going to support liberal revolts/riots and support liberal movements to secede from the Union at that point?
I might support a Calexit or other secession movements, but riots are not effective. Otherwise, we just keep trying to move the nation forward instead of the backward direction you expect. And I expect our side will win.
True, riots aren't effective with us and don't really have much of an impact on us at all these days.
I was thinking though, given the effectiveness of the Lichtman Keys, and one of them is domestic unrest, that if it happens before Nov.2020 that could turn a key against Trump. So if the blacks get riled again by another police shooting or two, or if some antifas manage to arouse a huge uprising, or just enough demonstrations about gun violence and climate change happen to raise the temperature enough, maybe that could be effective after all if it turns a Lichtman Key!
By the way I would still consider you far right, Classic Xer, even though you are not at today's looney extreme. Anyone who so passionately accepts the trickle-down philosophy that has been rejected everywhere else in the world outside Red America, is far right. Anyone opposed to a fair immigration system and fearful of tax money going to welfare, is extreme right.
It was extreme right in 1964, with Barry Goldwater as the standard bearer. It was known as extreme right then. The problem is that not only is the USA a center-right country to begin with, relative to the rest of the world, it's right wing has gone off the scales and taken over the Republican Party increasingly since then, so that America has regressed instead of progressed since the sixties.
My crystal ball says this is going to change now. But the right-wing has erected formidable barriers to progress that will not easily or quickly be taken down. But taken down, they must be. Many reforms are on the agenda.
I hope we can get a lot more immigrants in our country, despite the walls Trump and the Republicans are erecting; more latinos who will have lots of kids and vote Democratic for a while. And make you squirm and complain, and cause a few of your red states to leave our country through secession, leaving us with a secure hold on the USA.
A Litchman key would require a large scale coordinated effort and the massacre of thousands of people at one time to make a nation like ours move in either direction. Do you really care about the school children who were massacred or do you care more about adding to the Lichman key effect and moving towards the result you want? Yes, I have shown you signs of being extreme at times and I have shown you signs of uncaring as it pertains to you and your well being and the well being of those affiliated with the system that you obviously support. I have shown signs of being the opposite of what you would expect, what you believe would/should occur, what you believe should/would happen or be the result, how you think people would respond and react as well.
I hate to bust your bubble but I am stronger than you, more powerful than you, more confident than you, more capable than you, more courageous than you, more knowledgeable, more experienced and more accepted and more understood and more popular than you are too. Gee, I'm just one of the 60 some million die hard Americans who placed the liberals on ignore and showed up on election day in 2016 and voted for Trump. So, what side of the American iron curtain would most Americans prefer to be on these days. The Quasi Socialist side or the American side? What do you (the Quasi Socialist side) truly represent? I say Quasi Socialism, you can say/call it whatever you want and try to defend it and promote it. Me, I have no interest in your buyers or your believers either.
I don't think it takes such a massacre to turn the "domestic unrest" key. I'm not sure what it takes. I have stated here and elsewhere many times that gun massacres will continue to increase as long as meaningful gun control is not enacted, which it hasn't been. So it's not a matter of what I want; I want gun control and bans of semi-automatic weapons and an end to massacres, but obviously that's not going to happen this year, and so the question is whether a mass uprising even surpassing the march for our lives will arise from further massacres that would be enough to turn the Lichtman Key, or other uprisings against such things as police shootings, climate change and so on, which as long as Trump and the Republicans control our government will continue to get exponentially worse, and if this Key IS turned it could end the reign of Trump and the Republicans which would in fact be the first and most-necessary step toward ending these outrages. But I don't think riots will convince the convinced Republican voters such as yourself to change sides or make any change; it will be up to a few independent voters to make that change, seeing how fast the country is going downhill, and this means Lichtman Keys turning.
I don't know if it will happen. It could happen, but I am not on the record predicting it to happen in 2020. So it will be no use for you to crow on November 4th 2020 that you were right and your side won instead of mine, because I have not made any such prediction that my side will win in 2020 to begin with.
I am the true American, because the true Americans now are the Quasi-Socialists and Greens and liberals of all stripes, while your side has betrayed everything this USA is supposed to represent at its core. If you are stronger than me, congratulations. The only issue is whether enough swing voters in those 3 normally-blue states in the upper mid-west come back to their senses and have "buyers" remorse of what they did to America in 2016. You are not one of those voters in one of those states, and there's nothing you can do about that.
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12-07-2019, 05:32 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2019, 05:40 PM by Cynic Hero '86.)
(12-07-2019, 05:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-07-2019, 04:27 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-07-2019, 02:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-05-2019, 06:24 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-05-2019, 03:53 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I might support a Calexit or other secession movements, but riots are not effective. Otherwise, we just keep trying to move the nation forward instead of the backward direction you expect. And I expect our side will win.
True, riots aren't effective with us and don't really have much of an impact on us at all these days.
I was thinking though, given the effectiveness of the Lichtman Keys, and one of them is domestic unrest, that if it happens before Nov.2020 that could turn a key against Trump. So if the blacks get riled again by another police shooting or two, or if some antifas manage to arouse a huge uprising, or just enough demonstrations about gun violence and climate change happen to raise the temperature enough, maybe that could be effective after all if it turns a Lichtman Key!
By the way I would still consider you far right, Classic Xer, even though you are not at today's looney extreme. Anyone who so passionately accepts the trickle-down philosophy that has been rejected everywhere else in the world outside Red America, is far right. Anyone opposed to a fair immigration system and fearful of tax money going to welfare, is extreme right.
It was extreme right in 1964, with Barry Goldwater as the standard bearer. It was known as extreme right then. The problem is that not only is the USA a center-right country to begin with, relative to the rest of the world, it's right wing has gone off the scales and taken over the Republican Party increasingly since then, so that America has regressed instead of progressed since the sixties.
My crystal ball says this is going to change now. But the right-wing has erected formidable barriers to progress that will not easily or quickly be taken down. But taken down, they must be. Many reforms are on the agenda.
I hope we can get a lot more immigrants in our country, despite the walls Trump and the Republicans are erecting; more latinos who will have lots of kids and vote Democratic for a while. And make you squirm and complain, and cause a few of your red states to leave our country through secession, leaving us with a secure hold on the USA.
A Litchman key would require a large scale coordinated effort and the massacre of thousands of people at one time to make a nation like ours move in either direction. Do you really care about the school children who were massacred or do you care more about adding to the Lichman key effect and moving towards the result you want? Yes, I have shown you signs of being extreme at times and I have shown you signs of uncaring as it pertains to you and your well being and the well being of those affiliated with the system that you obviously support. I have shown signs of being the opposite of what you would expect, what you believe would/should occur, what you believe should/would happen or be the result, how you think people would respond and react as well.
I hate to bust your bubble but I am stronger than you, more powerful than you, more confident than you, more capable than you, more courageous than you, more knowledgeable, more experienced and more accepted and more understood and more popular than you are too. Gee, I'm just one of the 60 some million die hard Americans who placed the liberals on ignore and showed up on election day in 2016 and voted for Trump. So, what side of the American iron curtain would most Americans prefer to be on these days. The Quasi Socialist side or the American side? What do you (the Quasi Socialist side truly represent? I say Quasi Socialism, you can say/call it whatever you want and try to defend it and promote it. Me, I have no interest in your buyers or your believers either.
I don't think it takes such a massacre to turn the "domestic unrest" key. I'm not sure what it takes. I have stated here and elsewhere many times that gun massacres will continue to increase as long as meaningful gun control is not enacted, which it hasn't been. So it's not a matter of what I want; I want gun control and bans of semi-automatic weapons and an end to massacres, but obviously that's not going to happen this year, and so the question is whether a mass uprising even surpassing the march for our lives will arise from further massacres that would be enough to turn the Lichtman Key, or other uprisings against such things as police shootings, climate change and so on, which as long as Trump and the Republicans control our government will continue to get exponentially worse, and if this Key IS turned it could end the reign of Trump and the Republicans which could in fact be the first and most-necessary step toward ending these outrages. But I don't think riots will convince the convinced Republican voters such as yourself to change sides or make any change; it will be up to a few independent voters to make that change, seeing how fast the country is going downhill, and this means Lichtman Keys turning.
I don't know if it will happen. It could happen, but I am not on the record predicting it to happen in 2020. So it will be no use for you to crow on November 4th 2020 that you were right and your side won instead of mine, because I have not made any such prediction that my side will win in 2020 to begin with.
I am the true American, because the true Americans now are the Quasi-Socialists and Greens and liberals of all stripes, while your side has betrayed everything this USA is supposed to represent at its core. If you are stronger than me, congratulations. The only issue is whether enough swing voters in those 3 normally-blue states in the upper mid-west come back to their senses and have "buyers" remorse of what they did to America in 2016. You are not one of those voters in one of those states, and there's nothing you can do about that.
Sorry Eric, But Most Americans Hate unrestrained free-trade unrestrained Immigration and Unrestrained globalist Polices. They are two Options available for 2020: Trump Gets reelected or Trump Loses to a Berniecrat. If the DNC nominates an Establishment Candidate, one can call 2020 Election right then and there at the convention and it would be a Trump Reelection. Only if a Berniecrat gets nominated would the actual election be actually decided in November. If an establishment candidate is rammed down the peoples throat the the election would effectively be over in the summer and the actual vote in november would just be a formality pretty much. Alot of May not like Trump but will we Choose Him over a Return to Clintonism/Bushism by either voting for Trump or Staying Home/Voting Third Party/Write-in.
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12-07-2019, 05:49 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2019, 06:03 PM by Eric the Green.)
(12-07-2019, 05:32 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: (12-07-2019, 05:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-07-2019, 04:27 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-07-2019, 02:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-05-2019, 06:24 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: True, riots aren't effective with us and don't really have much of an impact on us at all these days.
I was thinking though, given the effectiveness of the Lichtman Keys, and one of them is domestic unrest, that if it happens before Nov.2020 that could turn a key against Trump. So if the blacks get riled again by another police shooting or two, or if some antifas manage to arouse a huge uprising, or just enough demonstrations about gun violence and climate change happen to raise the temperature enough, maybe that could be effective after all if it turns a Lichtman Key!
By the way I would still consider you far right, Classic Xer, even though you are not at today's looney extreme. Anyone who so passionately accepts the trickle-down philosophy that has been rejected everywhere else in the world outside Red America, is far right. Anyone opposed to a fair immigration system and fearful of tax money going to welfare, is extreme right.
It was extreme right in 1964, with Barry Goldwater as the standard bearer. It was known as extreme right then. The problem is that not only is the USA a center-right country to begin with, relative to the rest of the world, it's right wing has gone off the scales and taken over the Republican Party increasingly since then, so that America has regressed instead of progressed since the sixties.
My crystal ball says this is going to change now. But the right-wing has erected formidable barriers to progress that will not easily or quickly be taken down. But taken down, they must be. Many reforms are on the agenda.
I hope we can get a lot more immigrants in our country, despite the walls Trump and the Republicans are erecting; more latinos who will have lots of kids and vote Democratic for a while. And make you squirm and complain, and cause a few of your red states to leave our country through secession, leaving us with a secure hold on the USA.
A Litchman key would require a large scale coordinated effort and the massacre of thousands of people at one time to make a nation like ours move in either direction. Do you really care about the school children who were massacred or do you care more about adding to the Lichman key effect and moving towards the result you want? Yes, I have shown you signs of being extreme at times and I have shown you signs of uncaring as it pertains to you and your well being and the well being of those affiliated with the system that you obviously support. I have shown signs of being the opposite of what you would expect, what you believe would/should occur, what you believe should/would happen or be the result, how you think people would respond and react as well.
I hate to bust your bubble but I am stronger than you, more powerful than you, more confident than you, more capable than you, more courageous than you, more knowledgeable, more experienced and more accepted and more understood and more popular than you are too. Gee, I'm just one of the 60 some million die hard Americans who placed the liberals on ignore and showed up on election day in 2016 and voted for Trump. So, what side of the American iron curtain would most Americans prefer to be on these days. The Quasi Socialist side or the American side? What do you (the Quasi Socialist side truly represent? I say Quasi Socialism, you can say/call it whatever you want and try to defend it and promote it. Me, I have no interest in your buyers or your believers either.
I don't think it takes such a massacre to turn the "domestic unrest" key. I'm not sure what it takes. I have stated here and elsewhere many times that gun massacres will continue to increase as long as meaningful gun control is not enacted, which it hasn't been. So it's not a matter of what I want; I want gun control and bans of semi-automatic weapons and an end to massacres, but obviously that's not going to happen this year, and so the question is whether a mass uprising even surpassing the march for our lives will arise from further massacres that would be enough to turn the Lichtman Key, or other uprisings against such things as police shootings, climate change and so on, which as long as Trump and the Republicans control our government will continue to get exponentially worse, and if this Key IS turned it could end the reign of Trump and the Republicans which could in fact be the first and most-necessary step toward ending these outrages. But I don't think riots will convince the convinced Republican voters such as yourself to change sides or make any change; it will be up to a few independent voters to make that change, seeing how fast the country is going downhill, and this means Lichtman Keys turning.
I don't know if it will happen. It could happen, but I am not on the record predicting it to happen in 2020. So it will be no use for you to crow on November 4th 2020 that you were right and your side won instead of mine, because I have not made any such prediction that my side will win in 2020 to begin with.
I am the true American, because the true Americans now are the Quasi-Socialists and Greens and liberals of all stripes, while your side has betrayed everything this USA is supposed to represent at its core. If you are stronger than me, congratulations. The only issue is whether enough swing voters in those 3 normally-blue states in the upper mid-west come back to their senses and have "buyers" remorse of what they did to America in 2016. You are not one of those voters in one of those states, and there's nothing you can do about that.
Sorry Eric, But Most Americans Hate unrestrained free-trade unrestrained Immigration and Unrestrained globalist Polices. They are two Options available for 2020: Trump Gets reelected or Trump Loses to a Berniecrat. If the DNC nominates an Establishment Candidate, one can call 2020 Election right then and there at the convention and it would be a Trump Reelection. Only if a Berniecrat gets nominated would the actual election be actually decided in November. If an establishment candidate is rammed down the peoples throat the the election would effectively be over in the summer and the actual vote in november would just be a formality pretty much.
Ha ha. You don't know what most Americans hate.
I am not in love with unrestrained globalism; borders don't need to be entirely open, though I do recognize that we are essentially members of one planet and not of one nation. But that does not mean I support so-called free trade; that is part of neo-liberalism, which I oppose. Trade needs to be negotiated so that countries on more or less the same level of regulation and wages can trade freely while those on a lower level need to have some leveling tariffs applied so that our own domestic jobs, companies and workers are not hollowed out as they have been these last 40-plus years.
I would prefer the Berniecrat (preferably Bernie himself) be the nominee, myself. I know there is impassioned dissension from berniebros against establishment Democrats, since I encounter this on facebook all the time. I don't have the confidence to predict that defection by berniecrats would cause the Democrats to lose, or to split up. It seems just as likely, or even more so, that moderate Democrats would defect from a berniecrat nominee. I am just looking at the facts as I see them. And probably neither defection would be decisive to the outcome.
What I learn from my esoteric crystal-ball investigations, and it's therefore something anyone can observe who sees the history and the scores, is that only skilled candidates ever win presidential elections in the USA. So the Democrats's success in 2020, if it happens at all, is going to turn not on whether they nominate Bernie or Biden, but on whether they nominate either of those, or Warren or Buttigieg. The latter two do not have the skills to win against the skilled demagogue Drumpface. It will be the person nominated, not the ideology chosen, that will determine whether Democrats have a chance to win in November. Either Biden or Bernie can win, although whether they will actually win is undetermined at this point.
It doesn't take a genius or a prophet to observe that the Democratic candidates who were skilled, like Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, were the ones who won, while less-skilled Democratic candidates like Hillary Clinton, John Kerry and Michael Dukakis did not. Obama and Bill Clinton are universally recognized as skilled, confident, cool and charismatic candidates who connected with the people. Bernie can fill that bill; Elizabeth cannot. The nerdie policy wonks do not win. That's how it works in the USA.
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12-07-2019, 06:21 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2019, 06:32 PM by Cynic Hero '86.)
(12-07-2019, 05:49 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-07-2019, 05:32 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: (12-07-2019, 05:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-07-2019, 04:27 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-07-2019, 02:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I was thinking though, given the effectiveness of the Lichtman Keys, and one of them is domestic unrest, that if it happens before Nov.2020 that could turn a key against Trump. So if the blacks get riled again by another police shooting or two, or if some antifas manage to arouse a huge uprising, or just enough demonstrations about gun violence and climate change happen to raise the temperature enough, maybe that could be effective after all if it turns a Lichtman Key!
By the way I would still consider you far right, Classic Xer, even though you are not at today's looney extreme. Anyone who so passionately accepts the trickle-down philosophy that has been rejected everywhere else in the world outside Red America, is far right. Anyone opposed to a fair immigration system and fearful of tax money going to welfare, is extreme right.
It was extreme right in 1964, with Barry Goldwater as the standard bearer. It was known as extreme right then. The problem is that not only is the USA a center-right country to begin with, relative to the rest of the world, it's right wing has gone off the scales and taken over the Republican Party increasingly since then, so that America has regressed instead of progressed since the sixties.
My crystal ball says this is going to change now. But the right-wing has erected formidable barriers to progress that will not easily or quickly be taken down. But taken down, they must be. Many reforms are on the agenda.
I hope we can get a lot more immigrants in our country, despite the walls Trump and the Republicans are erecting; more latinos who will have lots of kids and vote Democratic for a while. And make you squirm and complain, and cause a few of your red states to leave our country through secession, leaving us with a secure hold on the USA.
A Litchman key would require a large scale coordinated effort and the massacre of thousands of people at one time to make a nation like ours move in either direction. Do you really care about the school children who were massacred or do you care more about adding to the Lichman key effect and moving towards the result you want? Yes, I have shown you signs of being extreme at times and I have shown you signs of uncaring as it pertains to you and your well being and the well being of those affiliated with the system that you obviously support. I have shown signs of being the opposite of what you would expect, what you believe would/should occur, what you believe should/would happen or be the result, how you think people would respond and react as well.
I hate to bust your bubble but I am stronger than you, more powerful than you, more confident than you, more capable than you, more courageous than you, more knowledgeable, more experienced and more accepted and more understood and more popular than you are too. Gee, I'm just one of the 60 some million die hard Americans who placed the liberals on ignore and showed up on election day in 2016 and voted for Trump. So, what side of the American iron curtain would most Americans prefer to be on these days. The Quasi Socialist side or the American side? What do you (the Quasi Socialist side truly represent? I say Quasi Socialism, you can say/call it whatever you want and try to defend it and promote it. Me, I have no interest in your buyers or your believers either.
I don't think it takes such a massacre to turn the "domestic unrest" key. I'm not sure what it takes. I have stated here and elsewhere many times that gun massacres will continue to increase as long as meaningful gun control is not enacted, which it hasn't been. So it's not a matter of what I want; I want gun control and bans of semi-automatic weapons and an end to massacres, but obviously that's not going to happen this year, and so the question is whether a mass uprising even surpassing the march for our lives will arise from further massacres that would be enough to turn the Lichtman Key, or other uprisings against such things as police shootings, climate change and so on, which as long as Trump and the Republicans control our government will continue to get exponentially worse, and if this Key IS turned it could end the reign of Trump and the Republicans which could in fact be the first and most-necessary step toward ending these outrages. But I don't think riots will convince the convinced Republican voters such as yourself to change sides or make any change; it will be up to a few independent voters to make that change, seeing how fast the country is going downhill, and this means Lichtman Keys turning.
I don't know if it will happen. It could happen, but I am not on the record predicting it to happen in 2020. So it will be no use for you to crow on November 4th 2020 that you were right and your side won instead of mine, because I have not made any such prediction that my side will win in 2020 to begin with.
I am the true American, because the true Americans now are the Quasi-Socialists and Greens and liberals of all stripes, while your side has betrayed everything this USA is supposed to represent at its core. If you are stronger than me, congratulations. The only issue is whether enough swing voters in those 3 normally-blue states in the upper mid-west come back to their senses and have "buyers" remorse of what they did to America in 2016. You are not one of those voters in one of those states, and there's nothing you can do about that.
Sorry Eric, But Most Americans Hate unrestrained free-trade unrestrained Immigration and Unrestrained globalist Polices. They are two Options available for 2020: Trump Gets reelected or Trump Loses to a Berniecrat. If the DNC nominates an Establishment Candidate, one can call 2020 Election right then and there at the convention and it would be a Trump Reelection. Only if a Berniecrat gets nominated would the actual election be actually decided in November. If an establishment candidate is rammed down the peoples throat the the election would effectively be over in the summer and the actual vote in november would just be a formality pretty much.
Ha ha. You don't know what most Americans hate.
I am not in love with unrestrained globalism; borders don't need to be entirely open, though I do recognize that we are essentially members of one planet and not of one nation. But that does not mean I support so-called free trade; that is part of neo-liberalism, which I oppose. Trade needs to be negotiated so that countries on more or less the same level of regulation and wages can trade freely while those on a lower level need to have some leveling tariffs applied so that our own domestic jobs, companies and workers are not hollowed out as they have been these last 40-plus years.
I would prefer the Berniecrat (preferably Bernie himself) be the nominee, myself. I know there is impassioned dissension from berniebros against establishment Democrats, since I encounter this on facebook all the time. I don't have the confidence to predict that defection by berniecrats would cause the Democrats to lose, or to split up. It seems just as likely, or even more so, that moderate Democrats would defect from a berniecrat nominee. I am just looking at the facts as I see them. And probably neither defection would be decisive to the outcome.
What I learn from my esoteric crystal-ball investigations, and it's therefore something anyone can observe who sees the history and the scores, is that only skilled candidates ever win presidential elections in the USA. So the Democrats's success in 2020, if it happens at all, is going to turn not on whether they nominate Bernie or Biden, but on whether they nominate either of those, or Warren or Buttigieg. The latter two do not have the skills to win against the skilled demagogue Drumpface. It will be the person nominated, not the ideology chosen, that will determine whether Democrats have a chance to win in November. Either Biden or Bernie can win, although whether they will actually win is undetermined at this point.
It doesn't take a genius or a prophet to observe that the Democratic candidates who were skilled, like Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, were the ones who won, while less-skilled Democratic candidates like Hillary Clinton, John Kerry and Michael Dukakis did not. Obama and Bill Clinton are universally recognized as skilled, confident, cool and charismatic candidates who connected with the people. Bernie can fill that bill; Elizabeth cannot. The nerdie policy wonks do not win. That's how it works in the USA.
All the existing frontrunner candidates have moved in favor of globalist ways of doing things except Trump. Even Bernie has been cowed compared to 2016. Americans want an American Just like them to be in the white house. We are tired of being ruled by globalist control freaks. We are tired of the tyranny, It doesn't matter if you thing doing something or the other is the "right thing" you need the citizenry's permission to do things. The choice between doing good and evil is not up for you to decide for me; for example it is purely up to me. Globalist establishment control freaks want to impose their view of the world on the mass of the populace.
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12-07-2019, 07:14 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2019, 07:19 PM by Eric the Green.)
(12-07-2019, 06:21 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: (12-07-2019, 05:49 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-07-2019, 05:32 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: (12-07-2019, 05:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-07-2019, 04:27 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: A Litchman key would require a large scale coordinated effort and the massacre of thousands of people at one time to make a nation like ours move in either direction. Do you really care about the school children who were massacred or do you care more about adding to the Lichman key effect and moving towards the result you want? Yes, I have shown you signs of being extreme at times and I have shown you signs of uncaring as it pertains to you and your well being and the well being of those affiliated with the system that you obviously support. I have shown signs of being the opposite of what you would expect, what you believe would/should occur, what you believe should/would happen or be the result, how you think people would respond and react as well.
I hate to bust your bubble but I am stronger than you, more powerful than you, more confident than you, more capable than you, more courageous than you, more knowledgeable, more experienced and more accepted and more understood and more popular than you are too. Gee, I'm just one of the 60 some million die hard Americans who placed the liberals on ignore and showed up on election day in 2016 and voted for Trump. So, what side of the American iron curtain would most Americans prefer to be on these days. The Quasi Socialist side or the American side? What do you (the Quasi Socialist side truly represent? I say Quasi Socialism, you can say/call it whatever you want and try to defend it and promote it. Me, I have no interest in your buyers or your believers either.
I don't think it takes such a massacre to turn the "domestic unrest" key. I'm not sure what it takes. I have stated here and elsewhere many times that gun massacres will continue to increase as long as meaningful gun control is not enacted, which it hasn't been. So it's not a matter of what I want; I want gun control and bans of semi-automatic weapons and an end to massacres, but obviously that's not going to happen this year, and so the question is whether a mass uprising even surpassing the march for our lives will arise from further massacres that would be enough to turn the Lichtman Key, or other uprisings against such things as police shootings, climate change and so on, which as long as Trump and the Republicans control our government will continue to get exponentially worse, and if this Key IS turned it could end the reign of Trump and the Republicans which could in fact be the first and most-necessary step toward ending these outrages. But I don't think riots will convince the convinced Republican voters such as yourself to change sides or make any change; it will be up to a few independent voters to make that change, seeing how fast the country is going downhill, and this means Lichtman Keys turning.
I don't know if it will happen. It could happen, but I am not on the record predicting it to happen in 2020. So it will be no use for you to crow on November 4th 2020 that you were right and your side won instead of mine, because I have not made any such prediction that my side will win in 2020 to begin with.
I am the true American, because the true Americans now are the Quasi-Socialists and Greens and liberals of all stripes, while your side has betrayed everything this USA is supposed to represent at its core. If you are stronger than me, congratulations. The only issue is whether enough swing voters in those 3 normally-blue states in the upper mid-west come back to their senses and have "buyers" remorse of what they did to America in 2016. You are not one of those voters in one of those states, and there's nothing you can do about that.
Sorry Eric, But Most Americans Hate unrestrained free-trade unrestrained Immigration and Unrestrained globalist Polices. They are two Options available for 2020: Trump Gets reelected or Trump Loses to a Berniecrat. If the DNC nominates an Establishment Candidate, one can call 2020 Election right then and there at the convention and it would be a Trump Reelection. Only if a Berniecrat gets nominated would the actual election be actually decided in November. If an establishment candidate is rammed down the peoples throat the the election would effectively be over in the summer and the actual vote in november would just be a formality pretty much.
Ha ha. You don't know what most Americans hate.
I am not in love with unrestrained globalism; borders don't need to be entirely open, though I do recognize that we are essentially members of one planet and not of one nation. But that does not mean I support so-called free trade; that is part of neo-liberalism, which I oppose. Trade needs to be negotiated so that countries on more or less the same level of regulation and wages can trade freely while those on a lower level need to have some leveling tariffs applied so that our own domestic jobs, companies and workers are not hollowed out as they have been these last 40-plus years.
I would prefer the Berniecrat (preferably Bernie himself) be the nominee, myself. I know there is impassioned dissension from berniebros against establishment Democrats, since I encounter this on facebook all the time. I don't have the confidence to predict that defection by berniecrats would cause the Democrats to lose, or to split up. It seems just as likely, or even more so, that moderate Democrats would defect from a berniecrat nominee. I am just looking at the facts as I see them. And probably neither defection would be decisive to the outcome.
What I learn from my esoteric crystal-ball investigations, and it's therefore something anyone can observe who sees the history and the scores, is that only skilled candidates ever win presidential elections in the USA. So the Democrats's success in 2020, if it happens at all, is going to turn not on whether they nominate Bernie or Biden, but on whether they nominate either of those, or Warren or Buttigieg. The latter two do not have the skills to win against the skilled demagogue Drumpface. It will be the person nominated, not the ideology chosen, that will determine whether Democrats have a chance to win in November. Either Biden or Bernie can win, although whether they will actually win is undetermined at this point.
It doesn't take a genius or a prophet to observe that the Democratic candidates who were skilled, like Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, were the ones who won, while less-skilled Democratic candidates like Hillary Clinton, John Kerry and Michael Dukakis did not. Obama and Bill Clinton are universally recognized as skilled, confident, cool and charismatic candidates who connected with the people. Bernie can fill that bill; Elizabeth cannot. The nerdie policy wonks do not win. That's how it works in the USA.
All the existing frontrunner candidates have moved in favor of globalist ways of doing things except Trump. Even Bernie has been cowed compared to 2016. Americans want an American Just like them to be in the white house. We are tired of being ruled by globalist control freaks. We are tired of the tyranny, It doesn't matter if you think doing something or the other is the "right thing" you need the citizenry's permission to do things. The choice between doing good and evil is not up for you to decide for me; for example it is purely up to me. Globalist establishment control freaks want to impose their view of the world on the mass of the populace.
From your past posts, it was clear to all here that you favored tyranny and war. Have you changed your mind?
What if John Lennon was right, and he was "not the only one" who dreamed of a "brotherhood of man" in a world with no separate countries or religions? What if the continued popularity of that song among millennials shows he is still not the only one? What if consciousness is rising among the people that national borders are mere imaginary lines on a map, and that people are just people? What if, therefore, globalism as an ideal is not something establishment boomer control freaks are imposing on the masses, but something the masses favor?
What if globalism could be regulated for the benefit of locals? What if globalism was not administered by corporations and their government lackeys for their own benefit and control, but negotiated for the mutual benefit of the peoples of the world-- including the end of wars between nations and needless racial and nationalist animosity stirred up by demagogues solely to take away peoples' rights and secure power and wealth for the oligarchy, as Trump and his fascist followers like Bolsonaro, Duterte, Johnson, Orman, Erdogen, Sisi, Assad, Duda, Netanyahu, Salman, Maduro and Morrison are doing all over the world now?
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(12-07-2019, 01:38 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (12-06-2019, 01:49 PM)David Horn Wrote: (12-04-2019, 10:22 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: What? Absolute number no longer matters to the liberals anymore. What are the liberals going to do when Trump gets the majority of the vote in 2020, wins the majority of the electoral college again, regains the majority of the House, strengthens the majority of the Senate and has the majority of the Supreme Court and the right to pick them too? Right now, I'd say that those unpleasant realities for liberals are more likely going to happen at this point. Are you going to support liberal revolts/riots and support liberal movements to secede from the Union at that point?
Since you've moved to Fantasyland, here's the perfect ode:
When you wish upon a star
Makes no difference who you are
Anything your heart desires
Will come to you
If your heart is in your dream
No request is too extreme
When you wish upon a star
As dreamers do
Fate is kind
She brings to those who love
The sweet fulfillment of
Their secret longing
Like a bolt out of the blue
Fate steps in and sees you through
When you wish upon a star
Your dreams come true!
… or not!
Fantasy land? You don't think the Republicans can win back the seats that they lost to Democratic candidates who broke their promises and caved under pressure. Now, liberals can screw over poor liberal woman because poor liberal have no other choice but to accept being screwed over by liberals. Hint: Suburban women aren't a bunch of poor/powerless/timid liberal women. Suburban women are independent women who don't take kindly to being used or taken advantage of. I should know, I do business with them all the time. This isn't the first time independents and moderate Republican voters were burned by Democratic candidates who claimed to be different who caved to liberals and turned out to no better than the liberal Democrats. Dude, the last time that occurred a bunch of 1 term blue dogs bit the dust. I think regaining a slim majority in the house is quite doable at this point. I think gaining whatever million ( a few more million) more votes to win the popular vote is also quite doable as well.
Maybe so, but I am quite puzzled about what you think the Democrats did to the suburban women, independents and moderate Republicans to turn them against Democrats in 2020.
I know Trump and his lackeys are shouting nonsense to high heaven (and it stinks to high heaven) about distracting the government from the nation's business by pursuing impeachment. But no-one with any sense at all could be persuaded that the congress has been distracted from anything. Under Trump and the US Republican senate, NO business can be conducted to benefit the nation at all. It is obvious that all they do is block anything that could remotely meet any of the nation's needs at all. So, distracted from WHAT, pray tell?
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12-07-2019, 08:35 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2019, 10:22 PM by Cynic Hero '86.)
Tulsi or Yang could beat Trump, maybe a slim chance of bernie if he reverts to his 2016 positions. Trump would crush any other candidates. Kamala's campaign crashed and Burned because she ran a bad campaign and had shitty political positions, not because of Sexism or Racism. Establishment Liberals, while they claim otherwise; want the 2020 election to be a circus, they don't want an election where the Candidates are debating on subjects such as what is the proper policies the country should take during the next term, such as economic policy, Foreign policy, Armed forces policy or Immigration Policy.
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