Presidential election, 2016

[FLBones]

This election took me by surprise. I voted for Trump but wasn't expecting him to win at all. I was especially surprised with PA, WI, and MI. They were all showing in favor of Clinton though by not a far range. But of course this is a 4T. FL and NC were easy grabs for Trump. 2020 will be crazy too but not as bad. There's already talks about potential candidates.

Due to the natural business cycle, there will probably be a recession by 2018. Unemployment is probably going to begin to rise steadily next year. We've reached the end point of this current business cycle. However, as I've said before, the economy will be transformed and the economy will boom again in the 2020s.

[Eric the Green]

(11-09-2016, 06:10 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(11-09-2016, 04:53 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(11-09-2016, 04:34 PM)Marypoza Wrote: The peckerwoods have spoken 

And the Negros what have jobs, and the Latinos what were born here, and all the other deplorables.





Michael Moore might be an obese libtard fool, but even a blind hog finds an acorn every now and then.

-- & a broken clock is right 2x a day

Michael Moore is right almost all day, and he's right about this. Trump was able to appeal to people in the midwest who feel economically left out by the high tech diverse world on the coasts. Polls have shown that they are not happy folks. Is it all about how they feel insulted, or is it more substantial than that? Maybe some combination? But I heard what Trump said to them and can feel how it resonates. His empty promises were believed, and I don't know to what extent these people will stick with him when his programs fail.

Moore called WI, MI, OH and PA "the Brexit" states. He was a better prophet than I on this.

If he really feels the need to help these people, then he will need more than Pence and Ryan and their trickle-down economics and his trade wars. He will have to convince them and get crossover votes from Democrats to do expensive "socialist" programs.

[Eric the Green]

(11-09-2016, 07:52 PM)FLBones Wrote: This election took me by surprise. I voted for Trump but wasn't expecting him to win at all. I was especially surprised with PA, WI, and MI. They were all showing in favor of Clinton though by not a far range. But of course this is a 4T. FL and NC were easy grabs for Trump. 2020 will be crazy too but not as bad. There's already talks about potential candidates.

Due to the natural business cycle, there will probably be a recession by 2018. Unemployment is probably going to begin to rise steadily next year. We've reached the end point of this current business cycle. However, as I've said before, the economy will be transformed and the economy will boom again in the 2020s.

Yes indeed, that's all possible. It's what I predicted up until Nov.8. But now I'm not so sure. I think a greater recession is possible now. And the boom, if it comes, will be dominated by the unleashed fossil fuel industry, instead of by green energy. This will not be a transformation of the economy, but a throwback to before the late 1960s, and it will pollute the planet. The effects of this short-term boom will be felt for generations to come.

[playwrite]

(11-09-2016, 07:50 PM)Danilynn Wrote: This election, because of the Supreme Court issue, was THE SINGLE most important election of the last decade.

I don't want the second amendment gutted, without it the other 9 are in serious jeopardy from the loons I have seen rioting over this election. Guess what snowflake, half of America felt just like you all apparently feel  (in 2008 &2012) without babbling and bawling in youtube videos or rioting because we didn't win. We dealt with it, bitched when applicable and did everything possible to put someone who felt like we did that the book "1984" was meant as a warning not an instructional manual.

Kinser and I, both warned and told all ya'll a year ago. a full blinking year ago, that President Elect Donald J. Trump was gonna do just what he did last night. You can only shove so much illogical crap down our throats here in "rural bitter clinger deplorable" flyover country so long before we get fed up with the lunacy and fight back. And fight back hard.

Guess what, Gen X is grown up and before 2024 we WILL TAKE the majority regardless of party affiliation in the house and senate. And we are a catalyst for change. We are ruthless and if we can't fix, we will watch it burn to re-build it.

Time to get onboard the Trump Train and lend a hand to making our country run right and not on acid fumes from Woodstock or sit back and watch us obliterate it. Cause either way, gen x is pissed, and we will fix it.

In a year, maybe it will take two, I'm not sure if its going to more funny or sad, when you pathetic wake up to being had by the Orange Anus Clown.  Will it be a decline in jobs and wages when you were promised 4 million new jobs?  Will it be when your health insurance premium growth goes back to double digit increase EVERY year?  Or, will it be when you watch a family or friend die from a "pre-condition" because they couldn't afford medication without insurance?  Or maybe it will be when you find out your own junk insurance isn't worth anything for your own illness or accident?  Maybe it will be realizing that your tax break gets you an extra 6-pac every other month while Trump's family and financial buddies rip off billions, and the resulting deficits give the Rightees the power to gut YOUR Social Security and Medicare, and you realize you will have to work until you drop dead.

But maybe you'll get lucky, and stay as blissfully ignorant as you are today, still letting Faux News do your 'thinking' for you.  Because being able to clutch your guns isn't going to do a damn thing for the world of hurt that's getting ready to come down the road to rip your economic well-being its very own orange anus. On the other hand, if your brain does start some independent functioning, and you begin to grasp how much you've been "Trump trained," at least you have one way to put yourself out of misery.

Let's talk in a year or two.  You own this.

[Dan '82]

[Marypoza]

(11-09-2016, 08:12 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-09-2016, 06:10 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(11-09-2016, 04:53 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(11-09-2016, 04:34 PM)Marypoza Wrote: The peckerwoods have spoken 

And the Negros what have jobs, and the Latinos what were born here, and all the other deplorables.





Michael Moore might be an obese libtard fool, but even a blind hog finds an acorn every now and then.

-- & a broken clock is right 2x a day

Michael Moore is right almost all day, and he's right about this. Trump was able to appeal to people in the midwest who feel economically left out by the high tech diverse world on the coasts. Polls have shown that they are not happy folks. Is it all about how they feel insulted, or is it more substantial than that? Maybe some combination? But I heard what Trump said to them and can feel how it resonates. His empty promises were believed, and I don't know to what extent these people will stick with him when his programs fail.

Moore called WI, MI, OH and PA "the Brexit" states. He was a better prophet than I on this.

If he really feels the need to help these people, then he will need more than Pence and Ryan and their trickle-down economics and his trade wars. He will have to convince them and get crossover votes from Democrats to do expensive "socialist" programs.

-- l guess we'll see

[Warren Dew]

(11-09-2016, 06:49 PM)taramarie Wrote: Someone posted this. What are your thoughts?

The Supreme Court will be dominated by conservative justices for a generation.

- Yes if Kennedy retires or Trump wins a second term, as is likely.

Same-sex marriage will likely be outlawed on a national level.

- No since it would take a constitutional amendment.

A woman's right to choose will end.

- No, not even if Roe v. Wade is overturned, which is unlikely since the Chief Justice said he'd uphold it.  If it's overturned, states will make their own choices, so abortion will be banned in some states and permitted in others.

Social Security will be cut. Or even eliminated.

- This is going to happen eventually anyway because the money will run out.  Whether it can be cut on purpose to sustainable levels depends on how much pull Ryan has - and if Trump is smart, it won't happen until after the 2020 election.

The rich will get more tax breaks.

- Billionaires already pay no taxes.  That won't change.

Medicare will be cut or repealed.

- It might be cut.  It won't be repealed.

Obamacare will be repealed.

- Outright repeal is still unlikely since it can be filibustered; however, Obamacare is collapsing financially, so it will probably be cut beyond recognition.

We are likely to head into a recession, possibly a depression.

- Doubtful in my opinion.  There may be a recession if enough illegal immigrants are deported, but that will only hurt the billionaiires as median wages will rise as deportations outpace the fall in GDP.

There will be no action on climate change.

- No substantive action at the federal level, yes.  But that was likely true anyway.

Our international relationships will be destroyed.

- No.  People deal with us because we are the most powerful nation in the world, not because they like us.  That won't change.

NATO will be crippled or disbanded.

- Unlikely.  Congress understands the importance of NATO even if Trump doesn't.

Oil drilling, fracking, and pipelines will get tax benefits and govt subsidies.

- No new subsidies will be passed.  Regulations may be relaxed.  The keystone pipeline will be approved.

We are likely to end up in a war with Iran.

- I don't think so, but it depends mostly on how irrational Iran is.

We might see the end of the free press.

- No.  Citizen's United guarantees a free press and it won't be reversed.

And, because this man believes in revenge, there may be mass incarcerations.

- No.  Trump won't pursue mass prosecutions, and federal law enforcement doesn't have the manpower anyway.

If you're not terrified, you haven't been paying attention.

- If you're not relieved, you haven't been paying attention.

[Galen]

(11-10-2016, 12:18 AM)taramarie Wrote: Ok thank you for your thoughts, Warren.

He did get a pretty reasonable likely case scenario.  It is really going to depend on when and how bad the next downturn is.

[Galen]

(11-09-2016, 07:50 PM)Danilynn Wrote: Guess what, Gen X is grown up and before 2024 we WILL TAKE the majority regardless of party affiliation in the house and senate. And we are a catalyst for change. We are ruthless and if we can't fix, we will watch it burn to re-build it.

You left out the part where Xers have little sympathy or patience for the snowflakes that are busy rioting.  Danilynn it would be best to follow the link and read the entire article since the irony will not be lost on you.  Fortunately it seems to be localized to Millies in college who believe in the SJW bullshit.  Millies in the real world tend to be saner.

[Odin]

(11-09-2016, 09:15 PM)Dan Wrote:

Sometimes I hate being right.

[gabrielle]

(11-09-2016, 08:01 AM)Odin Wrote: I've never been so ashamed of being a working class white man than right now. WTF just happened?

I'm even more ashamed to be a white woman.

The real "shy Trump" vote: how 53% of white women pushed him to victory

[Mikebert]

The election outcome has some consequences for the generational cycle. Recently I've been learning about another aligned cycle, Turchin's secular cycle, as outlineed in his books Secular Cycles and Ages of Discord. In pre-industrial times secular cycle were linked to population cycles.  Each cycle was associated with a cycle in economic inequality with inequality paralleling population. The cause was that land was fixed, and this determined the demand for farm labor.  Labor supply grew with population. So once all the land had been cleared, further population growth depressed real wages, resulting in rising inequality. Secular cycles since the end of the 15th century (i.e. the period cover by S&H) have spanned two saecula. 

Ages of Discord is about applying the secular cycle to an industrial nation--America.  I read part of it in mansucript in 2014 and it stimulated my thinking.  I learned how to do secular cycle theory and now am familar with this cycle two.  One of the key advantages of the secular cycle is it is an empirical cycle, unlike the saeculum which is a matter of opinion.  This makes it like the 19th century K-cycle.  A plot of wholesale prices shows the cycle. Thus, K-cycle theorists, whether they be Red or Blue, will agree on the 19th century date, because they both can consult a plot of wholesale prices.  The saeculum depends on how you draw turnings, generations fans will draw truning for other countires or for the US since 1984 differently, partly based on thie politics. Although we are supposedly talking about the same things we percieve different things, which makes it a not very useful concept.

You can't really learn anything if you can't agree on whether the mammal you are looking is an elk or a bison.

So I have spend years trying to come up with a proxy for the saeculum that is empirical. That is take available data, some some calculations and produce an "oscillator" that lets you graph our the saeculum.  I appear to have finally found one. It comes from a model for something called a "political stress indicator" (psi), that is basically a function of inequality.  Psi was invented by Goldstone in the early 1990's as part of his Demographic-Structural Theory (DST) for periodic state breakdown, and used it to explain things like the English and French Revolutions, the Russian Revoltuion, and I think an event in the Ottoman Empire.  All of these in agrarian times.

Turchin uses DST in his models for what causes secular cycles. In Ages of Discord he develops the secular cycle concept for the US.  And he gives an equation for psi. 



If you include slavery in your inequality calculation and then used the equations Turchin provides to calculate psi directly from inequality you get the result I show in the Turchin secular cycle thread.  It shows psi rising and falling with peaks in 1780-4, 1865, and 1929.  Look familar?  They all occur in 4Ts, typically closer to the beginning of them.  And what is psi doing now?  it is rising fast, but has not yet peaked because inequality is still rising.

According to secular cycle theory, inequality should stop rising and start falling at some point.  And around that time or shortly after there will be a peak in psi.  At that point we should be early 4T.  That point is still in the future. 

This implies early 4T in around 2020 (at the earliest).

In previous work I had noted a correspondence between critical elections and early 4Ts.  For example the critical election of 1860 was the actual crisis trigger for the Civil War 4T.  Daniel Elazar mapps out a generational concept of political cycles that incoprates Schlesingers liberal/conservative eras and the concent of critical elections.  He goes back to colonial times and sees the first Continential Congress in 1774 as equivlaent to a critical election.  This Congress was called in response to the British respond to the 1773 Boston Tea Party, which was the trigger for the Revoltuionary 4T.  And the 1932 critical election is considered the regeneracy for the last 4T.  All early 4T events.

Based on my stock market cycle work, I had initially forecasted (in 2000) the 4T start for in the near future and so naturally thought of 2001 as the 4T start.  One I had read about political cycles, I hypthesized if 2001 was right we should see two things: (1) the start of K-winter (this is an empirical indicator for this--no opinion involved) and (2) 2000 has to be a critical election (i.e. what Karl Rove thought) which would be confirmed by a Republican victory in 2008.  Didn't happen, winter stubbornly failed to appear, and the GOP lost in 2008, so that put 2001 into the dumpster.

So now I considered 2008 as the 4T start.  Once again we need the same two things.  K-winter DID begin in 2007.  I confirmed this in 2010 (http://www.safehaven.com/article/16716/s...may-2010).  Confirmation would be a Democratic victory in 2016.  Right up until Tuesday evening I fellt confident in my 2008 date for the 4T, then Trump won and that throws out 2008 as a critical election.  But now I have the psi indicator that says early 4T in the early 2020s (at the earliest).  Only the K-cycle proxy supports the 2008 date, the other two say not.  So 2008 goes into the dumpster.  So now we have to consider a possible 2016 start to be confirmed by (1) GOP wining a third term in 2024 and (2) a peak in psi around 2020.

I think you can see the problem here.  I keep pushing back the 4T start date as what should happen based on past cycles fails to happen, over and over again.  This is what you are supposed to do, change the theory to fit the facts, not try to "interpret" the facts to fit your theory.  The first approach is science, the second is ideology.

A 2016 4T start implies a 32 year 3T following an 18-year 1T and a 20 year 2T.  A 3T this long destroys the theory.  So one would be inclined to reject it.  But what is the point of the generational theory? When S&H wrote Generations they referred to it as a history of the future, and argued that in thirty years time we will know whether it works not.  S&H were not much into testable predictions.  But they made one.  The crisis of 2020.  Interestly Turchin also forecasts a crisis fof 2020.  This is based on his fathers and sons cycle, which is a generational cycle that runs independently of the longer secular cycle.  He models both in Ages of Discord.

It turns out Turchin's fathers and sons cycle are S&H generational cycles.  He predicts a peak in "sociopolitical instability" around 2020.  This is the frequency of violent social unrest events that lead to at least one death. So it is am empirical measure.  What S&H mean by crisis of 2020 is unclear. 

Turchin's dataset shows rising instability suggestive of a coming peak in 2020.  But almost all of the recent events are rampage killings.  For example there were many events of social unrest this year, but only two deaths.  These two are completely dwarfed by the many of mass killings that have killed over a hundred people.  So Turchin's indicator for this year would be dominanted by rampage events.  The problem is that this measure isn't really empirical in a useful way.  A liberal might agree that these events consitute sociopolitical instability (i.e. instability that is meaningful in that should generate a political response) but a conservative would not--unless the shooter is Muslim.  In other words a mass shooting carried out by a non-Muslim is crime (i.e. background noise) while a mass shooting carried out by a Muslim is Islamic terrorism, and can then be linked to much more numerious such events in Europe and the Middle East.  In other words the same data point is not seen as the same thing by the two observers, making it not empirical.

In contrast, a riot that ends up with a dozen dead will be seen as a signficant event of sociopolitical instability by both liberals and conservatives.  Hence it is an empirical datapoint.  Something like the Oklahoma city bombing would also qualify.  But if you focus on just these kinds of events there is less of it now than there was back in the 1990's.  So I am saying that there is no reason to beleive that there will be any meaningful rise in the sort of sociopolitical violence on which both liberals and conservatives can agree.  That is, there will be no crisis of 2020, except for the crisis that exists in your mind.  I'm sure we will all see a crisis in 2020, but when you look at it it will be a case of liberals looking and saying elk!, and the conservatives saying no, bison! This disagreement will be good evidence that there will be no there there.

2020 will be 30 years, and when the crisis fails to appear, the S&H saeculum as they definine it will have been invalidated. The model has failed every test thus far.  People even now, can see a lot of 3Tish character to our present politics.  How much of the Trump-Clinton battle based on cultural elements. How many fiscal conservatives voted against Trump for the sexist, xenophobic, racist stuff he said, even though they perferred him on economics.  How many religious voters who detested Trump the man voted for him because of the Supreme Court and abortion. Did they spend much time talking about economics?  Or was it mostly poltical gotcha bullshit and culture/identity issues?  Was the 3T (culture wars) really over eight years ago?  Does that even feel right? Or was it really the same old tired bullshit, with nobody expects anything to change, regardless of who won?

[Anthony '58]

The fundies are gloating, claiming that they made the difference that propelled Trump to victory.

But if they did, I'm sure they would have voted against increasing the minimum wage, which was on the ballot on four states, and with absolute certainty, against legalizing the "recreational" use of marijuana, which was on the ballot in five, while they were voting for Trump.

Yet the fundies and their Social Darwinist allies took an 0-for-4 collar on the minimum wage, and went only 1-for-5 on pot (Maine now having been more-or-less certified as approving legalization).

[Dan '82]

Bill Clinton wanted to reach out more to working class whites but Hilary's campaign didn't take his advice:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/us/pol...itics&_r=0

Quote:And she ceded the white working-class voters who backed Mr. Clinton in 1992. Though she would never have won this demographic, her husband insisted that her campaign aides do more to try to cut into Mr. Trump’s support with these voters. They declined, reasoning that she was better off targeting college-educated suburban voters by hitting Mr. Trump on his temperament.

Quote:Early on, Mr. Clinton had pleaded with Robby Mook, Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, to do more outreach with working-class white and rural voters. But his advice fell on deaf ears.

[Anthony '58]

But what about working class blacks (and Latinos)?

I'm sure that plenty of the men who work in those glass factories in Toledo, those rubber plants in Akron, and those steel mills in Youngstown - just to cite one state - are black (along with some who are Latino).

[Eric the Green]

mikebert, I think we need to change our model of what unrest and response to inequality looks like in the USA. We live in a crisis time of unrest, and probably the regeneracy is occurring. People expect change, but the change people expect and hope for is reactionary. The problem for us in the USA who are liberals, is that the model of unrest for the USA is not like the French or English or Russian revolutions. It's more like Nazi Germany. People in the USA respond to economic stress by seeking to go backwards. Bullshit is the appropriate description of what Americans believe. Those in America who can still think are responding by pouring out into the streets. But the regeneracy appears to be the vast movement out in the breadbasket of deplorables who voted for Trump.

He says he will unify the country around him, but I don't see it happening. Unrest is going to grow from both sides. When Trump responds by putting the activists in jail or shooting them down, what violence will this spark? Are the people blocking the pipeline a foretaste of things to come? Do the anti-deplorables have enough firepower to fight back? I don't know. But I don't see any other way to describe this other than as a 4T. The weather is going to collapse, the economy will plunge, and the country will continue to split. Trump will cause crisis after crisis until the nation breaks down. Foreign troubles will engulf us as well. The collapse will be real, even if the culture war mindset remains on the red side.

How violent it will be remains to be seen. But the 4T is upon us, and the record of 4Ts, recurring on a regular cycle, is violent. It is clear that this is not a revolution against the real elites; it is a battle between the people and two different mindsets. It will be more than a crisis in the mind, though, because total collapse will be real and all around us. And the response by the people to it will be state violence directed against the liberals. And the liberal side will lash out against the state. I don't know if the blue side is ready for secession yet, but it's the only viable answer now. The coasts should separate from the flyover breadbasket of deplorables. But I don't know if we can defend ourselves, or how much of the state we can appropriate to do it.

The idiots like Galen who believe our problem is SJWs are in power now. What they do with it will surely be called a crisis. Without social justice, no civil society can survive.

[Anthony '58]

That's not what Glenn Beck said yesterday on his radio show. He claimed that the 2016 election had the highest evangelical turnout in Presidential election history - mind you, without offering any source of this data to support his claim.

[Eric the Green]

(11-09-2016, 06:49 PM)taramarie Wrote: Someone posted this. What are your thoughts?

This is a good list.

Quote:"Here's what we are going to lose:

The Supreme Court will be dominated by conservative justices for a generation.

So it appears. It's going to take a mind adjustment to realize that our goals are gone.

Quote:Same-sex marriage will likely be outlawed on a national level.

Not sure about this; it depends on how many appointments Trump gets. The old conservative court made it legal, so one replacement for Scalia will not change the law.

Quote:A woman's right to choose will end.

Not sure; again it depends whether Ginsberg and/or Breier resign, and whether Trump is re-elected. One new right-wing justice will not be enough to reverse Rowe v Wade, I would think, since it hasn't been reversed already. But we'll see. It's quite possible. It has already been eliminated in flyover country, so those who want abortions will have to relocate anyway.

Quote:Social Security will be cut. Or even eliminated.

Doubtful; it could pass the House, but where it goes from there I'm not sure. But since the payroll tax won't be raised, it will run out of money, depending again on how long the deplorables remain in power.

Quote:The rich will get more tax breaks.

Guaranteed. The people voted for an oligarchy as the solution to oligarchy.

Quote:Medicare will be cut or repealed.

Obamacare will be repealed.

Both of these are quite likely, though not right away. Obamacare first, of course. But Medicare is running out of money unless higher taxes are imposed. That is not likely to happen unless the Republicans are thrown out in the 2020s, assuming elections are still viable.

Quote:We are likely to head into a recession, possibly a depression.

Quite likely. Dodd-Frank may be repealed, and if so, there's no protection from it at all.

Quote:There will be no action on climate change.

Correct, and Warren is incorrect that there would not have been any action anyway. Obama's rules were in effect or coming into effect if Hillary had been elected. Now these are gone, and the Paris agreement is no more. War on the environment has been declared, and we will all lose.

Quote:Our international relationships will be destroyed.

Quite likely.

Quote:NATO will be crippled or disbanded.

Quite likely, especially since more Brexits and Trumps are likely in Europe too.

Quote:Oil drilling, fracking, and pipelines will get tax benefits and govt subsidies.

No doubt.

Quote:We are likely to end up in a war with Iran.

Very possible, since Trump pledged to tear up the Iran Deal, which means Iran will get nucs. What will the Trumpsters do about what they created?

Quote:We might see the end of the free press.

Very likely, although the people will not believe it, and just believe what Trump says.

Quote:And, because this man believes in revenge, there may be mass incarcerations.

Very likely.

Quote:Because ...

There will be no grownups in the room.

The coup is complete. America is over.

We are moving rapidly in that direction. It will take time for the transition to be complete. Will we still have free elections, and will enough people wake up to flip the upper midwest states and florida back? Will this happen in time to throw Trump out? Will people rise up in the 2020s and throw it out?

Quote:Now you know what Germany felt like in 1932.

Not yet, but soon.

Quote:If you're not terrified, you haven't been paying attention."

correct

[Anthony '58]

Speaking of Italians, Irish etc.:

Trump won Staten Island with 57% to Hillary's 40% - after Obama had narrowly won the Island in 2012!

[Eric the Green]

(11-10-2016, 11:05 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(11-10-2016, 11:01 AM)Anthony Wrote: That's not what Glenn Beck said yesterday on his radio show.  He claimed that the 2016 election had the highest evangelical turnout in Presidential election history - mind you, without offering any source of this data to support his claim.

Right. However the Evangelical vote was split. Many went #NeverTrump + #NeverHillary. Fill in that blank accordingly.

Evangelicals who went #never Trump are miniscule, according to the election returns. Also small are the number of folks who voted for Hillary because they hated Trump's xenophobia, sexual predation, etc, but liked his economics. If they liked Trump's economics, they voted for him; xenophobia notwithstanding.

No, the deplorables are deplorable on all levels and in all shades, economic and cultural, and they voted accordingly.