Election 2020

[Bob Butler 54]

CNN summarizes a Georgetown University bit on militias and polling places.  It is intended for if you see any attempt at intimidation to tell you what information to gather and whom to call.  Their central thesis is that it is illegal to operate as a militia in all 50 states.  

I took a very brief look at their MA page and the MA laws and they seem to have a point.  It is illegal to train with weapons or pseudo weapons.  Private groups do not have the authority to enforce the laws unless given authority by the state.  If the MA laws were strictly enforced, groups like the Proud Boys operating in MA could find themselves in trouble.  One gets the feeling that they are not generally enforced.

And this was not the old original intent.  There were no standing forces, these being seen as a threat to liberty, so the local militia or posse was often counted on to act as police.  Even at this point, you should have the right to carry an arm, and to wear a pseudo uniform could count as free speech.  I’m not sure if they attempted to enforce their laws how far they could get in the post individual right environment.

But while I’m for the right to own and carry arms, and certainly for free speech, combining the two into armed intimidation at the polling place turns sour real quick.  I am not sure the laws as put into place before the individual right was restored would stand modern scrutiny, but it seems well that somebody should put together a cheat sheet should voter intimidation be tried.

[pbrower2a]

The police are the legitimate authority, and they are usually too busy busting meth labs, nabbing DUI offenders, and interfering in violent family arguments to interfere in the electoral process. Few of us would want them interfering in the electoral process.

I trust that if anyone tried to intimidate voters with the aid of some unofficial militia the local police would tell members of such militia that they can go somewhere else on their own or go to jail in a squad car. State police would back that up. There is a reliable number for dispersing such a militia:

9-1-1

[pbrower2a]

(10-01-2020, 12:15 PM)Isoko Wrote: You know, the polls right now still favour Biden and if I'm honest I don't think they are really going to budge anymore at this point. But it still interests me on how accurate they are. How many people are saying "I'll vote for Biden" when they secretly plan to vote for Trump. Or who are the people they are asking.

If I am to be honest, I think if we narrow it down, thus really could be on a knife edge and I do predict that is what the result will be - a knife edge. So no I don't take the polls seriously because I remember at the exit poll for Brexit, they predicted a comfortable win for the remain side at like 10%. Even the prime minister at the time seemed relieved and was ready to party when early warning signs started to hit at 12am that something weird was happening.

That 7% lead for Biden is nothing. Never, ever trust the polls.

Of course a 7% lead is not enough should there be egregious fraud in the election such as hacking the vote, intimidating voters, fraud in transmission of the results, or an attempt to change the rules after the election is over. 

A 7% margin is about what Obama won by in 2008. I once posed a model in which Obama won all of the winner-take-all states that he did win and got to split the votes in proportion to votes received in the states that he lost, and such a model would have caused him to win about like LBJ in 1964. Doing it the other way? He loses. 

I expect our lame-duck President to claim that he lost due to fraud.Bigots like him see themselves as the best thing that ever happened to the people that they despise and will be unable to understand why such people rejected him. I recognize the legitimacy of fear in view of a 2016 election that did not go as most of us expected (long -shots win  at horse tracks all the time, but in a Presidential race they have only one chance to win every four years). If one goes to the horse-track and bets on horses, one has little time in which to rue one's loss and an opportunity to make another bet. The thrill will be back soon. 

If one is an intense partisan, one has two years in which to feel the sting of defeat after a House race, four years four years  to feel that sting after a Presidential election, and six years to rue the consequences of a Senate election. If you are a liberal and you live in Pennsylvania and despise Senator  Pat Toomey or if you live in Wisconsin you have two more years to fume about Senator Ron Johnson, neither of which is even close to being a moderate.

[David Horn]

(10-01-2020, 01:58 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: What he actually propose is yet to be seen, but the greater danger is that the Democrats flake out on reducing or eliminating the filibuster and packing the Court. Unless they take these bold and controversial steps, I don't see how much of his program or vision can be realized. The Republicans would block it all in the Senate, and if they throw out the filibuster it still would be contested in Trump's new Courts. The Democrats will have to be bolder and more radical than they are used to being if they are going to get anything done at all. Otherwise we are stuck in the same old stalemate that we have been stuck in for at least 40 years, bound to the Reagan neo-liberal philosophy.

The tone of the Biden Presidency, assuming there is one, will be set by the end of January 2021.  You're also correct that much of this is outside the President's purview.  It's with Congress.  Biden is a neoliberal of longstanding.  I'm less than happy with him, but he beats Trump by 1,000 miles.  I'm even less comfortable with the degree of Catholic influence in this government: Biden, Pelosi, and 7 of the Supreme Court Justices. It may be a subtle influence for some, but not all.  If truly radical actions are deferred, assume the worst.

[Isoko]

David, 

Good point to be made. Another thing I have considered is that there isn't the same wave of rebellious enthusiasm for Trump this time around like there was in 2016. In fact I would even say that Trump and his presidency reminds me of South Africa in 1994. Trump is basically the American equivalent of Terreblanche and his MAGA supporters are the equivalents of the Conservative party and AWB extremists. The only difference is Terreblanche never made it to the presidency of South Africa. 

As for MAGA itself, it will die out. The next election will be one of diversity. And continuing elections thereafter. 

Pbrower
I cannot honestly see Biden doing anything different in terms of governing. The rot is too entrenched in the American system. Obama found this out and so did Trump. Unless there is a major political revolution over there (which I doubt in the long term) I just see it being business as usual. I'm sorry but it's the truth.

[Bob Butler 54]

CNN has the Texas governor issuing an order that only one drop box is allowed per county in that sprawling state.

I can see that one going to the courts.

[Bob Butler 54]

The AP has two conservative callers trying to dissuade Michigan blacks from mail in voting.

[pbrower2a]

(10-01-2020, 07:50 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The AP has two conservative callers trying to dissuade Michigan blacks from mail in voting.

Michigan is not a nice state in which to be a prisoner. Few states are gloomier (a reference to climate -- one of the cloudiest in America), winters are cold and snowy and summers are hot and humid.  Of course, intimidation by mail is a federal offense, and (assuming a Biden win) there will be a crack-down. Joe Biden is apparently about as soft on crime as Barack Obama -- which means "do the time and do the time".

[Eric the Green]

(10-01-2020, 12:15 PM)Isoko Wrote: That 7% lead for Biden is nothing.

Well, how about an 8% lead?

2020 national polling averages Oct 1 11:20 PM EDT edit: 11:35 AM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

UPDATE: Right now, Biden's lead seems to be going back to what it was before the debate. More details later.

National Biden +8.2

Alaska Trump +4
Arizona Biden +3.6
Colorado Biden +10.8
Florida Biden +2.3
Georgia Biden +0.5
Iowa Trump +0.3
Kansas Trump +8.5
Louisiana Trump +10.3
Maine CD2 Biden +3.7
Michigan Biden +7.2
Minnesota Biden +9.2
Missouri Trump +6.2
Montana Trump +7.7
Nevada Biden +6.1
New Hampshire Biden +9.1
North Carolina Biden +1.3
Ohio Biden +1.4
Pennsylvania Biden +5.8
South Carolina Trump +5.7
Texas Trump +1.6
Virginia Biden +10.6
Wisconsin Biden +6.9

[Bob Butler 54]

(10-01-2020, 10:06 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(10-01-2020, 07:50 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The AP has two conservative callers trying to dissuade Michigan blacks from mail in voting.

Michigan is not a nice state in which to be a prisoner. Few states are gloomier (a reference to climate -- one of the cloudiest in America), winters are cold and snowy and summers are hot and humid.  Of course, intimidation by mail is a federal offense, and (assuming a Biden win) there will be a crack-down. Joe Biden is apparently about as soft on crime as Barack Obama -- which means "do the time and do the time".

Apparently and more importantly it is a state crime, which is important as I expect a wave of federal pardons.

[Eric the Green]

Trump tested positive for the coronavirus tonight, and Melania too. He may have gotten it from Hope Hicks. They were both wandering around without masks or social distancing, and may have affected a number of others. He had also gone to rallies where people were not wearing masks or socially distancing.

Who else did he infect, is being wondered about in TV reports. Did he infect his new Court nominee, who he met with in the last few days? Did some airborne viruses make it across the stage while he was yelling at Biden and Chris Wallace? Lots of tests are needed, and Trump will be quarantined in the White House for 2 weeks. He can still "run the country," although I am at a loss to imagine what that would be. Issuing destructive executive orders? Ordering lawsuits to stop mail-in ballots? Tweeting and golfing? Handling foreign affairs? What, to keep his oil friends in the Persian Gulf happy and flushed with weapons? What "foreign affairs" does he have anything to do with? Denigrating our allies?

The reporters were wondering what might happen if he is too sick to handle his job well. When has he ever done that? The country would be better run without him, the most unfit president ever. Vice President Pence is there, and if he gets sick, Nancy Pelosi will do fine until Biden can get elected. Assuming Trump remains too sick to oversee the derailing of democracy. Oh, we don't want him to be handicapped for that job, do we?

[Isoko]

Eric, 

If there is anything that has the potential to win Trump another turn, it is him catching the virus which is ironic in a weird way. The reason for this is that if you follow the public responses, there has been utter hatred from the opposition, hoping that he dies where as the average Joe has been more like "wow, this is disgusting, I wish the president well."

Biden has to come out and take off the attack dogs. He has tto denounce strongly the radical left. If he does that, he can safely win the white House. Its the only thing keeping him from securely reaching it.

[Bob Butler 54]

(10-02-2020, 04:22 AM)Isoko Wrote: Eric, 

If there is anything that has the potential to win Trump another turn, it is him catching the virus which is ironic in a weird way. The reason for this is that if you follow the public responses, there has been utter hatred from the opposition, hoping that he dies where as the average Joe has been more like "wow, this is disgusting, I wish the president well."

Biden has to come out and take off the attack dogs. He has tto denounce strongly the radical left. If he does that, he can safely win the white House. Its the only thing keeping him from securely reaching it.

Not sure.  Trump lied to the American people, caused a large numbers of deaths, for the sake of hanging on to personal power.  Now even trying to clinging to power could become empty.  Be acted on his own lies.  The case for respecting the medical science, for fixing the economy by making the people healthy, has got to be made.  That case might be best made now or sooner.

[pbrower2a]

(10-02-2020, 04:22 AM)Isoko Wrote: Eric, 

If there is anything that has the potential to win Trump another turn, it is him catching the virus which is ironic in a weird way. The reason for this is that if you follow the public responses, there has been utter hatred from the opposition, hoping that he dies where as the average Joe has been more like "wow, this is disgusting, I wish the president well."

Biden has to come out and take off the attack dogs. He has to denounce strongly the radical left. If he does that, he can safely win the white House. Its the only thing keeping him from securely reaching it.

The mass death from COVID-19 has shown the President a fool. COVID-19 is rarely a quick kill. Should Trump be doomed, then the election will be between Joe Biden and Mike Pence, for all practical purposes. 

In no way is it ironic that Donald Trump gets the virus. Many thought, more precisely, that the virus would get him. He did much wrong, promoting and appearing at super-spreader events. Maybe one can be lucky appearing where the virus is once or twice. Enough times drives the chances up. It's like STD's in practice: one fling might not hurt, but have fifty and you have a very high chance of getting it. 

Consider another proposition: drunk driving. The person who says "Ossifer, I only had a couple'a beersh" has probably had four (cops tell you that the cop can usually figure that the person has had twice as many as he says,  which fit me one time. Twice zero is of course zero. I was delirious from excess heat and thirst, and I seemed much more sober after I had a drink -- of water). Anyone who drives drunk denies the likelihood that a high BAC will greatly increase the chance of a collision.

[Bob Butler 54]

Just head that the presidential successon which lays out who gets the presidency beyond the VP, which starts with the Speaker of the House, has been questioned as to it's constitutionality. If it comes to that, there is apt to be a challenge. Thing is, if not the intent of the congress, what?

[David Horn]

(10-02-2020, 06:17 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Just head that the presidential succession which lays out who gets the presidency beyond the VP, which starts with the Speaker of the House, has been questioned as to it's constitutionality.  If it comes to that, there is apt to be a challenge.  Thing is, if not the intent of the congress, what?

Even a  6-3 RW court will have a problem stopping Pelosi assuming the office if it gets that far.

[Eric the Green]

It is wise to be cautious. Of course I am in the category of a Trump-hater. But it's too early to cheer his downfall. He is still at his desk doing his job, such as it is. He is a very robust and dominating guy, and his positive attitude will help him get through this. Boris Johnson and Bolsonaro, his fellow infected covid deniers and irresponsible, laissez-faire tyrants, have not died yet either. So we don't know if he will. Neither gloating nor panic over this is warranted; we don't know what's going to happen. What will the voters think? Will there be a sympathy vote, or even more concern that he may not be up to the task (which he wasn't to begin with)?

[Eric the Green]

Biden's standing fell back a bit post covid-diagnosis from his recent high point post-debate debacle.
Drops occurred in Ohio, Arizona, Iowa, Nevada, Texas and others. AZ has fallen to just above toss-up level for the first time in weeks. On the map below, Minnesota barely dropped back again from likely to leaning. Maine dropped barely below the 15% line from solid to likely. FL is getting more blue again while Texas gets more red again; still within toss-up territory.

Trump had gotten a boost just from being the president as the pandemic struck in March, but then dropped when he could not handle it. If his debate performance can be forgotten after his covid diagnosis, how long will good will last from the diagnosis?

Polling averages for Oct.2, 9 PM EDT, edited Oct.3, 6 PM EDT
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

National Biden +7.3

Alaska Trump +6
Arizona Biden +3.2
Colorado Biden +11.2
Florida Biden +2.7
Georgia Biden +0.4
Iowa Trump +1.6
Kansas Trump +7.9
Maine CD2 Biden +3.5
Michigan Biden +6.7
Minnesota Biden +8.9
Missouri Trump +6.6
Montana Trump +8.5
Nevada Biden +5.7
New Hampshire Biden +9.4
North Carolina Biden +1.3
Ohio Biden +0.5
Pennsylvania Biden +5.8
South Carolina Trump +5.8
Texas Trump +2.6
Virginia Biden +10.9
Wisconsin Biden +6.6

[Eric the Green]

It looks like Biden is recovering his post-debacle position today.

Polling averages for Oct.4, 1 PM EDT
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

National Biden +8

Alaska Trump +5.8
Arizona Biden +3.4
Colorado Biden +11.7
Florida Biden +2.9
Georgia Biden +0.6
Iowa Trump +1.4
Kansas Trump +7.7
Maine CD2 Biden +3.6
Michigan Biden +6.9
Minnesota Biden +9.1
Missouri Trump +6.4
Montana Trump +8.3
Nevada Biden +6
New Hampshire Biden +9.5
North Carolina Biden +1.4
Ohio Biden +0.7
Pennsylvania Biden +6.0
South Carolina Trump +5.7
Texas Trump +2.4
Virginia Biden +11.3
Wisconsin Biden +6.8


270towin polling averages, Oct.4
National Biden +8.8
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

Battleground states:
https://www.270towin.com/content/2020-pr...te-polling

Arizona Biden +2.6
Colorado Biden +10.6
Florida Biden +2
Georgia Biden +1.6
Iowa Trump +0.6
Michigan Biden +6.2
Minnesota Biden +8.4
Missouri Trump +5
Montana Trump +7
Nevada Biden +6.7
New Hampshire Biden +7
North Carolina Biden +0.8
Ohio Biden +2.2
Pennsylvania Biden +6.2
South Carolina Trump +5.7
Texas Trump +3
Virginia Biden +9.5
Wisconsin Biden +6.7




fivethirtyeight poll averages using 270towin interactive map:
Tossup (gray) +-0-3%, Biden (blue) Trump (red): leaning +3-9%, likely +9-15%, solid +15%

[pbrower2a]

Here, according to Nate Silver in The Signal and the Noise, are the probabilities of a Senate candidate winning (1998 to 2008) with a certain lead (1, 5, 10, and 20 points) at one year, six months, three months, one month, one week, and one day. Because statewide races for President are much like statewide races for the Senate -- with the qualification that Presidential nominees do not usually make appearances where they see themselves losing -- unless they really are losing nationwide. I see this as about as good an estimate of a Presidential nominee winning a state as anything, except that the chances of winning a long-shot (Hey -- Trump has a 2% chance of winning Illinois!) or of course the opposite are likely overstated. This assumes of course an active and competent campaign.  

Time to election  |1 point|5 points||10 points|20 points|
one day............. |...64%|....95%|.....99.7%|.99.999%|
one week........... |...60%|....89%|.......98%|...99.97%|
one month......... |...57%|....81%|.......95%|.....99.7%|
three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|
six months..........|...53%|....66%|.......79%|.......93%|
one year.............|....52%|...59%|.......67%|.......81%|



We are one month away from Election Day, so the line in boldface applies:

Time to election  |1 point|5 points||10 points|20 points|
one day............. |...64%|....95%|.....99.7%|.99.999%|
one week........... |...60%|....89%|.......98%|...99.97%|
one month......... |...57%|....81%|.......95%|.....99.7%|
three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|
six months..........|...53%|....66%|.......79%|.......93%|
one year.............|....52%|...59%|.......67%|.......81%|

Things are likely worse for Trump in states in which he has gone behind by 10% or more. But sticking to this model I can interpolate on a assumption that the probability rises in a linear fashion, which may itself be an understatement in much of the range. Arbitrarily I am going to treat any 15% lead one month away as giving either nominee a 99%+ chance of winning, and I am not going to make distinctions above 99%.

[table]