Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Jul-16 World View -- China's military deploys bombers and closes part of the South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China makes more delusional claims about the South China Sea
  
• China continues to operate within the Philippines exclusive economic zone (EEZ)
  
• China's military deploys bombers and closes part of the South China Sea
  

****
**** China makes more delusional claims about the South China Sea
****


China's map of countries supporting them (China Daily)

China state media has issued a report with a map claiming that 70
countries are supporting China's position to reject last week's
decision handed down by the United Nations Permanent Court of
Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague. (See my detailed analysis of the
Tribunal decision in "13-Jul-16 World View -- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea"
.)

The text in the map shown above says:

[indent]<QUOTE>"More than 70 countries have publicly voiced support
for China’s position that South China Sea disputes should be
resolved through negotiations and not arbitration. In contrast,
just several countries, mainly the United States and its close
allies, have publicly supported the Philippines and called for
observing the ruling as legally binding."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Once again, China's claims are totally delusional.

India, for example, most assuredly did not voice support for China's
claim that disputes should not be resolved through arbitration.
According to a statement issued by India's Ministry of External
Affairs:

[indent]<QUOTE>"India supports freedom of navigation and over flight,
and unimpeded commerce, based on the principles of international
law, as reflected notably in the UNCLOS. India believes that
States should resolve disputes through peaceful means without
threat or use of force and exercise self-restraint in the conduct
of activities that could complicate or escalate disputes affecting
peace and stability.

Sea lanes of communication passing through the South China Sea are
critical for peace, stability, prosperity and development. As a
State Party to the UNCLOS, India urges all parties to show utmost
respect for the UNCLOS, which establishes the international legal
order of the seas and oceans."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The Indian statement was very carefully worded so as not to
strongly confront China, but it certainly did not reject arbitration.

Prior to the Tribunal ruling, China claimed that 60 countries were in
"a chorus" that publicly endorsed China's South China Sea position.
The list was completely delusional.

According to an analysis by the the Asia Maritime Transparency
Initiative (AMTI) of the Center for Strategic and International
Studies, 8 countries have publicly confirmed their support, 4 have
denied Beijing’s claim of support, and 45 have remained publicly
silent or have issued statements that are considerably vaguer than
indicated by China. In contrast, 11 countries plus the European Union
have said that the arbitral award will be legally binding and have
called on both China and the Philippines to respect it.

After the Tribunal ruling, an analysis by Lowy Institute seems to
indicate that China has fewer supporters today than before the ruling
-- not surprising in view of the clarity and presentation of evidence
in the ruling. According to Lowy, only three countries now reject the
ruling: China, Taiwan and Pakistan. 34 nations have publicly called
for the ruling to be respected. Others have either said nothing, or
acknowledged the ruling positively.

Also prior to the Tribunal ruling was issued, China released
"evidence" of its claims that turned out to be a complete hoax.
( "22-Jun-16 World View -- China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims revealed as hoax"
)

It's all very strange. The Tribunal's ruling is purely symbolic
in the sense that it has no way to enforce its ruling. Militarily,
China is ignoring the ruling anyway, as it prepares for war with
its neighbors and with the United States.

Despite all that, China continues to behave in a highly emotional,
irrational, panicky, nationalistic manner, issuing delusional and
fabricated evidence to support claims that everybody knows are false
claims.

This is what makes China so dangerous. They believe that the US has
been weakened by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and too anxious to
risk another war. This is a major historic mistake that they will
regret. They claim to be "peace loving," but the way the world works
is that every leader goes to war by claiming to be "peace loving," and
blaming the other side. China Daily and India Ministry of External Affairs and Lowy Institute (Australia)

****
**** China continues to operate within the Philippines exclusive economic zone (EEZ)
****

China has claimed that the airstrips on their artificial islands in
the Spratly Islands are for civilian aircraft, and they backed up
their claims by reporting on two civilian flights, an Airbus A319
chartered by China Southern Airlines and a Boeing 737 by Hainan
Airlines, that landed on the airstrips.

We're getting used to outright fabrications and lies from the
Chinese, and no one seriously believes that these airstrips will
be used only for commercial flights. It's generally thought
that China is preparing for war with its neighbors, and that these
airstrips will be used for military purposes.

The claim that the artificial islands have only commercial use is
laughable. As one analyst wrote sarcastically, "The business plan for
the Spratlys would be interesting to read. Perhaps the Chinese would
allow Philippine civilian aircraft to land at Mischief Reef to boost
revenue."

One of China's artificial islands is on Mischief Reef, which the
Tribunal declared is part of the Philippines exclusive economic zone
(EEZ), according to last week's decision handed down by the United
Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague.

Indeed, Mischief Reef is 300 km (185 miles) west of the Philippines'
island of Palawan, but 1,100 km (685 miles) from China's Hainan
Island. So it's entirely within the Philippines EEZ, and therefore the
artificial islands that China built are now the legal property of the
Philippines. Press Trust of India and Reuters

****
**** China's military deploys bombers and closes part of the South China Sea
****

China announced that it will now deploy a combat air patrol with long
range bombers in the South China Sea as "a regular practice."
According to the Chinese military, "The PLA Air Force will firmly
defend national sovereignty, security and maritime interests,
safeguard regional peace and stability, and cope with various threats
and challenges."

Separately, China's maritime administration said that it is closing
off a part of the South China Sea for military exercises this week.

China is in a highly nationalistic, emotional, anxious and dangerous
state, and is rapidly increasing its military across the South China
Sea, preparing for war with its neighbors and with the United States.
AP and India Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Philippines, South China Sea,
Permanent Court of Arbitration, Spratly Islands, Mischief Reef,
India, Taiwan, Pakistan, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Jul-16 World View -- The African Union proposes an all-African peacekeeping force for South Sudan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands in South Sudan flee to Uganda to escape violence
  
• The African Union proposes an all-African peacekeeping force for South Sudan
  
• Uganda's president opposes arms embargo on South Sudan
  

****
**** Thousands in South Sudan flee to Uganda to escape violence
****


South Sudan refugee women and children seek shelter under a UN van. (DPA)

Thousands of refugees from South Sudan are fleeing across the border
to Uganda to escape the possibility of fresh tribal fighting in South
Sudan's capital city Juba, despite the fact that the fighting has
cooled down in the last week. Over 5,000 refugees crossed the border
over the weekend, joining more than 6,000 that had crossed previously.

However, that number of refugees is dwarfed by the number of people
who have had to flee their homes and are still in South Sudan. At
least 42,000 fled the city of Juba in recent days, and hundreds were
killed. The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) is responsible for the
protection of civilians in refugee camps in South Sudan.

There are fears that if the fighting worsens, then there may be over a
million refugees, both internal and flowing into neighboring
countries. ( "11-Jul-16 World View -- Fears that renewed South Sudan tribal fighting could spiral into larger war"
)

Ever since the violence began in December 2013, the number of South
Sudan refugees in neighboring countries is around 835,000. UNHCR and Al Jazeera

****
**** The African Union proposes an all-African peacekeeping force for South Sudan
****

An African Union (AU) summit approved the deployment of an all-African
peacekeeping to South Sudan, now that there's a lull in the fighting.
The soldiers from the force are would come from Ethiopia, Kenya,
Rwanda, Sudan and Uganda.

The new deployment would be in addition to an existing deployment of
12,000 person UN peacekeeping force. The difference between the two
(theoretically) is that the UN peacekeeping force is only permitted to
keep an existing peace, while the AU force would have the mandate
to "impose peace."

However, South Sudan president Salva Kiir will not grant permission
for an AU force to enter the country. According to Michael Makuei
Lueth, South Sudan's Information Minister, "We are not ready for a
deployment of even a single additional soldier. That does not solve
the problem. As a sovereign state ... this thing cannot be imposed on
us without our consent. [It would not] serve the interests of the
people of South Sudan."

However, the situation is dire. Over a third of South Sudan's
population are expected to face severe food shortages over the coming
months, and there is a real risk of what the UN has termed a "hunger
catastrophe". Deutsche Welle and BBC and Times Live (South Africa)

****
**** Uganda's president opposes arms embargo on South Sudan
****

Uganda's president Yoweri Museveni said he was opposed to a U.N. plan
to impose an arms embargo on his neighbor South Sudan, saying it
would weaken its army just as the country was trying to contain a
resurgence of violence.

South Sudan became independent on July 9, 2011. There was constant
low-level fighting in the country, but finally major clashes began in
December 2013. ( "29-Dec-2013 World View -- Conflicts grow in South Sudan and Central African Republic"
) Major clashes began again on two weeks ago, on the
fifth anniversary of independence.

The fighting is between two tribes, the Dinka tribe, led by the
president Salva Kiir, and the Nuer tribe, led by the vice-president
Riek Machar.

There's widespread fear that the tribal fighting will spiral into a
full-scale civil war.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that's not going to
happen. As in wrote in "Generational history of South Sudan and Dinka-Nuer clashes"
, the last generational crisis war between the Dinka
and Nuer tribes climaxed in 1991 with the "Bor Massacre," starving,
displacing and killing hundreds of thousands of people. Thus, South
Sudan is in a generational Awakening era, and there are many survivors
of the Bor Massacre from both sides who do not want to see anything so
horrible happen again, and will do anything they can to prevent it.
So an event similar to the Bor Massacre will not occur.

What is happening is that weapons are flooding into South Sudan, with
Uganda supplying weapons to Salva Kiir and the Dinkas, and Ethiopia
and (Northern) Sudan supplying weapons to Riek Machar and the Nuers.
It's the flow of weapons that is sustaining a conflict that would
otherwise die out.

We've seen the same thing in Syria. Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
launched a war of extermination against the Sunnis in Syria in 2011,
and it would have fizzled out long ago, almost certainly with the
defeat of al-Assad, except that Russia and Iran have been pouring vast
amounts of weapons and soldiers into Syria to prop up the regime and
keep the fight going.

Returning now to South Sudan, the United Nations would like to impose
a weapons embargo on both tribes, but in view of opposition from
people like Uganda's president Yoweri Museveni, that's unlikely to
succeed. Reuters and Sudan Tribune


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sudan, South Sudan, Juba, Dinka tribe, Nuer tribe,
United Nations Mission in South Sudan, UNMISS,
Salva Kiir, Riek Machar, Bor Massacre, African Union,
Michael Makuei Lueth, Uganda, Yoweri Museveni,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Iran

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Jul-16 World View -- India-Pakistan tensions grow over Kashmir issue

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tensions rising between Pakistan and India over Kashmir issue
  
• Mastermind of 2008 Mumbai attack leads Pakistan protests against India
  

****
**** Tensions rising between Pakistan and India over Kashmir issue
****


Saudi migrant workers at a bus stop in Kashmir on Wednesday (AFP)

Tensions are rising palpably between Pakistan and India, with
anti-India protests across Pakistan on Wednesday, protesting the
ongoing violence in the Indian-governed Kashmir.

Violent clashes in Kashmir began on July 9, following the death on
July 8 of Burhan Wani, 22, a 22-year-old commander in the separatist
militia Hizbul Mujahideen (HM). Some 50 Kashmiris were killed and
over 1,900 injured. About 600 were blinded for life, having been shot
by the security forces with "non-lethal" pellet guns. After 12 days,
Kashmir is paralyzed and the streets are deserted, as police and
paramilitary soldiers in riot gear continue to enforce a strict
curfew.

Separatist sentiment continued to grow in Kashmir. On Wednesday,
residents hoisted dozens of black and Pakistan flags to observe a
"black day" to protest the killing Wani. Indian security forces,
fearing a further uprising, removed the flags.

As I described in detail in "14-Jul-16 World View -- Police clashes in India-governed Kashmir kill 36 and leaves thousands injured"
, Pakistan and
India, including Kashmir, are deep into a generational Crisis era.
The last generational crisis war was Partition, the 1947 war that
followed the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and
Pakistan, one of bloodiest wars of the 20th century. In the past,
with survivors of that war still alive and still in power, no one
wanted to see a repeat of the bloody 1947 war. But today, those
survivors are almost gone, and the younger generations, with only
limited, partial information about the horrors that occurred in that
war, are headed for a repeat of the 1947 war.

Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif said:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Today we are observing Black Day to express
solidarity with Kashmiris and are giving a strong message to the
world that Pakistanis are with them (Kashmiris) for their struggle
to get their rights.

India cannot suppress the voice of Kashmiris through force as they
will eventually get freedom. The UN has declared Kashmir a
disputed territory and India should hold plebiscite to respect the
rights of Kashmiris. Terming Kashmir issue internal matter of
India is not justifiable."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Many Indian officials believe that Pakistan is funding and supporting
terrorism in Kashmir, which would not be surprising since India and
Pakistan have found three wars over Kashmir.

On Wednesday, India's Minister of State for External Affairs MJ Akbar

[indent]<QUOTE>"India will be able to handle the situation but
Pakistan will not be able to do that. You are committing
suicide... We are saying this as a good neighbor. [It is] time
to open your eyes. ...

When (Hizbul Mujahideen terrorist Burhan) Wani got killed,
Pakistanis are observing 'black day' and they think we will accept
it silently. We will not do that."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Akbar pointed out that when Pakistan suffered a major terror attack
killing dozens of children in a school in Peshawar, Indians did not
cheer the way that Pakistanis are cheering today. Press TV (Iran) and Saudi (Arabia) Journal and New Indian Express

****
**** Mastermind of 2008 Mumbai attack leads Pakistan protests against India
****

Tens of thousands of demonstrators in cities across Pakistan --
Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Multan, and others -- took to the streets
on Wednesday to protest against the ongoing violence in the
Indian-governed Kashmir.

The leader of the protests in Lahore was Hafiz Saeed, leader of the
terror group Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) at the time that LeT attack
conducted the horrific '26/11' terrorist attack on Mumbai
in November 2008, lead the public
protests against India in Kashmir on Wednesday. Saeed is designated a
terrorist by the U.S. government with a $10 million bounty on his
head.

On Wednesday, Saeed said that Burhan Wani was a freedom fighter, and
said his death would strengthen the jihad in Kashmir. Indian
officials are furious that Pakistan has refused to prosecute Saeed.
AP and Asian Age


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Jammu, Pakistan,
Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen, Nawaz Sharif, MJ Akbar,
Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Multan, Hafiz Saeed,
Lashkar-e-Toiba, LeT, Mumbai

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-Jul-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers, moving Turkey away from the West

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers
  
• Turkey moves away from the West
  

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers
****


Military officers under arrest after the failed military coup. Front row center is Akin Ozturk, a four-star general and former commander of the Turkish air force. (CNN)

Following last week's attempted coup d'état, Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday declared a three-month state of
emergency that gives him near dictatorial powers that cannot be
challenged by the parliament or the courts. Erdogan announced the
following:

[indent]<QUOTE>"As a result of a comprehensive evaluation with
members of the National Security Council [MGK], we have decided to
recommend the declaration of a state of emergency, in line with
Article 120 of our constitution, in order to eliminate the terror
organization which attempted to make a coup, swiftly and
completely."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In order to eliminate this "terror organization," Erdogan executed a
purge the size of which is breathtaking:

• 7,500 soldiers have been detained, including 118 generals and
  admirals
  
• 8,000 police have been removed from their posts and 1,000
  arrested
  
• 3,000 members of the judiciary, including 1,481 judges, have been
  suspended
  
• 15,200 education ministry officials have lost their jobs
  
• 21,000 private school teachers have had their licenses
  revoked
  
• 1,577 university deans (faculty heads) have been asked to
  resign
  
• 1,500 finance ministry staff have been removed
  
• 492 clerics, preachers and religious teachers have been fired
  
• 393 social policy ministry staff have been dismissed
  
• 257 prime minister's office staff have been removed
  
• 100 intelligence officials have been suspended

In all, 58,000 people have been affected by the purge.

Because of the size and complexity of this purge, many analysts
believe that the purge was in the planning stages for several months,
waiting for the right opportunity to implement it. It was already
obvious in March that something was coming when Erdogan forcibly shut
down the only opposition newspaper and jailed the reporters. ( "6-Mar-16 World View -- Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media"
)

To Erdogan, free speech is terrorism.

As I wrote last week in "17-Jul-16 World View -- Attempted army coup in Turkey collapses within hours"
, Erdogan is blaming the coup on a "terrorist
group" on Fethullah Gulen, a 76-year-old Turkish Muslim cleric, living
in self-imposed exile in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania since splitting
with Erdogan. Apparently Erdogan believes that the 58,000 police,
judges, clerics and social workers that he purged were all part of a
terrorist group being controlled by Gulen from his easy chair in the
Poconos mountains of Pennsylvania.

Erdogan is demanding that Gulen be extradited back to Turkey, but
Obama administration officials are resisting, saying that they're
perfectly willing to extradite him, once Turkey has supplied the
required paperwork, something that will stand up in court providing
evidence that Gulen committed a crime. So far, that evidence has not
been provided.
Hurriyet (Ankara) and BBC

****
**** Turkey moves away from the West
****

Even ignoring the long-term conflict with the PKK terrorists, Turkey
is a deeply divided country split between the religiously conservative
Islamists versus the moderate secularists. This split dates back to
World War I, when the Ottoman Empire collapsed, and Ataturk, the
founder of modern Turkey, declared that Turkey's society would be
secular. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the current president, has been
reversing that decision, making the society more Islamist.

A number of reports have indicated that young people in Turkey have
been more been more Islamist than the more secularist people in the
older generations, and have felt discriminated against. Erdogan has
been appealing to these younger generations, and it's believed that
many of 58,000 people who were purged were secularists.

The West, especially secular Europe, have become increasingly alarmed
at these changes, especially in the last couple of days. Beyond the
state of emergency, Erdogan has also suspended the European Convention
on Human Rights (EHCR), which guarantees basic rights similar to those
guaranteed by the American Bill of Rights. Turkish officials argue
that human rights will still be preserved, and they point out that
France suspended the EHCR briefly last year, in conjunction with
declaring a state of emergency.

These announcements have revived talks of the death penalty, imposed
media restrictions, blocked websites and placed a ban on academics
leaving the country. Erdogan has specifically stated that the death
penalty might be reinstated.

[indent]<QUOTE>"I will approve capital punishment if it's passed by
parliament. ...

If the EU respects democracy it will accept people's will. The
world is not simply the European Union. Do you have capital
punishment in the US, Russia, China and in many other countries?
Yes."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Turkey abolished the death penalty in 2004 as one of the reforms that
had been demanded by the European Union before Turkey would be allowed
to join the EU. Turkish officials have been getting increasingly
annoyed since then because the talks with the EU have repeatedly been
stalled. If Turkey reinstates the death penalty, it will have
enormous symbolic significance, because it could lead to the final end
of any talk about Turkey joining the European Union.

There are strong bonds tying Turkey to the West. Turkey is a member
of Nato and has been so for years. More recently, Turkey and the EU
have signed the EU-Turkey migrant deal that's reduced the flood of
thousands of migrants per day entering Greece from Turkey to just
dozens per day. Going beyond these specific contractual international
relationships. Turkey is considered in the West to be the linchpin of
any Mideast policy, because of its central location.

Despite all that, there is a widespread feeling among authorities in
the West that Turkey is moving away from the West. One example is
that some Turkish officials are suggesting that America has been
partially responsible for the coup because America has given asylum to
Fethullah Gulen.

Long-time readers know that Generational Dynamics predicts exactly
that -- that Turkey will move away from the West. As I've been
writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming
Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan, and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be one side, and India, Iran, the United States
and the West will be on the other side. ( "8-Jul-16 World View -- Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia"
)

When I first made this prediction, years ago, Turkey was a close ally
and Iran was a hated enemy. However, this prediction establishes a
trend line that's already being realized -- Iran has been moving
toward the West, and Turkey has been moving away. If you want to
understand where Turkey is going, then follow the Generational
Dynamics trend lines and forecasts, and you will have the answer.
Hurriyet (Ankara) and Jerusalem Post and Al-Jazeera


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel,
Fethullah Gulen, Saylorsburg Pennsylvania, Iran,
China, Pakistan

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Jul-16 World View -- Christian pastor's '#ThisFlag' movement threatens Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Christian pastor leads '#ThisFlag' demonstrations against Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe
  
• Zimbabwe war veterans suddenly turn on Robert Mugabe
  

****
**** Christian pastor leads '#ThisFlag' demonstrations against Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe
****


Grace Mugabe, the young wife of 92-year-old Robert Mugabe, who he wants to be his successor

Zimbabwe is being suddenly riven by anti-government demonstrations and
clashes with security forces that suddenly erupted into a major
political force almost spontaneously earlier this month, fed by social
media with the hash tag #ThisFlag.

Evan Mawarire, the 39-year-old pastor of the His Generation Church in
the capital city Harare, used social media to organize a nationwide
"stay-away," a shutdown of schools, businesses and shops around the
country. Since any sort of government protest can be punished
violently by the government of the 92-year-old president Robert
Mugabe, Mawarire chose the national flag as the symbol of protest,
along with the hash tag #ThisFlag. According to Mawarire, the
Zimbabwe flag used to be a symbol of national pride, but today it's a
symbol of endemic corruption, injustice, starvation, and poverty in
the country.

The July 6 national shutdown shut down much of the country, and
Mawarire was summoned by police for questioning, and was charged with
inciting public violence, disturbing the peace, and treason. Mawarire
might have been locked up for years, or even tortured and killed, as
is not uncommon in the Mugabe government. But court officials were
shocked when nearly 200 young lawyers flocked to Harare's Magistrate's
Court and volunteered to represent the pastor. The police were forced
to free Mawarire after only one night in custody, and drop the
charges.

After being freed, Mawarire posted on his Facebook page to his
followers:

[indent]<QUOTE>"You did so well. There was no violence. No one was
fighting. No one was throwing stones. Zimbabweans are peaceful
people and we can do this very well with peace. ... Continue to
pray for Zimbabwe. God is doing something special and
amazing."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Several Christian organizations -- the Zimbabwe Catholic bishops’
conference, the Evangelical Fellowship of Zimbabwe, the Zimbabwe
Council of Churches, and other groups issued a statement condemning
Mugabe for apparent disregard for the constitution by the government
and police and failure to deal with corruption. "These grievances
must be viewed as the early warning signs which indicate underlying
and simmering tensions that will soon explode into civil unrest if not
addressed."

In fact, widespread civil unrest is exactly where this is headed, from
the point of view of Generational Dynamics. Zimbabwe is in a
generational Awakening era, like America and Europe in the 1960s and
1970s, and the first post-war generation (like America's Boomers) are
on the path to holding massive protests. Zimbabwe's last generational
crisis war was the war for independence that climaxed in 1980.
Mugabe's government has used massive arrests, massacres, atrocities
and torture to stop earlier protests, but this protest could not be
stopped because it used social media, and because the form of the
protest was for the protesters to stay and home and shut down the
country, rather than march through the streets. Now that one protest
has been successful, it's likely that there will be more.

As we described earlier this month in "1-Jul-16 World View -- Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Puerto Rico - three amigos in Marxist economic destruction"
, Zimbabwe is in the
midst of a major financial crisis because Mugabe has destroyed the
nation's economy by shutting down the farms and businesses, because
they were run by whites, and turned them over to corrupt cronies in
his own Zanu-pf political party who couldn't run a business or a farm
if their lives depended on it. Zimbabwe was the breadbasket of Africa
in the 1990s, but it took Mugabe only a few years to destroy the
economy, and to give away the pieces to his corrupt cronies, leaving
his political enemies to starve. Mugabe's breathtaking destruction of
the country's economy is a major motivation for the protests occurring
now. Religion News Service and Catholic News Agency and The Zimbabwe Mail and Nehanda Radio (Harare)

****
**** Zimbabwe war veterans suddenly turn on Robert Mugabe
****

The success of the #ThisFlag movement has triggered other forms of
protest. On Thursday, Robert Mugabe's most loyal supporters, the
Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association, suddenly turned
on Mugabe.

These were the veterans that fought alongside Mugabe in the war of
independence. After the war, they were in the front lines of
torturing and massacring Mugabe's political enemies. Any anti-Mugabe
protestor could count on being arrested and beaten at the hands of
Mugabe's war veterans. The veterans have formed the backbone of
Mugabe's party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front
(Zanu-pf).

So the surprise move to turn against Mugabe has significantly changed
the political landscape in Zimbabwe. According to the statement:

[indent]<QUOTE>"We note, with concern, shock and dismay, the
systematic entrenchment of dictatorial tendencies, personified by
the president and his cohorts, which have slowly devoured the
values of the liberation struggle. ...

Mugabe should understand that his leadership is as a result of our
support as we are the vanguard of the ruling ZANU PF, without war
veterans who fought for the liberation of this country then there
is no ZANU-PF. ... So to Mugabe we say, you cannot stop us as war
veterans from debating the succession of the party’s leadership,
as we are the spine of the party."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, one should not assume that this change of heart was motivated
by feelings of guilt over past tortures and massacres. Actually, it
was motivated by the fact that Mugabe had ordered the firing of the
chairman of the veterans association, Christopher Mutsvangwa.
According to the statement:

[indent]<QUOTE>"We still recognize Cde Christopher Mutsvangwa as our
national chairperson amongst the war veterans and Mugabe should be
warned Mutsvangwa cannot be fired willy nilly as that has to be
done through a congress. Mugabe is fond of firing from the party
anybody who raises a voice against him and we are saying no enough
is enough."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This is taking place in the context of a growing battle over Mugabe's
successor as leader of Zanu-pf. The 92-year-old Mugabe claims that
his plans are to live past the age 100, but others are not so sure.

Two factions have emerged. The veterans want Mugabe to be succeeded
by the current vice president, Emmerson Mnangagwa. Mugabe himself
wants to be succeeded by his own wife, Grace Mugabe.

In February, police used tear gas and water cannons to disperse
hundreds of veterans who were demonstrating against what they
described as criticism by Grace Mugabe. According to the veterans'
statement:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Regrettably, the general citizenry has previously
been subjected to this inhuman and degrading treatment without a
word of disapproval from us. That time has passed. We wish to
categorically condemn the brutal suppression of the freedom of
expression, whether exercised by ourselves or by anyone
else."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a very
interesting story because it shows how very different cultures can
have Awakening eras with many similarities. What unites Awakening
eras across all cultures is the rise of the first generation following
the previous generational crisis war, and the appearance of marches,
demonstrations and other forms of protest, just as occurred in America
and Europe in the 1960-70s.

Okay Africa and Reuters and AP and The Standard (Harare - 27-Mar)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe,
Evan Mawarire, His Generation Church, Zimbabwe Catholic bishops’ conference,
Evangelical Fellowship of Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe Council of Churches,
African National Union-Patriotic Front, Zanu-pf,
National Liberation War Veterans Association, Christopher Mutsvangwa,
Emmerson Mnangagwa, Grace Mugabe

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Jul-16 World View -- ISIS claims responsibility for attack on Shia Hazaras in Kabul Afghanistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS claims responsibility for attack on Shia Hazaras in Kabul Afghanistan
  
• Kabul attack targeted Afghanistan's repressed Hazara minority
  

****
**** ISIS claims responsibility for attack on Shia Hazaras in Kabul Afghanistan
****


Thousands of Shia Hazara protesters in Kabul on Saturday, just prior to the attack (Reuters)

At least 80 people, mostly Shia Muslim Hazaras, were killed on
Saturday in the worst terror attack in Kabul, the capital city of
Afghanistan, since 2001. The venue was a rally by some 10,000 Shia
Hazaras, protesting a government policy related to electricity.
Afghanistan's interior ministry issued a statement:

[indent]<QUOTE>"As a result of the attack 80 people were martyred and
231 others were wounded. The attack was carried out by three
suicide bombers... The third attacker was gunned down by security
forces."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Amaq News, the public relations agency of the so-called Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), claimed that "ISIS fighters detonated
explosive belts amidst a 'gathering of Shi’ites' in Deh Mazang in
Kabul Afghanistan." This needs to be confirmed, however, since ISIS
has developed the policy of claiming credit for almost every criminal
act in the world, whether they've had anything to do with it or not.

However, the credibility of the ISIS claim may be supported by the
statement issued by the Afghan Taliban denying responsibility:

[indent]<QUOTE>"We wish to make clear that the Mujahideen of Islamic
Emirate have no hand in this incident. At the same time we
strongly condemn all acts of cynicism which seek to divide the
nation into ethnic groups and sides and then pushed into war. Such
incidents are carried out by enemies of the nation and is a
deplorable step."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

No doubt the Taliban issued this statement because they consider ISIS
to be their enemy, and are themselves threatened by the rise of ISIS
in Afghanistan.

But the statement is laughable nonetheless. The Afghan and Pakistan
Taliban have killed thousands of Shia Hazaras in recent years. In
fact, two branches of the Pakistani Taliban, Jundullah (Soldiers of
God) and Jaish-ul-Adl (Army of Justice), have committed themselves to
the extermination of all Shias, and have even conducted numerous
terrorist acts on Iranian soil.

Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani said in a live television
address:

[indent]<QUOTE>"I promise you I will take revenge against the
culprits. I have ordered the attorney-general to set up a
commission to investigate this incident."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This statement is also laughable, as Ghani has promised revenge
against perpetrators of terror acts in the past, to no avail. In this
case he's promising to set up a new commission, which should reassure
everyone. He's also banned public gatherings in Kabul for 15 days.
Khaama Press (Kabul) and Financial Express (India) and The Diplomat

****
**** Kabul attack targeted Afghanistan's repressed Hazara minority
****

The Kabul attack targeted a protest march by around 10,000 Hazaras,
protesting plans to develop a new power infrastructure that would
provide electricity to Kabul and Pashtun provinces, but would bypass
central regions that were home to the largest Hazara community. The
Persian-speaking Hazara people, estimated to make up about 9% of
Afghanistan's population, are the country's third-largest minority and
claim to have been repressed throughout the country's history. With
Afghanistan in a generational Awakening era, this kind of protest,
especially by young people, is to be expected.

Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody
civil war fought between 1991 and 1996. The war was fought mainly
between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern
Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan.
Today's Taliban terrorists are radicalized Pashtuns, and there's still
plenty of visceral hatred between the two sides.

It's no coincidence that both the Taliban and ISIS are fighting
against Shia Muslims. Just as the Shia Hazaras fought against the
Sunni Muslim Pashtuns in the bloody 1990s civil war, Syria's
Shia/Alawites, led by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, have been
attempting to exterminate the Sunni Muslims in Syria. In Syria,
al-Assad's genocidal actions have drawn thousands of young Sunni
Muslim jihadists from Indonesia to Pakistan to Algeria to Chechnya to
go to Syria to fight the Shias and Alawites, and these international
jihadists have formed the backbone of ISIS.

So, ISIS and the Taliban may be each other's mortal enemies, but
they're united in wishing to exterminate Shia Muslims -- al-Assad's
Shias in Syria and the Hazara Shia Muslims in Afghanistan. So,
whether it was the Taliban or ISIS that perpetrated Saturday's attack,
it was not surprising that the Shia Hazaras were targeted.

The bigger picture is that we can see the growing conflict between
Shia Muslims and Sunni Muslims in the Mideast. This is the trend line
that I've been writing about for years, as predicted by Generational
Dynamics. Furthermore, Hindus have been allied with Shia Muslims
against Sunni Muslims in numerous bloody wars, starting with the
seminal Battle of Karbala in 680, while the Mongols and Chinese have
been bitter enemies of the Russians for centuries.

So it seems that every couple of days something happens to advance the
world along the predicted trend lines -- the US, India, Russia and
Iran versus China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Muslim
countries, with Afghanistan split between the Pashtuns and the
Northern Alliance. Reuters (just before the attack) and Deutsche Welle and Saudi Gazette


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kabul, Shias, Sunnis, Hazaras,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Taliban, Jundullah, Soldiers of God, Jaish-ul-Adl, Army of Justice,
Amaq News, Ashraf Ghani, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Uzbeks,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Alawites, Iran, Russia, India, Mongols, China,
Saudi Arabia

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Jul-16 World View -- Migrants trapped in Serbia march toward border with Hungary

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Migrants trapped in Serbia march toward border with Hungary
  
• The refugee problem continues, despite EU-Turkey deal
  

****
**** Migrants trapped in Serbia march toward border with Hungary
****


Last year's Balkan Route: Migrants arrive from Turkey to Greece, through Macedonia and Serbia, then through Hungary or Croatia.

Last year, hundreds of thousands of refugees, mostly from the war-torn
countries of Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, poured into Europe along the
so-called "Balkan route." The migrants reached Turkey, then crossed
the Aegean Sea to reach Greece and travel to the border with
Macedonia. They would cross Macedonia, then travel through Hungary
and Austria to reach Germany. In June of last year, Hungary announced
that it would build a razor-wire fence on the Hungary-Serbia border,
which they did in September. Then the refugees tried to travel from
Serbia into Croatia, and from there back into Hungary or into
Slovenia, and on to Austria and Germany. But those borders were
closed too. ( "20-Oct-15 World View -- As winter approaches, thousands of European refugees may be trapped in the cold"
.) In March of this year, the entire
"Balkan Route" was permanently closed.

Today, there are still about 3,000 refugees trapped in Serbia, living
either near the Hungary border, or in the capital city Belgrade. They
could apply for asylum in Serbia, but many don't want to do that,
because they really want to go to Germany and apply for asylum there.

On Friday, hundreds of refugees marched through Belgrade, launching a
hunger strike to demand passage to western Europe. In this context,
the "hunger strike" meant that they left untouched free food provided
by aid groups. They carried placards reading also stage a sitting
protest in Belgrade holding placards that read “Open the border,” “We
are responsible global citizens,” “No to violence,” “Stop wars if you
want to stop refugees” and “Prove that humanity is still alive.”

After the hunger strike, they began marching toward the border with
Hungary. By Sunday, about 300 young men (no women or children) were
nearing the border, alongside a "friendly" Serbian police escort. The
plan is to demand that Hungary open the border, and demand that is
unlikely to be met. There may be a confrontation on Monday. InSerbia and AFP and AP

****
**** The refugee problem continues, despite EU-Turkey deal
****

The EU-Turkey refugee deal has reduced the flow of refugees from
Turkey into Europe, but hasn't eliminated it entirely. More than
650,000 people passed through Serbia last year. So far in 2016, more
than 100,000 migrants have passed through Serbia, many of them being
guided by human traffickers whom they've paid. And 57,000 refugees
are trapped in Greece, many of them still hoping to reach Germany.

Many European officials are thankful that the recent coup attempt
in Turkey failed, because if it had succeeded, then the new
government might not have honored the refugee deal. But even
so, there are two major factors that could still cause the entire
refugee deal to unravel.

The EU committed to removing visa restrictions on EU travel by Turkish
citizens. June 30 was the deadline set by Turkey for the European
Union to lift visa restrictions on Turkey, so that any of Turkey's 72
million citizens can travel freely around Europe's Schengen zone.
Surprisingly, we haven't really heard anything about this plan since
early May, and Turkey may have decided to drop the subject after there
was so much opposition from some EU officials, because of Turkish
human rights violations.

Since the failed coup, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has
indicated that Turkey may reinstate the death penalty. Turkey
abolished the death penalty in 2004 as one of the reforms that had
been demanded by the European Union before Turkey would be allowed to
join the EU. If the death penalty is reinstated, then there will be
no chance that the EU will ease visa restrictions. There's probably
no chance anyway.

The other major issue that could unravel the refugee deal is that
Brussels ruled last September that some 160,000 refugees would be
distributed among the 28 EU member states. However, Slovakia, the
Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary have said that they will not agree
to accept any refugees. These feelings have hardened even further
as the result of recent terror attacks in Europe.

Even ignoring these two issues, Erdogan has fired almost 60,000 people
at all levels of government in Turkey. ( "22-Jul-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers, moving Turkey away from the West"
) With
Turkey's government in chaos, they may simply lose control of the
refugee situation, allowing a new surge of refugees into Europe.
Reuters and Al-Jazeera and Daily Mail (London) and Irish Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Europe, Balkan Route, Greece,
Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, Austria, Germany,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 26-Jul-16 World View -- People in Germany are reeling after a week of violence

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS takes credit for terror attack in Ansbach, southern Germany
  
• Germans in a state of shock after four violent attacks in one week
  
• Knife-wielding massacre near Tokyo Japan kills 19
  
• Germany's Der Spiegel asks: Is this the Apocalypse Now?
  

****
**** ISIS takes credit for terror attack in Ansbach, southern Germany
****


Germany's week of violence (CNN)

The Amaq News Agency, the public relations arm of the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) has taken credit for the
terror attack in Ansbach, southern Germany, on Sunday evening,
saying that the attack was carried out by "one of the soldiers of the
Islamic State."

The ISIS public relations statement was issued after the police
searched the mobile phone of the perpetrator, known only as "Mohammed
D", and found a video declaring loyalty to ISIS and announcing a
"revenge act against Germans because they are standing in the way of
Islam." However, it's believed that Mohammed D was a "lone wolf"
inspired by ISIS, but unknown to ISIS prior to the attack.

Mohammed D exploded a bomb on Sunday evening outside a large music
festival in Ansbach, injuring 15 people. He was prevented from
entering the music festival by police since he didn't have a ticket.
There was heavy security at the festival because of three previous
violent attacks in Germany during the week.

Mohammed D was a 27-year-old Syrian national who had arrived in
Bulgaria in 2013, and was granted refugee status by Bulgaria in
September 2013. He left Bulgaria in mid-2014, and came to Germany,
where he applied for protection, which was denied. He received
deportation warnings from Germany between December 2014 and July of
this year, threatening to deport him back to Bulgaria, although it's
unclear whether Bulgaria would have accepted him.

Mohammed D had spent time living in a mental care facility and had
twice attempted suicide, but failed. On Sunday, he was successful.
Deutsche Welle and BBC and Novinite (Sofia Bulgaria)

****
**** Germans in a state of shock after four violent attacks in one week
****

Until this summer, Germany had been largely untouched by the wave of
terror that hit France and Belgium in recent years. But now, the
attack in Ansbach was the fourth violent attack in a week, and Germans
are becoming increasingly anxious. Many are blaming Chancellor Angela
Merkel for permitting close to a million refugees to enter Germany
last year.

On Monday, July 18, a teenage Afghan refugee hacked at passengers on a
train in Würzburg with an axe and knife, wounding five. He was shot
dead by police. ISIS claimed credit for the attack.

On Friday, July 22, a German-born teenager of Iranian descent shot
dead nine people in Munich before shooting himself dead. According to
police, gunman David Ali Sonboly was inspired by other mass shootings
that had no political motivation, such as a school massacre carried
out by 17-year-old Tim Kretschmer in Baden-Württemberg in 2009. It
would be surprising if someone whose heritage is Iran, which is a Shia
Muslim country, were inspired by ISIS or al-Qaeda, which are Sunni
Muslim terrorist groups.

On Sunday, July 24 in Reutlingen, a few hours before the Ansbach
attack, a 21-year-old Syrian refugee took a long knife from the kebab
shop where he worked, and used to kill a 45-year-old woman whom he had
claimed to be "in love" with. Some unconfirmed reports indicate that
the woman was pregnant. Five others were injured as well. A witness
hit the attacker with his car, knocking the man to the ground so that
police were able to arrest him seven minutes after the first attack.
The attacker was previously known to the police for assault and drug
offenses.

There's a thread of mental instability that runs through these
attacks. The Ansbach attacker had spent time in a mental care
facility, and had previously attempted suicide twice, as we mentioned
above. David Ali Sonboly carried out his attack on the fifth
anniversary of the 77 murders by far-right extremist Anders Behring
Breivik in Norway in 2011. The Reutlingen attack was apparently
related to an affair with a woman.

This has led some people to suggest that these attacks would all have
occurred anyway even without being "inspired" by ISIS, in the same way
that one public murder can lead to copycat murders.

Nonetheless, pressure is growing on Angela Merkel to revise her
policies on refugees. Her political allies point out that these
attacks were not directed by ISIS, but only claimed by ISIS after they
occurred. Her political enemies are blaming the attacks directly on
her policies. Germans will go to the polls about a year from now, and
Merkel has not yet announced whether she plans to run for a fourth
term. The Local (Germany) and Deutsche Welle and BBC and The Local (Germany)

****
**** Knife-wielding massacre near Tokyo Japan kills 19
****

In one of the worst mass attacks that Japan has seen, a man wielding a
knife went on a stabbing rampage in a care facility near Tokyo for
people with disabilities, killing at least 19 and wounding 25 others.

Satoshi Uematsu, 26, later drove to the police station and turned
himself in. He had a bag full of knives, some bloodstained, when he
turned himself in. He had been an employee of the care home, but had
been sacked. He told police that he wanted to rid the world of
disabled people.

Police say that there is no connection to terrorism. Japan Times and BBC

****
**** Germany's Der Spiegel asks: Is this the Apocalypse Now?
****

"I'm tired of living in interesting times," a Twitter user wrote
several days ago. According to an article in Germany's Der
Spiegel, people on social media ask every day: What is wrong with
2016? When will it be over? What more does it have in store for us?

In just the last few weeks, there was amass shooting in Orlando on
June 12, a huge Istanbul airport attack on June 28, a massive terror
attack in Dhaka on July 1, a deadly July 7 shooting in Dallas, and the
horrific Bastille Day attack in Nice on July 14. The next day, on
July 15, was the attempted coup d'état in Turkey.

And now, in the last week, there have been four violent attacks in
Germany, including two on Sunday, and a major knife attack in Japan on
Monday.

The article says:

[indent]<QUOTE>"This year, international political events have
overlapped in an unsettling way. Something seems to be coalescing
and brewing, though it's not yet clear what. Each new development
seems to come a bit faster than the last. It may have begun with
the Arab Spring in 2011, but it also continued with the wars in
Libya and Syria and was further exacerbated by the conflict
between Ukraine and Russia and the latest terrorist attacks. We
are witnessing the destabilization of the world as we've known it
since 1989."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In fact, this is exactly what always happens in a generational Crisis
era. There are many reasons, but there are two major ones. First,
the last of the Silent generation of survivors of World War II have
all but disappeared, and their wisdom is no longer available to
prevent geopolitical catastrophes, leaving the world at the mercy of
increasingly nationalistic, racist and xenophobic younger generations.

The second reason is the Malthusian reason. As the population
continues to increase exponentially, with 200,000 people added to the
global population every day, there have been massive flows of refugees
in the Mideast, Africa and Asia, destabilizing societies and nations
everywhere. Furthermore, growing populations are displacing more and
more farmland, and the population is growing faster than the food
supply, resulting in constantly increasing poverty and starvation.
Both of these reasons give rise to desperate people who are willing to
kill in order to get what they believe they're entitled to, and that
means increasing chaos and war.

I had to chuckle when I heard the media commentary on Donald Trump's
speech last week, characterizing it as full of "doom and gloom." I
watched the speech live and didn't think that it was particularly
gloomy at all, since all of those doom and gloom things are things
that I've been predicting for years, based on Generational Dynamics
analyses. Generational Dynamics also predicts that there are no
solutions to these problems except another world war.

The article concludes:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Many of us simply don't understand the world
anymore. It will probably be up to the historians of future
generations to accurately categorize what exactly it is that we're
experiencing in these times of transition. This is, however, not
the time to give in to panic -- it is time to have confidence in
one's own values and keep fighting for the society one believes
in. Geopolitical turmoil is best overcome when one is grounded in
clear convictions, which holds true for both citizens and
countries as a whole. First of all, a clear compass is needed in
order to take responsibility for foreign policy, confront
dictators and manage the crises that we're
witnessing."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

I would respond by saying that those who study Generational Dynamics
understand the world only too well, but just aren't happy with what
they understand. As Solomon, who had an excellent intuitive
understanding of generational theory, says in Ecclesiastes: "For with
much wisdom comes much sorrow; the more knowledge, the more grief."
Der Spiegel (Berlin)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Ansbach, Mohammed D, Syria, Bulgaria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Amaq News Agency, France, Germany, Afghanistan, Angela Merkel, Iran,
David Ali Sonboly, Reutlingen, Tokyo, Japan, Satoshi Uematsu,
Der Spiegel, Donald Trump, Solomon, Ecclesiastes

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Jul-16 World View -- France's François Hollande declares war on ISIS after terror attack kills priest

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Arab League in chaos as it fails to address Arab existential threats
  
• ASEAN in chaos as it fails to address South China Sea threats
  
• France's François Hollande declares war on ISIS after terror attack kills priest
  
• Turkey fears that Gulen will flee the United States
  

****
**** Arab League in chaos as it fails to address Arab existential threats
****


27th Arab League Summit opened on Monday in Mauritania in a large tent

The Arab League summit meeting was supposed to take place in Marrakesh
in Morocco on March 27, but at the last minute Morocco refused to host
the meeting, saying in a statement:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Amid the lack of important decisions and concrete
initiatives to submit to the heads of states, this summit will be
just another occasion to approve ordinary resolutions and to
pronounce speeches that give a false impression of unity.

Arab leaders cannot confine themselves, once more, to simply
analyzing the bitter situation of divergences and divisions
without giving decisive responses."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Finally, Mauritania agreed to host the meeting in the capital city
Nouakchott. However, this is a small Arab country that rarely hosts
conventions, so the summit meeting was held in a big tent.

It was supposed to be a meeting of the leaders of all 22 members, but
only a handful of leaders showed up. Egypt's president Abdel Fattah
al-Sisi, declined to go, reportedly because he feared an assassination
attempt. Saudi Arabia's king Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud declined to
attend allegedly for health reasons. Other no-shows included the
leaders of Tunisia, Jordan, Algeria, and the Palestinian Authority.

There were pressing issues for the Arab League summit to discuss --
the rise of ISIS, conflict in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya, sectarian
conflicts between Shias and Sunnis, for example -- but none of those
were given serious deliberation.

In the last few years, millions of Arabs have lost their homes, become
displaced and become refugees, while hundreds of thousands of others
have been killed. Arab lands have been wracked by bombs, missiles,
terrorism, even Sarin gas, and the Arab League is completely unable to
cope.

There was one hot issue worth mentioning: Palestinian Authority
Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki called on the Arab League to help
prepare a legal file to sue Britain's government for issuing the
Balfour Declaration in 1917. (See "10-May-16 World View -- Arab countries seek to overturn the century old Sykes-Picot agreement"
) The Balfour Declaration
was an early document justifying the creation of the state of Israel
in 1947.

Beyond that, there were some discussions about free-trade zones and
such, but the existential questions affecting pan-Arab security were
avoided.

So what's the point of the Arab League? Al-Arabiya (27-Mar) and Gulf News and Brookings and Jerusalem Post

****
**** ASEAN in chaos as it fails to address South China Sea threats
****

China scored a major diplomatic victory on Monday when the ten nation
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) published a communiqué
that contained only a very watered-down statement of what is by far
the biggest issue facing ASEAN: The approaching conflict in the South
China Sea.

Several nations wanted the communiqué to mention the recent ruling by
the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague that eviscerated
China's legal justifications for using military force to annex regions
of the South China Sea that had historically belonged to other
nations. In one part of the ruling, the Tribunal concluded that China
was illegal building an artificial island in part of the exclusive
economic zone (EEZ) of the Philippines, and was deliberately taking
actions that put the lives of Philippines' fishermen in danger.
( "13-Jul-16 World View -- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea"
)

However Cambodia, a close ally of China, was able to block any mention
at all of the Tribunal ruling. According to analysts, Cambodia, Laos,
Thailand and to some extent Myanmar (Burma) are becoming increasingly
dependent economically on China, and don't wish to undermine their
bilateral relationships with China.

Acceding to China's demands, the final ASEAN communiqué said only the
following:

[indent]<QUOTE>"We remain seriously concerned about recent and
ongoing developments and took note of the concerns expressed by
some ministers on the land reclamations and escalation of
activities in the area, which have eroded trust and confidence,
increased tensions and may undermine peace, security and stability
in the region."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

China issued a statement thanking Cambodia, and saying, "Cambodia's
position was the right one and it would safeguard the unity of ASEAN
and cooperation with China."

So the same question is asked of ASEAN as with the Arab League.
What's the point of ASEAN? What's the point of the Arab League?

The same could be asked of the United Nations. There are major crises
in Ukraine, Syria, and elsewhere, and the United Nations is completely
helpless to do anything about them. Like the League of Nations that
it replaced, in many ways it's become just a debating club. What's
the point of the United Nations? BBC and Telegraph (London) and Reuters

****
**** France's François Hollande declares war on ISIS after terror attack kills priest
****

Two attackers slit the throat of and killed an 85-year-old priest
celebrating Mass in a Catholic church in France in the small
northwestern town of Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, near Rouen. The
attackers gravely injured one of the worshippers present, and then
made a video of themselves giving "a sermon in Arabic" in front of the
altar. The police shot both attackers dead.

As usual, the Amaq News Agency, the public relations agency for the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), rushed to claim
credit, saying, "The perpetrators of the Normandy church attack are
soldiers of the Islamic State who carried out the attack in response
to calls to target countries of the Crusader coalition."

This attack followed several terror attacks in France in recent
months, as well as four attacks in the last week in Germany. ( "26-Jul-16 World View -- People in Germany are reeling after a week of violence"
)

France's president François Hollande has used relatively mild rhetoric
in the past, but now, under pressure from opposition political
parties, Hollande declared war on ISIS:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Our country is at war. We are at war externally, in
Syria and Iraq, and internally, against radicalization, against
individual jihadists. [We are] eradicating the criminal networks,
and we will continue.

I also owe you the truth - this war will be long. What it’s aimed
at is our democracy. Our democracy is the target and it will be
our strength, because our unity is our strength. It’s with
perseverance that we will succeed. In that way we will be able to
win the war against fanaticism and pain, and we will win this
war."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

As usual, politicians around the world condemned the attack in
strongest terms. AP and EU Observer

****
**** Turkey fears that Gulen will flee the United States
****

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to blame Fethullah
Gulen, the 76-year-old Turkish Muslim cleric exiled to the Pocono
Mountains in Pennsylvania, for the failed July 15 anti-government
coup. ( "22-Jul-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers, moving Turkey away from the West"
)

Turkey has filed a request for the US to extradite Gulen to Turkey.
An American court would have to make the decision to extradite Gulen
to Turkey, and that would require firm evidence that Gulen was
actually involved in the coup, something that seems unlikely to be
provided.

Turkish Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag says that "intelligence" shows
that Gulen is planning to flee the United States "at any moment" to a
country with no extradition treaty with Turkey. "We think that he is
searching for countries to run to, he has chosen some countries," he
said, identifying Egypt, Mexico, Canada, Australia and South Africa as
places where he could seek refuge. Anadolu (Ankara) and Russia Today


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Arab League, Morocco, Mauritania,
Egypt, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud,
Palestinian Authority, Riyad al-Maliki, Balfour Declaration, Israel,
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN,
Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, Philippines,
Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Burma, China,
Ukraine, Syria, United Nations,
France, François Hollande, Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, Rouen,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Amaq News Agency,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Fethullah Gulen, Bekir Bozdag,
Egypt, Mexico, Canada, Australia, South Africa

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 28-Jul-16 World View -- China, Japan vociferously object to South Korea's THAAD missile system deployment

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China and Russia vociferously hostile to South Korea's THAAD deployment
  
• South Korea's fears of an attack from North Korea
  
• Problems, issues and capabilities surrounding the Thaad system
  

****
**** China and Russia vociferously hostile to South Korea's THAAD deployment
****


Residents of Seongju, where Thaad is to be deployed, conducting anti-Thaad protests in Seoul (Korea Times)

Earlier this month, the US and South Korea announced the deployment of
the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea by the
end of the year. It's considered to be the most advance anti-missile
system available anywhere today because it can blast incoming missiles
out of the sky with 100% success rate.

It's part of the Obama administration's policy of "Pivot To Asia."
Its purpose is to provide both South Korea and Japan with a defense to
increasing threats from North Korea of missile attacks, both
conventional and nuclear.

Despite request from the US for years, South Korea had resisted
deployment of the Thaad system for years, for fear of angering the
Chinese. What finally triggered the change of mind was North Korea's
fourth nuclear bomb test on January 6, followed by a long-range
missile test on February 7.

North Korea immediately said it would retaliate against South Korea,
threatening to launch a retaliatory strike against the THAAD
deployment by turning the South "into a sea of fire and a pile of
ashes." It then conducted more tests, launching three missiles into
the sea off the east coast of the Korean peninsula.

Russia's Foreign Ministry said that the Thaad deployment would
escalate tensions in the region:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Such actions, no matter how they are explained, very
negatively affect global strategic security, adherence to which is
so often discussed by Washington. They may also result in
escalation of tensions in the region, new difficulties for
resolving acute problems of the Korean Peninsula, including the
task of its denuclearization."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

China compares the deployment of Thaad in South Korea to the
deployment of nuclear missiles in Cuba in 1962. According to China's
state media:

[indent]<QUOTE>"If Seoul believes that Washington's missile shield
could effectively deter the threats from the North, it is making a
strategic mistake.

The truth is that the United States does not care about whether
South Korea is safe or not. What it truly wants is an anti-missile
system that could guarantee America's military supremacy in the
Asia-Pacific and beyond.

After the United States deployed four THAAD ... systems on its own
soil and installed two X-Band radars in Japan, South Korea is now
the missing piece. That's why Washington has relentlessly tried to
get THAAD into South Korea since 2012.

Once letting THAAD in, Seoul will become one of Washington's handy
tools, losing its autonomy in crafting and executing an
independent foreign policy."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

China's military said that it will take "necessary measures" to
respond to Thaad, without disclosing what those measures are.
Business Insider and VOA and Xinhua (Beijing) and Tass (Moscow) and The Hankyoreh (Seoul)

****
**** South Korea's fears of an attack from North Korea
****

On March 26, 2010, the South Korean warship Cheonan was sunk by an
explosion. (See "21-May-10 News -- S. Korea accuses N. Korea of sinking warship"
) Then, on
November 23 of the same year, the North Korean military launched
dozens of artillery shells on South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island, killing
four people, including two civilians. ( "24-Nov-10 News -- South Korean civilians shelled by North Koreans"
)

Both of these incidents were acts of war on the part of North Korea,
though South Korea never retaliated, but instead allowed the situation
to cool down. But with subsequent nuclear tests and long-range
missile tests, many South Koreans believe that the North is just
waiting for the appropriate time for a full-scale attack on the
south, starting with the extremely vulnerable capital city Seoul,
which is only a few miles from the DMZ (the demiliterized zone,
separating North and South Korea).

Last year, South Korean media reported that a defector who used to
serve in a senior position in the North Korean military revealed that
in August 2012, South Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un approved a
plan for a 7-day asymmetric war against the South, and that Kim has
been implementing the plan since then.

The objective is that the North would occupy the entire South Korean
territory within seven days, before United States reinforcements could
arrive. It also contains a plan to conclude the war within 15 days at
most if the North cannot end the war within a week due to resistance
by the South and U.S. Forces Korea.

The report lists the following "asymmetric capabilities" that the
North would use against the South:

• The North is at a final stage of completing nuclear arms, and
  has made progress in miniaturizing them to place on missiles.
  
• It has 1,000 short, medium and long-range missiles.
  
• North increased multiple rocket launchers from 4,800 to
  5,500.
  
• It has 70 submarines and is developing new ones.
  
• The North increased its special operations forces from 80,000 to
  200,000.
  
• It developed hovercraft and new high-speed, wave piercing craft
  called Very Slender Vessels (VSVs).

According to a South Korean intelligence official:

[indent]<QUOTE>"The North did thorough analyses of the wars in Iraq
and Afghanistan. It concluded that it won’t have a chance if a
war drags on. To end it quickly, Pyongyang reached a decision that
asymmetric warfare is the only answer, despite the pressures and
condemnations of the international community."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

JoongAng Ilbo (Seoul, 8-Jan-2015)

****
**** Problems, issues and capabilities surrounding the Thaad system
****

On Tuesday, South Korea deported two Korean-American activists on
after they tried to enter the country for a "peace tour" that would
have seen them take part in anti-Thaad protests.

Anti-Thaad protests have been increasing in South Korea, particularly
among residents of Seongju, a rural county about 180 miles from Seoul,
which is where the Thaad system is to be deployed. Residents feared
harmful radiation that could be emitted from the Thaad's
electromagnetic radar waves. In order to defuse these protests, the
US military personnel invited South Korean reporters to Guam to
inspect a Thaad installation that was already installed, similar to
the one being planned for Seongju county. US personnel showed that
the radiation levels were far below those permitted by law.

This didn't satisfy the residents of Seongju, however, as they pelted
the car of prime minister Hwang Kyo-ahn with eggs during his visit to
the town and left him stranded in his car for hours.

Other protesters simply claimed that the Thaad deployment would not
protect the South from an attack by the North. An in-depth analysis
by the U.S.-Korea Institute (38North) at Johns Hopkins University
shows that a Thaad deployment, combined with an upgrade of South
Korea's existing Patriot anti-missile system, could protect all of
South Korea from North Korean missiles:

[indent]<QUOTE>"The THAAD system intercepts incoming short, medium
and intermediate range ballistic missiles above the
atmosphere—exoatmospheric intercept—providing an upper-tier layer
of defense when operating in conjunction with the lower-tier
Patriots. THAAD consists of five primary components: interceptor
missiles, launch canisters, AN/TPY-2 phased array radar, a
fire-control unit, and support equipment—including a
power-generation and cooling units. These can detect and track
targets at a range of about 1000 km—assuming the target has a
radar-cross section of about 1 m2."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, it isn't 100% effective, and a nuclear missile could still
pass through, causing many casualties. Hankyoreh (Seoul) and UPI and 38 North (10-Mar-2016) and Lockheed Martin



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, Seongju county,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, China, Russia,
Cheonan, Yeonpyeong Island, Kim Jong-un, 38 North

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 29-Jul-16 World View -- Syria's Al-Nusra splits with al-Qaeda, becoming Jabhat Fateh al-Sham

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's Al-Nusra splits with al-Qaeda, becoming Jabhat Fateh al-Sham
  
• Al-Nusra may have learned lessons from failures of ISIS and al-Qaeda in Iraq
  

****
**** Syria's Al-Nusra splits with al-Qaeda, becoming Jabhat Fateh al-Sham
****


Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the smiling terrorist leader of Jabhat al-Nusra

Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), al-Qaeda's branch in Syria,
announced on Thursday that it is no longer affiliated with al-Qaeda,
and was no longer under the command of al-Qaeda leader Ayman
al-Zawahiri.

The group's leader, Abu Mohamad al-Jolani, announced that the group
was changing its name to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (Front for the Conquest
of Syria):

[indent]<QUOTE>"We have stopped operating under the name of Nusra
Front and formed a new body ... This new formation has no ties
with any foreign party.

[The change is intended] to remove the excuse used by the
international community – spearheaded by America and Russia – to
bombard and displace Muslims in the Levant: that they are
targeting the Nusra Front, which is associated with
al-Qaida.

This new organization aims ... to serve the Muslims, attend to
their daily needs and ease the hardships in every possible way,
[and to] unite the people of [Syria and] ensure security,
stability, and a dignified life for the people."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, al-Jolani said he remained committed to implementing Islamic
law, and gave no indication that it was no longer a terrorist group.
Indeed, the U.S. immediately said that it would still consider the
group, under its new name, to be a terrorist group, with the
implication that targets associated with the group would still be
bombed.

The split with al-Qaeda was apparently friendly, suggesting that the
split may be part of a larger plan. In an audio message, al-Qaeda
leader Ayman al-Zawahiri said:

[indent]<QUOTE>"You can sacrifice without hesitation these
organizational and party ties if they conflict with your unity and
working as one body.

"The brotherhood of Islam among us is stronger than any
organizational affiliation ... Your unity and unification is more
important to us than any organizational link."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Anadolu (Ankara) and Reuters and Guardian (London)

****
**** Al-Nusra may have learned lessons from failures of ISIS and al-Qaeda in Iraq
****

Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) led by Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi, was defeated in the aftermath of the Iraq war, first by an
American drone strike that killed al-Zarqawi, and later by president
George Bush's "surge" strategy that turned Iraqi Sunnis against AQI.
(See "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from 2007.)

The genocidal campaign of extermination against Syrian Sunnis by
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad drew tens of thousands of young
jihadists from all over the world for the fight against al-Assad,
leading to the creation of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh) in Syria, and then its spectacular success in taking
control of large regions of both Syria and Iraq. But now, president
Barack Obama's bombing coalition strategy, in cooperation with Kurdish
and Shia Muslim fighters, has drastically reduced the regions under
ISIS control, and raised hope that ISIS is being defeated.

This is the context in which the al-Nusra - al-Qaeda split must be
viewed. Both AQI and ISIS imposed harsh Sharia law on the people that
they governed, and tortured, killed or raped anyone who didn't comply.
It should not be a surprise to anyone that no government of that sort
is going to be popular, and indeed both AQI and ISIS lost control when
their own constituents turned against them. In the end, even
dictators and terrorists must eventually have do what the people want.

Reports all along have indicated that al-Nusra was torn between
following a harsh Sharia model versus following a more moderate model
of governing. There was a big group of al-Nusra officials who wanted
to follow the harsh Sharia model, but there have also been a number of
"moderate" anti-Assad, anti-ISIS groups in Syria who have strongly
urged a split. The strongest opponent of a link to al-Qaeda was a key
ally, Ahrar al-Sham, and maintaining a good relation with this and
other allies was essential for the success of al-Nusra.

Thus, the break with al-Qaeda can be thought of in either of two ways.
First, it's a sign that al-Nusra has abandoned the harsh Sharia model
of governing, and so will be able to ally and possibly merge with
other anti-Assad opposition groups, and become the leader of all of
these groups, replacing ISIS as the largest and most powerful Salafist
anti-Assad opposition group in Syria.

The other way to look at it is that it's all a façade, that the
amicable split between al-Nusra and al-Qaeda had the purpose of
putting a more friendly face on al-Nusra, and that al-Nusra is still
allied with al-Qaeda, but not publicly.

It's possible that both of these are true, and that the new Jabhat
Fateh al-Sham will have the best of two worlds -- tacit support from
al-Qaeda, but with a more moderate face to the outside world and to
the other anti-Assad and anti-ISIS factions.

There's another advantage, according to Brookings analyst Charles
Lister:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Perhaps more significantly, this latest development
has also made it entirely feasible that regional states, notably
Qatar and Turkey, could now attempt to provide direct material
support to the group. Turkey in particular is likely to use the
argument that, having announced a severing of its ties to
al-Qaeda, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham is as legitimate a partner as
Washington’s preferred [anti-ISIS] ally, the Kurdish
YPG."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This is a good time to recall the Generational Dynamics prediction for
where things are going and where the trend lines are, since there
seems to be a new event every week or two that moves us along that
trend line. As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics
predicts that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China,
Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries will be one side, and India,
Iran, the United States and the West will be on the other side.
( "15-Jul-2015 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal"
)

Once again, we have a major new event that moves us along this trend
line. Over the past few years, we've seen events that move the US
closer to Iran and Russia, and we've seen the increasing alienation of
relations between the US and countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

Even in the last few days, we see a possible major split between the
US and Turkey, with Turkey claiming that exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen
worked with the CIA to launch the recent attempted coup d'état,
and claiming further that any further delay in extraditing Gulen to Turkey will be proof of American complicity.

Despite reports that ISIS was being funded by Turkey and Saudi Arabia,
ISIS has always been and will be too dangerous to the governments of
both those countries. But the new Jabhat Fateh al-Sham could very
well turn out to be the key that unites a wider group of Sunni Arabs
against al-Assad, Iran, Russia, and eventually against the United
States, moving the Mideast even further along the trend line.
CS Monitor and Foreign Policy and Press TV (Tehran)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Abu Mohamad al-Jolani, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al-Qaeda in Iraq, AQI, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Bashar al-Assad, Ahrar al-Sham, Brookings Institution, Charles Lister,
Qatar, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Fethullah Gulen, Saudi Arabia

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Ragnarök_62]

John J. Xenakis[/quote Wrote:****
**** Syria's Al-Nusra splits with al-Qaeda, becoming Jabhat Fateh al-Sham
****


Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the smiling terrorist leader of Jabhat al-Nusra


The group's leader, Abu Mohamad al-Jolani, announced that the group
was changing its name to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (Front for the Conquest
of Syria):

   [indent]<QUOTE>"We have stopped operating under the name of Nusra
   Front and formed a new body ... This new formation has no ties
   with any foreign party.

   [The change is intended] to remove the excuse used by the
   international community – spearheaded by America and Russia – to
   bombard and displace Muslims in the Levant: that they are
   targeting the Nusra Front, which is associated with
   al-Qaida.

   This new organization aims ...  to serve the Muslims, attend to
   their daily needs and ease the hardships in every possible way,
   [and to] unite the people of [Syria and] ensure security,
   stability, and a dignified life for the people."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, al-Jolani said he remained committed to implementing Islamic
law, and gave no indication that it was no longer a terrorist group.
Indeed, the U.S. immediately said that it would still consider the
group, under its new name, to be a terrorist group, with the
implication that targets associated with the group would still be
bombed.

The split with al-Qaeda was apparently friendly, suggesting that the
split may be part of a larger plan.  In an audio message, al-Qaeda
leader Ayman al-Zawahiri said:

 
****
**** Al-Nusra may have learned lessons from failures of ISIS and al-Qaeda in Iraq
****

Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) led by Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi, was defeated in the aftermath of the Iraq war, first by an
American drone strike that killed al-Zarqawi, and later by president
George Bush's "surge" strategy that turned Iraqi Sunnis against AQI.
(See "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from 2007.)

Now, that's change Eric can believe in.

Quote:The genocidal campaign of extermination against Syrian Sunnis by
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad drew tens of thousands of young
jihadists from all over the world for the fight against al-Assad,
leading to the creation of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh) in Syria, and then its spectacular success in taking
control of large regions of both Syria and Iraq.  But now, president
Barack Obama's bombing coalition strategy, in cooperation with Kurdish
and Shia Muslim fighters, has drastically reduced the regions under
ISIS control, and raised hope that ISIS is being defeated.

Oh, that, John.  Since Assad is being a bad boy, then the US is supposed to intervene in some far off country?
Well, if that's the case, you gotta support some drone strikes in Turkey now. Oh, you said Kurds above. Guess what?  Turkey hates Kurds and has rockedeted them even.  Since rockets and barrel bombs so sorta the same stuff, ya gotta support some dronies for Turkey now as well.   Oh, when are ya gonna bring up some stuff in 
Honduras that Hillary had something to do with?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pos...uras-coup/

Quote:This is the context in which the al-Nusra - al-Qaeda split must be
viewed.  Both AQI and ISIS imposed harsh Sharia law on the people that
they governed, and tortured, killed or raped anyone who didn't comply.
It should not be a surprise to anyone that no government of that sort
is going to be popular, and indeed both AQI and ISIS lost control when
their own constituents turned against them.  In the end, even
dictators and terrorists must eventually have do what the people want.

Yeah, John, that means the US needs to go back to kindergarten and learn to keep its hands to itself.

Quote:This is a good time to recall the Generational Dynamics prediction for
where things are going and where the trend lines are, since there
seems to be a new event every week or two that moves us along that
trend line.  As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics
predicts that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China,
Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries will be one side, and India,
Iran, the United States and the West will be on the other side.
( "15-Jul-2015 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal"

Once again, we have a major new event that moves us along this trend
line.  Over the past few years, we've seen events that move the US
closer to Iran and Russia, and we've seen the increasing alienation of
relations between the US and countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

Hmm... clash of civilizations?  OK, before there are civilizations, after there's nothing but glow in the dark people eking it out in Dark Ages 2.0.  I must admire that huge reset you've been talking about.

[John J. Xenakis]

It's unclear to me what point you're trying to make here, but I'll
just make one point. When you compare the actions of the United
States versus those of other countries, you have to look at the
motives. People like Hitler, Stalin and al-Assad are psychopathic
genocidal murderers, that take actions often with the objective of
exterminating an entire race or society.

When the United States takes an action, it almost always has a
benevolent objective, where the US is playing its role as the
policeman of the world, following the policies laid down in the 1947
Truman Doctrine. It's always possible for police actions to go wrong
and to be heavily criticized, but that's still completely different
from trying to exterminate an entire race.

[Ragnarök_62]

(07-29-2016, 04:56 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: When the United States takes an action, it almost always has a
benevolent objective, where the US is playing its role as the
policeman of the world, following the policies laid down in the 1947
Truman Doctrine.  It's always possible for police actions to go wrong
and to be heavily criticized, but that's still completely different
from trying to exterminate an entire race.

That it, there John, the US is not what it was in 1947.  The US is a hollowed out, debt besotted place that can't sustain the Policeman of the World role anymore. As for promoting human rights, well Guantanamo,  NSA spying, dark prisons in Poland make those words hollow.  One look at Detroit is the perfect metaphor.

[b Wrote:X_4AD_84][/b]
in foilers on both the Right and Left view the USA as "Amerika" and cast it as "an Empire." They believe in the man behind the curtain, in this case a cabal of Wall Street and large corporations. To be sure, such entities lobby and influence policy. However, government and the private sector are not merged, as they would be under a totalitarian system or absolute monarchy. But the tin foilers can't see beyond their Quiigleyesque conspiracy theories, and therefore, everything done by the US government is deemed the work of the man behind the curtain, and worthy of anarchy.

The US is an empire.  Only empires have 100's of military bases strewn all over the world and a defense budge that exceeds the rest of the world combined.  I'm not saying the US is a horrid place, but rather we should just STFU and just let the world go on without our constant meddling. We have other priorities like fixing our infrastructure, moving to renewable energy,  weed legalization, etc.   Sorry, the Imperial project of ensuring others are just like us or the US setting some sort of moral agenda ain't for me.  

I think what you're looking for wrt me is not anarchy, but economic nationalism. It's the US as a nation state that's #1, not we are the world Kumbaya shit.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Jul-16 World View -- Fearing more Brexit-like votes, EU abandons fiscal rules for Spain, Portugal, Italy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Portugal and Spain will not be fined for breaching deficit rules
  
• Italy's Monte Paschi bank gets 5 billion euro bailout from other banks
  
• Earnings fall, but central bank liquidity floods markets, pushing up stocks
  

****
**** Portugal and Spain will not be fined for breaching deficit rules
****


Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem makes a face during a European Union finance ministers meeting in Brussels on July 12 (Reuters)

The European Commission, supported by the Eurogroup of individual
nations' finance ministers, has chosen to cancel fines that Spain and
Portugal owed for breaching EU fiscal rules requiring that their
deficit be lower than 3% of GDP. The budget deficits of both
countries are considered excessive under EU rules. Spain and
Portugal’s deficits last year hit 5.1 percent and 4.4 percent,
respectively.

Markus Ferber, a German member of the European Parliament said "this
is not only disappointing, but it destroys the confidence and
credibility of our rules — it is a bad day for our common currency."

Pierre Moscovici, a French politician and currently the European
Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs,
said "This proves that we can be at the same time credible and
understanding. It’s not the end of the story. We will have to see
what [Spain and Portugal’s] draft budgetary plans are for 2017. So
credibility is fully there."

France is the next country in line for close scrutiny by the European
Commission, with budget plans due by October 15. In the past, France
has been accused of receiving preferential treatment. Earlier this
year, Jean-Claude Jüncker suggested that France should not face
punitive action for its inability to meet EU expectations, "because it
is France."

This love-fest for France was criticized by Ferber, who said: "I don’t
like Jüncker’s comments on France. The country is performing badly and
will have to see the same treatment. Nothing in the rules allows for
the differentiation of member states."

According to one analyst: "This will strike some as a negative in
terms of credibility, but the enforcement of the fiscal compact has
always been political in nature, and the decision is a pragmatic one.
Europe doesn’t need another crisis to deal with right now. Amid the
migrant crisis, the terrorist threat, the Brexit vote, and rising
populism, it doesn’t need a conflict over fiscal rules as well."

In fact, this is clearly a case of "kicking the can down the road,"
something we saw repeatedly in Greece's financial crisis which,
incidentally, is still far from being resolved. Spain and Portugal
are now going to be set new deadlines and required to follow austerity
rules that they've failed to follow in the past. Reuters and Politico (EU) and Fitch Ratings

****
**** Italy's Monte Paschi bank gets 5 billion euro bailout from other banks
****

As expected, Italy's third-largest bank, Banco Monte dei Paschi di
Siena (MPS), founded in 1472, and the world's oldest operating bank,
failed the European Central Bank (ECB) "stress tests," whose results
were scheduled for release on Friday. ( "5-Jul-16 World View -- Italy bank crisis more dangerous to EU than Brexit"
)

Not only did MPS fail, it got by far the lowest score of all 51
European banks tested. The purpose of the "stress tests" is to
examine the bank's liabilities and assets, including bad loans, to
determine whether the bank could survive a recession. With $55.2
billion in bad loans, MPS was never going to come close to passing the
stress test.

After failing the stress test, ECB rules require MPS to lower its
portfolio of bad loans, and selling the bad loans to a third part
would only get 20% of face value, and this would require a major bank
bailout.

As we described in the previous article, there are two ways that MPS
could get a bailout:

• The state (Italy) could bail out the bank out of public funds.
  What the experience with Greece has shown is that if the state bails
  the bank itself out of its financial crisis, then the state itself has
  a financial crisis. The Greece experience caused the ECB to issue
  regulations making it illegal for the state to bail out a bank.
  
  
• The people who purchased bonds and shares issued by the bank could
  "take a haircut," meaning that the values of the bonds would be
  reduced, while ordinary savings accounts would be spared. Italy
  actually used this method last year with four small regional banks,
  but it caused a major scandal because salesmen at these banks had
  aggressively sold high-risk subordinated bonds to people in lieu of
  savings accounts, saying that they were perfectly safe, as safe as
  savings accounts, with a much higher return. The result was that some
  130,000 shareholders and junior bond holders lost money in the rescue,
  including many pensioners.

On Friday, MPS found another way to get a bailout, while still staying
within ECB rules. MPS will be bailed out by other banks, who will
lend MPS 5 billion euros.

The banks being named are: Santander, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Credit
Suisse, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America. The deal will require MPS
to sell off 27 billion euros of the bank’s bad debt, repackaged into
securities worth a much smaller amount, 9.2 billion euros.

The bailout plan will give MPS 5 billion euros on which to survive,
but this is the third such loan in two years, and MPS has already
burned through 8 billion euros from the two previous bailouts.

So, once again, it's been necessary to "kick the can down the road,"
until the next episode of the crisis. Reuters and Politico (EU)

****
**** Earnings fall, but central bank liquidity floods markets, pushing up stocks
****

We truly live in magical times. Earnings have been falling, but the
stock market keeps going up. It's as if the law of gravity has been
repealed. Or perhaps the alchemists have finally found a way to turn
lead into gold.


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at 25.03 on July 29, indicating a huge and growing stock market bubble (WSJ)

Let's start, as I often do, with price/earnings ratios, also called
stock valuations.

According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock
valuations index) on Friday morning (July 29) was at an astronomically
high 25.03. This is far above the historical average of 14,
indicating that the stock market bubble is still growing, and could
burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio
will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently
as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

The last time I wrote about this, the P/E ratio was a mere 24.23.
That astronomically high number has now shot up to 25.03. That's
because stock prices have been staying steady or going up, while
earnings have been falling so that the ratio (price/earnings) goes up.

Why are stock prices going up? It's because central banks around the
world are "printing money" through quantitative easing (QE) at huge
tsunami rates.

According to Deutsche Bank, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank
of Japan (BOJ) are together buying around $180 billion of assets a
month.

And that's not the end. The ECB is expected to increase its QE to
$110 billion, and the BOJ is expected to increase its QE program to
$80 billion. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to reactivate its
QE program, and supply $197 billion more QE.

It's mind-boggling beyond anything in history. There's never been
anything like it. It's a credit bubble of such enormous size that
it's impossible to predict the enormity of the disaster that will
ensue when it finally implodes -- which it certainly will.

Here's a quote from someone on tv described as a "tenured university
professor of economics at University of Maryland." It's one the
stupidest things I've ever heard, so I transcribed it:

[indent]<QUOTE>"Companies are learning how to use capital much more
effectively. So central banks may have printed a lot of money,
they are using money more efficiently, which lowers the price of
capital, and essentially raises P/E ratios. We are now trading at
about the 25 year average, but the long-term average the moving
average over time is trending up. My feeling is that we could be
looking at P/E ratios that are stable at 30 or 35 long-term. The
average historically is 25, and that's where we are
now."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Since I hear stupid things all the time on financial news channels,
let's pull this apart for educational purposes.

First, the P/E ratio now is around 25, but historically it's around
14, not 25. You'd think a "tenured professor of economics" would have
a clue about that.

Next, a P/E ratio is not stable at 25, and will certainly never be
stable at 30-35. So let's explain what's going on here, and why the
tenured professor is so confused.

The P/E ratio is actually the reciprocal of a low-risk investment
yield or interest rate. That is, the historical value of the P/E
ratio is 14, and its reciprocal is earnings/price, which is
historically around 1/14, or around 7%. This value, 7%, seems to be
some sort of natural constant, the natural value that investments pay
in "normal" times. That's why, in the decades after World War II, you
had investments that paid around 7%, and you had mortgage rates around
7%. Savings accounts paid a little less, because banks had to make
money, and government bonds paid a little less, because they were
considered as safe as cash.

So now you have a P/E ratio around 25, which corresponds to a 4%
investment yield, is far below the "natural" value of 7%, but is
possible because bond yields are now close to zero or are negative in
many parts of the world. At such low yields, an average investor
(without access to the huge floods of government money) is not willing
to invest his money. That's one reason why investments are so low
today. Who wants to invest in a shoe factory, if the most you can get
is 4%, and you could lose everything if the shoe factory fails?

So the tenured university economics professor says that he thinks the
P/E ratio will stabilize around 30-35, pushing the investment yield
down to 3%. That would only happen if much more of the world's
government bonds go to negative interest rates, and that can't
continue forever, meaning that a 30-35 P/E ratio is far from stable.

So this really is truly a magical, marvelous time to be alive. Enjoy
it while it lasts, Dear Reader. Reuters and MarketWatch


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Portugal, Spain, Jeroen Dijsselbloem,
European Central Bank, ECB, Markus Ferber, Pierre Moscovici,
Jean-Claude Jüncker, Greece, Italy, Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena, MPS,
Bank of Japan, BOJ, Bank of England, BoE

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 31-Jul-16 World View -- Philippines president Duterte cancels 'ceasefire' with Communist Party

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Philippines president Duterte cancels 'ceasefire' with Communist Party
  
• Generational history of the Philippines and the CPP-NPA
  
• FBI investigates alleged Russian hacking of Democrats' servers
  

****
**** Philippines president Duterte cancels 'ceasefire' with Communist Party
****


Duterte meets with the Maoist New People's Army on April 26, prior to being elected president (Minda News)

Philippines President Rodrigo R. Duterte on Saturday announced that he
was canceling a unilateral ceasefire with a Maoist terror group, the
Communist Party of the Philippines and New People's Army (CPP-NPA).
The New People's Army is the military arm of the CPP, though in
actuality they're a single organization.

During the campaign, Duterte had promised that he would arrange a
peace deal with the CPP-NPA, which had been conducting terror attacks
for close to 50 years, and is considered to be the longest-running
Maoist insurgency in the world. Ironically, the CPP was a long-time
supported of Duterte for years when he was mayor of Davao City,
believing that he supported their goal of installing a left-wing
government in Manila.

Duterte announced a unilateral ceasefire with the CPP-NPA on Monday,
July 25, but it lasted less than a week. Two days later, on
Wednesday, the NPA ambushed an armed forces unit that was heading back
to camp in accordance with the ceasefire, killing one soldier and
injuring four others. On Friday, Duterte declared that unless CPP-NPA
leaders implemented their own ceasefire by 5 pm on Saturday, he would
cancel the unilateral ceasefire, and that's what happened. Philippine Daily Inquirer and MindaNews (Mindanao) and CNN Philippines and Sun Star (Davao City, 16-May-2016)

****
**** Generational history of the Philippines and the CPP-NPA
****

The Communist Party of the Philippines was formed in 1968, at the
height of the generational Awakening era and of anti-government
student protests in many countries, including the United States,
France, Germany, and others. A pro-Maoist activist named José María
Canlás Sison began the movement with the goal of removing from power
the dictator Ferdinand Marcos, and of removing the influence of
"American imperialism" and "Japanese imperialism" from the country.
Japan and the Philippines had been enemies in World War II.

Violence and repression by Marcos' thugs aided the growth of the
CPP-NPA, reaching about 10,000 members at its peak, and was supported
by weapons, money and training from China's government. However, in
1976 the Philippines and China governments normalized relations, aided
by the memory that they had both been invaded and occupied by the
Japanese. The result for the CPP-NPA was that the Chinese cut off
relations with them.

The Awakening era climax for the Philippines occurred after the 1986
elections, in which the presidency was won by the Corazon Aquino,
widow of a popular oppositional senator who had been assassinated by
Marcos' thugs. Marcos himself was forced to flee the country, and
lived in exile in Hawaii until his death in 1989.

The defeat of Marcos, who had been dictator for 31 years, was
considered by many to be a victory of the CPP-NPA. After that
victory, the CPP-NPA began to lose its purpose, and turned against
itself, with thousands of its members being killed by other members.

Today, it's estimated that there are still about 4,000 members of the
CPP-NPA. Although the organization doesn't have anything like the
power it had during the reign of Marcos, it can still pull off
terrorist attacks to remind everyone that it's still around.

Sison, the founder of the group, still directs it at age 77, but has
lived in exile in the Netherlands for many years. Stanford University and Socialism.com (2005) and Jacobin Magazine (Aug-2015)

****
**** FBI investigates alleged Russian hacking of Democrats' servers
****

According to reports, the FBI is investigating hacking and cyber
attacks against servers run by several different Democratic Party
servers, and that Russia's government is suspected, allegedly to help
Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Several different hacking attacks have been alleged, including attacks
on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the
Democratic National Committee (DNC), and earlier servers controlled by
Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton.

Speaking as a computer industry professional and senior software
engineer, several things about this story are fishy.

First, the idea that Vladimir Putin ordered the hacking of the
Democratic Party servers, and then ordered the release of thousands of
hacked e-mail messages through "WikiLeaks," because he believed that
doing so would help Trump is bizarre. He would be well aware that any
such move had a good chance of backfiring, and could trigger sympathy
for Clinton, especially by releasing e-mail messages through
WikiLeaks.

The main issue is that no self-respecting "hacker" would attack the
Democratic Party servers without also attacking the Republican Party
servers. Even if we assume that Putin ordered the hacking he would
certainly have ordered the hacking of both.

So we have to assume that the Republican Party servers were attacked
as well. Why haven't there been any releases of these e-mail
messages? There are two possibilities:

• One possibility is that the Republican Party servers were
  better protected, and that the attack on them failed. The FBI
  recently accused Hillary Clinton of being "reckless" in protecting
  top-secret e-mail messages on servers, and it's possible that the same
  recklessness applied to all the Democratic Party servers, but not to
  the Republican Party servers.
  
  
• The other possibility is that the attack succeeded, but hasn't yet
  been revealed. Julian Assange, the accused rapist who is hiding out
  in the Ecuador embassy in London to avoid facing rape charges by two
  women in Sweden, has made a statement with respect to the e-mail
  releases by his "WikiLeaks" organization that there will be an
  "October surprise" with more e-mail messages. That's expected to be a
  release of more Democratic Party e-mail messages, but the "surprise"
  might be that it targets Republicans as well.

That corporate hacking has become extremely widespread -- by the
Russians, the Chinese, and by private organizations.

The hacking of Democratic Party networks should remind everyone of the
need for encrypting data on servers. I've seen myself that
corporations don't want to take the time to protect their servers,
since encrypting information doesn't create sales. ( "10-Mar-16 World View -- Hackers steal thousands of employee W-2 tax documents from Seagate Inc."
)

As I've said repeatedly in the past, if you have responsibility for a
corporate database containing such things as names, addresses, social
security numbers, medical information, and so forth, then put other
things on hold and immediately launch a project to encrypt each
critical data element, even it means losing a few sales. Reuters and NBC News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
Communist Party of the Philippines, CPP, New People's Army, NPA,
José María Canlás Sison , Ferdinand Marcos, China, Corazon Aquino,
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, DCCC,
Democratic National Committee, DNC, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, WikiLeaks, Republican Party,
Julian Assange, Sweden, Ecuador

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-Aug-16 World View -- Migrant Indian workers in Saudi Arabia face starvation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Migrant Indian workers in Saudi Arabia face starvation
  
• India and Saudi Arabia move to warm relations with each other
  

****
**** Migrant Indian workers in Saudi Arabia face starvation
****


India's Consulate in Jeddah distributes food to starving migrant workers on Sunday (The Hindu)

About 10,000 migrant workers from India are starving and living in
inhumane conditions in Saudi Arabia because they've received no pay
for seven months and are unable to buy food. Many have lost their
jobs, while others are continuing to work but are unpaid nonetheless.

Most are construction workers, but many large construction projects
have been canceled or cut back by the Saudi government because
sharply falling oil prices have caused a financial crisis in
the Saudi kingdom.

India's foreign minister Sushma Swaraj issued a statement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Large number of Indians have lost their jobs in Saudi
> Arabia and Kuwait. The employers have not paid wages, closed down
> their factories. The number of Indian workers facing food crisis
> in Saudi Arabia is over ten thousand."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Over the weekend, India's Embassy in Riyadh and its Consulate in
Jeddah distributed 15,475 kg of food to Indian migrants in five labor
camps in cities across Saudi Arabia over the weekend, to keep them
from starving. There are plans to bring thousands of these workers
back to India by the end of August.

There are about 3 million Indians living and working in Saudi Arabia,
most of them as blue-collar workers.

Separately, the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA)
has suspended the rights of Saudi companies to hire Filipino workers.
More than 11,000 overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in Saudi Arabia have
been laid off and are not receiving salaries. Sky News and The Hindu and Manila Bulletin

****
**** India and Saudi Arabia move to warm relations with each other
****

India's Minister of State for External Affairs V K Singh will travel
to Saudi Arabia to assess this week to assess the severity of the food
crisis facing the jobless migrants from India. He'll meet with Saudi
officials, and the meetings are expected to be cordial, despite the
difficulty of the situation.

Recently, Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud gave
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi a very warm welcome when he came
to visit in April. Modi and the Saudis signed five new bilateral
agreements to improve relations, covering intelligence sharing on
terrorism financing, increasing private investment and enhancing
defense cooperation.

India has to juggle several partnerships in the Mideast, including
relationships with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran, and
Israel. India receives 58% of its oil imports and 88% of
its liquefied natural gas imports from the Mideast. There are
7.3 million migrant Indians working in the region, and they sent
over $36 billion in remittances back to their families in India
in 2015.

The relationship is important to Saudi Arabia as well. India has huge
Muslim populations, both Sunni and Shia, making Saudi Arabia a major
tourist attraction. In particular, over 400,000 Indians visit Mecca
each year for the Muslim rituals (Hajj and Umrah).

There is also a political reason why Saudi and Indian relations
have been warming: Pakistan.

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are very closely tied together, but the
Saudis are still extremely angry at Pakistan's government because
Pakistan refused to contribute any troops last year to the Saudi war
against the Houthis in Yemen. So for the Saudis, a relationship with
India is a way of saying to Pakistan that they're not the only
dance partner.

India has been at war with Pakistan several times in the last 50
years, and tensions are very high in the disputed border regions.
( "21-Jul-16 World View -- India-Pakistan tensions grow over Kashmir issue"
) So for
India, a relationship with the Saudis is a way of telling the
Pakistanis that perhaps they can't count on Saudi support after all.

There are some similar issues with Iran, but in reverse. India and
Iran have very close relations, while Saudi Arabia and Iran were close
to war earlier this year. ( "4-Jan-16 World View -- Saudi Arabia cuts diplomatic ties with Iran as violent Shia protests spread around region"
)

Regular readers know that warm relations between Saudi Arabia and
India are counter-trend, as Generational Dynamics predicts that in the
coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan, and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be one side, and India, Iran, the United
States and the West will be on the other side. ( "15-Jul-2015 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal"
) So the warm Saudi-India relationship
will not continue.

Readers who find this confusing should recall that Germany and Britain
were close trading partners up until World War II began. Also, Russia
and the US were enemies before and after WW II, but were allies during
the war. The way to understand this is that during "normal" times,
politicians can make whatever policies they want, even total nonsense
policies. But during a generational crisis war like WW II, when the
nation and its way of life are facing existential threats, then
policies must be chosen that guarantee the survival of the nation,
even if it means reversing every policy that prevailed before the war.
Indian Express and Al Monitor (3-Apr) and Brookings (1-Apr)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Saudi Arabia, Philippines,
Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, Narendra Modi, Sushma Swaraj,
Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Iran, Pakistan, Israel, China

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Aug-16 World View -- Russia uses the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter in Aleppo Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Italy rescues 8,000 migrants in 5 days crossing Mediterranean Sea from Libya
  
• US military in Libya launches airstrikes against ISIS
  
• Russia uses the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter in Aleppo Syria
  

****
**** Italy rescues 8,000 migrants in 5 days crossing Mediterranean Sea from Libya
****


Refugee rescue operation by Marina Militaire (Italian Navy)

More than 1,500 migrants were rescued on Sunday off the coast of Libya
by Italy's coast guard. That brings to 8,000 the number that were
rescued in five days.

The EU-Turkey refugee deal has dramatically decreased the number of
migrants traveling from Turkey to Greece across the Aegean Sea, but
the flow of migrants from Libya to Italy is still continuing at full
speed. Since the beginning of this year, Italy's coast guard has
recued 94,000 migrants off the coast of Libya, while 3,000 have died
attempting the trip. RTE (Ireland)

****
**** US military in Libya launches airstrikes against ISIS
****

The US military has opened up a new front against the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), this time in Libya. The
US is already fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

The airstrikes come at the request of Libya's "Government of National
Accord" (GNA).

As we reported in January, Western countries felt that it was urgent
to mount a military action in Libya by the beginning of March. ( "6-Jan-16 World View -- US, Britain, France preparing new Libya military offensive early in 2016"
)
However, this military action was delayed because Italy, Libya's
former colonial power, has always insisted that Libya's government had
to approve any Western military action before it could occur. This
has been impossible, since there are two major governments in Libya,
one in Tripoli in charge of western Libya and one in Tobruk in charge
of eastern Libya. There are also nearly 2,000 militias running
different parts of Libya.

The United Nations approved Government of National Accord (GNA), which
has been meeting in Tripoli, but has received only lukewarm support
from the government in Tobruk. However, it now appears that the GNA
has resolved its internal disputes at least partially, to the extent
of permitting the US airstrikes, although there have been previous
airstrikes not approved by the GNA.

Monday's attack was the third element, Operation Odyssey Lightning of
a three-phase series of operations against ISIS, planned and
controlled by the US military's AFRICOM (Africa Command). The first
element of this three-phase plan was Operation Odyssey Resolve,
consisting of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance flights
designed to counter violent extremism in Libya. The second phase,
Operation Junction Serpent, provided targeting information. The third
phase, which began over the weekend, includes strike aircraft hitting
those targets.

Few details were given about future US military plans in Libya, and no
end date for the airstrikes was provided. The airstrikes may signal
the start of a U.S. broader mission to support the Libyan government.
Military Times and Reuters and Long War Journal

****
**** Russia uses the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter in Aleppo Syria
****

Russia's air force is bombing hospitals and civilian neighborhoods in
Aleppo in order to drive civilians out of the city into refugee camps.
Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that people staying
behind will be treated as terrorists:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We believe that those who remain in the positions
> occupied by ... terrorists, despite numerous months of calls to
> leave [the areas], don’t differ much from
> terrorists."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

There are hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians, including women
and children, living in Aleppo, and no more than a few dozen have been
leaving. Russia wants to drive civilians out of Aleppo into refugee
camps where they'll be vulnerable to further air strikes. As we wrote
in February, Russia is following a policy used against Grozny in the
1990s war against Chechnya. ( "19-Feb-16 World View -- Russia's attacks on civilian hospitals in Aleppo follow the 'Grozny model'"
)

Under this policy, Russia bombs schools, hospitals and civilian
neighborhoods, in order to create a refugee crisis, and to empty the
urban residential areas. Once that is achieved, heavy weapons can be
deployed to eradicate the remaining population, entailing widespread
destruction of homes and infrastructure.

Flattening Aleppo, killing hundreds of thousands of people, and taking
control of the ashes of Aleppo would still be an enormous victory for
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad who began a genocidal policy of
exterminating Sunni Muslims in Syria after they began peaceful
demonstrations at the beginning of the "Arab Spring" in 2011.

Fifteen years ago, the United Nations called Grozny, Chechnya, "the
most destroyed city on earth." In the aftermath of the destruction of
Grozny, Russia rebuilt the city frenetically so that its destruction
would be forgotten. But now, Russia apparently plans to make Aleppo
the new most destroyed city on earth. Russia Today and Daily Beast and BBC (3-Mar-2007)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Italy, Turkey, Greece,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Government of National Accord, GNA,
Syria, Chechnya, Grozny, Aleppo, Sergey Lavrov, Russia

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Aug-16 World View -- Iran furious at Palestinian meeting with Iran opposition group

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran furious at Palestinian meeting with Iran opposition group
  
• Maryam Rajavi: Leader of the Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK or MKO)
  
• Negative interest rates creating increased anxiety
  

****
**** Iran furious at Palestinian meeting with Iran opposition group
****


Maryam Rajavi's meeting in Paris with Mahmoud Abbas is infuriating Iran (Iran News Update)

On Saturday, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas met in
Paris with Maryam Rajavi, leader of the National Council of Resistance
to Iran (NCRI).

> [indent]<QUOTE>"President Mahmoud Abbas, at the meeting, reiterated
> the need to combat fundamentalism and terrorism in the region and
> informed Mrs. Rajavi of the latest developments in the Middle
> East, in particular regarding Palestine and France's initiative.
>
> Mrs. Rajavi expressed gratitude for the solidarity of the
> Palestinian resistance and its leader with the Iranian people and
> Resistance. She congratulated the Palestinian government on its
> victories and expressed hope that the goal of the Palestinian
> people would be achieved. She reiterated that the Iranian regime
> is the main instigator of sectarian discord, fundamentalism and
> terrorism in the entire region, in particular in Iraq, Syria,
> Lebanon, Yemen, and Palestine, but she added that today the
> mullahs' regime is at its weakest and most fragile and vulnerable
> state. ...
>
> Mrs. Rajavi reiterated that the regime is above all fearful of the
> solidarity and unity between the Iranian people and Resistance and
> the countries and nations of the region. Therefore, the countries
> of the region and the Iranian people and Resistance ought to take
> the initiative to free the region from the scourge of
> fundamentalism."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Rajavi has been an enemy of Iran's government for decades -- even
before the 1979 revolution -- so nothing that she said was surprising.
What was surprising, and what has apparently completely freaked out
Iran's government was the cordial meeting between Rajavi and Abbas.

A high Iranian official, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, responded
harshly:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Palestinians surely regret Mahmoud Abbas’s act of
> supporting terrorist instead of fighting with it. Mahmoud Abbas’s
> problem is that he is not focused on restoring the rights of
> Palestinians.
>
> Supporting terrorists instead of fighting them, not only does not
> lead to the liberation of Quds [Jerusalem] and weakening the
> Zionist regime, but also makes the Palestinian nation
> regret."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Another Iranian official said that Abbas was collaborating with the
CIA, which is common fare these days in countries that massacre their
own people. According to an advisor to Iran's foreign ministry:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"That man [Abbas] is known to us and documents from
> the US Embassy in Tehran revealed that he has been a collaborator
> with the Central Intelligence Agency for a long time and his
> actions in the past decades have proved that."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Mkhaimar Abusada, a university professor in the Gaza Strip, says that
this is all about money:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Palestinian Authority has made a decision to
> align itself with the so-called moderate Sunni Arab governments
> and in the meantime distance itself from Iran and the Shiite camp
> in the region, because it does not want to lose political and
> financial support of [the former]. That’s why the PA and
> President Mahmoud Abbas met with the Iranian opposition
> leader."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Abusada is correct. This really is all about the money.

As I've written a number of times in the past, the top leadership in
Iran, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, are almost
completely delusional in many ways.

First, they can't seem to grasp that the younger post-Revolution
generations are pro-Western. This was apparent in the early 2000s
when young college students were holding massive pro-Western
demonstration. Iran's security police bashed, tortured and killed
many college students for those protests, but they didn't change
opinions. Today, that generation is now 30-40 years old, in
positions of power, ready to take over when the old geezer mullahs
like Khamenei are gone.

Khamenei and the others are also delusional for believing that
they can buy the loyalty of the Palestinians. The Iranians
are Shias, and the Palestinians are Sunnis. There isn't a
snowflake's chance in hell that the Palestinians would ever
remain loyal to Iran. However, Iran for decades has supported
both the PA in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza with money and
weapons. The PA and Hamas have for decades paid lip service
to loyalty to Iran so that the money and weapons would keep
coming.

That whole arrangement has been falling apart anyway. When Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad in 2011 started conducting extermination
campaigns on Sunni civilians, including Palestinians living in refugee
camps in Syria, there was the previous close relationship between
Hamas and al-Assad was dissolved. And since Iran is supporting
al-Assad, there was a big strain on the relationship between
Palestinians and Iran.

This game has been going on for five years now, with Iranians paying
off the Palestinians like a man might give money and presents to a
mistress who treats him with contempt, but she still takes the money.

But this meeting between Rajavi and Abbas may have been a step too
far, and may even cause a permanent split between the PA and Iran.
This has to come sooner or later, because there's going to be a war
between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and when the Sunni Palestinians are
forced to choose between the two, the Palestinians will be on the side
of Saudi Arabia.

It seems that every few days I get a fresh opportunity to point this
out: Years ago I wrote, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis,
that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan,
and the Sunni Muslim countries will be one side, and India, Iran, the
United States and the West will be on the other side. This meeting
between Rajavi and Abbas, and the furious reaction from Iran, is yet
another event that moves the world along the predicted trend line.
Iran News Update (anti-Iran) and Mehr News (Tehran) and Jerusalem Post

****
**** Maryam Rajavi: Leader of the Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK or MKO)
****

Much of Iran's fury at Maryam Rajavi is that she and her husband
Massoud are long-time leaders of the terrorist organization
Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK or MKO).

MKO was formed in the 1960s in opposition to the government of the
Shah of Iran, who was America's ally. MEK was extremely violent, with
an ideology that mixed Islamism and Marxism. It conducted numerous
terrorist murders of both Iranian government officials and American
officials and military in Iran.

MEK supported Iran's Great Islamic Revolution in 1979, helping to
replace the Shah with the government of Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini.
However, MEK leaders quickly discovered that the Khomeini was actually
worse than the Shah's government. In 1981, MEK launched a bombing
campaign that killed Iran's president and prime minister. Then, its
leadership fled to Europe.

The MEK sided with Iraq in the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, and helped
Saddam Hussein defeat the Kurds as well as the Iranians. Saddam
set up an enclave of Iranian MEK supporters in refugee camps
in Iraq.

The US in the 1990s declared the MEK to be a terrorist organization,
and after the US won the Iraq war in 2003, the US army disarmed the
MEK enclaves, and disbursed many of the refugees to Europe. The MEK
has become weaker, as its membership has diminished, and in 2012 the
US State Dept. removed the MEK from its list of terrorist
organizations.

Iran has frequently attacked the MEK refugee camps in Iraq with
missiles, and still consider the MEK, and its leaders Massoud and
Maryam Rajavi, to be terrorists. Global Security and Tehran Times

****
**** Negative interest rates creating increased anxiety
****


Global sovereign bond yields have plummeted precipitously since November 2015 (Bloomberg)

If you pay attention to the Pollyannaish mainstream financial media,
then you constantly get the picture that the economy is wonderful, and
investments will only keep growing. For example, even when the
financial crisis occurred in 2007-2010, and millions of people lost
their jobs, went bankrupt and lost their homes, the message was always
the same that all losses were in the past.

What's surprising these days is that the mainstream financial media
are increasingly airing opinions that something is seriously wrong,
and that there is a possible financial crisis in the offing. That has
been particularly true since the end of 2015, when global sovereign
bond yields started dropping like a stone.

Translation: Every country funds its treasury in several ways, and one
way is to borrow money from investors by issuing "sovereign bonds."
In "normal" times, investors can typically earn 2-10% interest (yield)
per year on these bonds, depending on the country and the length of
time before the bond will be redeemed. These sovereign bonds are
considered to be the gold standard of risk-free investments, since
it's believed and expected that every country will honor its
obligations and redeem the bonds when they expire, paying their face
value, plus the money earned as interest. However, with the recent
arrival of negative yields, the country will pay the investor LESS
money than the invested in the first place. So, for example, you pay
$1,000 for one of these bonds that expires in two years, and two years
later the country redeems it for just $990, and you've paid $10 in
negative yield.

The chart above shows that sovereign bond yields have been crashing
since November of last year. This is becoming increasingly alarming
to many investors.

Sovereign bonds are supposed to be the safest investments in the
world, but according to Bill Gross, one of the best known investors in
the world, sovereign bonds are now too risky:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Sovereign bond yields at record lows aren’t worth the
> risk and are therefore not top of my shopping list right now; it’s
> too risky. Low yields mean bonds are especially vulnerable
> because a small increase can bring a large decline in
> price."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This was supported by a release from Fitch Ratings:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"This year's dramatic fall in yields on bonds issued
> by investment grade sovereigns has again raised the risk that a
> sudden interest rate rise could impose large market losses on
> fixed-income investors around the world, Fitch Ratings says. A
> hypothetical rapid reversion of rates to 2011 levels for $37.7
> trillion worth of investment-grade sovereign bonds could drive
> market losses of as much as $3.8 trillion, according to our
> analysis."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Most people look at the stock market, and think that everything is
rosy, but there's a lot going on that isn't reflected in the stock
market. In 2007, it was the collapse of the real estate bubble and,
more importantly, the disastrous collapse of collateralized debt
obligations (CDOs) backed by subprime mortgages. The disaster had
already occurred before the stock market started falling.

Bloomberg columnist Lisa Abramowicz on TV on Wednesday commented on
the warnings from Bill Gross and Fitch (my transcription):

> [indent]<QUOTE>"There's a high level of concern about how sustainable
> all of this is - when profits are declining, when you have growth
> slowing, when you have stimulus efforts that are not working and
> that are running out of steam -- how long can this last? But at
> the same time, it's very hard to see what could reverse it. The
> only thing that people possibly can point to is inflation, or if
> some country decides not to pay back their debt, or just forgive
> it, or come up with some kind of engineering that creates a
> technical problem."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

As I've been writing for years, inflation or hyperinflation is not
going to happen because the velocity of money keeps plummeting.
( "11-Mar-16 World View -- In desperation move, European Central Bank further lowers negative interest rates"
)

According to Abramowitz's contacts, the only thing that can stop the
current plunge in bond yields is for some country to decide not to pay
back their debt -- essentially to declare sovereign bankruptcy. In
other words, there's a major financial crisis coming no matter what.
Bloomberg and Fitch Ratings


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas,
Maryam Rajavi, National Council of Resistance to Iran, NCRI,
Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Mkhaimar Abusada, Hamas, Gaza,
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Iraq, Saddam Hussein,
Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization, MEK, MKO, Massoud Rajavi,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini,
Bill Gross, Fitch Ratings, Lisa Abramowicz

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

(08-02-2016, 10:15 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > There is one country that has high debt, and is currently in
> "flipping off the world" mode - China. So, China it will be,
> telling her creditors "I dare you to come and get me!"

Yes, China is extremely unstable and dangerous today, and becoming
more dangerous every day.