I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[Warren Dew]

(06-07-2020, 11:11 AM)Isoko Wrote: I was born in 1988. Supposedly this was the time of a 3T. When I was a kid, the 1990s was like a golden age for Britain. The new millennium was coming. The future was going to be bright. I remember the music of those times, the culture, even the adverts on the TV, portrayed the golden age we were living in and the times to come.

In the UK, it was known as the period of 'cool Britannia' and the future was only going to get better. It is thought that the 1990s in the West was like a second 1960s. Considering that your main bases of liberal opposition really started to get going in this period, I'd argue that this was like a weird 1T/2T hybrid.

Don't be fooled by the leftist propaganda that permeates these boards.  This is exactly what third turnings are like.  The Roaring 20s was the previous third turning, and they were equally viewed as good at the time.

Second turnings are full of strife.  First turnings are full of voluntary oppression.  Third turnings are the true high point of the cycle.

Quote:After 2001 however, things just started to slowly get worse. The optimism died out and nothing became the same again. It was like an unraveling set in. The optimism of the 1990s vanished in an instant and ever since, it has been one bleak event after another. I'd argue in essence this was the start of a true 3T. 

I can agree with the concepts of cusps but I really do feel the 4T has begun and what we had all been living in was an unraveling period. Life will never be the same after covid and it is going to change the world.

This is why some people date, or used to date, the crisis period to 2001 or 2003.  Covid is just another in the sequence of increasing crisis reactions.

[Tim Randal Walker]

This 4T Compares to....

Archived thread, in which the Glorious Revolution is discussed.

Quoting from this thread:

The Grey Badger said "The Glorious Revolution was the climax of the Culture Wars that had been building since Ann Boleyn was Queen Consort."


1990 said "...we might be looking at an equivalent of the Glorious Revolution 4T...that 4T, like this one, began gradually and stayed rather anticlimactic and sporadic until the actual revolution in 1688 (13 years into the turning).

1990 also said "...like our current confusion, the Glorious Revolution 4T proceeded slowly and subtly, as culture war ridiculousness peaked and a quiet malaise took hold."

[Tim Randal Walker]

Okay, for USA we should consider 9/11 the first real event of the Cascade phase. (Being so spectacular, I expect future historians to deem this the 4T start). But not immediately triggering a full Crisis mood. Ironically, with a somewhat immature generational constellation, this 4T started with a Phony Fourth.

Which turned into a Malaise. The cascade continued, 4T like changes occurred such as party realignment (and the weird Indian Autumn was possible). But the malaise mood continued until Covid 19 pushed us into full Crisis mood.

[LPDec63]

I think that the actual battle lines of this "Cold Civil War" 4T were set in the botched election in Florida in the year 2000. The fact that there was no clear winner on Election Night, and that it actually went to the SC to determine a winner were very jolting at the time. The Shock of that election was largely forgotten because Team Blue accepted the result even if we were not happy about it. And of course because 9/11 happened less then a year later.

But, that was the night that "blue state" and "red state" became widely understood terms. Because those were the colors that the networks used that night on their Electoral College maps. I believe that before that night Blue was incumbent party in the WH, and Red meant challenging party. It was that disrupted election night that set the tone for the cascade that has followed. That being said, the fact that the Blue States accepted it without too much protest shows that it was a 3rd turning event. But it gave the Culture War two teams and a Map.

[David Horn]

(06-07-2020, 10:47 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: We should consider that there  may be cusps/transition periods between turnings.  A handful of years in which the mood of previous turning is gradually fading, while there are subtle hints of a new turning.

In USA, such was the case with the last 2T/3T transition.

Very true, but even more pronounced in this transition. Let's be honest, it's been one thing after another for nearly 2 decades.  Start with 9/11-- certainly far too preseasonal to trigger a transition, but none the less very dramatic.  Follow that with GWBs abandonment of the effort to corner al Qaeda in Afghanistan and starting an idiotic war in Iraq instead. Follow that with Hurricane Katrina, the Great Recession and the long climb out of that hole, to the mess we created by hiring a reality TV host to run the country.  We were already tired long before the COVID-19 pandemic arrived on the scene.

Somewhere in the middle of those events, we will be able to pick a point in time that was the beginning of the 4T.  2008 is the most likely choice, with the Great Recession being the trigger, but that may not prove to be the case in retrospect.  We achieved the Chinese curse of living in interesting times.  How interesting is still TBD.  We're still on the way to an unknown end of this 4T.

[sbarrera]

We can split the time between 2008 and now into the Obama era and the Trump era. I agree that the mood of the Obama era did not feel very 4T, even though the Great Finanical Crisis really was a big deal. Huge finanical organizations vanished overnight. The government response was massive. Occupy Wall Street followed fast on its heels. Isoko, maybe you were too young to get the sense of it, but it was a big turning point. But then the outrage at the bailouts kind of petered out. I actually thought you could have called the rest of the Obama years after OWS the 'Phony Fourth' - like the 'Phony War' after the invasion of Poland and before the Blitz, when England was technically at war but didn't feel like it. Then 2016 came along and that was when it really felt like We Be 4T to me. 2020 is just that mood intensifying. I mean, really intensifying.

[sbarrera]

There are some things that happened during the Obama era "Phony Fourth Turning" that are *really* Fourth Turning, namely that some of the Culture Wars conflicts got settled. Specifically-

Marijuana legalization
Gay rights
and...dare I say it... universal access to healthcare, which Obamacare does implement, if clumsily.

[User3451]

(06-08-2020, 08:02 AM)LPDec63 Wrote: I think that the actual battle lines of this "Cold Civil War" 4T were set in the botched election in Florida in the year 2000.  The fact that there was no clear winner on Election Night, and that it actually went to the SC to determine a winner were very jolting at the time.  The Shock of that election was largely forgotten because Team Blue accepted the result even if we were not happy about it.   And of course because 9/11 happened less then a year later.  

But, that was the night that "blue state" and "red state" became widely understood terms.  Because those were the colors that the networks used that night on their Electoral College maps.  I believe that before that night Blue was incumbent party in the WH, and Red meant challenging party.  It was that disrupted election night that set the tone for the cascade that has followed.  That being said, the fact that the Blue States accepted it without too much protest shows that it was a 3rd turning event.   But it gave the Culture War two teams and a Map.

I had the same thoughts on the Red State/Blue State recently!

The Gore and Bush contest really kicked off the very beginnings of the 4T IMO. Yes, 9/11 was still 3T, but both the election and then 9/11 were cusp.

It was during this time that the 4T Red State and Blue State "teams" really crystallized. On the one hand, Suburban and Urban professionals decided en masse that no good person could be a Republican, and every good person was a Democrat. On the other, Republicans started to see their culture as entirely separate from the Coastal states.

Then 2008 happened, Obama was elected, and the 4T really took over IMO. By 2008 the cusp was over and it was full blown 4T.

Amongst the 4T responses since 2008:


Cannabis is now seen as legal and normal, whereas in the 3T everybody treaded water and said legalization would never happen

Gay marriage became commonplace and completely normal, whereas in the 3T Democrats demonized

Occupy Wall Street took over Zucotti Square for months on end, whereas in the 3T WTO battles there was no real sympathy for protesters

The Tea Party was formed and unhinged lunatics had a common banner to fight under, whereas in the 3T politicians rushed to the center

Opiate abuse spiraled to heretofore unseen levels in white communities in the Red States, whereas before, these issues were relegated to poor black communities

Obama created a form of national healthcare, whereas Hillary said it would never happen

The rise of Bernie Sanders was clearly 4T

As was the repudiation of Hillary Clinton

Trump inexplicably won the election in 2016

As I've thought about it recently, the regeneracy happened right in front of our noses: the rise of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are very clearly the regeneracy. This regeneracy has two different poles.

Now, with Sars 2 and the riots and the protests, this is the final crisis.

I expect this 4T to end in about 2025, after the financial crisis has ravaged the world the United States will have a green new deal of sorts and a new social safety net.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-08-2020, 01:22 PM)User3451 Wrote: As I've thought about it recently, the regeneracy happened right in front of our noses: the rise of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are very clearly the regeneracy. This regeneracy has two different poles.

I'd disagree.  In the regeneracy, the new values get pretty much crushed by a progressive group taking over with clean backing from the people.  Between COVID and the protests this could finally happen.

Two people holding opposite points of view is very 3T.  It may have been 4T by generation alignment, but the pre trigger crisis is just an extension of the 3T with bigger catalysts.

[sbarrera]

(06-08-2020, 01:31 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 01:22 PM)User3451 Wrote: As I've thought about it recently, the regeneracy happened right in front of our noses: the rise of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are very clearly the regeneracy. This regeneracy has two different poles.

I'd disagree.  In the regeneracy, the new values get pretty much crushed by a progressive group taking over with clean backing from the people.  Between COVID and the protests this could finally happen.

Two people holding opposite points of view is very 3T.  It may have been 4T by generation alignment, but the pre trigger crisis is just an extension of the 3T with bigger catalysts.

A two pole regeneracy is a civil war. Which might be where we are - the blue state has the numbers and the red state has the weaponry.

[David Horn]

(06-08-2020, 05:05 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 01:31 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 01:22 PM)User3451 Wrote: As I've thought about it recently, the regeneracy happened right in front of our noses: the rise of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are very clearly the regeneracy. This regeneracy has two different poles.

I'd disagree.  In the regeneracy, the new values get pretty much crushed by a progressive group taking over with clean backing from the people.  Between COVID and the protests this could finally happen.

Two people holding opposite points of view is very 3T.  It may have been 4T by generation alignment, but the pre trigger crisis is just an extension of the 3T with bigger catalysts.

A two pole regeneracy is a civil war. Which might be where we are - the blue state has the numbers and the red state has the weaponry.

H-m-m-m.  Sounds a lot like the ACW.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-08-2020, 06:41 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 05:05 PM)sbarrera Wrote: A two pole regeneracy is a civil war. Which might be where we are - the blue state has the numbers and the red state has the weaponry.

H-m-m-m.  Sounds a lot like the ACW.

Except the Civil War had violent catalysts in Bleeding Kansas and Harper's Ferry leading up to it. These days, the spiral of violence is going no where, and both sides have adopted the popular vote as good enough to peacefully hand over power. Also, the Civil War was typical of the Industrial Age where both sides were eager to go to violence. Peaceful means wasn't really common yet. Thoreau wrote about it a little at the time of the Mexican War with his Civil Disobedience essay, but it was only with Ghandi and King that it took off.

[Tim Randal Walker]

To add to Bob Butler's post, this time around we don't have an issue quite as divisive as slavery.

I think the Glorious Revolution is a somewhat closer analogy than the ACW.

[User3451]

(06-08-2020, 05:05 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 01:31 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 01:22 PM)User3451 Wrote: As I've thought about it recently, the regeneracy happened right in front of our noses: the rise of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are very clearly the regeneracy. This regeneracy has two different poles.

I'd disagree.  In the regeneracy, the new values get pretty much crushed by a progressive group taking over with clean backing from the people.  Between COVID and the protests this could finally happen.

Two people holding opposite points of view is very 3T.  It may have been 4T by generation alignment, but the pre trigger crisis is just an extension of the 3T with bigger catalysts.

A two pole regeneracy is a civil war. Which might be where we are - the blue state has the numbers and the red state has the weaponry.

Yep. A cold civil war.

[Eric the Green]

(06-08-2020, 09:40 PM)User3451 Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 05:05 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 01:31 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 01:22 PM)User3451 Wrote: As I've thought about it recently, the regeneracy happened right in front of our noses: the rise of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are very clearly the regeneracy. This regeneracy has two different poles.

I'd disagree.  In the regeneracy, the new values get pretty much crushed by a progressive group taking over with clean backing from the people.  Between COVID and the protests this could finally happen.

Two people holding opposite points of view is very 3T.  It may have been 4T by generation alignment, but the pre trigger crisis is just an extension of the 3T with bigger catalysts.

A two pole regeneracy is a civil war. Which might be where we are - the blue state has the numbers and the red state has the weaponry.

Yep. A cold civil war.

I'm with Steve and User on that one. For sure, the regeneracy has been under way for some time. It is the people rising up, as they have over several issues over the whole time of the Trump presidency. We are a divided country, and that is not because of a delayed regeneracy; it is because that IS the crisis. Cold civil war, with a danger of it getting hotter this decade.

[Eric the Green]

(06-08-2020, 07:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 06:41 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 05:05 PM)sbarrera Wrote: A two pole regeneracy is a civil war. Which might be where we are - the blue state has the numbers and the red state has the weaponry.

H-m-m-m.  Sounds a lot like the ACW.

Except the Civil War had violent catalysts in Bleeding Kansas and Harper's Ferry leading up to it.  These days, the spiral of violence is going no where, and both sides have adopted the popular vote as good enough to peacefully hand over power.  Also, the Civil War was typical of the Industrial Age where both sides were eager to go to violence.  Peaceful means wasn't really common yet.  Thoreau wrote about it a little at the time of the Mexican War with his Civil Disobedience essay, but it was only with Ghandi and King that it took off.

Yes, history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. We can hope the means of fighting our civil war are more peaceful, as they have been so far. But we have been in the 1850s redux. 1861 is probably still 5 years away. Riots and police violence are certainly on the increase right now. We don't know how far this spiral will turn.

[Eric the Green]

(06-08-2020, 01:22 PM)User3451 Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 08:02 AM)LPDec63 Wrote: I think that the actual battle lines of this "Cold Civil War" 4T were set in the botched election in Florida in the year 2000.  The fact that there was no clear winner on Election Night, and that it actually went to the SC to determine a winner were very jolting at the time.  The Shock of that election was largely forgotten because Team Blue accepted the result even if we were not happy about it.   And of course because 9/11 happened less then a year later.  

But, that was the night that "blue state" and "red state" became widely understood terms.  Because those were the colors that the networks used that night on their Electoral College maps.  I believe that before that night Blue was incumbent party in the WH, and Red meant challenging party.  It was that disrupted election night that set the tone for the cascade that has followed.  That being said, the fact that the Blue States accepted it without too much protest shows that it was a 3rd turning event.   But it gave the Culture War two teams and a Map.

I had the same thoughts on the Red State/Blue State recently!

The Gore and Bush contest really kicked off the very beginnings of the 4T IMO. Yes, 9/11 was still 3T, but both the election and then 9/11 were cusp.

It was during this time that the 4T Red State and Blue State "teams" really crystallized. On the one hand, Suburban and Urban professionals decided en masse that no good person could be a Republican, and every good person was a Democrat. On the other, Republicans started to see their culture as entirely separate from the Coastal states.

Then 2008 happened, Obama was elected, and the 4T really took over IMO. By 2008 the cusp was over and it was full blown 4T.

Amongst the 4T responses since 2008:


Cannabis is now seen as legal and normal, whereas in the 3T everybody treaded water and said legalization would never happen

Gay marriage became commonplace and completely normal, whereas in the 3T Democrats demonized

Occupy Wall Street took over Zucotti Square for months on end, whereas in the 3T WTO battles there was no real sympathy for protesters

The Tea Party was formed and unhinged lunatics had a common banner to fight under, whereas in the 3T politicians rushed to the center

Opiate abuse spiraled to heretofore unseen levels in white communities in the Red States, whereas before, these issues were relegated to poor black communities

Obama created a form of national healthcare, whereas Hillary said it would never happen

The rise of Bernie Sanders was clearly 4T

As was the repudiation of Hillary Clinton

Trump inexplicably won the election in 2016

As I've thought about it recently, the regeneracy happened right in front of our noses: the rise of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are very clearly the regeneracy. This regeneracy has two different poles.

Now, with Sars 2 and the riots and the protests, this is the final crisis.

I expect this 4T to end in about 2025, after the financial crisis has ravaged the world the United States will have a green new deal of sorts and a new social safety net.

Very good summaries from LPDec63 and User3451.

I would just make this correction. Hillary Rodham Clinton may have been an inadequate candidate, but she is treated very unfairly in many ways by the left and the right. She was the original sponsor of healthcare reform in 1993, and she advocated it in her 2008 campaign, and pushed Obama to the left on it. She advocated the mandate and Obama did not, but Obama adopted it.

Bernie Sanders is clearly the rise of a new regeneracy, and he brings back a populist progressive movement that has pushed the Democratic Party somewhat more leftward than Hillary's candidacy took it.

The 4T may end in 2025, but I see that as an era that will be similar to Pearl Harbor, D-Day, or Ft. Sumpter. It will be a decisive year, but I agree with Mr. Howe that the 4T will end sometime between 2028 and 2030. The entire 2020s will be a decade of crisis and change. The saeculum is actually a bit longer than 84 years, and it is slowing down to a regular speed after the events of World War Two (Battle of the Bulge ended it sooner) and the JFK assassination (speeded up the Awakening era's arrival) made the cycle go faster and those turnings end too soon.

[User3451]

(06-08-2020, 11:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 01:22 PM)User3451 Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 08:02 AM)LPDec63 Wrote: I think that the actual battle lines of this "Cold Civil War" 4T were set in the botched election in Florida in the year 2000.  The fact that there was no clear winner on Election Night, and that it actually went to the SC to determine a winner were very jolting at the time.  The Shock of that election was largely forgotten because Team Blue accepted the result even if we were not happy about it.   And of course because 9/11 happened less then a year later.  

But, that was the night that "blue state" and "red state" became widely understood terms.  Because those were the colors that the networks used that night on their Electoral College maps.  I believe that before that night Blue was incumbent party in the WH, and Red meant challenging party.  It was that disrupted election night that set the tone for the cascade that has followed.  That being said, the fact that the Blue States accepted it without too much protest shows that it was a 3rd turning event.   But it gave the Culture War two teams and a Map.

I had the same thoughts on the Red State/Blue State recently!

The Gore and Bush contest really kicked off the very beginnings of the 4T IMO. Yes, 9/11 was still 3T, but both the election and then 9/11 were cusp.

It was during this time that the 4T Red State and Blue State "teams" really crystallized. On the one hand, Suburban and Urban professionals decided en masse that no good person could be a Republican, and every good person was a Democrat. On the other, Republicans started to see their culture as entirely separate from the Coastal states.

Then 2008 happened, Obama was elected, and the 4T really took over IMO. By 2008 the cusp was over and it was full blown 4T.

Amongst the 4T responses since 2008:


Cannabis is now seen as legal and normal, whereas in the 3T everybody treaded water and said legalization would never happen

Gay marriage became commonplace and completely normal, whereas in the 3T Democrats demonized

Occupy Wall Street took over Zucotti Square for months on end, whereas in the 3T WTO battles there was no real sympathy for protesters

The Tea Party was formed and unhinged lunatics had a common banner to fight under, whereas in the 3T politicians rushed to the center

Opiate abuse spiraled to heretofore unseen levels in white communities in the Red States, whereas before, these issues were relegated to poor black communities

Obama created a form of national healthcare, whereas Hillary said it would never happen

The rise of Bernie Sanders was clearly 4T

As was the repudiation of Hillary Clinton

Trump inexplicably won the election in 2016

As I've thought about it recently, the regeneracy happened right in front of our noses: the rise of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are very clearly the regeneracy. This regeneracy has two different poles.

Now, with Sars 2 and the riots and the protests, this is the final crisis.

I expect this 4T to end in about 2025, after the financial crisis has ravaged the world the United States will have a green new deal of sorts and a new social safety net.

Very good summaries from LPDec63 and User3451.

I would just make this correction. Hillary Rodham Clinton may have been an inadequate candidate, but she is treated very unfairly in many ways by the left and the right. She was the original sponsor of healthcare reform in 1993, and she advocated it in her 2008 campaign, and pushed Obama to the left on it. She advocated the mandate and Obama did not, but Obama adopted it.

Bernie Sanders is clearly the rise of a new regeneracy, and he brings back a populist progressive movement that has pushed the Democratic Party somewhat more leftward than Hillary's candidacy took it.

The 4T may end in 2025, but I see that as an era that will be similar to Pearl Harbor, D-Day, or Ft. Sumpter. It will be a decisive year, but I agree with Mr. Howe that the 4T will end sometime between 2028 and 2030. The entire 2020s will be a decade of crisis and change. The saeculum is actually a bit longer than 84 years, and it is slowing down to a regular speed after the events of World War Two (Battle of the Bulge ended it sooner) and the JFK assassination (speeded up the Awakening era's arrival) made the cycle go faster and those turnings end too soon.

I don't know that Hillary being treated fairly on unfairly has anything to do with it.

Hillary was a 3T candidate in a 4T election. In fact, she was a 3T candidate in a 4T election back in 2008.

Most of Hillary's support came from older Democrats, Boomers went crazy for her while Millenials did not like her at all. 

Hillary was a general in the culture wars. She went to battle with the Republicans, losing some battles and winning others. 

Bernie is clearly one of the archetypes for a Grey Champion, as S&H envinisioned. I think Trump fits the bill too. I'm sure there are others. Hillary is the right age to be a Grey Champion, but she did/does not champion the causes of the 4T. 

My understanding is that Obama ran on a 4T platform, and beat out Clinton who ran on a 3T platform. Obama may have promised 4T values, but governed as a 3T president. In 2015-2016, Clinton tried to go back to the same 3T well and folks weren't having any of it. I don't think it's because she was judged unfairly (she may have been) but it was because she was running on 3T values.

[David Horn]

(06-08-2020, 07:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 06:41 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-08-2020, 05:05 PM)sbarrera Wrote: A two pole regeneracy is a civil war. Which might be where we are - the blue state has the numbers and the red state has the weaponry.

H-m-m-m.  Sounds a lot like the ACW.

Except the Civil War had violent catalysts in Bleeding Kansas and Harper's Ferry leading up to it.  These days, the spiral of violence is going no where, and both sides have adopted the popular vote as good enough to peacefully hand over power.  Also, the Civil War was typical of the Industrial Age where both sides were eager to go to violence.  Peaceful means wasn't really common yet.  Thoreau wrote about it a little at the time of the Mexican War with his Civil Disobedience essay, but it was only with Ghandi and King that it took off.

These days, 'war' can be fought without the need of actual combat, because the 'war' itself can exist in a different context entirely.  Let's assume that this 'war' is economic.  What are the weapons?  A lot of them are productive units like factories that exist where they are.  On the other hand, some are totally mobile -- the analogy isn't precise.  But we do know where the people reside: more in Blue than Red areas by far.  If I'm wrong and it comes to actual violence, I suspect the 2nd Amendment folks won't rush to the battlements if it means fighting a modern military, so the 'war' may be self limiting.

[LPDec63]

I believe the next election is going to be a major catalyst, not a resolution. If there is to be violence, it will be because of Team Red's armed militias, or Team Blue raising up in anger if there are election shenanigans. (I think the only way Red wins is Shenanigans.) And I believe that Reds will not lay down gently with a Blue win. They are fueled by Internet Trolls and Conspiracy theories that literally say Hillary Clinton leads a child sex slavery ring and that Bill Gates wants to inject control chips in everyone through vaccines. (I'm not kidding, there are millions that believe things like this.)