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Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability
(05-22-2017, 12:47 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: As far as that goes, the concept "Make America Great Again" is reactionary in the sense of suggesting that something noble has been lost. All that I see worse about America since the 1920s  is that America is more crowded and that real estate is much more expensive in real terms. But go back to the era of 120 years ago -- I don't want elixirs of opiates and liquor sold as alternatives to seeing a physician. I don't want children then seen as trash (then Irish-Americans, largely) being run over by trolleys. I don't want black people being consigned to conditions reminiscent of serfdom. I don't want children drinking booze or toiling in mines and factories. The forty-year lifespan and seventy-hour workweek for workingmen as a norm is something to avoid -- not to recover.

I miss the optimism and energy of the GI generation. They grew up in the last ugly remnants of the Gilded Age, the Great Depression being a final reprise of the economic ugliness of what came before. From the New Deal through the Great Society I think we did pretty good. Getting back that spirit and energy wouldn't be a bad thing.

The Great Depression and World War II were not fun. The Gilded Age was just bad. Thinking those times the peak of America doesn't feel right at all save in the context of a Churchill misquote. If the nation lasts a thousand years, men will still say, "This was their finest hour." But in terms of when was our time of broad sunlit uplands, that would be the heyday of tax and spend liberalism.
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(05-23-2017, 04:54 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-22-2017, 12:47 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: As far as that goes, the concept "Make America Great Again" is reactionary in the sense of suggesting that something noble has been lost. All that I see worse about America since the 1920s  is that America is more crowded and that real estate is much more expensive in real terms. But go back to the era of 120 years ago -- I don't want elixirs of opiates and liquor sold as alternatives to seeing a physician. I don't want children then seen as trash (then Irish-Americans, largely) being run over by trolleys. I don't want black people being consigned to conditions reminiscent of serfdom. I don't want children drinking booze or toiling in mines and factories. The forty-year lifespan and seventy-hour workweek for workingmen as a norm is something to avoid -- not to recover.

I miss the optimism and energy of the GI generation.  They grew up in the last ugly remnants of the Gilded Age, the Great Depression being a final reprise of the economic ugliness of what came before.  From the New Deal through the Great Society I think we did pretty good.  Getting back that spirit and energy wouldn't be a bad thing.  

The Great Depression and World War II were not fun.  The Gilded Age was just bad.  Thinking those times the peak of America doesn't feel right at all save in the context of a Churchill misquote.  If the nation lasts a thousand years, men will still say, "This was their finest hour."  But in terms of when was our time of broad sunlit uplands, that would be the heyday of tax and spend liberalism.

Ironically I don't interpret Make America Great Again as "go back to pre-WWII" or "pre 20th Century." I interpret it as "go back to the 1T (and maybe the 2T?)"

The Boomers who are the most firebrand about Trump are recalling their childhoods and for the older ones, early adulthoods, and wanting to recreate that magic. But being from a sector (or having been recruited by the sector) that viewed FDR as "that man" and JFK as "a horny drunk Catholic Mick" they only consider a sliver of those past days. They are irrational in that it was the New Deal and the relative unity that arose after the "America Firsters" and their evil opposites the Bolsheviks were marginalized during the late 1930s and 1940s that made the 1T what it was and gave the 2T its "seed capital. "
#ImpeachTrump
#ProsecuteTreason
#HUAC2.0
#RealNationalism
#NaziPunksFOff


Mark 13:22 - "For there shall rise false Christs and false prophets, and they shall give signs and wonders, to seduce, if possible, also the chosen."


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(05-23-2017, 04:54 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-22-2017, 12:47 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: As far as that goes, the concept "Make America Great Again" is reactionary in the sense of suggesting that something noble has been lost. All that I see worse about America since the 1920s  is that America is more crowded and that real estate is much more expensive in real terms. But go back to the era of 120 years ago -- I don't want elixirs of opiates and liquor sold as alternatives to seeing a physician. I don't want children then seen as trash (then Irish-Americans, largely) being run over by trolleys. I don't want black people being consigned to conditions reminiscent of serfdom. I don't want children drinking booze or toiling in mines and factories. The forty-year lifespan and seventy-hour workweek for workingmen as a norm is something to avoid -- not to recover.

I miss the optimism and energy of the GI generation.  They grew up in the last ugly remnants of the Gilded Age, the Great Depression being a final reprise of the economic ugliness of what came before.  From the New Deal through the Great Society I think we did pretty good.  Getting back that spirit and energy wouldn't be a bad thing.


Regaining that spirit and energy would be the optimal solution. As a candidate, Donald Trump exploited mass resentments of people who use their education to allegedly exploit and oppress people with lousy jobs. The convenience store clerk who witnesses someone putting over $100 in motor fuels into the tanks of his pick-up and his motorboat isn't being exploited in that transaction. That clerk's problem may be in working in a job far too small for his talents and incapable of allowing anything more than bare survival in a social order that seems to value only material indulgence.

When America relied more heavily upon factories for employment, factory work was usually a reliable escape from grinding poverty. Work in fast food, retail, and farm labor was typically a stopgap or placeholder job -- something that one did while waiting for something that pays reasonably well before getting the first 'good' job, seeking a husband, or while laid off.  Now such jobs have often become permanent even if the worker intended it as a stopgap.  

People who feel that they have no stake in the economic order are vulnerable to demagogues, Left and Right. Be not fooled. Some Trump voters would have voted for a Commie who promised to expropriate great wealth and put it into new factories that would employ multitudes (but with Communism that implies denying the market and thus making huge amounts of stuff that nobody really wants -- obsolete stuff and objects with a saturated market).
 
Quote:The Great Depression and World War II were not fun.  The Gilded Age was just bad.  Thinking those times the peak of America doesn't feel right at all save in the context of a Churchill misquote.  If the nation lasts a thousand years, men will still say, "This was their finest hour."  But in terms of when was our time of broad sunlit uplands, that would be the heyday of tax and spend liberalism.

The Gilded Age was necessary -- the time in which America made basic investments in basic industry and sorted out what sorts of business work and what sorts don't.  It is easy to despise the brutal management, the dishonest business practices, the environmental degradation, the corruption in municipal and state government, and the gross neglect of children. We would not put up with that again. It was a time of economic growth, however uneven, unjust, and erratic with bubbles and busts. Nobody wants a return to the booms and busts. The Great Depression was the result of an attempt to return to the Gilded Age, and most of the Great Depression was the necessary measures to get out of a horrid meltdown. World War II was the consequence of fascists trying to achieve a new feudalism in which the industrial worker or small farmer became a serf worked to his physical limits and punished severely if he balked at that.

It is hard to imagine another war like the Second World War in which the war is an apocalyptic struggle between Good and Evil, with Good generally prevailing (but only after multitudes of people who did nothing wrong, like Jews, Gypsies, and the Polish intelligentsia. were largely exterminated). But this time, dystopia is practically at hand and many Americans know such to be so.

We will need to remake our cultural and economic norms. We are entering a new economic reality in which scarcity is no longer a necessary spur to toil. The bright side is that we can live with much more ease without lack. The dark side for many is that there may be no shortages to exploit (except perhaps for urban real estate, Donald Trump's source of wealth) for easy income above the norm.
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


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(05-23-2017, 07:02 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:
(05-23-2017, 04:54 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-22-2017, 12:47 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: As far as that goes, the concept "Make America Great Again" is reactionary in the sense of suggesting that something noble has been lost. All that I see worse about America since the 1920s  is that America is more crowded and that real estate is much more expensive in real terms. But go back to the era of 120 years ago -- I don't want elixirs of opiates and liquor sold as alternatives to seeing a physician. I don't want children then seen as trash (then Irish-Americans, largely) being run over by trolleys. I don't want black people being consigned to conditions reminiscent of serfdom. I don't want children drinking booze or toiling in mines and factories. The forty-year lifespan and seventy-hour workweek for workingmen as a norm is something to avoid -- not to recover.

I miss the optimism and energy of the GI generation.  They grew up in the last ugly remnants of the Gilded Age, the Great Depression being a final reprise of the economic ugliness of what came before.  From the New Deal through the Great Society I think we did pretty good.  Getting back that spirit and energy wouldn't be a bad thing.  

The Great Depression and World War II were not fun.  The Gilded Age was just bad.  Thinking those times the peak of America doesn't feel right at all save in the context of a Churchill misquote.  If the nation lasts a thousand years, men will still say, "This was their finest hour."  But in terms of when was our time of broad sunlit uplands, that would be the heyday of tax and spend liberalism.

Ironically I don't interpret Make America Great Again as "go back to pre-WWII" or "pre 20th Century." I interpret it as "go back to the 1T (and maybe the 2T?)"

The Boomers who are the most firebrand about Trump are recalling their childhoods and for the older ones, early adulthoods, and wanting to recreate that magic. But being from a sector (or having been recruited by the sector) that viewed FDR as "that man" and JFK as "a horny drunk Catholic Mick" they only consider a sliver of those past days. They are irrational in that it was the New Deal and the relative unity that arose after the "America Firsters" and their evil opposites the Bosheviks were marginalized during the late 1930s and 1940s that made the 1T what it was and gave the 2T its "seed capital. "

I think the same can be said about many of us progressives of all ages who supported Sanders in the primaries, there is a lot of pervasive New Deal nostalgia, a want to go back to the 50s prosperity (what Colin Woodard calls "national liberalism") only without the racism, sexism, and homophobia.
#MakeTheDemocratsGreatAgain
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Here is my compilation of Nate Silver's estimates of approval for President Trump. It's his algorithm, but my interpretation. I show this because his algorithm is more complete than my compilation and better compares states. I may not (more precisely, the polls that I have) agree with him. He doesn't have a poll of likely voters in one state and registered voters in another as I must to compile data. I am keeping "my" map of extant polling.

Colors are garish (for this I apologize), but in essence, President Trump must win everything in any shade of blue or green (except perhaps Iowa) and win three of the four states in pink that have 15 or more electoral votes (Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) to win re-election.

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=2;99;7]

We can assume that approval ratings reflect the perception of competence and desirability of the President's efforts. Nate Silver does not use existing polls; he has an algorithm, and it is a suitable alternative to a compilation of polls as I have, at the least for completeness.

States in maroon are reasonably assumed hopeless for any Republican nominee short of the new Ronald Reagan against a very weak Democratic opponent, and the approval rating that Nate Silver estimates for Trump in those states largely so indicates. He estimates that the President's approval ratings in such states based upon his algorithm is at or below 30%.

So let's lump the states into categories

ap rate      Dem   Trp
>= 30%     115   423
31-36%     187   359
36-41%     323   215
42%         374   164
44%         412   126
46-47%     430   208
47%         433   105
48-49%     450   188
50% or more -- Do you really need to know?

Should he win the states in other than those in maroon and medium red, then he has an electoral result similar to that of Obama in 2012. But that implies that he wins states in pink in which he has approval ratings between than 36% and 41% (which cuts off New Mexico, which went to Clinton by 8%, which is a reasonable limit for saying what is close and what isn't), and contains North Carolina (a 4% win for Trump in 2016) which asks for a 'yuge' changes in political expectations and reality. The good news for President Trump  is that he has almost three and a half years in which to make that work.  The bad news is that he has little room for pushing an unpopular agenda or for any economic meltdown or foreign disaster. As a reminder, Jimmy Carter was doing far better at a comparable time into his single term as President.  

All states in pink were close in 2016. Donald Trump will need to win at least three of those with fifteen or more electoral votes, as they include Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania and Florida. But having approvals of 41% or less at this stage just does not look good for the prospect of a re-election of President Trump in states that were close in 2016.

Next come states in which President Trump has an estimated approval rating of 42% -- Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio. Arizona and Georgia were fairly close in 2016, but they haven't gone to a Democratic nominee for President since the 1990s. Ohio and Iowa went for Obama twice but swung strongly for Trump.  These states comprise 51 electoral votes, and every one of them will be a must-win state for President Trump except for Iowa (only six electoral votes). President Trump is severely underwater in these states. I color them aqua.

Texas is a category in itself, a state straddling regions and having great diversity en economic life and ethnicity. A right-wing Republican should normally be very popular in Texas, at least since 2000 -- but it looks to have reverted to being on the margin of competitiveness.  Trump won it by about the same margin by which he lost New Mexico. It is the second-largest prize in electoral votes. Should President Trump lose Texas,  he is losing a landslide in which the Democratic challenger is getting over 400 electoral votes. Trump is underwater with only 44% approval and 49% approval. Texas is in lime green.  Texas might not be decided until December of 2020.

Bad as it might be for President Trump to be underwater in Alaska (not a Democratic win since 1964), or either Mississippi or South Carolina (last won by a Democratic nominee in 1976) -- he is barely underwater in those three states with approval ratings of 46% or 47%. Medium green.

Where the President is tied at 47%  (Indiana and Missouri in pale blue) he will likely win by mid-single digits, demonstrating the weakness of his defense of his record.  States in which he has just less than 50% approval (in medium blue) he will probably win with high single digits. Those in which he has an approval rating of 50%  (in navy) or more will go for President Trump by double digits.  

Note that Nate Silver does not distinguish the districts of Maine and Nebraska.
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


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Much demographic detail is here.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-det...aseID=2460

American voters believe 54 - 43 percent that President Donald Trump is abusing the powers of his office, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

President Trump gets a negative 37 - 55 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 36 - 58 percent approval in a May 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University. Today, voters over 65 years old, divided in earlier surveys, now disapprove 53 - 42 percent. Trump has a negative 36 - 54 percent approval among independent voters, an improvement from his negative 29 - 63 percent two weeks ago.

The president is under water among every party, gender, educational, age and racial group except Republicans, who approve 84 - 13 percent; white voters with no college degree, who approve 52 - 40 percent, and white men who are split 47 - 46 percent.

Trump fired FBI Director James Comey to disrupt the investigation into possible ties between the Russian government and the Trump campaign, 55 percent of voters believe. Another 36 percent say Trump lost confidence in Comey's ability to lead the FBI.

American voters disapprove 54 - 36 percent of the Comey firing. The firing was an abuse of power, 49 percent say, while 47 percent say it was not an abuse.

Voters do not believe 54 - 31 percent Trump's claim that Comey told him on three separate occasions that the president was not under investigation.

"President Donald Trump remains mired in dreadful mid 30s approval numbers and the red flags that are popping up tell an even darker story," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Retirement age voters are leaving in big numbers," Malloy added.

"But by far the most alarming determination is that President Trump is abusing his office."

Voters do believe 55 - 27 percent that Trump asked Comey to drop the FBI investigation into former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn.

The matter should be investigated by the U.S. House of Representatives, voters say 62 - 33 percent.

American voters support 66 - 30 percent the appointment of a special prosecutor to look into possible ties between Trump campaign advisors and the Russian government.

A total of 68 percent of voters say alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election is a "very important" or "somewhat important" issue.

President Trump is not honest, voters say 59 - 36 percent. Voter opinions of most of Trump's personal qualities remain negative:

57 - 40 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
56 - 42 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
65 - 31 percent that he is not level-headed;
64 - 33 percent that he is a strong person;
57 - 40 percent that he is intelligent;
62 - 36 percent that he does not share their values.

The president's first overseas trip has little impact on voter opinion of his foreign policy ability, as he gets a negative 38 - 56 percent approval rating for handling foreign policy, compared to a negative 36 - 59 percent in a May 10 Quinnipiac University poll. His grades on handling other issues are:

Disapprove 50 - 44 percent of the way he is handling the economy;
47 percent approve of the way he is handling terrorism and 45 percent disapprove;
Disapprove 57 - 41 percent of the way he is handling immigration.

From May 17 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,404 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or http://www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


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I expect New York State to hold the President in contempt, but this badly? Wow! How often is the lowest popularity of a President in his home state? Maybe the more that people know him, the less they like him. I don't have a category for 'under 30%' because I couldn't see its relevance.

I'm guessing that New Yorkers do not like the landlord class. Maybe that's a heritage that goes back to when the Dutch ruled and tried to establish the feudal patroon system.  

Quote:
Quote:New York (Siena):

Favorable 30%
Unfavorable 65%

NYC: 27/67
Suburbs: 32/66
Upstate: 33/63

Job Approval:

Excellent/Good 27%
Fair/Poor 71% (Poor is at 57%)

NYC: 24/73
Suburbs: 30/70
Upstate: 30/70
Wow, didn't he carry upstate in 2016?

It looks as if he has disappointed many of his 2016 voters.

New Hampshire:

Quote:UNH poll of New Hampshire (change from early May):

Approve 34% (-9)
Disapprove 56% (+9)

Trump barely lost this state in November.  Jimmy Carter without character. Sure, he can win in 2020 without New Hampshire -- but any Trump win of re-election will have new Hampshire at least close to being a win for him if he doesn't win it outright.

Michigan. I got polled for this one. Second poll of the year.

Quote:MRG poll of Michigan:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 51%

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Trump is doing as president? [IF APPROVE / DISAPPROVE, ASK:] Would that be strongly (approve / disapprove) or just somewhat (approve / disapprove)?



Strongly approve……………….25%

Somewhat approve……………..15%

Neither approve or disapprove….7%

Somewhat disapprove…………..7%

Strongly disapprove ……………44%

Don’t know……………………..2%

Look at the "Strong disapprove" category. There's much anger about President Trump.

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


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(Yesterday, 04:13 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: I expect New York State to hold the President in contempt, but this badly? Wow! How often is the lowest popularity of a President in his home state? Maybe the more that people know him, the less they like him. I don't have a category for 'under 30%' because I couldn't see its relevance.

I'm guessing that New Yorkers do not like the landlord class. Maybe that's a heritage that goes back to when the Dutch ruled and tried to establish the feudal patroon system.  

Quote:
Quote:New York (Siena):

Favorable 30%
Unfavorable 65%

NYC: 27/67
Suburbs: 32/66
Upstate: 33/63

Job Approval:

Excellent/Good 27%
Fair/Poor 71% (Poor is at 57%)

NYC: 24/73
Suburbs: 30/70
Upstate: 30/70
Wow, didn't he carry upstate in 2016?

It looks as if he has disappointed many of his 2016 voters.

New Hampshire:

Quote:UNH poll of New Hampshire (change from early May):

Approve 34% (-9)
Disapprove 56% (+9)

Trump barely lost this state in November.  Jimmy Carter without character. Sure, he can win in 2020 without New Hampshire -- but any Trump win of re-election will have new Hampshire at least close to being a win for him if he doesn't win it outright.

Michigan. I got polled for this one. Second poll of the year.

Quote:MRG poll of Michigan:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 51%

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Trump is doing as president? [IF APPROVE / DISAPPROVE, ASK:] Would that be strongly (approve / disapprove) or just somewhat (approve / disapprove)?



Strongly approve……………….25%

Somewhat approve……………..15%

Neither approve or disapprove….7%

Somewhat disapprove…………..7%

Strongly disapprove ……………44%

Don’t know……………………..2%

Look at the "Strong disapprove" category. There's much anger about President Trump.

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation

I think we are seeing the hard hats starting to turn against him.

Hard hats may hate what they term "n___rs, sp__s, ch__ks, f_gs" etc, but they really hate a bullshitter.
#ImpeachTrump
#ProsecuteTreason
#HUAC2.0
#RealNationalism
#NaziPunksFOff


Mark 13:22 - "For there shall rise false Christs and false prophets, and they shall give signs and wonders, to seduce, if possible, also the chosen."


Reply
(Yesterday, 04:59 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: I think we are seeing the hard hats starting to turn against him.

Hard hats may hate what they term "n___rs, sp__s, ch__ks, f_gs" etc, but they really hate a bullshitter.

We are seeing multitudes turn against the President. He betrayed his promises. Hoover was OK until the economy melted down, and Carter was OK until events in Iran went out of hand very fast. But events betrayed the Hoover and Carter presidencies.

I'm not so sure that the 'hard-hats' are as bigoted as the stereotypes of the 1970s had them. Co-workers might be "n___rs, sp__s, ch__ks, f_gs" etc.  Then there might be a 'Puerto Rican' son-in-law or 'Mexican-American' daughter-in-law that they try to convince you is 'really Italian'. "Archie Bunker" is dead.

I have had my unfortunate encounters with 'bullshitters' -- and I know enough to listen only for dollops of entertaining fiction.

I'm beginning to wonder about rural America. Donald Trump is the definitive city slicker at the stereotypical worst. I have seen no polls so far about the Plains states except for Oklahoma.

...The most likely time for a Regeneracy will be the evening of November 3, 2020. When states that 'never, ever, ever! vote for a Democratic Presidential nominee' are shown voting against Trump or Pence, we will know that the Power of Mammon is broken. I can easily imagine the Republicans warning about how employers will shutter their doors, Satanism will supplant Christianity, the sun will stop shining, and dogs will turn on their owners if people don't vote right. Or is it 'Right'?

We are entering the post-scarcity era, and that transition may not be so bright and benign as many expected. Because there will be far fewer easy ways to make an above-average income other than being born rich or being part of a bureaucratic elite. people will find some of their expectations unmet. The insecurities that people had will not be solved with status symbols that buy a simulacrum of self-esteem for a moment. Creativity and imagination are far less commonplace at the level of commercial marketability than people think.

But a post-scarcity society means that need is no longer a conscionable means of controlling people. But plutocrats and bureaucratic elites control through fear.
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


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