Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

One pollster, all fifty states and DC. September 2017. A bit more flattering for Trump than what I already have. There will be updates.

Polling data based upon Morning Consult, Note that this data is more flattering, on the whole, to President Trump than what I already had.

I now have restored electoral votes to the states on the approval map.




Trump disapproval, net negative and

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

44-49%
50-55%
56% or higher

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:




Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

First update: Quinnipiac, Virginia.

October 18, 2017

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-det...aseID=2493

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

                    LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                              WHITE......
                                                              COLLEGE DEG
                    Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No

Approve              35%    81%     4%    34%    40%    31%    36%    55%
Disapprove           62     15     96     65     57     67     63     41
DK/NA                 2      4      1      2      3      2      1      3

                    WHITE.....           Non-
                    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht

Approve              49%    38%    44%    14%
Disapprove           49     60     54     83
DK/NA                 2      2      2      3


Horrid numbers for President Trump, especially among people with college degrees, white women, and minorities.  This is probably the last poll that we get from Virginia before the gubernatorial election, and the Presidential approval is an afterthought in contrast to the gubernatorial election , where Northam (D) holds a 53-39 lead over Gillespie ®.  

This poll post-dates the data from Morning Consult, so I can update the polling maps.

This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.




Trump disapproval, net negative and

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

44-49%
50-55%
56% or higher

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:




Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

[pbrower2a]

The Armed Services speak.

Quote:President Donald Trump enjoys far stronger support among members of the military than the American public at large, according to the latest scientific Military Times poll.

Yet while Trump is especially popular among enlisted troops, officers have a much lower opinion of him.
And women and minorities in the ranks share similar skepticism.


Overall, about 44 percent of all troops surveyed in the Military Times poll have a favorable view of Trump, while roughly 40 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him. That’s a stark contrast to opinion polls of the general public, which have shown Trump’s popularity at less than 40 percent and an unfavorable rating as high as 56 percent.

Yet, the poll of more than 1,100 active-duty troops, conducted in September, shows a deep divide over service members’ opinions of the commander in chief, whose first nine months in office have been marked by military policies that have drawn both praise and concern from Pentagon leaders.

OK -- but here's trouble for the President:
 

Quote:While almost 48 percent of enlisted troops approve of Trump, only about 30 percent of officers say the same, the poll shows.When asked specifically about Trump’s handling of military policies, about 55 percent of all troops surveyed rated Trump’s policies as favorable, versus 26 percent unfavorable.

The poll was conducted before the latest controversy surrounding Trump’s handling of phone calls to the families of fallen service members.

Quote:Officer vs. Enlisted

Opinions on Trump, a controversial figure even within his own party, aren’t uniform throughout the services.
Enlisted service members are much more enamored with the president than officers. Almost half of all enlisted troops who responded to the survey said they have a favorable view of Trump. Among officers, it was less than one in three.
More than 53 percent of officers said they had an unfavorable view of the president.

Joseph Lobban, an intelligence soldier who retired last year as a sergeant first class, said the divide isn’t surprising.

“Enlisted people like a man who says what he means and would like to see the job done, no frills, no questions asked,” Lobban said. “From the way President Trump has presented himself, he has been that kind of person.”

For Lobban, Trump is an individual who speaks plainly and directly.

“That’s why I think enlisted people respect the man, because the man is set on his position and enforces it,” he said.

In contrast, one Navy lieutenant who asked to remain anonymous called Trump’s blunt talk distracting.
The Trump White House “seems extremely reactionary, verging on whimsical, when it comes to matters of international politics,” the Navy lieutenant said.

“They are also creating unnecessary division domestically and revisiting political battles that have already been settled and accepted, such as reinstating the transgender military ban.

One retired Air Force colonel, who similarly asked for anonymity, called the officer-enlisted split shocking.

“I never thought that you would have a disparity in the numbers like that,” he said.

He suspects that Trump’s unpredictability is both the source of enlisted troops’ attraction to him and officers’ reservations.

“When you have a hierarchy like we have within the military, part of it is that there is respect for the chain of command,” he said. “What Trump may offer is, it doesn’t matter. He’s just going to say whatever he wants to say, regardless of what the expected norms are for that position.”

Quote:Breaking down the numbers

The officer-enlisted divide wasn’t the only large split revealed by the poll.
Military men were much more likely to support Trump than women (47 percent favorable for men, 32 percent for women).
Non-white servicemembers were much more likely to oppose the president (51 percent unfavorable) than white troops (37 percent unfavorable).

Among the individual services, Trump is least popular among sailors (49 percent unfavorable) and most popular among Marines (59 percent favorable).

Retired Marine Maj. Ross Schellhaas said he thinks Trump’s style may better match with stereotypes of young Marine Corps members than the other services.

“I think those young people come from the more conservative regions of our nation and tend to vote that way,” said Schellhaas, an Iraq and Afghanistan vet.

But Carter also said that Marines may be influenced by Trump’s cabinet.
“That’s the Mattis effect,” Carter said.

Mattis is arguably the president’s most well-regarded appointee, and he is especially beloved in the Marine Corps, specifically, and the military at large.

More than 84 percent of troops said they had a favorable view of Mattis, a rare point of agreement among the diverse military communities.

Trump’s chief of staff, retired Marine Gen. John Kelly, was less well-known among poll respondents but still had a nearly 59 percent favorable rating from troops surveyed against a 7 percent unfavorability response.

Reporters Stephen Losey, Kyle Rempfer, Jeff Schogol and George Altman contributed to this story.

[pbrower2a]

Worth remembering: it is nearly impossible to be a commissioned officer without a college degree.

Also worth remembering: for a draft-dodger, Donald Trump has unusual respect for the military, falling short only of his respect for Big Business and the usual god of a pathological narcissist -- himself. In the end it might be the military that convinces him to step down for reasons of health or some other formulation.

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin, PPP, with much detail


Wisconsin

(1) was close to the margin of the Trump victory in 2016
(2) has a Republican Governor who is a darling of the Hard Right but a nemesis to liberals
(3) may portent political shifts in America in attitudes toward corporate power.

As we are reminded, all politics is ultimately local,  and this polling so indicates. I'm guessing that after seven years of Scott Walker as Governor, Wisconsinites might be tiring of his abrasive style and his solid support of Profit over All Else.

PPP. Note that most of the focus is on state issues.

Approval: President Donald Trump 40-52
Governor Scott Walker 43-49
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI) 35-51

2018 election for Governor: Walker 43, Democratic opponent 48

Lots of issues.


Have roads and highways gotten better or worse under Walker?

Better 20 Worse 38 Much the same 36

Schools

Better 17 Worse 48 Much the same 17

Incentives to Foxconn (big Walker effort)

Support 34 Oppose 41

Motivation of Foxconn deal

Good for Wisconsin 38  Political advantage 49

Will the Foxconn deal be good for Wisconsin -- do you have concerns that the concessions will hurt schools and the public universities, public health, and transportation?

Yes 55 No 24

Environmental concessions on behalf of Foxconn: Concerned or not

Yes 57 No 24

Pushes legal concerns for Foxconn concessions to the Wisconsin Supreme Court instead of to more local judges

Yes 54 No 26

Expansion of Medicaid (opposing Governor Walker)

Support 59 Oppose 21

Support or oppose a law allowing people with student loans to refinance their  loans?

Support 79  Oppose 9

Believe that Scott Walker is excessively supportive of President Trump?

Too supportive 44 Not enough 13 About Right 35

Should Congressional districts be determined by

Legislature and Governor 16

Independent non-partisan commission 63

............................................

My conclusion: Wisconsin voters have apparently tired of Governor Walker and his policies. Wisconsin is going to be one of the sharpest battlegrounds in 2018. Democrats will be wise to keep the focus on Governor Walker and his policies, and not on President Trump. Statewide issues, on which Governor Walker and Republican legislators will be vulnerable, will be far more important than national issues in Wisconsin.

Note also: it will be far easier for Wisconsin voters to vote against President Trump if Wisconsin has a Democratic governor who will not do dirty work for the President. Wisconsin will be a laboratory for undoing the damage that a governor similar to President Trump in ideology can do to a state ordinarily split nearly 50-50 in partisan identity.

Paul Ryan will probably be re-elected, assuming that his district is decidedly more R than the US or Wisconsin on the whole.

[Eric the Green]

It amazes me that wisconsin elected, re-elected and still gives 43% approval to probably the worst and most reactionary governor in America.

[pbrower2a]

Scott Walker has big money behind him, and that matters greatly. Still, money cannot itself rescue something terribly unpopular in a binary election. Scott Walker is a known commodity, someone that one praises to Olympus or that one discusses with words for which one instead sees punctuation marks.

How long does it take for people to tire of a combative, polarizing leader? Maybe it depends upon the results.

Wisconsin has been a laboratory for the right-wing agenda of making the common man suffer for out-of-state elites. That Rightist dream must be covered in glittering phrases, but those cannot hide the reality. Life will get worse.

Wisconsin is naturally a horrible place to live. About half of the state has a fire-and-ice climate with tropical summers and Russian winters. To find it tolerable one must live well. That means a high income based upon good preparation for skilled work, profitable farming, or successful small business. As I noted about Minnesota, people need good insulation in their houses, plenty of heating fuel for the winter, fat-rich food in the winter, and at least three seasonal wardrobes. None of that is cheap. But if one earns well, one can get a good edge.

That also means that one needs a solid education and (should things go wrong) a good welfare system. You will either need a good car to deal with the cold or really-good public transportation. To find some enjoyment in the summer you need good parks and recreation -- and a good environment. In view of the winters, you might want to have the funds to go to some place not as dreary in the winter.

After seven years of Walker people see the sacrifices and none of the rewards. Or they think that the rewards are going to the people who back the Governor and his legislative followers. After eleven years people will see life getting ragged.

Scott Walker is a portent of Donald Trump. One polling item is whether Wisconsin voters think that he has too much loyalty to the President.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, nationwide, October 27-29....before the three bombshell indictments. I doubt that a poll from next week will be as sympathetic for the President.


Support For Impeachment At Record High

Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s newest national poll finds a record level of support for impeaching Donald Trump. 49% of voters support impeaching him, to 41% who are opposed to doing so. This marks the 6th month in a row we’ve found a plurality of voters in favor of impeaching Trump, and it’s the closest we’ve found to a majority.  Trump’s approval rating has declined by a net 7 points in the last month. In September we found him at a -11 spread with 42% of voters approving of him to 53% who disapproved. Now he’s at -18 with 38% of voters approving of him to 56% who disapprove.

“Basically everything we poll on a monthly basis is at a record low point for Trump right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “His  approval rating, the number of voters who want to impeach him, his position against Democrats for 2020, and his hold over the Republican Party have never been weaker than we found in this month’s national survey.”

Trump claimed last week that he had accomplished more in 9 months than any President in American History, but only 25% of voters believe that claim to 66% who do not, although it’s a notable measure of the ‘Trump cult’ that 55% of those who voted for him do believe he’s the most accomplished to 32% who disagree. Voters actually put his first 9 months in a very different historical context- 49% already say they think he’s the worst President in American History, to 43% who dispute that notion. By a 54/40 margin voters wish Barack Obama was still President instead of Trump, and by a 48/42 spread they wish Hillary Clinton was in the White House rather than Trump.

Trump fares poorly on a number of metrics we tested in the poll. Only 37% of voters think he’s honest, to 56% who say he’s not. In fact a 52% majority come right out and say they think Trump is a liar, to 41% who disagree with that characterization. There are continued transparency concerns, with 60% of voters thinking he needs to release his tax returns to just 32% who don’t think it’s necessary for him to. And only 31% of voters think Trump has delivered on the core promise of his campaign to ‘Make America Great Again,’ to 60% who say he’s failed on that front.  

More here.

[pbrower2a]

Obviously I cannot include every poll. Some address issues. There are questions such as "which would you prefer -- a root canal or the re-election of Donald Trump" or "Which do you prefer -- Congress or heroin"? which have some value as entertainment, but really say little except to ridicule either the President or Congress.  I occasionally show a fresh polling map of the states (remember - the states elect  the President, and the people don't, as shown in 2000 and 2016) and discuss a state poll when it has other relevance.  National polls? I don;t show them except to show a trend or to subdivide public concerns by issue.

I have my theories, among them that approval is usually lower than the eventual voting result, as proved by the need of most politicians to campaign if they are to be re-elected.  Another is that although approval can be whittled away, disapproval is much more intractable.  Were I to give an early and cheap prediction of an electoral result three years from now, then I would estimate 100-DIS (DIS is the disapproval rating)  for the incumbent as the most likely result  with a floor of 40% in a binary election (Hoover 1932 at 39.65%, with lower figures for any election in which the incumbent faces a third-party nominee who gets 5%, which rules out the pitiable performance of Jimmy Carter in 1980). I can set a floor for a challenger at 37% (Landon 36.54% in 1936, McGovern at 37.52% in 1972) and a ceiling of 58% for a challenger (57.41%, FDR in 1932) and suggest DIS somewhere in between for a challenger when neither the usual floor or ceiling or floor applies.

Incumbents usually win re-election because

(1) they show why they won the last time -- an exception applies to appointed politicians -- and typically add 6-7% from approval to their vote share, presumably by campaigning against the usual challenger.

(2) they have achieved something, like (hopefully for them) popular legislation.

(3) they find fund-raising easier because they know the sources.    

(4) they have good advisors adept at the logistics of campaigning, scheduling, and advertising.

(5) unlike the challenger, they have not endured a knock-down, drag-out contest for the nomination, material of which gets used in negative campaigning as is common for challengers.

Open seats? Pay attention first to the nominating process.

That's what we have until we have plentiful one-on-one match-ups. I am not going to even try to predict who the Democratic nominee will be in 2020.

This applies to statewide races, particularly for Governor and US Senate. Basically a Presidential election is fifty statewide races,  one race for three electoral votes of one city (Washington, DC), and five House seats.  530 electoral votes come from statewide  at-large races for the states, and of the other eight, only two have ever alternated between R and D after 1988.  

So let us say that the President has a 42% approval rating nationwide. Does that mean that he will win Florida? No. I could make no conclusion. But if his disapproval rating is at 52% in Florida, then his campaign has about as much chance of winning there as a rabbit has of surviving an alligator attack.

  OK. Here's a nationwide poll: Washington Post/ABC.

Quote:A year after his surprise election victory, President Donald Trump is underperforming expectations and lagging behind his predecessors, with the lowest job approval of any postwar president at this point in office, broad distrust across a range of issues and majority belief that he’s not delivering on his campaign promises.

Yet for all his shortcomings, Trump runs a dead heat with Hillary Clinton among 2016 voters in a hypothetical rematch in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, underscoring Clinton’s own enduring unpopularity. Ninety-one percent of Trump voters say they’d support him again (albeit down from 96 percent in April). And marking a still-struggling opposition, 61 percent of Americans say Democratic leaders are mainly criticizing Trump, not presenting alternatives.

Democratic disarray, though, doesn’t negate Trump’s own challenges. Just 37 percent of Americans approve of his job performance, the lowest for any president at nine months in office in polling dating to 1946. Fifty-nine percent disapprove, numerically a new high for this president, but essentially unchanged since summer. Half disapprove “strongly,” another high -- twice as many as strongly approve.

The good news for the President: he has three years in which to achieve something good and well-liked and to make people forget how awful he was as President. The bad news: it's hard to undo his high numbers of disapproval, and especially "strong disapproval".

Reputed qualities are hard to change when they do not look good to begin with:



The trends do not work in his favor:



Maybe he can reverse the trends, but not even random scatter (changes within the margin of error, roughly 4%)  will undo the lost ground between April and October. Averaging non-college men and women for support I get 53%, which will be good enough to win some states in the Mountain and Deep South. But just think of what that means for such a state as Texas which is near the US average in formal education and has large minority populations. Texas hasn't gone for a Democratic nominee for President since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Take a look at support from "whites". That is less than half.

But what liberal isn't already honing conservative arguments against Donald Trump?  Even 'conservatives' are down from 81% support to 63%.

Are demographics everything? No. But used wisely, that's all we have.

[pbrower2a]

Democrats took over the governorship of New Jersey and won the Governorship of Virginia decisively. That a Democrat could win New Jersey would have been no surprise. Virginia was supposed to be close, as Virginia usually alternates between governors after two terms. But this time the Democrat beat the usual trend.

Democrats swept statewide offices in Virginia and had won 13 of 17 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates that the Republicans now have an overwhelming majority in, with several seats undecided.

A state legislator who took pride in his homophobia lost to a transgender opponent.

Of course, Donald Trump is political poison in those two states. It is also only two states.

http://wric.com/2017/11/07/virginia-demo...ver-house/

[pbrower2a]

Shown for detail in a nationwide poll.


November 14, 2017 - Trump Approval Rating At Near-Record Low, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Roy Moore Should Drop Out, Voters Say Almost 3-1


PDF format
Additional Trend Information
Sample and Methodology detail

American voters disapprove 58 - 35 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing, near his lowest score, a 61 - 33 percent disapproval August 2, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

Today's approval rating compares to a 56 - 38 percent disapproval in an October 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Independent voters, a key voting bloc, disapprove of President Trump 63 - 31 percent. Democrats disapprove 91 - 5 percent. Republicans approve 80 - 11 percent.

In a new low for this measure, only 40 percent of American voters say Trump is fit to serve as president, while 57 percent say he is not fit.

American voters disapprove 79 - 15 percent, including 60 - 32 percent among Republicans, of the way Republicans in Congress are doing their job. Disapproval is overwhelming among every party, gender, education, age and racial group listed.

Voters disapprove 63 - 29 percent of the job Democrats in Congress are doing.

American voters say 51 - 38 percent that they would like to see Democrats win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018.

Voters also say 52 - 39 percent that they would like to see Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in 2018.

"Must feel like Groundhog Day in Trumpland," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"President Donald Trump returns from his big Asia trip to find numbers frozen in the negative. Ominously, there is creeping slippage in the base.

"The president may have accomplished something in Asia: 36 percent of American voters say North Korea poses an immediate threat to the U.S., down from 48 percent one month ago."

American voter opinions of most Trump qualities remain negative:

• 58 - 37 percent that he is not honest;
  
• 59 - 38 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
  
• 59 - 39 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
  
• 65 - 30 percent that he is not level headed;
  
• 58 - 39 percent that he is a strong person;
  
• 55 - 41 percent that he is intelligent;
  
• 62 - 34 percent that he does not share their values.
  

Roy Moore

American voters say 63 - 23 percent, in questions asked Friday through Monday, that Roy Moore should drop out of the U.S. Senate race in Alabama. Republicans are divided, as 38 percent say he should stay in the race and 42 percent say he should drop out. Every other listed group says by wide margins he should get out.

Voters disapprove 43 - 25 percent, with 31 percent undecided, of the way Republican officials have responded to accusations against Moore. Republican voters are divided, as 31 percent approve and 29 percent disapprove, with 40 percent undecided.

All American voters believe 51 - 19 percent the charges against Moore.

"Roy Moore has to go, say American voters," Malloy said. "But the only voters who matter are in Alabama." Trump and the Media

American voters disapprove 58 - 38 percent of the way the media covers Trump, but trust the media more than Trump 54 - 34 percent to tell the truth about important issues.

Voters say 53 - 42 percent that the media focuses too much on negative stories about Trump, but do not believe 57 - 39 percent that the media makes up negative stories about him.

From November 7 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,577 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, including the design effect. For the 937 voters asked about Roy Moore, the margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or http://www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-det...aseID=2500

[pbrower2a]

A potentially-critical state, no surprise, and a surprise.


Elon, North Carolina.

Quote:North Carolina: Elon University, Nov 6-9, 771 RV

Approve 37
Disapprove 57

R 81/10, I 35/56, D 8/92

Gov. Roy Cooper: 49/30
Sen. Richard Burr: 31/40
Sen. Thom Tillis: 28/41

Elon is usually Democrat-friendly in its polling, but even with that caveat, the polling nuimbers for President Trump are execrable for any Republican in a state that has gone Democratic in a Presidential election only once since 1976.

Governor Cooper is a Democrat, and Senators Burr and Tillis are Republicans.

Massachusetts, WBUR (NPR in Greater Boston)

Favorability 27-66. But I do not show favorability polls anymore on these maps . Probably close to approval, though.  

http://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/...ed-5am.pdf

Quote:Alabama-Fox News:
Source

Registered voters
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald
Trump is doing as president?

NET: APPROVE 53%
NET: DISAPPROVE 45%

(Among likely voters, it's 52-47)

I'm going with likely voters.

FoX News uses objective polling. This Roy Moore debacle could be hurting the President in Alabama. Not that it is likely to hurt President Trump in 2020, it certainly isn't helping him now.


This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.



Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:




Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

[pbrower2a]

This approval map shows electoral votes to the states on the approval map.



Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead of electoral votes here:




Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%
41-45%
40% or lower

[pbrower2a]

Gallup, 12/1

Approve 33 (-1)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

This equals Trump's worst-ever numbers in Gallup on both ends.

After being mostly stable for a few weeks, movement over the last few days has been very bad for Trump:

11/28: 38/55 (-17)
11/29: 36/57 (-21)
11/30: 34/60 (-26)
12/1: 33/62 (-29)
(OK, it did recover a bit ...34/61, or -27, today).



Throughout November, the President's approval ratings have typically been in the high 30s and disapproval in the middle 50s. The change is outside the margin of error. It could be an outlier or it could represent a transitory event.

This said, the guilty plea by Michael Flynn will not go away. The tax bill that the President wants as does America's new aristocratic elite but the rest of America despises will not go away. I saw a really-bad favorability poll for the President in Colorado last week: 64% unfavorability. Colorado may be drifting D about as rapidly as West Virginia drifted R in the early part of this century, but hardly any state swings that fast. Disapproval for the President in California is at 68%, as if the difference between Clinton getting 61% of the vote in California and Trump being rejected by 68% of voters has any legal effect. It's still 55 electoral votes whether a Democrat gets a tiny plurality or 70% of the vote.

If these horrid approval ratings stick, I think I have an explanation.

If there are any statewide polls this weekend, then such might corroborate the tracking poll.

[pbrower2a]

The Gallup tracking poll that just appeared indicates a Presidency intensely unpopular in America. It cannot say whether the unpopularity arises from policies or from assessments of a personality. Most likely, both personality and policies both interact.

We need more statewide polling to establish whether the trend is confined to a few states reliably D over several elections or states rapidly lurching D (Colorado and Virginia?) I notice that a recent poll of Alabama suggested that although support for President Trump is stronger than opposition, the net support for the President is far lower than is the norm for previous Republican Presidents (Reagan and both Bushes, and anything before that is practically ancient history). I do not predict any statewide polling. Trump would be OK in a re-election bid if his best 'losing' state (he will lose Michigan in 2020) would give him 32% of the vote and his worst 'winning' state is Pennsylvania, which lets him squeak by with 20 popular votes but is the difference between 252 electoral votes for him and 272 electoral votes. But that is a probabilistic freak, something indicating that someone rigged the election.

At this point I predict that the best projection of the 2020 vote is that the President gets 100% less the disapproval rating in a binary election. Thus if the disapproval rating for Trump is 57% in Michigan, then the most that Trump can get in Michigan is 43%. Could he win with 43% of the vote? Only if his opposition is split, as between conventional Democrats and a new and powerful Socialist or even Communist party. But such does not yet loom.

At this point I must treat any immediate response to an outrageous deed or unpopular policy of the President or a polarizing and unpopular piece of legislation as a temporary and reversible event. My main map is cautious and slow to respond, reflecting the paucity of polls so far. I expect that to change in about a month as Senate races and control of the House of Representatives will become more frequent as is the norm in all midterm elections. I do not make inferences of 'likely polling' from extrapolations of national tracking unless I so indicate.

OK. It is a reasonable assumption that the Democrats are not going to cut into the white vote for Republicans enough to put states in the Deep or Mountain South in play for any potential Presidential nominee in 2020, and that there is going to be no sudden lurch toward the 50-50 split in states that Republicans just do not win except in landslides like 1980. 1984, and 1988. I think that we can agree that at this point nobody needs concern himself with any state that Trump won or lost by 10% or more or in which he got less than 45.5% of the vote (you will see what state that means.

States that I deem potentially in play at this stage based upon 2016 results are in colors other than gray. Here we go:



Utah 2016, Trump getting much less than a majority of the vote (45.05%)
Trump won by 8.0 to 9.99%
Trump won by 4.0 to 7.99%
Trump won by 1.0 to 3.99%
(white) Trump won by less than 1%
Clinton won by less than 4%
Clinton won by 4.0 to 7.99%
Clinton won by 8.0 to 9.99%

I have Florida in a really pale shade of blue because Trump won the state by 1.22% and New Hampshire in a really-pale shade of pink because Clinton won it by less than 1%.

I don't have a split of Maine by popular vote in the two Congressional districts, but I would guess that ME-01 is very solidly Democratic, and that ME-02 went to Trump in the same range as did Georgia. That's conservative on my part. But with that I get to add NE-02 for political symmetry, and I am guessing that Trump won it by slightly less than 10% and that Clinton won ME-01 by a similar margin.

Why do I show Utah? All that it would take for Trump to lose Utah would be for a Third Party or independent candidate to get Democrats to decide to not waste their vote on the Democratic nominee for President and vote instead for some conservative who better fits LDS (Mormon) values than does Donald Trump.

4% is the usual margin of error. In that range anyone who makes any prediction of absolute certainty is a fool and the only definitive result is the election itself. This is with the dynamics of 2016 which I must consider relevant. But this is assuming that results of 2016 have relevance in 2020. In the last three presidential elections involving an incumbent President, the statewide maps of the election changed little from the election that put the incumbent in and the one in which the incumbent sought re-election. That in mind, electoral history of the states is relevant.

Going back to 1992, as there are seven Presidential elections bearing some possible relevance to this one (and anything before that is either the GOP landslides of 1980, 1984, and 1988 which will not be approached and elections from 1976 or earlier when the Democratic party was stronger in the Middle and Deep South and the Democrats usually lost states outside the South except for a few scattered from Minnesota to Massachusetts)



Democratic seven times
Democratic six times
Democratic five times
Democratic four times (white)
Democratic three times
Democratic once
Republican seven times

No state has voted for the Democratic nominee in exactly two elections on this map.

I know, of course, that this history is relatively crude. It will be relevant, demographics notwithstanding, that the Democrats have a very weak position for winning any statewide election in Arizona or Georgia (one-time Bill Clinton wins, and close to somewhat close in 2016), let alone Texas. Utah is obviously a pipe dream for any Democrat or independent under all but the most extreme circumstances. Trump getting so close in Minnesota is itself a shocker, but I see plenty of ways for Minnesota to be a very bad state for Trump in 2020 and copious evidence in polling data that he will fare badly there. That Democrats usually win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin indicates that Donald Trump must achieve his promises without offending too many sensibilities to win those states. Likewise, that Bill Clinton lost Colorado and Florida once in the 1990s may not be particularly relevant. In view of the 2016 election it is absurd that Colorado and Ohio should be in the same category, but they are on this map of electoral history. The same applies to Florida and Virginia.



So how can I combine relevant issues such as the way the state voted in 2016 (which must matter greatly in an objective projection of the 2020 election) and the last seven elections?

Assign one point for the number of times in which a Democratic nominee won the state and one point for belonging in a category most unfavorable to Trump (7 for Hillary Clinton winning by 8% or more, 6 for her winning by 4% to 7.9%, 5 for her winning by less than 4%, 4 for a loss by her under 1%, 5 for a loss between 1% and 1.99%, 6 for a loss of 2 to 5.99%, and 7 for a loss of 6% or more. I am arbitrarily assigning a value of '4' to Utah because Trump got a smaller share of the total vote in Utah than he got in Michigan.

This is a probabilistic construction based upon the direction and margin of the vote in 2016 and the electoral history of the states beginning in 1992:


0 points (Texas)
2 to 4
5 to 7
8
9 to 11
12 or 13 (Maine, New Mexico, ME-01)

Before someone says that Iowa is lost to the Democrats, one must remember why the state voted in five of the last seven Presidential elections for a Democratic nominee. With Ohio, one must ask why the Democrats won four of the last seven such contests. On the other side, one must ask anyone who thinks that either Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina will go for just about any Democrat due to demographics or some other state trend why those states voted in six of the last seven times for Republican nominees for President. One can of course distinguish Florida and Virginia... and Colorado and Ohio.

[pbrower2a]

Guess what I just did? I just gave a crude way of predicting who will win the Presidency in 2020 based upon partisan identity. States in gray will most likely vote as they did in 2016. None of them was close, and I expect no wild swings. If there are wild swings -- let us say Kansas going D or Oregon going R -- then such indicates major changes in statewide trends, or an electoral blowout for one Party or the other.

Based on history and the margin of 2016, I might make these guesses of probability in a 50-50 election:

State   #  %

AZ    3 Trump 80 Dem 20
CO   11 Dem 80 Trump 20
FL     6 about even
GA    2  Trump 85 Dem 15
IA     5 Trump 60 Dem 40
ME  12 Dem 90 Trump 10
MI     10 Dem 70 Trump 30
MN   12 Dem 80 Trump 20
NV   10 Dem 70 Trump 30
NH  11 Dem 80 Trump 20
NM  12 Dem 90 Trump 10
NC    3 Trump 80 Dem 20
OH   4 Trump 70 Dem 30
PA   10 Dem 70 Trump 30 
TX    0 Trump 90 Dem 10
UT    4 Trump 50 third-party 50 Dem practically zero
VA    9 Dem 65 Trump 35 
WI   10 Dem 70 Trump 30

ME-01 13 Dem near 100 Trump near zero
ME-02 8 about a 50-50 split
NE-02  1 Trump 80 Dem 20

Nebraska at-large, NE-01, NE-03... fuhgeddabouditt

Assume that all states and districts will vote for Trump in 2020 if they voted for him in 2016 and that all states in gray that voted for Hillary Clinton will vote for just about any Democrat. Ten-point swings from one election to the next are rare unless one has a five-point or larger swing overall from one election to the next.

This is a crude estimate, but it takes into account the voting history and perhaps the strength of the statewide Party. It does not depend upon current polls.

[pbrower2a]

Updated for Michigan and Tennessee:

Before I set out on  my project, I get a poll on a state of which I made an allusion: Tennessee.  If  Donald Trump simply made a fool of himself in Alabama by supporting Roy Moore, then that would not appear in Tennessee as well. But if there is a trend in the Mountain and Deep South (western Tennessee and southern Alabama are Deep South, and eastern Tennessee and northern Alabama are Mountain South) altogether, then Tennessee should be drifting away from Trump and the GOP. Tennessee used to be one of the most progressive of the Southern states, and one of my favorite pols (Al Gore) was a US Senator in Tennessee.  It's one state, but it does have an open Senate seat in 2018 and an attractive Democratic candidate to fill it. Ten electoral votes are not trivial, either.

Quote:Vanderblit-Tennessee: 48% approve -47% disapprove

I can also add an update for Michigan, a state in which the bare win of Donald Trump looks like about as much a fluke as a six-game winning streak for the Detroit Cocker Spaniels baseball team will be in 2018 (I expect the Tigers to lose 100+ games next year):

In other results, 61% gave President Donald Trump a negative job approval rating, while 37% gave him a positive one. In August, Trump's unfavorable-favorable numbers were 56% to 36%.

Of those polled, 47% said Trump is mentally stable, while 42% said he is mentally unstable. Those numbers were 45% to 43% in August.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/m...956521001/


The contest shows both the leading Democrat and Republican with numbers in the 30s, which is completely useless for predicting anything. In 2008 I had a poll for Tennessee in which Obama had a lead over McCain in Tennessee. Obama actually led something like 39-37. Obama did not get more than the 37% that he had in that poll in the election in Tennessee that year.
 
This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.



Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:




Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

[pbrower2a]

Unless the most recent polls indicate a reversible event (use your imagination to decide what a reversible event is), the most recent statewide polls say more than the older ones. I had thought the '56' in Colorado, the '68' in California, the '62' in Virginia, the '57' in North Carolina, and the '59' in Florida to have been outliers. The '48' in Alabama, the '60' in Iowa, and the '61' in Michigan would suggest outliers without the context of other seeming outliers. These are also (except perhaps Alabama) consistent with a President having approval in the low 30s and disapproval near 60 nationwide.

Numbers like '51' in Pennsylvania, '48' in Ohio, and '52' in Nevada and Wisconsin look obsolete.

At this point my best estimate for the ceiling of performance of an incumbent President running for re-election is 100-DIS. It's possible to cut into the 'undecided', but not to undo disapproval.

These polls suggest that Donald Trump could face a landslide loss as severe as Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. I can imagine President Trump getting nothing more than the ultra-partisan vote.

........................

Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more







DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)

Map for recent polls

From November 7 on.


Exit polls from last night. VA 40/57, NJ 36/63.

You can hardly be more definitive than with an exit poll.

Gallup had 38/55 nationally on November 7.
Arkansas 47.5-45.5, Talk Business/Hendrix University (round up both)
California USC/Dornsife 22-66 Nov 7 (superseded)

NC, Elon 37-57 Nov 9
Alabama 53-45 Fox News (superseded)
Colorado 64% unfavorable (superseded -- and a favorability poll, so I don't need it)
California, PPIC 34-63, likely voters
Minnesota, 31-54, Survey USA
Iowa, 35-60 Selzer. Des Moines Register
Alabama, 48-48. Exit poll. One could hardly be more definitive.
Tennessee, Vanderbilt University. 48-47

]\[gh=== ...  iki

(The cat just walked upon my keyboard).

Michigan, EPIC-MRA. 37-61.

The Florida poll was from October, and the Colorado poll is from PPP (56% disapproval).

For the newest of these polls, I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:




Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.  

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. He may have won Iowa by nearly ten points, but he would be crushed there if an election were to be held there today. The recent poll suggests that the President has disappointed Iowa voters very much. Maybe it is not so blatant in Michigan, but there I can expect Trump to do 12% worse than Cook PVI would predict. We have a failed President, as the most recent polls show.

[pbrower2a]

Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more







DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:




Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.   

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. He may have won Iowa by nearly ten points, but he would be crushed there if an election were to be held there today. The recent poll suggests that the President has disappointed Iowa voters very much.

An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?

Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that  that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more.  For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14%, but my measure (100-DIS)  suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election.  
 
   


Fourteen states with recent polls... slightly fewer than one third of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. I cannot predict that the President's biggest losses of support are in the Midwest or South. I might expect things to be closer to normal in New York and New England except for Maine and new Hampshire, and I have nothing on the High Plains or Texas.

[pbrower2a]

ARG, New Hampshire. 26% approval, 66% disapproval. (I would not show this update except that the stats for New Hampshire are so simply horrific for the President.

One small state, but monstrous statistics.The state is nearly neutral in PVI, but it is about 16% away from being 50-50 in a 50-50 election.  

Minnesota. PPP.  44-53. Trump actually has a slight, if statistically insignificant improvement here. 44-53. Minnesota seems to never swing much. Trump seems to do unusually well for a Republican there. Not so many people as tenants? I would guess that if one is a tenant, Donald Trump reminds one of his landlord.  

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-c...122817.pdf

Franken approval, 53% - 42%. Not really bad, but I'm guessing that without the exposure of his bad behavior he might have an approval rating in the 60s.

Florida, Gravis... it's a favorability poll. Sometimes 'favorability' is asked in a manner that is practically identical to approval, but I found no link. it does not look good for the President.

Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more







DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:




Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.  

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. He may have won Iowa by nearly ten points, but he would be crushed there if an election were to be held there today. The recent poll suggests that the President has disappointed Iowa voters very much.

An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?

Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that  that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more.  For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14%, but my measure (100-DIS)  suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election.  

 


Fifteen states with recent polls... slightly fewer than one third of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. I cannot predict that the President's biggest losses of support are in the Midwest or South. I might expect things to be closer to normal in New York and New England except for Maine and new Hampshire, and I have nothing on the High Plains or Texas.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac:

Approve: 36% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (-/+)

Trump's First Year By Grade:
A - 16%
B - 16%
C - 11%
D - 17%
F - 39%

Honest? 34% Yes 63% No
Good Leadership Skills? 39% Yes 59% No
Cares About Average Americans? 38% Yes 59% No
Level Headed? 28% Yes 69% No
Strong Person? 59% Yes 39% No
Intelligent? 53% Yes 44% No
Share Your Values? 32% Yes 65% No

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-det...aseID=2511