Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

FoX News... and FoX News uses reliable pollsters as the source. So President Trump isn't really doing worse than this poll indicates. He isn't doing any better.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/...trump.html

Hillary Clinton is now just slightly (but not significantly) better in favorability than he is.

fav/unfav %:
Obama 60/39% for +21%
Pence 45/37% for +8%
The Democratic Party 47/48% for -1%
Clinton 43/55% for -12%
The Republican Party 41/53% for -12%
Trump 42/55% for -13%

Trump fav/unfav among…
men: +/-0
women: -25
under $50k income: -28
over $50k income: -7
non-white: -55
white college degree: -21
white no college degree: +22

8% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.
14% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of her.

This Presidency is limping badly. Just look at white people with college degrees.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, New Jersey. The first APPROVAL poll of any state that does not mention 'the transition'.


https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-d...aseID=2425

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

                                                              WHITE......
                                                              COLLEGE DEG
                        Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No

Approve               36%    87%     7%    36%    44%    29%    38%    49%
Disapprove           55      7     88     54     47     63     55     42
DK/NA                    9      6      5     11      9      8      6      9

                    AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                    18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht

Approve              34%    29%    38%    42%    48%    39%    43%    20%
Disapprove           61     61        54       48        45       52       49       70
DK/NA                 4     11      8      9      7      8      8     10


Sure, it is New Jersey, which is a very sure D state in Presidential races.  Donald Trump got 41% of the vote in New Jersey in 2016. The younger the voter, the more likely one is to support President Trump... the only demographic groups for which President Trump aren't under water in New Jersey are white men and whites without college degrees.

New Jersey of course is NOT a microcosm of America, but if the pattern of many people who voted for him in 2016 disapproving of the President that they voted for, then Election Night 2020 could be a rude awakening for the GOP -- perhaps as rude as Election Night 2008. Four percent of the electorate peeling away from the GOP by 2020 means that the Republican nominee (almost certainly an incumbent) gets 42% of the vote. Barring a strong third-party opponent who guts the Democratic vote for President, 42% of the vote is grossly inadequate for winning the Presidency.

People are not warming up to Donald Trump, and people seem not to be defending their vote for him. He is not the new John F. Kennedy, able to win support after a close race for President.



Favorability:



Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:



Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.

[pbrower2a]

Shift 4% of the vote from 2016 to 2020, and the Republicans lose 102 electoral votes from 2016 by losing in order Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, and end up losing the electoral vote 334 to 204 with an even swing alone.

Of course this assumes that the Republicans will be as unpopular now as they now are -- and that there will be a free and fair election in 2020, which may be a big question. Republicans may be in no position to lose the election due to personal consequences, like not having a choice of their extended stays.

[Eric the Green]

HomeWorld news
Majority of Americans want Obama back as President: poll
http://www.financialexpress.com/world-ne...ll/536598/

Less than two weeks into Donald Trump's presidency, a majority of Americans want Barack Obama back as President with a significant percentage of voters already thinking that the real estate tycoon-turned-politician should be removed from office, according to a new poll.
By: PTI | Washington | Updated: February 3, 2017 4:49 PM

It has not taken long for voters to miss the good old days of Obama with 52 per cent saying they would rather have him as President, to only 43 per cent who are glad Trump is at the helm, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling. (AP)

Less than two weeks into Donald Trump’s presidency, a majority of Americans want Barack Obama back as President with a significant percentage of voters already thinking that the real estate tycoon-turned-politician should be removed from office, according to a new poll.

It has not taken long for voters to miss the good old days of Obama with 52 per cent saying they would rather have him as President, to only 43 per cent who are glad Trump is at the helm, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling.

“Usually a newly elected President is at the peak of their popularity and enjoying their honeymoon period after taking office,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

“But Donald Trump’s making history once again with a sizeable share of voters already wanting to impeach him, and a majority of voters wishing they could have Barack Obama back,” he said.

40 per cent of voters already want to impeach Trump. That is up from 35 per cent of voters who wanted to impeach him a week ago, the survey.

Only 48 per cent of voters say that they would be opposed to Trump’s impeachment, the poll said.

“Overall voters are pretty evenly split on Trump’s executive order on immigration from last week, with 47 per cent supporting it to 49 per cent who are opposed,” the survey said.

“But when you get beyond the overall package, the pieces of the executive order become more clearly unpopular. 52 per cent of voters think that the order was intended to be a Muslim ban, to only 41 per cent who don’t think that was the intent. And the idea of a Muslim ban is extremely unpopular with the American people — only 26 per cent are in favour of it, to 65 per cent who are against it,” it said.

When it comes to barring people from certain countries from entering the US, even when those people have already secured a visa, just 39 per cent of voters are supportive to 53 per cent who are against, according to the poll. Just 43 per cent of voters support the US indefinitely suspending accepting Syrian refugees, with 48 per cent opposed to that.

Finally voters see a basic competence issue with Trump’s handling of the executive order with only 39 per cent of voters think it was well executed, to 55 per cent who believe it was poorly executed, the survey said.

“Americans think last week’s executive order is a Muslim ban and they don’t like it,” Debnam said. “And beyond that, they think the order was executed in an incompetent fashion,” he said.

The figures were compiled after Public Policy Polling surveyed 725 registered voters on January 30 and 31.

[Marypoza]

(02-03-2017, 07:04 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(02-03-2017, 04:46 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: HomeWorld news
Majority of Americans want Obama back as President: poll
http://www.financialexpress.com/world-ne...ll/536598/

Less than two weeks into Donald Trump's presidency, a majority of Americans want Barack Obama back as President with a significant percentage of voters already thinking that the real estate tycoon-turned-politician should be removed from office, according to a new poll.
By: PTI | Washington | Updated: February 3, 2017 4:49 PM

It has not taken long for voters to miss the good old days of Obama with 52 per cent saying they would rather have him as President, to only 43 per cent who are glad Trump is at the helm, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling. (AP)

Less than two weeks into Donald Trump’s presidency, a majority of Americans want Barack Obama back as President with a significant percentage of voters already thinking that the real estate tycoon-turned-politician should be removed from office, according to a new poll.

It has not taken long for voters to miss the good old days of Obama with 52 per cent saying they would rather have him as President, to only 43 per cent who are glad Trump is at the helm, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling.

“Usually a newly elected President is at the peak of their popularity and enjoying their honeymoon period after taking office,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

“But Donald Trump’s making history once again with a sizeable share of voters already wanting to impeach him, and a majority of voters wishing they could have Barack Obama back,” he said.

40 per cent of voters already want to impeach Trump. That is up from 35 per cent of voters who wanted to impeach him a week ago, the survey.

Only 48 per cent of voters say that they would be opposed to Trump’s impeachment, the poll said.

“Overall voters are pretty evenly split on Trump’s executive order on immigration from last week, with 47 per cent supporting it to 49 per cent who are opposed,” the survey said.

“But when you get beyond the overall package, the pieces of the executive order become more clearly unpopular. 52 per cent of voters think that the order was intended to be a Muslim ban, to only 41 per cent who don’t think that was the intent. And the idea of a Muslim ban is extremely unpopular with the American people — only 26 per cent are in favour of it, to 65 per cent who are against it,” it said.

When it comes to barring people from certain countries from entering the US, even when those people have already secured a visa, just 39 per cent of voters are supportive to 53 per cent who are against, according to the poll. Just 43 per cent of voters support the US indefinitely suspending accepting Syrian refugees, with 48 per cent opposed to that.

Finally voters see a basic competence issue with Trump’s handling of the executive order with only 39 per cent of voters think it was well executed, to 55 per cent who believe it was poorly executed, the survey said.

“Americans think last week’s executive order is a Muslim ban and they don’t like it,” Debnam said. “And beyond that, they think the order was executed in an incompetent fashion,” he said.

The figures were compiled after Public Policy Polling surveyed 725 registered voters on January 30 and 31.

Who I want back is JFK, but he's dead.

Failing that, I want W.

Reagan? Hmmmm .... I'd say yes for 1st term Reagan but for 2nd term Reagan, not so much.

-- l want Bernie. He's still alive

[Eric the Green]

(02-03-2017, 07:04 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(02-03-2017, 04:46 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: HomeWorld news
Majority of Americans want Obama back as President: poll
http://www.financialexpress.com/world-ne...ll/536598/

Less than two weeks into Donald Trump's presidency, a majority of Americans want Barack Obama back as President with a significant percentage of voters already thinking that the real estate tycoon-turned-politician should be removed from office, according to a new poll.
By: PTI | Washington | Updated: February 3, 2017 4:49 PM

It has not taken long for voters to miss the good old days of Obama with 52 per cent saying they would rather have him as President, to only 43 per cent who are glad Trump is at the helm, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling. (AP)

Less than two weeks into Donald Trump’s presidency, a majority of Americans want Barack Obama back as President with a significant percentage of voters already thinking that the real estate tycoon-turned-politician should be removed from office, according to a new poll.

It has not taken long for voters to miss the good old days of Obama with 52 per cent saying they would rather have him as President, to only 43 per cent who are glad Trump is at the helm, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling.

“Usually a newly elected President is at the peak of their popularity and enjoying their honeymoon period after taking office,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

“But Donald Trump’s making history once again with a sizeable share of voters already wanting to impeach him, and a majority of voters wishing they could have Barack Obama back,” he said.

40 per cent of voters already want to impeach Trump. That is up from 35 per cent of voters who wanted to impeach him a week ago, the survey.

Only 48 per cent of voters say that they would be opposed to Trump’s impeachment, the poll said.

“Overall voters are pretty evenly split on Trump’s executive order on immigration from last week, with 47 per cent supporting it to 49 per cent who are opposed,” the survey said.

“But when you get beyond the overall package, the pieces of the executive order become more clearly unpopular. 52 per cent of voters think that the order was intended to be a Muslim ban, to only 41 per cent who don’t think that was the intent. And the idea of a Muslim ban is extremely unpopular with the American people — only 26 per cent are in favour of it, to 65 per cent who are against it,” it said.

When it comes to barring people from certain countries from entering the US, even when those people have already secured a visa, just 39 per cent of voters are supportive to 53 per cent who are against, according to the poll. Just 43 per cent of voters support the US indefinitely suspending accepting Syrian refugees, with 48 per cent opposed to that.

Finally voters see a basic competence issue with Trump’s handling of the executive order with only 39 per cent of voters think it was well executed, to 55 per cent who believe it was poorly executed, the survey said.

“Americans think last week’s executive order is a Muslim ban and they don’t like it,” Debnam said. “And beyond that, they think the order was executed in an incompetent fashion,” he said.

The figures were compiled after Public Policy Polling surveyed 725 registered voters on January 30 and 31.

Who I want back is JFK, but he's dead.

Failing that, I want W.

I guess the second worst president ever is better than the worst. Maybe....

[Marypoza]

http://addictinginfo.org/2017/02/03/trum...aid-thugs/

[Ragnarök_62]

(02-04-2017, 12:57 AM)Marypoza Wrote: http://addictinginfo.org/2017/02/03/trum...aid-thugs/

Huh?  Trump needs to [ like a bunch of other stuff ] research what the black bloc is before conflating protesters with that motley crew. I mean yeah, I've protested in Houston when Metro decided to shut the bus route I took to work.

"Keep route 285
for us alive"  I was a loud fuck, but never broke shit or set a fire.

[Marypoza]

(02-04-2017, 01:04 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(02-04-2017, 12:57 AM)Marypoza Wrote: http://addictinginfo.org/2017/02/03/trum...aid-thugs/

Huh?  Trump needs to [ like a bunch of other stuff ] research what the black bloc is before conflating protesters with that motley crew.  I mean yeah, I've protested in Houston when Metro decided to shut the bus route I took to work.

-- where's that Crue video Rags  

Rags Wrote:"Keep route 285
for us alive"  I was a loud fuck, but never broke shit or set a fire.

--me neither

[Eric the Green]

From that right-wing news site Newsmax:

http://www.newsmax.com/US/quinnipiac-pol...r=zbbclhqk

Poll: Most US Voters Opposed to Trump's Immigration Orders
(with AP Images)
By Jason Devaney | Tuesday, 07 Feb 2017 02:58 PM

The majority of American voters are opposed to President Donald Trump's executive actions on immigration, according to the results of a new survey.

The Quinnipiac University poll found that:

51 percent are against Trump's directive to suspend immigration from seven countries with a terror presence for 90 days, compared to 46 percent who are for it.

60 percent oppose Trump's order to stop refugees from entering the U.S. for 120 days, compared to 37 percent who are for it.

70 percent are against indefinitely suspending Syrian refugees from coming to the U.S., compared to 26 percent who are for it.

39 percent said Trump's executive action on immigration will make the country less safe, while 38 percent said it will make the country more safe.

51 percent said Trump's order is an attempt to ban Muslims from the U.S., and 58 percent said mainstream Islam is a peaceful religion.

Trump signed executive orders on immigration a week and a half ago, but the action has since been lifted as it's sorted out in the court system. Several lawsuits say Trump's order was unconstitutional, an argument that several judges agree with.

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 2-4:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-1...78cc9d0001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-1...5fe03e0001

approve 47%
disapprove 46%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +7
Northeast: -8
South: +6
West: -2

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +12
blacks: -53
Hispanics: -13

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: 0
$50-100k: +5
over $100k: -1

[pbrower2a]

We finally have polls of states that President Trump won in 2016 (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina). Republicans will have a tough time winning them in a free and fair election (which itself is the Big Question of 2020 -- will we have a free and fair election in 2020?).

Tellingly, the incumbent Republican Governor of Michigan is very unpopular, so it is highly unlikely that President Trump will get help from the  Governor of Michigan (if that played a role in 2016).

The difference between favorability and approval for the President is only 1%, so we effectively have a category-straddler that we need concern ourselves little with.

Favorability:



Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:



Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

Colors chosen for partisan advantage -- red for Democrats and blue for Republicans as was the norm going into the 1980s and as in the source for my map.

[pbrower2a]

thought out their position is- by a 51/23 margin Trump voters say that the Bowling Green Massacre shows why Trump's immigration policy is needed.

By a 48/43 spread, voters do think that the intent of the Executive Order is to be a Muslim ban. And just 22% support a Muslim ban, to 65% who are opposed. The order has also increasingly raised issues about Trump's competence in voters' eyes- only 27% think the Executive Order was well executed, to 66% who think it was poorly executed. The spread on that question was 39/55 when we asked last week.

-Voters are concerned by the implications of Trump's fight with the Judiciary. 53% of voters say they trust Judges more to make the right decisions for the United States, to only 38% who trust Trump more. And only 25% of voters think Trump should be able to overturn decisions by Judges that he disagrees with, to 64% who don't think he should be able to do that. Trump voters have evidently had enough of the Constitution and those pesky checks and balances though- 51% of them think he should personally be able to overturn decisions he doesn't agree with, to only 33% who dissent.

-Voters don't like the people Trump has surrounded himself with. Betsy DeVos may have been confirmed this week, but she made a horrible impression on the public. Only 27% of voters see her positively to 49% with a negative opinion of her. Clinton voters are almost unanimous in their distaste for her (5/83 favorability), while she doesn't generate nearly an equivalent amount of enthusiasm from Trump voters (53/12 favorability.) Other people close to Trump have come off poorly as well- Steve Bannon has a 22/45 favorability rating, Kellyanne Conway's is 34/47, and Sean Spicer's is 32/41.

-Voters continue to have a lot of basic transparency concerns when it comes to Trump. 62% think he needs to fully divest himself from his business interests, to only 27% who don't think it's necessary for him to do that. And 58% want him to release his tax returns, to just 31% who don't think he needs to. In fact by a 53/32 spread, voters would support a law requiring that candidates for President release 5 years of their tax returns in order to appear on the ballot.

-Voters are concerned that in the realm of foreign policy, Trump likes who they don't like and doesn't like who they do like. Trump has antagonized Australia, which Americans give a 76/5 favorability rating. Meanwhile he has been warm to Russia, which Americans give a 13/63 favorability rating. He's threatened to invade Mexico- a course that only 7% of voters support while 83% oppose it- while making nice comments about Vladimir Putin, who Americans give a 10/72 favorability to.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/...trump.html

[pbrower2a]

Breaking news: Donald Trump actually has a state in which he has stronger approval than disapproval.

It's ... West Virginia!




(I will have another chance to offer a new map, probably when polls come out for states more significant in polling, which include:

Colorado
Georgia
Iowa
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

...Mississippi is considering going to vote-by-mail, which could give Democrats more of a chance.

[pbrower2a]

It's not really relevant, as the political culture is very different from what it was in the 1970s.



Approval of Donald Trump is about where approval of Richard Nixon was in mid-1973. Of course, Nixon had some political capital from the negotiations ending American involvement in the Vietnam War and starting diplomatic ties with China, but the Watergate and related scandals eroded that. It took until the spring of 1974 for support for impeachment of Nixon could approach what it is for Donald Trump in early February 2017.

[Bad Dog]

But Nixon Was Innocent!

And, We Won Viet Nam!

[pbrower2a]

(02-10-2017, 03:39 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(02-10-2017, 02:18 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: It's not really relevant, as the political culture is very different from what it was in the 1970s.



Approval of Donald Trump is about where approval of Richard Nixon was in mid-1973. Of course, Nixon had some political capital from the negotiations ending American involvement in the Vietnam War and starting diplomatic ties with China, but the Watergate and related scandals eroded that. It took until the spring of 1974 for support for impeachment of Nixon could approach what it is for Donald Trump in early February 2017.

Couple things about Nixon's inflection point. One I remember was the whole price controls debacle. Even 9 to 10 year old me understood the issues with that. The other recollection was leaving for school at O-DARK-hundred due to year round Daylight Saving Time. So even prior to the full force of Watergate he had that against him too.

When he quit we were in the middle of a major family summer road trip. Trying to recall, was it UT or CO ... what I do remember extremely clearly was us huddled around the TV in the hotel room watching his resignation speech.

I was eighteen. I lost all faith in Richard Nixon when he said "your President is not a crook". I had hoped for the best.

Honest people do not have to assert their virtues because such people live their virtues. Crooks have to proclaim their integrity, fools need to assert their wisdom, and madmen must assert their sanity. Closeted gays (don't get me wrong -- gay is OK) often show exaggerated machismo. People shaky about their social position buy status symbols. Alcoholics, addicts, and self-destructive gamblers brag that they can quit any time.  I understand that people involved in child porn often have testaments to their greatness as parents. I know my potential faults of character, and I know what I must do to struggle against them.

(OK, I didn't know about Asperger's messing up my life, but I admitted it once I got the diagnosis, and shed a great burden of guilty feelings about my otherwise-inexplicable failures).

[Eric the Green]

Approval ratings of governors, Sept.2016
https://morningconsult.com/governor-appr...mber-2016/

[pbrower2a]

Poll: Does Trump’s support have a ceiling — or a floor?







http://www.cbsnews.com/news/nation-track...r-a-floor/

I'm guessing that people termed "believers" have unqualified support for the President. "Conditionals" generally support him, but want and expect him to meet his promises. "Curious", I suppose, expect mixed results, but can like his Presidency if it achieves the desired results and acts appropriately. "Resisters" at most accept what he does, should it succeed, with grudging acceptance.

Guessing on how these correspond with favorability...

Believers -- strongly favor. He is a good match for their values and agenda.
Conditionals -- favor slightly.  He is expected to do well, but he is expected to make his promises work.
Curious -- feebly reject. Expect mixed results, maybe more bad than good
Resisters -- strongly reject. He is a bad match for their values and agenda.

[pbrower2a]

Consider me a Resister. I reject him because he is a deceitful demagogue, because he has shown extreme misogyny (I would not want my daughter or granddaughter, if I had one, to participate in any pageant in which he is involved after him being reported to go into women's dressing rooms and bragging about grabbing women by their crotches even if such is metaphoric)... I am to the Right of him on foreign policy, thinking him much as the Nixon campaign cast George McGovern, except that the caricature of Trump as an appeaser is genuine!

I do not trust dictators overseas -- let alone would-be dictators here.

I would have to be under such extreme personal threat as a red-hot poker being pointed at my rectum to support him.