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I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008
This article appeared today in the Project Syndicate and RealClearMarkets.com. Regardless of when you date the beginning of this Fourth Turning, there should really be little argument that a full-blown crisis is underway now, one that shall surely usher in a new civic order. The summary of the article below pretty much accords with my own view of the colossal crisis in which America—and indeed, much of the world—now finds itself.

The Triple Crisis Shaking the World

Jun 26, 2020JOSCHKA FISCHER

More than just a public-health disaster, the COVID-19 pandemic is a history-defining event with far-reaching implications for the global distribution of wealth and power. With economies in free-fall and geopolitical tensions rising, there can be no return to normal: the past is passed, and only the future counts now.


https://www.project-syndicate.org/commen...er-2020-06

Just passing through—for now...
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(06-29-2020, 10:36 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(06-29-2020, 10:14 AM)David Horn Wrote: If we look back at how the previous triggers were defused and responses arrayed against each other, it's not surprising that it took something straight forward and devastating as watching a man die in front of us to overcome the ability of the manipulators to manipulate, though the RW talking heads are still giving it their best. I think 2008 was the real trigger, and the replay we're in now is making that clear.  That said, I still have a hard time knowing where this goes beyond the 2020 election.  Dems are notorious for dropping the ball.

2008 was not the real trigger.  It did not make the new values, a regeneracy or the crisis heart nigh on inevitable.  Obama chose not to go after the Wall Street people, and lost the congress, thus the endless red - blue debate went on.

A catalyst, sure.  It shaped how everybody viewed the economy.  The trigger, no.

Like Mike, I use those terms interchangeably.  In any case, this is a perfect example of the use of perception management.  After the Uber Bankers and Czars of Wall Street managed to drive the economy into the ground, they got what they needed to rebound, then sold the public on the idea that the debt was too high and it was time to do less.  They've done the same this time.  So far, the economy seems not adequately important to trigger outrage.  That doesn't bode well for that problem being addressed in more than a perfunctory manner during this 4T.  Unfortunately, the other issues arise from the maldistribution of wealth, so they may be papered over as well.  If so, we may be back to viewing a failed 4T.  On the other hand, doing less for the average person this time may lead to catastrophic failure of the economy, with far to little money chasing goods and services.  

We'll have to see whether the Dems can actually deliver for a change.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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(06-29-2020, 11:42 AM)David Horn Wrote: Like Mike, I use those terms interchangeably.  In any case, this is a perfect example of the use of perception management.  After the Uber Bankers and Czars of Wall Street managed to drive the economy into the ground, they got what they needed to rebound, then sold the public on the idea that the debt was too high and it was time to do less.  They've done the same this time.  So far, the economy seems not adequately important to trigger outrage.  That doesn't bode well for that problem being addressed in more than a perfunctory manner during this 4T.  Unfortunately, the other issues arise from the maldistribution of wealth, so they may be papered over as well.  If so, we may be back to viewing a failed 4T.  On the other hand, doing less for the average person this time may lead to catastrophic failure of the economy, with far to little money chasing goods and services.  

We'll have to see whether the Dems can actually deliver for a change.

I believe there is a big difference between the two sort of events. One illustrates that there are major flaws in the existing system. The other results in a commitment to switch to the new values, a regeneracy and the crisis core. By no means did we switch firmly to the new values in 2008. Most of what Obama did was undone with the approval of his base by Trump. Was it significant? Yes. Did it make a transition to the new values inevitable? No.
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(06-29-2020, 11:42 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(06-29-2020, 10:36 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(06-29-2020, 10:14 AM)David Horn Wrote: If we look back at how the previous triggers were defused and responses arrayed against each other, it's not surprising that it took something straight forward and devastating as watching a man die in front of us to overcome the ability of the manipulators to manipulate, though the RW talking heads are still giving it their best. I think 2008 was the real trigger, and the replay we're in now is making that clear.  That said, I still have a hard time knowing where this goes beyond the 2020 election.  Dems are notorious for dropping the ball.

2008 was not the real trigger.  It did not make the new values, a regeneracy or the crisis heart nigh on inevitable.  Obama chose not to go after the Wall Street people, and lost the congress, thus the endless red - blue debate went on.

A catalyst, sure.  It shaped how everybody viewed the economy.  The trigger, no.

Like Mike, I use those terms interchangeably.  In any case, this is a perfect example of the use of perception management.  After the Uber Bankers and Czars of Wall Street managed to drive the economy into the ground, they got what they needed to rebound, then sold the public on the idea that the debt was too high and it was time to do less.  They've done the same this time.  So far, the economy seems not adequately important to trigger outrage.  That doesn't bode well for that problem being addressed in more than a perfunctory manner during this 4T.  Unfortunately, the other issues arise from the maldistribution of wealth, so they may be papered over as well.  If so, we may be back to viewing a failed 4T.  On the other hand, doing less for the average person this time may lead to catastrophic failure of the economy, with far to little money chasing goods and services.  

We'll have to see whether the Dems can actually deliver for a change.
2008 and it's aftermath was an opportunity to make those big, structural, economic changes, but Obama went back to the 3T well for solution

Now it's coming around again, and ignoring the problem or distracting the plebs with woke politics, or blaming Trump just so they can go back to 3T solutions, those paths lead to disaster. 

2008 is an opportunity to change, we refused. Now it's do or die imo

And yes, allt these racial issues ultimately spring from material circumstances. Anyone who disagrees is probably an unapologetic neoliberal and wants to prolong the 3T again
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(06-29-2020, 10:47 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Just passing through—for now...

A short stay but a welcome one. Come by often.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
(06-29-2020, 01:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(06-29-2020, 11:42 AM)David Horn Wrote: Like Mike, I use those terms interchangeably.  In any case, this is a perfect example of the use of perception management.  After the Uber Bankers and Czars of Wall Street managed to drive the economy into the ground, they got what they needed to rebound, then sold the public on the idea that the debt was too high and it was time to do less.  They've done the same this time.  So far, the economy seems not adequately important to trigger outrage.  That doesn't bode well for that problem being addressed in more than a perfunctory manner during this 4T.  Unfortunately, the other issues arise from the maldistribution of wealth, so they may be papered over as well.  If so, we may be back to viewing a failed 4T.  On the other hand, doing less for the average person this time may lead to catastrophic failure of the economy, with far to little money chasing goods and services.  

We'll have to see whether the Dems can actually deliver for a change.

I believe there is a big difference between the two sort of events.  One illustrates that there are major flaws in the existing system.  The other results in a commitment to switch to the new values, a regeneracy and the crisis core.  By no means did we switch firmly to the new values in 2008.  Most of what Obama did was undone with the approval of his base by Trump.  Was it significant?  Yes.  Did it make a transition to the new values inevitable?  No.

Like Mike, you assume that progress must be at least approximately linear.  There can be progress in retrenchment too.  Take the Affordable Care Act.  It was hated by most until it came under fire by the Trumpists.  At best, it's a lukewarm solution to a blazing hot problem, but one that was intractable for decades. Now, it's accepted that some intervention in the insurance market is a must. So place the marker.  Was the act of creation the greater or lesser contributor to progress?

Then set the marker. Here I agree with Mike: nothing happens immediately. It's hard to organize a true change of any kind, and the greater the change, the more complex the organizational challenge.  I put the initiating date in immediate proximity to the financial collapse in '08. That the war went silent for a while doesn't change that.  It also fails to predict success or failure.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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(06-29-2020, 10:14 AM)David Horn Wrote: Your points are all well taken, but this era is also different in both the tools to affect change and the tools to resist it.  There is a field know as perception management that exists solely to manipulate the thinking of people susceptible to being manipulated -- frankly, most of us.

Manipulation works when politics remains about the abstract, as it usually is. But what makes a crisis a crisis is politics ceases to be abstract. This  pandemic is a real thing. In the last month some elites have tried to make it political, that is abstract--you don't have to wear a mask, you can go to crowded indoor venues and nothing bad will happen to you. Cases are now rising rapidly, while deaths are flat. Will that remain the case? If it doesn't, the rising cases will become a real thing.

Right now people who lost their jobs are getting generous unemployment. That ends in a month. I doubt everyone will be back at work, so people will no longer have income. They will not be able to pay rent. They will either be evicted or the landlord will suffer a loss in income and will be unable to service the mortgage. Either they go bankrupt or the banks will have large numbers of non-performing loans. The banks will become insolvent or the Fed will bail them out with created money. But if this happens, why should ANYONE pay their rent, or their debts? Just renege, and the Fed will put up the cash. You cannot run a society, much less an economy if nobody has to be responsible anymore.

The government could decide to have the common people bear the entire burden--let millions lose their homes and have to move in with their relatives, who will resent it. Perception management will not make that reality go away. People know they have been getting checks. When that stops they will notice it.

Quote:If we look back at how the previous triggers were defused and responses arrayed against each other, it's not surprising that it took something straight forward and devastating as watching a man die in front of us to overcome the ability of the manipulators to manipulate, though the RW talking heads are still giving it their best. I think 2008 was the real trigger, and the replay we're in now is making that clear.  That said, I still have a hard time knowing where this goes beyond the 2020 election.  Dems are notorious for dropping the ball.

If Dems drop the ball then 2020 will just be another potential trigger that didn't trigger anything. The shit will keep hitting the fan and there will be more potential triggers. In some ways one might say were entered a crisis era in 1860 and did not leave it until 1942.
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(06-29-2020, 03:49 PM)User3451 Wrote: 2008 and it's aftermath was an opportunity to make those big, structural, economic changes, but Obama went back to the 3T well for solution

Now it's coming around again, and ignoring the problem or distracting the plebs with woke politics, or blaming Trump just so they can go back to 3T solutions, those paths lead to disaster. 

2008 is an opportunity to change, we refused. Now it's do or die imo

And yes, all these racial issues ultimately spring from material circumstances. Anyone who disagrees is probably an unapologetic neoliberal and wants to prolong the 3T again

Success breeds success. Failure is no different in that regard. So the trick is not to shoot for the unacceptable, because the support you think you have will pull away from too large an ask. Then again,. don't ask for less than the people are willing to give either. In other words, there's risk on both sides.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply


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