Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

Two polls, one of California, and one of New Jersey, have approval ratings for President Trump ... in the twenties.

I wonder how long before a state that Trump won in 2016 gives the President an approval rating in the twenties? A couple weeks ago I saw one for Michigan that read '12%", but that looks like a misprint for "32%".

The Comey testimony can only hurt President Trump. That of Sessions can't help.

At this point I can imagine mass defections of clean-government right-wingers who want a plutocratic economy, bans on abortion (and perhaps contraception) and same-sex marriage, male supremacy, outlawry of labor unions, abolition of minimum wage and hour laws, and a slashing of regulations on business. They dislike corruption but would rather support a Hard Right alternative to Donald Trump.

[pbrower2a]

Polls of states not yet polled (Trump is in trouble in both of those) and West Virginia, which has been polled. They are for an advocacy group, and they suggest that

(1) AHCA (largely a repudiation of Obamacare) is a political disaster even if it passes,
(2) Almost any Republican Senator who votes for it could be dead meat in the 2018 or 2020 election,
(3) Dean Heller will be the equivalent in 2018 of Blanche Lincoln in 2010 seemingly no matter what he does, and
(4) Alaska looks like a tossup in 2020 for Donald Trump should he run for re-election... possibly voting the second time ever for the Democratic nominee for President.

Trump underwater in Alaska:

Alaska -

Trump's approval - 44/48 (-4)
Lisa Murkowski - 35/43 (-8)
Trumpcare - 29/53 (-24)
Voting intention of Murkowski to Generic D - 39/31 (+8)
If Murkowski votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 22/49 (-27)


Nevada -

Trump's approval - 44/50 (-6)
Dean Heller - 31/44 (-13)
Trumpcare - 31/51 (-20)
Voting intention of Heller to Generic D - 39/46 (-7)
If Heller votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 27/45 (-18)

West Virginia -

Trump's approval - 55/36 (+19)
Shelly Capito - 42/33(+9)
Trumpcare - 35/41 (-6)
Voting intention of Shelly Capito to Generic D - 48/35 (+13)
If Heller votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 29/36 (-7)

http://www.savemycare.org/wp-content/upl...esults.pdf
https://www.scribd.com/document/35170344...s-06-14-17
http://www.savemycare.org/wp-content/upl...esults.pdf[/quote][/quote]
....................

First polls of any kind of Alaska and Nevada, apparently by an advocacy group -- but I understand that these polls were taken by PPP. Yes, I know that Alaska is a tough state to poll from outside the state because few pollsters can have such options as "Press '3' for Aleut" or "Press '4' for Inuit".

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona, Massachusetts and Oklahoma



Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%

Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%

White - tie.

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation

[pbrower2a]

I'd like to see polls of Georgia, Missouri, and Ohio, for which we still have nothing, and a genuine approval poll for Arizona (the Arizona poll is of favorability, and it is very old).
1

[Eric the Green]

The loss in GA is yet another stunning demo of American ignorance. I am tending toward the David Kaiser view today. America is deciding in favor of gilded age, banana republic status. I don't know where this goes, but it can't be easy any way it goes. Buckle up folks; we're going downhill. Dismemberment of America at this point would be an optimistic scenario.

I have little confidence that states like Georgia, Missouri, Ohio, Arizona, can turn around, after this result. Polls are not elections. People are stuck. In hatred of liberals, in belief in trickle down, in the religious right; and just in general, ignorance. Those Republicans losing their approval of Trump, still support Republican ideology and policies. They will most likely stay in the fold, and follow "Daddy" as kinser calls him. That's what Republicans and conservatives do; bow down to Daddy.

With each election, our country moves closer to ruin. I become more partisan and less optimistic, and more the ripe target for Bob's "advice" and characterizations.

[Galen]

(06-20-2017, 10:36 PM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: The loss in GA is yet another stunning demo of American ignorance. I am tending toward the David Kaiser view today. America is deciding in favor of gilded age, banana republic status. I don't know where this goes, but it can't be easy any way it goes. Buckle up folks; we're going downhill. Dismemberment of America at this point would be an optimistic scenario.

The Dims spent twenty-three million dollars versus three and a half million from the opposing team and managed to lose the election.  A prime example of what Heinlein called the authoritarian fallacy.  I truly am enjoying watching the libtards go crazy because they can't even contemplate the possibility that people will reject them.

No doubt Alphabet will claim the Russians did it like a character out of Dr. Strangelove.

[Odin]

(06-21-2017, 02:48 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-20-2017, 10:36 PM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: The loss in GA is yet another stunning demo of American ignorance. I am tending toward the David Kaiser view today. America is deciding in favor of gilded age, banana republic status. I don't know where this goes, but it can't be easy any way it goes. Buckle up folks; we're going downhill. Dismemberment of America at this point would be an optimistic scenario.

The Dims spent twenty-three million dollars versus three and a half million from the opposing team and managed to lose the election.  A prime example of what Heinlein called the authoritarian fallacy.  I truly am enjoying watching the libtards go crazy because they can't even contemplate the possibility that people will reject them.

No doubt Alphabet will claim the Russians did it like a character out of Dr. Strangelove.

LOL, you know that Republicans usually win that seat by a huge margin, right? The fact that Ossoff even had a chance in that district doesn't bode well for the GOP. You are truly and utterly deluded.

[Eric the Green]

(06-21-2017, 06:43 AM)Odin Wrote:

(06-21-2017, 02:48 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-20-2017, 10:36 PM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: The loss in GA is yet another stunning demo of American ignorance. I am tending toward the David Kaiser view today. America is deciding in favor of gilded age, banana republic status. I don't know where this goes, but it can't be easy any way it goes. Buckle up folks; we're going downhill. Dismemberment of America at this point would be an optimistic scenario.

The Dims spent twenty-three million dollars versus three and a half million from the opposing team and managed to lose the election.  A prime example of what Heinlein called the authoritarian fallacy.  I truly am enjoying watching the libtards go crazy because they can't even contemplate the possibility that people will reject them.

No doubt Alphabet will claim the Russians did it like a character out of Dr. Strangelove.

LOL, you know that Republicans usually win that seat by a huge margin, right? The fact that Ossoff even had a chance in that district doesn't bode well for the GOP. You are truly and utterly deluded.

Galen the clueless, as usual, has none. From what I have heard, the Republicans poured millions into this race, as opposed to mostly small donations to Ossoff.

I must admit, it drives me a bit crazy when people vote for a demon like Handel whom I can't even contemplate anyone voting for. It is a bit disturbing to know that I live in a country, half of which is in the Dark Ages. I am glad Galen enjoys it. It brings me joy to know that there is a bit more joy in the world

[pbrower2a]

(06-21-2017, 02:48 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-20-2017, 10:36 PM)Eric the not-so-Obtuse Wrote: The loss in GA is yet another stunning demo of American ignorance. I am tending toward the David Kaiser view today. America is deciding in favor of gilded age, banana republic status. I don't know where this goes, but it can't be easy any way it goes. Buckle up folks; we're going downhill. Dismemberment of America at this point would be an optimistic scenario.

The Dims spent twenty-three million dollars versus three and a half million from the opposing team and managed to lose the election.  A prime example of what Heinlein called the authoritarian fallacy.  I truly am enjoying watching the libtards go crazy because they can't even contemplate the possibility that people will reject them.

Call us liberals what you wish -- but we are not stupid or immoral. To the contrary. Most of us think ourselves wiser and more decent than the President, or even the fanatics and empty-suit pols that the Master Class has foisted upon the not-so-wise and not-so-decent among us. Your fanatics and empty-suit pols are extremely successful at creating wealth and indulgence for a few and misery for almost everyone else.

It is better that liberals be your opposition. If your Dark Side should render us irrelevant, then think of the sorts of political figures who could oppose your side. Lenin. Mao. Castro. People even more ruthless, sadistic, and brutal. People who know how to stoke anger at exploiters and abusers who happen to be owners and managers.

Sure, life is great for economic elites just before the Revolution. But once the Revolution comes, your assets are forfeit, and when the angry mobs that a Marxist demagogue has stirred up wants to take revenge, the people that you have allowed to live with a little privilege as brutal enforcers of your interests will sell out to the revolutionaries who know that the only loyalty of such people is to whoever cuts the paycheck or distributes the coins of 'real value'. The fiat currency of the old regime will be worthless except to be exchanged for 'revolutionary' currency (including vouchers for obvious needs) as the revolutionaries deem fit. Currency with one set of idol images is replaced with the idols of the Revolution. 

We liberals have our virtues. We dislike violence, and tolerate it only in self-defense, as in our Jihad against Hitler, Tojo, and Mussolini. We were the pioneers of freeing Humanity from the strictures of authoritarian believe-it-or-burn religion . We started the idea of responsible government. We initiated the movement to abolish slavery. We came early to recognize the right of working people to contest the bureaucratic power of tycoons. We got children out of the mines and factories and into schools. We acceded before others to equal rights of political participation for women. We opposed Jim Crow and Apartheid. We have a track record. Your advocates of all power to owners and managers? Your side may have created wealth, but it has no idea of how to transform it into happiness.

Quote:No doubt Alphabet will claim the Russians did it like a character out of Dr. Strangelove.

This special election? No. The 2018 elections will be big, and the 2020 election will be really-big.

Donald Trump is still at least as bad a political leader as he was as a businessman, and the Republican majority in both Houses of Congress and Republican majorities have nothing to offer people other than themselves except pain and shame. No pseudo-intellectual legerdemain can refute that.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-20-2017, 10:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The loss in GA is yet another stunning demo of American ignorance. I am tending toward the David Kaiser view today. America is deciding in favor of gilded age, banana republic status. I don't know where this goes, but it can't be easy any way it goes. Buckle up folks; we're going downhill. Dismemberment of America at this point would be an optimistic scenario.

I have little confidence that states like Georgia, Missouri, Ohio, Arizona, can turn around, after this result. Polls are not elections. People are stuck. In hatred of liberals, in belief in trickle down, in the religious right; and just in general, ignorance. Those Republicans losing their approval of Trump, still support Republican ideology and policies. They will most likely stay in the fold, and follow "Daddy" as kinser calls him. That's what Republicans and conservatives do; bow down to Daddy.

With each election, our country moves closer to ruin. I become more partisan and less optimistic, and more the ripe target for Bob's "advice" and characterizations.

I’m not sure ignorance is the proper blanket word for the unravelling memes.

Reagan did push some racist ideas. White folk ought not to pay into a welfare program which paid single black women to have babies. This broadened out to people ought to pay their own way, that the government should not try to even the gap between poverty and wealth. Beyond that, it walked into trickle down, the idea that giving money to the rich helped the poor.

Now part of this is ignorance, or perhaps the intellectualized art of fooling one’s self. Even people who have convinced themselves they are intelligent can believe in borrow and spend trickle down if they feel like it. Tax breaks are tempting. To get the tax break, one learns the fine art of double think. It isn’t that many such people aren’t intelligent, or can’t learn, but when money and selfishness mix, doublethink is easy.

How much of this is still racism? How much is “I’ve got mine, up yours” tribal thinking, where so long as you can keep your head above water, you don’t care about those drowning? Either way, I don’t see it as ignorance. It is a deliberate, callous, willful choice to let people drown.

Part of it actually might be the falling empire syndrome. A strong country can coast on its former greatness for a time. It can maintain a mighty military after the special circumstances which made them a superpower have passed. The unraveling memes call for much money spent on military power with little money collected in taxes. Since the start of the Industrial Age, any given superpower winds up walking that road, getting swamped in debt, and eventually losing any pretension of being a superpower. The greater the delusion, the uglier the recovery period as the great power becomes a more run of the road nation. Spain, France, Britain, Germany, the Soviet Union… This doesn’t make it inevitable that the United States will vanish. All of the above nations eventually learned and adapted. Still, we do seem to be following the trail well trod by prior militaristic industrial former superpowers.

I’m not sure this is ignorance, save perhaps of history. It seems pretty well inevitable. One presumes one can be as strong as one has recently been, even if one stops paying one’s bills. Once one builds a notion that one’s nation can push it’s weight around internationally, it seems historically difficult to let go.

Then there is absolute religious ethics. If one’s view of how to interpret Christ is absolutely correct, that view must be forced on everyone. This would be the opposite of Freedom, of letting each find his or her own life style. This is not a simple one way street. Will the coasts force folks in the middle of the country to support what is seen as perverse sinful life styles? Is it freedom to protect all life styles, or is it foul coercion to force everyone to support detested life styles? As a liberal, I’d like everyone free to live as they choose, but I don’t find it difficult to perceive the opposing point of view.

Me? Do as you will, but harm none.

Eric, I grew up blue, and you don’t have to work hard to get me pushing most blue positions. (Most. Let’s only briefly mention the Second Amendment.) However, there are valid, well though out or deeply set in habit alternatives to the blue. If one labels and thinks of the other guys as stupid, evil, ignorant, insane, brainwashed, etc… it is not the other guys who are ignorant. There is, on both sides, a willful and deliberate effort to not understand, to remain ignorant, to demonize anyone who conflicts with one’s own culture.

This thread, to me, seems a nice solid demonstration of this.

This is a time and place to advocate for blue values. We do need advocates breathing fire and brimstone. We don’t need them to be ignorant, to scream from the mountaintops what seems obviously wrong to those being screamed at.

Back to the thread topic.

For decades, conservative talk radio has blanketed much of the country with one way of looking at things. More recently, main stream media and late night TV comedy have been emphasizing the opposite perspective. The polls suggest that Trump has demonstrated himself to be a failure, yet every special election since Trump was elected has gone the Republican's way. The atmosphere in Washington DC is rancid, hostile, stagnated, perhaps just a bit more than usual. Nixon finally went down when his defenses became to absurd for the Republicans in Congress to pretend to believe them. No where near that point yet. I'm not sure we'll get to that point before the mid term elections.

While the night show political spinners are entertaining, I don't trust them to be any more 'fair and balanced' than many conservative sources. I've a feeling that many conservatives have tuned many news sources out. I know I apply strong amounts of anti-spin to most anything from any source these days. People are so dedicated to their conflicting partisan alternate realities that finding something like reality requires real effort.

While this is far to early to take polling seriously, I've the notion that Trump's White House is not respected, is on shaky ground, save with those well locked into the Republican base. Sill, I'm not sure the unraveling ideals that he based his platform on have been taken out. Folk will still be looking for an unraveling firebrand, someone who can imitate Reagan well enough.

Seems to be a tough act to pull off.

[David Horn]

(06-21-2017, 02:18 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: ... I grew up blue, and you don’t have to work hard to get me pushing most blue positions.  (Most.  Let’s only briefly mention the Second Amendment.)  However, there are valid, well though out or deeply set in habit alternatives to the blue.  If one labels and thinks of the other guys as stupid, evil, ignorant, insane, brainwashed, etc… it is not the other guys who are ignorant.  There is, on both sides, a willful and deliberate effort to not understand, to remain ignorant, to demonize anyone who conflicts with one’s own culture...

Let me add a quick comment.  We need to be cautious of too much fairness too.  Balancing Position A on equal terms with Position B is fine, as long as both are at least arguable.  If either rests on a bed of fallacious assumptions, then balance actually favors lies over truth by giving those lies unjustified stature.  So yes, let's avoid demonizing people we disagree with, but let's not give a hand wave to bogus ideas either.  If we're fair about calling out the clearly false and only the clearly false, we are less likely to be framed as blind ideologues ourselves.

[Galen]

(06-21-2017, 06:43 AM)Odin Wrote:

(06-21-2017, 02:48 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-20-2017, 10:36 PM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: The loss in GA is yet another stunning demo of American ignorance. I am tending toward the David Kaiser view today. America is deciding in favor of gilded age, banana republic status. I don't know where this goes, but it can't be easy any way it goes. Buckle up folks; we're going downhill. Dismemberment of America at this point would be an optimistic scenario.

The Dims spent twenty-three million dollars versus three and a half million from the opposing team and managed to lose the election.  A prime example of what Heinlein called the authoritarian fallacy.  I truly am enjoying watching the libtards go crazy because they can't even contemplate the possibility that people will reject them.

No doubt Alphabet will claim the Russians did it like a character out of Dr. Strangelove.

LOL, you know that Republicans usually win that seat by a huge margin, right? The fact that Ossoff even had a chance in that district doesn't bode well for the GOP. You are truly and utterly deluded.

Then why would anyone with a clue flush twenty-three million dollars down the drain in such a district?  Only the Dims.

[Galen]

(06-21-2017, 09:26 AM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote:

(06-21-2017, 06:43 AM)Odin Wrote:

(06-21-2017, 02:48 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-20-2017, 10:36 PM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: The loss in GA is yet another stunning demo of American ignorance. I am tending toward the David Kaiser view today. America is deciding in favor of gilded age, banana republic status. I don't know where this goes, but it can't be easy any way it goes. Buckle up folks; we're going downhill. Dismemberment of America at this point would be an optimistic scenario.

The Dims spent twenty-three million dollars versus three and a half million from the opposing team and managed to lose the election.  A prime example of what Heinlein called the authoritarian fallacy.  I truly am enjoying watching the libtards go crazy because they can't even contemplate the possibility that people will reject them.

No doubt Alphabet will claim the Russians did it like a character out of Dr. Strangelove.

LOL, you know that Republicans usually win that seat by a huge margin, right? The fact that Ossoff even had a chance in that district doesn't bode well for the GOP. You are truly and utterly deluded.

From what I have heard, the Republicans poured millions into this race, as opposed to mostly small donations to Ossoff.

My understanding is that most of the money came from California which reveals two thing.  First, a burning desire to run other people's lives which is one thing that make libtards as annoying as bible thumpers.  Second, an impressive ability to waste insane amounts of other people's money.  Nice to know there are things you can count on in the world.

[Galen]

(06-21-2017, 09:26 AM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote:

(06-21-2017, 06:43 AM)Odin Wrote:

(06-21-2017, 02:48 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-20-2017, 10:36 PM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: The loss in GA is yet another stunning demo of American ignorance. I am tending toward the David Kaiser view today. America is deciding in favor of gilded age, banana republic status. I don't know where this goes, but it can't be easy any way it goes. Buckle up folks; we're going downhill. Dismemberment of America at this point would be an optimistic scenario.

The Dims spent twenty-three million dollars versus three and a half million from the opposing team and managed to lose the election.  A prime example of what Heinlein called the authoritarian fallacy.  I truly am enjoying watching the libtards go crazy because they can't even contemplate the possibility that people will reject them.

No doubt Alphabet will claim the Russians did it like a character out of Dr. Strangelove.

LOL, you know that Republicans usually win that seat by a huge margin, right? The fact that Ossoff even had a chance in that district doesn't bode well for the GOP. You are truly and utterly deluded.

From what I have heard, the Republicans poured millions into this race, as opposed to mostly small donations to Ossoff.

No doubt the irony of Ossoff complaining about the role of money in politics after spending seven times what the R did will be lost on you.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-21-2017, 02:38 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-21-2017, 02:18 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: ... I grew up blue, and you don’t have to work hard to get me pushing most blue positions.  (Most.  Let’s only briefly mention the Second Amendment.)  However, there are valid, well though out or deeply set in habit alternatives to the blue.  If one labels and thinks of the other guys as stupid, evil, ignorant, insane, brainwashed, etc… it is not the other guys who are ignorant.  There is, on both sides, a willful and deliberate effort to not understand, to remain ignorant, to demonize anyone who conflicts with one’s own culture...

Let me add a quick comment.  We need to be cautious of too much fairness too.  Balancing Position A on equal terms with Position B is fine, as long as both are at least arguable.  If either rests on a bed of fallacious assumptions, then balance actually favors lies over truth by giving those lies unjustified stature.  So yes, let's avoid demonizing people we disagree with, but let's not give a hand wave to bogus ideas either.  If we're fair about calling out the clearly false and only the clearly false, we are less likely to be framed as blind ideologues ourselves.

I'm not that eager to balance Position A and Position B.  As I've said, for the most part I lean blue.  The positions aren't equal.  One shouldn't go in with a presumption that they are.

I've got more of a problem with individuals being demonized, with their opinions being replaced by straw man parodies.  If one says all conservatives are ignorant, or if one says that all conservatives think like (fill in the blank), while the conservative sees himself as having a well thought out and researched view on (fill in the blank) that has nothing to do with the liberal's straw man argument, it isn't the conservative that comes across as ignorant and obtuse.  It's the liberal who hasn't done his homework, who hasn't thought out his argument.

I don't know that each side should be presumed to have an equal argument.  It would be nice, though, if both sides made a sincere attempt to understand the other's real points of view rather than to make up demonized straw man perspectives that reflect only hate and prejudice.

Now, I quite understand why Eric is known as 'obtuse'.  He just doesn't listen.  However, I make futile attempts to communicate with him and not to Galen as I find Galen even more  obtuse.  He too is locked into a perspective and is even less apt to understand or change than Eric.  Perhaps I owe Galen equal time to Eric.  In the meantime, as long as those two make no real attempts to understand and respect the other, as long as they demonize, as long as the indulge in attacking straw men, the hate and distrust balloon and understanding is not touched.

To me, Kinser made an interesting argument favoring conservatism, the notion of tribal thinking.  Yes, people are apt to advocate policies which are to their advantage or the advantage of those from a similar tribe or culture.  'Love', what is sometimes in behavioral psychology called the peer bond, is not universal.  It is part of the species and many cultures to respect and support those who share a culture and tribal identity while shunning and debasing those outside of the bond.

This shouldn't be hard to understand.  Appreciate, celebrate and support one's own, and shun everyone else.  It is altogether too human.  It isn't just human, but many animals that share a group bond show the behavior.  Genetically, tribal thinking is a cost effective way to spread one's group's contributions to the gene pool.  To remain ignorant of tribal thought is a bad idea.  In many ways, it is the core of what many consider evil or selfishness, a lack of empathy with the outsider.  At worst, it is how Hitler treated the Jew, or Genghis Khan treated whatever group of unfamiliar people happened to live over the next rise of ground.  There is a big distinction that can and is made between 'us' and 'them'.

Borrow and spend trickle down is tribal thinking in spades.  From such a perspective, it is entirely proper to vote for representatives who will reward and enable 'us' while disparaging and dismissing 'them'.  Whether one sees oneself as benefiting from tax breaks to the middle class, whether one follows a particular form of Christian religion, whether one's culture of origin or skin pigmentation labels one as 'us', it is easy for humans to slip into a very human pattern of hate and oppression.

To me, and to many a liberal, the definition of who 'us' is would be different.  All US citizens, all Americans, perhaps all humans, are 'us'.  All men and woman are in theory equal.  It is quintessentially American to act on the theory.  It is the government's job to manifest that equality.  It is the People's option or duty to overthrow a government that doesn't work towards equality.

That, to me, is a key abstract and theoretical difference between red and blue.  The red will exploit the divide between 'us' and 'them' to their own benefit.  The blue will attempt to minimize the divide.  It's the old "Good Samaritan" parable.  Do you embrace modern equivalents of the prejudices that made Jews hate Samaritans back in the day, or does one attempt to overcome any prejudicial divides, to treat all equally, well and with respect.  If you see a poor guy laying hurt by the side of the road, will you rise your nose, turn your head in the other direction and pass by, or will you vote for solid inclusive health care?

It is easy, trivially easy, to treat rural red conservatives as bad Samaritans.  It is too often what they do.  It is so easy to show them the flip side of their own very old coin.

But to the extent that this is part of the core problem, I think the liberals are going to have to grow some.  Too many are too set in their ways to do so.

[Galen]

(06-21-2017, 04:14 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Atlanta reminds me of how the Bay Area was 30 years ago. We had very Left urban cores meanwhile our burbs were solid GOP territory. I can't imagine the GOP did well with the true urban core areas (assuming there were any in that district). BTW, the last time a Democrat won it was the predecessor to Gingrich. Over 40 years ago. The fact that a Millennial Democrat came within a hair's breadth of winning is somewhat of an omen.

Normally with this many special elections at least one or two seats should have flipped to Dims and this was one of the more likely ones.  None of them did and it took a seven times spending advantage and over sampling the polls like the media did last year to get this close.  The Dims still haven't learned anything and my guess is that their latest antics are in fact pissing people off.

I have often said that a fourth turning marks the end of an order and way of looking at things.  My suspicion is that when future history books are written they will say that the election of Trump marked the real end of the Progressive Era.  It looks like the next saeculum will be marked by the destruction of large entities including nation states.

[Odin]

(06-21-2017, 09:26 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-21-2017, 06:43 AM)Odin Wrote:

(06-21-2017, 02:48 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-20-2017, 10:36 PM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: The loss in GA is yet another stunning demo of American ignorance. I am tending toward the David Kaiser view today. America is deciding in favor of gilded age, banana republic status. I don't know where this goes, but it can't be easy any way it goes. Buckle up folks; we're going downhill. Dismemberment of America at this point would be an optimistic scenario.

The Dims spent twenty-three million dollars versus three and a half million from the opposing team and managed to lose the election.  A prime example of what Heinlein called the authoritarian fallacy.  I truly am enjoying watching the libtards go crazy because they can't even contemplate the possibility that people will reject them.

No doubt Alphabet will claim the Russians did it like a character out of Dr. Strangelove.

LOL, you know that Republicans usually win that seat by a huge margin, right? The fact that Ossoff even had a chance in that district doesn't bode well for the GOP. You are truly and utterly deluded.

Galen the clueless, as usual, has none. From what I have heard, the Republicans poured millions into this race, as opposed to mostly small donations to Ossoff.

I must admit, it drives me a bit crazy when people vote for a demon like Handel whom I can't even contemplate anyone voting for. It is a bit disturbing to know that I live in a country, half of which is in the Dark Ages. I am glad Galen enjoys it. It brings me joy to know that there is a bit more joy in the world

Galen has the mind of a 15yo internet troll.

[Odin]

(06-21-2017, 02:40 PM)Galen Wrote:

(06-21-2017, 06:43 AM)Odin Wrote:

(06-21-2017, 02:48 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-20-2017, 10:36 PM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: The loss in GA is yet another stunning demo of American ignorance. I am tending toward the David Kaiser view today. America is deciding in favor of gilded age, banana republic status. I don't know where this goes, but it can't be easy any way it goes. Buckle up folks; we're going downhill. Dismemberment of America at this point would be an optimistic scenario.

The Dims spent twenty-three million dollars versus three and a half million from the opposing team and managed to lose the election.  A prime example of what Heinlein called the authoritarian fallacy.  I truly am enjoying watching the libtards go crazy because they can't even contemplate the possibility that people will reject them.

No doubt Alphabet will claim the Russians did it like a character out of Dr. Strangelove.

LOL, you know that Republicans usually win that seat by a huge margin, right? The fact that Ossoff even had a chance in that district doesn't bode well for the GOP. You are truly and utterly deluded.

Then why would anyone with a clue flush twenty-three million dollars down the drain in such a district?  Only the Dims.

They would not have if it didn't look like they had a chance, you fucking imbecile. Compare this race to the one the same day in South Carolina.

[Odin]

(06-22-2017, 02:29 AM)Galen Wrote: and over sampling the polls

Yep, you're a moron.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-22-2017, 02:29 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-21-2017, 04:14 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Atlanta reminds me of how the Bay Area was 30 years ago. We had very Left urban cores meanwhile our burbs were solid GOP territory. I can't imagine the GOP did well with the true urban core areas (assuming there were any in that district). BTW, the last time a Democrat won it was the predecessor to Gingrich. Over 40 years ago. The fact that a Millennial Democrat came within a hair's breadth of winning is somewhat of an omen.

Normally with this many special elections at least one or two seats should have flipped to Dims and this was one of the more likely ones.  None of them did and it took a seven times spending advantage and over sampling the polls like the media did last year to get this close.  The Dims still haven't learned anything and my guess is that their latest antics are in fact pissing people off.

I have often said that a fourth turning marks the end of an order and way of looking at things.  My suspicion is that when future history books are written they will say that the election of Trump marked the real end of the Progressive Era.  It looks like the next saeculum will be marked by the destruction of large entities including nation states.

My crystal ball is still hazy.  Yes, a lot of Democrats are portraying the opposition as deplorable and getting people angry.  See my notes to and about Eric.  As long as the Erics of the world are doing their thing, the reds are just going to become more stubborn and ticked off.

On the other hand, a true era ending crisis forming a new status quo requires ideals and a culture the country can get behind.  Large problems need to be solved.  As angry as the reds might get at the way they are being dumped upon, which would be very angry indeed, Trump has to build something sustainable.  Thus far, he hasn't shown the people skills to indicate he can do this.  Then too, the Reagan unraveling memes have been taken well beyond the point of getting constructive return.  Even if Trump had the people skills, the ideas he is selling to get votes are counter productive.

I need to watch the train wreck a bit longer.

[pbrower2a]

(06-21-2017, 02:38 PM)has validity only to the David Horn Wrote:

(06-21-2017, 02:18 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: ... I grew up blue, and you don’t have to work hard to get me pushing most blue positions.  (Most.  Let’s only briefly mention the Second Amendment.)  However, there are valid, well though out or deeply set in habit alternatives to the blue.  If one labels and thinks of the other guys as stupid, evil, ignorant, insane, brainwashed, etc… it is not the other guys who are ignorant.  There is, on both sides, a willful and deliberate effort to not understand, to remain ignorant, to demonize anyone who conflicts with one’s own culture...

Let me add a quick comment.  We need to be cautious of too much fairness too.  Balancing Position A on equal terms with Position B is fine, as long as both are at least arguable.  If either rests on a bed of fallacious assumptions, then balance actually favors lies over truth by giving those lies unjustified stature.  So yes, let's avoid demonizing people we disagree with, but let's not give a hand wave to bogus ideas either.  If we're fair about calling out the clearly false and only the clearly false, we are less likely to be framed as blind ideologues ourselves.

Although some truth is counter-intuitive, none is contrafactual. Granting equal time to Holocaust denial, young-Earth creationism, or the concepts of a flat or hollow earth as is given to their opposites is absurd.

It is far easier to see the logical fallacies in people with whom we disagree. Galen heavily trumpets the economic positions of Mises and Hayek as if they  were absolute, unqualified truth. Yes, even I have found Hayek worthy of discussion because he seems to be right on an issue as few others are. Hayek has a good explanation of the cause of a financial panic in the speculative boom that precedes it. Hayek offers historical evidence and a defensible mechanism for his conjecture. (Speculative booms devour and waste capital that might more wisely be invested in something more useful, if less glamorous and not as promising of quick and easy profits in something highly liquid). Hayek's Road to Serfdom offers a proof (to those who want socialism in the sense of government ownership and operation of productive enterprise) that although the idea of capitalist chaos gets better results than a planned economy in allocating resources is counter-intuitive and that the efficacy of central planning is contrafactual.  

But is Hayek an authority beyond criticism? No! There are valid alternatives on much that he says. Many find his idea that economic inequality is a desirable end repugnant. Economic growth that ensures great misery fails my humanist values. 

...Galen falls for the fallacy of authority. Authority has validity only to the value of the results that the alleged authority gets. The garage mechanic may have valid authority on solving problems that my car has, but  I would not ask him advice on questions on the core realities of the universe. But I wouldn't ask Neil DeGrasse Tyson what to do about an engine knock, either. A good auto mechanic can help me keep a car running over 100,000 miles and not have to trade a car in. (Of course, the car needs oil changes, and those are an inexpensive alternative to trading in one car for another).