Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 08-Aug-2021 World View: Still skeptical

Navigator Wrote:> I am still skeptical. I have asked some well connected sources to
> look into it.

> Reasons for my skepticism:

> 1 - This appears to have a SOLE source, J.R. Nyquist. I can't
> find any sources other than those ultimately quoting him in the
> Epoch Times.

> 2 - Epoch Times was founded/is run by Falun Gong refugees. They of
> course hate the CCP (with good reason) and want to bring it down.
> They overstep frequently, publishing stuff they have not properly
> vetted, but which fits their ideology and narrative (the fact that
> the liberal left does this all the time too does not make it
> right).

> It could take me a week or so to hear back, if they take the time
> to look into it seriously.

So in this case, I spent several days researching these issues, I
collected a number of sources, and I summarized them in my post. But
none of that research means anything to you. It's as if I never did
it. You must think that I'm a credulous idiot. You just come in,
announce that you're skeptical, and say that you'll track down some
REAL sources, some "well-connected" sources.

Your main reason is that it was originally published in 2005 by the
Epoch Times. So what exactly are you saying? That the reporter at
the Epoch Times hated the CCP, so he made the whole thing up, and that
everyone is complete fooled? Is that what you're suggesting? If
that's what you think, please say so, because I'd like to see you make
that argument.

It's not true that Nyquist was the only source. Christoph Becker was
also a source. If you read Nyquist's blog, he references a number of
sources of his own. We're not just credulous idiots who believe
anything we read. We cross-check everything with other sources, and
when the sources match up, we reasonably conclude that the claims are
likely to be correct.

Here's another source for you to check out:

-- Chi Haotian / Is Nazi China emerging?
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spotl...merging/0/
(Indian Defense Review, 25-Sep-2011)

This article was written ten years ago, and the author debated whether
Chi Haotian's letter was authentic, and came to the same conclusion as
I did: that if it hadn't been authentic, then someone would have said
so. It was for the same reason -- that no Chinese officials have
denied the validity of the story.

I'm quite familiar with the story behind the Falun Gong and the Epoch
Times, but perhaps you don't understand how the world works. The NY
Times can lie all it wants. Russia Today can lie all it wants. China
Daily can lie all it wants. If they're caught lying, they can always
depend on many others to come to their defense.

But that's not true of the Epoch Times. When it posts something like
the Chi Haotian story, then if there's an error it will be subject to
enormous ridicule, and disavowal.

But that didn't happen with this story. In fact, there's been almost
silence ever since the story was published. In 16 years, there has
been no word from Chinese officials including Chi. Why is that?
Because they don't want to call attention to the article. They'd
rather stick with silence, and just count on people like you to reject
it because you're "skeptical." They know that the speech is valid, so
they're better off leaving people like you "skeptical." The Chinese
are good at manipulating Westerners, and even know how to manipulate
Westerners with silence.

So who are your "well-connected" sources? Are they Chinese officials
or "well-connected" to Chinese officials? If they gave you an answer
either confirming or repudiating Chi's speech, that would actually be
major international news.

So when you hear back from your "well-connected" friends, please be
certain to post what they tell you. I'm very interested in hearing.
I predict that your "well-connected" friends will either not answer at
all or will give a non-committal answer, because if they said anything
else, the Chinese Communists would throw them into a pit. They would
rather say nothing, because they know you won't bother to do any
actual research, and you'll just remain "skeptical."

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Aug-2021 World View: Coddling idiots

spottybrowncow Wrote:> I've been following this forum for about 15 years. It's my most
> trusted place on the internet, But it's not perfect, as nothing
> is. As I get older, I get more ornery, and I suspect John is older
> than me. I pass all information through a filter, and this site is
> no different. There is much truth here. I advise people that they
> may get more useful knowledge from trying to encourage the truth,
> vs disparaging that which they disagree with. But again, that's
> just my opinion.

You make a very good point. I'm 77 years old and really pissed off
that I'm still alive. Ornery is a mild word for what I feel. 20
years ago, I might have coddled an idiot for fear that I might need
him in ten years. But today I know I won't need him in ten years
because I'll be dead (I hope). So if I do a lot of research and
someone ignores all that research and just says "I'm skeptical," after
doing no research whatsoever but going on "feelings," then I have no
need or desire to coddle.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Aug-2021 World View: Spread of Wuhan Coronavirus in China

A web site reader has called my attention to medical studies in
South America that raise the question of whether Chinese vaccines
are very effective against the lambda variant.

-- Infectivity and immune escape of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant of
interest Lambda
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...21259673v1
(Medrxiv, 1-Jul-2021)

This corresponds to more prosaically written reports that the
many people who have received the Sinovac or Sinopharm vaccines
are still getting sick from Covid. This may be not because the
vaccine is initially ineffective, but instead because its
effectiveness wears off within a few months.

And this corresponds to reports that the delta variant is
spreading rapidly within China itself:

• Spread of Wuhan Coronavirus delta variant in China (Bloomberg)

If the virus continues to spread in China, it would be a major
political disaster for Xi Jinping, who has essentially bet his
leadership on having already won the historic war against Covid,
claiming proof that Communism is superior to Western Democracies. Not
only was the virus not conquered in China, as Xi claimed, but the
China vaccines have been shown to be inferior to vaccines from the
hated democracies.

It's now clear that the Wuhan Virus Event was supposed to work as
follows:

• The virus was developed in the Wuhan and planted in the wet
  market. Steps were taken, including super-spreader events, to make
  sure that it spread around Wuhan. Doctors and scientists were jailed
  if they reported what was going on.
  
  
• The Chinese would claim that it was mutated from bats, jumping to
  humans in a wet market, and that China was a victim of the virus.
  
  
• China would "innocently" spread the virus around the world, while
  protecting China, and nobody would catch on.
  
  
• Xi Jinping would loudly claim that the virus was a historic war,
  and that China had defeated the virus long before the Western
  Democracies.

The Wuhan Virus Event was to be some sort of "beta test" of technology
to develop lethal viruses and spread them around the world.
Unfortunately for them, it backfired badly because it's clear to
pretty much everyone outside of China that China is completely to
blame.

This has also been one of several events that have temporarily
derailed Xi Jinping's plan for a major nuclear attack to defeat it in
one blow, and then use a biological weapon to "clean America up" so
that its land can be colonized by the Chinese.

There have been a string of events that have temporarily derailed Xi
Jinping's plans and threw him off his script:

• Trump refused to sign the US-China trade deal in May
  2019;
  
  
• Trump shut down travel from China and Europe in early February
  2020 in order to defeat China's plan, and mitigate the spread of the
  virus. This infuriated the Chinese.
  
  
• Trump's Operation Warp Speed developed three vaccines much faster
  than the Chinese (or anyone expected), thus proving the superiority of
  Western Democracies to Chinese Communism.
  
  
• The Communists had wanted Biden to win, because they expected
  Biden to remove Trump's sanctions. The Chinese are shocked that Biden
  is not doing so.
  
  
• Countries like Thailand and Indonesia are rejecting the
  Chinese vaccines, which don't seem to work, in favor of the
  Western vaccines, thus humiliating the Chinese further.
  
  
• The delta variant is spread in China with two humiliations for
  China: It shows that Xi Jinping was wrong when he says that he won the
  war, and it shows that the China's vaccines are inferior.

Xi Jinping is getting desperate to show some results. I've been
expecting him to announce or do something major in the Sep-Oct time
frame. This might be a war, or it might be something domestic. The
spread of the virus in China must be really throwing him off his game,
and opening him up to enormous criticisms and threats from opposing
factions.

One sign is that China has been taking steps to cut itself off
financially from the West. I'm not sure what this is signaling,
but it could be something major.


---- Sources:

-- China records 94 more locally transmitted cases, including 41 in
flood-ravaged Henan province
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/...us-hits-17
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 9-Aug-2021)

-- China Punishes Dozens of Officials as Delta Outbreaks Spread
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ks-expands
(Bloomberg, 9-Aug-2021)

-- Covid: Is China's vaccine success waning in Asia?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57845644
(BBC, 19-Jul-2021)

-- China: How Delta threatens a prized zero Covid strategy
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58095909
(BBC, 6-Aug-2021)

-- Infectivity and immune escape of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant of
interest Lambda
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...21259673v1
(Medrxiv, 1-Jul-2021)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Aug-2021 World View: Epoch Times

Navigator Wrote:> 6. Epoch Times does get in trouble, and get ridiculed. Reference
> the above article. I don't take lack of a statement of refutation
> as proof of truth. It could be that the CCP has already said
> "anything coming from Epoch Times is blatantly false". In fact, I
> would expect that such a blanket statement already exists.

The problem is that all your multiple points about the Epoch Times
are completely irrelevant, unless you're claiming that the Epoch Times
manufactured the letter, which is why I asked you about that.

Otherwise, it's completely illogical to reference the Epoch Times,
since the Chi Haotian letter has to be judged on its own, irrespective
of where it was first published. The fact that the Epoch Times got
the scoop by being the first to publish the letter (or by being the
only media source to dare to publish the letter and risk the wrath
of the Chinese Communists) is completely irrelevant.

Navigator Wrote:> 3. I do not think you are an idiot. I am just skeptical of
> something this inflammatory (as I believe you were originally). It
> may very well be true. I looked at your sources regarding the
> speech. They also appear to be referencing either the Epoch Times
> original piece, or they allow anonymous posting (which to me means
> that someone could take the Epoch Times article, copy it, and then
> post it to that site). I wish that we could get verification from
> someone that was there, or other kind of corroboration. I know
> that this may not be possible.

I have no idea what you mean by saying that I was originally
inflammatory. I just went back and read my original posts about the
Haotian speech, including the web log article, and I don't see anything
that was inflammatory. In fact, I was trying very hard not to be
inflammatory, since I knew "skeptical" people would call me on it.

Also the Chi Haotian letter itself is not inflammatory -- not in the
context of Communist Chinese culture. As I've said several times,
I've done an enormous amount of research. In the past, I've posted
thousands of articles on China, and I've written an entire book on
China. As I've said, I've immersed myself in research on this letter
the last few days.

Chi's speech is just the next step. That is, Mao Zedong laid
down his theory, Deng Xiaoping advanced that theory, and Chi Haotian's
speech advances Communist Party theory even further. The big advance
in Communist Party theory came about after the Tiananmen Square
massacre and the collapse of the Soviet Union. Chi's speech
describes the evolution of theory from Mao to Deng and then in the
90s, and projects that theory into the future by specifying what
action must be taken.

If you want to do some actual research, rather than just rejecting all
the research I've done, then read the following, which I referenced
earlier:

-- China’s Role in the Chemical and Biological Disarmament Regimes --
Eric Croddy
https://www.nonproliferation.org/wp-cont...91crod.pdf
(NonProliferation.org, March 2002)

This is an American analysis that corresponds closely to the Chi
Haotian analysis. In particular, it covers the plan for nuclear and
biological weapons, so those parts of Chi's speech are not extremist.

So really the only "extremist" part of Chi's speech, and the part that
I found most startling, was the strategy to defeat America "in one big
blow," and then use biochemical weapons to "clean up America" so that
the Chinese can colonize. But once again, Chi shows that this was the
logical next step from things that Mao and Deng said, especially
havling suffered through the One Child Policy for thirty years.

Here's something to keep in mind: The Chi Haotion speech, if valid, is
not just an ordinary leak. It's a leak of the entire Chinese
Communist military strategy, from top to bottom. It's no wonder that
they're responding to it with silence.

Still, I'd be very interested in hearing what your well-connected
military and intelligence friends have to say, if they're willing. As
I said, I predict silence.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Aug-2021 World View: Being inflammatory

Navigator Wrote:> The speech is what I consider inflammatory, not you.

Actually, you did call me inflammatory in your last response. But
let's put that aside.

Please tell me what part of Chi Haotian's speech you find
inflammatory. Please extract an actual quote. I'll do some
additional research, and see if I can find some independent
corroboration or explanation.

Note that you cannot claim that the Wuhan Virus Event was an
inflammatory part of Chi's speech, since it was not part of his
speech. The question is whether the speech itself is inflammatory. I
claim that it isn't. It's actually an extremely clear, well-reasoned,
logical explanation of Chinese Communist Party military strategy.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Aug-2021 World View: What is inflammatory?

Navigator Wrote:> I have never had any intention to call you "inflammatory". This
> was only meant in relation to the speech. If it came across that
> way, my apologies. Your work is not "inflammatory".

> I will work on getting some exact quotes later but I consider the
> following ideas "inflammatory" or utterly outrageous:

> 1. We are glad to find out that most of our people have no qualms
> about killing women, children and POWs.

> 2. We should kill all the people in USA/Canada and take the land
> for our own "lebensraum".

> 3. We should start a war with a massive nuclear strike and be
> prepared to lose everything east of Xian (probably a good 3/4 of
> Chinese population).

> If this guy said these things, he is a complete nut job. Not that
> I don't think the CCP is full of such people. But to say these
> things in any kind of large forum shows a complete lack of
> discretion.

> Maybe instead of "inflammatory" I should have used the words
> "completely outrageous" or "completely over the top" or "beyond
> reason and sanity", "blood curdling sabre rattling" or something
> else along these lines.

> There are, unfortunately, military people in every age who say
> things like this. Which basically boils down to "kill everyone
> that I don't like or doesn't kowtow to me". Fortunately, usually
> they are just seen as over the top blowhards. Unfortunately, there
> are exceptions.

You're absolutely right that things like "kill women, children and POWs"
and "colonize the USA land" are inflammatory, but only in the Western
culture. They are NOT inflammatory in the Chinese culture.

Sun Tzu wrote the Art of War around 500 BC. This book is almost
like the Bible in China's culture. It advocates deception and
utter ruthlessness in conducting war. These recommendations are
incorporated into Chi Haotin's strategy speech.

About four centuries after Sun Tzu wrote the Art of War, a Chinese
historian named Sima Qian wrote a biography of Sun Tzu. It included
an anecdote which shows the ruthlessnes of Sun Tzu. This anecdote
may or may not be true, but that makes no difference. The anecdote
is an accepted part of Chinese culture, especially military culture.

Here is the anecdote:

Quote:> "Sun Tzu Wu was a native of the Ch`i State. His ART OF
> WAR brought him to the notice of Ho Lu, King of Wu. Ho Lu
> said to him: "I have carefully perused your 13 chapters. May I
> submit your theory of managing soldiers to a slight test?"

> Sun Tzu replied: "You may."

> Ho Lu asked: "May the test be applied to women?"

> The answer was again in the affirmative, so arrangements were made
> to bring 180 ladies out of the Palace. Sun Tzu divided them into
> two companies, and placed one of the King's favorite concubines at
> the head of each. He then bade them all take spears in their
> hands, and addressed them thus: "I presume you know the difference
> between front and back, right hand and left hand?"

> The girls replied: Yes.

> Sun Tzu went on: "When I say "Eyes front," you must look straight
> ahead. When I say "Left turn," you must face towards your left
> hand. When I say "Right turn," you must face towards your right
> hand. When I say "About turn," you must face right round towards
> your back."

> Again the girls assented. The words of command having been thus
> explained, he set up the halberds and battle-axes in order to
> begin the drill. Then, to the sound of drums, he gave the order
> "Right turn." But the girls only burst out laughing. Sun Tzu
> said: "If words of command are not clear and distinct, if orders
> are not thoroughly understood, then the general is to blame."

> So he started drilling them again, and this time gave the order
> "Left turn," whereupon the girls once more burst into fits of
> laughter. Sun Tzu: "If words of command are not clear and
> distinct, if orders are not thoroughly understood, the general is
> to blame. But if his orders ARE clear, and the soldiers
> nevertheless disobey, then it is the fault of their officers."

> So saying, he ordered the leaders of the two companies to be
> beheaded. Now the king of Wu was watching the scene from the top
> of a raised pavilion; and when he saw that his favorite concubines
> were about to be executed, he was greatly alarmed and hurriedly
> sent down the following message: "We are now quite satisfied as to
> our general's ability to handle troops. If We are bereft of these
> two concubines, our meat and drink will lose their savor. It is
> our wish that they shall not be beheaded."

> Sun Tzu replied: "Having once received His Majesty's commission to
> be the general of his forces, there are certain commands of His
> Majesty which, acting in that capacity, I am unable to accept."

> Accordingly, he had the two leaders beheaded, and straightway
> installed the pair next in order as leaders in their place. When
> this had been done, the drum was sounded for the drill once more;
> and the girls went through all the evolutions, turning to the
> right or to the left, marching ahead or wheeling back, kneeling or
> standing, with perfect accuracy and precision, not venturing to
> utter a sound. Then Sun Tzu sent a messenger to the King saying:
> "Your soldiers, Sire, are now properly drilled and disciplined,
> and ready for your majesty's inspection. They can be put to any
> use that their sovereign may desire; bid them go through fire and
> water, and they will not disobey."

> But the King replied: "Let our general cease drilling and return
> to camp. As for us, We have no wish to come down and inspect the
> troops."

> Thereupon Sun Tzu said: "The King is only fond of words, and
> cannot translate them into deeds."

> After that, Ho Lu saw that Sun Tzu was one who knew how to handle
> an army, and finally appointed him general. In the west, he
> defeated the Ch`u State and forced his way into Ying, the capital;
> to the north he put fear into the States of Ch`i and Chin, and
> spread his fame abroad amongst the feudal princes. And Sun Tzu
> shared in the might of the King." [~Gutenberg-SunTzu-ArtOfWar]
>

This is not some simple story, like George Washington cutting down the
cherry tree and saying "I cannot tell a lie." This is deeply embued
into Chinese culture.

So when you say that talking about killing women, children and POWs
is inflammatory, or that colonizing America is inflammatory, you're
saying inflammatory in the context of Western culture. But not
in Chinese culture.

When you study, as I have, the atrocities that the Japanese committed
on the Chinese during the Sino-Japanese war (1937-45), then you
realize very quickly that the culture in the Asian nations is very,
very different than Western culture.

In the context of the Chinese culture, Chi Haotian's speech is
absolutely not inflammatory. As I said previously, it's actually an
extremely clear, well-reasoned, logical exposition of Chinese
Communist Party military strategy,

[John J. Xenakis]

** 10-Aug-2021 World View: Origins of Chi Haotian's speech

Tom Mazanec" Wrote:> Why did Chi blab this way? Wouldn’t it be better to make these
> moves secretly?

I don't think that Chi himself blabbed, though I don't know. I would
suspect that someone else blabbed.

Chi gave the speech in 2003 just before he retired. It's believed
that he gave the speech to high-level Communist Party cadres, probably
as a final act to pass on his knowledge to younger members of the
Party.

According to the Indian Defense Review in 2011: "Chi Haotian’s
speeches were posted on Chinese language websites, http://www.peacehall.com
on February 15, 2005 and on http://www.boxun.com on April 23, 2005. The
contents of the speeches have not been contradicted by official
sources in China. The background of the posted speeches remains a
mystery."
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spotl...merging/0/

I'm doing additional research analyzing the speech and its origins,
and I'll post the information when I have it.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Aug-21 World View -- Delta variant of Covid-19 spreading much faster than expected

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Delta variant of Covid-19 spreading much faster than expected
  
• Delta variant spreads across China
  

****
**** Delta variant of Covid-19 spreading much faster than expected
****


Spread of Wuhan Coronavirus Delta variant in China (Bloomberg)

The atmosphere in Washington with regard to things like masks and
vaccinations is so toxic and vitriolic that it's almost unbearable to
watch.

The situation with masks is especially confusing, since the "science"
about the effectiveness of different types of masks is ambiguous, and
some children are unable to breathe wearing masks.

The Delta variant of Covid-19 was first detected in India. It is now
spreading rapidly within the United States and other countries. It
threatens to get much worse in the fall, and to force more lockdowns,
including school closures. The reason is that the Delta variant is
twice as effective as the original virus in spreading from person to
person.

So you should be prepared, Dear Reader, for a fall and winter that's
worse than last year. You may be forced into lockdowns and school
closures that you don't want.

Making judgments about Covid variants is well outside my skill set, so
I won't attempt it. However, I've provided some credible mostly
non-ideological sources at the end of this article, and you can read
through those sources for information.

The most important news is that there are additional variants coming.
The "Delta Plus" and "Lambda" variants are spreading in other
countries, but their potential effect in the United States is not yet
known.

Some experts are predicting far more dangerous variants on the
horizon. Again, making a judgment about these is outside my skill
set, but there are articles referenced below that tell you about them.

I'm not going to tell you, Dear Reader, to wear masks or get
vaccinated. That's not my place. But I am going to tell you to make
contingency plans for yourself and your family in case these new
dangerous variants start spreading. Follow the motto of the Boy
Scouts and always "Be Prepared" for what comes next.

****
**** Delta variant spreads across China
****

Xi Jinping gave several speeches last year, claiming that the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) had won a historic battle against Covid (Wuhan
Coronavirus) and that this proved the superiority of the Chinese
Communism to Western democracies, which were still struggling with the
virus.

This year, the CCP and Xi Jinping are facing the possibility of major
humiliation, as the Delta variant spreads across China. The CCP is
doing everything possible, including mandatory testing and lockdowns,
to kill off the virus. If they're successful, it will be another
great victory for the CCP. But if they fail, then it may threaten the
leadership of Xi Jinping.

In my previous newsletter, I referenced a plan presented by Chinese
General Chi Haotian in a speech just as he was retiring in 2003. That
was a plan to solve China's perennial problem of overpopulation. His
solution is to colonize other lands, specifically the United States,
by defeating it with nuclear weapons, and then using biochemical
weapons to "clean up America" and kill any people left behind. so that
the Chinese can take over. (See "31-Jul-21 World View -- Wuhan Coronavirus -- Thinking the Unthinkable"
)

This plan is completely insane from the Western point of view, which
honors individual human life. The Falun Gong paper Epoch Times, which
first leaked the full text of the speech in 2005, refers to it as the
"Doomsday Crazy Gambling Plan" and to the CCP as the "Gongshi Blood
Company."

However, in the Chinese culture, which does NOT value individual human
life, this plan is quite reasonable, since a way must be found to
solve the problem of overpopulation. Mao Zedong had said that he
would gladly sacrifice half of China's population if it meant killing
all the Americans.

Whether Chi Haotian's speech was authentic and valid has been the
subject of a lengthy debate in the Generational Dynamics forum,
starting around here: http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=62949#p62949

So that brings us back to Covid-19, the Wuhan Coronavirus. We now
know with almost complete certainty that the virus was developed in
the Wuhan Virology Lab, and that it escaped, either accidentally or
intentionally, at some point prior to September 12, 2019, which was
the date when the Wuhan Virology Lab deleted its Virus Database in the
middle of the night.

Once the virus started spreading through the Wuhan population, China's
then actions are clear. There was a deep coverup. The CCP encouraged
travel to and from Wuhan from anywhere in the world, except within
China itself. This was deliberate, and it spread the virus to 180
countries, while protecting China.

It's now believed that the CCP thought that they could release the
virus into the world, while protecting China, and completely escape
blame, and furthermore, claim credit as the first and best country to
defeat the virus.

In my opinion, this plan has backfired badly. Releasing the virus
into the world was apparently some kind of "beta test" to develop
technology of using biological weapons. This is insane, but in the
Chinese culture which values an individual human life as being worth
zero, this is quite possible. Instead, China is being universally
blamed for spreading the virus. Furthermore, mutations of the virus,
including the Delta variant, are spreading across China, humiliating
Xi Jinping and the CCP in two ways: They prove that China did NOT
defeat the virus in 2020, and they expose the weakness of China's own
locally developed vaccines, Sinovac and Sinopharm.

There are many things that the Chinese Communists do that are insane
by Western standards. For example, of Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward
(1958-59), possibly the stupidest policy of any country in the history
of the world, killed tens of millions of innocent people for no reason
at all, destroying China's economy for decades. Since then, the
Tiananmen Square massacre or the massive torture, beating, and
enslavement of millions of Uighurs have all been insane policies.

But those are Western culture judgments. In the Chinese culture, the
Great Leap Forward may not have been a disaster after all. Today, the
population of China is 1.4 billion. If 50 million Chinese were killed
today, you would still have 1.4 billion people.

The Wuhan Virus Event backfired badly on the CCP. To save face, Xi
Jinping may have to do something drastic. We can only wait to see.

Sources:

• A Doomsday COVID Variant Worse Than Delta and Lambda May Be Coming, Scientists Say (Newsweek, 4-Aug-2021)
  
• Nextstrain - Real-time tracking of pathogen evolution (Nextstrain.org)
  
• As new COVID variants emerge, is herd immunity impossible? (Al-Jazeera, 11-Aug-2021)
  
• Here are the main COVID variants and everything you need to know about each (NY Daily News, 11-Aug-2021)
  
• Explainer: Beyond Delta, scientists are watching new coronavirus variants (Reuters, 11-Aug-2021)
  
• COVID-19: New deadlier coronavirus variant that could kill one in three 'a realistic possibility', SAGE warns (Sky News, Australia, 31-Jul-2021)
  
• China records 94 more locally transmitted cases, including 41 in flood-ravaged Henan province (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 9-Aug-2021)
  
• China Punishes Dozens of Officials as Delta Outbreaks Spread (Bloomberg, 9-Aug-2021)
  
• Covid: Is China's vaccine success waning in Asia? (BBC, 19-Jul-2021)
  
• China: How Delta threatens a prized zero Covid strategy (BBC, 6-Aug-2021)
  
• Infectivity and immune escape of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant of interest Lambda (Medrxiv, 1-Jul-2021)
  
• Trump CDC Director Robert Redfield Warns More Dangerous Variant Than Delta Coming in Fall (Newsweek, 11-Aug-2021)
  
• China: Delta variant steps up infection rates (Medical News Today, 10-Aug-2021)
  
• With the Delta variant spreading is China’s ‘zero tolerance’ Covid approach over? (Guardian, London, 4-Aug-2021)

Related Articles:

• Wuhan Coronavirus -- Thinking the Unthinkable (31-Jul-2021)
  
  
• Coronavirus coverup unravels in US as China threatens Australia (01-Jun-2021)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Wuhan Coronavirus, Covid-19,
Wuhan Virology Lab, General Chi Haotian,
Tiananmen Square, Mao Zedong,
Delta variant, Delta Plus variant, Lambda variant,
Xi Jinping, Chinese Communist Party, CCP,
Sinovac, Sinopharm

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John J. Xenakis
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[Tim Randal Walker]

The Chinese use nukes to depopulate the USA? So...the Chinese would view a radioactive waste land as ripe for colonization?

On the other hand, I can easily imagine nukes being part of scenario in which the mainland either invades Taiwan, or tries to bring Taiwan to its knees with a blockade. If not actually detonated, then used to bully. One tactic might be to threaten Japan or South Korea with nukes to dissuade the USA from intervening

[David Horn]

(08-12-2021, 09:25 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The Chinese use nukes to depopulate the USA?  So...the Chinese would view a radioactive waste land as ripe for colonization?

On the other hand, I can easily imagine nukes being part of scenario in which the mainland either invades Taiwan, or tries to bring Taiwan to its knees with a blockade.  If not actually detonated, then used to bully.  One tactic might be to threaten Japan or South Korea with nukes to dissuade the USA from intervening

For some period in the past, there were neutron weapons (though no evidence that any still exist inany weapons aresenal).  If produced and used, they cause virtually no blast-effect damage, the neutrons kill all life, and the infrastructre is left intact for future use.  Jimmy Carter considered building pure-fussion versions, but changed his mind.

[Tim Randal Walker]

I have seen Covid compared to the Spanish flu, which hit the world about a century ago. Imagine if the Spanish flu hit the world during the late 1930s-the years leading up to World War II. This suggests where we are today. Covid, with international politics turning very dangerous in east Asia.

[pbrower2a]

(08-12-2021, 10:09 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-12-2021, 09:25 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The Chinese use nukes to depopulate the USA?  So...the Chinese would view a radioactive waste land as ripe for colonization?

On the other hand, I can easily imagine nukes being part of scenario in which the mainland either invades Taiwan, or tries to bring Taiwan to its knees with a blockade.  If not actually detonated, then used to bully.  One tactic might be to threaten Japan or South Korea with nukes to dissuade the USA from intervening

For some period in the past, there were neutron weapons (though no evidence that any still exist in any weapons arsenal).  If produced and used, they cause virtually no blast-effect damage, the neutrons kill all life, and the infrastructure is left intact for future use.  Jimmy Carter considered building pure-fusion versions, but changed his mind.

The situation is not victory if one has won nothing. I can  define three sorts of victories:

1. Whole or partial extermination of an enemy populace while seizing what had been its assets, such as real estate and movable wealth. Example (and arguably the most infamous): the Holocaust.

2. Complete subjection of an enemy populace as slaves or serfs while taking over its real and portable assets, perhaps after destroying any potential leaders. Example: Nazi treatment of the Poles and Slavic peoples of the western Soviet Union.

3. Annihilation of the culture of a subjected people through compulsory or near-compulsory assimilation, although the subject people become a lesser caste aside from a few selected collaborators. Example: Spanish treatment of the First Peoples of the conquered Aztec and Inca empires. 

4. Destruction of the will of an enemy nation to wage further resistance by making clear that property will not be seized, and people will not be mistreated. US and British treatment of Germans, Italians, and Japanese after WWII. Guilty people may be prosecuted and executed, but that is as far as it goes.   

There is no victory if there are no people to subject or assets suitable for seizing. Deciding not to subject or expropriate is itself a choice for winning the peace. Who wants Chernobyl?

[John J. Xenakis]

** 10-Aug-2021 World View: Asian culture

John Wrote:> ...you realize very quickly that the culture in the Asian nations
> is very, very different than Western culture.

thomasglee Wrote:> Trying to get Westerners - who have never lived in Asia or studied
> the Asian culture - to understand this point is so very
> difficult.

Yes, and since you lived in Asia for 20 years, you really understand
Asian culture much better than almost all Americans.

Still, the Americans will learn again about Asian culture during the
next war. Loony left idiots in the Democrat party are particularly
clueless, and they will be the most shocked by what happens --
assuming they survive. Americans learned in the last war from things
like the Bataan Death March, but those lessons have been forgotten.

The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is
done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the
sun. Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it
hath been already of old time, which was before us. There is no
remembrance of former things; neither shall there be any remembrance
of things that are to come with those that shall come after. -Solomon

[John J. Xenakis]

** 10-Aug-2021 World View: Who blabbed?

tim Wrote:> I doubt its that unusual for a crisis era.

> Just as Hitler wrote his entire worldview in Mein Kampf its
> probably more natural then not in a crisis era to act
> emotionally.

You make a good point. I hadn't looked at it that way, but Chi
Haotian may have been really proud of his speech, and wanted
more people to see it.

The more I read the speech, the more I realize that it's a brilliant
masterpiece of military strategy and reasoning, well-grounded in
Chinese history and in Communist Party theory of Mao Zedong, Deng
Xioaping, and others. The idea that San Renxing, the Epoch Times
reporter, could have fabricated this long, complex, brilliant speech
is absurd.

So I can imagine that Chi Haotian gave this brilliant speech in
2003, and then retired. He was very proud of this speech, so
two years later he got permission to post it on boxum.com, assuming
that no one in the West would take it seriously.

And the comparison to Hitler's Mein Kampf is relevant as well. By
publishing the speech, he educates the true believers, while the
non-believers will simply ignore it.

So maybe Mazanec is right: Chi Haotian blabbed.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 10-Aug-2021 World View: Long Texts topic

I created a new topic called "Long Texts" as a place to
put long texts, rather than have to include lengthy texts in
news posts.

Here are the texts that I've included so far:


*** The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian - 2003
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=63225#p63225

This is the text of the Chi Haotian speech.


*** Epoch Times - Original article on Chi Haotian speech - 8/1/2005
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=63226#p63226

This is a rough machine translation of the Epoch Times analysis
that accompanied their release of the Chi Haotian speech. This
is really mind-blowing.



*** Jeff Nyquist comments
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=63227#p63227

These are really interesting comments by Jeff Nyquist that don't
appear in his blog entries. He tells how at first he thought the
Chi Haotian speech was a joke, but after two years he changed his mind.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Aug-2021 World View: CPI

As I understand it, the CPI is at 5.4%, in line with 5.39% last month.
The leveling off may indicate that the Law of Reversion of the Mean is
kicking in, though we can't be sure for a few more months.

I've updated my "Historical Consumer Price Index Change" table that I
posted earlier this year:

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.cpi.htm

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Aug-2021 World View: Computing inflation

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Do you realize that the government has changed and constantly
> changes the CPI? It has also happened more frequently, for
> whatever reason, during the last 40 years.

Let me try this a different way that should (if there's any sense left
in the world) end the argument.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a data series that has been
published for a long time by the Labor Department.

I am applying the Law of Reversion of the Mean to this series,
combined with observations about public debt, the velocity of money,
and generational era. This is pretty much a mathematical,
non-ideological, completely mechanical calculation. I actually have
no dog in this fight other than to use these mathematical tools and
report the result. If the CPI were to jump to hyperinflationary
levels, then my tools would be wrong and I'd have to reexamine the
tools, but so far that hasn't been necessary.

I agree that changes to the CPI are relevant to the methodology I use,
but so far this hasn't been a problem. In particular, if the Labor
Dept "miscomputes" the CPI in the same way every month, then the Law
of Reversion of the Mean should still apply. To put it another way,
if the Labor Dept uses a mathematical, non-ideological, completely
mechanical method for computing the CPI each month, and the CPI is
wrong in the same way each month, then the methology that I use should
still work.

Questions like whether I personally have ever had a decrease in living
expenses are perhaps interesting (though invasive), but irrelevant.
The methodology that I use is not affected by my personal living
expenses.

So my point is that you may have a completely different way of
computing inflation. Your way of computing inflation may include
measuring your own living expenses, or the living expenses of others.
That's fine, but irrelevant to my computation. If, by chance, you've
compiled the values of your version of inflation each month for the
last few decades, then post the results and I'll try applying the Law
of the Reversion of the Mean to your data series, and see what we come
up with.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Aug-2021 World View: Scenario in reverse

FullMoon Wrote:> How much of this scenario would true for our side as well? You've
> thought of it, hopefully there's some competent Pentagon planners
> ahead of the game as well? That's their job, isn't it?

So you're wondering if the American armed forces would conduct a major
nuclear attack on China, then use biological weapons to "clean up
China" by killing all the people so that Americans can then go and
colonize China? Is that what you're asking me?

Lol! I don't think so.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Aug-2021 World View: Mutual annihiliation

bankerswars Wrote:> Hi John, could you please explain the relationship between Britain
> and France? Why, after near a thousand years of war, suddenly
> don't the two countries fight wars any more?

England and France have a long history of animosity and crisis wars
(Camelot, Norman Conquest, Hundred Years War, Thirty Years War, War of
the Spanish Succession, Napoleonic Wars). But in World War II, France
and England were united against Nazi Germany, so they didn't fight
each other.

bankerswars Wrote:> Please also explain how Mutually Assured Destruction, or the
> guarantee of mutual annihilation would prevent wars.
> Thanks!

It doesn't prevent wars at all. Quite the contrary. It means that
one party will want to annihilate the other side quickly, before
it has a chance to retaliate.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 13-Aug-2021 World View: Invasions of America

JRNyquist Wrote:> I know from my discussions with a Russian defector, that Russia
> and China agreed to split North America between them as follows:
> Russia would get Alaska and parts of Canada, while China would get
> the lower 48 states (which contains the best land). The agreement
> on this was affirmed by the Russian General Staff in early
> 1992. This joint agreement on a future war against America is the
> basis for the Sino-Russian alliance.

DaKardii Wrote:> If Russia was planning to ally with China for a war against the
> US, it would've done so by now. So far, no formal alliance exists.

> Meanwhile, I find it highly implausible that Russia would sign
> onto any agreement that would allow China to get the lower 48
> states, much less in 1992, when Russia was being governed by the
> then-pro-West Boris Yeltsin.

spottybrowncow Wrote:> I don't think we are really capable of establishing that.

> Having said that, I don't see Russia as having the same
> motivations as China, in terms of global domination. China NEEDS
> vast tracts of land because they have 10X as many people as
> Russia. Russia has more land than it knows what to do with. China
> wants Vladivostok. How many Chinese have illegally taken up
> residence in Siberia already? China is taking Russia's women (I'm
> not sure how concerned they are about that). I'm hoping that John
> is right and Russia will be on our side. They surely know that if
> they help China topple the U.S., China will next move to "the
> issue of Russia."

DaKardii Wrote:> The closest China and Russia are to an alliance is the alleged
> modern-day equivalent to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact that is
> targeting Japan. I also wouldn't be surprised if similar pacts
> existed regarding other the countries which share a border with
> both China and Russia (Kazakhstan, the two Koreas, and Mongolia).

> But remember what happened to the original Molotov-Ribbentrop
> pact.

Reading through Jeff Nyquist's blog, it seems clear that Nyquist
believes that Russia is as much a threat to America as China is. As
both of you know, I don't believe that there's any possibility of that
for any number of reasons, including the reason that you gave that the
land-starved Chinese military want Russia's land, and the sex-starved
Chinese men want Russia's women.

Both Russia and Iran are now sucking up to China because China
supports them in the UN security council, and because China goes
around US sanctions. Russia's economy is particularly desperate, so
Putin is begging Xi to buy Russian oil and weapons, and is probably
making promises to help Xi's invasion of Japan or America in exchange
for getting Alaska and northern Canada -- which they may or may not
intend to fulfill.

Why did Stalin sign the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement with Hitler? Was
Russia's economy as desperate at that time as it is today? I don't
know.

Nyquist has also mentioned another comparison -- an unfulfilled
agreement by Germany and Mexico in 1917 where Mexico would support a
German invasion of America in return for getting back its lost
territories of Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. (However, California
would be reserved for Japan.)
https://cosec.bit.uni-bonn.de/fileadmin/...gat07a.pdf