Generational Dynamics World View
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Generational Dynamics World View
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08-13-2019, 10:26 AM
** 13-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong police enter airport with force
With protesters shutting down the airport for another day, Hong Kong police have entered the airport for the first time, and right at this moment are using force to disperse the protesters.
08-13-2019, 10:31 AM
** 13-Aug-2019 Russia-Turkey
(08-12-2019, 09:29 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > It would be ironic if some of Turkey's S-400s end up shooting down Lol! You're right - ironic indeed! It took two years for Putin to forgive Erdogan the last time the Turks shot down a Russian warplane, and in the meantime he implemented harsh anti-Turkey sanctions. If what you're suggesting happened, I don't that Putin would probably react militarily. 
08-13-2019, 10:51 AM
(08-13-2019, 10:31 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 13-Aug-2019 Russia-Turkey H-m-m-m. I wouldn't assume that the Russians would sell a missile system to Turkey unless an override was hidden in the code somewhere. Why should they? The two have been belligerents many times in the past, and there is no love loss between them. Both nations, and both leaders, are nationalists, and unlikely allies.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
08-13-2019, 09:15 PM
Globalists and Human-rights-ers such as mcconnell, biden, Harris, bush and others are trying to push trump into imposing negative actions against China regarding a potential crackdown in Hong Kong. Globalists are embracing tyranny and anti-freedom of action on the parts nation-states within their own borders.
08-14-2019, 08:21 PM
** 14-Aug-2019 World View: Peter Navarro's list of China negotiation issues
Peter Navarro is President Trump's Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy. He's considered to be a "hardliner" on the China negotiations. On tv today, he recited an interesting list of seven structural issues in China's economy that have to be resolved by trade negotiations:
It's pretty clear that resolving these issues would take years, if not decades to be resolved. Furthermore, these criminal activities are deeply embedded in China's culture, which considers Americans to be barbarians, and so it's doubtful that they could ever be resolved without a war.
08-15-2019, 07:41 PM
** 15-Aug-2019 World View: Thomas Friedman and 'Dell Theory'
The world-famous NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman was on CNBC this morning, babbling about a lot of stuff, but one thing really caught my attention. He was talking about the US-China trade. He was babbling that we should lift the sanctions a little, and then China will open their markets a little, and the trade dispute will get resolved that way. The guy's a complete idiot. During the CNBC interview, he said the following: Quote:> "Xi Jinping is one of the most important players in This guy is supposed to be a respected journalist and worldwide expert on the whole world. And he has no clue what Xi Jinping wants? Well, at least his cluelessness "really concerns" him, so we can breathe a sigh of relief. I've said this before -- people my age have wondered throughout our lives how Hitler could have so thoroughly fooled the British, when he told Neville Chamberlain "peace in our time" as he was actively building a war machine with plans to attack Britain. How is that possible? Listening to Thomas Friedman, we can see how it happened. It's astonishing to see it happen again. Although Thomas Friedman is like Neville Chamberlain, Donald Trump is like Winston Churchill, which is fortunate for our country. The contrast between Thomas Friedman and Donald Trump in terms of basic intelligence is mind-boggling. Thomas Friedman is the author of what he calls "The Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention," which states: Quote:> "No two countries that are both part of a major global How can anyone be so stupid?
08-16-2019, 10:59 AM
*** 16-Aug-19 World View -- US-China trade war seriously disrupts world trade
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** US-China trade war seriously disrupts world trade **** ![[Image: g190815b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190815b.jpg) Does selling capacitors to Huawei violate Trump's China trade sanctions? Much of international trade is in chaos, because of the US-China trade war, and especially because of US sanctions on Huawei Technologies and other Chinese firms for security reasons. Many international firms are going to take a revenue hits because they have to do less business with China. Furthermore, they're unable to plan effectively for the rest of 2019 and 2020 because President Donald Trump changes the details of the US sanctions rules frequently. Trump has announced two major changes in the last week alone -- delay of some tariffs, and ending all business with Huawei. Trump has received a great deal of support both domestically and internationally for his US-China trade sanctions, because China has repeatedly lied cheated in trade as a matter of course for decades. Even Democratic party leader Chuck Shumer was counseling Trump to "hang tough." Those supporting the sanctions say, "this has to be done sometime, and if not now, then when?" **** **** Returning to 'Normal' **** However, almost everyone, particularly the Chinese, would like the sanctions to end, so that things can return to "normal." For the sanctions to end, there has to be a "trade deal," and so there have been frequent predictions of a trade deal in the mainstream media, many of which have proved to be wishful thinking. The biggest example was the trade deal that was supposed to be signed at the end of May. During negotiations, the Chinese made commitments to resolve core complaints and write the changes into law -- theft of U.S. intellectual property and trade secrets; forced technology transfers; competition policy; access to financial services; and currency manipulation. But at the beginning of May, China reneged on every commitment, and demaneded that the agreement be signed anyway. This is a typical Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tactic -- agree to concessions, renege on concessions, and demand that everyone else honor their own commitments. This is the script that American presidents have followed in negotiations with China and North Korea for decades. The CCP officials undoubtedly expected this to work again, believing that Trump would be politically forced to sign anyway, being forced to do so by Democrats in the US and by leftists internationally. The CCP officials were apparently doubly shocked first because Trump didn't follow that script, and second because he received support from the Democrats and politicians worldwide. Trump vowed to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%, and threatened to raise them even more if China reneged on its existing agreements. As I've said many times in the past, North Korea will not give up it nuclear missiles, no matter what Trump does, and China will not give up stealing intellectual property and trade secrets, no matter what Trump does. Trump knows that too. Since May, there has been no progress on US-China trade talks. Peter Navarro is President Trump's Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy. He's considered to be a "hardliner" on the China negotiations. He appeared on television this week, and recited a list of seven structural issues in China's economy that have to be resolved by trade negotiations:
These criminal activities are deeply embedded in China's culture, which considers Americans to be barbarians, and so it's doubtful that they could ever be resolved without a war. Some reports indicate that the Chinese are hoping a new American president to take office in 2020, and be more "reasonable." The problem with that reasoning is that even a Democratic president would be unable politically to simply approve of the Chinese stealing intellectuarl property, forcing technology transfers, and so forth. In other words, there is no compromise that resolves this problem. We can look to the North Korean talks for an analogy that we can learn from. In that case, the Trump negotiations with Kim Jong-un produced a "charm offensive" that postponed some North Korean tests, but Trump did not end the sanctions, and North Korea did not end development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. **** **** Results of sanctions on Huawei Electronics **** The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration may have the effect of raising prices, but no apparent consequences beyond that. However, the sanctions on Huawei Technologies are having a major geopolitical effect. Of course, it's not just America that's block Huawei. Officials in more and more countries are becoming convinced that Huawei is building undetectable backdoors into their routers and other devices. These backdoors could be activated by China's military using, for example, a secret 1024-bit key, giving the military control of the device. The US and a number of other Western countries have placed severe restrictions on installations of Huawei 5G routers and other internet equipment on networks in their countries. As a result, many countries have restrictions on the purchase of Huawei equipment. However, Trump's sanctions on Huawei have gone a lot farther, and these sanctions are creating a chaotic situation for companies trying to plan a strategy for the next year. The problem is that China's government, through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is forcing as many goverments as they can to install Huawei 5G networks. Since China's government is heavily subsidizing Huawei, Huawei's devices are being widely installed in any countries where they're permitted. This means that, in case of war, China's military will be in control of networks in those countries. The Trump administration has placed additional restrictions on Huawei to slowdown the company's rapid takeover of portions of the internet. The Trump administration is restricting sales of Huawei products to American companies for security reasons. But the Trump administration has gone further, and is also restricting sales of American-made products to Huawei. The objective is to disrupt Hunwei's supply chain, to slow their takeover of the internet as much as possible. Components manufactured outside of the United States of course would not be affected by the US ban. However, it's more complicated than that, because components manufactured outside the US may still have components or materials manufactured within the US. The US has blocked Huawei from buying goods made from 25% or more of U.S.-originated technologies or materials. **** **** Planning for the future in a chaotic world **** An example of the confusion many companies are facing is Kyoto, Japan, based Murata Manufacturing. Murata supplies capacitors for Huawei-made base towers and smartphones. The capacitors made by Murata are heavily used in electronic circuits to stabilize voltage and power flow. A smartphone may contain hundreds of capacitors, while an electric vehicle like a Tesla uses about 10,000. It would seem that Murata's business with Huawei is completely outside the reach of the US sanctions on Huawei. That's why, on May 23, Murata's headquarters office in Kyoto, Japan, that "its business had not been affected by the U.S. move." However, this statement apparently caused something of a panic in the Murata's North American division. On May 30, Murata Electronics, North America (MENA), issued a very strong statement that contradicted the corporate statement issued just a week earlier. This statement said: <QUOTE>"Murata Electronics, North America (MENA), must not export, re-export or transfer (in country) any items (hardware, software, technology) that are subject to the US Export Administration Regulations to those who are listed in the Entity List. Public domain information available on Murata's web site is the only technical information available to these companies. Direct sales to any of these Huawei business entities or indirect sales known or suspected to be routed to the listed Huawei entities is to immediately cease. Communications between, or on behalf of, MENA and Huawei, or any Huawei affiliated companies regardless if they are included in the Entity list or not should immediately cease. This direction includes communications such as meetings, email, phone, sample support, product promotion, technology discussions, quotes, or any other activity whether written or verbal. Out of an abundance of caution, MENA is ceasing all sales and communications with Huawei business entities regardless of whether the Huawei business is on the Entity List or not. MENA customer codes tied to Huawei affiliated companies will be deactivated."<END QUOTE> This is a pretty aggressive policy statement, issued on May 30, in compliance with US requirements, on the part of the North American branch of Murata. It appears to a reaction to the corporate statement, to make it clear that MENA was complying with the sanctions, even if corporate might or might not. Since then, Murata's Japanese offices have apparently not made any further public statements. Murata's June 30 quarterly financial statement made only a vague reference to the issue: <QUOTE>"In the global economic environment for the period under review, a slowdown in the economy in China caused by the trade friction with the U.S. was increasingly apparent. While employment growth continued in the U.S., economic prospects gradually worsened, and in Europe, political uncertainty coincided with the weakening of the region's economy. The prolonged U.S.-China trade friction is increasingly having an impact on the global economy, causing growing uncertainty about its future."<END QUOTE> These are pretty clearly weasel words written by a lawyer, since they supposedly state a policy while saying nothing. But one can sympathize with the complexity of Murata's problems. Murata has numerous plants, sales offices, and research facilities in China, so it's not surprising that the company is unable to arrive at a firm policy with respect to Huawei. According to research by Goldman Sachs, Murata will lose $90 million in operating profit because of the Huawei restrictions, and Japan's major electronic parts manufacturers together will lose $230 million in profits. As another example, Osaka-based Panasonic Corp. has had similar confusion. On May 23, the company said that it was suspending supplies of some components to Huawei, but issued a clarifying statement on May 24 saying, "No transactions with Huawei have been suspended at the moment. We are still making checks whether the ban applies to our products." Huawei reacted last year by preparing for a worst case scenario. Huawei is diversifying its suppliers, and it's developing some of its own components instead of depending on suppliers. Huawei told its suppliers last year that it wanted to build up a 6-12 month inventory of the most crucial components **** **** The broader picture **** Every company that does business with Huawei is likely to be confused right now, if only because President Trump himself seems to change policy regularly. On Friday of last week, Trump said that "it's easier not to do business at all with Huawei," and he added, "We're not going to do business with Huawei. That doesn't mean we won't agree to something if and when we make a trade deal, but we're not going to be doing business with Huawei." Trump said that China was breaking its commitment to purchase more American farm goods, and indicated that if China started fulfilling that promise, then he would revisit the Huawei decision. For Murata, Panasonic, or any other firm that sells components to Huawei, this means that it must be ready to change policies at any time. There's a broader picture here. In the 1980s, the US imposed sanctions on Poland and South Africa, and they apparently played a part in restoring democracy in both countries. I remember analysts at the time describing how sanctions were a much better way to solve problems than using military action. Today, many countries are imposing sanctions, including the US, the EU, the UK, Japan, South Korea, and others. It may be true that sanctions solve problems, but only in a generational Awakening era. Today, in a generational Crisis era, they have the opposite effect. Instead of acceding to demands backed by sanctions, the targets impose counter-sanctions. There is now a large global network of interlocking sanctions involving many countries, and this is slowing growth and strengthening the hands of hardliners in many countries and falling growth forecasts. This international trade war is in context of a number of things that are almost beyond belief in modern times:
There's a feeling these days that the world is headed for some kind of tipping point. In particular, there is a good chance of a global recession in the next few months, and that could trigger a chain reaction of crises in any of the items in the above list. So the correct analogy to what's happening today is not Poland and South Korea in the 1980s. One analogy is the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act which was passed by Congress in 1930, during the Great Depression. it was particularly devastating to Japan, as it cut off Japan's exports to America of silk, its greatest cash crop. A year later, a desperate Japan invaded Manchuria. Another analogy today is 1941. Japan invaded China in 1937, and launched the Sino-Japanese war. On August 1, 1941, US president Franklin Roosevelt showed his displeasure by establishing an embargo on oil and gasoline exports to Japan. Three months later, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. You don't have to understand these analogies to know that the world is an international pressure cooker today, a welter of tariffs, sanctions, annexations, genocide, ethnic cleansing, border disputes, and militarization. As I showed with numerous examples in my book, world wars don't begin with cataclysmic events like the bombing of Pearl Harbor. They begin with tiny conflicts that grow into cataclysmic events over a period of months. Those interested in understanding the history of China, Japan, Korea and Russia should read my book, "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2) Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/ Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Huawei Technologies, Peter Navarro, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Japan, Murata Manufacturing, Panasonic Corp., India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, Manchuria Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
08-19-2019, 09:23 AM
** 19-Aug-2019 World View Notes: North Korea, Hong Kong, Kashmir Afghanistan
**** **** Contents **** -- North Korea: Make boiled head of a cow laugh -- Hong Kong's peaceful demonstrations -- Kashmir still boiling, but more slowly -- Horrific terrorist attack on wedding party in Kabul, Afghanistan **** **** North Korea: Make boiled head of a cow laugh **** ![[Image: 688b5dba-c07f-11e9-8f25-9b5536624008_ima...074450.jpg]](https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/methode/2019/08/17/688b5dba-c07f-11e9-8f25-9b5536624008_image_hires_074450.jpg)
North Korea launched test firings of an unspecified new weapon on Saturday. Child dictator Kim Jong-un expressed “great satisfaction” over his military’s “mysterious and amazing success rates” in recent testing activity and vowed to build up “invincible military capabilities no one dare provoke." This is the sixth round of projectile launches since late July. Donald Trump has downplayed the significance of these missile launches, pointing out these are short-range missiles, and do not violate Kim's agreement with Trump not to test nuclear weapons or long-range ballistic missiles. One analyst said that Kim is getting frustrated because these projectile launches are not causing the international news panic that he's enjoyed in the past, and the "blame" for that is Trump's downplaying the tests. South Korea's President Moon Jae-in called for Korean unification by 2045 and called for North Korea to choose "economic prosperity over its nuclear program." A North Korean official ridiculed Moon's remarks, and said that "the boiled head of a cow would fall into a side-splitting laughter." Kim Jong-un expresses ‘great satisfaction’ over North Korean weapons tests https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia...rth-korean (SCMP, 19-Aug-2019) **** **** Hong Kong's peaceful demonstrations **** ![[Image: 52e9d80a-c260-11e9-ad8c-27551fb90b05_ima...200052.JPG]](https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/methode/2019/08/19/52e9d80a-c260-11e9-ad8c-27551fb90b05_image_hires_200052.JPG)
There were hundreds of thousands of protesters in Hong Kong on Sunday, despite the pouring rain. The protests were peaceful, giving rise to hopes that the protests would fizzle out in time for China's big independence day celebrations on October 1. For this, I would quote the Greek philosopher Aristotle (384-322 BC): "One swallow does not a summer make, nor one fine day; similarly one day or brief time of happiness does not make a person entirely happy." But pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong threatened further unrest unless the government meets their demands -- now. ‘Now is the time to meet demands’: pro-democracy lawmakers and protesters warn Hong Kong’s embattled leaders https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/poli...makers-and (SCMP, 19-Aug-2019) **** **** Kashmir still boiling, but more slowly **** India is lifting some restrictions in the India-governed portion of Kashmir. Some phone service has been restored, and some schools have reopened, but much of the area is still in lockdown. The Pakistani people seem to be pretty furious about what India did -- revoking Article 370, taking away Kashmir's special privileges. Prime minister Imran Khan is using diplomatic threats against India to cool the anger in Pakistan, but it's hard to predict where this is going to go. ** 10-Aug-19 World View -- Pakistan-India relations downgraded as Kashmir is locked down ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190810 **** **** Horrific terrorist attack on wedding party in Kabul, Afghanistan **** Dozens of people were killed on Saturday evening by an explosion in Kabul, the capital city of Afghanistan. The explosion attacked a Shia Hazara wedding. Ethnic Hazaras, and other Shia groups, are often targeted by jihadist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Taliban vehemently denied responsibility. However, ISIS has claimed responsibility. There have been an increasing number of terror attacks across Afghanistan claimed by ISIS. As usual, a terror attack by ISIS does not mean that a bunch of ISIS thugs in Syria packed their bags and came to Kabul to blow up a wedding. What's happening is that some jihadist groups in Afghanistan are claiming allegiance with ISIS rather than with al-Qaeda. It's possible that the ISIS groups are a younger generation, breaking away from the older generations in Taliban. One analyst suggested that the ISIS groups came from Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), the Pakistan Taliban, which has had differences with the Afghan Taliban. Trump wants to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan, and so the US is negotiating with the Taliban, where the US will withdraw its troops and the Taliban will promise to be nice. That's about as laughable as anything else going on today. However, the "peace talks" may be derailed by ISIS attacks.
08-20-2019, 08:37 PM
** 20-Aug-2019 World View: Pompeo links Hong Kong with trade war
US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo on Tuesday made an interesting argument relating the US-China trade negotiatons to the situation in Hong Kong. By way of introduction, Pompeo did not say that the US supports the current protesters, but he said that the US supports the right to protest: Quote: "President Trump captured this, I think, perfectly With that introduction he made the connection between the US-China trade negotiations and the Hong Kong protests: Quote: "China needs to fulfill its promises. One of the Pompeo was alluding to the 1984 Joint Declaration on Hong Kong, signed by China and Britain, in which China guaranteed that Hong Kong is to be a "Special Administrative Region" of China, having its own laws, freedoms, financial system and judicial system, for 50 years, from 1997 until 2047. This is known as "one country, two systems." China has already said that the 1984 agreement was a historical document that was no longer valid. Pompeo is saying that if you violate the 1984 agreement, then we don't believe anything else you say. ---- Source: -- Pompeo Says China Should Respect Hong Kong Protesters' Rights https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ers-rights (Bloomberg, 20-Aug-2019)
08-21-2019, 09:48 AM
** 21-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong clash
Big clash between protesters and riot police going on in Hong Kong right this minute. It's only Wednesday. This raises concerns about what will happen this weekend.
08-21-2019, 06:23 PM
(08-21-2019, 09:48 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 21-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong clash I'm more concerned about Taiwan. This entire affair has to be unsettling there. Any thoughts of declaring independence and walking away have to be off the table while DJT is in the White House. Just too risky. Then again, not everything is controllable, and Xi may decide that now is the perfect time to crack down. Who knows?
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
08-22-2019, 10:23 AM
** 22-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong and Taiwan
(08-21-2019, 06:23 PM)David Horn Wrote: > I'm more concerned about Taiwan. This entire affair has to be The Chinese have always made it clear that they will annex Taiwan to China at some time, by military force if necessary. They know that independence sentiment is growing, as survivors of the communist revolution civil war die off and are replaced by younger generations with greater allegiance to the West. Those sentiments have been growing even faster, as you suggest, because of the CCP's thuggish activities in Hong Kong. So a war of annexation on Taiwan is a foregone conclusion, but the timing of such a war is independent of any action in Hong Kong, since the latter is already part of China.
08-22-2019, 01:31 PM
** 22-Aug-2019 World View: South Korea ends intelligence sharing with Japan
Xeraphim1 Wrote:> South Korea axes pact to share military intelligence with Japan This disagreement goes far, far deeper than a simple political dispute. See the following: ** 3-Aug-19 World View -- Japan-Korea relations deteriorate quickly after surprise trade standoff ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190803
08-22-2019, 01:51 PM
(08-22-2019, 10:23 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 22-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong and Taiwan It isn't allegiance to the west; the nationalists were more aligned with the west than are today's generation. It's just that they don't dream of somehow invading the mainland and retaking it.
08-22-2019, 09:57 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-23-2019, 02:14 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 23-Aug-19 World View -- Syria regime wins major victory in Idilb, after attacking Turkish military convoy
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Syria regime and Russia major victory in Idlib, capturing Khan Sheikhoun **** ![[Image: g190822b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190822b.jpg) An Arab cartoon expressing the view that Vladimir Putin blindly bombs wherever Bashar al-Assad tells him, making Putin the puppet of puppetmaster al-Assad (Mideast Monitor) The regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, supported by Russia's army and airforce, has achieved a major victory in al-Assad's campaign to recapture Idlib province from anti-Assad rebels. This comes after weeks when the Idlib war was at a standstill and frozen in place. Syrian and Russian forces entered the strategic town of Khan Sheikhoun on Wednesday, after capturing another strategically important town, Al-Hobeit, last week. These two towns lie on the key M5 highway that connects Damascus with the northern city of Aleppo. Anti-Assad forces have been in control of these towns since they were captured in 2014, so their recapture represents a major symbolic and strategic victory for al-Assad. As the Syrian and Russian forces closed in, all the "moderate" anti-Assad rebel fighters, many of them supported by Turkey, withdrew. Reports indicate that they moved north and east, towards the Turkey border, to try to prevent the Syrian and Russian forces from proceeding further. Another group of anti-Assad rebels, the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front) has issued a statement that the withdrawal is a "redeployment" of its fighters to the southern part of Khan Sheikhoun from where they would continue to defend their territory. There are over three million people in Idlib, most of whom fled there from Bashar al-Assad's violence in other regions. About 70,000 are anti-Assad rebels, and rest are families of men, women and children. Bashar al-Assad considers all three million of them to be "terrorists," and are to be exterminated. He's made it pretty clear that this is his intention, although has hasn't specifically used the word "exterminated." Now Idlib is being bombed and attacked by Syrian regime and Russian forces as happened in previous "de-escalation zones," including Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, but there is no other place to flee to. This is the last major region for al-Assad's genocide and ethnic cleansing of his Arab Sunni political opposition. Al-Assad is particularly targeting hospitals, schools and markets, in order to kill as many women and children as possible. However, al-Assad has not yet begun using chemical weapons -- chlorine gas, phosphorous and Sarin gas -- as he did regularly in other regions. Many families in Khan Sheikhoun and the surrounding villages are afraid of leaving their homes for fear of losing their land, their crops, their animals, and their belongings. Tens of thousands of families have left their homes in the last two days alone, and are fleeing north and west toward the border with Turkey. The regions closer to the Turkey border are becoming more and more crowded, since Turkey, which already hosts 3.5 million Syrian refugees, has closed the border. At a time of his choosing, al-Assad and his Russian puppets will be able mop up the crowds of civilian families all at once. **** **** Syria attacks Turkey's military convoy **** As a result of the so-called "Astana process" last year, Turkey and Russia agreed that Idlib was a "de-escalation zone," and Turkey would police it, and take the guns away from the anti-Assad rebels. Turkey has set up a dozen small military bases (observation posts) around the region, as part of that agreement, but has not been successful in disarming the anti-Assad rebels. These Turkish observation posts have been attacked repeatedly by artillery from the Syrian army. Turkey has repeatedly demanded that Russia keep al-Assad under control, but Russia has been unable or unwilling to do so. The situation became much more alarming on August 17 when, for the first time, Syrian warplanes targeted a Turkish military convoy on its way to an observation post near Khan Sheikhoun. Three civilians were killed and 12 wounded. Turkey's Defense Ministry blamed the Russians, saying that Turkey had supplied the Russians with advance information on the route that the convoy would be taking. However, an al-Assad spokesman said that the convoy was attacked on purpose, because "Turkish vehicles loaded with munitions... are heading toward Khan Sheikhoun to help the terrorists." In other words, Syria used the information to locate the convoy, and targeted it on purpose. None of this is surprising. The UN is conducting an investgation of Syria and Russia for targeting hospitals and schools. The UN had supplied the Syrians and Russians with the coordinates of the hospital and school in Idlib, so that they would not be targeted by warplanes. Instead, the Syrians and Russians used those coordinates to target schools and hospitals on purpose. **** **** Russia admits its ground troops are fighting in Idlib **** During 2015, I repeatedly reported that the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad was near collapse, after al-Assad's army suffered a number of significant major setbacks, and was being crippled by massive desertions. ( "8-Apr-15 World View -- Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse" ) At that time, al-Assad was saved by the massive intervention by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. It's been known that Iran's troops from the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been fighting alongside al-Assad's troops in Syria. It's been known that Hezbollah troops, under orders from their Iranian puppetmasters, have also been fighting alongside al-Assad's troops in Syria. Russia's warplanes have been an essential part of al-Assad's slaughter of his Sunni Arab enemies. But Russia has always denied that Russian troops were fighting in Syria, even though numerous reports said that they were. However, during a press conference on Tuesday, Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov finally confirmed that "There are Russian soldiers on the ground in the Syrian province of Idlib." He added that Russia would respond to any attack on its soldiers in Syria. That would be a warning to Russia's supposed ally, Turkey. It's not surprising al-Assad's army needs even more help. Syria is in a generational Awakening/Unraveling era, and the people have little will to fight another war. The civil war in Syria should have fizzled years ago, but it's continuing because Bashar al-Assad is a psychopathic monster, and because he's received massive support from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. **** **** Turkey and Russia on a military collision path **** There's nothing new here. Syria and Russia have always used the "peace talks" as a cover to hide the continued genocide, and they're doing it again in Idlib. Turkey has played along, but there are two things that would change that: attacks by Syrian or Russian warplanes on Turkish forces, and a massive humanitarian disaster that would push hundreds of thousands of people across the border into Turkey. Bashar al-Assad has said repeatedly that he intends to take control of Idlib province. There is absolutely no reason to doubt his intentions, or that he intends to do it using the same methods he used in Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, and previous de-escalation zones: targeting markets, schools, hospitals and residences with barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine gas, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons targeting innocent Sunni women and children, and using Sarin gas to kill large groups of people. He considers all Sunni Arab political opponents to be cockroaches to be exterminated. The first warplane attack on Turkish forces occurred four days ago. As al-Assad's Syrian forces continue to move north, they're going to encounter more Turkish observation posts (military bases), and there are going to be more convoys to attack. If such an attack occurs again, Turkey may attempt to shoot down the warplane with a surface to air missile. As Syria and Russia continue their attacks on civilians in Idlib, and push them farther north and east to the border with Syria, the humanitarian situation with worsen. Hundreds of thousands of families have already been forced to flee their homes and head for Turkey's border. The United Nations has for months been warning of the potential of one of the greatest humanitarian disasters in history. The point is that all of these activities are pointing towards a military clash between Turkey versus the Syrian regime and Russia. Bashar al-Assad is a Shia/Alawite, and Syria's last generational crisis war was a religious/ethnic civil war between the Shia Alawites versus the Sunnis, including the ethnic Turkmens, climaxing in February, 1982. So there's a great deal of animus between the Alawites and the Turks. Turkey and Russia may be having a marriage of convenience at the present time, but they are no friends, as I described in "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars" . **** **** Syria: The crucible of a major Mideast war **** As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war refighting the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war will also pit Sunnis versus Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. It is 100% certain that Turkey and Russia will be at war. The only remaining questions are the timing and scenario. I've assumed that the most likely scenario for the start of a major war in the Mideast would be Israelis versus Palestinians and other Arabs. However, as Israel has developed alliances with Egypt, Jordan, United Arab Emirates and other Arab countries, that scenario has seemed less likely. We now see a new scenario growing more likely, based on the following observations:
This suggests a possible scenario where a military clash begins in Syria between Turkey and Russia, and spreads to a regional or larger war. This scenario is not certain, of course, but in view of centuries of wars between Turkey and Russia, it's certainly plausible. **** **** Other major geopolitical issues **** As the alignment of nations in a future Mideast war becomes clearer, there are still a number of questions about how the nations of Europe will line up. Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Greece all have different and sometimes conflicting interests in the Mideast, and these differences could expand into clashes. Within Europe itself, there are sharp differences between North and South, and between East and West. Recall, for example, that one of the major reasons for Brexit is that many Britons objected to immigrants -- not the Muslim immigrants from Syria but the Christian immigrants from Poland and Hungary. And, of course, the Balkan nations are a hotbed of anger and hostility. Meanwhile, I continue to be absolutely astonished that, after hearing politicians for decades say "Never again!", referring to the Nazi Holocaust against the Jews, that there are now three Holocausts currently in progress, in three different countries, all targeting Sunni Muslims:
Something new and astonishing occurs every day. **** **** Sources ****
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib, Khan Sheikhoun, Al-Hobeit, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daara, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Astana process, chlorine gas, Sarin gas, phosphorous, ammonia, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Iran, Hezbollah, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC, Shia Crescent, Iraq, Lebanon, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Greece, Poland, Hungary Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
08-23-2019, 06:05 AM
(08-22-2019, 10:23 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 22-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong and Taiwan Triggering events are triggering events, and HK smells like one to me. Xi needs to win one, and Taiwan is a big one, albeit not easy. You've been looking for a crisis war, and this may be the entre.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
08-24-2019, 01:30 PM
** 24-Aug-2019 World View: Losing the trade war?
Asia Guest Wrote:> Why do people keep saying that Trump is losing the trade war? It's very difficult getting this information from the media. China is very opaque and lies about unfavorable economic information. The mainstream media can't say that the trade war is succeeding, since that would be supporting Trump. I did write an article six weeks ago about how the trade war is making companies doing business in China to move out, with Vietnam gaining: ** 3-Jul-19 World View -- Vietnam to gain from collapse of US-China trade talks ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190703 Another way of looking at it is the per capita annual income in different countries: China $10K Taiwan $25K South Korea $30K Japan $40K Hong Kong $48K USA $60K The interesting thing about these figures is that the same Chinese people live in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong, but the per capita income is far lower in China, reflecting the utter incompetence and stupidity of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
08-24-2019, 03:14 PM
(08-24-2019, 01:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 24-Aug-2019 World View: Losing the trade war? Is this quote from your forum somewhere, and if so, any chance of a direct link? This is of course what I would expect, but as you note, it's hard to get the information. It's also to be noted that the Chinese government could use the resentment to rally sentiment against an outside enemy, namely the US in this case. That would give it more freedom to take military action, though they'd still be limited by their military weakness.
08-25-2019, 07:32 AM
(08-24-2019, 01:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 24-Aug-2019 World View: Losing the trade war? (08-24-2019, 03:14 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Is this quote from your forum somewhere, and if so, any chance of The comment by Asia Guest was posted here on Friday: http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...500#p47421
08-25-2019, 07:33 AM
** 25-Aug-2019 World View: The stupidity of the Chinese Communist Party
mr nobody Wrote:> really?! that is your rational? are you kidding me? first, you're Since I wrote a whole book on this subject, I'll only point briefly to a couple of things. You say that these other countries -- Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, colonial Hong Kong -- all did well and are doing well because they had "support of US military, direct investments from US and free access to US market." Well, yes, that's true, but it's the utter stupidity of the Chinese that they rejected all that help from the West. Brief example: While China pursued the Boxer Rebellion, which essentially declared war against the rest of the world, Japan signed the Anglo-Japanese alliance, which enormously benefited Japan. That's an example of how the Chinese were unbelievably stupid. Another example is Mao's Great Leap Forward, which is probably the stupidest policy in the history of the world, where Mao managed to kill tens of thousands of Chinese through executions and starvation, and destroyed the entire agricultural infrastructure at the same time. During the same time period, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and colonial Hong Kong were building up their economies, accessing the US market, and accepting direct investments from the US. That's how smart the other countries were, and how stupid the CCP was. After Mao inflicted the Great Leap Forward disaster onto China, he went on to inflict another enormous disaster, Mao's Great Cultural Revolution, a policy so incredibly stupid that it set China back probably 20 years. Here's a very interesting point relevant to your statement about the other countries had "support of US military, direct investments from US and free access to US market." I wrote a lot about this in my book because it's so interesting. Let me quote a few paragraphs from my book: Quote:> "Mao launched the Great Cultural Revolution. He shut Note in particular what happened to the religious organizations in China WHO WERE THERE TO HELP THE CHINESE PEOPLE. Mao and the other CCP idiots tortured and killed them, and forced them to flee to other countries, especially Taiwan, where they were an enormous boon to those economies. This is an excellent example of your point that other countries received Western support while China didn't -- that's because the unbelievably stupid idiots in the CCP tortured and killed anyone who tried to help them, because all the CCP officials cared about was keeping their own power and their own mistresses. You should buy my book if you want more examples, but the bottom line is the same -- that the people in the CCP have been incredibly evil, stupid, incompetent people who are inflicting enormous pain on the wonderful Chinese people, while people in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and colonial Hong Kong thrived because they had the support of the West instead of rejecting it, and became active partners in the international community. And yes, the CCP's fear of Winnie the Pooh is an example of how stupid and idiotic the CCP is. They fear Winnie the Pooh because he looks like Xi Jinping, and they're afraid that the cartoon character could be used to encourage an anti-CCP rebellion (on the mainland). Can you imagine how ridiculous it would be if Donald Trump or any Western leader were afraid of a cartoon character like that? |
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