Election 2020

[Eric the Green]

I think we may all rue the day. She will never be elected president.

[pbrower2a]

She is a rule-of-law type, which makes her more appealing than many alternatives to conservatives against Trump. She is obviously being picked for ideological compatibility, which explains why Biden didn't pick someone from a state that the candidate might help flip.

[David Horn]

(08-11-2020, 03:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think we may all rue the day. She will never be elected president.

At the moment, that's secondary to putting the Trump Clown Show  on the cancelled list.  If she helps with that, I'm happy. More to the point, she's hard to assail as a radical lefty or a tyrannical law-and-order type, and she's basically a nice person.  I guess it goes without saying that she's an FOAK.

[Eric the Green]

(08-12-2020, 09:09 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-11-2020, 03:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think we may all rue the day. She will never be elected president.

At the moment, that's secondary to putting the Trump Clown Show  on the cancelled list.  If she helps with that, I'm happy. More to the point, she's hard to assail as a radical lefty or a tyrannical law-and-order type, and she's basically a nice person.  I guess it goes without saying that she's an FOAK.

I think putting the clown show off the air gets us 4 years, but does not get us through the 4T or provide us with a leader that we need for the next 8 years. So I am very unhappy. But I don't know what a FOAK is. Sorry, acronyms are not my strong suit.

[Eric the Green]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
August 12 poll averages

Swing states slightly better for Trump right now than a few weeks ago.

National Biden +8.4
Arizona Biden +3.6
Colorado Biden +13.2
Florida Biden +5.4
Georgia Trump +0.3
Iowa Trump +1.2
Michigan Biden +7.7
Minnesota Biden +5.6
Missouri Trump +5.3
Montana Trump +8.7
Nevada Biden +6.6
New Hampshire Biden +9.3
North Carolina Biden +1.8
Ohio Biden +0.6
Pennsylvania Biden +6.5
South Carolina Trump +6.2
Texas Trump +0.6
Utah Trump +11.1
Wisconsin Biden +7.2

[David Horn]

(08-12-2020, 02:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(08-12-2020, 09:09 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-11-2020, 03:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think we may all rue the day. She will never be elected president.

At the moment, that's secondary to putting the Trump Clown Show  on the cancelled list.  If she helps with that, I'm happy. More to the point, she's hard to assail as a radical lefty or a tyrannical law-and-order type, and she's basically a nice person.  I guess it goes without saying that she's an FOAK.

I think putting the clown show off the air gets us 4 years, but does not get us through the 4T or provide us with a leader that we need for the next 8 years. So I am very unhappy. But I don't know what a FOAK is. Sorry, acronyms are not my strong suit.

If you're right, and she's not electable, then a challenger will emerge from the roughly 100 Democrats aching for the job. The Progressive wing got stiffed in 2016 and steamrollered in 2020.  I don't see them being all kissy face nice if they see Kamala tanking ... or even if she's doing politically well, but is weak on moving policy forward.  Everyone knows now, if they didn't before, that this is the one time for a very long time, that real change is possible.

FOAK = First Of A Kind

[Eric the Green]

(08-12-2020, 04:24 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-12-2020, 02:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(08-12-2020, 09:09 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-11-2020, 03:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think we may all rue the day. She will never be elected president.

At the moment, that's secondary to putting the Trump Clown Show  on the cancelled list.  If she helps with that, I'm happy. More to the point, she's hard to assail as a radical lefty or a tyrannical law-and-order type, and she's basically a nice person.  I guess it goes without saying that she's an FOAK.

I think putting the clown show off the air gets us 4 years, but does not get us through the 4T or provide us with a leader that we need for the next 8 years. So I am very unhappy. But I don't know what a FOAK is. Sorry, acronyms are not my strong suit.

If you're right, and she's not electable, then a challenger will emerge from the roughly 100 Democrats aching for the job. The Progressive wing got stiffed in 2016 and steamrollered in 2020.  I don't see them being all kissy face nice if they see Kamala tanking ... or even if she's doing politically well, but is weak on moving policy forward.  Everyone knows now, if they didn't before, that this is the one time for a very long time, that real change is possible.

FOAK = First Of A Kind

Ah, OK. Never have seen that acronym. But then, that's not unusual for me.

Kamala is not electable because of her poor speaking style, most of all. And she is quite accommodating to the winds of power too.

Normally though, in primary races among Democrats, if the vice president or former vice president runs, (s)he gets the nomination. So, Kamala will be tough to beat in the primary. The odds are she would win it, and then lose in the general election.

If that happens in 2024, once again the Democrats will be cut off before they can really accomplish anything, as they have been for 40 years or more, and their accomplishments will all be reversed, as they have been for 40 years or more. The rest of the 4T will be a left rebellion or secession movement that will be squelched, and then the USA will fully assume banana republic or oligarchic authoritarian status in fairly short order.

I have reasons to be optimistic, but the Democrats and the voters keep making these huge mistakes. Biden just made a whopper! What does that say about his decision-making abilities going forward? Not much that's good.

[David Horn]

(08-12-2020, 05:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Kamala is not electable because of her poor speaking style, most of all. And she is quite accommodating to the winds of power too.

Normally though, in primary races among Democrats, if the vice president or former vice president runs, (s)he gets the nomination. So, Kamala will be tough to beat in the primary. The odds are she would win it, and then lose in the general election.

If that happens in 2024, once again the Democrats will be cut off before they can really accomplish anything, as they have been for 40 years or more, and their accomplishments will all be reversed, as they have been for 40 years or more. The rest of the 4T will be a left rebellion or secession movement that will be squelched, and then the USA will fully assume banana republic or oligarchic authoritarian status in fairly short order.

I have reasons to be optimistic, but the Democrats and the voters keep making these huge mistakes. Biden just made a whopper! What does that say about his decision-making abilities going forward? Not much that's good.

This is a year with far too many tides rising at once. Think about it. Joe Biden was dead in the water prior to the South Carolina primary and anointed as the chosen candidate of his party at its end. Yes, this year's events required a confirmation of the black community, but SC has never voted for a Democrat, yet, due to the arrival of the COVID pandemic, the SC voters got the de facto right to pick the candidate for the rest of us. That has nothing to do with T4T; the chosen one is a Silent. It merely shows how much variability there is in the political process.

Now, it has to play out. Biden, a committed centrist and neoliberal (Delaware is home to more banking and credit card companies than any other), chose another committed centrist, though probably not the neoliberal that Biden is himself. I agree that this is unhelpful, but beating Trump is a must regardless.

[pbrower2a]

At this point the bankers would be delighted to have an economy in which people can more easily get credit-card and installment payments and in which people would be more willing to splurge on credit purchases.

It would be optimal for my way of seeing things if people went back to the old way of pay-as-you-go, except perhaps on such things as mortgage loans and automobiles... which may be how things go in a 1T in which people save and businesses invest. Bankers make money either way, and the ones that have any competence will be able to make the adjustment.

... Should there be any evidence of ethnic or religious animus in his response to COVID-19, then America will have big decisions on what to do with him in the event that he receives an indictment by the Hague Tribunal.

[Eric the Green]

Biden going the affirmative action route limited his VP choices. In the short-run, it may help. In the long run, 4 years from now, it means an unskilled candidate has a leg up for the nomination, and therefore likely a Republican takeover after just 4 years of a centrist trying to fix a country that needs desperately to spend 8 years or more going further left.

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-13-2020, 12:58 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Biden going the affirmative action route limited his VP choices. In the short-run, it may help. In the long run, 4 years from now, it means an unskilled candidate has a leg up for the nomination, and therefore likely a Republican takeover after just 4 years of a centrist trying to fix a country that needs desperately to spend 8 years or more going further left.

Not sure of that analysis.  The conservatives seem to be split into three.  You have the Trump base which used to hold a good number of votes but are going down with Trump.  You have the establishment that has elitist ties and cannot get a candidate though the primaries without the base.  You have the Republican Voters Against Trump,  Lincoln Project and VoteVets who might have a vision of conservatives as they should have been, without the elitist or racist ties.

I am not sure if the fight for the remnants of the Republican Party will be successfully over in two or four years, or if the winner will have the clout it once had.  The progressives lost dominance in Nixon's time as there were more racist and wannabe elitist votes than worker and minority votes.  Granted it was close.  The see saw between parties was in great part trying to balance helping the workers against hurting minorities.  If you tried to do one, the people in the middle would vote for the other.  

That possibly is not true anymore.  COVID and Black Lives Matter could shift voters towards respecting the science, solving problems, and to remove systematic racism.  Maybe.  I hope.

Eventually the conservatives have the potential to resurface.  If nothing else, there will eventually be another unraveling.  The Democratic tendency to spend money to solve problems will eventually be overdone and the national mood will shift.  But in the meantime the Republicans have much regrouping to do.

[Eric the Green]

(08-13-2020, 01:21 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(08-13-2020, 12:58 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Biden going the affirmative action route limited his VP choices. In the short-run, it may help. In the long run, 4 years from now, it means an unskilled candidate has a leg up for the nomination, and therefore likely a Republican takeover after just 4 years of a centrist trying to fix a country that needs desperately to spend 8 years or more going further left.

Not sure of that analysis.  The conservatives seem to be split into three.  You have the Trump base which used to hold a good number of votes but are going down with Trump.  You have the establishment that has elitist ties and cannot get a candidate though the primaries without the base.  You have the Republican Voters Against Trump,  Lincoln Project and VoteVets who might have a vision of conservatives as they should have been, without the elitist or racist ties.

I am not sure if the fight for the remnants of the Republican Party will be successfully over in two or four years, or if the winner will have the clout it once had.  The progressives lost dominance in Nixon's time as there were more racist and wannabe elitist votes than worker and minority votes.  Granted it was close.  The see saw between parties was in great part trying to balance helping the workers against hurting minorities.  If you tried to do one, the people in the middle would vote for the other.  

That possibly is not true anymore.  COVID and Black Lives Matter could shift voters towards respecting the science, solving problems, and to remove systematic racism.  Maybe.  I hope.

Eventually the conservatives have the potential to resurface.  If nothing else, there will eventually be another unraveling.  The Democratic tendency to spend money to solve problems will eventually be overdone and the national mood will shift.  But in the meantime the Republicans have much regrouping to do.

The Lincoln Project and other non-trumpers do not amount to much as a percentage of the Republican voters. Trump commands well over 90% of his party and they are still enthusiastic about their dear leader. I would not distinguish too much between the trumpists and the "establishment." Trump represents the establishment, and the nonsense about his being a populist who appeals to the angry is just window dressing. I have very little confidence that the Republicans will regroup any time soon. They remain dedicated to their trickle-down economics and, whether in the closet or out, their racist prejudices and fears and their superstitions and conspiracy theories.

Shifts happen and the pendulum swings, whether deserved or not. That's the way things go. Conservatives find a leader or a slogan to deceive the people for a while. But with Harris on the ticket, the danger is great for another Republican resurgence just at the most decisive time in the history of the world, the year 2025. If no-one steps up who can be a great leader to challenge Harris, the results will be tragic to say the least. Another near-fascist Republican is likely to take over, because our 4T will NOT be over. Likely a he, perhaps Tom Cotton, he will be able to crush any left revolt and consolidate the oligarchy for generations. The USA will officially be a banana republic. It remains to be seen whether America will heed my warning, and for Democrats to choose another better leader in 2024. Or we are in real trouble again. And 2024 is tomorrow.

[Bob Butler 54]

A judge in Pennsylvania appointed by Trump ruled that the Republicans defending in a vote by mail case must show evidence of fraud or stop making claims that mail votes lead to fraud.

This is not the first case where a Trump case has been shot at by a Trump appointed judge.  I am wondering if a strict law as written conservative judge is an entirely bad idea.

[Eric the Green]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
August 14 poll averages

Swing states slightly better for Trump right now than a few weeks ago.

National Biden +8.5
Arizona Biden +3.6
Colorado Biden +13.3
Florida Biden +5.4
Georgia Trump +0.4
Iowa Trump +1.2
Kansas Trump +8.9
Michigan Biden +7.7
Minnesota Biden +5.6
Missouri Trump +5.3
Montana Trump +8.7
Nevada Biden +6.7
New Hampshire Biden +9.4
North Carolina Biden +1.7
Ohio Biden +0.6
Pennsylvania Biden +6.5
South Carolina Trump +6.3
Texas Trump +0.5
Utah Trump +11.0
Wisconsin Biden +7.1

The national poll average may influence how they are figuring their state averages.

Compared to 2016, after 3 and a half years of Trump in office, the polls have shifted only about 5 to 8 points nationally and in the key swing states. We don't know if this shift will hold until election day. If this margin holds, it doesn't seem like a "drubbing" on a scale that will force the Republicans to change their stripes, and they still have Tom Cotton in the wings to carry the ball.

If Harris is nominated in 2024, they will recover and Tom may become president. On the other hand, if Democrats decide to pick a winner, and the Republicans lose by an increasing amount, eventually a more moderate and stabilizing Republican candidate is possible. By the 1T, such a candidate might appeal. Sheldon Cox, the next governor of Utah, has a 15-2 rating on my scoring system. I heard him in a PBS interview and looked him up because I thought he came across as a leader, and not as a trumpist. So, if he gets a national profile, he may eventually rise to the occasion by the mid 2030s and bring his party back from the depths of the darkness it is lost in now.

[Bob Butler 54]

Another scenario. Do I Have this right? Can I daydream?

Trump has pretty much admitted to choking down the mail to make sure ballots will not be delivered and returned on time. This is a form of voting fraud. Is this a felony? Can a felon hold public office? Can the federal pardon power effect state laws? Does any state count voter fraud as a felony? There is a tradition that the president cannot be indicted by the federal Justice Department, but it is only a tradition not the law. Is it a law in all 50 states?

Is there any state in which any Trump scandal could make him a felon?

Could a jury of 12 and a state district attorney general willing to push a case in a hurry turn this whole election upside down? Could a judge file a petition stopping an ongoing crime?

It's a nice daydream anyway.

[Eric the Green]

Well, Judge Roberts just ruled that Trump's tax and financial records can be examined by the New York state attorney. I think it means he can be indicted by a state. Since states run elections, that might also apply to deliberate attempts to tamper with the mail through fraudulent orders by his postmaster general. I would think the states and the campaign could sue and get judges to require the US mail to process and deliver the mail. I don't see this in the works yet. Biden has a team of lawyers; I assume this might occur to them.

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-14-2020, 04:09 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Well, Judge Roberts just ruled that Trump's tax and financial records can be examined by the New York state attorney. I think it means he can be indicted by a state. Since states run elections, that might also apply to deliberate attempts to tamper with the mail through fraudulent orders by his postmaster general. I would think the states and the campaign could sue and get judges to require the US mail to process and deliver the mail. I don't see this in the works yet. Biden has a team of lawyers; I assume this might occur to them.

I begin to think that the office holing leaderships have not pursued criminal complaints against each other as they do not wish this to become a habit. You just trump up some imagined offense against anyone you don't like to remove him from the picture. Trump leaves not much choice, though. If he is so blatant in acting above the law, perhaps it is time for him to learn differently.

[pbrower2a]

I have seen polls giving Biden anything from a 6% to a 15% lead. The difference may be in sampling techniques or in the questions asked.

Trump cannot win if he is behind by 6% Figure that demographic change alone makes an electorate more D by about 1.5%, which if he did nothing to offset such by shoring up support by others or making inroads into the young-adult vote, would drop his vote to about 44.4%, and that would be a near-even shift nationally. He cannot win with that unless someone tries to take voters near the political center.

A bare Biden (270 to 290 electoral votes) win is on the the most pessimistic side that I can imagine (yes, 270 is possible with Clinton '16 + MI + PA + ME-02 + NE-02) for Biden, and the most optimistic that I can imagine is a scenario in which Biden wins everything that Hillary Clinton lost by less than 10%, which bars a further collapse of Trump support.

The calendar is President Trump's enemy.

[David Horn]

(08-13-2020, 02:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Lincoln Project and other non-trumpers do not amount to much as a percentage of the Republican voters. Trump commands well over 90% of his party and they are still enthusiastic about their dear leader. I would not distinguish too much between the trumpists and the "establishment." Trump represents the establishment, and the nonsense about his being a populist who appeals to the angry is just window dressing. I have very little confidence that the Republicans will regroup any time soon. They remain dedicated to their trickle-down economics and, whether in the closet or out, their racist prejudices and fears and their superstitions and conspiracy theories.

The GOP has always been a party of internal loyalists. The military is primarily Republican for that very reason. They tend to follow the orders of their clan, so 180 degree shifts in position are easily shrugged off. Yes, Trump is the current capo d' tutti capo of that mafia family. I'm not sure how permanent that is though.

Eric the Green Wrote:Shifts happen and the pendulum swings, whether deserved or not. That's the way things go. Conservatives find a leader or a slogan to deceive the people for a while. But with Harris on the ticket, the danger is great for another Republican resurgence just at the most decisive time in the history of the world, the year 2025. If no-one steps up who can be a great leader to challenge Harris, the results will be tragic to say the least. Another near-fascist Republican is likely to take over, because our 4T will NOT be over. Likely a he, perhaps Tom Cotton, he will be able to crush any left revolt and consolidate the oligarchy for generations. The USA will officially be a banana republic. It remains to be seen whether America will heed my warning, and for Democrats to choose another better leader in 2024. Or we are in real trouble again. And 2024 is tomorrow.

Unlike the GOPpers, Dems tend to be divisive at all times. If Biden-Harris is a bomb, or worse: a snoozer, someone will rise up to challenge. The Progressives are biting their collective tongues right now. In 4 years, I don't see that still being true. In fact, it may arrive on January 21st, 2021.

[Eric the Green]

(08-15-2020, 07:10 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-13-2020, 02:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Lincoln Project and other non-trumpers do not amount to much as a percentage of the Republican voters. Trump commands well over 90% of his party and they are still enthusiastic about their dear leader. I would not distinguish too much between the trumpists and the "establishment." Trump represents the establishment, and the nonsense about his being a populist who appeals to the angry is just window dressing. I have very little confidence that the Republicans will regroup any time soon. They remain dedicated to their trickle-down economics and, whether in the closet or out, their racist prejudices and fears and their superstitions and conspiracy theories.

The GOP has always been a party of internal loyalists.  The military is primarily Republican for that very reason.  They tend to follow the orders of their clan, so 180 degree shifts in position are easily shrugged off.  Yes, Trump is the current capo d' tutti capo of that mafia family.  I'm not sure how permanent that is though.  

Eric the Green Wrote:Shifts happen and the pendulum swings, whether deserved or not. That's the way things go. Conservatives find a leader or a slogan to deceive the people for a while. But with Harris on the ticket, the danger is great for another Republican resurgence just at the most decisive time in the history of the world, the year 2025. If no-one steps up who can be a great leader to challenge Harris, the results will be tragic to say the least. Another near-fascist Republican is likely to take over, because our 4T will NOT be over. Likely a he, perhaps Tom Cotton, he will be able to crush any left revolt and consolidate the oligarchy for generations. The USA will officially be a banana republic. It remains to be seen whether America will heed my warning, and for Democrats to choose another better leader in 2024. Or we are in real trouble again. And 2024 is tomorrow.

Unlike the GOPpers, Dems tend to be divisive at all times.  If Biden-Harris is a bomb, or worse: a snoozer, someone will rise up to challenge.  The Progressives are biting their collective tongues right now.  In 4 years, I don't see that still being true.  In fact, it may arrive on January 21st, 2021.

I'm sure of it. Whether it will prevail in actual elections remains to be seen.

And it depends on the quality and campaigning skill of the candidates, who actually gets elected. Some people are talking about AOC for president in 2024. I love her and support her work, but president? Democrats need to consider more carefully whom the independents and silent Democrats are likely to see as a leader, regardless of policies. My horoscope scores should be heeded. AOC doesn't measure up. She is just too small.

Kamala's score is 4-16. She is just not a very capable leader. People are not realizing this.