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Generational Dynamics World View
** 09-Mar-2021 World View: Ye shall not know the date

aeden Wrote:> https://www.zerohedge.com/political/why-...ied-elites

> Read this twice. They will spill out like an infection on
> themselves and go from there with utter impunity. I can give you
> a exact date and it will profit you nothing.

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Oh yes it will. Better yet, it'll profit the resident guru JX the
> most.

Actually, the opposite is true.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a stock market panic
is a chaotic event, and the date cannot be predicted. If Aeden could
correctly predict the date, not simply by chance but according to some
reproducible algorithm, then it would indicate that Generational
Dynamics is wrong in that regard, so I would not "profit."
Reply
** 10-Mar-2021 World View: Myanmar / Burma violence - no end in sight

[Image: 40256130-9342863-image-a-114_1615305921726.jpg]
  • This scene is actually a training exercise for protesters.
    The protesters hurl bottles at a line of activists posing as riot
    police to help their colleagues prepare for street battles (Daily Mail)


I heard a couple of tv analysts say that the protests in Myanmar /
Burma can't continue much longer, because the police/army violence
against the protesters is growing, and soon the protesters will have
to give up.

One of them said explicitly: "We know from history the protesters will
back down, because that's what happened in the 2007 protests after the
violence against protesters became too great."

This is a typical mistake that journalists, analysts and politicians
make all the time. In 2007, Burma was in a generational Unraveling
era, at a time when there were still plenty of people running things
who were survivors of the last generational crisis war (1948-1958),
and so there was a mood of compromise on all sides. But today, the
country is in a generational Crisis era, with all of those survivors
now retired or dead, and there's no mood of compromise among the
younger generations.

So the 2007 historical analogy is irrelevant. In fact, it may
motivate in the opposite direction, if today's protesters have the
view that the 2007 protesters gave up before they had to.

The harsh military crackdown is continuing and escalating. Police are
smashing open the doors of apartments of suspected protesters and
arresting them in the middle of the night. The police are freely
using tear gas and live ammunition, and thousands of people have
arrested.

It's thought that the protests have been only partially affected.
One reporter said that instead of hundreds of thousands of protesters
at some rallies, he's seeing "only" tens of thousands.

An interesting development is that protesters are practicing drills
and training each other to face the police. This suggests that the
protests, which formerly have been entirely organic, are now becoming
more organized.

There are an increasing number of workers in the "civil disobedience
movement," an alliance of nine trade unions in Myanmar in a general
strike Monday. The most publicized case is the strike by railway
workers. On Wednesday, security forces raided a Yangon neighborhood
where railway workers live in government-provided housing. The
workers were forced at gunpoint to go back to work.

There have been only a few defections from the army. Myanmar's
ambassadors to the UN and UK have switched sides and begged the
international community to do something. A few hundred policemen have
fled across the border into India, because they didn't want to kill
their fellow citizens.

But those defections have been rare. Both sides -- the army and the
protesters -- have been digging in and hardening their positions.
There are no signs that this will end any time soon.

---- Sources:

-- Myanmar protesters hold 'rehearsals' as they prepare for more
street clashes with military with activists posing as riot police
as they are pelted with bottles
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...ttles.html
(DailyMail, 9-Mar-2021)

-- Myanmar Security Forces Target Striking Railroad Workers'
Neighborhood
https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacifi...ighborhood
(VOA, 10-Mar-2021)

-- Myanmar protesters defy curfew; media outlets ordered shut
https://www.miningjournal.net/news/inter...ered-shut/
(AP, 10-Mar-2021)

-- Myanmar's military junta pays $2 million to Canadian lobbying firm
to 'explain the real situation' as riot police carry out dawn raids
on railway workers and death toll in brutal crackdown rises to more
than 60
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...ation.html
(DailyMail, 10-Mar-2021)


---- Related articles:

** 6-Mar-21 World View -- Violence escalates dangerously in Myanmar / Burma
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210306



** 8-Feb-21 World View -- Violence feared in Myanmar/Burma as pro-democracy protests grow
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210208



** 2-Feb-21 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e210202
Reply
** 10-Mar-2021 World View: The Deflationary Tsunami

Tom Mazanec" Wrote:> Too Busy Frontrunning Inflation, Nobody Sees the Deflationary
> Tsunami

> https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar21/def...i3-21.html

Bubble psychology really is very strange to me. How could supposedly
intelligent people be so dumb and blind?

Starting in 2004, I watched the housing bubble with astonishment. It
was obvious to me that there was a housing bubble. It was obvious to
Alan Greenspan that there was a housing bubble, and I quoted him at
length, although the so-called financial "experts" pretended not to
understand him by claiming he used obscure language. I sold my condo
at the height of the housing bubble, and part of the reason I'm alive
today is the money that provided. In 2007, I was begging a couple of
friends not to buy homes because they were in a housing bubble, but
they did anyway and lost a lot of money. It was only in 2009 when I
heard an analyst on tv talk about the housing bubble -- in 2006.

As I've written before, I've been tracking inflation predictions since
2003, and so-called "experts" have been wrong about predicting
inflation constantly. But they're so stupid, they keep making the
same mistake over and over. Isn't that the definition of insanity?
Every quarter they predict massive inflation the next quarter.
They've been wrong about this for about 70 consecutive quarters since
I've been keeping track, and they keep making the same stupid mistake.
And they're doing it again today.

So the above deflation article by Charles Hugh Smith is the first that
I've seen that really gives a detailed explanation of why we're headed
for a deflationary crisis.

Here is my summary of the reasoning why we're headed for a
"deflationary tsunami," based on the reasoning in the article:
  • During the "roaring 1920s," the stock market kept going up,
    and the public mood was that the stock market would continue going up
    indefinitely, with the worst being an occasional dip. So ordinary
    people and investors kept buying stocks, knowing that their value
    would continue to increase.

  • But it's more than that. If investors "know" that stock values
    will increase forever, then they can borrow money to buy more stocks,
    knowing that they'll be able to repay the debts by selling the stocks.
    And by the time they sell the stocks, the stocks will be worth more,
    since the stock prices are always going up, so they can repay the
    debts, and have money left over.

  • So you have a bubbly cycle. Investors sell stocks to each other,
    pushing up the price of the stocks as they go back and forth between
    buyers and sellers. Investors borrow money from each other to
    purchase stocks, or use stocks as margin collateral, and go more and
    more deeply into debt with one another, as money goes back and forth
    between borrowers and lenders.

That's what happened during the roaring 1920s, until October 28, 1929.
Then something happened, and there was a panic. What changed? Why
did a panic occur on that date, rather a few months earlier or later?
I've speculated that it was because that date was seven weeks after
third quarter earnings were announced, and those seven weeks were
enough for investors to understand that stocks were not going to
continue going up. But nobody knows for sure.

Whatever the reason, the mood of the public changed, almost overnight.
It was no longer a sure thing that stocks would go up forever. This
meant that any investor who had borrowed a great deal of money,
"knowing" that he could pay off the debt by selling higher priced
stock, suddenly did not know that, but he still had debts to pay off.

It's not surprising that public mood can change overnight. For
example, we know today that something that nobody heard of a month ago
suddenly "goes viral" and becomes extremely popular with the public.

So what happened in October 1929, when the public mood suddenly
changed from "the stock market will go up forever" to "it won't."
Here's a summary:
  • On October 28-29, the market fell 25%. We know from reports
    at the time that this was caused by people forced to sell assets to
    meet margin calls. These would presumably be the people who had gone
    most deeply in debt, thinking that stocks would go up forever, and now
    were forced to sell their most liquid assets to meed debt
    payments.

  • On October 30-31, the market rose 18%. These were people "buying
    the dip," still believing that stocks would go up forever.

  • There were further ups and downs, but overall, the market fell 90%
    by July 1932.

What happened after that was described by John Kenneth Galbraith in
his book The Great Crash - 1929:

Quote: "In the autumn of 1929 the New York Stock Exchange,
under roughly its present constitution, was 112 years old. During
this lifetime it had seen some difficult days. On September 18,
1873, the firm of Jay Cooke and Company failed, and, as a more or
less direct result, so did fifty-seven other stock exchange firms
in the next few weeks. On October 23, 1907, call money rates
reached 125 percent in the panic of that year. On September 16,
1920 -- the autumn months are the off season in Wall Street -- a
bomb exploded in front of Morgan's next door, killing thirty
people and injuring a hundred more.

A common feature of all these earlier troubles [[previous panics]]
was that having happened they were over. The worst was reasonably
recognizable as such. The singular feature of the great crash of
1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day
like the end proved on the next day to have been only the
beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to
maximize the suffering, and also to insure that as few as possible
escaped the common misfortune.

The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin
call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met
that there would still be another. In the end all the money he
had was extracted from him and lost. The man with the smart
money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came,
naturally went back in to pick up bargains. ... The bargains then
suffered a ruinous fall. Even the man who waited out all of
October and all of November, who saw the volume of trading return
to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce
market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value
drop to a third or fourth of the purchase price in the next
twenty-four months. ... The ruthlessness of [the stock market was]
remarkable. ...

Monday, October 28, was the first day on which this process of
climax and anticlimax ad infinitum began to reveal itself.
It was another terrible day. Volume was huge, although below the
previous Thursday -- nine and a quarter million shares as compared
withnearly thirteen. But the losses were far more severe.
... Indeed the decline on this one day was greater than that of
all the preceding week of panic. Once again a late ticker left
everyone in ignorance of what was happening, save that it was bad.

On this day there was no recovery."

I've referred to this in the past as The Principle of Maximum Ruin --
the maximum number of people were ruined to the maximum extent
possible. Stock prices fell steadily until mid-1932, having fallen a
total of 90%, and only then began to grow again, not reaching their
1929 highs again until 1952.

It's worthwhile reading Galbraith's account carefully, because it
shows how the public mood was changing rapidly:
  • Before October, the rule was: go further into debt to buy more
    stocks.

  • After October, it was: Sell more stocks to pay off debts.

  • Before October: People wanted to buy stocks, which pushed stock
    prices up.

  • After October: People were forced to sell stocks, which pushed
    stock prices down.

So that's why the stock market crashes, but why does that cause a
"deflation tsunami"? Because people in debt have to sell off their
assets to pay off the debts, and that pushes down the prices of the
assets, causing deflation. The most liquid assets go first, such as
stocks and money market instruments. After that, less liquid assets
have to be sold -- things like jewelry, art, gems, real estate, cars
and trucks, and today that would include bitcoin.

So debt repayments require forced asset sales and result in deflation.
Between 1930 and 1933, prices fell 10% per year.

Today, we're still in the "pre October 1929" world. Personal,
business and government debt has been surging constantly for decades.
American public debt is around $27 trillion, and this week the
Democrats passed a Christmas tree stimulus bill that will add almost
$2 trillion more. And the Democrats are promising more.

These debt levels are insane, but they're even more insane because
they're backed by an insane theory, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT),
that says that the government can borrow as much as it wants and
never has to pay it back.

Today the public mood is not only that stock prices will go up
forever, but also that debts will never have to be paid back.
Astronomical, dysfunctional prices for Tesla stock or Bitcoin are
perversely considered proof that stock prices will always go up, and
that asset values will always go up.

This is exactly what people believed prior to October 1929. Then the
public mood changed. Nobody could have predicted it, just as nobody
can predict that a new hashtag "goes viral" today. It happens out of
thin air, and nobody can explain it. And at some point the public
mood is going to change to believe that stocks won't go up forever, or
that public debts will have to be repaid. That's when the
"deflationary tsunami" will occur.

As the article by Charles Hugh Smith says:

Quote: "Speculative bubbles pop. All phantom wealth vanishes
back into the air it emerged from. Insolvent borrowers counting on
ever lower rates of interest and ever higher valuations
default. Lenders who leveraged up to loan gobs of "free money" to
uncreditworthy borrowers will be destroyed by the monumental
write-offs of uncollectible debts based on phantom valuations.

Those looking up from their "free fish!" frolicking will see the
tsunami too late to save themselves. None of the frolickers will
be able to outrun the tsunami or avoid being crushed as it sweeps
all the debris of a speculative mania into the flooded ruins
beyond the shoreline."

This article by Charles Hugh Smith is the first of its kind that I've
seen. It's not entirely inconceivable that this article is the first
sign that the public mood is beginning to change. Once a panic
begins, it will be too late for anyone to save himself.
Reply
** 11-Mar-2021 World View: Math is racist

richard5za Wrote:> My experience is that most people struggle with math and math
> logic; I'm not including calculus in this comment but I mean less
> advanced e.g. advanced arithmetic.

> I have no idea what percentage of people have bought BTC, but its
> an intriguing idea to match those who can do math to those who
> own, or don't own, BTC.

Forget calculus. Most college graduates today are too stupid to
do even fourth grade math, because they've been taking women's studies
or sociology or equivalent courses that teach you to be stupid.
In fact, most of them can't do second grade math.

For example: "Jack bought a tv set for $237.99. Jane bought a tv set
that was 27% less expensive. How much did Jane pay?"

That's a fairly simple fourth grade percentage problem, but it's
completely inscrutable to idiots like AOC and other college graduates
today.

That's why they're calling math "racist"." Because they're idiots.
Reply
** 11-Mar-2021 World View: UN Official: Myanmar military - Crimes Against Humanity

Arbitrary murders and arrests of people in Myanmar suspected of being
protesters has been increasing every day, to the point that the
"United Nations Special Rapporteur to Syria," Thomas Andrews, said on
Thursday:

Quote: "There is growing evidence that (the) Myanmar
military, led by the same senior leadership, is now likely
engaging in crimes against humanity, including acts of murder,
enforced disappearance, persecution, torture. ...

The country of Myanmar is being controlled by a murderous, illegal
regime.

There is extensive video evidence of security forces viciously
beating protesters, medics, and bystanders. There is video of
soldiers and police systematically moving through neighbourhoods,
destroying property, looting shops, arbitrarily arresting
protesters and passersby, and firing indiscriminately into
people’s homes."

Andrews implied that the UN would not be able to do anything about it,
which is true, since any action by the Security Council would be
vetoed by China. However, he called on individual countries to impose
sanctions on the junta leaders and on the military-owned Myanmar Oil
and Gas Enterprise, whose revenues from natural gas projects he said
were set to reach $1 billion this year.

---- Sources:

-- Myanmar Military Likely Behind 'Crimes Against Humanity': UN Expert
https://www.barrons.com/news/myanmar-mil...05?tesla=y
(AFP, 11-Mar-2021)

-- Thomas Andrews / U.N. rights expert says Myanmar death toll hits
70, seeks sanctions
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanm...B32GK?il=0
(Reuters, 11-Mar-2021)
Reply
** 12-Mar-2021 World View: Antifa-blm violence explodes in Portland Oregon on Thursday

[Image: 40373648-9354103-image-a-2_1615532483582.jpg]
  • Tweet by local journalist Garrison Davis showing federal
    police clashing with protesters in Portland on Thursday night (Daily
    Mail)


Democrats had promised that the antifa-blm fascist riots would end
once Trump was no longer president, but they've actually been
continuing off and on in Portland, Oregon, for over a year.

On Thursday evening they exploded. Dozens of demostrators set fires,
smashed windows, and burned American flags outside the federal
courthouse until police forced them to flee. Courthouse walls were
spray-painted with graffiti as well.

The police deployed chemical weapons and projectiles. Bystanders
claimed the police were aggressive and the air was thick with smoke.
Police said they expected more violence over the weekend.

The antifa rioters were reportedly rioting against Immigration and
Customs Enforcement (ICE). Others protested proposed plans to replace
and expand an oil pipeline that stretches between Superior, WI, and
Alberta, Canada. Protesters carried a large banner proclaiming:
“Protect the land, end America.”

Black lives matter (blm) supporters said that they were rioting in
protest of the refusal by Portland police and Mayor Ted Wheeler’s
refusal to reopen a case where a black man was allegedly shot multiple
times by police.

It seems likely that antifa-blm fascist violence is going to grow as
the weather warms up, and spread to other cities.

The trial in Minneapolis of the Derek Chauvin in the death of George
Floyd is expected to trigger nationwide antifa-blm fascist violence
because, according to several legal analysts on Fox News including
Alan Dershowitz, the evidence is insufficient for a verdict for guilty
of murder, although there may be enough evidence for a verdict for
guilty of manslaughter.

Ted Wheeler, the Mayor of Portland, is seeking $2 million in
additional funding for police. Last summer, Wheeler led the way to
defund the police, but there has been a massive increase in gun
violence, and he's forced to make a u-turn.

--- Sources:

-- Portland protesters set fires, damage federal courthouse; officers
respond with tear gas, impact munitions
https://www.oregonlive.com/portland/2021...sters.html
(Oregonian, 12-Mar-2021)

-- Crowd becomes destructive outside federal courthouse in downtown
Portland; officers deploy tear gas
https://www.kgw.com/article/news/local/c...95d9e9a698
(KGW-Portland, 12-Mar-2021)

-- Ted Wheeler / Portland mayor seeks $2M for police to stem rampant
gun violence
https://lasvegassun.com/news/2021/mar/11...-violence/
(AP, 11-Mar-2021)

-- Overnight riots in Portland: Tear-gas, violent confrontation with
police outside federal courthouse
https://www.bizpacreview.com/2021/03/12/...e-1041901/
(BizPacReview, 12-Mar-2021)

-- Portland burns AGAIN: Federal agents shoot tear gas at Antifa
protesters setting fire to American flags and smashing windows
outside boarded-up courthouse
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...tland.html
(DailyMail, 12-Mar-2021)
Reply
** 13-Mar-2021 World View: Generational timeline for Vietnam

Phong Tran" Wrote:> I was wondering if you were planning to include a generational
> historical breakdown of Vietnam, the same way that a breakdown for
> the history of Myanmar (Burma) was presented?

I've added a generation timeline to most of the dynasty histories,
and I've added a section listing the major generational crisis
wars in history:

111 BC - Invasion and conquest by Chinese
938 AD - Battle of Bach Dang River -- end of Chinese rule
1287 - Tran Dynasty defeats the Mongol invasion
1471 - Destruction of Champa Kingdom
1771 - Tay-Son Rebellion
1887 - France completes conquest of French Indochina
1979 - Climax of massive genocidal war involving Vietnam,
Cambodia and China

Phong Tran" Wrote:> Just one other thought about the book. I'm wondering if the sub
> title "How Vietnam became an economic powerhouse after the
> Vietnam War
" may be a bit misleading as only Part II really
> talks about Vietnam's economic history and policies which is only
> about 10-15% of the book. Anyone purchasing the book based on the
> title might be expecting the topic to be at least 30-35% of the
> book.

Haha. That's very funny.

If you're not Vietnamese, and you want to live in Vietnam or do
business in Vietnam, then you're going to have to know a lot more than
just a list of economic reforms. Such a person should really take the
time to understand the entire history of Vietnam, to get a feel for
what the Vietnamese culture is like. Therefore, 100% of the book is
how Vietnam became an economic powerhouse.
Reply
** 14-Mar-2021 World View: Preparing for the approaching crisis

We've written a lot in this forum about preparing for the coming
crisis, and Navigator has written an entire book on making
preparations (see below).

Aeden has highlighted a new article on crisis preparation. It's worth
a read:

*** Here’s How 30 Preppers Have Adapted and What They Foresee Happening Next
https://www.theorganicprepper.com/preppers-adapted/

Reposted on Zerohedge:
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finan...ening-next

These are simple suggestions, like staying out of debt, keeping a
stock of dry foods, more gardening, and so forth.

Some people are preparing for "hyperinflation." As I've written in
detail many times, hyperinflation is impossible, and we're headed for
a deflationary crisis. That's why you have to stay out of debt.

At any rate, the article is worthwhile reading.

Navigator's book, How To Prepare For The Coming Storms, provides
valuable detailed information on what what's coming. Much of the
information in this book is not available in any form anywhere else.

You can obtain a copy of this book by making a $25 donation to the
following GoFundMe campaign:

https://www.gofundme.com/f/coming-storms-preparation

This donation will fund further development of Generational Dynamics.
Reply
** 14-Mar-2021 World View: Sunday morning news

Some highlights from the Sunday morning news shows today:
  • Fox News is focusing on the crisis at the southern border.
    This is an enormous crisis, which is growing worse every day, where
    thousands of migrants are simply walking in to the US. The children
    are locked up in storage containers, while the adults are put on buses
    to go wherever they want. According to sample tests, about 10% of
    them have Covid, and they're spreading it across the country.

    Another issue is that Mexican cartels are making huge amounts of money
    from this. They have complete control of the border, and they charge
    people who want to cross into America. The charge is around $5,000
    for someone from Central America, and $15,000 for someone from Europe
    or the Mideast. That doesn't even count the tons of drugs that are
    coming across the border and are being sent across the county.
    Democrats want this to continue so that the illegal immigrants will
    vote for Democrats.

    Needless to say, only Fox News is covering this. The mainstream media
    are totally silent about this.

  • The mainstream media are focusing on Biden's speech last week, how
    wonderful and nurturing it was, and how it's preparing the country to
    be ready for get-togethers by July 4. I also saw discussions about
    how California is handling the Covid crisis properly, while Florida is
    not.

    There's also a lot of coverage about Andrew Cuomo and his seven sexual
    abuse accusers. This whole subject is a farce, since Democrats don't
    care about rape or sexual abuse by Democrats. The most obvious
    example of this is that something like a dozen women accused Bill
    Clinton of violent rape, but Democrats still treat him like a god, and
    the same for Hillary, who trashes any of Clinton's rape victims.
    Democrats love rape when the rapist is a Democrat.

    So the question I have is: Why are the Democrats throwing Cuomo under
    the bus? They could easily bat away Cuomo's accusers, just as they've
    batted away Clinton's accusers. I'm 100% certain it has nothing to do
    with sexual abuse or nursing home deaths, since Democrats don't even
    care about those. Most likely is that they want to replace Cuomo with
    an even loonier leftist.

  • On CNN's Reliable Sources this morning, there was a long segment
    attacking Fox's Tucker Carlson. I recommend Carlson to everyone
    because he's been the most effective in exposing the loony leftist
    policies, such as saying that there's no difference between male and
    female, or teaching kids that all whites are racists, or ignoring the
    antifa-blm violence that's once again spreading, or the cancel culture
    lunacy. The fact that CNN is spending so much time attacking Carlson
    and trying to force him off the air shows how effective he's
    become.
Reply
** 15-Mar-2021 World View: Myanmar / Burma violence continues to grow explosively

Over 50 peaceful protesters were shot dead by security forces in
Yangon, Myanmar / Burma, over the weekend.

According to reports by BBC correspondent Jonathan Head, the security
forces (police + army) are becoming extremely contemptuous of the
peaceful protestors. They shoot people without provocation, picking
them off from bridges with high-powered rifles, and then picking off
someone who tries to help. According to Head, they're posting videos
expressing contempt of ordinary civilian protesters.

This is the same kind of contempt that the army showed for Rohingya
Muslims, when they were conducting genocide and ethnic cleansing.

If this isn't a real sign of an impending civil war, then I don't know
what is. The next step would be for someone to supply weapons to
protesters.
Reply
** 15-Mar-2021 World View: Syria vs Burma/Myanmar

DaKardii Wrote:> Exactly ten years after the civil war in Syria began under similar
> circumstances. Could history repeat [in Burma]? And if it does,
> could it drag in the US, China, and India into a proxy
> war?

There are significant differences.

The Syria civil war began during a generational Awakening era. The
war would have fizzled, and in fact al-Assad was losing the war in
2015, but Russia, Iran and Hezbollah moved in to support al-Assad. So
the war was internationalized when other countries entered to support
al-Assad, and also when young Sunnis from some 80 countries traveled
to Syria to fight against al-Assad, eventually forming ISIS.

Myanmar/Burma is well into a generational Crisis era, so there is no
chance of the civil war fizzling. Other countries may get involved,
but not because they need to support junta leader Min Aung Hlaing.

China may get drawn in because the protesters are blaming China for
supporting the junta. Over the weekend, two China-owned factories in
Yangon were burned down.

India may get drawn because Burma refugees may flee across the border
into India. Already, about a dozen Burmese policemen have crossed
into India seeking asylum because they don't want to kill civilians,
and Burma is demanding that they be extradited. If India gets
involved, it may be on the side of the junta, since India also has a
lot of Rohingya refugees.
Reply
*** 16-Mar-21 World View -- After ten years, Qatar seeks to become Syria war mediator

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • After ten years, Qatar seeks to become Syria war mediator
  • Ten years of war have turned an affluent Syria into a country in ruins
  • The remaining battleground in Idlib province
  • Qatar's strategy in offering to mediate the Syrian war
  • Syrian war timeline

****
**** After ten years, Qatar seeks to become Syria war mediator
****


[Image: g210315b.jpg]
Map of Syria showing areas of control, as of February 2021 (BBC)

On Thursday of last week, a three-way conference was held in Doha,
Qatar's capital, to lay the groundwork for a political solution to war
in Syria that began in 2011. Qatar has suffered some foreign policy
defeats in recent years, and is looking for a new role to play, and
apparently sees this as a way of gaining increased influence in the
Mideast.

The conference was attended by ministers form Qatar, Russia and
Turkey. They were Qatar's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of
Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Russia's Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov and Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu.

According to Cavusoglu: "Today we launched a new trilateral
consultation process. Our goal is to discuss how we can contribute to
efforts towards a lasting political solution in Syria."

This is laughable. The United Nations has appointed several envoys --
Kofi Annon, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura -- to mediate a
political solution, and in the end they all resigned in disgust after
being made useful idiots by Bashar al-Assad. In neach case they
provided cover for al-Assad to continue his war crimes and genocide
targeting innocent Arab Sunnis, and also provided cover for al-Assad's
supporters in Russia and Iran, allowing them to make sanctimonious
statements while they support al-Assad's bloody slaughter. The UN has
recently appointed a new envoy, Geir Pedersen, who sounds to me like
all the others, and speaks the same nonsense.

All of these envoys say the same thing: "A military solution is
impossible. There has to be a political solution." The problem is
that Syria, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah have joined together, and have
brought about a military holocaust in Syria. Bashar al-Assad believes
that he is close to a total victory, and will never agree to any
political solution.

So now Qatar wants to take on the role of mediator. Qatar is a little
different from the envoys because it openly supports tne anti-Assad
Arab political opposition, while the UN envoys are supposedly neutral.
But Qatari officials apparently believe that they can use their
existing relationship with Russia to bring something about.

Russia's Vladimir Putin, of course, doesn't care how many Sunni Arabs
Bashar al-Assad beats, tortures, rapes or kills. Russia is supporting
al-Assad because it wants to retain control of its two military bases
in Syria, the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase. When
al-Assad begged Putin for military help in 2015, Putin agreed to help,
and received control of the two military bases in return.

****
**** Ten years of war have turned an affluent Syria into a country in ruins
****


Ten years ago, Syria used to be a beautiful, affluent middle-class
country. Today, the entire country looks like a war zone, with
buildings destroyed everywhere, particularly schools, hospitals and
markets.

Of the 22 million people that lived in Syria before the war, about
half a million have been killed, and more than 12 million people have
been forced to flee their homes, either becoming refugees or displaced
people in their own country.

Today, Syria is an economic basket case, with massive poverty among
people who still live there, and among Syrians who live in refugee
camps in Lebanon and Turkey.

The Syrian currency, the Lira, has crashed. $10 used to give you 500
Syrian Lira. Now $10 is 40,000 Syrian Lira. Money-changers need carts
to carry their currency, in a scene reminiscent of the wheelbarrows of
money in Germany in the hyperinflation of the early 1920s.

Post-war discontent with corruption, spiralling food prices, a
collapsed currency, worsening power cuts and gasoline shortages have
aggravated hardships for the remaining citizens.

****
**** The remaining battleground in Idlib province
****


The war in Syria has become more or less static in the last year.
There are about 2.5 million Sunni Arabs in Idlib province, which is in
northwest Syria along the border with Turkey, and I had expected that
Syria's dictator Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia, would by this time
have found a way to exterminate many of the 2.5 million people, who
are mostly women and children. But Turkey has sent its own troops and
tanks into Idlib, and al-Assad's extermination process has been
slowed.

Al-Assad himself has been shown by defectors to be someone who gets
obvious pleasure from gouging out people's eyes or pulling out their
fingernails, or other forms of torture. (See "8-Feb-17 World View -- Investigation reveals depraved new atrocities by Syria's Bashar al-Assad"
)

Most of the civilians in Idlib are women and children refugees from
other provinces, including Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa and Quneitra. In
each of the other provinces, al-Assad sent missiles into school
dormitories to kill children, or dropped barrel bombs laden with
metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons on civilian
neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill large groups of people.
Al-Assad's barrel bombs, missiles and chemical weapons have
specifically targeted schools, markets and hospitals, in order to kill
as many women and children as possible, Since chlorine gas is heavier
than air, it seeps down into the basements and forces the choking
women and children out into the open, where they can be targeted by
missiles and gunfire. As if that wasn't enough, al-Assad was
supported by Russian warplanes.

In each case, international pressure forced al-Assad to allow hundreds
of thousands of civilians, mostly women and children, to escape to
Idlib province. The result is that about half the population in Idlib
is refugees from other provinces.

Bashar al-Assad repeatedly vowed to attack Idlib next, with Russian
support, and to exterminate all the Sunni Arab civilians. This threat
actually presented a huge threat to Turkey and even to Europe, as
those attacks would drive millions of refugees across the border into
Turkey, and possibly into Europe from there.

To block this, Turkey sent its own troops into Idlib, so that an
attack on Idlib would be an attack on Turkey. This has prevented the
expected extermination of Sunni Arabs in Idlib. But it has also
raised pressure on Turkey to end its "occupation" of Syrian territory.

****
**** Qatar's strategy in offering to mediate the Syrian war
****


From the outbreak of the Syrian conflict, Qatar, provided huge
financial, political and media support for opposition groups,
especially armed ones. However, this aid stopped in 2015 when Russia
intervened.

Qatar has for years had sharp differences with the other members of
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). In March 2014, Saudi Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain recalled their ambassadors from
Qatar after a stormy meeting. One issue was Qatar's friendly
relationship with Iran,as well as Qatari support for two organizations
that Saudi Arabia and UAE consider to be terrorist organizations --
the Muslim Brotherhood and the Union of Muslim Scholars.

They papered over their differences in 2014, but the diffeences
exploded in June 2016, when Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, and the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) also broke relations and imposed a sea, air
and land blockade on Qatar. Qatar is a very wealthy country and was
able to weather this blockade, but it lost influence in the Mideast.

There has been some softening of the blockade in recent months. That
change, combined with the presence of a new admiistration in the
United States, has led Qatar to change direction and reactivate its
diplomatic posture.

Having ended its aid to Syrian opposition groups in 2014, Qatar is now
returning to mediation in the Syria war, taking advantage of what it
hopes are its existing good relations with Russia and Iran.

****
**** Syrian war timeline
****


The following timeline lists the major events in the ten-year Syrian
war?
  • March 2011 -- The first big protests against Assad’s rule that
    began in Deraa in southern Syria spread across the country. Security
    forces respond with arrests and shootings.
  • August 2011 -- Al-Assad began his policy of ethnic cleansing and
    genocide by attacking and cleansing the al-Ramel Palestinian refugee
    camp in Latakia, forcing 10,000 people to flee for their lives.
    Later, that region was repopulated by Iranian and Hezbollah Shias.
    This was the launch of genocidal attacks on many Syrian cities. The
    attack on the Palestinian camp was signficant because it
    internationalized the war, and eventually caused thousands of young
    Sunni males in 80 countries to travel to Syria to fight al-Assad,
    eventually forming ISIS.
  • April 30, 2012 -- Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallad gave a
    televised speech committing Hezbollah's soldiers to enter Syria and
    fight on the side of al-Assad's army.
  • May 2012 -- Syrian security forces stormed Aleppo University,
    breaking down doors and using machine guns and rifles against
    students. Al-Assad launched air raids on many cities and towns,
    killing thousands. This began a policy of targeting schools,
    hospitals, markets and residential neighborhoods, particularly
    targeting women and children.
  • December 2012 -- US officials confirm that Syria has the precursor
    chemicals for deadly Sarin gas, and loaded the gas into bombs. Iraq's
    president Saddam Hussein's forces killed 5,000 Kurds with a single
    Sarin gas attack on Halabja in 1988. Barack Obama declared that use
    of chemical weapons would be a "red line" that would provoke a
    military response from the US.
  • March 19, 2013 -- A Sarin gas attack killed 26.
  • June 2013 -- Syria launched a Sarin gas attack on a densely
    populated rebel-held Eastern Ghouta on the outskirts of Damascus
    killing hundreds of civilians, without triggering a U.S. military
    response.
  • August 21, 2013 -- A Sarin gas attack on the densely populated
    Eastern Ghouta on the outskirts of Damascus. Washington declares it
    to be use of chemical weapons violating its red line, without
    triggering a U.S. military response.
  • January 2014 -- A jihadist group, later to be called ISIS, seized
    territory across Syria and Iraq, and declared a caliphate.
  • April 13, 2014 -- First reported use of chlorine gas by al-Assad
    in barrel bombs targeting women and children in markets and
    residential neighborhoods.
  • September 2014 -- US begins air strikes in support of the Kurds
    against ISIS
  • May 2015 -- After suffering several major military defeats, and
    with his army near total collapse, al-Assad announces that he's losing
    the war.
  • June 2015 -- Iran announces plans to deploy tens of thousands of
    troops to Syria in support of al-Assad.
  • September 2015 -- Russia joins the war on al-Assad's side,
    deploying warplanes and giving military aid that, with the help of
    Iran, swiftly turns the course of conflict against the rebels.
  • December 2016 -- After massive slaughter of residents of Aleppo by
    Syrian and Russian forces, al-Assad scores a "historic victory" in
    Aleppo.
  • February 2018 -- Syria, Russia, Iran conduct full-on mass
    extermination of civilians in Eastern Ghouta
  • April 2018 -- Donald Trump administration, allied with France and
    Britain, launch a missile attack on Syria in retaliation for crossing
    "red line" on use of chemical weapons. However, al-Assad continued to
    use chemical weapons anyway, with impunity.
  • May 2018 -- Civilians in Eastern Ghouta and Douma are allowed to
    flee to Idlib province
  • June 2018 -- Al-Assads begins massive slaughter in Daraa and
    Quneitra provinces.
  • July 2018 -- Civilians in Daraa and Quneitra provinces are allowed
    to flee to Idlib province.
  • August 2018 -- Al-Assad promised to slaughter all the 2.5 million
    people at that time.
  • October 2019 -- Trump administration announced withdrawal of
    American troops. Turkey announced plan to invade Turkey to protect
    civilians in Idlib, and to keep Kurds under control in northeastern
    Syria.
  • February 2020 -- Turkey sent tanks across border into Syria to
    confront al-Assad regime in Idlib

Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Qatar,
Russia, Turkey, Iran, Hezbollah, Vladimir Putin,
Kofi Annon, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura, Geir Pedersen,
Idlib province, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, Quneitra.
Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC,
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Muslim Brotherhood, Union of Muslim Scholars.
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallad, Aleppo University,
Sarin gas, chlorine, barrel bombs,
al-Ramel Palestinian refugee camp, Latakia

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John J. Xenakis
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Reply
Butcher Assad has all the cards.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
** 21-Mar-2021 World View: Sunday morning news - Southern border

Some highlights from the Sunday morning news shows today:

How things have changed in a week! Last Sunday, the mainstream media
were pretending that there was nothing going on at the southern
border, and only Fox News discussed the crisis. Everyone else was
silent.

Now, the crisis has gotten so bad that the mainstream media are
even calling it a crisis, although the administration is calling
it a "challenge," apparently thinking that the rest of us
are so stupid we believe them.

Here's how CNN described the situation:

Quote:> "CNN previously reported that children are alternating
> schedules to make space for one another in confined facilities,
> some kids haven't seen sunlight in days and others are taking
> turns showering, often going days without one, according to case
> managers, attorneys and Border Patrol agents. Bunk beds have been
> brought in to one of the processing facilities to help accommodate
> the influx of children, with one agent saying children are also
> sleeping on plastic cots and mats on the floor and
> benches."
> https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/21/politics/...index.html
>

The administration used to criticize Trump for cruelty with "kids in
cages," but Biden's is a far more cruel situation, with kids crammed
into shipping crates with no social distancing, no sunlight, and
limited facilities. Furthermore, the kids are being controlled by
child traffickers who abuse the kids and exploit them sexually.
Furthermore, the cartels are using the fact that border agents are
overwhelmed to massive amounts of Fentynal and other drugs into the
US.

Meanwhile, adults are now simply crossing the border and told to go
wherever the want, without even being tested for Covid. They aren't
even being assigned a court date, which is what Obama used to do.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas made the rounds of the
news shows, clearly telling one idiotic lie after another -- the
border is closed, the situation is under control, it's all Trump's
fault, blah blah blah.

Here's Mayorkas' position:
  • He stated without evidence that the Trump administration dismantled
    the border policies that Obama had set up.

  • He said that Trump's policies were cruel, and that's why Biden
    rushed to dismantle all of Trump's policies on day one.

  • He stated without evidence that they have a new plan. If they
    have a plan, nobody knows what it is, so it's pretty clear that they
    don't have a plan.

  • It will take time to implement the new plan, and then everything
    will be dandy.

This is complete nonsense by an administration that's floundering, led
by someone who is cognitively deficient, and which has no plan and no
idea what to do.

One of the flaws in this logic is that if the administration knew
there would be a surge, then why did they rush to dismantle Trump's
policies before beginning implementation of their own policies? They
should have held off dismantling Trump's policies until they were
prepared. But they didn't care about the damage they were doing.
They just wanted to reverse the policies of the hated Trump.
Reply
** 21-Mar-2021 World View: Sunday morning news - Anti-Asian hate

The other big story this morning was the anti-Asian hate crimes. The
mainstream media, which are suffering PTSD from lack of having Trump
around, blamed the Atlanta shooting on Trump's phrase "China virus,"
which is ridiculous.

All the signs are there that the Atlanta shooter was obsessed with
Asian women and went berserk. I find this quite believable, since
I've known two guys in the past who were obsessed with Asian women --
to date them not to kill them. There's something about Asian women
that causes some men (not me) to obsess about them. (However, I admit
that I do find Elementary star Lucy Liu to be super-hot.)

The mainstream media were going on and on blaming white supremacists
for thousands of incidents last year for anti-Asian hate incidents.
However, the data shows that most anti-Asian hate crimes are
perpetrated by blacks.

In January, the National Institutes of Health used data from the
Department of Justice to "examine the nature and characteristics of
hate crimes against Asian Americans." The report compared hate crimes
against Asian Americans, African Americans, and Hispanics.

The most important finding of the report is that perpetrators of hate
crimes against Asians are most likely to be blacks. This is something
that's been known anecdotally for a long time, but the NIH report
confirms it. It's also clear that the writers of the NIH report don't
want you to easily find this result, probably for fear that if they
expose the truth, they'll get fired or canceled by the Stalinist
Democrat Party regime.

You have to go far into the report to find the results (search for
"Table 3" or "Findings of this study, however, also provide support to
the minority-specific model"), but the findings are clear:
  • Hate crimes against Asians are overwhelmingly done by blacks.

    "Hate crimes against Asian Americans are more likely than hate crimes
    against either African Americans or Hispanics to be committed by
    non-White offenders."

  • Blacks may be motivated by their resentment of the success of
    Asians.

    "This finding may be attributed to animosity toward the “model
    minority” from other minority groups. As aforementioned, the “model
    minority” stereotype assuming Asian Americans’ success in economics,
    education, and other opportunities generates potential competition or
    threats by members of other racial groups, which in turn may lead to
    resentment to be further acted upon through hate crimes."

  • Blacks may be motivated by fears that they'll lose their special
    privileges and financial welfare and other benefits because Asians
    will get the same benefits during downturns.

    "Offenders of other minorities of color targeting Asian Americans
    might fit the category of “reactionists." ... Instead of acting
    impulsively, the “reactionists” are motivated by protecting their
    resources from competitors.... This finding might also lend indirect
    support to the perspective of racial competition motivating hate
    crimes, which argues that when members of a racial group perceive that
    their access and privileges to material resources are threatened by
    other racial groups during economic downturns, racial conflict and
    hate crimes may occur."

Although all three of these reasons apply to Black Lives Matter (blm),
the third reason seems to me the most relevant of all:
  • The increase in hate crimes against Asians in 2020 was not
    caused by Trump, but was caused by blacks fearing that they'll get
    less welfare payments, and Asians will get more.

  • The attacks by antifa-blm fascists, burning down and trashing
    small businesses, may have been specifically an attack on Asian owned
    businesses.

The article by Michelle Malkin referenced below provides multiple
examples of hate crimes against Asians by blacks, probably all
Democrats.

Reading through the news stories of that Atlanta shooting, you can
almost see the frustration of the writers that they can't find an
angle to blame Republicans. By this time it's almost certain that the
Atlanta shooter was a Democrat, probably a supporter of Black Lives
Matter.


---- Sources:

-- Hate Crimes against Asian Americans
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7790522/
(National Institutes of Health, 7-Jan-2021)

-- Asians: Stop blaming Whitey
https://norfolkdailynews.com/commentary/...12012.html
(Michelle Malkin, 10-Mar-2021)
Reply
** 22-Mar-2021 World View: Everything is a bubble?

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Here's your problem, and why you can't think straight about this
> topic: everything is a bubble to you. You can't even differentiate
> value from a bubble, because your whimsical approach doesn't
> define what either is. Sorry, you don't get to just declare
> something is a bubble without any reasoning. Tell me something
> that ISN'T a bubble (for example, something that is increasing in
> price, just to make it a comparison) and why?

> I hope everyone notices the response to this, will yet again, be a
> nothing answer.

I don't think that you actually care, but the following article
describes the analytical method for determining a bubble:

** WSJ's page one story on Bernanke's Princeton 'Bubble Laboratory' is almost incoherent
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e080518



The problem with Bitcoin is that it has no history. The 1929 crash
was entirely predictable because it had many decades of history. The
1987 false panic was not a crash, as could be proven by applying the
analytical method to decades of data.

But in the case of Bitcoin, all we can do is compare it to other
values that had no history, and Tulipomania and the South Sea Bubble
are the obvious choices. Without historical data, and with a
parabolically increasing value, the burden of proof is on the side of
proving that it isn't a bubble, but it obviously is.
Reply
** 22-Mar-2021 World View: Blacks and White Asians

tim Wrote:> I remember when not that long ago the Left was claiming that
> Asians were not "people of color" and are actually "white".

> Cue a mentally ill white man murdering Asian women and the Left no
> longer claims that Asians are "white", but are now regularly
> victims of "white supremacy".

> https://reason.com/volokh/2020/11/16/sch...-of-color/

> https://www.nationalreview.com/news/sf-s...get-ahead/

> https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volo...ame-white/

Thank you for posting those article links.

The NIH article that I referenced in my previous message, which NIH
posted in January of this year, makes it clear that anti-Asian hate
crimes are overwhelmingly perpetrated by blacks. The NIH article
gives two reasons: that blacks are resentful of the economic success
of Asians, and that blacks feel that they are in competition with
Asians for resources, since Asians are another "minority."

The articles you've posted make it clear that both of these reasons
are highly prevalent. One San Francisco school board member refers to
Asians as "house ni--ers" because she wants to "combat anti-black
racism." I guess she feels that the anti-Asian racism is the best way
to combat anti-black racism.

One of the articles says "Asians have become white," which is likely
"to create nasty, corrosive, sometimes fatal battles over which racial
groups get the spoils."

So the issue of anti-Asian hate groups is really about black
resentment of Asians' success, and about competition among minority
groups (blacks and Asians) for resources.
Reply
*** 23-Mar-21 World View -- Book Announcement: World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam War

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Book Announcement: World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam War
  • Description
  • Generational Theory Book Series
  • Table of Contents - World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam War

****
**** Book Announcement: World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam War
****


Announcing a new book on Vietnam and Buddhism by John J. Xenakis

Book Announcement: World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam War

Subtitle: How Vietnam became an economic powerhouse after the Vietnam War

[Image: vnbk300.jpg]
Book Announcement: World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam War, by John J. Xenakis

<center>
$13.99 -- Buy the paperback on Amazon

Click here for description and Complete Table of Contents

If you buy it, please write a 5-star amazon review. Thanks.
</center>

****
**** Description
****


Most people know nothing about Vietnam except that their grandfathers
fought in something called "the Vietnam War." And yet, as guardian of
the maritime routes from Europe to India, Malaya and China, Vietnam
has for millennia been a dominant player in world trade.

And now, with China illegally annexing the South China Sea, which
controls $1.3 trillion in trade, Vietnam's historic role as guardian
of the South China Sea could bring the two countries to full war, for
the first time in thirty years.

This book describes Vietnam's history since ancient times, through
rule by China, through independence, through multiple dynasties,
through colonization by France, and through the Indochina wars since
World War II, before becoming an economic powerhouse. Those seriously
interested in living in or doing business in Vietnam should understand
that historically it's not a country in the European sense, but is
composed of "Vietnam Villages" that define its culture and business
dealings, and should understand the interaction between Buddhism,
Confucianism, and Christianity in the villages and guilds.

The book has extensive coverage of the history and theology of
Buddhism, and how it spread from India to Vietnam and China, in one of
the most sigificant events in the history of religion. The book
explains how this was possible because of the specific interactions of
Buddhism, Daoism and Confucianism, and how Chinese and Vietnamese
leaders played one religion off of one another as needed to control
the population. In today's Vietnam, these tensions still exist,
especially between North and South.

The author's previous book on the history of Iran has extensive
coverage of the history and theology of Islam and Christianity, while
his book on China does the same for Confucianism and Daoism. Putting
the three books together provides a comprehensive understanding of the
world's religions.

The book also has extensive coverage of what "really happened" in the
Vietnam war. Most people, even those who fought in the war, or who
had family and friends who fought in the war, nonetheless have no idea
what the Vietnam War was about. Even Vietnamese people under age 50
don't know what it was about. This book will tell you what actually
happened -- not what the politicians and ideologues say happened, but
what actually did happen, and why it happened.

****
**** Generational Theory Book Series
****


I set up the GenerationalDynamics.com web site in 2003 as an
experiment, as I stated at the time. I would analyze current and
historical events through generational theory and Generational
Dynamics. I would make forecasts and predictions, and the articles
would remain on my web site for review at any time.

Now, almost 20 years later, there are over 6,000 articles on my web
site, containing thousands of analyses and predictions on hundreds of
countries, all of which are either true or trending true. None has
been shown to be wrong. There is no web site in the world with a
better successful forecasting and analysis record than mine, and there
is no politician, analyst or journalist with a better forecasting and
analysis record than mine.

There are now four books in the Generational Theory Book Series.

[Image: vnbk620.jpg]
Vietnam-Buddhism Book

"World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam War:
How Vietnam became an economic powerhouse after the Vietnam War"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 4), March 2021
Paperback: 325 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738645/

[Image: scbk620.jpg]
China-Japan Book

"World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019
Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

[Image: irbk620.jpg]
Iran Book

"World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's
Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018
Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/

[Image: gdbk620.jpg]
Anniversary Edition Book

"Generational Dynamics Anniversary Edition - Forecasting
America's Destiny",
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 3), January 2020,
Paperback: 359 pages, $14.99,
https://www.amazon.com/Generational-Dyna...732738629/

****
**** Table of Contents - World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam War
****




Table of Contents - World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam War

Part I. Vietnam, Buddhism and the Vietnam War -- Vietnam today
Chapter 1. Importance of Vietnam
Chapter 2. Overview of Contents
Chapter 3. Objectives of this book
Chapter 4. Description of Buddhist theology
Chapter 5. Getting a 'feel' for Vietnam
5.1. Vietnam country names
Chapter 6. Brief summary of generational eras

Part II. Vietnam's Doi Moi economic reforms (1986-present)
Chapter 7. Vietnam's legal and economic history
7.1. Nations, kingdoms, empires, leaders, kings, emperors, dynasties
7.2. Economic influences in historical Vietnam
7.3. Vietnam's economy after French colonization (1858)
7.4. Social etiquette
Chapter 8. The collapse of Communism, Socialism, Marxism in Asia
8.1. China -- Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward
8.2. Russia -- Perestroika and Glasnost
8.3. South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong -- the 'Asian Tigers'
8.4. The Doi Moi economic reforms
Chapter 9. Details of Doi Moi reforms
9.1. Reforming centrally-planned to market oriented economy
9.2. Land reform
9.3. Abolishing the dual-pricing system
9.4. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
9.5. Financial crisis in 2009-12
Chapter 10. Vietnam's economic crisis during Wuhan Coronavirus pandemic (2020)
10.1. Vietnam focuses on foreign investment and trade
10.2. Government heightened focus on high tech and artificial intelligence
10.3. Human Rights

Part III. Overview of Asian religions and theology
Chapter 11. Evolution of great religions
11.1. Evolutionary framework of great religions
11.2. Documentation -- written law of the great religions
11.3. Written law in Hinduism and Buddhism
11.4. Etiquette in engaging with Buddhists
Chapter 12. Overview of Buddhist theology
12.1. Achieving Nirvana
12.2. Theravada Buddhism ('Path of the Elders')
12.3. Mahayana Buddhism ('The Great Vehicle')
12.4. Hinayana Buddhism ('Modest Vehicle')
Chapter 13. The school of meditation: Ch'an / Zen Buddhism
13.1. Rise of Ch'an/Zen Buddhism in China
13.2. Philosophy of Daoism
13.3. Ch'an / Zen Buddhism and sudden enlightenment
13.4. Zen Buddhism in the West
Chapter 14. Other schools of Buddhism
14.1. The evolution and simplification of Buddhism
14.2. Pure Land Buddhism
14.3. Tantric (Vajrayana, Tibetan) Buddhism
14.4. Bodhisattvas in Mahayana Buddhism
14.5. The Maitreya in Buddhism

Part IV. How Hinduism and Buddhism spread from India to southern Vietnam
Chapter 15. Aryan invasion, and rise of Hinduism in India
15.1. Life of The Buddha (563-483 BC)
15.2. The Middle Way and Enlightenment
15.3. Hinduism and Buddhism
15.4. Popularity of Buddhism
Chapter 16. Legacy of Emperor Ashoka (304-232 BC, Ruled 273-232 BC)
16.1. Ashoka commits genocide and ethnic cleansing
16.2. Ashoka repents and converts to Buddhism
16.3. Spread of Buddhism north and south -- overview
16.4. Ashoka's influence on Buddhism
Chapter 17. Spread of Theravada Buddhism to southeast Asia and southern Vietnam
17.1. Spread of Buddhism to Ceylon (Sri Lanka)
17.2. Spread of Buddhism to Burma (Myanmar) and Siam (Thailand)
17.3. Spread of Buddhism to Malay Peninsula and Indonesia
17.4. Spread of Buddhism to Cambodia and southern Vietnam (Mekong Delta)

Part V. How Buddhism spread through China to northern Vietnam
Chapter 18. Spread of Mahayana Buddhism along the Great Silk Road
Chapter 19. Collapse of China's glorious Han Dynasty (206 BC – 220 AD)
19.1. Significance of China's Han Dynasty (206 BC – 220 AD)
19.2. Decline of the Han Dynasty in the 100s
19.3. Collapse of the Han Dynasty -- Yellow Turban Rebellion - 184 AD
Chapter 20. Changes to Daoism and Buddhism during and after Han Dynasty
20.1. Daoism during and after the declining Han Dynasty
20.2. Buddhism during and after the declining Han Dynasty
20.3. Differences between Chinese and Indian languages and culture
20.4. Role of Daoism in linking Indian and Chinese cultures
Chapter 21. Sacking by the Huns (311) -- China splits into North and South
Chapter 22. Spread of Buddhism south of the Yangtze River
22.1. Buddhism vs Confucianism and Daoism
Chapter 23. Spread of Buddhism north of the Yangtze River
23.1. Northern rulers' adoption of Buddhism
23.2. Northern rulers' misgivings about Buddhism
23.3. Emancipation of Buddhist ideas from Daoism in the North
Chapter 24. Spread of Buddhism in Sui and Tang dynasties (589-906)
24.1. Divergence of North and South during period of disunion
24.2. Regulation of religions during Sui-Tang dynasties
24.3. Great Buddhist movements during Sui-Tang dynasties
24.4. The school of meditation: Ch'an or Zen Buddhism
24.5. The catastrophic An Lu-shan Rebellion (755-763)
24.6. Union of Uighurs and Tibetans (765)
24.7. The Great Suppression of Buddhism (842-845)
24.8. Revival of Confucianism
Chapter 25. Zen Buddhism in Japan
25.1. The Zen Koan: What is the sound of one hand clapping?
Chapter 26. Buddhism in Vietnam
26.1. Adulteration / Syncretism of Buddhism in Vietnam
26.2. Vietnam Communist Party hostility to religion

Part VI. South Vietnam's ancient history
Chapter 27. Background: Archaeological ages and Geography
27.1. Archaeological ages
27.2. Stone age
27.3. Bronze age
27.4. Iron age
27.5. Vietnam's fusion of races, languages and cultures
27.6. Vietnam's Geography
Chapter 28. South Vietnam's ancient civilizations -- Sa Huynh, Dong Son
28.1. Sa Huynh culture (10000 BC - 200 AD)
28.2. Dong Son (Dong Son) culture
28.3. Growth of Dong Son culture
28.4. China-Vietnam disputes over Dong Son cultures

Part VII. The millennium of Chinese rule (111 BC to 938 AD) -- Viets, Funan, Champa, Khmers
Chapter 29. North Vietnam: Confucian Viet culture, following conquest by China
29.1. Chinese invasion and conquest (111 BC)
29.2. Confucianism in Vietnam and role of women
29.3. Trung Sisters Rebellion (40-43 AD) and reconquest by China
29.4. The Sinicization of North Vietnam
29.5. Ly Bi overthrows Chinese rule, creates Van Xuan empire (544-603)
29.6. Chinese rule by China's Tang dynasty (618-906)
Chapter 30. Chinese rule ends with spectacular Battle of Bach Dang River (938)
30.1. Ngo Quyen defeats Chinese in the spectacular Battle of Bach Dang River (938)
30.2. Dinh Bo Linh's tributary mission to China (968)
Chapter 31. Far Southern Vietnam: Rise of Hinduized Funan culture, centered in Cambodia
31.1. Funan Culture and Oc-Eo port city
Chapter 32. Central Vietnam: Rise of Champa culture
32.1. Champa culture
32.2. Cham people today

Part VIII. Nine centuries of Vietnam independence -- 938 - 1862
Chapter 33. Reference list of Vietnamese dynasties after independence
Chapter 34. Vietnam villages
34.1. Vietnam's guilds and villages
34.2. Village organization
Chapter 35. Brief history of Laos
Chapter 36. Early Le Dynasty (980-1005)
36.1. Generational summary
36.2. Defeating another Chinese invasion
Chapter 37. The First Great Dynasty: The Later Ly Dynasty (1009–1225)
37.1. Generational summary
37.2. Development of agriculture in Red River Delta -- and southward move
37.3. Development of written law
37.4. Growth of Buddhism in Nam Viet
37.5. Buddhism in central and south Vietnam
37.6. Champa Kingdom conquest by Angkor Khmers (Cambodia) (1203-20)
37.7. Cultural differences: Nam Viet vs Champa
Chapter 38. The Second Great Dynasty -- The Tran Dynasty (1225-1400)
38.1. Generational summary
38.2. Mobilizing eunuchs and slaves - preparing for war
38.3. Sacking of Champa capital Vijaya (1252)
38.4. First Mongol War (1257)
38.5. The Tran vs the Mongols [1284-1287]
38.6. Tran Dynasty defeats the Mongols (1284, 1287)
38.7. Mongols face Vietnamese war elephants (1284)
38.8. Tran soldiers defeat Mongols in Battle of Bach Dang (1287)
38.9. Tran war with Champa (1312)
38.10. Buddhism vs Confucianism during the Tran dynasty
38.11. Growth of Confucianism to modern times
Chapter 39. Ho Dynasty (1400-1407) -- Vietnam's most hated dynasty
39.1. Ho general usurps the throne
39.2. China invades Vietnam in brutal period of governance
39.3. Ho Dynasty echoes through Vietnam's history
39.4. War with the Chinese (1417-1427)
Chapter 40. Later Le Dynasty Part 1: destruction of Champa Kingdom (1428-1527)
40.1. Generational summary
40.2. Destruction of Champa Kingdom (1471)
40.3. Southern expansion (nam-tien) and land settlement (don dien)
40.4. Aftermath of the destruction of Champa kingdom
40.5. Decline of the Le Dynasty (1497-1527)
Chapter 41. Later Le Dynasty Part 2: The warring warlords (1527-1787)
41.1. Generational summary
41.2. The Mac family and Nguyen family split Vietnam in two (1527-45)
41.3. Trinh family joins the struggle (1545-1592)
41.4. Arrival of the Europeans - 1600s
41.5. The inevitable war between Nguyen and Trinh begins (1620-1672)
Chapter 42. The cataclysmic Tay-Son Rebellion (1771-1790, defeated 1802)
42.1. Background to Tay-Son Rebellion
42.2. The Ho (Nguyen) brothers begin the Tay-Son rebellion
42.3. Marxist Socialism before Marx -- Tay-Son rebellion
42.4. Tay-Son rebels align themselves with Chinese pirates
42.5. Socialism in the 21st century -- Memories of the Tay-Son rebellion
Chapter 43. Nguyen Phuc Anh (Gia Long) launches a harsh new Nguyen Dynasty
43.1. List of kings of the Nguyen Dynasty
43.2. Generational summary
43.3. Nguyen Phuc Anh defeats the Tay-Son rebels (1776-1802)
43.4. Vietnam finally adopts the name Viet Nam
43.5. The Nguyen Dynasty (1802-1945)
43.6. Nguyen Dynasty and persecution of Christians

Part IX. The Treaty of Saigon and French colonization (1862-1954)
Chapter 44. Treaty of Saigon, June 1862
44.1. France completes conquest of French Indochina (1887)
Chapter 45. Conflicts during French colonization
45.1. Vietnam Villages during French colonization
45.2. Vietnam government after the Treaty of Saigon (1862-1954)
45.3. Truong Dinh -- anti-French guerrilla movement (1858-64)
45.4. Anti-Catholic violence
45.5. Vietnamese modernization movements opposing French colonialism
Chapter 46. Rise of Vietnam nationalism up to World War II
46.1. Phan Boi Chau and the Rise of Nationalism (1904)
46.2. Did Ho Chi Minh betray Phan Boi Chau?
46.3. Rise of Ho Chi Minh and fight for independence from the French
46.4. European migration to French Indochina until 1945

Part X. Understanding the context of America's 'Vietnam War'
Chapter 47. Summary of America's Vietnam War
Chapter 48. Major findings about America's Vietnam War
48.1. Disastrous decisions by President Kennedy
48.2. The question of insanity
48.3. The question of sophistry
48.4. Facts and events vs Context
48.5. Was the Vietnam War worth the cost?
Chapter 49. Major world events as context of Vietnam War
49.1. March of Communism
49.2. North Vietnam's toxic relationships with China and Soviet Russia
49.3. Vietcong insurgency in South Vietnam
49.4. Laos coup and the 'Ho Chi Minh Trail'
Chapter 50. Insanity and Greek Tragedy
50.1. Understanding Greek Tragedy
50.2. Insanity
50.3. Aeschylus and Prometheus
50.4. The relevance of Greek Tragedy
50.5. The Vietnam War and Greek Tragedy
50.6. Setting the scene in 1959-60 -- the seeds of future defeat
50.7. The main characters
Chapter 51. Generational issues
51.1. The Vietnam War and American generations
51.2. Public moods in Vietnam, France and America after WW II
51.3. Hannah Arendt -- 'the calm that settles after all hopes have died'
51.4. Communism on the march -- and the 'Iron Curtain'
51.5. The Truman Doctrine makes America Policeman of the World (1947)
51.6. Truman receives NSC-68 report calling for Soviet Communist 'containment' (April 14, 1950)
51.7. Communist North Korea invades South Korea (June 25, 1950)
51.8. President Eisenhower explains the Domino Theory (1954)
51.9. President Kennedy's 'ask not' inauguration speech (1961)
Chapter 52. From trauma in World War II to a Generation Gap in the 1960s
52.1. The traumatic World War II
52.2. Lessons learned: New laws and institutions after WW II
52.3. Definition of the 'Generation Gap'
52.4. The Summer of Love (1967)
52.5. America's generational Awakening era -- 1960s-1970s
52.6. Generation Gap resolution -- Awakening Climax
Chapter 53. Examples of generational Recovery and Awakening Eras
53.1. America after World War II (1945)
53.2. Iran after Great Islamic Revolution (1979)
53.3. Zimbabwe after war of independence (1980)
53.4. China after the Communist Revolution (1949)
53.5. American Civil War (1865)
53.6. America's Revolutionary War (1782)
53.7. Japan after the Meiji Restoration (1868)
53.8. Japan after World War II (1945)
53.9. The generational 'Democide Pattern'
Chapter 54. The political debate over America's 'Vietnam War'
54.1. The left-wing antiwar view of the Vietnam war
54.2. The Vietnamese view of the Vietnam war
54.3. America allies with Ho Chi Minh in World War II
Chapter 55. Overview of the Vietnam War

Part XI. French Indochina War (First Indochina War, Nov 1946 to Aug 1954)
Chapter 56. Beginnings of the war
Chapter 57. Vietminh strategy
Chapter 58. Battle of Dien Bien Phu

Part XII. Interwar period -- 1954-1959 -- Republic of Vietnam
Chapter 59. Disagreements between China and Vietnam over who gets the credit
Chapter 60. History of persecution of Catholics
Chapter 61. North-South migration after First Indochina war
Chapter 62. Land reform program
Chapter 63. Beginnings of American military involvement
Chapter 64. Le Duan replaces Ho Chi Minh as de facto North Vietnam leader
64.1. Legacy of Le Duan (1908-1986)
64.2. Rise of Le Duan
Chapter 65. North Vietnam ratifies Resolution 16, authorizing war with the South (May 1959)

Part XIII. Second Indochina War 1959-1975 (America's "Vietnam War")
Chapter 66. Conflicts between Washington and Saigon
66.1. Core issues - John Kennedy and William Averell Harriman
66.2. Kennedy's youth and inexperience
66.3. Two peoples, quite apart in culture, thrown together against a common enemy
66.4. Ngo Dinh Diem and South Vietnam's imperfect democracy
66.5. America's conflicting values and policies
66.6. America's conflicting policies in Vietnam under Eisenhower
66.7. Kennedy's disastrous international agreement on Laos
66.8. The Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba (April, 1961)
Chapter 67. Conflicting counterinsurgency (COIN) strategies
67.1. Summary of conflicting counterinsurgency (COIN) strategies
67.2. Counterinsurgency (COIN) military doctrine
67.3. Clear-hold-build counterinsurgency framework
Chapter 68. Antecedents of Vietnam's Strategic Hamlet program
68.1. Description of the resettlement strategy for COIN operations
68.2. Boer War (1899-1902) resettlement operations for counterinsurgency
68.3. The Malayan Emergency (1948-55) counterinsurgency (COIN) program
Chapter 69. Vietnam's Strategic Hamlet counterinsurgency (COIN) program
69.1. Mixed success of strategic hamlet program
Chapter 70. Military coup and assassination of Ngo Dinh Diem
70.1. Eruption of Buddhist-Catholic conflict (summer 1963)
70.2. Rise of antiwar activism and assassination of Diem (1963)
70.3. Summary: Kennedy's two acts of sabotage of the Vietnam War effort
70.4. Sabotage of the Strategic Hamlet program by Hanoi
Chapter 71. Why did the Strategic Hamlets program fail?
71.1. Ethnic and linguistic purity in Malaya and Vietnam
71.2. Ethnic and linguistic purity in Boer War
71.3. Counterinsurgency operations in Iraq War and Afghanistan War
71.4. Ethnic and linguistic purity issue in Afghanistan
Chapter 72. Lyndon Johnson's war (1964-1967)
72.1. Battle of Ia Drang (November 14-18, 1965)
72.2. Chaos in Saigon -- Buddhists vs Catholics
72.3. Was the war already lost in 1964?
72.4. Lyndon Johnson's 'limited war' escalation
72.5. Tet Offensive, January 1968
72.6. The My Lai Massacre (March 16, 1968)
72.7. Korean soldiers in Vietnam war
Chapter 73. Nguyen Van Thieu and the Second Republic of Vietnam (1967-1975)
73.1. Creation of the Second Republic (1967)
73.2. American policy mistakes in Vietnam
73.3. Problems facing Richard Nixon
73.4. Nixon's 'Vietnamization' policy
73.5. The Cambodia incursion
73.6. The Paris Peace Agreement - October 1972
73.7. The collapse of South Vietnam
73.8. Le Duan's victory speech (May 15, 1975)

Part XIV. Vietnam - Cambodia - China war (Third Indochina War, 1975-1989)
Chapter 74. Overview of the so-called 'Vietnam War'
Chapter 75. Richard Nixon's 'decent interval' policy
Chapter 76. North Vietnamese post-war massacres and boat people (1975-85)
Chapter 77. Pol Pot and the Cambodian 'Killing Fields' by the Khmer Rouge
77.1. Rise of Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia
77.2. Pol Pot's Killing Fields -- one of the worst genocides of the 20th century
77.3. War between Vietnamese and Khmer Rouge (supported by the Chinese Communists)
77.4. Cambodia invades Vietnam (1977)
77.5. Hanoi attacks the Chinese population in Vietnam (1978)
77.6. Collapse of Vietnam's economy (1978)
77.7. History of China and Russia wars and border conflicts
77.8. Vietnam invades Cambodia
77.9. China invades Vietnam (1979-89)
77.10. Le Duan dies and Vietnam opens its markets - Doi Moi (1986)

Part XV. References lists
Chapter 78. Reference list of names for Vietnam
Chapter 79. Reference list of Vietnam's dynasties
Chapter 80. Reference list of 54 Vietnamese Ethnic Groups
80.1. Eight categories of Vietnamese ethnic groups
80.2. Alphabetical list of Vietnam's 54 ethnic groups
Chapter 81. Reference list of China's dynasties

Part XVI. Histories of Vietnam's neighbors
Chapter 82. History of Philippines
82.1. China's history with the Philippines
82.2. Ancient history of the Philippines
82.3. Philippines Spanish colonial period (1521-1898)
82.4. Philippines under American control (1898-1946) and Japanese occupation (1941-45)
82.5. Modern generational history of the Philippines republic
Chapter 83. Brief generational history of Cambodia
Chapter 84. Brief generational history of Thailand
Chapter 85. Brief generational history of Myanmar (Burma)

Part XVII. The End
Chapter 86. About John J. Xenakis
86.1. Acknowledgments

Part XVIII. Footnotes / References





KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Vietnam, Buddhism, Vietnam War,
India, Hinduism, Cambodia, Laos, China,
Confucianism, Daoism, France, French Indochina,
Vietnam Villages, Doi Moi, Le Duan, Ho Chi Minh,
Boer War, Malaya Emergency, Strategic Hamlets,
John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
(03-22-2021, 09:37 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 22-Mar-2021 World View: Blacks and White Asians

tim Wrote:>   I remember when not that long ago the Left was claiming that
>   Asians were not "people of color" and are actually "white".

>   Cue a mentally ill white man murdering Asian women and the Left no
>   longer claims that Asians are "white", but are now regularly
>   victims of "white supremacy".

>   https://reason.com/volokh/2020/11/16/sch...-of-color/

>   https://www.nationalreview.com/news/sf-s...get-ahead/

>   https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volo...ame-white/

Thank you for posting those article links.

The NIH article that I referenced in my previous message, which NIH
posted in January of this year, makes it clear that anti-Asian hate
crimes are overwhelmingly perpetrated by blacks.  The NIH article
gives two reasons: that blacks are resentful of the economic success
of Asians, and that blacks feel that they are in competition with
Asians for resources, since Asians are another "minority."

The articles you've posted make it clear that both of these reasons
are highly prevalent.  One San Francisco school board member refers to
Asians as "house ni--ers" because she wants to "combat anti-black
racism."  I guess she feels that the anti-Asian racism is the best way
to combat anti-black racism.

One of the articles says "Asians have become white," which is likely
"to create nasty, corrosive, sometimes fatal battles over which racial
groups get the spoils."

So the issue of anti-Asian hate groups is really about black
resentment of Asians' success, and about competition among minority
groups (blacks and Asians) for resources.

Many white people appalled at the prospect of one of their offspring marrying a black person have far fewer qualms about their beloved son or daughter marrying and having children by an Asian or Asian-American. Very pale skin is commonplace among Koreans, Japanese, and Chinese.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
** 23-Mar-2021 World View: Pale skin

(03-23-2021, 06:39 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Many white people appalled at the prospect of one of their
> offspring marrying a black person have far fewer qualms about
> their beloved son or daughter marrying and having children by an
> Asian or Asian-American. Very pale skin is commonplace among
> Koreans, Japanese, and Chinese.

My conversations with people I've known over the years certainly
confirm what you've written. The other issue is that, even among
blacks, light-skinned blacks are considered better looking to one
another than dark-skinned blacks, as shown by the number of African
women who go through horrific skin bleaching processes. However, many
Americans, including Asians, also resort to skin-lightening, which
adds to what you've written.

https://www.byrdie.com/skin-bleaching

https://www.webmd.com/beauty/skin-lightening-products

https://www.vogue.com/article/skin-light...uty-market
Reply


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