Generational Dynamics World View

[Hintergrund]

(08-23-2019, 06:05 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-22-2019, 10:23 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 22-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong and Taiwan

(08-21-2019, 06:23 PM)David Horn Wrote: >   I'm more concerned about Taiwan.  This entire affair has to be
>   unsettling there.  Any thoughts of declaring independence and
>   walking away have to be off the table while DJT is in the White
>   House.  Just too risky.  Then again, not everything is
>   controllable, and Xi may decide that now is the perfect time to
>   crack down.  Who knows?  

The Chinese have always made it clear that they will annex Taiwan to
China at some time, by military force if necessary.  They know that
independence sentiment is growing, as survivors of the communist
revolution civil war die off and are replaced by younger generations
with greater allegiance to the West.  Those sentiments have been
growing even faster, as you suggest, because of the CCP's thuggish
activities in Hong Kong.  So a war of annexation on Taiwan is a
foregone conclusion, but the timing of such a war is independent of
any action in Hong Kong, since the latter is already part of China.

Triggering events are triggering events, and HK smells like one to me.  Xi needs to win one, and Taiwan is a big one, albeit not easy.  You've been looking for a crisis war, and this may be the entre.

Neither the problem of Islamism nor that of Global Warming has a solution (yet), but some idiots want war between the US and China...

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong violence

Guest Wrote:> Hong Kong police fired live rounds today during protests.

• Police point guns at Hong Kong protesters on Sunday.

The police used water cannons, tear gas and live ammunition, while the
protesters used bricks and petrol bombs (Molotov cocktails).

October 1 will be the big Chinese independence day celebration. Xi
Jinping will want to resolve the Hong Kong situation by them. The
extremist activists will want to humiliate Xi as much as possible.
However, public sentiment in Hong Kong will be to avoid violence. All
these strands will come together in the next month, and we may get
some clarity on where Hong Kong is going. Or, as one report
says, the protests will be "settled or crushed" by October 1.

---- Source:

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/poli...first-time
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 8/26/2019)

[David Horn]

(08-25-2019, 01:24 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:

(08-23-2019, 06:05 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-22-2019, 10:23 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 22-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong and Taiwan

(08-21-2019, 06:23 PM)David Horn Wrote: I'm more concerned about Taiwan.  This entire affair has to be unsettling there... Xi may decide that now is the perfect time to crack down.  Who knows?  

The Chinese have always made it clear that they will annex Taiwan to China at some time, by military force if necessary...

Triggering events are triggering events, and HK smells like one to me.  Xi needs to win one, and Taiwan is a big one, albeit not easy.  You've been looking for a crisis war, and this may be the entre.

Neither the problem of Islamism nor that of Global Warming has a solution (yet), but some idiots want war between the US and China...

Never underestimate the power of hubris.  Big egos want to be stroked, and some, like DJT, need it more than life itself.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 28-Aug-2019 World View: World War III Scenario

CH86 Wrote:> OK then, you stated your conception regarding US
> stability. Regarding an international ww3. Would would happen IF
> the war begins someplace unexpected. Example if world War III
> begins but it begins in some place like kashmir, eastern
> europe/balkans or in central Asia? What would happen then?

The war is almost certain to start "in some place like kashmir,
eastern europe/balkans or in central Asia?" As I've said, a world war
begins with a small incident somewhere that expands into a regional
war and then a world war over a period of months or years.

America today does not want fight in another war, just as America
didn't want to fight in another war in the late 1930s, until forced to
do so by the Regeneracy, the bombing of Pearl Harbor and the Bataan
Death March.

World War II actually began in 1937, with the Macro Polo Bridge
incident, and it's forgotten today that Japan bombed and sank an
American ship four years before Pearl Harbor.

The sequence of steps that led from the beginning of WW II to American
involvement could serve as a kind of template for what might happen
today with China. Here are some paragraphs from my book:

Quote: "America's long-standing friendship with China,
combined with concern about Japan's militarism and invasions of
Manchuria and northern China, caused America to side with China in
the Sino-Japan war. However, America also had a policy of
non-interference, and had no vital interests in China, and so had
little desire to go to war with Japan -- or with Germany in
Europe, for that matter.

America did not even enter the Sino-Japan war when Japan's
warplanes bombed and sank the USS Panay on the Yangtze River on
December 12, 1937, as it was evacuating Americans from Nanking
during the Battle of Nanking (which became known as Japan's "Rape
of Nanking"). This is notable because it was the first Japanese
attack on an American naval vessel, and it was four years prior to
the attack on Pearl Harbor.

Three men on the USS Panay were killed, and 27 injured. The
Japanese claimed that the attack was a mistake, but few people
believe that. A newsreel of the Japanese warplanes sinking the
ship "went viral" in America and shocked the public, especially
because America was neutral in the war. Rather than risk America
entering the war on the side of China, the Japanese apologized and
paid compensation.

The Japanese massacre of Nanking and the sinking of the USS Panay
were shocks to the American public, but not shocking enough to
change American opinion against being drawn into the war,
especially after the apology.

When war broke out in Europe in September 1939, President Franklin
D. Roosevelt declared that while the United States would remain
neutral in law, he could "not ask that every American remain
neutral in thought as well." Because the American public was
strongly against entering the war, Roosevelt began supplying
weapons to Britain in exchange for leases on territory, and later
on deferred payment terms known as "The Lend-Lease program," which
would not require payment until after the war.

Over the course of the war, the United States contracted
Lend-Lease agreements with more than 30 countries, dispensing some
$50 billion in assistance. Although British Prime Minister Winston
Churchill later referred to the initiative as "the most unsordid
act" one nation had ever done for another, Roosevelt's primary
motivation was not altruism or disinterested generosity.

The Lend-Lease program didn't originally apply to China, but in
1940-41, Roosevelt formalized U.S. aid to China. The U.S. extended
credits to the Chinese Government for the purchase of war
supplies, as it slowly began to tighten restrictions on Japan.

The United States had been the main supplier of the oil, steel,
iron, and other commodities needed by the Japanese military in
China. But in January, 1940, Japan abrogated the existing treaty
of commerce with the United States. This abrogation gave
Roosevelt the ability to cut off or restrict the flow of military
supplies into Japan. After January 1940, the United States
combined a strategy of increasing aid to China through larger
credits and the Lend-Lease program with a gradual move towards an
embargo on the trade of all militarily useful items with Japan.

In 1940, Japan announced the intention to drive the Western
imperialist nations from Asia. On September 27, 1940, Japan
signed the Tripartite Pact with Germany and Italy, making China an
ally of the West. Then in mid-1941, Japan signed a Neutrality
Pact with the Soviet Union, freeing Japan's military to move into
Southeast Asia. A third agreement with Vichy France enabled
Japanese forces to move into French Indochina and begin their
Southern Advance.

Although negotiations restarted after the United States
increasingly enforced an embargo against Japan, they made little
headway. Diplomats in Washington came close to agreements on a
couple of occasions, but pro-Chinese sentiments in the United
States made it difficult to reach any resolution that would not
involve a Japanese withdrawal from China, and such a condition was
unacceptable to Japan's military leaders. Faced with serious
shortages as a result of the embargo, unable to retreat, and
convinced that the U.S. officials opposed further negotiations,
Japan's leaders came to the conclusion that they had to act
swiftly. For their part, U.S. leaders had not given up on a
negotiated settlement, and also doubted that Japan had the
military strength to attack the U.S. territory. Therefore they
were stunned when the unthinkable happened and Japanese planes
bombed the U.S. fleet at Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. The
following day, the United States declared war on Japan, and it
soon entered into a military alliance with China. When Germany
stood by its ally and declared war on the United States, the
Roosevelt Administration faced war in both Europe and
Asia."

Note that when Japan bombed and sank the USS Panay, America stayed
neutral because the people didn't want to fight. And then when the
war in Europe began, America stayed neutral because the people didn't
want to fight. But the bombing of Pearl Harbor and the Bataan Death
March caused the "Regeneracy," the political battles were put aside
(despite the fact that FDR was even more divisive than Trump is
today), and the country united behind FDR to fight the Japanese.

Note also how heavily a "trade war" was part of this scenario.

So a possible scenario today is that China will be in a ground war in
Central Asia and, at some point, they decide they've run out of time.
At that point they attack Japan and Taiwan, and also attack the US
because they know that we'll defend Japan and Taiwan. That's one
possible scenario for a Regeneracy today. But there's no path at all
to a new American Civil War.

[Warren Dew]

(08-28-2019, 07:19 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: But there's no path at all
to a new American Civil War.

Is this "no path" as in you haven't thought of one, or "no path" like there was no way to solve the Brexit Northern Ireland backstop problem?

If the latter, additional explanation would be valuable.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 28-Aug-2019 World View: American Civil War

(08-28-2019, 07:19 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > But there's no path at all to a new American Civil War.

(08-28-2019, 10:15 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Is this "no path" as in you haven't thought of one, or "no path"
> like there was no way to solve the Brexit Northern Ireland
> backstop problem?

> If the latter, additional explanation would be valuable.

Sorry for the confusion. I've answered the question about a new
American civil war many, many times, and I was alluding to something I
wrote weeks ago:

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...147#p47147

There are ZERO chances of an American civil war.

[Warren Dew]

Thanks. So, "no sign" of a "racial or ethnic" civil war.

Civil wars don't have to be racial or ethnic, though. Political civil wars and revolutions look different. I can't see a racial or ethnic civil war in the US, but something along the lines of 20th century Communist revolutions I could see.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 29-Aug-2019 World View: How low can interest rates go?

One of the big debates today is how low can interest rates go.

So if you purchase a $1000 government bond with a yield (interest
rate) of 2% per year, then after a year the bond will be worth $1020.

But if you purchase a $1000 government bond with a yield of -0.5% per
year, then after a year the bond will be worth %995. In other words,
you have to pay the government to keep your money safe.

Ten years ago, I heard analysts on tv say that interest rates could
never go below zero. That was before interest rates started going
below zero. Many countries today are offering bonds with negative
yields. There are $17 trillion in investors' hands today with
negative yields. Investors had to put their money somewhere, and
rather than put it in the risky stock market, they have a
country central bank keep the money safe, in return for a fee
(defined by the negative yield).

So for example on the German 10 year bund today, the yield
is 0.69%.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has been falling sharply
recently, though it's still positive at +1.5% today. A lot of
people believe that it will go negative before long.

Today on Bloomberg tv, an analyst Alberto Gallo of Algebris
Investments was asked the question about much more the German bund
yield could fall.

He said:

Quote: There is a boundary around minus 1% where it's bettter
to store cash or gold underground. You can put a billion euros in
a cubic meter of space, and essentially you'll get zero [interest]
rather than paying 70 bp [-0.7% yield]. So there is a physical
limit [to how low interest rates can go]. We're getting
close."

[Warren Dew]

If interest rates are below zero because the economy is shrinking, commodities like gold are likely to be decreasing in value too.  Really only storing cash works in that situation.

[David Horn]

(08-28-2019, 07:19 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 28-Aug-2019 World View: World War III Scenario

Note that when Japan bombed and sank the USS Panay, America stayed neutral because the people didn't want to fight.  And then when the war in Europe began, America stayed neutral because the people didn't want to fight.  But the bombing of Pearl Harbor and the Bataan Death March caused the "Regeneracy," the political battles were put aside (despite the fact that FDR was even more divisive than Trump is today), and the country united behind FDR to fight the Japanese.

I know you have strongly held views, but it's impossible to believe that anyone has been as divisive as DJT. FDR had some serious detractors, but Trump is actually building a potent opposition that may simply be unwilling to accept Trump 2.0, of that occurs. He's already a minority POTUS, and there is little doubt that, if reelected, he will be even moreso in 2021. That will be the third minority election in this century -- fully 50%! I can't see that being opposed quietly.

[David Horn]

(08-29-2019, 09:25 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: If interest rates are below zero because the economy is shrinking, commodities like gold are likely to be decreasing in value too.  Really only storing cash works in that situation.

I would hope that we're not going to copy Germany, and pretend that we can't inflate our way past this.  I think we've proven that handing money to the rich is a non-starter, so  next time, it will be massive public works … as it should have been under Obama.  Frankly, under Trump, programs like that would be hand-outs --  both ineffectual and impoverishing.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 30-Aug-2019 World View: CCP vs Hong Kong protesters on Saturday

According to a Hong Kong correspondent (Jonathan Hunt) on Fox News:

Pro-democracy protesters had planned a large public protest on
Saturday evening (Saturday morning ET), possibly as large as the
protest last month with two million protesters, 25% of the population.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing did the following:
- Arrested some protest leaders
- Declared that Saturday's protest is illegal
- Moved a large number of troops into Shenzhen on Hong Kong's border
- Told people to stay at home on Saturday evening

The organizers of the pro-democracy protests called off Saturday's
protests, saying that they couldn't guarantee the safety of the
demonstrators

However, this correspondent says that he has just interviewed some of
the extremists ("in an undisclosed location") and they're saying the
following:
- The peaceful protesters will stay at home
- The CCP's actions have energized the extremist protesters
- Extremist protesters will be out on Saturday evening, with
confrontational protests and probably violence

The question always is: How long will the CCP allow this to go on.
There's effectively a hard deadline of October 1, the 70th anniversary
of the founding of Communist China, and it's believed that the
protests must be "settled or crushed" by October 1.

You can always count on the CCP to do the stupidest, most incompetent,
and most self-destructive thing, so the logic of the situation
requires a Tiananmen Square type intervention within the next month,
in time for Hong Kong to be out of the news by October 1. That
suggests that the deadline for action is pretty much now.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 30-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong riot troops

Another analyst has clarified something that I apparently misstated.

I said that the CCP were sending more troops into Shenzhen. That's
not what's going on.

According to this analyst, the CCP has rotated out the troops
that have been occupying barracks in Hong Kong for years, and
is now replacing them with riot troops and riot vehicles.

[Warren Dew]

Are we talking about a "pro-democracy" protest in Beijing, or a continuation of the Hong Kong protests? I wish you'd keep posting links to your sources.

[Warren Dew]

(08-30-2019, 08:25 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-29-2019, 09:25 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: If interest rates are below zero because the economy is shrinking, commodities like gold are likely to be decreasing in value too.  Really only storing cash works in that situation.

I would hope that we're not going to copy Germany, and pretend that we can't inflate our way past this.  I think we've proven that handing money to the rich is a non-starter, so  next time, it will be massive public works … as it should have been under Obama.  Frankly, under Trump, programs like that would be hand-outs --  both ineffectual and impoverishing.

Neither public works nor handing money to the "rich", which from the left generally means "anyone who works for their money", have anything to do with inflation.  Inflation is controlled by monetary policy, not fiscal policy.

Jerome Powell is doing a good job of shifting the fed from a policy of erring on the conservative side on inflation - keeping inflation below 2% - to actually targeting a small amount of inflation - keeping inflation at or near 2%.  As long as he manages that, I don't think we'll get into the situation Germany has.

Of course, Germany's fertility rate of 1.47 provides strong pressure for a shrinking economy, so that makes their job harder.  The US is at a near replacement level of 1.89, so we don't have as big a problem to deal with.

[John J. Xenakis]

(08-30-2019, 09:54 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Are we talking about a "pro-democracy" protest in Beijing, or a
> continuation of the Hong Kong protests? I wish you'd keep posting
> links to your sources.

A pro-democracy protest in Hong Kong. This was a correspondent
speaking on tv, so I didn't have a link.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 31-Aug-19 World View -- Russia declares farcical 'ceasefire' as Syrians try to storm Turkey border post

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Idlib Syria civilians push into Turkey
  
• Russia declares a farcical ceasefire
  
• Israel bombs Lebanon, Syria and Iraq all in one weekend
  
• Mainland China troops poised to crush Hong Kong protesters
  

****
**** Idlib Syria civilians push into Turkey
****


Displaced Syrians are stopped trying to cross the border into Turkey (AFP)

Hundreds of civilians in Syria's Idlib province on Friday tried to
push across the border into Turkey.

As the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia's
army and air force, has been pushing farther into Idlib province, tens
of thousands of additional civilians are being forced to flee their
homes, and are moving northwest to the border with Turkey.

There are three million civilians in Idlib, including hundreds of
thousands of displaced people living in refugee camps in the
northwest. About 70,000 people in Idlib are anti-Assad rebels, but
al-Assad has declared all three million people to be "terrorists," and
he's made it clear repeatedly that he plans to exterminate them like
cockroaches.

United Nations officials continue to express alarm at the continued
attacks by al-Assad, and are fearing a major humanitarian disaster, as
they try to flee into Turkey and are blocked. Turkey, which already
hosts 3.5 million Syrians who fled al-Assad's violence since 2011,
does not wish to have to host possibly a million more. Germany and
other European countries are trying to pressure Turkey and Russia to
bring al-Assad to heel, out of fear of another wave of Syrian refugees
pouring across the border into Europe.

****
**** Russia declares a farcical ceasefire
****

With hundreds of Syrians pushing across the border into Turkey on
Friday, we may be seeing the beginning of large wave of thousands of
displaced people, with resulting alarm in Turkey and Europe.

So Russia took hard-hitting action on Friday by declaring a
"unilateral ceasefire," starting on Saturday morning.

There has been one farcical ceasefire after another in the last eight
years. As usual, Bashar al-Assad didn't agree to the ceasefire, and
the anti-Assad rebels didn't agree to the ceasefire.

Historically, al-Assad has always made a mockery of these ceasefires,
and this one is sure to be no different.

****
**** Israel bombs Lebanon, Syria and Iraq all in one weekend
****

Israel raised tensions in the Mideast last weekend by attacking
Iranian assets in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.

According to Israeli sources, the attacks in Iraq and Syria were
airstrikes against components of precision guided missiles being
transported from Iran to Lebanon for use by Hezbollah against Israel.
Starting in 2012, Iran tried by failed to bring precision guided
missiles into Lebanon, but Israeli airstrikes destroyed the missiles
in transit each time. For the last three years, Iran has been tring
to bring components into Lebanon, to be assembled into missiles there.
The airstrikes in Iraq and Syria was targeting the components,
according to Israeli sources.

The situation in Lebanon was a little different. Israel did not
launch airstrikes into Lebanon. Instead, Israel sent two unmanned
drones into Lebanon to crash into targets in Beirut, Lebanon's capital
city.

At first it appeared that the drones had been shot down by Hezbollah.
Then it was reported that the drones were targeting guided missile
comnponents, same as the Iraq and Syria airstrikes.

However Debka, an analyst service based on Israeli military and
intelligence sources, but which sometimes gets things wrong, is
reporting that the drone strikes into Beirut were actually a targeted
assassination, targeting Iran’s Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani,
who is the Iranian commander that Hezbollah's chief Sayyed Hasan
Nasrallah reports to. According to the report, the first of the two
drones was unarmed on a reconnaissance mission to track the movements
of Soleimani, but crash landed when a boy threw a rock at it. The the
second drone was to kill Soleimani. Although the second drone did hit
a car and explode, it did not kill Soleimani.

Soleimani called the attack "insane." Hezbollah has threatened
retaliation.

There are concerns that last weekends multiple attacks were a first
step in a new war by Israel against Iran and Hezbollah. This weekend,
Israeli troops are on high alert near the Lebanon border.

****
**** Mainland China troops poised to crush Hong Kong protesters
****

Pro-democracy protesters had planned a large public protest on
Saturday evening (Saturday morning ET), possibly as large as the
protest last month with two million protesters, 25% of the population.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing did the following:

• Arrested some protest leaders
  
• Declared that Saturday's protest is illegal
  
• Rotated out the troops that have been occupying barracks in Hong
  Kong for years, and is now replacing them with riot troops and riot
  vehicles.
  
• Told people to stay at home on Saturday evening

The organizers of the pro-democracy protests called off Saturday's
protests, saying that they couldn't guarantee the safety of the
demonstrators

However, a Fox News Hong Kong correspondent (Jonathan Hunt) said that
he has just interviewed some of the extremists ("in an undisclosed
location") and they're saying the following:

• The peaceful protesters will stay at home
  
• The CCP's actions have energized the extremist protesters
  
• Extremist protesters will be out on Saturday evening, with
  confrontational protests and probably violence

The question always is: How long will the CCP allow this to go on.
There's effectively a hard deadline of October 1, the 70th anniversary
of the founding of Communist China, and it's believed that the
protests must be "settled or crushed" by October 1.

You can always count on the CCP to do the stupidest, most incompetent,
and most self-destructive thing, so the logic of the situation
requires a Tiananmen Square type intervention within the next month,
in time for Hong Kong to be out of the news by October 1. That
suggests that the deadline for action is pretty close.

Sources:

• Turkish military convoy headed to Khan Sheikhoun targeted in Idlib by Syria regime bombing (DailySabah, 19-Aug-2019)
  
• Desperate Syrians storm Turkish border post in protest over Assad offensive (Independent-uk, 30-Aug-2019)
  
• Russia declares 'ceasefire' as Syrians try to storm border post (AlJaz, 30-Aug-2019)
  
• Lebanon's President Aoun likens Israeli drones to 'declaration of war' (Reuters, 26-Aug-2019)
  
• Israel in counter-terror mode: Beirut drone attack was targeted assassination. Strikes on Lebanese Beqaa. Drone hits PMU convoy (Debka, 26-Aug-2019)
  
• Israel to Hizballah: A crushing Israeli response will come – even for a “limited reprisal” (Debka, 28-Aug-2019)

Related Articles:

• Syria regime wins major victory in Idilb, after attacking Turkish military convoy (23-Aug-2019)
  
  
• Syria war may be fizzling, as al-Assad 'hits a wall' in Idlib (12-Jul-2019)
  
  
• Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria (01-Dec-2018)
  
  
• As October 25 deadline approaches, Syria's Idlib is set up for a classic Greek tragedy (05-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China (22-Jun-2019)
  
  
• UK-China war of words escalates sharply over Hong Kong riots (04-Jul-2019)
  
  
• US-China trade war seriously disrupts world trade (16-Aug-2019)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib,
Turkey, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Iran, Hezbollah, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Shia Crescent, Iraq, Lebanon, Israel, Qassem Soleimani,
China, Hong Kong, Chinese Communist Party, CCP

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John J. Xenakis
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[David Horn]

(08-30-2019, 10:05 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-30-2019, 08:25 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-29-2019, 09:25 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: If interest rates are below zero because the economy is shrinking, commodities like gold are likely to be decreasing in value too.  Really only storing cash works in that situation.

I would hope that we're not going to copy Germany, and pretend that we can't inflate our way past this.  I think we've proven that handing money to the rich is a non-starter, so  next time, it will be massive public works … as it should have been under Obama.  Frankly, under Trump, programs like that would be hand-outs --  both ineffectual and impoverishing.

Neither public works nor handing money to the "rich", which from the left generally means "anyone who works for their money", have anything to do with inflation.  Inflation is controlled by monetary policy, not fiscal policy.

Nonsense on every point! First, handing money to the rich is exemplified by the last tax bill, that cut corporate rates (helping stock holders primarily), cutting rates on capital gains (ditto, in spades) and removing many deductions that are typically used by "anyone who works for a living". Second, the idea that monetary policy alone drives inflation is simply wrong. Putting money into circulation through borrowing or spending is little different, and $1T a year deficits simply aren't sustainable over a time period longer than a few years. They are unjustified in what is supposed to be a god economy.

Warren Dew Wrote:Jerome Powell is doing a good job of shifting the fed from a policy of erring on the conservative side on inflation - keeping inflation below 2% - to actually targeting a small amount of inflation - keeping inflation at or near 2%.  As long as he manages that, I don't think we'll get into the situation Germany has.

Even Quantitative Easing, involving vast additions to the Fed balance sheet, didn't push inflation to 2%. We have low unemployment that is composed of far too many crappy jobs, with the crappy-jobs to good-jobs ratio steadily rising. If you want good jobs, at least until we figure out how to run the economy with few if any jobs, then big non-military spending programs are a must. We need infrastructure of all kinds everywhere. This should be a no-brainer.

Warren Dew Wrote:Of course, Germany's fertility rate of 1.47 provides strong pressure for a shrinking economy, so that makes their job harder.  The US is at a near replacement level of 1.89, so we don't have as big a problem to deal with.

Germany has chosen to run surpluses on a continuous basis. Everyone else pays for that, and the pressure on them to back off, stimulate their economy with borrowing and fix their depleted infrastructure is getting louder. When Angela Merkle departs, who replaces her will determine whether the EU continues. The Germans are stubborn. I'm betting against.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 01-Sep-2019 World View: Russia Turkey

Guest Wrote:> How much longer is Turkey going to keep playing along with the
> Russians? The Russian air defense missile system has derailed
> their relationship with Nato, and despite your predictions, the
> Turks are becoming highly anti-Chinese. The Turks may find
> themselves alone.

Turkey is so centrally located, almost at the center of the
geopolitical world, that there are no simple analyses.

A generational crisis war is a threat to a country's existence and its
way of life. The choice of allies and enemies at such a time is not
an ephemeral political decision, but is based on core values and
relationships that have developed over centuries. The easiest way to
predict a country's choice of allies and enemies is to look at its
choices of allies and enemies over previous crisis wars for centuries.

Now, applying that test to Turkey, if we look back to the last
two crisis wars -- World War I and the Crimean War -- we see that
Turkey has had mixed relations with Nato countries and with Arab
countries, but has always had Russia as an enemy.

Russia and China have been enemies to their core, so they're
going to be enemies. So Russia will be fighting both
Turkey and China.

It's often true that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," but not
entirely. Turkey has had deep historic relations with the Turkic
groups in Central Asia, including the Uighurs in East Turkistan
(China's Xinjiang province). So it's possible that Turkey and China
will cooperate against Russia, but will end up fighting each other in
Central Asia.

Turkey's relation with the Arab world is similarly confusing. The
Ottomans had Arab allies and enemies during the period of its
collapse, and the enmities are becoming exposed again in the last
three years with the vicious split between Saudi Arabia + UAE +
Bahrain + Egypt vs Qatar and Iran, with Turkey siding with Qatar.
There's a lot going on here that requires a deep analysis of Arab
relations for at least a couple of centuries, but I don't have time to
do it.



---- Source:


-- Uighurs / Will Turkey and China Become Friends?
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/poli...me-friends
(WashingtonInstitute, 14-Aug-2019)

---- Related:

** 31-Aug-19 World View -- Russia declares farcical 'ceasefire' as Syrians try to storm Turkey border post
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190831


** 23-Aug-19 World View -- Syria regime wins major victory in Idilb, after attacking Turkish military convoy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190823


** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e151125

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Sep-19 World View -- Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon border clash fizzles quickly, no repeat of 2006 war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Outbreak of hostilities on Lebanon-Israel border called worst since 2006
  
• Israel's drone strike on Beirut targeted Iran's guided missile components
  
• Echoes of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war
  

****
**** Outbreak of hostilities on Lebanon-Israel border called worst since 2006
****


Israeli soldiers with artillery units near the country’s border with Lebanon (Guardian)

Israel's army fired hundreds of artillery shells into southern Lebanon
on Sunday, in response to a Hezbollah attack, launching two or three
anti-tank missiles into an Israeli military base in northern Israel.
There were no casualties on either side.

Analysts are calling the cross-border shelling the worst hostilities
between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah since the end of the 2006 war
between them.

Israel's army along the Lebanon border has been on high alert all
week, since Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah promised
retaliation for last week's drone strikes by Israel into targets in
Beirut, Lebanon's capital city.

It now appears that neither Hezbollah nor Israel wants a war, and that
the exchange of fire was just for show for domestic audiences.

****
**** Israel's drone strike on Beirut targeted Iran's guided missile components
****

In my article two days ago, I quoted a report from Debka saying that
the drone attack was was actually a targeted assassination, targeting
Iran’s Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who is the Iranian
commander that Hezbollah's chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah reports to.

A web site reader has pointed out an alternative narrative that
differs from the Debka report. As I often point out, Debka reports
are based on Israeli military and intelligence sources, but they
sometimes gets things wrong, and apparently Debka may have gotten the
Beirut drone attack quite wrong.

According to the report from the Metula News Agency, the drone attacks
in Beirut were targeting a particular component, supplied by Iran, for
building guided missiles, in particular an eight-ton Iranian
propulsion fuel mixer. According to the report (translation):

<QUOTE>"The industrial mixer in question was to be used to
prepare missile propulsion fuel to improve their performance and
increase their accuracy. It was supposed to be part of the
Iran-Hezbollah program to modify the tens of thousands of
primitive rockets in its possession in order to turn them into
precision missiles.

The equipment arrived from Iran was deposited in a storage place
between residential buildings to dissuade the Israelis trying to
destroy them. Hezbollah planned to take them to a safe place
during the current week. ...

These devices are essential to the rocket transformation program,
according to the confession of a Shiite militiaman I met on site
yesterday (Tuesday) while going to observe the place of the main
explosion. If the mixer can be repaired or exchanged within a few
weeks, the electronic control unit, packed with expensive
components, will not be available for a few months. This, as long
as it can be routed from Iran escaping the raids of the Israelis,
who obviously know everything that happens here in Syria, Iraq and
Iran, and who choose the best time to destroy equipment likely to
disturb them."<END QUOTE>

The Metula report goes on to deny other claims in the Debka report,
particularly the claim that one of the drones crashed after a boy
threw a rock at it.

If the Metula report is correct, then it must be a major embarrasment
to Debka that they got almost every detail of the story completely
wrong.

Hezbollah has thousands of unguided rockets, but few guided missiles.
Israel has managed so far to thwart every attempt by Iran to supply
Hezbollah with guided missiles.

****
**** Echoes of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war
****

Most journalists are comparing the situation today to the beginning of
the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers near
Israel's border with Lebanon. Israel went into a total panic, and
rushed into war within four hours. There was no clear objective.
Actually there was no objective at all, and no plan. The stated plans
and objectives changed on a daily, sometimes hourly basis. Initially,
Israel was going to use only air power. When that failed, they sent
in troops.

While Israel was in a generational Crisis era, Lebanon was in a
generational Awakening era, and really didn't want to fight a war. I
discussed this at length in 2006 war between Israel and Hizbollah. I quoted Lebanese President Émile
Geamil Lahoud as saying:

<QUOTE>"Believe me, what we get from [Israeli bombers] is
nothing compared to [what would happen] if there is an internal
conflict [a new civil war] in Lebanon. So our thanks comes when we
are united, and we are really united, and the national army is
doing its work according to the government, and the resistance
[Hizbollah] is respected in the whole Arab world from the
population point of view. And very highly respected in Lebanon as
well."<END QUOTE>

The Lebanese feared, above all else, a repeat of something like the
1982 massacre at Sabra and Shatila, and considered that to be a worse
possibility than Israeli bombers.

So that explains why Lebanon and Hezbollah didn't want to fight in
2006. But why did Israel go into a state of chaotic panic? This
panic is actually explained by the Generational Dynamics "58-Year
Hypothesis."

The 58-year Hypothesis says that when some sort of calamitous event
occurs, something so horrific that it traumatizes the entire
population, adults and children alike, then the population will panic
in some way exactly 58 years later. That's because 5-10 year old
children at the time of the calamitous event all retire or die or lose
power, all at once, 58 years calamitous event, and it's this cohort of
people who panic, because they suddenly realize that they'll be gone
and the calimitous event could happen again, because they won't be
around to prevent it. The calimitous event has to be non-political,
and one that was preventable but not prevented, and the panic comes
from a fear that it will be unprevented once more.

The 58-year Hypothesis is reasonable, since it approximates the length
of the active life of a cohort of people born in a given year, and
it's supported by a lot of anecdotal evidence. There have now been so
many examples of anecdotal evidence, that it might now be reasonable
to call it the "58-Year Law."

In the case we're discussing, 2006 Israeli-Lebanon war occurred 58
years after the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that followed the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
That actually explains why Israel totally panicked and pursued the war
that turned into a disaster for both Lebanon and Israel. There was a
cohort of people who were afraid of a major new war between Jews and
Arabs, and they acted on those fears.

After the war ended, Lebanon appeared to be descending into
chaos. Violence was increasing, and analysts and politicians around
the world openly expressed fear of a major civil war in Lebanon
between government (anti-Syrian) forces and (pro-Syrian) Hizbollah.
This fear was almost universal, among international media, analysts
and politicians.

I wrote that the generational analysis of Lebanon had not changed, and
that a civil war at that time was impossible. I wrote that there would
be a major political battle and that, at some point, "a political
winner would be declared -- either the current government or
Hizbollah. But there won't be a civil war." That was the generational
prediction, and it turned out to be true. Late in 2008, I received
the following e-mail message from a web site reader:

<QUOTE>"I am very impressed with your site, especially when
looking at some of your past predictions. I was trapped in Lebanon
during the fighting and everyone was in great fear that a civil
war was in progress. You predicted that it would fizzle out, and
it did."<END QUOTE>

That brings us up to today, and Sunday's border clash between
Hezbollah and Israel's army.

Numerous journalists have been expressing anxiety that the border
clashes would trigger a new war, like the abduction of the two
soldiers in 2006. Well first off, the Israelis had learned their
lessons from the 2006 war, and were certainly never going to allow
themselves to panic again. They were completely crazy in 2006, but
less crazy today. And Lebanon is still in a generational Awakening
era, so neither side wants a war, and the cross-border shelling
fizzled quickly.

Sources:

• Israel and Hezbollah trade cross-border fire for first time in years (Guardian, London, 1-Sep-2019)
  
• Hezbollah and Israel trade fire near Lebanese-Israeli border, stoking fears of an escalating battle (LATimes, 1-Sep-2019)
  
• Hezbollah fires into Israel, IDF responds, as tension keeps mounting (Jerusalem Post, 1-Sep-2019)
  
• Hezbollah Missiles Hit Israeli Base, Military Vehicle on Lebanese Border; No Casualties (Haaretz, Israel, 1-Sep-2019)
  
• Israel, Hezbollah exchange fire at Lebanon border (Al-Jazeera, 1-Sep-2019)
  
• Analysis of Israeli drone strikes on Lebanon (in French) (Metula News Agency, 28-Aug-2019)

Related articles:

• Israel bombs Lebanon, Syria and Iraq all in one weekend (31-Aug-2019)
  
  
• How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hezbollah (23-Dec-2006)
  
  
• Israel/Lebanon war forces Muslims to choose (24-Jul-2006)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah,
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Émile Geamil Lahoud,
Sabra, Shatila, 58-year hypothesis

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John J. Xenakis
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