Generational Dynamics World View

[Ragnarök_62]

[quote pid='3534' dateline='1466564607']
>   sent a copy over to my backup drive as per my policy for non
>   operating system data on my Linux box.  The only fly in the
>   ointment is that it's copyrighted. That means I can't send the
>   stuff to a 3rd party and of course you can always enforce a "take
>   down" and I'd have to remove the stuff I saved. I would of course
>   comply with any take down notice as required by law.  
[/quote]

Quote:Thanks.

No problem.

Quote:Also, I'm not sure what a "take down" is exactly, but I think the
ointment is permanently out of the tube.

Take down is where I'd have to delete something if it was copyrighted and I got a request to do so.

[John J. Xenakis]

(06-22-2016, 10:02 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Take down is where I'd have to delete something if it was
> copyrighted and I got a request to do so.

Well, the only reason that I even know that you have the files is that
you said so. Tens of thousands of people will read that article, on
my web site, in e-mail, on this web site, and on the Breitbart web
site, and any of them could download the files. If I wanted to "take
down" and reverse the request, there is no practical way of
determining who actually downloaded the files and where to find them.
So I wouldn't even have a way to notify them, let alone make some kind
of demand.

In 15 years, I've received two requests to remove something from my
web site. One was the Janet Jackson wardrobe malfunction picture,
which is all over the internet anyway. The other was a PDF file from
a financial firm that someone secretly forwarded to me and I made
available to my readers. In both cases, I received an e-mail message
threatening legal action. In both cases, I ignored the e-mail
message. In both cases, I never heard anything more.

For the most part, copyright laws have been almost completely
invalidated by the internet. Even if you make an entire book
available as a PDF file on your web site, the author or publisher
would have to incur at least hundreds or thousands of dollars
in legal fees to get it taken down if a polite request is ignored
or refused.

The triggering issue is whether someone is making money on the
copyrighted item. If someone is making thousands of dollars on a
copyrighted item, then spending the legal fees might be worth it. In
my case, where I make no money whatsoever, it makes no sense at all to
spend hundreds or thousands of dollars in legal fees to get me to
delete a picture. And if they did, then they know that I'd replace
the picture with a statement about what mean, nasty idiots they are.

You wrote in your previous message, "That means I can't send the stuff
to a 3rd party...." Since the 3rd party could theoretically download
the same files from my web site himself, I don't see any legal reason
that's stopping anyone from sending the files to a 3rd party.

Indeed, the whole objective in making the files available is
so that the files will continue to exist if I get hit by a truck
tomorrow, so I would actually encourage people people to send
them to an appropriate third party, if desired.

So all in all, Ragnarök, I don't think you need have any fears in
saving the files or send them to a third party. If you published my
book under your own name, and you made a lot of money doing it, then
you'd probably hear from me about it, but I don't think that's going
to happen.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Jun-16 World View -- Turkey drops lifting of Gaza blockade demand for normalization with Israel

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey and Israel close to restoring diplomatic relations
  
• Turkey drops demand for lifting the blockade of Gaza
  
• Proposal for offshore seaport raises controversy
  
• Russia improves military ties with Israel, will not veto relationship with Turkey
  

****
**** Turkey and Israel close to restoring diplomatic relations
****


Proposed seaport on artificial island off coast of Gaza

Reports indicate that Turkey and Israel are close to restoring
diplomatic relations which deteriorated sharply in 2010 after the
"Mavi Marmara" incident, during which nine citizens of Turkey were
killed by Israel's military.

Turkey was the first Muslim country to formally recognize the state of
Israel in 1949, and relations where generally good for decades. When
Turkey's current president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, came to power in 2002
as prime minister, relations became more tense, but still cordial.

Relations seriously deteriorated, starting in 2008, over Israel's
relationship with Gaza. Israel imposed a total blockade of Gaza, and
Egypt also closed the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Israel,
triggering violent protests by the Gazans. (From January 2008: "In dramatic scene, 60,000 Gazans pour into Egypt through holes blasted through border wall"
)

Tensions grew in Gaza through 2008. Hamas, the terrorist group
governing Gaza, was launching dozens of rockets into Israeli territory
every day, while Israeli air strikes struck weapons sites in Gaza, but
also killed dozens of Gazans. In December, the exchanges of fire
escalated into a full-scale war (Operation Cast Lead), beginning with
air strikes followed by a full-scale ground invasion.

At the end of January 2009, Israel's president Shimon Peres and
Erdogan got into a passionate debate at the World Economic Forum in
Davos. After a heated exchange, a furious Erdogan walked out of the
meeting, and went home to a hero's welcome when he returned to Turkey.

In June 2010, international activists send an aid flotilla to Gaza to
break Israel's blockade. Israel's military intercepted the flotilla
and boarded the lead boat, the Mavi Marmara. In the ensuing fracas,
nine Turkish citizens were killed. The entire incident was a disaster
for Israel. ( "1-Jun-2010 News -- Wide condemnation of Israel over Gaza flotilla"
)

As a result, Turkey effectively cut off almost all relations with
Israel. It's only now, six years later, that reports indicate that a
formula has been found for reconciliation.

It's believed that the situation in Syria has caused Erdogan to be
more willing to compromise than he has been in the past. There are
three reasons:

• Turkey has become isolated since the shooting down of a
  Russian warplane last year.
  
• Turkey and Israel need to share military intelligence on
  Syria.
  
• Turkey's trade with Saudi Arabia has been crippled by the Syria
  war, since truck traffic through Syria and Iraq has been severely
  cut.

These reasons have apparently convinced Erdogan to compromise with
Israel. Negotiators from Turkey and Israel are expected to complete a
draft agreement in the next few days. Jerusalem Post and Washington Post and AP (30-Jan-2009)

****
**** Turkey drops demand for lifting the blockade of Gaza
****

Erdogan has consistently made three demands of Israel before relations
could be restored. Israel would have to formally apologize to Turkey,
and Israel did that in 2013. Israel would have to pay compensation to
the families of the Turks who died in the Mavi Marmara confrontation,
and reports indicate that Israel has agreed to pay $20 million.

The third requirement was that Israel must lift the blockade of Gaza.
Turkey has repeatedly said that this is an absolute requirement.
Israel has repeatedly said that lifting the blockade was absolutely
impossible.

According to a report on RFI, the Turkey has dropped the requirement
to lift the blockade, based on a compromise:

• Turkish aid groups will be allowed to deliver assistance to
  Gaza, and possibly build a hospital. The assistance will be delivered
  to an Israeli port, and from there transported to Gaza.
  
• Turkey and Germany will build a desalinization plant, to
  compensate for the shortage of water in Gaza.
  
• An artificial island will be built off the coast of Gaza, to be
  used as a seaport for deliveries to Gaza.
  
• Turkey will lift its veto of Israel's cooperation with Nato. As a
  Nato member, Turkey has effectively prevented Israel from cooperating
  with Nato.
  
• Turkey will expel some leading members of Hamas leadership, which
  Israel believes are hiding out in Turkey, although Turkey has always
  denied this.

Jerusalem Post and Hurriyet (Ankara) and i24News (Israel) and Deutsche Welle

****
**** Proposal for offshore seaport raises controversy
****

The third item in the list above, the proposal for an offshore seaport
has been around for a while, and is extremely controversial.

The proposal was first put forward in 2011 by Israel's transportation
minister Yisrael Katz. The seaport would be built in international
waters, located on a 5-km-long artificial island. The port will be
connected to the land by a detachable bridge, which will be under
Israeli supervision. Israel would be able to close the bridge at any
time, if necessary.

According to Katz:

[indent]<QUOTE>"I do not think it is right to lock up two million
people without any connection to the world. Israel has no
interest to make life harder for the population there. But because
of security concerns we can’t build an airport or seaport in
Gaza."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, there are plenty of critics.

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas is said to be opposed to
the project, since it would cut the final strings connecting Gaza to
the West Bank. Palestinians criticize the project as another excuse
to delay removing the Gaza blockade.

An Israeli commentator, Martin Sherman calls the proposal "so
glaringly absurd that it transcends what you mistakenly believed was
the pinnacle of imbecility," and says that it would encourage further
terrorism. Oil Price and Washington Post and Israel Hayom (27-May)

****
**** Russia improves military ties with Israel, will not veto relationship with Turkey
****

At a meeting in Moscow on June 7, Russia's president Vladimir Putin
and Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to strengthen
military ties, and to hold joint naval and air military exercises
during the summer.

At the same meeting, Putin said that he felt "exceptionally positive"
about efforts to restore relations between Israel and Turkey. Putin
said, "We believe that any movement of these states and peoples toward
each other will have a positive impact on the international situation
in general. We welcome this process." Bloomberg (8-June) and Debka (10-June)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Israel, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Mavi Marmara, Gaza, Operation Cast Lead, Shimon Peres,
Germany, Hamas, Nato, Yisrael Katz, Mahmoud Abbas, West Bank,
Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Benjamin Netanyahu

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

You keep mentioning how the Obama administration, the Clintons, The Merkel administration (in Germany), the current french administration, the current polish administration, and the Aquino administration would have to handle the crisis, but these assertions are nonsense. These assertions are nonsense because none of the administrations that I've just mentioned would be in power at the time we enter the main phase of the crisis. You have never mentioned for example and seemingly refuse to make any mention in regards to how the Trump administration in the US, the Social Democrats in Germany, the Le Pen administration in France, the Law and Justice administration in Poland, and the Duterte administration would handle the crisis?

[John J. Xenakis]

(06-23-2016, 08:37 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > You keep mentioning how the Obama administration, the Clintons,
> The Merkel administration (in Germany), the current french
> administration, the current polish administration, and the Aquino
> administration would have to handle the crisis, but these
> assertions are nonsense. These assertions are nonsense because
> none of the administrations that I've just mentioned would be in
> power at the time we enter the main phase of the crisis. You have
> never mentioned for example and seemingly refuse to make any
> mention in regards to how the Trump administration in the US, the
> Social Democrats in Germany, the Le Pen administration in France,
> the Law and Justice administration in Poland, and the Duterte
> administration would handle the crisis?

I've never said how any of those politicians would handle the crisis.
Politicians are completely unpredictable. I don't know what they're
going to do next week, let alone in a crisis.

Based on core generational theory, what we know is that when
Regeneracy events begin to occur, and the country faces an existential
threat, then the population will panic out of fear for the existence
of their nation and its way of life, and they'll put aside their
political differences and unite behind the country's leader. Beyond
that, the scenario can only be guessed at.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(06-23-2016, 09:10 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(06-23-2016, 08:37 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   You keep mentioning how the Obama administration, the Clintons,
>   The Merkel administration (in Germany), the current french
>   administration, the current polish administration, and the Aquino
>   administration would have to handle the crisis, but these
>   assertions are nonsense. These assertions are nonsense because
>   none of the administrations that I've just mentioned would be in
>   power at the time we enter the main phase of the crisis. You have
>   never mentioned for example and seemingly refuse to make any
>   mention in regards to how the Trump administration in the US, the
>   Social Democrats in Germany, the Le Pen administration in France,
>   the Law and Justice administration in Poland, and the Duterte
>   administration would handle the crisis?  

I've never said how any of those politicians would handle the crisis.
Politicians are completely unpredictable.  I don't know what they're
going to do next week, let alone in a crisis.

Based on core generational theory, what we know is that when
Regeneracy events begin to occur, and the country faces an existential
threat, then the population will panic out of fear for the existence
of their nation and its way of life, and they'll put aside their
political differences and unite behind the country's leader.  Beyond
that, the scenario can only be guessed at.

No one is going to unite behind Merkel, Obama and Hillary. People would unite behind the leaders I mentioned in the second half of my paragraph but not behind the current leaders. For example If Russia invaded Europe today the German people would demand Merkel's ouster then unite behind someone else. If war broke out with Russia or China Today, Obama would be turned out of office immediately and the people would force the government to proclaim Trump their commander and chief. Because If the existence of the country of even of western civilization itself would be placed at stake. Then that battle would not be on behalf of world globalism and the nonsense of a "world without war" or "a world without power politics". If Hillary is president she would be thrown just out like in my example using Obama, for the same reasons.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Jun-16 World View -- South China Sea: China's list of supporters is found to be delusional

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China claims that 60 countries support its South China Sea policy
  
• China cites UNCLOS in disagreement with Japan
  
• South China Sea: Which countries are on China's side?
  
• Cognitive dissonance and doubling down in China
  

****
**** China claims that 60 countries support its South China Sea policy
****


China's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hua Chunying

Any day now, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, a United Nations
international court in the Hague is supposed to issue a ruling on a
case brought by the Philippines against China on the merits of China's
claims to the entire South China Sea. The case is brought under the
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which China
claims doesn't apply to them.

China always says that its claims "are indisputable," and this is
clearly a lie, since the claims are widely disputed. In fact, China's
claims are at least delusional, and may even be fabricated, as we
reported a few days ago. ( "22-Jun-16 World View -- China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims revealed as hoax"
)

Not only is China delusional about some of their evidence, it now
appears that they're also delusional about the kind of support they're
getting from the international community.

Even though the Court's ruling would be little more than symbolic, and
even though there would be no way to enforce the Court's ruling
against China, and even though China has already said that it will
ignore any ruling, and even though China has bitterly complained about
and even threatened the Philippines for even going to the Court in the
first place, it's clear that Chinese officials are close to a state of
panic over a possible ruling against them.

Out of anxiety, China is resorting to a full-court press in the
propaganda realm, and are doing everything they can to convince other
countries to endorse their position. In particular, China is
targeting many distant countries and land-locked countries, with no
direct interest in the South China Sea.

Last week, at China's regular Foreign Ministry press conference, the
following bizarre exchange took place:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Q: We notice that the governments of Sierra Leone and
Kenya have recently joined in the chorus supporting China's South
China Sea position. Nearly 60 countries have publicly endorsed
China's stance, and more and more countries have shown their
support to China. Is the Chinese government behind this? Is the
Chinese government trying to extend its "circle of friends" on the
South China Sea issue?

A: The South China Sea issue is supposed to be an issue between
China and a few littoral countries of the South China Sea.
... [Further comments evading the question]

Q: First question, how many countries have publicly endorsed
China's position on the South China Sea issue up to now? The
previous press conference mentioned 40, but just now a journalist
said nearly 60. ...

A: On your first question, a journalist just mentioned that nearly
60 countries support China. Compared with seven or eight countries
that hold the opposite position, I think the figure itself speaks
volumes."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

According to the first questioner, unnamed but presumably from Chinese
media, said that Sierra Leone and Kenya, as if it matters whether two
African country are for or against China.

In the second answer, the Foreign Ministry spokesman makes official
China's belief that it's supported by 60 countries, with only seven or
eight opposed. As we'll see below, these claims are delusional.

Why are these numbers even relevant? There is some suggestion that
China is trying to line up countries on its side, so that if the Court
rules against China, then China can go to the United Nations General
Assembly and try to get a vote rejecting the Court's decision. If
successful, China could then claim that the United Nations itself has
rejected the decision of a United Nations court.

Anything is possible, but I would be surprised if anything like a
majority of the United Nations members voted to reject the United
Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). UNCLOS is a part
of international law that has been used to settle many disputes and
keep the peace since the end of World War II, and if UNCLOS is
rejected in this case, then it will open up many disputes that were
previously thought to be settled. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and China's Foreign Ministry (14-Jun)

****
**** China cites UNCLOS in disagreement with Japan
****

China claims to completely reject the United Nations Convention on the
Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and has said that this international law may
not apply to China's claims in the South China Sea.

And yet, in a completely different dispute, China's Foreign Ministry
cited UNCLOS in support of its view on the status of Okinotori Islands
in relation to a disagreement between Taiwan and Japan. The details
of the dispute are not important to us, but here's the beginning of
the quote from the Foreign Ministry spokesman:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Q: On May 23, the Taiwan authority said that "it does
not take a particular stance in legal terms" on whether Okinotori
is an island or a reef. It is commented that the new Taiwan
administration has gone backwards on the issue of Okinotori,
undermining the rights and interests of Taiwan fishermen. How do
you comment?

A: Okinotori is an isolated reef in the west Pacific distant from
the Japanese soil. Pursuant to the UN Convention on the Law of the
Sea (UNCLOS), Okinotori cannot have the exclusive economic zone
and the continental shelf. Waters off 12 nautical miles of it are
high seas, where all countries are entitled to freedoms on the
high seas such as fishing and so forth. On April 2012, the
Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) adopted
the recommendations in regard to the submission made by Japan on
the outer limits of its continental shelf, rebuffing Japan's
illegal claims based on Okinotori."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

It's striking that China is appealing to UNCLOS when it's convenient,
just a few weeks before a Court decision that it has already rejected,
along with UNCLOS. If, as suggested above, China goes ahead with a
plan to try to get the UN General Assembly to strike down UNCLOS, you
can be certain that the debate will mention China's position on
Okinotori.

This just adds to a growing picture that Chinese officials are
delusional regarding their claims to the South China Sea. China's Foreign Ministry (24-May) and The Diplomat

****
**** South China Sea: Which countries are on China's side?
****

China is claiming that 60 countries are on China's side, with only
seven or eight opposed. However, an analysis by the Asia Maritime
Transparency Initiative (AMTI) of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies has done the actual research on this issue.
AMTI has searched publicly available, official statements in an effort
to determine the real positions taken by countries.

What does it mean to be "on China's side"? What AMTI was looking for
was not whether countries take one side or the other on China's claims
in the South China Sea, but whether countries take one side or the
other on whether the Court's ruling will be binding.

AMTI has identified 57 countries that China appears to be its
supporters. Of those, 8 have publicly confirmed their support, 4 have
denied Beijing’s claim of support, and 45 have remained publicly
silent or have issued statements that are considerably vaguer than
indicated by China. In contrast, 11 countries plus the European Union
have said that the arbitral award will be legally binding and have
called on both China and the Philippines to respect it.

The AMTI has divided these countries into four groups:

• Publicly supporting China’s position that arbitral
  tribunal is illegitimate:
  
  Afghanistan, The Gambia, Kenya, Lesotho, Niger, Sudan, Togo,
  Vanuatu
  
  
• Has not publicly confirmed China’s claim of support (Countries
  marked with an asterisk are members of the Arab League, for which
  no statement of support is publicly available, but from which
  China claims support):
  
  Algeria*, Bahrain*, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina,
  Brunei, Burundi, Cameroon, Comoros*, Djibouti*, Egypt*, Eritrea,
  Ethiopia, Gabon, India, Iraq*, Jordan*, Kuwait*, Kyrgyzstan, Laos,
  Lebanon*, Libya*, Malawi, Mauritania*, Morocco*, Mozambique,
  Pakistan, Palestine*, Qatar*, Russia, Saudi Arabia*, Serbia,
  Sierra Leone, South Africa, Somalia*, Sri Lanka, Syria*, Tanzania,
  Tunisia*, Uganda, United Arab Emirates*, Venezuela, Yemen*,
  Zambia, Zimbabwe
  
  
• Publicly denied china’s claim of support:
  
  Cambodia, Fiji, Poland, Slovenia
  
  
• Publicly supporting outcome of arbitral proceeding as binding
  (Countries marked with an asterisk are members of the European
  Union who have not issued independent statements supporting the
  arbitration, but whose support is based upon EU statements
  presented as the position of all members):
  
  Albania, Australia, Austria*, Belgium, Bosnia&Herzegovina,
  Botswana, Bulgaria*, Canada, Croatia*, Cyprus, Czech Republic*,
  Denmark*, Estonia*, Finland, France, Germany, Greece*, Hungary*,
  Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia*, Liechtenstein, Lithuania*,
  Luxembourg, Malta, Oman*, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands*, New
  Zealand, Poland*, Portugal*, Romania*, Slovakia*, Slovenia*,
  Spain*, Sweden*, United Kingdom, United States, Vietnam

So China's Foreign Ministry has it backwards: Lots of nations provide
no support for China, while only seven are supporting China.

Two of these nations, Afghanistan and Lesotho, are landlocked. Four
of them, The Gambia, Kenya, Niger and Sudan, are far away in Africa.
Vanuatu is a South Pacific island, once again far from the South China
Sea. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) and The Diplomat

****
**** Cognitive dissonance and doubling down in China
****

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, cognitive dissonance
explains many of history's greatest disasters.

The term "cognitive dissonance" refers to the mental problems that
occur when deeply held beliefs are contradicted by real life events.
The literature contains numerous examples of what happens. Some of
the most dramatic examples are those who believe that God end the
world on a specific day, and only true believers will be saved. In
many cases, people quit their jobs, sell all their belongings and
settle all their affairs, and then wait for the named day.

When the world doesn't end, they have to deal with the consequences of
their actions. According to psychologist Leon Festinger's 1957 book
"A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance," there are two kinds of behaviors
that are common. Some admit they were wrong and devote themselves to
returning to their previous lives.

Others "double down." They say that they were right all along, but
that God decided to give the world one more chance. They then devote
their entire lives to proselytizing. It's possible that several
religions began this way.

China's cognitive dissonance is an extremely dangerous situation.
China's population apparently widely believes that China's South China
Sea claims are "indisputable." This is already clearly wrong, and
will be publicly proven wrong if, as expected, the Court rules against
China. As we described a few days ago,
China has put forward "ironclad proof" in the form of evidence
that's at best delusional and at worst fabricated. And China's
rejection of UNCLOS is, in my opinion, not going to be widely
supported, especially after China itself has cited UNCLOS when
convenient.

A commenter to my last article

wrote the following:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Since Sun Tzu introduced his Art of War in the 5th
century BC, making false claims, as a form of deceiving an
opponent to gain advantage, has been prevalent in China since his
time. In particular, to eliminate the influence of Indian Buddhism
in China in the Three Kingdom Period (220-280), Chinese historian
Yu Huan stated in his work ‘Weilue’ (lit: ‘A Brief History of
Wei’): ‘The Buddhist Sutra are on the whole similar to the Canon
of Lao-tzu in content. That is because when Lao-tzu left the
passes in the west, he traversed the Western Regions and reached
India, where he converted the barbarians into Buddhists’ (see
Kenneth Ch’en’s ‘Buddhism in China: A Historical Survey’ published
by Princeton University Press (1964, page 51). In this context,
China’s "Ironclad Proof" is no exception. However, it is a clear
indication that Beijing has been so desperate to use whatever it
could imagine to support for its nine-dash line
claim."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This commenter confirms what we've already known: China is doing
everything to prepare for war, and probably already considers itself
to be at war.

There is no chance at all that Chinese officials will admit that
they've been wrong, or that its population will change its opinions.
China is already heavily militarizing the South China Sea, and is
already attacking Vietnam's and Philippines' ships with its military.
China will react to its cognitive dissonance by doubling down. At
best, this will mean a great deal vitriolic anger on the part of
Chinese officials. Eventually, it will mean an irreversible military
action that will spiral into full-scale war. Wired (Aug 2010)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea,
Permanent Court of Arbitration, Philippines,
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, UNCLOS,
Japan, Taiwan, Okinotori Islands,
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, AMTI,
Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS,
cognitive dissonance, Leon Festinger, Sun Tzu, Art of War

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Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Jun-16 World View -- Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Successful 'Brexit' referendum vote throws UK and EU into political chaos
  
• Global stock markets plummet after Brexit surprise
  

****
**** Successful 'Brexit' referendum vote throws UK and EU into political chaos
****


Rock of Gibraltar with Spain the background (AFP)

Few people doubt that the surprise passage of Britain's "Brexit"
referendum, directing that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland should withdraw from the European Union after being a
member since 1975, will cause a great deal of political chaos in the
next few weeks and months. Pro-Brexit politicians claim the chaos is
only temporary, and it will soon settle down, and the result will be
better for the UK.

Nigel Farage, leader of the right-wing pro-Brexit Ukip party, said
exuberantly, "Let June go down in history of our independence day!"
Others pro-Brexit politicians shouted, "We've taken our country back!"

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the wish that the
chaos will end is fantasy. The "financial crisis" of 2007-2009 set in
motion generational forces that have caused the chaos to increase
every month, every year. That's true in Europe, with the euro crisis,
the migrant crisis, and the Ukraine crisis; it's true in the Mideast,
with the Arab Awakening, the Syria war, the Yemen war, the rise of
ISIS, the collapse in Iran-Saudi Arabia relations, and the meltdowns
in Libya and Egypt; and it's true in Asia with China's belligerence in
the East and South China Sea. This is worldwide trend that's been
growing for a decade, and in this generational Crisis era, it's
literally impossible for the growth in chaos to stop.

As I've been writing for years, nationalism, racism and xenophobia
have been growing in countries around the world, as they do in every
generational Crisis era. All these factors played into the surprise
Brexit vote, in the form of anti-German, anti-French and anti-migrant
sentiment. Furious voters wanted to get revenge against the élite in
both the UK and the EU and "send a message" that they're not going to
take it anymore. There have been some reports of "buyer's remorse" --
that at least some of the pro-Brexit voters wanted to send a message,
but didn't really want to leave the EU. Nonetheless, the deed appears
to be done.

So the pro-Brexit people who expect the EU and the UK to settle down
into a non-chaotic "new normal" are making major misjudgments.
They're especially overlooking the following: Just as they were angry,
just as they were expressing their nationalism, racism, and
xenophobia, just as they wanted revenge, the people who lost are also
angry, and also will want to get revenge by expressing their
nationalism, racism, and xenophobia.

The question really is not WHETHER they're going to seek revenge. The
question is HOW they're going to seek revenge. Here are some
possibilities:

• Many in the EU are furious that the UK have dumped them. Some
  leaders say that they want the UK out of the EU as quickly as
  possible, rather than wait two years.
  
  
• In 2014, Scotland held a referendum on the question of whether
  Scotland should leave the UK and become an independent country. This
  would have dissolved the 1707 union between England and Scotland that
  came out of the War of the Spanish Succession. Scotland voted to stay
  in the UK, on Thursday they voted overwhelmingly for the UK to remain
  in the EU. Now Scotland's politicians are furious that they're being
  screwed, and they're talking about a new Scottish referendum to leave
  the UK and join the EU.
  
  
• Northern Ireland's indigenous Gaelic Irish people (usually
  Catholic, republican, nationalist) have been at war with the
  descendants of invading English and Scottish people (usually
  Protestant, loyalist, unionist) off and on since the 1400s. Britain
  has governed the Gaelics ever since the extremely bloody Nine Years
  War (1594-1603). ( "23-Jun-2011 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again"
  )
  That war may be renewed if the UK is not part of the EU. There's a
  special irony to this situation. The border between Northern Ireland
  (which is governed by the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (an
  independent country) is open because both countries are in the EU, so
  there's free travel between the two regions. If Northern Ireland is
  no longer in the EU, then there may be border closings.
  
  
• Gibraltar has governed by the UK ever since Britain won it from
  Spain in 1714, following the War of the Spanish Succession. The UK's
  vote on Thursday to leave the EU is a disaster for Gibraltar
  residents, who are almost all British, because it has reignited
  dispute over the 1714 settlement. Spain has threatened to take
  control of Gibraltar if the UK leaves the EU. At the very least,
  Spain may close the border between Gibraltar and Spain.
  
  
• There have been far-right parties in other EU countries that have
  been demanding that their countries leave the EU. These include
  France, Sweden, Italy, the Netherlands and Denmark. These demands
  will now be renewed, raising fears of "contagion" from the UK
  vote.

If you were to ask a UK or EU politician whether any of the events in
the above list are likely to happen, he would tell you, "No, no chance
whatsoever!" However, if you had asked a UK or EU politician a few
months ago (or even a few days ago) whether the UK would leave the EU,
you would have gotten a similar response.

As I like to point out, almost every day, something new happens that a
few years ago you would have to have been crazy to believe would ever
happen. Whether it's in America, Europe, Africa, the Mideast or Asia,
things that could never happen are happening.

In fact, every one of the items listed above is quite reasonable, once
you realize how angry, how nationalistic, and how xenophobic people
have become in many countries. That anger could be translated into
anything from an election referendum to a war in a matter of days.

The European Union was formed after two world wars and the Great
Depression. Institutions were put into place with the specific
purpose of preventing a new war between European nations, and
preventing the financial abuse that led to the Great Depression.
Today, with the survivors of World War II gone, anger, nationalism,
xenophobia, and stupidity are back in full force.

I can't tell you which of the above events will actually happen, but I
would be very surprised if none of them happened. At the very least,
expect more chaos, and one new crisis after another. Guardian (London) and Reuters and BBC and Vox and TRT World (Istanbul)

****
**** Global stock markets plummet after Brexit surprise
****

A global stock selloff occurred on Friday, following the Brexit vote.
The plunge began in Asia, spread across Europe, and then to North
America. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 600 points.
Britain's sterling currency fell 10% against the US dollar, to its
weakest value in 31 years. Money poured into safe havens, notably US
Treasury bonds. The demand for the bonds increased their prices,
which therefore lowered their yields (interest rates) dramatically.

The question is: What happens next? Will stock prices continue to
fall when the markets open again on Monday? Are we in a stock market
crash?


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at 24.22 on June 24, indicating a huge and growing stock market bubble (WSJ)

First off, we have to say that it's possible. As regular readers
know, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global
financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (June 24) was at an astronomically
high 24.22. This is far above the historical average of 14,
indicating that the stock market bubble is still growing, and could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

Second, let's take a look at the 1929 stock market crash. The DJIA
fell 24% on October 28-29, but then regained 18% on the next two days.
That would more accurately be called a "panic" rather than a "crash."
The actual crash continued for years, until mid-1932, when it had
fallen to 90% of its peak value on September 3, 1929.

So when we say that "it's possible," we mean that there might still be
some sort of panic next week, but a real crash would take place over a
longer period of time.

The way it works is through forced selling. What happened in 1929 is
that investors had borrowed money (on margin) to purchase stocks.
When the price of stocks bought on margin start to fall, then the
stock broker gives the investor a "margin call," which means that the
investor has to come up with more money. This usually means selling
some stock, and if a lot of investors are forced to sell, then stock
prices fall again, and there's a vicious cycle of stock prices
falling, margin calls, stock selling, stock prices falling, and so
forth. This can go on for years, and it did from 1929-1932.

To this day, nobody knows what triggered the panic of 1929, and
there's certainly no way to tell what will trigger the next panic, or
whether Brexit will do so.

What we do know is that the current stock market bubble will burst,
because every bubble in history always has, despite claims that "this
time it's different." So it's possible that Brexit will be the
trigger that causes the current global stock market and credit bubble
to burst.

What's important about the current situation is that thousands of
investors were caught completely by surprise by Brexit referendum
win. Many of them had invested heavily in sterling currency and the
stock market, expecting that the values of these investments would
increase when the Brexit referendum lost. So many investors were
forced to sell when the Brexit referendum won in order to service
debts that they'd incurred to make the investments in the first place,
just like the 1929 margin calls.

So it's possible that enough investors were caught by surprise and a
new vicious cycle will occur. It has to happen sometime, and it may
or may not be now.

However, there's one other thing we know. Central banks around the
world are well aware of this vicious cycle possibility, and reports
indicate that they're "printing money" and pouring into the markets in
order to head off exactly this kind of vicious cycle. The Bank of
England, European Central Bank and the People's Bank of China have
already said they were ready to provide liquidity if needed to ensure
global market stability. However, one sign that they're running out
of the ability to do that is the huge amount of debt based on negative
interest rates. ( "15-Jun-16 World View -- German 10 year bund yield goes negative, as deflationary spiral continues"
)

So maybe the central banks will succeed this time or maybe they won't.
We'll have to wait until next week to find out. Reuters and Washington Post and CNBC and AAP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Brexit, European Union,
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,
Nigel Farage, Ukip, Scotland, England, Gibraltar,
Ireland, Gaelic, Nine Years War, War of the Spanish Succession,
panic, crash, forced selling, price/earnings ratio,
Bank of England, European Central Bank, People's Bank of China

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 26-Jun-16 World View -- Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• In new escalation, China cuts communications hotline with Taiwan
  
• Taiwan's politicians respond to the Brexit referendum result
  
• Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote
  

****
**** In new escalation, China cuts communications hotline with Taiwan
****


Taiwan's new president Tsai Ing-wen

China is following up on last month's ominous demands that Taiwan's
new president Tsai Ing-wen must explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part
of China. The threatening demands were made just four days after Tsai
took office. ( "26-May-16 World View -- China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China"
)

On Saturday, China announced that it was cutting a communication
hotline with Taiwan that was set up last year in the waning days of
the previous Ma Ying-jeou administration.

Ma is leader of the pro-China Kuomintang (KMT) party, which supports
the "1992 Consensus" that there is "one China," leaving it ambiguous
what that means. KMT favors the "one China" principle and unification
with mainland China, and which has fully supported all of China's
claims in the South China Sea.

Ma and China's president Xi Jinping held a highly publicized
landmark meeting in Singapore on November 7 of last year. The
purpose of the meeting was for Xi to support Ma Ying-jeou's bid for
reelection in the upcoming January elections. The support
didn't help, as Ma's opponent Tsai Ing-wen won overwhelmingly,
and took office in May.

One outcome of the November 7 meeting was to set up a high-level
hotline between Taipei and Beijing to handle emergencies. The hotline
was used for the first time on December 30, when officials for both
countries exchanged New Year's greetings.

The new president, Tsai, is the leader of Taiwan's Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP), which in the past has favored Taiwan
independence from China. When the DPP was in power prior to 2008,
relations between China and Taiwan were so bad that in 2005 Beijing
passed an "anti-secession law" saying that China would take military
action against Taiwan if there were any moves or speeches in the
direction of Taiwan independence from China.

In her inauguration speech last month, Tsai said that she "respected"
the "common understanding" between Taiwan and China, but did not say
what the common understanding was. This infuriated the Chinese.
According to Beijing state media, Tsai made "a painful effort not to
answer one important question..., whether or not to acknowledge the
1992 Consensus embodying the one China principle."

So on Saturday, China shut down the hotline that had been set up for
emergencies as a result of last year's meeting between Xi and Ma.
According to a Chinese official:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Because the Taiwan side has been unable to confirm
the 1992 consensus that embodies the common political foundation
of the one-China principle, the mechanism for contact and
communication between the two sides has already been
suspended."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This infuriated Taiwanese officials who said that they will not give
in to China's "blackmail and coercion."

China's action to shut down the hotline was probably triggered
by another incident. On Friday, 25 Taiwanese in Cambodia,
accused of telecommunications fraud, were extradited to China
rather than to Taiwan. China demanded that Cambodia send them
to China, since sending them to Taiwan would acknowledge Taiwan's
existence as an independent entity.

Taiwan responded on Friday by using the hotline to protest the
extraditions to China, and accused China of "abducting" Taiwanese
citizens saying, "It is inappropriate for China to impede cooperation
to fight crime for political factors." One day later, China shut down
the hotline. Shanghaiist and AFP and China Post (Taipei - 31-Dec-2015)

****
**** Taiwan's politicians respond to the Brexit referendum result
****

The success of Britain's Brexit referendum was a shock to the Chinese
as much as anyone, but it has special significance for China. If the
UK can hold a referendum and leave the European Union, then why can't
Taiwan and Hong Kong hold their own referendums and leave China?

Wu Ping-jui, an official in the administration of the new president
Tsai Ing-wen, said that when China shut down the communications
hotline in order to force the Taiwanese to accept its version
of the "1992 Consensus," it was tantamount to
"blackmail and coercion." He said that China's actions would
simply "toughen up Taiwanese determination."

Wu then referenced the Brexit referendum. If China demands that
Taiwan accept the 1992 consensus, "do they mean for us what to choose?
This is not done in any democratic country." He cited the Brexit
referendum, in which each and every British citizen was able to show
his or her will.

An official from the opposition KMT party, which favors Taiwan
integration with China, also congratulated Britain on the Brexit
referendum. However, he said that no similar referendum could be held
in Taiwan, because referendums could only be held on matters of
crucial national interest, and because "the requirements of our
Referendum Law need not be relaxed at this time, despite attempts by
pro-independence legislators to do so." China Post (Taipei) and China Post

****
**** Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote
****


Protester in fake blood outside Westminster on Friday carries sign, 'Brexit what a bloody joke.' Other signs read, 'I am not British - I am European' (Daily Mail)

Millennials in Britain are expressing fury that their futures have
been ruined by the passage of the Brexit vote by the Boomer
generation, meaning that Britain will no longer be part of the
European Union, and the Millennials will be denied the benefits that
their parents had.

According to YouGov exit polls, Millennials voted overwhelmingly for
the "Remain" side, meaning that the UK would remain in the EU, while
Boomers voted for the "Leave" side. The breakdown by age group was:

• 18-24: 75% Remain
  
• 25-49: 56% Remain
  
• 50-64: 44% Remain
  
• 65+: 39% Remain

Yorkshire Post columnist Grant Woodward wrote:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Brexit will come to be seen as the Baby Boomers’
ultimate betrayal of younger generations and those that will
follow. A knee-jerk response to a series of red herrings, a
protest vote with the potential for long-term catastrophe that
they won’t be around to endure."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Typical tweets were as follows:

[indent]<QUOTE>"So all the old people gave us a future we didn't
want. You've all had your careers, why screw it up for us"

"I'm scared. Jokes aside I'm actually scared. Today an older
generation has voted to ruin the future for the younger
generation. I'm scared."

"I'm actually really upset how selfish the older generations have
been"

"The fact that the older generation have whole heartedly made a
decision that the youth of today DO NOT WANT seems strange, yes
I'm bitter"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Among the American politicians, Donald Trump is on the "Leave" side,
while Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are on the "Remain" side.
Daily Mail (London) and Telegraph (London)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen,
DPP, Democratic Progressive Party, Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou,
KMT, Kuomintang, 1992 Consensus, One-China Policy, Wu Ping-jui,
Brexit, European Union, Millennials, Boomers, YouGov,
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,
Grant Woodward, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Jun-16 World View -- Israel and Turkey announcing a reconciliation agreement on Monday

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Nationalistic tensions increase as UK and EU drift towards Brexit
  
• Japan's government calls emergency meeting as yen surges after Brexit
  
• Israel and Turkey announcing a reconciliation agreement on Monday
  

****
**** Nationalistic tensions increase as UK and EU drift towards Brexit
****


Nationalistic tensions grow in the UK and EU (AFP)

The successful Brexit referendum vote, calling for the United Kingdom
of Great Britain and Northern Island to leave the European Union, has
unleashed powerful nationalistic forces in both the UK and the EU, as
we've been describing for years in nations around the world in a
generational Crisis era. Furthermore, it's torn wide open new
political fault lines within both the UK and EU, making resolution of
the issues less likely and chaos more likely, and making both unions
considerably weaker.

The latest developments are as follows:

• There is massive "buyer's remorse" in the UK, with millions of
  people signing a petition for a do-over on the referendum. Everyone
  is saying that's impossible, but one wonders if there's an opening
  there.
  
  
• Jeremy Corbyn, the far left-wing leader of Britain's opposition
  Labor party, who has previously been an opponent of the European
  Union, is being widely blamed by members of his own party for his
  half-hearted opposition to the Brexit referendum. Most labor unions
  want Britain to stay in the European Union, because they like the EU's
  liberal labor laws. On Sunday, Corbyn's leadership melted down, as
  twelve members of Corbyn's "shadow cabinet" were pushed out or
  resigned, saying that they have no faith in Corbyn as a leader.
  (Since it's possible for the British government to change hands
  overnight on a failing vote of confidence, an opposition leader will
  have a "shadow cabinet" that can immediately step in and become the
  real cabinet.)
  
  
• Prime minister David Cameron, leader of the "Tory" Conservative
  Party, who had strongly campaigned against Brexit said he would step
  down:
  
  [indent]<QUOTE>PRIME MINISTER DAVID CAMERON: "The British people have
  made a very clear decision to take a different path. And as such,
  I think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this
  direction. I will do everything I can as prime minister to steady
  the ship over the coming weeks and months, but I do not think it
  would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our
  country to its next destination. This is not a decision I’ve taken
  lightly, but I do believe it’s in the national interest to have a
  period of stability and then the new leadership required. In my
  view, we should aim to have a new prime minister in place by the
  start of the Conservative Party Conference in October. And I will
  do everything I can to help. I love this country, and I feel
  honored to have served it. And I will do everything I can in
  future to help this great country succeed."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
  
  The impact of Cameron's statement is that he will step down by
  October, and leave it to his successor to invoke the EU Lisbon Treaty
  Article 50, which starts the clock on the two-year process for Britain
  to leave the EU. Like the Labor party, the Conservative party is in
  chaos.
  
  
• What was unprecedented about the referendum is that the British
  people were badly split, but not along the usual Labor-Conservative
  lines. Instead, it was split geographically (England and Wales were
  pro-Brexit, Scotland and Northern Ireland were anti-Brexit), and it
  was split by generation ( "26-Jun-16 World View -- Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote"
  )
  
  
• It's pretty clear that the pro-Brexit leaders did not expect to
  win the referendum, and have no idea how to proceed next. Pro-Brexit
  leader Boris Johnson, who was on TV constantly before the vote, and
  who is the favorite to be the next prime minister, has been almost
  completely invisible since then, except to say that there's no hurry
  in invoking Lisbon Treaty Article 50.
  
  
• This is driving EU leaders crazy, and stoking anti-British
  nationalism. Some of them are saying "Good riddance!" and want
  Britain not only to invoke article 50 right away, but actually to
  leave the EU right away. Others are urging caution, and some are
  saying that even two years are not enough to figure out the terms of
  the divorce.
  
  
• Scotland officials are negotiating independently with EU leaders
  to figure out how Scotland can stay in the EU even when the UK leaves.
  There may be a new Scottish independence referendum.

David Cameron will be traveling to Brussels on Tuesday for a
long-planned meeting of leaders of the 28 EU countries. But on
Wednesday, he will be excluded from an all-day meeting of leaders of
the other 27 EU countries, as they try to figure out what to do next.
Guardian (London) and Democracy Now (London) and Breitbart News (London)

****
**** Japan's government calls emergency meeting as yen surges after Brexit
****

The unexpected success of the Brexit referendum caught many investors
by surprise, and has shocked the markets. ( "25-Jun-16 World View -- Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets"
)

Investors quickly moved into "safe havens," including
dollar-denominated investments and, even more, into yen-denominated
investments. This created a new global demand for yen, pushing the
value of the currency higher, exacerbating Japan's deflationary
spiral.

The Bank of Japan and other government officials are holding an
emergency meeting on Monday to evaluate the situation and to decide
whether to "print money" and pour more liquidity into the banking
system in order to prevent the vicious cycle that we described two days ago.

The European Central Bank would also like "print money" by buying
bonds (quantitative easing), but according to one analyst, the ECB
will have a problem doing this. The reason is that there are $8
trillion in bonds in the market at negative yields (interest rates),
and the ECB is running out of bonds to buy. ( "15-Jun-16 World View -- German 10 year bund yield goes negative, as deflationary spiral continues"
)

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) also announced a substantial
weakening of the renminbi (yuan) currency, though they did it a
different way. The yuan currency is pegged to a fixed exchange
rate with the US dollar, and on Monday morning the PBOC
weakened the yuan currency by 0.9%, its weakest fixing level
since December 2010.

Meanwhile the favorite topic of all the tv financial talk shows has
suddenly taken a dramatic twist. For months this year, these shows
would debate for hours and hours each day whether the Fed would
increase interest rates three times or two times or one time this
year. Increasing interest rates would strengthen the US dollar,
causing more deflation. So over the weekend sentiment has changed,
and now analysts are expecting the Fed to lower interest rates, not
raise them.

During the 1930s Great Depression, there was a "race to the bottom,"
as countries kept devaluing their currencies in order to gain a
competitive advantage against other countries. Ever since the
"financial crisis" of 2007-8, it's been widely feared that it could
happen again, and the current situation is raising those concerns
again. Dow Jones and Japan Today and Business Insider (Australia)

****
**** Israel and Turkey announcing a reconciliation agreement on Monday
****

Multiple media sources are saying that Israel and Turkey are
announcing a reconciliation agreement on Monday, bringing to an end
the deterioration in relations that followed the Mavi Marmara
confrontation in 2010. (See "23-Jun-16 World View -- Turkey drops lifting of Gaza blockade demand for normalization with Israel"
)

According to press reports, the details of the agreement are as
follows:

• Turkey had previously demanded that Israel eliminate the
  blockade of Gaza. The compromise is that Turkey will be allowed to
  transfer to the Gaza Strip humanitarian aid without limitation through
  the Ashdod port, and will be allowed to build both power and a
  desalination plants, and a hospital, inside Gaza.
  
  
• Israel had previously demanded that Turkey stop hosting Hamas
  officials in Turkey. The compromise is that Turkey will not allow
  Hamas to plan or carry out attacks against Israel from its
  territory.
  
  
• Turkey had previously demanded that Israel admit responsibility
  for the deaths of the Turks in the Mavi Marmara confrontation in 2010,
  apologize, and pay compensation to the families of the victims. The
  compromise is that Israel won't admit responsibility, but will
  apologize only for "operational mistakes." Israel will pay $20
  million to a special fund set up for the families, but this money will
  not be paid until Turkey's parliament passes a law making it
  impossible for further Mavi Marmara claims to be made against Israeli
  officers or soldiers.

These have been difficult compromises for both sides.

According to a former minister to prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Israel will pay Turkey reparations for the Marmara?
I hope the reports are untrue. If they are true, this would be
national humiliation and an invitation for further flotillas and
libels by haters of Israel."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt ÇavuSoglu said the following:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Saying that Turkey has given up one of its two
remaining conditions, which is lifting the embargo and blockade on
Gaza, would mean humiliating the people’s intelligence. If Turkey
had given up these [conditions], then relations would have been
normalized by now."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The deal will be announced on Monday, and the agreement will be signed
in July, according to reports. Jerusalem Post and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Al-Jazeera (Doha)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Brexit, European Union,
Jeremy Corbyn, Labor Party, David Cameron, Tory, Conservative Party,
Lisbon Treaty Article 50, Scotland, Northern Ireland,
Boris Johnson, Bank of Japan, BOJ, yen, European Central Bank, ECB,
People's Bank of China, PBOC, yuan, renminbi,
Israel, Turkey, Mavi Marmara, Gaza, Mevlüt ÇavuSoglu

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 28-Jun-16 World View -- Hezbollah defends terrorist actions by saying it gets all its money from Iran

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Rating agencies downgrade Britain's AAA credit rating
  
• Christian community in Lebanon targeted by suicide bombers
  
• June 12 bombing of Beirut's Blom Bank blamed on Hezbollah
  
• Nasrallah responds: Hezbollah gets all its funding from Iran
  

****
**** Rating agencies downgrade Britain's AAA credit rating
****


Britain's Home Secretary Theresa May - could be Prime Minister within weeks (Getty)

The fallout from the UK's shock approval of the Brexit referendum,
mandating that the UK leave the European Union, continued on Monday
with a new stream of events.

The Russia, Standard & Poors (S&P) ratings agency cut the UK's credit
rating by two notches, from AAA to AA+ and then to AA. The S&P said
that Brexit could lead to "a deterioration of the UK's economic
performance, including its large financial services sector."

Fitch ratings agency followed suit, lowering its rating from AA+ to
AA. On Friday, Moody's ratings agency cut the UK's credit rating
outlook to negative.

The main reason that this might be significant is that it could lead
to forced selling. Many fund managers are only allowed to own AAA
debt, and the ratings downgrades may force many of these fund managers
to sell the downgraded assets. If the asset has lost value as a
result of Brexit, then these funds could lose substantial amounts of
money. This could lead to the vicious cycle that I described last week
-- where asset
values fall, leading to forced selling, causing asset values to value,
leading to more forced selling, and so forth.

On the other hand, central banks are acting quickly to "print money"
and make it available to wealthy investors and institutions so that
there will be as little forced selling as possible.

Meanwhile, Britain's government has become almost non-existent, as
both parties are in chaos. David Cameron, leader of the government
Conservative party, is to be replaced as leader early in September.
The two most likely choices are the flamboyant pro-Brexit leader Boris
Johnson, and the demure anti-Brexit Home Secretary Theresa May.
However wins the leadership election for the party will automatically
become Prime Minister until the next general election.

In other developments on Monday, there is a great deal of tension
among EU leaders as to how quickly UK leaders have to "invoke Article
50" of the Lisbon Treaty, referring to the event that will launch two
years of negotiations to work out the details for the divorce between
the UK and EU.

UK pro-Brexit leaders don't have a plan or a clue what they want to do
next, so the "plan" is to stall as long as possible, and not invoke
Article 50 until it becomes absolutely necessary. This is driving
some UK leaders crazy since they're unable to make their own plans due
to the uncertainty of what will happen to the UK, and some of them are
demanding that the UK invoke Article 50 as quickly as possible.
However, the Lisbon Treaty is clear that the EU cannot force the UK to
do so, and UK leaders are lost in the wilderness, so will stall as
long as they can, at least until a new Prime Minister is selected.

Another question plaguing EU leaders is how harsh they should be in
the negotiations. On the one hand, the UK is an important ally, and
they don't want to be seen as screwing the UK. On the other hand,
they don't want other countries to look on and say, "If it's that
easy, then we'll leave the EU too." So many EU leaders are talking
about being as harsh as possible in the negotiations, to discourage
other members from doing the same.

The EU will have a great deal of leverage because the UK will want to
continue to belong to the "EU Single Market," or the European Economic
Area (EEA). The EEA is considered to be one of Europe's greatest
post-war achievements, and its creation was led by Britain. Britain
will desperately want to continue to be part of the EEA, and this is
possible, because Norway is in the EEA, but not a member of the EU.

However, in return for that access to the single market, Norway pays a
contribution to the EU budget and has to sign up to all the rules of
the club - including its common regulations and standards. If Britain
negotiates to stay in the EEA, then EU negotiators will certainly
demand as large a contribution to the EU budget as possible.
Furthermore -- and this will be the ultimate irony -- the common
regulations and standards will be set by the hated EU regulators, but
after leaving the EU, Britain will have no say in how the regulations
are set. Guardian (London) and Independent (London) and BBC

****
**** Christian community in Lebanon targeted by suicide bombers
****

A wave of multiple suicide bombings struck the predominantly Greek
Orthodox Christian village of Al-Qaa in northern Lebanon near the
border with Syria. The first wave of four suicide bombings occurred
outside a church in the village before sunrise on Monday morning.
Then on Monday evening, as residents were preparing for funerals for
the morning's suicide bombings, three suicide bombers riding
motorcycles blew themselves up in the same village. At least five
people were killed and 15 wounded.

No one claimed credit, but it's believed that the bombings were
perpetrated by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh). The region around Al-Qaa has had numerous al-Qaeda and ISIS
attacks since the beginning of the Syrian war in 2011.

Lebanon hosts more than 1.1-million Syrian refugees, in a country with
a population of just four million. The refugees have put an enormous
strain on the economy and on the army. Al Manar (Lebanon-Hezbollah) and AFP and Business Day (Johannesburg)

****
**** June 12 bombing of Beirut's Blom Bank blamed on Hezbollah
****

A bomb has exploded in Beirut Lebanon on June 12, outside the
headquarters of the Blom Bank, the second largest financial
institution in Lebanon. The bomb destroyed the façade of the
building, but did not cause any deaths. Lebanon's police arrested two
suspects who had been pictured on surveillance video. They were part
of a group linked to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is a powerful political force in Lebanon, but it's also a
terrorist puppet funded and directed by Iran. Under Iran's direction,
Hezbollah militias have been fighting alongside the army of the regime
of president Bashar al-Assad of Syria.

In December 2015, the US Congress passed the Hezbollah International
Financing Prevention Act, which provides for sanctions against any
foreign or domestic bank that helps Hezbollah with loans, fundraising,
money laundering, or other activities.

In the weeks before the bombing, Hezbollah began a campaign of harshly
criticizing Blom bank and its governor Riad Salameh, as well as other
Lebanese banks. Hezbollah accused the banks of being too eager to
implement the US sanctions, and appeared to be inciting violence, and
did not condemn the bombing after it occurred.

Several Lebanese newspapers known to be critical of Hezbollah called
the organization "bank bombers," and said that Hezbollah intended the
bombing as a "message" to banks complying with the US sanctions.
Congress.gov and Reuters (6/12) and Memri and
Gulf News (Dubai - 6/16)

****
**** Nasrallah responds: Hezbollah gets all its funding from Iran
****

In a speech on Friday, Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gave
a speech in which he defended Hezbollah against the accusation of
being responsible for the Blom bank bombing, saying that the law
passed by Congress has no effect on Hezbollah:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Well, at the time, I said that even if the Lebanese
banks comply with this law, ... we as a party and as an
organization and jihadist movement consider the law pointless and
we will not be hurt or affected by it.

Yes, it is true that the law puts some moral pressure on us but it
will not have any financial impact on Hezbollah. I have previously
explained why but I will remind those idiots of the following. We
do not have any business projects or investments via banks.

Let me be very frank and I do not think anyone in the world would
dare to say this publicly. We are open about the fact that
Hezbollah's budget, its income, its expenses, everything it eats
and drinks, its weapons and rockets, are from the Islamic Republic
of Iran. ... Our allocated money is coming to us, not through the
banks. As long as Iran has money, we have money ... Just as we
receive the rockets that we use to threaten Israel, we are
receiving our money. No law will prevent us from receiving it.

Some people might have objections. We do not care. By the way, the
resistance [to Israel], its sons, audience, and people thank the
imam of the nation, His Eminence Imam Sayyid Ali Khamenei, may God
grant him a long life. We also thank the Islamic Republic of Iran,
its president, government, parliament, reference, religious
authorities, and people for the kind support provided to us during
the years of resistance and that continues to date."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The interesting thing about this speech is that Nasrallah does not
deny that Hezbollah was responsible for the bombing, which makes the
whole speech rather silly. It appears to be a message to the US
Congress to convince them to lift the sanctions because they don't do
any good. However, that message is not likely to be heeded. The National (UAE) and Al Manar (Lebanon-Hezbollah)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, United Kingdom, Britain, European Union,
David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Brexit,
Standard & Poors, Moody's, Fitch, forced selling,
European Single Market, European Economic Area, EEA,
Lebanon, Al-Qaa, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Blom Bank, Riad Salameh, Syria, Bashar al-Assad

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 29-Jun-16 World View -- Bombing of Turkey's airport affects a swirl of diplomatic actions

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mutual UK-EU loathing at the European Parliament in Brussels
  
• Bombing of Turkey's airport affects a swirl of diplomatic actions
  

****
**** Mutual UK-EU loathing at the European Parliament in Brussels
****


Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon in Brussels on Tuesday

While not threatening an immediate spiral into a global crisis, The
Brexit situation continues every day to cause a great deal of
geopolitical deterioration and damage of a kind that's likely to lead
to a serious crisis in time.

Britain's government melted down further on Tuesday, as far-left Labor
Party chief Jeremy Corbyn was given a big vote of no-confidence, with
172 Labor MPs voting no confidence, while only 40 supported him.
However, he was elected leader last year by a wide margin among Labor
MPs, and he says he won't step down. This leaves both British parties
without effective leadership.

The real action on Tuesday occurred at the meeting of the European
Parliament in Brussels. Nigel Farage, who is the head of Britain's
anti-immigrant anti-Europe Ukip party, is also an MEP (member of
European parliament). In Brussels on Tuesday, he stood to speak and
he used the time to gloat:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Funny, isn't it. You know, when I came here 17 years
ago, and I said that I wanted to lead a campaign to get Britain to
leave the European Union, you all laughed at me. Well I have to
say, you're not laughing now are you?"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

He also accused all the other 700 MEPs of never having done a
hard day's work in their lives, or of ever creating a job.

Parliament president Jean-Claude Jüncker accused Farage of lying
repeatedly during the Brexit campaign, and said "You were fighting for
the exit, the British people voted in favor of the exit - why are you
here?"

EU officials are described as sad and angry, and they're especially
angry at David Cameron for even allowing the referendum in the first
place. Jüncker said clearly that Brexit was "a fact," and there would
be no going back. He also ordered all the MEPs not to conduct any
negotiations with British officials, until Britain's government
invokes "Article 50," which launches the two-year negotiation process.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that there would be no "cherry
picking," meaning that Britain would not be permitted to pick and
choose which EU regulations it obeys if it wants to be part
of EU's Single Market.

The UK government is still in chaos, and still lost in the wilderness,
and has no idea what to do next. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland
are demanding that a way be found to keep them in the EU. The
Scottish MEP Alyn Smith reminded the Brussels Parliament that Scotland
voted overwhelmingly against Brexit: "We will need cool heads and warm
hearts but please remember this - Scotland did not let you down. I beg
you: do not let Scotland down now."

Jüncker and other EU officials seem resigned that Britain will not
invoke Article 50 at least until September 9, when David Cameron will
be replaced by a new Prime Minister. Jüncker's nightmare scenario is
that the UK will keep stalling indefinitely, without invoking Article
50, leaving the EU in unending limbo. On Wednesday, there will be a
meeting of the leaders of 27 EU members and, for the first time in 40
years, the UK will be excluded.

There is a real feeling of mutual disgust and loathing between EU and
UK officials now, and that the negotiations will be harsh and bitter.

On the other hand, in view of the chaos and bitterness, fears of other
EU countries trying to conduct their own exit referendums seem
diminished now. Nobody else wants to go through the same thing.
BBC and Guardian (London) and BBC

****
**** Bombing of Turkey's airport affects a swirl of diplomatic actions
****

At least 36 people were killed on Monday by three coordinated suicide
bombings in Ataturk National Airport on the European side of Istanbul,
Turkey. No one has claimed responsibility, but Turkish officials say
that the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) was
responsible.

The Ataturk airport is a major international airport. Not only is it
the biggest commercial hub in Turkey, it's one of the largest airports
in the world, and a major international traffic hub.

The bombing comes just one day after Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan completed two diplomatic initiatives. First, the reconciliation with Israel
was
announced after Erdogan softened his demand that Israel end its
blockade of Gaza, and agreed to a compromise, as we described on
Sunday.

Second, it was revealed that Erdogan finally apologized to Russia for
shooting down the Russian warplane last year. Russia's president
Vladimir Putin has demanded that Erdogan apologize and provide
compensation to the families of the victims. Whether it was an
accident or on purpose that both diplomatic announcements occurred on
the same day, it certainly appears that Erdogan is changing some of
his hardline attitudes.

There's a third major diplomatic issue reaching a potential crisis
this week. June 30 is the deadline set by Turkey for the European
Union to lift visa restrictions on Turkey, so that any of Turkey's 72
million citizens can travel freely around Europe's Schengen zone.
This is Turkey's requirement in exchange for the EU-Turkey migrant
deal. This deal has been extremely successful, in that it's reduced
the flow of migrants entering Greece from Turkey to dozens per day,
down from hundreds or thousands per day.

EU officials have said they won't lift the visa restrictions unless
Turkey improves its human rights record, particularly by not using
anti-terrorism laws to jail journalists. Turkish officials have said
repeatedly that if the visa restrictions aren't lifted, then Turkey
will renege on the migrant deal, and allow an unrestricted flow of
migrants to cross the Aegean Sea again to Greece.

Turkey has refused in the past to weaken the anti-terrorism laws, and
Tuesday's airport attack can only redouble that resolve.

There have been no recent statements from Turkey about reneging on the
migrant deal, so right now it looks like Thursday is going to come and
go with no change in the status quo. If so, it will be the
third time this week that Erdogan will have backed down
diplomatically. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Observer


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, European Union, Jeremy Corbyn,
Nicola Sturgeon, Nigel Farage, Ukip, David Cameron,
Jean-Claude Jüncker, Angela Merkel, Alyn Smith,
Turkey, Istanbul, Ataturk National Airport, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Gaza, Russia, Vladimir Putin

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(06-28-2016, 11:40 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > If the SCO don't see their guy Trump winning the US Presidency, it
> will throw a wrench into the works. If Trump were to win, I'd
> expect to incur a direct surprise attack on CONUS during the lame
> duck period between November and late Jan 2017. However, if
> Clinton wins, it is unlikely that would occur. However, on the
> Eurasian landmass, with the growing geopolitical chaos, all bets
> are off. While the SCO may delay a direct attack on CONUS, the
> same cannot be said for nearer domains. Nearly all of the Eurasian
> landmass is in grave danger. Great War has not been so close for
> at least 70 years.

I almost wrote a story yesterday on the SCO. I don't know if you're
aware of it, but as of last week India and Pakistan are joining the
SCO as members. The SCO has never been much more than a talking club,
but now that will be even more the case, except that in addition to
talking there'll be a lot more shouting.

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/79411

As for Trump being the SCO's "guy", you must be talking about a
different SCO.

[Ragnarök_62]

John X Wrote:****
**** Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote
****


Protester in fake blood outside Westminster on Friday carries sign, 'Brexit what a bloody joke.'  Other signs read, 'I am not British - I am European' (Daily Mail)

Millennials in Britain are expressing fury that their futures have
been ruined by the passage of the Brexit vote by the Boomer
generation, meaning that Britain will no longer be part of the
European Union, and the Millennials will be denied the benefits that
their parents had.

According to YouGov exit polls, Millennials voted overwhelmingly for
the "Remain" side, meaning that the UK would remain in the EU, while
Boomers voted for the "Leave" side.  The breakdown by age group was:

• 18-24: 75% Remain
  
• 25-49: 56% Remain
  
• 50-64: 44% Remain
  
• 65+: 39% Remain
  

Yorkshire Post columnist Grant Woodward wrote:

   [indent]<QUOTE>"Brexit will come to be seen as the Baby Boomers’
   ultimate betrayal of younger generations and those that will
   follow. A knee-jerk response to a series of red herrings, a
   protest vote with the potential for long-term catastrophe that
   they won’t be around to endure."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Typical tweets were as follows:

   [indent]<QUOTE>"So all the old people gave us a future we didn't
   want. You've all had your careers, why screw it up for us"

It looks like GenX split down the middle.

whiner Wrote:   "I'm scared. Jokes aside I'm actually scared. Today an older
   generation has voted to ruin the future for the younger
   generation. I'm scared."

   "I'm actually really upset how selfish the older generations have
   been"

   "The fact that the older generation have whole heartedly made a
   decision that the youth of today DO NOT WANT seems strange, yes
   I'm bitter"<END QUOTE>

Why did y'all stay home to play video games instead of vote then?

John X Wrote:Among the American politicians, Donald Trump is on the "Leave" side,
while Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are on the "Remain" side.
Daily Mail (London) and Telegraph (London)

It appears the UK got out before the trap door shut.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...omies.html

As for anything to do with Ukraine, that's another CIA covert op that led to blowback.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/07/30/t...n-ukraine/

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Jun-16 World View -- Egypt calls Qatar an 'enemy state'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cash stored in vaults as negative interest rates spread
  
• UK was locked out of EU summit for first time in 40 years
  
• Egypt calls Qatar an 'enemy state'
  

****
**** Cash stored in vaults as negative interest rates spread
****


Man shops for vault in which to store cash

As I wrote last week, central banks around the world are committed to
"printing money" and making it available to wealthy investors and
institutions in order to forestall forced selling following global
financial shocks following Brexit. A major tool for doing this is
quantitative easing -- purchasing corporate or sovereign bonds. But
central banks are being limited by the huge amount of debt based on
negative interest rates (yields). ( "25-Jun-16 World View -- Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets"
)

A new report by Finch Ratings indicates that negative interest rates
are spreading rapidly. As of June 27, $11.7 trillion of sovereign
debt globally was based on the purchase of bonds and other assets with
negative yields. This is up by $1.3 trillion from the end of May.

The way that this works in "normal" times is that an investor pays $95
for a bond that will pay $100 when it expires. But in today's "new
normal," the demand for bonds is surging, and by the law of supply and
demand, the prices of these bonds are also surging. So the investor
is forced to pay $105 for the same bond that will pay only $100.
That's a negative yield.

The demand for bonds has been surging from two sources. As volatility
and uncertainty increases, investors are seeking safe havens in which
to park their money. And central banks are purchasing bonds as part
of a quantitative easing program. Japan, Germany and France
were the leaders in June of increases in sovereign debt with
negative yields.

In "normal" times, banks make money by borrowing money at low interest
rates and lending it out at high interest rates. But in today's
low and negative interest rate environment, it's impossible to
lend it out at high interest rates, except to the riskiest
borrowers, the subprime borrowers most likely to default.

For financial institutions looking for a place to park their money,
some of them are returning to the old days when banks stored
their money in vaults. Money in a vault earns no interest, but
it also doesn't lose value.

When American outlaw "Willie" Sutton was once asked why he robbed
banks, he replied, "I rob banks because that's where the money is."
Somewhere there may be a modern day Willie Sutton who's thinking the
same thing. Fitch Ratings and Bloomberg and Seeking Alpha and Bloomberg and FT Adviser
and Telegraph (London)

****
**** UK was locked out of EU summit for first time in 40 years
****

Today's meeting was "about us," according to one EU official, not
about the UK. So 27 European Union members met for an EU summit, the
first one in 40 years from which Britain was excluded.

The key phrase was "there will be no single market à la carte."
The meaning of this phrase was stated repeatedly by different EU
officials. If the UK wants access to the EU Single Market, then they
must also be willing to guarantee the EU's four freedoms: freedom of
movement for people, goods, capital and services.

In particular, this will mean that the UK would have to permit the
free movement of people, which was the major motivation for the
successful Brexit vote in the first place. That would be ironic. And
it's worth mentioning again that the opposition to free movement of
people are just as opposed to free movement of Catholic Poles and
Hungarians as they are opposed to free movement of Syrian Muslims.
Guardian (London)

****
**** Egypt calls Qatar an 'enemy state'
****

The Muslim Brotherhood (MB), and the country's that sponsor MB --
Qatar and Turkey -- have reacted furiously to the actions on June 18
by an Egyptian court to sentence former president Mohamed Morsi to 40
years in prison for conspiring to harm Egypt's national interests in
what has been called the "spying for Qatar" affair. Morsi's
co-defendants included a reporter from Qatar-based al-Jazeera.

The judge reading out the verdict said that Morsi and his
co-defendants endangered national security, which is "worse than
killing a person or opposing God’s laws." He added:

[indent]<QUOTE>"They are more dangerous than spies. Spies are usually
foreigners, but unfortunately the defendants are
Egyptian."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Qatar denounced the verdicts, saying they set a dangerous precedent in
relations between Arab nations:

[indent]<QUOTE>"The verdict issued by the Cairo Criminal Court is
baseless and goes against justice and the realities on the ground,
because it includes a litany of misleading claims that contradicts
the policy of the State of Qatar towards all its sisterly
nations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Egyptian media responded harshly. According to Muhammad Amin, editor
of the Egyptian daily Al-Masri Al-Yawm:

[indent]<QUOTE>"The sentence in the case of the spying [for Qatar]
sends a message no only to the MB but also a special message
[meant] to reach the Qatari Emir. The message to the MB is that
the [Egyptian] state will not stop pursuing the movement and is
not interested in holding talks [with it] or reassessing its
attitude towards 'the state of the [MB] General Guide.' ...

I believe this affair means Qatar has become an 'enemy state' and
can no longer be a sister country, [since] siblings do not spy on
each other. I am speaking of the rash [Qatari] leadership. This
leadership managed to deceive a foolish president [Morsi] in order
to receive [from him] documents [pertaining to] national
security. He who sells out his homeland sells out his good name
and his honor."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

As long-time readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that, in the
approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, Iran, India and Russia
will be allied with the West against China, Pakistan, and the Sunni
Arab nations. ( "15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal"
)

However, that's very broad prediction. It's clear that the Sunni Arab
nations are not monolithic, and historically they've fought against
each other, as well as against Shia Iran. The 2014 Gaza war revealed
sharp fault lines among the Sunni Arabs, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and
the West Bank Palestinians on one side, and Hamas, Qatar and
(non-Arab) Turkey on the other side. ( "3-Sep-14 World View -- Mideast realignment continues following the Gaza war"
) It would be possible through analysis and
interviews to produce a much more detailed and accurate prediction of
the expected activities of the different ethnic groups, but this would
require more resources than are available to me. However, this could
be a good project for a college student thesis. Daily News Egypt (18-Jun) and Al-Jazeera (Qatar - 18-Jun) and Memri


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Brexit, negative yields, Finch Ratings,
Germany, France, Japan, Willie Sutton, Britain,
Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, MB,
al-Jazeera, Muhammad Amin

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-Jul-16 World View -- Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Puerto Rico - three amigos in Marxist economic destruction

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• British government shocked as Boris Johnson stands down
  
• After decades of destroying the economy, Zimbabwe wants investors
  
• Venezuela and Puerto Rico join Zimbabwe in economic destruction
  
• After Trump's exit, Miss Teen USA dumps its swimsuit competition
  

****
**** British government shocked as Boris Johnson stands down
****


Boris Johnson, next to his wife Marina, waves goodbye on Thursday after standing down (Daily Mail)

It's being described as a complete shock, totally unexpected -- that
Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London and the leader of the
successful campaign to win the Brexit referendum, which mandates that
the UK leave the European Union, announced that he would not run to
replace David Cameron as leader of the Conservative Party and become
Prime Minister on September 9.

Reports indicate that Boris Johnson was stabbed in the back by a close
former ally, Michael Gove. Gove had said repeatedly when asked that
he (Gove) was not qualified to be PM, but that he was going to support
Johnson and even be his campaign manager. But early on Thursday, Gove
flip-flopped and announced that he would run. He announced, "I have
come reluctantly to the conclusions Boris cannot provide the
leadership or build the team for the task ahead." He added that he's
decided that he can.

Although Johnson's announcement was a shock, it cannot have been
totally unexpected, since Johnson is completely unqualified. His
pro-Brexit campaign emotionally targeted anti-EU nationalism and
anti-immigrant anxieties about both east European Catholics and Syrian
Muslims. Once his side won the referendum vote, he almost completely
vanished from view, and it was clear that he didn't have the vaguest
clue what he'd been talking about during the campaign, or what to
do after winning.

The Brexit outcome has done a great deal of damage to the UK and the
EU, and is continuing to do more damage, as we've been reporting the
last few days. Perhaps Boris Johnson should be thanked for standing
down before he did any more damage. After all, sometimes it seems
that the most successful politicians are also the most destructive
politicians. Daily Mail (London)

****
**** After decades of destroying the economy, Zimbabwe wants investors
****

In a move of total desperation, Zimbabwe on Thursday announced that
foreigners who invested their money in Zimbabwe will be permitted to
repatriate their profits and dividends back to their home countries.
Previously, investors were required to leave all money in Zimbabwe.

As in Venezuela and Puerto Rico, the economy of Zimbabwe is crashing.
There are shortages of fuel, sugar and cooking oil. Cash withdrawals
from banks are strictly limited. ATM queues typically contain dozens
of people, and frequently the cash machines run out of money. School
teachers have been told that they will not be paid, and many don't
even have money to buy food.

The change in policy is driven by total desperation. In order to keep
the economy from crashing completely, Zimbabwe's Finance Minister
Patrick Chinamas is visiting business leaders in Paris to beg for
further investments. Currently Zimbabwe owes 10 billion US dollars to
the IMF, World Bank and the African Development Bank, with $1.86
billion in debt repayments in arrears. Chinamas is promising that the
arrears will be repaid, but Zimbabwe has no money with which to pay
the arrears.

If the most successful politicians are the most destructive, then one
of the most successful politicians of all time is 92 year old
president Robert Mubage, who has been in power for almost 30 years,
and has been responsible for an almost unbelievable amount of
destruction, in one incredible Marxist policy after another.

Mugabe is from the Shona tribe. Shortly after taking power in 1980,
he consolidated power by launching "Operation Gukurahundi" (The rain
that washes away the chaff before the spring rain). During that
campaign, accomplished with the help of Mugabe's 5th Brigade, trained
by North Korea, tens of thousands of people, mostly from the Ndebele
tribe, were raped, tortured and slaughtered.

As recently as the 1999, Zimbabwe was still the breadbasket of Africa,
exporting up to 500,000 metric tons of surplus food. By 2003,
Zimbabwe was starving. What happened during those three years was a
Marxist socialist "land reform" program by Robert Mugabe that
confiscated 4,500 white-owned commercial farms and redistributed the
property to his own Shona ethnic group. After 2003, more and more
Zimbabweans were dying of starvation, because Mugabe has destroyed the
farm infrastructure. By 2008, the official rate of inflation was 231
million percent. ( "24-Feb-2014 World View -- Mass murderer Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe has 90th birthday"
)

In 2009, Mugabe abolished the Zimbabwe dollar, which wasn't worth the
paper it was written on anyway. The US dollar and the South African
rand became the official currencies. But instead of ending the
destructive land reform policies, Mugabe added on a new one:
Indigenization.

Indigenization required all Zimbabwe businesses to be majority owned
by Zimbabweans, again mostly from Mugabe's Shona tribe. Zimbabwe
continues to shut down businesses, including foreign banks, that do
not comply with the indigenization requirements. Just as Mugabe's
"land reforms" destroyed the farm infrastructure, Mugabe's
indigenization law is destroying the entire business infrastructure.

So now, with Zimbabwe's Marxist economy close to total collapse,
Mugabe's finance minister is in Paris to convince the capitalist
investors to pour more money into Zimbabwe. It's laughable except for
the fact that so many people are suffering because of Mugabe's
destructive Marxist policies. RFI and Financial Times (27-Jun) and Independent (Zimbabwe) and Zimbabwe Government and The Zimbabwean

****
**** Venezuela and Puerto Rico join Zimbabwe in economic destruction
****

Venezuela's Socialist president Nicolás Maduro and his predecessor
Hugo Chávez are also among the world's most successful politicians, as
measured by the amount of destruction they've brought about in their
own country. Like Mugabe, they've destroyed Venezuela's economy with
Marxist policies, even though its oil reserves should make it one of
the wealthiest economies in the world. ( "15-May-16 World View -- Venezuela economy close to collapse as Maduro orders jailing of factory owners"
)

Puerto Rico faces $70 billion in total debt, a 45 percent poverty rate
and a shrinking population, as a result of years of massive spending
on social programs. ( "27-Apr-16 World View -- Puerto Rico headed for new financial default on May 1"
) Puerto Rico was saved from default on Friday, July 1, as
President Obama signed a Puerto Rico rescue bill into law on Thursday.

Let's not forget Cuba and North Korea, two more potentially wealthy
countries that have been destroyed by their successful politicians.
Washington Post

****
**** After Trump's exit, Miss Teen USA dumps its swimsuit competition
****


The sexist, outdated swimsuit competition will be eliminated by a thoroughly modern, feminist update

Now that Donald Trump has severed his relationship with the Miss
Universe Organization, it has announced that it's dropping the
swimsuit competition from Miss Teen USA.

According to a Miss Universe statement: "In a society that
increasingly prioritizes feminism and equality, watching women parade
across a stage in bikinis can feel outdated."

However, some critics complained that the contest was becoming "Sharia
compliant." The Daily Good (Iceland) and Irish Times

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Brexit, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove,
Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, Shona, Ndebele,
Operation Gukurahundi, Patrick Chinamas,
Land reforms, Indigenization, Puerto Rico, North Korea, Cuba,
Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros, Hugo Chávez,
Donald Trump, Miss Universe, Miss Teen USA

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

Oil revenue is the resource most likely to be wasted.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Jul-16 World View -- Bangladesh again shocked by major ongoing terrorist attack

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Politicians commemorate the botched World War I Battle of the Somme
  
• The Battle of the Somme and infant mortality
  
• Bangladesh again shocked by major ongoing terrorist attack
  

****
**** Politicians commemorate the botched World War I Battle of the Somme
****


Tyne Cot War Cemetery, with graves of 11,954 soldiers in the British army (greatwar.co.uk)

The Battle of the Somme, possibly the worst botched battle in the
British army's history, began on July 1, 1916. The British wanted to
deliver a knockout blow to the German army. For over a week, the
British had fired some 1,738,000 artillery shells at the German line
in order to prepare for the British infantry advance. However, the
Germans were prepared for this. The German soldiers moved into deep
dugouts that had been prepared. When the bombardment stopped, the
Germans knew that was a signal that the infantry attack was about to
begin, so they left the dugout and moved to their machine guns. Some
100,000 British and French army soldiers went "over the top" to
confront the Germans and the machine guns along a 25-mile front. By
the end of the first day, the British army had lost 60,000 men.

By the end of 141 days of battle, in November 1916, the British had
lost 420,000, the French lost 200,000 men and the Germans 500,000, for
a total of almost 1.2 million casualties in this one battle. The
British army had not only not delivered a knockout blow, they had
moved their front line only seven miles.

The British Generals had botched the situation so badly that by the
1920s, many veterans were describing the entire war as "Lions led by
Donkeys."

On Friday, France's president François Hollande and Britain's prime
minister David Cameron met at the site of the battle to commemorate
the deaths, to give the usual speeches saying "Never again." This
commemoration comes just weeks after the commemoration of the Battle of Verdun.

The commemoration comes one week after the Brexit vote, mandating that
Britain should leave the European Union. The biggest motivation for
the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957 and for the European Union, was
that the survivors of World War I and II wanted to guarantee that
Europe would never fight wars like the two world wars ever again. The
Brexit vote means that this guarantee will not be met.

Today, the survivors of the two world wars are gone, and so it's
particularly ironic that the commemoration comes at a time when the
European Union is falling apart, and the same nationalistic and
xenophobic forces that brought about the Battle of the Somme and other
battles are rising again. History Learning and Telegraph (London) and Deutsche Welle

****
**** The Battle of the Somme and infant mortality
****


Estimated infant mortality rates - 1870-1999 - in Chicago

There were 38 million military and civilian casualties in World War I,
including 11 million military personnel. The number of deaths was
astonishing, mainly because there had never been so many deaths in
previous wars.

Politicians discussing the Battle of the Somme this week blamed the
large number of deaths as "a failure of political leadership," and
pontificated that if the political leadership had been better, then
World War I would have had fewer deaths.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's very likely that
38 million people had to die, no matter how well the politicians ran
the war. In fact, asking why 38 million people died in World War I is
the wrong question. The right question is: Where did all those people
come from?

Prior to 1870, some 30% of all infants died before their first
birthday. (By age 5, the figure was about 50%.)

But infant and child mortality fell dramatically in the 1890s, and
again in the 1920s, as you can see from the graph. This fall in
infant mortality meant that a lot more infants lived long enough to
become soldiers. That's why there were so many more soldiers in WW I,
and then again in WW II. And that's why there were so many more
soldiers to be killed.

In other words, curing infant mortality is a wonderful thing for the
individual parents, but it has the unintended consequence of creating
large population of young boys ready to be sent into war as cannon
fodder.

When there are too many people, nature provides several ways to kill
them off -- war, disease, and famine. If those 38 million people
hadn't been killed by World War I, then they would have had to be
killed some other way. That's the way the world works.

Actually, that wasn't the end of it. The global Spanish Flu pandemic
of 1918 killed up to 50 million more people. Then 60 million more
people were killed in World War II. Hundreds of millions more were
killed by Josef Stalin and Mao Zedong in various Communist purges.

Today it's much worse. There are 200,000 people added to the global
population every day. At the same time, growing populations are
displacing more and more farmland. There is no way that this
situation is sustainable, or will end well, and Brexit is just one
thing that's leading the way. The Battle of the Somme was just a
minor blip compared to what's coming. Oil Price

****
**** Bangladesh again shocked by major ongoing terrorist attack
****

As I'm writing this on Friday evening ET, the hostage crisis in Dhaka,
the capital city of Bangladesh, is still in progress. There are at
least two dead and 20 hostages taken so far.

A public relations media source associated with the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is claiming credit for ISIS.
However, other analysts attribute the action to al-Qaeda in the Indian
Subcontinent (AQIS). ISIS and al-Qaeda are in a growing competition
to take credit for as many terrorist acts as they can.

The attack took place in an upmarket area popular with wealthy
Bangladeshis and foreign tourists. As I've written several times in
the past, this is a signal that the act is being perpetrated by a
terror group associated with activist Biharis, the ethnic group that
lost to the ethnic Bengalis in the 1971 generational crisis war that
created the state of Bangladesh from the former East Pakistan. ( "12-Jun-16 World View -- Bangladesh government arrests 3,192 people to stop terrorist killings"
)

Today, there are hundreds of thousands of Biharis living in refugee
camps in filthy conditions, with the largest camp just north of Dhaka,
Bangladesh's capital city. These are certainly a large part of the
motivation for Bihari jihadist groups to continue terrorist attacks.

So, if either al-Qaeda or ISIS plays any role at all, it would be
purely for publicity purposes. It's not surprising that both of these
jihadist groups should claim credit, but this is a bloody conflict
between two ethnic groups, and it's only going to get worse. Dhaka Tribune


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, World War I, Battle of the Somme,
France, François Hollande, Britain, David Cameron,
infant mortality, Spanish Flu, Josef Stalin, Mao Zedong,
Dhaka, Bangladesh, Bengalis, Biharis, East Pakistan

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Jul-16 World View -- Bangladesh tries to recover from Dhaka terror attack, the worst in 40 years

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bangladesh tries to recover from Dhaka terror attack, the worst in 40 years
  
• Suspicions that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency supported the Dhaka attack
  

****
**** Bangladesh tries to recover from Dhaka terror attack, the worst in 40 years
****


Photos of five of the attackers, appearing on an ISIS-linked web site

"Blood, shock and horror" are the words being used by Bangladeshis to
describe the grim news from the Friday overnight terror attack that we reported yesterday
at the bakery
in the in the highly secure Gulshan diplomatic enclave of Dhaka, the
capital city of Bangladesh.

We've previously reported on several of the 18 jihadist attacks in
Bangladesh in the last year, as in "24-Apr-2016 World View -- Bangladesh in shock after university professor hacked to death"
. These attacks targeted upper
class secular bloggers and liberals. The attacks typically took place
in full public view, as gang arrives on motorcycles to attack
individuals, butcher them with machetes in the middle of crowded
streets and then take off.

However, for the first time, the attack targeted foreigners and was a
lengthy siege lasting over twelve hours. Nine of the victims were
Italian, seven were Japanese, one was from India, two were Bangladeshi
and one was a U.S. citizen of Bangladeshi origin. The victims were
among roughly three dozen people taken hostage. It's the first time
that hostages have been taken in 40 years, and it's being called
"Bangladesh's 26/11," in comparison to the three-day '26/11' terror attack in Mumbai India
of
November 2008.

The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed
credit through its Amaq News Agency, and backed up the claim by
posting photos of the carnage in the cafe hours before the police
entered the cafe.

I am among those analysts who do not believe that this was an ISIS
operation. I do not believe that Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, from his ISIS
headquarters in Syria, sent out a team of jihadists to a cafe in Dhaka
Bangladesh to carry out this attack. Indeed, the Bangladesh police
say that all of the perpetrators were Bangladeshi locals, not foreign
fighters. It's possible that ISIS supported the operation and even
provided some money, but at most it was a local home-grown operation
piggybacking on ISIS's public relations facilities for their mutual
benefit.

Indeed, as I've written repeatedly, these terror attacks almost
certainly were conducted by ethnic Bihari activists targeting ethnic
Bengalis. The difference this time was that they copied ISIS's
tactics, and used ISIS for support.

In fact, Bangladesh suffered an even larger terrorist attack in
February 2009, before ISIS even existed, that was even more horrific,
except that it didn't target foreigners. 76 Bangladesh army border
guard officers were mutilated and killed in a 33-hour massacre that
shocked the country for its brutality. The perpetrators were the
troops reporting to them. Bodies of officers and their wives were
mutilated and piled into mass graves. ( "(4-March-2009) FBI will aid Bangladesh investigation of border guard officer massacre"
) In the end, a total of 847
defendants were tried, en masse, and 152 sentenced to hang, with
hundreds more facing long jail terms. ISIS didn't exist in 2009, but
if it had, they might have claimed credit for the border guard officer
massacre.

On Saturday, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina wondered how the terrorists
could do this to their own country. She said the usual things about
these attacks being "intolerable" and that she was determined to
"eradicate" the terrorists:

[indent]<QUOTE>"There is no place for terrorists or terrorism on
Bangladesh's soil. People must resist these terrorists. My
government is determined to root out terrorism and militancy from
Bangladesh.

It was an extremely heinous act. What kind of Muslims are these
who kill other people during Ramadan?"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

One thing that Hasina always did in the past but didn't do this time
was to specifically blame the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and
its ally Jamaat-e-Islam for perpetrating the violence. The BNP is a
Bihari political party, so she was using BNP as a code word for
Bihari. However, BNP leaders insisted that their political party does
not support Bihari violence, and so this time, because of the severity
of the attack, Hasina was trying not to be divisive. Daily Star (Dhaka) and Dhaka Tribune and CNN

****
**** Suspicions that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency supported the Dhaka attack
****

Some analysts, especially in India, believe that the Dhaka attack was
perpetrated by a Taliban-linked group in Pakistan, supported by
Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency.

Besides mere suspicions, there are two major reasons that give
plausibility to these accusations.

First, the Dhaka attacks were similar in nature to the November 2008
three-day '26/11' terror attack in Mumbai.
That attack was perpetrated by Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), a
Pakistani terrorist group with known connections to ISI, though ISI
claims that the connections were severed long ago. The Mumbai attack
almost resulted in war, as India threatened to invade Pakistani soil
to go after Lashkar-e-Toiba. War was only avoided by hard
intervention from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Second, Bangladesh was originally part of Pakistan, and was known as
East Pakistan. One of the worst wars of the 20th century was the
bloody genocidal war between Hindus and Muslims that followed
Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India
and Pakistan, with the latter split into West and East Pakistan. The
scale of civilian displacement from their homes was so massive that it
was called by some an "exodus of biblical proportions," since it
forced millions of Hindus in Pakistan to flee to India, and millions
of Muslims in India to flee to Pakistan.

However, that was a generational crisis war only for West Pakistan and
western India. Eastern India and East Pakistan are on a different
generational timeline, and their crisis war was the bloody civil war
of 1971, mainly between the Biharis and the Bengalis of East Pakistan.
The outcome of that war was that East Pakistan became an independent
country, Bangladesh.

In the Bangladesh of today, the Bengali-speaking Bengalis are the
dominant ethnic group, and the Urdu-speaking Biharis, who originally
were from India, are the subservient ethnic group.

But that's a flip-flop from how things were in 1949, after the
Partition war. At that time, Pakistan declared that Urdu was the
official language of both West and East Pakistan, and that the Bengali
language was to be marginalized. The Urdu-speaking Biharis became the
dominant group, and the Bengali-speaking Bengalis were subservient.

In the 1971 war, the Pakistan army was on the side of the Biharis,
fighting against the Bengalis, who were supported by India. The war
was incredibly brutal, especially the behavior of the Pakistan army
toward the Bengalis. Stories of rape, beheadings and mutilation of
Bengali civilians were common. The Bengalis won, making Bangladesh an
independent nation, and after that the Bengalis were the dominant
ethnic group.

Pakistan today still favors the subservient Biharis over the dominant
Bengalis, and so it's quite plausible, though unproven, that the
Bihari terrorists received support for Friday's attack from Pakistan's
ISI.

(In researching this article, I noticed something strange. The Taliban Easter attack on Lahore in Pakistan
on March 29 took place in Lahore's Gulshan Iqbal Park.
Saturday's terrorist attack took place in the Gulshan diplomatic
enclave of Dhaka. None of the news reports notes this connection, so
perhaps it's just a coincidence, but I thought it to be worth
mentioning.) Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (PDF-2001) and My Golden Bengal (21-July-2013) and Swarajya (India)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Gulshan diplomatic enclave,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Amaq News Agency, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi,
Hindus, Muslims, Bihari, Urdu, Bengali, Sheikh Hasina, Ramadan,
Bangladesh Nationalist Party, BNP, Jamaat-e-Islam,
Pakistan, Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI, Mumbai, India,
Lashkar-e-Toiba, LeT, Condoleezza Rice, East Pakistan,
Taliban, Lahore, Gulshan Iqbal Park

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 4-Jul-16 World View -- Massive bombing attack Baghdad Iraq blamed on bogus bomb detectors

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iraq declares 3 days of national mourning after massive Baghdad bombing
  
• Iraq orders police to stop using bogus 'bomb detectors'
  
• Former ambassador Jim Moriarty describes the dancing people of Bangladesh
  

****
**** Iraq declares 3 days of national mourning after massive Baghdad bombing
****


Aftermath of Sunday's bombing in Baghdad's Karrada district (EPA)

At least 125 people were killed and 200 wounded in two bombing attacks
on Baghdad on Sunday. The first attack occurred when a large
refrigerator truck packed with explosives blew up in a busy
marketplace in the mostly Shia Karrada district of Baghdad, killing
120 people, and partially collapsing four buildings. The second
attack occurred when a roadside bomb blew up hours later in a market
in al-Shaab, another Shia district, killing at least two people. The
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed credit
for the attacks.

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi visited Karrada to view the damage, and
was greeted by angry rock-throwing crowds who blamed government
corruptions and incompetence for the fact that it seems helplessly
unable to prevent ISIS from striking anywhere, anytime, as desired.
Later, al-Abadi announced three days of national mourning.

The bombings came about a week after Iraqi government forces
recaptured the city of Fallujah, an ISIS stronghold near Baghdad. The
Iraqi government had hoped that liberating Fallujah would increase
security in the capital as authorities believed Fallujah was a launch
pad for such attacks. In fact, ISIS has lost about half the territory
it controlled as of about a year ago, but still can use suicide
bombers to strike Baghdad at will. NRT (Iraq) and
BBC
and Rudaw (Iraq-Kurds)

****
**** Iraq orders police to stop using bogus 'bomb detectors'
****

Six years ago, the Iraqi government learned that a manufacturer had
been supplying the country with bogus "bomb detectors." They came to
be used and trusted by soldiers, police, border guards, and hotel
security staff, and were (and are) used at security checkpoints, where
they're supposed to protect the public from suicide bombers by
detecting bombs before they can be exploded.

Some reports indicate that Sunday's bombing at Karrada was made
possible because the bomber wasn't stopped at a security checkpoint
because the bogus detectors didn't set off an alarm.

So Sunday's truck bombing can be blamed on the bomb detectors that
have been known for years to be phony. So it was not until now,
Sunday, that prime minister al-Abadi finally ordered police to stop
using the so-called bomb detectors, which are little more than empty
boxes containing electronics that do nothing.

The bomb detectors were a scam. A British businessman named
James McCormick would buy novelty "golf ball detectors" for $20
each, changed the label, and sold them to the Iraq government
as bomb detectors for $5,000 each. McCormick is thought to have
made $75 million from the scam. He is currently serving
a ten-year sentence in jail, after being convicted in 2013.

So why the hell are the Iraqi police still using them years after they
were known to be pieces of junk? This is one of these stories that
drive me completely crazy, but are so typical of what goes on today
Why did it take a massive truck bombing for al-Abadi to order the
change?

I've seen this kind of credulity and duplicity repeatedly in the
computer industry in the last 25 years. It's perfectly obvious that a
software development project is going to fail, and I say so to my
manager and I get fired. You can say that I must have some obsessive
compulsion to keep doing this, and maybe I do, but I'm always right,
and every one of these projects crashed after I left. I wrote about
some of this in my article "Healthcare.gov -- The greatest software development disaster in history".

What's happening is that a software development manager with a project
that's going to crash doesn't care that it's going to crash. He just
wants to keep the project going, get as much money for himself as
possible, and then simply move on to the next project, after
describing his experience on the project in glowing terms on his
resume.

I also see the same kind of thing in financial media, including CNBC
and Bloomberg. Ten years ago, during the housing bubble, I was
telling people not to buy real estate, and all I got was grief. One
friend who bought a house anyway actually blamed me when she lost
everything, as if I'd caused the bubble to crash. The "experts"
didn't even admit that there had been a housing bubble until after it
started crashing.

I've written repeatedly that the stock valuations are astronomically
high, most recently last week ( "25-Jun-16 World View -- Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets"
). But every day on
CNBC and Bloomberg, you hear experts say that stocks are
"underpriced." I used to post the names of these people and call them
liars and crooks, but nobody cares, so I don't bother anymore. That's
the thing that never ceases to amaze me. People openly and blatantly
provably lie about stock valuations on CNBC and Bloomberg, and
nobody cares. It's incredible.

And why shouldn't they lie? No one is going to call them on it,
except a nobody like me. And when the bubble bursts, they'll just
come back on and say, "Wow! That sure was a 'black swan.' Who could
have seen that coming?" Incredibly, these experts have absolutely
nothing to lose by lying, and everything to gain, and it's just grief
for anyone who calls them on it.

So let's relate this back to the situation in Iraq. The Baghdad
police have been using bogus "bomb detectors" for years, and
everyone in the government knows that they're bogus. Corruption
runs deep in Baghdad, so probably a lot of people in government
and in the police have made a lot of money reselling these bogus
bomb detectors. So what if people's lives are at stake? "If
there's ever a bombing, I'll just say I didn't know." Better
to let hundreds of people be killed than to tell the truth.

That's the world we live in. Everyone in Washington, on Wall Street,
in London, and elsewhere have absolutely nothing to lose and
everything to gain by lying and defrauding people. If there's a
problem, they find a scapegoat like James McCormick.

Bankers created tens of trillions of dollars of phony subprime
mortgage backed securities, with the result that millions of people
lost their homes or went bankrupt. But barely a single person has
gone to jail, even though the people who committed fraud are well
known to the Justice Department. Why should the Obama administration
prosecute anyone? These criminals have donated millions of dollars to
Obama's election campaigns and projects as payoff, so it's better to
be a criminal than to prosecute criminals. Meanwhile, the same
bankers are still in their jobs in banks, still defrauding people,
causing more people to go bankrupt and lose everything.

And that's how the government officials in Baghdad undoubtedly feel.
Al-Abadi has ordered that the police stop using the bogus devices, but
the same Iraqi officials are all in the same jobs, finding new forms
of corruption, and not caring in the least how many more people end up
with their guts sprayed around a public market somewhere in Baghdad.
Guardian (London-16-June) and Middle East Eye

****
**** Former ambassador Jim Moriarty describes the dancing people of Bangladesh
****

In the aftermath of the Friday overnight terror attack in Bangladesh's
capital city Dhaka, the BBC interviewed James F. Moriarty, America's
ambassador to Bangladesh, 2008-11. Here's what he said (my
transcription):

[indent]<QUOTE>"You're talking about the eighth most populous country
in the world, you're talking about a country with probably 150
million Muslims, most of them pretty moderate in terms of their
religion, and I think that's why you're seeing such a big emphasis
from the external terrorist groups right now. They're really want
to see countries like Bangladesh or for example Indonesia come
under a lot of stress, and see whether they can turn fairly
moderate countries into bastions of support for extreme Islam. ...

I think in both cases it's going to be fairly tough [for the
terrorists]. Bangladeshis have a fairly strong sense of national
identity. Part of that is Islam, but as I said it's a fairly
moderate form of Islam, and a large part of that is a Bengali
nationalism, not necessarily tied directly into the sense of being
an Islamic nation. It's got traditions, it's got singing,
dancing, it's got things that go back in history before the region
became Muslim."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This is about as silly as you can get. Moriarty paints a picture of
Bangladesh as a land of singing, dancing moderate Muslim Bengalis
being invaded by terror groups like ISIS.

As I've written several times, most recently yesterday,
there are two ethnic groups in Bangladesh, the
dominant Bengalis and the subservient Biharis, and outcome of the
bloody civil war of 1971. Today, there are hundreds of thousands of
Biharis living in refugee camps in filthy conditions, with the largest
camp just north of Dhaka. So Friday's attack was from a local group
of activist Biharis, inspired by ISIS. When these people see singing,
dancing Bengalis, the visceral reaction would be to kill them, not
join in the dancing.

At first I thought Moriarty was just another hack who had been given
an ambassadorship in return for a campaign donation, but I looked up
his background and it's quite impressive. It's almost certain that he
knows that his statement is completely ridiculous.

If that's true, then why did he do it? My guess is that it's the same
thing as the stock valuations or the bogus bomb detectors or crashing
software projects. You can't tell the truth because all you get is
grief. But if you lie, then you get plush jobs and invitations to
speak on the BBC.

In fact, just last month, he was appointed as the Bangladesh Country
Director by the Alliance for Bangladesh Worker Safety, a platform of
28 North American retailers and brands. He will lead strategic
oversight and outreach activities, with key stakeholders in
Bangladesh’s Government, garment industry, and non-governmental and
non-profit organizations. That's his reward for lying. Apparel Resources (23-May)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Baghdad, Karrada district, Haider al-Abadi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Fallujah, James McCormick,
Bangladesh, James F. Moriarty, Bengalis, Biharis

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe