Generational Dynamics World View

[pbrower2a]

Maybe people are getting wiser to spin, and the last one to lose it will get burned worst. Good reason exists for the honor codes at the military academies "Do not lie, do not cheat, and do not steal, and do not tolerate lying, cheating, and stealing by others". The secret is to not to do the things that might cause one to lie, cheat, or steal to protect a shady behavior. Lying recovers a piling up of lies to protect even a tiny lie. Cheating might get one an undeserved reputation for competence that one does not have and thus get one into a situation for which one is terribly unprepared. Stealing causes necessary assets to disappear. Deceiving an enemy in wartime needs the ring of truth. One might have to raid stores for necessary supplies, but one had better state what one takes to the source.

Spin is lying. We see much of it from the politicians that we have, and it works less well every time that it is tried. Saudi Arabia may not be the worst actor in the world, but it is not an effective liar.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Oct-18 World View -- WHO considers declaring Ebola outbreak as an international emergency

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• American CDC Ebola experts have been blocked from the outbreak zone in DR Congo
  
• WHO considers declaring Ebola outbreak as an international emergency
  

****
**** American CDC Ebola experts have been blocked from the outbreak zone in DR Congo
****


Ebola health worker in DR Congo (CNN)

It has now emerged that American Ebola experts from the Centers for
Disease Control (CDC) have been withdrawn from the outbreak zone in
North Kivu province in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This
will make the new outbreak more difficult to contain.

There are experts on the ground from other organizations, including
the World Health Organization (WHO), Doctors Without Borders (Médecins
Sans Frontières, MSF), and The Alliance for International Medical
Action (Alima).

The CDC experts are among the most experience Ebola experts on the
planet. According to Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health
Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health:

<QUOTE>"CDC has responded to nearly two dozen filovirus
outbreaks in its history and has people who’ve been working on
these issues for 30 years. It doesn’t make sense to have those
people hundreds or thousands of miles away from where the disease
is actually spreading.

It would provide a lot of value to have experienced leaders at
CDC who’ve been in the situation before contributing what they can
to the larger effort. I think it’s an important moment to think
about that."<END QUOTE>

Instead of being on the ground in the outbreak zone, CDC experts are
being given other assignments thousands of miles away, such as
advising DRC's ministry of health in the capital city Kinshasa.

News stories are providing few details about why they're blocked from
the outbreak zone, except that it's related to the attack in 2010 in
Benghazi, Libya, that killed US ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and
three other Americans. The inference that we're to draw, apparently,
is that Americans in the North Kivu war zone would be targets of
attacks similar to those against ambassador Stevens. Stat News and CNN

****
**** WHO considers declaring Ebola outbreak as an international emergency
****

The World Health Organization (WHO) announced on Monday that it will
hold an emergency committee meeting on Wednesday in Geneva. According
to a statement: "The committee will meet on October 17 in Geneva to
ascertain whether the outbreak constitutes a public health emergency
of international concern."

The designation "public health emergency of international concern"
refers to a pandemic that is so serious that it might spread to other
countries. There are now concerns that it could soon spread to Uganda
and Rwanda.

WHO has resisted that designation so far in eastern DRC, but over the
weekend a "second wave" of the Ebola virus was confirmed. There are
now 211 registered cases of Ebola, 176 confirmed and 35 probable, with
135 deaths. The number of cases has been expanding rapidly, more than
twice as fast as in September. There were six new cases over
the weekend.

Many new cases come out of funerals for previous victims. Even if a
funeral is conducted in a secure manner, the risk for Ebola
transmission is high, because viral loads are at their highest level
at the time of death.

The situation in North Kivu province is the worst possible scenario.
There is a major ethnic war in progress, and Ebola is now spreading in
the densely populated city of Beni, which has become the epicenter of
the pandemic.

The entire region is a war zone, and over one million people have been
driven from their homes by armed rebel groups, the Allied Democratic
Forces (ADF), fighting government troops. The fighting is preventing
doctors and experts from reaching infected people, in order to educate
the population and do contact tracing. Without contact tracing, there
is no way to stop or slow the spread of the disease.
AFP and Reuters and Center for Infectious Disease Research (CIDRAP)

Related Articles:

• Growth of Ebola cases suddenly surges in DR Congo, threatening Uganda, Rwanda (13-Oct-2018)
  
  
• World Health Organization fears 'perfect storm' could spread Ebola rapidly in DR Congo (26-Sep-2018)
  
  
• In dreaded scenario, Ebola spreads to densely populated war zone in Congo (25-Aug-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola,
Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, North Kivu, Beni,
Centers for Disease Control, CDC, Tom Inglesby,
World Health Organization, WHO,
Doctors Without Borders, Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF,
Alliance for International Medical Action, Alima,
J. Christopher Stevens, Benghazi, Libya,
Allied Democratic Forces, ADF

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Oct-18 World View -- Amazon's Jeff Bezos says America must be defended, while Google repudiates its 'Do No Evil' policy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Amazon's Jeff Bezos says that America must be defended
  
• Google repudiates its 'Don't Be Evil' conduct clause, and sides with China
  

****
**** Amazon's Jeff Bezos says that America must be defended
****


Jeff Bezos

At a time when employees of high tech companies like Google and
Microsoft are adopting holier-than-thou attitudes about defending the
United States of America, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said on Monday that
Amazon is going to work with the Pentagon, and that other high-tech
companies should do the same. He said in an interview:

<QUOTE>"If big tech companies are going to turn their back on
US Department of Defense, this country is going to be in trouble.
We are going to continue to support the DOD and I think we
should."<END QUOTE>

In recent months, Google has been almost enthusiastic in its
willingness to provide technology to the Chinese government and the
Chinese military, while at the same time management has given in to
demands that Google not supply technology needed by the US military to
defend the country.

Bezos acknowledged that Donald Trump is unpopular among some workers,
and particularly expressed disapproval of Trump's immigration policy,
but pointed out that this proves why America is still the best in the
world:

<QUOTE>I like this country. I know everybody is very
conflicted about the current politics and so on. This country is
a gem.

There aren't other countries where everybody is trying to get in.
I'd let them in if it were me. I like 'em, I want all of them
in. But this is a great country and it does need to be
defended."<END QUOTE>

Amazon is in the process of bidding for a major DoD contract call "The
Joint Enterprise Defense Initiative," or JEDI, a $10 billion
development project that will make a cloud computing and storage
platform available to all of DoD.

Last week, Google issued a statement saying: "we are not bidding on
the JEDI contract because first, we couldn’t be assured that it would
align with our AI Principles...." This might actually be a blessing
in disguise. Google has said that it will accede to China's demand
that all cloud passwords for Chinese citizens and businesses will be
made available to the Chinese government and military, and this would
represent a possible security risk to US DoD data on Google's servers.
As a Senior Software Engineer, I've worked on development of these
extremely large, complex systems, and I'm aware how easy it is for
bugs and systemic failure to permit data and services to be hacked.

Microsoft is being pressured to move in the same direction as Google.
A recent letter by employees describes Jedi as "a secretive $10
billion project with the ambition of building 'a more lethal' military
force overseen by the Trump Administration," and concludes,
"Microsoft, don’t bid on JEDI." However, Microsoft management has not
yet acceded to these demands.

Fortunately, there are still some American companies not being run by
children. Amazon is expected to be the lead contender for Jedi, but
Oracle and IBM are also expected to bid, and Microsoft may do so as
well. Wired and BBC and TechCrunch and Medium

****
**** Google repudiates its 'Don't Be Evil' conduct clause, and sides with China
****

When Google was launched in 1998, it's unofficial slogan was "Don't be
evil." It was a corporate principle that "you can make money without
doing evil," and "Don't be evil" was part of the company's official
code of conduct until this year.

With no fanfare, Google removed "Don't be evil" from its code of
conduct sometime between April 21 and May 4, when it simply
disappeared from the Google web site.

Shortly after that, in May, Google announced that would not renew its
contract with DoD for Project Maven, which provides AI technology for
analyzing drone footage, because its employees objected to doing any
work for the American military.

But in December of last year, Google announced that it would open a
state of the art AI development center in Shanghai, where the most
advanced AI technology would be made available to the Chinese
government and the Chinese military.

The biggest public scandal this year occurred when word leaked out in
July that Google for almost two years had 200 programmers working on
an advanced AI search engine for China called Dragonfly that would
detect users who made requests that violated Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) censorship rules, and would make personal identifying
information about such users available to the Chinese government and
Chinese military.

Google has refused comment about Project Dragonfly, saying that it's
an experimental system, with no current plans to deploy it. But in
fact, Google's search engine chief, Ben Gomes, told an internal
meeting in July that the plan was to launch the search engine as soon
as possible — and to get it ready to be "brought off the shelf and
quickly deployed" once approval from Beijing was received.

On Monday of this week, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, an American who was
born in India, defended Project Dragonfly. He said that Project
Dragonfly will still be able to answer "well over 99% of the queries”
put to it and that “there are many, many areas where we would provide
information better than what’s available." I'm not even sure that he
understood the message he was sending with that remark, but it implies
that the other 1% would be subject to arrest by China's police.

As China continues to prepare to launch a war against the United
States, it's hard to avoid the impression that Google has already
chosen the side that it wants to win that war, and it's not the United
States.

And somebody ought to tell Sundar Pichai that those same
super-intelligent weapon systems that Google is helping the Chinese
military to build will also be used against his native India. Perhaps
that thought never occurred to him.

And finally, Chinese employees working in America should realize how
dangerous Google's policy is for them personally. During World War
II, Japanese Americans were interned. After 9/11, Muslim Americans
were jailed without trial. The path that Google is on will adversely
affect all Chinese-Americans, and an anti-Chinese public mood could
materialize overnight. Gizmodo (18-May) and Gizmodo (1-Jun) and CNBC (13-Dec-2017) and NY Times (16-Aug) and The Intercept (9-Oct) and Washington Post

Related Articles:

• Google is repeating the mistakes that IBM made in helping the Nazis (06-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Trump blocks Broadcom acquisition of Qualcomm over national security (14-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Huawei scandal exposes potential 'Cyberwar Pearl Harbor' from China (14-Oct-2012)
  
  
• New report reveals massive cyber war attack by China's army (20-Feb-2013)
  
  
• Major defense contractor QinetiQ hacked for years by China (06-May-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Amazon, Jeff Bezos,
Joint Enterprise Defense Initiative, JEDI,
Google, Project Maven, Project Dragonfly, China,
Ben Gomes, Sundar Pichai

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Oct-18 World View -- Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov
  
• Ukraine prepares to challenge Russia in the Sea of Azov
  
• Violent school massacre in occupied Crimea kills 19 people
  

****
**** Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov
****


Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov.

Readers who remember ancient history (2014) may recall a war between
Russia and Ukraine. Russia invaded Donbas (eastern Ukraine) and is
still occupying it, and then Russia invaded, occupied and annexed
Ukraine's Crimea peninsula.

The war in Donbas has not ended, as there have been regular clashes
between Ukrainian and Russian forces. These clashes have occasionally
been severe enough for observers to raise concerns that Russia was
planning a new offensive for Russian forces to attack and occupy the
seaports at Mariupol and Berdyansk, and then continue to move west in
order to create a land bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea.

That hasn't happened, but many observers believe that Russia is making
preparations to accomplish the same objective through a naval attack
from the Sea of Azov. In the last three years, the Russians have been
doing the following:

• Built a bridge from Russia to occupied Crimea over the Kerch
  Strait.
  
  
• Use this bridge to control access of commercial ships to Ukraine
  ports along the Sea of Azov.
  
  
• Relocate an armada of Russian ships into the Sea of Azov.
  
  
• Constantly harrass international shipping through the Kerch Strait
  and in the Sea of Azov. According to the US State Department, Russia
  has blocked dozens of commercial ships trying to reach Ukrainian
  ports.

Many observers believe that these steps are all in preparation for a
naval assault on Mariupol, Berdyansk, and other Ukrainian ports along
the Sea of Azov, with the objective of creating a land bridge between
Russia and occupied Crimea, and to taking full military control of the
entire Sea of Azov. US State Dept. and RFE/RL
and RFE/RL (7-Aug)

****
**** Ukraine prepares to challenge Russia in the Sea of Azov
****

Following years of neglect, Ukraine is hurriedly tying to reinforce
its naval capabilities in the Sea of Azov. Ukraine is considering
buying three Danish Standard Flex 300 patrol vessels for $117 million,
and has received two Island-class Coast Guard cutters from the United
States. These vessels will be upgraded and deployed in the Sea of
Azov.

However, this attempt to stand up an "Azov Flotilla" will not be
enough to challenge Russia's overwhelming naval presence, consisting
of around 50-70 Russian "coast guard" vessels.

For that reason, Ukraine is also formulating a diplomatic and
political strategy to challenge Russia. This would include seeking
support from Nato and the European Union, and lodging a complaint
against Russia at the Permanent Court of Arbitration.

With both Ukraine and Russia becoming increasingly aggressive, the Sea
of Asov is becoming an increasingly important flash point that could
lead to a new conflict.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, both Russia and
Ukraine are in a generational Crisis era. In 1932-33, millions of
innocent Ukrainians – men, women, and children – starved to death as a
result of the deliberate policies of the regime of Joseph Stalin. The
genocidal atrocity is known as the Holodomor, which means "death by
hunger." Stalin's regime seized crops and farms across Ukraine,
leaving the population to starve to death. It's quite possible that
Russia's president Vladimir Putin would like to find a way to repeat
Stalin's achievement. Jamestown and Daily Signal and Sputnik News and Government of Ukraine
and (Trans)

Related Articles:

• Russia's actions in Sea of Azov raise fears of another invasion of Ukraine (07-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Ukraine seizes Russian ship in Sea of Azov in retaliation for Kerch Strait blockade (06-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine (14-Oct-2015)
  
  
• BBC reporters attacked by Russian thugs after finding evidence of new Ukraine invasion (19-Sep-2014)
  
  
• Russia's sophisticated disinformation campaign over Ukraine (15-Aug-2014)
  
  
• UK honors the journalist who documented Stalin's man-made 1932-33 Holodomor famine in Ukraine (22-Nov-2009)
  

****
**** Violent school massacre in occupied Crimea kills 19 people
****


CCTV image of shooter Vladislav Roslyakov on Wednesday at school. His outfit is similar to that of Columbine High School killer Eric Harris

An 18-year-old Russian student, Vladislav Roslyakov, on Wednesday
exploded a homemade nail bomb and then went on a shooting rampage,
killing 19 others before killing himself in the school library.

The mass school shooting at occurred at the Kerch Polytechnic College,
in the city of Kerch in occupied Crimea. The city is located on the
eastern shore of Crimea on the Black Sea near the Kerch Strait.

Russian officials initially went into their usual spin and deception
mode, trying to hide what happened, or put the blame on anyone but
themselves. They first reported it as a gas explosion, and then said
it was a terrorist bombing.

Russian politicians in Crimea's parliament then tried to put the blame
on Ukrainian nationalists, saying, "The entire evil inflicted on the
land of Crimea is coming from the official Ukrainian authorities."
But friends of the shooter said that the teenager hated the school and
that he wanted revenge against his teachers.

There are similarities between this school shooting and the April 20,
1999, massacre at Columbine High School, in Columbine Colorado that
killed 13 people. Roslyakov was dressed in an outfit similar to that
of Eric Harris, one of the killers in the Columbine massacre.
Furthermore Roslyakov killed himself in the school library, just as
Harris and his partner killed themselves in the school library.
CBS News and Daily Mail (London) and AP



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, Donbas, Crimea,
Kerch Strait, Sea of Azov, Mariupol, Berdyansk,
Josef Stalin, Holodomor, Vladimir Putin
Kerch Polytechnic College, Vladislav Roslyakov,
Columbine High School

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Oct-18 World View -- Brexit appears headed for worst of all possible worlds for UK

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Brexit appears headed for worst of all possible worlds for UK
  
• The most likely deal: 'Extend and Pretend'
  
• The Northern Ireland 'backstop'
  

****
**** Brexit appears headed for worst of all possible worlds for UK
****


Brexit warning sign on road running across the Ireland-Northern Ireland border (AFP)

Ever since the referendum passed on June 23, 2016, Brexit, the UK exit
from the European Union, was never going to be anything but a disaster
for the UK, and almost as much for the EU, and increasingly there's
a search to mitigate the disaster as much as possible.

A month ago, Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), said:

<QUOTE>"I’m a desperate optimist, and I very much hope and
pray that there will be a deal between the European Union and the
UK.

Let me be clear, compared with today’s smooth single market, all
the likely Brexit scenarios will have costs for the economy and to
a lesser extent as well for the EU.

The larger the impediments to trade in the new relationship, the
costlier it will be. This should be fairly obvious, but it seems
that sometimes it is not."<END QUOTE>

Lagarde said that the IMF will issue its latest forecast for global
economic growth in November, and that "clouds on the horizon have not
become lighter but darker."

The UK is leaving the EU on March 29, 2019. The most severe
consequences for the UK economy would occur if the UK "crashed out" of
the EU with no deal whatsoever. In this case, there would no longer
be a "smooth, single market," no "frictionless trade" at all between
the UK and EU. Instead, there would be a "hard border" between the UK
and EU, which would damage tens or hundreds of thousands of individual
trading relationships that for years have depended on frictionless
trade.

The main stumbling block in the negotiations is and always has been
the problem of Northern Ireland. After Brexit, the (southern)
Republic of Ireland would be in the EU, while Northern Ireland would
not, but would still be in the UK. That means that there could be a
frictionless border between Northern Ireland and Ireland (which
everyone says they want) or a frictionless border between Northern
Ireland and Britain (which the UK wants, but the EU couldn't care less
about), but not both.

UK politicians in London, led by prime minister Theresa May, have for
months been in chaos debating this issue, with the "Remainers" wanted
as close a relationship to the EU as possible, and the "Brexiteers"
wanting a full and complete break. But as the weeks and months have
gone by, the London fog finally seems to be clearing, well enough that
we can begin to make out the shapes of what the final deal is most
likely to be. Reuters and Irish Times

****
**** The most likely deal: 'Extend and Pretend'
****

Readers may recall what happened with Greece's financial crisis, when
it was clear that Greece could not meet its debt payments, and would
in fact never be able to do so. The EU and the European Central Bank
came up with an "extend and pretend" policy, which lowered the
interest rates and stretched out the debt payments to decades, and
then pretended that by 2100 Greece would be able to repay its debts.
Extend and pretend.

So everyone in the EU and the UK, not counting the hardcore
Brexiteers, is in favor of a two-year Brexit transition period --
lasting until December 31, 2020. This was agreed in March, and now
appears to be set in stone. It's back in the news because on
Wednesday, both Theresa May and the EU said they were discussing
extending it for an additional year.

The transition period will be pretty much the worst of all worlds.
The terms will be as follows:

• Freedom of movement: EU citizens arriving in the UK and UK
  citizens arriving in the EU will enjoy the same freedom of movement
  rights. This is the same as today, and it's a policy that Brexiteers
  oppose because of migrants from Eastern Europe.
  
  
• The UK will still be part of existing EU trade deals, but unlike
  today, will be allowed to negotiate trade deals -- though those trade
  deals will only take effect after the transition period has
  ended.
  
  
• The UK will still be in the customs union and single market, so
  there will be no frictionless borders -- same as today.
  
  
• The UK would still be under the jurisdiction of the European Court
  of Justice (ECJ).
  
  
• The UK would still be subject to all EU regulations. But, unlike
  today, the UK will have absolutely no say in changes to the
  regulations.
  
  
• The UK would have to pay all EU taxes - contributions to EU
  budgets, just like today.
  
  
• The UK will effectively stay part of the Common Fisheries Policy.
  This means that French and English fishermen will be allowed to fish
  in each other's waters.

So the whole point of why the Brexiteers wanted Brexit was to get away
from the EU regulations, EU taxes, and the ECJ. In the transition
period, all of these will remain, with the additional restriction that
the UK will have to obey all the regulations and pay all the money,
but will have no say in changing them. That's what I meant by "the
worst of all worlds."

According to Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake saying the
extension was merely “kicking the can further down the road and
delaying, by a bit, driving off the cliff.” iNews (London)

****
**** The Northern Ireland 'backstop'
****

But wait! How does the transition period solve the Northern Ireland
problem? Well, it doesn't, but it gives the politicians 2-3 more
years to find a solution. And yet, no one that I've heard or read
believes that an extra 2-3 years will solve the problem any more than
the last two years have.

That brings us to the "backstop." That's an "insurance policy" that
the EU is insisting on. They want the UK to commit to a specific plan
to preserve the frictionless border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland when the transition period end. And they've already rejected
every UK backstop proposal, including the delusional hope that in 2-3
years the technology will have been developed to enforce customs rules
on the Irish border without requiring commercial vehicles to stop for
inspection. Well, maybe in 2-3 years some technology will develop,
but no one really believes that will happen.

The backstop that the EU wants is that at the end of the transition
period, Northern Ireland will be part of the EU customs union and
single market. That means that there will be a hard border between
Northern Ireland and Britain. That means that UK citizens traveling
between Northern Ireland and Britain will have to go through customs,
and it means that goods shipped between the two will have to be
inspected.

Britain's prime minister Theresa May says that this is unacceptable
because it would split the sovereignty of the United Kingdom.

This is still a seemingly unsurmountable obstacle to achieving
any sort of deal before the UK leaves the EU on March 29.
Guardian (London) and BBC and Irish Times

Related Articles:

• Report: EU and UK ready to accept 'fudge' to get through Brexit (02-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Ireland hiring 1,000 new customs and veterinary inspectors for hard Brexit (20-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Brexit negotiations in crisis as deadlines approach with no agreements (09-May-2018)
  
  
• European anger and British self-delusion follow Brexit plan speech (19-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Brexit, EU, UK,
Theresa May, Greece, extend and pretend, Tom Brake,
Christine Lagarde, International Monetary Fund, IMF

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Oct-18 World View -- Israel backs down from full-scale attack on Gaza after family escapes rocket

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel backs down from full-scale attack on Gaza after family escapes rocket
  
• Israel adopts a go-slow strategy with new 'rules of the game'
  

****
**** Israel backs down from full-scale attack on Gaza after family escapes rocket
****


Destroyed house after being hit by rocket on Tuesday morning in Beersheba (AP)

At 3:43 am on Tuesday, a sleeping mother and father heard warning
sirens, woke up their three children, and pulled them into a safe room
just before a Grad rocket fell through the roof of their Beersheba
home and landed in one of the second story bedrooms, almost completely
destroying the structure.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad on Tuesday denied that they were responsible
for the missile attack, but their denials were not considered
credible, since no one else has the type of Grad missile that struck
the home.

Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman publicly called for a powerful
military response to Hamas:

<QUOTE>"Before going to war, we need to exhaust all other
possibilities, because when we’re sending soldiers to battle we
know that some of them aren’t returning home. We’re obligated to
exhaust every other way, every other option.

Upon entering the Defense Ministry I said — Israel has no right,
no option, no luxury to conduct wars of choice. We can conduct
only wars of no choice. In the last months we made every effort,
we’ve overturned every stone and at this point ‘no choice’ is
behind us.

We have arrived at the point where we have to land as strong as
possible a blow on Hamas."<END QUOTE>

Israel's Security Cabinet had convened for a midnight emergency
session on Thursday morning, and many Israelis believed that they
would be at war with Gaza by morning.

However, there was no war. According to reports, prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu decided that no such military attack would take
place. Israel has invaded Gaza three times in the last ten years to
put a stop to missile attacks, most recently in the 67 day summer war
in 2014. Each of these wars has ended in a ceasefire, and than after
another period of relative calm, another round of fighting begins.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will never be a resolution
until there's a full-scale regional war between Jews and Arabs.

I posted my very first Generational Dynamics analysis on May 1, 2003,
when president George Bush published his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace,"
which described the details of a two-state solution. I wrote that Generational Dynamics predicts that
the plan would fail because the Jews and the Arabs would be refighting
the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the
creation of the state of Israel. Here's what I wrote:

<QUOTE>"We are now in the early stages of replaying the
extremely violent, bloody wars between the Jews and the
Palestinians that took place between them from 1936 to 1949. So
far the war has been little more than a series of skirmishes, as
it was in the late 1930s. The full-fledged violent, bloody war is
awaiting a generational change.

There's an incredible irony going on in the Mideast today, in that
the leaders of two opposing sides are, respectively, Ariel Sharon
and Yassir Arafat.

These two men hate each other, but they're the ones cooperating
with each other (consciously or not) to prevent a major Mideast
conflagration. Both of them remember the wars of the 1940s, and
neither of them wants to see anything like that happen again. And
it won't happen again, as long as both of these men are in charge.

The disappearance of these two men will be part of an overall
generational change in the Mideast that will lead to a major
conflagration within a few years. It's possible that the
disappearance of Arafat alone will trigger a war, just as the
election of Lincoln ignited the American Civil War. (It's
currently American policy to get rid of Arafat. My response is
this: Be careful what you wish for.)"<END QUOTE>

Since that time, Yassir Arafat died, and was replaced by Mahmoud
Abbas, who was also a survivor of the 1948 war and remembered its
horrors. Since then, Abbas has lost control of Hamas, which has been
run by much younger leaders.

Since 2006, there have been five wars involving Israel and
Palestinians: the war between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely
on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas
and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza;
Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in
2009; the two wars between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012
and July-August 2014.

These on-and-off clashes cannot go on forever. At some point, they'll
be resolved by a full-fledged generational crisis war that engulfs the
region. In the meantime, there is no chance whatsoever that any sort
of Israeli-Palestinian "peace process" will succeed, and that's just
as true today as it was in 2003. Jerusalem Post and World Israel News and Bloomberg

****
**** Israel adopts a go-slow strategy with new 'rules of the game'
****

By Thursday morning, after the emergency midnight meeting of cabinet
ministers, the fiery rhetoric had softened. Housing Minsiter Yoav
Galant said:

<QUOTE>"I can’t address the content of cabinet discussion but
I can say one thing very explicitly — the rules of the game are
going to change.

We won’t accept more fire and [border] fence terror."<END QUOTE>

However, the cabinet meeting decision not to launch a military
operation was condemned by other government leaders. According to
Regional Council head Gadi Yarkoni:

<QUOTE>"We had every reason to deliver a serious response in
a way that they would understand the message. We should have
taken advantage of what happened in Beersheba to restore
deterrence, but unfortunately that did not happen."<END QUOTE>

I googled Gadi Yarkoni, and learned that he was born in 1967, which
would put him in Israel's equivalent of Generation-X, much younger
than Netanyahu, born in 1949, or Mahmoud Abbas, born in 1935, or Hamas
head Khaled Mashal, born in 1956. When there's an all-out war between
Jews and Palestinians, it will be launched by younger people, such as
Yarkoni and a young Palestinian leader.

Although no full-scale war is imminent, Israel's army has been cleared
to follow more aggressive tactics. This includes a green light for
troops to fire at Gazans who are farther away from the fence than
previously allowed, as well a more forceful response to incendiary
balloon launches. According to reports, the army will ramp up the
severity of its responses gradually, but ultimately adopt a
zero-tolerance policy toward rocket attacks, arson balloons and
rioting along the Israeli border. Times of Israel and Jerusalem Post


Related Articles

• Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
  
  
• Gaza violence surges in Palestinian 'Great March for Return' into Israel (15-May-2018)
  
  
• Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive (18-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Jewish extremists clash violently with Israeli soldiers over settlements (05-Jan-2005)
  
  
• Yasser Arafat dies (14-Nov-2004)
  
  
• Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (01-May-2003)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Beersheeba, Hamas, Islamic Jihad,
Avigdor Lieberman, Benjamin Netanyahu, Yassir Arafat, Ariel Sharon,
Mahmoud Abbas, Operation Cast Lead,
Yoav Galant, Gadi Yarkoni, Khaled Mashal

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Oct-18 World View -- Pro-independence rallies in Taiwan press for faster separation from China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pro-independence rallies in Taiwan press for faster separation from China
  
• China continues massive crackdown on non-indigenous religions
  
• China's deal with the Vatican stirs concerns in Taiwan
  

****
**** Pro-independence rallies in Taiwan press for faster separation from China
****


Pro-independence demonstrators shout slogans during a rally in Taipei, Taiwan, on Saturday (AP)

Thousands of pro-independence demonstrators rallied in Taipei,
Taiwan's capital city, on Saturday to pressure the government of
president Tsai Ing-wen to be more confrontational with mainland China
and to move faster towards independence.

Tsai Ing-wen leads the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),
which was formed as a reaction to the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre
in Beijing, where several thousand peacefully protesting students were
brutally murdered by Chinese security forces in a huge bloodbath.
They have been "pro-independence" from the beginning, but in official
government positions when winning elections, they've adopted the 1992
"One China Consensus" which says that China and Taiwan are one
country, but which leaves the meaning of that phrase ambiguous.

However, since winning the presidential election early in 2016, Tsai
Ing-wen has gone farther than previous DPP politicians by refusing to
endorse the 1992 consensus, instead saying that she "respected ... the
common understanding" between China and Taiwan, without saying what
that means. Her refusal to endorse the 1992 consensus has triggered
the usual stream of hysterical screaming threats from Chinese
officials, and relations between China and Taiwan have been
deteriorating steadily.

The rally was organized by a new pressure group called the Formosa
Alliance. The rally actually represents a split in the
pro-independence movement because Tsai has been taking a relatively
cautious approach to China, while the Formosa group want to take steps
toward independence more quickly.

In 2005, China passed the Anti-Secession Law,
which orders the army to invade Taiwan if any
Taiwanese official makes any move toward independence, whether by word
or by deed. Taiwanese officials have said many things since 2005
that, arguably, could trigger the anti-secession law, and Saturday's
independence rally adds one more.

Because China's armed forces are several times bigger than Taiwan's,
it's generally believed that China would easily defeat Taiwan in a
war, especially if the US did not honor its commitment to mutual
defense. The quick win would be achieved first by a barrage of
missiles striking government and military targets, followed quickly by
special forces ferried across the strait for a quick kill.

However, Foreign Policy has published a detailed analysis by
which Taiwan can win a war with China. The Taiwanese, Japanese and
American leaders will have 30-60 days' notice of an impending invasion,
because China will have to make preparations. So the Taiwanese will
be prepared with booby traps, explosives, sea mines, and the Taiwanese
soldiers will be far better prepared than their Chinese counterparts.

China has been using money and extortion to force a number of
countries and international companies to declare that Taiwan is a
province of China. Since Tsai became president, five countries have
ended diplomatic relations with Taiwan and begun diplomatic relations
with China: Sao Tome and Principe in 2016, Panama in 2017, and the
Dominican Republic, Burkina Faso and El Salvador in 2018. Only 16
countries plus the Vatican now recognise Taiwan under its formal name:
the Republic of China. China has also pressured international
companies, including airlines, to remove "Taiwan" from their company
web sites, or replace it with "Taiwan, province of China," if the
companies want to continue doing business in China.

With China and the Vatican having concluded a historic agreement on
the appointment of bishops in China, people in Taiwan are now
concerned that the Vatican will also switch diplomatic relations from
Taiwan to China. Channel News Asia and <stdurl
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics...eet-taipei
"South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)"#> and Bloomberg and Foreign Policy (25-Sep)

****
**** China continues massive crackdown on non-indigenous religions
****

By one estimate, China’s Christian population has swelled from a few
million in the early 1980s to 100 million this year – in comparison,
the Communist Party has 90 million members.

China this year has become increasingly bloody and violent against the
four supposedly approved non-indigenous religions, Islam, Buddhism,
Catholicism, and Protestantism, as I described in a recent article:
"14-Oct-18 World View -- China defends million-prisoner 'reeducation camps' and Sinicization of Islam in Xinjiang"

In that article, some commenters criticized me for implying that Islam
and Christianity are equivalent in some way. Actually, the article in
no way implies that. The point was that the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) considers Islam and Christianity to be equivalent, and the same
for all of the non-indigenous religions.

In China's multi-millennial imperialistic history, China has always
been at war or close to it -- invading neighbors to exterminate them
and take their land, or planning and preparing for such an invasion,
or being invaded by a neighbor, or in the midst of a massive internal
civil war. China's indigenous "religions" -- Sun Tzu's Art of War,
Confucianism and Daoism -- are all aimed at unifying behind the
government and winning wars.

Each one of the non-indigenous religions has been used at one time or
another, sometimes successfully sometimes not, as a belief system to
create a populist movement to overthrow a dynasty or a government.

This became particularly frightening to the CCP on June 4, 1989, when
tens thousands of students from all over China traveled to Beijing and
rallied in Tiananmen Square, causing the CCP to vicious murder
thousands of them, creating a bloodbath. This show of mass protest
showed the Chinese leadership how easy it would be for them to be
toppled by a mass movement, and so they've been extremely vicious
towards all non-indigenous religions. And then when the Soviet
Communist Party collapsed in 1991, they went into full-scale panic.

So to the CCP, Islam and Christianity are exactly the same, as are all
the non-indigenous religions. And they all must be subject to
"Sinicization," which means that they must conform to Chinese
government policies or face jailing or destruction.

In April of this year, China's government issued its Sinicization
decree, called by the Orwellian name "China's Policies and Practices
on Protecting Freedom of Religious Belief."

There are six areas of Sinicization: intensifying political
identification, integrating religion into Chinese culture,
establishing theological thought with Chinese characteristics, setting
up a management system for the church with Chinese characteristics,
exploring liturgical expression with Chinese elements, and using
Chinese aesthetics in church buildings, pictures and sacred music.

According to the decree:

<QUOTE>"It also means guiding religious groups to support the
leadership of the CPC and the socialist system; uphold and follow
the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics; develop
religions in the Chinese context; embrace core socialist values;
carry forward China’s fine traditions; integrate religious
teachings and rules with Chinese culture; abide by state laws and
regulations, and accept state administration in accordance with
the law."<END QUOTE>

This paragraph gives complete administrative control of the religion
to the CCP, and permits the CCP to monitor all religious activities.
The crackdown has been particularly brutal this year.


China's destruction of the Golden Lampstand evangelical mega-church, which reportedly had a congregation of 50,000 people (AP)

Several months ago, China's storm troopers demolished a massive
evangelical church using bulldozers and dynamite. The Jindengtai
("Golden Lampstand") mega-church, which reportedly had a congregation
of 50,000 people, was demolished. Last month, the Zion Protestant
Church in Beijing was banned because the administration refused to
install closed-circuit television cameras that the CCP could use to
monitor all activity.

In other cases, Chinese policies have stormed into people's homes and
replaced the pictures of Jesus Christ and other religious symbols with
pictures of Xi Jinping, with the implication that people should be
worshipping Xi Jinping as God.

Any person who violates the government's rules can be tortured or
jailed or sent to reeducation camps. The most extreme example of this
so far is Xinjiang province, where a million ethnic Uighurs are being
tortured, raped and beaten in reeducation camps.

I was listening to a BBC report a couple of days ago, interviewing
someone who had a number of Uighur friends living in Xinjiang
province. He rattled off a list of the offenses that could get you
sent to a reeducation camp, things like not saying "hello" to a
Chinese official when you pass him in the street. He also mentioned
"giving up smoking." It turns out that if you give up smoking, then
it means that you're planning to become an extremist and terrorist, so
you have to be sent to a reeducation camp. State Council Information Office - Protecting religious freedom and
Deutche Welle (19-Jan-2018) and Reuters and China Today

****
**** China's deal with the Vatican stirs concerns in Taiwan
****

Another section of the sinicization document says the following:

<QUOTE>"Religious groups and religious affairs are not
subject to control by foreign countries.... This principle is a
historic choice made by Chinese religious believers in the Chinese
people’s struggle for national independence and social progress,
as Catholicism and Protestantism, which were known as foreign
religions in China, had long been controlled and utilized by
colonialists and imperialists."<END QUOTE>

This rule has been particularly applied to Catholics, since Catholics
have allegiance to the Pope in the Vatican, and the Pope is presumably
either a colonialist or imperialist.

There are about twelve million Catholics in China. Seven million of
them belong to the Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association, which is
actually a CCP political organization, and is "Catholic" in name only.
The other five million belong to "underground" Catholic churches,
which are barely tolerated by the government, but which retain
allegiance to the Pope.

In the last few decades, many Catholic priests in China have gone to
jail for years and been tortured for their refusal to reject their
vows and the guidance of the Pope.

So many of these people feel betrayed by the Pope, because the Vatican
last month agreed to a "compromise" where the Vatican recognized seven
bishops who were ordained by the CCP without the approval of the
Vatican. There was another part to the deal, where China promised to
accept some bishops in the "underground" church who had been ordained
by the Vatican, but China has so far not fulfilled that promise.

It appears that the Vatican has completely given in to China in order
to gain approval from China.

This has raised concerns in Taiwan that the Vatican will go further in
giving in to China by cutting ties with Taiwan.

Taiwan has about 300,000 Catholics, and Taiwan, unlike China, has
complete freedom of religion. The Taiwanese government apparently
does not fear that the Catholics will form a secret society whose
purpose is to overthrow the government, which is what has happened
many times in China. If, as many fear, the Vatican withdraws its
recognition from Taiwan, then the Pope will lose all credibility with
the Catholics in Taiwan, and will be held in contempt by millions of
people in "underground" Catholic churches in China. SCMP (22-Sep) and Diplomat (21-Sep) and South China Morning Post (30-Mar) and Free Catholics in China and
South China Morning Post

Related Articles

• China defends million-prisoner 'reeducation camps' and Sinicization of Islam in Xinjiang (14-Oct-2018)
  
  
• University of N. Florida and Pentagon cut ties with China's Confucius Institutes (30-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Taiwan says that China is 'out of control' after El Salvador switches allegiance (22-Aug-2018)
  
  
• China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea (16-Dec-2017)
  
  
• China Prime Minister warns country becoming unstable (24-Jan-2006)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen Democratic Progressive Party, DPP,
China, Tiananmen Square Massacre, Formosa Alliance,
Sinicization, Islam, Buddhism, Catholicism, Protestantism,
Chinese Communist Party, CCP,
Golden Lampstand evangelical mega-church, Zion Protestant Church,
Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association

Permanent web link to this article
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Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Oct-18 World View -- Trump targets China by cancelling arms control treaty with Russia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Trump cancels nuclear proliferation treaty with Russia
  
• China warns that the decision will 'cause many negative effects'
  

****
**** Trump cancels nuclear proliferation treaty with Russia
****


China's mobile DF-41 missile would be illegal under the INF treaty

Donald Trump has announced that the US will will leave the
Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF), that the US signed
with Russia in 1987, and has been called a historic arms control
treaty.

The treaty was signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. It was
a response to a growing missile standoff in Europe, where Soviet and
American nuclear short range and cruise missiles were pointed at each
other. The treaty ended a dangerous standoff.

Both Barack Obama and Donald Trump have accused the Russians of
violating the treaty in the last decade with new developments of
cruise missiles. According to Trump on Saturday:

<QUOTE>"Russia has violated the agreement. They’ve been
violating it for many years and I don’t know why President Obama
didn’t negotiate or pull out.

We’re not going to let them violate a nuclear agreement and do
weapons and we’re not allowed to. We’re the ones that have stayed
in the agreement and we’ve honored the agreement but Russia has
not unfortunately honored the agreement so we’re going to
terminate the agreement, we’re going to pull out. ...

Unless Russia comes to us and China comes to us and they all come
to us and they say, ‘Let’s all of us get smart and let’s none of
us develop those weapons,’ but if Russia’s doing it and if China’s
doing it and we’re adhering to the agreement, that’s
unacceptable. So we have a tremendous amount of money to play with
with our military."<END QUOTE>

Russia has accused the US of also violating the agreement pointing,
for example, to unmanned drones that can serve the same functions as
cruise missiles. This may well be a valid argument, but what it shows
is that, after 30 years, the treaty is out of date anyway.

Russian senior lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev said on Sunday said that
Trump's announcement means that "Mankind is facing full chaos in the
nuclear weapons sphere."

Leonid Slutsky, who leads the Foreign Affairs Committee said that
Trump is placing “a huge mine under the whole disarmament process on
the planet.”

The real risk will be borne by European allies, according to Kingston
Reif, director for disarmament and threat reduction policy at the Arms
Control Association, a think tank. “This removes all constraints on
the production and fielding of Russia’s illegal missile, thereby
increasing the threat to our allies in range of the missiles, leaves
the United States holding the bag for the treaty’s demise, and creates
another source of division between us.”

Mikhail Gorbachev said that the announcement "is not the work of a
great mind." He added:

<QUOTE>"Do they really not understand in Washington what this
can lead to? [The decision] will undermine all the efforts that
were made by the leaders of the USSR and the United States
themselves to achieve nuclear disarmament.

[A]ll agreements aimed at nuclear disarmament and the limitation
of nuclear weapons must be preserved for the sake of life on
Earth."<END QUOTE>

Russia Today and Time and CNBC and AP

****
**** China warns that the decision will 'cause many negative effects'
****

Since the announcement, it's become increasingly clear that the real
target of Trump's announcement is China. According to a CIA analysis
in 1983:

<QUOTE>"China's position on arms control is dictated by its
interests in: 1) maintaining a free hand to expand its nuclear
deterrent capabilities; 2) exercising some influence over US-USSR
strategic arms talks that could adversely affect Chinese security;
and 3) enhancing China's status and influence in the Third
World. The Chinese also have sought to promote their commercial
interests through the sale of conventional arms."<END QUOTE>

China has indeed taken advantage of its refusal to join any arms
control agreement. As we've been reporting for years, China has
developed one nuclear ballistic weapons system after another with no
purpose except to attack American cities, American bases, and American
aircraft carriers. It really doesn't make sense that an aggressive,
imperial, militaristic China should have no restrictions developing
nuclear missiles, when other countries are bound by arms control
treaties.

In particular, China has had a free hand developing and deploying
intermediate-range nuclear missiles of its own, including missiles
designed to take out US aircraft carriers patrolling the waters of the
Western Pacific. China is estimated to have 2,000 ballistic and
cruise missiles in its inventory, almost all of which would be in
violation of this treaty.

According to Stephen Nagy, a senior associate professor at the
International Christian University in Tokyo:

<QUOTE>"China has not signed the agreement and has been
producing mid-range missiles and so-called carrier killers to
asymmetrically increase the costs of an American-led naval
containment strategy. The US is likely withdrawing to send a
message to Beijing that the US can and will produce mid-range
nuclear weapons that can erode away China’s existing asymmetric
advantage."<END QUOTE>

China's Foreign Ministry spokesman said the following:

<QUOTE>"The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is an
important treaty on arms control and disarmament signed by the
United States and the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. It
has played an important role in easing the international
relations, moving forward the nuclear disarmament process and
safeguarding global strategic balance and stability. It is still
highly relevant today. Unilaterally withdrawing from the treaty
will cause many negative effects.

What needs to be stressed is that making an issue out of China on
withdrawing from the treaty is totally wrong. We hope that the
relevant country can cherish the hard-won outcomes achieved over
the years, prudently and properly handle the issues related to the
treaty through dialogue and consultation and think twice before
withdrawing from the treaty."<END QUOTE>

So China wants the US and Russia to be bound by the treaty, while
China is not. No surprise there. However, when she talks about
causing "many negative effects," we might ask, What is she referring
to?

Whenever I talk about various policies, everything from tariffs and
trade to canceling a North Korea meeting, that completely baffle the
mainstream media, I always come back to the same point. Trump is
aware of the Generational Dynamics analysis and predictions that China
is preparing for full-scale war with the United States. Trump is
aware of this because he was educated by Steve Bannon, who is an
expert on both military history and Generational Dynamics.

So as I always point out, Trump's policies, whether trade or arms
control, have the objective of trying to end China's plans for a
preemptive attack on the United States. And as I always point out, a
war with China is 100% certain, but I'm not going to criticize Trump
for trying to prevent a world war.

But all of these policies are dual-edged. Yes, these policies might
cause the Chinese to postpone their plans, but it might also cause
them to bring these plans forward. Those might be the "negative side
effects" that China's Foreign Ministry is talking about.

Generational crisis wars are not based on rationality and reason.
They're based on desperation and panic. China has numerous domestic
problems -- increasing numbers of "mass incidents," a
highly-imbalanced economy being centrally managed but poorly managed,
numerous bubbles and financial distortions -- and a restive population
that, along with Winnie the Pooh, strikes terror in the hearts of the
Communist central committee. These are more than enough to cause
desperation and anxiety, and could trigger a military panic at any
time. CIA (1-Sep-1983) and Bloomberg and Russia Today and China's Foreign Ministry

Related Articles:

• China, North and South Korea confounded by cancellation of Kim Jong-un meeting (26-Aug-2018)
  
  
• China deploys cruise and surface-to-air missiles in South China Sea (04-May-2018)
  
  
• China builds illegal surface-to-air missile sites in South China Sea (03-Jul-2017)
  
  
• China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect and attack America (27-Jan-2017)
  
  
• China's fury grows over South Korea's plan to deploy THAAD anti-missile system (10-Aug-2016)
  
  
• China close to deploying very long range DF-41 missile (01-Apr-2016)
  
  
• China's weaponry highlighted by the anti-American 'carrier killer' (04-Sep-2015)
  
  
• China tests hypersonic missile designed to defeat American missile defenses (17-Jun-2015)
  
  
• China conducts flight test of DF-41 long-range nuclear-capable missile (23-Dec-2013)
  
  
• China moves missiles near coast to target Japan (01-Mar-2013)
  
  
• China tests new long-range missile in Tibet, near India border (01-Aug-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Soviet Union, USSR,
Ronald Reagan, Mikhail Gorbachev,
Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty, INF, Donald Trump,
Barack Obama, Konstantin Kosachev, Leonid Slutsky, Kingston Reif,
Stephen Nagy

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Oct-18 World View -- European Commission rebukes Italy, after blatant budget rules violation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• European Commission rebukes Italy, after blatant budget rules violation
  
• Greece's elderly still face possible pension cuts in January
  

****
**** European Commission rebukes Italy, after blatant budget rules violation
****


A horse-drawn carriage passes a branch of Banca Monte dei Paschi bank in Rome.

It's like writing a letter to your bank and saying that you'll
be making only half your mortgage payments for three years,
and that they should understand because you need the money. Your
bank would have to reject your statement forcefully.

On Monday, Italy's Economy Minister Giovanni Tria sent
a letter to the European Commission (EC), clearly saying that
Italy intended to violate EC budget rules from 2019-22:

<QUOTE>"As regards the path of the structural balance, the
Italian Government is aware of having chosen a budgetary policy
approach that is not in line with the application rules of the
Stability and Growth Pact. It was a difficult but necessary
decision ally of the persistent delay in recovering pre-crisis GDP
levels and the dramatic economic conditions in which the most
disadvantaged strata of the Italian society are found. The
Government also intends to implement the qualifying parts of the
economic and social program on which it has obtained the
confidence of the Italian Parliament. The Update Note of the
Economic and Financial Document, and the attached Parliament
Report, clarify that the Government plans to deviate from the
structural adjustment decrease in 2019 but does not intend to
further expand the structural deficit in the following two years
and undertakes to return the structural balance towards the
medium-term objective starting from 2022. If it were to return to
pre-crisis level before the forecast, the Government intends to
anticipate the return path."<END QUOTE>

This is a direct, and possibly unprecedented challenge by an EU member
state to the European Commission, and it required an unprecedented
response. The EC firmly rejected Italy's proposed 2019 budget, and
demanded a compliant budget within three weeks.

Readers may recall that when Italy held nationwide elections in March,
the elections failed to produce a majority party. Two particularly
bitter rivals were the left-wing Five Star Movement (M5S) that got 32%
of the vote, and the right-wing La Lega (The League) that got 17% of
the vote.

Incredibly, these two parties got together and formed a governing
coalition. They're far apart on many issues, but they do share
similar attitudes on three issues: a nationalistic anti-euro attitude,
a xenophobic anti-immigrant attitude, and a complete lack of fiscal
discipline. Much to everyone's surprise, they formed a governing
coalition based on these three principles.

This new governing coalition announced a list of policy proposals,
including a completely
delusional list of economic proposals.

Italian debt stands at around &euro;2.3 trillion ($2.7 trillion), or
133% of gross domestic product (GDP), the worst in Europe. The new
government does have a way of reducing the debt: spend a lot more
money, and drastically reduce taxes. (As I wrote at the time, I wish
I could tell you that this is a joke, but it isn't.)

Specifically, the government would like to do the following
right away:

• Sharply cut taxes to a flat tax of 15-20%.
  
• Give everyone a guaranteed free basic income of &euro;780 ($922)
  per month.
  
• Increase pension benefits by substantially reducing the retirement
  age.

So now the time has come for Italy to submit a 2019 budget to the EC
to fulfill these delusional campaign promises, and the budget far
exceeds EC rules, as well as Italy's previous commitment to fiscal
discipline.

What we can say at this point with certainty is that, with the EU
already buried in problems from Brexit and immigrants, Italy's budget
is sure to create an additional huge new fracas.

It seems pretty clear that Italy's government is out of control
fiscally, and that they will be unable to stop themselves from going
into more and more debt. But as the saying goes: If something can't
go on forever, then it won't.

According to an analysis by Silvia Ardagna of Goldman Sachs,
Italy will not become fiscally responsible until some event
forces them to be:

<QUOTE>"Financial market participants understand there is
value in correctly pricing not just the 'end game,' but also the
path to that 'end game' and the risks around it.

From this perspective, our view is that market tensions would need
to intensify in order to exert sufficient pressure on the Italian
political system to trigger a change in the policy path and the
political rhetoric around it.

On that basis — and even if Italy does ultimately remain part of
the Euro area — the market situation may need to get worse before
it gets better."<END QUOTE>

Some people are speculating that the event will be "Italexit," with
Italy leaving the euro currency and possibly the European Union.
However, prime minister Giuseppe Conte said, "I can assure that this
executive will not accompany this country, Italy, out of Europe. We
feel very comfortable, we feel at home in Europe and we think that the
euro is our currency and will be our currency, the currency of my kid,
he’s 11 years old, and the currency of my grandchildren."

Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said that "this is an unprecedented
situation, and the decision should not be surprising to anyone as the
Italian government’s draft budget represents a clear and intentional
deviation from the commitments made by Italy last July." Italy's Economic Ministry (PDF) and European Commission and Business Insider and Politico (EU)

****
**** Greece's elderly still face possible pension cuts in January
****

Greece's elderly may not face pension cuts in January after all. The
planned pension cuts are part of the austerity program that the EU and
the ECB imposed on Greece in return for years of bailouts to prevent
the country from becoming totally bankrupt. The pension cuts are
necessary to increase the sustainability of Greece's social security
system, but apparently most members of the European Commission are
willing to put this measure on hold. The final decision on whether to
cancel the pension cuts will be made on December 3, but in fact the
pension cuts may be made anyway, since Germany opposes canceling them.

I tell this little story to remind readers that even though Greece's
financial crisis has been out of the news for a while, it has not been
resolved, and there could be a renewal of the crisis at any time.

Greece had to be bailed out in 2010 because the country was
essentially bankrupt. Greece was borrowing and spending way beyond
its capability to repay throughout the 2000s decade. According to one
analyst,

<QUOTE>"The history of [Greece's National Statistical Service
(NSSG)] reveals that its chief officer (general secretary) was
replaced whenever a new party was elected to power. The main
objective behind this practice was to control the flow of
information; in this respect, the personal or political allegiance
of the chief officer was the most crucial factor for the
appointment."<END QUOTE>

We can also say with certainty that if Italy goes on the spending
binge, the country will be deep trouble. I don't know why it's so
hard for people to understand that it's fun to borrow and spend money,
but it's extremely painful when you have to pay it back.

In order to fund its spending binge, Italy will have to borrow money,
and Italy will do that by selling government bonds. Moody's last week
downgraded Italy's bond rating to Baa3, which is the lowest possible
rating that they can have without becoming "junk bonds." In fact, a
lot of people breathed a sigh of relief because the downgrade was
anticipated, and it was feared that it would be to junk status.

Each time a bond's rating goes down, the value of the bond goes down,
and the yield goes up. The yield is the interest rate that the
government has to pay to investors who buy the bonds. So during
Greece's financial crisis, the yield on Greek bonds went to 5%, to 7%,
to 20% to 30% to 40%, and even more. Holders of Greek bonds
eventually had to take a 75% "haircut" -- which means that they lost
75% of their entire investments.

This hasn't happened to Italy yet. Italy's ten-year bond yields have
gone from 2% at the beginning of the year to about 3.5% recently. If
Italy's spending binge continues, then the yields will increase to 5%,
7%, 10%, and so forth, and Italy's debt will become unsustainable.

Even worse, many other banks in Europe have purchased Italian bonds.
About 20% of Italy's government bonds are held in other eurozone
countries. If yields go up and values go down, then these banks will
also be in trouble. That's called "contagion," Dear Reader, and the
fear of contagion will cause the European Commission to be very
critical of Italy's 2019 budget.

"It is tempting to try to cure debt with more debt, but at some point
the debt [becomes] too heavy and at the end of the day, you end up
having no freedom at all," Valdis Dombrovskis, vice president of the
European Commission, said during a press conference on Tuesday.
Kathimerini (Athens) and Kathimerini and CNN and CNBC

Related Articles

• European markets in turmoil over Italy's unbridled spending proposals (23-May-2018)
  
  
• Bank run worsens Italy's banking crisis (28-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Germany's government blocks debt relief for Greece, despite new austerity measures (23-May-2017)
  
  
• Italy bank crisis more dangerous to EU than Brexit (05-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Greece's debt crisis spreads to Italy and Spain (24-Mar-2012)
  
  
• IMF and ECB walk out of negotiations with Greece (12-Jun-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Commission, Italy, Giovanni Tria,
Five-Star Movement, M5S, Luigi Di Maio,
La Lega, The (Northern) League, Matteo Salvini.
Giuseppe Conte, Greece,
Silvia Ardagna, Italexit, Pierre Moscovici

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Oct-18 World View -- Pakistan's 'desperate' Imran Khan attends Saudi investment summit amid Khashoggi crisis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan's 'desperate' Imran Khan attends Saudi investment summit amid Khashoggi crisis
  
• Imran Khan considers the options in asking the IMF for a loan
  

****
**** Pakistan's 'desperate' Imran Khan attends Saudi investment summit amid Khashoggi crisis
****


Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan meets Saudi King Salman (MBS's father) on Tuesday in Riyadh (AFP)

The bizarre story of the gruesome death of Saudi-born Washington Post
journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Arabian embassy in Istanbul,
Turkey, seems to be settling down in the last couple of days, largely
because Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has so far refused to
accuse Saudi's crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) of being
personally involved. Now, MBS is saying that it was "a heinous crime
that cannot be justified" and that "those behind this crime will be
held accountable... in the end justice will prevail." It may be that
Erdogan is holding back some evidence for use as leverage against MBS
at some future time.

MBS has been holding a three-day conference called the Future
Investment Initiative, whose purpose is to invite investments from
countries around the world. Thanks to the Khashoggi scandal, many
world leaders are boycotting the conference, although many of those
have sent high-level representatives in their place. Reports are that
the conference is going well for MBS, despite the boycott.

However, one national leader did attend the conference: Pakistan's new
prime minister Imran Khan.

Khan described Khashoggi's death as “sad beyond belief”, and indicated
that he did not consider credible the latest official Saudi account of
what happened:

<QUOTE>"What happened in Turkey was just shocking. What
should I say? It shocked all of us. The Saudi government will
have to come up with an answer... We wait for whatever the Saudi
explanation is. We hope there is an explanation that satisfies
people and those responsible are punished."<END QUOTE>

However, Khan has described his situation as "desperate," and that he
is is attending the conference because of Pakistan's deep debt crisis:

<QUOTE>"The reason I feel I have to avail myself of this
opportunity [to speak to the Saudi leadership] is because in a
country of 210 million people right now we have the worst debt
crisis in our history.

Unless we get loans from friendly countries or the IMF [the
International Monetary Fund] we actually won’t have in another two
or three months enough foreign exchange to service our debts or to
pay for our imports. So we’re desperate at the
moment."<END QUOTE>

Khan had previously visited Saudi Arabia in July to try to get aid,
but came away empty handed. However, Khashoggi's death has changed
things, and the Saudis are "desperate" as well, needing support from
someone like Imran Khan. So Khan was rewarded for attending. MBS is
providing $6 billion in aid to Pakistan, $3 billion in foreign
currency support and another $3 billion in loans.

Another issue is Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen. In the past, Pakistan
has refused to provide military support for the war, but now it may
turn out that Khan had to promise something to MBS in return for the
$6 billion in aid. So it's interesting that Khashoggi's murder has
provided the opportunity for all sorts of extortion and blackmail
among the countries in the Mideast and Asia. BBC and
CNN and Middle East Eye

****
**** Imran Khan considers the options in asking the IMF for a loan
****

When Imran Khan took office as prime minister in August, Pakistan had
only enough foreign reserves to pay for imports for two months. Since
then, Pakistan's "all-weather friend" China has loaned Pakistan enough
additional money so that they can pay for imports into December. Now
the $6 billion in aid from Saudi Arabia should give Khan several
months' more breathing room.

Khan, a Pashtun born in 1952, is extremely popular and charismatic.
He was one of Pakistan's greatest cricket players of all time. In the
1990s, he was voted as the "Sexiest Man of The Year" by the Australia
Magazine Oz. He's anti-American, has promised to distance Pakistan
from the United States. He's been particularly critical of previous
governments for borrowing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
and having to accept their austerity rules in return.

Now that Khan is prime minister, all his previous silver-tongued
promises are ignored. Pakistan has received over a dozen IMF programs
in the last 30 years, and now he says he's going to ask for another
one. Pakistan formally applied for IMF assistance early in October.

Pakistan is about $90 billion in debt, with $19 of that owed to China,
mainly because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China
needs CPEC as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in order to
have a cheap way to transfer commercial and military goods and people
between China and the Indian Ocean.

As usual, the terms are nothing but a debt trap for Pakistan. China
lends the money to Pakistan. Pakistan must use to purchase goods and
services from China, and to pay the salaries of the workers on the
project, almost all of whom will be Chinese. So, as usual, Pakistan
will have to repay the loan twice, once to pay for Chinese goods,
services and salaries, and once to repay the loan.

So there's a lot of bad dealing going on here. Saudi Arabia is
providing $6 billion in aid to Pakistan, but a lot of that money will
go, in one way or another, to China in debt repayments.

China would like Pakistan to borrow from the IMF. Since most of the
IMF's money comes from the US taxpayer, tht means that the US taxpayer
will be paying for the CPEC project.

That's why US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said that the
administration will oppose any IMF loan to Pakistan, and said,
"There's no rationale for IMF tax dollars — and associated with that,
American dollars that are part of the IMF funding — for those to go to
bail out Chinese bondholders or China itself."

China would love having the US pay for Pakistan's debts. According to
China's foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said, "As a member of the
IMF, China supports the organization in making an objective evaluation
of Pakistan based on professionalism and earnestly helping it properly
address the current difficulty."

State Dept. spokesman Heather Nauert said:

<QUOTE>"Pakistan has formally requested assistance from the
International Monetary Fund. In all cases, we examine that closely
from all angles of it, including Pakistan’s debt position, in
evaluating any type of loan program. ... I think part of the
reason that Pakistan found itself in this situation is Chinese
debt and the fact that there is debt that governments have
incurred that they maybe thought wouldn’t be so tough to bail
themselves out of, but has become increasingly
tough."<END QUOTE>

IMF director Christine Lagarde has said that any IMF loan to Pakistan
would need to determine the debt sustainability of the country by
having "a complete understanding and absolute transparency about the
nature, size and terms" of its debt, both public and private, and
including the details about the relationship between Pakistan and
China.

However, all the information about Pakistan's Chinese debt is secret,
and even the State Bank of Pakistan is not privy to it. China has
already signaled that the secrecy should not be breached. China
welcomes IMF loans to Pakistan, but they must not affect economic
cooperation between China and Pakistan. Dawn (Pakistan) and Daily O (India) and CNBC (31-Jul) and Dawn and Committee For The Abolition Of Illegitimate Debt and International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Related Articles:

• Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC (07-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan's anti-American 'hope and change' candidate Imran Khan runs again (30-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan's Imran Khan blockades supplies to Nato in Afghanistan (26-Nov-2013)
  
  
• Pakistan protesters end their blockade of the Nato supply route (28-Feb-2014)
  
  
• Pakistan's army called to quell massive anti-government protest (20-Aug-2014)
  
  
• Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is (15-Aug-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Imran Khan,
Saudi Arabia, King Salman, Mohammed bin Salman, MBS,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Jamal Khashoggi, Yemen,
China, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Christine Lagarde,
Mike Pompeo, Heather Nauert

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 26-Oct-18 World View -- Mike Pence's China 'containment' speech signals more contentious US-China relations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Post-war speeches by Churchill and Kennan defined 'containment' policy for Soviet Union
  
• Mike Pence's China 'containment' speech signals more contentious US-China relations
  

****
**** Post-war speeches by Churchill and Kennan defined 'containment' policy for Soviet Union
****


President Harry Truman and Winston Churchill in Fulton, Missouri, in 1946

On October 4, VP Mike Pence gave a speech on US policy towards China.
Since then, the speech has taken on a great deal of importance, and
it's being compared to speeches by Western officials after World War
II to "contain" the Soviet Union.

On March 3, 1946, Winston Churchill gave a speech he called "The
Sinews of Peace." It contained the following well-remembered
excerpts:

<QUOTE>"From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the
Adriatic, an iron curtain has descended across the
Continent. Behind that line lie all the capitals of the ancient
states of Central and Eastern Europe. Warsaw, Berlin, Prague,
Vienna, Budapest, Belgrade, Bucharest and Sofia, all these famous
cities and the populations around them lie in what I must call the
Soviet sphere, and all are subject in one form or another, not
only to Soviet influence but to a very high and, in many cases,
increasing measure of control from Moscow. Athens alone-Greece
with its immortal glories-is free to decide its future at an
election under British, American and French observation. The
Russian-dominated Polish Government has been encouraged to make
enormous and wrongful inroads upon Germany, and mass expulsions of
millions of Germans on a scale grievous and undreamed-of are now
taking place. The Communist parties, which were very small in all
these Eastern States of Europe, have been raised to pre-eminence
and power far beyond their numbers and are seeking everywhere to
obtain totalitarian control. Police governments are prevailing in
nearly every case, and so far, except in Czechoslovakia, there is
no true democracy. ...

However, in a great number of countries, far from the Russian
frontiers and throughout the world, Communist fifth columns are
established and work in complete unity and absolute obedience to
the directions they receive from the Communist centre. Except in
the British Commonwealth and in the United States where Communism
is in its infancy, the Communist parties or fifth columns
constitute a growing challenge and peril to Christian
civilisation. These are sombre facts for anyone to have to recite
on the morrow of a victory gained by so much splendid comradeship
in arms and in the cause of freedom and democracy; but we should
be most unwise not to face them squarely while time
remains."<END QUOTE>

On February 22, 1946, America's ambassador to Moscow George Kennan
sent a "Long Telegram," 8,000 words long, to the US State Department,
describing his recommended policy towards the Soviet Union. The text
was made public in a 1947 article in Foreign Affairs magazine as "The
Sources of Soviet Conduct," by "X" (no relation to me).

Kennan described the ideology of the Soviet Union, and by changing a
few words, the same description would apply to China today. He
described the history of Marxist ideology and how it led to the
Bolshevik revolution. "[T]he capitalist system of production is a
nefarious one which inevitable leads to the exploitation of the
working class by the capital-owning class; ... capitalism contains the
seeds of its own destruction; ... imperialism, the final phase of
capitalism, leads directly to war and revolution." However:

<QUOTE>"Now it must be noted that through all the years of
preparation for revolution, the attention of these men, as indeed
of Marx himself, had been centered less on the future form which
Socialism would take than on the necessary overthrow of rival
power which, in their view, had to precede the introduction of
Socialism. Their views, therefore, on the positive program to be
put into effect, once power was attained, were for the most part
nebulous, visionary and impractical, beyond the nationalization of
industry and the expropriation of large private capital holdings
there was no agreed program. ...

Let it be stressed again that subjectively these men probably did
not seek absolutism for its own sake. They doubtless believed --
and found it easy to believe -- that they alone knew what was good
for society and that they would accomplish that good once their
power was secure and unchallengeable. But in seeking that security
of their own rule they were prepared to recognize no restrictions,
either of God or man, on the character of their methods. And until
such time as that security might be achieved, they placed far down
on their scale of operational priorities the comforts and
happiness of the peoples entrusted to their care.

As things stand today, the rulers can no longer dream of parting
with these organs of suppression. The quest for absolute power,
pursued now for nearly three decades with a ruthlessness
unparalleled (in scope at least) in modern times, has again
produced internally, as it did externally, its own reaction. The
excesses of the police apparatus have fanned the potential
opposition to the regime into something far greater and more
dangerous than it could have been before those excesses
began."<END QUOTE>

So Kennan is saying that once these people have won the civil war and
created their Socialist paradises, they turn into cruel, ruthless
despots that retain power by any means possible.

Kennan's description is so well written, and sounds so familiar,
because applies to so many countries today. Of course we can see it
in Venezuela, but we've also seen it in non-Socialist Paradise
countries, including Cameroon, Burundi, Iran and Cambodia. This is a
statement of the finding of Generational Dynamics that whenever any
country experiences an ethnic civil war which is also a generational
crisis war, then in the aftermath, the winning ethnic group oppresses
the losing ethnic group, using torture, beatings, rape and slaughter
to keep the other ethnic group in line. It also applies to all the
other Communist countries that were formed during and after World War
II.

Kennan, writing in 1946, says that the Soviet leaders are still
struggling to complete the 1917 Revolution:

<QUOTE>"As things stand today, the rulers can no longer dream
of parting with these organs of suppression. The quest for
absolute power, pursued now for nearly three decades with a
ruthlessness unparalleled (in scope at least) in modern times, has
again produced internally, as it did externally, its own
reaction. The excesses of the police apparatus have fanned the
potential opposition to the regime into something far greater and
more dangerous than it could have been before those excesses
began.

But least of all can the rulers dispense with the fiction by which
the maintenance of dictatorial power has been defended. For this
fiction has been canonized in Soviet philosophy by the excesses
already committed in its name; and it is now anchored in the
Soviet structure of thought by bonds far greater than those of
mere ideology."<END QUOTE>

Kennan says that this dictatorial power, with all its oppression and
atrocities, is so ingrained in the Kremlin's ideology that they
believe they have to use force to spread the same ideology to other
countries. In 1946, this observation was already to clear to many
people, as described in Churchill's "Iron Curtain" speech.

In response, Kennan describes his policy of containment:

<QUOTE>"In these circumstances it is clear that the main
element of any United States policy toward the Soviet Union must
be that of long-term, patient but firm and vigilant containment of
Russian expansive tendencies. ...

In the light of the above, it will be clearly seen that the Soviet
pressure against the free institutions of the western world is
something that can be contained by the adroit and vigilant
application of counter-force at a series of constantly shifting
geographical and political points, corresponding to the shifts and
maneuvers of Soviet policy, but which cannot be charmed or talked
out of existence."<END QUOTE>

Kennan went on to describe details of how the Soviet Union could be
contained. Kennan's "Long Telegraph" had a huge impact on Washington
policy, and was debated for years. Winston Churchill (5-March-1946) and History Guide - George Kennan (22-Feb-1946)

****
**** Mike Pence's China 'containment' speech signals more contentious US-China relations
****

VP Mike Pence's October 4 speech gives a scathing criticism of China's
behavior. Pence's speech is being described as a "containment"
speech, like those of Churchill and Kennan, but directed at China.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's important to
remember that there's a big difference. In 1946, WW II had just
ended, and the US, Russia and China were all war-weary, in a
generational Recovery era, with absolutely no desire to fight another
war. There was a war in Korea in which all three countries fought,
but that war was fought so half-heartedly that it ended in a
ceasefire, with no conclusion. Technically, the Korean War has never
ended.

But today, we're all in a generation Crisis era, with xenophobia and
nationalism at a peak in all three countries. If there were a new
Korean war today -- and it's a definite possibility -- then it would
also certainly spread to a wider war and a world war.

Pence says that Donald Trump's administration has adopted "a new
approach to China, ... grounded in fairness, reciprocity, and respect
for sovereignty."

Pence reminded the Chinese that America has always supported China,
during the so-called "Century of Humiliation" and World War II, and in
the decades after World War II, when "America ensured that China
became a charter member of the United Nations, and a great shaper of
the post-war world." America has opened its markets to China, and
"American universities began training a new generation of Chinese
engineers, business leaders, scholars, and officials."

Pence said that "After the fall of the Soviet Union, we assumed that a
free China was inevitable." As I've written many times, China's
reaction to the fall of the collapse of the Soviet Communist Party was
not to emulate it, but to become paranoid about it, doubling down on
violence and atrocities, for fear that the same thing would happen to
the Chinese Communist Party. So today, says Pence, "The dream of
freedom remains distant for the Chinese people"

Pence went through a list of Chinese policies that have harmed the
Chinese people.

• Trade."And the Chinese Communist Party has also
  used an arsenal of policies inconsistent with free and fair trade,
  including tariffs, quotas, currency manipulation, forced technology
  transfer, intellectual property theft, and industrial subsidies that
  are handed out like candy to foreign investment. These policies have
  built Beijing’s manufacturing base, at the expense of its competitors
  -– especially the United States of America."
  
  
• Theft. "To win the commanding heights of the 21st
  century economy, Beijing has directed its bureaucrats and businesses
  to obtain American intellectual property –- the foundation of our
  economic leadership -– by any means necessary. Beijing now requires
  many American businesses to hand over their trade secrets as the cost
  of doing business in China. It also coordinates and sponsors the
  acquisition of American firms to gain ownership of their
  creations. Worst of all, Chinese security agencies have masterminded
  the wholesale theft of American technology –- including cutting-edge
  military blueprints. And using that stolen technology, the Chinese
  Communist Party is turning plowshares into swords on a massive
  scale."
  
  
• Militarization. "Beijing is also using its power
  like never before. Chinese ships routinely patrol around the Senkaku
  Islands, which are administered by Japan. And while China’s leader
  stood in the Rose Garden at the White House in 2015 and said that his
  country had, and I quote, “no intention to militarize” the South China
  Sea, today, Beijing has deployed advanced anti-ship and anti-air
  missiles atop an archipelago of military bases constructed on
  artificial islands."
  
  
• Aggression. "China’s aggression was on display this
  week, when a Chinese naval vessel came within 45 yards of the USS
  Decatur as it conducted freedom-of-navigation operations in the South
  China Sea, forcing our ship to quickly maneuver to avoid
  collision. Despite such reckless harassment, the United States Navy
  will continue to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law
  allows and our national interests demand. We will not be intimidated
  and we will not stand down."
  
  
• Christianity. "Last month, Beijing shut down one of
  China’s largest underground churches. Across the country, authorities
  are tearing down crosses, burning bibles, and imprisoning
  believers. And Beijing has now reached a deal with the Vatican that
  gives the avowedly atheist Communist Party a direct role in appointing
  Catholic bishops. For China’s Christians, these are desperate
  times."
  
  
• Buddhism,Islam. "Beijing is also cracking down on
  Buddhism. Over the past decade, more than 150 Tibetan Buddhist monks
  have lit themselves on fire to protest China’s repression of their
  beliefs and their culture. And in Xinjiang, the Communist Party has
  imprisoned as many as one million Muslim Uyghurs in government camps
  where they endure around-the-clock brainwashing. Survivors of the
  camps have described their experiences as a deliberate attempt by
  Beijing to strangle Uyghur culture and stamp out the Muslim
  faith."
  
  
• Debt Trap. "In fact, China uses so-called “debt
  diplomacy” to expand its influence. Today, that country is offering
  hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure loans to governments
  from Asia to Africa to Europe and even Latin America. Yet the terms of
  those loans are opaque at best, and the benefits invariably flow
  overwhelmingly to Beijing."

Pence went on to describe American's responses to these Chinese
actions, including strengthening the military and implementing
reciprocal tariffs.

In the view of many Chinese, Pence's speech indicates that the United
States has finally dropped its hypocritical mask and shown its true
colors, which is to contain China’s rise just like it did to the
Soviet Union at the beginning of the Cold War, and that the United
States and China are on an irreversible course of conflict in the
coming years. White House and Diplomat

Related Articles

• President Harry Truman and the Truman Doctrine (19-Sep-2006)
  
• Defense Sec'y Robert Gates repudiates the Truman Doctrine (11-Jun-2011)
  
  
• President Trump reinstates the 'Truman Doctrine' (09-Apr-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Harry Truman, Winston Churchill,
Soviet Union, Iron Curtain, George Kennan, containment,
Mike Pence, China

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Oct-18 World View -- China, facing Trump's trade challenge, appears to mend ties with Japan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China, facing Trump's trade challenge, appears to mend ties with Japan
  
• China and Japan's 'marriage of convenience' limited by bitter history
  

****
**** China, facing Trump's trade challenge, appears to mend ties with Japan
****


Shinzo Abe and Xi Jinping (Kyodo News)

There have been numerous reports in the last three months that, with
the Trump administration imposing reciprocal tariffs on hundreds of
billions of dollars' worth of Chinese exports to the US, China has
been scrambling to find new markets for its exports.

One of those new markets appears to be Japan. As Japan's prime
minister Shinzo Abe visited China's capital city Beijing on Friday,
the two countries signed several deals, and declare a new era of
cooperation between the two countries.

China’s President Xi Jinping on Friday rolled out the red carpet for
Abe, and said:

<QUOTE>"Our relationship has encountered a lot of obstacles.
It was not a smooth ride. But with our joint effort, the
relationship has become more normalized. A healthy relationship
between China and Japan serves the basic interests of both
countries."<END QUOTE>

Abe responded by saying that he hoped his trip would elevate the
China-Japan relationship from competition to cooperation. "China and
Japan are neighbors and partners, and we will not be a threat to each
other."

One of the deals was a currency swap deal. Under the deal, the
People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Japan will be able to exchange
up to 3.4 trillion yen for 200 billion yuan (about $29 billion) and
vice versa over the next three years – a design that will help to
ensure financial stability and facilitate financial ties, and allow
commercial trade involving the two currencies without needing to go
through the US dollar as an intermediary.

The sides also signed about 50 agreements on boosting cooperation in
third-party countries, while companies agreed more than 500 business
deals. The third-party country deals are said to be cooperative
infrastructure projects related to China's Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI).

The two sides also agreed to open a hotline “as soon as possible” to
prevent accidental clashes at sea and in the air in the East China
Sea, where Chinese ships have been harassing Japanese ships near the
Senkaku Islands. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Japan Today and South China Morning Post and Deutsche Welle

****
**** China and Japan's 'marriage of convenience' limited by bitter history
****

China and Japan have a long, bitter history going back centuries. In
recent times, the Sino-Japanese war (1894-95) was a major humiliation
for China, which was forced to cede Taiwan to Japan as a colony.

Even more recently, in December 1937 Imperial Japanese troops in China
perpetrated the Nanjing (Nanking) Massacre. This event, along with
the Japanese army's use of Korean and Chinese women as "comfort women"
during World War II. Japanese troops did not leave China until they
were defeated by the Americans at the end of World War II.

During the last ten years, Chinese ships have been constantly
harrassing Japanese ships around the Senkaku Islands. These islands,
in the East China Sea, are governed by Japan. Like many places
belonging to other countries across Asia, China is threatening to
annex them by force. However, this would trigger a war with the US
under a Japan-US mutual defense treaty.

China has its own concerns about Japan. Under Shinzo Abe, Japan has
all but abandoned its defense-only policy adopted after World War II,
and been strengthening its military for the first time in decades,
which China sees as a threat.

The hatred that many Chinese people viscerally feel for the Japanese
runs deep. There have been frequent anti-Japan protests in China.
One of the biggest occurred in 2012, when more than 70,000 Chinese
staged rallies Saturday in at least 28 cities to demand that Japan
surrender the Senkaku islands to China. The largest demonstration, in
Qingdao, Shandong Province, attracted as many as 30,000 people and
evolved into rioting as protestors torched as many as 10 Japanese
enterprises, including a Panasonic factory. The protests and violence
appeared to have the tacit approval of China's government.

The current rapprochement between China and Japan may be a marriage of
convenience, but the core issues separating the countries runs deep.
Generational Dynamics predicts that Japan and China will fight a new
generational crisis war as part of the Clash of Civilizations world
war that will pit the US, India, Russia and Iran versus China,
Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. Deutsche Welle and National Interest and BBC and Diplomat

Related Articles

• Chinese commemorate the 1937 Massacre at Nanking (Nanjing) (18-Dec-2007)
  
  
• Japan bolsters defenses as 1,000 Chinese fishing boats approach (18-Sep-2012)
  
  
• Huge Anti-Japan protests spread across China, turn violent (16-Sep-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Shinzo Abe, China, Xi Jinping,
Senkaku Islands, Sino-Japanese war, Taiwan,
Nanjing Massacre, Nanking Massacre

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 28-Oct-18 World View -- Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Remembering previous Syria 'peace conferences' and 'peace plans'
  
• Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib
  

****
**** Remembering previous Syria 'peace conferences' and 'peace plans'
****


Leaders holding hands: Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Emmanuel Macron (Reuters)

How many "peace conferences" and "peace plans" have there been since
2011, when Syria's president Bashar al-Assad launched his genocidal
war against his historic Sunni enemies, including the Palestinians in
refugee camps, targeting women and children in marketplaces, schools
and hospitals using barrel bombs, missiles, chlorine gas, and Sarin
gas, exterminating them as if they were termites?

The first ones began in 2012 with the UN Security Council appointing a
series of UN envoys to Syria. The first was former U.N.
secretary-general Kofi Annan who came up with a six-point peace plan
that I described as "farcical" on the day it was announce. ( "22-Mar-12 World View -- U.N. Security Council adopts farcical 'peace plan' for Syria"
)

The first of the six points says that Syria commits to work with Kofi
Annan “in an inclusive Syrian-led political process to address the
legitimate aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people.” That's
just an example of how silly it was, as if it had been written by
third graders.

Al-Assad actually agreed to the plan, and then ignored it. He made a
complete fool of Annan. The so-called "peace plan" actually made
things worse in Syria, because it provided cover for al-Assad to
continue his slaughter, while claiming to be negotiating peace.
Similar things happened with all three UN envoys -- Kofi Annan,
Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura. They were all useful idiots,
played by al-Assad as complete fools, humiliating themselves and the
United Nations. As I wrote in "3-Aug-12 World View -- Kofi Annan resigns in failure as Syria envoy"
, Annan was bitter and angry when he resigned, blaming
his decision on what he described as Syrian government intransigence,
on increasing militancy by Syrian rebels and on finger-pointing and
name-calling by members of the United Nations Security Council.

By the way, two weeks ago Staffan de Mistura announced that he would
step down. He blamed Bashar al-Assad for blocking the peace process.
Totally laughable.

It was during the tenure of the envoy Lakhdar Brahimi that I learned
what the term "proximity talks" means. The way this works is that the
two sides don't actually talk to each other -- if they did, they'd
probably end up killing each other. Instead, the two sides remain
separated in different rooms, and each side only talks to Brahimi, who
goes back and forth between the rooms. That's how the farcical "peace
talks" worked.

Then there were the completely fraudulent so-called "Astana talks,"
which were led by Russia and took place in Astana, Kazakhstan, or
sometimes in Sochi.

The Astana talks split western Syria into four "de-escalation zones"
or "ceasefire zones." Russia promised there would be no fighting in
any of these zones. In the case of three of them, al-Assad and Russia
violated the agreement, and turned each of them into a full-scale
genocide zone.

There's only one de-escalation zone remaining: Idlib
Guardian (London) and Reuters (17-Oct)


****
**** Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib
****

On Saturday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan led peace talks
in Istanbul, Turkey, with leaders of Russia, France and Germany. In
addition to Erdogan, Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Germany's
Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's President Emmanuel Macron were
president.

The peace conference was considered a diplomatic victory for Erdogan,
because he believes that he can get more leverage against Russia and
Syria if the Europeans support him.

Syria was not present, because Bashar al-Assad is never present at
these peace conferences, since he always ignores them anyway.

The U.S. was not present at the peace conference. According to one
analyst, the Europeans are furious at Donald Trump for pulling out of
the Iran nuclear deal and for the tariff policy, and didn't want the
peace conference to turn into a pure Trump-bashing conference, so they
didn't invite the US.

The purpose was to make the ceasefire in Idlib permanent. There are
over three million people in Idlib, and half of them are displaced
people who fled al-Assad's violence in the other three de-escalation
zones. Of the three million civilians, there are an estimated 60,000
or so anti-Assad rebels in Idlib, including both "moderate" rebels and
jihadists in al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly the
al-Nusra Front.

Bashar al-Assad has made it clear that he plans an assault on Idlib,
and is willing to kill three million people to do so, since he
considers them all the be "terrorists." If there is an assault on
Idlib, there will be a massive humanitarian disaster, and hundreds of
thousands or millions of people will pour across the border into
Turkey, which is already hosting 3.5 million Syrian refugees. Some of
the Idlib refugees will undoubtedly continue on into Europe, resulting
in a new European migrant crisis.

That's why Merkel and Macron are at the meeting, calling for a
political solution that makes the Idlib ceasefire permanent. And
that's why the meeting is considered a diplomatic victory for Erdogan,
since he thinks that Merkel and Macron will pressure Putin into
agreeing to a permanent ceasefire.

On September 17, Erdogan and Putin met in Sochi, and they reached an
agreement to stabilize Idlib. A buffer zone would be set up, with the
Syrian army on one side, and the rest of Idlib on the other. Turkey
would guarantee that all rebel weapons would be removed from the
buffer zone, and that Turkey would patrol the buffer zone and
guarantee that it is weapons-free.

Since then, there are been sporadic violations of the buffer zone on
both sides, but Turkey claims that it has succeeded in clearing the
buffer zone. So the purpose of Saturday's peace conference was to
agree to make the ceasefire permanent.

No such agreement was reached, of course. A secondary objective, to
form a constitutional committee for Syria, was rejected by al-Assad.
In fact, the meeting was a failure except for a few laughable
expressions of hope and change.

At the press conference after the meeting, Macron said, "We should be
vigilant that the ceasefire in Syria will be long lasting." Merkel
said, "A political solution is necessary besides military
solutions. We will not tolerate the use of chemical weapons in Syria."
Haha.

We've seen this movie several times before. Al-Assad and Putin commit
to some kind of ceasefire, with absolutely no intention to keep the
commitment, and use the negotiations as cover to launch a new
genocidal offensive. Sooner or later, something will happen that
al-Assad can use as an excuse, and the assault will begin.

This time it will be different, however. In Aleppo, Ghouta and Daara,
there were a few hundred thousand people, and many of them were
permitted to escape to Idlib.

In Idlib, there are over three million people, and they have no place
to escape to. As I wrote at length earlier this month,
this situation has all the makings of a
traditional tragedy in the classical Greek sense. There are three
major protagonists, al-Assad, Putin and Erdogan, and they're headed
for a massive, tragic, calamitous ending that cannot be prevented by
them or anybody else. Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Deutsche Welle

Related Articles:

• U.N. Security Council adopts farcical 'peace plan' for Syria (22-Mar-2012)
  
  
• Lakhdar Brahimi to replace Kofi Annan as Syria peace envoy (18-Aug-2012)
  
  
• Farcical Syria peace process 'proximity talks' to begin this week in Geneva (25-Jan-2016)
  
  
• Russian-led Syria peace talks collapse in Astana, Kazakhstan (06-Jul-2017)
  
  
• As October 25 deadline approaches, Syria's Idlib is set up for a classic Greek tragedy (05-Oct-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Germany, Angela Merkel,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, France, Emmanuel Macron,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Kofi Annan, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura, Idlib,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, chlorine gas, Sarin gas,
Aleppo, Ghouta, Daara

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 29-Oct-18 World View -- Islamic Jihad agrees to Egypt-sponsored ceasefire in Gaza after night of terror

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Islamic Jihad agrees to Egypt-sponsored ceasefire in Gaza after night of terror
  
• Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) accepts the Egyptian-mediated ceasefire
  

****
**** Islamic Jihad agrees to Egypt-sponsored ceasefire in Gaza after night of terror
****


Smoke rises from an Israeli bombardment in Gaza on Saturday (AP)

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) said that it's agreed to a ceasefire
with Israel mediated by Egypt after a Friday night of terror.

During Friday night, 34 rockets were fired into Israel from Gaza,
according to the Israeli military. It's believed that the rockets
were launched by Islamic Jihad, a terror group in Gaza that is a
separate entity from Hamas. Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile defense
system is said to have intercepted 13 of the 34 rockets. No Israelis
were reported injured by the rocket attacks.

In response, Israeli air force missile attacks struck 80 targets
across Gaza on Saturday morning, including Hamas's new headquarters
for General Security Services. Gaza officials say that nine
Palestinians were wounded in one of the Israeli attacks and a hospital
was badly damaged.

Gaza is under siege by both Israel and Egypt. Hamas, the nominally
ruling government in Gaza, has disavowed the rocket activity and
blames PIJ for sabotaging attempts to broker a long-term truce that
would lift the siege. However, Israel holds Hamas responsible for all
rocket attacks on Israel. Al Jazeera and Asharq Al-Awsat (Saudi Arabia) and CNN

****
**** Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) accepts the Egyptian-mediated ceasefire
****

PIJ official Khaled al-Batsh said that the rocket attacks
were made in revenge for Israeli attacks on Gazans:

<QUOTE>"The occupation could not have been allowed to kill
four peaceful demonstrators in Gaza and two in the occupied West
Bank for taking part in peaceful popular marches without
responding to the crimes."<END QUOTE>

However, an Israeli army spokesman said that Iran and Syria were
behind the rocket attacks: "Islamic Jihad fired dozens of missiles at
Israel under the guidance of Iran and Syria. These incidents show the
dangers threatening the State of Israel."

PIJ was actually formed in the late 1970s, and was inspired by Iran's
Islamic Revolution. PIJ and Hamas are both Sunni Muslim terror
organizations, but PIJ has always had a much closer relationship with
Iran than Hamas has had.

Israeli security officials believe that PIJ is supplied with
money and weapons from Iran, and also takes orders from Iran.
These officials believe that Iran was influenced by two events
in the last week to order PIJ to make the rocket attacks.

One event was a surprise visit by Israel's prime minister Benjamin
Netanyahu to Oman, meeting Oman's leader Sultan Qaboos. This meeting
came shortly after a similar meeting by Palestinian Authority
president Mahmoud Abbas. Sultan Qaboos' objective was to initiate a
new dialog between the two parties, which might have shut Iran and
Hamas out.

The second event was word that Hamas and Egypt have finally agreed to
the terms to restore calm in Gaza, more or less under the same
parameters put in place after 2014 summer war between Israel and Hamas
in Gaza.

PIJ has its own reasons to launch the rocket attacks -- unlike Hamas,
it opposes any peace negotiations with Israel.

However, under pressure from Hamas and Egypt, PIJ agreed
to the ceasefire, and there were no more rocket or missile
attacks on Saturday or Sunday. According to a PIJ spokesman:

<QUOTE>"After contacts between the Islamic Jihad leadership
and the brothers in Egypt it was agreed that a comprehensive
ceasefire will begin immediately. The Islamic Jihad will abide by
the ceasefire if the occupation (Israel) does the
same."<END QUOTE>

Israel has threatened further attacks on Iranian targets Syria if the
rocket attacks resume. Ynet (Israel) and Akhbrna News (Cairo)

Related Articles:

• Israel backs down from full-scale attack on Gaza after family escapes rocket (20-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Israel prepares for war on two fronts, Gaza and Syria (15-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Israel will close crossing point to Gaza in retaliation for incendiary kites (10-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now (01-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Hamas, Egypt, Israel,
Palestinian Islamic Jihad, PIJ, Islamic Jihad,
Oman, Sultan Qaboos, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Khaled al-Batsh

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Oct-18 World View -- Thailand and Thaksin Shinawatra prepare for new national elections

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thailand and Thaksin Shinawatra prepare for new national elections
  
• The shadow of Thaksin Shinawatra
  
• Brief generational history of Thailand
  

****
**** Thailand and Thaksin Shinawatra prepare for new national elections
****


Supporters hold a picture of Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister Yingluck in Bangkok on Aug 5, 2017. (AFP)

Thailand's prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has announced that a new
general election will be held in 2019, possibly on February 24.
Prayuth himself is prime minister because he was appointed by a
military junta that overthrew the elected government of Yingluck
Shinawatra in 2014 in a coup. Under domestic and international
pressure, Prayuth has promised five times to schedule a general
election, but has always failed to do so.

It's possible that he won't keep his promise this time either. After
the 2014 coup, he promised elections in early 2015, then in 2016, and
then in November 2018. Now it's 2019 - maybe.

The reason that Prayuth may again kill election plans is because he
knows that his side will almost certainly lose. The vast majority of
the population are the dark-skinned lower class indigenous people,
also called "Thai-Thai" and "red shirts," comprising about 3/4 of the
population, living mostly in the northern and northeastern regions of
Thailand, but who come to Bangkok mostly to work in menial jobs
serving the Thai-Chinese.

The Thai-Chinese, also called "yellow shirts," are the light-skinned
descendants of a wave of Chinese workers that poured into the country
to find jobs in the 1930s. They comprise 1/4 of the population, live
mostly around Bangkok, and are extremely contemptuous of the
indigenous Thai-Thai, whom they consider to be inferior. Prayuth
hates the Thai-Thai people, and knows that they'll win a general
election, which is why he'll probably do all he can to avoid one.
Straits Times and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, 29-Dec-2017) and Channel News Asia

****
**** The shadow of Thaksin Shinawatra
****

The Pheu Thai Party (Puea Thai Party), originally called the Thai Rak
Thai (TRT) party, is the party of the indigenous "red shirt" people,
led by Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin was prime minister from 2001-2006,
when he was ousted by a military coup. He then engineered a series of
election victories for prime ministers from hie Pheu Thai party, but
in each case the army used some artifice to overthrow the elected
prime minister.

In one case, the elected prime minister Samak Sundaravej was thrown
out of office by a court because he previously had a cooking show on
tv, and that was a conflict of interest. ( "Thailand government collapses, ending crippling riots from class war"
.)

In the most recent case, Thaksin's sister Yingluck Shinawatra won the
2011 election as the first female prime minister, with her election
campaign scripted by her brother Thaksin, who at that time was living
in exile in Dubai. ( "Thailand's Yingluck promises to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes"
)

However, Yingluck's use of femininity during her time in office didn't
seem to work with the military junta that overthrew her in a coup in
2014. She was charged with corruption and convicted in 2017, but fled
the country in August just before she was scheduled to be sentenced
and jailed. Many observers believe that the army purposely looked the
other way when she fled the country, fearing that if she were jailed
there would be popular riots by her supporters. She was sentenced
in absentia to five years in jail.

Thaksin and Yingluck are still extremely popular in Thailand, and they
still yield a great deal of influence in the Pheu Thai party.
According to one analyst, "You have to understand how powerful the
Thaksin ‘brand’ is among his supporters. For his working class
supporters he is still seen as a hero, who delivered to those people
who voted for him what he promised, until he was unjustly overthrown
by the ‘elite’."

Thaksin has been traveling to London, Hong Kong and Singapore,
remaining out of reach of the Thai authorities. He recently gave an
interview in which he said that all the "pro-democracy parties,"
including his own Pheu Thai, should unite behind a single candidate.
"It's time for [voters] to cast their ballots ... to dump the
dictatorship of Thailand."

After giving this interview, a member of the ruling military junta in
Thailand, urged the Election Commission to look into whether Thaksin
exercises control over the affairs of the Pheu Thai party from
abroad. If a probe takes place and finds that Thaksin still retains
influence, it could lead to dissolution of the party for several
years. Bangkok Post and Nikkei and South China Morning Post and Al Jazeera

****
**** Brief generational history of Thailand
****

Part of Thailand's history was made famous by Anna Leonowens, who came
from London to Siam (as it was known then) to be the governess and
teacher of the many children of King Mongkut (Rama IV) in the 1860s.
In 1895, she wrote memoirs that were turned into a film, "Anna and the
King of Siam" in 1946, and into the 1952 Rodgers and Hammerstein
Broadway musical, "The King and I."

If you have a few minutes, then watch the YouTube video of "The
March of the Siamese Children," from the 1956 film, "The King and I."
It depicts Anna's first meeting with the children.

The play depicts a troubled king trying to lead a small country
surrounded by large enemies, and willing to use invasion, torture and
other atrocities.

King Rama had fought a generational crisis war in the early 1830s when
he had invaded Laos and Cambodia, but ended up losing to a Vietnamese
army.

Siam's next generational crisis war occurred in what is now southern
Thailand. For centuries, Siam's kings had felt that the Muslims in
southern Siam were a major threat to the security of the country,
mainly because resistance and rebellion against Thai government rule
were so strong among the Muslim population, and in fact the
southern Muslims had revolted during the 1830s crisis war.

By the late 1800s this threat had been felt to be critical, and in
1902 King Rama V invaded and annexed the Malay kingdom of Patani,
consisting of the four provinces of Satun, Yala, Pattani and
Narathiwat. (Note: The kingdom is spelled "Patani," while the
province is spelled "Pattani.") In 1909, an Anglo-Siamese Agreement
established the present border between Thailand and Malaysia.

During the next few decades, Siam (which became Thailand in 1939) was
faced with the problem of trying to assimilate the southern Muslim
population into what is essentially a Buddhist country. During the
generational Awakening era that followed, the military coup of 1932
overthrew the absolute monarchy in Siam and replaced it with
constitutional monarchy. This was a representative form of government
that promised a high degree of political participation of the
Malay-Muslims in the South. However, as World War II (an Awakening
era war for Thailand) approached, the country became more
Thai-nationalistic, and the country adopted a policy of forced
assimilation towards the Muslims, which had little success,
as resistance and rebellion have continued since then.

The 1930s also saw a large influx of migrants from China, coming to
the country to work. Over the decades, they were able to displace the
indigenous people in positions of power in government, and in control
of businesses. This formed an ethnic fault line between the
indigenous Thai-Thai majority and the elite Thai-Chinese minority.

The next generational crisis war was the Cambodian "killing fields"
war, 1975-79, in which Pol Pot's communist Khmer Rouge government,
backed by China, killed almost ten million people in a massive
genocide. The Cambodian war spilled over into Thailand in the form of
a communist rebellion that had begun in the 1960s. King Bhumibol
(Rama IX) became an essential figure in the fight against the
communists, although his role became more controversial in the savage
anti-leftist coup of 1976, in which dozens of students were brutally
killed by the security forces and royal-backed militias, and thousands
forced to flee to seek sanctuary with the Communist Party.

The Cambodian "killing fields" civil war took place on Thailand's
doorstep, though not on Thai soil. Still, it caused a split along the
Thai-Thai versus Thai-Chinese fault line that continues to the present
time. Today, Thailand is in a new generational Awakening/Unraveling
era, and we're seeing a repeat of what happened in the 1930s.

During the generational Awakening era of the 1930s, the military
coup of 1932 overthrew the absolute monarchy in Siam and replaced it
with constitutional monarchy that gave some power to the southern
Muslims, only to have it taken away a few years later.

During the current era, the 1997 constitution guaranteed free
elections for everyone, including the indigenous Thai-Thai,
and now that's being taken away by a military junta.

History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. Yale: Thailand’s Response to the Cambodian Genocide and Cornell: History and Politics of the Muslims in Thailand (PDF) and
Communist Party of Thailand

Related Articles

• Thailand's former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra flees to Dubai (26-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Thailand's Yingluck Shinawatra wins decisively (04-Jul-2011)
  
  
• Thailand's Yingluck promises to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes (01-Jul-2011)
  
  
• Thailand government collapses, ending crippling riots from class war (03-Dec-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Thaksin Shinawatra,
Yingluck Shinawatra, Pheu Thai Party, Puea Thai Party, Thai Rak Thai, TRT,
Prayuth Chan-ocha, Samak Sundaravej,
Anna Leonowens, Siam, King Mongkut, Rama IV,
Anna and the King of Siam, Rodgers and Hammerstein, The King and I,
Rama V, Malaysia, Kingdom of Patani, Satun, Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat,
China, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Killing fields, King Bhumibol, Rama IX

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John J. Xenakis
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 31-Oct-18 World View -- Sri Lanka constitutional crisis represents opportunity for China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sri Lanka constitutional crisis represents opportunity for China
  
• Mahinda Rajapaksa's return to power will be welcomed by China
  

****
**** Sri Lanka constitutional crisis represents opportunity for China
****


Sri Lankan police and special forces stand guard next to a poster of the newly appointed prime minister, Mahinda Rajapaksa (Reuters)

Mahinda Rajapaksa, a close ally of China and former president of Sri
Lanka until he was defeated in a 2015 election, may be making a
comeback as prime minister.

Last week, in a vitriolic political dispute, Sri Lanka's current
president decided to fire the current prime minister, and appoint
Rajapaksa to be the new prime minister.

Note:
- President is Maithripala Sirisena,
Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)
- Fired prime minister is Ranil Wickremesinghe,
United National Party (UNP)
- Appointed prime minister is Mahinda Rajapaksa

The fired prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, has refused to leave
the prime minister's residence, and hundreds of supporters gathered
outside.

Meanwhile, Rajapaksa has moved into the prime minister's office,
and is starting to appoint a cabinet. So there are currently
two prime ministers.

The president, Maithripala Sirisena, claims that he has the right to
fire the prime minister and appoint a new one. His opponents say that
it's unconstitutional, and that only the parliament can fire a prime
minister, and so the parliament should be called into session to
decide who is prime minister.

Sirisena responded by announcing that the Parliament will remain
closed until mid-November. This will give him to time to make sure
that the members of parliament are aligned behind his decision.
However, the speaker of the parliament said: "We need to solve this
through parliament. If we try to solve this in the streets it will
lead to a major bloodbath."

Wickremesinghe posted a defiant statement on Monday:

<QUOTE>"As the Prime Minister of Sri Lanka, I call upon all
parties to assemble in parliament to regain our country's peace,
stability, and to vehemently defend the fundamental rights of our
citizens. My expectation is that the Speaker [of Parliament] will
exercise his constitutional rights and summon parliament within
the next 2 days.

We ask the Honorable Speaker to summon Parliament urgently- only
through the parliamentary system can we can save our country from
this unfortunate and dangerous situation. Let us forget our
political differences and rally to re-establish democracy in our
country."<END QUOTE>

The reference to a "dangerous situation" is made because there's
already been violence, including one person killed.

On Saturday, a pro-Wickremesinghe minister was confronted by a crowd
of supporters of the president. The minister's bodyguard opened fire
on the crowd, killing one person and wounding two others. This
followed the storming of two state-owned television stations by mobs
of Rajapaksa supporters. Guardian (London) and NPR and Guardian

****
**** Mahinda Rajapaksa's return to power will be welcomed by China
****

President Sirisena and fired prime minister Wickremesinghe have had a
number of disagreements, especially because Wickremesinghe is
"pro-India," while Sirisena is "pro-China."

In a bizarre manifestation of this difference, in mid-October Sirisena
publicly accused India's intelligence services of plotting his
assassination. However, he spoke to India's prime minister Narendra
Modi on the phone the next day. Afterwards, Sirisena stated that the
mischievous and malafide reports were utterly baseless and false, and
seemed intended to create misunderstanding between the two leaders as
well as damage the cordial relations between the two friendly
neighbors.

Rajapaksa became president of Sri Lanka in 2005, but was defeated in
the presidential election by Sirisena in 2015. The two men had
maintained cordial relations, so in that sense it wasn't a surprise
that Sirisena decided to bring Rajapaksa back to power by appointing
him prime minister after firing Wickremesinghe.

However, there's a great deal of hostility and violence in Sri Lanka
related to the 30-year civil war between the governing ethnic
Sinhalese, who are Buddhist, and the minority ethnic Tamils, who are
Muslim. This was actually the first generational crisis war to reach
a climax in this century. This civil war climaxed in May 2009.
As in the case of all generational crisis
wars, especially when they're civil wars, the war was extremely brutal
and blood, with atrocities committed on both sides. Mahinda Rajapaksa
was president during the last years of that war, and he's been
personally charged with war crimes.

There have been sporadic surges in violence since then. Since 2014,
there have been numerous hate crime attacks by Buddhists on Muslims,
including arson at Muslim-owned businesses and petrol-bomb attacks on
mosques. The attacks are being blamed on a radical nationalist
Buddhist organization, Bodu Bala Sena (BBS - Forces of Buddhist
Power).

Another important legacy of Rajapaksa's presidency is that he made Sri
Lanka the poster child and the first country to become victim to
China's "Debt Trap Diplomacy." The Seaport of Hambantota, a Chinese
infrastructure project in Sri Lanka, was funded with a loan from
China, with almost all the labor performed by Chinese workers, and all
parts and services imported from China, so that the loan money never
benefited Sri Lanka's industries. Rajapaksa agreed to China's demands
for exhorbitant loan repayment terms. Sri Lanka was unable to repay
the loan, and in December of last year, Sri Lanka was forced to give
the seaport away to China. So now Sri Lanka has a large seaport owned
by China, and a large Chinese enclave with hundreds of Chinese
families, with no benefit to itself and to its own people.

What's more important is that the seaport is at a strategic location
in the Indian Ocean, and is one of China's "String of Pearls"
seaports, and is considered a major security threat to India.
Rajapaksa's return to power means that China will play a dominant role
in Sri Lanka's politics and development. India Today and Foreign Policy and Diplomat

Related Articles:

• Sri Lanka declares state of emergency after Buddhist-Muslim violence (07-Mar-2018)
  
  
• China takes control of strategic Hambantota seaport in Sri Lanka, raising concerns in India (11-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Sri Lanka targets radical nationalist Buddhists in Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) (12-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Report: Sri Lankan government repeatedly torturing and raping Tamils (14-Jan-2016)
  
  
• Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war (17-May-2009)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sri Lanka, Maithripala Sirisena,
Sri Lanka Freedom Party, SLFP,
Ranil Wickremesinghe, United National Party, UNP,
Mahinda Rajapaksa, China, India, Hambantota port,
Bodu Bala Sena, Forces of Buddhist Power, BBS

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan court reaffirms Mohammed's covenant with Christianity, acquits Asia Bibi of blasphemy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan Supreme Court acquits Asia Bibi of blasphemy, triggering widespread riots
  
• Pakistan Supreme Court defends Mohammed's covenant with Christianity
  

****
**** Pakistan Supreme Court acquits Asia Bibi of blasphemy, triggering widespread riots
****


Asia Bibi

Pakistan's Supreme Court on Wednesday reversed the conviction of Asia
Bibi, a Christian woman with five children who was convicted of
blasphemy and sentenced to death by hanging in 2010, and has remained
on death row since then. The court's scathing decision not only
acquitted her, but also accused the two women who accused her of
blasphemy, as well as the prosecutors who took the case to trial, of
their own acts of blasphemy against Asia's religion, Christianity.

Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), the political party of the loony
Barelvi sect of hardline Sunni Islam has called for nationwide riots,
and the assassination of the three Supreme Court judges, who are being
given additional protection. Widespread protests erupted on Wednesday
in cities across Pakistan, including Lahore and Karachi, shutting down
roads.

It was feared that the government would bow to the Barelvi/TLP demands
and ignore the court's decision. That hasn't happened so far, and the
new prime minister Imran Khan has endorsed the court verdict, and
condemned the protesters:

<QUOTE>"These protesters are not ‘protecting’ Islam; they are
just trying to fill their vote banks. They are enemies of the
state that are doing politics in the name of the religion. People
cannot get to their jobs. A laborer, who had to get to his work
place and would be unable to feed his children because of
this. ...

Do not force the government to take action. Do not clash with the
state or hurt the country only for political gains."<END QUOTE>

However, there are still concerns that the Barelvi/TLP terrorists will
prevent Asia Bibi from leaving the country, now that she's free and
several countries have offered her asylum.

The blasphemy charge occurred when a bunch of women started arguing
with each other. Several women refused to drink out of the same
cup as Asia because she's a Christian. Five days later, they
decided to charge her with blasphemy. She was prosecuted and
has been in jail until today.

Salman Taseer, the governor of Punjab province in Pakistan, called for
the release of Asia Bibi, and was shot 28 times in broad daylight in
an open marketplace on January 4, 2011. The killer was his bodyguard,
Mumtaz Qadri. The motive, as described by Qadri, was to punish Taseer
for objecting to Pakistan's blasphemy laws, and for calling for the
release of Asia Bibi. Qadri was not just a national hero, but he was
a Barelvi hero, and it's that execution that led to the rise of TLP.
Since Qadri justified his murder of Taseer with a phony blasphemy
charge, the TLP political movement is based almost entirely on phony
blasphemy charges. Qadri was showered with roses and treated as a hero
in 2011 after brutally
murdering Taseer. Qadri was finally executed last year, but not
before he became a national hero for killing Taseer over a phony
blasphemy charge.

So Asia Bibi has been a political foil for the loony Barelvi sect for
eight years. If she is successful in leaving the country, at least
that part of saga may be over. BBC and Deutsche Welle and Dawn (Pakistan, 13-Oct)


****
**** Pakistan Supreme Court defends Mohammed's covenant with Christianity
****

The court's opinion is very long, 56 pages. Each statement or
conclusion is supported by a verse from the Koran. It's in roughly
three parts.

The first part is the history of blasphemy laws in Pakistan.
The second part describes the evidence against Asia Bibi.

The third part is a scathing criticism of the women who accused Asia
of blasphemy, and of the prosecutors who tried the case, repeated
lying and ignoring exculpatory evidence. Furthermore, the court
accuses the women and the prosecutors and even the trial courts of
violating Mohammed's covenant with Christians and Christianity, and of
being guilty themselves of blasphemy, for having blasphemed the
religion of Asia Bibi, which was Christianity.

The following are extracts from the latter parts of the opinion.
According to the judgment, the Asia Bibi's prosecutors repeatedly
lied, and so the prosecutors were in violation of the Koran:

<QUOTE>"20. The glaring and stark contradictions in the
evidence produced by the prosecution in respect of every factual
aspect of this case, noticed by me above, lead to an irresistible
and unfortunate impression that all those concerned in the case
with providing evidence and conducting investigation had taken
upon themselves not to speak the truth or at least not to divulge
the whole truth. It is equally disturbing to note that the courts
below had also, conveniently or otherwise, failed to advert to
such contradictions and some downright falsehood. All concerned
would have certainly done better if they had paid heed to what
Almighty Allah has ordained in the Holy Qur’an:

[i]“O you who have believed, be persistently standing firm for
Allah, witnesses in justice, and do not let the hatred of a people
prevent you from being just. Be just, that is nearer to
righteousness. And fear Allah; indeed, Allah is acquainted with
what you do.” (Surah Al-Ma’idah: verse 8)

“So follow not [personal] inclination, lest you not be just. And
if you distort [your testimony] or refuse [to give it], then
indeed Allah is ever, with what you do, acquainted.” (Surah
An-Nisa: verse 135)"<END QUOTE>[/i]

The court was particularly suspicious that Asia was only accused of
blasphemy five days after the alleged incident occurred, and that
Asia's accusers themselves had insulted her (Christian) religion.
They say that the Koran demands every Muslim believe in all the holy
prophets, including Jesus Christ, and that therefore Asia's accusers
were themselves blasphemers:

<QUOTE>"23. The statements made by [prosecutors] before the
trial court revealed that the alleged blasphemy had been committed
by the Christian appellant after her Muslim co-workers had
insulted the appellant’s religion and had injured her religious
sensibilities only because she believed in and was a follower of
Jesus Christ. According to the Holy Qur’an a Muslim’s faith is not
complete till he believes in all the Holy Prophets and Messengers
of Almighty Allah including Jesus Christ (Isa son of Maryam)
(Peace Be Upon Him) and all the revealed Holy Books of Almighty
Allah including the Holy Bible. From that perspective insulting
the appellant’s religion by her Muslim co-workers was no less
blasphemous. Almighty Allah, the Creator of mankind, knew how a
human being whose religion and religious sensibilities are
insulted is likely to snap and retort and that is why it was
ordained in the Holy Qur’an that

[i]“And do not insult those they invoke other than Allah, lest
they insult Allah in enmity without knowledge. Thus We have made
pleasing to every community their deeds. Then to their Lord is
their return, and He will inform them about what they used to do.”
(Surah Al-An’am: verse 108)

The Muslim co-workers of the appellant had violated the command of
Almighty Allah by insulting the Deity believed in and the religion
followed by the appellant and, even if the prosecution’s
allegations against the appellant were to be accepted as correct,
the stated reaction to the same by the appellant was not different
from that warned about by Almighty Allah."<END QUOTE>[/i]

The court went on at length to describe how Mohammed was committed to
protecting Christians and Christianity, and so Asia's accusers were
actually violating one of Mohammed's covenants:

<QUOTE>"24. In view of the glaring contradictions in the
evidence produced by the prosecution it has appeared to me to be
equally plausible that due to the quarrel taking place between the
appellant and her Muslim coworkers at the spot without any
offending word having been uttered by the appellant the quarrel
was reported by the Muslim ladies to others who then, after
deliberating over the matter for five long days, had decided to go
after the appellant with a false allegation regarding commission
of blasphemy. If that were so then the Muslim witnesses in this
case had violated a covenant of the Holy Prophet Muhammad (Peace
Be Upon Him) with those professing the Christian faith. [One
covenant is with the] Monks of Mount Sinai. It is reported that
in or around the year 628 A.D. a delegation from St. Catherine’s
Monastery, the world’s oldest monastery located at the foot of
Mount Sinai in Egypt, came to the Holy Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be
Upon Him), requested for his protection and he responded by
granting them a charter of rights. That charter, also known as The
Promise to St. Catherine, was translated from Arabic to English
language by Dr. A. Zahoor and Dr. Z. Haq as follows:

[i]"This is a message from Muhammad ibn Abdullah, as a covenant to
those who adopt Christianity, near and far, we are with them.

Verily I, the servants, the helpers, and my followers defend them,
because Christians are my citizens; and by God! I hold out against
anything that displeases them. No compulsion is to be on
them. Neither are their judges to be removed from their jobs nor
their monks from their monasteries. No one is to destroy a house
of their religion, to damage it, or to carry anything from it to
the Muslims' houses. Should anyone take any of these, he would
spoil God's covenant and disobey His Prophet. Verily, they are my
allies and have my secure charter against all that they hate.

No one is to force them to travel or to oblige them to fight. The
Muslims are to fight for them. If a female Christian is married to
a Muslim, it is not to take place without her approval. She is not
to be prevented from visiting her church to pray. Their churches
are to be respected. They are neither to be prevented from
repairing them nor the sacredness of their covenants. No one of
the nation (Muslims) is to disobey the covenant till the Last Day
(end of the world)."

The promise made was eternal and universal and was not limited to
St. Catherine alone. The rights conferred by the charter are
inalienable and the Holy Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him) had
declared that Christians, all of them, were his allies and he
equated ill treatment of Christians with violating God’s
covenant. It is noticeable that the charter imposed no conditions
on Christians for enjoying its privileges and it was enough that
they were Christians. They were not required to alter their
beliefs, they did not have to make any payments and they did not
have any obligations. The charter was of rights without any duties
and it clearly protected the right to property, freedom of
religion, freedom of work, and security of person."<END QUOTE>[/i]

The court reaches its final conclusion, completely acquitting
Asia Bibi:

<QUOTE>"[25.] Blasphemy is a serious offence but the insult
of the appellant’s religion and religious sensibilities by the
complainant party and then mixing truth with falsehood in the name
of the Holy Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him) was also not
short of being blasphemous. It is ironical that in the Arabic
language the appellant’s name Asia means ‘sinful’ but in the
circumstances of the present case she appears to be a person, in
the words of Shakespeare’s King Leare, “more sinned against than
sinning”.

26. For what has been discussed above a conclusion is inescapable
and irresistible that the prosecution had failed to prove its case
against the appellant beyond reasonable doubt. This appeal is,
therefore, allowed, the conviction and sentence of the appellant
recorded and upheld by the courts below are set aside and she is
acquitted of the charge by extending the benefit of doubt to
her. She shall be released from the jail forthwith if not required
to be detained in connection with any other case."<END QUOTE>

Although not mentioned in the opinion, the implication is that TLP is
also guilty of blasphemy. Pakistan Supreme Court (PDF) and Christianity Today and BBC

Related Articles

[*] Pakistan's interior minister shot by member of loony anti-blasphemy Barelvi sect (07-May-2018)

[*] History of blasphemy laws in UK, Ireland and Pakistan (20-Sep-2012)

[*] Pakistan's crisis worsens as senior politician is assassinated (05-Jan-2011)

[*] Pakistan government totally capitulates to hardline Islamist TLYRAP Barelvi sect mob (29-Nov-2017)

[*] Pakistan unexpectedly executes murderer of liberal politician Salman Taseer (01-Mar-2016)
[/list]



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Imran Khan, Asia Bibi,
Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan, TLP, Barelvi sect,
Salman Taseer, Mumtaz Qadri

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Nov-18 World View -- EU splits on Iran sanctions after assassination attempt in Denmark

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Trump's Iran sanctions, announced in May, scheduled for Sunday
  
• EU splits on Iran sanctions after assassination attempt in Denmark
  

****
**** Trump's Iran sanctions, announced in May, scheduled for Sunday
****


Iranian newspaper critical of Trump (AFP)

In May, the Trump administration withdrew America's position in the
Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). At
that time, Trump announced that he was restoring wide-ranging
sanctions on Iran's economy. He Trump gave oil buyers 180 days to
wind down purchases of Iranian oil, and that the final deadline for
oil purchases would be Sunday, November 4. From May to September,
Iran's oil exports fell by about a third.

The Trump administration has the power to enforce the sanctions
because of the way that the international banking systems are
interlocked. Iran can sell oil to another country, but in order to
get paid, payment sooner or later has to pass through an entity that
can be sanctioned by the US for violating the Iran sanctions, or can
be cut off from the US financial system altogether.

The European Union, which has expressed fury at the Trump
administration for taking these actions, has been trying to set up a
"special purpose vehicle" (SPV) that European countries can use to pay
Iran without having to pass through a financial entity that the US can
punish. The original plan was to have the SPV in place by Monday, but
implementing it has turned out to be too complex so far. Furthermore,
EU officials are said to want to avoid a "direct confrontation" with
the Trump administration over Iran before the midterm elections on
Tuesday.

The US has reportedly agreed to grant a waiver to India to permit
Indian oil companies to continue importing Iranian oil for four more
months, until March. The terms of the waiver are not fully clear, but
India will be required to cut its imports by a third. India will make
45% of the purchase in its own rupee currency, which Iran can then use
to purchase rice, drugs and other products from India. The other 55%
of the payment will be made in euros, but this money will be held in
escrow in India banks, until the sanctions are lifted.

There are also reports that South Korea will be granted a waiver,
although the details are not known.

China and Japan are also seeking waivers, but have yet to receive
them. China is Iran's biggest oil customer, but because of the US
sanctions, China's biggest refiners have reportedly halted imports in
November until the US provides clarity. CNBC and India Times and CNBC and AFP

****
**** EU splits on Iran sanctions after assassination attempt in Denmark
****

When Trump withdrew from from the JCPOA in May, officials in Denmark
said they were shocked and surprised by Trump's decision. Former
foreign minister Holger K. Nielsen said:

<QUOTE>"It is catastrophic for him to do this. It could have
very serious consequences for the entire region. This was a way to
stay Iran's nuclear ambitions while giving more moderate forces
wind in their sails. It is now a concern that hardliners [in Iran]
will gain power. ...

That's why I am very, very concerned. If Iran resumes nuclear arms
development, I fear that Israel or the US will attack Iran, and
that will make the Iraq war look like a playground fight, because
this would be much worse."<END QUOTE>

That was then. This is now. And now, Denmark is asking the European
Union to impose additional sanctions on Iran.

On September 28, agents from Denmark's intelligence service (PET) saw
an individual taking photos outside the home in Copenhagen of the
leader of Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of al-Ahwaz
(ASMLA). ASMLA is a separatist group demanding a separate Arab state
in Iran's south-western Khuzestan Province, and is classified as a
terrorist group by Iran. A previous leader of ASMLA had been shot
dead in the Netherlands in November 2017, so PET was concerned that a
new assassination was being planned.

By total coincidence, a Swedish-registered black Volvo started moving
"suspiciously" outside the same house. When they tried to stop the
car, it sped off. This triggered a major manhunt, during which a
number of roads, bridges and ferry routes were shut down, including
connections between Denmark and Sweden. It turned out that the three
occupants of the Volvo had no relation to the ASMLA case, but that the
Volvo was a stolen car. They were only caught because of the ASMLA
case, making them "the world's most unlucky criminals," according to
the Copenhagen police.

The man taking the pictures was a Norwegian citizen of Iranian origin.
He was arrested in Norway on October 21, and extradited to Denmark. A
search of his home revealed numerous photos of the residences of
members of ASMLA.

Danish security officials have accused Iranian intelligence of
"planning an attack on Danish soil" against Iranian Arab dissidents.

Iran's Foreign Ministry denied the country had any role in the alleged
assassination plot. It said in a statement:

<QUOTE>"This is yet another scenario in a series of
conspiracies and plots by well-known Iran adversaries in an
attempt to jeopardize the good and progressive Iran-EU relations
at this very important and critical juncture."<END QUOTE>

Other Iranian official suggested sabotage by the US, Saudi Arabia or
Israel.

Some analysts claim that hardliners in Iran's intelligence services
may plan plots in Europe without the knowledge or control of Iran's
government. The rogue elements may even be trying to undermine
pragmatists in the Iranian government and good relations with the
Europe.

This is actually believable. As I describe in my book, Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East, Iran is one of the most corrupt
governments in the world. Iran's constitution has no checks and
balances, and the only way to get ahead in the government is through
bribery, extortion and corruption.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday that Washington
stood behind Denmark, a Nato ally.

<QUOTE>"We congratulate the government of #Denmark on its
arrest of an Iranian regime assassin. For nearly 40 years, Europe
has been the target of #Iran-sponsored terrorist attacks. We call
on our allies and partners to confront the full range of Iran’s
threats to peace and security. — Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo)
October 30, 2018"<END QUOTE>

This situation has thrown a huge stumbling block into the EU plans to
keep the JCPOA deal alive.

Iran has had a long record of pursuing opponents living abroad. Last
month, a series of raids in France and across Europe caught several
Iranian diplomats and sleeper cells planning terrorist operations.
( "4-Oct-18 World View -- Iran diplomats and sleeper cells arrested in France and across Europe"
)

There's a darkly ironic twist because Iran has strongly condemned
Saudi Arabia's killing of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul Turkey, and is
now accused of the same crime. Russia has used the nerve agent
Novichok to murder opponents living in Britain, but to my knowledge
they've issued no statement on Iran's alleged assassination attempt in
Copenhagen. The Local (Denmark, 9-May) and Deutsche Welle and The Local (Denmark, 29-Sep) and Washington Post

John J. Xenakis is author of the book, Iran's Struggle for
Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle
East, available on Amazon for $5 for the digital version or $7 for the paperback version.

Related Articles:

• Iran diplomats and sleeper cells arrested in France and across Europe (04-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran (30-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Iran's protesters blame bad economy on Supreme Leader, not on US sanctions (08-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Kurdish protesters attack Iran's embassy in Paris (17-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets (01-Aug-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA,
European Union, India, China, Japan,
Denmark, Holger K. Nielsen, PET, Norway, Sweden,
Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of al-Ahwaz, ASMLA,
Mike Pompeo, Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia, Turkey,
Russia, Novichok

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Nov-18 World View -- Australia moves migrant children from Nauru immigration camps to Australia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Australia moves migrant children from Nauru immigration camps to Australia
  
• Officials of Nauru infuriated by the contemptuous remarks by NGOs and politicians
  

****
**** Australia moves migrant children from Nauru immigration camps to Australia
****


Nauru immigration camp (AAP)

As a result of Federal Court orders, the Australian government is in
the process of moving all migrant children and their families from
Nauru immigration camps to Australian cities and towns. Fifty minors
and their families have come to Australia since October 15, for a
total of 135 people, and the remaining 35 minors are expected to be
transferred by Christmas.

Since August 3, 2013, when the government of Australia signed a
Memorandum of Understanding with the government of the Republic of
Nauru, refugees and asylum seekers arriving by boat without a visa
would be sent either to Nauru or to Manus Island in Papua New Guinea
(PNG), and would have "no chance" of being resettled in Australia as
refugees.

The decision to send "boat people" to the offshore islands has been
extremely controversial, both domestically and internationally, as
NGOs claim that the offshore islands are filthy and unsafe. Despite
the objections from activists, the policy has been extremely
successful in meeting its objectives. While there had previously been
tens of thousands of "boat people" per year arriving in Australia,
that number has been reduced to almost none, because refugees know
that they will be transferred to one of the offshore detention
centers. Australian officials claim that thousands of refugees' lives
have been saved, since they didn't attempt the risky boat trip with
human traffickers.

Activists have been using the courts and political pressure to force
the government to bring all refugees on the islands to be resettled in
Australia. Different government officials since 2013 have all
refused, saying that any such move would trigger a new flood of boat
people from Indonesia.

New Zealand has volunteered to take 150 refugees from Nauru and PNG
and resettle them. However, Home Secretary Peter Dutton has rejected
this offer because intelligence surveillance of smuggling operations
had detected “increased chatter” and “talk about elections and change
of government here," according to Dutton. "My judgment at the moment,
based on all of the advice available to me, is New Zealand would be a
pull factor at this point in time." The phrase "pull factor" refers
to a possible resurgence of boat people.

However, prime minister Scott Morrison said that he'd only consider
the New Zealand offer if legislation were passed that would prevent
the refugees from simply leaving New Zealand and coming back to
Australia.

Dutton says that the government remains committed to never resettle
the refugees in Australia, meaning that they will be deported to their
countries of origin after hospital treatment.

As a separate issue, the Obama administration in 2016 agreed to accept
up to 1,250 refugees from Nauru and Papua New Guinea. ( "6-Feb-17 World View -- Trump will honor Australia refugee deal, despite calling it 'worst deal ever'"
)

But after more than a year of screening, only 439 have found new homes
in the U.S., and dozens more have rejected the offer to resettle in
the United States. According to an NGO, these were mostly people who
had family in Australia and were concerned about being separated from
them permanently. Sydney Morning Herald and CBS News and Guardian (London) and Australia Government (3-Aug-2013)

****
**** Officials of Nauru infuriated by the contemptuous remarks by NGOs and politicians
****

Australia's prime minister Scott Morrison is warning NGOs and
politicians to stop being offensive to Nauru: "For those Nauruans who
live there, I do know that they get frankly a bit offended about the
way people talk about their home." Some NGOs have called it an "open
air prison."

According to Morrison, all the refugee children on Nauru are living
freely in the community just like the locals, and that the island
nation should not be disrespected:

<QUOTE>"That is the home of Nauruans - their children live
there, their families live there, they go to school there. We
should be tempered in our discussion about the nation of Nauru and
I think we should treat them with respect."<END QUOTE>

Former prime minister Tony Abbott said, "If you like living in the
tropics it's a very, very pleasant island."

According to the Australian government, 65 medical professionals,
including 33 mental health workers, are contracted to serve the
refugees on Nauru. According to Abbott, health services are better
there than in some parts of regional Australia.

However, these statements are in contrast to warnings by NGOs, the
United Nations, and the Australian Medical Association about the
appalling state of mental health among young refugees. It was these
claims that led to the court order to transfer children to Australia.

The issue is becoming increasingly explosive. A month ago, the
government of Nauru expelled the NGO Doctors Without Borders Borders
(Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF) which had been providing free mental
health care on Nauru. According to Nauru, MSF had originally
committed to providing health services for the entire population of
13,000 Nauruans, but instead focused on the refugees to further
political advocacy.

According to a statement put out by the Nauru government:

<QUOTE>"For too long, some sections of the media, refugee
advocates and some NGOs, have focused only on refugees in Nauru
and referred to Nauruans with disdain.

Refugees and locals live side by side as part of a homogenous
multicultural community. Calls for refugee children to be removed
from our country ignore the fact that Nauruan children grow up
here happy, healthy and educated within strong family
units. Refugee and asylum seeker children attend school and
activities with Nauruan children creating friendships and familial
bonds. It is disturbing and concerning that advocates and
organizations with political agendas prey on the vulnerable and
innocent to progress their agendas. ...

The statements made by MSF expose their ruse. It has become very
clear that they were never here to help Nauruans as was their
initial representation to Government to gain entry into
Nauru. They were here as political activists and it was
self-evident from the statement made by MSF representatives
referring to our sovereign nation, which is our beloved home, as
an “open air prison”. This was least expected from an organization
proclaiming to be an international humanitarian
organization. Nauru has opened its home to refugees awaiting
resettlement options. MSF must not define our home as a prison. It
speaks of the organization itself."<END QUOTE>

Nauru is a tiny island, 21 sq km, in the middle of the Pacific.
Inhabited for at least 3,000 years, originally by 12 Polynesian and
Micronesian tribes, its nearest neighbor, Kiribati, is 300 km of
empty ocean away. Nauru was a German colony in the 19th century and
an Australian protectorate in the 20th, until independence in 1969, at
which time it was one of the wealthiest countries in the world.

It had a massive supply of mineral phosphate. It was strip-mined by
mining companies, who packed it up and sold it overseas to be used as
fertilizer. Profits were placed into a trust which, at its peak, was
valued at $1 billion.

But Nauru became independent in 1969, and then the politicians took
over. A series of corrupt and incompetent governments wasted the
money, and left the country broke and barren by the 1980s, with an
unemployment rate of 70%. Since then, Australia has had to provide
aid to them.

The "boat people" situation has provided an extremely controversial
opportunity for both countries. For Nauru it provided a way to earn
extra millions of dollars by housing the refugees. For Australia, it
provided a place to send them. Australia AP and NPR and Naura Government and News.com (Australia) and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

• Australia sends refugees to Taiwan hospitals to keep them from Australian soil (24-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Australia to send 'boat people' to Papua New Guinea (21-Jul-2013)
  
  
• Australia will pay $100K each to asylum seekers in Manus Island immigration camp (15-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Papua New Guinea Supreme Court bombshell throws Australia's refugee policy into chaos (30-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Hundreds of Australian migrants to be resettled in the United States (11-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Trump will honor Australia refugee deal, despite calling it 'worst deal ever' (06-Feb-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, Nauru,
Papua New Guinea, PNG, Manus Island,
Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, New Zealand, Tony Abbott,
Doctors Without Borders, Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 4-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan government capitulates to Barelvi/TLP terrorists, doesn't free Asia Bibi

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan government capitulates to Barelvi/TLP terrorists, doesn't free Asia Bibi
  
• Questions about Mohammed's covenant with Christians and Christianity
  

****
**** Pakistan government capitulates to Barelvi/TLP terrorists, doesn't free Asia Bibi
****


Protester poster, 'Our demand - Hang Asia' (BBC)

Three days after Pakistan's Supreme Court freed Asia Bibi on blasphamy charges,
the government has
signed a 5-point agreement with the Barelvi sect / Tehreek-i-Labbaik
Pakistan (TLP) terrorists completely capitulating to the demands of
the terrorists. The TLP had mobilized massive protests across the
country, blocking roads in and out of big cities, and had threatened
to kill the three Supreme Court judges who had written the opinion
freeing Asia. Even Pakistani media and politicians were alarmed at
the extent of the government capitulation, and wondered whether the
government would survive.

<QUOTE>"1. A review petition has been filed in the Aasia Bibi
case, which is the right of the petitioners. The government will
raise no objections over the review petition.

2. Due process will be followed immediately to include the name of
Aasia Bibi in the Exit Control List (ECL).

3. Immediate legal action will be taken over the martyrdom of any
individuals during the protest campaign against the acquittal of
Aasia Bibi.

4. All those arrested on October 30 or afterwards in the protest
campaign against Aasia Bibi's acquittal will be released
immediately.

5. The TLP apologizes to anybody whose sentiments have been
unnecessarily hurt during the incident."<END QUOTE>

The reference to the "Exit Control List (ECL)" means that Asia's name
will be placed on the airline list that prevents someone from leaving
the country. The UK had sent a plane to take Asia to Europe, but it
had to leave without her. Asia is said to be in protective custody
somewhere.

A number of people had been arrested during the three days
of massive demonstration for destroying property and causing
violence, and the agreement says that they will be freed.

The only concession made by the terrorists is that they apologize
for hurting people's feelings.

A lot of people are now wondering whether Pakistan is
ruled by Islamist terrorists.
The new president Imran Khan initially said the following:

<QUOTE>"I say to these people: do not confront this state
... do not damage this country for your vote bank. If you do
this, I promise that the government will do its duty ... I ask you:
do not force the government to have to take action."<END QUOTE>

Khan did take action the next day -- total capitulation.

A lot of people congratulated the Supreme Court for its bravery in
acquitting Asia, but are now wondering why Asia was not acquitted by a
lower court long before this. One analyst answers as follows:

<QUOTE>"People ask a question as to why Sessions Court and
Lahore High Court convicted her for blasphemy and endorsed death
penalty. There are mainly two reasons. First, it is obvious that
death threats from the extremists who use Islam for their
political gains that might have forced the judges; you have see
the chaos by now, for which most judges were afraid of. Secondly,
the judges of lower courts were not that courageous to take the
risks of their lives for justice."<END QUOTE>

The following analogy might provide clarification. Imagine a
high-level official in America saying that marriage should only be
between a man and a woman. There would be screaming, hysterical mobs
harassing him in restaurants, threatening him, and demanding his
resignation. The same thing is happening in Pakistan today with
respect to blasphemy. The News (Pakistan) and Deutsche Welle and The Nation (Pakistan) and Dunya News (Pakistan)

****
**** Questions about Mohammed's covenant with Christians and Christianity
****

It's not surprising that the TLP were absolutely furious about the
Supreme Court ruling, which I described three days ago.
It was a scathing opinion not only that
Asia was not a blasphemer, but that her accusers and, by implication,
the Barelvi/TTP terrorists were themselves blasphemers, because they
had blasphemed Asia's Christian belief, which Mohammed had ordered all
Muslims to protect in a covenant.

Several people asked for more information about this covenant, and
whether it actually exists. The text of the covenant appears in the
court opinion that I quoted in my previous article, and is repeated
here:

<QUOTE>"This is a message from Muhammad ibn Abdullah, as a
covenant to those who adopt Christianity, near and far, we are
with them. Verily I, the servants, the helpers, and my followers
defend them, because Christians are my citizens; and by God! I
hold out against anything that displeases them. No compulsion is
to be on them. Neither are their judges to be removed from their
jobs nor their monks from their monasteries. No one is to destroy
a house of their religion, to damage it, or to carry anything from
it to the Muslims’ houses. Should anyone take any of these, he
would spoil God’s covenant and disobey His Prophet. Verily, they
are my allies and have my secure charter against all that they
hate. No one is to force them to travel or to oblige them to
fight. The Muslims are to fight for them. If a female Christian is
married to a Muslim, it is not to take place without her
approval. She is not to be prevented from visiting her church to
pray. Their churches are to be respected. They are neither to be
prevented from repairing them nor the sacredness of their
covenants. No one of the nation (Muslims) is to disobey the
covenant till the Last Day (end of the world)."<END QUOTE>

Possibly the best way to understand this covenant is to consider the
phrase, "Verily, they are my allies." The word "allies" is used in a
literal sense. The document was signed in 628 AD, when Mohammed was
in the middle of a generational crisis war between his own Hashim clan
versus the Umayyad clan in Mecca. Mohammed had nothing against the
Christians and had no reason to fight them, so he promised to protect
them.

Over the centuries, Muslim nations have continued to protect
Christians living among them, choosing to tax them rather than kill
them. So Mohammed's covenant has been followed for 1400 years.

Even today, Muslim jihadists are not killing Christians except for
public relations purposes in high profile terrorist attacks. The
number of Christians being killed is minuscule, compared to the number
of Muslims being killed. More Christians are being killed in traffic
accidents than by Muslim jihadists.

A lot of this was discussed in my book, Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East.

For the most part, it's Muslims who kill Muslims (Syria, Iraq, Yemen,
etc.), and it's Christians who kill Christians -- Nazis vs Russians,
French and British, Hutus vs Tutsis, Russians vs Ukrainians and
Georgians, etc. Most of the time, that's the way the world works.
Islamic Supreme Council

John J. Xenakis is author of the book, Iran's Struggle for
Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle
East, available on Amazon for $5 for the digital version or $7 for the paperback version.

Related Articles:

• Pakistan court reaffirms Mohammed's covenant with Christianity, acquits Asia Bibi of blasphemy (01-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is (15-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Pakistan's interior minister shot by member of loony anti-blasphemy Barelvi sect (07-May-2018)
  
  
• History of blasphemy laws in UK, Ireland and Pakistan (20-Sep-2012)
  
  
• Pakistan government totally capitulates to hardline Islamist TLYRAP Barelvi sect mob (29-Nov-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Imran Khan, Asia Bibi,
Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan, TLP, Barelvi sect,
Hashim clan, Umayyad clan

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe