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Generational Dynamics World View
(05-08-2017, 08:02 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > You have yet to state credible arguments for the following points:

> 1.) That chinese strategic thinking is based on hiding their
> military capabilities. When in fact they have tended to brandish
> and proclaim their capabilities and advances in military
> tech.

That's my point. That instead of hiding their military capabilities
as Sun Tzu and Deng Xiaoping tell them to do, the geopolitical
situation is forcing them to proclaim their capabilities.

(05-08-2017, 08:02 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > 2.) That either Debkafile or the Epoch Times are reliable sources
> of information regarding the world strategic scene. In fact those
> two sites along with worldnetdaily are generally regarded as the
> military-intelligence community equivalent of tabloid
> news.

I haven't used Epoch Times as a source since 2006, and then I
described it as a "dissident newspaper."

When I use Debka as a source, unless what they say is supported by
other sources, I say that they sometimes get things wrong.

(05-08-2017, 08:02 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > 3.) That a US invasion of North Korea to destroy their missile
> program either carried on our own (with south korea assisting) or
> in coordination with a Chinese invasion from the North; would be a
> bad thing for world peace.

So?

(05-08-2017, 08:02 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > 4.) That Trump implementing his campaign promises regarding
> military/diplomatic/strategic policy including a likely repeal of
> PDD-60 (which states that the US would not launch a nuclear first
> strike and only counterattack after an enemy first strike); would
> be a bad thing for world peace.

So?

You're using your usual technique of hallucinating things that I said
and then claiming that your hallucinations are wrong.
Reply
*** 14-May-17 World View -- China launches 'One Belt One Road', raising objections and violent protests

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • China forum launches the decades-long 'One Belt One Road' project
  • Laborers on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) shot dead on Saturday

****
**** China forum launches the decades-long 'One Belt One Road' project
****


[Image: g170513b.gif]
China's 'One Belt One Road' project will include overland and maritime trade routes between China and Europe (CNN)

On Sunday, 28 heads of state, 100 lower-level government officials,
and 1,200 delegates from 110 countries will attend China's "One Belt
One Road" (OBOR) forum in Beijing. It is also called the "Belt and
Road Initiative" (BRI) summit.

The romantic appeal behind the Belt and Road project is that it's a
modern day version of the ancient "Silk Road," a collection of trade
routes regularly used between 100 BC to 1400 AD by traders
carrying goods back and forth between China and Europe. The
name comes from the popularity of Chinese silk in the Roman
Empire.

However, as the map above shows, the new Silk Road is not simply
an overland route. The Belt and Road project consists of
two parts:
  • The Economic Belt is a collection of hugely ambitious
    land-based infrastructure projects, including a train line stretching
    from eastern China to London.
  • The Maritime Silk Road is a sea-based network of shipping lanes
    and port developments throughout the Pacific and Indian oceans to the
    Mediterranean Sea and Europe.

The OBOR includes infrastructure projects that have already been under
development since the 1990s. China plans to invest hundreds of
billions of dollars over the next 50 years or so to complete the
project.

Whether the project will ever be completed is, of course, open to
doubt. There's already been one large, spectacular failure. In 2009,
China invested $1.2 billion in Sri Lanka's Hambantota seaport. Sri
Lanka had expected to repay the debt through profits earned by the
port, but the slowdown in trade throughout the entire region in the
last few years has meant that Sri Lanka has been unable to repay the
debt, and now China has essentially taken over the port in lieu of
repayment of the debt, resulting in violent protests by Sri Lanka's
Buddhist monks and anti-government protesters.

Because the project is so expensive, so long-term, and so unrealistic,
many people are suspicious that China's motives are more complex. The
Sri Lanka port project shows what can happen -- China invests a lot of
money in an infrastructure project in a country, and thereby gains
political influence or sovereignty in the country, or even ownership
of the infrastructure. Even if the OBOR is never completed, a
successful outcome for China would be a strong economic and military
grip in countries throughout the region. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and CNN and China Daily and Time

Related Articles

****
**** Laborers on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) shot dead on Saturday
****


One part of the Belt and Road initiative is known as the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Over 10-20 years, at a cost of $46 billion, CPEC will supposedly build
a network of roads, railways and energy pipelines aiming to connect
western Chinese cities, starting from China's easternmost city Kashgar
in Xinjiang province, to the sea port in Gwadar on the Indian Ocean in
Balochistan province in southern Pakistan. It will have both economic
and military components. Power generation, transport, commerce, R&D
and the defense of Pakistan all will be increasingly tied to Chinese
investment, supplies and interests.

(The CNN map above does not depict the CPEC project. Nor does it
depict the "Caspian Trade Corridor" which is also part of OBOR.)

On Saturday, ten laborers working in southern Balochistan province on
the CPEC infrastructure were shot dead at close range. Pakistan's
marginalized Baloch ethnic group has been opposed to CPEC from the
beginning, as they see it as incorporating the worst of China's
investment practices.

As we reported in March,
some
Pakistani analysts concluded that China will charge Pakistan
exorbitant interest rates for the debt that it incurs. Balochs are
opposed because the project will result in an inflow of more than
600,000 Chinese people -- Chinese workers and their families --
diluting that Baloch population. Baloch activists claim that whatever
economic benefits the CPEC project will bring to Pakistan, most of the
benefits will go to the favored Punjab province. The CPEC project
will use up all of Balochistan's natural resources, and the Baloch
people will get nothing from it.

The killing of CPEC workers on Saturday highlights the massive
security concerns that will accompany the project. There will be
600,000 Chinese workers entering Pakistan every year, and they will be
targets of jihadist terror groups. These will include Afghan Uzbeks
affiliated with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), and the
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).

India is boycotting Sunday's forum in China to express its objections
to the CPEC plan, since it includes massive infrastructure projects in
Pakistan-controlled Kashmir that will affect India-controlled Kashmir
as well. According to an Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman, "The
international community is well aware of India’s position. No country
can accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and
territorial integrity." Reuters and The Nation (Pakistan) and The Hindu and India Today

Related Articles



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, One Belt One Road, OBOR,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Silk Road, Economic Belt,
Maritime Silk Road, Sri Lanka, Hambantota seaport,
Pakistan, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC,
Caspian Trade Corridor, Gwadar, Balochistan, India, Kashmir,
East Turkestan Islamic Movement, ETIM,
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
Really excellent discussion of the "one belt, one road" initiative and how it fits into the overall development of the geopolitical situation in Eurasia here:

http://stories.cnas.org/the-return-of-ma...y-response

Also includes a couple sections on appropriate and inappropriate US poliicy responses.
Reply
*** 15-May-17 World View -- North Korea sends a message with a medium range ballistic missile test

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • North Korea launches medium-range ballistic missile
  • North Korean missile launch sends a message to everyone

****
**** North Korea launches medium-range ballistic missile
****


[Image: g170514b.jpg]
South Koreans in a Seoul railway station on Sunday morning watch North Korea's ballistic missile test (AP)

North Korea's state media says that the country launched a
medium-range ballistic missile on Sunday, capable of carrying a
nuclear warhead.

According to state media, the child dictator Kim Jong-un personally
"guided the test-fire," and bragged about its nuclear prowess:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Pyongyang, May 15 (KCNA) -- A test-fire of new
> ground-to-ground medium long-range strategic ballistic rocket
> Hwasong-12 was successfully carried out on Sunday by scientists
> and technicians in the field of rocket research, who are bravely
> advancing toward a new goal to be proud of in the world, true to
> the far-sighted idea of Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers'
> Party of Korea, chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the
> DPRK and supreme commander of the Korean People's Army, for
> building a nuclear power.
>
> Kim Jong Un guided the test-fire on the spot. ...
>
> He declared that the DPRK is a nuclear power worthy of the name
> whether someone recognizes it or not. He stressed the DPRK will
> keep strict control over those engaging themselves in nuclear
> blackmail with its nuclear deterrence which has been unimaginably
> and rapidly developed."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

The missile traveled almost 500 miles in 30 minutes, and landed in the
Sea of Japan, surrounded by the Korean peninsula, about 60 miles south
of Russia’s Vladivostok region and approximately 250 miles from Japan.

The missile was launched at the highest possible angle, so that it
would travel high into the air, but would limit the lateral distance,
and so it reached an altitude of about 1,300 miles. If it had been
fired at a standard trajectory, then it would have had a range of at
least 2,500 miles, meaning that it could have reached Russia and
Japan, and probably the US base at Guam.

Initial reports speculated that it had been an advanced KN-15 missile,
from a mobile launcher and with a solid-fuel engine. The mobile
launcher allows the missile to be hidden until minutes before launch,
and the solid-fuel engine allows it to be ready to launch immediately
at any time.

However, it's now believed that it was a KN-17 missile, a
single-stage, liquid-fueled missile. Tests with both the KN-15 and
KN-17 missiles provide experience and data for ongoing development of
an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could reach
Australia or the United States.

The United Nations Security Council will meet on Tuesday to discuss
the situation. They're expected to issue a statement condemning the
missile test, calling it "unacceptable," and threatening that if
there's another test then the Security Council will hold another
meeting. KCNA Watch and 38 North and Fox News and Reuters

Related Articles

****
**** North Korean missile launch sends a message to everyone
****


The timing of the missile launch on Sunday sends messages to officials
in various countries:
  • The launch occurred right in the middle of China's highly
    prestigious "One Belt One Road" forum in Beijing, attended by 1,200
    delegates from 110 countries, that we described yesterday.
    This was evidently a planned major insult to
    China's president Xi Jinping, who is preaching international harmony
    at the forum.

  • The test also sent a strong message to South Korea's new president
    Moon Jae-in, who took office only last week after an election campaign
    promising to develop closer ties with North Korea. Some South Koreans
    feared that he would be too soft on North Korea, but Moon dispelled
    those concerns by strongly condemning the test, calling it a "grave
    threat" to regional security and a clear violation of U.N. Security
    Council resolutions.

    Moon had hinted that the US deployment of the Terminal High Altitude
    Area Defense (THAAD) might be reversed, acceding to China's wishes.
    However, the missile test throws those suggestions into doubt.

  • Australia's foreign minister Julie Bishop said, "Clearly the
    aspiration of the North Korean regime is to develop an
    intercontinental ballistic missile that has the capability of dumping
    a nuclear payload on the US."

  • Russia, a long-time ally of North Korea, said through military
    officials quoted by the Interfax news agency that the missile posed no
    danger to Russian territory.

North Korea's biggest message of all is that development of a nuclear
weapons and ballistic missiles is going to continue, at least until
North Korea has an intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach
Los Angeles, and that it will do so despite the wishes of China or any
other country.. CNN and Korea Times and Yonhap (Seoul) and The Australian and LA Times

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Russia, Japan, KN-15, KN-17, China, One Belt One Road, Xi Jinping,
South Korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD,
Moon Jae-in, Australia, Julie Bishop

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
(05-12-2017, 10:08 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 13-May-17 World View -- Canada receives record numbers of Mexican asylum seekers after Trudeau's welcome tweet

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • MSF: Central American refugees entering Mexico are regularly beaten and tortured
  • Canada receives record numbers of Mexican asylum seekers after Trudeau's welcome tweet

****
**** MSF: Central American refugees entering Mexico are regularly beaten and tortured
****


[Image: g170512b.jpg]
Migrants board 'La Bestia' (The Beast) in southern Mexico to travel to the US border.  (AP, 2014)

According to a new report by Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans
Frontières - MSF) an estimated 500,000 migrants cross the border from
Central America into Mexico each year.  Many of these migrants are
fleeing violence in what MSF calls the Northern Triangle of Central
America (NCTA), consisting of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala.

However, their countries of origin aren't limited to those in Central
America.  In just a few days in September of last year, there was a
surge of almost 5,000 Haitian, African and Asian migrants entering by
Mexico's southern border.  None of these migrants requested permission
to stay in Mexico, as they all wanted to reach the United States.  The
huge sudden surge of migrants overwhelmed officials at US border
crossings in California.

Most migrants enter Mexico in the hope of continuing through Mexico to
the United States.  The MSF says that as they travel through Mexico,
they're often victimized by kidnapping, extortion, rape, assault,
torture and murder by criminal organizations, often with the tacit
approval of Mexican authorities.  68.3% of migrants and refugees
surveyed by MSF reported having been victims of violence on the
transit route to the United States.

In 2014, under pressure from the United States, Mexico instituted
increasingly harsh border-control measures in the form of Plan
Frontera Sur, a Mexican crackdown on border security funded in part by
the U.S.  This change in Mexico's policy has substantially increased
the likelihood that the refugees will face violence, since the
crackdown forces refugees to depend on human traffickers and travel on
underground routes operated with impunity by organized crime.

In February, during the first month of Donald Trump's administration,
Mexican officials met with US military officials to try to find common
ground on immigration and other issues.  The relationship between the
United States and Mexico has become strained after president Trump
vowed to build a wall between the two countries to keep out illegal
immigrants, drug dealers and criminals and make Mexico pay for it.
Details of the meeting were not released.

To resolve the humanitarian crisis, MSF calls on governments across
the region – mainly El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Canada,
and the US – to ensure better alternatives to detention and
deportation to countries of origin where they'll be once again subject
to violence.  These countries should increase their formal
resettlement and family reunification quotas.  Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières - MSF) and
Reuters (2-Feb) and AP (25-Sep-2016) and iPolitics (Canada)

Related Articles

****
**** Canada receives record numbers of Mexican asylum seekers after Trudeau's welcome tweet
****


Mexicans are seeking asylum in Canada at a rate four times greater
than in 2016.  The first three months of 2017 already saw more cases
recorded than in the entire year 2016.

One reason for the surge is president Trump's travel ban, announced in
January, which raised concern in refugees that they might be prevented
from entering the United States.  Instead of trying to cross the
border into the US, they get on a plane that takes them to the airport
in Vancouver, British Columbia, in Canada.

The second reason is that Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau
invited them in.  In 2016, Trudeau eliminated a visa requirement,
imposed in 2008, for Mexicans traveling to Canada.  The visa
requirement sharply reduced the number of migrants, until it was
lifted.

In addition, Trudeau decided to react to Trump's travel ban by
tweeting the following on January 28:

>        [indent]<QUOTE>"To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians
>        will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our
>        strength[1] #WelcomeToCanada"<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

Trudeau's tweet was followed by a picture of him greeting a refugee
family.  The two tweets garnered over a million likes and
half-a-million retweets,

The Canadian government has threatened to reinstate the visa
requirement, and has told the Mexican government that it will do so if
asylum claims continue to increase.  Canadian Broadcasting (16-Apr) and Daily Caller (17-Apr) and Canadian Broadcasting (3-Apr)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mexico, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala,
Northern Triangle of Central America, NCTA,
Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF, Doctors without Borders,
Plan Frontera Sur, Canada, Justin Trudeau

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum:    http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

Here's the reality on the ground here in California.

The Barrios peaked 10 - 15 years ago. Now, Millennials of all ethnic backgrounds but especially whites are moving into the Barrios in search of affordable housing. The Latinos are either moving back to Latin America or are doing as older whites often do ... moving to lower CoL areas and banking what they earned selling here. The supply of new illegals is getting lower all the time.
#ImpeachTrump
#ProsecuteTreason
#HUAC2.0
#RealNationalism
#NaziPunksFOff


Mark 13:22 - "For there shall rise false Christs and false prophets, and they shall give signs and wonders, to seduce, if possible, also the chosen."


Reply
(05-15-2017, 11:11 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > Here's the reality on the ground here in California.

> The Barrios peaked 10 - 15 years ago. Now, Millennials of all
> ethnic backgrounds but especially whites are moving into the
> Barrios in search of affordable housing. The Latinos are either
> moving back to Latin America or are doing as older whites often do
> ... moving to lower CoL areas and banking what they earned selling
> here. The supply of new illegals is getting lower all the
> time.

I've been told that older Mexican migrants in California are as
opposed to new migrants as the Yanquis are, since they don't want to
lose their jobs to new migrants. If older Mexicans are hostile to new
migrants, that would do a lot to discourage new migration.
Reply
*** 16-May-17 World View -- Final push to expel ISIS from Raqqa, Syria, to begin in June

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Syria's Bashar al-Assad accused of burning thousands of political opponents in crematorium
  • Final push to expel ISIS from Raqqa, Syria, to begin in June

****
**** Syria's Bashar al-Assad accused of burning thousands of political opponents in crematorium
****


[Image: g170515b.jpg]
The Yarmouk refugee camp for Palestinians, in Damascus, Syria, in 2014 (Getty)

By this time nothing should surprise us about the psychopathic
depravity of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. In 2014, a forensic
photographic nicknamed "Caesar" defected from al-Assad's regime with
tens of thousands of photos whom al-Assad had tortured using
electrocution, eye-gouging, rape, strangulation, starvation, and
beating on prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale.
Al-Assad was so pleased and proud of this torture that he made sure
each act was photographed.

In February, Amnesty International released a report based on
interviews with 84 people that thousands of peaceful demonstrators had
been brought to Saydnaya prison for the kind of extreme torture just
described. As many as 50 prisoners per day were taken out of their
cells and executed, with their bodies thrown into mass graves.

On Monday, the US State Dept. provided further insight into the
execution of prisoners at Saydnaya prison. Apparent al-Assad was
motivated by the concern that these huge mass graves might be
discovered and show him in an unfavorable light. And so, the State
Dept. says that in 2013 al-Assad took one of the buildings adjoining
the Saydnaya prison and turned it into a crematorium, so that the
bodies of the executed prisoners could be burnt to ashes, rather than
thrown into huge mass graves.

According to the State Dept:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The facts we’re presenting today are based on
> reporting from international and local nongovernmental
> organizations, press reporting, and also Intelligence Community
> assessments. The continued brutality of the Assad regime,
> including its use of chemical weapons, presents a clear threat to
> regional stability and security as well as to the national
> security interests of the United States and our allies. ...
>
> Moreover, the regime has also authorized the extrajudicial
> killings of thousands of detainees using mass hangings at the
> Saydnaya military prison. Saydnaya is a 45-minute drive outside of
> Damascus and is one of Syria’s largest and most secure prison
> complexes. Saydnaya is but one of many detention facilities where
> prisoners are being held and abused. ...
>
> The regime holds as many as 70 prisoners in Saydnaya in cells that
> have a five-person capacity. And according to multiple sources,
> the regime is responsible for killing as many as 50 detainees per
> day at Saydnaya. Credible sources have believed that many of the
> bodies have been disposed in mass graves. We now believe that the
> Syrian regime has installed a crematorium in the Saydnaya prison
> complex which could dispose of detainees’ remains with little
> evidence.
>
> Beginning in 2013, the Syrian regime modified a building within
> the Saydnaya complex to support what we believe is a crematorium,
> as shown in the photos that we have distributed to you. Although
> the regime’s many atrocities are well documented, we believe that
> the building of a crematorium is an effort to cover up the extent
> of mass murders taking place in Saydnaya prison."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

There is speculation that the State Dept released this information
at this time in order to put pressure on Russia to rein in
Bashar al-Assad from committing new atrocities.
US State Dept and Reuters

Related Articles

****
**** Final push to expel ISIS from Raqqa, Syria, to begin in June
****


Rojda Felat, commander of the Kurdish Women’s Protection Units (YPJ)
in Syria, which is part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the
“Euphrates Wrath Operation” to liberate Raqqa from ISIS, said that the
attack will be launched in June: "The attack on Raqqa will take place
in the beginning of the summer."

It's believed that there are almost 4,000 fighters from the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Raqqa, which is the
ISIS "caliphate" and major stronghold. The SDF is joining with the
elders of Raqqa's tribes to surrender:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We call upon all Syrians who joined the ranks of ISIS
> and those who carry arms, administrators or preachers, to
> surrender themselves to the nearest military base of the SDF to
> preserve his or her life and family, and the city from
> destruction. We are ready to provide all relief and humanitarian
> support to those who surrender within a maximum of ten
> days."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

The SDF consists mostly of Kurdish fighters from the Kurdish People’s
Protection Unit (YPG), along with a lesser number of fighters from the
Free Syrian Army (FSA). Once Raqqa is captured, the plan is to go
down the Euphrates Valley and completely destroy ISIS, which currently
controls about 35% of Syria.

The United States military has been gradually increasing its
involvement with the SDF, which it backs. It's believed that there are
about 700-1,000 US special forces troops in the area. Several hundred
are being sent mainly to protect the Kurds from Turkey's military.

Last week, the US military announced that it will move quickly to get
weapons, including small arms, mortars, heavy machine guns,
shoulder-fired weapons and ammunition, into the hands of the YPG Kurds
for use in fighting ISIS. The US considers the YPG to be the most
effective fighting force in Syria against ISIS.

Turkish officials are furious at this, since they consider arming the
Kurds to be an existential threat to Turkey. The Kurdistan Workers’
Party (PKK) has conducted numerous terrorist attacks within Turkey,
and has conducted an on-and-off civil war in Turkey for decades.

Turkey's president Tayyip Recep Erdogan will be visiting president
Donal Trump in Washington today (Tuesday), and Syria will be a major
topic on the agenda. ARA News (Syria) and Al Arabiya and Sputnik News (Moscow)

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Saydnaya prison,
Amnesty International, Turkey, Free Syrian Army, FSA,
Rojda Felat, Women’s Protection Units, YPJ,
Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Kurds, People's Protection Units, YPG,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Euphrates Wrath Operation, Raqqa, Euphrates Valley,
Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Tayyip Recep Erdogan

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
*** 17-May-17 World View -- Central African Republic violence threatens new spread of Ebola from Congo

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Christian vs Muslim violence continues to spread across Central African Republic
  • CAR refugees threaten to spread Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo

****
**** Christian vs Muslim violence continues to spread across Central African Republic
****


[Image: g170516b.jpg]
Hospital in Bangassou, Central African Republic, where civilians are fleeing violence (MSF)

The generational crisis civil war in Central African Republic (CAR)
has been going on since 2013, when nomadic mostly-Muslim herder tribes
form "Séléka" militias and began committing atrocities against
Christians, triggering revenge attacks by Christians who formed
"anti-Balaka" militias and began committing atrocities against
Muslims.

Since then, United Nations peacekeeping forces have been usually able
to keep the two sides apart within Bangui, the nation's capital. But
CAR is a huge country, and sectarian atrocities with Christian
anti-Balaka militias massacring and committing atrocities against
Muslim Séléka people, and vice-versa, has continued and grown across
the country, especially in rural areas that are completely out of
reach of UN peacekeeping forces.

In March, I reported on tribal violence in Bambari and Bria,
in the center of the country. What
was different about that situation is that the fault lines were more
ethnic than religious: farmer tribes and herder tribes are aligning
against each other, sometimes ignoring religion. New reports indicate
that violence in that region continues, despite efforts by UN
peacekeepers.

Now there are reports of major new and growing violence in and around
the town of Bangassou, a border town in southeastern CAR on the border
with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Armed anti-Balaka
militias attacked Muslim neighborhoods, killing dozens of civilians in
several villages.

According to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al
Hussein, violence is spreading and growing in rural areas in the
southeast, center and western portions of CAR:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Violence and rising tensions are spreading to areas
> of the Central African Republic that had previously been spared
> the kinds of terrifying violence seen in some other parts of the
> country – this is highly worrying and should set off loud alarm
> bells.
>
> The hard-earned relative calm in Bangui and some of the bigger
> towns in CAR risks being eclipsed by the descent of some rural
> areas into increasing sectarian violence, with defenseless
> civilians – as usual – paying the highest price."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

From the point of Generational Dynamics, none of this is surprising.
As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was
the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which
was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational
Crisis era, where a new crisis civil war has already started.

The United Nations officials hope that by sending a few hundred
peacekeepers here and there, they can get the entire country to go
back to the way they were in 2013, but that's not the way generational
crisis wars work. This war has to expend a great deal more violence
before it can end and, like every generational crisis war, will not
end until there's some kind of explosive genocidal climax that will be
remembered for decades, or even centuries. UN Office of Human Relations and Relief Web and Reuters and Anadolu

Related Articles

****
**** CAR refugees threaten to spread Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo
****


Thousands of families have been running from the violence in the
border town Bangassou in southeastern CAR, and fleeing into northern
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Concerns have been raised because
there is a new outbreak of the Ebola virus in a remote DRC region
about 250 km from the CAR border, and it's feared that some CAR
civilians might become sick and carry the virus back to CAR, where it
could spread rapidly.

As of Monday's situation report, the World Health Organization (WHO)
has identified 19 cases of Ebola in the northern region of the DRC,
with 3 deaths. The DRC strain is the deadliest known, more deadly
than the Ebola strain that spread through western Africa two years
ago. The WHO hopes that the lessons learned from the last epidemic
will be successfully used to prevent a new epidemic. Already,
emergency plans are being set up in airports to prevent the spread
from country to country.

This is the eighth outbreak of Ebola virus since it was discovered in
the DRC in 1976. Center for Infectious Disease Research (CIDRAP) and Independent (South Africa) and Vanguard (Nigeria)

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, CAR,
Bangui, Bambari, Bria, Bangassou, Séléka, anti-Balaka,
Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle, Ebola,
World Health Organization, WHO, Nigeria

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
*** 18-May-17 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan leaves empty-handed as his security forces attack protesters in Washington

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Washington shocked as Turkey's security forces attack peaceful protesters
  • Turkey's Erdogan leaves empty-handed from meeting with Trump

****
**** Washington shocked as Turkey's security forces attack peaceful protesters
****


[Image: g170517b.jpg]
Erdogan and Trump after their meeting on Tuesday (AP)

It's common to read about national security forces in other countries
bashing peaceful anti-government protesters, but it's a shock for it
to happen in Washington DC. But that's what happened on Tuesday
evening, when Turkey's security forces brutally attacked peaceful
protesters in from of the Turkish embassy.

The attacks occurred shortly after Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan met with president Donald Trump in the White House, and then
returned to the Turkish embassy.

Witnesses, backed by social media video, say that Erdogan's security
forces broke through DC police lines and attack protesters outside the
embassy carrying the flag of the Kurdish PYD party.

Some social media video shows Turkish officials dressed in suits
beating and punching people in the crowd and, in at least one case,
kicking out at a woman lying on the ground curled up to protect
herself.

The PYD is a left-wing Kurdish political party in Syria affiliated
with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a terrorist group that has
conducted numerous terrorist attacks in Turkey, and has conducted an
on-and-off civil war in Turkey for decades. There were 11 people
hurt, including on US police officer. Washington DC police called in
reinforcements and separated the two sides, making two arrests.

It's possible that the perpetrators of the attack cannot be prosecuted
because they have diplomatic immunity. However, some analysts say
that diplomatic immunity does not apply to the security detail
traveling with a foreign leader.

This is not the first such incident. In March of last year, Erdogan
was on his way to visit the Brookings Institute in Washington to give
a speech. While he was en route, Erdogan's security personnel
kicked both Turkish and Western journalists and protesters in front of
the Brookings building.

An even worse incident occurred in Ankara in December of last year,
when a member of Turkey's security forces shot and killed Russia's ambassador to Turkey.

The US State Dept issued this statement on Wednesday morning:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We are concerned by the violent incidents involving
> protestors and Turkish security personnel Tuesday
> evening. Violence is never an appropriate response to free speech,
> and we support the rights of people everywhere to free expression
> and peaceful protest.
>
> We are communicating our concern to the Turkish government in the
> strongest possible terms."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

NY Times and Times of Israel and US News and Foreign Policy (1-Apr-2016) and US State Dept.

Related Articles

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan leaves empty-handed from meeting with Trump
****


Turkey's media are putting a positive spin on the outcome of Tuesday's
meeting of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan with president
Donald Trump. They're emphasizing the friendly smiles and handshakes,
as well as the "new awakening" in relations between the two countries,
without focusing on the fact that Erdogan left the meeting
empty-handed.

Erdogan had two major agenda items for the meeting:
  • Last week, the US military announced that it would supply
    weapons to the Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG) in Syria, as
    they approach the final battle to recapture the city of Raqqa from the
    so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The weapons
    include small arms, mortars, heavy machine guns, shoulder-fired
    weapons and ammunition. Turkey says that the YPG are terrorists
    affiliated with the PKK, while the US military considers the YPG to be
    the most effective fighting force in Syria against ISIS. Erdogan had
    hoped to convince Trump to reverse the decision to arm the Kurds, but
    as far as is known, there was no such agreement.

  • Erdogan would like the US to extradite Fethullah Gulen back to
    Turkey, as they blame him for the failed coup in Turkey July 15 of
    last year. I've always considered the accusation fanciful, as Gulen
    is a 76-year-old political enemy of Erdogan, living in the Pocono
    Mountains in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania, as if Fethullah Gulen had
    directed the coup himself from his easy chair. There have been no
    reports that Trump has agreed to extradite Gulen.

However, Trump and Erdogan did agree that they should both "fight
terror."

The meeting between Trump and Erdogan lasted only 22 minutes,
suggesting that it might have been simply a preparatory meeting for
further negotiations in the future. VOA and Hurriyet (Turkey) and Daily Sabah (Turkey)

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
PYD, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Raqqa,
Brookings Institute, People's Protection Units, YPG,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Fethullah Gulen

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
(05-17-2017, 10:10 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 18-May-17 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan leaves empty-handed as his security forces attack protesters in Washington

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Washington shocked as Turkey's security forces attack peaceful protesters
  • Turkey's Erdogan leaves empty-handed from meeting with Trump

****
**** Washington shocked as Turkey's security forces attack peaceful protesters
****


[Image: g170517b.jpg]
Erdogan and Trump after their meeting on Tuesday (AP)

It's common to read about national security forces in other countries
bashing peaceful anti-government protesters, but it's a shock for it
to happen in Washington DC.  But that's what happened on Tuesday
evening, when Turkey's security forces brutally attacked peaceful
protesters in from of the Turkish embassy.

The attacks occurred shortly after Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan met with president Donald Trump in the White House, and then
returned to the Turkish embassy.

Witnesses, backed by social media video, say that Erdogan's security
forces broke through DC police lines and attack protesters outside the
embassy carrying the flag of the Kurdish PYD party.

Some social media video shows Turkish officials dressed in suits
beating and punching people in the crowd and, in at least one case,
kicking out at a woman lying on the ground curled up to protect
herself.

The PYD is a left-wing Kurdish political party in Syria affiliated
with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a terrorist group that has
conducted numerous terrorist attacks in Turkey, and has conducted an
on-and-off civil war in Turkey for decades.  There were 11 people
hurt, including on US police officer.  Washington DC police called in
reinforcements and separated the two sides, making two arrests.

It's possible that the perpetrators of the attack cannot be prosecuted
because they have diplomatic immunity.  However, some analysts say
that diplomatic immunity does not apply to the security detail
traveling with a foreign leader.

This is not the first such incident.  In March of last year, Erdogan
was on his way to visit the Brookings Institute in Washington to give
a speech.  While he was en route, Erdogan's security personnel
kicked both Turkish and Western journalists and protesters in front of
the Brookings building.

An even worse incident occurred in Ankara in December of last year,
when a member of Turkey's security forces shot and killed Russia's ambassador to Turkey.

The US State Dept issued this statement on Wednesday morning:

>        [indent]<QUOTE>"We are concerned by the violent incidents involving
>        protestors and Turkish security personnel Tuesday
>        evening. Violence is never an appropriate response to free speech,
>        and we support the rights of people everywhere to free expression
>        and peaceful protest.
>    
>        We are communicating our concern to the Turkish government in the
>        strongest possible terms."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

NY Times and Times of Israel and US News and Foreign Policy (1-Apr-2016) and US State Dept.

Related Articles

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan leaves empty-handed from meeting with Trump
****


Turkey's media are putting a positive spin on the outcome of Tuesday's
meeting of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan with president
Donald Trump.  They're emphasizing the friendly smiles and handshakes,
as well as the "new awakening" in relations between the two countries,
without focusing on the fact that Erdogan left the meeting
empty-handed.

Erdogan had two major agenda items for the meeting:
  • Last week, the US military announced that it would supply
    weapons to the Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG) in Syria, as
    they approach the final battle to recapture the city of Raqqa from the
    so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).  The weapons
    include small arms, mortars, heavy machine guns, shoulder-fired
    weapons and ammunition.  Turkey says that the YPG are terrorists
    affiliated with the PKK, while the US military considers the YPG to be
    the most effective fighting force in Syria against ISIS.  Erdogan had
    hoped to convince Trump to reverse the decision to arm the Kurds, but
    as far as is known, there was no such agreement.

  • Erdogan would like the US to extradite Fethullah Gulen back to
    Turkey, as they blame him for the failed coup in Turkey July 15 of
    last year.  I've always considered the accusation fanciful, as Gulen
    is a 76-year-old political enemy of Erdogan, living in the Pocono
    Mountains in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania, as if Fethullah Gulen had
    directed the coup himself from his easy chair.  There have been no
    reports that Trump has agreed to extradite Gulen.

However, Trump and Erdogan did agree that they should both "fight
terror."

The meeting between Trump and Erdogan lasted only 22 minutes,
suggesting that it might have been simply a preparatory meeting for
further negotiations in the future.  VOA and Hurriyet (Turkey) and Daily Sabah (Turkey)

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
PYD,  Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Raqqa,
Brookings Institute, People's Protection Units, YPG,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Fethullah Gulen

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum:    http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

The Turkish Embassy must have figured that now that the US has a President who is more in the Turkish mold than the Anglo-American one, they could get away with it. And in fact, the Alt-Right / Duginists were all applauding the bashing of the protestors on their fora / Twitters / etc.

I say, send them all to Turkey. They'll fit right in!


Bart
#ImpeachTrump
#ProsecuteTreason
#HUAC2.0
#RealNationalism
#NaziPunksFOff


Mark 13:22 - "For there shall rise false Christs and false prophets, and they shall give signs and wonders, to seduce, if possible, also the chosen."


Reply
(05-18-2017, 10:35 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > The Turkish Embassy must have figured that now that the US has a
> President who is more in the Turkish mold than the Anglo-American
> one, they could get away with it. And in fact, the Alt-Right /
> Duginists were all applauding the bashing of the protestors on
> their fora / Twitters / etc.

> I say, send them all to Turkey. They'll fit right in! Bart

If you have an actual link to those "Alt-Right" forum comments, I'd be
interested in reading them.

However, there appears to be a logic error in what you posted. The
Trump policy is to arm the Kurdish militias in Syria fighting against
ISIS, something opposed by the Turks, who would prefer to arm the FSA
to fight against ISIS. Presumably, the "Alt-Right" forums are
supporters of Trump, and so they would be on the side of Kurdish
protesters.
Reply
*** 19-May-17 World View -- US warplanes strike Syrian regime military convoy near al-Tanf base

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • US warplanes strike Syrian regime military convoy near al-Tanf base
  • Al-Tanf becomes a military flash point because of strategic value

****
**** US warplanes strike Syrian regime military convoy near al-Tanf base
****


[Image: g170518b.jpg]
Al-Tanf is on the Syrian side of Iraq's al-Waleed border crossing, and is on the strategic Route 1 highway between Baghdad and Damascus

American warplanes launched a series of airstrikes on Thursday against
a military convoy of pro-regime militias fighting in Syria. This is
the second time in the last few months that American forces have
intentionally struck military targets supporting the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad.

The first time occurred in April, when American ships in the eastern
Mediterranean Sea launched dozens of cruise missiles at the al-Shayrat
Airbase in Syria. That airbase was chosen because it's the base from
which Bashar al-Assad one week earlier launched a horrific Sarin gas
on the town of Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province, killing up to 100
people.

Thursday's attack was on a pro-Syrian regime convoy headed in the
direction of an American training camp at the border town al-Tanf in
Syria, near the border with Iraq and close to the Jordan border.

Originally there were thirteen vehicles in the convoy headed for
al-Tanf. US warplanes were scrambled in a "show of force" to dissuade
the convoy from proceeding further. According to some reports, there
were "Russian attempts to dissuade pro-regime movement."

After the show of force, five of the vehicles continued approaching
the base. When they were within 29 km of the base, they were hit by
US aircraft.

It's believed that the militia forces in the convoy were not from the
regular Syrian army, but were Shia militias coming either directly
from Iran or from Iran's puppet Hizbollah militia in Lebanon.
Although some vehicles were destroyed, it's not known whether there
were any casualties. AFP and CBS/AP

Related Articles

****
**** Al-Tanf becomes a military flash point because of strategic value
****


Al-Tanf is a Syrian border town on the other side of the border with
the Iraq town of al-Waleed, which is a major border crossing between
Iraq and Syria. The two towns lie on Route 1, the principal highway
that runs between Iraq's capital Baghdad and Syria's capital Damascus,
and also forks off to Jordan's capital Amman.

Militants from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) captured the al-Waleed border crossing two years ago in May,
2015, during the sweep that gave ISIS control of a great deal of
territory in Syria and Iraq. As ISIS faced numerous counterattacks,
al-Waleed was recaptured from ISIS by the Free Syrian Army in May of
2016. Even though it's no longer under ISIS control, it still retains
enormous strategic value. ISIS fighters have repeatedly attacked the
al-Tanf base, and had to be repelled by US Special Operations Forces.

Two days ago, Iranian state Fars news agency said the following:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The sources said that the Hezbollah Movement has
> deployed 12 regiments with 1,000 fighters to Homs, Dara'a and
> Quneitra to face the US-backed militants in al-Tanf border
> crossing and foil Washington's plan for the capture of Deir Ezzur.
>
> The sources said that the Syrian Army troops and their popular
> allies are trying hard to intensify their operations in Badiyeh
> (desert) to reach the border with Iraq and Jordan to prevent the
> militants backed up by the US and Jordan from attacking Deir Ezzur
> via the Syrian border with Jordan."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

The border crossing is at the intersection of Syria, Iraq and Jordan,
and Route 1 also forks off into Jordan, linking up to the capital city
Amman. Reports indicate that there has been increased military
activity in the region, and that there is a race to reach the border
between US, British and Jordanian special forces, on the one hand, and
Syrian, Hezbollah and Iranian forces on the other hand. BBC (22-May-2015) and Fars (Tehran) and CNN and
Debka

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, al-Tanf,
al-Waleed, Iraq, Jordan, al-Shayrat, Khan Sheikhoun,
Iran, Hezbollah,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
*** 20-May-17 World View -- France's new president Macron commits troops to Mali 'as long as necessary'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • France's new president Macron commits troops to Mali 'as long as necessary'
  • UN peacekeeping forces grow as jihadist attacks increase and Mali
  • A riddle

****
**** France's new president Macron commits troops to Mali 'as long as necessary'
****


[Image: g170519b.jpg]
France has peacekeeping troops in five Sahel nations -- Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad (TRT World)

France's new president Emmanuel Macron fulfilled a campaign promise on
Friday by visiting the French peacekeeping troops in Mali, in his
first official trip outside Europe since taking office less than a
week ago.

There are 4,000 French peacekeeping troops in Operation Barkhane,
France's largest overseas operation, which was begun in 2014 by
then-president François Hollande, with a vow to "wipe out armed
terrorist groups."

The French troops are in five West African nations in the Sahel
region, which is a strip of land running horizontally across Africa
from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea. Generally speaking, it
separates the Arab north from Black Africa, along a fault line that
often separates Muslims north of the Sahel from Christians south of
the Sahel. The Sahel cuts through the five countries with French
peacekeeping forces: Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad.

Macron said that France would be "uncompromising" in its fight against
militant Islamists in Mali and the other nations, and vowed that
France's military operations would continue until the jihadists are
eradicated. According to Macron, "Operation Barkhane will only stop
when there is no more Islamist terrorism in the region."
France 24 and Radio France Internationale and BBC

****
**** UN peacekeeping forces grow as jihadist attacks increase and Mali
****


The three largest transnational jihadist groups in Mali are al-Qaida
in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in
West-Africa (MUJAO), and al-Mourabitoun, created by Mokhtar
Belmokhtar.

However, probably the most important terrorist group in Mali is Ansar
Dine (Defenders of Faith), a local terrorist group from the Tuareg
ethnic group. The Tuaregs live in a region spanning northern Mali,
large parts of Algeria and Niger, and the southwestern portion of
Libya.

The Tuaregs had what arguably might be called a "lucky break" in 2011,
when Libya's dictator Muammar Gaddafi was killed. To protect himself,
Gaddafi had armed and employed mercenaries, many of whom were Tuareg.
When Gaddafi died, the Tuaregs were left with a big weapons cache,
which they used to begin a separatist rebellion in Mali.

Central Mali has seen a sharp increase in jihadist attacks and ethnic
violence since 2015. The United Nations has had an existing
peacekeeping force of 12,000 troops in Mali called MINUSMA since July
2013.

The UN is deploying a rapid intervention force of Senegalese troops to
central Mali. China is sending a peacekeeping force of 395 troops to
Mali before the end of May.

However, Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau is receiving criticism
for failing to meet his campaign promise of providing to the UN 600
Canadian troops for peacekeeping. Instead, has kept postponing the
question, refusing to say whether or not the Canadian troops would be
supplied. Trudeau's equivocation is causing problems for other
countries supplying peacekeeping troops. As one foreign diplomat
said, "Just make a decision. Even if it’s a no, we need a decision."
TRT World (Istanbul) and News 24 (South Africa) and Premium Times (Nigeria) and National Post (Ottawa)

Related Articles

****
**** A riddle
****


Question: What do Trump and the Mainstream Media have in common with
onald and Nancy Reagan?

Answer: They're obsessed with each other.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Emmanuel Macron, Africa, Sahel,
Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad,
Operation Barkhane, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM,
Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West-Africa, MUJAO,
al-Mourabitoun, Tuaregs, Ansar Dine, Defenders of Faith,
Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Senegal, Canada, Justin Trudeau

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
*** 21-May-17 World View -- Iran's younger generations propel Rouhani to decisive presidential win

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Iran's younger generations propel Rouhani to decisive presidential win
  • Brief generational history of Iran and Saudi Arabia
  • Donald Trump gets royal treatment visiting Saudi Arabia

****
**** Iran's younger generations propel Rouhani to decisive presidential win
****


[Image: g170520b.jpg]
Young woman voting in Iran on Friday

Iran's president Hassan Rouhani won an election battle to be
decisively re-elected for a second four-year term as president.
Rouhani is considered a moderate, and was not favored by the Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei. Rouhani won 57% of the vote in a
large turnout, a huge margin against Khamenei's favored candidate,
hardline cleric Ebrahim Raissi, who got only 38% of the votes.

In his victory speech, Rouhani said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Honorable Iranian nation, you are the winners of the
> election. I humbly bow to you. I will remain faithful to my vow
> to you. ...
>
> Prouder than ever before, Iran is today ready to step up its
> relations with the world on the basis of mutual respect and
> national interests.
>
> Our nation’s message (of peace and friendship) was explicitly
> departed to the world ... and the nation expects this most
> important message to be correctly heard by all governments,
> neighbors, and specifically, by great powers. ...
>
> “Our elections indicated to the neighbors and the region that the
> way to restore security to the region is to shore up democracy and
> honor the people’s votes rather than to rely on foreign
> powers. ...
>
> Today, the world is well aware that the Iranian nation has chosen
> the path of interaction with the world, a path which is distant
> from extremism and violence. Our nation seeks to live in peace
> and friendship with the world. However, it is not ready to accept
> any disrespect or threat. This is our nation’s most important
> message, and our nation expects the message to be appropriately
> heard by all states, neighboring countries and, particularly,
> world powers."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

It's an interesting observation that Iran comes second only behind
Israel as the most democratic countries in the Mideast.

Analysts indicate the decisive victory comes from the overwhelming
support of young people, who came out in large numbers because of
opposition to the hardline restrictions on dress, free speech, and
gender relations, and because of the widespread belief that Khamenei
and the hardliners were using illegal tactics to win the election.
Some analysts say that the election was about the economy, but since
Rouhani has failed to meet his election promises in the economy, that
does not seem to be the reason that Rouhani won. Instead, it appears
that young people ignored the economic issues just to vote against the
hardline clerics.

As I've written many, many times, Iran is in a generational Awakening
era, just one generation past the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979 and
the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988 with Saddam's use of chemical
weapons. A generational Awakening era is always about a "generation
gap," a political conflict between the generations of traumatized
survivors of the preceding generational crisis war and the generations
of young people who grew up after the war, and have no personal memory
of it. The older and younger generations have completely different
world views, and the political conflict continues until there's an
Awakening era climax that settles the disputed. America's last
Awakening era was the 1960s-70s, marked by the "Summer of Love," as
well as widespread political and racial riots, until the Awakening era
climax occurred in 1974 with the resignation of President Richard
Nixon.

Iran is also headed for some kind of Awakening era climax, pitting the
younger generations, current represented by Hassan Rouhani, versus the
traumatized Great Islamic Revolution survivors, currently represented
by Ebrahim Raissi and Ayatollah Khamenei.

Rouhani's decisive electoral victory is not enough to be called an
Awakening era climax, but it could trigger events that could lead to
such a climax. During the campaign, Rouhani bitterly criticized his
political opponents, including Raissi's supporters and the powerful
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) which enforces many of the
hardline laws. Now that the election is over, hardliners are expected
to "settle scores," and this could result in a major political battle
of a kind similar to the one that led to Nixon's resignation.

In fact, there is a particularly bitter battle on the horizon.
Khamenei has been Supreme Leader since 1989, but he's 77 years old,
and is in poor health, so there's a succession battle approaching.
This succession battle may trigger the Awakening era climax that we've
been describing. Tehran Times and Reuters and The Hindu

Related Articles

****
**** Brief generational history of Iran and Saudi Arabia
****


As I've been writing for over ten years, Generational Dynamics
predicts that Iran will be an American ally in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, which will pit the US, India, Russia, Iran
and the west against China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries.

Now would be a good time to briefly reprise the reasons for the
prediction that Iran will be an American ally. There are two major
categories of reasons.
  • First, Hindus and Shia Muslims have allied against Sunni
    Muslims at least as far back as the seminal Battle of Karbala in 680,
    which was the battle that firmly created what became the Shia-Sunni
    split. India is also very closely allied with Russia. America will
    be allied with India, and so with Russia and Iran.

  • Second, college students in Iran started holding pro-Western and
    pro-American protests in the late 1990s, at the beginning of Iran's
    generational Awakening era. The Iran hardliners brutally suppressed
    those protests, but doing so didn't change minds. Today, those
    students are 30-40 years old, and have risen to positions of power,
    ready to take over when the current hardline leadership dies off.
    They are generally pro-Western and pro-American, and consider Saudi
    Arabia to be an existential threat.

Now would also be a good time to reprise the three events of 1979 that
shook the Muslim world in the Mideast and beyond, and how they affect
events today:
  • Prior to 1979, Iran had been an important ally of the US and
    UK in the Mideast. However, Iran's Great Islamic Revolution brought a
    radical theocratic Shia government to Iran, threatening to take over
    the leadership of the Islamic world from Saudi Arabia, turning the
    entire political infrastructure around.

  • In November 1979, 500 young Salafist terrorists took over Saudi
    Arabia's Masjid al-Haram, or the Grand Mosque. It took two weeks for
    a massive Saudi army effort to retake the Mosque. By the end, the
    official death toll was 127 soldiers and 117 militants. Unconfirmed
    reports indicate that over 1,000 civilians lost their lives. The
    Jihadists were re-fighting a crisis war that had occurred in the 1920s
    between the al-Saud family and a Salafist group known as the Wahhabis.
    At that time, the crisis war was resolved with an agreement that the
    al-Saud family would rule Saudi Arabia, but would follow the strict,
    austere demands of the Wahhabis. The attack on the Grand Mosque
    destroyed that agreement, and let the fuse for 9/11.

  • The third epochal event of 1979 was the Soviet invasion of
    Afghanistan, which was seen by Saudi Arabia's Salafists as a Christian
    invasion of a Muslim country. After the violent takeover of the Grand
    Mosque, the al-Saud government started encouraging Salafists in Saudi
    Arabia to travel to Afghanistan to fight the Russians. The Russians
    were mainly fighting the Pashtun tribes that later formed the Sunni
    Muslim Taliban, and they were mainly fighting against what became the
    the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern
    Afghanistan, many of whom were Shias allied with Iran. At that time,
    the U.S. considered both Russia and Iran to be enemies, the latter
    because of the Iranian hostage crisis, and so the Americans supported
    the Pashtuns in Afghanistan (and Iraq in the Iran/Iraq war). The
    Afghan war led to the rise of Osama bin Laden, 9/11, and the
    Taliban.

Needless to say, Americans today are totally oblivious to the events
described here, but these were epochal events in the history of the
Arab, Persian and Muslim worlds in the Mideast and beyond, and they
define what's happening in the Mideast today.

Related Articles

****
**** Donald Trump gets royal treatment visiting Saudi Arabia
****


President Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia on Saturday, on the first
leg of his five-nation tour. The first three visits will be to the
centers of the Abrahamic religions -- Riyadh in Saudi Arabia,
Jerusalem, and the Vatican. After that, he'll visit Brussels, the
capital of the European Union, and then Taormina Italy for the G-7
meeting.

Trump was received like visiting royalty in Saudi Arabia. Trump, his
wife Melania, and his senior White House staff were serenaded by
military bands, treated to a flyover of Saudi jets, feted in opulent
palaces and given the undivided attention of Saudi's 81 year old King
Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud.

Trump and Salman signed an agreement for the sale of $110 billion of
military equipment to Saudi Arabia over several years. The deal
includes tanks, combat ships, missile defense systems, radar and
communications, and cybersecurity technology. Trump was joined on the
trip by the CEOs of several major U.S. companies, which announced
their own agreements with the Saudis. Among them was a $15 billion
arrangement with GE focused on power, oil and gas, and health care.

What's most interesting about Trump's visit is the symbolic flip-flop
from the previous administration to the current one in attitudes
towards Iran and Saudi Arabia.

President Barack Obama repeatedly showed his contempt, in one way or
another, for the Saudis, and the feeling was mutual. However Obama,
through his Secretary of State John Kerry who believes that America's
soldiers are terrorists, repeatedly sucked up to the Iranians, making
one humiliating concession after another to close the nuclear deal.
However, the feeling was not mutual, as Iran repeatedly insulted
Kerry, Obama, and the American people, and still does.

So now president Trump has made a symbolic reversal. Trump is
contemptuous of the Iranians, and the Iranians are contemptuous of
him. Trump loves the Saudis, and the Saudis love him.

This is a good time to remind readers that it's a core principle of
Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions
are made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes
of politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the
attitudes of the people. So the relations between American, Iranian
and Saudi leaders is much less important than the attitudes that the
masses of Americans, Saudis and Iranians have for one another.

So we note the following:
  • Although the Supreme Leader and other Iranian politicians say
    they hate the United States, their attitudes are not shared by the
    younger generations, who are generally pro-Western and pro-American.
    So it really makes little difference what Obama and Trump think of
    Khamenei.

  • As illustrated by the 1979 terrorist attack on Saudi Arabia's
    Grand Mosque, there's a major split in Saudi Arabia between those who
    support the al-Saud government and the Salafists. How this split
    plays out in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war remains
    to be seen.

I believe that a great deal of information can be determined by
detailed generational analyses of the various tribes and ethnic groups
in the Mideast. I believe that this analysis could be used to predict
how events will unfold in the coming years. I certainly don't have
anything like the resources to perform such an analysis, but any
college student interested in this kind of analysis could make an
invaluable contribution to understanding what's going on in the world
today by taking on, as a thesis topic, a generational analysis of the
tribes and ethnic groups in the Mideast. AP and Arab News

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Hassan Rouhani Ebrahim Raissi,
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Great Islamic Revolution, Iran/Iraq war,
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC,
Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud,
India, Russia, China, Pakistan, Battle of Karbala,
Grand Mosque, Afghanistan, Pashtuns, Taliban

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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*** 22-May-17 World View -- North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile
  • Socialist Venezuela again delays eliminating 100-bolivar notes despite hyperinflation

****
**** North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile
****


[Image: g170521b.jpg]
A ballistic rocket launching drill in Pyongyang, North Korea, on March 7, 2017 (Reuters)

Eight days after the last one, North Korea test-fired another
ballistic missile on Sunday. It flew about 500 km, before falling
into the Sea of Japan.

According to North Korea state media, Kim Jong-un "supervised" the
test firing, and "analyzed the results of the test-launch and
expressed his great satisfaction over them, saying it is perfect."

The new president of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, had promised to begin
talks with North Korea in the hopes of convincing them to stop the
tests. North Korea has not responded at all to the call for talks,
and this latest ballistic missile test appears to be intended as a
complete rejection.

Analysts generally are saying that North Korea already has the ability
to send a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile to countries and US bases
in the region, and that its development is proceeding quickly enough
that the ability to send one to the US mainland is in sight.

An opinion writer, Paul Wee, for the Seattle Times explains North
Korea's motivations as follows:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"There is something more that needs to be said. In the
> early 1950s, responding to the North Korean threat, U.S. B-29s,
> with little opposition, carried out the saturation bombing of
> villages and towns across the North. The capital, Pyongyang, was
> 75 percent destroyed with more than 3 million people killed. Over
> a three-year period, 20 percent of the population was wiped out.
>
> Then Undersecretary of State, Dean Rusk, said that the U.S. bombed
> “everything that moved in North Korea, every brick standing on top
> of another.” With the cities in ruins, attention was then given to
> the destruction of irrigation and hydroelectric dams and the
> destruction of crops.
>
> Although little is spoken or written about this side of the war,
> in North Korea it is remembered as if it happened
> yesterday. During a visit in 1984, I recall billboards along the
> main roads that purported to graphically document the destruction
> and convey the enormity of the human suffering."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

Here's what I wrote
after the last
ballistic missile test:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The United Nations Security Council will meet on
> Tuesday to discuss the situation. They're expected to issue a
> statement condemning the missile test, calling it "unacceptable,"
> and threatening that if there's another test then the Security
> Council will hold another meeting."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

Well, not surprisingly, that has turned out to be completely true.
South Korea's new president, Moon Jae-in, has called for an emergency
meeting of the UN Security Council. AFP and Kyodo and KCNA Watch and Seattle Times

Related Articles

****
**** Socialist Venezuela again delays eliminating 100-bolivar notes despite hyperinflation
****


Hyperinflation continues in the Socialist economy of Venezuela, with
an inflation rate of 93% in just January-April of this year. The
country's bolivar currency is down more than 99% since Socialist
leader Nicolás Maduro became president in 2013.

Because the currency is becoming almost worthless, Maduro has ordered
the elimination of lower-denominated bills. The 100-bolivar bill was
supposed to be eliminated in December, but the order has been delayed
for the seventh time, and now the elimination is scheduled for July
20.

The 100-bolivar bill is currently worth about 14 US cents, and its
value is continuing to fall. The plan is to eliminate it, and print
new bills of 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 20,000 bolivars.

No reason has been given for the seventh delay, but in the past the
government has been unable to purchase paper because it didn't have
enough foreign exchange to be able to pay foreign suppliers.

Throughout history, Socialism has had a 100% failure rate, causing
nothing but economic disaster and dead bodies floating down the
streets in rivers of blood, while Socialist leaders bask in opulence.
Venezuela is headed down the same road, and it won't be long before
Maduro orders the army to massacre thousands or tens of thousands of
people, so that he can stay in power. Whether Kim Jong-un or Maduro,
these Socialist leaders are all the same. Latin American Herald Tribune and Reuters

Related Articles



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
South Korea, Moon Jae-in, Paul Wee,
Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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*** 23-May-17 World View -- Germany's government blocks debt relief for Greece, despite new austerity measures

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Greece's parliament raises taxes, cuts pensions to satisfy lenders
  • Germany's government blocks debt relief for Greece, despite new austerity measures

****
**** Greece's parliament raises taxes, cuts pensions to satisfy lenders
****


[Image: g170522b.jpg]
Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble is blocking further debt relief for Greece (Reuters)

We reported in February
that after
passing one harsh austerity measure after another, Greece may refuse
to pass another one, and Greece might actually leave the eurozone this
time.

However, Greece's parliament has now passed an omnibus austerity bill
in order to meet requirements the lending institutions -- the European
Central Bank (ECB), the European Commission (EC), and the
International Monetary Fund(IMF). Greece faces a &euro;7.5 billion
debt repayment in July, and needs to borrow additional money in order
to make that debt repayment.

The terms of bill include the following:
  • Income tax increases will generate revenues of &euro;1.9
    billion.

  • Pensions will be cut up to 18%, saving &euro;2.3 billion.

  • Asset sales: Sale of stakes in railways, Thessaloniki port, Athens
    International Airport, Hellenic Petroleum and real estate assets, to
    generate &euro;4.22 billion in 2017-18.

Greece once had an extremely generous pension system. Retirement was
possible from as early as the age of 55 after 30 years of work.
Public sector employees and women with young children could retire
several years earlier. Today, the standard retirement age is 67, and
incomes have fallen 40% over the last seven years of crisis.

Under the new bill, there will be some relief measures, contingent on
meeting fiscal targets, including benefits for low income groups,
support for rental costs up to 1,000 euros annually, increased
benefits for parents with children, and subsidies for child care and
lower costs for medicines. Kathimerini and Euro News and Kathimerini

Related Articles

****
**** Germany's government blocks debt relief for Greece, despite new austerity measures
****


Monday's meeting of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers failed
to reach an agreement on further debt relief for Greece, despite the
harsh new austerity measures adopted by Greece's parliament.

The main purpose of the talks was to get the IMF to join in the
bailout. The IMF doesn't want to provide any more bailout money
because it believes that Greece's debt is unsustainable, unless the
Eurogroup agrees to give Greece more debt relief.

Germany's irascible Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble won't agree to
release new bailout funds to Greece, unless the IMF participates. But
with German elections approaching, Schäuble also won't agree to
further debt relief for Greece.

Germany's government is split. For months, Foreign Minister Sigmar
Gabriel has criticized Schäuble's tough stance on Greece.

Schäuble is in Germany's conservative Christian Democratic Union
party. Gabriel is in Germany's Social Democrat party. Gabriel is
demanding that debt relief for Greece "must not fail due to German
resistance." However, the Germany parliament needs to approve bailout
negotiations, and Schäuble responded to Gabriel on Monday:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"In Germany, we have a legal framework for
> parliamentary involvement ... which is sometimes overlooked,
> including by members of the German government."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

The next meeting will occur in three weeks. Agreement must be reached
in time to lend Greece the next tranche of loans to that Greece can
make its &euro;7.5 billion debt repayment in July. If Greece fails to
make that payment, then it is in default.

This looks like it has all the makings of another major Greek debt
crisis, with several all-night meetings in a row, and with agreement
finally reached at 5 am on the last possible day to avoid bankruptcy.
However, some reports indicate that the Europeans are really sick and
tired of those awful crisis weekends, and so they may be motivated to
reach an agreement more quickly. Kathimerini and Politico (EU) and Bloomberg

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Grexit,
European Central Bank, ECB, European Commission, EC,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Thessaloniki,
Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble, Sigmar Gabriel

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
*** 24-May-17 World View -- Russian obstructionism blocks agreement on splitting up the Caspian Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Russian obstructionism blocks agreement on splitting up the Caspian Sea
  • New 'facts on the ground' may force Russia to change its mind

****
**** Russian obstructionism blocks agreement on splitting up the Caspian Sea
****


[Image: g170523b.jpg]
Map of Caspian Sea

Last week, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said that
the five littoral states bordering the Caspian Sea should be able to
reach an agreement this year on the legal status of the Caspian Sea --
specifically, dividing up the seabed among the five littoral states.
According to Karasin:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We believe that this [cooperation with the Caspian
> Sea bordering countries] is one of the most important issues for
> Russia now, because the Caspian Sea should be an example of
> cooperation rather than confrontation. We are well aware that the
> situation in the world is unstable, there is some uncertainty. The
> Caspian Sea should be a positive example. There are all necessary
> conditions for that. ...
>
> We are now working to formalize an agreement on the Convention on
> the legal status of the Caspian Sea. We hope that this agreement
> is within arm’s reach. ...
>
> In a word, one can be optimistic and say that we are on the right
> track."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

History shows that none of this is likely to be true. That's not
surprising, since we knows from recent experiences with listening to
Russia about invading Ukraine, invading and annexing Crimea, Syria,
al-Assad's use of Sarin gas, the Russians' shooting down of the
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 passenger plane with a Russian Buk 9M38
missile, and so forth, that if Russians ever tell the truth, then it's
by accident.

The five littoral states of the Caspian Sea have for decades been
unable to reach an agreement on dividing the Caspian Sea among them.
They agree that the entire surface of the sea should be open to all
for commercial shipping and for fishing. The disagreements are over
the seabed, and particularly control of the vast energy projects built
on the seabed.

Prior to 1991, there were only two littoral states -- the Soviet Union
and Iran, and the Soviets used their vastly superior and military and
economic power to gain the advantage in the Caspian Sea.

When the Soviet Union disintegrated, suddenly there were five littoral
states. During the 1990s, the chaos in Russia permitted Azerbaijan,
Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan to begin independent oil and gas
development projects. By the end of the 1990s, Vladimir Putin was
taking charge, and every form of obstruction was used.

Russia's main number one objective is to prevent gas from reaching
Europe, except Russia's gas, delivered by Russia's state-owned
Gazprom. That means no Middle Eastern or Central Asian gas reaching
Europe. It also means no drilling in the Caspian Sea, and it also
means no pipelines crossing the Caspian Sea.

Russia has used a variety of heavy-handed methods to reach its
objective. By using its superior economic and military power, Russia
was able to force Iran and Armenia to sharply limit pipeline
capacities through their countries. In 2003, Gazprom attempted to
gain control of Georgia's network of high pressure gas transmission
lines, thus blocking any Azerbaijan gas from traveling through
Georgia, though the attempt was thwarted by financial aid from US
Agency for International Development. Tass (Moscow) and Jamestown and Atlantic Council

****
**** New 'facts on the ground' may force Russia to change its mind
****


In the Caspian Sea, Russia's major weapon was to stir disagreements
among the other four littoral states with regard to control of the
seabed.

International laws provide for various methods for splitting up
ownership of the seabed. According to one method, the size of the
region that each country gets depends on the length of the coastline
bordering the sea. Under this method Azerbaijan, Russia and
Kazakhstan would get the largest shares of the seabed, and so these
countries favor it.

According to a second set of rules, there are five littoral states,
and so the seabed would be split up equally among them, giving them
each 20% of the seabed. Iran and Turkmenistan favor this set of
rules, because they have the shortest shorelines.

At numerous summit meetings, the Russians have succeeding in provoking
disagreements among the countries, with the result that no agreement
has been reached in the 26 years since the Soviet Union disintegrated.
Since there's no agreement on who owns what, it's been difficult for
any country to develop energy projects, which is Russia's objective.

However, Russia's heavy-handed tactics began to backfire. Russia’s
four-day interruption of gas supplies to Ukraine in January 2006
caused a surge in Europe’s political resolve to diversify its natural
gas supplies and breathed new life into the still fledgling pipeline
projects vying to bring Caspian gas to Europe. Russian gas supplies
to Central and Southeast Europe were disrupted again from January 6 to
20 in 2009. This longer cutoff coincided with a period of cold weather
throughout the region.

This has led to "facts on the ground" that Russia is forced to
consider. Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR has started drilling a
new well. Norwegian companies have expressed an interest in working
with Iran to drill and explore oil fields in the Caspian Sea. And
Mideast countries are beginning to work with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan
and Turkmenistan on oil and gas projects in the Caspian Sea. All of
these energy projects specifically exclude Russia.

For 25 years, Russia has exploited political differences among the
other countries to block many pipeline projects, but at the same time,
that deadlock has led to expanded contacts between other pairs of
littoral states and increased shipping between and among them—again to
the exclusion of the Russia.

An even more ominous development for Russia is that since the start of
2017, the amount of cargo passing through Russian ports on the Caspian
Sea has fallen, compared to last year, by 48.4%. This figure is
striking given that Russian ports elsewhere have seen an 11% increase
in traffic over the same period, while the ports of other Caspian
littoral states have also grown busier. Such trends are worrisome to
Moscow because the decline in traffic at Russia’s Caspian ports is
accelerating and putting the country’s regional geopolitical strategy
at risk.

At any rate, Russia's deputy foreign minister said that "the Caspian
Sea should be an example of cooperation rather than confrontation,"
and that a legal status agreement should be concluded by the end of
the year. And yet, no date has been set for a signing of the legal
status agreement, and the setting of such a date is nowhere in sight.
Jamestown (George Goble) and Trend (Azerbaijan)
and Mehr News (Iran)

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Grigory Karasin, Caspian Sea,
Soviet Union, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan,
Gazprom, US Agency for International Development,
SOCAR, Norway

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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*** 25-May-17 World View -- China's flagrant snub of Singapore reflects deteriorating ties

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • China's flagrant snub of Singapore reflects deteriorating ties
  • India and Singapore launch major naval exercises in South China Sea

****
**** China's flagrant snub of Singapore reflects deteriorating ties
****


[Image: g160126b.gif]
China commercial and military route through Malacca strait

Two weeks ago, China held its wildly spectacular One Belt One Road (OBOR) forum
in
Beijing. Attending were 1,200 delegates from 110 countries, including
28 heads of state. Among them were seven leaders from members of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

But one of those leaders was noticeably missing: Singapore’s Prime
Minister Lee Hsien Loong. The media debated whether China was
snubbing Lee, or whether Lee had chosen not to go. Finally,
Singapore's government clarified what happened: Lee was not invited.
It was an official Chinese snub.

In years past, Lee Kuan Yew, the father of the current prime minister,
maintained very friendly relations with China, while still retaining a
strategic relationship with the United States. But this balancing act
seems to have eluded the current prime minister. He's been
increasingly critical of China's illegal militarization of the South
China Sea, and he's even joked about China during a visit to
Washington.

China got revenge last December when Hong Kong customs illegally
seized nine Singapore-owned armored military vehicles being shipped
from Taiwan back to Singapore. Singapore finally got them back only
after several months had passed, but the message was clear: China no
longer considers Singapore to be a friend.

This was further emphasized at the OBOR forum not only by snubbing
prime minister Lee, but also by signing billion dollar technology
deals with Malaysia and Indonesia, completely bypassing Singapore.
Lowy Institute (Australia) and Global Times (22-May) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong - 3-Dec-2016) and Bloomberg (18-May)
and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong - 1-Oct-2016)


****
**** India and Singapore launch major naval exercises in South China Sea
****


Singapore is a tiny city-state that sits at the bottom tip of the
peninsula just below the western portion of Malaysia. Singapore was a
British colony, and became self-governing in 1959. It was supposed to
remain part of Malaysia, but in 1965 it split off due to ethnic
tensions, and became an independent republic.

Singapore guards the entrance to the Malacca Strait, a narrow
passageway through which trillions of dollars in goods travel each
year. Malacca Strait is extremely important to China as a choke point
on the "Maritime Silk Road" portion of OBOR. Because of Singapore's
strategic importance, it's somewhat surprising that China has bypassed
Singapore, and has only signed deals with Malaysia and Indonesia.

Both India and Singapore are fearful of Chinese military attacks.
China may invade Singapore as part of an effort to keep the Malacca
Straits open, and India has officially expressed concern that China's
military may attack the lightly-defended Andaman and Nicobar Islands,
which are India's sovereign territory.

This week, India and Singapore are conducting major joint naval
exercises called "SIMBEX," taking place in the South China Sea. Each
country is fielding numerous warships and aircraft.

According to an Indian navy spokesman:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"This year's edition of SIMBEX, the 24th such
> bilateral combat exercise, is aimed at further increasing
> interoperability between the two navies as well as developing
> common understanding and procedures for maritime security
> operations.
>
> The thrust of the exercise, with the harbor phase scheduled from
> May 18 to 20 and the sea phase from May 21 to 24, will be on
> anti-submarine warfare, integrated operations with surface, air
> and sub-surface forces, air defense and surface encounter
> operations."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

China's Foreign Ministry commented on the exercises by warning that
the activities should "not hurt the interests of other countries,"
which presumably alludes to China's illegal military bases in the
South China Sea:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"If such exercises and cooperation are for the
> benefits of regional peace and stability, then we have no
> opposition," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said when
> asked for China's response by Indian media at a daily briefing.
>
> We hold a very open attitude to normal exchanges between
> countries. We just hope when relevant countries conduct such
> exchange and cooperation they should bear in mind such activities
> not hurt the interests of other countries or have a negative
> impact to regional peace and stability."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

It's generous of China to have an open attitude toward "normal
exchanges" between countries. However, China has repeatedly
threatened America's "Freedom on Navigation" trips through the South
China Sea, and has used its vast military power to prevent Vietnam and
the Philippines from even accessing their own sovereign waters.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the closer
association between Singapore and India is significant because it puts
the strategically important Singapore clearly aligned with the West.

The Independent (Singapore)
and India Today and India Times

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Singapore, China, Malacca Strait,
India, Lee Hsien Loong, Lee Kuan Yew, SIMBEX,
One Belt One Road, OBOR

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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply
*** 26-May-17 World View -- Trump's Mideast visit triggers renewal of sharp split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Trump's Mideast visit triggers renewal of sharp split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar
  • Qatar claims that it was cyber-attacked after media reports supporting Iran
  • Vitriolic Saudi-Qatari fault line reopened this week by Trump's visit
  • Some useful information that's good to know

****
**** Trump's Mideast visit triggers renewal of sharp split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar
****


[Image: g170525b.jpg]
Trump signs $110 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia

President Donald Trump's harsh condemnation of Iran during Monday's
visit to Saudi Arabia has apparently triggered a renewal of a
long-standing split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and within the GCC
(Gulf Cooperation Council) in general. The GCC is an organization of
Arab nations (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates (UAE)) on the Arabian Gulf.

The joint statement issued after Trump's meeting with Saudi King
Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud said the following:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"22. The two leaders also agreed on the need to
> contain Iran’s malign interference in the internal affairs of
> other states, instigation of sectarian strife, support of
> terrorism and armed proxies, and efforts to destabilize the
> countries in the region.
>
> 23. The two leaders also stressed that Iran’s interference poses
> a threat to the security of the region and the world, and that the
> nuclear agreement with Iran needs to be re-examined in some of its
> clauses. The Iranian ballistic missile program poses a threat, not
> only to neighboring countries, but also a direct threat to the
> security of all countries in the region as well as global
> security."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

The next day, at a meeting with Israeli officials in Jerusalem, he
said, "Most importantly, the United States and Israel can declare with
one voice that Iran must never be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon
- never, ever - and must cease its deadly funding, training and
equipping of terrorists and militias, and it must cease immediately."

Iran's newly reelected president Hassan Rouhani called Trump's
appearance a "theatrical gathering with no practical or political
value," saying that "You can't solve terrorism just by giving your
people's money to a superpower."

Rouhani was alluding to the deals that Trump and Salman signed for
Saudi Arabia to purchase $110 billion in weapons from the US.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi called on Washington
to abandon its "warmongering policy, intervention, Iranophobia and
sales of dangerous and useless weapons to the main sponsors of
terrorism." White House and Reuters and CNN

****
**** Qatar claims that it was cyber-attacked after media reports supporting Iran
****


The above reactions from Iran were to be expected, and were just a
repetition of the sorts of things that Iranian hardliners say about
the United States every day. Nothing new there.

The reaction that created shocked waves was from Qatar, when Qatari
emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani was quoted as saying: "There is
no reason behind Arabs' hostility to Iran and our [Qatar's]
relationship with Israel is good." The statement also praised the
Muslim Brotherhood, as well as Iran's puppet terrorist group,
Hezbollah.

The statements were immediately picked up by media in Saudi Arabia and
other GCC countries. An official in the UAE said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Qatar favoring the MB and Iran over Saudi Arabia, the
> Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain is a serious political crisis.
>
> We concluded the summits in Riyadh, thanking God for uniting Arab,
> Islamic and international stances and the 3 summits were
> successful. However, we were surprised today to hear that Qatar’s
> stance has changed; we believe that is neither a suitable timing,
> nor suitable excuses or good statements. We ask Allah to guide
> Qatar."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

Four Arab countries -- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and
Bahrain -- blocked al-Jazeera and other Qatari news sites.

Then there was a further surprise when Qatari Sheik al-Thani announced
that he had never made any such comments, and that Qatar's news web
sites had been hacked.

These claims were not universally believed. According to an editorial
in the Gulf News:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Today, the GCC is faced with another challenge. And
> unfortunately, it is coming from within the ranks of the
> group. Shortly after the conclusion of last week’s GCC
> Consultative Summit in Riyadh, we were stunned by remarks,
> attributed to the Emir of Qatar, Shaikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani,
> during a military ceremony on Tuesday, in which he appeared to
> defy not only the official GCC policies on most critical issues —
> particularly Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah — but also to hint that the
> American bases in Qatar were the only guarantee to safeguard his
> country from the “threat posed by some neighboring countries”.
>
> While the three summits hosted by Saudi Arabia last Saturday and
> Sunday, in the presence of United States President Donald Trump
> and leaders of 57 Muslim countries, agreed that Iran was fuelling
> conflicts and sectarian tension in the region, Shaikh Tamim has
> been quoted by the Qatari official news agency as saying: “Iran
> represents a regional and Islamic power that cannot be ignored and
> it is unwise to face up against it. It is a big power in the
> stabilization of the region.”"<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

At this point it is not clear to me, an outsider, whether or not
al-Thani actually made the referenced remarks. However, the alleged
remarks have triggered a major backlash by other Arab countries, and
many officials of those countries believe that the quoted remarks,
whether real or not, actually represent Qatar's policies.

Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain are still
blocking Qatari news sites. Al-Arabiya (24-May) and BBC and
The Peninsula (Qatar) and Gulf News

****
**** Vitriolic Saudi-Qatari fault line reopened this week by Trump's visit
****


In 2004, I reported several times about a major Mideast realignment,
with Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia on one side, and Qatar plus
Hamas plus Turkey on the other side. In March of that year there was
an extremely bitter split among GCC members. After a stormy GCC
meeting, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain
recalled their ambassadors from Qatar

The trigger was the refusal of Qatar to support a security agreement
that was adopted by the GCC several months earlier, requiring all
members not to back "anyone threatening the security and stability of
the GCC whether as groups or individuals - via direct security work or
through political influence, and not to support hostile media." In
particular, Qatar has refused to implement three specific provisions:
  • To stop supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, which at that time
    was the governing party in Egypt, led by Mohammed Morsi, and was
    strongly supported by Turkey.

  • To place strict broadcast restrictions on the Egyptian cleric,
    Shaikh Yousuf al-Qaradawi, a Muslim Brother supporter who speaks
    frequently on Qatar's al-Jazeera Arabic.

  • To severely restrict the movement of Iranian operatives within
    the GCC. There have been unconfirmed reports that Qatar facilitated
    the movement of Iranians through the GCC. Apparently this was the
    main cause of disagreement at the GCC meeting.

When Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government were in
power in Egypt, then Egypt and Qatar had close relations, and Qatar
was providing aid to Egypt. However, in July 2013, army general Abdel
al-Fattah al-Sisi engineered a coup that overthrew Morsi, and later
became president himself.

The split grew larger during the summer, when there was a 60-day war
between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Qatar and Iran strongly supported
Hamas, while many people believed that Egypt was on the side of Israel
and the Palestinian Authority.

Late in 2014, the vitriolic differences between the GCC countries were
papered over, thanks to mediation by Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah II,
the the older brother of the current King Salman.

What's happened now is that all the vitriolic feelings of 2014 are
resurfacing. It's quite possible that this is a momentary blip, and
that a way will be found in the next few days or weeks to paper those
feelings over again, but the events of the last week prove that those
feelings exist, and they can resurface and turn into conflict at any
time, if a new event triggers them. AP and Reuters

Related Articles

****
**** Some useful information that's good to know
****


If you live in Manchester, England, then you're a "Mancunian."
Manchester was the site of the recent terror attack,


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Bahrain,
Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Iran, Hassan Rouhani, Bahram Qassem,
Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani,
Turkey, Mohammed Morsi, Egypt, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi

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