Generational Dynamics World View

[Cynic Hero '86]

The problems of the EU are emblematic of the boomers dogmatic embrace of globalism. Boomers claim to prize democracy yet when the populace's feedback says "repeal free-trade" "kick out the refugees" and when asked again the feedback reply is the same thing: the boomer tyrannically imposes policy that not only is not the will of the people and what the populace requested by is often the direct opposite of what the populace wants. Boombers refused to allow genuine democracy if it results in decisions the boomer doesn't like. They would rather court complete collapse and possible destruction of western civilization instead of admitting that the 68er/Awakening ideals were wrong.

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-01-2017, 06:11 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Ahem, stop being such a butterball John.

What does this mean?

From Urban Dictionary: A girl who is overweight, if not obese, with a
short, round build. She rounds out in the belly with small breast, if
any at all, formed from excess body fat, packed into too-small a
wardrobe. This makes her look like the packaged Butterball turkeys so
many of us enjoy over the holidays. Butterball turkeys can often be
found basted in their own cheap liquor. That Butterball turkey stole
my shirt and stretched it! Now it smells like $5 wine!
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.ph...l%20Turkey

A couple of days ago I posted a list of the names people call me. I'd
add "butterball" to the list, but I don't know what to make of it.
What message are you trying to send me?

(03-01-2017, 06:11 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > How about all of those Boomer Wars of Choice? What about the
> blood and treasure y'all Boomers wasted on that stuff. Tongue And
> , I'm gonna do some victim blaming here as well 'cause y'all
> deserve some of that. So... what happened to the "if it's too
> good to be true, then it's a scam?" That means that if I'm to
> believe what you're writing on this subject, then ALL Silents and
> Boomers were such rubes. Surely not John? And of course not all
> X'ers were scammeisters.

Nobody's excusing the Boomers of anything. What I'm angry about is
that you Gen-Xers are trying to excuse the Gen-Xers of everything. We
Boomers like to see people punished when crimes are committed. But
Gen-Xer banksters caused millions of evictions and bankruptcies, and
all that Obama said was, "Oh, you poor Gen-Xer banksters are just
victims. Just donate a few billion dollars of your illegally gotten
money to my campaign, and we'll just forget the whole thing, and you
can go on and defraud other people, provided that you keep donating to
my campaign." Which is what they did in the libor, forex and other
Gen-X schemes. So call me whatever names you want, but I think that a
lot of these banksters should be in jail.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(03-02-2017, 12:14 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Nobody's excusing the Boomers of anything.  What I'm angry about is
that you Gen-Xers are trying to excuse the Gen-Xers of everything.  We
Boomers like to see people punished when crimes are committed.  But
Gen-Xer banksters caused millions of evictions and bankruptcies, and
all that Obama said was, "Oh, you poor Gen-Xer banksters are just
victims.  Just donate a few billion dollars of your illegally gotten
money to my campaign, and we'll just forget the whole thing, and you
can go on and defraud other people, provided that you keep donating to
my campaign."  Which is what they did in the libor, forex and other
Gen-X schemes.  So call me whatever names you want, but I think that a
lot of these banksters should be in jail.

Boomers want crimes punished: No they don't, when Millies went to school boomers had zero tolerance policies that treated bullies and victims who fought back physically the same. Boomers hated actually having to think so that the solely the aggressor was punished. The boomers love affair with the UN is derived from the same delusion about human nature they have had since childhood: that peace was the natural state of humans.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(02-28-2017, 07:25 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Actually, what would really happen is that at the first hint that the
US was deserting Taiwan, Congress would be outraged, Australia would
completely freak out, and Britain and India would soon follow, along
with Japan.  The US would quickly have to back down, just as Trump did
after calling Nato obsolete.  This is the "stable equilibrium"
that I was writing about yesterday.

Trump is merely biding his time with regards to dismantling NATO and reducing US participation in the UN. He will revisit that issue again that I am certain. The boomer establishment will not succeed in forcing the normalization of globalism as the 4T "crisis state" policy lexicon.

[Ragnarök_62]

(03-02-2017, 12:14 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(03-01-2017, 06:11 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   Ahem, stop being such a butterball John.

What does this mean?

From Urban Dictionary: A girl who is overweight, if not obese, with a
short, round build. She rounds out in the belly with small breast, if
any at all, formed from excess body fat, packed into too-small a
wardrobe. This makes her look like the packaged Butterball turkeys so
many of us enjoy over the holidays. Butterball turkeys can often be
found basted in their own cheap liquor. That Butterball turkey stole
my shirt and stretched it! Now it smells like $5 wine!
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.ph...l%20Turkey

A couple of days ago I posted a list of the names people call me.  I'd
add "butterball" to the list, but I don't know what to make of it.
What message are you trying to send me?

(03-01-2017, 06:11 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   How about all of those Boomer Wars of Choice?  What about the
>   blood and treasure y'all Boomers wasted on that stuff. Tongue And
>   , I'm gonna do some victim blaming here as well 'cause y'all
>   deserve some of that.  So...  what happened to the "if it's too
>   good to be true, then it's a scam?"  That means that if I'm to
>   believe what you're writing on this subject, then ALL Silents and
>   Boomers were such rubes.  Surely not John?  And of course not all
>   X'ers were scammeisters.

Nobody's excusing the Boomers of anything.  What I'm angry about is
that you Gen-Xers are trying to excuse the Gen-Xers of everything.  We
Boomers like to see people punished when crimes are committed.  But
Gen-Xer banksters caused millions of evictions and bankruptcies, and
all that Obama said was, "Oh, you poor Gen-Xer banksters are just
victims.  Just donate a few billion dollars of your illegally gotten
money to my campaign, and we'll just forget the whole thing, and you
can go on and defraud other people, provided that you keep donating to
my campaign."  Which is what they did in the libor, forex and other
Gen-X schemes.  So call me whatever names you want, but I think that a
lot of these banksters should be in jail.

1. |Butter balls.  http://allrecipes.com/recipe/10219/nut-butter-balls/  : a term of "mushy sentimentality". A rough translation of being unreasonably idealistic despite the fact that reality can indeed, bite.

2. Uh,  banksters, yes, I agree.  All banksters, regardless of generation, should not have been bailed out. I agree things should have been handled like the S&L crisis, FWIW.  So, I suppose we agree that banksters belong in Pelican Bay prison, to be the bitches of bubba.  OK?

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Mar-17 World View -- Australia pays refugees cash to return home, as U.S. resettlement deal falters

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Australia-US refugee swap deal appears to be faltering
  
• Australia and Germany paying asylum seekers cash to return home
  

****
**** Australia-US refugee swap deal appears to be faltering
****


Accommodations for refugees at the Manus Island detention center in Papua New Guinea (Reuters)

A deal in November between President Barack Obama and Australia's
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to allow 1,250 refugees being held in
Australia's refugee centers to be resettled in the United States is
proceeding slowly.

The refugees, from countries like Bangladesh and Nepal, are living in
two "detention centers" on Pacific islands, one on Papua New Guinea's
(PNG's) Manus Island, and one on the island nation of Nauru, under
agreements that Australia reached with both countries. However, the
United Nations and international refugee activists have condemned the
refugee camps, saying that under international law, valid asylum
seekers should be resettled on Australian soil. Australia has
resisted that in order to discourage human trafficking of refugees to
Australia.

Early in February, President Donald Trump called it "the worst deal
ever," but promised to honor the deal because he was bound by
agreements made by the previous administration. He confirmed that the
US will take in up to 1,250 of these refugees, after subjecting each
of them to "extreme vetting."

However, things have been going slowly, according to Australian
officials. Although some preliminary screening has taken place,
officials from the US Department of Homeland Security had not been
authorized to start formally vetting applicants.

Australia's Immigration and Border Protection secretary Mike Pezzullo
says that he believes that the delay is only temporary:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"As we've made clear, our colleagues in Homeland
> Security are not in a position yet to start their processes but
> they'll certainly be able to conduct themselves in a very
> expedited fashion given the amount of preliminary work that's been
> done."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

There's another major wrinkle to this deal, and it was only revealed
last week.

Last September, Turnbull announced that Australia would help the
United States deal with its refugee problem by taking refugees from
Costa Rica and resettling them in Australia. When the deal to
resettle refugees from Australia in the United States was announced in
November, Turnbull repeatedly denied that it was related to the Costa
Rica deal.

So last week, that denial was suddenly abandoned, and this was
apparently no surprise to anyone in Australia. Immigration minister
Peter Dutton did a complete flip-flop and said that the government
"wouldn’t take anyone until we had assurances that people are going to
go off Nauru and Manus. We want an outcome in relation to Nauru and
Manus."

An opposition spokesman said, "I mean, look, everyone knew it was a
deal, and last night Peter Dutton, playing politics as always, belled
the cat when he made it clear that it was contingent that taking
people from Costa Rica was contingent on America taking those from
Manus and Nauru, so clearly this was a deal." Australian Broadcasting and News.com (Australia)

Related Articles

• Trump will honor Australia refugee deal, despite calling it 'worst deal ever' (06-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Hundreds of Australian migrants to be resettled in the United States (11-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Australia to send 'boat people' to Papua New Guinea (21-Jul-2013)
  

****
**** Australia and Germany paying asylum seekers cash to return home
****

Facing heavy international criticism from the United Nations and
refugee activists, Australia has agreed to close down the two
"detention centers" on Nauru and on Papua New Guinea's (PNG's) Manus
Island by the end of the year.

Australia is encouraging refugees to return to their home countries
voluntarily by taking up US$25,000 in cash, or to face deportation
otherwise. Several dozen refugees have accepted the offer, according
to reports.

Germany is also paying refugees to return to their home countries, but
a lot less. Last year, Germany paid 54,000 asylum seekers cash to
return home, for a total payout of &euro;21.5 million ($22 million).
This would appear to average out to about &euro;400 per refugee.

Last month, Germany announced a "voluntary return" program to offer
&euro;1,200 ($1,275) to each asylum seeker to return home if their
asylum applications are rejected. Last year, Germany received some
700,000 asylum requests, around 60% of which were successful.
However, around 430,000 requests remained unanswered, many of which
date back to 2015 or earlier. Reuters (14-Feb) and Deutsche-Welle (20-Jan) and Reuters and Economist


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, Malcolm Turnbull,
Papua New Guinea, PNG, Manus Island, Nauru.
Mike Pezzullo, Costa Rica, Peter Dutton, Germany

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-02-2017, 03:38 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Trump is merely biding his time with regards to dismantling NATO
> and reducing US participation in the UN. He will revisit that
> issue again that I am certain. The boomer establishment will not
> succeed in forcing the normalization of globalism as the 4T
> "crisis state" policy lexicon.

Such child-like faith in a politician. I'm touched. Trump has
already flip-flopped on many campaign promises. The same will be true
of the ones about Nato and UN. Trump is the same as Obama and every
other politician. The only difference is that he'll use different
excuses. Thus, it wasn't a "promise," it was a "negotiating
position." And it wasn't a "flip-flip," it was a "deal." He can
write another book, "The Art of the Politician."

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-02-2017, 05:53 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > 1. |Butter balls.
> http://allrecipes.com/recipe/10219/nut-butter-balls/ : a term of
> "mushy sentimentality". A rough translation of being unreasonably
> idealistic despite the fact that reality can indeed, bite.

> 2. Uh, banksters, yes, I agree. All banksters, regardless of
> generation, should not have been bailed out. I agree things should
> have been handled like the S&L crisis, FWIW. So, I suppose we
> agree that banksters belong in Pelican Bay prison, to be the
> bitches of bubba. OK?

I never used to be particularly sentimental, and as I've become
increasingly ancient, I've also become increasingly cynical rather
than sentimental. Go figure.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(03-03-2017, 12:16 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(03-02-2017, 03:38 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   Trump is merely biding his time with regards to dismantling NATO
>   and reducing US participation in the UN. He will revisit that
>   issue again that I am certain. The boomer establishment will not
>   succeed in forcing the normalization of globalism as the 4T
>   "crisis state" policy lexicon.

Such child-like faith in a politician.  I'm touched.  Trump has
already flip-flopped on many campaign promises.  The same will be true
of the ones about Nato and UN.  Trump is the same as Obama and every
other politician.  The only difference is that he'll use different
excuses.  Thus, it wasn't a "promise," it was a "negotiating
position."  And it wasn't a "flip-flip," it was a "deal."  He can
write another book, "The Art of the Politician."

Time and time again you suggest that the goverments in Russia and China would adopt increasingly nationalistic policies driven by their younger generations. Yet you are somehow confident that the governments in the US, Europe, The Americas and Oceania would keep pluralistic and globalistic policies even though the younger generations in the west also propose centralized nationalistic states.

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-03-2017, 04:18 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Time and time again you suggest that the goverments in Russia and
> China would adopt increasingly nationalistic policies driven by
> their younger generations. Yet you are somehow confident that the
> governments in the US, Europe, The Americas and Oceania would keep
> pluralistic and globalistic policies even though the younger
> generations in the west also propose centralized nationalistic
> states.

There are two points.

First, what are nationalistic policies? Immigration control is a
nationlistic policy, and Brexit is a nationalistic policy, and we see
governments in America and Europe adopting those policies.

But leaving Nato is not a nationalistic policy -- in fact it's
probably anti-nationalistic, because many in "younger generations" see
it as protection against Russia, which is the real nationalistic
issue. Most people don't have a clue what "globalism" is. In fact, a
few months ago when a Breitbart commenter called me "globalist scum,"
I didn't have a clue what he meant. Actually, I still don't know what
he meant. So very few people equate nationalism with anti-globalism.

The second point is that Western democracies, especially America,
really are different from authoritarian regimes like Russia and China.
If some judge in a Moscow court ruled that one of Putin's edicts
violated the Russian constitution, that judge would next be ruling on
divorce custody cases in Siberia. Trump doesn't have that option with
the 9th circuit court.

Look at Trump's regulation to block immigration from seven countries.
It's been a month now, and that regulation is no closer to being
implemented than when Trump took office. Who knows if it will ever be
implemented?

The US Constitution was created during a generational Recovery era
(First Turning) following the Revolutionary War. The people at that
time, like the GIs and Silents in the 1950s, were extremely suspicious
of populism, nationalism, and xenophobia, so they designed the
Constitution to make it as hard as possible to do some things quickly.
They were particularly concerned about "the tyranny of the majority."
Obama whined about this constantly, and went on to use "his phone and
his pen." Trump is in the same situation, using his phone and his pen
to undo some of Obama's policies, but it's going to be very slow
going, and many of his promises won't be fulfilled.

[Ragnarök_62]

(03-03-2017, 12:19 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(03-02-2017, 05:53 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   1. |Butter balls.
>   http://allrecipes.com/recipe/10219/nut-butter-balls/ : a term of
>   "mushy sentimentality". A rough translation of being unreasonably
>   idealistic despite the fact that reality can indeed, bite.

>   2. Uh, banksters, yes, I agree.  All banksters, regardless of
>   generation, should not have been bailed out. I agree things should
>   have been handled like the S&L crisis, FWIW. So, I suppose we
>   agree that banksters belong in Pelican Bay prison, to be the
>   bitches of bubba.  OK?  

I never used to be particularly sentimental, and as I've become
increasingly ancient, I've also become increasingly cynical rather
than sentimental.  Go figure.

Ah, that is much better John.  You've graduated from "butterball" to "dude". And... you're correct of course wrt hacking.  So many hacks, so little in the way of proper mitigation schemes.  Yeah, with so much compute power getting wasted on marketing and so little on doing stuff as you've mentioned, encrypting sensitive information.  And so it goes pretty much.  A new day, a new hack.  So? we're supposed to trust digital money?  I think not.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic
  
• End of debt ceiling suspension on March 15 signals new Washington fiscal crisis
  
• The velocity of money keeps plummeting, indicating no economic growth
  

****
**** Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic
****


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at 24.90 on March 3, indicating a huge and growing stock market bubble (WSJ)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has exploded upward some 2,000 points
since the November 8 election, leading analysts to refer to it as "the
Trump rally." The increase was infectious, and stock markets in
Europe and Asia also surged. President Donald Trump tweeted on
Thursday, "Since November 8th, Election Day, the stock market has
posted $3.2 trillion in gains." It's believed that investors are
reacting to Trump's promises to promote job growth with huge
infrastructure spending and deep tax cuts to individuals and
corporations.

When the word "parabolic" is applied to a stock market index (alluding
to the mathematical curve called a "parabola"), it means that the
stock market as been rising so rapidly, it appears to be the prelude
to an imminent panic. Investors who have been popping their champagne
corks in ebullient celebration out of all the money they believe
they're making in the stock market are not using the word "parabolic,"
but that's what's going on nonetheless.

According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index)
on Friday morning (Mar 3) was at an astronomically high 24.90. This
is far above the historical average of 14, indicating that the stock
market bubble is still growing, and could burst at any time.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6
range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting
in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

A stock market panic and crash is coming with 100% certainty. To this
day, we still don't know what triggered the stock market panic in
October 1929, and why it happened at that time rather than a little
earlier or later, so we don't know what will trigger the approaching
stock market panic and crash, though we know with certainty that it's
coming.

David Stockman was President Ronald Reagan's budget director. He
criticized some of the Reagan administration's budget proposals, and
later said that Reagan has "taken him to the woodshed." That phrase
has stuck with him in the 30+ years that have passed, and today he's
considered to be a virtuoso budget authority. Like myself, he's been
writing about the stock market bubble for several years.

In an interview last week, Stockman was asked whether the "Trump
rally" can keep going. He replied:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I don’t think there is a snowball’s chance in the hot
> place that’s going to happen. This is delusional. This is the
> greatest suckers’ rally of all time. It is based on pure hopium
> and not any analysis at all as what it will take to push through a
> big tax cut. Donald Trump is in a trap. Today the debt is $20
> trillion. It’s 106% of GDP. ... Trump is inheriting a built-in
> deficit of $10 trillion over the next decade under current
> policies that are built in. Yet, he wants more defense spending,
> not less. He wants drastic sweeping tax cuts for corporations and
> individuals. He wants to spend more money on border security and
> law enforcement. He’s going to do more for the veterans. He
> wants this big trillion dollar infrastructure program. You put
> all that together and it’s madness. It doesn’t even begin to add
> up, and it won’t happen when you are struggling with the $10
> trillion of debt that’s coming down the pike and the $20 trillion
> that’s already on the books."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The huge stock market rise over the past few years hasn't made much
sense from a fundamental point of view, in view of the meteoric S&P
500 price/earnings index, and the recent further parabolic climb makes
even less sense. Even bullish analysts are saying that the stock
market is way overdue for a correction. Whether the stock market
continues, its parabolic climb, or has a small correction, or finally
has its expected major stock market panic remains to be seen.
Nikkei and David Stockman interview

Related Articles

• Explanation of Price/Earnings ratio and Stock Valuations (28-Aug-2015)
  
  
• S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio rockets to highest value in years (23-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel is lying about stock valuations (14-Apr-2012)
  

****
**** End of debt ceiling suspension on March 15 signals new Washington fiscal crisis
****

A law passed in 1917 places a limit on the amount of money that the
United States government can borrow. This amount is known as the
"debt ceiling" or "debt limit." When government debt reaches the debt
ceiling, then it can no longer borrow money to spend, until Congress
passes a law raising the debt ceiling to a higher value. In extreme
cases, the government has to shut down completely.

Every couple of years the debt ceiling has to be increased, and
there's a new political battle in Congress usually involving several
forms of extortion by both parties over what other spending programs
will be in the same bill as the debt ceiling increase.

Anyone who follows the political news will recall many well-publicized
debt ceiling crises, starting with the 28 day government shutdown in
1995. Recently, there have been debt ceiling crises in August 2011,
and January 2013.

You may wonder, Dear Reader, why there have been no debt ceiling
crises since 2013. The answer is that both parties decided in 2015 to
prevent a new debt crisis during the election campaign of 2016. So in
October 2015, they passed a bill suspending the debt ceiling, allowing
the Obama administration to spend as much money as it wanted.

Well, that debt ceiling suspension had an end date: March 15, 2017.
On that date, whatever the current debt is of the government, that
will be the new debt ceiling. That amount is approximately $20
trillion. In other words, within two weeks, the government will no
longer be able to borrow money, until Congress passes a new bill to
raise the debt ceiling.

The government can take "extraordinary measures" to keep running
without borrowing more money: not make payments to states, not pay
contractors, not pay bondholders, not pay Social Security, not pay tax
refunds, and so forth. This will cause a great deal of pain to the
people who don't get paid, but the government can keep running. But
estimates are that even these measures will run out in October or
November.

So Congress's agenda for this summer will be: repeal and replace
Obamacare, costing hundreds of billions of dollars; past a $1 trillion
infrastructure bill; pass hundreds of billions of dollars in corporate
and individual tax cuts; and oh, by the way, increase the $20 trillion
debt ceiling to something a lot higher. CNBC and CNN and
Washington Examiner

****
**** The velocity of money keeps plummeting, indicating no economic growth
****

Back in the 1980s and 1990s, politicians could always count on having
their debts and spending programs bailed out by economic growth.
Politicians are expecting the same thing today. All they talk about
is how they will spend money to grow the economy, and the economic
growth will wipe out the debt. It's a fairy tale that used to work at
the end of the last century, in a generational Unraveling era, but
stopped working about 13 years ago when we entered a generational
Crisis era.

What nobody wants to talk about is the velocity of money. This
indicates the rate at which people are willing to spend money. You
can't have economic growth if people aren't willing to spend money,
which means that the velocity of money would have to increase.
Instead, we have this:


Velocity of money, 1919 to 2017 (St. Louis Fed Fred Graph #366117)

When the real estate bubble burst in 2007, and the financial crisis
occurred, millions of people went bankrupt or lost their homes. At
that point, people stopped spending money. They used what money they
had to pay off their debts and save money. As a result, the velocity
of money has continued to fall steadily since then, just as it did
during the Great Depression and World War II.

That's the reason why there's been on economic growth in over eight
years, and why there won't be any substantial economic growth for the
foreseeable future.

Investors who are pushing the stock market to new parabolic heights
are completely oblivious to the fall in the velocity of money, and in
fact have the vaguest clue what it means. Similarly, they're
oblivious to the debt ceiling crisis that's approaching

And in news on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen indicated
that the Fed may increase interest rates on March 15. It's the Fed's
easy money policy that has been funding the stock market surge, so
chalk this up as one more risk factor for the stock market as the
summer approaches. Dow Jones

Related Articles

• Mainstream economists are oblivious to the velocity of money (30-Jan-2016)
  
  
• The bubble that broke the world (09-Oct-2007)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Trump rally, S&P 500 price/earnings ratio,
parabolic, David Stockman, Ronald Reagan, debt ceiling,
velocity of money, real estate bubble, financial crisis,
Janet Yellen

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[TeacherinExile]

Great post, John!  Yep, the Great Expectations of a Trump presidency have let loose the "animal spirits" in the stock market: a post-election rally that has all the earmarks of that final, euphoric stage of a long-running bull market.  For all those retail investors who have sat out the more-than-tripling in value of U.S. equities, it's as if to say, "C'mon, folks, the water's warm."  The "little guy" is always the last to join the party. 

More evidence that the stock market is a bit too "heady" right now:

"A sign investors have grown bolder: They’re ‘going long’ for the first time in a year"
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-sign-...2017-02-17

"S&P 500 ETF saw historic inflows in Wednesday’s monster rally"
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-...2017-03-02

And Sam Stovall had this observation about the rip-roaring market:[i]

...he's leery of the rush into stocks, as investor sentiment rises. "I'm more concerned with the mindset today of the fear of missing out, FOMO. All of the bull markets ... they all go out with a bang. They don't go out with a whimper," said Stovall. He said stocks usually have a double-digit gain before the end of bull market. "We're currently up 20 percent in from March 9 of 2015.

The yellow caution flag should be out now.[/i]

[Cynic Hero '86]

JohnX's economic quotes from that Reagan-advisor is just more globalistic propaganda by the same political class that got us into the mess. Xers and Millies are taking over the government under the nominal leadership of the boomer Trump. We want the Refugees OUT and infrastructure and defense spending increased. These spending changes would partially come from Cutting Medicare, Medicaid and SS; and partially from outright debt repudiation. There is no reason why struggling workers should have to pay heavy taxes just so affluent boomers can enjoy their desired cushy retirement unprecedented in history. Similar activities are taking place throughout Europe. Face it, the younger generations do not want a world without borders, they not fight for Muslims they despise just to protect them from Russians. They will not take bloody losses in war just to shield Taiwanese and Ukrainians from doing so. Xers and Millies when they look back at history; they don't praise the decision to pursue unconditional surrender as necessary for paving the postwar world. We don't look at the treaty of Versailles as a "good treaty" , we look at it as a moronic document whose terms led directly to another world war 20 years later. They don't like Churchill, Macarthur and Monty; they identify more with Patton, Bradley, Halsey and Lemay etc, as well as Zhukov and Konev on the Russian side and Rommel on the German side. We will not allow Trump to be railroaded out of office like what Churchill and Chamberlain did to Edward VIII in 1936, and what FDR did to Lindbergh's challenge politically in 1940 and 1941.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 5-Mar-17 World View -- Malaysia expels North Korean ambassador as relations deteriorate

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Malaysia expels North Korea's ambassador Kang Chol
  
• Malaysia accused of fronting North Korean weapons sales
  
• Kim Han-sol, son of Kim Jong-nam, under guard to prevent North Korean assassination
  
• New sanctions indicate China is running out of patience with Kim Jong-un
  

****
**** Malaysia expels North Korea's ambassador Kang Chol
****


North Korean Ri Jong Chol, suspected in the death of Kim Jong-nam, was reluctantly released by Malaysian authorities for lack of evidence (Reuters)

Malaysia has declared that Kang Chol, North Korea's ambassador to
Malaysia, is persona non grata, and has ordered him to leave
the country within 48 hours.

A month ago, no one would have expected relations between North Korea
and Malaysia to deteriorate so rapidly. Malaysia has been one of the
few countries of the world that have maintained good relations with
North Korea, even to the extent of permitting North Koreans to visit
Malaysia without a visa. But the assassination in Kuala Lumpur,
Malaysia's capital, of Kim Jong-nam, the half-brother of North Korea's
child dictator Kim Jong-un, has led to a series of investigations,
accusations, counter-accusations, threats and counter-threats that
have pushed the two countries close to severing diplomatic relations
completely.

Kim Jong-nam died in Kuala Lumpur airport after women used a
handkerchief to apply poison to his face in the middle of the airport,
and he died several minutes later from the poison on the way to the
hospital. The autopsy revealed that the assassination was extremely
sophisticated since the "poison" that was used was the nerve agent VX.
VX is so deadly that it's classified as a weapon of mass destruction,
and is banned by the United Nations. Touching even a drop of VX can
kill, so applying VX to the victim required a great deal of skill on
the part of the women. Although Malaysia has not explicitly accused
North Korea of having ordered the assassination, it's widely believed
that North Korea was responsible.

As soon as the assassination occurred, North Korea's ambassador Kang
Chol began a series of extremely offensive accusations directed at the
Malaysian government. He was on television almost every day, denying
that the dead man was related to Kim Jong-un, demanding that the body
be sent to the North Korean embassy immediately for cremation,
accusing the Malaysians of conducting an unauthorized autopsy, saying
that the investigation was untrustworthy, and accusing Malaysian
authorities of "colluding with the hostile forces towards us who are
desperate to harm us of malice," referring to South Korea.

Malaysian officials found these accusations to be extremely offensive,
and demanded that Kang Chol apologize for them. He has failed to do
so.

On Friday, Malaysia announced that it would cancel visa-free entry as
of Monday.

On Saturday, Chol was summoned to Wisma Putra, Malaysia's foreign
ministry, but he failed to show up. The foreign ministry then sent a
diplomatic note to Malaysia's embassy:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"1. Pursuant to my instructions, His Excellency
> Mr. Kang Chol, the Ambassador of the Democratic Peoples’ Republic
> of Korea (DPRK) was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign
> Affairs. ...
>
> 2. However, neither the Ambassador nor senior officials of the
> Embassy was in a position to be present at the Ministry.
>
> 3. For this reason, the Ministry has via a Diplomatic Note sent to
> the Embassy this evening, informing the DPRK government that His
> Excellency Mr. Kang Chol that the Malaysian government has
> declared him Persona Non Grata. He is expected to leave Malaysia
> within 48 hours from the scheduled time of the meeting, namely
> 6.00 p.m. 4 March 2017.
>
> 4. It can now be revealed that at 5.00 p.m., Tuesday, 28 February
> 2017, officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs ... met with
> the High Level Delegation from the DPRK.... During the meeting,
> the Malaysian government demanded a written apology from the DPRK
> for the accusations recently made against Malaysia by the DPRK
> Ambassador.
>
> 5. The DPRK delegation was informed that if no response is
> received by 10.00 p.m. that day, the Malaysian government would
> take measures that would best protect its interests.
>
> 6. Almost four days have passed since the deadline lapsed. No such
> apology has been made, neither has there been any indication that
> one is forthcoming. For this reason, the Ambassador has been
> declared Persona Non Grata. ...
>
> 10. It should be made clear – Malaysia will react strongly against
> any insults made against it or any attempt to tarnish its
> reputation.
>
> 11. It should be recalled that the Ambassador had alleged that the
> conduct of the investigation into the death of a DPRK citizen on
> 13 February 2017 indicates that the Malaysian government had
> something to hide and that Malaysia has colluded with outside
> powers to defame his country.
>
> Recent events, including the release of Mr. Ri Jong Chol ... is
> proof that the investigation is conducted in an impartial, fair
> and transparent manner, as befits a country that practices the
> rule of law.
>
> 12. The expulsion of the DPRK Ambassador comes at the heels of the
> decision of the Malaysian government ... that effective on Monday,
> 6 March 2017, citizens of the DPRK require visas to enter
> Malaysia. This is an indication of the government’s concern that
> Malaysia may have been used for illegal activities.
>
> 13. These measures are part of the process by the Malaysian
> government to review its relations with the DPRK."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The Star (Malaysia) and Free Malaysia Today and BBC and AFP

Related Articles

• Malaysia - N. Korea relations turn toxic over assassination of Kim Jong-un's half brother (24-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Assassination of Kim Jong-un's half-brother in Malaysia threatens relations with China and North Korea (19-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Was North Korea's Kim Jong-un's uncle eaten by ravenous dogs? (04-Jan-2014)
  

****
**** Malaysia accused of fronting North Korean weapons sales
****

The statement quoted above contains the sentence: "This is an
indication of the government’s concern that Malaysia may have been
used for illegal activities."

This sentence refers to a United Nations report to be released in a
few days accusing Malaysia of having violated United Nations sanctions
by permitting North Korea to sell weapons using an arms sales
operation in Malaysia under a brand called Glocom. According to the
report, Glocom is run by North Korea's top intelligence agency, and is
linked to two Malaysian companies, International Global System and
International Golden Services, controlled by North Korean shareholders
and director. The United Nations has asked the Malaysian government
to freeze the assets of these companies.

Malaysia is denying having violated UN sanctions, and is apparently
denying knowledge of Glocom's arms sales and relation to North Korea,
although that information has apparently been publicly available. At
any rate, Malaysia is giving the Glocom accusation as a reason for
ending visa-free travel from North Korea to Malaysia. Reuters and International Business Times and Foreign Policy

****
**** Kim Han-sol, son of Kim Jong-nam, under guard to prevent North Korean assassination
****


Kim Han-sol's girlfriend Sonia (L) studies at Oxford University

Since the assassination of Kim Jong-nam, there has been international
concern about his son, Kim Han-sol, who had apparently disappeared
from sight. At one point, the Malaysian authorities said that they
believed that he would come to Kuala Lumpur to identify his father's
body, but he never showed up.

Subsequently there have been reports that he under Chinese protection
in Macau. He has been advised not leave Macau, because it's feared
that he would also be assassinated.

Kim Han-sol is in the bloodline of North Korea's founding leader Kim
Il-sung. For that reason, Han-sol could serve as a legitimate leader
of North Korea. In particular, if China wanted to be rid of North
Korea's current leader Kim Jong-un, then China could have him killed
and replaced by Kim Han-sol.

Whether or not China might actually do that, it's not surprising that
the paranoid child dictator Kim Jong-un believes that the Chinese
might do it. It's believed by some analysts that that's the motive
why the assassination of Kim Jong-nam was ordered, and why the
assassination of Kim Han-sol could be ordered for the same reason.

Other reports indicate that Kim Han-sol has been advised to give up
his plans to study at Oxford University for fear of being
assassinated. Chinese authorities have reportedly told him that they
could not protect him there. He had previously planned to study at
Oxford starting in the fall, where his girlfriend Sonia is already
studying. Straits Times and Daily Mail (London) and Oxford Student

****
**** New sanctions indicate China is running out of patience with Kim Jong-un
****

If the Chinese DID want to eliminate Kim Jong-un, few people would be
surprised. Kim has caused numerous problems for China by conducting
nuclear and ballistic missile tests in violation of United Nations
sanctions. Now, the alleged use of the illegal weapon of mass
destruction, VX nerve agent, to kill Kim Jong-nam, who was living in
Macau under China's protection, is a new major embarrassment for the
Beijing regime.

According to an analysis by the Hong Kong based South China Morning
Post:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"China may now realize that continued inaction on
> North Korea conflicts with its rising international clout and
> contradicts its national interest. Kim’s weapons of mass
> destruction pose the same risk to China as they do to South Korea,
> Japan or the United States.
>
> North Korea’s relentless weapons build-up has fueled an arms race
> in the region. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India and Australia are
> scrambling to upgrade their defenses. South Korea’s decision to
> deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense [THAAD] system to
> contain the North’s nuclear capability is perhaps the
> highest-profile reaction, a move that Beijing is fiercely fighting
> against for fear it could also be used to curb China.
>
> All this risks triggering a nuclear domino effect in Northeast
> Asia. Trump has even suggested that Japan and South Korea acquire
> nuclear weapons to counter any challenge from North Korea.
>
> In this volatile environment, China’s continued support of a
> regime widely seen as a state sponsor of terrorism and a major
> threat to peace in the region will only damage Beijing’s
> international image and undermine relations with most of its
> important trade partners – South Korea, Japan and the US, among
> others."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

China announced two weeks ago that it would impose its own sanctions
on North Korea by blocking imports of coal. The SCMP analysis says
that this decision was tied to South Korean politics and the
deployment of THAAD:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Before the missile test and the assassination, South
> Korea’s public was fairly evenly split into two camps on how to
> handle ties with Pyongyang [North Korea]: those who wanted to
> engage North Korea peacefully, usually on the left, and those who
> wanted to take a more forceful stand, usually on the right. This
> division could tip the balance of the presidential election
> scheduled for later this year.
>
> The position on North Korea has serious and immediate
> repercussions for China. South Korea in recent months has lost its
> patience with the North and it deployed a new American missile
> defense system, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). This
> is officially aimed at the North, but it clearly can also be used
> against China.
>
> Seoul [South Korea] in turn decided on THAAD for many reasons,
> including out of frustration at Beijing’s inability to rein in
> Pyongyang. If China cannot get the North to pursue reasonable
> politics and give up its wave of threatening nuclear and missile
> experiments, then the South has to rely more on American military
> protection. In the same way, the US felt that if China was unable
> to control Kim, it had to take steps to guarantee the status quo
> of the region.
>
> An electoral victory of the left could reopen a discussion on
> THAAD, something that with a new right-wing president is more
> unlikely.
>
> The assassination of Kim Jong-nam now casts a whole new spell on
> South Korean politics. It reinforces the chances of the right, but
> it also makes very difficult if not impossible for the left to
> think of engaging the North or withdrawing THAAD."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The SCMP analysis concludes that China hopes that refusing to import
North Korean coal will cause the country "to buckle and give in to
demands from the outside world," though it also worries that the plan
may backfire and cause Kim Jong-un to "up the ante, daring the whole
planet to attack." South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and South China Morning Post

Related Articles

• China announces it will block imports of North Korea's coal (19-Feb-2017)
  
  
• China, Russia vociferously object to South Korea's THAAD missile system deployment (28-Jul-2016)
  
  
• America's likely response to N. Korean test: THAAD, Aegis missile defense systems (14-Feb-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Malaysia, North Korea, Kim Jong-nam,
Kim Jong-un, Kang Chol, China, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
VX, weapons of mass destruction, Glocom,
South Korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD,
Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur International Airport, Macau,
Oxford University

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John J. Xenakis
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[Ragnarök_62]

John Wrote:*** 4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic



****
**** Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic
****


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at 24.90 on March 3, indicating a huge and growing stock market bubble (WSJ)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has exploded upward some 2,000 points
since the November 8 election, leading analysts to refer to it as "the
Trump rally."  The increase was infectious, and stock markets in
Europe and Asia also surged.  President Donald Trump tweeted on
Thursday, "Since November 8th, Election Day, the stock market has
posted $3.2 trillion in gains."  It's believed that investors are
reacting to Trump's promises to promote job growth with huge
infrastructure spending and deep tax cuts to individuals and
corporations.

<snip>
The huge stock market rise over the past few years hasn't made much
sense from a fundamental point of view, in view of the meteoric S&P
500 price/earnings index, and the recent further parabolic climb makes
even less sense.  Even bullish analysts are saying that the stock
market is way overdue for a correction.  Whether the stock market
continues, its parabolic climb, or has a small correction, or finally
has its expected major stock market panic remains to be seen.
Nikkei and David Stockman interview

Yes, no kidding.  However... Ya know something?  I have a secret, yes a secret.  Here it is.  "That which is unsustainable , will at some point, quit. With that said,
how about a new investing idea?  I think this may be a winner, yes a winner, John. My idea is this.  Look for stocks which are more ridiculous that the market average.
Yes John.  Here's some stuff I did.  You see, let's take Sears Holdings, basically managed by a hedge fund. Yes, a hedge fund. Most hedge funds are stupid.
So , with Sears Holdings, we have Eddie Lampert who is CEO while Sears has crashed. Now, you see there's a valid reason behind said crash. Sears is losing money,
hands over fist. Yes it is John. Have a look at whatever stocky markety stuff you so desire. I bet they'll have a similar conclusion.   Sears Holdings should be worth about $0.0 , but just look and see it isn't.  See.... that's where opportunities lies. Yes, this is a wonderful example. So if a stock looks really, really overvalued, here's what you do.  You purchase PUT options, yes put options. This is how you have a good chance to beat the market. Yes, even so called rubes can make the money this way, instead of buying into an overvalued market. Yes, I completely agree with you, this market is insane, yes, it's insane.  So... you look for awesome bets for the downside, which is what the whole market should do, and it will, but most likely beyond when both of us think it should crash. Yes, it should crash tomorrow, next month of something sane like that. But JOHN, the market isn't sane and you can't just state the market is rationale. No, the market isn't rationale at all. Emotion runs the stupid thing. So the best thing to do is find favorable bets like Sears and find a way , like PUT options to get a high probability payoff. You see, this is playing the stocky market just like Texas Hold'em.   Pocket aces don't of course always win, but , I tell you, I'm perfectly willing to get the money in when I get that hand.  Selling Sears short is just like getting deald pocked aces in Hold'em.  Sears should be worth 0, but it isn't. That means there are suckers on the other side of that trade, just waiting to get fleeced.  I dare say, I deserve to get the wool , instead of Wall Street.


Related Articles

• Explanation of Price/Earnings ratio and Stock Valuations (28-Aug-2015)
  
  
• S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio rockets to highest value in years (23-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel is lying about stock valuations (14-Apr-2012)
  

Quote:****
**** End of debt ceiling suspension on March 15 signals new Washington fiscal crisis
****

A law passed in 1917 places a limit on the amount of money that the
United States government can borrow.  This amount is known as the
"debt ceiling" or "debt limit."  When government debt reaches the debt
ceiling, then it can no longer borrow money to spend, until Congress
passes a law raising the debt ceiling to a higher value.  In extreme
cases, the government has to shut down completely.

Every couple of years the debt ceiling has to be increased, and
there's a new political battle in Congress usually involving several
forms of extortion by both parties over what other spending programs
will be in the same bill as the debt ceiling increase.

Anyone who follows the political news will recall many well-publicized
debt ceiling crises, starting with the 28 day government shutdown in
1995.  Recently, there have been debt ceiling crises in August 2011,
and January 2013.

You may wonder, Dear Reader, why there have been no debt ceiling
crises since 2013.  The answer is that both parties decided in 2015 to
prevent a new debt crisis during the election campaign of 2016.  So in
October 2015, they passed a bill suspending the debt ceiling, allowing
the Obama administration to spend as much money as it wanted.

Well, that debt ceiling suspension had an end date: March 15, 2017.
On that date, whatever the current debt is of the government, that
will be the new debt ceiling.  That amount is approximately $20
trillion.  In other words, within two weeks, the government will no
longer be able to borrow money, until Congress passes a new bill to
raise the debt ceiling.

The government can take "extraordinary measures" to keep running
without borrowing more money: not make payments to states, not pay
contractors, not pay bondholders, not pay Social Security, not pay tax
refunds, and so forth.  This will cause a great deal of pain to the
people who don't get paid, but the government can keep running.  But
estimates are that even these measures will run out in October or
November.

So Congress's agenda for this summer will be: repeal and replace
Obamacare, costing hundreds of billions of dollars; past a $1 trillion
infrastructure bill; pass hundreds of billions of dollars in corporate
and individual tax cuts; and oh, by the way, increase the $20 trillion
debt ceiling to something a lot higher.  CNBC and CNN and
Washington Examiner

.... Republicans.  What a bunch of morons.

Quote:****
**** The velocity of money keeps plummeting, indicating no economic growth
****

Back in the 1980s and 1990s, politicians could always count on having
their debts and spending programs bailed out by economic growth.
Politicians are expecting the same thing today.  All they talk about
is how they will spend money to grow the economy, and the economic
growth will wipe out the debt.  It's a fairy tale that used to work at
the end of the last century, in a generational Unraveling era, but
stopped working about 13 years ago when we entered a generational
Crisis era.

What nobody wants to talk about is the velocity of money.  This
indicates the rate at which people are willing to spend money.  You
can't have economic growth if people aren't willing to spend money,
which means that the velocity of money would have to increase.
Instead, we have this:


Velocity of money, 1919 to 2017 (St. Louis Fed Fred Graph #366117)

When the real estate bubble burst in 2007, and the financial crisis
occurred, millions of people went bankrupt or lost their homes.  At
that point, people stopped spending money.  They used what money they
had to pay off their debts and save money.  As a result, the velocity
of money has continued to fall steadily since then, just as it did
during the Great Depression and World War II.

That's the reason why there's been on economic growth in over eight
years, and why there won't be any substantial economic growth for the
foreseeable future.

Investors who are pushing the stock market to new parabolic heights
are completely oblivious to the fall in the velocity of money, and in
fact have the vaguest clue what it means.  Similarly, they're
oblivious to the debt ceiling crisis that's approaching

And in news on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen indicated
that the Fed may increase interest rates on March 15.  It's the Fed's
easy money policy that has been funding the stock market surge, so
chalk this up as one more risk factor for the stock market as the
summer approaches.  Dow Jones

Related Articles

• Mainstream economists are oblivious to the velocity of money (30-Jan-2016)
  
  
• The bubble that broke the world (09-Oct-2007)
  

That's from, rising wealth inequality.  The only fixes I see are either a big huge crash that fixes wealth inequality or the fat cats wake up and realize that the stuff they're doing, ain't sustainable.  Like I said, it will stop, somehow....

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-Mar-17 World View -- China's South China Sea policy related to food security in times of war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Vietnam protests China's fishing ban in the South China Sea
  
• China's fishing ban related to food security in times of war
  
• North Korea fires four ballistic missiles into sea near Japan
  

****
**** Vietnam protests China's fishing ban in the South China Sea
****


Chinese fishing fleet in the South China Sea (Hakai Magazine)

China, whose claim of sovereignty over the South China Sea has been
declared illegal by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration
(PCA) in the Hague, has imposed a fishing ban on the North China Sea,
including regions that are in the exclusive economic zones and
historical fishing grounds of Vietnam and the Philippines. China's
announced ban begins on May 1 and ends on August 16.

The South China Sea is estimated to hold 11 billion barrels of oil,
109 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 10 percent of the world’s
fisheries. Furthermore, 30% of the world’s shipping trade flows
through the South China Sea.

Vietnam's foreign ministry spokesman said, "Vietnam resolutely opposes
and rejects the regulation issued by China." Vietnam will dispatch
fisheries surveillance ships across its territorial waters, focusing
on areas where China has issued its fishing ban. The fisheries
surveillance ships will protect and assist Vietnamese fishermen in
these areas.

News reports don't indicate what form this protection will take.
China has blocked other nations from fishing in their traditional
fishing grounds by using armed coast guard vessels, and ramming
fishing boats or threatening military action. It's not known whether
Vietnam's fisheries surveillance ships will be armed, and whether
there will be a possibility of a military confrontation that could
escalate.

According to reports last year, Vietnam is deploying mobile rocket
launchers on five of its bases in the Spratly Islands, in order to
confront China. VN Express (Vietnam) and AP and VN Express

Related Articles

• Vietnam deploys rocket launchers in South China Sea to confront China (11-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Russia and Vietnam agree to mutual defense cooperation pact to counter China (02-May-2015)
  

****
**** China's fishing ban related to food security in times of war
****

For years, China's has had a goal of food self-sufficiency, but with
20% of the world's population, but only 9% of the world's arable land,
this kind food security has always been out of reach. Thus, while
China’s grain production has increased over 44% between 2003 and 2015,
its grain imports (including soybeans) during the same period
skyrocketed by nearly 400%, indicating that growth in domestic grain
production is unable to keep up with population growth.

The history of agricultural in the 68 years of the People's Republic
of China has been dismal. The worst episode was the Great Leap
Forward in 1958-59, a man-made famine where Mao Zedong, killed tens of
millions of people through starvation, slaughter and executions. In
the past 30 years, China has achieved a remarkable increase in grain
productivity, but that achievement was accomplished through overuse of
chemical fertilizers and pesticides coupled with intensive farming
practices that have contributed to severe degradation of land quality,
and an even larger scale of land pollution. Today, China’s
agricultural sector is dominated by hundreds of millions of small
household farms, low and inefficient management at the rural level,
and severe corruption of local government officials. In addition,
China is facing a water crisis, with China's agriculture using
two-thirds of the country's water resources.

According to the International Public Policy (IPP) organization in
Singapore, China should abandon its tight control over agricultural
resources, and resort to using the global agricultural market, as
other countries do.

However, the IPP points out that this will be insufficient "in times
of war (a full-scale war with the United States or other big
countries) which leads to the total collapse of the global food
markets," and will have to take further steps to prepare for war with
the U.S. or other countries:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"To prepare for the worst case scenario, the Chinese
> government needs: 1) to maintain sufficient strategic food
> reserves which can meet the country’s food needs based on
> subsistence consumption levels during the period that new food
> products are produced; 2) protect key agricultural resources,
> particularly arable land and fresh water so as to develop
> agricultural potential which can be quickly utilized to produce
> enough food for the country in times of war."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Control of the South China Sea is important to China not only for its
energy deposits, but for food security -- depending on massive amounts
of fish from the SCS to supplement its agricultural output, especially
in case of war.

However, China's huge fleets of fishing boats have overfished the SCS,
and have depleted a number of species. Thus, food security is at the
heart of China's demands for a moratorium on fishing in the South
China Sea from May 1 to August 16.

However, China's is also using military means to enforce its
moratorium on other countries, notably Vietnam and the Philippines.
Vietnam is making its own military preparations to confront the
Chinese, as described above.

In the case of the Philippines, access to fish has become a bargaining
chip. Last fall, Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte announced a
cutoff of relations with the United States, and also announced that
the relationship with the U.S. would be replaced by a relationship
with China. As a result of that agreement with China, Philippines
fishermen were once again permitted to fish in the country's
traditional fishing grounds around Scarborough Shoal.

Nonetheless, the Philippines military still has close ties with the
U.S. military, and several Philippines ministers are expressing alarm
that China might military the Scarborough Shoal, and gain military
control of the entire South China Sea. International Public Policy Review and Jamestown and Hakai Magazine (Canada)

Related Articles

• Mongol invasion of China in 1206 has impact today (06-Dec-2010)
  
  
• New book, 'Unhappy China,' stokes Chinese nationalism and anti-Americanism. (12-Apr-2009)
  
  
• A generational view of China's growing melamine food disaster (17-Nov-2008)
  
  
• US will upgrade Philippines military bases, despite Duterte's threats (31-Jan-2017)
  

****
**** North Korea fires four ballistic missiles into sea near Japan
****

As I'm writing this article on Sunday evening (ET), North Korea has
launched four ballistic missiles into Japanese waters, once again in
violation of UN Security Council resolutions.

Once again, this is a new embarrassment to China. This is
particularly true right now, as China's National People's Congress is
in session, during which China's leaders are undoubtedly giving
speeches condemning South Korea's decision to deploy the Terminal High
Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) antimissile system, which China hates.
Thus, these missile launches can only be seen as a message that North
Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un is sending to China, presumably to
get revenge for China's decision to halt coal imports from North
Korea.

Once again, North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un is a major
problem for the Chinese government, and sooner or later China may
decide to do something about it. Reuters and Yonhap News (Seoul)

Related Articles

• New sanctions indicate China is running out of patience with Kim Jong-un (05-Mar-2017)
  
  
• China announces it will block imports of North Korea's coal (19-Feb-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Vietnam, South China Sea, Spratly Islands,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Mao Zedong, Great Leap Forward,
Philippines, Scarborough Shoal, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
North Korea, South Korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 7-Mar-17 World View -- Herders invade ranches in Kenya, ambush and kill British ranch owner

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Herders invade ranches in Kenya, ambush and kill British ranch owner
  
• The ranchers (farmers) versus the pastoralists (herders)
  

****
**** Herders invade ranches in Kenya, ambush and kill British ranch owner
****


A herder walks home with his camels in Kenya in January, after walking kilometers in search of pasture and water during drought. (The Nation)

Ranch co-owner Tristan Voorspuy, a British citizen and former British
army officer, was found shot dead on Sunday on his ranch in Laikipia
province in Kenya. Alongside him was the dead carcass of the horse he
had been riding. It's believed that Voorspuy was ambushed by herders
who for months have been invading ranches in order to get water and
grazing land for their animals, in the middle of a drought.

Voorspuy was co-owner of the 24,000 acre colonial era Sosian ranch in
Laikipia in the Rift Valley of Kenya, and owner of Offbeat Safaris
Ltd. The ranch is a wildlife preserve and tourist attraction.

On Saturday, Voorspuy went to visit the site where two cottages had
been burned down by herders on Friday. It appears that burning the
cottages was a trap to lure Voorspuy, as he was apparently ambushed
and killed when he arrived.

This weekend's attack on the Sosian ranch and murder of its owner were
not the first such event. Ranches and ranchers have been under attack
by invading herders for months, seeking water and grazing land for
their animals. This particular attack on the Sosian ranch has become
international news because Voorspuy was a British citizen and father
of two.

The perpetrators are believed to be from the Pokot and Samburu tribes.
Both of these tribes are described as "pastoralists," meaning that
they're a society of nomadic herders who move from place to place as
changes in weather require. The Pokot and Samburu tribes had fought a
very bloody war against each other in 2006, displacing thousands of
people and stealing each other's livestock, but now they've apparently
made up and they're joining together to attack ranchers. It's
believed that heavily armed militias of thousands of Pokot and Samburu
have been invading and attack ranches.

In January, herders attacked a 42,000-acre private ranch. According
to a witness:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The entire property is being invaded by large numbers
> of armed people, overrunning it with cattle, sheep and goats. They
> have destroyed kilometers of fences, cut and stolen wires and dug
> out posts. Things become really bad yesterday. It is as if
> someone has been been paid to cut wire and pull out posts
> everywhere. We are getting reports from all parts of Laikipia that
> cattle are heading our way."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The ranches in this county are the last stronghold of wildlife outside
Kenya's national parks and reserves, and is home to 6,000 elephants
and other animals including lions and the rare Grevy's zebra.

The Pokot and Samburu tribes are offshoots of the Kalenjin tribe.
There are five major tribes in Kenya: the Kikuyu (6,622,576), the
Luhya (5,338,666), the Kalenjin (4,967,328), the Luo (4,044,440) and
the Kamba (3,893,157).

Kenya's last generational crisis war was the Mau-Mau rebellion that
climaxed in 1956. In 2008, there was extremely brutal violence
between the Kikuya, Kalenjin and Luo tribes, and it's widely feared
that the new round of attacks by herders on ranchers in Laikipia is
the first sign of a new round of more widespread violence, and
possibly a full-scale war. Nairobi News and The Star (Kenya) and IRIN - United Nations and The Nation (Kenya-31-Jan-2017)

Related Articles

• Kenya settles into low-level violence on the way to Rwanda (01-Feb-2008)
  
  
• Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war (07-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** The ranchers (farmers) versus the pastoralists (herders)
****

What's happening in Kenya is a variation of something that I've
described many times -- the battle between farmers and herders.
Farmers and herders have two completely different lifestyles. Battles
between farmers and herders occur in country after country, as I've
described many times in Central African Republic, Rwanda, Burundi,
Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America in the 1800s. The farmers
accuse the herders of letting the cattle eat their crops, while the
herders accuse the farmers of planting on land that's meant for
grazing. If the farmers put up fences, then the herders knock them
down.

The genocidal war in Sudan's western region of Darfur began in the
1980s as low-level conflicts between the light-skinned "Arab" herder
tribes and the dark-skinned "African" farmer tribes. The herders
turned into the Janjaweed militias who began, in the early 2000s, to
ride in on camels and horses and invade the Darfurian farms with a
scorched earth policy including mass murders, rapes and genocide.

The iconic genocidal war between Hutus and Tutsis in Rwanda and
Burundi in 1994 was the culmination of centuries of generational
crisis wars between the two tribes, where the Tutsis were the herders
who controlled the land, and the Hutus were the farmers who worked for
the Tutsis.

The generational crisis civil war in the Central African Republic
began three years ago as a war between ethnic groups aligned along a
Muslim herder versus Christian farmer fault line. As we recently
described, the war in the central regions of the country around the
cities of Bambari and Bria is morphing from a religious war to an
ethnic war between the Fulani tribe, a nomadic herding ethnic group,
and the Gula and Runga tribes, which are primarily farming ethnic
groups. As both sides are Muslim, this is now primarily an ethnic
war. In fact, the Gula and Runga tribes are now allying with some
Christian tribes that are also farmers.

In Kenya, the recent attacks by pastoralist herders on ranches is a
variation of the age-old war between herders and farmers. Kenya's
last generational crisis war was the Mau-Mau rebellion that climaxed
in 1956. Now, 61 years later, Kenya is going deeper into a
generational Crisis era, and we can expect the war between
pastoralists and ranchers, and even between different ethnic groups of
pastoralists, to continue to worsen.

Related Articles

• Ban Ki Moon blames Darfur genocide on global warming (19-Jun-2007)
  
  
• Generational history of Hutu and Tutsi tribes (30-Apr-2015)
  
  
• Central African Republic war morphs from religious to ethnic war (01-Mar-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Laikipia, Rift Valley,
Tristan Voorspuy, Sosian ranch, Offbeat Safaris,
Pokot tribe, Samburu tribe, Mau-Mau rebellion,
Kalenjin tribe, Kikuyu tribe, Luhya tribe, Luo tribe, Kamba tribe,
Rwanda, Burundi, Hutu tribe, Tutsi tribe, Sudan, Darfur, South Sudan,
Central African Republic, Banbari, Bria,
Fulani tribe, Gula tribe, Runga tribe

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-Mar-17 World View -- Tensions grow on Korean peninsula over THAAD and N. Norea-Malaysia relations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Malaysia's relations with North Korea continue rapid deterioration
  
• China promises retaliation over surprise deployment of THAAD in South Korea
  
• South Korea threatens to sue China in World Trade Organization (WTO)
  

****
**** Malaysia's relations with North Korea continue rapid deterioration
****


Yellow tape and armed guards on Tuesday around North Korea's embassy in Malaysia prevent anyone from leaving (AP)

Malaysia and North Korea appear close to completely severing
diplomatic relations. They've already expelled each other's
ambassadors, and the war of words continues to be increasingly
vitriolic.

After Kim Jong-nam, the half-brother of North Korea's child dictator
Kim Jong-un, was assassinated on February 13 in Kuala Lumpur airport
in Malaysia, North Korea's ambassador to Malaysia, Kang Chol, began a
series of bitter vitriolic attacks on Malaysia's government, accusing
the the Malaysians of conducting an unauthorized autopsy, saying that
the investigation was untrustworthy, and accusing Malaysian
authorities of "colluding with the hostile forces towards us who are
desperate to harm us of malice," referring to South Korea.

Apparently the reason that North Korea did not want an autopsy to be
performed was that they did not want the Malaysians to know that King
Jong-nam had been killed with VX nerve gas, which is so deadly that
it's considered to be a "weapon of mass destruction," and its use is
forbidden by international law. The fact that North Korea used a
weapon of mass destruction on Malaysian soil to kill someone has
infuriated Malaysia's government.

Malaysia would like to question several of the North Korean embassy
staff for involvement in the assassination. This has further
infuriated the North Koreans, who say that the embassy staff all have
full diplomatic immunity. This is actually only true for the top
officials in the enmity.

On Tuesday, North Korea announced that no citizen of Malaysia in North
Korea would be permitted to leave. This has infuriated the entire
Malaysian population, and some are saying that it was tantamount to
war. Malaysia's prime minister Najib Razak, said that this was a
violation of international law:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"They cannot act at their whims and fancy, violating
> the international law to hold Malaysians hostage. It is indeed
> unacceptable not only by Malaysia, but also the
> world."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Eleven Malaysians are known to be in North Korea: three embassy staff,
six family members and two others who work for the United Nations’
World Food Program. Malaysian officials said they were safe. “There
is no threat to their lives. Let us not come to that point yet,” said
Reezal Merican, the deputy foreign minister.

Malaysia then banned North Koreans from leaving Malaysia, but
different reports have different versions of this ban. Some say that
only embassy personnel would be banned from leaving, and there are
probably only a few dozen of these. Other reports say that all North
Koreans are banned from leaving, and there are thousands of these.
One reports says that Malaysia's government at first wanted to ban
just the embassy staff, and then changed its mind to ban all North
Koreans.

In another move, it turns out that both Malaysia and Singapore have
been enabling North Korea to conduct illegal activities on their
territories. Singapore last summer already cracked down on
transshipments through its ports following new international sanctions
imposed in the wake of last year's nuclear and missile tests.
Malaysian officials have been closing their eyes to North Korean
weapons sales through Malaysian companies, in violation of sanctions
against North Korea, and now Malaysia is shutting down those
businesses.

It seems that relations between Malaysia and North Korea become
harsher and more vitriolic every day. And with both countries holding
each other's citizens hostage, the rapid deterioration in relations is
liable to continue. The Star (Malaysia) and Washington Post and Free Malaysia Today

Related Articles

• Malaysia expels North Korean ambassador as relations deteriorate (05-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Malaysia - N. Korea relations turn toxic over assassination of Kim Jong-un's half brother (24-Feb-2017)
  

****
**** China promises retaliation over surprise deployment of THAAD in South Korea
****

Diplomatic relations between China and South Korea also appear to be
deteriorating, especially after Tuesday's surprise move by South Korea
and the United States to begin deploying the Terminal High Altitude
Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system by the first delivery of
large components. THAAD is composed of six mobile launchers, 48
interceptors, an X-band radar and the fire and control unit.

Originally, the deployment was to have been completed by the end of
2017, but now it appears that it will be completed this summer. The
speedup is being attributed to North Korea's aggressive schedule of
nuclear and missile tests, with increased danger of attack on North
Korea's neighbors, including South Korea.

China has been furiously objecting to the deployment of THAAD, ever
since it was announced in 2014. After Tuesday's delivery of THAAD
components, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We strongly oppose the decision to deploy THAAD and
> will take necessary steps to defend our security interest. South
> Korea and the US will bear the consequences. ... We urge them not
> to go further down that wrong path."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In response, the White House said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We stand shoulder to shoulder with Japan and South
> Korea in doing what we can to protect that region in particular
> from an attack from North Korea. We understand the situation. We
> continue to work with them. As I mentioned, the president spoke to
> both leaders yesterday and we provided a readout of those calls.
> But we obviously understand the concerns of China, but this is a
> national security issue for them."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

China's state media said that the reason the deployment was speeded up
was not because of a threat from North Korea, but because the
deployment would help conservative politicians in elections likely to
be held in a few months.

China says that THAAD is not designed to intercept North Korean
missiles, which travel at too low an altitude for THAAD. Furthermore,
North Korea already has enough technology to avoid interception by
THAAD. However, THAAD's "over the horizon" radar is able to see deep
into China and detect military movements. Yonhap (Seoul) and Korea Herald
and Xinhua (Beijing)

Related Articles

• America's likely response to N. Korean test: THAAD, Aegis missile defense systems (14-Feb-2017)
  
  
• China's fury grows over South Korea's plan to deploy THAAD anti-missile system (10-Aug-2016)
  
  
• China, Russia vociferously object to South Korea's THAAD missile system deployment (28-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** South Korea threatens to sue China in World Trade Organization (WTO)
****

China's spokesman didn't specify what the "consequences" would be, but
they're assumed to be economic sanctions targeting South Korea.

China has already ordered its travel agencies to stop selling packaged
tours to Korea, and has banned Korean cosmetics and foods. South
Korean pop stars and entertainers have been barred from appearing on
Chinese TV programs since October.

To see what other steps China might take, we can recall the steps that
China took to punish Japan when Japan displeased China. In the 2010
confrontations, China took revenge on Japan by terminating shipments
of rare earth minerals, needed for manufacturing of many of Japan's
electronic products. In 2012, the Beijing government encouraged the
Chinese people to demonstrate and protest against Japanese businesses
in China. The government urged protesters not to use violence, but
that part of the message was clearly ignored, as protesters torched a
Panasonic factory and Toyota dealership, looted and ransacked Japanese
department stores and supermarkets in several cities.

South Korea is considering filing a complaint with the World Trade
Organization (WTO) over using economic sanctions for political
purposes. South Korea might also file a lawsuit under the investment
clause of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement.

However, some South Korea functions are counseling caution, as China
might retaliate further. Korea Times and Barrons

Related Articles

• China declares economic war on Japan, and sends 1,000 boat flotilla (18-Sep-2012)
  
  
• Rare earths controversy polarizes China's relations (27-Oct-2010)
  
  
• China turns the screws on a humiliated Japan (26-Sep-2010)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Malaysia, North Korea, Kim Jong-nam, Kim Jong-un,
Najib Razak, Kang Chol, VX nerve gas, Singapore, Geng Shuang,
South Korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD,
Japan, World Trade Organization, WTO

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Mar-17 World View -- Thousands flee from Myanmar into China to escape army clashes with ethnic militias

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands flee from Myanmar into China to escape army clashes with ethnic militias
  
• Myanmar faces an investigation for ethnic cleansing of Rohingya Muslims
  

****
**** Thousands flee from Myanmar into China to escape army clashes with ethnic militias
****


United Wa State Army (UWSA) rebel soldiers marching (Irrawaddy)

Thousands of Chinese-speaking ethnic Kokang people living in the
Kokang region of Myanmar, along the border with China, have fled in
panic across the border into China, to escape clashes between
Myanmar's military and Kokang’s Myanmar National Democratic Alliance
Army (MNDAA). The Kokang MNDAA is one of four ethnic militias in the
Northern Alliance, fighting the army. China is demanding that the
army bring the region under control, but that's unlikely to happen,
since the army is one of the belligerents.

In October 2015, the government of Myanmar (Burma) concluded a peace
agreement with its armed ethnic groups that had been under negotiation
since 2011. According to the government rhetoric, the agreement was
"bringing hope" that the entire country would soon be "at peace."
However, of the 15 armed ethnic groups in Burma, only eight signed the
agreement, while the others indicated that they wished to continue
fighting Burma's army.

In November of last year, four of the non-signed formed the Northern
Alliance, and and launched a series of violent attacks on military
outposts and police stations across the northern part of the country.
Tens of thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes, many
crossing the border into China.

China's army is on alert along the border with Myanmar, but it has not
intervened so far. Instead, it's backing the United Wa State Army
(UWSA), an organization with roots in the Communist Party of Burma, a
militia with 20,000 members of the ethnic Wa community, and is
supplying them with heavy weaponry.

This week, the UWSA took the lead in hosting a three-day meeting of
seven armed ethnic militias, forming a political bloc to negotiate
with the Myanmar government. The militias include the MongLa National
Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Shan
State Progress Party/Shan State Army-North (SSPP/SSA-N), Ta’ang
National Liberation Army (TNLA), the Kokang Myanmar National
Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Arakan Army (AA).

One can only guess what China's motivation is in supporting the UWSA,
but presumably there are two objectives -- bring about stability on
the Myanmar side of the border, and use the UWSA to gain leverage
against Myanmar's government.

However, the clashes between the army and the MNDAA are continuing,
and panicky civilians continue to flee across the border into China.
Some analysts have expressed concern that this could spiral out of
control into a larger war. Irrawaddy News (Myanmar) and Deutsche Welle and VOA and Asia Times

Related Articles

• China puts army on high alert along border with Burma (Myanmar) (22-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Myanmar (Burma) government fails to conclude nationwide peace agreement (15-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Generational history of Burma (Myanmar) (26-Sep-2007)
  

****
**** Myanmar faces an investigation for ethnic cleansing of Rohingya Muslims
****

Myanmar's army says that it has halted "clearance operations," which
have been targeting Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine state which the United
Nations has called ethnic cleansing and possible crimes against
humanity.

Myanmar's army conducted a scorched earth attack on Rohingya Muslims
burning down thousands of homes and buildings in dozens of villages.
The army committed massacres, rapes and other atrocities that have
displace hundreds of thousands of people, with tens of thousands to
fleeing for their lives across the border into Bangladesh.

Burma has tacitly admitted guilt by forbidding any journalists or
humanitarian groups from entering Rakhine State to investigate.
Burma's government agrees that the satellite images show that Rohingya
villages are being burned down, but they make the laughable claim that
the Rohingyas are burning down the villages themselves in order to
embarrass the government. There have also been dozens of videos
showing Burma's police beating and raping Rohingya civilians, but
Burma's government claims that all of these videos are phony and have
been fabricated.

This follows repeated xenophobic attacks by Buddhists, led by Buddhist
monk Ashin Wirathu and his "969 movement," against the Rohingya
Muslims, including rapes, torture and other atrocities committed by
Buddhists, targeting the Rohingyas. The Rohingyas have a darker skin
than Burmese, and they speak a Bengali dialect. The actions by the
Buddhists were similar to the actions by the Nazis against the Jews.

The European Union is under growing pressure to lead
an independent international investigation into the atrocities
in Burma, and is expected to sponsor a resolution on March 16
to the United Nations Human Rights Council.

According to Phil Robertson from Human Rights Watch’s Asia division,
"It’s time for the soldiers on the ground committing these atrocities,
and their superiors in command authority, to be held accountable, and
that is precisely what the Human Rights Council is going to do."
Frontier Myanmar and Reuters (16-Feb)

Related Articles

• Devastating UN report on Burma shows scale of ghastly atrocities by Buddhists targeting Muslim Rohingyas (04-Feb-2017)
  
  
• UN: Burma (Myanmar) committing 'ethnic cleansing' of Rohingyas (29-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
  
  
• Generational history of Burma (Myanmar) (26-Sep-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, China,
Northern Alliance, MongLa National Democratic Alliance Army, NDAA,
Kachin Independence Army, KIA, Ta’ang National Liberation Army, TNLA,
Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army-North, SSPP/SSA-N,
Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, MNDAA,
Arakan Army, AA, Wa, United Wa State Army, USWA,
Rakhine State, Rohingya, Bangladesh, Ashin Wirathu, 969 movement,
Phil Robertson, Human Rights Watch

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe