Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-May-16 World View -- Iran-India sign 'historic' Chabahar port deal to counter Pakistan-China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran and India sign 'historic' deal for Iran's Chabahar port
  
• Chabahar port deal highlights enmity between Iran-India versus Pakistan-China
  
• Iran, India and the classic fables of Kalileh-wa-Dimneh, Jataka and Panchatantra
  
• The Caspian Corridor and the New Silk Road
  

****
**** Iran and India sign 'historic' deal for Iran's Chabahar port
****


Map displaying the trade routes related to the Chabahar and Gwadar ports (Defence.pk)

In a two-day visit to Iran's capital city Tehran, India's prime
minister Narendra Modi and Iran's president Hassan Rouhani signed a
dozen commercial, security and cultural agreements.

The most important was the "historic" Chabahar Port agreement.
Chabahar is on the coast of Iran near Pakistan. India has agreed to
invest $500 million to significantly increase the size of this port.
Using it, India will be able to bypass Pakistan in shipping goods to
Iran, and from there to Afghanistan, Central Asia or Europe.
(Chabahar is the large red star on the map above, and the red lines
are proposed travel routes from Mumbai to Chabahar, through Iran to
Central Asia and Europe.)

The proposal fo build up the Chabahar has been discussed since the
1990s, but agreements have been slow to come. Then the whole project
was put on hold because of international sanctions on Tehran. So this
deal comes just four months after international sanctions have been
lifted.

China has been investing heavily in the Pakistan's port at Gwadar,
shown by the large purple star in the map above. The purple lines
show China's trade routes to the Mideast:

• The thin purple lines show China's traditional trade route --
  through the South China Sea, then through the Strait of Malacca
  through the Andaman Sea to ports in Burma, then through the Bay of
  Bengal to ports in Sri Lanka, and then across the Indian Ocean. The
  small purple stars show China's "String of Pearls" port facilities
  along the route.
  
  
• The thick purple lines show the overland route between China,
  through Pakistan, to the port of Gwadar.

A visitor from Mars might wonder why India doesn't just ship
commercial goods over land through Pakistan to the port of Gwadar or
to Iran. The answer is that in December of last year, Pakistan's
government said that it would not permit Indian goods to be
transported across Pakistan.

Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani was also in Tehran on Tuesday to
join in the announcement of the Chabahar Port agreement. The
agreement is significant for Afghanistan, because it will mean a great
deal of increased trade with its ally, India. Indian Express and Tehran Times and Dawn (Pakistan - 10-Dec-2015)

****
**** Chabahar port deal highlights enmity between Iran-India versus Pakistan-China
****


Narendra Modi, Hassan Rouhani and Ashraf Ghani in Tehran on Tuesday (PTI)

Long-time readers are aware that for ten years I've been reporting
that Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, America will be allied with India, Russia and
Iran, versus China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. ( "15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal"
)

In the case of Iran, the generational analysis was pretty
straightforward. In the early 2000s, there were numerous pro-Western
and pro-American riots and demonstrations by college students in Iran.
Of course, the Iranian hardliners crushed them violently, but doing
that didn't change any hearts and minds. Today, those college
students are in the 30s, in positions of power, and they retain those
pro-Western views. ( "9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement"
)

Obviously, that analysis only goes back about 15 years. But in fact,
Hindus and Shias have been closely linked for many centuries, and it's
particularly significant that in 681 AD Hindus fought on the side of
(what would become) the Shias in the most important battle in Islam's
post-Mohammed history -- the Battle of Karbala, the battle that
permanently split the Muslim world of the time into the Sunni and Shia
branches.

During the visit by India's prime minister Narendra Modi to Tehran,
Modi gave a speech that emphasized the long relationship between the
two cultures:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Centuries of free exchange of ideas and traditions,
poets and craftsmen, art and architecture, culture and commerce
have enriched both our civilizations. Our heritage has also been a
source of strength and economic growth for our nations. The
richness of Persian heritage is an integral part of the fabric of
the Indian society. A part of Iranian culture lives in Indian
hearts. And, a slice of Indian heritage is woven into the Iranian
society. Our ancient heroes and epics bear striking parallels. The
dargahs of Azmer Sharif and Hazrat Nizamuddin in India are equally
revered in Iran. Mahabharata and Shahnama, Bhima and Rustam,
Arjuna and Arsh exhibit similarity in our world views and
values. ...

As two ancient civilizations, we are known for our ability to be
inclusive and welcoming to foreign cultures. Our contacts have not
just refined our own cultures. They have also contributed to the
growth of moderate and tolerant societies globally. Sufism a rich
product of our ancient links, carried its message of true love,
tolerance and acceptance to the entire mankind. The spirit of
Sufism is also reflected in the Indian concept of ‘Vasudhaiva
Kutumbakam’, the World as one family. ...

India and Iran have always been partners and friends. Our
historical ties may have seen their share of ups and downs. But,
throughout our partnership has remained a source of boundless
strength for both of us. Time has come for us to regain the past
glory of traditional ties and links. Time has come for us to march
together. In this endeavor, you, the eminent scholars have a
defining role to play."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

After reading that, compare it to the words of China's president Xi
Jinping when he visited Pakistan in April of last year to sign
numerous commercial, security and cultural agreements, including plans
for a $46 billion transportation corridor from Xinjiang province to
the port of Gwadar. ( "27-Apr-15 World View -- China extends its military buildup with Pakistan"
)

During Xi's "historic" visit to Pakistan, he said the following:

[indent]<QUOTE>"This will be my first trip to Pakistan, but I feel as
if I am going to visit the home of my own brother. Over the years,
thanks to the nurturing of generations of leaders and people from
all sectors of both countries, China-Pakistan friendship has
flourished like a tree growing tall and strong. No matter how the
circumstances in our two countries, the region and the world
change, our bilateral relations have enjoyed sound and steady
growth. We have always respected, understood and supported each
other on issues concerning our respective core interests. In
Pakistan, our relationship is poetically hailed as a friendship
“higher than mountains, deeper than oceans and sweeter than
honey.” In China, Pakistan is known as a sincere and reliable
friend. Obviously, China-Pakistan friendship is deeply felt in the
hearts of our two peoples."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In May 2011, Pakistan's ambassador to China Masood Khan described the relationship between Pakistan and China
as "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger
than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight."

These two displays of deep affection, India with Iran and China with
Pakistan, may sound like true love, but they're the portent of things
to come, the coming Clash of Civilizations world war will pit India,
Iran and others versus China, Pakistan and others, in the bloodiest
and most destructive war in world history. Narendri Modi and Times of India and Pakistan Observer

****
**** Iran, India and the classic fables of Kalileh-wa-Dimneh, Jataka and Panchatantra
****

During Narendra Modi's speech, excerpted above, Modi said the
following:

[indent]<QUOTE>"India and Iran are two civilizations that celebrate
the meeting of our great cultures. The rare Persian manuscript
Kalileh-wa-Dimneh, released just now, captures the close
historical links between India and Iran. It is remarkable how the
simple stories of the Indian classics of Jataka and Panchatantra
became the Persian Kalileh-wa-Dimneh. It is a classic example of
exchange and travel of cultural ideas between two societies. ­A
beautiful demonstration of how our two cultures and countries
think alike. A true depiction of the wisdom of our ancient
civilizations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

I had never heard of these classics, but I checked out the
Kalileh-wa-Dimneh. I've only had time to skim through it, but it's a
fascinating collection of fables and stories that remind me of Aesop's
Fables. It would be well worth your time, Dear Reader, to take a look
for yourself. Kalileh-wa-Dimneh

****
**** The Caspian Corridor and the New Silk Road
****


The Caspian Trade Corridor is part of the New Silk Road connecting Asia with Europe

In ancient times the Silk Road, a complex road network, was the most
favored transport route between China and Europe. Today, there's a
great deal of renewed interest in developing a New Silk Road, new
trade routes between Asia and Europe. This article describes two such
trade routes, through the ports of Chabahar and Gwadar, respectively.

It's worth mentioning one additional trade route from Asia to Europe,
the Caspian Corridor, that I've written about before. ( "21-Jan-16 World View -- Azerbaijan forced to choose between Russia and Turkey"
)

The plan is to develop infrastructure within the Caspian Sea to
effectively connect Central Asia to the Caucasus region. Goods can
travel overland from India and China through Central Asia by truck and
railway, to a port on the Caspian Sea. From there, the goods are
ferried across the Caspian Sea to a port in Azerbaijan. From there,
they can travel overland again, through Georgia, Turkey, and then into
Europe, including Ukraine.

The Caspian Corridor is suitable for Pakistan and China, but not for
India, since it would require land transport across Pakistan, which
apparently has been forbidden. In fact, Pakistan and China have
effectively isolated India from Afghanistan and Central Asia. India
has been forced to use costly and impractical routes to reach the
heart of Asia and Asiatic Russia.

For that reason, the Chabahar port project is considered a "game
changer," and will make a significant difference for India and
Afghanistan. According to Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani: "A
hundred years from now historians will remember this day as the start
of regional cooperation. We wanted to prove that geography is not our
destiny. With our will we can change geography." Deccan Chronicle (India)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Iran, Pakistan, China, Chabahar, Gwadar,
Narendra Modi, Hassan Rouhani, Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani,
Battle of Karbala, Shias, Sunnis, Hindus, Masood Khan,
Kalileh-wa-Dimneh, Jataka, Panchatantra, Aesop,
Caspian Corridor, New Silk Road

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 26-May-16 World View -- China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China
  
• IMF balks at new European bailout plan for Greece
  

****
**** China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China
****


Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's new president (Reuters)

Just four days after Taiwan's new president Tsai Ing-wen took office,
she is already facing a major political crisis with China, after a
major election victory in January. ( "17-Jan-16 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election"
)

As I wrote in my January article, Taiwan-China relations are sure to
be tumultuous as soon as Tsai takes office, and that is happening very
quickly.

Since 2008, Taiwan has been governed by the pro-China Kuomintang (KMT)
party, which favors the "one China" principle and unification with
mainland China, and which has fully supported all of China's claims in
the South China Sea.

Tsai is the leader of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),
which in the past has favored Taiwan independence from China. When
the DPP was in power prior to 2008, relations between China and Taiwan
so bad that in 2005 Beijing passed an "anti-secession law" saying that
China would take military action against Taiwan if there were any
moves or speeches in the direction of Taiwan independence from China.

So in Tsai's inauguration speech five days ago, Tsai said that she
"respected" the "common understanding" between Taiwan and China, but
did not say what the common understanding was.

According to Beijing state media, Tsai made "a painful effort not to
answer one important question..., whether or not to acknowledge the
1992 Consensus embodying the one China principle."

According to Beijing:

[indent]<QUOTE>"The current developments across the Taiwan Straits
are becoming complex and grave. ...

Since 2008, the two sides of the Straits, acting on the common
political foundation of adhering to the 1992 Consensus and
opposing "Taiwan independence", have embarked on the path of
peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations. ...

The key to ensuring peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations
lies in adhering to the 1992 Consensus, which constitutes the
political basis of cross-Straits relations. The 1992 Consensus
explicitly sets out the fundamental nature of relations across the
Taiwan Straits. It states that both the Mainland and Taiwan belong
to one and the same China and that cross-Straits relations are not
state-to-state relations. The 1992 Consensus was reached with
explicit authorization of the two sides and has been affirmed by
leaders of both sides. It thus constitutes the cornerstone of
peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations.

We have noted that in her address today, the new leader of the
Taiwan authorities stated that the 1992 talks ... reached some
common understanding, and that she will handle affairs of
cross-Straits relations in keeping with the existing defining
document and related regulations and continue to advance the
peaceful and stable growth of cross-Straits relations on the basis
of the established political foundation.

However, she was ambiguous about the fundamental issue, the nature
of cross-Straits relations, an issue that is of utmost concern to
people on both sides of the Taiwan Straits. She did not explicitly
recognize the 1992 Consensus and its core implications, and made
no concrete proposal for ensuring the peaceful and stable growth
of cross-Straits relations. Hence, this is an incomplete test
answer.

A choice of different path leads to different future. This is a
choice between upholding the common political foundation that
embodies the one China principle and pursuing separatist
propositions of "Taiwan independence" such as "two Chinas" or "one
country on each side". This is a choice between staying on the
path of peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations and repeating
the past practice of provoking cross-Straits tension and
instability. And this is a choice between enhancing the affinity
and well-being of people on both sides and severing their blood
ties and undermining their fundamental interests. The Taiwan
authorities must give explicit answer with concrete actions to all
these major questions and face the test of history and the
people. ...

"Taiwan independence" remains the biggest menace to peace across
the Taiwan Straits and the peaceful growth of cross-Straits
relations. Pursuing "Taiwan independence" can in no way bring
peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits. The common will of
people on both sides of the Straits are not to be defied. Today,
we remain as determined as ever to uphold national sovereignty and
territorial integrity and have ever stronger ability to do so. We
will resolutely forestall any separatist moves and plots to pursue
"Taiwan independence" in any form."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Beijing is demanding that "Taiwan must clarify this issue with
practical action and allow the examination of the people and history."

Tsai won the January election overwhelmingly because the people of
Taiwan, especially the younger generations, increasingly identify as
"Taiwanese" rather than "Chinese." The KMT is a party of older
generations.

If Tsai complied with China's demands and unambiguously recognized the
1992 Consensus, there would probably be anti-Chinese "Sunflower
movement" riots in the streets, as there were frequently the last time
the DPP was in power, and those riots will probably overflow into Hong
Kong, where there could be a renewal of anti-Chinese "Umbrella
movement" riots.

So China's demands of Tsai are quite ominous, and the political
situation will be extremely volatile no matter what Tsai decides to
do. China Radio International's English Service and Xinhua

****
**** IMF balks at new European bailout plan for Greece
****

The eurozone finance ministers, meeting in Brussels, announced on
Wednesday morning that they had reached deal to provide a new bailout
to Greece, and also announced that the deal complies with the demands
by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for "debt relief" for Greece,
and that debt relief will be provided by 2018. The new 10.3 billion
euro bailout loan to Greece would allow Greece to make a July 1 debt
repayment and avoid bankruptcy. It's expected that, as in the past,
about one-third of the bailout loan would come from the IMF, which is
funded by the United States and other countries, and two-thirds would
come from eurozone institutions.

The IMF demand for "debt relief" alludes to the fact that Greece can
never pay off its debt. Readers who have been following this issue
for years and years can well remember crisis after crisis, with a
decision each time to "kick the can down the road" by granting Greece
a new bailout loan so that they could use it to avoid immediate
bankruptcy. (This technique is sometimes called "Using your Visa
credit card to pay your Master Card bill.")

However, the IMF announced that for this, the first 2016 crisis, they
would not simply kick the can down the road, but would demand debt
relief. Since most of Greece's 300 billion euro debt is owed to
European Union (eurozone) institutions, the eurozone has it within its
power to reduce Greece's debt so that Greece could one day be
debt-free.

The main opponent of debt relief has always been the Germans,
especially Germany's cranky finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble. So
the finance ministers reached a compromise on the debt relief issue,
"extending the repayment period and capping interest rates."

What does that mean? Details were not provided, but speculation was
that interest rates would be close to zero until 2050, and Greece
would not have to repay the debt in full until 2100. By that time
Wolfgang Schäuble would be dead, and indeed so would all the other
finance ministers.

So the finance ministers announced that they'd agreed on debt relief,
and had met the IMF's demands.

However, an IMF official disagreed, saying:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Greece is in a situation where it needs a
disbursement, and so we were certainly willing to concede on some
points. But we have not conceded on the point that we need
adequate assurances regarding debt relief before we go to our
board... I am hopeful we will get there. ...

We are not in the situation where the IMF can say that we're ready
to move ahead. But... given what we have got from the Europeans,
given what they committed to, I'm hopeful that we can get to that
point by the end of the year."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

By the end of the year? It looks like another crisis in the making.
Kathimerini and BBC and AFP


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen,
KMT, Kuomintang, DPP, Democratic Progressive Party,
Anti-Secession Law,
Greece, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-May-16 World View -- Increasingly hostile Iran-Saudi relations affect this year's Hajj

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• A disastrous year in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia
  
• Iran bans Iranians from attending the Hajj in 2016
  
• Far left anti-government riots spread across France
  

****
**** A disastrous year in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia
****


View of the streets of Mina where the stampede occurred during the Hajj in 2015 (AP)

Sectarian Sunni versus Shia relations in the Mideast have worsened
significantly in the last year, largely driven by Iran's support of
the Syria's genocidal Alawite president Bashar al-Assad, who for five
years has been conducting a war of extermination against his own Sunni
citizens.

The Hajj takes place each year in Mecca, in Saudi Arabia. It's
Islam's holiest event, commemorating rituals that date back to the
prophet Abraham, and then codified by the prophet Mohamed in the
Quran. Each Muslim is required to make a pilgrimage to the Hajj at
least once in his lifetime. Last year, about two million Muslims from
180 countries around the world arrived in Saudi Arabia for their once
in a lifetime Hajj pilgrimage. This year, the dates of the Hajj are
September 9-14.

The worst disaster to befall the Hajj in modern times occurred last
year when two large groups of pilgrims arrived together at a
crossroads in Mina, a few kilometers outside the holy city of Mecca.
Hundreds of thousands of pilgrims were walking towards the site of one
of the most important rituals, "stoning the devil," which requires
throwing seven stones at a pillar representing Satan in the city of
Mina. However, when two massive crowds converged on the same narrow
street, the people in front were forced to stop, while the ones
hundreds of meters to the rear kept on walking. All of this took
place under a burning hot sun, with a temperature of 46 degrees
centigrade (= 114 degrees fahrenheit). The result was that hundreds
of pilgrims suffocated or were trampled to death, including many
elderly people and children. ( "27-Sep-15 World View -- After Hajj stampede disaster, Muslims debate the 'Will of Allah'"
)

The stampede caused the death of at least 769 pilgrims, of which 464
were Iranians, according to the Saudis. There have been claims that
up to 2,200 pilgrims were killed in the stampede. From the beginning,
Iran called the stampede "a crime," and demanded that the Saudis be
prosecuted in international courts. The Saudis said that the stamped
was cause by Iranian pilgrims "not following instructions."

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran took a major step towards
increased hostility in January of this year, when Saudi Arabia
executed 47 alleged terrorists -- 46 Sunnis and one Shia, Mohammad
Baqir Nimr al-Nimr, infuriating Iran and Shias because it implied that
Shia terrorism is equivalent to Sunni terrorism. Iranian mobs
firebombed the Saudi embassy in Tehran, and attacked the consulate in
Meshaad. ( "18-Jan-16 World View -- Pakistan tries to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran"
)

After the firebombing of the Saudi embassy in Tehran, Saudi Arabia and
Iran broke diplomatic relations. Other Saudi allies followed suit.
In January, the Saudis halted trade and airline flights with Iran.

Then, at the beginning of April, the Saudis banned Iran's airline,
Mahan Air, from flying through Saudi airspace at all, or landing at
its airports, saying that Mahan was in violation of safety
regulations. This affected around 150 direct flights per month
between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The National (UAE, 5-Apr) and Al Bawaba (Palestine, 6-Apr) and Press TV (Tehran, 5-Apr)

****
**** Iran bans Iranians from attending the Hajj in 2016
****

With the 2016 Hajj approaching, Saudi Arabia and Iran have made the
Hajj an issue in the severe hostility existing between the two
countries. The issues are as follows:

• Since Iran burned down the Saudi embassy in Tehran, there's
  no place for an Iranian citizen to go to get a Saudi visa.
  
• Since the Saudis have banned Iran's Mahan Air from traveling
  to Saudi Arabia, there are no direct flights between the two
  countries.
  
• So the Saudis have proposed a workaround: Any Iranian citizen who
  wants to attend the Hajj can fly to the United Arab Emirates (UAE),
  get a Saudi visa in Dubai, and then fly from there to Mecca.
  
• Since hundreds of Iranians were killed in the stampede that
  occurred in last year's Hajj, and since Iran says that the Saudis are
  guilty of a criminal act, Iran is demanding that they control the
  security and transport of Iranian pilgrims to the Hajj.
  
• Iran is demanding that a way be found to grant Iranians visas
  inside Iran. Iran is asking that the Saudis issue visas through the
  Swiss embassy in Tehran.
  
• Iran is demanding that transport arrangements for Iranians be
  evenly split between Saudi and Iranian airlines.

Since the beginning of May, the Iranians and Saudis have been in
talks, attempting to find a way to resolve this issue. However, the
two countries are still at an impasse, and an Iranian official said
Iran was "very concerned over the security of Iranians during the holy
ceremony." Al Arabiya (12-May) and Al Jazeera and Leadership (Nigeria) and Al Monitor

****
**** Far left anti-government riots spread across France
****

Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets across France on
Thursday to protest the government's proposed labor reform bill. In
Paris, protests descended into violence, with protesters throwing
projectiles and police firing bouts of teargas. Across the country,
rioters blockaded roads and oil refineries, resulting in a shortage of
petrol.

France has the shortest legal working week in Europe, at 35 hours.
The 35 hour work week would be kept, but the new law would make it
easier for employers to lay people off. Layoffs are currently almost
impossible in France, but the reforms would allow companies whose
revenues have fallen for four consecutive quarters to lay people off.

France has a 10.5% unemployment rate, compared with 5.4% in the UK
and 4.8% in Germany. Most observers blame France's high unemployment
rate on the fact that employers are reluctant to hire anyone,
especially young people, since it's almost impossible to fire
them if they're incompetent.

According to reports, the far-left activists calling for the strikes
and riots feel betrayed because the labor reforms are being proposed
by France's Socialist president François Hollande who, they feel,
should completely support the far left.

As I wrote a few days ago,
we're
seeing in many countries complete rejection of established politicians
by young Millennials, and deep polarization as large segments of the
population move to the far left, while other segments move to far
right. This is what happened in the 1930s, leading to World War II,
and we can expect to see more riots and demonstrations on the far
right and the far left, as these countries go deeper into a
generational Crisis era. France 24 and BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Mecca, Hajj, Mina, Baqir Nimr al-Nimr, Manar Air,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Dubai, France, François Hollande

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 28-May-16 World View -- Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran and Hezbollah

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran and Hezbollah
  
• Iran and Hezbollah turn focus of hostility from Israel to Saudi Arabia
  
• Shifting Israeli alliances in the Mideast
  

****
**** Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran and Hezbollah
****


1938: English girls giving Nazi salute returning from a field trip to Germany - 'We had the time of our lives!' (Der Spiegel)

As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that
Iran, India and Russia will be allied with the West against China,
Pakistan, and the Sunni Arab nations in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war.

For the last few weeks, there have been increasingly widespread
reports in the media that Israel and Saudi Arabia have all but severed
ties with the United States, and are forming an independent military
alliance against Iran.

This development runs counter to a very powerful Generational Dynamics
trend prediction, and so it needs to be analyzed. Either the trend
prediction is wrong (which it isn't), or the Israel-Saudi alliance
must be relatively short-lived.

Several days ago, Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly
announced a significant change in policy, as he asked the Arab nations
to help in a "real deal" with the Palestinians:

[indent]<QUOTE>"The initiatives I’m referring to are regional
initiatives – meaning, aided by the Arab countries in the region
to reach a real deal with the Palestinians. We always thought it
would be the opposite, but that is the direction today. I am
constantly trying, including over the last few hours, to further
contacts with various leaders in the region to help in this
direction."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

A couple of days previously, Netanyahu responded to an offer by
Egypt's president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to mediate between Israel and
the Palestinians by saying, "Israel is ready to participate with Egypt
and other Arab states in advancing both the diplomatic process and
stability in the region. I appreciate President al-Sisi’s work and
also draw encouragement from his leadership on this important issue."
According to reports, the Arab countries include Saudi Arabia, the
Gulf states, Jordan and Egypt.

Netanyahu had previously rejected the help of Arab mediators in the
Palestinian issue, because they were insisting on the "right of
return," which would allow the descendants of Palestinians lost their
homes in the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs to reclaim their
grandparents' real estate. However, reports suggest that the Arab
nations are backing off from that demand.

The Palestinian issue is only the latest of the issues uniting the
Saudis, Egyptians and Israelis. As we've reported for years,
President Obama has managed to alienate all three countries and
offended their leaders. This has led to a shared sense of betrayal
and abandonment, especially after Obama's vigorous pursuit of a
nuclear deal with Iran, creating a widespread impression that he was
more interested in a good relationship with Iran than with them.

There have been signs that the rapprochement in Israel's relationship
with Egypt and Saudi Arabia have crossed over into the military
sphere.

Israel and Egypt signed a 1979 peace treaty that Egypt's Sinai
peninsula was a demilitarized zone. Yet Israel has approved Egypt's
requests to move additional troops into Sinai, near the border with
Israel. More recently, Israel raised no objections to Egypt's transferring two Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia,
even though the transfer affected Israel's security.

Israel and Saudi Arabia share the common interest and belief that the
biggest threat is Iran. Reports have surfaced in the past that the
Saudis gave Jerusalem approval for Air Force jets to pass through
their airspace if Israel decides to attack Iran's nuclear facilities.
This suggests that Israel and Saudi Arabia have military to military
contacts regarding Iran, and may be sharing intelligence or making
other plans. Breaking Israel News and Israel National News and Politico (EU) and Jerusalem Post (12-Apr)

****
**** Iran and Hezbollah turn focus of hostility from Israel to Saudi Arabia
****

According to recent reports, Israel has ordered Hezbollah to suspend
operations against Israel and to target Saudi Arabia instead.

Lebanon's Shia terrorist group Hezbollah and its leader Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah have been Iran's puppets for decades, and have had as their
main objective "resistance" to Israel, or the destruction of Israel.
Israel and Hezbollah fought a war in Lebanon in 2006, and Hezbollah
has supported Hamas and other Palestinian groups in conducting terror
operations against Israel and Israeli targets.

But the war in Syria has changed all that. Under orders from Iran,
Hezbollah sent thousands of its fighters into Syria to fight alongside
the army of the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The
targets have been anyone who opposes al-Assad, all the way from
peaceful protesters and children in school all the way to the jihadist
groups, so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) and the
al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front).

Last week, Nasrallah admitted for the first time that he had lost "a
large number" of his fighters in battles in Syria. Some reports give
a figure of 1,500 to 2,000, or one-third of his entire army.

The new orders from Iran were triggered by a number of devastating
Iranian and Hezbollah losses in Syria, including the assassination of
Hezbollah's top military commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine, who was
leading Hezbollah forces in Syria. ( "14-May-16 World View -- Syria's Aleppo campaign falters after disastrous Iranian loss at Khan Tuman"
)

The death of Badreddine was extremely significant, and statements by
Iran and Hezbollah make it clear that they blame his death on jihadist
forces funded and supported by Saudi Arabia.

As we reported yesterday, Iran has announced that it would not let its
citizens participate in the Hajj in Mecca on September 9-14. This is
Islam's holiest event, and non-participation by Iran is quite
significant. ( "27-May-16 World View -- Increasingly hostile Iran-Saudi relations affect this year's Hajj"
)

According to reports, Iran has instructed Hezbollah to initiate
actions against Saudi Arabia before the beginning of the Hajj in
September. Middle East Eye (17-May) and Middle East Eye and Reuters (20-May) and Al Arabiya (20-May)

****
**** Shifting Israeli alliances in the Mideast
****

I am asked frequently it's conceivably even POSSIBLE that Iran will be
an American ally in the coming world war, as I've been predicting for
ten years would happen, given the political situation of the last ten
years.

There are examples in World War II that serve as precedents. Russia
and Josef Stalin were our bitter enemies before the war, but we were
allies during the war. Britain and Nazi Germany were close before the
war, but were bitter enemies during the war. Before the war, Germany
and Russia signed a non-aggression pact, called the Molotov-Ribbentrop
Treaty, but Germany invaded Russia anyway.

A generational crisis war, like World War II, is very different from
an "ordinary" war because it's considered existential, a threat to the
very existence of a country and it's way of life. None of the wars
that America experience since the end of WW II -- Korean war, Vietnam
war, Iraq wars -- was anything like that. Non-crisis wars are based
on political decisions. You have Christmas truces in non-crisis wars.
Crisis wars are based visceral hatred, a desire to exterminate. There
are no Christmas truces.

So right now, Saudi Arabia and Israel are allied against Iran. But
this is a purely political alliance. There is no visceral hatred
among Israelis for Iranians, and there is no visceral hatred among
Iranians for Israelis. (See, for example, "9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement"
)

On the other hand, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran is
based on deeply visceral hatred. We see signs of this all the time,
such as the Iranian firebombing of the Saudi embassy in Tehran in
January, with apology forthcoming. Iran and Saudi Arabia will be
involved in an extremely bloody generational crisis war with absolute
certainty, and it appears that the time is approaching rapidly.

So what about Israel? There is little hatred between Israelis and
Iranians, but there's enormous hatred between Israelis and
Palestinians, particularly among younger generations. The prediction
that I first posted in May 2003 is still just as true today as it was
then: Jews and Arabs are headed for a new generational crisis war,
re-fighting the 1948-49 genocidal war between Jews and Arabs that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. (From 2003: "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?")

OK, so what about Egypt? Israel and Egypt have had a peace treaty for
over a quarter century. Will Israel be at war with Egypt?

To address that question, one first has to point out that Egypt is at
war with itself. Egypt's army is fighting ISIS and Bedouins in Sinai,
and there have been major riots targeting Coptic Christians in Egypt.

This example is a small illustration of a vastly larger problem in
analyzing generational trends in the Mideast -- that there are ethnic
fault lines that go beyond the easily predicted sectarian fault lines.
Especially with the rise of ISIS, al-Nusra and the Kurds, we can
already see signs of Sunnis fighting Sunnis in Syria, for example.

What's needed is a deep, thorough analysis of the trends among all the
ethnic groups in the Mideast. Remarkably, this would be a lot easier
today than it was even ten years ago, because today there's a huge
wealth of social media that can be looked at.

Analyzing that huge volume of social media is far more work than I'm
capable of accomplishing. But if some college student is looking for
a thesis topic in order to accomplish something really important and
develop valuable information on the future of the Mideast, then this
is it. Der Spiegel (13-Jun-2013) and World War II: The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Hezbollah, Iran, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad,
Mustafa Amine Badreddine, Russia, Josef Stalin, Nazi Germany,
Molotov-Ribbentrop Treaty

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 29-May-16 World View -- Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Economic collapse of Venezuela will devastate the entire Caribbean region
  
• Lufthansa suspends flights to Venezuela over non-payment
  
• Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise
  

****
**** Economic collapse of Venezuela will devastate the entire Caribbean region
****


Typical food supermarket in Venezuela

According to a statement by Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro
Moros, his predecessor "[Hugo] Chávez earned a place in heaven" by
subsidizing heating oil to 150,000 low-income American families, and
especially by the PetroCaribe program, which subsidizes oil for many
Caribbean and Central American companies. However, Venezuela's
Socialist economy spirals into collapse, all of these subsidy programs
are in jeopardy, and ending the programs could seriously destabilize
the region, as many countries are already in economic difficulties.

The PetroCaribe program began in 2005, at a time when Venezuela was
making huge amounts of money from selling oil. Under the program, a
Venezuela lends the country most of the cost of the oil under very
lenient terms -- 25 year loans with interest rates as low as 1%. In
addition, Venezuela accepts debt payments in kind. For the last 10
years, it has received payments in bananas, rice, jeans, medical
assistance and “intelligence” services (from Cuba). Estimates are
that this costs Venezuela $2-3 billion per year in lost income. This
was not a problem a few years ago, but with the economy collapsing, it
is today.

In a recent visit to Jamaica, Maduro insisted that Venezuela is still
committed to the PetroCaribe program:

[indent]<QUOTE>"We are fully convinced that in the last 10 years,
PetroCaribe has clearly demonstrated that it’s only together that
we can reach development and (achieve) happiness for our
peoples."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

If Maduro is correct that PetroCaribe is needed to achieve happiness
for Latin American peoples, then the logical conclusion is that there
will be a lot of unhappiness in Latin America if PetroCaribe ends.
That's exactly the conclusion of New York based Latin America analysts
LATAM PM.

Venezuela has almost $2 billion in debt due in October, $3 billion in
November and almost $4 billion in April 2017, making default almost
certain. According to LATAM PM:

[indent]<QUOTE>Inflation hit 180.9 per cent and the economy
contracted 5.7 per cent last year, according to central bank
figures. Contagion risks are significant: on one hand, regional
risk could spike, with Brazil and Ecuador already in a recession.

PetroCaribe ... is also in big danger. Between 2004 and 2008,
Venezuela experienced an economic miracle. Its economy grew ten
per cent on average every year, while GDP per capita expanded by
26 per cent. Now Venezuela is going backwards.

By 2018, the country will reach the GDP seen in 2005, but with a
population six million (20 per cent larger). GDP per capita will
fall to 2000 levels by 2018, as if 18 years had never occurred for
the economy."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Members of the PetroCaribe program include Antigua and Barbuda,
Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana,
Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the
Grenadines, Suriname, Haiti, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador.
Guatemala left the program in 2013. From the Caribbean, only the oil
producers Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados refused Venezuela’s offer.

The inevitable end of the PetroCaribe program will have significant
impact on most of these countries. The region spends around 15% of
its GDP on oil imports, and many of the countries have a strong
dependency on Venezuela's cheap oil. According to LATAM PM, "the
existence of PetroCaribe is a matter of time and this will bring
economic instability to Central America and the Caribbean." Jamaica Observer and Nation News (Barbados) and LATAM PM (29-Feb) and Economist (4-Oct-2014)

****
**** Lufthansa suspends flights to Venezuela over non-payment
****

As has been frequently reported, the citizens of Venezuela are
suffering one indignity after another, thanks to the approaching
collapse of Venezuela's Socialist economy. These indignities include
jailing of factory owners, and severe shortages of everything from
toilet paper to beer. ( "15-May-16 World View -- Venezuela economy close to collapse as Maduro orders jailing of factory owners"
)

On Saturday, the German airline Lufthansa announced that it is
suspending all flights to Venezuela as of June 18. The reason is that
many airline fares are paid in Venezuela's bolivar currency, which has
become practically worthless, with the highest inflation rate in the
world. Reuters

****
**** Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise
****

I was startled to hear analyst Yolanda Valery on the BBC describe the
unfolding some of the history of the tenure of Hugo Chávez, as he
worked to create his Socialist paradise.

In the mid-2000s decade, Venezuela was swimming in money. Starting in
2006-7, Chávez put a plan into action to turn Venezuela into a pure
Socialist state. The plan was as follows:

• Dismantle all the private businesses one by one
• Use
  the vast oil wealth to import everything that had previously been
  produced internally.
• Eventually dismantle all private
  businesses while importing everything.
• Finally, the
  government would own all businesses, and the government would produce
  everything

Nobody would think of awarding Chávez or any of his acolytes (Sean
Penn, Michael Moore, Oliver Stone, Jeremy Corbyn) any prizes for
anything but sheer stupidity, but this plan is about the dumbest thing
I've ever seen.

This reminds me of Mao Zedong's plan to create a Socialist Paradise in
China -- the Great Leap Forward of 1958-59.

500,000,000 peasants were taken out of their individual homes and put
into communes, creating a massive human work force. The workers were
organized along military lines of companies, battalions, and brigades.
Each person's activities were rigidly supervised. Mao's stipulated
purpose was to mobilize the entire population to transform China into
a socialist powerhouse -- producing both food and industrial goods --
much faster than might otherwise be possible. This would be both a
national triumph and an ideological triumph, proving to the world that
socialism could triumph over capitalism.

The Great Leap Forward was a disastrous failure, and tens of millions
of people died of starvation. BBC: Venezuela on the Brink (MP3 at 17:30)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros, Hugo Chávez,
PetroCaribe, Caribbean, LATAM PM, Lufthansa, Yolanda Valery,
China, Mao Zedong, Great Leap Forward

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-May-16 World View -- Decoration Day: Commemorating America's heroes and the Battle of Verdun

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Decoration Day
  
• Germany and France commemorate the centenary of the Battle of Verdun
  
• The Germany - France reconciliation - 1984
  
• Red poppies in Flanders Field
  
• Pacifism and the futility of war
  

****
**** Decoration Day
****


May 30, 1912: About 700 Civil War veterans marched in this parade on Decoration Day in Los Angeles (LA Times)

Decoration Day was officially designated on May 5th, 1868, by
President Ulysses Grant, to honor and decorate with flowers the graves
of fallen soldiers during the Civil War. It was officially proclaimed
on by General John Logan, national commander of the Grand Army of the
Republic, in his General Order No. 11:

[indent]<QUOTE>"The 30th of May, 1868, is designated for the purpose
of strewing with flowers, or otherwise decorating the graves of
comrades who died in defense of their country during the late
rebellion, and whose bodies now lie in almost every city, village
and hamlet churchyard in the land."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The date of Decoration Day, as he called it, was chosen because it
wasn’t the anniversary of any particular battle.

Following World War I, Decoration Day was changed to Memorial Day, to
honor Americans who died fighting in any war, not just the Civil War.
Memorial Day is different from Veterans Day, which honors living
veterans.

In 1971, Congress passed the National Holiday Act of 1971, making
Memorial Day the last Monday in May, and a federal holiday, ensuring a
three-day weekend. Almost every state now observes the holiday,
although some southern states have an additional separate day for
honoring the Confederate war dead: January 19th in Texas; April 26th
in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi; May 10th in South
Carolina; and June 3rd (Jefferson Davis’ birthday) in Louisiana and
Tennessee. Washington Post and US Memorial Day and
LA Times

****
**** Germany and France commemorate the centenary of the Battle of Verdun
****


Angela Merkel and François Hollande commemorate the Battle of Verdun on Sunday (AFP)

Verdun was the longest battle of World War I, a savage confrontation
lasting 10 months and leaving 800,000 German and French soldiers dead,
wounded or missing. The Germans fired two million shells in the
opening eight-hour bombardment, and tens of millions were fired over
the course of the conflict.

The Germans initially gained five miles of ground in the battle, but
over time the French regained the ground they had lost. Officially,
France was the victor, but they had nothing to show for their victory
but piles of dead bodies.

On Sunday, German chancellor Angela Merkel and France's president
François Hollande led a ceremony in the city of Verdun, to commemorate
the battle's 100th anniversary.

Both Merkel and Hollande related the battle to today's migrant and
Brexit crises, which are threatening to tear the European Union apart.
Merkel said:

[indent]<QUOTE>"The name Verdun stands for incomprehensible cruelty
and the futility of war as well as the lessons learnt and the
German-French reconciliation. ...

War is possible. We must remain vigilant to avoid it ... All
these dead are the victims of nationalism, of stubborn blindness
and the failings of politicians."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Hollande warned against "forces of division" in Europe, saying
"Disenchantment has given way to bitterness, doubt to suspicion and,
for some, rejection or even separation."

The ceremony was held at Douaumont Ossuary, which contains the bones
of 130,000 German and French soldiers. BBC and Irish Times

****
**** The Germany - France reconciliation - 1984
****


The iconic photo of Mitterrand and Kohl at Verdun in 1984

Although reconciliation between Germany and France was every European
leader's goal after World War II, the bitter war kept them separated.
By 1984, the people in the generations of Nazi and French leaders who
had fought the war were finally mostly gone, and reconciliation was
finally possible.

Above is the highly emotional photo of Helmut Kohl and François
Mitterrand standing hand-in-hand during a 1984 commemoration ceremony
at Verdun. It's an iconic photo illustrating reconciliation that took
place between their respective nations after two world wars.

This was the 68th anniversary of the Battle of Verdun. Kohl and
Mitterrand issued a joint statement:

[indent]<QUOTE>"France and Germany have learnt lessons from our
history. Europe is our common fatherland. We are heirs of a grand
European tradition. This is why, forty years ago, we ended our
fratricidal war and began to build our future together. We were
reconciled, we came to an agreement, we became friends. European
unification is our common goal – this is what we are working
towards – in the spirit of fraternity."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Today in History and International Herald Tribune (29-May-1966)

****
**** Red poppies in Flanders Field
****


Red poppies in Flanders Field (LaMa Arts)

Many people wear red poppies on Memorial Day, to commemorate the dead.
The tradition came about because of the following poem, written by a
Canadian soldier fighting in World War I:

[indent]<QUOTE>In Flanders Fields
By: Lieutenant Colonel John McCrae, MD (1872-1918)
Canadian Army

IN FLANDERS FIELDS the poppies blow
Between the crosses row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Lieutenant Colonel John McCrae died of pneumonia and meningitis in
Boulogne, France, on January 28th, 1918. The poppy is Canada's
official Flower of Remembrance. LaMa Arts and Flanders Fields Music

****
**** Pacifism and the futility of war
****

At Sunday's commemoration of the Battle of Verdun, German Chancellor
Angela Merkel said, "The name Verdun stands for incomprehensible
cruelty and the futility of war."

If any battle illustrates the futility of war, then the Battle of
Verdun does. The German attack won five miles of ground which the
French recovered in the weeks that followed. What was the point?

In fact, you could ask the same thing about all of World War I and
World War II. There have been some small boundary changes in Europe
in the last century, but hardly worth hundreds of millions of people
killed.

If the futility of war is so obvious, then why are there wars? Why
isn't everyone a pacifist?

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the answer is simple:
The world's population grows faster than the world's food supply.
That means that, eventually, some people will have to be exterminated
so that there'll be food for the rest. The same reasoning applies to
other resources.

A good example is the Mideast. The Israelis and the Palestinians have
some of the fastest growing populations in the world. Each year, more
and more people are jam-packed into Israel, Gaza and the West Bank.
And the Israelis and Palestinians hate each other. (Incidentally, the
Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank hate each other also, to a
lesser extent.) All these Israeli and Palestinian children are simply
cannon fodder for the next war. People who talk about "two nations,
Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and harmony" are
living in a total fantasy. This region is like a pressure cooker that
must some day explode.

If you believe in evolution, then this is easily explainable. The
strongest and fastest growing species is the one most likely to
survive, because it will get the most food and resources. If there's
no food left for the weaker species, then that species will quietly
become extinct. That's because animals are not intelligent. Humans
are intelligent, so they don't quietly become extinct. They conduct
riots, demonstrations, and terrorist attacks, and eventually wars of
extermination. So the strongest and fastest growing tribes, societies
or nations will win the wars, and get all the food

If you believe in creationism, then the explanation is different, but
also easily explainable. God has created a world in which the
population grows faster than the food supply, so wars of extermination
must occur. If wars of extermination must occur, because of God's
creation, then it's God's fault that wars of extermination occur. It
hardly makes sense to blame humans for wars of extermination if God
has created a world in which wars of extermination are required. So
the strongest and fastest growing tribes, societies or nations will
win the wars, and get all the food.

So was the Battle of Verdun an example of futility? No, absolutely
not. The Battle of Verdun killed off 800,000 people, and the food for
those 800,000 people became available to other people. With those
800,000 people dead, they didn't need food, didn't need water, didn't
need land, didn't need energy, and so forth. Those resources became
available to other people. So the Battle of Verdun did exactly what
it had to do, and except for those who experienced personal loss, it
improved the lives of millions of other people. And that, Dear
Reader, is the way the world works.

The world is bulging with people. Food is becoming more expensive,
and refugees are pouring out of Asia, the Mideast and Africa. These
are typical characteristics of a generational Crisis era.

Here are five events:

• Global financial panic and crisis
  
• General Mideast war
  
• War between Pakistan and India
  
• General civil war in China
  
• China military attack on Taiwan, Philippines,
  Vietnam, or U.S.

Sooner or later, one of these events (or something like them) will
occur, and in this generational Crisis era, that will trigger all the
others, and the Clash of Civilizations world war.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Civil War, Decoration Day, Memorial Day,
Ulysses Grant, John Logan, Grand Army of the Republic,
World War I, Battle of Verdun, Germany, Angela Merkel,
France, François Hollande, Verdun, Douaumont Ossuary,
Helmut Kohl, François Mitterrand, red poppies,
Flanders Fields, John McCrae

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

War solves problems such as unsuitable borders. Hitler complained often about the small piece of Polish terrain separating East Prussia from Pomerania and about the German minority in the Sudetenland being oppressed. After World War II, the Allies solved the problem of the Polish Corridor by taking East Prussia and almost the whole of Pomerania (and a slice of Brandenburg and almost all of Silesia) from Germany. The Allies signed off on the expulsion of Germans from the Sudetenland.

World War I at the least brought some countries into existence for anywhere from a year to twenty years... and all of those are now in existence. Except that Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia have split,  what had been part of Romania is no longer part of Romania, Germany has been truncated at the Oder-Neisse line,  a few swatches of Finland have been returned to Russia (through the Soviet Union) ,Poland has a squarish shape, the Russian Federated Soviet Socialist Republic has become the Russian Federation, the map of Europe now looks much like that of 1920 -- and not 1935 or 1950.

World War II brought forth the ugliest manifestations of racism to have ever have existed, racism that made Jim Crow and even Apartheid look humane by contrast. It also discredited racism, making possible the struggles against Jim Crow and Apartheid. The war in the Pacific Basin was mostly over colonial empires; after WWII few countries were able to fight to hold 'their' colonies.

Fascism (including Nazism and Ku Kluxism), which once touted itself as the Wave of the Future, has become a sick joke attracting mostly sociopaths with delusions of grandeur.

[radind]

(05-27-2016, 09:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 28-May-16 World View -- Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran and Hezbollah

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran and Hezbollah
  
• Iran and Hezbollah turn focus of hostility from Israel to Saudi Arabia
  
• Shifting Israeli alliances in the Mideast
  

****
**** Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran and Hezbollah
****

...As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that
Iran, India and Russia will be allied with the West against China,
Pakistan, and the Sunni Arab nations in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war.

For the last few weeks, there have been increasingly widespread
reports in the media that Israel and Saudi Arabia have all but severed
ties with the United States, and are forming an independent military
alliance against Iran.

This development runs counter to a very powerful Generational Dynamics
trend prediction, and so it needs to be analyzed.  Either the trend
prediction is wrong (which it isn't), or the Israel-Saudi alliance
must be relatively short-lived....


John J. Xenakis

I have considered Iran to be a threat for several decades. I don't see how we could ally with Iran without a fundamental change in the leaders of Iran. It would be good to have Iran, India and Russia as real allies, but so far this does not look feasible.

[Cynic Hero '86]

JohnX if Both Xers and Millennials hate Hillary and would never vote for her in any circumstances; How would Hillary become president? Similarly if the leaders Xers and Millies are backing have promised the dismantling of the Clinton policies and the Obama policies: How would the Clinton and Obama policies get implemented if they (the policies) are reversed as soon as the next president gets in there?

P.S #NeverHillary

[John J. Xenakis]

(05-30-2016, 04:32 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > JohnX if Both Xers and Millennials hate Hillary and would never
> vote for her in any circumstances; How would Hillary become
> president? Similarly if the leaders Xers and Millies are backing
> have promised the dismantling of the Clinton policies and the
> Obama policies: How would the Clinton and Obama policies get
> implemented if they (the policies) are reversed as soon as the
> next president gets in there? P.S #NeverHillary

This is not exactly my area of expertise, but I understand that
Democrats are hoping that Hillary will win because of overwhelming
support from women and Latinos. Trump supporters respond that he'll
win because he has more support from men and whites.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 31-May-16 World View -- Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of refugees leave Libya for Italy, hundreds drown
  
• Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control
  
• Population growth rate of Muslims and Christians
  

****
**** Thousands of refugees leave Libya for Italy, hundreds drown
****


Boat carrying hundreds of migrants capsized on Thursday as an Italian Navy rescue ship approached (Getty)

Human rights are describing as "catastrophic" the situation that
700-900 migrants drowned in the last week, attempting to cross the
Mediterranean Sea from Libya to Italy.

However, some 13,000 to 14,000 were rescued in the last week. These
numbers are similar to those from 2015. The numbers are expected to
increase over the summer, as there are some 800,000 migrants in Libya
waiting to cross. Almost all the migrants are coming from black
African countries, including Nigeria, Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan.

Earlier predictions that there would be a flood of refugees from
Syria, since the Aegean Sea route has been closed by the EU-Turkey
refugee deal, have not been realized so far. The Libya route is many
times more dangerous than the Aegean Sea route, and it's possible that
many Syrian refugees are waiting to see if the EU-Turkey deal will
fall apart, which could very well happen soon. The Local (Italy) and Eagle Online (Nigeria) and Express (London)

****
**** Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control
****

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has once again expressed his
support for procreation, saying that no Muslim family should ever
consider birth control or population planning.

[indent]<QUOTE>"We will multiply our descendants. They talk about
population planning, birth control. No Muslim family can have such
an approach. Nobody can interfere in God's work. The first duty
here belongs to mothers. ...

I am saying this clearly, we will increase our posterity and
reproduce generations. As for population planning or birth
control, no Muslim family can engage in such a mentality. We will
follow the road that my God and dear Prophet [Muhammad]
say."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Erdogan has previously been quoted as saying: "One or two children
mean bankruptcy. Three children mean we are not improving but not
receding either. At least three children are necessary in each family,
because our population is at risk of aging." He has previously
equated birth control with treason.

Erdogan's remarks were heavily criticized by women's groups for
telling women how many children to have and dismissing the Western
idea of gender equality. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Gulf Times (Doha)

****
**** Population growth rate of Muslims and Christians
****

Ever since I learned, years ago, that Muslims had the greatest birth
rate of all religions, then I've been trying to find out why.

According to Pew Research, this trend will continue for decades into
the future. According to Pew, from 2010-2050 population size is
expected to increase 73% for Muslims, 35% for Christians, 34% for
Hindus, and 16% for Jews, with the overall growth rate of 35%.

However, those figures assume that there won't be a new world war. As
we described yesterday,
the world
is already bulging with people, food is becoming more expensive, and
refugees are pouring out of Asia, the Mideast and Africa. This
becomes more unstable every day, as does global finance, with huge
interlocking debts in a giant credit bubble.

However, Muslims have been the fastest growing religion since the end
of World War II. Furthermore, when I researched this in the past, I
noticed that this applied to Sunni Muslim countries to but not to
Iran, a Shia Muslim country. So I reached the obvious conclusion that
this phenomenon applies not to Muslims in general, but only to Sunni
Muslims.

My theory has always been that after the devastating destruction of
Turkey's Ottoman Empire, which had ruled the Muslim world since the
1400s, Sunni Muslims developed either explicit or implicit communal
sense that the way to get the Ottoman Empire back was to have as many
children as possible.

I've asked any number of Muslims and Muslim scholars whether this
theory makes sense, whether there was some kind of fatwa issued by
some cleric in the 1920s or 1930s, telling Muslims to have as many
children as possible to recover from the destruction of the Ottoman
Empire. No one I spoke to supported this theory, and many explicitly
denied it, although were also surprised to learn the statistics that
Sunni Muslim populations have been the fastest growing populations,
something of which they had been unaware.

There is no prohibition against contraception in Islam. Abortion and
hysterectomies are prohibited, but ordinary contraceptive methods are
acceptable, including the IUD and the pill. In fact, the Catholic
religion is far more restrictive about contraception than Islam is.
So Erdogan's claims about birth control appear to be exaggerated.

But here we have Turkey's super-authoritarian president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, who gives every sign of wanting to reconstitute the old
Ottoman Empire, saying that women should avoid contraception, have as
many children as possible, "multiply our descendants."

So I'm sticking to my theory. The reason for the high birth rate
among Sunni Muslims after World War II is because of of an explicit or
implicit communal sense that the way to get the Ottoman Empire back
was to have as many children as possible.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Erdogan's exhortation
is just one more crazy idea, of which there are many, from just one
more crazy politician, of which there are many. The Mideast is headed
for a massive sectarian war, and Turkey will be at war with Iran,
Russia and several Western countries, at the very least. As I wrote yesterday,
those wonderful
children will all be cannon fodder, and archeologists of the future
will enjoy digging up their bones from mass graves. Pew Research and Islamic Edicts on Family Planning


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Mediterranean Sea, Italy,
Aegean Sea, Nigeria, Eritrea, Sudan,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ottoman Empire, Iran, Russia

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

(05-30-2016, 03:41 PM)radind Wrote:

(05-27-2016, 09:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 28-May-16 World View -- Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran and Hezbollah

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran and Hezbollah
  
• Iran and Hezbollah turn focus of hostility from Israel to Saudi Arabia
  
• Shifting Israeli alliances in the Mideast
  

****
**** Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran and Hezbollah
****

...As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that
Iran, India and Russia will be allied with the West against China,
Pakistan, and the Sunni Arab nations in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war.

For the last few weeks, there have been increasingly widespread
reports in the media that Israel and Saudi Arabia have all but severed
ties with the United States, and are forming an independent military
alliance against Iran.

This development runs counter to a very powerful Generational Dynamics
trend prediction, and so it needs to be analyzed.  Either the trend
prediction is wrong (which it isn't), or the Israel-Saudi alliance
must be relatively short-lived....


John J. Xenakis

I have considered Iran to be a threat for several decades. I don't see how we could ally with Iran without a fundamental change in the leaders of Iran. It would be good to have Iran, India and Russia as real allies, but so far this does not look feasible.

An Alliance with Russia is actually quite doable even though at the moment we are seemingly on the brink of war. Let's say if Trump gets elected an negotiates a spheres of influence agreement that gives Russia de-facto control over Ukraine and orthodox eastern Europe and military support against China. Such a pact is quite doable. But this is not what JohnX is predicting. JohnX seems to predict that Russia and India would just get a liberal "velvet revolutions" and then sometime later gets attacked by China (which also attacks the US at the same time) and that Liberal college students students take complete power and turn Iran into a clone of Iraqi Kurdistan. After which all the countries would have stereotypical liberal democracies and would be allied with the US (which would be ruled by the same establishment that runs thing here right now, he assumes Hillary will be elected) to fight and defeat china, after which every country in the world would be a democracy and be directed by boomers into creating a world government.  In regards to his Iran prediction John reveals his complete hypocrisy. He wants Iranian 20 and 30 somethings to have control over Iran's government, Military, Economy And foreign policy; but he does not want American 20 and thirty somethings to have any control whatsoever over the US Government, Military, Economy and Foreign policy. In fact he seems to prefer that the boomers ( and he means the current boomer elite, not "anti-mainstream" boomers like trump) to have complete power throughout the entire crisis and into the early 1T and then the boomer elites cede power directly to the cohorts that are currently in high school, middle school and college right now. Thus skipping over generation X and the first 2/3rds of the millennials altogether. This is simply so the boomers could build their world government utopia enshrined by "human-rights" in the aftermath of what he predicts a 4T WW3 in which hopes all western countries would be led by boomers and by conducted like a scaled-up version of the GWOT (fought with nukes and armies of millions instead of drone high-explosives and armies of thousands) in which our war aim is democratizing the entire planet.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(05-30-2016, 07:35 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(05-30-2016, 04:32 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   JohnX if Both Xers and Millennials hate Hillary and would never
>   vote for her in any circumstances; How would Hillary become
>   president? Similarly if the leaders Xers and Millies are backing
>   have promised the dismantling of the Clinton policies and the
>   Obama policies: How would the Clinton and Obama policies get
>   implemented if they (the policies) are reversed as soon as the
>   next president gets in there?  P.S #NeverHillary

This is not exactly my area of expertise, but I understand that
Democrats are hoping that Hillary will win because of overwhelming
support from women and Latinos.  Trump supporters respond that he'll
win because he has more support from men and whites.

Citizen Latinos and White Women (and young women of all races in general) generally like Trump.

[John J. Xenakis]

(05-30-2016, 07:45 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > An Alliance with Russia is actually quite doable even though at
> the moment we are seemingly on the brink of war. Let's say if
> Trump gets elected an negotiates a spheres of influence agreement
> that gives Russia de-facto control over Ukraine and orthodox
> eastern Europe and military support against China. Such a pact is
> quite doable. But this is not what JohnX is predicting. JohnX
> seems to predict that Russia and India would just get a liberal
> "velvet revolutions" and then sometime later gets attacked by
> China (which also attacks the US at the same time) and that
> Liberal college students students take complete power and turn
> Iran into a clone of Iraqi Kurdistan. After which all the
> countries would have stereotypical liberal democracies and would
> be allied with the US (which would be ruled by the same
> establishment that runs thing here right now, he assumes Hillary
> will be elected) to fight and defeat china, after which every
> country in the world would be a democracy and be directed by
> boomers into creating a world government. In regards to his Iran
> prediction John reveals his complete hypocrisy. He wants Iranian
> 20 and 30 somethings to have control over Iran's government,
> Military, Economy And foreign policy; but he does not want
> American 20 and thirty somethings to have any control whatsoever
> over the US Government, Military, Economy and Foreign policy. In
> fact he seems to prefer that the boomers ( and he means the
> current boomer elite, not "anti-mainstream" boomers like trump) to
> have complete power throughout the entire crisis and into the
> early 1T and then the boomer elites cede power directly to the
> cohorts that are currently in high school, middle school and
> college right now. Thus skipping over generation X and the first
> 2/3rds of the millennials altogether. This is simply so the
> boomers could build their world government utopia enshrined by
> "human-rights" in the aftermath of what he predicts a 4T WW3 in
> which hopes all western countries would be led by boomers and by
> conducted like a scaled-up version of the GWOT in which our war
> aim is democratizing the entire planet.

This is total gibberish.

[pbrower2a]

(05-30-2016, 07:45 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote:

(05-30-2016, 03:41 PM)radind Wrote: I have considered Iran to be a threat for several decades. I don't see how we could ally with Iran without a fundamental change in the leaders of Iran. It would be good to have Iran, India and Russia as real allies, but so far this does not look feasible.

An Alliance with Russia is actually quite doable even though at the moment we are seemingly on the brink of war. Let's say if Trump gets elected an negotiates a spheres of influence agreement that gives Russia de-facto control over Ukraine and orthodox eastern Europe and military support against China. Such a pact is quite doable. But this is not what JohnX is predicting. JohnX seems to predict that Russia and India would just get a liberal "velvet revolutions" and then sometime later gets attacked by China (which also attacks the US at the same time) and that Liberal college students students take complete power and turn Iran into a clone of Iraqi Kurdistan. After which all the countries would have stereotypical liberal democracies and would be allied with the US (which would be ruled by the same establishment that runs thing here right now, he assumes Hillary will be elected) to fight and defeat china, after which every country in the world would be a democracy and be directed by boomers into creating a world government.  In regards to his Iran prediction John reveals his complete hypocrisy. He wants Iranian 20 and 30 somethings to have control over Iran's government, Military, Economy And foreign policy; but he does not want American 20 and thirty somethings to have any control whatsoever over the US Government, Military, Economy and Foreign policy. In fact he seems to prefer that the boomers ( and he means the current boomer elite, not "anti-mainstream" boomers like trump) to have complete power throughout the entire crisis and into the early 1T and then the boomer elites cede power directly to the cohorts that are currently in high school, middle school and college right now. Thus skipping over generation X and the first 2/3rds of the millennials altogether. This is simply so the boomers could build their world government utopia enshrined by "human-rights" in the aftermath of what he predicts a 4T WW3 in which hopes all western countries would be led by boomers and by conducted like a scaled-up version of the GWOT (fought with nukes and armies of millions instead of drone high-explosives and armies of thousands) in which our war aim is democratizing the entire planet.

1. Balderdash! Donald Trump must be elected. Erratic as he is, he will make Hillary Clinton look like a steady hand. Steady hands, or the perception of such, win against alternatives in America and I see no cause to expect otherwise this year. A Third Term in all but personality and name can be elected. Hillary Clinton has even more preparation for the Presidency than did Barack Obama in 2008.

People are coming to realize what a good President we now have. Clinton 2016 is at least George H W Bush 1988.

2. Sphere of influence? Who would want to be in the sphere of interest of any power being led despotically. I see Donald Trump no less authoritarian than Vladimir Putin. NATO would break up, with most NATO members choosing their own alliance. The difference between governments of the Netherlands and Bulgaria would be on whether Putin or Trump poses the bigger security threat to independence. Decisions to establish spheres of influence imply the loss of independence of countries to be absorbed into such spheres of influence.

3. India is already a democracy. Russia has had some experience with democracy and could have it again. China, in contrast, has practically no experience with democracy; overtures of democracy in China since 1911 have typically been traps set up by the dictatorial leadership to seek out dissidents to be crushed brutally.

4. The Kurdish quasi-state at the least wages war like a democracy. It accepts ethnic and religious difference while honoring the values of the majority. They have been closing in on the Infernal State. But the Kurds are not Arabs, and they are not Iranians.

5. China is not going to be defeated in war. If Japan could not defeat China decisively from 1937 to 1941 despite being on par with the United States in the Pacific Rim, do you think that America, Russia, or Indian can? China is even more powerful now than it was in the mid-20th century. It can do what America did in the early 1940s -- turning a machine of production of consumer goods into the production of military goods.

6. Boomer power as if the Boom generation is a monolithic behemoth in support of its economic elites is a myth. Read the generational books, and you will find that the last set of Idealist leadership establishes the legacy of that generation. The last set of Boomer leadership will not be people who believe that Humanity exists solely to enrich and pamper elites irrespective of the hopes and desires of the rest of Humanity. Imagine Boomers not as selfish, ruthless, and arrogant as the current elite  who have more of a focus on culture, principle, and workable beliefs. Those Boomers can have an appeal to X pragmatism and Millennial reason.

7. People in their 30s are typically on the brink of achieving influence in public life, especially as older adults die, retire, or get discredited. There will be plenty of openings for Millennial adults in politics as the Silent and early-wave Boomers die off. Rational as they are, Millennial adults are going to challenge the Tea Party types whose rationality and pragmatism are suspect. But don't forget that the best of a Reactive generation in public office might well be those associated with minorities making advances in economic life. Asian-Americans seem to be following the Jewish pattern of economic and intellectual success. Hispanics are doing far better than some white groups (especially those in the Mountain South) in educational and economic achievement -- completing their education and starting businesses. Middle-class blacks are legitimate peers of middle-class whites in everything but social organization -- and in that difference, middle-class blacks are far -better organized than the white middle class and are more effective at appealing to poor blacks than middle-class whties are in appealing to poor whites. Just consider this: the first non-white President is a black man of Generation X.

8. How stable is the Iranian theocracy? It is corrupt and politically isolated. People are finding ways to evade its power. Even the burka, long figured a tool of suppression of women, has become a canvas of expression.  There are designer burkas. People are finding ways to dissent without naming quite the current leadership. The Iranians aren't stupid. They know enough that they can replace "The Shah", "The Great Satan", or "The Zionist Entity" with their current tyranny and make sense of their own reality.

9. The worst Boomers are likely approaching the end of the road in power.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(05-31-2016, 10:42 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Usually I am somewhere between sympathetic to neutral regarding refugees. But really .... "hey here comes a ship, lets all run to that side of the boat!"

Darwin award?

Xers and Millies WILL NOT fight for boomer values. They are not going to allow boomers to forcibly domesticate humanity. I Saw an interesting series of posts in while skimming through comments in response to an article on the recent Austrian elections.

Here are the posts: the third poster in my opinion sums up the attitude of Xers and Millies toward boomer globalism.

haribol 
24 May 2016 6:12
1415
Trump in America. Putin in Russia. The far-right in ascendency in Europe. Nationalistic zealots in China. Globally this points to one thing. A massive war (trade or literal).

Report

• 
  Cassle  haribol 
  24 May 2016 8:08
  23
  Yes... I fear you are right! Given that we have been here before (after 1929) it is terrifying that no government seems to have a credible alternative plan. For example, couldn't we just have some massive multi-government investment programmes, without having to wait for the killing to start?
  Report
  
  
• 
  FriendlyManatee  haribol 
  24 May 2016 8:09
  78
  The idea that the working class will be queuing up to lay down their lives to defend the property portfolios of neoliberals/bourgeois left is ridiculous - the next wars will be civil wars.
  

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-Jun-16 World View -- 50,000 civilians in danger as Iraq tries to liberate Fallujah from ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Death of Afghan Taliban leader exposes Iran-Taliban links
  
• 50,000 civilians in danger as Iraq tries to liberate Fallujah from ISIS
  

****
**** Death of Afghan Taliban leader exposes Iran-Taliban links
****


Wreckage of vehicle in which Mansour was traveling when hit by US drone strike (Anadolu)

As we reported earlier this month,

Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour was killed by a
US drone strike as he was traveling by car in Pakistan's Balochistan
province, not far from the border with Iran.

It now turns out that Mansour's car was returning from a trip to Iran.
Iran's foreign ministry has said, "The concerned authorities in Iran
reject that such a person had entered Pakistan via Iran’s border at
the stated date," but Western reporters arriving at the site of the
drone strike have seen Mansour's Pakistani passport, with entry and
exit stamps showing that he had traveled into Iran and back again that
day.

It's not known where or why Mansour went inside Iran. It's not known
whether he had some secret relationship with Iran's government, or
whether he was just visiting Taliban cells within Iran, without Iran's
knowledge.

However, this discovery has generated some examination of Iran's
relationship with the Taliban. Iran is a hardline Shia state, and the
Taliban is a hardline Sunni organization, so their relationship could
never be more than a "marriage of convenience" that could be dissolved
by either side at any time.

Iran had staunchly opposed the Taliban in the 1990s and had almost
gone to war with it after Taliban forces massacred Iranian diplomats
and local Shia Muslims in the Afghan city of Mazar-e Sharif in 1998.
Since 9/11, there has been some cooperation between Iran and the
Taliban over the US presence in Afghanistan.

Since 2014, when the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) began to infiltrate Afghanistan, Iran and the Taliban have
shared a common interest in wanting to repel ISIS.

There are still plenty of unanswered questions about the drone strike
that killed Mansour. Mansour's whereabouts were a closely guarded
secret, and yet US intelligence officials were apparently absolutely
certain, at the time of the drone strike, that they knew what car he
was traveling in. How did they know?

James Cunningham, a former US ambassador to Afghanistan says:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Pick your conspiracy theory. How did his passport
survive? Did [ISIS] shop him to the US? Did the Iranians tip us
off? We likely will never know. But the Taliban must be wondering,
too.

What needs to be debunked is the Pakistani line that Afghanistan
is the fault of the United States and the international community,
and that the killing [of Mansour] blocks the [Afghan-Taliban]
peace process. "There is no peace process; Mansour made clear
there was no intent to negotiate."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Guardian (London) and VOA and Al Monitor

****
**** 50,000 civilians in danger as Iraq tries to liberate Fallujah from ISIS
****

American Marines endured some of the bloodiest fighting of the Iraq
War in Fallujah in 2003-2004, fighting against Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).
After the "surge" in 2007, AQI was expelled from Iraq, including
Fallujah, but the withdrawal of all American forces in 2011 created a
vacuum that was filled by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh). ISIS captured large swaths of Iraqi territory,
including Fallujah in 2014, and now there's a new battle of Fallujah,
fought mainly by ISIS against Iraqi army forces, the latter backed by
US airstrikes.

Baghdad has been hit by a seemingly unending stream of terrorist
attacks and bombings that have killed hundreds of civilians in recent
months. Fallujah if 40 miles west of Baghdad, and ISIS has been using
it as a base to launch these attacks. The Iraq government sees the
recapture of Fallujah as keep to stopping these attacks and stopping
ISIS itself.

For more than a week, Iraqi forces have been surrounding Fallujah and
preparing for troops to enter the city, and now the battle was finally
launched on Tuesday. The ISIS forces have no way to escape, and so
the fighting is fierce.

It's feared that a massive humanitarian disaster is in the making.
The problem is that there are also 50,000 civilians in the city, and
many have no way to escape either, though they've been advised to
flee. ISIS forces have booby trapped many of the roads and buildings
and they're using civilians as "human shields," hoping to slow down
the Iraqi forces.

Iraq is increasingly facing a huge internal refugee problem, with
hundreds of thousands of Iraqis forced to flee their homes in one
battle after another. If the Iraq army ever attempts to liberate
Mosul from ISIS, that will put its 600,000 civilians at risk.

There is a related issue that's growing in complexity. Since the
invasion by ISIS, many of the internally displaced Iraqi civilians
have fled to the relative safety and security of the Kurdistan Region
of Iraq (KRI). The KRI is supposed to hold a reference on
independence later this year, something that the Iraq government
opposes, and it's possible that the Iraq government is not unhappy
that a huge influx of Iraqi Arab refugees will complicate the
referendum. Rudaw (Iraq/Kurds) and USA Today and VOA and Chatham House (London)



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour,
Pakistan, Balochistan, Iran, James Cunningham,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Iraq, Fallujah, al-Qaeda in Iraq, AQI, Kurdistan Region of Iraq, KRI

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Jun-16 World View -- New Taiwan poll shows overwhelming support for independence from China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• New Taiwan poll shows overwhelming support for independence from China
  
• China close to imposing an air defense ID zone (ADIZ) in South China Sea
  

****
**** New Taiwan poll shows overwhelming support for independence from China
****


From 2005: Taiwan poll results to question: 'Do you feel Taiwanese, Chinese or both?' (WSJ)

A new poll in Taiwan shows that an overwhelming majority of Taiwanese
people reject eventual unification with China. This comes a week
after Tsai Ing-wen, the leader of the Taiwan's pro-independence
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), took office as president of
Taiwan, having won an overwhelming and decisive electoral victory in
January. ( "17-Jan-16 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election"
)

According to the new poll, 66.4% oppose unification and only 18.5% are
in favor, while 15.1% remain noncommittal. The poll found that people
in younger generations were more likely to favor Taiwan independence.
In the 20-29 age group, 72% supported independence.

This is consistent with a trend I've reported on in the past. The
graph at the beginning of this article comes from 2005, and it shows
that the portion of Taiwan's population describing themselves as
"Taiwanese," as opposed to "Chinese," had risen from 18% to 42% over
the previous ten years. If we assume that being "Taiwanese"
corresponds to favoring Taiwan independence, then that amount has
risen from 42% to 66.4% in the 11 years since then.

This almost certainly means that the trend is highly generational.
Older generations, especially those with some memory of the 1949
flight from Mao Zedong's army to Hong Kong and then to Formosa, have
clung to the hope that one day Taiwan and Beijing would reunite into a
single China governed by Taiwan's Nationalist government. People in
younger generations understand that this scenario is even remotely
possible, and that reunification would mean being governed by the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing, the same CCP that massacred
thousands of college students in Tiananmen Square in 1989, and who
have become increasingly authoritarian in Hong Kong, breaking their
explicit public promise, when Britain returned Hong Kong to China in
1997, that they could have fully free and fair elections.

If I could figure all this out, then it's certain that the officials
in the CCP have also figured it out. Just last week, just after Tsai
Ing-wen took office as president, Chinese media demanded that Tsai explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China,
something that Tsai is refusing to do.

In 2005, during the time when Taiwan's pro-independence Democratic
Progressive Party was last in power, Beijing enacted an Anti-Secession law
that required Beijing to
invade Taiwan militarily if Taiwan took any steps to move towards
independence, or even encourage independence in political speech.
China is becoming increasingly nationalistic, and increasingly less
willing to tolerate Taiwan's independent streak. The new poll shows
that time is not on Beijing's side, and at some point, possibly soon,
the military invasion of Taiwan will take place. Taipei Times

****
**** China close to imposing an air defense ID zone (ADIZ) in South China Sea
****

The Hong Kong based South China Morning Post is quoting China's
military sources as saying that China is close to announcing an air
defense identification zone (ADIZ) in South China Sea, "pending US
moves."

An official is quoted as saying:

[indent]<QUOTE>"If the US military keeps making provocative moves to
challenge China’s sovereignty in the region, it will give Beijing
a good opportunity to declare an ADIZ in the South China
Sea."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The "provocative moves" are an allusion to the US Navy's completely
non-threatening freedom of navigation patrols, in which US patrol
vessels simply sail through the South China Sea. China has announced
that it is annexing the entire South China Sea, including regions that
have historically belonged to other countries, much as Adolf Hitler
annexed portions of eastern Europe in 1939, and is demanding that any
American patrol vessel request permission from China before entering
the South China Sea. However, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter has repeatedly said
that "The
United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law
allows, as we do all around the world."

The announcement of an ADIZ would substantially escalate the tensions
in the region. China has already been aggressively militarizing the
South China Sea in preparation for the ADIZ. This includes creation
of seven artificial islands and turning them into military naval and
air force bases.

Just as China is preparing for war with Taiwan, China is also
preparing for war in the South China Sea. The increasingly
nationalistic Chinese people will not wait much longer before
demanding that their leaders attack. South China Morning Post and India Times and The Diplomat


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen,
DPP, Democratic Progressive Party, Anti-Secession Law,
Hong Kong, South China Sea, Air Defense Identification Zone, ADIZ

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Jun-16 World View -- Turkey recalls German ambassador after vote recognizes Armenian genocide

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey recalls German ambassador after vote recognizes Armenian genocide
  
• Germany's genocide vote seems timed to coincide with EU-Turkey refugee deal
  

****
**** Turkey recalls German ambassador after vote recognizes Armenian genocide
****


Armenian settlements in eastern Turkey in 1915 (AFP)

In a move considered highly controversial because of its timing,
Germany's parliament voted on Thursday to recognize the deaths of
Armenians in 1915 during World War I at the hands of Turkey's Ottoman
Empire as an act of "genocide." However, the vote was purely
symbolic, as there are no legal consequences associated with the vote.

For Germans, one possible motivation for the vote is that Germany and
the Ottomans were allies in World War I, and Germany may share some of
the guilt for the deaths of the Armenians. The resolution emphasizes
that Germany is aware of the "uniqueness" of the Nazi Holocaust and it
"regrets the inglorious role" of Germany, the Ottoman Turks' main
military ally at the time of the Armenians' killings, of failing to
stop the "crime against humanity."

Armenia's foreign minister to Germany Edward Nalbandian praised the
decision:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Germany's valuable contribution not only to the
international recognition and condemnation of the Armenian
Genocide, but also to the universal fight for the prevention of
genocides, crimes against humanity."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The vote was overwhelming, with only one MP voting against, and only
one abstention. Bettina Kula, who voted against the resolution, did
not dispute the claim of genocide, but said that "It’s not the duty of
the Federal Parliament to evaluate historical events that took place
in other countries."

Members of Turkey's government were furious at the vote, and declared
it "null and void." Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan was on a
visit to Kenya, where he condemned the vote and announced that he was
recalling Turkey's ambassador to Germany "for consultation." This was
considered a mild action, one that's easily reversed. Last year,
Turkey temporarily recalled its ambassadors to Austria and the Vatican
after Austria and Pope Francis described the killings as genocide.

According to the Turkey's deputy prime minister Numan Kurtulmus:

[indent]<QUOTE>"The fact that the German Parliament approved
distorted and baseless claims as genocide is a historic
mistake. The German Parliament’s approval of this bill is not a
decision in line with friendly relations between Turkey and
Germany. This decision is null and void for Turkey.

This is an issue that scientists and historians need to reach a
conclusion on, not politicians or parliaments. As Turkey, we will
surely give the necessary response to this decision in all
platforms."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Most analysts outside of Turkey consider the evidence of genocide
overwhelming.

Armenia says that as many as 1.5 million people were killed by Turkish
forces in World War I between 1915 and 1917, and says that the mass
killings were genocidal. According to Turkey, something like 500,000
Armenians and 500,000 Turks were killed in the massive civil war that
occurred when the Armenians rose up against the Ottoman rulers, and so
it wasn't a genocide. However, in February 1919, a court-martial
found a number of top Ottoman officials guilty of war crimes,
including against Armenians, and sentenced them to death. Deutsche Welle (Berlin) and Hurriyet (Ankara) and AFP

****
**** Germany's genocide vote seems timed to coincide with EU-Turkey refugee deal
****

The Armenian genocide question is a century-old issue, so it seems
surprising that the German parliament is raising the issue at exactly
this time, at the height of the negotiations over the EU-Turkey
refugee deal.

The European Union desperately needs the deal to continue. Last year,
there were thousands of Syrian refugees crossing the Aegean Sea every
day to Greece's islands, creating an existential crisis for the EU.
Thanks to the deal, Turkey has reduced that flow from thousands per
day to dozens per day. This has permitted the EU to go its merry way
without being threatened with the tsunami of refugees.

However, the EU has obligations under that treaty. The EU is
obligated to pay Turkey 3 billion euros in aid for refugees, followed
possibly by 3 billion more. None of that money has been paid, and is
way overdue.

Possible most critical is the commitment to visa liberalization: Any
of Turkey's 74 million citizens must be able to travel freely
throughout Europe's Schengen zone without a visa. The deadline for
this change is the end of June, and there are many forces in Europe
that are bitterly opposed to visa liberalization for Turks. However,
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said repeatedly that if
visa liberalization isn't granted, then he'll cancel the deal and
allow the full flow of Syrian refugees to Europe to resume. It's
quite possible that there are hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees
currently in Turkey just waiting for the deal to be canceled, and
preparing to travel as soon as it is.

So this vote on century-old Armenian genocide issue arguably is coming
at the worst possible time, at the height of tensions over the
EU-Turkey deal. The suspicion is that the issue was brought to a vote
at this time by people who would like to sabotage the visa
liberalization.

A German official in the government of German Chancellor Angela Merkel
said hopefully, "Despite some of his rhetoric, we believe Erdogan has
a strong interest in making the migrants deal work and will not allow
this to get in the way."

Over a thousand Turks demonstrated against the resolution on Saturday
in front of the Reichstag building in Berlin and some German lawmakers
say they have been bombarded with hate mail and insults on social
media for supporting the resolution. Reuters and
LA Times

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Turkey, Armenian genocide question,
Ottoman Empire, World War I, Edward Nalbandian, Bettina Kula,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Numan Kurtulmus, Angela Merkel

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[Cynic Hero '86]

Hillary will NEVER be president. Most Xers and Millies regard her values to be the values of weaklings and street-urchins. Also Both The Russians and the Chinese seem to believe that large-scale improvements in relations with the US are possible in the event of a Trump Presidency.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMZqS7q7voY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0ygRzpGa8U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGmkPmas4hU

Also regarding the Clintons: Yes we had a strong economy during Bill's administration but everything else deteriorated, we had open borders, The foreign and Military policies were oriented to nonsensical "human rights" ideological obsessions, we attacked Milosevic even though he was doing the christian world a service. The patheticness of the Kosovo campaign was legendary we were just lobbing cruise missiles and air strikes rather than committing ground armies. We Made both Russia and China into enemies by the end of his presidency. Millennials hate Clintonism even more than they hate Bushism. At least Bush committed ground forces in a real campaign into Afghanistan and Iraq, although Bush failed to properly exploit Iraq so it could be used as a springboard to carry out the invasion of Iran, Bush having been deluded by the idea that he could make democrats out of the Iraqis and appointing the incompetent Paul Bremer to oversee it. Earlier Bush 1 successfully wrapped up the first gulf war in 1991.

Regarding XYMOX's Post: The Strong Have a natural right to dominate over those who are weaker than them. The turks took a natural response to a weaker nation within their borders having sided with the enemy in a time of war.