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**John J. Xenakis** · 04-13-2021, 06:39 PM

** 13-Apr-2021 World View: US and Russia appear headed for confrontation over Ukraine

[Image: ukraine-crimea-russia-map-517795855.jpg]

Map of Ukraine (CBS News)

As we discussed a couple of weeks ago, Russian analyst Pavel
Felgenhauer said that the fields of Ukraine and Russia are currently
muddy because of melting snow, but by early May the fields will dry
out, and there's a lot of talk about war in the beginning of May.

Well, May is closer, and a number of actions seem to indicate that a
military confrontation is close. Whether these actions are real war
preparations or just "saber-rattling" for purposes of intimidation is
not yet known. Here are some of the actions:

Russia has been massing soldiers and equipment on the eastern
Ukraine border and into Crimea. Some reports say that the Russians
have also been moving Iskander short-range missiles.
Russia accused NATO of "threatening" actions, and by sending
troops to its western borders to conduct exercises.
Both the US and Russia are reportedly deploying warships in the
Black Sea, even though Russia warned the United States on Tuesday
against sending warships to the Black Sea, urging American forces to
stay away from the annexed Crimean peninsula "for their own
good."
In a phone call between Biden and Putin on Tuesday, Biden
reportedly demanded that Russia de-escalate.

According to one analyst, the Russian massing of soldiers on the
Ukraine border is so ostentatious that it means that Russia is only
wants to intimidate Ukraine, not invade at the present time. However,
Putin may be using it as a cover for a lesser objective, such as to
infiltrate more Russian soldiers and military equipment into eastern
Ukraine and Crimea.

---- Sources:

-- Moscow will be ready for a war against Ukraine ‘in a month,’
Felgenhauer says
http://euromaidanpress.com/2021/04/04/mo...auer-says/
(EuromaidenPress, Ukraine, 4-Apr-2021)

-- Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589
(BBC, 13-Apr-2021)

-- Russia warns U.S. to stay away for its "own good" as Ukraine
standoff intensifies
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukra...black-sea/
(CBS News, 13-Apr-2021)

-- Rumours of War: Another Russian Surprise in Ukraine?
https://icds.ee/en/rumours-of-war-anothe...n-ukraine/
(ICDS, Estonia, 30-Mar-2021)

**John J. Xenakis** · 04-14-2021, 10:17 PM

*** 15-Apr-21 World View -- High farce and tragedy continue in Afghanistan, as Biden announces Sept 11 troop withdrawal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

High farce and tragedy continue in Afghanistan, as Biden announces Sept 11 troop withdrawal
CNN: Biden guided by 'magical thinking' in Afghanistan
Generational Dynamics analysis of the war in Afghanistan

****
**** High farce and tragedy continue in Afghanistan, as Biden announces Sept 11 troop withdrawal
****

[Image: g210414b.jpg]

Girls in Afghanistan will no longer be in school if the US withdraws and the Taliban takes over (NY Times)

President Joe Biden announced on Wednesday that all American troops
would be withdrawn by September 11 of this year, the 20th anniversary
of the 9/11/2001 attacks, and that Nato troops would be withdrawn at
the same time. This would be farcical if it weren't so tragic.

How many times have we been here? The President announces a new
policy -- "surge" into Afghanistan, a "victory" in Afghanistan, or a
"peace with honor" in Afghanistan. I write an article explaining why
all of those are impossible, based on a Generational Dynamics
summarized later in this article. The new policy fails, exactly as I
predicted. But nobody every learns.

So last year, Donald Trump made a farcical agreement with the Taliban
that if the changed their behavior, then the US would withdraw its
troops by May 1 of this year. Trump's reason was that Americans are
tired of "endless wars." (A bit of irony: Biden's announcement was
described by the fawning mainstream media as "historic," but Trump's
similar announcement was not.)

So now Joe Biden is president, and he made a farcical announcement
that the troops will be removed by September 11 of this year -- the
20th anniversary of the 9/11/2001 attack. I always accuse the Biden
administration of having no clue what's going on in the world, but
this takes the cake. We can expect the Taliban to engineer a major
terrorist attack on September 11 to celebrate their victory over the
Americans, having achieved their objective of forcing the Americans to
withdraw.

In his speech, Biden said:

<QUOTE>"I believed that our presence in Afghanistan should be
focused on the reason we went in the first place: to ensure
Afghanistan would not be used as a base from which to attack our
homeland again. We did that. We accomplished that objective.

I said, among — with others, we’d follow Osama bin Laden to the
gates of hell if need be. That’s exactly what we did, and we got
him. It took us close to 10 years to put President Obama’s
commitment to — into form. And that’s exactly what happened;
Osama bin Laden was gone.

That was 10 years ago. Think about that. We delivered justice to
bin Laden a decade ago, and we’ve stayed in Afghanistan for a
decade since. Since then, our reasons for remaining in
Afghanistan are becoming increasingly unclear, even as the
terrorist threat that we went to fight evolved."<END QUOTE>

So Biden's argument is that America went into Afghanistan to
defeat al-Qaeda, but now that al-Qaeda has been defeated, there's
no need for American troops to remain.

There was one difference between the terms of the Trump and Biden
announcements. Trump's May 1 deadline was "condition based," meaning
that if the Taliban didn't behave, then Trump might extend the
deadline. This was explained by Biden's press spokesman,
Jen Psaki:

<QUOTE>"[Question: And could his deadline extend, or could he
change his mind if you do see the situation in Afghanistan just
decline?]

Psaki: Well, I will say that the president made this decision
after close consultations and a close discussion and taking into
account all the difficult factors I should say around that
decision. So no, he remains committed to the timeline that he
intends to set out in his speech. ...

[Question: I don’t think I’ve heard in the answers so far, what
the Taliban is supposed to think about this. I mean, if I was
them, I think I’d want to take the summer off and wait until
September 11th. And why go ahead and negotiate an agreement that
would limit them if the U.S. is going to leave anyway?]

Jen Psaki: Well, first I would say that we have an expectation
that the Taliban is going to abide by their commitments and that
they are not going to allow Afghanistan to become a pariah
state. That’s our view. That’s also in their interest, in our
view. ...

And his view is that, when you talk about a conditions-based
withdrawal, it punts it down the road, “We will never leave. What
conditions would we be required to leave? By how long? What does
that mean? What’s the additional cost?” These are all the factors
in his mind."<END QUOTE>

First off, the "expectation that the Taliban is going to abide by
their commitments" is totally delusional.

This answer illustrates the conundrum that Biden and Psaki did not
unravel.

On the one hand, if the withdrawal date is unconditional, then the
Taliban will have every reason to continue terrorist acts. In fact,
the Taliban have announced that they won't attend an Afghanistan peace
conference being hosted by Turkey. Why should they?

On the other hand, if the withdrawal date is conditional then, as
Psaki says, the date will just be kicked down the road again.

So the question is this: Will Biden go ahead with the withdrawal as
announced, and hand the Taliban a victory? Or will he be forced to
reconsider the withdrawal decision?

****
**** CNN: Biden guided by 'magical thinking' in Afghanistan
****

A number of analysts have ridiculed Biden's withdrawal announcement
and the delusions behind it. One of them is Peter Bergen, the
National Security Analysts for CNN, the network that fawns over Biden
so much they've turned into a sewer. So Peter Bergen's analysis
cannot readily be rejected as the opinnion of a "white supremacist,"
or whatever CNN calls anyone who disagrees with them.

According to Bergen:

<QUOTE>"President Biden's decision to announce a date for
pulling all US troops out of Afghanistan by the 20th anniversary
of 9/11 sets the stage for a predictable disaster. ...

There has to be some magical thinking going on for the Biden White
House to expect that there will be a different outcome in
Afghanistan [than in the President Obama's precipitous withdrawal
from Iraq].

Yes, al Qaeda is a mere shadow of what it was on 9/11. That's
because for the past two decades, the US and its allies have
prevented Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for al Qaeda and
allied groups.

It's a policy that has worked.

Now, that sound policy is being abandoned. Once the US leaves
Afghanistan, America's NATO allies, who have 7,000 soldiers on the
ground, will leave as well, since they rely on an American
security umbrella. President Biden confirmed this in his speech to
the nation Wednesday afternoon.

The pullout of US and NATO troops will likely enable the Taliban
to take over much of the country."<END QUOTE>

Bergen explains that the Taliban have remained in close contact with
al-Qaeda, and they've guaranteed that they "would honor their
historical ties" with al-Qaeda. Furthermore, ISIS retains a foothold
in Afghanistan.

As Bergen pointed out, the US and Nato have prevented Afghanistan from
becoming a safe haven for al-Qaeda and allied groups. Once the allied
forces pull out, Afghanistan will once again become a safe haven for
both al-Qaeda and ISIS, just as Osama bin Laden used Afghanistan as a
safe haven to launch the original 9/11/2001 attacks.

It's not just Peter Bergen who is alarmed at the withdrawal decision.
The New York Times, who always fawningly slobber over Biden,
is worried for the girls of Afghanistan. According to the Times:

<QUOTE>"“I am so worried about my future. It seems so
murky. If the Taliban take over, I lose my identity,” said Wahida
Sadeqi, 17, an 11th grader at Pardis High School in Kabul. “It is
about my existence.” ...

For two decades, American leaders have pledged peace, prosperity,
democracy, the end of terrorism and rights for women. Few of those
promises have materialized in vast areas of Afghanistan, but now
even in the cities where real progress occurred, there is fear
that everything will be lost when the Americans leave. ...

Over two decades, the American mission evolved from hunting
terrorists to helping the government build the institutions of a
functioning government, dismantle the Taliban and empower
women. But the U.S. and Afghan militaries were never able to
effectively destroy the Taliban, allowing the insurgents to stage
a comeback. ...

Women would be most at risk under Taliban rule. When the group
controlled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, it banned women from
taking most jobs or receiving educations and practically made them
prisoners in their own homes."<END QUOTE>

Biden administration officials might be thinking to paraphrase Walter
Cronkite from 53 years ago, "If we've lost the NY Times, then we've
lost America."

The interesting thing about the NY Times article is that it
seems to reject the delusional Biden administration claim that
the Afghan democracy will continue. The article simply assumes
that the Taliban will take over, and will impose the same
dictatorial government they had in 2001, when they sponsored
Osama bin Laden's attack on America.

Analysts who favor continuing leaving a small number (3,500)
of American troops in Afghanistan point out that these can
prevent a resurgence of al-Qaeda and ISIS, and can also provide
a listening post and forward military base to counter
Chinese military activity in Central Asia.

****
**** Generational Dynamics analysis of the war in Afghanistan
****

I began writing about the impossibility of winning in Afghanistan
shortly after President Obama announced his plan to "surge" troops
into Afghanistan.

President Bush had used a successful "surge" counter-insurgency
strategy in Iraq in 2007, with the result that al-Qaeda was driven out
of Iraq, and the objectives were met. But al-Qaeda in Iraq were
mostly not Iraqis. They were jihadists that al-Qaeda leader Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi had imported from Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The Iraqis
themselves, even the Sunnis, mostly hated al-Qaeda, as I described in
a lengthy analysis, "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq,".

But the Taliban could be defeated in a similar way in Afghanistan,
because the Taliban are radicalized ethnic Pashtuns, and most of the
population of Afghanistan are Pashtuns.

In an article earlier this year, I was able to extend this original
analysis, based on research that I had done for my book, "Vietnam,
Buddhism and the Vietnam War." In that book, I compared the
counter-insurgency strategies used by British in the Boer War
(1899-1902) and the Malay Emergency (1948-55), and how they contrasted
to similar counter-insurgency strategies used by the Americans in
Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. (See "18-Jan-21 World View -- Chaos grows in Afghanistan as American troops leave in hope of delusional peace plan"
)

But the extended analysis is based on the same reasoning: In Iraq,
the civilians and jihadists looked different and spoke differently.
In Afghanistan, the civilians and jihadists were the same Pashtun
people.

Let's face it, most politicians and journalists are ignorant and dumb.
They have no knowledge of Afghanistan's last generational crisis war,
an extremely bloody, horrific civil war, in 1991-96, that defines
Afghan society today. The war was a civil war, fought between the
Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern Alliance of
Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The Taliban are
radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign fighters,
then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in Pakistan.

Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan
are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have
scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the
Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have
fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings,
dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side
performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they
have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill
each other.

So what is Biden going to do? If he goes ahead with the withdrawal,
then it's 100% certain that Afghanistan will collapse into chaos,
and it's likely that the Taliban will take control of the government,
and everything that America's sacrifices brought to Afghanistan
-- democracy, women's rights, relative peace -- will be lost
within a few months.

Sources:

Related Articles:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban,
CNN, Peter Bergen, Iraq, ISIS, al-Qaeda, Walter Cronkite,
Pashtuns, Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Northern Alliance,
Vietnam, Buddhism, Vietnam War

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

**John J. Xenakis** · 04-18-2021, 09:59 PM

*** 19-Apr-21 World View -- Britain sends warships to Black Sea amid Russia's military buildup around Ukraine

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Britain sends warships to Black Sea amid Russia's military buildup around Ukraine
Russia builds up its naval forces in Black Sea
Britain to send warships to Black Sea after US backs down
Russia continues military buildup on Ukraine's border
Major diplomatic row between Russia and Czech Republic

****
**** Britain sends warships to Black Sea amid Russia's military buildup around Ukraine
****

[Image: kerch2.gif]

Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov.

Britain is reported to be sending two warships to the Black Sea, as
Russia continues its military buildup on the Ukraine border, and a
naval buildup in the Black Sea. Britain's announcement came when the
US backed out of plans to send ships to the Black Sea after being
warned by Russia to stay out.

Russia appears to be taking the next step in a plan that began with
its invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014, following a military buildup
on the border of Ukraine similar to the military buildup going on at
the current time. The invasion took place after Vladimir Putin
promised not to invade Ukraine.

During the course of that invasion, Russians in eastern Ukraine in
July 2014 shot down a passenger plane, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17,
with a Russian Buk 9M38 missile. The Russians claimed that the US
shot down the plane to embarrass Putin. Russia lied about not
invading Crimea, and then invaded Crimea. Putin lied about not
annexing Crimea, and then annexed Crimea.

In May 2015, Russia began constructing an 11.8 mile bridge across the
Kerch Strait (see map above), said to be the longest bridge in Europe.

Russia used the bridge to strangle commerce into Ukraine's seaports of
Mariupol and Berdyansk, resulting in substantial economic damage to
Ukraine. In November 2018, Russia completed the bridge, and opened
live fire for no reason on three Ukrainian vessels, wounding six
sailors, boarding and seizing the vessels. The sailors were
transferred indefinitely to a jail in Moscow.

The point of reviewing this history is to set the framework for
Russia's latest actions, and to show that pretty much everything
Russia claims is garbage. The typical Russian playbook is to commit
some atrocity and then blame the United States or Nato, such as when
the Russians shot down the MH17 passenger plane.

In the current scene, Russian analysts are claiming that the military
buildup is because the United States wants Ukraine to join Nato,
and because Ukraine is planning to invade Russia. Over the years,
I've dealt with dozens of Russian trolls excusing Russia atrocities
with some of the most ridiculous excuses, and this is typical.

The problem is that we have absolutely no idea what the Russians
are planning.

The super-optimistic Pollyannaish view is that
Putin is just trying to send a message to the west, and has no
plans for military engagement.
A more cynical view is that Russia has no military plans,
but intends to use the invasion threat to blackmail Ukraine, Nato
and the West to gain some diplomatic advantage.
At the other end of the spectrum is the view that the Russians
plan a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, possibly extending as far as
Moldova and its pro-Russian breakaway Transnistria, which lies along
Ukraine's southwest border.
The intermediate view is that the Russians are planning to attack
and occupy the seaports at Mariupol and Berdyansk, and then continue
to move west in order to create a land bridge between Russia and
occupied Crimea, and take control of the entire Sea of Azov.

Whatever military action Russia is planning will probably take place
in early or mid-May, after the snows have melted and the fields have
dried and are able to hold tanks. We'll have to wait until then to
see which of these options Russia will pursue.

****
**** Russia builds up its naval forces in Black Sea
****

Coinciding with the huge build-up of over 100,000 Russian troops near
the border with Ukraine, Russia is bolstering its naval fleet in the
Black Sea.

Two Russian warships from Russia's Baltic fleet, accompanied by 15
smaller vessels, transited from the Mediterranean Sea through the
Bosphorus to the Black Sea on Saturday. The Bosphorus is the
waterway, controlled by Turkey, connecting the Mediterranean Sea with
the Black Sea.

This comes after Russia announced that Russia is sending 15 naval
vessels from its Caspian Sea Flotilla to the Black Sea. These vessels
must travel up the Volga River, through a canal built in 1952 with 13
locks, to the Don River, and then to the Sea of Azov and the Black
Sea.

So Russia's naval buildup is large and expensive, just like its
ground buildup.

****
**** Britain to send warships to Black Sea after US backs down
****

[Image: g210418b.jpg]

Map of Russian deployment around Ukraine (RFE/RL)

There are a number of news stories from multiple international sources
describing this situation, and they seem to boil down to the
following:

The US was planning to send two warships into the Black Sea, for a
long-scheduled routine mission. However, Russia warned the
United States on Tuesday (4/13) against sending the warships, "for
their own good." Russia's Deputy Foreign Ministry Sergei Ryabkov
was quoted by Russian news agencies as follows:

<QUOTE>"There is absolutely nothing for American ships to be
doing near our shores. We warn the United States that it will be
better for them to stay far away from Crimea and our Black Sea
coast. It will be for their own good."<END QUOTE>

Also on Tuesday, president Joe Biden phoned Russia's president
Vladimir Putin, after which the US backed down on the plans to send
warships to the Black Sea. US officials described the reason was to
avoid needlessly escalating the situation, and a desire not to provoke
Moscow during a delicate time.

However on Sunday, British media is reporting that a flotilla of ships
from the Royal Navy's carrier task group in the Mediterranean,
including a Type 45 destroyer armed with anti-aircraft missiles and an
anti-submarine Type 23 frigate, will travel to the Black Sea in May.
The deployment is aimed at showing solidarity with Ukraine and
Britain's NATO allies.

I heard one analyst make the following speculation about what
happened: Perhaps Biden fears a coordinated attack next month on
Ukraine by Russia simultaneously with a Chinese attack on Taiwan, and
so Biden did not want American warships to be trapped in the Black
Sea.

****
**** Russia continues military buildup on Ukraine's border
****

If major hostilities break out again in the Donbas (eastern Ukraine),
then the situation will have changed a lot since the last war in 2014,
since both Ukraine's and Russia's militaries are better prepared.

Ukraine has significantly boosted defense spending since 2014, has
U.S.-supplied Javelin anti-tank missiles in its arsenal, and has troop
numbers of nearly 250,000 compared to 168,000 in 2013.

In recent weeks, Russia has unexpectedly boosted its troop presence
near the conflict zone in Ukraine. Analysis of open-source material
has identified tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, long-range
artillery, rocket launchers, and Iskander short-range ballistic
missile systems among the materiel that has been moved to the area
since mid-March. U.S. and NATO officials have called it the largest
military buildup in the region since Russia’s surprise occupation of
Crimea and the start of fighting in the Donbas, which has killed more
than 13,000 combatants and civilians since April 2014.

So what are Russia's plans? We probably won't know until early to
mid-May.

****
**** Major diplomatic row between Russia and Czech Republic
****

This is a (probably) unrelated story, but it's being described as a
major diplomatic development between Russia and Europe.

The Czech Republic expelled 18 Russian diplomats on Saturday. On
Sunday, Russia retaliated by announcing that 20 diplomats from the
Czech Republic will be expelled. At the time of the explosion, it was
assumed to be an accident, but through detective work, Czech officials
now says that it was Russian sabotage.

Czech Police have identified two suspects in connection with the blast
- Alexander Mishkin and Anatoly Chepigov - who are also accused of
using the chemical nerve agent weapon Novichok to murder Sergei
Skripal, a former double Russian agent, and his daughter Yulia. The
murder took place in the UK in Salisbury in 2018.

Sources:

Related Sources:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, Donbas, Crimea,
Black Sea, Sea of Azov, Vladimir Putin, Kerch Strait,
Mariupol, Berdyansk, Moldova, Transnistria,
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17,
Turkey, Bosphorus, Baltic Fleet,
Caspian Sea, Volga River, Don River,
Sergei Ryabkov, Royal Navy,
Czech Republic, Alexander Mishkin, Anatoly Chepigov,
Novichok, Sergei Skripal, Yulia Skripal

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

**John J. Xenakis** · 04-22-2021, 02:37 PM

** 22-Apr-2021 World View: Russia says it's withdrawing troops from Ukraine border

[Image: kerch2.gif]

Russia is continuing to block the Kerch Strait, blocking
Ukraine's access to the Sea of Azov until October 31.

Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu announced on Thursday that the
100,000+ troops on the Ukraine border will begin returning to their
home bases from the Russian-Ukrainian border and Crimea on Friday.

It's possible that the announcement is a lie, and that there won't be
a withdrawal, since this is the kind of thing that Russia lies about
all the time. But assuming it's true, it means that the whole thing
was just a fun show, possibly for Vladimir Putin's domestic audience.

However, one thing hasn't changed: Russia is continuing to close the
Kerch Strait to naval traffic, until October 31, blocking Ukraine's
naval traffic to Mariupol and other east Ukraining ports.

** 19-Apr-21 World View -- Britain sends warships to Black Sea amid Russia's military buildup around Ukraine
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210419

-- Russia to Withdraw Troops From Ukraine Border, Crimea
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/2...mea-a73705
(Moscow Times, 22-Apr-2021)

**John J. Xenakis** · 04-24-2021, 08:49 PM

** 24-Apr-2021 World View: Violence grows between Palestinians and far-right Jews in East Jerusalem

The beginnings of this are not clear from the press reports, but
apparently this all began with the start of Ramadan on April 13.
Palestinians wanted to gather in the promenade around the walls to the
Old City to break the Ramadan fast at the end of each day. But
Israeli police had blocked off access, giving Covid restrictions as
the reason. The Palestinians claim that East Jerusalem is Palestinian
territory being illegally occupied by Israel.

There were several nights of sporadic violence until Thursday, but
then a TikTok video went viral, apparently showing an Israeli being
abused by an Arab. That's when the right-wing extremist Jewish
settler organization Lehavah held a large demonstration, chanting
"Death to Arabs" and carrying signs saying "Death to Terrorists."
Palestinians heard about this, and a crowd responded by throwing
firecrackers and setting garbage bins on fire.

Israeli police intervened to keep the two sides apart by blocking the
Damascus Gate. Since then, hundreds of Palestinians, Israelis, and
police have been wounded, with no reports of deaths.

This is the worst violence in years betwee Israeli police and
Palestinians in East Jerusalem.

The violence is spreading to other West Bank cities and the Israeli
Arab city Umm al-Fahm. It has also caused renewed clashes between
Israel's army and Hamas in Gaza, with an exchange of bombings and
rockets.

---- Sources:

-- Israel's Netanyahu calls for 'calm' in Jerusalem after violence
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/la...047cc88956
(AFP, 24-Apr-2021)

-- East Jerusalem / Police bolsters J'lem forces following unrest
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/r1FkB0ZDd
(YNet, 24-Apr-2021)

-- Umm al-Fahm / Hundreds Protest in Israeli Arab City Against
Far-right Violence in Jerusalem
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.pre...-1.9742870
(Haaretz, 24-Apr-2021)

-- US ‘deeply concerned’ over Jerusalem violence
https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/101...m-violence
(US News, 24-Apr-2021)

-- Violent clashes in Jerusalem after Israeli far-right march
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/23...-jerusalem
(Al-Jazeera, 23-Apr-2021)

-- Jerusalem Tension Triggers Gaza-Israel Fire Exchange
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articl...e-exchange
(AP, 24-Apr-2021)

**John J. Xenakis** · 04-29-2021, 08:50 AM

** 25-Apr-2021 World View: Death of Chad's president Idriss Déby Itno

I haven't been posting much for a few days because I've been working
on an article about the death of Chad's president Idriss Déby Itno
last week. He died in battle, personally leading his army in defense
of the capital from rebels.

Ordinarily the death of an African leader wouldn't generate much
interest in the West, but in this case Déby was the lynchpin of
France's entire counter-terrorism efforts in the African Sahel. His
death could signal the further rise of Boko Haram, al-Qaeda, and ISIS,
all of whom are active in the Sahel, and all of whom were being
challenged by France's Operation Barkhane, with Déby amd Chad's
military being the most important fighters. Now, Chad may become
unstable, and may even fall to the rebels that Déby was fighting, and
this could destabilize the whole region, and that would leave France's
counter-terrorism efforts in shambles.

[Image: 70024_SAHEL_1582826874221.png]

Map of Northern Africa, highlighting the Sahara Desert and Sahel Region

**John J. Xenakis** · 04-29-2021, 08:52 AM

** 26-Apr-2021 World View: Turkey and China

DaKardii Wrote:> Turkey is threatening to leave NATO and ally with China, Russia,
> and Iran over Biden’s Armenian Genocide statements.

> Alas, in the end Turkey will be allied with just China when the
> war begins.

> https://m.jpost.com/middle-east/turkeys-...sia-666263

We've had this discussion before, but though you may be right, I have
a great deal of difficulty accepting this conclusion. Turkey's
brothers and cousins, the Turkic people, are spread across Central
Asia, and the Uighurs and Kazakhs are being tortured, raped, beaten
and enslaved in China by the millions, in the most horrific war crimes
since the 1930s.

Erdogan wants to pretend this isn't happening, but the Turkish people
don't always agree. This was obvious earlier this month when the
Mayor of Ankara shut off the water supply to the Chinese embassy.

*** 11-Apr-2021 World View: China's Uighur problem
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=60229#p60229

There's no way that the Turkish people are simply going to side with
China against China's enemies, except in narrow circumstances.

Turkey is in a unique geographic location, at the crossroads of
Europe, Asia and the Middle East. If you think about it, Turkey is
going to be facing at least a three-front war:

Against China in Central Asia
Against Russia in Crimea and the Caucasus
Against Europe in the Balkans

And we still have to add Armenia, Syria's Alawites, and some old
Ottoman enemies.

So I can imagine all sorts of possible scenarios for Turkey. It might
be fighting one of those fronts, or all three either consecutively or
sequentially.

I heard an analyst on TV today say that China has established BRI
projects in 51 of 54 African countries, making each of these countries
a kind of "China lite," complete with arms, weapons and massively
expensive infrastructure projects.

A few months ago, I wrote about:

** 16-Dec-20 World View -- China's delusional geopolitical strategy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e201216

The summary is this: Guided by China's leadership, countries
throughout Africa, Asia and the Mideast will put aside their
disagreements. Old hatreds will be mended by necessity, to attract
capital for investments. These include countries like Iran, Saudi
Arabia, India, and Pakistan. China will create a "global colossal,"
of dozens of countries in a massive multi-country partnership, bound
together by China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). One nation after
another will make concession to "mend old hatreds," except that China
will not make a single concession.

According to the newsletter: "The big question is how America will
respond to the challenge of connecting so much of the world through
trade and peace. Their containment policy has failed so far. The
choice is either to join this more peaceful venture or to fight it.
If the latter choice is adopted it will result in a global war between
America and its remaining allies and the combined forces of China and
Russia."

This strategy assumes that Turkey and those 51 African nations will
all fall in line behind China. This is a joke, and is a particularly
delusional fantasy because China has pissed off everyone in the world
by infecting them with the Wuhan Coronavirus.

So will Turkey fight against the US alongside China? Anything is
possible, but I don't think so.

**John J. Xenakis** · 04-29-2021, 08:53 AM

** 28-Apr-2021 World View: Signposts Of The End

99% of analyses from mainstream economists are total garbage, as
proven by the fact that they almost always turn out wrong or, at best,
made no forecasts that are more accurate than the ones you can get by
flipping a coin.

In particular, I've been listening to an unbelievable cacophony of
nonsense about inflation. In the last couple of days I've heard
warnings of the coming round of super-inflation that would match the
1970s. Where do they get these so-called "experts," who are more
idiots than experts. People in the 1970s were survivors of the Great
Depression, so they can't be compared to people today, but mainstream
economists are too stupid to grasp that.

So it was interesting today to read an article of economic analysis
that actually made sense:

"Lulled Into Complacency" - Signposts Of The End Are Everywhere
Authored by Eric Hickman, president of Kessler Investment Advisors, Inc.,
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/lulled...everywhere

This article analyzes several economic trends back to 1900. It even
gets the Law of Reversion of the Mean right for P/E ratios, although
the text deftly avoids scaring people by mentioning that the long-term
average is 14, but you can see it right from their graph:

[Image: ba6eabab7dfb152210e144471ca8f854.png]

[Image: ba6eabab7dfb152210e144471ca8f854.png]

S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E Ratio) - 150.2 years,
1/31/1871 - 04/16/2021, monthly data points

This article goes far beyond P/E ratios to numerous other economic
analyses. It's not a full-scale generational analysis, but it's the
closest I've seen.

**John J. Xenakis** · 04-29-2021, 08:55 AM

** 28-Apr-2021 World View: Conclusions of the 'signposts' article

It's worthwhile to post the conclusions from the article linked in my
previous post:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/lulled...everywhere

But this time is different?

Stock market bulls suggest the stock market will continue rising
because the pandemic will soon be over (I’m not so sure) and developed
economy governments have put enough money into their economies to keep
their stock markets elevated (not sure about that either). Investors
have been lulled into complacency because the stock market has rallied
through every risk thrown its way for more than a decade. It is a
mistake to think this is normal or sustainable.

Some feature of COVID-19 will likely be the stock market’s undoing,
but it doesn’t have to be. Possible candidates include an emerging
market sovereign fiscal crisis, a large hedge-fund/bank blow-up,
fraud, social unrest, or a geopolitical crisis. There is also the
possibility that an inflection point won’t have an identifiable
catalyst, but could happen just from a collective realization that
asset prices reflect optimism extrapolated further into the future
than is realistic. I don’t know when or how, but sentiment will
change; the boom and bust process is as old as civilization.

When it happens, nobody is big enough to stop it coming down. Fiscal
and monetary stimulus is this cycle’s “false idol.” Every cycle has
one – a reason why it can’t come down. Right before the stock market
crash of 1929, Yale economist Irving Fisher said stock prices were in
“what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Portfolio insurance was
the culprit in 1987. In 2000, it was said that the internet was a “new
paradigm” obviating historical comparisons. Before the 2007-2008 stock
market crash, Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said
the housing market was too varied geographically to come down at
once. Ben Bernanke, the subsequent chairman of the Federal Reserve,
infamously said that he thought losses to subprime mortgage loans were
“contained.” All of them were wrong.

**John J. Xenakis** · 04-29-2021, 08:57 AM

** 28-Apr-2021 World View: Turkey's core national national identity

DaKardii Wrote:> If Generational Dynamics is correct, then it is 100% certain that
> Turkey will be siding with China in the upcoming war.

> The Turks have a near-genocidal hatred for the Armenians, as well
> as the Kurds. Both the Armenians and the Kurds are Russian
> allies. Meanwhile, Turkey is in a crisis era. This means that it
> won't be on the same side as Armenia, the Kurds, or Russia. And we
> already know that (again, assuming GD is correct) Russia will be
> siding with the US, because Russia is allied with India and India
> will be fighting China. At that point, the only possible outcome
> is that Turkey sides with China.

> This will happen despite China's genocidal policies towards
> the Uighurs and the Kazakhs. Sure, the Turks consider the genocide
> in Xinjiang to be a sensitive issue. But they won't be in any
> position to challenge China's ambitions in Central Asia once they
> end up in a crisis war against Russia. Instead they will have to
> focus on defeating Russia and its allies, while hoping that they
> get a piece of Central Asia as a "reward" for allying with
> China.

This is certainly convoluted logic. There is no principle in
Genertional Dynamics that supports the logic that "It's a crisis era,
and Turkey won't side with Russia, therefore the only possible outcome
is that Turkey sides with China." There are many other possible
outcomes that you haven't considered, including a civil war within
Turkey itself.

You have to look at Turkey's history. Most countries will be
re-fighting World War II, but Turkey will be re-fighting World War I
and the Crimean War. That's why I suggested several possibilities,
such as war in Central Asia, the Caucasus, Crimea, and the Balkans, or
a war with old Ottoman enemies in the Mideast.

The Turkish people came from Central Asia, just as Americans came from
England. The Turkish people could never turn away from the Central
Asians, any more than Americans could turn away from the British. So
the Turks will never side with China against the Uighurs and Kazakhs.
It's much more than a "sensitive issue." It's the core of their
national identity. That stuff about hoping to "get a piece of Central
Asia" as a reward for siding with China is utter nonsense.

As for recognizing the Armenian genocide, that will generate domestic
turmoil, but it will be forgotten soon and won't have any effect on
the core issues for Turkey. The Turkish people have no core national
interests in a war with Western Europe or America.

Tim Randal Walker · 04-30-2021, 08:45 AM

Please correct me if I got this wrong....

Hasn't China alienated a number of countries with its rapacious policies? Trapping countries with debt...neo-imperialism as devised by loan sharks.

**John J. Xenakis** · 05-02-2021, 09:37 PM

** 29-Apr-2021 World View: Jerome Powell and Judas: Damned for all time

Higgenbotham Wrote:> Why $120 billion a month, why not less?

> "But if we bought less? No, no. I think the effect is proportional
> to the amount we buy."

> Why $120 billion a month, why not more?

I actually feel sorry for Jerome Powell. He knows that we're on the
edge of a cliff, and he knows that anything he does could be blamed as
the cause of going over the cliff. Powell wants to do the right
thing, but no matter what he does, he's afraid of being "damned for
all time."

I'm a great believer in the concepts of "calling" or "karma" or
"obsession". People (including myself) are driven to do what they
have to do, even when they know that what they're going to do will
lead to disaster. That's a big part of the Greek concept of tragedy.

Have you ever seen the 1960s Broadway musical Jesus Christ Superstar?
In many ways, that play is the story of Judas, and his obsession that
forces him to betray Jesus for 30 pieces of silver. Here's what he
sings just before the betrayal:

Quote:> Now if I help you, it matters that you see
> These sordid kinda things are coming hard to me.
> It's taken me some time to work out what to do.
> I weighed the whole thing out before I came to you.
> I have no thought at all about my own reward.
> I really didn't come here of my own accord.
> Just don't say I'm ...
> Damned for all time.
>
> I came because I had to; I'm the one who saw.
> Jesus can't control it like he did before.
> And furthermore I know that Jesus thinks so too.
> Jesus wouldn't mind that I was here with you.
> I have no thought at all about my own reward.
> I really didn't come here of my own accord.
> Just don't say I'm ...
> Damned for all time.
>
> Annas, you're a friend, a worldly man and wise.
> Caiaphas, my friend, I know you sympathise.
> Why are we the prophets? Why are we the ones
> Who see the sad solution - know what must be done?
> I have no thought at all about my own reward.
> I really didn't come here of my own accord.
> Just don't say I'm
> Damned for all time.

So I feel sorry for Powell, because he must feel the same way: "I have
no thought at all about my own reward. I really didn't come here of
my own accord. Just don't say I'm ... Damned for all time."

After betraying Jesus, Judas gives the 30 pieces of silver to the
temple, and then kills himself.

Quote:> Christ, I know you can't hear me,
> But I only did what you wanted me too.
> Christ, I'd sell out the nation,
> For I have been saddled with the murder of you.
> I have been spattered with innocent blood.
> I shall be dragged through the slime and the mud.
> I have been spattered with innocent blood.
> I shall be dragged through the slime and the mud! ...

> When he's cold and dead will he let me be?
> Does he love me too? Does he care for me?

> Oh, Oh!
> My mind is in darkness now.
> My God, I am sick. I've been used,
> And you knew all the time.
> God, I'll never ever ever know why you chose me for your crime.
> Your foul bloody crime.
> God, You have murdered me! You have murdered me, murdered me!
> You have murdered me murdered me murdered me murdered me!

**John J. Xenakis** · 05-02-2021, 09:41 PM

** 02-May-2021 World View: Democrats' rape, violence and enslavement culture.

spottybrowncow Wrote:> The issue is, how long should you go on following a set of rules
> that the other side ignores? I'm not sure I have the answer, but
> that's the real question.

DaKardii Wrote:> I'm an absolutist when it comes to belief in rule of law. I'm
> opposed to selective enforcement in all cases, be it when
> it benefits the left or when it benefits the right.

> That's why I've come to despise both the left and the right. BOTH
> of them believe in selective enforcement, and that the solution to
> selective enforcement that doesn't benefit them is MORE selective
> enforcement.

I don't know what "selective enforcement" you're referring to on the
right, but there's massive criminality on the left that's being
supported and encouraged by the Democrats, the mainstream media and
big tech that's not being enforced at all.

The Democrats use phony charges of rape all the time, but they approve
of and support rape by white Democrats like Bill Clinton.

Rape is a big part of the Democrat party culture. The KKK actively
raped black girls for decades. Joe Biden himself may have raped some
black girls when he was young. If not, then he was certainly aware
that others, like Grand Kleagle Robert Byrd, who were doing do.

Maxine Waters, who is totally unhinged, must have been deeply
traumatized by something, and she was quite likely raped by a White
Democrat as a girl. If not, then probably her girlfriends were raped.
At the least, she would have known many black girls who had been raped
by White Democrats in previous years.

Today, the Democrats are supporting as much rape as possible on the
southern border. The Democrats see massive rape as an opportunity to
raise a new generation of Democrat voters. As much rape as possible
is Democrat party policy.

So when you claim to be an "absolutist" about the rule of law, you
might start with the support of rape among Democrats.

There's a reason why Democrats don't care about the enslavement, rape
and torture of Uighurs in China. That's because they're still furious
that they lost the Civil War and that the Republicans freed the
slaves, and the Democrats would like to refight the civil war and
re-enslave the blacks. The Democrats are envious of the CCP because
the CCP are being successful at enslavement, and they'd like to do the
same. For example, the CCP's so-called "re-education centers" for
indoctrination are being replicated in America by using the
super-powerful and wealthy Teachers Unions to enforce the
indoctrination of "critical race theory" in the schools which is an
extremely evil development. The Democrats learned this from the CCP.

The Democrats are doing everything possible to encourage violence
among blacks. There is massive street violence among blacks that
Democrats never even mention. However, the Democrats adopt every
possible policy to destroy the black family, with the result that
young black males see that they have no chance of a normal family
life, and they turn to violence. This is an intended consequence by
the Democrats, who want as many blacks to kill each other as possible.

- The Democrats are doing everything possible to defund the police, so
that more blacks will kill each other.

- The Democrats in California are letting tens of thousands of violent
criminals, mostly black, out of jail, in order to increase the murder
of blacks in California.

- The Democrats want to end "cash bail," so that violent criminals,
mostly black, will be freed from jail immediatey upon arrest, if an
arrest occurs at all, and they'll be free to kill other blacks.

- The Democrats are purposely enabling and supporting the Mexican
cartels to bring massive amounts of meth and fentynal into the
country, expecting it to reach black neighborhoods, where the black
family will be further destroyed and there will be more violence of
blacks killing blacks.

- The Democrats are encouraging as much violence as possible by
antifa-blm fascists to burn down cities, particularly targeting
blacks, so that more blacks will be impoverished, and there will be
more violence between blacks, which is what the Democrats want.

White Democrats regularly beat, tortured, lynched and raped blacks
when Joe Biden was a boy. He may or may not have taken part in such
activities himself, but he was certainly aware of them by other White
Democrats, such as by his idolized mentor, Grand Kleagle Robert Byrd.

In 1977, Joe Biden was opposed to desegrating schools. He wanted
blacks in black schools and whites in white schools. He was opposed
to school busing and said: "Unless we do something about this, my
children are going to grow up in a jungle, the jungle being a racial
jungle with tensions having built so high that it is going to explode
at some point. We have got to make some move on this."

So the massive slaughter of blacks in the streets today is the active
policy of the Democrats. It keeps the blacks in their place -- i.e.,
in their own black neighborhoods, where they won't bother the children
of White Democrats. And if all goes well, the White Democrats will
achieve their erotic dream, try to re-fight the civil war and
re-enslave the blacks and free rape of black girls, and they're
watching the CCP do it to the Uighurs for instruction.

So I don't know who Fuentes is either, but I gather you're criticizing
him for saying something you didn't like, but you're saying nothing
about the massive rape and violence and enslavement culture of the
Democrat party. So that's the reason that others are criticizing you
and people like you. You claim to be "absolutist" about law
enforcement, but never about the Democrats' massive rape and violence
and enslavement culture. For your own credibility, you should start
there.

**John J. Xenakis** · 05-02-2021, 09:42 PM

** 02-May-2021 World View: China and Taiwan

Guest Wrote:> The Chinese bank on the West not resisting, or being willing to
> fight. Can you imagine Biden giving the order? I can't.

Guest Wrote:> And the world will be silent whilst China destroys Taiwan and,
> after that ...

I believe that if China attacks Taiwan, then the US will
retaliate, and that will lead to WW III.

China anticipates the same thing. That's why an attack on Taiwan is
likely to be coupled with an attack on American assets, to prevent or
slow down retaliation.

**John J. Xenakis** · 05-02-2021, 09:44 PM

** 02-May-2021 World View: China has no friends

(04-30-2021, 08:45 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > Please correct me if I got this wrong....

> Hasn't China alienated a number of countries with its rapacious
> policies? Trapping countries with debt...neo-imperialism as
> devised by loan sharks.

Yes, you're absolutely right. According to some of the Asian guests
in the GD forum, China has no friends at all in Asia. Even Pakistan,
China's all-weather friend, dearer than eyesight, is having some
disagreements with China accusing Pakistan of harboring Uighur
"terrorists." And pretty much everybody in the world is super-pissed
off at China for infecting 180 countries with the Wuhan coronavirus,
while protecting itself.

**John J. Xenakis** · 05-02-2021, 09:46 PM

*** 3-May-21 World View -- US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Violence on Tajikistan - Kyrgyzstan border worst in 20 years
Taliban and Afghan forces clash as US begins withdrawal
US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability

****
**** Violence on Tajikistan - Kyrgyzstan border worst in 20 years
****

[Image: g210502b.jpg]

Ironically, some crockery survives an enormous blast that reduced homes to rubble near the Tajikistan - Kyrgyzstan border (BBC)

For years since the end of the bloody Tajikistan civil war (1992-97),
there have been border disputes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, but
they've all been isolated incidents. But in the last few weeks, the
Tajik army has been mobilizing along a long section of the border, for
the first time. The border is 971 kilometers long, of which 471 km
are disputed.

At least 31 people have been killed, and over 10,000 people have been
evacuated from their homes due to the worst violence in decades
between Kyrgyz and Tajik army forces. Entire villages on both sides
have been burned down. On Sunday, the two governments agreed to a
ceasefire, but it's not clear that the people on the ground agree.

Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan belong to Russia's Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO), and Russia has military bases in both
countries, so Russia would like to see the conflict settled
peacefully.

The borders between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were set up in the 1920s
by Josef Stalin, making them part of the Soviet Union. Stalin had no
concern for ethnic, demographic, and tribal considerations when he set
up those boundaries. He was only interested in commericial benefits.
And the boundaries didn't matter, since both countries were part of
the Soviet Union. But when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991,
suddenly the boundaries mattered.

The boundaries were never clearly defined, and there have been calls
over the years to officially mark the boundaries. Of course, this
would bring any border disagreements into sharp focus, so this project
hasn't been pursued. But recently, the government of Kyrgyzstan
announced that it would like to complete border demarcations between
the countries, and to build a reservoir along the river that supplies
water to both countries. These announcements caused the Tajiks
to panic, and led to the current border clashes.

****
**** Taliban and Afghan forces clash as US begins withdrawal
****

The US and Nato began withdrawal of all forces from Afghanistan on May
1, with the withdrawal to be completed on September 11, on the 20th
anniversary of the Sept 11, 2001, attacks. The Taliban had promised
to coexist peacefully with the Afghan government provided that the US
withdrawal was fully completed by May 1, as agreed with the Donald
Trump administration early last year. But the Taliban now say that
the US has violated the agreement, so they're free to attack anyone
they want. Joe Biden has said that the the September 11 completion
date for the withdrawal is absolute, not conditions based, so the
Taliban know that they can just go ahead and attack.

On Friday, 30 people were killed when a car bomb exploded near a guest
house where high school students were staying, in preparation for
university entrance exams. Dozens of people were hurt. Witnesses
described roofs collapsing and victims being trapped under the debris.

In the last two days alone, there have been dozens of new
casualties, from clashes between Afghan forces and the Taliban.
Once the Americans leave, there will be nothing preventing the
clashes from escalating.

Reports indicate that the people of Kabul are feeling increasingly
anxious, particularly about girls' education, which the Taliban have
promised to abolish. Friday's car bombing may have been designed to
target girls' education.

****
**** US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability
****

The withdrawal of US and Nato troops from Afghanistan threatens more
than just the stability of Afghanistan. It threatens new kinds of
instability in the entire Central Asia region. The countries in the
region are concerned that the American withdrawal from Afghanistan
will create the same regional instability that the American withdrawal
from Iraq did in 2010.

The heads of the countries in Russia's Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) have been meeting to discuss this precise concern.
In fact, villagers in Tajikistan, along the Afghanistan border, are
being told to be prepared "to take up arms," in the words of a
provincial governor:

<QUOTE>"In coordination with the police and intelligence
departments, we've registered all hunters who live in the border
areas. They will have to take up arms to defend our country. In
fact, all of us will have to take up weapons if the situation
dictates."<END QUOTE>

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is not
surprising at all. Both Afghanistan (1991-96) and Tajikistan
(1992-97) had extremely bloody ethnic civil wars during the 1990s.

In Afghanistan, the war was between the Pashtuns in the south versus
the Northern Alliance in the north, consisting of Tajiks, Hazaras and
Uzbeks. These opposing groups have fresh memories of the atrocities,
torture, rape, beatings, dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth
that the other side performed on their friends, wives and other family
members, so they will be looking for revenge.

It's been over 20 years since those civil wars ended, so the region is
in a generational Awakening era, with new nationalistic generations
having grown up since then, and having little fear of a new civil war.
It's way too early for a major new war, but as typically happens,
there will be periods of bloodshed separated by periods of ceasefire,
with each bloodshed period worse than the previous one.

Furthermore, new terrorist groups with allegiance to al-Qaeda
or ISIS have been springing up in Afghanistan, but have been
kept under control with the help of American forces. These groups
will be encouraged to grow again, with the departure of the Americans.

In 2009, I told readers to make a mental note of the Fergana Valley
(or Ferghana Valley), in central Asia, because it was going to become
increasingly important in world affairs. The Fergana Valley sits at
the intersection of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, and is a
hotbed of terrorist activity by al-Qaeda. ( "Islamist Uzbeks lead terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan (2-Nov-2009)"
)

The American withdrawal from Afghanistan will encourage these clashes.
That may be why there have been reports that the Biden administration
has been talking to the government of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to
reposition the US forces leaving Afghanistan in abandoned American
military bases in those two countries. American forces had occupied
those bases between 2001 and 2014, before the host countries demanded
that the Americans leave.

Little is known publicly about these negotiations, but it would be
ironic if the withdrawal of American forces from the "forever war" in
Afghanistan led to American forces becoming involved a "forever war"
in Central Asia and the Fergana Valley.

Sources:

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