Let's make fun of Trump, bash him, etc. while we can!

[pbrower2a]

(04-14-2019, 10:14 AM)David Horn Wrote: Let's agree on a few things that make polling particularly hard at the moment:

• The electorate is divided in more ways than pro-Trump and anti-Trump.  The true believers in both the pro and anti camps are not as great in number as the pro and anti polling numbers suggest.  I suspect that a large percentage of the respondents are just angry, and support or oppose Trump as a way to make a point -- but little else.
  
• The center of the electorate hates Trump's persona but is willing to overlook that if it benefits them personally.  If the economy goes South or healthcare is dismantled, all bets are off.
  
• There will be an ever increasing level of Trump fatigue, because that effect is already occurring.  He's just more than most people can bear over the long haul, and that will drive down his fringe support.  They may not support the Dems, but they may very well stay home.
  

So what, if anything, does this portend?  It's too early to tell, but the Trump will win again crowd may wish to take a breath.

I have seen disapproval levels for President Trump so high, and see a ceiling of just above 50% of the popular vote for the Democratic nominee (the electorate is so severely polarized) that there will be a significant vote for a conservative nominee as an Independent or Third Party alternative.

At this point I would predict a range between a mirror image of the 1980 election, with the Democrat winning just over 50% of the popular vote and Trump getting just over 41% of the popular vote and the result of the 1992 Presidential election, wherein Clinton got about 375 electoral voters against a President against whom Americans had fatigue.

I am accustomed to seeing close elections, and we have not seen a 400-electoral vote election involving a Democratic winner since LBJ in 1964. We are in strange political territory in part due to Donald Trump.