Generational Dynamics World View

[Cynic Hero '86]

Just because boomer globalists see our troops as tools to be discarded when they are no longer needed does not mean that its western values. Non-boomers actually care about winning the war on terror. We consider cut and run without a fight to be cowardly. Non-boomers actually care about the victims of 9/11 and avenging 9/11. Xers and Millies will never consent to a policy of democratizing Russia and China. They will not consent to a defensive "just war" against North Korea where the American forces abide by the Geneva Convention even when North Korean forces do not follow the laws of war and where we wait for the North Koreans to fire the first shot. Xers and Millies support a preemptive war against North Korea if that is necessary.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Aug-17 World View -- China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China sets apparent Aug 19 deadline for India to remove soldiers from Doklam
  
• Trump threatens North Korea with 'fire and fury'
  

****
**** China sets apparent Aug 19 deadline for India to remove soldiers from Doklam
****


Chinese soldier confronts Indian soldier at border crossing (AFP)

China's rhetoric over the border dispute with India has been become
increasingly belligerent since the standoff began in June, and now
appears to be setting a hard deadline for military action.

As we've been reporting
a standoff
between India's army and China's army on Doklam plateau in the tiny
country of Bhutan. China is attempting to annex the region, and on
June 16 sent Chinese troops and construction workers to begin road
construction. Bhutan troops tried to prevent the Chinese troop
incursion, but they were overrun. India sent in its own troops,
saying that it did so when Bhutan invoked a treaty with India and
asked for help. The result is a standoff, though no bullets have been
fired yet.

However, statements in the media and from China's Foreign Ministry
have been increasingly threatening, demanding that India withdraw its
troops and permit China to invade and annex the region, or be
"annihilated" by China's army. Many analysts seem to agree that
China will win a military confrontation.

In the last three days, China's state-run Global Times appears to have
set a deadline of August 19, after which there will be a "small-scale
military operation to expel Indian troops."

The article on August 5 said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"China will not allow the military standoff between
> China and India in Doklam to last for too long, and there may be a
> small-scale military operation to expel Indian troops within two
> weeks, Chinese experts said after six ministries and institutions
> made remarks on the incident within the past 24 hours.
>
> From Thursday to Friday, two ministries and four institutions,
> including the Chinese foreign ministry, the defense ministry, the
> Chinese Embassy in India and the People's Daily, released
> statements or commentary on the military standoff between China
> and India in Doklam, Tibet Autonomous Region. The standoff has
> lasted for almost two months now, and there is still no end in
> sight."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In order to prove that the threats are credible, the article
emphasizes that all of China's relevant ministries and institutions
are saying the same thing: That a military action within two weeks
will expel Indian troops.

The article goes on to quote Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow at the
Institute of International Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social
Sciences:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The series of remarks from the Chinese side within a
> 24-hour period sends a signal to India that there is no way China
> will tolerate the Indian troops' incursion into Chinese territory
> for too long. If India refuses to withdraw, China may conduct a
> small-scale military operation within two weeks."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

As usual, we have to point out that China has lied repeatedly and
continuously about its claims and criminal activities in the South
China Sea, and so there is no reason to believe any claims they make
about Bhutan's territory on the Doklam Plateau. But China's policy is
to use brute military force to invade and annex other countries'
territories, and the same thing is now happening to Bhutan. It would
have happened already but Indian troops have blocked China's invasion
so far.

Another article on August 7 says the following:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Times of India reported on Monday that "the
> Indian security establishment is reasonably sure China will not
> risk a war or even 'a small-scale military operation' despite all
> its belligerent rhetoric."
>
> Of course China doesn't want to risk a war and hopes that peace
> could return and China and India can get along well. But if Indian
> troops continue to linger on Chinese soil, it will be quite
> another matter.
>
> India made constant provocations at the China-India border in
> 1962. The government of Jawaharlal Nehru at that time firmly
> believed China would not strike back. China had just undergone
> domestic turmoil and natural disasters; Beijing and Washington
> were engaged in hostility and China's relations with the Soviet
> Union had begun to chill.
>
> However, the Nehru government underestimated the determination of
> the Chinese government to safeguard China's territorial integrity
> even as the country was mired in both domestic and diplomatic
> woes.
>
> Fifty-five years have passed, but the Indian government is as
> naïve as it ever was. The lessons of the 1962 war didn't last for
> half a century. Usually, no government dares to offend a powerful
> neighbor. Now all Indian people know that their troops have
> trespassed on the territory of another country, although New Delhi
> claims that it is a disputed area between China and Bhutan. As the
> risk of war is rising, Indian public opinion has become clear that
> Indian troops cannot defeat the Chinese People's Liberation Army.
>
> Now the Indians place their hopes on China being unwilling to risk
> a war due to strategic concerns. They believe the US will likely
> side with India, which will exert huge psychological pressure on
> China. It seems that New Delhi does not comprehend the nature of
> the Sino-US rivalry and the meaning of strategic containment. It
> thinks Washington can influence the situation along the
> China-India border simply by issuing a pro-India statement or
> sending warships to the Indian Ocean."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

As I've said in the past, the people in China live in a fantasy world
where their military will defeat everyone else in the world, and all
that will be required is "a small-scale military operation," similar
to a victory in a brief war in 1962. That war fizzled quickly because
both countries were in a generational Recovery era, about 14 years
after the end of their respected generational crisis wars, China's
Communist Revolution and India's Partition war. In any country, there
is little desire to fight another war so soon after a generational
crisis war.

But today both countries are in generational Crisis eras, and any war
they fight will not be brief.

In fact the editor at the Global Times is probably a child who is too
young to remember another massive invasion by the Chinese into Vietnam
in 1979. That was largely a defeat for the Chinese, though they
undoubtedly thought at the beginning that it would be a victorious
"small-scale military operation."

China might also take a look at the current war in Yemen. When it
began in 2014, it was supposed to be a "small-scale military
operation" by Saudi Arabia to wrest control of the country's capital
city Sanaa from the Houthis. Instead, that war is still going today.
Global Times (Beijing, 5-Aug) and Global Times (Beijing, 7-Aug) and Reuters

Related Articles

• China further escalates the rhetoric threatening India over Doklam Plateau (05-Aug-2017)
  
  
• China escalates its military threats over its border dispute with India at Doklam Plateau (26-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Rex Tillerson warns China is risking 'open conflict' with the United States (03-Aug-2017)
  

****
**** Trump threatens North Korea with 'fire and fury'
****

President Donald Trump on Tuesday threatened North Korea with "fire
and fury," in response to North Korean threats. A statement from the
Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) says the following, where "DPRK"
refers to North Korea and "UNSC" refers to the United Nations Security
Council:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The DPRK is taking measures to strengthen the
> self-defensive nuclear deterrence in order to counter the policy
> of extreme hostility and nuclear threat against it from the US,
> the biggest nuclear weapons state of the world.
>
> As long as the US hostile policy and nuclear threat continue, the
> DPRK, no matter who may say what, will never place its
> self-defensive nuclear deterrence on the negotiation table or
> flinch an inch from the road chosen by itself, the road of
> bolstering up the state nuclear force.
>
> Second, now that the US did forge the "sanctions resolution" by
> manipulating the UNSC to obliterate the DPRK's sovereignty and
> rights to existence and development, the DPRK will move into its
> resolute action of justice as it had already clarified ....
>
> As the gangsters of the US remain unabated in their mean and
> heinous provocation, the DPRK will further increase the strength
> of justice to thoroughly eradicate the cause of war and aggression
> and never back away from this fight to a finish. ...
>
> Third, the DPRK will make the US pay dearly for all the heinous
> crimes it commits against the state and people of this
> country. ...
>
> The US is sadly mistaken if it considers its mainland a safe haven
> for being on the other side of the ocean."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This statement was followed by reports that North Korea has developed
a nuclear weapon small enough to fit into the tip of the
intercontinental missiles that they have been testing.

President Trump made the following response at a meeting where
journalists were present:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"North Korea best not make any more threats to the
> United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world
> has never seen.
>
> He [Kim Jong-un] has been very threatening beyond a normal
> statement.
>
> And, as I said, they will be met with fire, fury, and, frankly,
> power — the likes of which the world has never seen
> before."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Last week, Trump said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We will handle North Korea. We are gonna be able to
> handle them. It will be handled."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

North Korea responded by on Wednesday by saying that they're
considering an attack on the American base in Guam.

So there have been numerous threats from numerous sources in numerous
countries around the world in the last few days, as the Clash of
Civilizations world war approaches. Newsmax and Reuters

Related Articles

• South Korea approves new THAAD deployment after North Korean missile test (30-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Russia, India, Japan prepare for war with China (13-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Bhutan, Doklam Plateau,
Hu Zhiyong, Jawaharlal Nehru, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

And now North Korea is threatening to nuke Guam, apparently.

Honestly, if they did that, it would give us good reason to nuke all their nuclear facilities, which would arguably be a good thing.

I wonder if the crisis will just be a series of "limited" nuclear exchanges like that until there's only one nuclear power left.

[tg63]

(08-09-2017, 10:44 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: And now North Korea is threatening to nuke Guam, apparently.

Honestly, if they did that, it would give us good reason to nuke all their nuclear facilities, which would arguably be a good thing.

I wonder if the crisis will just be a series of "limited" nuclear exchanges like that until there's only one nuclear power left.

ummmmm, it's absurd that this needs to be stated, but no, a war that involves the use of nuclear weapons would not be a good thing.

[Eric the Green]

(08-09-2017, 11:07 AM)tg63 Wrote:

(08-09-2017, 10:44 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: And now North Korea is threatening to nuke Guam, apparently.

Honestly, if they did that, it would give us good reason to nuke all their nuclear facilities, which would arguably be a good thing.

I wonder if the crisis will just be a series of "limited" nuclear exchanges like that until there's only one nuclear power left.

ummmmm, it's absurd that this needs to be stated, but no, a war that involves the use of nuclear weapons would not be a good thing.

Right. It seems tempting indeed to think we could resolve this by nuking their nukes. But, it may not be so good.

China is still North Korea's ally. Would they take kindly to the USA nuking its ally? What might they do, then? What would Russia do? Attack Eastern Europe? Where does this stop? Nuclear winter?

Would it stop N. Korea's program? Might they still have facilities we didn't take out? Wouldn't they then be even more disposed toward developing them and using them? How many nuke strikes will this take?

If N. Korea is nuked, don't you think this would mean war? What do we do about an expected Northern invasion and bombing of the South, with their huge army? Doesn't this mean a full-scale Korean War? Wouldn't China get involved if the USA and South Korea threatened to take over the North?

That said, if Un bombs Guam, I don't think we'd have a choice but to strike. But, this would not be a good outcome. We'd better try diplomacy. We can offer to stop our military exercizes in Korea if they stop nuke testing. If Un is interested in making his state more like China economically, the USA and China could offer to help if they get off the nuclear path.

[Warren Dew]

(08-09-2017, 11:07 AM)tg63 Wrote:

(08-09-2017, 10:44 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: And now North Korea is threatening to nuke Guam, apparently.

Honestly, if they did that, it would give us good reason to nuke all their nuclear facilities, which would arguably be a good thing.

I wonder if the crisis will just be a series of "limited" nuclear exchanges like that until there's only one nuclear power left.

ummmmm, it's absurd that this needs to be stated, but no, a war that involves the use of nuclear weapons would not be a good thing.

By the generational theory, we're starting a crisis period.  Nuclear war is almost certainly coming anyway.  Better to nuke their nuclear facilities now, than to have them nuke our cities later.

[Warren Dew]

(08-09-2017, 06:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: China is still North Korea's ally. Would they take kindly to the USA nuking its ally? What might they do, then? What would Russia do? Attack Eastern Europe? Where does this stop? Nuclear winter?

It's highly questionable whether China is still North Korea's ally, after Kim Jong Un executed all the high level Chinese sympathizers in the North Korean government.  What is certain is that China's at greater risk than we are with respect to North Korea's nukes.  Getting rid of North Korea's nukes without regime change, giving China a nonnuclear buffer state, is pretty much their ideal situation.

As for Russia, Putin is not stupid enough to start a nuclear war over a two bit state he could hardly care less about.

Quote:Would it stop N. Korea's program? Might they still have facilities we didn't take out? Wouldn't they then be even more disposed toward developing them and using them? How many nuke strikes will this take?

They might have stray missiles we didn't take out, but it's the production facilities we care about, and with nukes, we could be pretty certain of destroying them.  And if he tries to rebuild the production facilities, we've got plenty of nukes.

Quote:If N. Korea is nuked, don't you think this would mean war? What do we do about an expected Northern invasion and bombing of the South, with their huge army? Doesn't this mean a full-scale Korean War? Wouldn't China get involved if the USA and South Korea threatened to take over the North?

This is exactly why our targets should be the nuclear facilities, and not the regime.  Kim Jong Un isn't stupid; he knows that invading and shelling the South would mean the end of his regime as well.  He's extremely unlikely to risk it.

And if he did, we should remove the regime, and allow China to install the replacement, on the condition that it be nonnuclear.  That should eliminate any risk of direct war with China.

Quote:That said, if Un bombs Guam, I don't think we'd have a choice but to strike. But, this would not be a good outcome. We'd better try diplomacy. We can offer to stop our military exercizes in Korea if they stop nuke testing. If Un is interested in making his state more like China economically, the USA and China could offer to help if they get off the nuclear path.

We could put our military exercises on hold if they put their missile tests on hold at a point short of full success, for a few months of negotiation.  If he's willing to destroy his nuclear capability in return for investment, great.  However, we should not go back to letting him extort economic aid just for keeping his program on hold; he needs to unwind it.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Aug-17 World View -- Turkey reshuffles military in preparation to attack Kurds in northern Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey reshuffles top military leaders in preparation for action in Syria
  
• Turkey announces plans for military action against Kurds in northern Syria
  

****
**** Turkey reshuffles top military leaders in preparation for action in Syria
****


Young men stand on a Turkish army tank in Ankara on July 16, 2016, the day after the attempted coup. (Reuters)

Heads rolled at the top of Turkey's military last week, as the army,
air force and navy commanders were all replaced.

The replacements came a year after the aborted military coup of July
15 of last year. Since the coup, over 100,000 people have been fired
or jailed, in a variety of professions, often with no evidence.

The military came under special scrutiny, since renegade military
officers led the aborted coup. Immediately after the coup attempt,
the government ordered the firing of 149 generations, - nearly half of
the armed forces' entire contingent of 358 - for alleged complicity in
the coup attempt.

This hollowing of Turkey's armed force is blamed for Turkey's poor
performance in Operation Euphrates Shield last year and this. That
operation used Syrian rebel militias supported by Turkey's army and
air force with the objective of defeating the the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) and also of pushing the Kurds back
east of the Euphrates River. Turkey was only minimally successful
with both objectives.

Turkey is committed to preventing the Kurds from gaining a foothold in
northern Syria, and in particular to preventing the creation of an
independent Kurdish state called Rojava. The Kurdish terrorist group
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has been conducting an insurgency in
Turkey since the 1980s, and has perpetrated large terrorist attacks in
Turkish cities during the last three years.

Speaking at a meeting last week of Turkey's Supreme Military Council
(YAS), Prime Minister Binali Yildirim highlighted that Turkey
continues to fight terrorist groups with determination.

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The fight against the PKK has been carried out very
> successfully especially in the last one year. The strategy for the
> offensive that was decided early August last year and the work in
> full coordination with the Turkish Armed Forces and other security
> units have given the expected result. Last year we decided in the
> beginning of August to lead the struggle and to work in full
> coordination with the Turkish Armed Forces and other security
> units. The struggle against the PKK has reached significant
> levels. ...
>
> Ongoing instability along the countries on our southern border, as
> well as the lack of proper governance and civil war pose the
> biggest threat to our fight against terrorism."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Hurriyet (Ankara) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and AFP (28-July-2016)

Related Articles

• Sharply divided Turkey approves referendum giving Erdogan near-dictatorial powers (17-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Attempted army coup in Turkey collapses within hours (17-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Turkey commemorates first anniversary of attempted coup (21-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media (06-Mar-2016)
  

****
**** Turkey announces plans for military action against Kurds in northern Syria
****

A week after a reshuffle of Turkey's top military commanders,
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned of a coming military
operation in northern Syria against Kurdish fighters.

In a speech on Saturday, Erdogan said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We will not leave the separatist organization in
> peace in both Iraq and Syria. We know that if we do not drain the
> swamp, we cannot get rid of flies."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The fight to expel ISIS from Raqqa, its Syrian stronghold, has been
led by the People's Protection Units (YPG), consisting mostly of
Kurdish fighters, backed by the United States. The US has been
working with the YPG because the Kurds have proven themselves to be
the most effective fighters in Syria against ISIS.

Turkey is infuriated by this choice, because they consider all Kurds
in Syria to be linked to the PKK. Turkey had offered its own fighters
to expel ISIS from Raqqa, but after Turkey's poor performance last
year, the YPG were the obvious choice.

Turkey has been particularly infuriated because the US is supplying
weapons to the YPG, and Turkey fears that these weapons will be used
against Turkey, once the Raqqa operation is completed.

These concerns became acute since YPG forces on Saturday destroyed a
tank "belonging to terrorist groups under the Turkish army’s command,"
referring to the rebel forces that Turkey used to fight Operation
Euphrates Shield. This event occurred in Afrin, a city outside of
Raqqa. The YPG used an anti-tank guided missile system (ATGM) to
destroy the tank. The ATGM may have been supplied by the US, but the
YPG could have obtained the ATGM system from other sources as well.

Turkey is also concerned about the presence of al-Qaeda linked forces
in Idlib, near Turkey's border. These forces are the Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham, formerly known as the al-Nusra Front. Turkey is concerned
about an imminent threat that can be posed by al-Nusra elements
against Turkey and of a possible influx of refugees into Turkey
because of attacks by the al-Nusra militias. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Navy Times and Reuters

Related Articles

• Turkey's assault on Kurds in Afrin, Syria, may jeopardize the battle in Raqqa (14-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Turkey builds a northern Syria 'National Army' from Free Syrian Army militias (31-May-2017)
  
  
• Turkey's warplanes strike Kurdish militias fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq (26-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Operation Euphrates Shield, Raqqa,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Rojava, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Binali Yildirim,
anti-tank guided missile systems, ATGM, Idlib, Afrin,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Liberation of the Levant Organization,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[tg63]

(08-09-2017, 10:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-09-2017, 11:07 AM)tg63 Wrote:

(08-09-2017, 10:44 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: And now North Korea is threatening to nuke Guam, apparently.

Honestly, if they did that, it would give us good reason to nuke all their nuclear facilities, which would arguably be a good thing.

I wonder if the crisis will just be a series of "limited" nuclear exchanges like that until there's only one nuclear power left.

ummmmm, it's absurd that this needs to be stated, but no, a war that involves the use of nuclear weapons would not be a good thing.

By the generational theory, we're starting a crisis period.  Nuclear war is almost certainly coming anyway.  Better to nuke their nuclear facilities now, than to have them nuke our cities later.

I certainly accept that we are in a crisis period, but I don't accept that that by definition means that nuclear war is "almost a certainty" ... or that we shouldn't do everything possible to prevent it.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Aug-17 World View -- UN Human Rights chief warns of 'genocide' and 'ethnic cleansing' in Central African Republic

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Six Red Cross workers and 30 civilians killed in Central African Republic massacre
  
• UN Human Rights chief warns of 'genocide' and 'ethnic cleansing' in Central African Republic
  

****
**** Six Red Cross workers and 30 civilians killed in Central African Republic massacre
****


Displacement camp in Central African Republic for people fleeing their homes to escape violence (HRW)

At least 30 civilians, including six Red Cross workers were massacred
on August 7 in the town of Gambo in southeastern Central African
Republic (CAR). The violence is blamed on the militias from the
Muslim Union for Peace in the Central African Republic (l'Union pour
la Paix en Centrafrique, UPC) which broke off from the Muslim Séléka
militias in 2014.

According to Antoine Mbao-Bogo, the president of the Central African
Red Cross:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"In principle, we shouldn't be targets. I'm actually
> in tears right now, and the entire Red Cross is appalled and
> worried.
>
> We don't have guns, or any kinds of weapon.. we're just trying to
> do our job, which is to help people. Among those killed last week,
> there were pregnant women killed. They'd come to the health center
> to give birth. And they had their throats cut. This is something
> that goes beyond my understanding."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This illustrates how younger generations don't understand what's going
on. The survivors of World War II saw something like this happen many
times, so they wouldn't be surprised by it today, but those survivors
are all gone now, and the people left behind have absolutely no clue
how the world works.

Fighting has been intense in that entire region of CAR, around the
town of Bangassou, where around 2,000 Muslims have been sheltering in
a Catholic church since violence in May. The Church is surrounded by
mainly Christian anti-balaka militia who are threatening to kill them.
Fighting in other nearby towns has led to the deaths of at least 60
people in the last two weeks.

Many people are blaming France for the violence, because they withdrew
the French peacekeeping mission Sangaris earlier this year, as we reported a few months ago.
There's a
UN force is known as MINUSCA, which stands for Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic.

French general Dominique Trinquand, the former chief of the military
mission to the United Nations, said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The problem is that the UN troops alone are not
> mobile enough, meaning that when you've got an incident somewhere,
> they've got to intervene, but they usually are too late, after the
> killing of people there has happened. But Sangaris was ready to
> intervene with helicopters, very quickly and so it was a sort of a
> safeguard for the UN forces inside the country.
>
> The other important point is that a UN force is fine, but when
> you have soldiers who are not able to interact with the population
> then you've got a problem. A lot of the soldiers inside the UN
> force are not French speakers, and so they're not able to discuss
> with the people and to have the right information in order to
> react very quickly."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

French troops have been recalled back to France, for Operation
Sentinelle, after France was hit by a string of terror attacks.
Radio France Internationale (RFI) and Al Jazeera and ReliefWeb



****
**** UN Human Rights chief warns of 'genocide' and 'ethnic cleansing' in Central African Republic
****

Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, Stephen O'Brien
warned that he's seeing "the early warning signs of genocide," and
that various armed groups "have the intention to ethnically cleanse"
the country of their enemies. According to O'Brien:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It was clear to me that the growth of intercommunal
> violence, this pretense, perhaps it's sincere, I don't know, of
> using ethnic and confessional identity as a cause for killing,
> brutality, torture, threatening behavior, that these were the
> early signs, the early warning signs, of what could rapidly turn
> into a genocide.
>
> And we're all now coming together to do what we can to urge
> greater presence of the UN for the protection of civilians in what
> is becoming a very rapid, flare-up in various parts of the
> southeast, central southeast, the east as well as the northwest of
> the Central African Republic. ... We must act now, not pare down
> the UN's effort, and pray we don't live to regret
> it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This may be a surprise to O'Brien, but it won't be a surprise at
all to long-time readers of Generational Dynamics, as CAR is in
a generational crisis war that peacekeepers will have little
effect on, and so will not end until there's a devastating,
explosive genocidal climax. Peacekeepers may get leaders to
sign a peace agreement, which has already happened several times
in the CAR war, but this is a war led by the people, not the
leaders or politicians.

The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, when François Bozizé, the
Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013
by Michel Djotodia, a Muslim, who became president and served until
January 2014.

After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Séléka militias
began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian
constituencies of the deposed François Bozizé. In December 2013,
French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Séléka
militias.

The actions of the French troops backfired. When the Muslim Séléka
troops were disarmed, the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into
the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge
against the Sélékas. Since then, both Christians and Muslims have
been committing atrocities, and it's become a full-scale generational
crisis war. Thousands have been killed, and millions have been
displaced.

During 2014, the peacekeepers were able to bring the violence somewhat
under control in Bangui, the country's capital, but CAR is a huge
country, and violence continued in various regions. The violence
began to slow down because the country became effectively partitioned
into Muslim and Christian regions, with millions of people fleeing
from their homes.

However, the Séléka militias began an intra-Muslim "fraticidal"
conflict. One faction was the Union for Peace in the Central African
Republic (l'Union pour la Paix en Centrafrique, UPC), consisting
mainly of militia from ethnic Fulani, who are cattle herders. The
other faction was the Popular Front for the Renaissance in the Central
African Republic (Front Populaire pour la Renaissance de la
Centrafrique, FPRC), dominated by ethnic Gula and Runga who are
farmers.

As I've described many times in Central African Republic, Rwanda,
Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America in the 1800s, is
that in country after country, there a classic and recurring battle
between herders and farmers. The farmers accuse the herders of
letting the cattle eat their crops, while the herders accuse the
farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers
put up fences, then the herders knock them down.

So at the present time you have sectarian clashes between Muslims and
Christians, and you have ethnic inter-Muslim clashes between farmers
and herders. There are millions of people involved, and the United
Nations would like a few hundred peacekeepers to bring peace to all of
them. This is a typical United Nations fantasy, completely out of
touch with reality and the real world. The French apparently reached
this conclusion last year, when they announced the pullout of their
Sangaris mission.

As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was
the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which
was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational
Crisis era, where a new crisis civil war has already started. This
war will not end until there's an explosive, genocidal climax. Maybe
O'Brien should learn a little history before he starts talking about
the peacekeeping budget. Deutsche Welle and AFP and United Nations Humanitarian Agency and Human Rights Watch
and Elizabeth Kendal blog (18-May)

Related Articles

• Central African Republic war morphs from religious to ethnic war (01-Mar-2017)
  
  
• New armed militia emerges in Central African Republic: Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation (3R) (06-Jan-2017)
  
  
• France pulls out of Central African Republic as sectarian violence grows (01-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Mob rule in Central African Republic as Christians crave revenge (20-Jan-2014)
  
  
• Renewed violence in Central African Republic despite peacekeepers (11-Oct-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, CAR,
Gambo, Antoine Mbao-Bogo, Bangassou, Dominique Trinquand,
Bangui, Bria, Bambari, François Bozizé, Michel Djotodia,
Séléka, anti-Balaka, Fulani, Gula, Runga, MINUSCA,
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic,
Front Populaire pour la Renaissance de la Centrafrique, FPRC,
Popular Front for the Renaissance in the Central African Republic,
l'Union pour la Paix en Centrafrique, UPC,
Union for Peace in the Central African Republic,
Stephen O'Brien, Sangaris,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,
Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Aug-17 World View -- China and India prepare for border war at Doklam Plateau

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India reinforces its military in preparation for war
  
• Bhutan makes it clear to China that its ally is India
  
• SCMP: China and India on brink of war that could spread to the Indian Ocean
  

****
**** India reinforces its military in preparation for war
****


Chinese soldier stands guard on the Chinese side of the border crossing between India and China. (AFP)

India's military have raised the alert level in the region surrounding
the Doklam Plateau, along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) the forms
the border between India and China.

For almost two months, China and India have each had 300 soldiers just
100 meters apart on the plateau, 3,000 meters above sea level. India
is not increasing its troop strength on the plateau itself, but is
bring troops into bases nearby, and is raising the alert level in
preparation for war.

The border dispute involving China, India and Bhutan over the Doklam
Plateau continues to be unresolved, and in fact appears to be
escalating. As we've been reporting
a standoff between India's army and China's army on
Doklam plateau in the tiny country of Bhutan. China is attempting to
annex the region, and on June 16 sent Chinese troops and construction
workers to begin road construction. Bhutan troops tried to prevent
the Chinese troop incursion, but they were overrun. India sent in its
own troops, saying that it did so when Bhutan invoked a treaty with
India and asked for help, resulting in a standoff.

No bullets have been fired yet, but as we recently reported,
China appears to have set an August 19
deadline for India to withdraw its troops from the Doklam Plateau.

Even if August 19 passes with no military action, there's another hard
deadline: The Communist People's Congress in Beijing in November. If
the standoff hasn't been resolved in time for that meeting, it could
be a major humiliation for China's president Xi Jinping.

In addition to setting deadlines, China has been using every possible
form of psychological warfare on India to try to force them to
withdraw their soldiers, and allow the Chinese military to invade and
annex Doklam Plateau. Some of the techniques used by China include
the following:

• Claim that India has invaded Chinese territory, even though
  India's troops are on the Doklam Plateau, which belongs to
  Bhutan.
  
  
• Warn India to avoid a repeat of their loss in a 1962 border war,
  without mentioning China's loss in a 1967 border war.
  
  
• Warn India that if it doesn't back down, then China will invade
  Jammu and Kashmir.

India has moved its army to a state of "no war, no peace," which is an
alert state where soldiers take up positions that are earmarked for
them in the event of a war. Reuters and Indian Express and India Times and Financial Express and International Business Times (India)

****
**** Bhutan makes it clear to China that its ally is India
****

From the beginning of this crisis, China's media have insisted that
Bhutan and China have no dispute, implying that the two countries
agree that the Doklam Plateau belongs to China, not Bhutan.

Furthermore, China's media have insisted that Bhutan did not want
India's intervention, and that Indian troops had entered the region in
order to gain control of Bhutan.

Bhutan has in fact tried to avoid inflaming the situation, and has
said little, hoping that India and China find a peaceful resolution.

However, on Thursday, the government of Bhutan issued a statement made
its position very clear:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Our position on the border issue of Doklam is very
> clear. Please refer to our statement which has been published on
> the web site of Bhutan's Foreign Ministry on June 29,
> 2017."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The referenced June 29 statement is as follows:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Press Release June 29, 2017
>
> In view of the many queries raised recently in the media regarding
> the Bhutan – China boundary in the Doklam area the Ministry of
> Foreign Affairs would like to convey the following:
>
> On 16th June 2017, the Chinese Army started constructing a
> motorable road from Dokola in the Doklam area towards the Bhutan
> Army camp at Zompelri. Boundary talks are ongoing between Bhutan
> and China and we have written agreements of 1988 and 1998 stating
> that the two sides agree to maintain peace and tranquility in
> their border areas pending a final settlement on the boundary
> question, and to maintain status quo on the boundary as before
> March 1959. The agreements also state that the two sides will
> refrain from taking unilateral action, or use of force, to change
> the status quo of the boundary.
>
> Bhutan has conveyed to the Chinese side, both on the ground and
> through the diplomatic channel, that the construction of the road
> inside Bhutanese territory is a direct violation of the agreements
> and affects the process of demarcating the boundary between our
> two countries. Bhutan hopes that the status quo in the Doklam area
> will be maintained as before 16 June 2017."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Once again, we have a situation where China's claims are simply lies.
As usual, we have to point out that China has lied repeatedly and
continuously about its claims and criminal activities in the South
China Sea, and so there is no reason to believe any claims they make
about Bhutan's territory on the Doklam Plateau.

As we've said before, China is a highly militarized international
criminal state, but at some point they'll go one step to far, and
bring an enormous catastrophe on themselves and the world. India Times (8-Aug) and Kashmir Monitor and Bhutan Foreign Ministry

****
**** SCMP: China and India on brink of war that could spread to the Indian Ocean
****

Among Chinese media publications, we often quote China Daily and
Global Times. Both are strictly controlled by the Chinese Communist
Party, though Global Times is far more nationalistic.

The Hong-Kong based South China Morning Post (SCMP) is a bit more
independent than the other two. That's not to say that they would
directly confront and contradict Beijing policy -- if they did,
Beijing would probably have the editors abducted, thrown into a pit
and tortured. But they are able to print analyses that are a bit more
balanced than the pure propaganda of the other two.

According to an SCMP analysis, both China and India are preparing for
an armed conflict in the event that negotiations fail.

The article quotes a Chinese military source:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The PLA [People's Liberation Army] will not seek to
> fight a ground war with Indian troops early on. Instead it will
> deploy aircraft and strategic missiles to paralyse Indian mountain
> divisions stationed in the Himalayas on the border with China.
> [Indian troops will probably hold out for] no more than a
> week."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Chinese military sources believe that any conflict will be controlled,
and not spill over into other disputed areas, of which there are
currently three along the 2,000 km border.

However, an Indian defense expert, says that a conflict will not be
limited, and could extend into the Indian Ocean.

China is vulnerable in the maritime area, because China is heavily
reliant on imported fuel and, according to figures published by state
media, more than 80 per cent of its oil imports travel via the Indian
Ocean or Strait of Malacca.

Dr Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy of the National University of Singapore
says:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Any Chinese military adventurism will get a fitting
> reply from the Indian military.
>
> Certainly, it will be detrimental for both, but if Beijing
> escalates [the conflict], it will not be limited. Perhaps, it may
> extend to the maritime domain as well.
>
> If China engages in a military offensive against India, New Delhi
> will take all necessary measures ... [and will] respond to Chinese
> actions in its own way. Why only a border war? It could escalate
> to a full-scale India-China war."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)

Related Articles

• China further escalates the rhetoric threatening India over Doklam Plateau (05-Aug-2017)
  
  
• China escalates its military threats over its border dispute with India at Doklam Plateau (26-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Rex Tillerson warns China is risking 'open conflict' with the United States (03-Aug-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bhutan, Doklam Plateau, India, China,
Line of Actual Control, LAC, Kashmir,
China Daily, Global Times, South China Morning Post, Hong Kong,
Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy

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[John J. Xenakis]

(08-10-2017, 02:38 PM)tg63 Wrote: > I certainly accept that we are in a crisis period, but I don't
> accept that that by definition means that nuclear war is "almost a
> certainty" ... or that we shouldn't do everything possible to
> prevent it.

With regard to the question of whether a Crisis era requires a crisis
war, I've looked at hundreds of these situations throughout history,
and I've reached some definite conclusions.

The First Turning Recovery Era (or "high") has very specific social
and behavioral characteristics that are vastly different from the
previous Crisis era. It takes enormous events to force an entire
population to change from Fourth Turning to First Turning social and
behavioral characteristics.

In order for a crisis to be powerful enough to bring about these
enormous social changes through the entire population, it has to have
a Regeneracy at the beginning of the crisis and a Climax at the end of
the crisis, with a Moral Deterioration in between:

• Regeneracy: The Regeneracy has to be so serious that it creates
  civic unity for the first time since the end of the previous crisis.
  The Regeneracy unifies the entire country behind the leader.
  
  During the Obama administration, I used to get a furious response from
  conservatives by telling them that if there were a regeneracy event
  (such as a nuclear attack on America), they would be unified behind
  President Obama and would do everything to support him. I remember a
  couple of people saying that they would rather shoot Obama than
  support him in any way.
  
  Anyway, now I say the same kind of thing to liberals: If there were a
  regeneracy, then liberals would be unified behind Trump. I'm sure
  there are liberals who would say they would rather shoot and kill him
  (some are saying that already), but that's how serious a crisis has to
  be during a Crisis era. It has to be serious enough to cause
  vitriolic political differences to be put aside in order to preserve
  the nation or society and its way of life.
  
  
• Moral Deterioration: During the crisis period from Regeneracy to
  Climax, typically 4-5 years, the population becomes increasingly
  desperate and impatient for a victory. If you remember 9/11, then
  imagine what it would be like to have a 9/11 attack every day for
  years (like the bombings of London in WW II). At the beginning of
  this period, the rules of war are observed and individual human lives
  are still valued. By the time the climax is reached, the only thing
  that matters is the survival of the country or society and its way of
  life. The value of an individual human life goes to zero, and any
  number of individuals are expendable. For all participants in the
  war, genocide and atrocities, particularly torture and rapes, become
  increasingly acceptable and excusable.
  
  
• Climax: Finally, the crisis has to end with what I call an
  "explosive climax." This might be literally explosive, such as nuking
  Hiroshima. But more often it's a genocidal atrocity that's so
  horrific that both the perpetrators and victims spend the rest of
  their lives trying to prevent it from ever happening again.

It's the crisis climax causes the transition from the Crisis Era to
the Recovery Era. There are only two things that I know of that can
meet these requirements: A massive crisis war, and a massive forced
relocation.

For those who believe that it's possible to prevent a crisis war: It's
completely impossible to do so.

To explain this better, let's take a side trip from geopolitics to
global finance. An analogy in the area of finance is the "Minsky
Moment."

http://www.businessinsider.com/minsky-mo...sis-2017-6

The explanation of a Minsky Moment is as follows: The authorities,
like the central bank and the regulators, do everything possible to
create an environment of economic growth and prosperity, and low
economic risk. The more successful the authorities are, and the
longer the periods of growth and prosperity are, the more money
investors borrow to make risky investments. In time, the growth in
debt and risky investments overwhelms the attempts by the authorities
to keep the economy safe. That's the "Minsky Moment." Instead of
just one bankruptcy, which the central banks can contain, there's a
massive chain reaction, where a bankruptcy of one firm triggers
bankruptcies among its bondholders, stockholders and investors,
resulting at bankruptcies at other firms. At that point, there's a
massive chain reaction of bankruptcies that the central banks can't
handle. The chain reactions can last for years as they did from
1929-32.

In summary, the more successful the government is in temporarily
preventing a financial crash, the bigger the crash is when it comes.

Returning to geopolitics, there's an analogy to the Minsky moment. We
have the United Nations, Nato, the International Criminal Court, and
all sorts of other things to reduce the risk of war, but the more
successful these efforts are to prevent war, the more risky things
people do. We see this with Russia in Crimea, China in the South
China Sea and with North Korea's nuclear weapons development. We're
seeing a kind of "chain reaction" in geopolitical threats. The United
Nations Security Council has already become completely worthless in
trying to contain them. The United States, as policeman of the world,
is still only marginally successful in containing them, although
Donald Trump seems to be aware of the problem and is trying to stop
the chain reaction through new techniques (such as "locked and loaded"
threats).

Nonetheless, just as the central banks can't contain the financial
chain reaction, the UN and US can't contain the geopolitical chain
reaction that's going on now.

If a country does not have a crisis war during its Fourth Turning
Crisis era, that doesn't mean that a crisis (crisis war) has been
avoided, and it doesn't mean that the country transitions into a First
Turning Recovery era anyway (since there's nothing to recover from).
It simply means that the crisis (crisis war) has been postponed, and
the country enters a distinctly different Fifth Turning, like Mexico,
Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Russia. But sooner or later, the
crisis war arrives, and cannot be prevented.

In summary, the more successful the government is in temporarily
preventing a crisis war, the bigger the crisis war is when it comes.

The following is a Generational Diagonal Flow diagram from 2004 that
describes the transitions through the four turnings:



The shading indicates that during the crisis era, all generations are
unified behind the leader, and there are no serious differences
between the generations. Starting with the Recovery (Austerity) era,
new generations come of age that are distinctly different from the
unified generations of the crisis war.

[Cynic Hero '86]

Xenakis' GD analysis of the current crisis is flawed because it omits possibilities. First It mentions the threat of a North Korean Attack yet never mentions the possibility of the US striking first to disarm North Korea by nuclear strike. Regarding the Indian Border Xenakis mentions China either attacking and grabbing the disputed territories or grabbing those territories and miscalculating causing a much larger war than anticipated, BUT Xenakis never mentions the possibility of India striking first or China attacking the border and getting repulsed possibly losing strategic positions at the border as a result.

[Warren Dew]

(08-12-2017, 01:04 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Xenakis' GD analysis of the current crisis is flawed because it omits possibilities. First It mentions the threat of a North Korean Attack yet never mentions the possibility of the US striking first to disarm North Korea by nuclear strike. Regarding the Indian Border Xenakis mentions China either attacking and grabbing the disputed territories or grabbing those territories and miscalculating causing a much larger war than anticipated, BUT Xenakis never mentions the possibility of India striking first or China attacking the border and getting repulsed possibly losing strategic positions at the border as a result.

He was a little fairer this time in acknowledging Crimea as an example of this kind of pushing the limits.

(08-12-2017, 09:55 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ... the more
successful these efforts are to prevent war, the more risky things
people do.  We see this with Russia in Crimea, China in the South
China Sea and with North Korea's nuclear weapons development.

But yes, the US should be included; the Iraq war might be a good example.  And yes, India and others are also candidates for performing the precipitating event.

[John J. Xenakis]

That's like blaming the Chicago police for the 2290 shootings in
Chicago so far this year.

http://heyjackass.com/

America is policeman of the world. When Russia invaded Crimea, it was
to annex it. When the US invaded Iraq, it was for benevolent reasons
- to save millions of people from WMDs. It was never to annex Iraq.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(08-12-2017, 02:42 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: America is policeman of the world.  When Russia invaded Crimea, it was
to annex it.  When the US invaded Iraq, it was for benevolent reasons
- to save millions of people from WMDs.  It was never to annex Iraq.

That is the reason that Iraq war never had the possibility of succeeding the way it had been hoped originally. Because of the flawed mission we could not utilize the oil and we were stuck protecting Iraqis from saddam loyalists and insurgents. Had the invasion been purely about removing a hostile leader ship and punishing Iraq by taking and using their oil, it would have turned out much better.

[Cynic Hero '86]

Regarding North Korea, a north Korean strike on let's say guam would be a perfect opportunity to launch a disarming retaliatory strike. Such would be an escalation but would then lead to deescalation. The only way the GD predicted version of the korean crisis can occur is if the US just sits there, backs down and does nothing and North Korea launched an unprovoked surprise attack later on when the north Korean forces have gained more capabilities and have become fully ready. Given that trump has pledged not to allow that to occur, a first strike against North Korea is very much possible in the coming days.

[Warren Dew]

(08-12-2017, 02:42 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: That's like blaming the Chicago police for the 2290 shootings in
Chicago so far this year.

http://heyjackass.com/

America is policeman of the world.  When Russia invaded Crimea, it was
to annex it.  When the US invaded Iraq, it was for benevolent reasons
- to save millions of people from WMDs.  It was never to annex Iraq.

I don't disagree with what you say.  However, even justifiable events can contribute to the general escalating trend, or be the final precipitating event.

It's like the Los Angeles riots after the Rodney King incident - I wouldn't say we could blame the police for the riots, but one can still say it was the police action against King that precipitated the riots.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Aug-17 World View -- Japan will shoot down N. Korean missiles via 'collective self-defense'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North Korea threatens US bases on island of Guam
  
• Japan to deploy more advanced PAC-3 Patriot Missiles to defend U.S.
  
• Japan's government will invoke 'collective self-defense' to defend the United States
  

****
**** North Korea threatens US bases on island of Guam
****


A Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile battery at the Defense Ministry in Tokyo.

On Wednesday of last week, the start-run North Korean Central News
Agency (KCNA) reported that the US strategic bombers at the US
military bases on the island of Guam "get on the nerves of the DPRK
[North Korea]", and therefore the KPA [Korean People's Army] is making
plans for a missile attack:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The KPA [Korean People's Army] Strategic Force is now
> carefully examining the operational plan for making an enveloping
> fire at the areas around Guam with medium-to-long-range strategic
> ballistic rocket Hwasong-12 in order to contain the U.S. major
> military bases on Guam including the Anderson Air Force Base in
> which the U.S. strategic bombers, which get on the nerves of the
> DPRK and threaten and blackmail it through their frequent visits
> to the sky above south Korea, are stationed and to send a serious
> warning signal to the U.S.
>
> The plan is to be soon reported to the Supreme Command soon after
> going through full examination and completion and will be put into
> practice in a multi-concurrent and consecutive way any moment once
> Kim Jong Un, supreme commander of the nuclear force of the DPRK,
> makes a decision.
>
> The execution of this plan will offer an occasion for the Yankees
> to be the first to experience the might of the strategic weapons
> of the DPRK closest.
>
> Explicitly speaking again, the strategic weapons which the DPRK
> manufactured at the cost of blood and sweat, risking everything,
> are not a bargaining thing for getting acknowledgement from others
> and for bartering for anything, but they serve as substantial
> military means for resolutely countering the U.S. political and
> economic pressure and military threat as what has been observed
> now."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

On Thursday, KCNA "clarified" the statement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"As already clarified, the Strategic Force of the KPA
> is seriously examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam
> through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range
> strategic ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy forces
> on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to
> the U.S.
>
> On Tuesday, the KPA Strategic Force through a statement of its
> spokesman fully warned the U.S. against its all-round sanctions on
> the DPRK and moves of maximizing military threats to it. But the
> U.S. president at a golf links again let out a load of nonsense
> about "fire and fury," failing to grasp the on-going grave
> situation. This is extremely getting on the nerves of the
> infuriated Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA. ...
>
> The Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA will cross the
> sky above Shimane, Hiroshima and Kochi Prefectures of Japan. They
> will fly 3 356.7 km for 1 065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40
> km away from Guam.
>
> The KPA Strategic Force will finally complete the plan until mid
> August and report it to the commander-in-chief of the DPRK nuclear
> force and wait for his order.
>
> We keep closely watching the speech and behavior of the
> U.S."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

President Donald Trump responded by threatening to unleash "fire and
fury" on North Korea, and later added that the military options are
"locked and loaded." Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) and CBS News

Related Articles

• China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea (09-Aug-2017)
  
  
• South Korea approves new THAAD deployment after North Korean missile test (30-Jul-2017)
  
  
• North Korea launches another ballistic missile test, as talk of war increases (29-May-2017)
  
  
• North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile (22-May-2017)
  
  
• North Korea sends a message with a medium range ballistic missile test (15-May-2017)
  

****
**** Japan to deploy more advanced PAC-3 Patriot Missiles to defend U.S.
****

Leaders in Guam, South Korea, and Japan expressed hope that war is not
imminent, but they're all preparing for any eventuality.

While advising people to continue their business as usual, Guam’s
Office of Civil Defense began distributing a fact sheet entitled
"Preparing for an Imminent Missile Threat." In case a missile is
approaching, keep calm and, if you're caught outside:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Do not look at the flash or fireball — it can blind
> you. Lie flat on the ground and cover your head."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Japan is holding missile evacuation drills for the public, and is
doing a lot more: Planning to install additional Patriot Advanced
Capability-3 (PAC-3) anti-missile systems. There is particular
concern about the three prefectures that North Korea threatened: the
Shimane, Hiroshima and Kochi Prefectures.

Japan is saying that since Japan is potentially threatened by the
North Korean missiles, they are justified in shooting them down. This
would require the government to declare a "survival-threatening
situation."

Japan currently has a two-level missile defense system.

The Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) system mounted on Aegis-equipped
destroyers can shoot down incoming ballistic missiles in outer space
at a maximum altitude of about 500 kilometers. The SM-3 system is
designed to shoot down missiles traveling on a parabolic path when
they start descending.

The second layer of Japan's missile defenses are the surface-to-air
Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) guided missiles, which can
destroy targets at altitudes between 10 and 20 kilometers if SM-3
interceptor missiles are not effective. The country’s 34 PAC-3 units
attached to 17 anti-aircraft units are mostly deployed in densely
populated areas like the Tokyo metropolitan and Kyushu regions as well
as at major Self-Defense Forces bases. It's expected that Japan will
redeploy two PAC-3 systems to the prefectures threatened by North
Korea. Japan News and Japan Times and Nikkei Asian Review

****
**** Japan's government will invoke 'collective self-defense' to defend the United States
****

Article 9 of Japan's constitution, imposed on Japan by US Gen. Douglas
MacArthur at the end of World War II, renounced war and the threat or
use of force. Technically, Japan does not have the right to shoot
down North Korean missiles.

The pacifist Article 9 remains extremely controversial. Many
conservatives see it as a humiliating imposition, while liberals view
it as the basis of Japan's peace and democracy.

Prime minister Shinzo Abe has repeatedly said that the would like to
amend Article 9, but he's never had the votes to do it. However, in
2015, he was able to bring about passage of a reinterpretation of the
self-defense clause to include "collective self-defense." The old
self-defense clause of the constitution has been interpreted to permit
military action only when Japan itself is being attacked, and only on
Japanese soil. The new collective defense laws reinterpret the
self-defense clause to include "collective self-defense," which would
permit military action anywhere in the world under some circumstances
when an ally (such as the United States) is attacked. I discussed the
meaning of "collective self-defense" in detail in 2014.

Japan's Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera on Thursday said that it
would be necessary to declare a "survival-threatening situation,"
which would enable Japan to exercise its right of collective
self-defense, with a view to intercepting North Korean missiles on
behalf of Japan's ally, the United States. According Japanese
officials, certain conditions would have to be met:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"If it is judged that North Korea indicates a clear
> intention to attack the United States and starts missile launch
> preparations, an armed attack would be considered to have
> occurred. ...
>
> However, if North Korea says it’s targeting the missiles outside
> [U.S.] territorial waters, it would be difficult to call it an
> attack against the United States and declare a
> survival-threatening situation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Sputnik News (Moscow) and AP and Reuters (31-July) and Japan Times

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• Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan (05-May-2014)
  
  
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• Japan's troops in South Sudan become first test of new 'collective self-defense' policy (19-Nov-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Guam, Japan, South Korea,
Patriot Advanced Capability-3 guided missiles, PAC-3,
Standard Missile-3, SM-3, Shimane, Hiroshima, Kochi,
Shinzo Abe, collective self-defense, Itsunori Onodera

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[John J. Xenakis]

(08-12-2017, 02:42 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > That's like blaming the Chicago police for the 2290 shootings in
> Chicago so far this year.

> http://heyjackass.com/

> America is policeman of the world. When Russia invaded Crimea, it
> was to annex it. When the US invaded Iraq, it was for benevolent
> reasons - to save millions of people from WMDs. It was never to
> annex Iraq.

(08-12-2017, 07:56 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I don't disagree with what you say. However, even justifiable
> events can contribute to the general escalating trend, or be the
> final precipitating event.

> It's like the Los Angeles riots after the Rodney King incident - I
> wouldn't say we could blame the police for the riots, but one can
> still say it was the police action against King that precipitated
> the riots.

I agree with you.

Another example is that when the World Trade Center was bombed
in 1993, the reaction was to put the perpetrators on trial.

But when the World Trade Center was attacked on 9/11/2001, the
reaction was to invade Afghanistan.