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First Turning "purge"
#21
(11-15-2018, 07:53 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: We can say things will be purged, but actually nothing is gone forever and virtually everything gets revived in some way at some time or another, probably unfortunately.

Indeed I can predict a big, corrupt, doomed speculative boom much like those of the mid-1850s, mid-1930s, or Double-Zero decade somewhere between  2080 and 2095 culminating in a financial panic analogous to those of 1857, 1929, and 2008.  People who will have been beyond infancy in 2008 will then be largely out of public life. American political leadership of the time will be awful (basically permissiveness toward whatever the loudest shysters want, the shysters having convinced practically all politicians that they alone offer what is best for America), and the mass culture will be depraved and raucous.

No star cycle applies here; the extinction of the last prominent childhood memories of bad consequences of a  big, corrupt, speculative boom as the result of such a bubble will make such possible. Remember: blunders must first seduce.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#22
(11-15-2018, 10:47 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(11-15-2018, 07:53 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: We can say things will be purged, but actually nothing is gone forever and virtually everything gets revived in some way at some time or another, probably unfortunately.

Indeed I can predict a big, corrupt, doomed speculative boom much like those of the mid-1850s, mid-1930s, or Double-Zero decade somewhere between  2080 and 2095 culminating in a financial panic analogous to those of 1857, 1929, and 2008.  People who will have been beyond infancy in 2008 will then be largely out of public life. American political leadership of the time will be awful (basically permissiveness toward whatever the loudest shysters want, the shysters having convinced practically all politicians that they alone offer what is best for America), and the mass culture will be depraved and raucous.

No star cycle applies  here; the extinction of the last prominent childhood memories of bad consequences of a  big, corrupt, speculative boom as the result of such a bubble will make such possible. Remember: blunders must first seduce.

That's the saeculum fer ya. 

Remember that the star cycle is the same, and for the same reason; so it applies. I first came here in 1997 to make that point. One Uranus cycle = 83-84 years = 1 saeculum. 1 Neptune cycle = 165 = two saecula. 1 Pluto cycle = 248 = 3 saecula. Remember, we are approaching the USA's first Pluto return since King George was thrown out. That indicates something for the early-mid 2020s! It's a triple-reinforced long cosmic rhythm.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#23
is more interesting!
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#24
Yes, we can expect a speculative boom during the next 3T. The greedy won't let dusty old history get in their way. Others will be naive, and easy to con because they have no personal memories of such a period.

Michio Kaku (who's field is actually physics, not economics) described this cycle. He indicated that these speculative booms are spaced roughly a life time apart.
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#25
If television survives as a distinct medium, I expect mergers that will leave just a few channels. I expect them to survive due to sports....lots of sports. The most expensive thing that will be produced will be the news. Most everything else will be cheap to produce, such as cooking shows, talk shows, so called "Reality" shows, etc.

And tons of reruns of very old programs.
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#26
(04-12-2019, 11:59 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: If television survives as a distinct medium, I expect mergers that  will leave just a few channels.  I expect them to survive due to sports....lots of sports.  The most expensive thing that will be  produced will be the news.  Most everything else  will be cheap to produce, such as cooking shows, talk shows, so called "Reality" shows, etc.

And tons of reruns of very old programs.

Cable television is already obsolescent as a means of distributing programming. The digital subchannels are well suited to delivering programming -- mostly reruns of 'classic' television, but I would not be surprised to see old cable material appearing on them. The only advantage that cable TV has is in its ability to absorb costs that suppliers can impose, as with sports programming. If you wonder how major league sports teams can afford the astronomical salaries that they pay, then it is because of television and not the gate.

Cable news is mostly talk shows. Think of MSNBC or (ahem!) FoX Newspeak Channel.

Don't forget infomercials and shopping -- very low uses of television, but they don't need  high ratings. Likewise religion due to the missionary desires of many sects. These might not be what people want, but they are readily available.

C-SPAN is attractive, and it seems to be inexpensively produced. Nobody has to pay Congress to broadcast its sessions.

We need remember that most people have competition for cable in their existing video collections. A great movie from the past or recent bilge? I'll take the former, thank you.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#27
Infomercials and shopping-thanks for the reminder.

I had signed up for a so-called "bundle". I found that I pretty much preferred to be online. Seldom watched the cable channels. Didn't bother to install the land line (I already had a cell phone). When the contract expired, I cut the cable to save money.

So I expect old style television to be marginalized, if it survives. Hence, the need to be cheaply produced.
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#28
There is far more choice on line than over the Idiot Screen. But there are some things available only through cable television. I see objects capable of undercutting cable and even dish (which are about the same).
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#29
(04-12-2019, 02:28 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Infomercials and shopping-thanks for the reminder.

I had signed up for a so-called "bundle".  I found that I pretty much preferred to be online.  Seldom watched the cable channels.  Didn't bother to install the land line (I already had a cell phone).  When the contract expired, I cut the cable to save money.  

So I expect old style television to be marginalized, if it survives.  Hence, the need to be cheaply produced.

There will always be a market for so-called Premium programming.  That's what Netflix has used to get where they are, and it was and still is the lure used by the HBOs and Showtimes of the cable universe.  Any quality programming that is exclusive to a pay service will garner an audience.  Some, like Game of Thrones, will move into legendary status. Of course, sports is in the same category, since it's at its best when viewed in real-time, or close to it.  Expect more and greater diversity of that as well

I actually expect to see more not fewer high-quality scripted shows, greater sports diversity and many more inexpensive talking heads.  That's not a big change from today.  There will be a sorting, at some point, because there are only so many eyeballs t support the programming, whether ad-based or as a pay service.  We'll see how that falls-out in the next few years, but the programming will continue.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#30
(04-12-2019, 11:59 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: If television survives as a distinct medium, I expect mergers that  will leave just a few channels.  I expect them to survive due to sports....lots of sports.  The most expensive thing that will be  produced will be the news.  Most everything else  will be cheap to produce, such as cooking shows, talk shows, so called "Reality" shows, etc.

And tons of reruns of very old programs.

This describes broadcast TV already. I assume you think cable will follow suit, or has already. So then where are any quality programs to be found? Netflix? Streaming on the computer? Any reason to think the same trend would not happen there?

Is the failure of culture that we see, whether in our pop music, TV, internet, journalism, sensational movies, decline of reading, etc, a signal that our society has failed? Is it the inevitable failure of the extreme capitalist model that we follow? Wouldn't a better approach than total corporate control and culture made for the convenience of its owners create a better mass culture?

Today's tawdry level of culture may be unprecedented. Anywhere, or any time.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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