Countdown to a Free America

[Eric the Green]

(05-01-2017, 12:30 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: May 1, International Labor Day... but for President Trump, Loyalty (to our Great and Glorious Leader Who really won a landslide in the electoral and popular vote except for fraud by Democrats -- snark intended) Day.

1359 days to go. His despotic style deserves no loyalty. Maybe it gets pretended loyalty out of fear.

I wouldn't be surprised if Herr Trump proposes to make June 14 a national holiday.

[pbrower2a]

We have survived six months of this dreadful President, one eighth of the way through America as a Republic in Name Only.

Time left as I started this post:

It is 1279 days, 17 hours, 14 minutes, 56 seconds

until this horrid term ends.

This Jul 20 is the

38th anniversary of the late Neil setting foot on the moon

and the 73rd anniversary of the failed plot to assassinate Adolf Hitler (not that I am giving any ideas).

[Eric the Green]

Trump style

[pbrower2a]

I missed the 56th birthday of the last good President that we have ever had... but it is still August 4 in the Pacific Time Zone and in the place in which he was born (Hawaii -- it is a but after 9 AM on August 5 in Kenya, where he was not born contrary to any still-believing 'birthers').

Happy belated birthday, Mr. Last Real President for a while -- at least the last President worth imitating.

1264 days
30346 hours
1820817 minutes
109249065 seconds

until Wednesday, January 20, 2021 at 9:00:00 am (Sunnyvale time)
Zoom

It is 1264 days, 10 hours, 57 minutes, 45 seconds

[pbrower2a]

It is 1169 days, 8 hours, 4 minutes, 24 seconds

A bit less painful after last night's elections.  

Virginia:

Quote:RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Democrats nearly wiped out Republicans’ overwhelming majority in the Virginia House of Delegates on Tuesday, with a handful of races that will decide control of the body remaining too close to call.

Democrats picked up at least 13 of the 17 seats they would need to retake the chamber for the first time in two decades.

“It really is an unprecedented result we’re seeing,” House Democratic Caucus Leader David Toscano said. The last time Democrats picked up more than five seats was 1975, according to Toscano.

This election season, where all 100 seats were up for grabs, saw Democrats make their most energetic push in years to gain ground against Republicans. Sixty of the 100 seats were contested by candidates of both major parties, more than in any year for at least two decades.

The House gains were part of a stellar night for Democrats, who swept all three statewide races. Together, the outcomes will be seen as an overwhelming victory for those opposed to President Donald Trump and as a potential predictor for next year’s midterm election, when control of Congress and many more statehouses will be up for grabs.

Heading into Tuesday, Democrats said they were confident, but many analysts expected them to pick up no more than a handful of seats.

Republicans maintained throughout the campaign season that they would hold their majority. Their years in power helped them build up a significant cash advantage, and they argued that voters in local races care about local issues — not what’s going on in Washington.

“Obviously, tonight was a difficult night and the outcome is not what anyone expected,” Matt Moran, spokesman for the House Republican Caucus, said in a statement Tuesday night.

Among the party’s influx of candidates this year were a record 43 women, many of whom said they were inspired by Hillary Clinton’s defeat to jump into politics for the first time.

One of the Democratic newcomers will be Danica Roem, a transgender woman who unseated Bob Marshall, one of the chamber’s longest serving and most conservative members. Earlier this year, Marshall sponsored a bill that would have limited the bathrooms transgender people can use.

Roem will be Virginia’s first openly transgender lawmaker. She will also make history as the first openly transgender person elected and seated in a state legislature, according to the Victory Fund, a political action committee that works to get openly LGBTQ people elected.

Several other Democratic women also made history Tuesday night: Hala Ayala and Elizabeth Guzman will be the chamber’s first Latina members, and Kathy Tran will be its first female Asian-American member.

In the Blacksburg area, Chris Hurst, a former Virginia news anchor whose journalist girlfriend was fatally shot during a live broadcast in 2015, defeated a Republican incumbent.

House Democratic Caucus Chair Charniele Herring said the pickups will change the tenor of the chamber, even if it doesn’t flip to Democratic control. It will give Democrats more seats on committees and put issues like Medicaid expansion into play, she said.

http://wric.com/2017/11/07/virginia-demo...ver-house/

[pbrower2a]

Time may be passing so slowly that we forget that the last Martin Luther King anniversary was observed when Barack Obama was President. Barely, but this is still true.

The President that we now have has disparaged countries in which people resembling Martin Luther King as $#!+holes, and preferring that people seeking to start new lives in America would come from countries whose peoples are largely light-skinned (like Norway). But let us understand well -- no matter how underdeveloped a country is in its economics and how rotten its political system... I suppose that one could have described the Jim Crow South, let alone Nazi Germany, as political  $#!+holes, too ... very good people can come from thoroughly-rotten places.

This is the sort of thing that made the American South (and in those days Oklahoma was Southern in its politics)  a laughing stock on race relations.



For the definitive $!+hole, just think of what happened behind a gate like this:



All in the name of either white supremacy or "Aryan" power.

Sure, Donald Trump isn't "that bad". That is no excuse.

It is 1101 days, 0 hours, 48 minutes, 26 seconds -- three years and six days. Three long years and six days.

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to...me=generic

[pbrower2a]

Happy Easter!

America will be off Donald Trump's Cross of Gold in

Inauguration 2021
Zoom
1025 days
24604 hours
1476293 minutes
88577596 seconds

until Wednesday, January 20, 2021 at 9:00:00 am (Sunnyvale time)


It is 1025 days, 4 hours, 53 minutes, 16 seconds

[Bob Butler 54]

I must admit to having a countdown timer to just the above event, but I find it depressing to look at the large size.

[Eric the Green]

Just a cautionary note again. Donald Trump is a powerful and entertaining speaker. "Everybody likes me," he said, and it's true that for some people he's "likable" and charismatic. He has ardent loyalty from his supporters. Defeating him in 2020 will not be easy. Remember the economy may still be OK, although I predict a recession that would hurt The Donald. But if I am wrong, then people may forgive all Trump's malfeasance because the economy is the main thing. If corporations spend their windfall wisely (a BIG IF), then there could be a trickle.

I would say the odds are just below even if Bernie Sanders is the nominee (horoscope score 14-7), and not that good if it's Biden (13-8). America has never elected a candidate for president who was 78 or 79 years old. Some of the other candidates now mentioned have no chance, such as Elizabeth Warren (8-7) , Cory Booker(6-7) and Kamala Harris (4-14). As we have seen over and over again, the candidate's ability as a candidate will determine the election.

Alan Lichtman's key system is worth paying attention to when the time comes. His record is not perfect though, as he sometimes claims. He was correct to predict Trump would win, but he didn't win the popular vote. But he claims credit for Gore winning the popular vote as a win for his system, even though he lost the electoral college. You can't have it both ways. Nevertheless, it's a historically-based system with a great record.

My horoscope system has a good track record too. The New Moon before the election method is usually correct, and has predicted the popular vote correctly every presidential election year since the 20th century began except 1988, 1968 and 1952. In 2020 it predicts that the incumbent will win the popular vote. However, in 2016 for the first time Uranus square the Ascendant (but not at the Nadir) showed a revolt against the Establishment, and the incumbent party lost. Uranus was also at the Nadir in 1952 when this happened. It will be square the Ascendant again but not at the Nadir in 2020. So, anything could happen. But it's unlikely that the Republican Party could win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. That has never happened. When the electoral college provided the winner and conflicted with the popular vote, it was always the Republican who was elected.

So with this scenario, it is critical that the Democratic candidate have a much better horoscope score than Donald Trump does. His score is good, 9-4, but such a score is not a sure thing; he can be defeated, as he almost was by Hillary who had a lower score (but the popular vote indicator on her side). In 1988 the New Moon predicted the incumbent Republicans would lose the popular vote, but George Bush's 14-6 score was far superior to Michael Dukakis' 2-10, and that made the difference. There are only three potential Democratic Party candidates who might have a chance whose score is higher in a significant way than The Donald's: Terry McAuliffe, Mitch Landrieu and Sherrod Brown. As I see it, the Democrats must nominate one of them to have a good chance of beating the entertaining, well-spoken demagogue.

Sherrod Brown is running for re-election in 2018 for Senator from Ohio. His horoscope score is 19-8. 8 negative points is a problem, but his positive score is higher than anyone's among those Democrats who are in a position to run. He would probably poll well in the Rust Belt, at least if he wins re-election, and that's a major asset against the Drump. He is a strong progressive and is against most trade deals.

Mitch Landrieu has the highest score among those who are in a position to run as Democrats, 16-2. There is some buzz for him as a presidential candidate because of his speech regarding removing confederate monuments and his good record as Mayor of New Orleans. He is doing a book tour on the subject of racism and his adventures with the monuments. His likability and skill in speaking and dealing with people is remarkable and well-known. He can appear as both a moderate-liberal and a progressive and get the confidence of both. He has become the leader of the US conference of mayors because the other mayors have confidence in him as a spokesman. Mayor is not a very high position from which to run for president though; nevertheless, he is probably the best choice if he runs.

Terry McAuliffe has a very good 11-2 score, which may be higher if he was born in the morning (I don't know yet), and a good record as governor of Virginia. He also has the confidence of his peers as a leader, having been chosen as leader of the governors. He is very positive, likable and energetic. He is a party insider who boosts other candidates and is a very successful fundraiser; second to none in that respect. His strong link to the Clintons and some of their activities could hurt him with progressives in the primary, but it could also be an asset among others, and despite this he claims to be a progressive and he actually has a record of consistent support for causes. His stock as a candidate rose with the strength of Democrats in his state that he helped to impart in the elections this year. If Landrieu doesn't run or is hampered by his lower status, then McAuliffe is the best choice. He seems likely to run.

[pbrower2a]

Here are Lichtman's keys and how they seem to apply to 2020.

Red -- favors Republicans
Blue -- favors Democrats
Green -- ambiguous



 

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
   
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
   
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
   
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
   
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
   
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
   
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
   
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
   
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
   
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
    
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
    
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
    
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
    

1. Practically nobody now believes that the President's Party can make gains in the House. His Party is in worse shape for protecting the scale of his House majority than was the Democratic Party this time in 2010. Even a one-seat loss among 435 Representatives will make this a negative for Trump.

2. I hear talk, but I have yet to see anything so significant as an 'exploratory committee' by a dissident Republican.

3. Even should President Trump be impeached, then the President will be a Republican, most likely Mike Pence.

4. We have yet to see whether someone from the Constitution, Libertarian, or Reform party can put up a significant challenge to the President.

5. There is plenty of time for an economic meltdown to happen between now and the autumn of 2020. It hasn't happened yet.

6. It will be nearly impossible to match the Obama recovery as growth. There has been little room for improvement except for concerted efforts to raise real wages, something that cheap-labor interests in the GOP will resist.

7. The big tax cuts on behalf of the Master Class are his sole legislative victory, but it is one even if it should prove unpopular.

8. Political demonstrations may still be well-behaved in contrast to those of the 1960s, but they are bigger (feminist, environmentalist, anti-gun, and Black Lives Matter), and they don't make the current President look good.

9. How many scandals do you need? This administration has several scandals on the scale of Teapot Dome.

10. Be naive about the Soviet Union (like Carter) or a dictatorial Russia (like Trump), and you will be burned. This has yet to happen, so I cannot predict it... but I will not be surprised.

11. Nothing yet.

12. He may have seemed charismatic in 2016, but he has lost that.

13. I don't see any Democrat offering charisma yet.

Lichtman predicted that  Trump would win in 2016. I can't speak for Lichtman; historical events will do so in 2020.

[Eric the Green]

I guess we can monitor how the keys are going, but we won't know for sure until a couple of months before the election. The horoscope methods may provide a longer-look ahead, at least in regard to which candidates have the best chance to beat the drump.

But I'll add my take on the keys for now:

1. I agree; the GOP has no chance to make gains in the House in 2018, and could lose substantially.
2. Right, we don't know yet, but Sen. Flake is considering it.
#3 through 6. I agree with brower
7. I don't think Lichtman would agree that a tax cut is a major policy achievement. It's just the normal GOP approach to fiscal affairs.
#8-12 I agree with brower
13. I think Landrieu has the potential to be a charismatic candidate.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(04-02-2018, 01:35 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Just a cautionary note again. Donald Trump is a powerful and entertaining speaker. "Everybody likes me," he said, and it's true that for some people he's "likable" and charismatic. He has ardent loyalty from his supporters. Defeating him in 2020 will not be easy. Remember the economy may still be OK, although I predict a recession that would hurt The Donald. But if I am wrong, then people may forgive all Trump's malfeasance because the economy is the main thing. If corporations spend their windfall wisely (a BIG IF), then there could be a trickle.

I would say the odds are just below even if Bernie Sanders is the nominee (horoscope score 14-7), and not that good if it's Biden (13-8). America has never elected a candidate for president who was 78 or 79 years old. Some of the other candidates now mentioned have no chance, such as Elizabeth Warren (8-7) , Cory Booker(6-7) and Kamala Harris (4-14). As we have seen over and over again, the candidate's ability as a candidate will determine the election.....

Can you do the Horoscope scores for Tulsi Gabbard and Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson for 2020.

[Eric the Green]

(04-05-2018, 07:03 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote:

(04-02-2018, 01:35 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Just a cautionary note again. Donald Trump is a powerful and entertaining speaker. "Everybody likes me," he said, and it's true that for some people he's "likable" and charismatic. He has ardent loyalty from his supporters. Defeating him in 2020 will not be easy. Remember the economy may still be OK, although I predict a recession that would hurt The Donald. But if I am wrong, then people may forgive all Trump's malfeasance because the economy is the main thing. If corporations spend their windfall wisely (a BIG IF), then there could be a trickle.

I would say the odds are just below even if Bernie Sanders is the nominee (horoscope score 14-7), and not that good if it's Biden (13-8). America has never elected a candidate for president who was 78 or 79 years old. Some of the other candidates now mentioned have no chance, such as Elizabeth Warren (8-7) , Cory Booker(6-7) and Kamala Harris (4-14). As we have seen over and over again, the candidate's ability as a candidate will determine the election.....

Can you do the Horoscope scores for Tulsi Gabbard and Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson for 2020.

Already done. Tulsi Gabbard has an 11-6 score. If she runs and loses, I may have to reduce this to 11-8 because of a marginal aspect that she has. Tulsi has one of the better scores, but not higher than Trump.

Dwayne The Rock Johnson I covered in an earlier post here. http://generational-theory.com/forum/thr...l#pid25670  He has a score of 8-9.

[Classic-Xer]

(04-03-2018, 10:21 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Here are Lichtman's keys and how they seem to apply to 2020.

Red -- favors Republicans
Blue -- favors Democrats
Green -- ambiguous



 

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
   
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
   
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
   
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
   
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
   
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
   
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
   
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
   
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
   
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
    
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
    
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
    
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
    

1. Practically nobody now believes that the President's Party can make gains in the House. His Party is in worse shape for protecting the scale of his House majority than was the Democratic Party this time in 2010. Even a one-seat loss among 435 Representatives will make this a negative for Trump.

2. I hear talk, but I have yet to see anything so significant as an 'exploratory committee' by a dissident Republican.

3. Even should President Trump be impeached, then the President will be a Republican, most likely Mike Pence.

4. We have yet to see whether someone from the Constitution, Libertarian, or Reform party can put up a significant challenge to the President.

5. There is plenty of time for an economic meltdown to happen between now and the autumn of 2020. It hasn't happened yet.

6. It will be nearly impossible to match the Obama recovery as growth. There has been little room for improvement except for concerted efforts to raise real wages, something that cheap-labor interests in the GOP will resist.

7. The big tax cuts on behalf of the Master Class are his sole legislative victory, but it is one even if it should prove unpopular.

8. Political demonstrations may still be well-behaved in contrast to those of the 1960s, but they are bigger (feminist, environmentalist, anti-gun, and Black Lives Matter), and they don't make the current President look good.

9. How many scandals do you need? This administration has several scandals on the scale of Teapot Dome.

10. Be naive about the Soviet Union (like Carter) or a dictatorial Russia (like Trump), and you will be burned. This has yet to happen, so I cannot predict it... but I will not be surprised.

11. Nothing yet.

12. He may have seemed charismatic in 2016, but he has lost that.

13. I don't see any Democrat offering charisma yet.

Lichtman predicted that  Trump would win in 2016. I can't speak for Lichtman; historical events will do so in 2020.

6. Advantage red, considering that there was little to no growth during the bulk of Obama years.
8. I think we'd all agree that blue demonstrations of any kind don't ever make Republican Presidents/candidates look good. Will they matter more to voters who aren't all that attached to them than other national issues matter to them. 
10. If you end up under the Soviet Union or a dictator like Putin, it's because you (the blues) burned a bridge with America. Don't worry blue dude, you'll always have a place to escape, migrate to and live out the rest of your pathetic life in whatever remains of California.

[pbrower2a]

(04-07-2018, 04:03 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-03-2018, 10:21 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Here are Lichtman's keys and how they seem to apply to 2020.

Red -- favors Republicans
Blue -- favors Democrats
Green -- ambiguous



 

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
   
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
   
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
   
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
   
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
   
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
   
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
   
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
   
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
   
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
    
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
    
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
    
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
    

1. Practically nobody now believes that the President's Party can make gains in the House. His Party is in worse shape for protecting the scale of his House majority than was the Democratic Party this time in 2010. Even a one-seat loss among 435 Representatives will make this a negative for Trump.

2. I hear talk, but I have yet to see anything so significant as an 'exploratory committee' by a dissident Republican.

3. Even should President Trump be impeached, then the President will be a Republican, most likely Mike Pence.

4. We have yet to see whether someone from the Constitution, Libertarian, or Reform party can put up a significant challenge to the President.

5. There is plenty of time for an economic meltdown to happen between now and the autumn of 2020. It hasn't happened yet.

6. It will be nearly impossible to match the Obama recovery as growth. There has been little room for improvement except for concerted efforts to raise real wages, something that cheap-labor interests in the GOP will resist.

7. The big tax cuts on behalf of the Master Class are his sole legislative victory, but it is one even if it should prove unpopular.

8. Political demonstrations may still be well-behaved in contrast to those of the 1960s, but they are bigger (feminist, environmentalist, anti-gun, and Black Lives Matter), and they don't make the current President look good.

9. How many scandals do you need? This administration has several scandals on the scale of Teapot Dome.

10. Be naive about the Soviet Union (like Carter) or a dictatorial Russia (like Trump), and you will be burned. This has yet to happen, so I cannot predict it... but I will not be surprised.

11. Nothing yet.

12. He may have seemed charismatic in 2016, but he has lost that.

13. I don't see any Democrat offering charisma yet.

Lichtman predicted that  Trump would win in 2016. I can't speak for Lichtman; historical events will do so in 2020.

6. Advantage red, considering that there was little to no growth during the bulk of Obama years.
8. I think we'd all agree that blue demonstrations of any kind don't ever make Republican Presidents/candidates look good. Will they matter more to voters who aren't all that attached to them than other national issues matter to them. 
10. If you end up under the Soviet Union or a dictator like Putin, it's because you (the blues) burned a bridge with America. Don't worry blue dude, you'll always have a place to escape, migrate to and live out the rest of your pathetic life in whatever remains of California.

6. N0 -- advantage blue. Most of the growth went to America's elites of ownership and management because Republicans had control of Congress. Now the Master Class has complete control of the economy and pliant figures in firm hold of all levels of government. The USA has become about as absolute a plutocracy as a fascist state or one of the kingdoms in which a royal family controls oil resources as the primary source of income.

But it is worth remembering that extreme inequality of income is an unstable condition in a largely-market economy. If the stock market reels, which it already shows signs of doing due top the impending trade war, then this goes from 'slightly blue' to 'deep blue'. Stock markets collapse when there is inadequate money for buying up alleged bargains in a collapsing market. In view of the abysmal savings rate in America, that collapse could happen very soon.

I bought into the market in March 2009 and held onto solid gains until the nursing home made a pauper out of me.

But that's the result of me doing things that were morally right but personally disastrous. What matters is what happens top others:



We already face an ominous drop in the valuation of the stock market. The savings rate in America is atrocious in part because millions are deep in debt for student loans that keep smart people from having to become farm laborers, domestic servants, or convenience-store clerks. When people can't buy the bargains of a collapsing market, then it will be 1929-1932 all over. If you thought the sesquiannum beginning in the autumn of 2007 was bad -- it was only about half as bad, and only because it wasn't a full three years of such severity. Democrats running for President will promise to be 'another Obama', and that will look even better in 2020 than in 2008.

We may be on the brink of a fifth Bad Bear market. I would not predict the Dow-Jones to end up in the low-to-mid teens around Election Day, 2020, but if it did such would by then seem inevitable.

10. As bad as things have gotten for me, all that keeps me from becoming a Communist is the body count. But that is not the point. The empire containing Russia is untrustworthy in its foreign policy. If Putin could re-attach Alaska to Russia as easily as he took 'back' Crimea and a slice of eastern Ukraine, he would. I can imagine President Putin making President Trump an offer that the latter couldn't refuse... maybe the Ukraine, Belarus, three Baltic Republics and Finland in return for guaranteeing his re-election? Heck, maybe our Great and Infallible Leader might throw Finnmark (the section of Norway north of Finland) in in the deal.

[pbrower2a]

The 2016 election, if not the result of political shenanigans, is the result of a demagogue making promises that he can never achieve. The 2020 election will make the current President electorally accountable.

A scenario in which farm income plummets and the stock market loses half its valuation could give America this sort of election:



Donald Trump (R, inc) 54
conservative Mormon favorite son (I) 6
the new FDR (D) 478

This prediction depends upon some contingencies yet to happen that I cannot rule out.

[pbrower2a]

Oh, in the previous map I forgot to say whether "inc" stands for "incumbent" or "incompetent".

[Classic-Xer]

(04-08-2018, 01:50 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The 2016 election, if not the result of political shenanigans,  is the result of a demagogue making promises that he can never achieve. The 2020 election will make the current President electorally accountable.

A scenario in which farm income plummets and the stock market loses half its valuation could give America this sort of election:



Donald Trump (R, inc) 54
conservative Mormon  favorite son (I) 6
the new FDR (D) 478

This prediction depends upon some contingencies yet to happen that I cannot rule out.

FDR would be a Republican today. I'm surprised blues aren't calling for the removal of his monument too like their doing with Jefferson.

[Classic-Xer]

(04-08-2018, 01:49 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: 6. N0 -- advantage blue. Most of the growth went to America's elites of ownership and management because Republicans had control of Congress. Now the Master Class has complete control of the economy and pliant figures in firm hold of all levels of government. The USA has become about as absolute a plutocracy as a fascist state or one of the kingdoms in which a royal family controls oil resources as the primary source of income.

But it is worth remembering that extreme inequality of income is an unstable condition in a largely-market economy. If the stock market reels, which it already shows signs of doing due top the impending trade war, then this goes from 'slightly blue' to 'deep blue'. Stock markets collapse when there is inadequate money for buying up alleged bargains in a collapsing market. In view of the abysmal savings rate in America, that collapse could happen very soon.

I bought into the market in March 2009 and held onto solid gains until the nursing home made a pauper out of me.

But that's the result of me doing things that were morally right but personally disastrous. What matters is what happens top others:

10. As bad as things have gotten for me, all that keeps me from becoming a Communist is the body count. But that is not the point. The empire containing Russia is untrustworthy in its foreign policy. If Putin could re-attach Alaska to Russia as easily as he took 'back' Crimea and a slice of eastern Ukraine, he would. I can imagine President Putin making President Trump an offer that the latter couldn't refuse... maybe the Ukraine, Belarus, three Baltic Republics and Finland in return for guaranteeing his re-election? Heck, maybe our Great and Infallible Leader might throw Finnmark (the section of Norway north of Finland) in in the deal.

Your inheritance (parents money) was gobbled up by healthcare (nursing home) costs associated with your parents care. Are you basing economic views of America on your own view of the economy and the financial position that you are in now?

[pbrower2a]

(04-08-2018, 11:58 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Your inheritance (parents money) was gobbled up by healthcare (nursing home) costs associated with your parents care. Are you basing economic views of America on your own view of the economy and the financial position that you are in now?

NO. I do so to make clear that doing the right thing may itself be self-destructive or lead to a miserable life. I also illustrate the hazard of an economy that has decided that the gain of certain groups that get an entitlement to charge whatever the traffic will bear will lead to the impoverishment of many others. Such may especially hurt people who follow the rules out of a low threshold of feelings of guilt.

I could put up with authoritarian demands by aging, and increasingly demanding, parents with the satisfaction that when it was all over there would be enough to allow me to have some cushion for starting over at a low level. That cushion is gone. I have been at a position in which I thought that, stuck in a community that allows few ways of life in which happiness is possible, in which I have a mental condition that hurts me alone, in which opportunities are few and awful, and in which elderhood in poverty is pure pain, I had nothing for which to live. I was a candidate for suicide.

What I lost was my life savings because I had to give up paid work to keep my parents going. If I had been a slimy person I would have abandoned my parents and gotten some predatory, if licit and lucrative, way of life. The community in which I exist is the sort of place that people with ambition leave unless they want to stick with a family business (that national chains out-compete) or stay on the family farm (family farming is shrinking in numbers as farms get consolidated). Michigan has undergone a second Depression as the auto industry that created a strong economy has shrunk in relative terms in America and has also left Michigan to a large extent. Michigan has undergone a perverse sort of economic change in which agriculture has by default become more important; it can generate revenue, but it is not a good provider for laborers.

I had hoped to move on to some place that offers more and demands less. I may be stuck. I no longer consider my life precious but instead simply difficult and unrewarding.