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Generational Dynamics World View
Yuck! Mercury compounds!
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
(03-15-2021, 09:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:
  • So the question I have is: Why are the Democrats throwing Cuomo under
    the bus?  They could easily bat away Cuomo's accusers, just as they've
    batted away Clinton's accusers.  I'm 100% certain it has nothing to do
    with sexual abuse or nursing home deaths, since Democrats don't even
    care about those.  Most likely is that they want to replace Cuomo with
    an even loonier leftist.

The big news about Cuomo is that he killed thousands of people in nursing homes by requiring them to accept people who had covid, and who proceeded to infect the rest of the residents.  This has been known by conservatives for almost a year, but has only recently broken into the mainstream media.  It also applies to lots of other blue state governors, and it is the main reason why New York's covid death rate is so much higher than Florida's.

The sexual harassment "scandal" is just a way to bury Cuomo's - and other blue state governors' - mishandling of covid.
Reply
(03-26-2021, 09:41 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(03-15-2021, 09:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:
  • So the question I have is: Why are the Democrats throwing Cuomo under
    the bus?  They could easily bat away Cuomo's accusers, just as they've
    batted away Clinton's accusers.  I'm 100% certain it has nothing to do
    with sexual abuse or nursing home deaths, since Democrats don't even
    care about those.  Most likely is that they want to replace Cuomo with
    an even loonier leftist.

The big news about Cuomo is that he killed thousands of people in nursing homes by requiring them to accept people who had covid, and who proceeded to infect the rest of the residents.  This has been known by conservatives for almost a year, but has only recently broken into the mainstream media.  It also applies to lots of other blue state governors, and it the main reason why New York's covid death rate is so much higher than Florida's.

The sexual harassment "scandal" is just a way to bury Cuomo's - and other blue state governors' - mishandling of covid.

The big fault lies in the cover-up, and a cover-up of incompetence even without prior criminality is itself a crime for a government official. I have been hitting former President Trump hard for his bungled approach to COVID-19, but any misdirection from anyone can be a contributing factor. It was easy enough for people to blame t he spread of COVID-19 in New York upon its rapid transmission through NYC transit systems, especially the subways. 

I have praised Republican governors, especially in Indiana and Ohio, for responding swiftly and effectively to COVID-19. Mass death is not a partisan issue. Do right (Holcomb, DeWine) and you get my praise for bucking the Party and the partisan orientation of your state. Do badly, like Abbott or Ducey, and you get my scorn. 

Democrats tend to be much less lenient on their own for sexual harassment, as we have seen with Al Franken and now see with Andrew Cuomo. Right-wing authoritarians (and much of the GOP has gone that way) find it far easier to excuse serious misconduct. This sort recognizes Humanity as hopelessly depraved, and that one can overlook the misbehavior of such heroes as one has. Well, nobody is perfect, and without power one cannot achieve "national greatness".  With that national greatness may be war, corruption, persecutions, and the degradation of workers' lives, but annexing Lebensraum or some Co-Prosperity Sphere, sacrifices are necessary. 

It astonishes me that so many Republicans still think it OK that President Trump could egg on the Capitol Putsch, which resembles either the Bolsheviks storming the Winter Palace or the Beer Hall Putsch -- take your pick.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
(03-26-2021, 09:41 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(03-15-2021, 09:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So the question I have is: Why are the Democrats throwing Cuomo under the bus?  They could easily bat away Cuomo's accusers, just as they've batted away Clinton's accusers.  I'm 100% certain it has nothing to do with sexual abuse or nursing home deaths, since Democrats don't even care about those.  Most likely is that they want to replace Cuomo with an even loonier leftist.

The big news about Cuomo is that he killed thousands of people in nursing homes by requiring them to accept people who had covid, and who proceeded to infect the rest of the residents.  This has been known by conservatives for almost a year, but has only recently broken into the mainstream media.  It also applies to lots of other blue state governors, and it the main reason why New York's covid death rate is so much higher than Florida's.

The sexual harassment "scandal" is just a way to bury Cuomo's - and other blue state governors' - mishandling of covid.

New York got the brunt of the COVID variant from Europe early in the process, and made plenty of mistakes as a direct result -- the nursing home mess being one of several.  Cuomo's guilt lies not so much in the decision to send patients back: the ICUs were full and ERs were overflowing.  His guilt was lying about it -- that and getting his family preferential treatment.

The sex issues are totally separate and probably valid.  I loved his Dad, but Mario has always been a little too oleaginous: always working the angles, taking credit where he can, and always passing blame.  I'm not a fan, but I never liked the Clintons either.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
** 24-Mar-2021 World View: Massive cargo ship blocking the Suez Canal

[Image: 1000.jpg?width=700&quality=85&auto=forma...807e8172a9]
  • Massive cargo ship, the Ever Given, operated by
    Taiwanese company Evergreen Marine, wedged horizontally
    across the Suez Canal


One of the largest cargo ships in the world, the Ever Given, operated
by Taiwanese company Evergreen Marine, is wedged in the Suez Canal and
is blocking traffic in both directions. It ran aground on one side
and then rotated around so that it's blocking traffic on both sides.

There are already a few hundreds ships that are frozen in place,
waiting for the opportunity to continue. The only way to avoid the
Suez Canal is to travel around the southern tip of Africa, and that
can take several days.

The blockage is affecting all kinds of things -- oil deliveries, parts
for cars, and so forth. Already it's apparently begun to affect the
price of oil.

They hope to free the ship within a couple of days, but it may be
wedged too deeply in the sand to do that. In the worst case scenario,
they'll have to unload some of the cargo to lighten the ship, and that
could take weeks.

--- Source:

-- Evergreen / Ever Given, the massive cargo ship that ran aground in the Suez Canal, is still stuck
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/ever-giv...canal.html
(CNBC, 24-Mar-2021)
Reply
** 24-Mar-2021 World View: Trump's legacy

A web site reader asked me to comment on an article on Trump's legacy.
The following are excerpts from my response to him:

The problem I'm having with this article is that it's making a number
of political judgments that may seem true today, but which could turn
out to be false at any time in the future, even a few months from now.
Making these judgments is definitely not the domain of Generational
Dynamics.

Most likely, the only thing that will matter ten years from now is
whether and how well the country survives the war with China. The
current political nonsense will end with a "regeneracy event." This
is a concept in generational theory, referring to an event that
regenerates civic unity for the first time since the end of the
previous crisis war. It's an event that presents a strong existential
threat to the nation or society, and forces all sides to put aside
their political differences and unite behind the leadership for the
common survival.

In 1941, it was the Pearl Harbor attack and the Bataan Death March.

Today, it might be a missile attack on an American city, or it might
be a major military loss overseas. Today, it's most likely going to
be whatever event triggers war with China.

So if you take a look at the article, and evaluate the remarks in the
context of a Chinese missile attack on the United States, then you can
see that nothing that it says is something that anyone would care
about.

How will future historians evaluate Trump's presidency? Maybe they
will praise him for increasing military spending. Of maybe they will
condemn him for some policy that caused a Chinese advantage in a way
that we don't yet even know about.

These are the kinds of issues that I watch for and write about. The
creation of a Stalinist state by the Democrats, mainstream media and
Big Tech is probably the scariest domestic development in my lifetime.
The mindless destruction of the country by the Biden administration in
order to stay in power is heartbreaking.

And yet, I can't really say whether Biden's policies will help or hurt
during a war with China. For example, Biden's Open Borders policies
is creating a massive cartel force in Mexico using children for sex or
as slaves or drug mules. The Democrats are doing this because they
assume that these abused children will vote for Democrats. How will
these cartels act when there's a Chinese invasion?

Trump is promising to launch a new "Trump Big Tech Platform" within
the next 2-3 months, and he expects his 74 million supporters to
become subscribers. That may be the next event that will define
Trump's legacy. And then we might begin to see whether your article
is relevant.
Reply
** 25-Mar-2021 World View: North Korea launches two ballistic missiles, violating UN resolutions

[Image: np_file_77751.jpeg]
  • Kim Jong Un


North Korea launched two ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan on
Thursday, in violation of UN resolutions.

Earlier this week, North Korea fired two short-range missiles into the
sea. Those launches were legal under UN resolutions, and were largely
ignored by the US and its allies. However, the launch of ballistic
missiles is a clear violation of UN resolutions, and will require a
response from the Biden administration and other countries.

The missiles landed outside Japan's territorial waters and exclusive
economic zone and there have been no reports of harm caused to
aircraft or ships. Both Japan and South Korea have lodged formal
protests.

The timing is interesting. Thursday is the day of Joe Biden's long
awaited press conference, where he will take questions from reporters.
In the past, Biden's handlers have carefully selected the questions in
advance, and Biden simply read the answers from what appeared to be a
notebook. Reporters will have many questions about the North Korea
missile launch, but it will be interesting to see if most of them are
censored and suppressed.

---- Sources:

-- North Korea fires two ballistic missiles into Sea of Japan
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56518998
(BBC, 25-Mar-2021)

-- First North Korean National Brought to the United States to Stand
Trial for Money Laundering Offenses
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/first-nor...g-offenses
(DoJ, 24-Mar-2021)

-- North Korea test-fires ballistic missiles in message to US
https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-...b2d2350a3a
(AP, 25-Mar-2021)

-- Reaction to North Korea's ballistic missile launch
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-north...SKBN2BH068
(Reuters, 25-Mar-2021)

-- Biden laughs off question about North Korean missile test
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021...ot-vpx.cnn
(CNN, 24-Mar-2021)

-- North Korea missile launch tests Biden administration and Tokyo
Olympics
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/0...ea-launch/
(JapanTimes, 25-Mar-2021)

-- EXPLAINER: N. Korean missile tests follow same old playbook
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/new...d-playbook
(AP, 25-Mar-2021)

[Image: _101970867_north_korea_missiles_640v2_nc.png]

  • What missiles does North Korea have?
Reply
** 25-Mar-2021 World View: Xenophobia today

Bob Butler" Wrote:> World War II had strong racist and xenophobic elements. Count 6
> million Jews plus assorted Gypsies, homosexuals and others among
> the victims. While there is no doubt that Germany should hold the
> brunt of the blame, in the years after the war some counted the
> allies and the US as sharing some of the guilt. When people under
> threat tried to immigrate, they were for the most part turned
> away. Refusing the chance for asylum was a death warrant.

> The result was guilt trip based immigration and asylum laws. If
> anything like the holocaust started again, the US would not turn
> folks away. Some of this is still on the books, still is the
> official policy.

You're fighting the last war. If there was xenophobia during WW II,
then there's xenophobia on steroids today.

One obvious example is the xenophobia that you and other Democrats
feel towards the 74 million Trump supporters, to the extent of setting
up Stalinist censorship, and discriminating against them in other
ways. You, of all people, are in no position to deny the truth of
that.

But forget domestic xenophobia. The Chinese are full of xenophobia,
racism and hatred -- toward the Japanese, toward the Filipinos, toward
the Indians, toward the Russians. And don't forget the Uighurs, the
Tibetans and the Taiwanese. And having just published a book on
Vietnam, I can assure you it's also directed at the Vietnamese. So
from China alone, the xenophobia is massive.

Leaving China, there's Pakistan vs India, the Taliban vs ISIS, the
Jews vs the Arabs, the Sunnis vs the Shias.

As for the Holocaust, I've already pointed out that there are three
Holocausts going on today, in China, in Burma and in Syria.

So yeah, xenophobia is everywhere today.
Reply
** 25-Mar-2021 World View: Predictions

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> It will happen some time, but I don't know when. If I had to
> guess, my guess would be in my lifetime, but not in the next 10
> years.

Since thousands of people have believed something similar for
the last 2000 years, and they've all been proven wrong, you must
have some reason to believe that "This time it's different." Do you
have such a reason?

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> I haven't written books and made predictions on the parousia, nor
> have I made a forum about it, nor have I guaranteed anything about
> it. So it's not really a great analogy, but I've played your game
> even so. The point of the parousia is not to predict, so in that
> sense, you are missing a great deal of the theology around it
> already.

It's a good analogy because it provides a point of comparison. I guess
your point is that the Second Coming is entirely a matter of faith, with
no basis in reason or historical analogy. (Correct me if I'm wrong.)

As an analyst, I would say that if 2000 years of predictions have all
failed, then they're likely to fail for the next 2000 years, unless
there's some reason to conclude otherwise.

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Are you admitting that you have religious devotion to your ideas
> though? That could be a big breakthrough here, John. Very
> interesting where we have come.

Not at all. When I set up my web site in 2003, my expressly stated
purpose is that I would post analyses and predictions, and leave them
there for all to see. If they had been proven wrong, then no
"religious devotion" would have helped. I would have dropped
Generational Dynamics like a hot potato, and would probably have gone
on to be a much happier person, with more friends. As things stand,
those analyses and predictions have always been right, so I'm stuck.

The prediction of a likely war with China is entirely analytical, for
reasons I've posted many times. Briefly:
  • Based on the cycles of history, Generational Dynamics predicts
    a world war around this time.

  • There were two world wars in the last century, and massive additional
    wars on every continent. In fact, there have been massive wars on
    every continent every century for millennia, so it's nearly certain that
    there will be massive wars and one or two world wars this century.

  • If there were a way to assign a numeric measure to xenophobia, then
    that number would be going up in China towards Japan, Taiwan, the Phillipines,
    Russia, India, Kazakhstan, etc. These numbers have been growing steadily,
    with no sign of leveling off. Applying the rule that "If something can't
    go on forever, then it won't," there has to be a war.

So the evidence for the Generational Dynamics prediction of war is entirely
analytical, and has no "religious devotion" component at all.

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> I read your Singularity article and it was interesting. I suspect
> you are a scientific materialist, which explains quite a bit.

I don't know what a "scientific materialist" is, but it sounds
interesting.

Have you read Tom Mazanec's short story on the Singularity?

** 'Maybe we'll get it right this time' by Tom Mazanec
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...090309.htm
Reply
** 26-Mar-2021 World View: Prediction guarantees

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> If you have been predicting war since 2003, how have you "always
> been right"? Before you basically made guarantees in your posts
> about the coming war at a certain time. That's the only time I
> ever piped up and objected, precisely because your predictions
> haven't come true, yet (I agree, they may come soon, but I don't
> claim to know like you seem to claim).

> I have said many times that I predict a "likely war with China" as
> well. So I agree with you. But again, you have said in prior posts
> that you guarantee at this point that it'll happen (in 3-4 years
> very likely, and in 10 a guarantee). If you would like to retract
> that, fine, I have no problem understanding that you are
> correcting maybe a prior error in use of language. So please set
> the record straight.

OK, how about this. Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed
for new world war "soon." Analyzing trends, such as increasing
nationalism and xenophobia in various countries, makes it appear that
the world war will pit China vs US. It seems likely that it will
begin in the next 3-4 years, but it may begin later, with the
probability increasing with each year.

As the saying goes, "it is what it is." I can provide more analysis
to support those views, but I can't say, "war with China will begin on
July 23, 2025." That's impossible. And you're wrong when you say
I've been wrong, since I always use probabilistic language with
indefinite timings. If I name a specific date, then it's a typo. If
you'd like, search through my 2004 postings, and you'll find a place
where I did name a date. I was just starting out, and that was a
mistake, and I learned my lesson.

Back in the early days, I did try to assign probabilities, based on
data I'd collected. See the following:

** Six most dangerous regions in world (20-Nov-2004)
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...041120.htm



If you read through to the end, then you'll find that I computed the
probability of a crisis war in 2005 in one of the six dangerous
regions to be about 21%:

Code:
1 - (1-.0432)*(1-.0283)*(1-.0432)*(1-.0436)*(1-.0283)*(1-.0431)
    = .2089 = 20.89% ;

If it didn't happen in 2005, then the probability would go up a little
bit each year.

This approach didn't pan out, but it was an interesting approach to
trying to analyze probabilities.

I kept struggling with the concept of assigning probabilities. I
wrote the following article out of frustration:

** A beautiful mind? The world is paralyzed into a 'Nash equilibrium' (17-July-2006)
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...17nash.htm



I was trying to use a the concept of a "Nash equilibrium" to try to
explain why you couldn't predict dates and probabilities. I pretty
much gave up after this.

Around that time, I started looking at incorporating the concepts of
Chaos Theory into Generational Dynamics, and I developed the concept
that the start of a war would be a "chaotic event in the sense of
Chaos Theory," meaning that it could happen at any time, and would be
triggered by some random, unpredictable event. (Just as a butterfly
flapping its wings in China could cause a chain reaction leading to a
hurricane in America.) And I developed the concept of a "trend
value," something that's reasonably measureable, that grows worse with
time, where the saying "If something can't go on forever, then it
won't" applies. As time goes on, the probability that a random event
will trigger the chaotic event increases with time (since the trend
value is worsening).

Here's an analogy: A forest fire (chaotic event) can start when a
random spark (also a chaotic event) is applied to dry underbrush.
When the underbrush is wet, then a random spark will have no effect.
But as the underbrush dries out over time (trend value), then the
probability that a random spark (chaotic event) can trigger a forest
fire (chaotic event) increases with time. At some point, as the
underbrush becomes dryer and dryer (trend value), and the probability
that a random spark will start a forest fire increases, even the
tiniest spark can trigger a forest fire.

In the 1930s, tensions between Japan and China worsened constantly
(trend value). In 1937, a random event (chaotic event) occurred where
a Japanese soldier had to pee and got lost in the woods. This random
event triggered World War II: The Japanese accused the Chinese of
abducting him, and military actions began.

It's interesting that once the chaotic event occurred, things happened
very quickly. Within just a couple of months, the "Rape of Nanking"
occurred, for example.

Returning to the forest fire analogy, the underbrush must have been so
dry that once a tiny fire started, it became a huge forest fire very
rapidly.

So today, I'm saying that the underbrush is very dry (trend value), as
measured by rapidly increasing xenophobia and nationalism in many
countries, and all it needs is the right random trigger, a chaotic
event, to start a world war. And so: WW III could start tomorrow, or
next week, or next year, or five years from now. It's impossible to
predict when that will happen, but the underbrush gets dryer each day
(trend value), and the probability that a random event will trigger a
war grows every day.
Reply
** 26-Mar-2021 World View: David and Goliath in the Suez Canal

[Image: 727097ef4493b5c94b02c67eef6ba7d3?impolic...height=575]
  • David and Goliath: This lone backhoe is dredging sand, but
    it's no match for the Ever Given


Salvage experts are now projecting that it will take one to three
weeks to free the monster cargo ship Ever Given from the Suez Canal.
The ship got wedged Tuesday in a single-lane stretch of the canal,
about 3.7 miles north of the southern entrance, near the city of Suez.

The name of the ship is Ever Given. It is owned by the Japanese firm
Shoei Kisen KK. It is leased by a Taiwanese shipping company, the
Evergreen.

The blockade is holding up $10 billion of goods every day. Over 200
vessels are waiting near the canal, waiting to go through. In
addition, more than 100 ships are en route, although many of these are
now considering an alternate route, around the Cape of Good Hope at
the southern tip of Africa, adding 14 days to the trip.

Various dredgers and tugs are heading to the region to try to help
out. The US Navy is sending a team of dredging experts on Saturday.

The tide is coming in on Monday, and they hope to refloat the Ever
Given then. There's always the possibility that the Ever Given will
break up, resulting in an even greater disaster. If all else fails,
they'll have to try to remove some of the cargo, but that will require
very specialized equipment and will take weeks.

[Image: 61e9a8c2a7eea2e6d44047e5d0f9e597?src]
  • Infographic showing how the Ever Given is wedged in the Suez Canal


--- Sources:

-- The ship stuck in the Suez Canal — the Ever Given — is still
there. Here's what we know about the mission to dislodge it
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-26/s.../100030284
(Australian Broadcasting, 26-Mar-2021)

-- Ever Given / Maritime traffic jam grows outside blocked Suez Canal
https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2021/mar/...d-suez-ca/
(AP, 26-Mar-2021)
Reply
*** 28-Mar-21 World View -- North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion
  • Analysis of North Korea's nuclear weapons program
  • Sanctions and the Denuclearization Delusion
  • Contrasting negotiating styles: Joe Biden vs Donald Trump
  • Myanmar / Burma becomes toxic and explosive

****
**** North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion
****


[Image: g210327b.jpg]
Kim Jong-un and Joe Biden

North Korea launched two ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan on
Thursday, in violation of UN resolutions. The missiles landed outside
Japan's territorial waters and exclusive economic zone and there have
been no reports of harm caused to aircraft or ships. Both Japan and
South Korea have lodged formal protests.

The timing was interesting, because Thursday was the day of President
Joe Biden's long awaited press conference, where it was promised that
he would take questions from reporters. As expected, Biden's handlers
carefully selected the questions in advance, from carefully chosen
reporters, and the order in which they would be asked, so that all
Biden had to do was follow along in a notebook on his podium and read
the answers out loud. The reporters and questions were all fawning,
such as referring to Biden "as a moral, decent man," and the Fox News
reporter was carefully sidelined.

There was one question where Biden seemed totally unprepared, and that
was the question about North Korea's ballistic missile launch, which
had just occurred several hours before the press conference. Biden
looked down at the podium and read a prepared statement supplied by
his handlers. Here's what he said:

<QUOTE>"Let me say that, number one, U.N. Resolution 1718 was
violated by those particular missiles that were tested — number
one. We’re consulting with our allies and partners. And there will
be responses — if they choose to escalate, we will respond
accordingly.

But I’m also prepared for some form of diplomacy, but it has to be
conditioned upon the end result of denuclearization. So that’s
what we’re doing right now: consulting with our
allies."<END QUOTE>


Denuclearization is a delusional fantasy, as I'll describe below.

This is a reasonable statement, but if you watched the press
conference, as I did, Biden didn't appear to understand what he was
reading, and had a difficult time reading it. That portion of the
press conference appears right at the beginning of the al-Jazeera
video referenced below, so you can watch it and judge for yourself.
You can blame me as a wild-eyed ideologue for saying that Biden
appeared to be, at the least, cognitively challenged or worse, but my
perception is not important. What's important is that leaders around
the world were watching carefully and analyzing, and they know that
Biden is mouthing words, but doesn't know what he's saying. To me, it
was painful to watch, and almost cruel for his handlers to stand him
up and put him and the country through that.

Before proceeding with the analysis, I want to make it clear that it
makes no difference what Biden said. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, there is a powerful "March of History" going on
here. As I've been saying for years, North Korea is on a path to
develop nuclear weapons and missiles, and nothing that Clinton, Bush,
Obama, Trump or Biden could say or do will stop it (short of a
pre-emptive missile attack on all of North Korea's facilities, which
Trump threatened, but which was never going to happen). Diplomacy is
a worthless delusion in the March of History.

****
**** Analysis of North Korea's nuclear weapons program
****


I now want to quote excerpts from the best analysis of the North Korea
that I've seen in years (not counting some of my own). It appeared in
the al-Jazeera show Inside Story, and you can watch the whole thing by
following the link in the sources below.

The analysis was done by Tariq Rauf, former head of Verification &
Securiity Policy, at the IAEA, which is the United Nations nuclear
inspection agency.

He began by giving a summary of North Korea's current capabilities (my
transcription):

<QUOTE>"North Korea has one of the oldest nuclear programs in
the world. It started in 1953 [right at the end of the Korean
War].

They now have a complete nuclear fuel cycle -- uranium mining,
uranium enrichment, enriching to reactor grade uranieum, also to
weapons grade uranium, which is over 90%. They also have a
plutonium separation capability.

And they've obviously demonstrated that they can make nuclear
warheads. They carried out six nuclear tests, and if one looks at
the yields of the six nuclear tests, each one of them has been
bigger than the previous one. The last test in 2017 was nearly
140 kilotons.

And so North Korea, in its six tests, has demonstrated much more
advanced nuclear weapons capability than India or Pakistan did so
in 1998. Therefore it is a full program."<END QUOTE>


He said that their missile program is equally advanced: "They also
have a full suite of ballistic and cruise missiles. They have short
range or battlefield missiles, they have medium range missiles, and
they also have long range missiles."

He added that their nuclear program is pretty much completed, and the
only question left is the number of weapons they have in their
arsenal. "We believe they have 30, 40 or 50 nuclear weapons, can
apparently make 7 to 12 more per year per year."

****
**** Sanctions and the Denuclearization Delusion
****


For years, America and the United Nations have been using
sanctions to try to convince the North Koreans to denuclearize.
This was true under the Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump administrations,
and it's still true in the Biden administration, since Biden
has not made any statement about removing the sanctions.

During the al-Jazeera show, Tariq Rauf gave a lengthy discussion of
why sanctions have absolutely no chance of succeeding:

<QUOTE>"As for sanctions, nobody can point to a single case
in history where sanctions have reversed their nuclear, chemical
or biological weapons program in a country.

Sanctions did not affect South Africa, Iraq, Iran, didn't stop
India or Pakistan, and it's clear that they didn't stop North
Korea.

The leadership has shown in Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and also North
Korea that if the population has to tighten its belt, that's what
they will do.

And North Korea has also seen how Iraq, Libya and Iran have been
squeezed because they didn't have nuclear weapons.

Nobody threatens North Korea with an attack, nobody says all
options are on the table, so North Korea knows. They also know
that India and Pakistan have been accepted as [i]de facto

nuclear weapons states."<END QUOTE>[/i]

So Rauf makes it clear that North Korea's nuclear program is here to
stay, and sanctions will do nothing.

As I said, there is a March of History, and sanctions will not affect
it. By the time the world war ends, every one of North Korea's
nuclear weapons will be used somewhere -- on America, on Japan, on
South Korea, on China, on Russia, or elsewhere.

****
**** Contrasting negotiating styles: Joe Biden vs Donald Trump
****


Tariq Rauf also gives a comparison between Joe Biden and Donald Trump
in handling the North Korea situation:

<QUOTE>"Biden has already insulted the Russian president, the
Chinese president, has insulted Kim Jong-Un as a Hitler and as a
thug. How does he expect them to have a meaningful dialog?

President Biden who is also known for rash decisions, and for
insulting foreign leaders, needs also to be restrained. We
criticize president Trump quite justifiably, but president Biden
is no angel either. He's not going to wave a magic wand and
things are going to fall into place."<END QUOTE>


This gives rise to a comparison of the two negotiating styles,
always keeping in mind that the March of History will be same,
irrespective of the American president's negotiating style.

As I described many times, I was initially quite contemptuous of
Trump's lack of knowledge of the world, until the unexpected happened:
He selected as his principal advisor Steve Bannon, who is an expert on
both military history and Generational Dynamics, as I worked with him
off and on for several years. Bannon educated Trump on what was
happening in China, South Korea and elsewhere, and Trump used that
knowledge, combined with this own "Art of the Deal" skills, in his
relations with foreign leaders. Thus, he developed a friendly
father-son relationship with Kim Jong-un, and repeatedly complimented
Xi Jinping as a great leader, although that changed dramatically in
March 2020, when the CCP infuriated Trump by announcing that the
coronavirus had been inserted into Wuhan province by the American
army.

At his press conference on Thursday, Joe Biden emphasized that he
had a long relationship with China's president Xi Jinping:

<QUOTE>"I’ve known Xi Jinping for a long time. Allegedly, by
the time I left office as Vice President, I had spent more time
with Xi Jinping than any world leader had, because President Obama
and the Chinese President Hu decided we should get to know one
another since it was inappropriate for the President of the United
States to spend time with the vice president of another
country. But it was obvious he was going to become the new leader
of China.

So, I spent hours upon hours with him alone with an interpreter —
my interpreter and his — going into great detail. He is very, very
straightforward. Doesn’t have a democratic — with a small “D” —
bone in his body. But he’s a smart, smart guy. He’s one of the
guys, like Putin, who thinks that autocracy is the wave of the
future and democracy can’t function in an ever — an ever-complex
world.

So, when I was elected and he called to congratulate me, I think
to the surprise of the China experts who were — his people were on
call as well as mine, listening — we had a two-hour
conversation. For two hours. ....

And earlier this month — and apparently it got the Chinese’s
attention; that’s not why I did it — I met with our allies and how
we’re going to hold China accountable in the region: Australia,
India, Japan, and the United States — the so-called Quad. Because
we have to have democracies working together.

Before too long, I’m going to have — I’m going to invite an
alliance of democracies to come here to discuss the future. And so
we’re going to make it clear that in order to deal with these
things, we are going to hold China accountable to follow the rules
— to follow the rules — whether it relates to the South China Sea
or the North China Sea, or their agreement made on Taiwan, or a
whole range of other things. ....

And the third thing, and the thing that I admire about dealing
with Xi is he understands — he makes no pretense about not
understanding what I’m saying any more than I do him — I pointed
out to him: No leader can be sustained in his position or her
position unless they represent the values of the country. And I
said as — “And, Mr. President, as I’ve told you before, Americans
value the notion of freedom. America values human rights. We don’t
always live up to our expectations, but it’s a values system. We
are founded on that principle. And as long as you and your country
continues to so blatantly violate human rights, we’re going to
continue, in an unrelenting way, to call to the attention of the
world and make it clear — make it clear what’s happening.”

And he understood that. I made it clear that no American President
— at least one did — but no American President ever back down from
speaking out of what’s happening to the Uighurs, what’s happening
in Hong Kong, what’s happening in-country.

That’s who we are. The moment a President walks away from that, as
the last one did, is the moment we begin to lose our legitimacy
around the world. It’s who we are."<END QUOTE>


Biden was making the point that he has a relationship with Xi Jinping,
though apparently a fairly hostile one -- but that's better than
no relationship. However, he has no similar relationship with
Russia's Vladimir Putin, whom he recently called a "killer,"
nor with Kim Jong-un, whom he has called a thug, a dictator
and a tyrant.

We have to mention that the Trump administration spoke out forcefully
about human rights in China, and about the Uighurs. Biden's claim
otherwise may be a lie, or more likely he doesn't know, since his
handlers didn't bother to tell him. However, world leaders who
watched Biden stumble through his press conference are well aware that
he lied. (See "20-Jan-21 World View -- Pompeo bashes China over genocide, virus, Taiwan on last days of Trump administration"
)

So it's not surprising that North Korea's media made a particularly
harsh response to Biden's statement:

<QUOTE>"We cannot but build invincible physical power for
reliably defending the security of our state under the present
situation in which south Korea and the U.S. constantly pose
military threats to the Korean peninsula while persistently
conducting dangerous war exercises and introducing advanced
weapons.

We express our deep apprehension over the U.S. chief executive
faulting the regular testfire, exercise of our state's right to
self-defence, as the violation of UN "resolutions" and openly
revealing his deep-seated hostility toward the DPRK.

Such remarks from the U.S. president are an undisguised
encroachment on our state's right to self-defence and provocation
to it.

It is a gangster-like logic that it is allowable for the U.S. to
ship the strategic nuclear assets into the Korean peninsula and
launch ICBMs any time it wants but not allowable for the DPRK, its
belligerent party, to conduct even a test of a tactical weapon.

We clearly remember that after the appearance of the new
administration in Washington there have been exploitation of every
opportunity to make words and acts provoking the sovereignty and
dignity of our state in which we were branded as the most serious
"security threat".

The bellicose stance of the new U.S. administration awakens us to
the way to be followed by us and convinces us of the justice of
the work to be done by us once again."<END QUOTE>


It's worth remembering that North Korea is a vassal of Communist
China. Kim Jong-un occasionally throws a temper tantrum and does
something the CCP doesn't like, but basically Kim does as he's told.
I consider it likely that the CCP gave Kim the OK for Thursday's
ballistic missile launches.

In my opinion, North Korea will not launch any military attacks
without China's permission, and that means it will be done in
coordination with China's invasion of Taiwan or Japan or an attack on
the United States, at some point in the future.

So that's the state of the relations between America and North Korea
today.

****
**** Myanmar / Burma becomes toxic and explosive
****


I want to add a brief word about a different subject.

The situation in Myanmar (Burma) is becoming toxic to the point of
being close to explosive. Some 50-80 people peaceful protesters were
killed on Saturday alone, with no provocation. These included
children and even babies in their homes. The violence by the army is
becoming horrific and unrestrained. Furthermore, other ethnic groups,
including the Kachin and the Shan, are threatening to intervene unless
the violence stops.

Burma's generational crisis war was an extremely bloody multi-ethnic
civil war following independence (1948-1958). It's been 65 years
since the end of that civil war, and so Burma is due for a new one,
and that appears to be happening.

This is going to trigger large refugee flows into Thailand, India and
China, so those countries may be brought into the war. Russia,
incidentally, is supporting Burma's army, and so probably expects to
gain from a Burma civil war.

Sources:

Related Articles:





KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Sea of Japan,
March of History, Tariq Rauf, IAEA, China, Xi Jinping, Uighurs,
South Africa, Iraq, Iran, India, Pakistan, Libya,
Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, Joe Biden,
Quad, Australia, India, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Myanmar, Burma, Thailand

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
John, I think you had a good idea when you came up with the forest fire metaphor!
Reply
*** 29-Mar-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma protests turn into ethnic civil war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Myanmar/Burma protests turn into ethnic civil war
  • The 'silent strike' threatens a complete economic and healthcare collapse
  • As the violence increases, clashes with ethnic groups grow
  • General Min Aung Hlaing thanks Russia for its support
  • Conflicting strategies of Russia versus China in Myanmar
  • Irony and Karmic retribution

****
**** Myanmar/Burma protests turn into ethnic civil war
****


[Image: g210328b.jpg]
Friday meeting between Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu and Myanmar's army leader Min Aung Hlaing to discuss Russia's support for the slaughter (Tass)

Saturday was the deadliest day yet of violence by the Myanmar/Burma
army since the February 1 military coup, and installation of a junta
headed by army leader General Min Aung Hlaing. In cities across the
country, some 80-100 peaceful protesters were killed on that day
alone, with no provocation, as the violence by the army is becoming
horrific and unrestrained.

These included children and even babies in their homes. Hundreds of
people have been killed, including a seven-year-old girl reportedly
shot dead in her home this week. Soldiers have also occupied major
public hospitals and attacked healthcare workers, including emergency
responders trying to help injured protesters.

According to reports, the security forces have occupied 36 hospitals
around the country and, in some cases, patients have been evicted from
these hospitals. (This is reminiscent of another war criminal,
Syria's Bashar al-Assad, specifically targeting hospitals with
missiles to prevent medical care.)

****
**** The 'silent strike' threatens a complete economic and healthcare collapse
****


Because peaceful street protests are being met with increasingly
horrific violence by the army, protesters are trying a new tack -- a
"silent strike." Starting Wednesday of last week, a growing number of
public servants, bankers, and employees in other key industries are
deserting their jobs en masse in a civil disobedience movement to
demand an end to the violence.

The junta has responded in the only way it knows how -- by going to
the homes of the strikers and arresting them. Several hundred public
servants and bankers have been arrested, according to reports.

Many doctors and nurses at major public hospitals have joined a
nationwide civil disobedience movement, which has severely constricted
healthcare delivery. The result is that the public health system has
come to a near standstill and the public health system teeters on the
brink of collapse.

****
**** As the violence increases, clashes with ethnic groups grow
****


As the violence grows into full-scale civil war, there are now growing
ethnic conflicts.

On Sunday morning, army fighter jets launched air strikes against a
region along the Thai border populated by the Karen ethnic group,
killing eight people. As a result of the air strikes, at least 3,000
people fled across the border into Thailand. There are already more
tha 7,500 refugees who have been living in refugee camps along the
Thai-Burma border.

The air strikes were in retaliation for attacks on the Burmese army by
the Karen National Union (KNU) on Saturday. At least seven members of
the military were captured. That was just the latest in a series of
skirmishes between the KNU and the army since the February 1 coup,
which the KNU opposed.

The Karen have been persecuted throughout Burma's history. In 2004, a
ceasefire between the Karen and the Burmese government was brokered,
but human rights abuses continue, including forced labor, village
burnings, arbitrary taxation, rape, and extrajudicial killings.
140,000 refugees from Burma, mostly Karen, are living in refugee camps
in Thailand, some for as many as 20 years.

Another ethnic group, the Kachin, have also been in clashes with
government security forces.

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) launched simultaneous attacks on at
least four of the junta’s police battalions in a Kachin State township
early on Sunday morning. Up to 20 policement were killed, and the KIA
seized weaponry from the sites.

This situation is growing into a repeat of Burma's last generational
crisis war, an extremely bloody civil war (1948-1958) following
independence, and involving multiple ethnic groups, along with
intervention by the Chinese.

According to the Generational Dynamics 58-Year Hypothesis, which by
now has been well proven, a new ethnic civil war will not begin less
than 58 years from the end of the previous ethnic civil war. That's
because 58 years is precisely amount the time when the generations of
survivors of the preceding all die or retire, all at once, and the
younger post-war generations come to power. It has now been 63 years
since the end of the last ethnic civil war, so Myanmar is fully ripe
for a new ethnic civil war, and that seems to be what's happening.

****
**** General Min Aung Hlaing thanks Russia for its support
****


On Saturday, while Burma's army were slaughtering innocent Burmese
people peacefully conducting pro-democracy protests against the
February 1 coup, Burma's army held a massive parade and weapons
exhibition to celebrate Armed Forces Day, which commemorates the
army's rebellion in 1945 against Japanese occupation. At the
ceremony, the army leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said that the
military would protect the people and strive for democracy.

Many countries in the international community had been expressing
horror at the ongoing violence in Myanmar. And yet, despite the
horrific ongoing violence, there were eight countries that sent
representatives to join Hlaing in the celebrations: Russia, China,
India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand.

During his speech, Hlaing singled out one of these eight countries --
Russia. He welcomed the presence of the Russians at the ceremony and
said, "Russia is a true friend," having previously referred to Moscow
as a "loyal friend."

And indeed, Russia is a friend to war criminal Hlaing. Russia has
been a leading supplier of weapons to Burma's army. If you see
armored vehicles on the streets of Myanmar in videos, those vehicles
were almost certainly supplied by the Russians.

****
**** Conflicting strategies of Russia versus China in Myanmar
****


In Western media, Russia and China are often portrayed as having
similar relationships to Myanmar. This largely comes from the fact
that Russia and China jointly veto any attempt in the United Nations
Security Council to condemn Myanmar for its war crimes and genocidal
violence.

However, from Myanmar's point of view, the two countries are quite
different. Russia is geographically remote, while China shares a long
border. This means that Russia is simply a weapons provider, and
really doesn't how the slaughter in Myanmar evolves. General Hlaing
has cultivated defense ties with Moscow over the past decade to avoid
dependence on China, which is Myanmar's largest weapons supplier.

But the situation is much more complex for China. China is heavily
involved in building Myanmar's infrastructure, including a joint
construction project to build the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor
(CMEC), which is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The
CMEC focuses on 12 areas including basic infrastructure, construction,
manufacturing, agriculture, transport, finance, human resource
development and telecommunications.

Thus, it is critical for China that the Myanmar people not blame the
Chinese for the ongoing violence. There have already been attacks on
Chinese factories by groups claiming that the Chinese are supporting
the army violence.

That's why the Russians are able to express open support for the army,
while the Chinese are holding back, waiting to see what happens. The
Russians couldn't care less how many innocent civilians are
slaughtered, and don't care if they're blamed for it in some way. The
Chinese don't care either, but they have business interests in Myanmar
that outweigh any other considerations.

****
**** Irony and Karmic retribution
****


Buddhists are into Karma, and so it must have occurred to many of them
in Myanmar that there a great deal of irony in the the country's
situation, as well as Karmic retribution.

Since 2011, Burma's army has been committing atrocities on Muslim
ethnic Rohingyas living in Rakhine State, and I've written many
articles about this. The atrocities included gang rape, violent
torture, execution-style killings and the razing of entire villages,
in a scorched earth campaign. These atrocities have been cheered by
the ordinary Myanmar people, most of whom apparently hate the
Rohingyas.

Aung Sang Suu Kyi became a "useful idiot" for the army by presenting a
sympathetic, tired, weary, female face to the world, defending the
army to deflect the horrors and atrocities that are occurring in their
country. In 2019, the International Court of Justice in the Hague
held a trial on Burma's genocide, and Aung Sang Suu Kyi came and
defended the army, saying that nothing had happened.

So now, the worm has turned, as the old saying goes. The army had no
more use for the useful idiot Aung Sang Suu Kyi, so she's now in jail.
The horrors and atrocities that the army perpetrated on the Rohingyas
are now being perpetrated on Buddhist civilians. That is truly Karmic
justice.

I saw a Burma citizen being interviewed on the BBC about the violence.
He was asked about the Rohingyas, and asked how he felt about the
genocide and ethnic cleansing that went on. He said that he couldn't
speak out for the Rohingyas when the genocide was going on because he
would have been punished. But now, he says, the Rohingyas are his
beloved "brothers," and he welcomes their return to the country. It
makes you want to vomit, doesn't it.

I've been around a long time, and I've learned to believe in Karma.
People who do evil things eventually become the victims of their own
evil. It's sometimes phrased as "what goes around comes around,"
meaning that the evil circles back to the evildoer. There's no easy
explanation, except that people who are evil do stupid things, and
their stupid evil acts catch up with them. I've seen this many, many
times in my life, and the Karmic retribution going on in Myanmar today
is one of the best examples I've ever seen.

Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma,
Min Aung Hlaing, Thailand, China, Russia,
Karen ethnic group, Karen National Union, KNU,
Kachin, Kachin Independence Army, KIA,
Aung Sang Suu Kyi, Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Karmic retribution

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
** 28-Mar-2021 World View: Forest fires

(03-28-2021, 06:01 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > John, I think you had a good idea when you came up with the forest
> fire metaphor!

Yes, I agree. I'm planning on expanding it. It works a lot better
than the straw breaking the camel's back metaphor.
Reply
*** 2-Apr-21 World View -- Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion
  • Russia fires back at reports of a potential invasion of Ukraine

****
**** Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion
****


[Image: g210401b.jpg]
A trainload of tanks in southwestern Russia headed in the direction of the border with Ukraine earlier this week

The US armed forces European Command has raised its threat watch
assessement to its highest level -- "potential imminent crisis" --
because of growing reports of trains loaded with large amounts of
Russian military hardware, including aircraft, tanks and other heavy
armored vehicles, as well as heavy artillery and ground troops, headed
toward the border with Ukraine.

In 2014, Russia troops invaded Ukraine in support of Russian
separatists in eastern Ukraine. The purpose was to break off
the entire eastern portion of Ukraine and annex it to the Russian
Federation.

That didn't happen, but Russia also invaded Ukraine's Crimea peninsula
and annexed it and made it part of the Russian federation.
It's been assumed that Russia has wanted to complete the job of
annexing eastern Ukraine, and there are concerns the Russians plan
to do exactly that right now.

Russia may have decided to strike now because of the new Biden
administration in Washington. Last Thursday press conference by Biden
was undoubtedly analyzed closely by the Kremlin, and it was clear that
Biden has no idea what's going on. In addition, the world can see
that the Biden administration has completely lost control of its
southern border. The Kremlin analysts may have decided that it would
take a long time for the Biden administration to do anything, if the
Biden administration did anything, and that therefore they can invade
Ukraine with impunity. (See "28-Mar-21 World View -- North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion"
.)

****
**** Russia fires back at reports of a potential invasion of Ukraine
****


Russia's mealy-mouthed spokesman Dmitry Peskov issued a statement
saying that there's nothing to see here:

<QUOTE>"Russian Federation is moving its troops within its
territory, at its own discretion. Nobody should be concerned
about it. It poses no threat to anyone."<END QUOTE>


At this point, it's worthwhile to make a list of previous Russian lies
related to the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine:
  • Russia always denied that there were Russian army troops in
    Ukraine, and when it was proven there were, the Russians claimed that
    they were just "volunteers." That also turned out to be
    disinformation, as 80% of Russia's army is a volunteer army. America
    has an all-volunteer army. So saying that Russian troops in Ukraine
    are "volunteers" is like saying that America's troops in Afghanistan
    are "volunteers."

  • Russia lied about invading east Ukraine when it had Russian
    troops in east Ukraine.

  • In July 2014, the Russians in eastern Ukraine shot down Malaysia
    Airlines Flight MH17 passenger plane with a Russian Buk 9M38 missile
    that was transported by a Volvo truck from Russia, as was confirmed in
    2015 by a Dutch report following a lengthy investigation. Russia made
    one moronic claim after another, everything from the claim that MH17
    fell out of the sky by itself to a claim that the US shot down MH17 to
    embarrass Putin.

  • Russia lied about invading Crimea, and then invaded Crimea.

  • Putin said Russia had no intention of annexing Crimea, but then
    annexed Crimea a few days later and gave medals to the military
    officers who had invaded Crimea. Later, in a televised interview,
    Putin bragged that he had ordered the invasion and annexation of
    Crimea weeks before it occurred, and then lied about it.

According to US estimates, Russia has about 32,700 military personnel
in Crimea, some 28,000 personnel in "separatist" units in areas of
eastern Ukraine known collectively as the Donbass who have been
fighting the government in Kiev since 2015.

A member of the Generational Dynamics forum, Navigator, an expert on
military history, says:

<QUOTE>"You do not move this kind of stuff [tanks and armored
vehicles] around unless you mean to use it. Russia wants the
traditional Ukraine back. This is up to the line of
Odessa/Vinnetsa. They will probably allow Ukraine to remain in
what was once the Austro-Hungarian province of Galicia, centered
around the city of Lvov. Given Europe's current state, plus a
weak US administration, they know they will be able to get away
with this.

My bet is that Putin will go all in after Ukraine. After that he
will take a breather to get ready for the Baltics. Going after
the Baltics will require a NATO response. But my guess is that
they will appear so weak due to an almost non-existent response to
the Ukrainian campaign that the threat of this will not dissuade
him. He could also have intel that the Chinese will be going
after Taiwan at the same time he will be prepared to go into the
Baltics. This is my guess."<END QUOTE>


So now more Russian troops ("volunteers?") are headed for the border
with Ukraine, and Peskov says, "Nobody should be concerned about it."

However, the Pentagon is concerned about it, as evidenced by the rise
in the threat watch assessement to its highest level -- "potential
imminent crisis."

According to Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby: "We obviously don’t
want to see any more violations of Ukrainian territory. We’ve been
very clear about the threats that we see from Russia across domains
... we’re taking them very seriously."

Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Donbas,
European Command, EUCOM, Crimea, Dmitry Peskov,
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, Buk 9M38 missile,
John Kirby

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E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
Solutions for Burma:

1. It must greatly shrink its military. Not since Thug Japan has there been a sizable country so much under the thrall of its armed forces that the People need to be relived of it. We all know how the Japanese Armed Forces were reduced in size and influence, and under what conditions. The only good thing I can say about the Burmese Army is that it has never committed an act of aggression that could start a dangerous war. A country nearly surrounded by two superpowers (China and India) and a significant power in Thailand must act with due care. It would be extremely unwise to mess with India in part because India has one of the best intelligence networks in existence. Apparently it got much of its training from the Israeli Mossad.

Under a dictatorship that bleeds and beats people with impunity, any invader can find itself with fifth columns quickly at its disposal at low cost for the invader or occupier. "Treat us well" may be enough.

2. Burma needs to become more of a free-market society. "Barracks socialism" is good for empowering the Armed Forces and keeping people obedient, but that is about all that it is "good" for.

3. Give control over the land of the Rohingya Muslims to Bangladesh. I cannot imagine any better result. Microstates fare badly unless they are super-prosperous (let us say Luxembourg).i
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
(03-27-2021, 09:49 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 24-Mar-2021 World View: Trump's legacy

A web site reader asked me to comment on an article on Trump's legacy.
The following are excerpts from my response to him:

The problem I'm having with this article is that it's making a number
of political judgments that may seem true today, but which could turn
out to be false at any time in the future, even a few months from now.
Making these judgments is definitely not the domain of Generational
Dynamics.

As with Strauss and Howe, one has at most generalities about the powerful tendencies in histories that follow cyclical patterns without expressing the details. The details are either how the "little people" do about overwhelming realities (such as machine-gun fire, ecological catastrophes, economic meltdowns, or dangerous epidemics) or the quirks of the  Great Men (and hyper-villains) of history. Some people fulfill their roles well (Sir Winston Churchill); some bungle them badly (Alexander Kerensky), and some fail due to their own vices (pick a high-level Nazi -- any high-level Nazi!). 

We can compare our contemporaries in a Crisis Era to the other leaders... and as I saw movies from this Crisis Era about Abraham Lincoln and Sir Winston Churchill and tried to figure out how Donald Trump would face analogous challenges to the survival of the orders for which Lincoln and Churchill stood, I could see Donald Trump coming up far short. Okay, okay, okay. We all have our preconceptions of what can work and what cannot... and what, even if successful for immediate objectives leads only to larger calamities. Donald Trump is a textbook example of a pathological narcissist, and although nearly all successful politicians have higher-than-average levels of narcissism, the effective ones can rein it in, at least on the public stage, when such is necessary. Many of us men might have pornographic fantasies, but we know enough that we cannot have a "casting couch" for subordinates (Harvey Weinstein), do date rape (Bill Cosby), or show self-made porn to our associates (which will likely take down Representative Matt Gaetz if something else related doesn't). Donald Trump is intellectually hollow, which makes him especially prone to being taken in by someone who knows how to press the right buttons on his personality.    

We've all read some Freud, have we not? One cannot understand any time after the start of the twentieth century without applying Freudian thought to him. In that light, Trump looks really, really bad. Good people do not mock the handicapped. Good people do not burn others in business dealings. A truly-good businessman tries to make others do repeat business, which distinguishes someone like Ray Kroc (McDonald's). Akio Morita (Sony), or Sam Walton (Wal-Mart) from Donald Trump. The best businessmen leave their customers in better condition than they were in before making the deals. Fleeces are good for one profitable, one-sided transaction after which one needs another to replace someone who can never be a customer again. I have seen him on the commercial stage for most of his adult life, and I never saw anything about him that made me want to have any dealing with him.

So much about him is cringe-worthy, including his inability to recognize a failure when it happens as such (good people learn from their mistakes), his expressions of ethnic and religious bigotry (obsolete and dangerous), his quickness to anger, his serial divorces, his connections to gangsters, his sadistic streak, his steadfast allegiance to falsehoods that have since proved "inoperable" (as one Watergate figure called such a lie), and a lack of faith in anything other than himself. Involvement with a porn star? Now that is reckless. I look at the virtues that I associate with political figures at their best, and I instead see cruelty, selfishness, hollowness, bigotry, deceit, greed, and irresponsibility. Were I in the position of hiring someone for a job with responsibility toward others, then those traits would cause me to give a resolute NO! to the proposition.                


Quote:Most likely, the only thing that will matter ten years from now is
whether and how well the country survives the war with China.  The
current political nonsense will end with a "regeneracy event."  This
is a concept in generational theory, referring to an event that
regenerates civic unity for the first time since the end of the
previous crisis war.  It's an event that presents a strong existential
threat to the nation or society, and forces all sides to put aside
their political differences and unite behind the leadership for the
common survival.

Or perhaps averting a war.  I can think of two regimes that I would gladly feed to the Panda. One is the military regime in Burma. The other -- you will see soon enough. 


Quote:In 1941, it was the Pearl Harbor attack and the Bataan Death March.

Today, it might be a missile attack on an American city, or it might
be a major military loss overseas.  Today, it's most likely going to
be whatever event triggers war with China.

North Korea. with leadership far more brutal and erratic, seems far more dangerous than the People's Republic of China. The official position of the PRC is its desire for a nuclear-free Korea. North Korea at the least is hemmed in by dangerous powers . one of which (China) could destroy the regime. Any two of the others (Japan, South Korea, and Russia) could also do so. Xi Jinping has some cause for caution in dealings with other countries. The Emperor-in-all-But-Name of North Korea has no caution.   


Quote:So if you take a look at the article, and evaluate the remarks in the
context of a Chinese missile attack on the United States, then you can
see that nothing that it says is something that anyone would care
about.

How will future historians evaluate Trump's presidency?  Maybe they
will praise him for increasing military spending.  Of maybe they will
condemn him for some policy that caused a Chinese advantage in a way
that we don't yet even know about.

Many foreign leaders who could not rely upon him to do the right thing (Angela Merkel is about as blatant an example as is possible) chose to wait him out, expecting him to be defeated in the upcoming election. Xi Jinping, who could not make a coherent deal with him, made none. Donald Trump is simply too erratic. Maybe one pulls off fait-accompli  after another upon an inattentive leader. Donald Trump is not a hands-on leader unless his ego or personal assets or indulgence is at stake. Good leaders can make personal sacrifices for something bigger, at the least as an example for others in a rough time.    
  

Quote:These are the kinds of issues that I watch for and write about.  The
creation of a Stalinist state by the Democrats, mainstream media and
Big Tech is probably the scariest domestic development in my lifetime.
The mindless destruction of the country by the Biden administration in
order to stay in power is heartbreaking.

As it is inappropriate to compare someone to Adolf Hitler unless showing some of the salient characteristics of Hitler's ideology or practice, like racism, mass murder, racism, militarism, despotism, and the personality cult it is unfair and inappropriate to compare someone who does not do what Stalin did to the vile tyrant himself. Then again, I see far more warning signs in Donald Trump than in any prior President or his one successor.

Yes, I know -- 74 million people voted for Trump in 2020 despite all that went wrong under him, so after he is off the political stage someone with a similar ideology but fewer troublesome eccentricities and much more political savvy might get elected. This sort of figure has supporters who want super-cheap labor, lax regulation, low taxes on themselves, Big Government that serves their interests that the Common Man pays for but gets little from  except for threats, the destruction of labor unions, and privatization on the cheap of government assets to be managed by monopolistic exploiters. 

That Donald Trump was able to egg people on into breaking into the Capitol building to disrupt the formality of recognizing his electoral defeat indicates the level of fanaticism  among some people on the Hard Right. The people who broke into the Capitol building were not dregs of society, like addicts, lunatics, the mentally-retarded, and hardened criminals. Many were people who seemed mainstream enough before January 6. These people did not become losers until January 6, when they lost their credibility and put their positions and assets at grave risk.    


Quote:And yet, I can't really say whether Biden's policies will help or hurt
during a war with China.  For example, Biden's Open Borders policies
is creating a massive cartel force in Mexico using children for sex or
as slaves or drug mules.  The Democrats are doing this because they
assume that these abused children will vote for Democrats.  How will
these cartels act when there's a Chinese invasion?

These children are coming almost entirely from countries poorer and less stable than Mexico. Those countries have internal violence fueled by by funds that came from American addicts whose purchases become blood money. You can be sure that the INS does check for drugs in possession... and many of those children have good cause to hate drugs. America has plenty of people to take them in and guide them -- a large and well-entrenched Mexican-American community that does much well. Mexican-Americans "underuse" drugs and even smoke less than other Americans.  

I see no reason for these children to grow up to be supporters of the PRC in a struggle with the USA.   

Quote:Trump is promising to launch a new "Trump Big Tech Platform" within
the next 2-3 months, and he expects his 74 million supporters to
become subscribers.  That may be the next event that will define
Trump's legacy.  And then we might begin to see whether your article
is relevant.

The legacy that Trump has left is that 81 million people voted against him, and that even after he was defeated he disgraced his Presidency with his promotion of an insurrection. His approval numbers were short of what was necessary go get re-elected even after a spirited and competent campaign, or at least one in which the opponent had the metaphoric hands tied behind his back. He got close, even miraculously close, to winning a re-election. 

He scared me when I saw images of Chevrolet Suburban vehicles with a US flag and a Trump banner letting out people who harassed protesters. Like or dislike Antifa, that is how one of the aspects of a dictatorship emerges: a secret police. Trump got his supporters to commit crimes on his behalf and even risk their lives of death from a pandemic, the response to which he bungled severely. He refused to advocate any lockdown at all.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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*** 9-Apr-21 World View -- The Troubles: Violence in Northern Ireland revives as consequence of Brexit

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • The Troubles: Violence in Northern Ireland revives as consequence of Brexit
  • Brief generational history of violence in the Isle of Ireland
  • The beginning of 'The Troubles'

****
**** The Troubles: Violence in Northern Ireland revives as consequence of Brexit
****


[Image: g210408b.jpg]
Hijacked cars burn at the Peace Wall as rioting broke out in West Belfast, Northern Ireland on Wednesday (AP)

The last week in Belfast, Northern Ireland, has seen the worst ethnic
street violence in decades. There is a concrete "Peace Wall" in
Belfast, separating the two warring neighborhoods. People have been
lobbing bricks and Molotov cocktails across the Peace Wall in both
directions. The violence worsened when the gate in the Peace Wall was
smashed open. At least 55 police officers have been injured over
several nights of rioting.

The violence has been triggered by the consequences of the Brexit
deal that took the United Kingdom (England, Wales, Scotland,
Northern Ireland) out of the European Union. There were many
difficult issues that had to be resolved, but the most intractable
was the fact that Northern Ireland is part of the UK, while the
Republic of Ireland (Southern Ireland) is part of the EU. This
is the only place (if you don't count Gibraltar) where there is
a land border separating the UK and the EU after Brexit.

So the biggest deal in the Brexit negotiations was that Ireland and
Northern Ireland must have a "frictionless border," so that people and
goods could pass freely back and forth without customs and border
checks. So a Spanish company that wants to ship goods to England
without paying British tariffs could simply trans-ship them through
Northern Ireland -- that is, ship them to Ireland, send them across
the "frictionless border" to Northern Ireland, and then ship them
across the Irish Sea to England. Similarly, an English firm could
ship goods to Spain by trans-shipping in the opposite direction, and
avoid paying EU tariffs.

Well, that could never work. No politician is going to voluntarily
give up tariffs. So the solution is that there has to be a
"customs border in the Irish Sea." So goods shipped back and
forth between England and Northern Ireland now have to go
through customs and result in tariff charges.

During the Brexit negotiations, politicians said that if there were a
customs check between Northern Ireland and Ireland, then this would
infuriate the "Catholic republicans," and would trigger a revival of
"The Troubles," the three decades violence in Northern Ireland. So
they did it the other way, and put in a customs check in the Irish
Sea, and this has infuriated the "Protestant loyalists," and this is
triggering a revival of The Troubles anyway.

****
**** Brief generational history of violence in the Isle of Ireland
****


Northern Ireland's indigenous Gaelic Irish people (usually Catholic,
republican, nationalist, "green") have been at war with the
descendants of invading English and Scottish people (usually
Protestant, loyalist, unionist, "orange") off and on since the 1400s.
The Republicans want Northern Ireland to merge with the Republic of
(Southern) Ireland, while the Loyalists want to remain loyal to the
British crown and have Northern Ireland remain in the UK.

There have been clashes between the two groups since the 1400s, but
the most important pattern of wars was set by the Nine Years War
(1594-1603), where the Irish Gaelics attempted to overthrow English
rule. The result was the Plantation of Ulster, which Gaelics today
refer to as genocide and "ethnic cleansing," because the British drove
the Gaelics from their land, took it over as landlords, and used the
Gaelics as servants.

The next crisis war for Northern Ireland was the Williamite-Jacobite
war, climaxing in a victory of the British with the Battle of the
Boyne on July 12, 1690. This was the date of the victory of
Protestant William of Orange over the Catholic King James II, and it
followed England's Glorious Revolution of 1688, where the Dutch Prince
William "invaded" England and overthrew King James without firing a
shot. Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland tends to increase as
July 12 approaches, as it's commemorated by groups like the Protestant
Orange Institution.

The border across Ireland first appeared in 1921 as a result of the
British-Irish treaty that partitioned the island and ended the Irish
War of Independence, with the new borderline running across farms and
villages.

****
**** The beginning of 'The Troubles'
****


"The Troubles" began in 1969, when hostilities broke out in Northern
Ireland, and the border was reinforced with British Army watchtowers
and bomb-proof and mortar-proof inspection facilities. All of those
reinforcements were removed as a result of the 1998 Good Friday
Agreement, with a new power-sharing accord that was supposed to break
down some of the barriers between south and north, including the
physical barrier at the border.

The "Good Friday Agreement" has achieved almost mythic status among
politicians, and its terms were frequently cited during the Brexit
negotiations as inviolable, lest The Troubles begin again. The result
was the "frictionless border" between Ireland and Northern Ireland,
but instead there's a customs border between Northern Ireland and
England, and The Troubles seems to be starting again anyway.

There's a lot of finger-pointing now as to the cause of the new
violence, with many people blaming Boris Johnson for his "betrayal" of
the Northern Ireland loyalists. But from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, the revival of The Troubles is not surprising,
inasmuch as a full generation has passed since the Good Friday
agreement, and young kids are not going to care about a piece of paper
or an ancient agreement that was signed before many of them were even
born.

Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, The Troubles, Northern Ireland, Belfast,
Ireland, Republic of Ireland, England, Wales, Scotland,
European Union, Catholic, Protestant, Gaelics,
Nine Years War, Plantation of Ulster,
Williamite-Jacobite war, Battle of the Boyne, Glorious Revolution,
Good Friday Agreement

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I seem to recall someone mentioning that Ireland is in a 2T. Is that correct?
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