Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Nov-18 World View -- Fifteen countries challenge China's human rights in Xinjiang province

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Fifteen countries challenge China's human rights in Xinjiang province
  
• China's crackdown on religions continues
  

****
**** Fifteen countries challenge China's human rights in Xinjiang province
****


Car with BBC reporters stopped by Chinese police in Xinjiang in October (BBC)

The ambassadors to China from a group of 15 Western countries are
reportedly taking coordinated action to condemn China's human rights
record in Xinjiang province, where evidence has been accumulating for
several months that about a million Chinese citizens of Uighur
ethnicity are forcibly locked up in vast "re-education centers" or
"re-education prisons," where they're required to sing Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) songs and pledge allegiance to the CCP.

The 15 ambassadors have drafted a letter to be sent to Chen Quanguo,
Xinjiang’s CCP boss. The draft letter reads in part:

<QUOTE>"We are deeply troubled by reports of the treatment of
ethnic minorities, in particular individuals of Uighur ethnicity,
in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region.

In order to better understand the situation, we request a meeting
with you at your earliest convenience to discuss these
concerns."<END QUOTE>

The project is being led by Canada. The other 14 countries are
Britain, France, Switzerland, European Union, Germany, Netherlands,
Australia, Ireland, Sweden, Belgium, Norway, Estonia, Finland and
Denmark.

The response from China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying was
both angry and bizarre. Here are excerpts:

An ambassador is supposed to promote the mutual understanding,
mutual trust and cooperation between the receiving state and the
sending state, rather than raise unreasonable requests and
interfere in the internal affairs of the receiving state based on
hearsay.

Maybe you could interview these ambassadors and ask them whether
they have got all the facts straight before writing this
letter. Do they know that we have another 54 ethnic minority
groups besides the Han and the Uyghur? Do they know that China has
more than 40 laws and regulations including the Constitution which
have clear stipulations on ethnic minority groups' usage and
development of their languages and cultures? Maybe you could ask
these ambassadors whether the ethnic minority groups in their
countries like the US and Canada, learn English? Is their learning
of English also considered as an attempt by their governments to
extinguish or assimilate languages and cultures of the ethnic
minority groups? ...

I think what they have done is very rude and unacceptable. We hope
that they could fulfill their duties and obligations as
ambassadors, work to help their countries learn about China in a
truthful, all-around and multidimensional way, and play a positive
and constructive role in enhancing mutual trust, friendship and
cooperation between their countries and China.

I would like to reiterate that Xinjiang as an open region welcomes
those who go there with goodwill. Anyone harboring malicious
intentions and prejudice and seeking to interfere in China's
internal affairs will be firmly rejected."<END QUOTE>[/i]

So China's re-education prisons are being compared to Americans and
Canadians learning to speak English. As far as I know, we don't beat,
torture and jail people until they learn English. That's about as
bizarre as you can get.

Beyond that, the statement contains no attempt to address the charges
of human rights abuses in Xinjiang except to call the ambassadors'
actions "very rude and unacceptable."

Finally, the description of Xinjiang as "an open region" may be true
in a sense, but several BBC on-site investigations show that every
word and action is rigidly controlled by the security forces. BBC
reporters may be allowed into Xinjiang but they're closely followed by
"minders," and prevented from approaching the re-education prisons.

The letter by 15 ambassadors will not cause China to change its
behavior -- nothing ever does -- but it will embarrass the Chinese and
make it more difficult for them to continue lying. CNN and Reuters and BBC (26-Oct)

****
**** China's crackdown on religions continues
****

The Uighurs are Muslims, but as I've described several times in the
past, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) considers all non-indigenous religions to be dangerous.

These include Islam, Protestantism, Catholicism and Buddhism.

The reason is that pretty much every religion has, at one time or
another, been the underpinning of an anti-government rebellion in
China.

So the Buddhist White Lotus Society led the Red Turban Rebellion that
overthrew the Yuan Dynasty in 1358, and came close to overthrowing the
Qing dynasty in the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1804). Of course the
Tibetan Buddhists frightens the CCP, and the Falun Gong movement,
which is also Buddhist-based, terrifies the CCP.

The CCP has been particularly heavy-handed this year in cracking down
on Christianity. That's partially because of the Taiping Rebellion
(1850-64). That rebellion was led by Hong Xiuquan who had been
converted to Christianity by a Protestant missionary, and who had a
hallucinatory vision that he was the son of God and the younger
brother of Jesus. He formed the Society of God Worshippers that
spread and drew converts from ethnic Hakkas to form the Taiping Army
that, once again, almost overthrew the Qing Dynasty.

China, throughout its history, has rarely been able to govern itself,
and was frequently conquered by outside armies. It took only small
armies of Mongols to rule China for centuries, and then a small army
of Manchus to do the same for centuries. When China wasn't being
conquered and ruled by outside armies, it was a country of regions and
warlords fighting each other. It's only since Mao's Communist
Revolution in 1949 that China was finally self-governing through a
central government, but even that was almost destroyed by Mao's Great
Leap Forward and Mao's Great Cultural Revolution, which killed tens of
millions of people through starvation and execution.

Today, the CCP is the most paranoid government on earth. They're even
afraid of Winnie the Pooh because Winnie the Pool looks like president
Xi Jinping, and might be used as a symbol to trigger a rebellion. Can
you imagine Donald Trump or another Western leader being terrified of
Winnie the Pooh? Yet, Xi Jinping is terrified of Winnie the Pooh.
That's how pathetic he is as a leader. He's made himself into a total
dictator, and the only way he can rule is by killing, torture, rape,
abductions, massacres, atrocities, or, in the case of the Uighurs,
massive re-education prisons holding millions of people.

The CCP has identified what it calls the "five poisons" of society
that must be controlled or stamped out. These are Tibetans, Uighur
Muslims, democracy activists, Taiwanese, and Falun Gong
practitioners.

The equivalent situation in America would be if the government
declared blacks and Catholics to be "poisons," along with gun owners
and Jews, would need to be sent to re-education prisons to be forced
to become Protestants.

In July, a group of 30 workers at Jasic Technology in Shenzen who were
treated abusively and weren't being paid decided to unionize. The CCP
jailed them for "gathering a crowd to disrupt public order," not even
letting them see a lawyer. Last week, Marxist and Maoist students
from Peking University and other colleges traveled to Shenzen to form
the "Jasic Workers' Solidarity Group" to support the workers.

To the paranoid CCP, this situation is very dangerous, because it
could lead to an anti-government rebellion, so naturally these groups
of students have been violently rounded up and jailed. This was
followed by a crackdown on student activism on campus, banning Marxist
study groups, and punishing students at Peking University, Renmin
University and Nanjing University. The CCP know very well that the
government was brought down in 1949 by Marxist and Maoist forces, and
they know that it could happen again.

So whether it's Winnie the Pooh, or the Uighurs, or the Tibetans, or
the Falun Gong, the Chinese government are terrified of everything,
and consider pretty much everyone to be their enemy.

Like central governments throughout China's history, the CCP is
extremely weak and will end as quickly as it began. It can't govern
except by developing massive weapons systems and planning for a war
that it will lose, but not before it's brought catastrophe to itself
and the entire world. Radio Free Asia (12-Nov) and AP and Economist

Related Articles

• China continues massive crackdown on non-indigenous religions (21-Oct-2018)
  
  
• China defends million-prisoner 'reeducation camps' and Sinicization of Islam in Xinjiang (14-Oct-2018)
  
  
• University of N. Florida and Pentagon cut ties with China's Confucius Institutes (30-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Defector in Kazakhstan reveals explosive information about China's 'reeducation centers' (25-Jul-2018)
  
  
• China bans Winnie The Pooh because Xi Jinping looks like him (18-Jul-2017)
  
  
• China Prime Minister warns country becoming unstable (24-Jan-2006)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xinjiang, Uighurs,
re-education prisons, Chen Quanguo, Hua Chunying, Canada,
Islam, Protestantism, Catholicism, Buddhism,
White Lotus Society, Red Turban Rebellion, Yuan Dynasty,
White Lotus Rebellion, Qing Dynasty, Tibet, Falun Gong,
Taiping Rebellion, Hong Xiuquan, Society of God Worshippers,
Mongols, Manchus, Great Leap Forward, Great Cultural Revolution,
Winnie the Pooh, Jasic Technology, Shenzen,
Peking University, Renmin University, Nanjing University

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

More globalists trying to interfere in China's internal affairs just like they routinely try to do with Russia's internal affairs. Putin is leading the fight against globalism and actions like this would likely lead to Xi Joining him against world globalism. The "concern" about Uighurs and Chechens respectively is just globalist interference in another nations affairs run amok.

P.S: Assad is a good person.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Nov-18 World View -- North Korea 'Charm Offensive' appears to have run its course

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North Korea announces a 'Newly Developed Tactical Weapon'
  
• The 'Charm Offensive' has almost run its course
  

****
**** North Korea announces a 'Newly Developed Tactical Weapon'
****


Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, North Korea, on 19-Sep-2018 (AP)

As the charm offensive involving the Koreas and the United States
continues, the North Koreans have made their next move, with an
announcement in North Korean media that "Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un
Supervises Newly Developed Tactical Weapon Test."

The news report describes the weapon as an "ultramodern tactical
weapon", and combines a description of the child dictator's glee with
claims that his father Kim Jong-il had the engineering skill to have
personally directed the new weapon's development:

<QUOTE>"After seeing the power of the tactical weapon,
Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un was so excited to say that another
great work was done by the defense scientists and munitions
industrial workers to increase the defense capability of the
country and the weapon system whose development Chairman Kim
Jong-il had chosen personally and directed step by step with his
special attention paid to it was born at last. He added that the
weapon is just like a posthumous weapon and he missed Kim Jong-il
very much while seeing the great success of its test. ...

He expressed great satisfaction, saying the great success serves
as another striking demonstration of the validity of the Party
policy of prioritizing defense science and technology and the
rapidly developing defense capability of the country and as a
decisive turn in bolstering the fighting capacity of the Korean
People's Army."<END QUOTE>

No further description was given of the weapon. It's described as a
"tactical weapon," and one online definition of that phrase says that
"Tactical weapons are designed for offensive or defensive use at
relatively short range with relatively immediate consequences."
We assume then that the word "tactical" was used purposely to
imply that the weapon would not be used against the United
States, but could be used against South Korea.

We further assume that therefore this announcement was meant as a
warning to South Korea's president Moon Jae-in. We take note of the
fact that North Korea has never repudiated its primary mission of
using military force to reunite North and South Korea under North
Korean control.

So one purpose of the announcement is to reassure the North Korean
domestic audience that weapons development is continuing, and
preparations for an invasion of the South are continuing.

A second purpose might be retaliation for the resumption by the US and
South Korea earlier this month of some minor joint military marine drills.

Third, we can assume that Kim's announcement was intended as a threat
of war to South Korea, unless Moon Jae-in meets Kim's demands,
including declaring an end to the Korean War, and convincing President
Trump to agree to reduce sanctions. DPRK Today
and Reuters
and ABC News

****
**** The 'Charm Offensive' has almost run its course
****

A year ago at this time, it appeared that the United States
and North Korea were close to war, after multiple nuclear and
ballistic missile tests by the North Koreans.

The climate changed dramatically early in January, when Kim
Jong-un began his "charm offensive," based on North Korea's
participation in the Olympics games in Seoul, South Korea.

Donald Trump and Moon Jae-in immediately responded with their own
"charm counter-offensive." All sides stood down from threats and
threatening actions, and had a sort of love-in, with various summit
meetings and actions like clearing land mines along the South-North
border.

It was quickly apparent to everyone that North Korea had no intention
to denuclearize under any circumstances. Nonetheless, the charm
offensive/counter-offensive has been a great convenience that has met
the needs for all sides:

• North Korea has been able to continue nuclear and
  ballistic message development in secret, with only the restriction
  that no open testing would be possible.
  
  
• North Korea could use the charm offensive to pressure the the US
  to agree to remove sanctions without denuclearization. North Korea
  was partially successful in this objective in the sense that China,
  Russia and other countries are trading with North Korea in violation
  of the sanctions, thus mitigating their effectiveness.
  
  
• Moon Jae-in used the charm offensive to pursue a policy
  of normalizing relations with the North, in order to satisfy
  his domestic constituency.
• Donald Trump used the charm offensive to be able to
  claim throughout the campaigning for the midterm elections that
  he was keeping the North from testing nuclear weapons and
  ballistic missiles.

It was pretty clear to everyone (except the news media and the general
public) within a month from the beginning of the charm offensive that
it was all a show -- that North Korea would never denuclearize, and
that Trump would never agree to reduce the sanctions. But all sides
kept it up because it solve their immediate political problems by
"kicking the can down the road" -- that is, masking and hiding
problems and postponing them until later.

The charm offensive has been going on for almost a year. Could
it go on for another year? Maybe. That's the kind of chaotic
political decision that cannot be predicted.

President Trump has said that he's in no hurry, implying that
he's willing to continue the charm offensive indefinitely if
necessary. However, it's the North that is suffering under
the sanctions, Kim Jong-un seems to be increasingly impatient
about the sanctions.

So it's really up to Kim how long the charm offensive /
counter-offensive will last. He may decide that sanctions will never
be lifted anyway, and so there's no point in waiting. He may take
action next week, next month or next year. All we can do is wait.
Yonhap (S. Korea) and Reuters and Defense News

Related Articles:

• North Korea plays hardball to get sanctions lifted (12-Nov-2018)
  
  
• China, Russia demand that that some North Korea sanctions be lifted (29-Sep-2018)
  
  
• US imposes new North Korea sanctions on Chinese and Russian shipping companies (17-Aug-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Moon Jae-in, South Korea

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Nov-18 World View -- Cuba to pull thousands of doctors out of Brazil after right-wing Jair Bolsonaro wins election

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cuba to pull thousands of doctors out of Brazil after right-wing Jair Bolsonaro wins election
  
• Jair Bolsonaro moves Brazil sharply to the right
  

****
**** Cuba to pull thousands of doctors out of Brazil after right-wing Jair Bolsonaro wins election
****


Campaign tweet from October supporting Jair Bolsonaro's policies on women and gun ownership (BBC)

Cuba announced that it will pull thousands of its doctors from Brazil,
in reaction to demands by the newly elected Jair Bolsonaro, who takes
office as president on January 1.

There are 11,400 Cuban doctors working in Brazil under the Programa
Mais Médicos (PMM, More Doctors Program) that was set up in 2013 by
left-wing former president Dilma Rousseff.

The Mais Médicos program was hailed as a huge success by Rousseff's
supporters. During the first two years, 18,240 physicians were hired,
including 11,429 Cubans, 5,274 Brazilians and the remaining 1,537 of
other nationalities. They works in more than four thousand
municipalities throughout Brazil, and treat 63 million Brazilians.
Many of these were poor and indigenous communities where no doctor had
previously been available. These included communities of former
African-Brazilian slaves (Quilombos), to the indigenous population,
the landless peasants and those living in the Northeastern outback.

However, from the beginning Mais Médicos was extremely controversial.
The doctors complained that they were being forced to work as slaves.
Brazil has to pay $3,300 per month to the Cuban government, but only
one-quarter of that money goes to the doctor, giving him barely enough
to live on, and not enough to send money back to his family in Cuba as
remittances. Cuba receives about $250 million per year for its
doctors in Brazil. Losing that money will be a hard blow for Cuba's
ailing economy.

The Cuban government has reported it earns more than $12.5 billion a
year from the work of its professionals abroad. Most of that money
comes from Venezuela, where tens of thousands of Cubans are working,
including 21,000 health workers.

Cuba prevents the doctor's family from joining him in Brazil or
Venezuela, and the family suffered consequences if the doctor doesn't
do as ordered by Cuba. By keeping control of the family, Cuba
prevents the doctors from defecting. Rousseff was removed from office
in 2016 on corruption charges, and her Mais Médicos has grown in
controversy insce then.

Many Cuban doctors do defect and request asylum in Brazil. In the
past, they could apply for asylum in the United States under the Cuban
Medical Professional Parole (CMPP) Program, set up by George Bush in
2006. However, this program was terminated by Barack Obama on January
12, 2017.

Upon being elected, President-elect Jair Bolsonaro threatened to break
off diplomatic relations with Cuba over Mais Médicos, because of the
near-slave conditions under which the doctors have to work. He
demanded that the doctors receive the full $3,300 amount that Brazil
now pays to Cuba, and that the doctors' families be permitted to join
the doctors in Brazil. He also questioned the qualifications of the
Cuban doctors and said they would have to renew their licenses in
Brazil.

Cuba’s Health Ministry rejected Bolsonaro’s comments as “contemptuous
and threatening” to the presence of our doctors” in a statement
announcing its withdrawal from the program, adding, "These
unacceptable conditions make it impossible to maintain the presence of
Cuban professionals in the program."

Brazil's Ministry of Health announced that it will launch a public
notice in the coming days for Brazilian doctors who want to fill the
vacancies to be left by Cuban professionals. Reuters and Miami Herald and Rio Times (18-Sep-2015) and Miami Herald (12-Mar-2018) and Rio Times (15-Nov)

****
**** Jair Bolsonaro moves Brazil sharply to the right
****

Jair Bolsonaro is being called "Trump of the Tropics" because of his
incendiary comments and because many of his policies are perceived to
be similar to those of Donald Trump.

He's sending out a tough anti-crime message, and he's supporting wider
ownership of guns. This tough message has won him increased support
among women. He's strongly opposed to the legalization of abortion,
which won the support of many evangelical Christians.

For the economy, he makes the usual proposals to reduce government
waste. He also promised to reduce state intervention in the economy.
He originally proposed selling off parts of state-run Petrobras oil
company, but later backed off.

On foreign policy, he has suggested that Brazil pull out of the 2015
Paris agreement on climate change. He favors moving Brazils embassy
Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and closing the Palestinian embassy
in Brazil. He has also said that his first foreign trip as president
would be to Israel. BBC (28-Oct)
and BBC (23-Oct)

Related articles:

• Maduro recalls Brazil ambassador over Dilma Rousseff 'coup' (15-May-2016)
  
  
• 'Lost tribe' found in Amazon forest on border of Peru and Brazil (01-Jun-2008)
  
  
• Colombia and Brazil close borders with Venezuela amid talk of possible military intervention (14-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Venezuela's economic crisis is hitting Cuba hard (06-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cuba, Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro,
Programa Mais Médicos, PMM, More Doctors Program,
Dilma Rousseff, Quilombos, Venezuela

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Nov-18 World View -- APEC meeting ends in disarry after harsh US-China disagreements

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• APEC meeting ends in disarry after harsh US-China disagreements
  
• Aggressive behavior of China's officials raises concerns about security
  

****
**** APEC meeting ends in disarry after harsh US-China disagreements
****


Xi Jinping and Mike Pence

Four days ago, I described the approaching meeting of the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit, being held in Port
Moresby, the capital city of Papua New Guinea (PNG) over the weekend
as a competition for influence between China and Australia.

There was indeed such a competition, but it was the competition
between China and the US that made the biggest news. The media
were predicting that the US presence would be almost minimal
because president Donald Trump was not going to attend.

But in Trump's place was vice president Mike Pence who spoke very
harshly about China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its use of
debt trap diplomacy in infrastructure projects that were intended to
benefit China more than the countries that are being put into debt.
The result was that for the first time ever, the APEC meeting ended
with no joint communiqué.

Pence's speech included a joke about "a constricting belt or a one-way
road":

<QUOTE>"Too often they come with strings attached and lead to
staggering debt. Do not accept foreign debt that could compromise
your sovereignty. Just like America, always put your country
first. ...

Know that the United states offers a better option. We don't
drown our partners in a sea of debt. We don't coerce or
compromise your independence. The United States deals openly and
fairly. We do not offer a constricting belt or a one-way road.

When you partner with us, we partner with you. and we all
prosper."<END QUOTE>

China's president Xi Jinping spoke before Pence did, but he
responded to much of what Pence said:

<QUOTE>"Mankind has once again reached a crossroads. Which
direction should we choose - confrontation or cooperation?
Openness or closing one's door? Win-win progress or zero sum
game. The interest of all countries and the future of mankind
hinge on the choices that we make. ...

Let me make this clear. The Belt and Road Initiative is an open
platform for cooperation. It is guided by the principles of
consultation and cooperation for a share of the benefit. It is
not designed to assure any hidden geopolitical agenda. It is not
targeted against anyone, and it does not exclude
anyone."<END QUOTE>

China has been losing a great deal of credibility over debt trap
diplomacy because more examples keep emergency. Everybody has now
heard of the Seaport of Hambantota, a Chinese infrastructure project
in Sri Lanka, funded with a loan from China, with almost all the labor
performed by Chinese workers, and all parts and services imported from
China, so that the loan money never benefited Sri Lanka's industries.
Sri Lanka was unable to repay the loan, and in December of last year,
Sri Lanka was forced to give the seaport away to China. So now Sri
Lanka has a large seaport owned by China, and a large Chinese enclave
with hundreds of Chinese families, with no benefit to itself and to
its own people.

China's loans and aid in the Pacific region have gone from almost zero
to $1.8 billion in the last decade, and China has pledged to spend $8
billion more.

Fiji owes China half a billion dollars, and Tonga now owes more than
$160 million, or one-third of its GDP. Several other Pacific Island
countries are also overwhelmed with debt to China.

There has been major drama involving China and Tonga in the last few
days. Tonga has been begging China for relief from its debts for
several months, with no success. But then a few days ago Tonga's
prime minister called on the Pacific Islands to band together against
China. Tonga backtracked on this call within a few days, but the
reasons were unclear. And then it emerged on Sunday that China was
granting Tonga a five-year reprieve in paying back the loan.

As part of that announcement, China will lend Tonga more money for yet
another BRI infrastructure project. Reuters and Australian Broadcasting (16-Nov) and BBC and Australian Broadcasting

****
**** Aggressive behavior of China's officials raises concerns about security
****

There were several incidents of extremely aggressive behavior
of Chinese diplomats attending the APEC conference.

On Saturday, four Chinese officials barged into the office of PNG's
foreign minister Rimbink Pato, after they had been denied a private
meeting. Security was called to the office and the officials had to
be forced from the room. As a result, additional police were
stationed at the government building to guard Pato's office.

China demanded the meeting because it wanted to make sure that the
draft version of the final communiqué (which, in the end, was never
issued anyway) contained language that was satisfactory to China. The
US wanted to including language, directed at China without mentioning
China, calling for reforms to world trading rules to target predatory
trade conduct and demanding state-owned enterprises be forced to
compete on a level playing field with private businesses. China
apparently barged into Pato's office to make sure that the communiqué
did not contain the US language.

The second issue is that Chinese officials strictly controlled media
access to Xi Jinping, even ejecting PNG journalists who had been
invited to cover a meeting between Xi Jinping and some Pacific Island
leaders. Apparently Xi Jinping prevented any but Chinese media from
having any opportunity to ask a question. One can only guess why.
Australian Broadcasting and Bloomberg and Australian Broadcasting

Related Articles

• China and Australia compete for influence at APEC meeting in Papua New Guinea (PNG) (15-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Australia passes foreign influence laws, targeting China (29-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Australia-China relations in crisis after revelation of Chinese bribery scandal (24-May-2018)
  
  
• New book documents extensive Chinese infiltration into Australia's organizations (26-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Concerns grow over China's covert infiltration into New Zealand's government (16-Feb-2018)
  
  
• China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea (16-Dec-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Papua New Guinea, PNG, China, Australia,
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders' Summit, APEC,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Xi Jinping, Mike Pence,
Sri Lanka, Seaport of Hambantota, Tonga, Fiji,
Rimbink Pato

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Nov-18 World View -- Migrant caravans creating chaos and hostility in Mexico

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of migrants overwhelm Mexican cities to Tijuana
  
• People of Mexico are increasingly split between xenophobia and sympathy toward migrants
  

****
**** Thousands of migrants overwhelm Mexican cities to Tijuana
****


Honduran migrants arrive at US border fence (Reuters)

The United States closed off northbound traffic for several hours at
the border crossing from Tijuana Mexico into San Ysidro, California.
One of two pedestrian crossings were also closed, to prevent a mass
rush of migrants across the border.

This is the busiest border crossing from Mexico to the United States.
Closing the border crossing inconvenienced many of the about 110,000
people who cross the border every day in 40,000 vehicles, in order to
commute to work.

The border crossing had to be closed for several hours to permit
the installation of movable, wire-topped barriers.

Tensions at the border have been building as nearly 3,000 migrants
from a caravan arrived in Tijuana in recent days, the first of a
series of migrant caravans that began in October. The federal
government estimates the number of migrants could soon swell to
10,000, as additional migrant caravans arrive. The migrants are
arriving from Central American countries.

The migrants are planning to apply for asylum in the United States at
the San Ysidro portal. However, US border inspectors are processing
only about 100 asylum claims per day.

Tijuana officials converted a municipal gymnasium and recreational
complex into a shelter to keep migrants out of public spaces. The
city's privately run shelters have a maximum capacity of 700. The
municipal complex can hold up to 3,000.

Tijuana Mayor Juan Manuel Gastelum has called the migrants' arrival an
"avalanche" that the city is ill-prepared to handle, calculating that
they will be in Tijuana for at least six months as they wait to file
asylum claims. Gastelum has appealed to the federal government for
more assistance, but so far the government in Mexico City has refused.

Because Tijuana's resources are overwhelmed, cities "upstream" along
the caravan route are slowing down the flow.

The city of Mexicali is 100 miles away along the highway to Tijuana.
There are 1,300 Honduran migrants crowded into shelters in Mexicali,
waiting to travel to Tijuana. However, Mexican police this weekend
blocked their buses from proceeding to Tijuana, because the latter
city is already full of migrants.

The group began as 7,000 migrants who left San Pedro Sula, Honduras,
about a month ago, fleeing poverty, gang violence and lawlessness.
The 1,300 who arrived in Mexicali are considering options, including
making the extremely dangerous journey to Tijuana on foot. Hundreds
more are expected in Mexicali next week.

Officials in Guadalajara, the capital city of Jalisco state, about
1,200 miles south of Tijuana, were apparently played a cruel trick by
government officials. The government of Jalisco had promised to
provide transportation to Nayrit, 120 miles away, for nearly 6,000
migrants staying in Guadalajara. Instead, they provided buses for
only 2,000, and then forced them off the bus on the outskirts of
Jalisco, still over 62 miles away from the closest town in Nayarit.
Then they blocked the other 3,000 migrants from receiving food
packages, saying that "they are only for those who are leaving on the
buses." Instead, the state will provide water, some food and escorts
at nine points along the main highway leading through the state to
help ensure the migrants don't have to stop.

And in Mexico City, authorities closed a shelter at a sports complex
that had once housed thousands of migrants. The remaining 650 migrants
from the third, mainly Salvadoran, caravan were taken to a Roman
Catholic pilgrimage hostel at the Basilica of Guadalupe. The city said
the hostel would be warmer. AP and Palm Springs Desert Sun (18-Nov) and Regeneración Radio (15-Nov)

****
**** People of Mexico are increasingly split between xenophobia and sympathy toward migrants
****

Although most Mexicans have been sympathetic and supportive toward the
central American migrants, and have provided food and water to them
along their travels, there is a growing minority of Mexicans,
especially in the northern states close to the US border, who are
expressing hostile xenophobic attitudes towards the migrants.

Over the weekend, a few hundred Tijuanenses gathered in Tijuana's
high-end Rio area to protest the migrants. Demonstrators held signs
reading "No illegals," "No to the invasion" and "Mexico First." Many
wore the country's red, white and green national soccer jersey and
vigorously waved Mexican flags. The crowd often slipped into chants of
"Ti-jua-na!" and "Me-xi-co!" They sang the national anthem several
times. One was quoted as saying, "We want the caravan to go, they are
invading us. They should have come into Mexico correctly, legally, but
they came in like animals."

A Facebook page called “Tijuana against the migrant caravan,” which
promotes the rejection of migrants. Five days after it was created,
the group already had 4,000 followers. Through social media, local
citizens are requesting for foreigners to be taken out of the city,
with slogans such as “Defend your country, kill a Honduran.” The group
members argued that migrants were criminals, and that there were drug
addicts, gang members, and even murderers among their ranks.

As long-time readers are aware, nationalism and xenophobia have been
increasing in countries around the world, as the world goes deeper
into a generational Crisis era, and the survivors of World War II, who
understood the dangers of nationalism and xenophobia, are now all
pretty much gone.

At the same time, as the global population has been growing faster
than the global supply of food and other resources, poverty has been
increasing, leading to mass migrations in many parts of the world,
including Latin America, Europe, Africa and Asia. Some of these mass
migrations are intentionally caused by leaders of countries, including
Syria, Myanmar (Burma), Venezuela, and Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC). These mass migrations tax the resources of the countries
receiving the migrants, and might lead to a regional war that could
spiral into a larger war at any time. These mass migrations are
expected to become larger each year.

With regard to the influx of Hondurans into Mexico, there has not been
a major war between Honduras and Mexico in recent centuries, so the
bouts of anti-Honduran xenophobia that are occurring today in Tijuana
and elsewhere are unlikely to spiral into something more serious.
NPR and El Universal and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

• Venezuela's refugees crisis soars, as economic disaster reaches new levels (09-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Latin American countries open their borders to migrants from Socialist Venezuela (06-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Thousands of Haitians living in Miami scheduled for deportation in January (14-Oct-2017)
  
  
• US will deport tens of thousands of Haitian immigrants surging toward California (25-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Thousands of migrants flee to Canada, fearing deportation in the US (04-Aug-2017)
  
  
• History of Haiti (04-Mar-2004)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, San Ysidro, California,
Mexico, Tijuana, Juan Manuel Gastelum,
Mexicali, San Pedro Sula, Honduras, el Salvador,
Guadalajara, Jalisco, Nayrit, Mexico City, Basilica of Guadalupe,
Syria, Myanmar, Burma, Venezuela, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC

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John J. Xenakis
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Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Nov-18 World View -- Philippines president Duterte renews policy of China appeasement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Philippines president Duterte renews policy of China appeasement
  
• New survey shows that Philippine people are anti-Chinese, pro-American
  
• China's 'temper tantrum diplomacy' at the APEC summit meeting
  

****
**** Philippines president Duterte renews policy of China appeasement
****


Xi Jinping arrives in Manila on Tuesday and receives military honors. (Manila Times)

On Tuesday, China's president Xi Jinping visited Philippines president
Rodrigo R. Duterte to sign 29 agreements. The agreements give China
permission to drill for oil and gas in the Philippines territorial
waters.

Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte has never made a secret of
the reason why he has repeatedly acceded to the demands of China's
president Xi Jinping, and why he's been giving up Philippines'
sovereignty to Scarborough Shoal and to other parts of the South China
Sea: He gave in to China because China threatened him militarily if he
didn't comply.

In fact, in May of last year, Duterte recounted a conversation with Xi Jinping that made the threat explicit.
Xi said that if the Philippines drills for oil
and gas in its own territorial waters, then China will go to war.
Duterte concluded:

<QUOTE>"Are they willing to fight? Because if they are
willing to fight, we are. But why would I do that? It will result
in a massacre and it will just destroy everything."<END QUOTE>

So Duterte appeased China and gave in to all of China's demands.

Another part of Duterte's 2016 agreement with Xi was that China would
provide $24 billion in loans and investment for infrastructure
overhaul. Duterte used this promise of money from China to sell the
appeasement to the people of the Philippines. However, a recent
analysis revealed that China has only come through with a small
portion of the promised investments. According to one Philippines
analyst: "Duterte’s naivety with China has been a slam dunk strategic
coup for China, no doubt about it."

The 29 agreements that Xi and Duterte signed on Tuesday are being
described as "broad or vague, from cooperating in education, culture
and industrial park development to jointly promoting infrastructure,
agriculture cooperatives and establishing sanitation protocols for
shipping coconuts." Of the 38 projects that Xi and Duterte agreed to
in 2016, only four of them were among the commitments made on Tuesday.

Of particular significance is that one of the 29 deals is related to
oil and gas development in Philippines territorial waters. The
Philippines should receive 100% of the benefit, but China agreed to
enter into a 60-40 joint exploration arrangement with the Philippines.
Under the agreement, Manila will receive 60% of the oil and natural
gas deposits while Beijing will get the remaining 40%.

It remains to be seen whether China will honor that agreement, or will
renege on it and demand 100% of the oil and gas deposits for itself.
Reuters and Manila Times and Reuters and Bloomberg


****
**** New survey shows that Philippine people are anti-Chinese, pro-American
****

As I wrote in 2016, Duterte's "flip-flop" towards China couldn't last
because polls show that 54% of the Philippine people have a favorable
view of China, while 92% have a favorable view of the United States.
Nonetheless, Duterte's flip-flop still makes sense after Xi Jinping's
threat to massacre the Philippines.

A new survey released on Tuesday by the Philippines social research
institution Social Weather Stations (SWS) shows that anti-China
sentiment continues to be extremely high.

• Opposition to government’s inaction on China’s intrusion in
  claimed territories rises to 84%, up from 81% in June.
  
  
• 86% say that it is right to strengthen the military capability of
  the Philippines, especially the Navy. This is up by 6 points from 80%
  in June.
  
  
• 87% say it is important that the Philippines regains control of
  the islands occupied by China in the South China Sea, up from 69% in
  June.
  
  
• 65% are aware of China's abuses of Filipino fishermen, when these
  they were fishing in Philippines territorial waters. China's coast
  guard forced Philippines fishermen to turn over their catch to the
  Chinese.
  
  
• Percentage of Philippine people having "much trust" in each
  country: USA 70%, Japan 50%, Malaysia 40%, Israel 38%, China
  27%.

This survey shows a great deal of trust and confidence in the United
States, but a great deal of distrust in China, which is not surprising
in view of China's increasingly belligerent and illegal military
actions in the South China Sea. Duterte's policies of increasing
appeasement of China's demands is creating a potentially explosive
situation that could lead to conflict in any of a number of scenarios.

And by the way, other surveys have shown that the Chinese people have
a great deal of contempt for the people of the Philippines. In 2012,
a Chinese television anchor 'accidentally' claimed
that the Philippines "is China's inherent
territory and the Philippines belongs to Chinese sovereignty, this is
an indisputable fact." The statement was later retracted, but it
illustrates the state of mind of the Chinese people toward the
Philippines.

As I've written many times, it's a core principle of Generational
Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by
masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of
politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the
attitudes of the people. So in this case, war is inevitable because
the Chinese people want a war.

Rodrigo Duterte and Donald Trump have something in common. They are
both aware that China is headed for war with their respective
countries. In both cases, their policies are little understood by the
mainstream media, but they make perfect sense when seen as an attempt,
perhaps even a desperate attempt, to try to prevent that war, and the
resulting world war, from occurring. And as I've said before, I'm not
going to criticize policies whose purpose is to prevent a world war,
even if a world war is 100% certain. Social Weather Survey (Philippines) and Coconuts Manila

****
**** China's 'temper tantrum diplomacy' at the APEC summit meeting
****

In my recent article on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
Leaders’ Summit, held in Port Moresby, the capital city of Papua New
Guinea (PNG), over the weekend, I described some incidents of
extremely arrogant, belligerent behavior of Chinese officials at the
meeting. ( "19-Nov-18 World View -- APEC meeting ends in disarray after harsh US-China disagreements"
)

However, it turns out that China's behavior was far worse than I had
described. An article by Josh Rogin, who traveled with vice president
Mike Pence to the conference, described China's "temper tantrum
diplomacy, which was a series of aggressive, bullying, paranoid and
weird stunts to try to exert dominance and pressure everyone into
succumbing to its demands.

China's "weird stunts" included the following:

• China filibustered to prevent a joint statement from being
  issued. When it was, to the disgust of the other diplomats, Chinese
  officials broke out in applause.
  
  
• China banned all but Chinese media from Xi's meeting with leaders
  of eight Pacific nations, even though many of the international
  journalists already had credentials.<?li>
  
  
• Internet service crashed just as Mike Pence started speaking, and
  mysteriously came back on just as Pence was finishing. It's believed
  that the Chinese were behind this, but it can't be proven.
  
  
• They barged into the foreign ministry office, and only left when
  the police arrive.
  
  
• They barged into other meetings, and yelled about countries
  “scheming” against China.

The more that I write about China, the more the message always comes
through of the extreme contempt that the Chinese people have for other
people -- not just Americans, but also people from Philippines,
Vietnam, Japan, India, Australia, and pretty much everywhere else.
This is an extremely dangerous situation that will not continue in
this way for much longer. Washington Post and White House

Related Articles

• China defends million-prisoner 'reeducation camps' and Sinicization of Islam in Xinjiang (14-Oct-2018)
  
  
• China's claims to the South China Sea are amazingly vacuous (22-Sep-2018)
  
  
• New book documents extensive Chinese infiltration into Australia's organizations (26-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Tensions grow in Philippines as Duterte turns against China in South China Sea (11-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  
  
• China's media 'accidentally' claims Philippines as part of China (10-May-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xi Jinping, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague,
South China Sea, Scarborough Shoal,
Social Weather Stations, SWS, Japan, Malaysia, Israel,
Josh Rogin, Mike Pence,
Papua New Guinea, PNG, China, Australia,
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders' Summit, APEC

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Tim Randal Walker]

I wouldn't be surprised if Japan is working on a nuclear deterrent.

[pbrower2a]

(11-21-2018, 11:38 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I wouldn't be surprised if Japan is working on a nuclear deterrent.

Japan threatened to develop a nuke program if North Korea got one back when the Soviet Union still existed. Neither China nor the Soviet Union protested.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-Nov-18 World View -- Fourteen companies in France on trial over Iraq war oil-for-food corruption

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Fourteen companies in France on trial over Iraq war oil-for-food corruption
  
• Iraq War and the 58 Year Hypothesis
  

****
**** Fourteen companies in France on trial over Iraq war oil-for-food corruption
****


Saddam Hussein in 2000 (AFP)

Fourteen major French companies went on trial on Wednesday in the
Appeals Court of Paris for taking part in a vast corruption scheme
where hundreds of companies around the world paid $1.5 billion to
Saddam Hussein in bribes and corrupt payments to win oil contracts in
the Iraq War "Oil-for-food" program.

Saddam Hussein, as president of Iraq, had a long history of developing
and using WMDs (weapons of mass destruction). Saddam had a
long-standing program to develop nuclear weapons, and in 1981, Israeli
war strikes destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor that could have been
used to develop nuclear weapons. In 1988, towards the end of the
Iran/Iraq war, Saddam had used mustard gas chemical weapons in 1988 to
kill Kurds and Iranians.

In 1990, Hussein's Iraq invaded and annexed the country Kuwait,
resulting in the first Gulf War, which ended up ejecting Iraq from
Kuwait, but left Saddam Hussein in power, still able to produce WMDs.
In the years that followed, Saddam continued to develop WMDs, and
refused to permit UN inspectors to enter Iraq. In 1998, the Bill
Clinton administration ordered air strikes against Iraq because it
refused to cooperate with United Nations weapons inspectors.

The second Iraq War began in 2003 at a time when almost everyone in
the world believed that Saddam was continuing WMD development, and the
CIA reported that the evidence supported this. During all this time
from 1991-2003, Iraq was heavily sanctioned in the hope of ending the
WMD program.

Saddam always complained that the crippling sanctions were hurting
ordinary Iraqi people, so in 1996 instituted the "oil-for-food"
program. Under this program, Saddam could sell a limited amount of
oil to other countries, and use the money to buy food and humanitarian
goods for the Iraqi people. The United Nations was to serve as a
watchdog.

Saddam corrupted the system by demanding that any company that wants
to buy oil under this program would be invoiced for 110% of the actual
cost of the oil. The 100% portion would be used to purchase food, and
the other 10% would go into Saddam's own bank account. A UN inquiry
led by former US Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker alleged in 2005
that the 2,200 companies involved in the programme had paid a total of
$1.8 billion in kickbacks to win supply deals. Of those, 180 were
French.

In 2016, French oil company Total was ordered to pay a $827,000 fine,
the maximum allowed under French law, for corruption linked to the UN
oil-for-food program. Other French companies were cleared of the
charges because the situation did not match the offenses that French
anti-corruption law is designed to prosecute. However, prosecutors
hope that the judges in the trials that began on Wednesday for 14
companies will look at the situation differently, and will convict
them.

The 14 companies include Renault Trucks, Legrand and Schneider
Electric. The trial is expected to conclude by the end of November.
Radio France International and Le Figaro (Paris) (Trans) and Deutsche Welle (2-Jul-2008) and Radio France International (26-Feb-2016)

****
**** Iraq War and the 58 Year Hypothesis
****

The Iraq War has been called the worst war in American history, mainly
by people with deficient reasoning skills that they can't figure out
that without the war we would never have known that Saddam was not
developing WMDs. After the war, President George Bush was able to
leverage that discovery to convince Iran and Saudi Arabia to end their
own WMD programs, and Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a
fatwa late in 2003 ending their nuclear program.

The most vocal opponents of launching the Iraq war in 2003 were also
those who were making huge amounts of money in corrupt practices in
the oil-for-food program.

Kojo Annan, the son of Secretary-General Kofi Annan of the United
Nations, was heavily involved in the scheme through the Swiss company
Cotecna, which won a large oil-for-food contract.

Russia benefited the most from oil-for-food corruption, winning near a
third of all the oil deals. Paul Volcker's UN inquiry identified the
people involved, but none was prosecuted because the Russians refused
to cooperate.

France was in second place in benefiting from the corrupt scheme. For
years, we've had to listen to French commentators express moral
superiority because they opposed the Iraq War. Actually, they were
the worst of all, since the advisors to France's president Jacques
Chirac were heavily involved in the Iraq corruption. Chirac would
have happily let Saddam kill thousands of people with WMDs, as long as
Chirac kept making money from it.

There was something really remarkable about the 2003 Iraq War in that
there was almost universal panic, an unrealistic panic, about Saddam's
development of WMDs. We don't get nearly as panicky today about
Bashar al-Assad's use of Sarin gas in Syria, or Russia's use of
Novichok nerve agent to kill people in Britain.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the 2003 Iraq war was
an example of the "58 year hypothesis," which says that when some sort
of calamitous event occurs, then some sort of panic will occur exactly
58 years later. That's because 5-10 year old children at the time of
the calamitous event all retire or die or lose power, all at once, 58
years later, and it's this cohort of people who panic, because they
suddenly realize that they'll be gone and the younger generations
won't be prepared. (See lengthier explanation at "The 58 Year Hypothesis"
)

So the 2003 panic over WMDs in Iraq occurred 58 years after the use of
nuclear weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Another example of the 58 year hypothesis was the swine flu panic that
occurred in 1976. Anyone alive at that time will remember the
nationwide panic that occurred, and the demands for development of a
swine flu vaccine, which turned out to be a disaster. That was 58
years after the devastating Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 that killed
millions of people.

Another example was the 1987 stock market panic. If fizzled very
quickly because it wasn't a real panic. It occurred 58 years after
the 1929 stock market crash.

Another example is Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 2006. Hezbollah
abducted two Israeli soldiers near the Lebanon border. Israel went
into a state of total panic, and launched the war in Lebanon within
four hours, with no plan and no objectives. The war was a total
disaster for Israel. It occurred 58 years after the genocidal war
between Jews and Arabs in Palestine in 1948.

The 58 year hypothesis has turned out to be one of the most
fascinating discoveries in the development of generational theory. It
certainly doesn't explain everything, or even many things, but it does
make sense of things like the "false panics" that occurred in 1976,
1987, 2003, and in Israel in 2006. Economist (13-Mar-2008) and Council of Foreign Relations (11-May-2006) and AP (Jan 2008)

Related Articles

• Israel reveals intelligence coup on Iran's nuclear weapons program (03-May-2018)
  
  
• Economists baffled on 30th anniversary of 1987 stock market panic (20-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Generational Dynamics historical analysis of the violence in Iraq (18-Jun-2014)
  
  
• The Iraq war may be related to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. (17-Feb-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Saddam Hussein,
France, Iraq war, oil-for-food program, Israel,
Iran/Iraq War, mustard gas, Kuwait, Paul Volcker,
Total, Renault Trucks, Legrand, Schneider Electric
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei,
Kojo Annan, Kofi Annan, Russia, Jacques Chirac,
58 Year Hypothesis, Japan, Hiroshima, Nagasaki,
Swine Flu, Spanish Flu, Lebanon, Hezbollah

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

58 years is roughly three-fourths of a long human life. There will be people active and prominent into their 80's, if not many, and they will be important. But after about age 84, participation in public life is typically over as senility, general debility, or outright death take even those who have had good fortune and good habits. 58 years might be more relevant as a divide in bureaucratic behavior (that is a commonplace working life that begins with the first teenage job and ends in retirement), but probably not in politics or high culture.

Howe and Strauss suggest roughly an 80-year cycle, and this cycle corresponds with the time between the formation of childhood memories and the extinction of those memories. Those childhood memories, even if subconscious, control much. Someone brought up dirt-poor who gets fantastically rich typically behaves like a poor person who lucked into money. Just look at the typical winners of lotteries: they don't really change their lives that much, and simply do what they used to dream of when they were flat broke. They do not learn to prefer a sailboat (elite) to a motorcycle (prole). They do not replace country music (prole) with classical music (elite). They do not go from educational inadequacy (prole) to having the wisdom that one associates with attending an elite school. More significant are the assumptions that one makes about economics and human relationships. Are people overall trustworthy? Is the government an ally or an enemy? Is education empowering (elite) or intimidating (prole)?

I'm going to suggest that if your panics happen every fifty-eight years or so after a defining event in history (the one-day plunge of the stock market in 1989 being almost 58 years after the far-worse stock market crash of 1929, the later one was a short blip. 1929 was the end of a 3T, and 1987 was early in a 3T. The day that will live in Infamy (December 7, 1941) was called to attention on September 11, 2001 almost sixty years later (close enough) but the former event led to decisive action at the expense of consumerism and hedonism that Americans were beginning to enjoy as the Great Depression showed signs of abating. In 1941 the President told us to quite buying stuff because the war mattered far more; in 2001 the President told us to "go shopping" and "travel", exactly the opposite.

The analogy to the current time with 58 years ago is to the portents of an Awakening Era at the end of a 1T. 58 years ago the Beach Boys were the hottest thing going, and "Beatlemania" was about to start. The President was still Dwight Eisenhower. Does that sound like today? Not in the least! American public life was still placid, much unlike the storms in public life today.

So how is the 80-year cycle relevant? I compare the Double-Zero decade, with its bad politics, its witless mass culture (Harry Potter novels perhaps excepted), and a speculative boom sure to go bust, with the 1920s. The novel Babbitt makes far more sense in the Double-Zero Decade than in any decade other than the 1920s. Real-estate hustles? They died out in the 1930s, with people leery of snarfing up bargains that had been devalued so dramatically at the end of the stock market bubble. 1940s? We had a war going on, and speculation was not war production or otherwise essential for personal survival until 1945, and after 1945, real estate investment was largely (as throughout the American High) with building modest houses that people actually could afford. 1960s and 1970s? Boomers denouncing the materialism of the time were finding cheap housing that had largely been abandoned in the 1930s and had ended up as slums so that they could spend the difference on 'finding themselves'. 1980s and 1990s? There were still too many old people who caviled at the idea of real-estate hucksters selling overpriced housing to people who could not afford it. People with adult memories of the 1920s were still around. By now, the earliest childhood memories of adults in large numbers are those of the late 1930s.

If one is nearly 100 years old one might remember the heady speculation "The Good Lord isn't making any more real estate -- so buy now!" with talk of a new era of incredible prosperity, only to go through a time when nobody was buying. Such people now have almost exclusively fossil influence upon American life. Fifteen years ago such people were in their middle 80s or earlier, and the real estate hucksters could dismiss the concerns of people that bubbles invariably burst, and the bigger the bubble the bigger would be the burst.

We tend to find out the hard way what people learned the hard way about eighty years earlier because we neglect the fair warnings from people best described as the last to know. .

[John J. Xenakis]

The one way that the 58-year hypothesis is firmly related to
the saeculum is that the fourth turning always begins exactly
58 years after the climax of the preceding crisis war.

Beyond that, there's no real reason why there has to be a
relationship. The Spanish Flu pandemic was an act of nature
that occurred in 1918, resulting in the Swine Flu panic
of 1976. Those events stand on their own.

Another possible example is the Salem Witch Trials. Here's
something that I first posted in 2007:

Roger Williams and the Salem Witch Trials

In my previous posting, I wrote the following:

Quote:Salem Witch Trials of 1692. Four teenage girls appeared to
have epileptic fits, and accused several neighbors of witchcraft.
Panic ensued, and by the time it was all over, dozens of people had
been jailed and 20 had died.

This has all the earmarks of a false panic. Does anyone know of
anything special that happened in New England in 1634?

It turns out that there was a really major event in Salem in 1634:
The Pastor, Roger Williams, was banished from Salem for making
controversial remarks about the Church.

What happened isn't the stuff of major catastrophes, however. On the
other hand, maybe what looks like a simple personnel change today was
much more traumatic centuries ago.

Here's the summary:

Wikipedia Wrote:> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Willi...ologian%29

> Roger Williams (December 21, 1603–April 1, 1683) was an English
> theologian, a notable proponent of the separation of Church and
> State, an advocate for fair dealings with Native Americans,
> founder of the city of Providence, Rhode Island and co-founder of
> the colony of Rhode Island. He is the originator of either the
> first or second Baptist church established in America. ...

> In the summer of 1633, Williams arrived in Salem and became
> unofficial assistant to Pastor Skelton. In August, 1634, (Skelton
> having died), he became acting pastor and entered almost
> immediately into controversies with the Massachusetts authorities
> that in a few months resulted in his exile by law from Salem after
> being brought before the Salem Court for spreading "diverse, new,
> and dangerous opinions" that questioned the Church. The law
> exiling Williams was not repealed until 1936 when Bill 488 was
> passed by the Massachusetts House.

> He was formally set apart as pastor of the church about May,
> 1635, against the earnest protests of the Massachusetts
> authorities. An outline of the issues raised by Williams and
> uncompromisingly pressed includes the following:

> 1. He regarded the Church of England as apostate, and any kind of
> fellowship with it as grievous sin. He accordingly renounced
> communion not only with this church but with all who would not
> join with him in repudiating it.

> 2. He denounced the charter of the Massachusetts Company because
> it falsely represented the king of England as a Christian, and
> assumed that he had the right to give to his own subjects the land
> of the native Indians. He disapproved of "the unchristian oaths
> swallowed down" by the colonists "at their coming forth from Old
> England, especially in the superstitious Laud's time and
> domineering." He drew up a letter addressed to the King expressing
> his dissatisfaction with the charter and sought to secure for it
> the endorsement of prominent colonists. In this letter he is said
> to have charged King James I with blasphemy for calling Europe
> "Christendom" and to have applied to the reigning king some of
> the most opprobrious epithets in the Apocalypse.

> 3. Equally disquieting was Williams' opposition to the "citizens'
> oath," which magistrates sought to force upon the colonists in
> order to be assured of their loyalty. Williams maintained that it
> was Christ's sole prerogative to have his office established by
> oath, and that unregenerate men ought not in any case to be
> invited to perform any religious act. In opposing the oath
> Williams gained so much popular support that the measure had to be
> abandoned.

> 4. In a dispute between the Massachusetts Bay court and the Salem
> colony regarding the possession of a piece of land (Marblehead)
> claimed by the latter, the court offered to accede to the claims
> of Salem on condition that the Salem church make amends for its
> insolent conduct in installing Williams as pastor in defiance of
> the court and ministers. This demand involved the removal of the
> pastor. Williams regarded this proposal as an outrageous attempt
> at bribery and had the Salem church send to the other
> Massachusetts churches a denunciation of the proceeding and demand
> that the churches exclude the magistrates from membership. This
> act was sharply resented by magistrates and churches, and such
> pressure was brought to bear upon the Salem church as led a
> majority to consent to the removal of their pastor. He never
> entered the chapel again, but held religious services in his own
> house with his faithful adherents.

I also found some juicy stuff in a book: A Popular History of the
United States: From the First Discovery of the the western hemisphere
by the northmen, to the end of the first century of the union of the
states, By William Cullen Bryant, Sydney Howard Gay, Published 1876,
Sampson Low, United States.
http://books.google.com/books?id=bWEFAAA...1-PA542,M1

Bryant and Gay, page 542 Wrote:> But offences were sure to come. It was impossible for Mr. Williams
> to keep quiet; equally impossible, for the Council to let him
> alone. As a sort of preliminary of what was to come the colony was
> presently in a buzz, for he had persuaded the women of Salem that
> modesty required they should go veiled in public. Here was heresy.
> Cotton hastened to Salem to refute it, and his " insinuating and
> melting way " brought down every veil in the parish between the
> Sunday services. It was an exhaustive discourse, if we may trust
> Hubbard's report of it, and proved to the women of Salem that the
> Scriptural reasons were not applicable in their case; for many
> were wives and not virgins; none were like Tamar ; and none needed
> like Ruth, to hold up her veil before Boaz for a measure of
> barley. Not a woman's face was hidden on Sunday afternoon after
> this morning's" discourse. It was a great triumph over Roger
> Williams, and so pleased was Mr. Cotton with his success, that he
> carried the subject into the " Boston Lecture." But here Endicott
> met him in fierce debate, and so hot did it grow that the governor
> interfered to put an end to it.

There's no mention here of witchcraft, but as an incidental matter,
England outlawed witchcraft in 1641.

Eleven year old Abigail Williams was one of the girls who exhibited
the strange behavior leading to the Salem Witch Trials. I wondered
if she was related to Roger Williams, and found this:

Lindy Allen Wrote:> http://archiver.rootsweb.com/th/read/RIG...0929600752

> From: "Lindy Allen" <>
> Subject: [RIGENWEB-L] Roger Williams
> Date: Wed, 16 Jun 1999 23:25:52 -0700

> I am a direct relative of Roger Williams, the founder of
> Providence Rhode Island. I live in Washington State, and have
> traced my line through Abigail Williams who married Oliver Hazard
> Perry Clark. She is the daughter of Goliah Williams and Sarah
> Bickford. Goliah is the son of Squire Williams and Anne Potter.
> Squire is the son of Benoni Williams. Benoni is the son of Joseph
> Williams, who is the son of Daniel Williams, who is the son of
> Roger.

> I have done a lot of research, but I haven't found any further
> lineage from Abigail on down, in print. If anyone is interested, I
> can be reached either thru this forum, or by my private e-mail.

> Also, I need to get a real birth date for Roger. I have found so
> many dates, and none of them are the same.

> Lindy Allen

So all I have is a collection of jigsaw puzzle pieces that don't yet
quite fit together into a picture. But, at the very least, it is
very interesting that the Salem Witch Trials occurred 58 years after
a major event in the history of Salem.

[Tim Randal Walker]

I recall something I posted to the paleo 4T site, in which the stages of old age are described:

1. Young-old. Aged 65 to 75. Includes people into the earlier years of retirement. Semi-active if retired, active if still working. Still influential regarding public life, certainly as voters.

2. Middle-old. Aged 75 to 85 or 90. Rapid die off after the "fragility barrier" of age 80. Influence on public life fading.

I tend to think of people in their late seventies as being modestly active. After that, anybody who is even somewhat active (other than in the grandparent role) stands out as an exception.

3. Old-old. Age 90 and up. Virtually no influence on society. May be around to see younger people repeat the mistakes of the past.

[pbrower2a]

OK, so the Crisis of the next saeculum typically begins about twenty years after the end of the Crisis of the previous Saeculum. "Four score and seven years ago" is the time from an early point in the crisis of the American Revolution and a comparatively late stage of the Civil War. People may not have known that the Civil War Crisis was about to end, but that was roughly a year and a half away. The Confederacy could survive events as horrid as Sherman severing it from Chattanooga through Atlanta to Savanna, but it would not be until the Battle of Petersburg that the Confederacy collapsed.

If any phase of the saecular cycle is likely to be short, it is the Crisis -- which is best for all. Sixteen years from the Crash of '29 to V-J Day is more than enough for anyone. The Civil War Crisis took nine nasty years to complete from the Panic of 1857 to Appomattox.

[Tim Randal Walker]

After 58 years, a given cohort will have largely, if not entirely, vacated the institutions.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Other classifications for old age are similar, but begin the Old-Old phase at 85. I think this is probably more accurate than the distinctions that I posted earlier. Middle-Old would be divided in two parts by the fragility barrier-late seventies, and the early eighties. Past the fragility barrier one is living on borrowed time.

Prower2a's comments would seem to fit this, with 84 being the usual cut off point for participation in public life. The fields he mentioned as exceptions, such as politics or the arts, may be not require that much physical prowess. If memory serves me right, he once mentioned journalism as another exception.

Of course, the Old-old phase suggests a time scale similar to what S & H described. A long ago event may not have disappeared from living memory, but those memories may have little or no influence on public reactions to present day events.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Nov-18 World View -- Zimbabwe proposes to compensate white farmers as hyperinflation returns

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Zimbabwe proposes to compensate some white farmers whose lands were seized
  
• Hyperinflation returns to Zimbabwe
  

****
**** Zimbabwe proposes to compensate some white farmers whose lands were seized
****


The Norea Korea-trained Fifth Brigade of Mugabe's Zimbabwean army demonstrates karate in May 1984 at Rufaro Statium in Harare, Zimbabwe. In 1983, the Fifth Brigade committed a massive slaughter of the Ndebele tribe in a massive genocide called Operation Gukurahundi

In the 1990s, Zimbabwe used to be the breadbasket of southern Africa,
growing much more food than the country needed and exporting the rest.
Then in 1999, president Robert Mugabe instituted a "land reform" plan.
The Mugabe government seized, without compensation, farms owned by
white farmers, farms that were operating well and producing a great
deal of food. The farms were given to cronies in Mugable's Shona
tribe, who knew nothing about farming. By 2002, Zimbabwe's farmland
was in ruin and people were starving. Zimbabwe had been a food
exporter, but became a food importer.

Now suddenly, and unexpectedly, Zimbabwe's government is proposing to
compensate white farmers whose land was seized without compensation.
On Thursday, Zimbabwe's finance minister Mthuli Ncube, who was trained
at University of Cambridge and was appointed to his new post in
September, issued his proposed budget for 2019. Buried deep in his
budget document are the following paragraphs:

<QUOTE>"202. Government is committed to finalizing the issue
of compensation to former white farm owners who were affected by
the Land Reform Programme, in accordance with the country’s law
and commitments under the various bilateral agreements and the
Constitution. ...

206. In the interim, the 2019 Budget proposes to avail US$53
million towards payment of compensation to former white farm
owners, whose disbursement will be targeted."<END QUOTE>

The proposal acknowledges that the $53 million in the budget is only a
tiny fraction of the total compensation that would be required, so
this is only a first step. But why do it at all? Has the government
of Zimbabwe suddenly developed a conscience.

The answer is that Zimbabwe is no longer able to borrow money from the
World Bank, until some of Zimbabwe's previous debts have been
resolved. In particular, the United States is demanding that Zimbabwe
provide at least partial restitution to for land seized from white
farmers, before it will approve of any further World Bank loan to
Zimbabwe. So Ncube is proposing a nominal payment of restitution to
white farmers so that Zimbabwe, which is drowning in debt already,
might be able to borrow more money from the World Bank.

So Zimbabwe is being forced, most assuredly against its will, to
compensate white farmers for stolen land, so that Zimbabwe can go
further into debt. That sounds like Karmic justice to me.

According to the World Bank: "Zimbabwe has enormous potential given
its generous endowment of natural resources, an existing stock of
public infrastructure, and comparatively well skilled human
resources. However, realizing this will require prompt action to
correct fiscal policies, re-stabilize the monetary system, and resolve
arrears to international lenders that would allow for a resumption of
development financing." Australian Broadcasting (5-Sep-2002) and Daily News (Zimbabwe) and Zimbabwe Finance Ministry and World Bank

****
**** Hyperinflation returns to Zimbabwe
****

After Mugabe's land seizures left the farmlands in ruin and the people
starving, Zimbabwe began importing food. Mugabe was printing money to
pay for imports, causing rapid inflation and then hyperinflation,
which exceeded one million percent by 2009, making Zimbabwe currency
worth less than toilet paper. Half the population was in severe
poverty, with the greatest poverty among Mugabe's hated enemy, the
Ndebele tribe.

The US dollar became the official currency, and for a few years the
economy started to grow again. But in 2016, Mugabe started spending
lavishly again, resulting in unsustainable fiscal deficits, and a
cutoff of World Bank loans.

Since Zimbabwe was running out of foreign reserves (US dollars),
Mugabe in December 2016 introduced the bond note,
a new paper currency with each bond note worth one
US dollar. Mugabe said that only a limited number of bond notes would
be printed, so that hyperinflation would not recur.

However, bond note inflation has been occurring. According to
official figures, the inflation rate was 20.9% in October. However,
one analyst says that the official inflation rate is not accurate:

<QUOTE>"The inflation print fails to account for the widening
black market premium and therefore does not show the actual rate
at which prices are rising in the informal market. October’s
rapid increase in prices is likely to lead to even more confusion
and panic among local consumers."<END QUOTE>

The black market inflation rate is 244.6%. Zimbabwe Herald and Bloomberg and New Zimbabwe

Related Articles:

• Zimbabweans on panic buying spree as 'bond notes' crash (07-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Zimbabwe's post-election violence raises concerns about economy (04-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Zimbabwe bans food imports as new 'bond note' currency crashes (21-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Venezuela's currency becomes worthless, as Zimbabwe introduces new currency (08-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Zimbabwe launching a Soviet style command agriculture program (20-Aug-2016)
  
  
• 'Liberation Hero' Robert Mugabe now destroys Zimbabwe with cholera (08-Dec-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Zimbabwe, Shona, Nbdele,
Robert Mugabe, Operation Gukurahundi,
Mthuli Ncube, bond notes

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

(11-22-2018, 02:19 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > After 58 years, a given cohort will have largely, if not entirely,
> vacated the institutions.

The 58 year cutoff makes perfect sense to me. I've seen it
personally of the last 20 years. In the 1990s I was treated
with respect. Then in the 2000s I was treated increasingly
contemptuously, simply because of my age. That's why Gen-Xers
created tens of trillions of dollars of fraudulent subprime
mortgage backed synthethic securities. They wanted to sell
them to the Boomers, but instead millions of people lost
their homes or went bankrupt. So older people had already
lost a lot of influence by the mid-2000s.

Today an older person has no influence at all, unless he has
money.

At the other end of the spectrum is someone like Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez, who is one of the stupidest people around. But she
doesn't have to have money, since she's young, she's pretty, and she's
a girl, so she can influence a lot of people, which is one of the
reasons we're headed for World War III.

Also remember that the 58-year cutoff does not mean that the affected
cohort is 58 years old. The catastrophic event would have occurred
when they were 5-10 years old, so after 58 years, they're 63-68 years
old.

So the 58 Year Hypothesis makes perfect sense to me, both from
Generational Dynamics theory, and also from my personal experience.
Once people into their 60s, they lose all influence, and they're
treated contemptuously by younger people.

[pbrower2a]

(11-22-2018, 02:21 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Other classifications for old age are similar, but begin the Old-Old phase at 85.  I think this is probably more accurate than the distinctions that I posted earlier.  Middle-Old would be divided in two parts by the fragility barrier-late seventies, and the early eighties.  Past the fragility barrier one is living on borrowed time.

And some elderly people go on frenzied campaigns to get out their message in the knowledge that such is the last chance for anyone. This can as easily be for ill (James von Brunn) as good.

Quote:Pbrower2a's comments would seem to fit this, with 84 being the usual cut off point for participation in public life.  The fields he mentioned as exceptions, such as  politics or the arts, may be not require that much physical prowess.  If memory serves me right, he once mentioned journalism as another exception.

Yes -- and I think of Helen Thomas and Mike Wallace.

Quote:Of course, the Old-old phase suggests a time scale similar to what S & H described.  A long ago event may not have disappeared from living memory, but those memories may have little or no influence on public reactions to present day events.

Once one is in one's 90s, no matter how competent one remains, one might find the lack of a constituency for one's agenda and be unable to put together the cast of people necessary for pushing one's expression in a collective project. Add to this, one is typically out of touch with the passions of the time.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Once you are in your 90s your peer group is vanishing rapidly.