Generational Dynamics World View

[pbrower2a]

(08-07-2018, 03:50 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-06-2018, 02:57 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(08-06-2018, 02:33 PM)David Horn Wrote: The real question: why did anyone take this even a little seriously?  Have we entered the era of the post-serious Presidency, where entertainment value trumps all?

Yeah, a lot of leftist loons have been openly hoping that the nuclear negotiations would fail, so that it could be chalked up as a Trump failure.  Never mind that it could mean war with North Korea -- to these idiots, war, nuclear fallout, starvation, etc. and anything else is preferable to Trump.

It's like that idiot Bill Maher declaring that he wants a major recession to occur, so that Trump will be blamed.  The left-wing racist pigs have been particularly out in force with regard to the unemployment rate for blacks being the lowest in history.  These left-wing racist pigs in the Democratic party would rather that the uppity blacks remain in the slaves' quarters rather than be employed and earn enough money to get homes of their own, since then they might vote for Republicans.  Better to keep them in slaves' quarters, where they'll vote for Democrats.

Getting back to Korea, a lot of people on the right might agree with you.  Instead of negotiating with North Korea, they would have preferred right at the beginning military action, targeting the nuclear and missile development sites.  I guess that's your position too.  Lovely.  Anything's better than Trump.  Right?

First: U3 is low, but workforce penetration is abysmal.  Chalk that up to the gig economy, and the way we measure unemployment.  The GOP hasn't presided over higher employment, higher wages or improved working conditions.  Quite to the contrary.  So the U3 numbers aren't fake news, but they are mostly irrelevant.

Second: Kissy-Huggy in Singapore is far from a successful negotiation or even a modest breakthrough.  You, of all people, should know that.

There are few 'leftist loons' who admire North Korea. The system binds two of the worst examples of government ever -- Stalinism and absolute monarchy. The horror stories from people escaping North Korea are unforgettable. I consider myself rather right wing in contrast to Donald Trump on foreign policy if not economics... it will take China to enforce any deal to remove nukes and ICBMs from the repertory of North Korean terror. Trump ignored this.

He did not get China, Japan, South Korea, or Russia (all of which have a stake in removing the North Korean collection of 'bad-boy toys') in on the deal. The deal has become little more than "trust me" between two capricious leaders. Does anyone trust that? Can anyone trust political leadership that executes a whole family that has one dissident?

It's good for a press conference, and that is about all. It impresses Trump supporters, but few else. It can all go badly because there are no consequences for a violation of trust short of apocalyptic war.

...and yes, the gig economy is wholly inadequate for meeting the American dream. The American economy has the enrichment of elites as its sole objective, all else subordinate to such. Maybe Obama could mitigate that some -- but Trump has opened the floodgate to a level of inequality characteristic of the sorts of countries that many of our ancestors fled for America.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-Aug-18 World View -- Iran's protesters blame bad economy on Supreme Leader, not on US sanctions

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US reimposes US sanctions against Iran that ended with 2015 nuclear deal
  
• Iran's protesters blame bad economy on Supreme Leader, not on US sanctions
  
• The international demand for regime change in Iran
  

****
**** US reimposes US sanctions against Iran that ended with 2015 nuclear deal
****


A mural painting on the wall of the former US embassy in Tehran, where the 1980 Iranian hostage crisis originally occurred (AFP)

President Donald Trump on Tuesday issued an executive order reimposing
economic sanctions that had been eased by the 2015 nuclear deal. The
sanctions target Iran's automotive industry, the purchase of
commercial aircraft and metals including gold, and the selling of
Persian carpets.

Trump tweeted:

<QUOTE>"Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing
business with the United States. I am asking for WORLD PEACE,
nothing less!"<END QUOTE>

The action appears to have thrown the European Union into a new level
of chaos.

The sanctions bar any company which does business in Iran from doing
business in the US - under far reaching secondary sanctions - and they
also forbid any company that does business in the US from doing
business with any company that does any business with Iran. This
means, for example, that under certain circumstances a bank may have
to deny a company doing business with Iran access to its own
dollar-based bank accounts. But in that case, the bank could be sued
by its own customers.

Trying to cope, the EU has passed so-called "blocking laws" that would
make it illegal for banks to withdraw services to companies doing
business with Iran or even with other companies that do business with
Iran. The laws are designed to limit the potential damage to European
companies conducting legitimate business with Iran directly or
indirectly.

However, these laws have not been particularly effective. Germany's
carmaker Daimler immediately announced a halt to its business
activities in Iran. France's oil and gas giant Total has already
indicated it intends to shelve a multi-billion dollar investment in
Iran. France's automaker Renault, which had an 8% share of Iran's
automotive market, announced last week it would comply with the
sanctions. Peugeot withdrew in June. More than 100 international
companies have also said they would comply.

However, China's auto companies are rushing to fill the gap left by
departing European companies. Chinese cars already have a nearly 10%
share of Iran's auto market, and a 50% share of auto parts imported
into Iran. Iran Khodro, Iran's largest car manufacturer and assembler
of foreign cars, recently told its salesmen to promote to customers
China’s H30 Cross, made by Dongfeng Fengshen, as a replacement for
Renault’s Tondar 90.

Other Chinese car manufacturers present in Iran include Chery and
Brilliance, whose H330, assembled in Iran by Saipa, is among the top
10 best-selling cars in the country. China has also lifted monthly
oil imports from Iran by 26%. China is the world’s top crude oil
buyer and Iran’s biggest customer. RFE/RL and BBC and VOA and Deutsche Welle

****
**** Iran's protesters blame bad economy on Supreme Leader, not on US sanctions
****

Iran's economy is in serious trouble. The rial currency has been
plummeting against the dollar since May, when the US announced that
sanctions would be imposed on August 7.

Since that time there have been growing street protests in cities
across the country. However, they're not anti-American protests,
which is something we as Americans have come to expect for decades.
Instead, the protests are blaming their own government.

Here's a list of street protesters chants collected by RFE/RL in the
last few days:

<QUOTE>“Death to high prices and inflation.”
“We don’t want incompetent officials.”
“Not to Gaza, not to Lebanon. May my life
be sacrificed for Iran.”
“Death to the dictator.”
“Our enemy is right here. They lie when they say it’s America.”
"Reza Shah, bless your soul.”
“Iranians, shout out your demands.”
"Police forces, support [us], support [us].”
“Death to Hizballah.”
“Iranians die, [but] they don’t accept abjection.”
“Death to Khamenei.”
“Mullahs must get lost.”
“Don’t be scared, we’re all together.”<END QUOTE>

If you want to understand what's going on, the easiest model to keep
in mind is the street protests in America in the 1960s and 1970s.
Although the several things were protested, they were mainly anti-war
protests against the war in Vietnam.

Logic might indicate that since the North Vietnamese in Hanoi were the
enemy, Americans should be on the side of the Americans, not the North
Vietnamese. It's true that few Americans were openly on the side of
the North Vietnamese (Jane Fonda and John Kerry come to mind), but few
Americans were on the side of America either.

It made no difference what the Nixon administration did. The young
protesters were opposed to everything. And it made no difference what
Hanoi did either. There was nothing that Hanoi could have done to
make the young protesters say, "Gee, maybe Nixon is right. I'm going
to support him now." Violent street protests in Los Angeles and
Detroit were blamed on presidents Johnson and Nixon. The 1968 riot at
the Democratic convention in Chicago was blamed on Johnson and Nixon.
The shootings of students at Kent State College in 1972 were blamed on
Nixon.

This is what always happens in a generational Awakening, starting
around 20 years after the end of a generational crisis war, in this
case World War II. The survivors of the war traumatized by its
horrors, and vow to keep it from happening again. The generation that
grows up after the war have no personal memory of it, and they turn
against the generations of survivors in what's called a "generation
gap"

Exactly the same thing is happening in Iran today. The first major
anti-government protest began in 1999, about 20 years after the 1979
Islamic Revolution. Some 10,000 students rioted in Tehran University,
chanting anti-government slogans. The police reacted violently,
leaving at least 20 people hospitalized and 125 students jailed.

There were sporadic protests every few months after that. The next
round of major protests, large enouch to threaten the government
occurred after the 2009 presidential election. The violence that
followed was bloody and massive. Largely peaceful street protests by
hundreds of thousands of mostly young people occurred in Iran’s main
cities and provincial capitals, including Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan and
Shiraz. They were met with unrestrained violence by the police and
security forces. Dozens were killed, and 4,000 people were jailed.
The police particularly targeted journalists and other government
critics with widespread torture, beatings, and threats against family
members.

A new round of protests began in December 2017, and they've been
continuing intermittently since then.

Just as there's almost nothing that Hanoi could have done in 1960s
America to cause young people to support Richard Nixon, there is
nothing that the US can do today that would cause Iran's young people
to support the Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei. Every problem will
be interpreted through the filter of opposing the current government.

And there are plenty of things to protest against, as you can see from
the anti-government chants listed above.

There's a big antiwar factor. Young people want Iran out of Syria.
Young people want Iran out of Gaza. Young people want Iran to stop
funding Hezbollah. Young people want Israel to be left alone. Young
people blame the poor economy on massive military spending abroad. In
fact, Iran received tens of billions of dollars when sanctions were
lifted in 2015, but ordinary people saw little of it. It mostly
benefitted government cronies, and the rest was spent on foreign wars.

That leads to the second major factor: Corruption. According to
Transparency International, Iran's government is among the most
corrupt in the world. According to its transparency index, Iran has
an extremely low score of 30 out of 100. By comparison, the worst
performing region in the world is sub-Saharan Africa, with a score of
32, which is a better score than Iran's.

Corruption has become so endemic and so bad in Iran's government that
even government officials have been expressing alarm. The reason that
Iran is so steeped in corruption can be found in its constitution,
which was written by Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the 1979
revolution. Khomeini wrote the constitution to give himself and any
future Supreme Leader with almost unlimited powers.

Khomeini's constitution is almost completely lacking in the kinds of
checks and balances that the US Constitution is full of -- three
branches of government, with each branch given specific powers that
can be curtailed by other branches of government. Iran has an
Assembly of Experts that is supposed to provide oversight to the
Supreme Leader, but it never has seriously performed that function.
The way the constitution is set up, with no real checks and balances,
the only way to succeed in government is to be more corrupt than
anyone else. Radio Farda (24-Feb) and Bloomberg and Fox News

****
**** The international demand for regime change in Iran
****

There is a great desire in the West for something called "regime
change" in Iran, although it's rarely specified what that means.

Regime change did occur in America in 1974, with the forced
resignation of Richard Nixon. The current Supreme Leader is Sayyid
Ali Hosseini Khamenei, 79 years old, born 1939. Many people are
hoping that he'll be replaced soon, although he might live for another
10-15 years. But would that qualify as "regime change"?

Corruption is thoroughly embedded in Iran because corruption is almost
demanded by the constitution for survival in government. Real regime
change would require a new constitution. Perhaps the Assembly of
Experts might form a "Constitutional Convention," like the one in
America in 1787, and lock the participants in a room and not let them
up until they come up with a new constitution for Iran, filled with
checks and balances. However, there's little hope for that. In fact,
any real regime change may not come for many years.

For almost 15 years, I've been saying, based on a Generational
Dynamics analysis, that that Iran will be America's ally in the coming
Clash of Civilizations world war.

This can be seen by connecting the dots. China is very closely allied
with Pakistan, which is very closely allied with the Sunni states,
including Saudi Arabia. China and India are bitter enemies, as are
Pakistan and India. Russia and India are very closely allied, and
India is very closely allied with Iran, as Hindus have been allied
with Shia Muslims going back to the Battle of Karbala in 680. So the
US is going to be allied with India, Russia and Iran, versus China,
Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim states. Just remember that Russia was
our bitter enemy before WW II, was our ally during WW II, and was our
bitter enemy after WW II. You can't make judgments from today's
fatuous political alignments to how nations will act when they're
forced to make hard choices in the context of a generational crisis
war. These major decisions are made by the populations, large
generations of people, not by a few politicians when a nation and its
way of life are threatened.

So that's a brief summary of the geopolitical linkages. But there's
another way we know that Iran will be an American ally. Iran's
college students have been holding pro-American and pro-Western
protests for almost 20 years, starting with the first major protest in
1999. The Iranian regime brutally and violently ended those protests,
but they didn't change minds. Today, those college students are 30-40
years old, moving into positions of power. When the time comes and
Iranians are forced to choose, they'll decide that they'll have no
choice but to side with America and the West. CNBC and Fox News and Slate

Related Articles

• Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets (01-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Massive Tehran riots strike deep into Iran government's legitimacy (26-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Two protesters killed in southern Iran in latest violent clashes with police (19-May-2018)
  
  
• Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran (30-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Tens of thousands protest in Tehran after Rafsanjani says Iran is 'in crisis' (18-Jul-2009)
  
  
• Iranian police swoop down on women with loose headscarves (25-Apr-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics,
Generational Dynamics, Iran, Tehran,
Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, Ruhollah Khomeini,
European Union, Germany, Daimler,
France, Total, Renault, Peugeot,
China Dongfeng Fengshen, Iran Khodro, Chery, Brilliance

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Aug-18 World View -- Italy threatens EU with immigration fight to get budget concessions

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Italy threatens EU with immigration fight to get budget concessions
  
• Spain becomes the major destination for migrants from Africa
  

****
**** Italy threatens EU with immigration fight to get budget concessions
****


Migrants disembark at a beach in Tarifa, southern Spain, after crossing the Strait of Gibraltar (Spiegel)

Readers may recall that when Italy held nationwide elections in March,
the elections failed to produce a majority party. Two particularly
bitter rivals were the left-wing Five Star Movement (M5S) that got 32%
of the vote, and the right-wing La Lega (The League) that got 17% of
the vote.

Incredibly, these two parties got together and formed a governing
coalition. They're far apart on many issues, but they do share
similar attitudes on three issues: a nationalistic anti-euro attitude,
a xenophobic anti-immigrant attitude, and a complete lack of fiscal
discipline. Much to everyone's surprise, they formed a governing
coalition based on these three principles.

This new governing coalition announced a list of policy proposals,
including a completely
delusional list of economic proposals.

Italian debt stands at around &euro;2.3 trillion ($2.7 trillion), or
133% of gross domestic product (GDP), the worst in Europe. The new
government does have a way of reducing the debt: spend a lot more
money, and drastically reduce taxes. (As I wrote at the time, I wish
I could tell you that this is a joke, but it isn't.)

Specifically, the government would like to do the following
right away:

• Sharply cut taxes to a flat tax of 15-20%.
  
• Give everyone a guaranteed free basic income of &euro;780 ($922)
  per month.
  
• Increase pension benefits by substantially reducing the retirement
  age.

As wonderful as these proposals are, they have a serious problem:
Implementing them would violate EU rules by pushing Italy's annual
deficit above 3% of GDP.

Italy's deputy prime minister and M5S leader Luigi Di Maio has a
solution: The EU should change the rules, so that Italy can
spend as much as it wants on these social problems. According
to Di Maio:

<QUOTE>"It is possible to introduce both this measure and a
flat tax and to respect European Union deficit limits, because
this is a structural reform for Italy. The European Union must
listen to us in this phase when we want to protect citizens facing
a social emergency."<END QUOTE>

He added that his request to change the EU deficit limit rules
comes with a threat:

<QUOTE>"We want to discuss these reforms with the European
Union to obtain the margin for maneuver that will allow us to
implement those measures. That means doing the same as we did on
immigration. There shouldn’t be a clash with the EU, but a frank
discussion."<END QUOTE>

In the case of immigration, the "frank discussion" was accompanied by
an order closing all Italian ports to immigrant rescue ships. This
forced the EU government in Brussels to adopt new rules for
immigrants, giving Italy at least a portion of what it was demanding.
Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, leader of La Lega, claimed that his
government had gotten 70% of what it wanted from the EU.

So Di Maio is demanding that the EU change its deficit rules, or Italy
will "do the same as we did on immigration." What that means
remains to be seen.

It should be noted that Di Maio's delusional plans and demands are not
being met with unanimous agreement even within Italy's government.
Prime minister Giuseppe Conte is insisting on a "realistic" budget,
and that the new measures will be introduced gradually. Bloomberg and Reuters and Bloomberg and Guardian (London)


****
**** Spain becomes the major destination for migrants from Africa
****

At first, the major route for migrants into Europe was through Turkey
into Greece. When the EU closed the so-called "Balkan route" for
migrants, and then signed the EU-Turkey migrant deal in 2016, the
number of migrants reaching Greece fell sharply.

Then the major route moved westward, with migrants crossing the
Mediterranean Sea from Libya to Africa. However, in 2017
Italy paid money to Libyan warlords and the Libyan government to
prevent migrants from crossing.

So the preferred route to Europe has moved westward again. The number
of migrants crossing the Mediterranean from Africa to Europe has
fallen drastically from previous years, but now the major route is to
cross the strait between Morocco and Spain.

So far in 2018, 27,614 migrants arrived in Spain, 18,475 arrived in
Italy, and 16,142 arrived in Greece. Der Spiegel and El País and Euro News and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

• European markets in turmoil over Italy's unbridled spending proposals (23-May-2018)
  
  
• Bank run worsens Italy's banking crisis (28-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Italy's migration policy opens up battle lines within the EU (17-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Spain's offer to take in Aquarius migrants is rejected as dangerous to migrants (12-Jun-2018)
  
  
• EU migrant crisis moves to Italy as Austria begins closing border (13-Apr-2016)
  
  
• France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses (16-Jun-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy,
Five-Star Movement, M5S, Luigi Di Maio,
La Lega, The (Northern) League, Matteo Salvini.
Giuseppe Conte, Turkey, Greece, Balkan Route,
Libya, Spain, Morocco, Gibraltar

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Aug-18 World View -- Discontent with China's president Xi Jinping continues during 'trade war'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Discontent with China's president Xi Jinping continues during 'trade war'
  
• Backlash from the US-China 'trade war'
  
• China uses increasing violence to suppress criticism
  

****
**** Discontent with China's president Xi Jinping continues during 'trade war'
****


China is banning the new film Christopher Robin because it contains the character Winnie the Pooh, which many Chinese online compare to Xi Jinping (Getty)

Although Xi Jinping's power and credibility as president of China and
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) does not seem to be threatened,
there are signs of growing discontent, especially under pressure from
the trade war initiated by the Trump administration.

Since coming to power in 2013, Xi Jinping has claimed to be champion
of the fight against corruption in the CCP. In line with that fight,
Xi has purged many government officials whom he accused of corruption,
but it always turned out that the purged officials were not his
strongest supporters, and the people who replaced them were all
indebted to Xi in some way. Thus the first against corruption for the
last five years has appeared more and more to be a purge of Xi's
political enemies -- which would itself be the ultimate form of
corruption.

Public or online criticism of Xi is de facto a crime in China.
A few months ago I told the story of how I repeatedly challenged a
Chinese troll to make even the tiniest criticism of Xi, or even to
reference an article in Chinese media that has any criticism of Xi.
He kept changing the subject, and finally I pointed out that if he did
criticize Xi, then he would be thrown into a pit, hung by his thumbs,
and have his tongue removed with a pair of pliers. Well, I was being
overly dramatic, but he would certainly have risked going to jail.

So it certainly was remarkable in February of this year when a leading
commentator and a prominent businessman openly criticized Xi for his
plan to amend the constitution so that he could run independent. Li
Datong, a former editor for the state-run China Youth Daily, wrote:
"If there are no term limits on a country's highest leader, then we
are returning to an imperial regime. My generation has lived through
Mao. That era is over. How can we possibly go back to it?"

Indeed, I've written about country after country to describe what
happens when a leader refuses to relinquish power. We've seen this in
Cambodia, Syria, Iran, Cameroon, Congo, and Burundi, among others. In
each case, the leader becomes increasing authoritarian and oppressive,
ordering peaceful opposition protesters to be slaughtered, tortured,
raped or jailed, and shutting down media outlets including newspapers
and the internet.

Xi's claim to be the hero in fighting corruption has been badly
tarnished by various scandals. The piece of bad news this summer was
the discovery that a pharmaceutical company with deep connections to
Xi has been responsible for producing substandard vaccines for
diphtheria, tetanus and whooping cough, and had faked data for its
rabies vaccine. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese children nationwide
have been given the faulty vaccines. Many in China are blaming Xi for
this. Japan Times and CBS News and South China Morning Post (6-Mar)

****
**** Backlash from the US-China 'trade war'
****

The greatest damage to Xi's reputation is the "trade war" initiated by
the Trump administration. The US announced tariffs on Chinese
products, and China retaliated with tariffs on American products. The
tit for tat war has shocked many Chinese, and has triggered a major
debate in China over Xi's foreign and domestic policy leadership.

Many in China are questioning Xi's absolute refusal to negotiate with
the Americans to get the trade dispute resolved. Many fear that China
will indeed be much worse off from a full-blown trade war. There's a
deeper criticism that Xi is violating the advice of 1980s leader Deng
Xiaoping: "Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs
calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining
a low profile; and never claim leadership." Since taking power,
instead of taking this advice, Xi has been increasingly arrogant
foreign policy, and his policies are seen as costly, ambitious, risky
and confrontational.

Many Chinese also fear that China has become too dependent on stealing
American intellectual property, and can't develop it on their own.

Xi has reacted by ordering an extensive campaign to "enhance
patriotism" among intellectuals. A key aspect is to strengthen the
“political guidance” of intellectuals and bring their “ideological and
political identification” in line with goals set out by the party and
the nation.

There are even demands that CCP members get back to basics and study
Karl Marx's 1848 Communist Manifesto, the tract that predicted the
triumph of Socialism. Socialism has a 100% failure rate, and China
abandoned any pretense of following the dictates of Communist
Manifesto decades ago. Even Cuba in the last few years has almost
completely abandoned the Marx's tenets, since it was becoming clear
that Socialism was destroying Cuba, as it has destroyed every other
place it's been tried. Most CCP members, it turns out, have never
read the Communist Manifesto, so ordering them to read it now appears
to be a true move of desperation. South China Morning Post and Inside Story (Australia) and Radio Free Asia and South China Morning Post

****
**** China uses increasing violence to suppress criticism
****

As in the other countries I've listed, Cambodia, Syria, Cameroon, and
so forth, the CCP in China is using violence increasingly to control
groups that don't adhere closely to the party line. Whether it's
violent reprisals in Tibet, or violent education camps in Xinjiang, or
the threat of a massive military invasion of Taiwan, the CCP have
shown themselves increasingly willing to use jailings, torture, rape
and murder to force the public into the CCP line.

Two major events occurred about 25 years ago that are the driving
forces in CCP policy today. One was the Tiananmen Square massacre on
June 4, 1989, where Chinese security thugs killed thousands of
peacefully demonstrating college students. The other event was the
collapse, in 1991, of the Soviet Union and the Soviet Communist Party.
These events put the members of the Chinese Communist Party into a
high state of anxiety, from which they've never come down. They use
massive violence by police thugs to suppress any protests before they
can get out of hand and threaten the existence of the CCP.
Self-preservation of the CCP is more important the China itself.

China's government used to report the number of "mass incidents that
occurred each year. These are incidents where dozens of Chinese
citizens protest or get into fistfights with one another. There were
hundreds of these protests each year in the 1990s. The number of mass
incidents kept growing exponentially, reaching 100,000 in the year
2008. If even one of these "mass incidents" occurred in the United
States, it would be international news, but China has hundreds of them
every day.

After 2008, China stopped reporting them. However, there was one
activist named Lu Yuyu who compiled the data himself from news
reports, and published it online. He was arrested and is currently
serving time in jail.

China's CCP is frightened of social instability that could lead to a
revolution that would threaten the CCP. China's history is filled
with huge, massive internal rebellions (civil wars), the most recent
of which were the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805), the Taiping
Rebellion (1850-64) and Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49). China
is now overdue for a new massive civil war, and CCP officials fear
that any small anti-government protest could spiral into a new
rebellion and revolution. Guardian (London) and China Change (6-Jul-2016) and Foreign Affairs (3-Oct-2016) and Hong Kong Free Press

Related Articles

• China on path to repeat Japan's experience after Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 (05-Apr-2018)
  
  
• The Trump-Putin private meeting was almost certainly about China (21-Jul-2018)
  
  
• How China would lose a war with the United States (22-Mar-2018)
  
  
• 28-Feb-10 News - China faces social unrest disaster (28-Feb-2010)
  
  
• China approaches Civil War (16-Jan-2005)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xi Jinping,
Chinese Communist Party, CCP,
Karl Marx, Communist Manifesto, Cuba,
Cambodia, Syria, Iran, Cameroon, Congo, Burundi,
Deng Xiaoping, Tiananmen Square,
Soviet Communist Party, mass incidents, Lu Yuyu,
White Lotus Rebellion, Taiping Rebellion, Communist Revolution

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Aug-18 World View -- Turkey's lira currency crumbles as Trump turns the screws after Erdogan double-cross

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey's lira currency crumbles as Trump turns the screws after Erdogan double-cross
  
• Trump turns the screws
  
• How Erdogan apparently double-crossed Trump
  

****
**** Turkey's lira currency crumbles as Trump turns the screws after Erdogan double-cross
****


Presidents Trump and Erdogan shaking hands when they were still friendly (Reuters)

Turkey's lira currency has been falling steadily for the last year
because of a clearly stated view by Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan that interest rates are "evil," and because he has been
controlling Turkey's central bank consistent with that
belief.

The lira has already lost 40% of its value in the past month. On
Friday, the currency fell another 20%, before settling at being down
14% from Thursday's level.

The result is that any imported item now cost two or three times as
many liras as they did a few months ago. The inflation rate is
above 15%.

Many economists had been predicting for months that Erdogan's actions
would lead to a currency crisis, which is what's happening now. There
are concerns that unless Erdogan adopts sensible policies, the result
will be a full-scale national economic crisis.

During the campaign for the June 24 elections, Erdogan said the
following:

<QUOTE>"If my people say continue on this path in the
elections, I say I will emerge with victory in the fight against
this curse of interest rates. Because my belief is: interest
rates are the mother and father of all evil."<END QUOTE>

In July he appointed his son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, to run the
central bank, and said, "We will see inflation and interest rates
decline in the coming period."

These statements caused concern among investors for two reasons.
First, an interest rate decline will cause higher inflation, not lower
inflation, and combined with his statement that interest rates are
"the mother and father of all evil," it's reasonable to conclude that
Erdogan does not have the vaguest clue how economics works.

We've seen this kind of thing in other countries. In Venezuela, Hugo
Chávez and Nicolás Maduro followed and are following policies which
have meant economic destruction for their country. In Zimbabwe,
Robert Mugabe's policy of throwing white farmers off farms and giving
the farms to political cronies who know nothing about farms ended up
destroying Zimbabwe's economy, and it's unclear whether this policy is
still continuing. I've written about many other examples where a
clueless idiot leader politician destroys a country's economy and the
country itself.

That hasn't happened to Turkey yet, but Erdogan has become so
fanatical that it will if he continues the path he's on.

The second reason that investors are concerned is that Erdogan seems
determined to control the central bank even though it should be an
independent institution, like America's Federal Reserve. So now you
have delusional politician, Erdogan, who says that "interest rates are
the mother and father of all evil," and is also running the central
bank. What could go wrong?

So that's why the lira currency has been falling steadily for a year,
and then started falling even more rapidly after the June 24 election,
when he was reelected president, along with a constitutional change
that gave him almost dictatorial powers.
Hurriyet (Ankara) and Business Insider and Deutsche Welle

****
**** Trump turns the screws
****

So there have been an interesting series of statements from both
Erdogan and US president Donald Trump in the last couple of days.

On Thursday evening, Erdogan that there was nothing to fear if the
lira was falling against the US dollar:

<QUOTE>"If they have their dollars, we have our people and
God."<END QUOTE>

However, on Friday morning, Trump tweeted the following:

<QUOTE>"I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel
and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish
Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar!
Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey
are not good at this time!"<END QUOTE>

This caused the lira to start plummeting, ending up the day having
lost 14% of its value.

Erdogan apparently went into a panic, because he gave one of his
televised national rants where he screams every sentence furiously at
the top of his lungs. He said the following:

<QUOTE>"If there is anyone who has dollars or gold under
their pillows, they should go exchange it for liras at our
banks. This is a national, domestic battle.

Some countries have engaged in behavior that protects coup
plotters and knows no laws or justice. Relations with countries
who behave like this have reached a point beyond
salvaging."<END QUOTE>

Erdogan also warned of “economic war.”

However, there is a greater concern that the falling lira will lead to
contagion. A number of banks, especially in Spain and Italy, are
holding Turkish government bonds, and they are going down in value
with the lira. A bigger concern is that many companies in Turkey have
borrowed money in international markets, and the debts are denominated
in dollars. A typical company's income would be in lira, while debt
payments must be made in dollars. A weakening lira means that
companies may default on their loans.
CNBC and Hurriyet News (Ankara) and Bloomberg

****
**** How Erdogan apparently double-crossed Trump
****

A lot of people were shocked on Friday morning at the harshness of
Trump's tweet when he said that he was doubling Turkey's tariffs on
steel and aluminum, and at the same time he apparently mocked Turkey's
falling lira currency.

It appears that this highly confrontational statement was retaliation
for what Trump saw as a double-cross by Erdogan.

Trump met Erdogan at a Nato meeting early in June. Their discussions
were very friendly, and after they ended, Trump thought they had made
a deal: Trump would ask Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to
release a Turkish citizen, Ebru Ozkan, arrested because of alleged
terrorist links to Hamas, and then Turkey would release pastor Andrew
Brunson, who was arrested in Turkey on October 2016 on charges of
espionage, which the US considers are bogus charges.

So on July 14, Trump called Netanyahu and requested that Ozkan be
released, and she was released the next day. But Brunson was not
released, and Turkish officials said that no such deal had ever been
made. Instead, they began piling more demands that would have to be
met in exchange for the release of Brunson, including the extradition
of Fethullah Gülen, whom Erdogan blames for the attempted coup in
Turkey in 2016, but without any evidence.

Needless to say, Trump was infuriated, and this led to a first round
of sanctions in July, and then Friday's announcement of more
sanctions. The Trump administration is now saying that Brunson must
be released, to resolve this situation. Furthermore, reports indicate
that because Trump believes he was double-crossed, the administration
is also requiring that all further conditions and demands from Turkey
be put into writing, to avoid future misunderstandings.

Trump is now involved in highly contentious sanctions disputes with
Turkey, Russia, Iran and China. Any one of these situations could
spiral into something much larger, including an actual war.
Also, since the global financial system is currently one huge Ponzi
scheme, one of these situations could also trigger a chain reaction
leading to a global financial crisis.
Washington Post and Hurriyet News (Ankara) and Ynet News (Israel) and Middle East eye

Related Articles:

• Turkey's government takes control of last remaining independent news source (23-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Relations between Germany and Turkey spiral into crisis (21-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media (06-Mar-2016)
  
  
• More than a million of secularists rally in Turkey (14-May-2007)
  
  
• Turkey debates Islam versus secularism (26-Feb-2010)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Berat Albayrak, Benjamin Netanyahu, Ebru Ozkan,
Andrew Brunson

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

Islamic countries generally handle money badly. The Koran proscribes interest on loans. Although Muslim businessmen have always found ways to get some ways to achieve gain from any time-based contracts, those means are not clever enough for dealing with the costs of borrowing from non-Islamic bankers. If there is a big project and local capital is scarce (remember: Islamic countries as a rule handle money badly), then any mistakes or failed government policies can lead to financial disaster.

I am not surprised that Trump and Erdogan have had a falling-out. Neither is trustworthy.

[John J. Xenakis]

(08-11-2018, 10:46 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Islamic countries generally handle money badly. The Koran
> proscribes interest on loans. Although Muslim businessmen have
> always found ways to get some ways to achieve gain from any
> time-based contracts, those means are not clever enough for
> dealing with the costs of borrowing from non-Islamic bankers. If
> there is a big project and local capital is scarce (remember:
> Islamic countries as a rule handle money badly), then any mistakes
> or failed government policies can lead to financial disaster.

> I am not surprised that Trump and Erdogan have had a
> falling-out. Neither is trustworthy.

Trump is usually bitterly accused, by leftists like yourself, of
actually keeping his campaign promises, especially for policies they
don't like - cutting taxes, cutting regulations, lower unemployment
rate for blacks, border wall, ending Obamacare, and so forth, so you
can't have it both ways, accusing him of keeping his promises when you
don't like his promises, and then out of the blue calling him
untrustworthy.

Besides that, your entire assumption is wrong. Two untrustworthy
people often get along very well. This is similar to the concept of
"honor among thieves." Putin and Xi get along well because each one
knows the other is lying, but feels comfortable with it because
they're both liars. In the case of Trump and Erdogan, however, the
issue is that Trump is trustworthy and Erdogan is not. That's why
Trump is now insisting that everything Erdogan wants should now be put
into writing. It's when one person is trustworthy and the other is a
liar that two people have a falling out.

[pbrower2a]

I can't see what you find so marvelous about Donald Trump. Is it that he seems charmed, able to get away with things that others wouldn't dream of getting away with? Mobster John Gotti was like that for some years.

Class privilege is a reality in America, and it is intensifying every year. Decent people who have it do not use it as a pretext to do horrible things to people. Even if the industry is different, Donald Trump is a real-life J. R. Ewing, the sort of plutocrat whose every dealing is a burn of someone else.

Good people do not brag about grabbing women by their crotches. I understand such behavior as "sexual assault", which is good for prison time. Put me on a jury, and this "leftist" will vote to convict someone of rape if penetration is proved. Good people do not mock people who have endured any misfortune, whether having some form of autism or having been shot down by the North Vietnamese while serving America as a naval aviator. He showed no remorse about children of illegal immigrants being taken from their parents and warehoused, which is disgusting. Good people do not mock people of some 'wrong' religion who happen to have lost a son in warfare for his country. Good people do not excuse bad causes with the statement that there are good people in the cause. Anyone who admires a Pol Pot or a Che Guevara has a problem just as much as does someone who admires Adolf Hitler or Saddam Hussein. Our President has a rather low level of moral development or what is called in pop psychology, "emotional intelligence". We do not need our political leaders to be Francis of Assisi, but we can't afford Donald Trump.

Good leaders choose associates who do not get involved in scandals, and they create no culture of corruption. For all that you may say about Barack Obama, his administration was scandal free. Guess what? When he was President, Republicans had few scandals. That could be coincidence, but it could also be that if law enforcement is finding nothing questionable about the administration, then maybe it can persuade people in the other Party to do nothing stupid.

Donald Trump would be a horrible President if he did this in the name of boilerplate liberal ideology. We have never seen so much disgusting behavior by any President of either Party, liberal or conservative.

Please, John -- stop the labeling! The tariffs are already trouble, and they will not make things better. Sure, there are people doing things to beat the tariffs, which is good for one-time spikes in retail sales, but that will have a long hard time following it. When it comes to personal alliances with leaders, I prefer that our President not get chummy with people who snip off sections of their neighbors' land or attack opponents with poisons and nuclear isotopes. Even from a conservative standpoint, Donald Trump is awful.

Ideas are bad not because of who has them but on their own merits. Ideas are not good or bad because of their position on the political spectrum. Abolition of slavery was once a far-Left position. Conservatives had no qualms, eighty years after the abolition of slavery in America and seventy years after the abolition of slavery in Brazil, to execute Fritz Sauckel, the Nazi official who was the biggest slave-trafficker of all time, largely for enslaving conquered peoples in the Nazi empire.

The idea that crime is largely a moral failure than a consequence of poverty was a conservative proposition until 'community organizers' such as Barack Obama found that there were good people worthy of trust in the nastiest ghettos and that there were criminals not to be trusted under any circumstances -- and that the difference was not that one group was better-off to begin with. The criminals in the ghettos were not going over to more prosperous areas where the opportunities for crime were better; they were largely victimizing fellow poor people. The good people from impoverished areas were taking the twenty-mile one-way commutes to get to jobs in suburbia in retailing and restaurant work that paid close to the minimum wage. I have seen morning commutes in Greater Detroit, and the traffic jams are in both directions: people headed downtown, and people headed from the wrecked zones to the suburbs where the fast food and convenience-store employment is.

OK, extremists are usually trouble-makers. But so are cranks, crooks, and sadists in positions of power even if they have insinuated themselves into the Establishment.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Aug-18 World View -- Colombia's president Ivan Duque takes office amidst accusations from Venezuela

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Colombia's president Ivan Duque takes office amidst accusations from Venezuela
  
• Brief generational history of Colombia
  

****
**** Colombia's president Ivan Duque takes office amidst accusations from Venezuela
****


Venezuelans walk across Simón Bolívar bridge into Cúcuta, Colombia to flee violence from the Socialist government. (National Geographic)

A new president took office in Colombia on Tuesday of last
week. Right-wing Ivan Duque took office, replacing left-wing
Juan Manuel Santos. The inauguration occurred in the midst
of a major diplomatic clash between Colombia and Venezuela.

Last weekend on Saturday evening, a live drama unfolded on nationwide
TV in Venezuela. Socialist President Nicolás Maduro, was giving a
televised speech when suddenly he stopped speaking and looked up at
the sky. Two drones armed with explosives detonated near Maduro, who,
however, was not hurt. Three hours later, he was on nationwide tv
again, saying:

<QUOTE>"I am fine, I am alive, and after this attack I'm more
determined than ever to follow the path of the revolution. ... I
have no doubt that the name Juan Manuel Santos is behind this
attack."<END QUOTE>

According to Maduro, Santos acted in coordination with the former
president of the Venezuelan Parliament, Julio Borges, who had
been in the political opposition to Maduro.

Last year, the Socialist Maduro dissolved the democratically
elected parliament and replaced with a "Constituent Assembly"
consisting of Maduro's political cronies. Last week, the Constituent
Assembly revoked the immunity that Borges had as an opposition
lawmaker, and the Supreme Court called for his arrest. However,
Borges has apparently fled Venezuela. According to Maduro, Borges had
fled to Colombia.

Now Maduro is demanding that Colombia and the United States extradite
Borges and other opposition lawmakers that have fled to those
countries. These extradition requests have been refused.

On Thursday, the European Union in Brussels issued a statement
on the drone attack:

<QUOTE>"The latest events have further inflated the tensions
in Venezuela. The European Union rejects any form of violence and
expects that a comprehensive and transparent investigation of
Saturday´s drone attack is conducted to establish the facts, in
full respect for the rule of law and for human rights.

In this regard, the EU expects the recognition of the National
Assembly's constitutional powers, including the full respect of
its prerogatives concerning the parliamentary immunity of its
members, in line with established constitutional rights,
legislation and procedures.

The EU reiterates its support for a negotiated, democratic and
peaceful solution for the multiple crises affecting the country as
the only way forward. This needs to encompass a return to
constitutional normality restoring democratic process and the rule
of law, respect for fundamental rights and freedoms, release of
all political prisoners, and addressing the pressing humanitarian
needs of the population."<END QUOTE>

This statement infuriated Maduro. According to Maduro , Santos acted
in coordination with Borges, "who receives the order, the resources,
the logistics, the support and the plan [and] is the one who takes
responsibility for the history of assassinating the president."

Maduro condemned the statement by the EU:

<QUOTE>"It is truly deplorable the communique of the European
Union, they go out to protect the terrorists, in their communiqué
they protect the terrorists, in their communique they are not
capable of condemning the attack that had as objective to
assassinate the president of this country."<END QUOTE>

Thanks to Socialist policies, Venezuela is suffering the worst
economic depression ever recorded in Latin America. The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates gross domestic product (GDP) contracted
by 16.5 percent in 2016 and 12 percent in 2017, and forecasts a 15
percent contraction for 2018. Inflation reached more than 2,600
percent in 2017, the highest in the world by a wide margin, and the
IMF forecasts 13,000 percent for 2018.

Thanks to the Socialist policies, Venezuelans are starving, and are
unable to feed their kids or obtain medicines to care for them when
they're sick. The Socialist government of Venezuela has created a
massive refugee problem that's destabilizing the entire region. By
some estimates, 35,000 Venezuelan refugees flee across the border into
Colombia every day, although many return after acquiring basic items,
like food. Some one million are staying in Colombia. About 4,000
migrants enter Ecuador every day, fleeing violence in Venezuela.
Brazil has taken in over 41,000 Venezuelans.

Every Socialist government in history has failed, either peacefully or
disastrously. Even Cuba has given up Socialism. The only two
Socialist governments left are Venezuela and North Korea. However,
Venezuela destabilizing the entire region, and with Maduro making
threatening accusations like the one last week, it's possible that
Venezuela's Socialist government will end with war. AFP and Europa (EU) and Diario Las Americas (Trans) and Al Jazeera

****
**** Brief generational history of Colombia
****

The Trump administration has high hopes for Ivan Duque, because Duque
has promised to tackle the drug problem. Last year, president Trump
suggested stopping aid to countries that are "pouring" drugs into the
US. In Colombia, some 209,000 hectares (516,500 acres) of land are
used to grow coca, the principal ingredient used to manufacture
cocaine. Colombia is the largest cocaine producer in the world.

Colombia's last generational crisis war was shared with Venezuela. It
was called "La Violencia," or the Colombian Revolt, 1948-1959. More
than 200,000 persons lost their lives and more than a billion dollars
of property damage was done.

As we've written many times in the past, when a generational crisis
war is an ethnic or tribal civil war, it really never ends. One side
may force the other into submission, but the people on both sides are
traumatized by the murders, mutilations, rapes, and torturing that
they performed on people who lived in the same cities and even on the
same streets, where the mothers exchanged recipes and the children
played together. All the survivors continue to feel the lingering
horror of the atrocities that were committed on both sides. After the
war ends, there is continuing sporadic violence as we've described in
many countries, including Syria, Cambodia, Cameroon, Burundi, Congo,
and others.

In post-war Colombia, the government confiscated small farms in
order to create large farms, but in doing so left large pools
of unemployed people.

By the mid-1960s. two Marxist-Leninist guerrilla terrorist groups had
formed: the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Las Fuerzas
Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – FARC) and the National
Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – ELN). Both groups
have massive criminal histories, using drug trafficking, violence,
bombings, murders, kidnappings for ransom, and extortion as sources of
leverage and income. Billions of dollars of income have been derived
from the sale of narcotics each year. In the last 50 years, as many
as 220,000 people are dead, 25,000 are disappeared, and 5.7 million
are displaced.

In December 2016, the government signed a peace agreement with the
FARC. The agreement ended much of the violence, but it was highly
controversial because it specified that all FARC members would walk
free with no punishment for the 50 years of horrific crimes, which
infuriated the relatives of the violence by the FARC. Duque made a
campaign promise to revise and renegotiate the peacekeeping deal to
provide for the relatives of the victims.

Duque has also promised to fix the drug problem:

<QUOTE>"We will be effective in the eradication and
substitution of illegal crops, accompanied by productive
opportunities [for farmers]."<END QUOTE>

That remains to be seen. Other attempts to reduce coca production have
failed. Coca production surged to historically high levels in 2017,
and among the reasons is a crop-substitution program tied to
Colombia’s peace deal that offered incentives to coca farmers to
switch to legal crops. Those incentives were so lucrative that some
rural dwellers planted more coca to earn more cash. In addition,
Colombia in 2015 banned aerial spraying of coca crops after a
determination that the herbicide being used could cause cancer in
humans. Duque is committed to be much more aggressive, including a
return to using the banned herbicide. Stanford Univ and Insight Crime and Council on Foreign Relations (11-Jan-2017) and Washington Post

Related articles:

• Colombia and Brazil close borders with Venezuela amid talk of possible military intervention (14-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Venezuela threatens to close borders with Colombia and Dutch territories (10-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Russia considers taking on a huge financial burden - Venezuela (05-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Venezuela's economic crisis is hitting Cuba hard (06-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Students riot against Hugo Chavez in Venezuela (30-May-2007)
  
  
• Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise (29-May-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Colombia, Ivan Duque, Jose Manuel Santos,
Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, Julio Borges, La Violencia,
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia,
Las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, FARC,
National Liberation Army, Ejército de Liberación Nacional, ELN

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

I did not realize that Maduro was even worse than Chavez. I had believed that Maduro was simply maintaining the same cranky socialism that Chavez supported. Short of going fully the route of Fidel Castro, what could be worse?

I have frequently compared Trump to Chavez for demagoguery and for contempt for nearly half the American population for holding ideas contrary to his. Both the late Hugo Chavez and the very-much-alive Donald Trump have been treating opposition as scapegoats. I expect Donald Trump to get similar consequences to those of Hugo Chavez due to cronyism and his assault on media that hold him in contempt. I see Donald Trump as similarly authoritarian, and even if he is as anti-proletarian as most Republicans, he is willing to use Big Government to support his backers and cronies. Donald Trump is a warning about socialistic Big Government -- everyone is for it as long as it gives the goodies, but when socialistic Big Government becomes the enemy it is a monstrosity.

Maduro may not quite be as bad as Castro. But should Donald Trump have a successor who chooses to carry out the Trump revolution -- and Trump is a revolutionary in the sense that Hugo Chavez is -- then the successor could be far worse than Donald Trump. Christian and Corporatist?

Donald Trump is neither a conservative or a libertarian. He is a right-wing socialist. Heck, Obama at the least sold off the government share in 'receivership socialism'.

[John J. Xenakis]

(08-11-2018, 08:33 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I can't see what you find so marvelous about Donald Trump. Is it
> that he seems charmed, able to get away with things that others
> wouldn't dream of getting away with? Mobster John Gotti was like
> that for some years.

(08-12-2018, 05:18 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I have frequently compared Trump to Chavez for demagoguery and for
> contempt for nearly half the American population for holding ideas
> contrary to his. Both the late Hugo Chavez and the very-much-alive
> Donald Trump have been treating opposition as scapegoats.

It's not just Trump you that you hate. You also feel the same way
about the 60 million people who voted for Trump. For you, all 60
million people are in Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables --
racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic — you name it."
So your claim that your attitude is about Trump is, as far as I'm
concerned, a lie. What does it say about you that you feel morally
superior to 60 million people, when you obviously aren't?

This has been going on for years. Several times in the last ten years
I quoted main Obama union supporter James Hoffa as calling for war
against the Tea Party and other political opponents of Labor
organizations, saying: "We are ready to march. Let’s take these sons
of bitches out and give America back to an America where we belong."

The mainstream media frequently and openly referred to Tea Partiers as
"teabaggers," which is just as vile and racist as the n-word.

So you should look to yourself before you blame others. You're just
as bad as the KKK, and in fact you use many of the same words. They
target the blacks, and you target the 60 million Tea Partiers and
Trump supporters. Other than that, you and your people are no
different than the KKK. The same hate speech. The same violence and
incitement to violence. The same delusional world views. The same
sense of moral superiority to people many of whom are obviously
morally superior to you. You and the KKK are almost identical.

For more information on my views on American xenophobia, see the
article I wrote about in 2010, long before Trump ran for president:

** American xenophobia on the Left and on the Right
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e101107

[pbrower2a]

(08-12-2018, 11:14 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(08-11-2018, 08:33 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   I can't see what you find so marvelous about Donald Trump. Is it
>   that he seems charmed, able to get away with things that others
>   wouldn't dream of getting away with? Mobster John Gotti was like
>   that for some years.

(08-12-2018, 05:18 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   I have frequently compared Trump to Chavez for demagoguery and for
>   contempt for nearly half the American population for holding ideas
>   contrary to his. Both the late Hugo Chavez and the very-much-alive
>   Donald Trump have been treating opposition as scapegoats.

It's not just Trump you that you hate.  You also feel the same way
about the 60 million people who voted for Trump.  For you, all 60
million people are in Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables --
racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic — you name it."
So your claim that your attitude is about Trump is, as far as I'm
concerned, a lie.  What does it say about you that you feel morally
superior to 60 million people, when you obviously aren't?

Yes, I loathe President Trump. The 60 million who voted for him? Everybody is capable of serious misjudgments. Trump exploited some blind spots in people's minds. There's plenty about which Americans can be uncomfortable, like seeing what looks like their greater competence and effort -- including more hours at work if they must take second jobs to get by -- and figuring that if that is all so, they need a huge change.

So what is it? Food is not getting more expensive unless people insist upon 'organic' food. Electronic stuff has become less expensive in the sense of more bang for the buck; heck, if one were to bring a small Android ® device by time machine back to NASA in the 1960s, NASA would have been delighted. Motor fuels have basically kept up with inflation, as has all but one thing not-high-tech. Property rent? There it is!

I look at the map, and I notice that Donald Trump -- who above all else is a landlord -- is highly unpopular in those urban areas (including in such cities as Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Miami, Raleigh, Charlotte, Atlanta, New Orleans, Cleveland, Columbus, Detroit, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Memphis, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio) in states that voted for Trump where the rents are insanely high or the housing stock is awful -- or both. If you own your own home, Donald Trump is just another capitalist. If you are a renter, your favorite capitalists (if you aren't a full-blown Commie) are not landlords.  You probably see your landlord fleecing cash cows -- like you. That makes a huge difference.

People can admire capitalists  and executives who provide innovative products or find ways to make things available less expensively. Maybe they can admire Bill Gates, Lee iacocca, Elon Musk, T. Boone Pickens, or (in the past) Sam Walton, Henry Ford, John D. Rockefeller, Milton Hershey, the Kellogg brothers, etc. Donald Trump is not an innovator; he is simply a gouger. They do not admire easy money, especially when it is associated with something that rhymes with "mass coal".

Donald Trump has said that he loves the slightly-educated because they vote for him. That says much about his appeal. He has won the gullible voter, the fellow to whom he seems like a normal person because of his vulgarity, the sort of vulgarity that one rarely sees in people who have college degrees. His style is that of the prole who won the Super-Duper Megabucks lottery, something that anyone who did well enough to get into a first-rate college or university does not buy into. The problem with Donald Trump is that he is a ruthless, cruel, rapacious, and selfish character -- and that his type invariably gives the shaft to the Common Man when he gets a chance. He is doing exactly that.

Quote:This has been going on for years.  Several times in the last ten years
I quoted main Obama union supporter James Hoffa as calling for war
against the Tea Party and other political opponents of Labor
organizations, saying: "We are ready to march.  Let’s take these sons
of bitches out and give America back to an America where we belong."

Regrettable, over-the-top language. But this said, Donald Trump really is harmful to children and other living things.

Quote:The mainstream media frequently and openly referred to Tea Partiers as
"teabaggers," which is just as vile and racist as the n-word.

They are now largely Trump supporters if they haven't come to the conclusion (too late for November 2016) that Donald Trump is a horrible person and that his economic policies are going to do great harm even to people who usually vote Republican out of a primary concern for taxes. I'm thinking of farmers and ranchers who ordinarily see themselves as cash cows for taxing authorities, whether federal, state, or local. When the trade war cuts their income, all the tax cuts in the world won't be worth the loss of income and raised costs of vehicle repairs to their electronic devices. The word "teabagger"? We don't need it anymore. The silly hats and the appropriateion of the Gadsden flag? No longer relevant.
.

Quote:So you should look to yourself before you blame others.  You're just
as bad as the KKK, and in fact you use many of the same words.  They
target the blacks, and you target the 60 million Tea Partiers and
Trump supporters.  Other than that, you and your people are no
different than the KKK.  The same hate speech.  The same violence and
incitement to violence.  The same delusional world views.  The same
sense of moral superiority to people many of whom are obviously
morally superior to you.  You and the KKK are almost identical.

The KKK? Hate speech? Ludicrous!  I have learned to modulate my language when I see someone with a Trump sticker. I saw someone with an obvious farm vehicle one day and expressed my concern that Donald Trump's trade war would hurt farmers like him. To avoid a repeat of the political disasters of 2010, 2014, and 2016 (and it is my prerogative to see those as disasters)  it is up to us liberals to make it as easy as possible for people who voted for "tea bag" pols in 2010 and 2014 and for Trump in 2016 to change their minds. People going to Trump rallies who hold up a middle finger and shout "F--- CNN!" are probably beyond reach. But those rallies are shrinking. Rallies like that were commonplace in Cuba under Fidel Castro, and they kept getting the large crowds. Sure -- the government was trucking school children to those rallies. Our Fidel cannot do that.

By the way -- Obama didn't hold those rallies when he had bigger concerns than having garish shows of his popularity among his base. Trump is the first American President to do this, and if we are fortunate he will be the only one to do so.

Quote:For more information on my views on American xenophobia, see the
article I wrote about in 2010, long before Trump ran for president:

** American xenophobia on the Left and on the Right
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e101107

Relevant then, but not now. Donald Trump has changed everything in American political life except demographics and the consequences of his policies. I predicted that he would be a catastrophic failure as President because he had done nothing to prepare himself for the unwritten responsibilities of the Presidency. His experience in business had little relevance to the Presidency. A software magnate or an oilman instead might be better for understanding  some  aspects of American life that someone who can operate with a rigid model of business as does Trump. Trump knew nothing about law, diplomacy, or military life, and he lacked the flexibility to understand them as does a President like Lincoln, FDR, or even Obama who has the intellectual flexibility to understand something outside his experience.

Donald Trump was excellent at riling angry and desperate people. They remain riled, and they can turn on him. He rides a tiger. He cannot escape the consequences of political failure and demographics that disfavor his pet constituency. The only positive that I see for him is that he has gotten the support, at least for a time, of the super-rich tycoons such as the Koch family. Whoops! They now see him as a Frankenstein monster.

Now for the generational aspect -- Donald Trump is a Boomer. Boomer elites are infamous for arrogance, selfishness, and ruthlessness. The worst of them fit the pattern of Southern slaveholders especially of the Transcendental generation, the sorts of people who insisted that they be seen as benefactors to the slaves that they exploited so severely. The worst also seem to resemble those educated people, mostly of the Missionary generation, who fell for the fad of eugenics and claimed that harsh measures would be good for the 'failed' peoples who would be cleansed of their deficiencies through some 1920s-era version of tough love.

So what is the connection between Transcendental, Missionary, and Boom elites? They lack a trait that Idealist non-elites get: humility. Most of the Boomer elite has not come up from poverty or even the middle class. Non-elites have had to develop the "suffer greatly, but always be sure to show that big, theatrical Happy to Serve You! smile" that one sees among restaurant help, convenience-store clerks, and hotel or motel staff who live in dire poverty or who see their work as a stepping stone to something better after they graduate from college and professional schools -- or skilled work or even factory work where one has no obligation to show such. Humility is not a way to fun; it is a survival skill for any subordinate. Boomers who have known any economic hardship cannot get away with being as arrogant as Donald Trump, in part because Boomers have generally not had the chance to rise in the environment of low and rigid glass ceilings that infest Corporate America.

I am sure that you will recognize that the Silent who were good at many things were very poor at starting businesses from scratch. New Silent businesses were typically professional practices with limited potential for institutional growth. The biggest 'job creators' that I notice among the Silent were the late Mike Illich (Little Caesar's Pizza) and the late Dave Thomas (Wendy's). Just what everyone with a college degree wants, right? A job in a fast-food place. Then there are T. Boone Pickens (oil), Ross Perot (government contracting, largely because federal and state governments have antiquated computers), Warren Buffett (buy-and-hold investment), Carl Icahn (insider trading), and John Gotti (organized crime).

The big early investors in the electronic industry when it was largely office equipment were GI or even Lost entrepreneurs. As the GI generation was fading out of economic life, the late wave of Boomers were going in, and the Silent businessmen not operating professional practices were mostly small-scale restaurateurs who were largely foreign-born business owners who got their help from within their families. Boomer elites were able to decide that anyone who ever experienced a hardship would not qualify for membership in the elites. If that wasted talent -- at least it means that one gets good help and ensures that competition is at bay.

When the Crisis Era gets deadly serious, then all those sleazy realities come to an end, whether because wise people make them impossible to continue or because those sleazy realities cause the System to collapse. A man whose initials are D as in Deplorable, J as in Judas, and T as in Tyrant is just the person to make this system fail. Yes, I hate him and his closest associates almost as much as I hate a mobster. The legal system that can take down John Gotti is doing much the same to Donald Trump. We have yet to see the result -- and that could be the focus of this Crisis of 2020.

[John J. Xenakis]

The worst bigots and hate groups are those that say that their bigotry
and vitriolic hatred are justified by "facts." That's what the KKK
thought. Any KKK member could have give you a million "reasons" and
"facts" why their violence and hatred are completely justified. Just
like you. Bigots and hate groups are all the same.

[pbrower2a]

I simply state my observations. I am a Boomer, and I have seen Boomers at their best and at the worst. So far, the elite Boomers have been the worst short of the likes of William Calley and Ted Bundy, or perhaps some mobster.

Do I not have a right to 'vitriolic' hatred of horrific crime? Formic acid (the acidic venom in ant bites) might be more appropriate than sulfuric acid against someone like Donald Trump. I have experienced the bites of fire ants -- and those are terrible. Maybe not lethal, but they are crippling for a day or two.

We have yet to see the full consequences of a Presidency that shows venomous contempt for anything with which the President disagrees. Even at the best it is three months before he has any possibility of mitigating his behavior.

Here's how I see it: President Trump is an unmitigated disaster. The next good conservative President will act more like Obama than like Trump. Maybe I need to show you a map of how I see the 2020 election. The polling data for President Trump is horrendous.
Can you recognize that Donald Trump is not political normality in America? We are in new and dangerous territory. Here be lions/dragons/the Kraken. I see President Trump's mobs on TV.

[pbrower2a]

I post frequently on a Forum on elections, and one thing I track is polling data for its relevance in predicting the next Presidential election. Here is approval of the President. I give highest priority to the most recent poll, as such may reflect a news item. Polls have been relatively stable for the President for about a year. The President has been remarkably effective at ensuring that he keeps offending the same people and not offending new ones.

I do not have favorability polls here. They appeared early and reelated whether people liked the President. Approval is about achievement and result.

The color scheme is opposite of what you might expect, as this scheme comes from an entity that uses red for Democrats and blue for Republicans in accordance with pre-1980 practice. It deals in the history of elections. I have no desire to make waves on that site.




55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

.....................

Now I consider a measure that suggests a ceiling for the Trump (but not conservative!) vote. People who disapprove of the President are not going to vote for him. I am not going to say that they will vote for the Democrat -- but they may

(1) not vote for the President, but vote for Republicans for other offices
(2) vote for an independent or third-party, likely conservative nominee.
(3) vote for the Democrat.

OK -- what about the undecided?  Because the polling in all states is at a level at which the undecided are on the Right side of the political spectrum, at least in each state. Trump should thus do better with the undecided than the Democrat can do. But with those who disapprove, persuasion will be very difficult. People who disapprove of the President don;t want to hear how great President Trump is. Canvassers can talk to the undecided, and often get the chance. 5those who have decided will turn away a canvasser if the canvasser does not get the message.

100-disapproval is a reasonable ceiling for the possible Trump vote. At this I say that if President Trump is behind in approval and disapproval 46-49 he has a chance of getting 51% of the vote, and in this model I am giving the benefit of the doubt to Trump.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

.................

There is an even better question on whether people will vote for or against the incumbent President. I have this for only six states, but I can hardly think of six states more relevant to whether Donald Trump will be re-elected. Those six states are Minnesota (which he barely lost); Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which he barely won; Arizona, which he won by less than 4% (margin of error), and Ohio, which he won by 8%. He projects to lose all six states by decisive margins. He can afford to lose two of those states, but not all six. With the result for Ohio, I can't imagine him winning Pennsylvania. With the result for Arizona I can't imagine him losing Nevada 

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections. 

......

One need not be very far to the Left to hate Donald Trump. Indeed, I can make conservative arguments against Donald Trump.  Yes, there are people who think that Donald Trump is a wonderful President and will be distraught when he goes down to defeat. At this point he is going to need either miracles or a rigged election to get re-elected.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Aug-18 World View -- A 'historic' Caspian Sea agreement leaves major issues unresolved

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• A 'historic' Caspian Sea agreement leaves major issues unresolved
  
• Major issues about commercial exploitation remain unresolved
  

****
**** A 'historic' Caspian Sea agreement leaves major issues unresolved
****


An Iranian family frolicking at the beach in the Caspian Sea port city of Gisum (Getty)

The presidents of five major countries -- the countries bordering the
Caspian Sea -- all arrived in the Kazakhstan port city of Aktau on
Sunday for a summit meeting to sign what is being called a "historic"
agreement on settling the status of the Caspian Sea. The five
countries are Russia, Iran, and three former Soviet states,
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.

The five leaders signed agreements on trade and economic cooperation,
cooperation in the transport sector. The leaders also agreed that the
surface of the Caspian Sea would be freely available to everyone for
activities like travel and fishing.

According to Russia's president Vladimir Putin, the agreement "creates
conditions for bringing cooperation between the countries to a
qualitatively new level of partnership, for the development of close
cooperation on different trajectories." Whatever that means.
BBC and Tass (Moscow) and Press TV (Tehran) and Al Jazeera and Deutsche Welle

****
**** Major issues about commercial exploitation remain unresolved
****

There are some 50 billion barrels of oil and nearly 9 trillion cubic
meters of gas in proven or probable reserves in the Caspian seabed.
At today's prices, that's worth several trillion dollars. The problem
is how to divide those reserves, and Sunday's "historic" agreement
leaves those issues unsettled.

Prior to 1991, there were only two littoral states bordering the
Caspian Sea -- the Soviet Union and Iran. When the Soviet Union split
up, suddenly there were five littoral states. Starting in 1996, these
five countries attempted to reach agreement on how to split up the
seabed among themselves. However, they were never able to reach
agreement, and apparently that's still true despite Sunday's
"historic" agreement.

The problem is that the Caspian Sea is a unique body of water in the
world, and so there are no examples to provide guidance. The Caspian
Sea in Central Asia is the largest inland body of water in the world.
From the point of view of international law, it's neither a sea nor a
lake. It can't be a lake because it's too large, and it can't be a
sea because it's connected to any of the world's oceans.

International law provides formulas for dividing up the seabeds of
lakes and seas. If the Caspian Sea is a sea, then the size of the
region that each country gets depends on the length of the coastline
bordering the sea. Under this formula, Azerbaijan, Russia and
Kazakhstan would get the largest shares of the seabed, and so these
countries favor it.

But if the Caspian Sea is a lake, then there are five littoral states,
and so the seabed would be split up equally among them, giving them
each 20% of the seabed. Iran and Turkmenistan favor this formula,
because they have the shortest shorelines.

According to news reports, the agreement avoids calling either a sea
or a lake, but gives it a special legal status, with an agreement in
principle to a special formula for dividing up the seabed among the
five countries. However, the formula is apparently close to the "sea"
formula. In their closing statements, the leaders of Iran and
Turkmenistan said that these issues remained unsettled, and that
another summit meeting would be required within a few months.

The agreement apparently permits something that Russia had been
opposing -- allowing Turkmenistan to build a "Trans-Caspian Pipeline"
(TCP) to permit delivery of its gas to Azerbaijan, where it would be
pumped into pipelines leading west to Turkey and Europe. For 20
years, Russia has opposed the TCP, claiming that it poses a potential
environmental hazard to the Caspian's unique biosphere. However, this
objection is laughable, since Russia's Gazprom has laid several
pipelines in the Black Sea, which also has a "unique biosphere." It's
believed that Russia simply wants to block competition.

However, Russia and Iran did get their way in one more area. The
agreement specifically forbids any but the five Caspian countries from
deploying military forces on the Caspian Sea.

Recall that in April I wrote "28-Apr-18 World View -- Kazakhstan to permit America to use Caspian ports to supply military in Afghanistan."
Russia and
Iran objected to this, claiming that the Nato would use the transit of
supplies to Afghanistan as an excuse to deploy American forces in the
ports in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, and that the ports might turn into
American military bases.

However, Kazakhstan committed that only nonmilitary supplies will be
permitted to pass through the ports, and Sunday's agreement seals that
commitment. According to Kazakhstan's foreign minister:

<QUOTE>"Some representatives of Russian media and expert
communities do not have a firm grasp of facts on the real
situation regarding the transit of US non-military cargo via
Kazakhstan.... It is about commercial railway transportation of
non-lethal cargo via Kazakhstan to continue the operations to
support the Afghan government, which is necessary for the whole
international community.... Naturally, any military bases on the
Caspian Sea are out of question."<END QUOTE>

He added that this is not a change to any existing agreements.
RFE/RL and Reuters and Bloomberg and SBS (Australia) and Sputnik (Moscow)

Related Articles:

• Kazakhstan to permit America to use Caspian ports to supply military in Afghanistan (28-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea (08-Oct-2015)
  
  
• The Caspian Corridor and the New Silk Road (25-May-2016)
  
  
• Azerbaijan becomes the hub of the Caspian Trade Corridor, part of the new Silk Road (21-Jan-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Caspian, Russia, Iran,
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Soviet Union,
Vladimir Putin, Trans-Caspian Pipeline, TCP,
Black Sea, Nato, Afghanistan

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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[John J. Xenakis]

(08-12-2018, 01:59 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I can't see what you find so marvelous about Donald Trump. Is it
> that he seems charmed, able to get away with things that others
> wouldn't dream of getting away with? Mobster John Gotti was like
> that for some years.

> Class privilege is a reality in America, and it is intensifying
> every year. Decent people who have it do not use it as a pretext
> to do horrible things to people. Even if the industry is
> different, Donald Trump is a real-life J. R. Ewing, the sort of
> plutocrat whose every dealing is a burn of someone else.

> Good people do not brag about grabbing women by their crotches. I
> understand such behavior as "sexual assault", which is good for
> prison time. Put me on a jury, and this "leftist" will vote to
> convict someone of rape if penetration is proved.

(08-12-2018, 05:25 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I simply state my observations. I am a Boomer, and I have seen
> Boomers at their best and at the worst. So far, the elite Boomers
> have been the worst short of the likes of William Calley and Ted
> Bundy, or perhaps some mobster.

So you're saying, "I am Boomer, hear me roar"?

Let me start by making this point that most people don't fully
appreciate: I believe everything I write. Most people naturally think
I'm some random unprincipled blogger whose views change every day.
But everything I write has very high visibility, and what I write
today has to be consistent with write I wrote yesterday. That's why I
have such high credibility with a large group of people. (If I'm
inconsistent, then someone like Tom Mazanec won't hesitate to point it
out, so I have no choice anyway.)

So I judge Trump and Obama the same way -- by actions and outcomes,
not by tweets and speeches. Of course I've heavily criticized Trump's
xenophobic tweets, but they're still just tweets. What counts is
actions and outcomes.

In terms of accomplishments, Trump's foreign policy follows the
principles of generational theory, so I'm very pleased with with his
foreign policy, for the most part, and my research indicates that
policies based on generational theory produce the best outcomes that
are possible, given that a world war against China is 100% certain.
(Of course, most of the members of this forum hate Trump for following
generational theory, which is VERY laughable, given that this forum is
the home of 20th century generational theory.)

So I agree with you that we're in dangerous territory, but Trump has
absolutely nothing to do with it, except that he's trying to mitigate
the danger. But the danger is a 100% certain war with China.

So those are a couple of my views, and those are consistent with my
views yesterday, last year, five years ago, 10 years ago, 15 years
ago. That's why I have high credibility.

Now let's look at an example of why you have no credibility. You're
willing to excuse Clinton's forcible, violent rapes of at least 7
women, and you're willing to excuse Hillary's raping them again by
trashing those victims, but then you go into some silly, wild rant
condemning Trump at length because he bragged about grabbing some
woman's crotch, pretending that you even care about women except when
it's politically convenient. I hope you understand that the previous
sentence alone explains why I believe you're lying about almost
everything you say. You're totally without principle, and contradict
yourself all the time, except for the one thread that runs through
everything you say -- that you'll say anything to defend and excuse
your hatred of Trump and his supporters.

What you need to do, for your own good, is to figure out the REAL
reasons why you hate Trump so much and, more importantly, why you so
vitriolically hate the Tea Partiers and the 60 million people who
voted for Trump. That kind of hatred is a sickness, a mental illness.
("Trump derangement syndrome.")

Years ago, I once had a manager tell me that it's important that I
understand my own biases, because then I can compensate for them. If
I don't understand my own biases, then I won't compensate for them and
I'll get into trouble.

For your own good, you need to understand your own biases. Perhaps
you're conflating Trump with your father, and you hate your father,
and this is controlling your whole life -- I've discovered that that
sort of thing is fairly common. But whatever the reason, once you
understand your own biases you can compensate for them -- and you
should.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Aug-18 World View -- Taliban attack on Ghazni brings America's Afghanistan strategy into question

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Afghan army, backed by US, struggles to regain Ghazni after four days
  
• Taliban attack on Ghazni brings America's Afghanistan strategy into question
  

****
**** Afghan army, backed by US, struggles to regain Ghazni after four days
****


Afghan troops on patrol around Ghazni City on Sunday (AP)

Afghan army forces have still not fully regained control of Ghazni
Proving, four days after they were surprised by an unexpected attack by
Taliban militants on Friday. The sophistication and force of this
attack has once again brought into question the Nato and American
strategy in Afghanistan.

On Friday, Taliban militants conducted a multipronged attack on
Ghazni, a city of 270,000 people, and a trading and transit hub
strategically located along a major highway in eastern Afghanistan.
Afghan government officials say that Taliban militants were hiding in
mosques and homes in Ghazni, and were using residents as human
shields. They would slip out at night and attack Afghan forces.

As is often the case in Afghanistan, there are suspicions that the
Taliban militants had support and help from sympathetic civilian
residents of the city. Some Afghans said the assault was not a
surprise, and followed months of build-up by militants near
checkpoints around the city.

It would not be surprising if a substantial number of civilians
supported the Taliban. Many in the civilian population are ethnic
Pashtuns, and the Taliban itself consists of radicalized Pashtuns.

The US military was actively involved in supporting the Afghan army.
US warplanes delivered two dozen airstrikes, killing more than 140
Taliban fighters, according to the military. U.S. military spokesman
Lt. COL Martin O'Donnell downplayed the significance of the situation
and summarized it on Monday:

<QUOTE>"Ghazni City remains under Afghan government control,
and the isolated and disparate Taliban forces remaining in the
city do not pose a threat to its collapse as some have claimed.
That said, the Taliban's attempts to hide themselves amongst the
Afghan populace does pose a threat to the civilian population, who
were terrorized and harassed by this ineffective attack and the
subsequent execution of innocents, destruction of homes and
burning of a market."<END QUOTE>

However, video released by local TV broadcaster Tolo News showed black
smoke rising in the air as buildings burn and Taliban fighters roam
freely around the city. As of Tuesday morning, the situation in
Ghazni is not yet clear. Military Times and ABC News and AP and Tolo News (Afghanistan)

****
**** Taliban attack on Ghazni brings America's Afghanistan strategy into question
****

The assault on Ghazni City comes after another assault on Farah City
in the western part of the country in May. ( "16-May-18 World View -- Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province in Afghanistan"
)

Taliban activists and the American military have dueling narratives
about how to interpret these repeated attacks by Taliban militants.

Over the past months, the Taliban have seized several districts across
Afghanistan, staging near-daily attacks on afghan security forces.
This proves, according to the Taliban, that they can attack and take
control of districts at any time of their choosing.

However, Afghan officials are claiming that this proves that the
Taliban are being defeated because, even though they can attack
at will, they are unable to hold group the way they used to as
recently as 2016.

U.S. military spokesman Lt. COL Martin O'Donnell said:

<QUOTE>"Tactically, operationally and strategically, the
Taliban achieved nothing with this failed attack except another
eye-catching, but inconsequential headline. The fact remains that
the Taliban are unable to seize terrain and unable to match the
Afghan security forces or our enablement, retreating once directly
and decisively engaged."<END QUOTE>

Arguably, both sides make good points: The Taliban can attack as
often as they want, but they can't hold against the Afghan forces.

The problem is that the second part of that statement is true only if
the Afghan forces are backed by Nato military logistics and airpower.
The brutal attack on Ghazni suggests that without the Nato military,
the Afghan forces apparently cannot defeat the Taliban.

The Nato and Afghan government strategy is to use military force to
compel the Taliban to negotiate a peace. As I've described in detail
many times in the
past, a Generational Dynamics analysis proves that's wrong. The
Taliban are ethnic Pashtuns that have been radicalized, and they
include new generations of young Pashtuns that have come of age since
the bloody Afghan civil war in the early 1990s. These young people
are seeking revenge against their former enemies in the Northern
Alliance, and even if the Taliban leadership tries to negotiate peace,
the younger Pashtuns would not be interested.

That's a summary of the analysis that I've been posting for years, but
in the last year the situation has become even worse. As ISIS
militants in Syria have lost their caliphate in Raqqa and have
continued to lose ground, many ISIS militants have been returning to
their home countries, whether in Europe, in Russia or in Afghanistan.
They're forming a new terrorist network, ISIS-K, or "ISIS Khorasan"
("Wilayah Khorasan") or ISKP, the South Asian branch of ISIS.

ISIS-K has been conducting its own terror attacks in Afghanistan,
sometimes cooperating with the Taliban, and at other times fighting
against the Taliban. The Taliban, especially the younger generation
militants, have no desire for a negotiated peace with the government,
but even if they did, the militants in ISIS-K would not. So the Nato
plan for Afghanistan has no chance of succeeding.

As I've written in the past, there seems to be another strategy for
the American military in Afghanistan. Donald Trump and the military
understand that this war cannot be won, but they also understand that
war with China and Pakistan is approaching. As war with China and
Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to keep American troops
active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several American
military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in Bagram and
Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be valuable in any
future war with China. Under these circumstances, having troops in
Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are defeated or not.
Asia Times and Long War Journal and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

• ISIS-K bombing in Kabul, Afghanistan, targets returning vice president Abdul Rashid Dostum (23-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province in Afghanistan (16-May-2018)
  
  
• Nine journalists killed by suicide bombers in Kabul Afghanistan (01-May-2018)
  
  
• ISIS-K suicide bomber kills over 50 in Kabul, Afghanistan, registering to vote (23-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban,
Pashtuns, Northern Alliance,
Nato, Bagram, Kandahar International Airport, Martin O'Donnell
ISIS Khorasan, Wilayah Khorasan, ISIS-K, ISKP

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Aug-18 World View -- Chinese workers in Pakistan injured in terrorist bombing

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Chinese workers in Pakistan injured in terrorist bombing
  
• War of words grows over IMF funding for Pakistan's debt
  

****
**** Chinese workers in Pakistan injured in terrorist bombing
****


Result when bus carrying Chinese workers was attacked by a suicide bomber

The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has claimed credit for a suicide
bombing attack that injured three Chinese workers in Pakistan's
Balochistan province, as they were working on the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC). It appears that the Chinese workers were
specifically targeted. The suicide attack targeted a bus transporting
Chinese workers from their work place in the mines to the city of
Quetta.

The Chinese workers were working on the Saindak Copper-Gold project in
a mountainous area near the border with Iran. This is a joint venture
between Pakistan and China to extract gold, copper and silver from the
area. The project is managed by a Chinese firm, the Metallurgical
Corporation of China (MCC).

Since the 1990s, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has been waging
an armed struggle against the government of Pakistan for equal rights
and self-determination for the people of the Baloch ethnic group in
Pakistan. It has conducted dozens of terror attacks against
government installations, security personnel, military targets, and
Pakistani laborers. In May 2017 it began attacking CPEC and Chinese
targets, particularly the port at Gwadar. The BLA opposes CPEC,
saying that it exploits Balochistan resources that they believe belong
to the Baloch people.

Although the exact contractual agreement between Pakistan and China is
a secret, it's believed that profits are distributed according to
ownership. MCC owns 50% of the mine, Balochistan province owns 35%,
and Pakistan's government owns 15%. The BLA claim that CPEC is
allowing China and Pakistan to exploit resources that should belong to
the Baloch people.

CPEC is a $55-60 billion 20-year project that will supposedly build a
network of roads, railways and energy pipelines aiming to connect
western Chinese cities, starting from China's easternmost city Kashgar
in Xinjiang province, to the sea port in Gwadar on the Indian Ocean in
Balochistan province in southern Pakistan. It will have both economic
and military components. Power generation, transport, commerce, R&D
and the defense of Pakistan all will be increasingly tied to Chinese
investment, supplies and interests.

The security of Chinese workers in Pakistan is a big issue. China and
Pakistan signed the CPEC agreement in March of last year, making CPEC
a target of terror groups including BLA.

Chinese officials say that a major benefit of CPEC to Pakistan is that
it employs about 2,000 local Balochistan workers. But Pakistan's
ambassador to China Masood Khalid has estimated that there are some
30,000 Chinese working on Pakistan development projects, including
CPEC, and that Pakistan's army has deployed 15,000 soldiers to provide
security for the Chinese workers.

So China has loaned Pakistan tens of billions of dollars for CPEC, and
the salaries of 30,000 Chinese workers and 15,000 soldiers are paid
out of that money. But only 2,000 local workers receive any of that
money. The BLA objects to these kinds of terms.

Despite all that money being paid for Pakistani army soldiers, the bus
carrying Chinese workers was still attacked by a suicide bomber on
Saturday.

This has alarmed Chinese officials. A Chinese police delegation
arrived in Pakistan's capital city Islamabad on Monday to discuss the
matter. Pakistan's interior minister said that Pakistan had left no
stone unturned in providing fool proof security to Chinese citizens in
Pakistan. “We are committed to fight against terrorism in all of its
manifestations." There has not yet been any announcement of what
additional steps will be taken to protect Chinese citizens working in
Pakistan.

Li Wei, a Chinese counter-intelligence expert, said:

<QUOTE>"The province of Balochistan is a region in Pakistan
where terrorist activities are relatively intense. Separatist
forces there believe that any development activity in their
'territories' violates their interests, and that is the reason why
they launch terror attacks."<END QUOTE>

The solution is to hire more security personnel. One Chinese company
has six security personnel escorting a single Chinese employee to
ensure his daily safety. The Nation (Pakistan) and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Global Times (Beijing) and The Nation (24-Aug-2017) and Dawn (Pakistan, 27-Oct-2017)

****
**** War of words grows over IMF funding for Pakistan's debt
****


A currency dealer in Quetta, Pakistan (AFP)

As we reported last week, Pakistan is deeply in debt, and has only
enough foreign reserves to cover payments for imports until the end of
August. Much of Pakistan's financial problems are caused by a Chinese
"debt trap," where Pakistan does not have the foreign reserves to make
payments on the money that China has loaned to Pakistan for CPEC.
( "7-Aug-18 World View -- Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC"
)

On Monday, it emerged that China has agreed to guarantee Pakistan's
financial backing. This means that China will loan Pakistan
additional billions of dollars, making Pakistan even more deeply
indebted to China.

The only other possible source of money for Pakistan to stave off
financial disaster is a new loan from the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), although Pakistan has not fully repaid its last loan, made in
2013.

Imran Khan, Pakistan's incoming anti-American prime minister, used to
criticize Pakistan's government for borrowing from the
Washington-based IMF, but now that he's in the government with a
pending financial crisis, he's suggested that his attitude may have
changed.

However, attitudes in Washington have also changed. It's becoming
apparent that China is setting debt traps in one nation after another
as it loans tens of billions of dollars to each nation for
infrastructure projects in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It's
now being recognized that many of these countries are going to come to
the IMF for loans when they're unable to pay their debts to China,
which means that money from the IMF, which is largely funded by
American taxpayers, would be paid to China in the case of each
country.

Earlier this month, a bipartisan group of US senators expressed
concern over potential bailout requests to the IMF by countries who
have accepted "predatory Chinese infrastructure financing."

This has angered the Chinese, who of course would like to have the IMF
bail out their debt trap countries, so that in effect the IMF would be
funding China's BRI projects in all the countries.

According to a lengthy analysis in the South China Morning Post:

<QUOTE>"Unexpectedly, just five days after Pakistan’s
elections, [US Secretary of State Mike] Pompeo opposed an IMF
bailout package to Pakistan. He argued that American taxpayer
dollars are part of IMF funding and therefore the US government
would not allow a bailout package for Pakistan that could be used
to repay Chinese creditors or the government of China. This is the
first time the US government has openly made a move that is
tantamount to attacking Pakistan-China economic cooperation. ...

Against this backdrop, Pompeo’s recent statement is a major blow
to US-Pakistan relations. This does not bode well for peace and
stability in Afghanistan because now Pakistan will not be
motivated to cooperate with the US government anymore on the
Afghan front.

Given that the US is a major power broker in the IMF, its
opposition will effectively thwart a bailout package for
Pakistan. The country will have to explore other options to secure
the funds needed to stimulate its economy. Unfortunately, there
are not many countries or funding organisations that can offer
Pakistan a generous financial bailout. Thus, Pakistan would be
left with no choice but to ask for help from its all-weather
friend – China. ...

After the probable refusal of IMF bailout package, Pakistan will
be seeking additional loans of US$12 billion from China. ...

Hence, Pakistan will further be pushed towards economic dependence
on China. If it is unable to repay Chinese loans, it could end up
leasing its assets, such as Gwadar Port, to China. This model has
already worked with Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port.

The US decision to block the IMF bailout has effectively put
Pakistan on the path to becoming a Chinese economic colony. This
will certainly not help the US in increasing its influence in
South Asia and Indochina, but will rather immensely increase the
influence of China in South Asia."<END QUOTE>

The analysis refers to the Sri Lanka example, where Sri Lanka was
unable to make payments on money loaned by China for the Hambantota
Seaport. As a result, Sri Lanka was forced to give control of
Hambantota to China for 99 years. In addition, there is now a large
Chinese enclave surrounding the seaport of thousands of Chinese
workers and families that will be there forever.

So the above analysis worries that all of Pakistan is on the path to
becoming a "Chinese economic colony." The implied solution is that
the US and the IMF should rush to Pakistan's rescue and give them the
money to repay their all-weather friend China.

It's actually still possible that the IMF will lend Pakistan the
money. Theoretically, the IMF is an indpendent organization, located
in Washington, but not controlled in any way by Washington political
policy. Theoretically, the IMF should not be swayed in its decision
by the way the money will be used -- to repay China.

As I've been writing for the last ten years, Generational Dynamics
predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world
war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part
of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the
bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine
and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and
Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other.

Whether the IMF lends money to Pakistan or not, it is not possible for
the US and Pakistan to become "friends" in anything like the sense
that China and Pakistan are "all-weather friends." Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Xinhua and South China Morning Post


Related Articles:

• Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC (07-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan's Imran Khan blockades supplies to Nato in Afghanistan (26-Nov-2013)
  
  
• Pakistan overwhelmed and China alarmed over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) (12-Dec-2017)
  
  
• China takes control of strategic Hambantota seaport in Sri Lanka, raising concerns in India (11-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Execution of two of China's citizens in Pakistan raises concerns about CPEC (10-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Terror attack in Quetta, Balochistan, Pakistan, kills 75 (09-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Balochistan, China,
Balochistan Liberation Army, BLA, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC,
Saindak Copper-Gold project, Metallurgical Corporation of China, MCC,
Kashgar, Xinjiang, Gwadar seaport, Masood Khalid, Li Wei,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Sri Lanka, Hambantota seaport

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John J. Xenakis
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[pbrower2a]

(08-14-2018, 11:03 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So you're saying, "I am Boomer, hear me roar"?

In my case, it's more like "whinny".

Quote:Let me start by making this point that most people don't fully
appreciate: I believe everything I write.  Most people naturally think
I'm some random unprincipled blogger whose views change every day.
But everything I write has very high visibility, and what I write
today has to be consistent with write I wrote yesterday.  That's why I
have such high credibility with a large group of people.  (If I'm
inconsistent, then someone like Tom Mazanec won't hesitate to point it
out, so I have no choice anyway.)

I am not an original journalist. I am not in an area where original stories are commonplace. The local newspaper has stories about the local offenders (meth bust, DUI, domestic violence, shoplifting, bar brawl) and about the visible goings-on in local chapters of organizations, so what originates here doesn't go far beyond the immediate community. 

I have my opinions and interpretations, and I generally write in such a way as to suggest that those are my opinions. When I am involved in a personal interchange, the context is opinion. When someone else makes an issue of my beliefs, opinions, or desires, then the context should make clear that such has only accentuated that this is an issue of opinions.

Nobody can live 100% in the realm of objective reality. A journalist as a reporter might be interested in facts and nothing else, and might be obliged to report the basic 'who-what-when-and-where' as on AP, UPI, or Reuters. Journalists are said to explain 'why', but the blitz-style writing of AP wires makes the reporter's analysis impossible. The analysis is for someone else.

Quote:So I judge Trump and Obama the same way -- by actions and outcomes,
not by tweets and speeches.  Of course I've heavily criticized Trump's
xenophobic tweets, but they're still just tweets.  What counts is
actions and outcomes.

Of course actions and outcomes matter. Actions and outcomes that have significance are history. Every politician offers his trial balloons. In dealing with foreign powers, there might be inducements and occasionally threats, as in "Remove those troops from Kuwait or we will find ways to remove those".

I recognize that everyone has dark impulses, but most people know enough to contemplate the consequences and recognize the worst voice that goes through his head as something to ignore or reject. Maybe if one is fortunate one can think outside the box and reject the crazier ideas and take the one in a few hundred that is worthy and release it after honing it into something desirable. That is genius. Failing to make such a distinction is either foolishness or insanity, either of which is ordinarily difficult to distinguish in results.

As Heraclitus said, character is destiny (perhaps the best three-word saying neither banal nor absurd) -- and it should be obvious that Obama has far more self-control than does Donald Trump. Self-control may not be the total of character, but it is a huge part. People who lack self-control get themselves in huge trouble for the harm that they do, which explains prisons and madhouses. A trained attorney, Obama knows that every public utterance has potential consequences. He releases what he wants known at the time, and not what can hurt his effectiveness. That is a good practice for ensuring that the drama is in the courtroom and not in the public mind (until the courtroom case or the plea bargain is made). Donald Trump's impulsive tweets are reckless and often damaging.  


Everyone has his demons -- I included. I hope that I am able to keep them at bay. I cannot fully understand why the current President releases whatever races through his mind. Perhaps because he is a real-estate man he has been able to say things in the presence of a few associates that simply don't circulate. Because he is the President, anything that he says is potentially within the scrutiny of everyone, especially those who dislike or distrust him. Releasing his stream-of-consciousness thoughts as tweets is reckless in the extreme. I have my biases, especially against conduct inexcusably contrary to adult standards. President Trump does not have the excuse that he is a child.

Quote:In terms of accomplishments, Trump's foreign policy follows the
principles of generational theory, so I'm very pleased with with his
foreign policy, for the most part, and my research indicates that
policies based on generational theory produce the best outcomes that
are possible, given that a world war against China is 100% certain.
(Of course, most of the members of this forum hate Trump for following
generational theory, which is VERY laughable, given that this forum is
the home of 20th century generational theory.)

Generational theory is not an established discipline in academia. Many consider it little better than astrology as a predictor of events. I try to stick to the obvious... the reality that history shapes people in childhood (often indelibly), that what people consider objective reality (witches are real and dangerous due to their powers or people doing alleged witchcraft are harmless eccentrics -- one was good for being hanged in Salem and the other is a veritable tourist attraction) changes with time, that history determines what opportunities are available in young-adulthood and what isn't (so if one is a Boomer and admires the legitimate achievements of GIs, one can't quite replicate the role and get away with it because the GIs have experience that makes you incapable of competing), that institutions form and disintegrate... and above all, as death and senescence take their toll on the elderly whose contributions shaped society, extinction of human memory takes away much that we take for granted in life.

We all interpret generational theory in different ways. I have different assumptions than yours. I see a steady evolution of foreign policy from Reagan to Obama in the long view (Bill Clinton, ideologically so different from the elder Bush, promised to maintain the foreign policy of the incumbent President if he won -- he won and he did!); Trump is an abrupt break. An abrupt break in policy is either necessity as the basic reality changes or is madness if unnecessary.

It is up to us to determine what is a consequence of generational theory and what isn't (such as physical reality and the established corpus of settled fact such as biographical truth, scientific reality, the permanence of death, and logical convention).

Quote:So I agree with you that we're in dangerous territory, but Trump has
absolutely nothing to do with it, except that he's trying to mitigate
the danger.  But the danger is a 100% certain war with China.

Donald Trump is revolutionary change to America, and his rise is as much a consequence of generational change as anything else. He is a demagogue, and nations in Crisis eras are more prone to accept demagogues as their peoples see their world and its once-safe assumptions becoming unreliable. The father says to his son,  "there will always be a coal mine, and people will always need coal for energy and for steel, and around here that is the best that you can hope for. Unless you want to go to some crazy place like Chicago or Atlanta, you can mine coal and be near family and friends". Then the coal seams get worked out, and natural gas becomes more economical as a source of energy. That parental advice suddenly becomes irrelevant as coal country becomes an economic wasteland. That is only the most blatant. Maybe West Virginia and eastern Kentucky would be wise to cultivate folk culture and tourism to create a different economy, but people are so convinced that coal is the solution that they reject such a view. When the Establishment loses its credibility, all Hell can break loose, as in Germany in the early 1930s.

Polarization of the body politic has made the rise of Donald Trump possible. He has none of the usual qualifications of recent Presidents -- not even holding any elected public office or being a Cabinet secretary. It is bad form to try to impose views that clash with the Establishment (like zero-based budgeting that worked in Georgia government but would not work in Washington DC because Georgia state government is not a good analogue to the American Congress) and then back down, as did Carter. Donald Trump is trying to reshape every aspect of public life that he thinks important. As someone who sees life as little more than gain and indulgence, he assumes that everyone else is so motivated. He has shown how wrong he can be. He is a hero out of an Ayn Rand novel in which the world collapses until people come to the recognition that the greediest and most domineering bastards are the only people capable of running anything and managing wealth. So let them take everything and reward them with unlimited indulgence!  Voila, the Great Donald Trump!

I see American public life becoming much more dangerous due to the intensification of political polarization. Barack Obama was careful about what he said, and he riled people up more for what he was than for what he did to people. Donald Trump is a rabble-rousing demagogue, William Jennings Bryan on steroids, who has sought to turn the white working class against minorities and the white middle class on behalf of economic elites. He exudes bigotry and finds plenty of scapegoats. Uniting people against domestic scapegoats is the style of dangerous leaders from Stalin to Hitler to Milosevic. Trump is not a Stalin or Hitler, but we have large numbers of highly-visible, moderately-successful people whom angry people can easily turn against.

Model minorities (think of Jews in Germany before 1933) can go from blessings to objects of venomous hatred in a short time. Poor blacks who did cheap labor as field hands or as cheap indulgence as domestic servants were always safe in "Ku Kluxistan" because the elites needed and wanted them, and would protect them. Individual blacks could be made examples of if they turned to crime -- often petty crime, or perhaps if a young man gave a wolf whistle to a white girl (don't contaminate our precious white women, as 'race' and 'class' are the ultimate reality!) often with savage brutality such as a lynching or a public hanging. The KKK at its worst would never get the chance to set up 'labor' or 'extermination' camps that would destroy black people.

Poor blacks in the South did not have profitable businesses, savings accounts, or other forms of wealth. They had the sorts of jobs that nobody takes except in desperation. Now contrast German Jews, many of whom were visibly successful in business, academia, law, science, medicine, and culture... and a pretty German gentile girl might find an improvement in her life if she could attract some nice Jewish fellow who is an economic success. All that she needs give up is Jesus, pork, and shellfish. When the economy melted down, many German gentiles saw a huge difference between themselves and Jews, and Hitler exploited the resentments. We know the sordid continuation of the story.

Germany had one somewhat-visible model minority; America has several. One of those is Chinese-Americans. Donald Trump so far has left them alone. Guess what happens if his successor tries to satisfy his supporters by expelling or brutalizing them? If you think war with China is already at a 100% chance, does it go to a 150% chance? Yugoslavia under Milosevic got war with nations that had no significant Bosnian Muslim populations. Note well that if a demagogue who follows Donald Trump, gets economic failure, and goes after Chinese-Americans, he is also going against other model minorities -- Korean-Americans, Japanese-Americans, Vietnamese-Americans, Filipino-Americans, Americans of south-Asian origin, Arab-Americans, middle-class Hispanics, the black bourgeoisie, and Jews.

But I may be going over the top here. Donald Trump is far from inevitable in achieving a second term. He is not as competent as Clinton in ensuring that the objectionable characteristics are of little relevance in the time. He does not have the good will that Dubya got from the American electorate in the intense patriotism following 9/11. He utterly lacks the political skills of Obama. Watch the 2018 midterm elections to see how the President changes. The best that anyone could hope for in the event of a Democratic win of both Houses of Congress is what California Governor Gerald Brown did after proposition 13 passed -- he recognized that the voters had spoken, and he adapted. He sought ways to cut waste in government with the aid of willing Republicans. Are the results entirely good? Hardly. California's public K-12 education is awful, and the state is a landlord's dream and a tenant's nightmare. But reality is what it is. Elections have consequences, not all for the best.

Quote:So those are a couple of my views, and those are consistent with my
views yesterday, last year, five years ago, 10 years ago, 15 years
ago.  That's why I have high credibility.

In 1932 Japan was a poor, exotic country with odd customs just entering the industrialized world. In 1932 Germany was still the land of J S Bach, Johann Wilhelm Goethe, and Max Planck about which any German-American could be proud of as origin. In 1932 Italy had an erratic leader but the heritage of the Italian Renaissance on to Giacomo Puccini. In 1942, Americans were not associating Japan with Hokusai, Germany with Brahms, or Italy with Michelangelo. Something obviously changed over ten years... History is all too often an obscene tale written in the blood of innocent people on parchment derived from the cadavers of the innocent people.  

Quote:Now let's look at an example of why you have no credibility.  You're
willing to excuse Clinton's forcible, violent rapes of at least 7
women, and you're willing to excuse Hillary's raping them again by
trashing those victims, but then you go into some silly, wild rant
condemning Trump at length because he bragged about grabbing some
woman's crotch, pretending that you even care about women except when
it's politically convenient.  I hope you understand that the previous
sentence alone explains why I believe you're lying about almost
everything you say.  You're totally without principle, and contradict
yourself all the time, except for the one thread that runs through
everything you say -- that you'll say anything to defend and excuse
your hatred of Trump and his supporters.

This is not the 1990s anymore. Violent and forcible. or rape? Not proven.  I may be wrong but I am not a liar. Clinton got away with his sexual escapades as nobody does now. He has not run for any public office since his Presidency ended seventeen years ago.  It is Donald Trump who brought them up in the debates of 2016, and that may have decided the overall election. We now have a President and majorities in both Houses of Congress and most state legislatures who believe that hardly any human suffering is in excess so long as that suffering enhances the gain, indulgence, and power of economic elites (ownership and the executive class).

Yes, I would urge my daughter to press charges against some thug that she wanted nothing to do with who grabbed her by the crotch -- if I had a daughter who experienced such a sexual assault.

Yes, I hate President Trump's plutocratic, anti-intellectual agenda from which I have nothing to gain. If it should ever be fully implemented, then I can think of a solution to all my problems. I have been referred to the mental health system for making subtle hints to that effect. If all that I can look forward to is standing at a convenience-store counter and checking out cigarettes and booze to people and living in a decrepit trailer, then I have little reason to stay alive.

Quote:What you need to do, for your own good, is to figure out the REAL
reasons why you hate Trump so much and, more importantly, why you so
vitriolically hate the Tea Partiers and the 60 million people who
voted for Trump.  That kind of hatred is a sickness, a mental illness.
("Trump derangement syndrome.")

About 45% of Americans have that derangement. In fact I in some ways pity him even more than I loathe him. He is one of the most vacant people that I have ever known to achieve prominence in American life. I am willing to accept that people who were in the Tea Party or voted for Trump have been fooled, and that many of them will come to realize that they have been taken. I also feel sorry for people who get taken in 419 schemes.

If anything you are the one who needs to understand why even the most sympathetic polls to Donald Trump get this sort of result:

[/url]

Quote:[url=https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/180814_crosstabs_POLITICO_v1_DK-1.pdf]Morning Consult/Politico, August 10-12.  1992 registered voters.

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (nc)

GCB: D 42 (nc), R 38 (+2)

This poll may overstate the number of people identifying as "Republican" or "Republican-leaning".

Quote:Years ago, I once had a manager tell me that it's important that I
understand my own biases, because then I can compensate for them.  If
I don't understand my own biases, then I won't compensate for them and
I'll get into trouble.

...and I have had a boss tell me that my only reason for existence was to make someone people already filthy rich even filthier-rich. So put on that big, bright happy-to-serve-you smile, and quit thinking of anything beyond what is available here and now.

One can accept such or reject such. That is abusive management, the sort common in places that see working people as little more than machines of meat and pay accordingly.

Quote:For your own good, you need to understand your own biases.  Perhaps
you're conflating Trump with your father, and you hate your father,
and this is controlling your whole life -- I've discovered that that
sort of thing is fairly common.  But whatever the reason, once you
understand your own biases you can compensate for them -- and you
should.

Paging Dr. Freud! 

I have more trouble with capitalism than with my father. I didn't have big problems with him until he got senile, after which he lost his inhibitions and became violent and abusive. People who used to respect him saw that and decided to never see him again. But his senility had cause in deterioration of his body. He was no longer the person that I had known for sixty years. That I had to pay dearly for some of his mistakes is not his fault.

Donald Trump is not a father figure to me. He is too close to his age, and I see in him the faults of my generation -- at least until most of us had to deal with the iron reality of capitalist exploitation that has worsened since the 1970s. The common Boomer has been compelled to develop some humility that establishes that he can never go far in life because if one does not succeed at day-to-day survival one will end up dead or in prison. People like Trump ensure that the only people who get ahead are fully complicit in capitalism at its worst -- the low, rigid glass ceilings in bureaucratic organizations and the piked pit underlying what used to be a safety net. Someone like Trump can appeal to people who do not know what he really is.

Donald Trump, to me, is about everything wrong with America. He is what most fascists are, people attempting to restore a feudal social structure upon what has been a free society. His bigoted tweets are disgraces.

I admit to having a problem. It's Asperger's syndrome, and if I had known about it at the right time I would have made appropriate changes in the direction of my life. I might have taken different courses in college and career. I would have avoided the white-collar world with its office politics that people with Asperger's have trouble with, unless to do something like computer programming. There might be skilled trades in which an intense focus serves well, and people skills don't matter so much. I do not have an Oedipus complex.

You do not know me well, and as I can see, you do not relate well to liberals. I recognize that President Trump has been successful at ensuring that he unloads the worst onto people who were never going to support him anyway. That is how most dictators do things -- abuse non-supporters and trivialize their pain.

I see no precedent for Donald Trump as President of the United States, but plenty in other countries -- and those precedents are all horrifyingly ominous. He might not get away with what some of those monsters did -- but it is also possible to drive drunk without incident  if one is lucky enough that time.