*** 16-Sep-20 World View -- Economic powerhouse Vietnam scrambles to recover from pandemic setbacks
This morning's key headlines from
GenerationalDynamics.com
- Economic powerhouse Vietnam scrambles to recover from pandemic setbacks
- Vietnam's successful fight against the Wuhan Coronavirus
- Vietnam focuses on foreign investment and trade
- Government heightened focus on high tech and artificial intelligence
- Human Rights
- Marxist Socialism before Marx -- Vietnam's Tay-Son rebellion
- Aftermath of the Tay-Son rebellion
- Vietnam's future
****
**** Economic powerhouse Vietnam scrambles to recover from pandemic setbacks
****
(I am currently writing a book on the history of Vietnam,
following my books on the histories of China and Iran. Vietnam has a
long, complex history, heavily influenced by both India and China.
This article provides some advance information from the new
book.)
![[Image: g200915b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200915b.jpg)
Danang, Vietnam, on Aug 17. The city was on lockdown and thousands had been evacuated because of the pandemic. (VOA)
Up until the last two months, Vietnam was considered the undisputed
economic powerhouse of southeast Asia. In 1986, the hard-core
communist government saw that their Marxist Socialist policies were
causing economic disaster, and they instituted the "Doi Moi" reforms
that began to privatize government businesses, and reduced regulations
on foreign direct investment (FDI). These capitalistic reforms have
been extremely successful, and Vietnam's economy has shown spectacular
growth for over three decades. Vietnam also benefited greatly from
the US-China trade dispute, which caused may Chinese businesses to
relocate to Vietnam.
Another reason for Vietnam's economic success is that its population
is relatively young, a large percentage having been born since 1975,
the end of the "Vietnam-American war." This especially makes Vietnam
a large market for Japanese goods, with Japan's median age over 50.
Vietnam's economic success has depended on FDI and on global economic
growth, but both of those have fallen sharply with the Wuhan
coronavirus pandemic, with the result that Vietnam's economy has
recently fallen off a cliff.
Both Russia and China were forced to abandon their Marxist Socialist
policies in the past, in favor of capitalism and privatization
reforms. The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) is trying to learn from
the Russian and Chinese experiences, and keep its economic growth
continuing, without making the same mistakes that Russia and China
made and are making.
Unfortunately, there's a dark side to the CPV's economic reforms. The
dark side is that they weren't accompanied by human rights reforms.
Implementing economic reforms without human rights reforms means that
CPV is no longer a Communist, Socialist or Marxist government, but
instead has become a Fascist dictatorship. In this sense, it is
following China's path, though not Russia's path.
Ironically, Vietnam has previously had a Marxist Socialist government
for three decades in the Tay-Son Rebellion of the late 1700s --
decades before Marx was even born. This previous experiment with
Marxist Socialism was a disaster, but unfortunately the CPV has not
learned any lessons from that disaster.
****
**** Vietnam's successful fight against the Wuhan Coronavirus
****
Those who are hoping for a quick economic recovery in Vietnam are
pointing to the country's successful response to the Wuhan Coronavirus
pandemic, which is already in a "second wave" in Vietnam.
Vietnam had very few cases for months, using what was described as
"cost-effectives" methods of virus control. These included health
checks at airports and borders, strategic testing, contact tracing
through mobile apps, effective public communication campaigns, and a
national lockdown in April. On May 4, millions of students went back
to school after three months at home, making Vietnam one of the first
in Southeast Asia to ease movement restrictions.
The Vietnamese thought that they had the virus all but defeated. By
July 25, Vietnam had remarkably been completely free of local
transmission of the virus for almost 100 days, and had quickly
isolated anyone entering the country with the virus.
But then a "second wave" began unexpectedly on July 25, with a new
local transmission outbreak began in the coastal city of Danang, a
popular tourist destination. By July 31, there were 82 new cases in a
single day, more than half in Danang. On the same day, Vietnam
reported its first death due to the illness.
So Vietnam quickly decided to evacuate 80,000 people from Danang, so
that large-scale sterilization procedures could be set up to control
the virus. From the Western point of view this is absolutely
incredible, and it shows the difference between fascist governments
like China and Vietnam, versus Western democracies, where those kinds
of drastic measures would be impossible. They may all have open or
partially open economies, but only a fascist CPV government could
evacuate 80,000 people quickly from a city by force.
It may be that this drastic technique was successful, as there have
been no new community transmissions in Vietnam for the last week.
There are concerns about whether Vietnam will successfully manage a
new surge in the fall, but the Vietnam government expects to do so.
According to a UN representative in Vietnam, "I am confident that the
country will be successful in its efforts to once again successfully
contain the virus, once more over the next few weeks."
****
**** Vietnam focuses on foreign investment and trade
****
It's been pretty clear for several months that Vietnam's economy is
contracting sharply this year, thanks to the pandemic. Vietnam's Doi
Moi reforms were designed to encourage foreign direct investment (FDI)
and trade, and so its economy today is extremely dependent on global
trade, with exports equivalent to over 70% of GDP.
The pandemic caused global trade to fall drastically, estimated at an
8% contraction in 2020. Thus, exports from Vietnam fell 12.1% in
March from a year ago. This was followed by a 14% drop in April, and
a 12.4% drop in May.
But the economy is coming back. According to research by Euromonitor,
Vietnam ranks second out of 50 economies in merger and acquisitions
attractiveness. Exports climbed 2.5% in August compared to a year ago,
with shipments to the U.S. rising 19% in the first eight months of
2020. However, this is not all good news. Exports from domestic
companies in August increased 18.3% year-on-year, while foreign
companies in Vietnam experienced a 4.6% decline. Figures like these
inevitably raise suspicions that the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV)
government is unfairly favoring domestic companies.
The CPV is taking numerous steps to restore economic growth,
especially trade, as quickly as possible.
In June, the CPV ratified a free trade agreement with the European
Union that will cut or eliminate 99% of tariffs on goods traded
between Vietnam and the EU. The deal was controversial in Europe
because of the CPV's human and labor rights record, although the
agreement supposedly addresses those abuses. It will open up
Vietnam’s services, including post, banking, shipping and public
procurement markets, align some standards and protect EU food and
drinks, such as French champagne or Greek feta cheese, from imitations
in Vietnam.
In the area of energy, Vietnam is currently working with ExxonMobil to
develop the Blue Whale gas field off the country’s central coast,
which has an estimated reserve of 150 billion cubic meters. Gas from
this field will be used to run three gas-fired power plants slated to
be built at the nearby Dung Quat Economic Zone.
In the area of manufacturing, Vietnam's primary industry of textile
and garment exports fell 22%. The decline in global textile demand
has led these businesses to manufacture PPE instead, producing nearly
three billion masks a month.
****
**** Government heightened focus on high tech and artificial intelligence
****
The CPV is seeking to support high tech firms with a number of
financial incentives.
High tech firms have not only seen their real estate fees reduced or
waived completely, but have also been able to take preferential loans
with half the general interest rate. SMEs with a revenue of 200
billion dong ($8.8 million) will also see a 30% reduction in corporate
income taxes.
In Vietnam, the Communist Party owns all the land, and grants various
individuals and businesses the right to use the land, in return for
payments to the CPV. The CPV has reduced or eliminated real estate
fees for high tech firms, and have granted them loans at low interest
rates.
The CPV itself has invested heavily in the tech sector. Hanoi-based
Viettel Group, the largest state-owned military telecommunications
company, is investing $30 million in 5G labs to manufacture 5G chips
en masse to create a national 5G infrastructure.
The investments have paid off. Dozens of AI tech firms were founded
in the last two years, and Vietnam has an increasingly sophisticated
workforce. Vietnam is also benefiting from the US-China trade
dispute. A number of foreign high-tech firms are relocating their
supply chains from China to Vietnam, due to cheaper production costs
and geopolitical stability. These include South Korea's consumer
electronics companies LG Group and Samsung Group. Dozens of Japanese
companies have made similar shifts, including Toyota Motor Corp.,
Honda Motor Co, Panasonic Corp., and Canon Inc.
Australia's government is heavily supporting AI development in
Vietnam. Through its Aus4Innovation program, Australia's Ministry of
Science and Technology has already provided millions of dollars in
funding for partnerships between Vietnamese and Austrailian
institutions for commercialization of science and technology across
Vietnam. New funding of almost half a million dollars is specifically
targeted to AI applications to assist Vietnam's economic recovery
after the coronavirus pandemic.
****
**** Human Rights
****
The economic future of Vietnam seems very bright, but there's also a
very dark side to Vietnam, and that's in the area of human rights.
The CPV adopted the "doi moi" economic reforms for purely monetary
reasons -- to encourage foreign investment that benefits the country
in general and the CPV in particular, by keeping it in power.
However, the CPV did not reform the harsh, abusive public policies.
Like the Communist Party in China, the CPV has a paranoid fear of
religion-based rebellions. The thugs in both Communist parties
consider themselves to be more important than their countries, or than
anything. These are vicious, greedy, abusive dictators, scared to
death that any sort of religious prayer would mean the destruction of
the Communist Party itself, and the loss of their jobs.
In Vietnam, Christians and Buddhists are particular targets of
CPV abuse -- arrest, torture, jailings or execution -- just for
praying to their gods rather than to the Communist Party thugs.
This abusive behavior is quite widespread, but a particularly
interesting example is the Christian Hmong ethnic group in Laos, just
across the North Vietnam border in Laos.
The Vietnamese brutally massacred the Hmong in the late 1970s, even
performing such atrocities as cutting off penises or widespread rape.
The Hmong in Vietnam continue to be persecuted by the CPV because of
their Christian religion.
There is a connection between the Hmong ethnic group and the death of
George Floyd early in 2020 in Minneapolis at the hands of a white
policemen, Derek Chauvin. Little has been reported about Chauvin's
past, except that he's married to Kellie Chauvin, a former
Mrs. Minnesota. She's an ethnic Hmong and a Hmong activist, born in
Laos, but fled to Thailand and became a refugee in the late 1970s,
when Vietnam was committing genocide. I haven't been able to find out
whether the Hmong connection was related in way to the death of George
Floyd.
****
**** Marxist Socialism before Marx -- Vietnam's Tay-Son rebellion
****
In one way or another, Vietnam has been around for millennia, and I
will make no attempt in this article to even summarize that history.
It is described in detail in my forthcoming book on the history of
Vietnam.
However, there's one snippet of Vietnam's history that's fascinating
now because of its relevance to today's world. It's about a three
decade period in the late 1700s, when Vietnam tried Marxist Socialism,
decades before Marx was born, with disastrous results as is always the
case with Marxist Socialism.
The story begins in 1400 with the Ho Dynasty, Vietnam's most hated
dynasty. In 1400, General Ho Quy Ly seized the throne and proclaimed
himself founder of the short-lived Ho dynasty (1400-1407). He
inflicted an enormous amount of suffering on the Vietnamese people, so
much so that the landowners appealed to China's Ming Dynasty to
intervene.
The Chinese took advantage of the situation. They invaded and
took control, and inflicted even worse human exploitation
than the Ho on the Vietnamese people, until they were ejected in 1428.
The Ho family came back with a vengeance in 1773, when three Ho
brothers from the Tay-Son district launched a rebellion. It's
apparently very easy to change your name in the Vietnam culture, and
so they changed from the hated Ho name to the popular Nguyen name,
although they were unconnected with the Nguyen family.
Their rebellion spread and gained strength quickly. Like all
Socialists, the Tay-Son bought popularity by spending other people's
money, starting by confiscating all the money of their own
constituents. The Tay-Son governing chief principle and main slogan
of the Tay Son was "seize the property of the rich and distribute it
to the poor." In each village the Tay Son controlled, oppressive
landlords and scholar-officials were punished and their property
redistributed. The Tay Son also abolished taxes, burned the tax and
land registers, freed prisoners from local jails, and distributed the
food from storehouses to the hungry. As the rebellion gathered
momentum, it gained the support of army deserters, merchants,
scholars, local officials, and bonzes. It was essentially a
modern-day Marxist Socialist government, though it existed long before
the birth of Karl Marx.
Like all Socialist regimes, they soon ran out of other people's money.
Modern day Socialist regimes turn to such things as drug dealing,
extortion or dictators to gain income. They also starve, torture,
jail and execute their political opponents still living in their
Socialist Paradise.
The Tay-Son rebels aligned themselves with Chinese pirates. The
targets of these Chinese pirates were Chinese commercial vessels.
Among other things, this gave the Tay-Son (Ho) brothers revenge for
the Chinese invasion in 1407 that removed the Ho Dynasty.
The benefits of the Tay-son - pirate relationship were mutual. The
pirates required bases and safe harbors on land where they could sell
booty, gain military and organization experience, careen and refit
ships, and carouse, and the rebels provided that to the pirates, along
with protection and legitimacy. In return, the rebels got the needed
manpower and revenues to fight against the entrenched bureaucracy.
By the 1780s, the Tay-Son brothers were so destitute from their
Socialist policies that they were completely dependent on the support
of Chinese pirates. According to one historian, pirates "became a
central feature of Tay Son naval strategy and indeed the regime’s
economy between 1786 and 1802."
In the 1790s, a prince from the real Nguyen family, Nguyen Phuc Ahn,
teamed up with French Christian missionaries and raised a mercenary
army in India and defeated the Tay-Son government on June 1, 1802.
The missionaries were willing to cooperate because the Tay-Son
brothers were persecuting Christians.
****
**** Aftermath of the Tay-Son rebellion
****
Nguyen Phuc Ahn began a new Nguyen Dynasty in 1802. He changed his
own name to Gina Long, and he changed the name of the country to Nam
Viet. The Chinese didn't like that name for historical reasons.
China recognized Gina Long as emperor of the new Nguyen Dynasty, but
insisted on naming the country Viet Nam, the first time that name was
used.
After a generational crisis civil war ends, the winning tribe or
ethnic group continues the conflict by harsh, abusive treatment of
ordinary people in the losing side after the war ends. Typically, the
winning side fears a renewed uprising by the losing side, and they
become paranoid and freely begin using harsh repression, torture and
jailings.
Gia Long was no exception. His regime harshly repressed any political
opposition that opposed the regime or the interests of the bureaucracy
and the landowners. Pre-Tay-Son taxes were reinstated. Pre-Tay-Son
prison punishments were reinstated, or were even more severe.
Gia Long followed strict "North Vietnam" Confucian style government
principles. Buddhism, Taoism, and indigenous religions were
forbidden, and these are characteristic of the "South Vietnam"
culture.
Initially, the new government was friendly to the French Christians,
since it was Christian missionaries that helped overthrow the
Tay-Sons. However, the growing number of converts to Christianity --
450,000 by 1841 -- with their disdain for Confucianism, were perceived
as a critical problem by the regime. By the 1830s, the regime issued
edicts that forbade the practice of Christianity, forcing the
Christian communities underground. An estimated ninety-five priests
and members of the laity were executed by the Vietnamese during the
following quarter of a century.
Tensions grew, and in early 1861, a French fleet of 70 ships and 3,500
men reinforced Saigon, and in June 1862, forced Vietnam's emperor to
cede Saigon and three provinces to the French.
France's navy continued traveling up the Mekong River, and by the end
of the century had colonized all of French Indochina, their new name
for Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. The French remained in control until
after World War II, and left completely after being defeated by human
wave assaults at Dien Bien Phu in 1954. Once again, Vietnam was
partitioned into North and South Vietnam.
****
**** Vietnam's future
****
The reason that I went into such detail about the Tay-Son rebellion is
because it's being replayed today. "History doesn't repeat itself,
but it rhymes."
North and South Vietnam were split in the 1760s. The Tay-Son (Ho)
brothers started a harsh Marxist revolution that began in 1773 and
lasted until 1802, with the result that North and South Vietnam were
reunited again. It was followed by decades of severe repression and
religious persecution. There would have been a new civil war around
1860 between North and South Vietnam, except that the French came and
colonized the region. North and South Vietnam remained united until
the French were ejected in 1954.
In 1954, after the defeat of the French colonizers, North and South
Vietnam were again split. Another Ho, the dictator Ho Chi Minh,
started a harsh Marxist revolution that began in 1954 and lasted until
the reforms in 1986. It was followed by decades of severe repression
and religious persecution, that are still going on today.
Vietnam may be united under control of the the CPV, but it is not
culturally united. For centuries, there have been many wars between
North and South Vietnam, and the core reasons haven't changed. This
is clear from many blog posts online today that the people of Saigon
(Ho Chi Minh city or HCMC) really do hate their CPV overlords and the
people of Hanoi, while the people of Hanoi consider the people of
Saigon to be sweet and nice, as if they were puppies.
The Vietnam-American war that ended in 1975 was just one more of a
long series of wars between the Sinicized-Confucian culture in North
Vietnam versus the Indianized-Buddhist culture in South Vietnam. From
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the time frame for a new
civil war would be around 2035. However, just as the French invasion
and colonization of French Indochina derailed the timeline for the
civil war that would otherwise have begun in 1860, the current
timeline could be derailed by an invasion from China or by a new world
war.
In the meantime, "it is what it is," to use the trite phrase. You can
visit Vietnam, you can work in Vietnam, you can live in Vietnam,
provided you understand the rules. The rules are that the CPV is very
harsh and oppressive, and saying or doing the wrong thing can get you
arrested, tortured or deported. And even if you find a comfortable
niche, the tensions and hostility between North and South are going to
be worse every year.
Vietnam is an exciting, interesting place to live or visit, and it has
a young, enthusiastic work force eager to succeed. Take advantage of
those benefits as long as you can, and just follow the rules.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00,
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/
John Xenakis is author of: "Generational Dynamics Anniversary Edition
- Forecasting America's Destiny", (Generational Theory Book Series,
Book 3), January 2020, Paperback: 359 pages, $14.99,
https://www.amazon.com/Generational-Dyna...732738629/
Sources:
- Vietnam a country study (Library Of Congress/PDF, 1987):
- Maritime violence and state formation in Vietnam: Piracy and the Tay Son Rebellion, 1771–1802 (Robert Antony, Jan-2014)
- Vietnam, India seek to boost garment and textile cooperation (Nhan Dan, CPV, Hanoi, 11-Sep-2020)
- Vietnam looks to cushion economy from shocks of new virus outbreak (Nhan Dan, CPV, Hanoi, 11-Sep-2020)
- Vietnam recovery prospects brightest in Southeast Asia: ICAEW (Sai Gon Giai Phong, CPV, Saigon, 11-Sep-2020)
- Economic reopening helps enterprises to recover (Sai Gon Giai Phong, CPV, Saigon, 11-Sep-2020)
- Vietnam ratifies free trade deal with EU (Reuters, 8-Jun-2020)
- Vietnam's outlook is 'one of the brightest' in Asia, UBS says (CNBC, 8-Jul-2020)
- Vietnam is reopening and its early coronavirus containment efforts may help it avoid a recession (CNBC, 5-May-2020)
- Japan-Vietnam Ties: The Economic and Strategic Relevance for Asia (The Geopolitics, 16-Jan-2020)
- Vietnam a rising Asian powerhouse: DBS report (Straits Times, Singapore, 30-May-2019)
- Vietnam faces AI stumbling block: developers (VnExpress, 17-Aug-2019)
- 24 Top Artificial Intelligence Companies in Vietnam (Clutch, 8-Sep-2020)
- Will Vietnamese companies be sidelined in the AI race? (Kr-Asia, 25-Sep-2019)
- Saigon / Vietnam to use AI to make Ho Chi Minh a smart city (Open Gov Asia, 5-Oct-2019)
- Vietnam’s AI Awakening: These 8 Startups Are Putting The Country On The Global AI Map (Analytics India Mag, 1-Mar-2019)
- Vietnam’s breakthrough strategy for AI economy (Boston Global Forum, 18-Jul-2018)
- Vietnam to halve 2020 GDP growth target due to pandemic (Nikkei Asian Review, 7-Sep-2020)
- Post-Abe, Vietnam-Japan Relations Have Nowhere to Go But Up (Diplomat, 11-Sep-2020)
- Assessing Vietnam’s Economic Prospects for Foreign Investors After COVID-19 (Vietnam-Briefing, 13-Aug-2020)
- Three-Decade Economic Boom Comes to a Sudden Halt in Vietnam (Bloomberg, 25-Aug-2020)
- Vietnam’s Economy Seen as Hopeful Despite Coronavirus Surge (VOA, 17-Aug-2020)
- Can Vietnam Beat A Second Wave? (Asean Post, 11-Sep-2020)
- Vietnam’s Low-Cost COVID-19 Strategy (Asean Post, 13-Apr-2020)
- The Strategic Significance of Vietnam-US Oil and Gas Cooperation (Diplomat, 7-Sep-2020)
- Vietnam soars high in global M&A attractiveness ranking (VnExpress, 11-Sep-2020)
- China / Russia / Perestroika and Pandemic: Privatization Slows in Communist Vietnam (VOA, 27-Aug-2020)
- Vietnam Weighs World Court Arbitration Against China if Maritime (VOA, 26-Aug-2020)
- With New COVID-19 Battle, Vietnam's Middle-Class Dreams are Deferred (VOA, 12-Aug-2020)
- The assault on Vietnam’s Hien Phap group (Asia Times, 9-Sep-2020)
- US-Vn Trade / As Growing Trade Partner, Vietnam Improves Economic Freedom (Daily Signal, 20-Aug-2020)
- Why Vietnam Has Become a Promising Alternative for US Businesses in Asia (Thailand-business, 9-Sep-2020)
- Survey of 68 Nations is Bright for Vietnam But in a Dim COVID-19 World (VOA, 17-Aug-2020)
- Vietnam Exports Rise 2.5% in Aug.; Inflation Slows to 3.18% (BNN Bloomberg, 30-Aug-2020)
- Fitch Affirms Vietnam Oil and Gas Group at 'BB'; Outlook Stable (Fitch Ratings, 11-Sep-2020)
- Microsoft helps Vietnam fight hackers amid US-China cloud rivalry (Nikkei Asia Review, 11-Sep-2020)
- AI / A Rising Vietnam: The Fourth Act (Rebellion Research, 13-Aug-2020)
- Australia kicks off new initiative helping Vietnam apply Artificial Intelligence for post COVID 19 economic recovery (Vietnam Embassy, Australia, 4-Aug-2020)
- Australia assists Vietnam to apply AI in post COVID-19 economic recovery (Nhan Dan, CPV, Hanoi, 5-Aug-2020)
- Use of military in disputes causing economic shock in China (Sunday Guardian Live, Mumbai, 23-Aug-2020)
- North-South divide persists in Vietnam (LATimes/AP, 4-Mar-2007)
- What’s Up With Buddhist Persecution in Vietnam? (Diplomat, 6-Aug-2019)
- Hmong: Religious Persecution Continues in Vietnam (Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization (UNPO), 18-Apr-2019)
- What’s Up With Buddhist Persecution in Vietnam? (Diplomat, 6-Aug-2019)
- What do Northern Vietnamese and Southern Vietnamese think of each other? (Quora, 10-May-2020)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Vietnam, Vietnam-American war,
Doi Moi reforms, Danang, Hanoi, Saigon, Ho Chi Minh City, HCMC,
Communist Party of Vietnam, CPV, Viettel Group,
Wuhan Coronavirus, China, Australia, Aus4Innovation,
Laos, Hmong ethnic group, Kellie Chauvin, Derek Chauvin,
Tay-Son Rebellion, Marxism, Ho Quy Ly, Ho brothers, Ho Chi Minh,
Chinese pirates, Nguyen Phuc Ahn, Gina Long, French Indochina
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