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Generational Dynamics World View
(02-08-2021, 12:13 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(02-08-2021, 05:27 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
Quote:We also note that Biden is ordering the army to "stand down" so that
"extremists" can be weeded out. To the Democrats, all 74 million Tea
Partiers and Trump supporters are extremists or cultists that need to
be "deprogrammed."

Millions of them are going to deprogram themselves as they realize that what the words seemed to mean was very different from what they meant.

John is one of those believers in lies.  I've been projecting that Trump would produce no evidence of voter fraud in his second impeachment when he will have as much reason as any to produce the evidence, but even if he doesn't John will still favor what he wants to believe over what there is evidence of.  Xenakis is just that intellectually bankrupt.

There is simply no legal defense of any contention that Trump got cheated out of an election. Official results sworn to on pain of perjury and achieved in accordance with state laws that must adhere to the Voting Rights Act (the federal legislation called for in the mandate clauses of the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments to the Constitution) are definitive whether the margin is six votes or sixty percent. State governments have done much to preclude double voting, voting in two different places, and the recognition of votes by those who die before Election Day. Tight rules about custody of voting materials and voting devices make manipulation of the vote nearly impossible. Forged ballots? The methods used for ensuring that fraudulent ballots cannot be counted are modeled after accounting controls that Big Business uses for cash and high-value items that could easily be sold after misappropriation. The only dirty characteristic of this election was COVID-19, which would have scared voters from voting in person about as effectively as would an armed militia that intimidates potential voters selectively. States had to accommodate the danger of voting in person at the polls. In my case (Michigan) the state gave people the option to use an absentee ballot without needing one of the usual excuses (which include being over 60, being away from the community for work, incapacity to vote at the polls for medical purposes, being a poll worker, or being in a jail lockup while awaiting trial or if incarcerated for a misdemeanor offense.   


Quote:Many of the extreme followers are just racist.  Note that most of the people who led the capitol insurrection were with the racist organizations.  They just would rather destroy democracy than let go of their hate.  Holding on to a racist presidency was worth it to them lest Biden reduce the immunity to murdering minorities and make it harder to suppress votes.

Freedom includes the freedom to be wrong. People are as free to be racists as they are to believe in a flat earth or that they can square a circle. We have always had racists, and nobody can be sure that they will go away. But even racists can see what is in their best interests. What is more dangerous is that those who harbor the authoritarian mindset that adulates a near-fascist leader, accepts conspiracy theories as truth irrespective of their lack of validity, considers force acceptable in choosing the results of elections, attacks lawful authority that gets in the way of its desires, and sees blind loyalty to its chosen idols as the sole expression of patriotism. The Confederate banners and Trump flags did not belong in the Capitol building. What one cannot do is overt crime, like attacking Capitol police, disrupting a lawful session of Congress, putting members of the House and Senate and their staffers at risk, breaking into the Capitol itself (that is called burglary!), or either taking or exposing classified data. People who have never been in legal trouble before and now facing long prison sentences will talk to save their skins. Let us remember that killing federal police (which includes the Capitol police) is still a federal capital offense.

In the longer term we will need educational reforms, most obviously the expansion of liberal education that can ensure that people be less ignorant of economics, formal logic, psychology, probability and statistics, and the rhetorical techniques of deceit. If such was good for fighting Soviet-era Communism and good for gutting Jim Crow, then it should be good for defanging the authoritarian cult that is Trumpism. One can be a conservative without being a fascist just as one can be a liberal without being a Marxist-Leninist.     

Quote:I would hope it would be clear that Trump lied and your anticipated self deprogramming happened.  I will believe it when I see it.  There is still the hope that a small government scheme to not provided services to minority won't backfire to hurt the working poor as well, but the hurt is real and folks are starting to see reality.  If Biden makes a big dent in the problems which Trump ignored, we should be all right.

If you can't convince Archie Bunker, then perhaps you can convince his kids. The original idea behind the medieval university was to improve young men so that if they ever got responsibility they would handle it in accordance with moral standards instead of blatant, predatory self-interest. If they learned something along with the trivium and quadrivium... wonderful. In recent years we have made the training of youth to fit initial roles in a capitalist society the objective. We have not taught them how to think and how to seek meaning in life. The liberal arts taught youth how to think and how to seek meaning in life.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
** 08-Feb-2021 World View: Machine guns

(02-08-2021, 05:27 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Source, please!

The following link appears in the article under "Sources:":

Acting DHS Deputy Head During Capitol Riot Reveals Pelosi Demanded 'Machine Guns' to Be Deployed Against Civilians in DC (Western Journal, 23-Jan-2021)

(02-08-2021, 07:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > There is simply no legal defense of any contention that Trump got
> cheated out of an election.

I'm sorry, it's totally pointless to discuss this with you. You are
totally unqualified to make this statement, because you're totally
ignorant about what's going on, since you watch only highly censored
Stalinist news sources.

In his January 6 speech, Donald Trump gave a lengthy description
of the many examples of massive election fraud:

-- Donald Trump Speech “Save America” Rally Transcript January 6
https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/don...-january-6
(Rev.com, 6-Jan-2021)

(02-08-2021, 02:07 PM)David Horn Wrote: > That's actually a sniper rifle, not a machinegun.

Thanks for the correction. How about this one?

[Image: Improved_M249_Machine_Gun.jpg]
  • M249 light machine gun
Reply
(02-08-2021, 09:22 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 08-Feb-2021 World View: Machine guns

(02-08-2021, 05:27 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   Source, please!

The following link appears in the article under "Sources:":

Acting DHS Deputy Head During Capitol Riot Reveals Pelosi Demanded 'Machine Guns' to Be Deployed Against Civilians in DC (Western Journal, 23-Jan-2021)

(02-08-2021, 07:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   There is simply no legal defense of any contention that Trump got
>   cheated out of an election.

I'm sorry, it's totally pointless to discuss this with you.  You are
totally unqualified to make this statement, because you're totally
ignorant about what's going on, since you watch only highly censored
Stalinist news sources.

In his January 6 speech, Donald Trump gave a lengthy description
of the many examples of massive election fraud:

-- Donald Trump Speech “Save America” Rally Transcript January 6
https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/don...-january-6
(Rev.com, 6-Jan-2021)

(02-08-2021, 02:07 PM)David Horn Wrote: >  That's actually a sniper rifle, not a machinegun.

Thanks for the correction.  How about this one?

[Image: Improved_M249_Machine_Gun.jpg]
  • M249 light machine gun

The Trump speech is more an example of a liar lying than anything else. It is certainly not evidence.

The weapon is not crew served.

Power, unlike you, has integrity. You will throw away lies in imitation of defending yourself with facts. Both of you are internet warriors, though you pretend feverishly to be a professional. You have too much of an ideological bias to pretend.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
Reply
Here is how Trump lost:

Here is analysis from one of Trump's pollsters on how 2020 really went. It is from December, and it subdivides the states that were within 10% of going to Hillary Clinton in 2016 that went to Trump. The states in question were those, and not others.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000177-...e8c950000S

A synopsis is in this cover article:

Former President Donald Trump has blamed the election results on unfounded claims of fraud and malfeasance. But at the top levels of his campaign, a detailed autopsy report that circulated among his political aides paints a far different — and more critical — portrait of what led to his defeat.

The post-mortem, a copy of which was obtained by POLITICO, says the former president suffered from voter perception that he wasn’t honest or trustworthy and that he was crushed by disapproval of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. And while Trump spread baseless accusations of ballot-stuffing in heavily Black cities, the report notes that he was done in by hemorrhaging support from white voters.


The 27-page report, which was written by Trump chief pollster Tony Fabrizio, shows how Trump advisers were privately reckoning with his loss even as the former president and many of his supporters engaged in a conspiracy theory-fueled effort to overturn the election. The autopsy was completed in December 2020 and distributed to Trump’s top political advisers just before President Joe Biden’s Jan. 20 inauguration.


It is unclear if Trump has seen the report.

The findings are based on an analysis of exit polling in 10 states. Five of them — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — are states that Trump lost after winning them in 2016. The other five — Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — are states that Trump won in both elections.

The report zeroes in on an array of demographics where Trump suffered decisive reversals in 2020, including among white seniors, the same group that helped to propel him to the White House. The autopsy says that Trump saw the “greatest erosion with white voters, particularly white men,” and that he “lost ground with almost every age group.” In the five states that flipped to Biden, Trump’s biggest drop-off was among voters aged 18-29 and 65 and older.

Suburbanites — who bolted from Trump after 2016 — also played a major role. The report says that the former president suffered a “double-digit erosion” with “White College educated voters across the board.”

The picture of the election presented in the report is widely shared by political professionals in both parties, if not by Trump and his legions of his supporters. Trump never offered a concession to Biden, and up until his final days in office, he clung to the debunked idea that the election had been stolen.

Fabrizio declined to comment on the post-mortem. A Trump spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump’s personal behavior, the autopsy makes clear, contributed to his defeat. “Biden had a clear edge over POTUS on being seen as honest & trustworthy,” Fabrizio writes.

Trump’s response to the pandemic was also critical. The autopsy says that coronavirus registered as the top issue among voters, and that Biden won those voters by a nearly 3-to-1 margin. A majority registered disapproval of Trump’s handling of the virus.

Most voters said they prioritized battling the coronavirus over reopening the economy, even as the president put a firm emphasis on the latter. And roughly 75 percent of voters — most of whom favored Biden — said they favored public mask-wearing mandates.

The report also indirectly raises questions about the reelection campaign’s decision to pause advertising on TV over the summer and save resources until the fall. According to the findings, nearly 9-in-10 voters had made up their minds about whom to support by the final month of the race.

Fabrizio isn’t the only Trump adviser who has presented a post-mortem since Nov. 3. John McLaughlin, another Trump pollster, published a report on the conservative Newsmax website the week after the election.

Meanwhile, advisers to former Vice President Mike Pence brought in multiple pollsters to brief him on their conclusions after the election, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Among the takeaways was that Trump was gaining during the final weeks of the race and that his rallies had helped propel Republicans running in House and Senate races. But the pollsters also made clear that while there was substantial support for Trump’s policies, there was widespread exhaustion with the president.

Within Trump’s inner circle, Fabrizio had long espoused the belief that Trump needed to prioritize the pandemic in order to win reelection. Last summer, he penned a 79-page memo arguing that Trump needed to focus first on dealing with the pandemic rather than reopening the economy and recommending, among other things, that he should have been encouraging people to wear masks rather than mocking the practice.


https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/01...eat-464636

Comment:

So this explains why Trump could lose the Presidential election while Republicans did well in gaining House seats and (until the two Senate run-offs in Georgia) holding onto the Senate majority. This analysis comes before Warnock and Ossoff defeated Republican US Senate incumbents in Georgia.

Trump did surprisingly well among Hispanics, who weren't as strongly D as usual. To be sure, the Hispanics in Florida are heavily Cuban-Americans who have a very different political heritage than do the largely Mexican-Americans in Arizona.  He lost heavily among those who saw his personal integrity in doubt, which was much more among college-educated white people in 2020 than in 2016.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
** 15-Feb-2021 World View: Myanmar / Burma - Violence escalates further

[Image: 4080.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=forma...d7f8fb0c3e]
  • Tanks of the streets of Yangon during rush hour on Monday (Guardian)


The army in Myanmar / Burma is escalating its operations to try to
bring anti-army protests to an end. The protests began with the army
coup on February 1, when the sainted leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her
government officials were arrested for reasons still not fully
understood, and were replaced by an army junta. Protesters are
demanding that she be released, and that democracy be restored.

The army had hoped that the protests would fizzle quickly, but they've
continued. In Yangon, the protests are at the Chinese Embassy, as the
protesters accuse China of backing the protests. (The Chinese
Communists consider democracy to be a "poison," so the protesters are
probably right.)

Security forces have begun targeting peaceful protesters with rubber
bullets in Yangon, Mandalay, and other cities according to reports.
Tanks have been filling the streets, and in Yangon, eight-wheeled
armoured vehicles have been seen trying to navigate the rush-hour
traffic, sometimes surrounded by cars honking their opposition to the
coup.

The army shut down the internet across the country on Sunday for eight
hours, but finally restored it.

It's believed that the army is building up to massive bloody violence
against protesters, such as it used in 2007 and 1988.

However, they may be reluctant because of international pressure from
the UN, US, EU and other nations. Furthermore, the Biden
administration is threatening sanctions that would target the
international business dealings of the army generals, and that threat
may temporarily delay further escalation of violence.

However, according to some reports, the security forces may be
planning a new tactic. The army has pardoned 23,000 prison inmates,
and the reports indicate that they have been exhibiting "thuggish
behavior" late at night to create community disturbances. Many
neighborhoods have formed night-time vigilante groups to deter these
thugs, who are rumored to have been dispatched by the army junta.

This is quite believable, since it's part of the standard playbook
used by government officials before a violent crackdown. The
government provokes some kind of violent incident, then uses that
violent incident to declare that all the peaceful protesters are
really "domestic terrorists," so that violence against them can be
justified. See:

** 12-Jan-21 World View -- America and the standard Genocide Playbook
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210112



This is the same playbook used by Burma against the Rohingyas and by
China against the Uighurs. So if these reports are correct, then we
can expect to see a lot more violence in the next few days.


---- Sources:

-- Myanmar: troops and police forcefully disperse marchers in Mandalay
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/f...an-suu-kyi
(Guardian, London, 15-Feb-2021)

-- Myanmar coup: Protesters face up to 20 years in prison under new
law
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56067423
(BBC, 15-Feb-2021)

-- Tycoons Close to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi Interrogated by Myanmar
Military
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/tyc...itary.html
(The Irrawaddy, Burma, 15-Feb-2021)

-- Myanmar Vigilante Groups Formed to Handle Night Thugs A vigilante
group patrols in a Yangon neighborhood.
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/mya...thugs.html
(The Irrawaddy, Burma, 14-Feb-2021)

-- Myanmar security forces intensify crackdown on protesters
https://apnews.com/article/aung-san-suu-...2ff6827978
(AP, 15-Feb-2021)

-- Aung San Suu Kyi detention extended
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...2003752334
(Taipei Times, 16-Feb-2021)

-- US sanctions on Myanmar: 5 things to know
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanma...gs-to-know
(Nikkei, 12-Feb-2021)


---- Related articles:

** 12-Jan-21 World View -- America and the standard Genocide Playbook
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210112



** 8-Feb-21 World View -- Violence feared in Myanmar/Burma as pro-democracy protests grow -- Similarity between Burma and Washington DC
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210208



** 2-Feb-21 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210202
Reply
** 16-Feb-2021 World View: Review of my book on Vietnam

I am requesting members of this forum to review the current draft of
my book on Vietnam, and post any questions or comments or corrections
you may have.

http://jxenakis.com/pg/ww2010.vnbk.gx113.htm

It's a big job, but I promise you that it will be worthwhile, because
you'll learn a great deal not only about Vietnam and Buddhism, but
also about America and Generational Dynamics.

If you refer to a section of the book, then please provide the section
title as well as the section number, since the section numbers are
subject to change.

The draft is now 98% complete. There are still sections that need
completion and/or revision, so there will be changes.

Thanks, John
Reply
** 16-Feb-2021 World View: Book cover

The following is the book cover as it currently stands:

[Image: vnbk1000-210216.jpg]

So I have no color coordination skills, so I'm looking for suggestions
for colors.

The colors that I chose -- purple and blue -- are based on the
following that I found on a web site:

Basic Vietnamese Color Meanings
* Red – happiness, love, luck, celebration
* Yellow – wealth, prosperity, royalty, happiness, change
* Green – jealousy, lust
* Blue – calmness, hope, growth
* Purple – nostalgia, sadness, fragility, tenderness
* White – purity, death, the end
* Black – evil

The red rectangle with the yellow star is the Vietnamese flag.

The picture is a port in the Mekong Delta near Saigon.

I might have used red and yellow for the entire cover, rather than
purple and blue, but those are the colors that I used on my China
book.

Suggestions for improving the cover text, including the entire book
title and subtitle, are also welcome.

For comparison purposes, here are the covers of my Iran and China books:

[Image: irbk1000.jpg]

[Image: scbk1000.jpg]
Reply
I'd vote for dark blue on yellow, or red on yellow, or maybe dark red brown on yellow.
Reply
** 17-Feb-2021 World View: Purple on yellow

(02-16-2021, 09:49 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I'd vote for dark blue on yellow, or red on yellow, or maybe dark
> red brown on yellow.

After some discussion, the current candidate is purple lettering on
yellow, which is very similar to your suggestion:

[Image: vnbk1000-210216d.jpg]
Reply
That definitely looks better than blue on blue!
Reply
*** 19-Feb-21 World View -- Afghanistan prepares for war, as Nato postpones military withdrawal decision

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Afghanistan prepares for war, as Nato postpones military withdrawal decision
  • Nato postpones decision to withdraw forces from Afghanistan
  • Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
  • Book on history of Vietnam nearing publication

****
**** Afghanistan prepares for war, as Nato postpones military withdrawal decision
****


[Image: g210218b.jpg]
Feb 29 2020 signing ceremony for US-Taliban peace agreement (Tolo News)

On Thursday, Nato defense ministers met in Brussels and decided to
postpone the planned withdrawal of Nato troops, previously scheduled
for May 1. The Taliban have threatened that unless the troops are
withdrawn, then there will be a major escalation in the Taliban's
spring fighting season, and indeed the violence is already increasing.

In Afghanistan, the Taliban are poised to return to power in
Afghanistan, either through negotiations or through a renewed civil
war, after they had been removed from power by the United States in
2001, after the 9/11 attacks.

In 2009 I wrote, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis summarized
below, that peace was impossible in Afghanistan, no matter how many
troops the US and Nato sent there, which means that the Taliban would
return to power if American troops withdrew. That prediction is being
proven true once again, and we now appear close to a historic
dénouement.

In February 2020, the Donald Trump administration reached a delusional
agreement with the Taliban to bring a new era of peace to Afghanistan.
America and Nato would remove all its troops by May of this year and,
in return, the Taliban would stop funding al-Qaeda and would sever
all its ties to al-Qaeda. The Taliban didn't promise to stop violence
altogether, but did promise to "tone down" the violence.

As part of the agreement, peace talks took place between America
and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar. These peace talks were also completely
delusional. The Afghan government weren't in the talks. And NATO,
which also has troops in Afghanistan, weren't in the talks. In fact,
the entire "peace process" has always been delusional.

Trump removed all but 2,500 troops from Afghanistan, and had every
intention of removing all troops by May 1, but Joe Biden has promised
to review that decision. But what happens now is now a Brussels
decision rather than a Washington decision.

****
**** Nato postpones decision to withdraw forces from Afghanistan
****


Nato still has 10,000 troops in Afghanistan, and they were
scheduled to leave by May 1 as well. It's clear that's not
happening, simply from the fact that they haven't yet
"started packing."

BBC's Lyse Doucet interviewed Nato's Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday.
Parts of what he said were hopeful but delusional, but in other parts
he conceded that the hopeful parts were not going to happen.

The Taliban are claiming that they've met their commitments to reduce
violence and end ties with international terrorists. However,
violence has been increasing, not decreasing. Furthermore, a UN panel
headed by Edmund Fitton-Brown has found that "There is still clearly a
close relationship between Al Qaeda and the Taliban. We believe that
the top leadership of Al Qaeda is still under Taliban protection."

The Taliban are promising a major escalation of violence unless
the US and Nato troops withdraw by May 1. Since it's clear
that the troops will not withdraw by May 1, it's clear that a
major escalation in fighting will begin in the new spring
fighting season.

Here is what Stoltenberg said in the interview (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"So we really believe that this not the time to make a
final decision, because we'd like to give every chance to the
peace process, the peace talks, to succeed.

Those talks are fragile and difficult, there is no easy option in
Afghanistan, but there is still a possibility to reach a lasting
political agreement, and all parties should engage in those talks,
and the Taliban must reduce violence and must negotiate in good
faith, and they must stop cooperating with the international
terrorists.

And by doing that, they will also provide the platform to find a
political solution.

[Question: So you may be in Afghanistan for many years go come?]

Absolutely, as I said, there are no easy options in Afghanistan,
and we face many difficult dilemmas. If we decide to stay beyond
May 1, then we risk more violence against our troops, and of
course we risk continued long-term involvement in a very difficult
operation in Afghanistan. But if we leave, we risk that
Afghanistan once again becomes a safe haven for international
terrorists, planning attacks against our own countries as we saw
on 9/11 and also losing all the gains we made on human rights,
especially for women over last years.

So this is difficult. That's the reason at this stage why we
believe this is not the right time to make a final decision on
whether we leave or stay, but continue to support the efforts to
re-energize the peace talks.

[Question: The Taliban say they have kept their commitments. Do
you believe you have solid evidence that they have not cut there
ties with al-Qaeda, that there is still a risk that Afghanistan
could once again be a safe haven to launch attacks against Europe
and the United States?]

What we have seen is an increase in violence, not a decrease in
violence. We have seen that the peace talks are almost stopped,
there is hardly any progress at all.

And the Taliban has to do more and they have to live up to their
commitments especially related to counterterrorism, break ties
with terrorist groups."<END QUOTE>


According to Doucet, this is so far the worst Taliban fighting season
ever, and it will get worse when the snow melts. In fact there's been
so little snow this winter, the doctors in the National Police
Hospital said that they had never seen so many casualties from so many
provinces at this time of year.

So the delusional parts of Stoltenberg's interview are when he says,
"we'd like to give every chance to the peace process, the peace talks,
to succeed." That's delusional because there is zero probability that
the peace talks will succeed, since the Taliban are committed to them
not succeeding, and are using the peace talks as a ploy to get the
Nato forces to withdraw, so that the Taliban can overrun Kabul and
resume the control they had before they were ejected by American
forces after 9/11/2001.

According to a European diplomat: "This war is not winnable, but Nato
cannot allow itself to lose it pitifully." That's the choice facing
Nato right now.

And so the war will go on and be substantially escalated again
when the Taliban's spring fighting season begins in earnest.

****
**** Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
****


I've written many times that, based on a Generational Dynamics
analysis, there is no possibility whatsoever of a successful
peace agreement. I started writing about this in 2009, when
I predicted that Barack Obama's "surge" into Afghanistan would fail.
That prediction has been 100% correct so far.

The following is a summary of the Generational Dynamics analysis:

Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody,
horrific civil war, in 1991-96. The war was a civil war, fought
between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern
Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The
Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign
fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in
Pakistan.

Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan
are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have
scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the
Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have
fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings,
dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side
performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they
have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill
each other.

So when Jens Stoltenberg says that Nato wants to give the peace
process a chance, he knows that statement is delusional, and the only
relevant statement is the one by the unnamed European diplomat: "This
war is not winnable, but Nato cannot allow itself to lose it
pitifully."

****
**** Book on history of Vietnam nearing publication
****


As regular readers know, I have been writing a book on the history of
Vietnam, to complement my previous books on the histories of Iran and
China. The book is nearing publication, and I now expect it to be
published on Amazon in March.

Here are the front and back book covers:

[Image: vnbk620bb.jpg]
Front and back covers of forthcoming book on history of Vietnam

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/

John Xenakis is author of: "Generational Dynamics Anniversary Edition
- Forecasting America's Destiny", (Generational Theory Book Series,
Book 3), January 2020, Paperback: 359 pages, $14.99, https://www.amazon.com/Generational-Dyna...732738629/

Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Doha, Qatar,
Nato, Brussels, Parliamentary Assembly,
Lyce Doucet, Jens Stoltenberg, Edmund Fitton-Brown,
Pashtuns, Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Northern Alliance,
Vietnam, Buddhism, Vietnam War

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John J. Xenakis
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Reply
I've only had time to skim the book, but I couldn't find anything directly laying out the generational era for Vietnam. If it's not in there, I think it would be useful, particularly regarding when their third turning ends.

On another note, I think subsaharan Africa is entering a third turning? As the third turning is an excellent time for outside investment, a book on subsaharan Africa might be of interest to some of your readers.
Reply
** 28-Feb-2021 World View: Vietnam generational timeline

(02-26-2021, 01:05 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I've only had time to skim the book, but I couldn't find anything
> directly laying out the generational era for Vietnam. If it's not
> in there, I think it would be useful, particularly regarding when
> their third turning ends.

After the "Vietnam War" ended and America withdrew in 1975, the real
war began. That was the war that idiots like Jane Fonda and John
Kerry wanted to pretend never even occurred. The NY Times wrote,
"It's difficult to imagine how their lives could be anything but
better with the Americans gone." The headline was, "Indochina without
Americans: For Most a Better Life."

The North Vietnamese Communists slaughtered thousands of people in
South Vietnam, and sent hundreds of thousands to "re-education camps,"
where they were tortured and beaten and forced to memorize Communist
propaganda. The Communists particularly slaughtered Catholics. The
Communists went into Laos and committed genocide against the Hmong
ethnic group, whom they had hated for centuries. In Cambodia, Pol Pot
slaughtered millions of people in the "Killing Fields" genocide that
Jane Fonda said she would never criticize, whose purpose was to create
a new "master race." Then the Vietnamese Communists invaded Cambodia,
and attacked the Khmers, whom they'd hated for centuries. The Chinese
Communists invaded Vietnam, to "teach them a lesson." Although the
war continued until 1989, I believe it climaxed around 1980.

So that was the war that you won't read about because the
leftist antiwar assholes at the NY Times and other mainstream
media want you to believe that life was wonderful after the
Americans left.

So if the war climaxed in 1980, then Vietnam today would be at
the beginning of an Unraveling era.

(02-26-2021, 01:05 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > On another note, I think subsaharan Africa is entering a third
> turning? As the third turning is an excellent time for outside
> investment, a book on subsaharan Africa might be of interest to
> some of your readers.

I dunno. When I've written about Africa in the past, it's
turned out that there are almost no historical records prior
to 1850 or so.
Reply
*** 6-Mar-21 World View -- Violence escalates dangerously in Myanmar / Burma

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Violence escalates dangerously in Myanmar / Burma
  • International community calls for sanctions to end the violence
  • Ethnic Burmans vs the other ethnic groups
  • Generational analysis of crisis in Myanmar / Burma
  • Consequences of a new Burma civil war

****
**** Violence escalates dangerously in Myanmar / Burma
****


[Image: g210305b.jpg]
Protesters set up a street blockade in Mandalay, Myanmar (AP)

Last Sunday (February 28) was a major turning point in the violence in
Myanmar / Burma, when the army security forces began using lethal
force and adopted a shoot-to-kill policy, killing peaceful protesters
for the first time. The protests were the largest that Myanmar has
seen since 2007. They began when the iconic leader Aung San Suu Kyi
was arrested on Jan 28, along with her government ministers. (See
"2-Feb-21 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials"
)

Up till last Sunday, the army had been using non-lethal tactics,
including tear gas and rubber bullets. But on Sunday they began using
live ammunition, and the level of violence has been increasing every
day since then. Dozens of protesters have been killed so far, and
thousands have been arrested, including 29 journalists.

Several analysts have said that the army is purposely increasing the
level of violence each day in order to break the back of the protests.
This tactic worked in 2007. Hundreds of activists and citizens were
shot dead or burned alive in government crematoriums. Thousands of
Buddhist monks, who led the protests to begin with, were gathered up
and detained. Some were found floating face down in rivers. The
protests finally fizzled when the violence became lethal enough.

However, there's a big difference in public mood between now and 2007.
Unlike then, the country today is in a generational Crisis era, and
so, unlike then, the mood of both the army and the protesters is not
to compromise. This means that it's unlikely the violence will
fizzle, and more likely that it will continue to escalate. The next
step for the army would be machine guns and assault rifles.

The fact that young, innocent people are being killed is infuriating
the protesters. There have been complaints of cruelty, even sadism,
by the security forces. There have been brutal attacks on innocent
medics, and all hospitals are closed in many cities.

The increase in lethal violence so far has not deterred the protesters
who remain defiant and, if anything, have been growing in numbers.
The protesters are wearing whatever protective equipment they can
find, like makeshift shields. Some are using satellite dishes as
shields, or are wearing helmets. They've tasted freedom in the last
few years, and they cannot tolerate a new dictatorship by military
junta.

Protesters are heavily using their mobile phones to publicize the
violence. Although it's dangerous to do so, they're filming the
violence and then loading the video onto twitter or live streaming it
onto facebook.

Probably the military junta has been most hurt by civil disobedience
and the national strikes by the banks, and even in the civil service,
by workers in health, education, labor, and immigration.

The army has used videos on Tiktok to threaten the protesters. A
typical video shows a soldier pointing a big gun at the camera and
saying that protesters will be shot dead. Tiktok claims that it has
removed most of those videos.

****
**** International community calls for sanctions to end the violence
****


The UN Security Council met on Friday and, not surprisingly,
accomplished nothing. Any condemnation of the violence in Myanmar
will be vetoed by China and Russia, rather than risk having violence
in their own countries be condemned.

The US and UK are planning their own sanctions. There are planned
sanctions targeting the assets of the members of the military council
and imposing travel restrictions, as well as an arms embargo.

There is no chance that these sanctions will stop the military junta.

****
**** Ethnic Burmans vs the other ethnic groups
****


Both BBC and al-Jazeera have been interviewing people in Myanmar, and
they're describing a different situation than is portrayed by the
so-called "international community," as represented by the UN and
NGOs.

The international community has provided verbal condemnation that the
violence is unacceptable and must stop immediately, that peaceful
protests much be permitted, and that Aung San Suu Kyi must be released
from jail and returned as leader of the government. And if the
violence doesn't stop, the international community is threatening even
worse verbal condemnations, and possibly even to hold more meetings.

However, some reports have pointed out that although the Burmese mobs
support that solution, the ethnic minorities in Myanmar are opposed to
it. This opposition point of view was discussed at length by Khin Zaw
Win, a Burmese anti-government activist and journalist who was
imprisoned by the army from 1994-2005 for "seditious writings," and
who was interviewed on the BBC.

According to Khin, the ethnic minorities are opposed to Aung San Suu
Kyi because she was part of the government that discriminated against
minorities. Furthermore, she damaged herself deeply by becoming a
useful idiot and siding with the army when the army was conducting
genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Muslim Rohingys in Rakhine State,
even going so far as traveling to the Hague in December 2019 to defend
the Burmese army against charges of war crimes. It is an irony that
the army that she defended turned around and threw her under the bus,
arresting her and her entire government when she was no longer useful
to the army.

The Burmese majority and the ethnic minorities have been temporarily
united by the military coup and the resulting violence against
peaceful street protesters. However, they do not share a common
objective. What the ethnic minorities want is a new constitution,
with greater political autonomy and greater rights for ethnic
minorities. And nobody believes that solution is even remotely
possible.

****
**** Generational analysis of crisis in Myanmar / Burma
****


Burma's last two generational crisis wars (1886-91 and 1948-58) were
extremely bloody and violent civil wars involving multiple ethnic
groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter"
)

The October 2007 demonstrations occurred 49 years after the climax of
the last crisis war, during a generational Unraveling era. At that
time, there were many people in the army who had lived through the
1958 slaughter, and stopped short of trying to repeat it. Similarly,
the young people who protested in 2007 had parents who had lived
through the 1958 slaughter, and who held back their children from
going too far in risking their lives.

But since 2016, Burma has been in a generational Crisis era. The
people who had lived through the 1958 slaughter are gone or retired,
and have lost their influence. The younger generation of protesters
have no memory of the 1958 slaughter, and do not fear what's coming.

The current generation of people in the army also have no memory of
the 1958 slaughter. What they remember is the 2007 protests, and they
remember that those protests fizzled when the army began escalating
the violence.

The current protesters also remember the 2007 protests, and they
remember how the protesters at that time simply surrendered when they
didn't have to.

This is how a generational Crisis era is different from a generational
Unraveling era. Today, the army has no inhibitions against escalating
its violence, and the protesters have no inhibitions against
continuing to protest, even if some of them get killed. That makes it
unlikely that the current situation will simply fizzle.

The situation is further complicated by the ethnic minorities. The
1948-1958 crisis war was a civil war involving all the ethnic groups,
especially the Burmese, the Kachin and the Shan. The latter three
groups are currently aligned in their opposition to the army, but what
we are seeing are the first signs of a massive new ethnic civil war.

****
**** Consequences of a new Burma civil war
****


According to the Generational Dynamics analysis, the current clashes
are fairly likely to escalate into a full scale civil war, although
that is not a certainty. However, the current situation is so febrile
that even if some temporary truce is worked out -- and this would have
to include freeing Aung San Suu Kyi and her government -- then the
violence will resume again before long.

Arguably, the civil war already began in 2012, when the army began its
genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Muslim Rohingyas. The army
referred to the Rohingyas as "enemies of the state," but now the
ordinary Burmese people have also become "enemies of the state."

If the violence escalates into a full-scale civil war, it could affect
the entire region. There are now almost a million Rohingyas living in
filthy refugee camps just across the border in Bangladesh, and they're
looking for revenge. If there is a general breakdown in law and order
in Myanmar, then those Rohingya refugees may well cross back into
Myanmar and join the fighting. This could also bring Bangladesh
itself into the fighting.

The separatist Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has joined together with
the Shan ethnic group and other ethnic groups in northern Burma, along
the border with China, to form a "northern alliance" against Burma's
army. These groups have had occasional clashes with China's army
along the border inside China, and those clashes would probably
escalate if there is a civil war in Burma. In fact, China was heavily
involved in the crisis war that climaxed in 1958, and history will
certainly repeat itself, with China heavily involved in a new civil
war in Burma.

As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts a new
world war between the US and China, but does not predict the scenario
that will lead to that war. We've speculated that it may begin with a
Chinese invasion of Taiwan or Japan, or it may begin with a war
between India and Pakistan, or it may begin in the Mideast and spread
from there.

But here we see another possibility. If a massive civil war occurs in
Burma, and it spreads to involve China and Bangladesh, then it may
spread further to other countries in Central Asia, bringing in India
and Russia.

And so, Dear Reader, keep your eye on Myanmar / Burma. Even if you're
totally addicted to watching the political sewer in Washington, try to
avert you eyes every once in a while, if only for a few moments, to
see something that may affect the lives of you and your family more
than the latest lockdown.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Aung San Suu Kyi,
Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Burmans, Shan,
Kachin Independence Army, KIA

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Reply
Some years ago (I don't recall exactly how many) I mentioned a magazine article on the paleo 4T site. The article indicated that Vietnam was under going something of a religious revival. A religious revival based on Vietnamese traditions.

If Vietnam's last Crisis ended about 40-41 years ago, that would have given Vietnam enough time to complete two turnings. So, yes, it seems plausible that Vietnam might be, or will soon be, in early Unraveling.
Reply
If Burma's last Crisis ended in 1958, then that Crisis ended about 63 years ago. Kids who were old enough to grasp the violence then would be quite aged by now.
Reply
** 07-Mar-2021 World View: Tulipomania

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Quickly on the tulip bubble, which is the most embarrassing
> comparison these emotional hater posters put forth: The tulip
> thing was overstated, but even if you don't believe that, the nail
> in the coffin for the stupidity in comparison is that the "tulip
> bubble" - or any other bubble akin, lasted all of 1 year? Maybe
> 1.5. It didn't even bankrupt anyone, but it proved itself a
> bubble, yes.

Your description is completely untrue. The Tulipomania bubble lasted
for decades, and it bankrupted a lot of people.

I wrote about Tulipomania at length in my 2003 book on Generational
Dynamics. I was comparing the tech bubble to the bubble in "high
tech" tulips. Here's what I wrote at that time:

**** Tulipomania

By way of example, let's start with one of the most famous bubbles in
history. However, it occurred in Europe, not in America. It's the
first reasonably well-documented bubble in history, and it was called
"Tulip Mania" or "Tulipomania" -- because it had to do with the
pricing of Dutch tulips in the early 1600s. This bubble grew for
decades, but it only burst completely in 1637, just as France was
entering a major "world war" of that time, the Thirty Years' War.

It's almost hilarious to compare the Internet products of the 1990s
with tulips of the 1630s, but in fact, tulips were the high-tech
product in the Netherlands at that time.

Those were heady days in the Dutch Republic. Amsterdam was the major
gateway between London and Paris, and the city had benefited hugely
from having established Europe's first central bank in 1609, giving
Dutch merchants a big competitive advantage around the world. It was
still the biggest bank in Europe in the 1630s, and the whole of the
Netherlands was prosperous, not having yet been affected by the
Thirty Years War.

Tulips did not originate with the Dutch. The first bulbs had arrived
from Turkey only a few years earlier, in the late 1500s. By means of
breeding experiments, Dutch botanists were able to produce tulips
with spectacular colors. These tulips were sought by wealthy people,
and by 1624, one particularly spectacular bulb sold for the cost of a
small house.

Prices remained elevated for over another decade, and soon investors
from all over Europe began purchasing a kind of "Tulip future," a
certificate purchased in the fall which can be traded for a specific
actual tulip to be grown the following spring. In some ways, these
certificates were similar to "stock options" in the 1990s.

In 1636, speculation in tulip futures went through the roof, and on
February 3, 1637, the tulip market suddenly crashed, causing the
loss of enormous sums of money, even by ordinary people, including
many ordinary people in France and other countries.

A mood of retribution began immediately, and even the tulips
themselves suffered. Evrard Forstius, a professor of botany, became
so reviled by the mere sight of tulips that he attacked them with
sticks whenever he saw them! At this point, the Thirty Years
War enveloped all of Europe.
Reply
** 07-Mar-2021 World View: Collapse of civilization

Higgenbotham Wrote:Demarest once again.

Higgenbotham Wrote:
Higgenbotham Wrote:https://soundcloud.com/bloomberg-busines...s/odd-lots

Quote:25:06 Moderator: How quickly can it all collapse?

Arthur Demarest: Very quickly. It can happen very, very quickly. The
Maya Civilization was most spectacular at around 780 to 790, 785, and
by 810 it was just in pieces. 800 in a lot of places, so it can
happen really, really quickly. It's often happened slowly in one part
and then that reaches a critical point and then it just runs through
the whole system which is what happened also with the Maya.

The material you've posted from Arthur Demarest is very interesting,
but there's another side to it -- the recovery.

Let's take a relatively modern example, the German civilization. The
German nation was formed in the 1860s, and it reached its peak in
the 1930s. But like the Maya civilization it collapsed quickly.

By 1945, the German civilization was in pieces -- literally, since the
German nation had been split into four pieces. In 1945, all of
Germany's large cities and many midsized cities lay in ruins and
ashes. The allied bombs had been directed at civilians as well as
factories. Incendiary bombs had been used to devour people in flames.
Dresden was a particular target. Tens of millions of people were in
chaos, without homes, and barely with any hope of survival. So that
certainly fits Demarest's description of a civilization that had
collapsed.

But look what happened afterwards. Germany went through a Recovery Era,
and within 20 years was an economic powerhouse again. In 1991, East
and West Germany were reunited, and so you could almost say that German
civilization didn't collapse after all.

What Demarest is describing fits very well into the Generational Dynamics
template. A society or nation reaches a peak during the Unraveling
era or the first part of the Crisis era. Then a Regeneracy occurs,
and the society or nation goes into a full-scale crisis war.
A crisis war typically lasts around five years, and the losing side
can be destroyed very quickly, as Demarest says. But then there's
a Recovery Era and an Awakening Era, and before you know it, everything's
back the way it was.
Reply
** 07-Mar-2021 World View: Collapse of Roman Britain

tim Wrote:> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glKe9njOB24

> Roman Britain - The Work of Giants Crumbled

> If you start watching around 49:00 (though the entire video is
> worth watching), you can see what true collapse looks like.

> - central power collapse, the British people had to "look to their
> own defenses"

> - taxes stopped being collected

> - they stopped paying the administrators of the cities and trade
> routes

> - the previous professional military started taxing the civilians
> directly for protection. These groups grew into the basis of
> early medieval society

> - language was forgotten

> - people stopped being able to write

> - Britain's Roman cities fell into ruins. Cities abandoned.

> - Roman swords were found abandoned, dropped and left there. In
> this time a sword was what a mobile phone is today it would
> never be discarded.

> - "One day it seems, everyone just got up and left"

> - Tribal warlords some of which were officers in the former Roman
> army, moved in to the ruins and used them as private castles

> - trade at London's port stopped completely, suburbs were turned
> into farmland, people lacked the knowledge and will to rebuild.

> - Londons population drifted to the countryside and lived in
> primitive houses

> - Enclave of the ultra wealthy continued to live a Roman existence
> in a gated community. The decline was unstoppable and the rest of
> the city descended into chaos. People began to grow wheat in the
> middle of London. London was eventually deserted
> completely.

That's an amazing story.
Reply
** 07-Mar-2021 World View: After the war

Guest Wrote:> Tim has some good info, but personally, I don't know why anyone
> would want to survive a full blown nuclear war. It will take a
> hundred years to rebuild from one, if ever. Third world countries
> won't ever recover. I think Higge has a better outlook, survive a
> year and then decide if it is worth staying alive.

That's the wrong way of looking at it. I certainly wouldn't want to
live through a full blown nuclear war, but if you live through the war
and survive and come out the other end relatively unscathed, then in
many cases life could be quite good. There will be lots of work to do
to rebuild the world, and there will be lots of available chicks,
since usually more men than women are killed in war.

And it won't take a hundred years to rebuild. Within ten years,
things will already be looking pretty good, though primitive. After
another ten years the world will be pretty good.
Reply


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