What will happen if Trump is elected President

[The Wonkette]

What will happen if Donald Trump is elected President?  This is a poll.

[pbrower2a]

First vote -- overthrown in a coup after he violates the Geneva Conventions in a non-trivial manner or acts in gross disregard of the Constitution.

I predict that he would start a war on shaky grounds, much like Dubya, but he would make dangerously illegal orders. The military will have enough of him as war goes badly, and it will find not wait for the next election. He might be deposed for reasons of health -- most likely mental.

I see him as the worst possible sort of leader in wartime, someone reckless, someone unable to build viable coalitions of allies, someone unable to learn from mistakes. He is out of his league, and his behavior while campaigning shows this. This guy makes George Wallace in 1968 look electable.

The pretext for a coup would be "high crimes and misdemeanors", of which war crimes obviously qualify, that Congress refuses to address. Congress is not obliged to impeach a wayward President. Senior military officers do not want to be saddled with war crimes.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) will then go down the list of persons eligible to become President in accordance with the order of succession and will eventually find someone willing to act as President in according to the Constitution and willing to comply with the Geneva Conventions, and then back off once the JCS finds a President willing to abide by the laws of the land, including the Constitution.

[The Wonkette]

If Trump is elected, he'll be joined by a GOP Senate and House, most likely. After he does some outrageous things, he'll be impeached and the GOP establishment will have their dream President in the person of Mike Pence. That is my dystopian prediction.

[Eric the Green]

Based only on his horoscope, I thought originally there was some chance that Trump could be a modestly-successful president if elected. Given his behavior since then, I find that hard to conceive. In the meantime too, I revised my statistical basis for my horoscope scores with more thorough research, and found that Hillary Clinton's chances improved and Donald Trump's chances declined. I am more confident than ever that Trump will not be elected.

[JonLaw]

The problem in this election is that you have a choice between Hillary, who is going to make things worse and Trump, who may or may not make things worse, but with a significant chance that things could get much much worse than anything Hillary could dream up.

Yay.

[MillsT_98]

I'm pretty sure if Trump is elected, he will be massively unpopular, and his controversial policies will bring him criticism. He may or may not be impeached, but I doubt he will be reelected should his policies prove to be unpopular. If he's elected, he will be a one-term president.

[Eric the Green]

Another possibility is emerging; that the RNC will dump Trump by early September. I suppose Pence or Cruz would be tapped to run in his place. Equally dangerous, and they might do a little better against Hillary. (Not astrologically though)

Actually, from my info the RNC can't dump him; Trump would have to give up. He's not ready to do that, for sure.

The thing about forcing him to resign or impeaching him after he's elected, though, is that he would actually have to commit a high crime or misdemeanor. Lack of decency does not qualify. That's a high bar to cross, especially since the GOP would look the other way at something like torture, or not supporting allies if attacked, or even at financial misdeeds, since the Republicans represent the class that commits them on a regular basis with impunity. Not that the Democrats have been willing to indict these criminals either, in fact.

[playwrite]

Could someone set up a parallel thread of "What will happen if Clinton is elected President?"  I'm not good at the technicals of doing that, but I think it would engender an important discussion.

It's not just that Clinton is looking more and more like she's going to win this thing, it's more about what Trump and some supporters are setting up for the aftermath of a Clinton win.  They are already stating that the election is fixed and her Presidency would be illegitimate, and some have suggested the need for a violent reaction.

While I abhor the violence that could be unleashed, a part of me is intrigued with the possibility of actually eliminating a lot of Right wingnut a-holes.  Spiral of violence?

[Drakus79]

half the country will be running around with their arms up in the air.  The other half will be running around with their arms up in the air while on fire.

[Kinser79]

(08-02-2016, 11:36 AM)The Wonkette Wrote: What will happen if Donald Trump is elected President?  This is a poll.

My prediction...he will be a successful 2 term president with all further GOP and many Democratic candidates (assuming that the two parties survive the 4T--in name of course there is a pattern of the parties changing coats, Lincoln said something about that) all taking on at least some aspect of Trumpism. In short like there was an Age of Jackson there will be an Age of Trump.

This of course assumes that the world doesn't immolate itself in a nuclear holocaust which seems to be the wet dream of many of the boomers remaining on these forums.

(08-02-2016, 11:56 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: First vote -- overthrown in a coup after he violates the Geneva Conventions in a non-trivial manner or acts in gross disregard of the Constitution.

Interesting. Highly unlikely but interesting. I say it is unlikely because were this to happen it should have happened with W. or Obama first.

Quote:I predict that he would start a war on shaky grounds,

Based on what exactly? Trump's rhetoric for the last thirty years has been defensive in nature and seeking to dismantle the post-WW2 empire unless of course Japan, Korea and Germany are willing to pay for their continued occupation of course (which if they act like other humans normally do--and I expect that they will) means the closure of many many many military bases overseas.

Quote: much like Dubya, but he would make dangerously illegal orders.

You mean like the thousands of drone strikes carried out every year of the Obama administration some of which have resulted in the murder of American citizens? Illegal orders like that?

Quote: The military will have enough of him as war goes badly, and it will find not wait for the next election. He might be deposed for reasons of health -- most likely mental.

Of the two candidates for the main parties the one most likely to be deposed for health reasons, or to start a war for that matter, is HRC. After all she is both a neo-con and has known serious medical issues neither of which is true of the non-smoking, non-drinking Trump. The only health decision questions I have about hims is what his bronzer may be doing to his kidneys but he's made it to his late 60s so I'm not worried that much about that.

Quote:I see him as the worst possible sort of leader in wartime, someone reckless, someone unable to build viable coalitions of allies, someone unable to learn from mistakes.

Someone else had that said of him.....Winston Churchill.

Quote:He is out of his league, and his behavior while campaigning shows this. This guy makes George Wallace in 1968 look electable.

Yes because he generates free press and advertisements and totally sucked the air out of the DNC convention with his behavior never mind the email dump made by wikileaks. This leads me to believe that if the DNC's servers were hacked HRC's personal server was definitely hacked and I foresee a wikileaks based October Surprise in his favor.

Quote:The pretext for a coup would be "high crimes and misdemeanors", of which war crimes obviously qualify, that Congress refuses to address. Congress is not obliged to impeach a wayward President. Senior military officers do not want to be saddled with war crimes.

Again, were this likely to happen it would be more likely under HRC since she is a neo-con anyway, but should have already happened under W or Obama. Unless of course your argumentation is that the soldiers and sailors absolutely love being posted to backwater desert shitholes. It matters little if the Generals love the Emperor provided the Centurions and Soldiers do.

Quote:The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) will then go down the list of persons eligible to become President in accordance with the order of succession and will eventually find someone willing to act as President in according to the Constitution and willing to comply with the Geneva Conventions, and then back off once the JCS finds a President willing to abide by the laws of the land, including the Constitution.

Well this would naturally preclude any Democrat, and of course Paul Ryan assuming he survives his primary which isn't looking good for him. Again this also assumes that Trump starts a war to start with and then proceeds to execute it poorly. None of which would be compatible with his rhetoric for the last thirty years.

(08-02-2016, 06:27 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: The USA's first military coup.

Unlikely for the reasons I listed to PBR. That's okay though. Come the 1T I expect the purges will include BLM, SJWs and of course the #NeverTrump crowd.

[MillsT_98]

(08-03-2016, 08:20 PM)playwrite Wrote: Could someone set up a parallel thread of "What will happen if Clinton is elected President?"  I'm not good at the technicals of doing that, but I think it would engender an important discussion.

It's not just that Clinton is looking more and more like she's going to win this thing, it's more about what Trump and some supporters are setting up for the aftermath of a Clinton win.  They are already stating that the election is fixed and her Presidency would be illegitimate, and some have suggested the need for a violent reaction.

While I abhor the violence that could be unleashed, a part of me is intrigued with the possibility of actually eliminating a lot of Right wingnut a-holes.  Spiral of violence?

I'll make a parallel thread, with the same options as this poll.

[Odin]

He'll get impeached.

[Anthony '58]

I voted "Something Else" - and that "something else" is that he will get his anti-immigration agenda through Congress, after which the labor-shortage-driven boom of the late 1920s will be repeated; but then the same thing that happened in late 1929 will happen again in late 2019 (maybe even concomitant with the passage, or the seemingly imminent passage, of a Smoot-Hawley-like tariff bill) - and since this time around the next Presidential election will be held only one year later instead of three years later, there will be a massive realignment in the 2020 election that will rival those of 1860, 1932, and 1968/1980.

[pbrower2a]

Really I don't like going into hysterics about partisan politics, but here we go:

The 14 Defining
Characteristics Of Fascism
Free Inquiry
Spring 2003
5-11-3

Dr. Lawrence Britt has examined the fascist regimes of Hitler (Germany), Mussolini (Italy), Franco (Spain), Suharto (Indonesia) and several Latin American regimes. Britt found 14 defining characteristics common to each:

1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism - Fascist regimes tend to make constant use of patriotic mottos, slogans, symbols, songs, and other paraphernalia. Flags are seen everywhere, as are flag symbols on clothing and in public displays.

"Make America Great Again"

2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights - Because of fear of enemies and the need for security, the people in fascist regimes are persuaded that human rights can be ignored in certain cases because of "need." The people tend to look the other way or even approve of torture, summary executions, assassinations, long incarcerations of prisoners, etc.

Violence at Trump rallies toward protestors is a portent of what I fear could happen to dissidents in America -- and there will be lots of them.

3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause - The people are rallied into a unifying patriotic frenzy over the need to eliminate a perceived common threat or foe: racial , ethnic or religious minorities; liberals; communists; socialists, terrorists, etc.

"They're rapists, they're murderers, they're selling drugs"

4. Supremacy of the Military - Even when there are widespread domestic problems, the military is given a disproportionate amount of government funding, and the domestic agenda is neglected. Soldiers and military service are glamorized.

Yet to be seen.

5. Rampant Sexism - The governments of fascist nations tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Under fascist regimes, traditional gender roles are made more rigid. Divorce, abortion and homosexuality are suppressed and the state is represented as the ultimate guardian of the family institution.

Women who disagree with him are 'fat pigs" or other derisive terms.

6. Controlled Mass Media - Sometimes to media is directly controlled by the government, but in other cases, the media is indirectly controlled by government regulation, or sympathetic media spokespeople and executives. Censorship, especially in war time, is very common.

He already has a blacklist for journalists who fail to toe his line.

7. Obsession with National Security - Fear is used as a motivational tool by the government over the masses.

"We will stop all Muslim immigration"

8. Religion and Government are Intertwined - Governments in fascist nations tend to use the most common religion in the nation as a tool to manipulate public opinion. Religious rhetoric and terminology is common from government leaders, even when the major tenets of the religion are diametrically opposed
to the government's policies or actions.

I don't see this. Donald Trump is murky about his religious values, and I doubt that any mainstream religion in America really wants him.

9. Corporate Power is Protected - The industrial and business aristocracy of a fascist nation often are the ones who put the government leaders into power, creating a mutually beneficial business/government relationship and power elite.

What do you expect from a capitalist who has gotten rich largely by exploiting permanent scarcity?

10. Labor Power is Suppressed - Because the organizing power of labor is the only real threat to a fascist government, labor unions are either eliminated entirely, or are severely suppressed.

Donald Trump says nothing about that, but politicians of the Republican Party want labor unions eviscerated, if not outlawed so that the ruling elites of America can drive pay even lower.

11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts - Fascist nations tend to promote and tolerate open hostility to higher education, and academia. It is not uncommon for professors and other academics to be censored or even arrested. Free expression in the arts and letters is openly attacked.

Donald Trump makes George W. Bush look like a coddler of intellectuals.

12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment - Under fascist regimes, the police are given almost limitless power to enforce laws. The people are often willing to overlook police abuses and even forego civil liberties in the name of patriotism. There is often a national police force with virtually unlimited power in fascist nations.

Count on "Black Lives matters" facing harsh suppression.

13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption - Fascist regimes almost always are governed by groups of friends and associates who appoint each other to government positions and use governmental power and authority to protect their friends from accountability. It is not uncommon in fascist regimes for national resources and even treasures to be appropriated or even outright stolen by government leaders.

What would you expect from the definitive crony capitalist?

14. Fraudulent Elections - Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.

I doubt that he or his chosen successor (should his health fail) would be able to win a free election. But they will believe that they absolutely must, under any circumstances, win re-election in 2020 to "save" America from the people who don't appreciate how great it is to be overworked and underpaid, bound to slumlords and loan-sharks.

Dubya was just a Maine coon cat; Trump is a leopard.

[Mikebert]

National Review has an article on this.  It is really quite rosy and they are diehard nevertrumpers so I don't think they are trying to make him sound good. I think they paint a too rosy picture, Trump will be worse (from my perspective) than they suggest, but maybe he won't be totally awful, maybe only a bit worse than Bush and we survived him.

The street.com gave a more favorable review that suggested he could be pretty good for the economy, unless he is very bad.  Not too useful so I don't link it.

The brits had an article, mostly peripheral issues from my perspective on which I don't have much of an opinion.

And then there is the usually doom and gloom stuff.  Nowhere have I read anything coherent from a pro-trump pundit, which leads me to suspect that he has no supporters who can make a coherent argument for Trump. I already know that Trump himself cannot.

[Eric the Green]

(09-17-2016, 12:34 PM)Mikebert Wrote: National Review has an article on this.  It is really quite rosy and they are diehard nevertrumpers so I don't think they are trying to make him sound good. I think they paint a too rosy picture, Trump will be worse (from my perspective) than they suggest, but maybe he won't be totally awful, maybe only a bit worse than Bush and we survived him.

I thought of this, but then I think, how many Bushs can we survive? With climate change getting worse by the day, I'm not sure we can survive another. Nor can we afford another reckless foreign policy. And we are already broke; how much more debt can we pile on before we are truly bankrupt and the interest eats up our government? How much more supply-side-driven economic ruin? How much more of letting Wall Street run wild?

[pbrower2a]

"Page not found". It sounds interesting.

[Mikebert]

(09-17-2016, 06:38 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: "Page not found".  It sounds interesting.

Try it now

[Mikebert]

(09-17-2016, 01:19 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(09-17-2016, 12:34 PM)Mikebert Wrote: National Review has an article on this.  It is really quite rosy and they are diehard nevertrumpers so I don't think they are trying to make him sound good. I think they paint a too rosy picture, Trump will be worse (from my perspective) than they suggest, but maybe he won't be totally awful, maybe only a bit worse than Bush and we survived him.

I thought of this, but then I think, how many Bushs can we survive? With climate change getting worse by the day, I'm not sure we can survive another. Nor can we afford another reckless foreign policy. And we are already broke; how much more debt can we pile on before we are truly bankrupt and the interest eats up our government? How much more supply-side-driven economic ruin? How much more of letting Wall Street run wild?

Clinton won't be much better than Bush if she wins narrowly and Democrats fail to take back the Senate.  Obama had a Democratic Congress for two years that allowed him to pass some stuff, including preventing the depression he inherited.  He had a Democratic Senate that allowed him to fill some appointments.  There is going to be a recession during the next presidential term. The last two business cycles have ended with an asset bubble collapse.  We currently have a stock market bubble and so this recession is going to be like the last two in that way.  The Fed was able to contain the first bubble collapse by slashing interest rates, which had the effect of creating a new bubble in real-estate, whose growth countered the recessionary impact of the falling stock bubble.  For the second recession the stock market was a damaged asset class and when the Fed slashed rates it failed to counter the effects of the deflating real estate bubble and we had a very serious recession.  Depression was avoided by a combination of fiscal stimulus (Bush's TARP and Obama's stimulus bill) coupled with extraordinary actions by the Fed (QE).

For the upcoming recession real estate is a damaged asset class, and there will be no counter for the collapsing stock bubble.  Interest rates are already low and the Fed has no room to serious cuts.  QE has been heavily utilized and its effects the first time were pretty weak and a second set of actions will be even less effective.  The GOP Congress is NOT going to pass another TARP for fear of a Tea party reaction against them.  They are not going to pass any stimulus to help Clinton get re-elected.  The most likely outcome of a recession on Clinton's watch would be a nasty recession that would probably even be worse than the last one.  Since they have already called that one the Great Recession I think we might see the D-word come back into use.

Conventional wisdom would have Democrats blamed for this downturn and that could be the end of their party.  A month ago I was envisioning a big Clinton victory with a clear Democratic majority in the Senate and a much narrower Republican majority in the house, in which investor fears could pressure Ryan to let the Clinton stimulus plan to come to a vote.  But if Ryan retains the huge Republican majority of today, I see this action as too risky for him and so and any Clinton stimulus that would have a chance of working would be DOA in the House.  This would leave starting a full scale war against ISIS or someplace else as her only out.  We saw where that led Bush.

[pbrower2a]

Donald Trump makes so many contradictory promises that he will have to spend much of his time deciding which promises to betray.  That will be a very bad start.

He seems to be appeasing Boris Putin before Putin has made any threats of offered any empty promises of 'peace in our time'. Putin isn't Hitler, but at this point Trump is worse than Neville Chamberlain.

Quote:One thing is certain: There’s nothing here that even hints at constitutional conservatism. Trump’s face, like Obama’s before him, would become the face of his party. In the wake of Trump’s continuous policy and media onslaught, the principles of limited government would disappear. Conservatives would fall in line behind Trump, seeking to uphold his agenda because he was “their man.” Those who failed to fall in line would be labeled enemies of the country in Republican circles. A New American Consensus would be formed, merging the ad hoc populist Right and the Democratic Left. The era of conservatism would end.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/43...pen-really

The attempt to unify extremes is right out of the playbook of Juan Peron.

Justicialismo, anyone?