Generational Dynamics World View

[pbrower2a]

(07-07-2018, 11:06 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: What an idiotic analysis. North Korea is not a threat to America because North Korea is communist, North Korea is a threat to America because it is pointing Nuclear Missiles at the US. Stop with this Regime Change Nonsense, the objective if there is a war ought to be annihilation of North Korea, land and people.

China is basically capitalist even if its government demonstrates the structure of a nominally-Communist party that accepts Marx, Engels, Lenin, and Mao as icons if abandoning their techniques except upon command-and-control of the government. The Chinese Communist Party might as well  replace those icons with Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, except that that would be shocking. The People's Republic of China may be no democracy, but it has a couple of features that American economic elites would love: no protections for workers from the power of ownership and management, and the complete absence of a welfare state.

I have a huge problem with Donald Trump ignoring or gutting the political wisdom of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Roosevelt (actually all three of them -- and that includes Eleanore), and Martin Luther King, Jr. in return for vague promises of some super-prosperity that will be worth the loss of personal freedom and dignity. The best that Donald Trump and his followers have to offer is a gilded cage for us all with the stupefying pleasures of  mass low entertainment so long as we acquiesce with the absolute plutocracy that Donald Trump offers us. You can imagine what I think of the offer of Donald Trump and his ideological supporters -- or you can read my posts and see what I have to say.

But I will say this of the PRC -- it at least recognizes the need for a consumer society and the wisdom of offering it as an anodyne for the poverty of China... and the complete lack of personal freedom. I'm guessing that the Chinese self-described Communists are perfectly welcome to watch American-style or even American mass low culture at will. But we had that before Trump, so here it is a question of taking away other things in return for offers of vague benefits worth empty, miserable, stupefied lives.

North Korea is a veritable Hell with a lunatic leader. That makes all the difference in the world.

[John J. Xenakis]

(07-08-2018, 10:49 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I have a huge problem with Donald Trump ignoring or gutting the
> political wisdom of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Roosevelt
> (actually all three of them -- and that includes Eleanore), and
> Martin Luther King, Jr. in return for vague promises of some
> super-prosperity that will be worth the loss of personal freedom
> and dignity. The best that Donald Trump and his followers have to
> offer is a gilded cage for us all with the stupefying pleasures of
> mass low entertainment so long as we acquiesce with the absolute
> plutocracy that Donald Trump offers us. You can imagine what I
> think of the offer of Donald Trump and his ideological supporters
> -- or you can read my posts and see what I have to say.

> But I will say this of the PRC -- it at least recognizes the need
> for a consumer society and the wisdom of offering it as an anodyne
> for the poverty of China... and the complete lack of personal
> freedom. I'm guessing that the Chinese self-described Communists
> are perfectly welcome to watch American-style or even American
> mass low culture at will. But we had that before Trump, so here it
> is a question of taking away other things in return for offers of
> vague benefits worth empty, miserable, stupefied lives.

Lol! So you like dictator Xi Jinping more than Trump. Quelle
surprise!

Reminds me that people like you also loved Mussolini -- maybe he was a
dictator, but he kept the trains running on time.

[pbrower2a]

I dislike both the outright dictator and the wannabe dictator (Trump).

Abandoning Maoism is a good thing. Of course I would rather that China become a liberal society. which it isn't.

Abandoning 220 years of Constitutional democracy is inexcusable and horrific. I consider Donald Trump a vile demagogue who would sacrifice democracy for his own glorification and the enrichment of his cronies. China has gone from one sort of dictatorship (the sort that starves its people in the name of world socialist revolution) to a system that permits free enterprise and consumerism, if not freedom of expression, thought, and faith. Donald Trump has gutted the democratic heritage of America while making promises of unprecedented prosperity -- and if that unprecedented prosperity does not come but people have lost their freedom, so what?

Any people that gives up its essential liberty on behalf of a promise of economic improvement will surely lose its liberty and get practically no economic improvement.

Donald Trump has offered Pascal's Wager -- live miserably in this world in the promise of getting a better one in the distant future or in the Next World. When a slimy con-artist offers it (and demagogues are the worst con-artists) the results are horrible.

If China has gone from being a dictatorial society in which starvation is commonplace to a dictatorial society in which people get to enjoy consumerism characteristic of modern capitalism, then that looks like an unqualified improvement. If the United States goes from democracy to dictatorship, then that

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Jul-18 World View -- India's Kashmir locked down after 3 civilians killed by police

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India's Kashmir locked down after 3 civilians killed by police
  
• Violence sparked by death of Burhan Wani continues to grow
  

****
**** India's Kashmir locked down after 3 civilians killed by police
****


Villagers in Kashmir carry the body of a youth, Faizan Ahmed, 15, during a funeral on June 30, 2018. (AFP)

A 16-year-old girl was among three people who died in Kashmir on
Friday, after security forces opened fire at stone-throwing
protesters. India's army says that it's "investigating" the deaths of
the three civilians, but says that they had to resort to controlled
firing after a patrol unit was attacked by a crowd of nearly 500
people. In a statement, the army that soldiers were injured from
terrorist gunfire.

Mobile internet services have been suspended in the entire Kashmir
Valley, over fears that of widespread unrest, particularly as July 8
is the two-year anniversary of the death of Burhan Wani, the commander
of the Kashmir separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen.

Hizbul Mujahideen is a separatist terror group of Muslims demanding
independence for India-governed Kashmir, and that it be permitted to
merge with Pakistan-governed Kashmir, so that all of Kashmir is under
Pakistan control. Hizbul Mujahideen was formed in 1989, funded by
Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. It's been very
popular in Kashmir, with thousands of anti-India protesters as
members, and is demanding that Kashmir be separated from India and
made part of Pakistan. New Delhi TV and India Times and The Independent (Bangladesh) and Hindustan Times

****
**** Violence sparked by death of Burhan Wani continues to grow
****

The death of Burhan Wani on July 8, 2016, triggered a major surge in
violence that lasted throughout the summer and then into the fall,
resulting in the deaths of 80 people. The violence ebbed only when
the cold of winter set in. Then the violence began again in summer
2017, continuing into the winter.

The violence has been greater so far this year. Since January this
year, 210 people including 58 civilians, over 104 militants, and 48
security forces personnel have been killed in the Valley in different
incidents of violence.

There's also been a change in the membership of the separatist
groups in the last two years. In the past, the members of
the separatist groups had infiltrated from the Pakistan-governed
side of Kashmir, but recently young people from India-government
Kashmir have been announcing their joining the militants on
social media, with pictures of themselves holding guns.

On May 25 of this year, Shamsul Haq Mengnoo, 25, the younger brother
of a police officer, announced on social media that he had joined
Hizbul Mujahideen. Shamsul is the fourth highly-educated youth to
join militant ranks this year, and the 50th youth to join altogether.
On Sunday alone, the anniversary of Wani Burhan's death, over a dozen
newly recruited militants posted pictures on social media.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying
previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard
template. India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's
1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British
colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of
the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the
partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.

Now, as the survivors of the 1947 Partition War have almost all died
off, leaving behind younger generations with no fear of repeating past
disasters, Kashmir is repeating the violence of 1857 and 1947.

As the weather has warmed in the last few weeks, the violence has been
increasing. Generational Dynamics predicts that Kashmir is returning
to full-scale war, re-fighting the extremely bloody partition war of
1947. Tribune India and First Post (India) and CNBC (5-July)

Related Articles

• India cancels ceasefire in Kashmir after one month (18-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Massive new anti-India violence in Kashmir leads to 20 deaths (02-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Portions of Indian-governed Kashmir shut down after deadly clashes (09-Mar-2018)
  
  
• India's 'Operation All-Out' brings Kashmir closer to all-out war (24-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Police clashes in India-governed Kashmir kill 36 and leave thousands injured (14-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Pakistan,
Hizbul Mujahideen, Burhan Wani, Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI,
Shamsul Haq Mengnoo

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

John, is it your opinion that the Idealist North Korean generals win against their Civic dictator? I don't think the average people of North Korea really care about keeping nuclear weapons; they'd rather have sanctions loosened so they starve less.

[John J. Xenakis]

(07-09-2018, 02:34 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > John, is it your opinion that the Idealist North Korean generals
> win against their Civic dictator? I don't think the average people
> of North Korea really care about keeping nuclear weapons; they'd
> rather have sanctions loosened so they starve less.

My opinion is that the development and manufacture of an arsenal of
nuclear missiles has taken on the status of a state religion, and the
North Koreans could no more agree to denuclearize than Iran could
agree to give up Shia Islam or Myamar could give up Buddhism.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Jul-18 World View -- Israel will close crossing point to Gaza in retaliation for incendiary kites

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel will close crossing point to Gaza in retaliation for incendiary kites
  
• The incendiary kite attacks began with 'The Great March for Return'
  

****
**** Israel will close crossing point to Gaza in retaliation for incendiary kites
****


Gate of Kerem Shalom crossing, the main passage point for goods entering Gaza, whose closure was announced on Monday. (Abed Rahim Khatib/Flash90)

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Monday the
close of the Kerem Shalom crossing point between Israel and Gaza. The
crossing is located near the Egyptian border and serves as the main
entry point for commercial goods and humanitarian aid. The closing
will lead to sharp cuts in the flow of commercial goods into Gaza,
although humanitarian aid, food and medicine will still be allowed
through, approved on an individual basis.

The move is retaliation for a wave of incendiary kites and balloons
with firebombs attached that have been launched in recent weeks from
Gaza into Israel. Israeli authorities say that the firebombs have set
fire to 7,000 acres of forest and farmland in southern Israel.

Netanyahu said that additional steps will be taken to try to stop the
kites and balloons:

<QUOTE>"About Gaza, I have been telling you for some time
that I do not intend to publicize in advance all the steps that we
are taking or planning. But the Defense Minister and I agree that
we will be heavy-handed with the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip –
immediately. In a significant step, today we are closing the Kerem
Shalom crossing. There will be additional steps; I will not go
into details."<END QUOTE>

An Israeli army statement announced an additional member to be taken
immediately. Gaza’s designated fishing zone will be reduced from nine
to six nautical miles off the coast throughout the duration of the
season. This is a reversal of a decision to expand the fishing zone.
The fishing zone is usually six naval miles wide but was temporarily
expanded to nine miles three months ago.

The statement added the following:

<QUOTE>"If Hamas continues in this direction, these decisions
will continue and will intensify. The Hamas terrorist organization
is responsible for what is happening inside the Gaza Strip and
coming out of it. Hamas is dragging the population of Gaza into
the abyss, and the Israeli Defense Forces will continue to work to
preserve Israel's security interests."<END QUOTE>

A Hamas spokesman said that closing the crossing point was "a new
crime against humanity added to the black record of the Israeli
occupation against our Palestinian people and our people in the Gaza
Strip." He added:

<QUOTE>"International and regional silence for the crime of
the suffocating siege imposed on the Gaza Strip for (nearly) 12
years has encouraged the Israeli enemy to carry on with its
criminal measures that violate human rights and international
laws. Therefore, Hamas calls on the international community to
act immediately and prevent this crime and its dangerous
consequences."<END QUOTE>

However, Israel's Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said that the
incendiary kites and balloons deserve even harsher punishment that
Israel inflicted on Gaza in Operation Protective Edge, the 2014 war in
Gaza which killed 74 Israeli soldiers and thousands of Gaza civilians:
"The way Hamas is conducting itself, it could pay a heavier price than
it did in Protective Edge. This situation, in which every day our
woodlands are being burned every day cannot continue,"

Liberman on Monday also announced that he was designing the
Lebanon-based al-Quds television network as a terrorist organization,
accusing it of being an arm of Hamas. This will permit Israel to
impose economic sanctions on the network. However, a spokesman for
the network said, "The decision on the al-Quds channel is another step
of terror that joins the other violent decisions Israel has taken
against the Palestinian people." World Israel News and Middle East Eye and YNet News (Israel) and Times of Israel

****
**** The incendiary kite attacks began with 'The Great March for Return'
****

The "Great March for Return" began on March 30 of this year, when
thousands of Gazans demonstrated near the border fence separating Gaza
from Israel and sometimes attempting to break through the fence. The
objective was for Palestinians to exercise their "Right of Return," to
regain the lands where their ancestors had lived, prior to the 1947
war between Arabs and Jews that followed the partitioning of Palestine
and the creation of the state of Israel.

When the Great March for Return began, Israeli authorities were
concerned that if a group of Gaza activists broke through the fence,
they would attack Israeli homes. Israel's army retaliated first with
tear gas and then with live gunfire. During the first march, 16
Palestinians were killed, and hundreds were wounded.

The demonstrations peaked on May 14, which the Palestinians
commemorate as "Naqba Day" or "Catastrophe Day," commemorating the
founding, in 1948, of the state of Israel. In addition, May 14 is the
day announced by the Trump administration when the official US embassy
to Israel will move to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv.

After that, the demonstrations on the Gaza border began to diminish,
but there were replaced by a new tactic, the incendiary kites and
balloons, which have been in use to this day.

The incendiary kites and balloons appear to have baffled the Israeli
military, which has not found a way to deal with them, putting the
Netanyahu government under pressure to solve the problem. The
announcements on Monday, including closing the Kerem Shalom crossing
point between Israel and Gaza, is retaliation for the kites and
balloons, but it remains to be seen whether the retaliatory acts will
prevent them. Reuters and Israel National News

Related Articles:

• Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now (01-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Gaza Palestinians burn tires to hide protests from Israel's army (07-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Gaza Palestinian 'Land Day' demonstrations lead to violence with Israel's army (01-Apr-2018)
  
  
• US embassy to Jerusalem will commemorate Israel's founding -- Palestinian 'Naqba Day' (24-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Kerem Shalom, Egypt,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Avigdor Liberman, Operation Protective Edge,
al-Quds television, Great March for Return,
Naqba Day, Catastrophe Day

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

(07-09-2018, 05:03 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(07-09-2018, 02:34 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   John, is it your opinion that the Idealist North Korean generals
>   win against their Civic dictator? I don't think the average people
>   of North Korea really care about keeping nuclear weapons; they'd
>   rather have sanctions loosened so they starve less.

My opinion is that the development and manufacture of an arsenal of
nuclear missiles has taken on the status of a state religion, and the
North Koreans could no more agree to denuclearize than Iran could
agree to give up Shia Islam or Myamar could give up Buddhism.

..but the Germans could give up Nazism, and the Japanese could give up the concept of their Emperor as a god.

Sometimes it takes a catastrophe to force people to give up patterns of thought that lead to defeat that comes with great shame and utter ruin.

[David Horn]

(07-03-2018, 05:03 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(07-03-2018, 03:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: Whatever you're using to post, it sucks.  I haven't dealt with the hard per-line character limit in 20 years!

Well, it's a generational thing.  You kids use the new-fangled long lines, but I prefer the old-fashioned way, sticking to the 72 characters per line of text (to the left of the 8-digit sequence number) on IBM punch cards.

John, you are exactly one year my senior, to the day. How does that make me a 'kid'?

John X Wrote:

David H Wrote:Well, you can certainly hold a grudge if you want to look back 50 years.  Just fyi: most of that was political theater.

Really? Were Hitler's concentration camps just political theatre too?  You're an idiot.

I think Hitler was bit farther back than 50 years. You might look at what I write, not what you wish I had written.

John X Wrote:

David H Wrote:Since I've never been fond of Chavez either, and thought Stalin and Mao were as despicable as you do, what's your beef here?  You can't just assign political positions to others because it's convenient for you.

Well, I did assume that you're a left-winger.  Maybe you should drop the left-wing political theatre and start supporting MAGA.

I don't support authoritarians of any stripe -- particularly American ones.

John X Wrote:

David H Wrote:He's going after Merkel as hard as he can, and he's insulted just about every ally we have in Europe and the Far East.  Of course, he loves the Saudis, Erdogan and Duterte -- to say nothing of Putin.  He's even friendly with Kim Jong-un, for God's sake!

Merkel?  You love Merkel?

• Is she the one that just agreed to border migrant camps and fences -- just like Trump wants on our border?  Is that the one you mean?
  
  
• Or do you mean the Merkel who lectures everyone about climate change to fool left wing useful idiots, while Germany's CO2 emissions keep increasing, and the 2020 goals are a joke?
  
  
• Are you referring to Germany, the "dieselgate" country that sold emissions detection defeat devices for over ten years so that, once again, Germany could make fools out of useful idiot climate change activists?  Is that the Germany that you mean?  (I won't include you among the useful idiot climate change activists, since I don't want to "assign" to you the view that you support the climate change treaty nonsense.  It's all political theatre and a financial scam.)
  
  
• Or maybe you mean the Germany with the rising AfD neo-nazi party? Is it that Germany you're so in love with?
  
  
• Or do you mean the Germany that charges 10 times as much in tariffs for American imports as America charges for German imports,
  but still refuses to remove all tariffs as Trump suggested?  Is that the one you mean?
  

Which of those Germanies do you find so exciting that you've fallen in love with them?

Merkel and Germany are far from perfect, but they are allies of long standing. Putin and Russia, on the other hand, have no interest in anything other than hegemony, which they are ill equipped to manage. Assume their management style will involve their military, since they have nothing else to offer. Are you OK with Cold War 2.0?

John X Wrote:I'll go back and answer one more of your questions, the one about why Trump is friendly with Kim Jong-un.  Donald Trump is well aware that we're headed for war with China (Steve Bannon is an expert on Generational Dynamics), and is well aware that Kim Jong-un building an arsenal of nuclear weapons pointing at the United States -- leading to World War.  Trump is aware of all this, and by befriending Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un, he's desperately trying to prevent a world war, and befriending these two maniacs is a small price to pay to prevent a world war.  Trump is aware of the Generational Dynamics predictions, but like many people (probably including yourself), he probably believes the predictions can be prevented -- which they can't.  World war is coming with 100% certainty, but I can't blame Trump for trying the impossible - to prevent it.

As I've written in the past, everything that Trump does makes sense to me.  That doesn't mean he doesn't make mistakes, but it makes sense.

I have to wonder whether you're serious or just pulling my leg. What possible benefit is the ad hoc Trumpist foreign policy to the US or the world at large? We need leverage with the DPRK, and the only leverage available is Chin. Trump's solution: start at a trade war with them, and make it bitter. Of course, we can lean on our allies, except we're doing the exact same thing with all of them. Add-in the coziness with dictators in general and whole thing stinks to high heaven.

Come on John. We don't agree on much, but this is lunacy!

[David Horn]

(07-04-2018, 01:22 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(07-03-2018, 03:45 PM)David Horn Wrote: I just take you at your word.  At most, I extrapolate.  John just assigns beliefs at will.

John is merely extrapolating your beliefs.  The difference between you and him is just that he does so correctly.

No, you can't use that dodge. I've told John on numerous occasions that I'm vehemently anti-Communist, but he still paints me as a Marxist.

[pbrower2a]

(07-10-2018, 10:20 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-04-2018, 01:22 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(07-03-2018, 03:45 PM)David Horn Wrote: I just take you at your word.  At most, I extrapolate.  John just assigns beliefs at will.

John is merely extrapolating your beliefs.  The difference between you and him is just that he does so correctly.

No, you can't use that dodge.  I've told John on numerous occasions that I'm vehemently anti-Communist, but he still paints me as a Marxist.

He occasionally accuses me of being a Marxist-Leninist. We can learn a few things from Marx, things that he has made possible for contemplation. That includes the tools for debunking Marxist-Leninist regimes.

Few people have coherent ideas of how a post-scarcity world will look -- as in how its economics will operate. Or will we find ourselves in some nightmarish reaction that gives us feudalism with advanced technologies of repression?

With the post-scarcity world also comes the hazards of the Singularity, in which machine intelligence becomes more powerful than human capacity to think. Computers so far do drudge work such as mathematical calculation -- as in getting the first billion digits of e or pi. But artificial intelligence more cunning, ruthless, organized, and clever than ourselves? Man is 'the most terrible tiger' because of his cunning, ruthlessness, organized, and cleverness. Just imagine artificial intelligence capable of enslaving or exterminating us. That intelligence would find plenty of quislings and kapos to do the dirtiest work among us.

[John J. Xenakis]

(07-10-2018, 10:15 AM)David Horn Wrote: > I have to wonder whether you're serious or just pulling my leg.

Yes, I was serious. No, I wasn't pulling your leg.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Jul-18 World View -- Concerns grow that Azerbaijan plans Armenia invasion from Nakhchivan enclave

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tensions grow between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nakhchivan enclave
  
• Concerns grow that Azerbaijan plans Armenia invasion from Nakhchivan enclave
  

****
**** Tensions grow between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nakhchivan enclave
****


Azerbaijan. The disputed enclaves are Nagorno-Karabakh in mid-Azerbaijan, and Nakhchivan (Naxçivan), in the southwest corner of the map, separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by Armenian territory. Not shown on the map, Turkey has a 10 km border with Nakhchivan. (CIA World Factbook)

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been rising quickly in
the last month, as the result of the movement of Azerbaijan military
forces in the enclave of Nakhchivan closer to the border with Armenia.

In recent years, most of the military tension between the two
countries has been related to Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave of Armenian
citizens in the midst of Azerbaijan. Armenia and Azerbaijan were both
part of the Soviet Union empire, but the collapse of the Soviet Union
in 1991, led to a bloody war between the two countries. The war ended
in a cease-fire, with the Armenians in control of several Azerbaijani
regions, including Nagorno-Karabakh.

In April 2016, the continuing low-level conflict between the two
countries spiraled into a major clash, the worst since 1994, with
tanks, heavy artillery and helicopters. ( "3-Apr-16 World View -- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region"
)
Although that clash ended once again in a cease-fire, low-level
violence has been almost continuous since then, with each side
typically accusing the other of hundreds of cease-fire violations
every week.

The new increase in tensions is not in Nagorno-Karabakh, but in
Nakhchivan (Naxçivan), an enclave shown in the southwest corner of the
above map. Nakhchivan is recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but it's
separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by part of Armenia.

Both of the enclaves Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhchivan were created by
Soviet leader Josef Stalin, but supposedly for similar reasons -- to
maintain tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia so that Russia could
use its time-tested approach of dive and rule. More important, Stalin
wanted to deprive Turkey of a direct land bridge to Azerbaijan and
Turkic Central Asia while giving Armenia an external Soviet border to
Iran.

Starting in 1993, after Turkey and Azerbaijan closed their borders
with Armenia, a railway connecting Kars, in far eastern Turkey, to
Central Asia to the Caucasus was proposed. Since October 2017, the
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) Railway has been transporting goods between
Kazakhstan and central Europe, with plans to increase its capacity.
Jamestown (12-June) and Vice (8-May-2013) and EurasiaNet (29-June)

****
**** Concerns grow that Azerbaijan plans Armenia invasion from Nakhchivan enclave
****

Some Russian analysts are raising concerns that Azerbaijan is about to
invade Armenia from Nakhchivan, based on movements by Azeri troops.
If that happens, it would not be long before other countries in the
region would begin choosing sides.

During the 1800s, Azerbaijan was a province of Iran, and there's a
large Persian population in Azerbaijan, which is particularly heavy in
Nakhchivan.

Iran would be able to exert a great deal of control over Nakhchivan if
the invasion takes place. Iran controls the only land bridge between
Nakhchivan and the rest of Azerbaijan, and so limit the supplies being
sent to Nakhchivan. Furthermore, Iran supplies much of the water and
electricity to Nakhchivan, and could shut them off if desired.
However, Iran might support the invasion in return for concessions
from Azerbaijan, particularly ending support for the separatist ethnic
Azerbaijanis in northern Iran.

Turkey has close relations with Azerbaijan, because of the latter's
large Turkic population. Turkey also has a long, bitter history with
Armenia, especially after the slaughter and displacement of millions
of Armenians in Turkey during World War I. So Turkey might support an
Azeri invasion of Armenia.

However, despite the love-fest between Turkey and Russia in Syria in
recent years, Turkey and Russia are bitter historic enemies, with
centuries of crisis wars in the southern Caucasus, and that enmity
would quickly be revived in the case of a new Caucasus war between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.

On the other hand, Orthodox (Armenian Apostolic) Christians in Armenia
are culturally linked to Russian Orthodox Christians, and so Russia
would choose the side of Armenia against Azerbaijan.

In the case of an Azerbaijan attack on Armenia, Armenia could invoke a
1997 mutual defense treaty with Russia, and as a member of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia's version of
Nato for the former members of the Soviet Union, Armenia has the right
to request assistance of any kind, including direct military, from the
entire bloc or from its individual member countries. Russia has also
promised to provide Armenia with air-defense radars and missiles.

Furthermore, the "Armenian-Russian United Group of Forces," formed
after April 2016 clash, could enter the war. A Russian analysis
provides a vitriolic response to complaints from Turkey and Azerbaijan
when this force grouping was formed in 2016:

<QUOTE>"For example, it is widely known that the creation of
the Armenian-Russian grouping of troops from the very first days
was sharply criticized by Turkey and Azerbaijan, whose policies
agitated Moscow to abandon this idea and see exclusively "devoted
allies" in Ankara and Baku. It seems that considering all the
"knives in the back" that the Turks of Russia have stumbled upon
(from the shot down planes in Syria, the murders of pilots to the
brazen act of terrorism against the Russian ambassador to Karlov
in Ankara) from 2015-16, the hypocrisy of the opponents of
creating and operating the Armenian- Russian groupings of troops
are more than noticeable. As well as the fact that Moscow was not
and does not intend to listen to the pharisaic calls of Ankara and
Baku."<END QUOTE>

The statement alludes to Turkey's shooting down of a Russian warplane
in Syria in November 2015, and the assassination of a Russian diplomat
in Ankara in December 2016. Jamestown and Regnum (Russia, 28-June) (Trans) and EurasiaNet (3-July) and Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense

Related Articles:

• Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region (03-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency (07-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Turkey, Armenia hold dueling WW1 centennials over genocide and Gallipoli (25-Apr-2015)
  
  
• Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Terror in Berlin and Ankara as Russia's ambassador to Turkey shot dead (20-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Consequences of Russia/Georgia conflict spread to southern Caucasus (03-Sep-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Nagorno-Karabakh, Nakhchivan, Naxçivan,
Soviet Union, Josef Stalin, Russia, Turkey, Kars, Iran,
Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO

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Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[JDG 66]

(06-25-2018, 10:11 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-22-2018, 02:54 PM)JDG 66 Wrote:

(06-18-2018, 03:35 PM)David Horn Wrote: I suspect that Europewide tolerance of the ongoing immigrant flow may finally be hitting its peak... 

I remember you praising Sweden taking in 1 million immigrants from The Culture of Rape. I wasn't the only one who pointed out that would not turn out well. Go figure.

BTW, long time, no post, Mr. Horn!

Sweden may be arriving at Immigrant Maximum, for the same reason that a pitcher can't take more water: they're full.  For all of that, it's hard to say that things  are terrible there.  Certainly, they have had a difficult time absorbing that many non-Swedes, as we would have had absorbing 30+ Million in the US, but they are doing it very well, with minimal disruptions to daily life.  That's not to say 'no disruptions'.

Try being an infidel in Malmoe:


https://pjmedia.com/video/ami-horowitz-w...-by-5-men/

[JDG 66]

(07-02-2018, 07:46 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(07-02-2018, 03:39 PM)David Horn Wrote: >   Really?  Stalin and Mao are hardly exemplars of the left.

...in the 60s, they were all walking around carrying a book of Mao's
Thoughts in the back pockets.

Then when people like me are proved right, and people like you are
proved wrong, that's when you say -- "Stalin and Mao are hardly
exemplars of the left."  Well yes they are, or they were, until
you changed your mind for convenience.

The same is true of Chavez.  All the leftist idiots were in love with
Chavez when he was destroying Venezuela, and people like me were
saying that he was a disaster.  Now it turns out that I was right and
people like you were disastrously wrong, and all these loony left
idiot celebrities and politicians no longer want to talk about
Venezuela...

Let's see. Che, and Castro leap to mind. And the Sandinistas. I have an 1990s Rand McNally Atlas which sings the praises of Dr. Robert Mugabe. The entire period from the Summer of 1972 to November 1989 consisted of the Left claiming moral equality between the US and the USSR.

[JDG 66]

(07-02-2018, 12:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-02-2018, 08:19 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: You're just making excuses for left-wing violence.  And referring to Festinger's experiment, calling Trump a sociopath is the equivalent of predicting the Guardians are coming in flying saucers.

The amount of left-wing violence in the recent past is pretty minimal...
Trump, on the other hand, is a problem.  He either believes the nonsense he spews or he's being cynical for personal gain.  Nothing good can come from either of the two.

Hear of a guy name of Hodgkinson? Nothing like that from Trumpsters. Trumpsters are so harmless that the Left went on a spree right after the election, claiming bogus attacks by Trump supporters. Sheesh.

[David Horn]

(07-11-2018, 01:58 PM)JDG 66 Wrote:

(07-02-2018, 12:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-02-2018, 08:19 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: You're just making excuses for left-wing violence.  And referring to Festinger's experiment, calling Trump a sociopath is the equivalent of predicting the Guardians are coming in flying saucers.

The amount of left-wing violence in the recent past is pretty minimal...
Trump, on the other hand, is a problem.  He either believes the nonsense he spews or he's being cynical for personal gain.  Nothing good can come from either of the two.

Hear of a guy name of Hodgkinson? Nothing like that from Trumpsters. Trumpsters are so harmless that the Left went on a spree right after the election, claiming bogus attacks by Trump supporters. Sheesh.

I know people who were in Charlottesville when the neo-Nazis came to town.  I have a hard time seeing that as "bogus".

[David Horn]

(07-11-2018, 01:54 PM)JDG 66 Wrote:

(07-02-2018, 07:46 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(07-02-2018, 03:39 PM)David Horn Wrote: >   Really?  Stalin and Mao are hardly exemplars of the left.

...in the 60s, they were all walking around carrying a book of Mao's Thoughts in the back pockets.

Then when people like me are proved right, and people like you are proved wrong, that's when you say -- "Stalin and Mao are hardly exemplars of the left."  Well yes they are, or they were, until you changed your mind for convenience.

The same is true of Chavez.  All the leftist idiots were in love with Chavez when he was destroying Venezuela, and people like me were saying that he was a disaster.  Now it turns out that I was right and people like you were disastrously wrong, and all these loony left idiot celebrities and politicians no longer want to talk about Venezuela...

Let's see. Che, and Castro leap to mind. And the Sandinistas. I have an 1990s Rand McNally Atlas which sings the praises of Dr. Robert Mugabe. The entire period from the Summer of 1972 to November 1989 consisted of the Left claiming moral equality between the US and the USSR.

Cites?  Oh yeah, you don't do those.  Well let me put in a quick word: projection.  I'm sure you can find a LW radical somewhere to cite, but you'll never find anyone in the class of Timothy McVeigh.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Jul-18 World View -- Haiti blames IMF for fuel price increases triggering riots

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Haiti people riot after announcement of fuel price rises during World Cup match
  
• International Monetary Fund blamed for austerity triggering riots
  

****
**** Haiti people riot after announcement of fuel price rises during World Cup match
****


People dump trash and raw sewage into canals that run through Port-au-Prince, Haiti. When it rains, the canals overflow and flood poor neighborhoods. (NPR)

On Friday, as Haitians were watching the World Cup game between Brazil
and Belgium, Haiti's government announced the end of large subsidies
on fuel prices, resulting in dramatic price increases -- 38% for
gasoline, 47% for diesel fuel, and 51% for kerosene. The increases
were blamed on the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The price increases for fuel appeared to affect everyone. The
gasoline prices affected those in the middle or upper classes who own
automobiles, the diesel prices affected businesspeople who use diesel
fuel for trucks and heavy equipment, and the kerosene price increases
hit poor people especially hard, as they burn kerosene to light up
their homes, lacking electricity.

Haiti was the poorest country in the world, even before the major
earthquake the country suffered in 2010. There was a huge outpouring
of international aid after the earthquake, including a large fund
organized by former president Bill Clinton, but none of the people
seem to have benefited, and almost all the money was apparently lost
in corruption.

The government had apparently hoped that by announcing the price
increases during Friday's World Cup game, nobody would notice. That
turned out to be a major miscalculation. Most Haitians fervently
supported Brazil over Belgium in Friday's World Cup game, and were
shocked when the game ended in a loss for Brazil. The rioting began
five minutes after the game ended. Burning tires blocked major routes
in Haiti's capital city Port-au-Prince, and sporadic gunfire could be
heard around the city. Store and car windows in the affluent sections
of Port-au-Prince were reportedly smashed. Affluent hotels were also
targeted. Three people were killed on Friday.

As the rioting became increasingly violent, Haiti's president Jovenel
Moïse, accompanied by his wife Martine, appeared in a televised
address to the nation on Saturday evening:

<QUOTE>"You sent me the message and I got it. I corrected
what needed to be corrected.... I asked the Government to
reconsider the decision to withdraw subsidies on the prices of
petroleum products. The Prime Minister did it. The price of fuel
remains what it was before, throughout the national territory.
There is no longer an increase in gas prices. ... Now I ask you to
stay calm and go home. ... I know that it is to me that you gave
the power, but I cannot run alone. I have to have a lot of people
around me before making a decision."<END QUOTE>

The protests didn't end. On Monday, workers went on strike and shut
the capital down. Many analysts have stated that the continuing riots
are being caused by massive government corruption. According to one
NGO analyst:

<QUOTE>"Having had over ten deployments to Haiti following
the earthquake in 2010, including during their elections, I do not
think that the increase in fuel prices is the root cause of this
crisis.

They know that sacrifices have to be made to improve their
economy, and they have made them in the past. However, after
suffering for so long, the Haitian people hate being tricked

Their political candidates promised to address mismanagement and
corruption if they were elected. The people expected improvements
in government efficiency, and arrests of those accused of
corruption, before being targeted for austerity.

However, to have austerity forced on them, without the promised
efficiency and arrests, appeared to be too much for the people to
bear from a government that promised to be
different."<END QUOTE>

The United States has warned Americans living in Haiti to shelter in
place in their homes, to avoid the violence. A marine security
detachment of 13 marines has arrived in Haiti to provide security at
the US embassy there.

Both the United States and Canada have policies to deport Haitians who
fled from the violence following the 2010 earthquake. Activists in
Canada is demanding that because of the current violence, deportations
back to Haiti should immediately end, and Haiti should be put back on
the government list of countries to which migrants may not be
returned. AFP (7-July) and Barbados Today and Military.com and Canadian Broadcasting

****
**** International Monetary Fund blamed for austerity triggering riots
****

The fuel price increases announced on Friday were caused by a
termination of subsidies as demanded by the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) in return for $96 million in loans and grants from the IMF
and the World Bank.

When the price increases were announced, Prime Minister Guy Lafontant
said, “I ask for your patience because our administration has a
vision, a clear program." He defended the price increases because the
subsidies make Haiti's fuel prices the lowest in Latin America among
the non-petroleum producing nations. Furthermore he claimed that many
people regularly crossed the border from neighboring Dominican
Republic, where oil prices are 43% higher, to take advantage of the
subsidized prices in Haiti, which meant that the subsidies were
supporting both Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

The austerity demands were in an agreement that Haiti signed with the
IMF in February. The agreement defines a "Staff-Monitored Program"
(SMP), where IMF closely monitors government activities in Haiti in
return from the loans and grants. The agreement requires that it is
necessary "to eliminate excessive subsidies, including on retail
fuel." According to the agreement:

<QUOTE>"“Under the SMP, fiscal policy will focus on
mobilizing revenues and rationalizing current expenditure, to make
room for critical public investment in infrastructure, health,
education and social services. This will include measures to
improve tax collection and efficiency, and to eliminate excessive
subsidies, including on retail fuel. Other reforms will focus on
stemming the losses of the public electricity company (EDH), which
in recent years have amounted to a sizeable portion of the public
deficit, by improving the efficiency of billing, and by reforming
contracting practices. Fiscal reforms also aim to increase the
transparency of public accounts. These reforms are to be
accompanied by a substantial package of mitigating measures to
protect the most vulnerable members of society. ...

IMF staff will work closely with the authorities to monitor
progress in the implementation of their economic
program.."<END QUOTE>

By Wednesday, relative calm had been restored in Haiti. The president
and prime minister are under pressure to resign, and it's not known
how the IMF will react, now that the subsidies have been restored.
Atlanta Black Star and IMF (27-Feb-2018)
and Miami Herald

Related Articles

• Thousands of Haitians living in Miami scheduled for deportation in January (14-Oct-2017)
  
  
• US will deport tens of thousands of Haitian immigrants surging toward California (25-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Thousands of migrants flee to Canada, fearing deportation in the US (04-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Violence and cholera spread in Haiti (09-Dec-2010)
  
  
• History of Haiti (04-Mar-2004)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Haiti, Bill Clinton,
Jovenel Moïse, World Cup, Brazil, Belgium, Canada,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Guy Lafontant,
Dominican Republic

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(07-11-2018, 02:43 PM)David Horn Wrote: > I know people who were in Charlottesville when the neo-Nazis came
> to town. I have a hard time seeing that as "bogus".

The difference is that the neo-nazis are condemned by everyone
on the right and left, except for a small group of nutcases.

But Socialism, which is ten times worse than the Nazis, is praised and
adored by almost everyone on the left. The Nazis killed tens of
millions of people in the last century, while the Socialists killed
hundreds of millions. The Socialists are killing, starving, jailing
and torturing people in Venezuela today.

The Nazis are condemned by the right, who are on the side of law and
order. But the Left are the mainstream supporters of slaughter,
torture, rape, jailings, killings and mutilations performed by the
Socialists. That's the difference.