Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Oct-2019 World View: ISIS prisoner hyperbole

(10-11-2019, 07:00 AM)David Horn Wrote: > "You know, there is a lot of sunlight between withdrawing in an
> organized fashion, with all ones allies onboard, and this. What
> about the 1,000 hardcore ISIS fighters who will undoubtedly
> vaporize from the scene? No thought!

> At the very least, the Kurds deserved a few weeks advance notice
> to make real plans and execute on them. Telling people to piss
> off starting tomorrow is criminal, when they are going to
> die."

There's a lot of hyperbole going on. The Kurds have been expecting
this for a year, and they say they're well prepared for it. And there
are reports that the Turks are experiencing greater resistance than
they had expected.

As for "No thought!", the ISIS prisoner problem has been thought about
from the beginning. They're being used as pawns in the negotiations.
The Kurds can't just set them free, since the first thing they'll do
when they're free is beat, rape, kill and dismember as many Kurds as
they can. The Turks can't allow that, since after killing all the
Kurds they can, they'll cross into Turkey and start laying IEDs. The
Russians can't allow it either, because a lot of them come from
Russia's Caucasus region, and they'll go back. Same for the British,
French, Germans and Belgians. So the ISIS prisoners are just part of
a grand game.

Sorry. I just can't get excited about withdrawing 50 soldiers from
observation posts.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Oct-2019 World View: Trump says US-China trade deal is for the world

A couple of hours ago in the Oval Office, Donald Trump announced a
"phase one" trade deal with China.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-china...e-updates/

During his meeting, he said some interesting things that probably
won't appear in the print media:

Quote: "This is more important than interest rates. This has
to do with world peace. This has to do with getting along. This
has to do with the rest of the world. This isn't just a deal on
trade. This has to do with a lot of to do with a lot of friction,
a lot of bad things that are happening in the world. So this is
far more important than the Federal Reserve and interest rates.

But the Federal Reserve should just cut interest rates,
absolutely. ...

I think that we're gonna have a deal that's a great deal, that's
beyond tariffs. this is a very important deal for China very
important deal for the world, very important deal fo the United
States. Beyond tariffs.

I really mean that. I really feel that ... world peace ... You
know there was a lot of friction between the United States and
China and now it's a lovefest. That's good thing. that's good
for China, and it's good for us, and it's good for the world.

The Vice Premier said the same thing. And he said it better than
anybody could have said it. He said this is a good thing for the
world. He didn't say China or US. He said this is a good thing
for the world, and he's absolutely right."

As I've described in the past, it was the imposition of tariffs that
led Japan to bomb Pearl Harbor in 1941. Trump is undoubtedly aware
of that comparison, and his remarks address it.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Oct-2019 World View: Russia-Turkey war?

Goose Wrote:> Turkey/Syria: Done a little looking at the Kurds. Sweethearts they
> are not. The are strictly tribal and would as soon off another
> Kurd from another tribe as anyone else. That said they have been
> at war in some form or another with everybody in the neighborhood
> for all of recorded time. Fact is that there enough of them for
> them to have formed a country even now; but they are tribal and
> that precludes anything but war hot or cold and terrorist action.
> They are a non-state actor who will fight for any one who will pay
> them. I now suspect that they tried a money play with PDJT. Bad
> move on someone who comes out of the NYC RE market.

> I would say that I feel sorry for any individual who lives in that
> neighborhood and is subject to what happens there. But I have no
> sympathy for the actors - Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia or
> Kurds or Isis or any other group who seeks to play the hard game.
> Russia is on the spot if they do not support Assad he may seek to
> kick them out of their bases in Syria. If they get too frisky
> Turkey could close the strait to the Med. Mobile anti-ship
> missiles are the latest item in the fall weapons catalogs. Have
> them in time for Xmas. Besides Europe could use another million
> refugees with a bunch of Isis mixed in for a little spice.

> Question since 1800 how many years have been without a war (or
> lately "police action") I do not have the answer but would bet
> very few. On that could it not be that war is normal. Another
> observation global warming is welcome as most of North America
> would be under ice without it.

Turkey's invasion of Syria appears to be a lot more "exuberant" than
analysts had expected, suggesting that there's more going on than a
simple action to create a buffer zone, to protect Turkey from PKK
"terrorists."

Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and so the civil war should
have fizzled quickly in 2011. But it was propelled by the sociopathic
monster Bashar al-Assad, who pursued the war by targeting political
enemies, innocent women and children in markets, schools and
hospitals, using barrel bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas.

Even so, it's been clear from the beginning that the Syrian people
themselves did not want to fight. By 2015, al-Assad himself announced
publicly that he was going to lose the war, and he begged for help,
which he received from Russia, in return for establishing two Russian
military bases, Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase).

So today, here's a (partial) list of all the groups fighting
in Syria:
Syria's armed forces, Russia's armed forces,
Iran, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah,
ISIS (Islamic State, Daesh),
HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front),
JFS (Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria),
Turkey's armed forces, SNA (Syrian National Army),
United States armed forces and coalition forces,
YPG (People's Protection Units), PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party)
SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces).

Most of these are small groups formed on an ad-hoc basis for a
specific purpose.

But there are six national armies actively fighting: Syria, Russia,
Turkey, Iran, Lebanon-Hezbollah, United States.

Of these six, Syria, Iran, and Lebanon-Hezbollah are countries in
generational Awakening eras, with little will to fight an expanding
war.

Two of them, Turkey and Russia, are in generational Crisis eras.
These two countries are historic enemies, and have fought many
generational crisis wars with each other. One of those was the
Crimean War of the 1850s, which was disastrous for both sides, but
feelings from the Crimean war have been revived in recent years
because of Russia's illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea, and
expulsion of the Tatars, a Turkic ethnic group. And there's also
tension over the Bosphorus, which is controlled by Turkey, but is
heavily used by Russia (and other nations) as the connection between
the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea. And of course, tensions were
extremely high after Turkey "accidentally" shot down a Russian
warplane in November, 2015.

Turkey and Russia know how strong their mutual xenophobia has become,
and they're both aware that a small conflict could lead to a major
war, which neither side wants. So Turkey and Russia have been making
Herculean efforts, through the "Astana process," to stay out of each
other's way, to prevent an action that could lead to a major war.

So Russia has been fully engaged in supporting al-Assad's genocide and
ethnic cleansing of his Arab Sunni political enemies, including Turkic
groups such as Turkmens. But Turkey has let Russia and al-Assad have
their way, even including chlorine and Sarin gas, and has not
interfered, having agreed to the farcical "de-escalation zones" in the
"Astana process."

Al-Assad and Russia have used the de-escalation zone agreement to
conduct full-scale genocidal war on all the people in every
de-escalation zone except one.

The remaining de-escalation zone is Idlib, in northwest Syria, on
Turkey's border. Al-Assad would like to go in an exterminate all
three million Arab Sunnis living in Idlib, including women and
children, all of whom are "terrorists" according to al-Assad, and
Russia would like to help him, but everyone knows that would be
opposed militarily by Turkey, and could lead to a Russia-Turkey war.

Returning now to northeast Syria, we have the Kurds, who want to form
their own secessionist state of Rojava on the border with Turkey.
Thanks to their US-backed fight against ISIS, the Kurds now have
control of a large part of Syria, including the planned state of
Rojava, and gaining control of that land was a major part of their
motivation to fight ISIS. Now the Kurds have Rojava almost in their
grasp, but the thought of Rojava on Turkey's border makes the Turks'
blood run cold, as terrorist attacks in Turkey would certainly be
launched from Rojava. So Turkey has invaded Syria to set up a buffer
zone, and destroy the Rojava dream once and for all.

So the question now is how "exuberant" Turkey's invasion will continue
to be. Will they quickly create a buffer zone with minimal civilian
casualties, or will they adopt harsher crisis era behaviors, such as
genocide and ethnic cleansing? The Russians want to protect the
Kurds, but they will be reluctant to intervene, for fear of a larger
Russia-Turkey war.

So we have possible Russia-Turkey wars in both northwest and northeast
Syria. Both countries want to avoid such a war, but the two regions
are only a few hundred miles apart, and if things get complicated,
then the northeast and northwest may interact and lead to a
Russia-Turkey war anyway.

There is, of course, one more international army in a generational
Crisis -- the United States. There are lots of people in Washington
calling on the US army to intervene between Turkey and the Kurds, but
that could easily lead to a Turkey-US war, which neither side wants.

Russia's sleazy foreign minister Andrei Lavrov, who never tells the
truth except by accident, this week has been blaming the United
States, and has been goading the United States to intervene to stop
Turkey. On other occasions, Lavrov has lectured the US that it's
illegal for the US to be in Syria at all. But now, when Russia wants
its dirty work to be done by the US, suddenly the US is welcome in
Syria. Quelle surprise!

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Oct-2019 World View: Democide and ethnic civil wars

aeden Wrote:> The often quoted University of Hawaii Democide Project makes is
> very clear that when the government goes after the guns of its
> citizens, genocide happens and has happened 16 times in the 20th
> century.

> http://hawaii.edu/powerkills

> In 1911, Turkey established gun control. From 1915-1917, 1.5
> million Armenians, unable to defend themselves against their
> ethnic-cleansing government, were arrested and exterminated.

> 2. In 1929, the former Soviet Union established gun control as a
> means of controlling the “more difficult” of their citizens. From
> 1929 to the death of Stalin, 40 million Soviets met an untimely
> end at the hand of various governmental agencies as they were
> arrested and exterminated.

> 3. After the rise of the Nazi’s, Germany established their version
> of gun control in 1938 and from 1939 to 1945, 13 million Jews,
> gypsies, homosexuals, the mentally ill, and others, who were
> unable to defend themselves against the “Brown Shirts”, were
> arrested and exterminated. Interestingly, the Brown Shirts were
> eventually targeted for extermination themselves following their
> blind acts of allegiance to Hitler. Any American military and
> police would be wise to grasp the historical significance of the
> Brown Shirts’ fate.

> 4. After Communist China established gun control in 1935, an
> estimated 50 million political dissidents, unable to defend
> themselves against their fascist leaders, were arrested and
> exterminated.

> 5. Closer to home, Guatemala established gun control in 1964. From
> 1964 to 1981, 100,000 Mayans, unable to defend themselves against
> their ruthless dictatorship, were arrested and exterminated.

> 6. Uganda established gun control in 1970. From 1971 to 1979,
> 300,000 Christians, unable to defend themselves from their
> dictatorial government, were arrested and exterminated.

> 7. Cambodia established gun control in 1956. From 1975 to 1977,
> one million of the “educated” people, unable to defend themselves
> against their fascist government, were arrested and exterminated.

> 8. In 1994, Rwanda disarmed the Tutsi people and being unable to
> defend themselves from their totalitarian government, nearly one
> million were summarily executed. The total numbers of victims who
> lost their lives because of gun control is approximately 70
> million people in the 20th century. The historical voices from 70
> million corpses speak loudly and clearly to those Americans who
> are advocating for a de facto gun ban. Governments murdered four
> times as many civilians as were killed in all the international
> and domestic wars combined. Governments murdered millions more
> people than were killed by common criminals and it all followed
> gun control. Historically, American gun control legislation has
> been imitating Hitler’s Nazi Germany gun control legislation for
> quite some time. Consider the key provisions of the Nazi Weapons
> Act of 1938 and compare it with the United States Gun Control Act
> of 1968. The parallels of both the provisions and the legal
> language are eerily similar.

> Only fools and corpses follow -them-.

This is an interesting web site because it contains figures that
support many Generational Dynamics concepts.

However, the site becomes confused when it tries to explain why
some countries have higher democide rates than others.

In one place, it says that "non-free" societies have higher democide
rates. In the extract that you reference (which I could not find on
the web site), it says that low democide rates are tied to gun
ownership.

These may be important coincident factors, but the core reason for
high democide rates is a generational crisis war which is also an
ethnic, class, or tribal civil war.

For example, in one place the web site is clearly puzzled why France,
which is a free society and did not have large massacres after WW II,
but then massacred tens of thousands of Algerians. The reason for the
difference is that for France, WW II was an external war, fought
between armies, while the Algerian war was a civil war.

To sort out his democide categories, you don't separate them into
free/non-free. You separate them into three groups:

• Democide deaths after a generational crisis war which is an
  external war.
  
  
• Democide deaths during a generational crisis war which is an
  ethnic, tribal or class civil war.
  
  
• Democide deaths during the Awakening and Unraveling eras following
  a generational crisis war which is an ethnic, tribal or class civil
  war.

Whether a society is free or non-free, or whether a society
confiscates guns, depends on whether the preceding crisis war was a
civil war. Once those distinctions are made, then much of the web
site narrative falls into place.

[Warren Dew]

(10-08-2019, 01:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: commitments with the Kurds which they kept in full

We kept our commitments in full, too.  We agreed to fight alongside the Kurds against the Islamic State.

We did not, however, agree to help defend a new Kurdish state against Turkey.  And they did not agree to help with some of the things we wanted, either.  If they had been fully aligned with us, they would have helped against the Islamic State further south, at Dayr al Zor and Abu Kamal, helping us to interdict Iranian supplies to Hezbollah.  Instead, the Kurds declined to help us in that fight.

If the Kurds want our help defending a Kurdish state, they should head south, and establish it in eastern Syria, or east, and establish it in western Iran, places where we'd have an interest in holding ground.  They shouldn't expect us to help them establish a kurdish state in a position to destabilize Turkey, a NATO ally.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Oct-19 World View -- Ecuador's president Moreno imposes curfew after 10 days of violent protests

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ecuador's president Moreno imposes curfew after 10 days of violent protests
  
• Ecuador caught in massive debt trap by China
  
• Indigenous people demand closure of China's copper and gold mines
  
• China deploys mass surveillance spy system in Ecuador
  

****
**** Ecuador's president Moreno imposes curfew after 10 days of violent protests
****


Anti-government protesters in Quito, Ecuador, on Tuesday (AP)

Ecuador's president Lenin Moreno Garces has imposed a curfew on Quito,
the capital city, after 10 days of violent protests that have
paralyzed the city. Protesters on Saturday blocked road access to the
city's international airport and set fire to the national auditor's
office as police responded with tear gas and rubber bullets and
authorities imposed water and power cuts across the city.

The violence was so bad that Moreno moved his government base from
Quito to the coastal city of Guayaquil earlier this week to escape the
violence.

The protests were led by the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities
of Ecuador (CONAIE). The indigenous groups are the ethnic groups that
occupied this region prior to arrival of the European conquerors.
Today, there's a major social fault line between the indigenous people
and the descendants of the European invaders. The principal
indigenous groups are the Shuar and the Cañari Kichwa.

The protests were triggered by a plan to end fuel subsidies. Ending
fuel subsidies would increase gasoline (petrol) prices by 1/3, and
would double diesel fuel prices.

On March 11, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $4.2
billion bailout for Ecuador, subject to certain conditions:

<QUOTE>"The aim is to reduce debt-to-GDP ratio through a
combination of a wage bill realignment, a careful and gradual
optimization of fuel subsidies, a reprioritization of capital and
goods and services spending, and a tax reform. ...

The authorities are committed to supporting job creation,
restoring competitiveness and catalyzing private sector-led growth
while increasing transparency and forcefully countering
corruption. A more efficient tax system, public wage restraint,
facilitating the hiring process, and a more efficient energy
sector are important components of the authorities’ plan in this
area."<END QUOTE>

Having accepted the IMF bailout money, Ecuador is now committed to
implementing the austerity measures, including "the careful and
gradual optimization of fuel subsidies."

Some of the rioters are demanding that the government ignore the IMF's
austerity requirements, and keep the fuel subsidies. Conaie agreed
late Saturday to negotiations. This is an ongoing situation, and it's
possible that Moreno's government will not survive.

****
**** Ecuador caught in massive debt trap by China
****

Rafael Vicente Correa Delgado was Moreno's predecessor as president
between 2007-2017. When Correa first took office in 2007, he
advocated for indigenous people’s rights and sustainable development,
and the end of “exploitative capitalism” by mainly American and
European investors.

The end of "exploitative capitalism" meant that Correa would refuse to
pay back $3.2 billion in foreign debt.

So having defaulted on debt to US and European investors, Correa
invited investments from Chinese investors, and went on a spending
spree with money loaned by China. Today, Ecuador owes $6.5 billion to
China.

In December 2018, Ecuadorian president Moreno visited Beijing and
obtained an additional $900 million in loans from China, as part of a
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) cooperation deal with China.

I've written about a number of China's "debt trap diplomacy" deals
with many countries. China designs these agreement so that it's
almost impossible for the debtor country to make its payments. The
terms of these agreements are kept top secret, because they usually
involve corruption and kickbacks, and because the allow China to take
control of a country's infrastructure, such as a seaport, as an
inevitable consequence of default. Since the agreement specify that
China takes control of the debtor's assets, there's no need to impose
austerity requirements, as the IMF does.

So even the $900 million loan in December wasn't enough to save
Ecuador from default, and so Ecuador had to obtain a further $2.4
billion bailout from the IMF.

There are some groups in Ecuador that are demanding that the
government simply not pay back the IMF loan, in the same way that
Correa refused to pay back the $3.2 billion that Ecuador owed to US
and European investors in 2007. However, that won't work this time,
since the IMF bailout money will only be disbursed over a three year
period.

As we said, this is an ongoing situation, and Morena may not survive
in office.

****
**** Indigenous people demand closure of China's copper and gold mines
****

Ecuador has a 750 km stretch of mostly undeveloped deposits of copper,
silver, gold and zinc. Starting in 2015, China has taken a leading
role in mining those minerals. China has ownership or joint ownership
of three mines: the Mirador and San Carlos-Panantza copper mines, and
the Rio Blanco gold mine.

The mines are all being developed in the midst of indigenous people's
villages. When the Chinese first arrived, they promised that the
local people would benefit from the mines. However, as is usual with
Chinese projects, the jobs are all taken by imported Chinese workers,
and the locals receive nothing, although their land is taken, their
roads and lakes are blocked. The Mirador copper mine has turned 1,300
hectares of rainforest into an open pit mine.

Indigenous people affected by the mines are planning protests, but
they have little hope. This is another ongoing situation.

****
**** China deploys mass surveillance spy system in Ecuador
****

During the last four years, China has installed a vast surveillance
system, known as the ECU-911 system, that can be used to spy on all
Ecuadorian citizens.

The China-made surveillance equipment contains as many as 4,200
cameras, monitored by 16 centers and around 3,000 employees. The
system lets the government track phones, and may soon be upgraded with
facial-recognition capabilities. The equipment was manufactured by
two Chinese firms, Huawei Technologis and China National Import &
Export Corp (CEIEC).

Outside of Ecuador, similar systems have been sold to Venzuela,
Bolivia, and Angola. As many as 18 countries worldwide are currently
using Chinese-made monitoring systems.

As with all Chinese-made network products, we have to assume that the
Chinese military is able to access the surveillance and data, and
correlate it with the data in their own databases.

Sources:

• Ecuador president imposes curfew on capital amid protests (AlJaz, 12-Oct-2019)
  
• Protest leaders in Ecuador accept talks with government, president imposes Quito curfew (Reuters, 12-Oct-2019)
  
• Ecuador’s government flees capital, imposes curfew, after protesters storm parliament (SCMP/AP, 9-Oct-2019)
  
• Rio Blanco / How locals halted a Chinese-owned gold mine in Ecuador (ChinaDialog, 5-Jul-2019)
  
• Mirador / Few options left for local communities opposing Ecuador’s largest copper mine (ChinaDialog, 8-Jul-2019)
  
• Ecuador faces a huge budget deficit because of loans it received from China (LATimes, 10-Dec-2018)
  
• Does China Own Ecuador? (ChinaUSFocus, 6-Oct-2014)
  
• How Chinese projects are tearing communities in Ecuador apart (SCMP, 25-May-2019)
  
• The History of Ecuador (ThoughtCo, 23-May-2019)
  
• History of Ecuador / Ecuador (InfoPlease)
  
• History of Ecuador, Heritage (Ecuador.com)
  
• IMF Executive Board Approves US$4.2 Billion Extended Fund Facility for Ecuador (IMF-org, 11-Mar-2019)
  
• Huawei / ECU 911 / Ecuador’s All-Seeing Eye Is Made in China (ForeignPolicy, 9-Aug-2018)
  
• ECU 911 / Huawei / China Gains Geopolitical Clout in Ecuador Through Export of Mass-Surveillance Systems (EpochTimes, 23-Dec-2018)
  
• The NYT investigates China’s surveillance-state exports (TheVerge, 29-Apr-2019)
  
• ECU 911 / Chinese Government Builds Far-Reaching, Allegedly Corrupt, Surveillance System in Ecuador (IPVM, 13-May-2018)
  
• Huawei To Be “Top Three Global Position” in Video Surveillance (IPVM, 29-Oct-2018)

Related Articles:

• US-China trade war seriously disrupts world trade (16-Aug-2019)
  
  
• Canada arrests the chief financial officer of China powerhouse Huawei (07-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Ecuador ends U.S. trade deal in order to protect rapists and traitors (28-Jun-2013)
  
  
• Illinois Rep Luis V. Gutiérrez demands TPS status for Ecuadorians (25-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Massive earthquakes in Japan and Ecuador are linked by the Ring of Fire (18-Apr-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ecuador, Lenin Moreno Garces,
Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador, CONAIE,
Shuar, Cañari Kichwa, International Monetary Fund, China,
Rafael Vicente Correa Delgado, China,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, debt trap diplomacy,
Mirador copper mine, San Carlos-Panantza copper mine,
Rio Blanco gold mine,
ECU-911 system, Huawei Technologies,
China National Import & Export Corp, CEIEC.

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

** 13-Oct-2019 World View: Turkey's disorganized invasion of Syria

15,000 Turkish forces, with the Arab Syrian National Army, are pushing
into Syria, with reports that they're massacring Kurds on the ground
and through airstrikes. One video shows an Arab shooting a Kurd lying
on the ground.

Turkey seems to be going deeper and wider than they had previously
said to create a buffer zone. Thousands of Kurdish families are being
displaced and forced to flee to the south.

There are reports that hundreds of family members of ISIS families
have been set free.

The media are overwhelmingly hostile to Turkey, and so many of these
reports might be huge exaggerations. Things should become clearer in
a few days.

Some pundits are claiming that the Turks are planning ethnic cleansing
of the Kurds. Turkey says that they're targeting terrorists (PKK and
ISIS), not Kurds. Turkey points out that they're currently sheltering
300,000 Syrian Kurds in Turkey who fled the violence in Syria, so it
doesn't make sense to say that Turkey is targeting Kurds, and they
will be able to return to Syria after the buffer zone has been
created.

In the last 15 years, I've read about and written about hundreds of
incursions, military actions, invasions, and so forth. In some cases,
the incursion is carefully controlled. These are typical of
non-crisis wars.

Other incursions are highly emotional, organic and uncontrolled, and
that seems to be the case with Turkey's invasion of Syria. These are
typical of actions taken in a generational Crisis era.

The best recent analogy would be Israel's 2006 invasion of Lebanon to
attack Hezbollah. Israel panicked when two Israeli soldiers were
abducted near Lebanon's border, and conducted a highly emotional,
organic and uncontrolled invasion of Lebanon. The war was a disaster
for all involved, and ended a few weeks later with nothing
accomplished except to destroy a lot of Lebanon's infrastructure in
airstrikes, and displace a lot of Lebanese from their homes.

The invasion of Lebanon fizzled because Lebanon was in a
generatinal Awakening era. So is Syria.

So it's quite possible, even more likely than not, that Turkey's Syria
incursion will end in a few weeks. Erdogan made a statement earlier
today that the incursion will stop when it has created a buffer zone
400 km wide and 35 km deep, and that statement is credible.

However, the war might not end in a few weeks if the Russians decide
to intervene. This morning, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said that
American troops will continue to withdraw from northern Syria, and
that "There's every expectation...that the Syrian Kurds would cut a
deal with the Syrian and Russian forces."

If the Russians defend the Kurds in an organized manner, as US forces
have been doing until now, then the Turkish intervention should fizzle.
Al-Jazeera reports that al-Assad is sending troops to the region, and
if that's true, then Russians may support them.

But as I described in detail yesterday, Russia is in a generational
Crisis era, like Turkey, and the two countries have centuries of wars
between them, so if the situation becomes uncontrolled on either side,
then there could be a full-scale war between the two countries.

Another action that would lead to full-scale war is if Trump ordered
American troops to fight the Turks and protect the Kurds. Some
politicians are calling for that, but it would be a disaster.

A number of politicians are blaming the whole situation on Donald
Trump, claiming that it was Trump's decision to withdraw 50 soldiers
from observation posts on the Turkey's border that caused Turkey's
invasion. The argument this morning is that the 50 soldiers acted as
a "tripwire," and Turkey would not risk crossing the tripwire.

That argument is completely lacking in credibility. Turkey is in
a generational Crisis era and has been planning for this invasion
for months, and there's no chance that they would be stopped
by 50 US soldiers.

This morning, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said that when Trump
and Erdogan spoke on the phone last Sunday, Erdogan said that he
would go through with the invasion whether the US soldiers were there
or not. That claim is highly credible to me. Erdogan was going
ahead with the invasion, and as a courtesy, he told Trump to remove
the 50 US soldiers so that they wouldn't be caught in the crossfire.

There was a lot of weeping and moaning by politicians this morning
over the plight of the Kurds by politicians who know nothing about
them. I feel bad for the plight of the Kurds too, but I'm wondering
why I don't hear weeping and moaning from these politicians when
Bashar al-Assad's army kills and displaces millions of his Sunni Arab
political enemies with barrel bombs, chlorine gas, and Sarin gas. It
turns out that the Kurds are today's fashionable, stylish ethnic
group, while the Arab Sunnis are consigned to the waste bin.

So the situation in Syria may fizzle out, or it may expand into
full-scale war, mainly depending on what Russia does.

As I've written hundreds of times, The Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Jews vs Arabs, Sunnis vs Shias, and various
ethnic groups against each other. When I write this, I mean that it's
100% certain. Some people think that it depends on Trump, or Obama,
or Biden. It doesn't. A war between Turkey and Russia in Syria might
be the start, or it might turn out to be something else.


---- Source:

-- Esper says U.S. staying in Syria, but withdrawing south of Turkish
advance and deal in works to have Russians protect Kurds
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-...ect-kurds/
(MilitaryTimes, 13-Oct-2019)


---- Related:

*** 12-Oct-2019 World View: Russia-Turkey war?
***
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...985#p47985

[John J. Xenakis]

** 14-Oct-2019 World View: War between Turkey and Russia

Guest Wrote:> Russia is weak compared to Turkey. It has nuclear weapons, but so
> what? Using atomic weapons would spell the end of Russia, and the
> thieves running Russia don't want that to happen. Russia's ground
> forces are in the middle of modernization, but the process has
> been delayed by corruption and incompetence at every
> level. Russia's soldiers are still half trained conscripts. Morale
> is poor.

> And here is the wild card:

> "By 2015, Muslims will make up a majority of Russia's conscript
> army, and by 2020 a fifth of the population." Ethnographers:
> Russia will have a Muslim majority 'within our lifetime.'

> http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2005/08/...lim-russia

> I doubt the Chechens, Ingush, and Tatars serving in the Russian
> ranks will stay loyal to Moscow. They are treated badly by ethnic
> Russians. I have seen first hand how badly Muslims are treated in
> Russian Federation. I don't see Muslim minorities in Russia
> allowing their sons to be used as cannon fodder in order to
> protect drug addicted and alcoholic Russian youth who are unfit
> for military service. Nor, do I suspect, do the Turks.

This is a very interesting analysis. My comments have to do with
the fact that it's too logical.

A generational crisis war is raw emotion. Imperial Japan bombed Pearl
Harbor even though the US was five times as large as Japan, and it
was obvious that Japan would eventually lose the war.

The news today is that the Kurdish SDF has made an agreement with
Bashar al-Assad, and the Syrian army, presumably backed by Russia,
will occupy northeast Syria along the border with Turkey. Presumably,
this will stop the invasion, though I don't see how.

Turkey and Russia are in generational Crisis eras, have had many
generational crisis wars in the past, and they hate each other.
This means that the situation is ripe for situations where one
clash escalates to a larger clash, leading to war. This is exactly
how world wars start, as I've described in the past.

The information you've provided about Russia's army and population
would not prevent these escalations from occurring, since the
escalations would be emotional and organic. But what you've written
shows how the war might proceed in Russia. For example, Russia's last
generational crisis war involved the Boshevik Revolution, civil war
between Stalin and Trotsky, and the Ukraine Holomodor famine. All of
these civil war elements will be repeated, and would be triggered by a
war between Turkey and Russia.

[David Horn]

(10-11-2019, 09:16 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 11-Oct-2019 World View: ISIS prisoner hyperbole

(10-11-2019, 07:00 AM)David Horn Wrote: You know, there is a lot of sunlight between withdrawing in an organized fashion, with all ones allies onboard, and this.  What about the 1,000 hardcore ISIS fighters who will undoubtedly vaporize from the scene?  No thought!

At the very least, the Kurds deserved a few weeks advance notice to make real plans and execute on them.  Telling people to piss off starting tomorrow is criminal, when they are going to die."

There's a lot of hyperbole going on.  The Kurds have been expecting this for a year, and they say they're well prepared for it.  And there are reports that the Turks are experiencing greater resistance than they had expected.

As for "No thought!", the ISIS prisoner problem has been thought about from the beginning.  They're being used as pawns in the negotiations.  The Kurds can't just set them free, since the first thing they'll do when they're free is beat, rape, kill and dismember as many Kurds as they can.  The Turks can't allow that, since after killing all the Kurds they can, they'll cross into Turkey and start laying IEDs.  The Russians can't allow it either, because a lot of them come from Russia's Caucasus region, and they'll go back.  Same for the British, French, Germans and Belgians.  So the ISIS prisoners are just part of a grand game.

Sorry.  I just can't get excited about withdrawing 50 soldiers from observation posts.

Well, this didn't work the way you though it would, did it? It wasn't the 50 observers that were yanked, but the entire 1,000 Green Berets. Now, the Kurds work for the Russians and the ISIS prisoners are already on the loose. Nice play!

[David Horn]

(10-12-2019, 08:26 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(10-08-2019, 01:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: commitments with the Kurds which they kept in full

We kept our commitments in full, too.  We agreed to fight alongside the Kurds against the Islamic State.

We did not, however, agree to help defend a new Kurdish state against Turkey.  And they did not agree to help with some of the things we wanted, either.  If they had been fully aligned with us, they would have helped against the Islamic State further south, at Dayr al Zor and Abu Kamal, helping us to interdict Iranian supplies to Hezbollah.  Instead, the Kurds declined to help us in that fight.

If the Kurds want our help defending a Kurdish state, they should head south, and establish it in eastern Syria, or east, and establish it in western Iran, places where we'd have an interest in holding ground.  They shouldn't expect us to help them establish a kurdish state in a position to destabilize Turkey, a NATO ally.

The purpose of our small force in the region, and our commitment to the Kurds, was to keep ISIS in check, and the two large warring factions from burning the place to the ground.  Now we're out and, I suspect, the carnage will grow exponentially -- unless DJT gives Putting the relief from sanctions he wants so desperately.   

This has only started!

[John J. Xenakis]

** 14-Oct-2019 World View: The Great Man Theory of History

(10-14-2019, 11:24 AM)David Horn Wrote: > Well, this didn't work the way you though it would, did it? It
> wasn't the 50 observers that were yanked, but the entire 1,000
> Green Berets. Now, the Kurds work for the Russians and the ISIS
> prisoners are already on the loose. Nice play!

Yeah, well, if you had had your way, then US forces would be involved
in a major war with Turkey. Of course, then you would be posting
messages criticizing Trump for being so stupid as to do what you had
been suggesting, and getting the US into another war like the Iraq
war. I've seen this cynical game played over and over.

Actually, it's working exactly how I thought it would. Erdogan
has been threatening an invasion for years, and his threats have
become even more strident after ISIS was ejected from Raqqa. He made
it clear that the invasion was coming, no matter what Trump did.

There was no way that Turkey would for long accept 60,000 armed Kurds
on its border. What's happening now had to happen.

You have a particular view of the world that I reject completely, and
it's not even an ideological view, since it's shared by both Democrats
and Republicans.

Obama has called it "The Great Man Theory of History." It's the
belief that Washington rules the world, that everything in the world
happens because the president of the United States did something or
didn't do something, or who said something or didn't say something.

Obama and his acolytes used to believe that theory, and that view was
adopted by Kaiser and Howe, who thought that Obama would transform the
country and the world through his policies, thereby going through the
Fourth Turning without a war.

But Obama had an "Annus horribilis" in 2013, when it was clear that
his entire list of dozens of promises and policies, from controlling
the tides to closing Guantánamo, were a complete and total failure.

In an interview in 2014, Obama admitted failure: "I just wanted to add
one thing to that business about the Great Man Theory Of History. The
President of the United States cannot remake our society, and that’s
probably a good thing. Not probably. It’s definitely a good thing."

So Obama endorsed the Generational Dynamics view of history, though
without realizing that he was doing so.

The "Great Man Theory Of History" is your view, and it's a view that
is completely rejected by Generational Dynamics, and is repeatedly
disproved by events. Great events happen because of the flow of
populations and generations, and happen irrespective of what the
President of the United States says or doesn't say, does or doesn't
do.

So when Erdogan says for a year that "I'm going to invade Syria and
set up a buffer zone," and he's strongly supported by Turkey's
politicians (including opposition politicians except for the Kurdish
political party), then you can be absolutely certain that, at some
point, Erdogan is going to invade Syria and set up a buffer zone.

So that's what I thought would happen, and that's what's happening.
So it is working out the way I thought it would.

So now the next question is whether Turkey's invasion will lead to war
between Turkey and Russia, which is the question that I raised in a
posting a few days ago. The news today is that al-Assad's army is
headed for the northeast, presumably backed up by Russia. Turkey and
Russia are both deep into generational Crisis eras, they've fought
numerous wars with each other, and they're headed for new war with
absolute certainty, at some point in the immediate or not-to-distant
future.

(10-14-2019, 11:27 AM)David Horn Wrote: > This has only started!

Yes of course it has. Generational Dynamics has predicted a major
Mideast war for years. Generational Dynamics is always 100% correct.

[David Horn]

(10-14-2019, 01:19 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 14-Oct-2019 World View: The Great Man Theory of History

(10-14-2019, 11:24 AM)David Horn Wrote: Well, this didn't work the way you though it would, did it? It wasn't the 50 observers that were yanked, but the entire 1,000 Green Berets. Now, the Kurds work for the Russians and the ISIS prisoners are already on the loose. Nice play!

Yeah, well, if you had had your way, then US forces would be involved in a major war with Turkey.  Of course, then you would be posting messages criticizing Trump for being so stupid as to do what you had been suggesting, and getting the US into another war like the Iraq war.  I've seen this cynical game played over and over.

Erdogan is ballsy, but not stupid. Attacking US forces in the field would mandate a major response, and the response would have to be proportional … of course, Trump may have decided that our troops were in the way and it was our bad.

John J. Xenakis Wrote:Actually, it's working exactly how I thought it would.  Erdogan has been threatening an invasion for years, and his threats have become even more strident after ISIS was ejected from Raqqa.  He made it clear that the invasion was coming, no matter what Trump did.

There was no way that Turkey would for long accept 60,000 armed Kurds on its border.  What's happening now had to happen.

You have a particular view of the world that I reject completely, and it's not even an ideological view, since it's shared by both Democrats and Republicans.

The Turks need to resolve their internal mess. Erdogan was on shakier ground than Trump until Trump gave a free pass.

John J. Xenakis Wrote:Obama has called it "The Great Man Theory of History."  It's the belief that Washington rules the world, that everything in the world happens because the president of the United States did something or didn't do something, or who said something or didn't say something.

Obama and his acolytes used to believe that theory, and that view was adopted by Kaiser and Howe, who thought that Obama would transform the
country and the world through his policies, thereby going through the Fourth Turning without a war.

But Obama had an "Annus horribilis" in 2013, when it was clear that his entire list of dozens of promises and policies, from controlling the tides to closing Guantánamo, were a complete and total failure.

In an interview in 2014, Obama admitted failure: "I just wanted to add one thing to that business about the Great Man Theory Of History. The
President of the United States cannot remake our society, and that’s probably a good thing.  Not probably.  It’s definitely a good thing."

So Obama endorsed the Generational Dynamics view of history, though without realizing that he was doing so.

Bit of a stretch there, but yes, Obamas strengths were domestic not international.

John J. Xenakis Wrote:The "Great Man Theory Of History" is your view, and it's a view that is completely rejected by Generational Dynamics, and is repeatedly disproved by events.  Great events happen because of the flow of populations and generations, and happen irrespective of what the President of the United States says or doesn't say, does or doesn't do.

So when Erdogan says for a year that "I'm going to invade Syria and set up a buffer zone," and he's strongly supported by Turkey's politicians (including opposition politicians except for the Kurdish political party), then you can be absolutely certain that, at some point, Erdogan is going to invade Syria and set up a buffer zone.

So that's what I thought would happen, and that's what's happening. So it is working out the way I thought it would.

So now the next question is whether Turkey's invasion will lead to war between Turkey and Russia, which is the question that I raised in a posting a few days ago.  The news today is that al-Assad's army is headed for the northeast, presumably backed up by Russia.  Turkey and Russia are both deep into generational Crisis eras, they've fought numerous wars with each other, and they're headed for new war with absolute certainty, at some point in the immediate or not-to-distant future.

(10-14-2019, 11:27 AM)David Horn Wrote: This has only started!

Yes of course it has.  Generational Dynamics has predicted a major Mideast war for years.  Generational Dynamics is always 100% correct.

Predicting a war in the Middle East is a lot like predicting the sun will rise in the morning. We'll have to see whether it turns really ugly. You have three ancient empires: Ottoman, Arab and Persian, all acting like nothing's changed since 1910 … or 1210, perhaps. I suspect we'll stay out of this one, but Israel can't and will be the wild card.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 14-Oct-2019 Predicting the sunrise

(10-14-2019, 05:04 PM)David Horn Wrote: > Predicting a war in the Middle East is a lot like predicting the
> sun will rise in the morning.

First you say that "this didn't work the way you though it would, did
it?". Then when I explain that it did, you say, "Predicting a war in
the Middle East is a lot like predicting the sun will rise in the
morning." Well, you certainly didn't predict the war in the Mideast,
did you. You don't even believe that World War III is coming.

I've posted thousands of Generational Dynamics predictions over the
years. Some of them have been "obvious," but in other cases everyone
else in the world was predicting the opposite. Either way,
Generational Dynamics is always right.

[David Horn]

(10-14-2019, 08:13 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 14-Oct-2019 Predicting the sunrise

(10-14-2019, 05:04 PM)David Horn Wrote: Predicting a war in the Middle East is a lot like predicting the sun will rise in the morning.

First you say that "this didn't work the way you though it would, did it?".  Then when I explain that it did, you say, "Predicting a war in the Middle East is a lot like predicting the sun will rise in the morning."  Well, you certainly didn't predict the war in the Mideast, did you.  You don't even believe that World War III is coming.

Anything approaching a WW-III will be devastating to the planet and all human life. A widespread cyberwar, maybe not so much. I'm almost certain that we will fight some variant of cyberwar, and, in the end, there will be no winners -- only losers. We might even fight limited wars using hyper-jet missiles, but full-up fight-to-the-death war? No.

John J. Xenakis Wrote:I've posted thousands of Generational Dynamics predictions over the years.  Some of them have been "obvious," but in other cases everyone else in the world was predicting the opposite.  Either way, Generational Dynamics is always right.

If WW-III occurs, I'll believe. Otherwise, I'll keep my own council.

[Warren Dew]

(10-14-2019, 11:27 AM)David Horn Wrote: The purpose of our small force in the region, and our commitment to the Kurds, was to keep ISIS in check, and the two large warring factions from burning the place to the ground.  Now we're out and, I suspect, the carnage will grow exponentially -- unless DJT gives Putting the relief from sanctions he wants so desperately.

If so, with the Islamic State gone, there wasn't any point to keeping the troops there.  I don't know which two large factions you're talking about, but why should our troops die instead of them?

[Warren Dew]

(10-15-2019, 09:52 AM)David Horn Wrote: We might even fight limited wars using hyper-jet missiles, but full-up fight-to-the-death war?  No.

This is kind of a scary statement.  It's exactly when disasters - wars, depressions, etc - start to be thought impossible that they're the most likely to happen.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 15-Oct-2019 World View: The Kurds vs the Turks and Syrians

utahbob Wrote:> ** 13-Oct-2019 World View: Turkey's disorganized invasion of Syria

> John, When people talk about the Kurds, they are mistaken. The
> “Kurds” are not a monolithic group. That is a general title that
> has many “diverse” groups and that term is used by the lazy
> media. I dealt with the “Kurds.” There are radical communists
> “Kurds” that will snuff out the Islamic/Wahhabi “Kurds” in a
> heartbeat. Many are armed families that are organized into
> “battalions” that would be a glorified light infantry
> company/platoon in a western army. A tiny few hate the Turks and
> love killing them. Many live in Turkey and have no problems with
> the Turks. Like the Afghans, they will align with the big “man”
> for self-preservation of the tribe/ethnic group. The Turks will
> make nice with the “Kurds” for now; it is the least bloody way
> forward, since the “Kurds” make a sizeable minority in Turkey
> proper.

> The big issue that has to be dealt with before Syria can be carved
> into zones of power is ISIS. Knowing the history of that region on
> how problems hammered out in the past, it will not be pretty and
> best the US walk away. The US cannot “fix” that area of the
> world.

Thanks for that "on the ground" information. Most news reports are
buried in one ideology or another, it's hard to discern the truth,
but I've known you long enough to know that what you're saying
is the actual situation.

The information you're providing explains why Turkey is getting along
with an internal population of 300,000 Kurds, but is still invading
Syria to eliminate PKK/YPG Kurds. However, reports indicate that it's
the Syrian Arabs in the Syrian National Army (SNA), which is allied
with Turkey, that really hate the Kurds.

The news today is that the Syrian army is heading north to separate
the Kurdish SDF from Turkish forces, and Russia is sending special
forces into the area to separate Syrian forces from Kurdish forces and
Turkish forces.

So perhaps the 50 American soldiers who were withdrawn from border
posts are now being replaced by Russian soldiers in border posts.
Whether this is happening may become clearer as the chaos ends. As of
now, Turkey's invasion is raging on.

Another implication is that Russia and Turkey are not headed for war
with each other, which I speculated about a few days ago. As I wrote
at the time, Russia and Turkey are historically mortal enemies, and
both are in a generational Crisis era, and so they've been going to
great lengths, through the "Astana process," to make sure that there's
no miscalculation that can lead to war.

The US and EU are threatening harsh sanctions against Turkey if the
invasion doesn't end soon. At the same time, Turkey's forces are
being blocked by Russian forces. The result is that Turkey has
become almost completely isolated. Erdogan has been very skillful
at playing the US and Russia against each other, but that's not
possible at the present time.

Guest Wrote:> But the Muslim population was quite small during the Russian
> Revolution. Today the situation is different. The demographics
> have changed greatly. Wouldn't that affect GD?

> Also, Russia has been fighting major wars on the territory of the
> Ex-Soviet Union since 1992: Armenia, Moldova, Trans-Dniester
> Republic, Georgia, Abkhazia, Chechnya, Ingusetia, North and South
> Ossetia, Dagestan, etc. The wars in these places have usually
> involved two phases decades apart, for example: Georgia-Abkhazia
> and South Ossetia 1991-1993, then again in 2008. Chechnya wars
> raged 1993 (via proxies) -1997, and then 1999-until now. Russia
> troops also fought in the Central Asian Republics in the
> 1990s. Some of these were major wars (Chechnya). How can Russia
> be deep into a GC?

Russia's last generational crisis war was the Russian Revolution.
The other wars that you mention are non-crisis wars.

With regard to wars in "two phases," that's how many non-crisis wars
occur. The two sides clash, and have a truce and a peace agreement.
The peace agreement collapses and there's a new clash, and the cycle
repeats, alternating between periods of violence and negotiated peace.
Each episode of war is more violent than the preceding one, until
finally it spins into a full-scale generational crisis war.

One problem with analyzing Russia is that it's so big that it's
on several timelines.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 15-Oct-2019 WW III

(10-15-2019, 09:52 AM)David Horn Wrote: > If WW-III occurs, I'll believe. Otherwise, I'll keep my own
> council.

That's a good idea. That's what you should do.

Every now and then someone asks me whether they should worry about all
this stuff. I say that unless you're thinking of moving to an
underground bunker in the midwest, or something like that, then you
should just ignore it. After all, you can'd do anything about it
anyway, so you might as well just enjoy life.

In your case, I would suggest that you completely ignore international
news, and just stick to the impeachment bubble. You can listen to CNN
and MSNBC all day long, and never even know that there's anything else
going on in the world. In fact, just listen to what Adam Schiff says
every day. He always has "proof" that Trump is guilty, and just
listening to him should make you feel good. And feeling good is the
only thing that matters, right?

[Cynic Hero '86]

You know full well John that the culture wars/partisanship is a dog and pony show designed to distract the masses. I'm going to ask you a simple question, when is the establishment class going to stop pretending it's still 1995?

[John J. Xenakis]

** 15-Oct-2019 World View: Iran in Syria

Lindsey Graham was interviewed on Fox News this evening, after he met
with Trump for two hours.

He says that Iran is moving troops to take over the oil fields in
Syria's northeast, and he recommended to Trump to send in American
soldiers to protect the oil fields.

I wanted to report this because I haven't mentioned Iran so far in my
previous reports.