Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-May-18 World View -- Israel-Iran attacks in Syria take a pause, as Turkey tightens control over Afrin

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey tightens grip on Syria's Afrin, and continues to threaten Manbij
  
• Israel-Iran missile barrages in Syria take a pause on Thursday
  

****
**** Turkey tightens grip on Syria's Afrin, and continues to threaten Manbij
****


Syrian police trainees in Turkey (Anadolu)

Turkey is continuing to tighten its grip on the northern Syria city
Afrin, on Turkey's border, following the successful completion of
Operation Olive Branch.

Turkey's military Operation Olive Branch began on January 20 and took
place over several months, with the objective of regaining control of
Syria's border city of Afrin from the Kurdish People's Protection
Units (YPG). The YPG is linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK),
which is considered by the US and Europe as a terrorist organization,
and has conducted numerous terrorist attacks within Turkey over a
thirty year period.

The operation was executed by Arab militias in the Free Syrian Army
(FSA), backed by Turkish armed forces. Turkey declared the operation
successfully completed on March 18.

Since then, Turkey has been tightening its control on Afrin. On April
10, Turkey announced plans to open a new border crossing from Turkey
to the Syrian city of Afrin with the objective of speeding up delivery
of humanitarian aid to the city. However, at the same time, the
new border crossing gives Turkey complete control over Afrin.

Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia and Iran, is
demanding that Turkey return control of Afrin back to the Syrian
regime. However, Turkey is showing no signs of being willing to do
so.

On Wednesday, Turkey announced that 600 Syrian police, aged 18 to 45,
have received a month's training in Turkey, and are now trained and
ready to be deployed back to Afrin to provide security as local police
officers, "in an effort to return daily life to normal in the recently
liberated city." They received training in intervention in social
incidents, police regulations, general discipline, residential
district, operation education, destroying improvised explosives and
crime scene investigation.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly promised on
numerous occasions that once the operation in Afrin had been
completed, the FSA forces would move east to perform a similar
operation in the city of Manbij, and continue from there to the
Euphrates River and beyond to Iraq.

That was always going to pose big problems, since the YPG in Manbij
and further east were US allies that were the principal fighters that
ejected the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) from
Raqqa and other regions in eastern Syria. Thus, an FSA assault
on the YPG in Manbij risked a military clash with US forces.

U.S. protection of the YPG in Manbij has now been formalized. On
Wednesday, it emerged that U.S. forces had set up a new base in Manbij
three months ago, shortly after Turkey launched its assault on Afrin.
The new base will house both US and French troops, who will have the
responsibility of patrolling the border to prevent clashes between the
Turkish-backed forces and the YPG in Manbij. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Daily Express (London)

Related Articles:

• Turkey to open a new border crossing to Syria's Afrin (12-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Concerns grow of humanitarian disaster in Afrin, Syria, as Turkey's forces enter (16-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Socialists and feminists to act as 'human shields' protecting Kurds from Turkey in Afrin Syria (12-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Turkey begins its air and ground invasion of Syria's Afrin (21-Jan-2018)
  

****
**** Israel-Iran missile barrages in Syria take a pause on Thursday
****


Syrian anti-aircraft missiles in the sky over Damascus on Thursday morning in response to Israeli missile attacks (AP)

The military battle between Iran and Israel that began on Wednesday
evening and continued through the night has taken a pause, with many
signs that the pause will be only temporary.

According to Israel's military, the battle was triggered when Iran's
Quds Force, in Syria near the border with Israel, fired 20 missiles at
Israeli military positions in the Golan Heights border area separating
western Syria from northern Israel.

According to Israel, this was the first ever direct Iranian rocket
attack on its troops.

This triggered the most intensive attack ever on Iranian positions and
assets in Syria. Israel retaliated with what appeared to be
surface-to-surface missiles, and multiple Syrian anti-aircraft
batteries were launched to try to intercept them. Officials said that
the response targeted almost all of Iran's military infrastructure
inside Syria, including dozens of weapons storage sites and
intelligence centers used by elite Iranian forces, as well as Syrian
air defense systems. Israel struck more than 50 Iranian targets, in
its most extensive operation in Syria since 1974.

Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said, "They need to
remember the saying that if it rains on us, it'll storm on them. I
hope we finished this chapter and everyone got the message."

Iran said that it had no desire to escalate the military conflict.
Iran's president Hassan Rouhani said, "Iran has always sought to
reduce tensions in the region, trying to strengthen security and
stability."

Israel informed both Russia and the US of its plans ahead of the
retaliatory strikes. Israeli officials say that Iran still has
long-range capabilities in Syria with which to strike Israel,
suggesting that the battle has not ended. Jerusalem Post and Independent (London) and CNN and Debka (Israel)

Related Articles:

• Israel braces for attack from Iran in retaliation for Sunday's airstrike (12-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Syrian war escalates sharply, after Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia all lose aircraft (11-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Israeli warplanes strike Syrian weapons site, as UN confirms al-Assad's Sarin use (08-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus (28-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan (19-Mar-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Free Syrian Army, FSA,
Operation Olive Branch, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Afrin,
People's Protection Units, YPG, Manbij,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Iran, Israel, Golan Heights, Avigdor Lieberman, Russia

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

Sounds like Rouhani is hanging the IRGC out to dry to the extent he can. I wonder if he'll be able to pull them back to Iran.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-May-18 World View -- Climate change conference collapses as China backs down from emission commitments

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Climate change activists struggle to replace US climate change money
  
• China backs out of its climate change commitments with 'bifurcation'
  

****
**** Climate change activists struggle to replace US climate change money
****


Brown coal open-pit mining Garzweiler in front of a power plant near the city of Grevenbroich in western Germany, on 3-Apr-2014. (AP)

After two weeks, an international climate change conference in Bonn
Germany, attended by delegates of over 200 countries, has ended in
failure, without agreeing on the major issues of finance and
transparency.

Climate change finance has been in trouble from the beginning. The
2015 climate change conference that produced the famous "Paris Climate
Change Accord" dictated that the "rich countries" of the world
would provide $100 billion per year to the "developing countries,"
starting in 2020. Even before the election of Donald Trump, it was
highly unlikely that that requirement would be met.

However, since Trump has pulled the US out of the Paris agreement,
other "rich countries" now have to find a way to fill the gap
that was created.

As I've described many times in the past, the climate change has never
actually accomplished anything -- that is, you have leaders of one
country after another taking a holier-than-thou attitude toward the
United States about the Paris accord, but their carbon emissions go down little
if at all. In the case of Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel has
had the most holier-than-thou attitude of all, carbon emissions
haven't declined for nearly a decade, and have been increasing for the
last three years.

I first wrote about this subject in 2007 in "UN Climate Change conference appears to be ending in farce"
. That conference was held at a Bali Beach Resort where
159 countries sent delegates to sip mai tais on the beach and attend
an occasional meeting. The rich countries would have to contribute
$100 billion to a fund for developing countries. The United Nations
would control this money and administer the fund.

At that time, digging a little deeper, it turned out that Louis
Redshaw, Head of Environment Markets, Barclays Capital, was leading an
effort to issue synthetic securities to trade in carbon credits. It
was predicted that the carbon-trading market would top $1 trillion
within a decade. Readers might recall that 2007 was the year that the
subprime mortgage financial crisis was starting.

In the last 11 years since that conference, nothing has changed.
Climate change has accomplished nothing except as a financial scam.
Climate Change News and Reuters and Washington Post and Heritage

****
**** China backs out of its climate change commitments with 'bifurcation'
****

The climate change conference in Bonn that ended on Thursday
was supposed to resolve many issues, including two major ones:
finance and transparence.

When Trump pulled the US out of the Paris climate accord, there
were international cries that without the leadership of the United
States, other countries must assume leadership. The European
Union took on the role of becoming the leader of the "rich" or
developed countries, while China would be the leader of
the developing countries.

China has the 2nd largest economy in the world, and Chinese people
brag that centrally-planned economy is stronger than any other
economy in the world. China is implementing its "Belt and Road
Initiative" in countries throughout Asia by lending them money
to build infrastructure and sending Chinese workers to provide
the labor. China is spending its enormous wealth by setting
debt traps in all these countries with huge debts that they won't
be able to repay.

China is also growing into the worst climate change violator
in the world, building a new coal plant every week.

And yet, when it comes to climate change, they climb into their
pathetic loser shells and claim to be a "developing country,"
so they won't have to provide funding under the Paris accord.

So China is failing in climate change finance. What we're
seeing at the climate change conference in Bonn this last
week is that they're also failing in climate change transparency.

China is demanding that it not be held to any climate change standards
whatsoever. In return for all the money they're getting from the rich
countries starting in 2020, the developing countries are supposed to
start reducing emissions in 2020.

The issues are transparency and bookkeeping. Each country is
required to open its accounting books to prove that it's meeting
its emission reduction commitments.

But China is now demanding "bifurcation." This is a technical term
meaning that the transparency and bookkeeping rules apply only to the
rich countries, not to the developing countries.

This means that the "rich" developed countries have to pay all
the money and also meet the transparency and bookkeeping rules to
prove that they're meeting their emission commitments.

But the developing countries just have to sit back and collect money,
and claim that they're reducing emissions without having to provide
any evidence.

China can go on building a new coal power plant every week, and just
claim that it's magic coal that reduces emissions rather than
increasing them.

You know, Dear Reader, this is so completely f--ked up that it's
almost unbelievable. But that's the way the world is today. With
idiots like these running the world, it's no wonder we're headed for a
new World War. BBC and
Climate Change News and Bloomberg and Climate Change News

Related Articles

• UN Climate Change conference appears to be ending in farce (14-Dec-2007)
  
  
• African leaders once again furious that they won't get a climate change bonanza (18-Nov-2017)
  
  
• 175 countries sign farcical climate change agreement (23-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Artificial Intelligence and Climate Change (29-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Horse manure and climate change (23-Sep-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, climate change, Paris accord,
Germany, Angela Merkel, European Union, China,
Bali Beach Resort, Louis Redshaw, Barclays Capital,
bifurcation

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-May-18 World View -- Likely outcome of Trump-Kim North Korea summit: Mutual recriminations and accusations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North Korea schedules dismantling of nuclear test site as TV ceremony
  
• North Korea offers series of theatrical noncommittal gestures
  
• The most likely Kim-Trump meeting outcome: Mutual accusations and recriminations
  

****
**** North Korea schedules dismantling of nuclear test site as TV ceremony
****


Ronald Reagan (L) and Mikhail Gorbachev ® leave 1986 summit meeting after it collapses in mutual recriminations and accusations of bad faith and lying (ADST)

North Korea has announced that its Punggye-ri nuclear test site,
located in Mount Mantap, will be dismantled during the period May
23-25, and that international journalists will be able to cover the
dismantling "on the spot," and transmit their reports from a press
center at the site.

This announcement comes just two days after scientists reported that
an examination of satellite images shows that Mount Mantap itself has
collapsed considerably more than has previously been estimated. Using
these images, scientists found that Mount Mantap moved by around 11.5
feet (3.5 meters) and shrank by 1.6 feet (0.5 m). It can't be
determined from the satellite images whether some tunnels have
collapsed, or whether the entire mountain has collapsed.

Nonetheless, what is apparent from numerous reports starting with
North Korea's last nuclear test, on September 3 of last year, is that
Chinese scientists and geologists are telling North Korea not to use
that test site again, because another test could risk a huge nuclear
disaster that would release huge amounts of radiation and nuclear
debris that would spread over large parts of northeastern China, as
well as North Korea.

When North Korea made the initial dismantling announcement, they said
that international journalists and nuclear experts would be permitted
to watch the dismantling. The latest announcement omits mention of
nuclear experts, and says that even the number of journalists will be
limited, suggesting that there's another layer of North Korean
subterfuge in process.

The bottom line is that the dismantling of the test site on May 23-25
is a completely empty gesture, since the site cannot be used again
anyway. KCNA Watch and BBC and Live Science and Washington Post

Related Articles:

• North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap (27-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Chinese geologists warn of looming nuclear disaster from North Korean tests (01-Nov-2017)
  

****
**** North Korea offers series of theatrical noncommittal gestures
****

Chinese media have been talking about a "dual track" process to
achieve denuclearization. This means that the North Koreans make a
concession and the US makes a concession, and so forth.

China and North Korea are already pressuring the US to ease the strict
sanctions that have been imposed on North Korea, based on the supposed
concessions already made. They are aware that once the sanctions have
been lifted, it will be almost impossible to get international
agreement to re-impose them, even if North Korea reverses any
concessions that it's made. The near impossibility of re-imposing
sanctions has been illustrated in the last week by the international
criticism of the Trump administrations announced re-imposition of
sanctions on Iran.

So the following points are worth noting with regard to the steps that
have already been taken in this "dual track" process to achieve
denuclearization:

• North Korean media has quoted Kim Jong-un as saying that no
  further tests were needed, since testing had already been successfully
  completed.
  
  
• As described, the dismantling of the nuclear test site is
  meaningless, since it couldn't be used again anyway. As I understand
  it, the North could bore tunnels into another mountain, and quickly
  create a new test site.
  
  
• With big fanfare, Kim Jong-un released three American hostages
  this week. They should never have been abducted in the first place,
  and Kim can easily abduct three more Americans if he doesn't get his
  way.
  
  
• Kim has not agreed to release similarly abducted Japanese and
  South Korean hostages and prisoners of war.
  
  
• Kim Jong-un has been conducting a charm offensive since the Seoul
  olympics games began in January, with singing and dancing girls,
  capped off by a magical meeting between Kim and South Korea's
  president Moon Jae-in.
  
  
• The meeting between Kim and Moon produced a "Panmunjom
  Declaration" that promised peace in our time, but provided no
  concessions.
  
  
• The Panmunjom Declaration said “South and North Korea confirmed
  the common goal of realizing, through complete denuclearization, a
  nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.” However, the word "denuclearization"
  has been used for decades by the North Koreans as including the
  withdrawal of American troops from South Korea and the dissolution of
  the United States-South Korea alliance.
  
  
• The Panmunjom Declaration says nothing about ending development of
  ballistic missiles.
  
  
• North Korea promised to stop nuclear weapons and ballistic missile
  tests until the meeting Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, but development
  is believed to have continued without testing.
  
  
• A series of North Korean leaders -- Kim Il-sung (the grandfather),
  Kim Jong-il (the father), and Kim Jong-un (the child) have starved,
  tortured and brutalized the North Korean people for decades, saying
  that it was all worth it because one day North Korea would be nuclear
  power and would be a great nation, a peer to the United States. North
  Korea will never be a great nation under Kim Jong-un, but it's close
  to being a nuclear power, and there's no possibility that they'll simply
  throw away decades of starvation and torture and dismantle their
  nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles without a war. If Kim
  seriously recommended denuclearization, then in my opinion one of his
  own generals would shoot him dead.

Many of these things are being described by the mainstream media as
concessions by the North Koreans, sometimes with the implication that
Donald Trump should make some concessions in return at the meeting
with Kim. However, Kim and the North Koreans have displayed a great
deal of theatric showmanship, but have not made a single actual
concession. Panmunjom Declaration and Japan Forward

****
**** The most likely Kim-Trump meeting outcome: Mutual accusations and recriminations
****

On October 11, 1986, Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev held a summit
meeting in Reykjavik, Iceland. The agenda was mutual reductions in
missile arsenals, and expectations were very high. But then Gorbachev
demanded limitations on Reagan's pet project, the mythical Strategic
Defense Initiative (SDI), which supposedly would use space technology
to provide a "shield" from nuclear attacks. Reagan refused, and the
meeting ended in mutual accusations and recriminations, each accusing
the other of lying and bad faith. Talks did not resume again for more
than a year.

It has been announced that Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un will have a
summit meeting on June 12 in Singapore. Expectations for this meeting
are enormously high. The people of South Korea, particularly, are
praying that this will be end of their long 70-year nightmare that
began with the Korean War, and that they'll be reunited with the
families again.

However, Kim is going to demand that some sanctions be lifted
immediately, and Trump is going to demand substantial, verifiable
steps to dismantle North Korea's nuclear program. And while the main
agenda item is "denuclearization," the two sides have completely
different meanings for that term.

In my opinion, the most likely outcome of the June 12 meeting is a
repeat of the outcome of the Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, in that the
meeting will end (or not be held) amidst a flurry of mutual
accusations and recriminations.

After that, there are many possible scenarios. It's possible that
North Korea will continue nuclear weapons development, with or without
testing, and it's possible that the Trump administration will go back
to continuing military options.

As I've been writing for many months now, there's are hard bottom line
positions on both sides, and they haven't changed. Kim is committed
to producing an arsenal of nuclear tipped ballistic missiles aimed at
the United States, and selling that technology to Iran and other rogue
nations. Trump is committed to preventing that from happening.
History.com and Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training and 38 North

Related Articles:

• China angrily demands that the US retract the new North Korea sanctions (25-Feb-2018)
  
  
• US considers military options as North Korea continues nuclear weapons development during Olympics (21-Feb-2018)
  
  
• What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? (12-Feb-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  
  
• North Korea's Olympics publicity stunt gains widespread media adoration (18-Jan-2018)
  
  
• North Korea reveals major change in strategic direction (05-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Moon Jae-in,
North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Mount Mantap, Punggye-ri nuclear test site,
Panmumjom Declaration, Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il,
Ronald Reagan, Mikhail Gorbachev, Reykjavik Iceland,
Strategic Defense Initiative, SDI

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-May-18 World View -- ISIS linked family of six bombs three churches in Indonesia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS linked family of six bombs three churches in Indonesia
  
• Saturday's Paris knife attacker had links to jihadists in Syria
  
• Growth of Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) in Indonesia
  

****
**** ISIS linked family of six bombs three churches in Indonesia
****


Firefighters try to extinguish a blaze following a blast at the Pentecost Church Central Surabaya in Indonesia on Sunday (Reuters)

Terrorist atrocities took a new turn on Sunday when a family of six,
including a mother, a father, two daughters and two sons, all
performed coordinated simultaneous terror attacks on three churches in
Surabaya, the second-largest city in Indonesia. At least 13 people
were killed, and 40 injured.

The two sons, aged 16 and 18, rode motorcycles into Santa Maria
Catholic Church and detonated the bombs they were carrying.

Five minutes later, the father drove a car containing explosives and
rammed it into the gate and onto the grounds of the Surabaya Centre
Pentecostal Church.

Five minutes after that, the mother and her two daughters, aged 9 and
12, all strapped explosives to their bodies and blew themselves up at
Diponegoro Indonesian Christian Church.

ISIS (Islamic State in Syria) took credit for Sunday's attack.
However, their press releases made no mention that the attackers were
all from the same family, indicating that, as usual, ISIS is taking
credit for a terror attack that it knows nothing about, except that it
was conducted in the ISIS name.

Authorities are certain that the attackers were part of the
Indonesian-based Jemaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) militant group. JAD
pledged allegiance to ISIS in 2015, and then conducted a series of
explosions and shootings in Indonesia's capital city Jakarta, killing
four civilians. It was the first attack in the country to be linked
to ISIS.

The family of six that perpetrated Sunday's attacks had recently
returned from a family trip to Syria. Like hundreds of other
Indonesians, and like tens of thousands of people from over 80
countries around the world, they had gone to Syria to fight the
Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad, who was attacking peaceful
Sunni anti-government protesters by sending missiles into school
dormitories to kill children, or dropping barrel bombs laden with
metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons on civilian
neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill large groups of people.

Sunday's attack is believed to be one that is part of a growing
nightmare scenario, where the tens of thousands of young jihadis who
had gone to Syria to fight al-Assad are now returning home, after ISIS
lost almost all of the territory it formerly controlled in Syria and
Iraq. As thousands of ISIS fighters return to their home countries,
they will conduct terror attacks there in the name of ISIS. Reuters and Long War Journal and Daily Mail (London)

****
**** Saturday's Paris knife attacker had links to jihadists in Syria
****

A variation of the nightmare scenario described above was followed by
Khamzat Azimov, 20. On Saturday evening, Azimov traveled to one of
the most popular areas of Paris, near the celebrated opera house and
theatres, and started attacking passersby with a knife. He shouted
"Allahu Akbar," and killed on passerby and injured four others before
being tasered and then shot dead by police.

Azimov was born in Chechnya, and obtained French nationality in 2010
when his mother was naturalized. Azimov had previously been flagged
as a possible security risk, and had been interviewed by
counter-terrorism police -- not because of his behavior, but because
of his contacts. He was known to have links to young French people
who had traveled to Syria to join ISIS.

So Azimov himself didn't go to Syria and return, as was the case with
the Indonesian family. Instead, he allowed himself to be radicalized
by people who had gone to Syria. Guardian (London)

****
**** Growth of Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) in Indonesia
****

Indonesia has the world's largest Muslim population, about 227 million
Muslims out of a total population of 261 million people. About 10% of
the population are Christian.

Sunday's attack was the worst terror attack since 2002, when al-Qaeda
linked Jemaah Islamiyah killed more than 200 people, mostly tourists,
through a string of bombings at popular nightclubs and hotels on
Indonesia's island of Bali. Since then, Indonesian police have
arrested or killed hundreds of people with links to Jemaah Islamiyah,

By 2014, a new generation of jihadists was coming of age in Indonesia,
but were impatient with the older generation that had perpetrated the
Bali bombing in 2002. When Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS,
declared his caliphate in 2014, many Indonesian jihadists immediately
pledged allegiance to ISIS. There were some two dozen extremist
groups competing to lead the ISIS cause in Indonesia.

Under the leadership of a radical cleric named Oman Rochman, also
known as Aman Abdurrahman, Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) was formed as
an umbrella organization for all these extremist groups.

Aman Abdurrahman, the leader of JAD, has been in jail for the last 12
years, and is currently on trial for inciting followers to commit acts
of terrorism while behind bars at a detention center which has been
described by analysts as a breeding ground for pro-ISIS militants.
BBC and
Al Jazeera and Long War Journal (18-Apr-2017)

Related Articles:

• Third terrorist bomb blast in Indonesia in three years (09-Sep-2004)
  
  
• Threat of Christmas terror attacks in Indonesia (25-Dec-2005)
  
  
• Rise of ISIS spawns new jihadist groups in Indonesia (15-Jul-2014)
  
  
• Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands (21-Oct-2014)
  
  
• China's coast guard warship rams vessel in Indonesian waters (24-Mar-2016)
  
  
• China demands that Indonesia end plans to rename its own territorial waters (10-Sep-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Indonesia, Jakarta, Surabaya,
Pentecost Church Central Surabaya, Santa Maria Catholic Church,
Diponegoro Indonesian Christian Church,
Jemaah Islamiyah, Jemaah Ansharut Daulah, JAD,
Oman Rochman, Aman Abdurrahman,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
France, Paris, Khamzat Azimov

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-May-18 World View -- Gaza violence surges in Palestinian 'Great March for Return' into Israel

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Gaza violence surges in Palestinian 'Great March for Return' into Israel
  
• Opening of US embassy in Jerusalem stirs strong reactions
  

****
**** Gaza violence surges in Palestinian 'Great March for Return' into Israel
****


A child is carried by Palestinians away from the front lines after he was shot. The smoke is created by burning tires that the Palestinians use to hide from the Israel troops (Ma'an News)

Dozens of residents of Gaza were killed, and over 2000 injured, in a
clash with Israeli troops in what Palestinians are calling "The Great
March for Return," resulting in the greatest surge of violence in Gaza
since the 2014 war between Israel and Hamas.

Israel said some 40,000 Palestinians had taken part in "violent riots"
at 13 locations along the Gaza Strip security fence. Monday's march
is the culmination of six weeks of similar marches that began late in
March. The pattern is always the same. Thousands of Gazans march to
the border with Israel, threatening to break through the fence into
Israel. Israel's army tries to stop them, first using tear gas, then
rubber bullets, and eventually using live fire, resulting in
casualties.

Hamas, the government authority of Gaza, has been calling these
demonstrations the "Great March for Return," meaning that it's
accompanied by demands for "Right of Return," the demand that
Palestinians be permitted to return to the land that they lost in the
Arab-Jewish war in 1948. For that reason, the attempt by thousands of
Gazans to breach the fence and cross over into Israel is considered an
existential threat to Israel by the Israelis.

According to reports by both media and Israeli officials, Hamas
directed women and children to sit near the border fence, and then the
men used the women and children as shields while throwing rocks and
Molotov cocktails over the fence at soldiers. I cannot think of any
explanation for this except Palestinian politics -- to incite as many
killings of women and children as possible, in order to international
condemnation of Israel. Times of Israel and Ma'an News (Palestine) and BBC

****
**** Opening of US embassy in Jerusalem stirs strong reactions
****

On Monday, the US embassy in Israel officially moved from Tel Aviv to
Jerusalem. US Ambassador David Friedman and Treasury Secretary Steven
Mnuchin unveiled a plaque officially denoting the building as the US
embassy. The building is already in use as an American
visa-and-passport facility, and the new embassy will occupy a portion
of the building with a small staff. David Friedman will be traveling
back and forth between the new Jerusalem embassy, and his main offices
in Tel Aviv.

So very little of substance occurred on Monday with the move of the US
embassy in Jerusalem. But the reactions to the move indicate that it
has a very high symbolic significance. It was the occasion of
gleeful, euphoric bragging by Israeli officials at the dedication
ceremony, as contrasted to angry, somber, furious expressions by
Palestinian leaders.

While most international comments were restrained, some strongly
condemned Israel for either the embassy move or the Gaza violence or
both.

Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights,
condemned the "shocking killing of dozens, injury of hundreds by
Israeli live fire."

Turkey called the Gaza violence a "vile massacre," and recalled its
ambassadors from both US and Israel. South Africa also recalled its
ambassador to Israel, condemning "the indiscriminate and grave manner
of the latest Israeli attack."

Numerous countries, including France, Germany and Saudi Arabia,
referred to the embassy move to Jerusalem as "dangerous,",
"catastrophic," "irresponsible," and "against international law."

I hear journalists, politicians and analysts say all the time that
"Nobody wants a war." That isn't true. Lots of people want wars. As
I described in an article last year,
the public becomes heavily invested in starting a war, and
extremely euphoric when the war actually begins, as most of the public
are under the delusion that they'll win quickly.

That euphoria lasts until there's a major setback. According to
General Carl von Clausewitz, the effects on the people and the
government "is a sudden collapse of the wildest expectations, and
total destruction of self-confidence. The destruction of these
feelings creates a vacuum, and that vacuum gets filled by a fear that
grows corrosively, leading to total paralysis."

Gaza's population clearly has an overwhelming desire for another war
with Israel. They presumably have been told by Hamas leaders that
this time Hamas will win. I have heard Marwan Bishara, the lead analyst on al-Jazeera,
imply that
Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority are traitors to
Palestinians because they sought peace rather than war with Israel.

The dreams of an easy victory over Israel are completely delusional.
In a generational Crisis era, Israel will never surrender or
compromise. If the war starts going badly for Israel, nuclear
weapons will be used.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war refighting the 1948 war
between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and
the creation of the state of Israel. The war will also pit Sunnis
versus Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other.
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India,
Russia and Iran.

Monday was supposed to be the culmination of the "Great March for
Return" marches. In view of all the violence, it's possible that the
marches will now fizzle out for a while, or it's possible that they'll
escalate into a regional conflict. Times of Israel and Al Jazeera and BBC and
Washington Post

Related Articles:

• Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (01-May-2003)
  
• Gaza Palestinians burn tires to hide protests from Israel's army (07-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Gaza Palestinian 'Land Day' demonstrations lead to violence with Israel's army (01-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Israel announces that it will ban al-Jazeera in Israel (07-Aug-2017)
  
  
• US embassy to Jerusalem will commemorate Israel's founding -- Palestinian 'Naqba Day' (24-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Palestinian reconciliation talks ignore Hamas commitment to destroy Israel (12-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Jerusalem,
Hamas, Great March for Return, David Friedman,
Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein, Marwan Bishara, Steven Mnuchin

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John J. Xenakis
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Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-May-18 World View -- Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province in Afghanistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province in Afghanistan
  
• Afghan officials blame Iran and Pakistan
  
• Afghan government continues to lose control to the Taliban
  

****
**** Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province in Afghanistan
****


Afghan security forces respond to the Taliban attacks on Tuesday (Reuters)

It's just the beginning of the Taliban's Spring Fighting Season, and
Afghanistan government forces have apparently been caught completely
by surprise by an overwhelming Taliban attack on Farah City, the
provincial capital of Farah province. Farah province is in western
Afghanistan, on the border with Iran.

Hundreds of Taliban attackers overran several security checkpoints in
coordinated attacks starting at 2 am on Tuesday. Heavily armed
Taliban fighters, using captured Afghan military HUMVEEs and police
pickup trucks, launched the coordinated assault on Farah City
overnight from multiple directions. Afghan security forces have
responded, but had to be backed up by American and Nato warplanes,
including A-10 Warthogs.

A government official claimed that no government building or
organization had fallen to the Taliban, but residents are claiming
that the city is close to total collapse, and government officials
have a history of reporting fake news in these situations. Videos
released on social media show that a number of security forces
vehicles have been torched, and that the Taliban have entered a
building used by the security forces. The clashes are ongoing.
Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Long War Journal and Business Insider

****
**** Afghan officials blame Iran and Pakistan
****

Afghan officials have long complained that Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), aid the Taliban insurgents in
western Afghanistan in an effort to torpedo construction projects and
undermine stabilization efforts by the US-led coalition in the
region. Unlike in the past, IRGC-affiliated media outlets now openly
express support for the Taliban’s latest territorial gains in western
Afghanistan. Commentary in the IRGC outlets also indicate that Iran’s
support to the Taliban is aimed at expelling U.S. and NATO forces from
Afghanistan, particularly from western Afghan provinces.

Farah is the fourth largest province in Afghanistan, with a population
of 925,000 in 11 districts. According to the US Naval University in
2009, 50 percent of the Farah population is composed of Pashtun
tribes, 45 percent of Tajik and the rest of the population, including
the Diaspora, Hazaras and Baluchs. Middle East Institute and Tasnim News (Iran) (Translation)

****
**** Afghan government continues to lose control to the Taliban
****

Taliban began its Spring Fighting Season in late April, and according
to Afghan officials, the Taliban have carried out over 2,700 attacks
across the country in the first 19 days of the Spring Fighting Season.
In the last week Afghan security forces suffered heavy losses in
clashes against insurgents across the country, so on Sunday the Afghan
interior ministry said that security forces have retreated from some
areas that have high threat levels so as to avoid additional
fatalities.

On the other hand, General Joseph Votel, the commander of U.S. Central
Command, said a few days ago:

<QUOTE>"The message I would send to the Taliban is that they
cannot win militarily. The international coalition, led by the
United States, is focused on providing the military pressure, in
conjunction with social pressure and diplomatic pressure that will
force them to come to the table."<END QUOTE>

This is the latest delusional statement from the US military. It's
certainly true that as an anti-government insurgency they cannot win
militarily, but it's equally true that there is no chance whatsoever
to "force them to come to the table."

I've been saying this repeatedly for many years, and the reasons are
just as true today as ever.

As I've explained many times, Afghanistan's last generational crisis
war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which
mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later
formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras
and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later,
Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young
generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their
parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern
Alliance, and they're looking for revenge.

But you don't have to know anything about generational history
to understand what's going on. You just have to understand
that there was an extremely bloody, violent civil war in 1991-96,
pitting the Pashtuns versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras
and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. And you have to know that
the Taliban are Pashtuns, and that young Pashtuns are looking
for revenge for atrocities committed in the 1990s, and that
Nato troops are completely irrelevant.

So the funny thing is that even if Votel's claim that military force
targeting a group of Taliban leaders could "force them to come to the
table," the children of those Taliban leaders will have none of it.
It's possible that most of the Taliban fighting in Farah province
today were just children in school just a few years ago.

However, as I've written in the past, there's a dynamic going on,
where Votel and the American military makes statements that the public
wants to hear, even though they don't contain a word of truth. Votel
understands that this war cannot be won, but there's a larger purpose.
As war with China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to
keep American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to
maintain several American military bases in Afghanistan, including two
air bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases
will be valuable in any future war with China. Under these
circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether
the Taliban are defeated or not. RFE/RL and Tolo News (Afghanistan) and RFE/RL

Related Articles

• Nine journalists killed by suicide bombers in Kabul Afghanistan (01-May-2018)
  
  
• ISIS-K suicide bomber kills over 50 in Kabul, Afghanistan, registering to vote (23-Apr-2018)
  
  
• New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan (01-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war (03-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban,
Farah City, Farah Province, Spring fighting season,
Iran, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Pashtuns, Taliban, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks,
Nato, Resolute Support, Bagram, Kandahar International Airport

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-May-18 World View -- China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan
  
• Taiwan, in cooperation with the U.S., strengthens defenses against China
  

****
**** China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan
****


Taiwan's frogmen Marines perform close combat drills just a few kilometers from mainland China on the outlying island of Kinmen, Taiwan (AP)

Last week, China conducted an "innovative joint operation" where
Chinese warplanes flew in opposite directions around Taiwan. New
Su-35 fighter jets flew with H-6K strategic bombers south of Taiwan,
and J-11 fights flew with KJ-200 early warning aircraft north of
Taiwan. These operations involved two theatre commands for exercises
that involved early warning systems, detection and assaults.

China's government said Wednesday that the country’s military
exercises around Taiwan are intended as a direct threat to Taiwan,
following any moves toward independence. According to the Chinese
government spokesman:

<QUOTE>"It is a strong warning to Taiwan independence
separatist forces and their activities. It demonstrates our
determination and capabilities to safeguard national sovereignty
and territorial integrity.

[China has the] firm will, full confidence and sufficient
capabilities to block moves toward Taiwan’s formal
independence."<END QUOTE>

China has conducted frequent missions by air force fighters, bombers
and surveillance planes to circle Taiwan. Also, China has repeated
sailed its sole operating aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait.

China is using a "carrot and stick" to deal with Taiwan. The "carrot"
is that China is introducing 31 "preferential policies" for Taiwan, in
the fields of legal rights, education, culture and tourism, with the
objective of charming the Taiwanese people by improving their lives.
China is making it easy for Taiwanese businesses to borrow money and
invest in high-tech enterprises on the mainland. China has provided
internships and jobs for nearly 9,000 Taiwanese youth as of the end of
2017.

Perhaps most important, Taiwanese entrepreneurs and businessmen who
are complaining about low pay and Taiwan are being offered higher
wages and bigger markets on mainland China, resulting in a "brain
drain" in Taiwan.

The "stick" is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Military experts say the
balance of power between Taiwan and mainland China has now shifted
decisively in the mainland's favor, and they would overwhelm Taiwan
unless US forces quickly came to Taiwan's rescue. The United States
is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, but
it is unclear whether the US would take military action to defend
Taiwan, and have an all-out war with China. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and AP and South China Morning Post and Xinhua
and Reuters (21-Apr) and Reuters (24-Apr)

****
**** Taiwan, in cooperation with the U.S., strengthens defenses against China
****

Last week for the first time, the annual Taiwan-U.S. Defense Business
Forum was hosted in Taiwan, in order to "bring together US and Taiwan
companies to discuss granular challenges of bilateral cooperation in
the defense industry supply chain." The objective is to allow
business executives and government officials from both countries to
discuss defense cooperation in the shipbuilding, cybersecurity, and
aerospace industries.

China, as usual, reacted with fury. Zhu Songling, a professor at the
institute of Taiwan studies in Beijing Union University, that the
event was dangerous, and could lead to war:

<QUOTE>"The deepening US defense cooperation with Taiwan is
an act of gross interference in China's domestic affairs. It's a
very serious matter for the Chinese mainland. Further moves that
promote concrete military exchanges will invoke a strong response
from the mainland, even prompt the Chinese mainland to use
non-peaceful means to resolve the Taiwan question."<END QUOTE>

A particular worry for the Taiwanese are China's J-20 stealth fighter
jets. These are not detectable using ordinary radar, and if J-20s
were among the warplanes circling Taiwan last week, Taiwan's military
was not aware of it.

Taiwan is developing, for operational testing this year, and with mass
production and deployment expected by 2020, the P01-180514-pic1BA
mobile passive radar system developed by the island’s Chungshan
Institute of Science and Technology. This system would be able to
detect, track and lock on to targets at long range.

Finally, Taiwan scheduled its own military drills late in April.
These drills simulate repelling an invading force, emergency repairs
of a major airbase and using civilian-operated drones as part of
military exercises. The descriptions of these drills do not mention
China, but instead refer to "offensive forces invading Taiwan."
The Diplomat and Global Times (Beijing, 8-May) and Asia Times

Related Articles:

• Trump administration approves selling submarine technology to Taiwan (08-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Taiwan's president responds to military threats from China (01-Jan-2017)
  
  
• China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China (26-May-2016)
  
  
• Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election (17-Jan-2016)
  
  
• China's 'Anti-secession law' provokes massive Taiwan riots (27-Mar-2005)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, China,
Taiwan-U.S. Defense Business Forum, Zhu Songling

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-May-18 World View -- New Ebola outbreak in major DR Congo city is called potentially 'explosive'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• New Ebola outbreak in major DR Congo city is called potentially 'explosive'
  
• Applying lessons learned, WHO and MSF move quickly to contain Ebola outbreak
  

****
**** New Ebola outbreak in major DR Congo city is called potentially 'explosive'
****


Hospital in Mbandaka, DRC, where Ebola patients will be treated (WHO)

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was only marginally affected by
the massive Ebola epidemic that struck eastern Africa (Sierra Leone,
Liberia and Guinea) in 2014-2016. DRC itself has had its own Ebola
outbreaks 9 times since 1976, but all of them have occurred in rural
villages, where they were easily contained.

What's different now is that a new Ebola outbreak has spread to a
large, densely packed port city, with the possibility of rapid
transmission within the city, as well as transmission along the Congo
River to other countries.

As far as is currently known, the latest outbreak began in a small
inland village called Ikoko Impenge, accessible only by motorbike.
However, the outbreak only became known on May 8, when the DRC
notified the World Health Organization (WHO) that there were two
confirmed cases identified in another inland village, Bikoro. By
Thursday, 23 deaths had occurred from Ebola cases in isolated rural
villages, giving authorities a better chance of ring-fencing the
outbreak before it could spread.

On Thursday, the World Health Organization announced that the Ebola
outbreak had reached a "new phase," as new Ebola cases were identified
in Mbandaka, a large heavily populated urban city of about 1.2 million
people. It's believed that the disease was brought to Mbandaka by two
or three people who had attended the funeral of an Ebola victim in
Bikoro.

The spread of the outbreak to Mbandaka is "explosive," according to
senior WHO official Peter Salama:

<QUOTE>"This is a major development in the outbreak. We have
urban Ebola, which is a very different animal from rural Ebola.
The potential for an explosive increase in cases is now there.

This puts a whole different lens on this outbreak and gives us
increased urgency to move very quickly into Mbandaka to stop this
new first sign of transmission."<END QUOTE>

There are two reasons why the outbreak in Mbandaka could be explosive:

• With a large, densely packed population, it will be easy for
  the virus to spread from person to person through human contact. Once
  infected, a person may not show symptoms for as many as 21 days,
  meaning that an infected person could infect many other people before
  he even knows of his own infection. It's theoretically possible that
  this has already happened, and that there will be many new cases in
  the next 3-4 weeks.
  
  
• Mbandaka is a port city on the Congo River, one of the longest and
  deepest rivers in the world, almost 3,000 miles long. With heavy
  traffic traveling from port to port along the river, the infection
  could spread to DRC's capital city Kinshasa, with a population of 11.6
  million, or it could spread to Brazzaville, population 2 million, the
  capital city of the neighboring country, the Republic of The Congo
  (sometimes called Congo-Brazzaville to distinguish it from DRC).
  Kinshasa and Brazzaville are situated opposite each other on the Congo
  River south of Mbandaka, and once Ebola reaches those two cities, it
  could spread further to other countries, or to other
  continents.

The World Health Organization on Friday is convening an emergency
meeting to “consider the international risks” of the Ebola outbreak,
and to decide whether to officially declare an international
emergency. STAT News and BBC and Al Jazeera and World Health Organization and United Nations

****
**** Applying lessons learned, WHO and MSF move quickly to contain Ebola outbreak
****

The World Health Organization (WHO) was heavily criticized for moving
too slowly to contain the Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone and
Liberia from 2014 to 2016, and so is now moving quickly to try to
contain the new outbreak in DRC.

The Emergency Committee meeting that WHO is convening on Friday will
decide whether to declare a "public health emergency of international
concern," which would mean getting access to more resources. So this
step may be taken even though the outbreak is still confined to DRC.

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF, Doctors Without Borders) has sent
multiple teams to hospitals in Mbandaka and Bikoro. MSF is sending
tons of supplies to Mbandaka, including medical kits; protection and
disinfection kits containing isolation items such as protective
clothing, gloves, and boots; logistical and hygiene kits containing
items such as plastic sheets, chlorine spray kits, and water treatment
kits; and palliative drugs to treat Ebola symptoms, such as strong
painkillers, anti-anxiety drugs, and antibiotics.

A new experimental Ebola vaccine has been developed since the
2014-2016 outbreak, and MSF has 4,000 doses available to use to
control the outbreak in Mbandaka. A vaccine cannot help someone who
is already sick, but it will be used in conjunction with the
methodology of "contact tracing." Once a potential victim is
identified, then contact tracing means that potential contacts ae
located, and their contacts are located, and so forth, and all of
those people could be given the new vaccine.

However, it's not clear that any of these methods will prevent an
explosive spread of Ebola. In 2014, Ebola spread rapidly in Liberia's
capital city Monrovia, particularly in the West Point slum area, with
more than 70 000 people crowded together on a peninsula, with no
running water, sanitation or garbage collection. If there is a
similar slum area in Mbandaka, Kinshasa, or Brazzaville, then the
spread could be equally massive. TRT World and Doctors Without Borders and AP and World Health Organization

Related Articles

• DR Congo boycotts its own international humanitarian conference for DR Congo (14-Apr-2018)
  
  
• DR Congo's Joseph Kabila brings the art of power and corruption to new heights (24-Jul-2017)
  
  
• West Africa at significant economic risk as Ebola panic intensifies (16-Aug-2014)
  
  
• World Health Organization says Ebola outbreak is 'in decline' (30-Oct-2014)
  
  
• Forecasting the Ebola endgame and Global Risk (19-Oct-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, Ebola,
Ikoko Impenge, Bikoro, Mbandaka, Kinshasa,
Republic of The Congo, Brazzaville,
World Health Organization, WHO, Peter Salama,
Médecins Sans Frontières, Doctors Without Borders, MSF,
Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, Monrovia, West Point

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-May-18 World View -- Two protesters killed in southern Iran in latest violent clashes with police

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iranian police clash with marginalized Qashqai tribe in southern Iran
  
• Iranian police kill two as new protests erupt in Iran
  

****
**** Iranian police clash with marginalized Qashqai tribe in southern Iran
****


A picture of Kazerun on Friday shared on social media shows upturned and burnt out cars and wounded activists following violent scenes (NCRI)

The latest in a series of anti-government protests in cities across
Iran resulted in up to give protesters killed, and dozens more injured
or arrested, by Iranian regime security forces in the last two days in
the city of Kazerun (Kazeroon, Kazeroun) in southern Iran.

The population of Kazerun is about 150,000. The people are from the
Qashqai tribe, a minority group of about a million people in Iran that
the government has failed to fully integrate into the mainstream of
Iranian society. Although they are Shia Muslims, they have little use
for organized religion and are not devout followers.

They're a nomadic tribe, traditionally practicing pastoralism with
sheep and goats, using camels as transports. They endure long
seasonal migrations of hundreds of miles between lowland winter and
highland summer pastures.

This lifestyle is relative unique for Iran, and explains why they're
not integrated into mainstream society. Since the 1800s, their
fortunes have gone up and down depending on who was in power in Iran.
During the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution civil war, they fought in
support of the Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini and the revolutionary side
to oust the Shah of Iran.

After the revolution, Khomeini and the ruling regime looked upon the
Qashqai with favor. But because the Qashqai were so different from
the other Persian people, they quickly clashed with the new regime,
which was following a psychopathically harsh version of Sharia law and
imposing it on the entire country. The good feelings ended pretty
quickly in 1980, when Qashqai leaders were arrested, but then escaped
from prison and formed an anti-government insurgency. The regime
captured the escaped Qashqai leaders and executed them.

Nonetheless, the Qashqai had been harshly suppressed under the Shah,
and benefitted greatly from the Khomeini regime in the 1980s. In
particular, the government did not interfere with their pastoral
activities nor their migration routes by which they traveled with
their sheep and goats.

The Qashqai have been increasingly marginalized since the 1980s, and
they now harbor a great deal of anti-government sentiment. That
sentiment spilled out onto the streets in the last few months.

Last year, a government official proposed a plan to split the county
of Kazerun into two, and make other administrative changes. Although
some Qashqai supported the plan, most bitterly opposed it,
particularly the undeveloped and poor districts which viewed the plan
as further discrimination. Radio Farda and JCPA and Cultural Survival and Against The Compass

****
**** Iranian police kill two as new protests erupt in Iran
****


An Iranian Qashqai nomad carries a live goat from his herd

The people of Kazerun have been peacefully protesting for weeks
against the administrative plan to split the county. The government
made some concessions, but apparently their sincerity was in doubt.

On April 20, the protesters occupied the site for the city's Friday
prayers. There were a number of extremely angry chants, including
“Our enemy is right here; liars say it is America,” but there were
other, more shocking slogans too, including “Be afraid when we get
guns” and “We will kill the traitors.”

These chants revived memories of massive protests in cities across the
country starting in late December of last year. At that time, there
were chants like, "Seyed Ali [Khamenei] shame on you let go of our
country," "Death to the Dictator," "Death to Rouhani," "Leave Syria,
think about us," and "Forget about Gaza and Lebanon; I’ll sacrifice my
life for Iran."

Iran is in a generational Awakening era, following the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution civil war. The psychopathic hardliners view any
sort of peaceful protest as a revival of the civil war, and so even
peaceful protests have to be crushed brutally. So the Iranian regime
brutally crushed the protests in January, killing some protesters and
arresting several thousand.

The peaceful Kazerun protests of the last few weeks are being
interpreted the same way, as an existential threat to the Khamenei
regime, and so they have to be crushed brutally as well.

On Thursday, the protesters gathered in the city's main square.
Iranian security forces fired teargas at the protesters, who set the
police station on fire. The security forces responded with live
gunfire, killing as many as five protesters, while dozens more were
injured and arrested.

There's an irony about this situation in that it's occurring at the
same time as Iran's government is criticizing the Israelis for the
deaths of people from Hamas trying to break through the border fence
from Gaza into Israel. Iran's government is criticizing the Israelis,
but ignoring their own actions in Kazerun. The protesters themselves
have noticed this hypocrisy in some of their chants: “The Government
Supports Gazans, But Betrays Kazerun," and “Our Enemy is Here, not in
the US." Iran Wire
and Deutsche Welle and CNN (14-Jan-2018) and JCPA

Related Articles

• Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran (30-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Iran's 'moderate pragmatist' Hashemi Rafsanjani dies at age 82 (09-Jan-2017)
  
  
• As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious (06-Feb-2016)
  
  
• Theological split in Iran widens as opposition protests continue (09-Nov-2009)
  
  
• Tens of thousands protest in Tehran after Rafsanjani says Iran is 'in crisis' (18-Jul-2009)
  
  
• Iranian police swoop down on women with loose headscarves (25-Apr-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Qashqai tribe,
Kazerun, Kazeroon, Kazeroun,
Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei
Generational Dynamics, Iran, Qashqai tribe,
Kazerun, Kazeroon, Kazeroun,
Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

I do not know if it is a good parallel, but the Romanian Revolution that ultimately toppled the Ceausescu dynasty-in-formation began in a repression of an ethnic minority -- the Hungarians -- over some religious protests against the infernal regime. People in distress by then did not care that it was an ethnic minority that was getting the worst first in Timisoara. They quit accepting excuses including demonizing lies about those rising against the dictatorship.

OK, Iran is more repressive, and more armed-to-the-teeth than Ceausescu's Iran.

A general rule is worthy of remembrance: revolutions succeed, whether in Russia in 1917 or the Philippines in 1986 (talk about evil and good) when the army and the police force decide on behalf of the revolutionaries.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-May-18 World View -- China escalates militarization of South China Sea, preparing for war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China escalates militarization of South China Sea, preparing for war
  
• China prepares for war on multiple fronts
  

****
**** China escalates militarization of South China Sea, preparing for war
****


China's H-6K-a bomber is a modernized version of a 60-year-old Soviet design -- is the only mass-produced bomber in the world today (Xinhua)

While 99% of the world was hypnotized by Markle Sparkle, China made a
major escalation in its illegal militarization of the South China Sea,
and said it was preparing for war.

China announced on Friday that it has begun landing bombers on the
artificial islands it created in the South China sea, in preparation
for the Battle of the South China Sea. The announcement appeared on
China's Ministry of Defense web site:

<QUOTE>"A division of the Air Force’s aviation division has
recently organized multi-model multi-bombers such as the -6K to
carry out training on islands and reefs to take off and land in
the southern seas, tempering the ability to “reach all regions,
conduct full-time air strikes, and strike in all directions." ...

The aviation division equipped with the H-6K and other multi-type
bombers, keeping in mind the strategic requirements of
“ideological and political should be strong, have good skills to
fight and must be strong in fighting style”, are fully committed
to advancing training in the new era and are preparing for the
West Pacific and the Battle of the South China Sea."<END QUOTE>

This is another major escalation in China's preparation for war. The
bombers are landing on the artificial islands that China constructed
in violation of international law, as the United Nations Permanent
Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruled that all of China's activities in the South China Sea are illegal.

China has repeatedly lied and hid its true intentions. Originally,
the artificial islands were going to be for tourists and scientists,
which was a lie. Then the military installations would be purely
defensive, which was another lie. And now they're part of a massive
militarization in anticipation, when preparation has been completed,
to launch a full-scale war on America and its allies. Chinese military
facilities in the South China Sea include air bases, radar and
communications systems, naval facilities and defensive weaponry
including landing strips able to accommodate military planes.

This announcement comes just two weeks after China deployed offensive cruise and surface-to-air missiles in South China Sea.

Friday's announcement referred to the artificial island off Woody
Island, in the Paracel Islands. It's believed that this island is a
blueprint for deployments to the Spratly Islands farther south, at its
outposts at Subi, Mischief and Fiery Cross Reefs. In all cases, these
reefs can accommodate bombers, as well as large transport, patrol, and
refueling aircraft. China Daily and China Ministry of Defense (Trans) and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (CSIS/AMTI) and Popular Science

****
**** China prepares for war on multiple fronts
****

On June 16 of last year, China sent troops and construction workers to
begin road construction in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau, with the apparent
intention of annexing the region. At Bhutan's request, India sent in
troops to prevent the annexation. Tensions escalated for weeks, and
then suddenly and unexpectedly on August 28 the crisis ended when
China backed off.

No one seriously believed that China backed off because they had lost
interest. The most likely conclusion was that China was not ready for
a full-scale war with India, and wanted to wait until it WAS ready for
a full-scale war.

In the meantime, satellite images show that China has military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau.
China has positioned thousands of troops, and built two
helicopter platforms, and dozens of houses and stores.

Recently, China's Foreign Ministry reaffirmed its claim that Doklam
belongs to China:

<QUOTE>"Donglong (Doklam) belongs to China because we have
historical conventions. China's activities there (Doklam) are
within our sovereign rights. There is no such thing as changing
status quo."<END QUOTE>

Furthermore, it emerged that Chinese troops have made new roads and
other construction to gain access to another region of Bhutan. So few
people doubt that China has not given up, but is moving forward with a
large military buildup to use for an invasion at a time of its
choosing.

As we reported last week,
China
says that the reason that it's performing aggressive military
exercises around Taiwan is with the intention of threatening Taiwan.
Once again, China is preparing for an invasion of Taiwan at a time of
its choosing. Similar aggressive moves are occurring around Japan's
Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

Writing these articles makes it starkly clear how much utter craziness
there is in the world. Would America be better off if it invaded and
annexed Cuba? Would Britain be better off if it invaded and annexed
Ireland? No one would even consider such insane moves. So then why
on earth does China think it will be better off by invading and
annexing Doklam Plateau? One doesn't have to be a full-fledged
pacifist to see how insane this is, but that's what the Chinese are
doing.

China has repeatedly hidden its intentions, and will continue to do so
until it's prepared to launch its attack. China is following exactly
the same path that the Nazis followed. Xi Jinping's "Socialism with
Chinese Characteristics" is the same as Hitler's National Socialism.
Like the Nazis, the Chinese believe that they're a Master Race that
will conquer the world. They'd have to be crazy to believe that they
could succeed at that, but the Chinese are crazy. And they'll do
exactly what the Nazis did -- bring destruction and catastrophe to
themselves and the entire world. New Delhi TV and The Print (India) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and The Diplomat

Related Articles:

• China deploys cruise and surface-to-air missiles in South China Sea (04-May-2018)
  
  
• China resumes military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau (19-Dec-2017)
  
  
• China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan (17-May-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, H-6K bomber,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Woody Island, Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands,
Bhutan, Doklam Plateau

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

(05-19-2018, 10:04 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Writing these articles makes it starkly clear how much utter craziness
there is in the world. Would America be better off if it invaded and
annexed Cuba?  Would Britain be better off if it invaded and annexed
Ireland?  No one would even consider such insane moves.  So then why
on earth does China think it will be better off by invading and
annexing Doklam Plateau?  One doesn't have to be a full-fledged
pacifist to see how insane this is, but that's what the Chinese are
doing.

China has repeatedly hidden its intentions, and will continue to do so
until it's prepared to launch its attack.  China is following exactly
the same path that the Nazis followed.  Xi Jinping's "Socialism with
Chinese Characteristics" is the same as Hitler's National Socialism.
Like the Nazis, the Chinese believe that they're a Master Race that
will conquer the world.  They'd have to be crazy to believe that they
could succeed at that, but the Chinese are crazy.  And they'll do
exactly what the Nazis did -- bring destruction and catastrophe to
themselves and the entire world.  New Delhi TV and The Print (India) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and The Diplomat

An aggressive country conquering a small island and attacking a border ridge is a far cry from "conquer the world". You consistently refuse to contemplate a war over Taiwan being just that: a war over Taiwan. Nor is your delusional notion that China would never build aircraft carriers has any basis in reality. All public evidence indicates that Taiwan is the fundamental objective of Chinese aggression and all evidence indicates that a Chinese carrier fleet is part of China's long-term plans.

[John J. Xenakis]

(05-20-2018, 01:58 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote:

(05-19-2018, 10:04 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Writing these articles makes it starkly clear how much utter craziness
there is in the world. Would America be better off if it invaded and
annexed Cuba?  Would Britain be better off if it invaded and annexed
Ireland?  No one would even consider such insane moves.  So then why
on earth does China think it will be better off by invading and
annexing Doklam Plateau?  One doesn't have to be a full-fledged
pacifist to see how insane this is, but that's what the Chinese are
doing.

China has repeatedly hidden its intentions, and will continue to do so
until it's prepared to launch its attack.  China is following exactly
the same path that the Nazis followed.  Xi Jinping's "Socialism with
Chinese Characteristics" is the same as Hitler's National Socialism.
Like the Nazis, the Chinese believe that they're a Master Race that
will conquer the world.  They'd have to be crazy to believe that they
could succeed at that, but the Chinese are crazy.  And they'll do
exactly what the Nazis did -- bring destruction and catastrophe to
themselves and the entire world.  New Delhi TV and The Print (India) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and The Diplomat

An aggressive country conquering a small island and attacking a border ridge is a far cry from "conquer the world". You consistently refuse to contemplate a war over Taiwan being just that: a war over Taiwan. Nor is your delusional notion that China would never build aircraft carriers has any basis in reality. All public evidence indicates that Taiwan is the fundamental objective of Chinese aggression and all evidence indicates that a Chinese carrier fleet is part of China's long-term plans.

You seem to be anxious to argue about this article, emitting your
usual nonsense. The Breitbart posting of this article has gotten over
800 comments so far, and some of the arguments seem to be right up
your alley. You ought to take a look. You may find the comments
enjoyable.

http://www.breitbart.com/national-securi...g-for-war/

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-May-18 World View -- Stage is set for a new humanitarian catastrophe in Syria's Idlib province

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Stage is set for a new humanitarian catastrophe in Syria's Idlib province
  
• Turkey warns Syria's Bashar al-Assad not to attack Idlib province
  

****
**** Stage is set for a new humanitarian catastrophe in Syria's Idlib province
****


Two women bid farewell to their deceased families on March 24, before fleeing Ghouta for Idlib province (Syria Deeply)

The army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is in the final weeks of
regaining control of areas around Damascus that it lost to opposition
forces, mainly in the 2013-14 time frame to the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). ISIS was composed mainly of
foreign fighters that had come from over 80 to fight Bashar al-Assad,
and they were opposed not only by the al-Assad regime but also by
local Syrian anti-Assad militias. Among these Syrian anti-Assad
militias are the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). They
also include "Jaysh al-Islam" or "Army of Islam."

Al-Assad has used the same methods to take control of Eastern Aleppo a
year ago, and Eastern Ghouta and Douma in the last few months.
There's massive bombing by Syrian and Russian warplanes of homes,
hospitals, schools and marketing, particularly targeting women and
children. Because many people, especially women and children, hide
out in basements from the bombs, al-Assad drops barrel bombs
containing chlorine. Since chlorine is heavier than air, it drifts
down into the basements and forces the women and children into the
streets, where al-Assad's bombs can kill many of them all at once. In
addition, al-Assad has used Sarin gas for mass slaughter on occasions.

After several months of this bombardment, international pressure has
caused al-Assad to agree to allow the anti-Assad militias to give up
their weapons, and flee the violence along with their families by
traveling to Idlib province in northwestern Syria along the border
with Turkey.

Tens of thousands of refugees from Aleppo and Ghouta have traveled to
Idlib province, and Idlib province is now a smoking cauldron. There
are multiple competing militias all across the province, some of them
moderate, and some al-Qaeda linked. New militias are being formed all
the time, as tensions increase because of overcrowding. Some of the
militias get along with each other, and in other cases they fight and
kill each other.

Now that al-Assad is finishing up in Ghouta, he's beginning to turn
his attention to Idlib province, where he plans to take control in
the same way. But while Aleppo and Ghouta each started with about
300,000-400,000 people, Idlib has 2.5 million people. Furthermore,
while Idlib was the location to which families fled from violence,
there's no place else to go to escape Idlib.

If, as seems likely, al-Assad begins to use missiles, barrel bombs,
chlorine and Sarin gas on women and children in Idlib, there will
humanitarian catastrophe several times worse than we've seen in Ghouta
or Aleppo. Syria Deeply (29-Mar) and Enab Baladi (10-May) and United Nations and
TRT World (Turkey)

****
**** Turkey warns Syria's Bashar al-Assad not to attack Idlib province
****

Turkey is responsible for enforcing a ceasefire in Idlib province,
under the terms of agreements from the "Astana peace process," a
series of meetings that took place in Astana Kazakhstan between
Turkey, Russia and Iran. Those meetings defined four "de-escalation
zones," and the participants are responsible for enforcing a ceasefire
in them.

The whole Astana agreement about de-escalation zones has turned out to
be a big joke. Not only did Russia and Iran not make any attempt to
enforce a ceasefire in the de-escalation zones they were responsible
for, they actually did the opposite. Russia, in particular, was
particularly bloody in its warplane attacks on civilians in
de-escalation zones. Bashar al-Assad has already begun bombing in the
Idlib de-escalation zone. The whole de-escalation zone plan has
proven to be a farce and a lie.

However, Turkey claims it will enforce a ceasefire in Idlib province,
which is the de-escalation zone that it is responsible for. Turkey
has been setting up observation posts within Idlib province, from
which the ceasefire can be monitored. Turkey set up its 12th and
final observation posts on Wednesday of last week.

Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu last week warned the Syrian
government not to attack Idlib province, since any such attack will
lead to a "catastrophe":

<QUOTE>"Currently the most important issue is for the
ceasefire not be violated in Syria. If this is achieved, political
settlement will become closer. There are many fragmented terror
groups. Our intelligence service and the General Staff are dealing
with the matter. We have achieved certain results. If the Syrian
regime launches an attack tomorrow under the pretext of fighting
against terrorists, it will be a catastrophe. This is why we are
monitoring the situation and have established our observation
posts."<END QUOTE>

So, Cavusoglu is saying that a Syrian attack will be a "catastrophe,"
but he doesn't say that anything will be done in response to
such an attack.

In fact, each of these 12 observation posts consists of a few tanks
and a few Turkish soldiers. The sites are typically on the top of a
hill, so that as much countryside as possible can be observed, but
it's clear that Turkish forces can do nothing to stop fighting among
the local militias, or to prevent Syrian or Russian bombing with
Idlib. All they can do is "observe." Anadolu and Middle East Eye and Sputnik (Moscow)

Related Articles

• Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria (20-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Syria demands 'immediately' pullout of Turkey's forces from Idlib province (15-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Terrorist bombings in Damascus, airstrikes in Idlib, break Syria's ceasefire (16-Mar-2017)
  
  
• U.S. preparing for worst-case chemical weapons scenario in Syria (13-Oct-2012)
  
  
• Syria crosses a 'red line' with chemical weapons (20-Mar-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Ghouta, Idlib province Turkey,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, Idlib, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jaysh al-Islam, Army of Islam,
Astana, Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran, Mevlut Cavusoglu

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-May-18 World View -- China will end 'one-child policy' and all limits on births

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China will end 'one-child policy' and all limits on births
  
• China's gender imbalance caused by one-child policy has been disastrous
  

****
**** China will end 'one-child policy' and all limits on births
****


From 2007: Boys! Boys! Boys! Chinese maternity ward: Five boys (white) and three girls (pink) (CNN)

Since the 1979, China has attempted to control the size of its
population by adopting a "one-child policy" which limited the number
of children that a couple could have to just one.

Now the government in Beijing is realizing that this is a demographic
disaster in two ways. First, China's population is aging rapidly, and
pension payments are not keeping up. Second, since parents wanted to
have a son more than a daughter, there's a huge gender imbalance. Out
of China’s population of 1.4 billion, there are nearly 34 million more
males than females

Now China is considering removing all limits to birth. The new rules
will take effect at the end of this year or in 2019. This
announcement has the feeling of a move of desperation. The one-child
policy was reformed in 2013, when China announced that couples where
one parent is an only child would be allowed to have a second child.
When that policy failed miserably, China announced in October 2015
that all couples would be permitted to have two children.

Even that change had almost no effect at all. In Beijing, for
example, just 6.7% of those eligible applied to have a second child.
Couples are complaining that they can barely afford the costs of
raising one child, so they don't want to risk the financial burden of
a second child.

To alleviate the financial burdens, China's State Council proposed
measures ranging from taxation incentives to introducing paternity
leave to boost birth rate, but demographic experts said the cost would
be huge.

China's birth rate has been dipping below the "replacement level,"
necessary to keep the population growing. As things stand, China's
population will peak at about 1.45 billion in 2030. Furthermore, it's
workforce will age to the point where those 45-69 will account for
over 1/3 of the population.

China's president Xi Jinping has promised to build a world-class
military force. His plans face many serious problems, and one of the
most serious is that China's youth in the 2020s will be too busy
producing food and medicines for any aging population. Bloomberg and South China Morning Post (26-Jan-2018) and Bloomberg (26-Jun-2017)

****
**** China's gender imbalance caused by one-child policy has been disastrous
****

There are 114 boys born for every 100 girls in China. In rural China,
the figure is even greater, with 130 boys for every 100 girls. Out of
China’s population of 1.4 billion, there are nearly 34 million more
males than females.

On average in the world, humans give birth to 103 boys for every 100
girls. The number of boys is greater since men are more likely than
women to be killed in war. But 114 to 100 is not expected.

Theoretically, the one-child policy should not affect the gender ratio
at all. If you're going to restrict the number of births, then
theoretically you would restrict the births of boys and girls equally.
But that's not what happened in China. If a woman was to be
restricted to having just one child, then she and her husband often
wanted that child to be a boy, rather than a girl, since a boy would
be able to support his parents as they grew older.

Female infanticide increased when the one-child policy came into
effect, taking advantage of a loophole that if your one child died,
then you were allowed to have another child. Ultrasound tests became
generally available in the 1980s, and although they were banned in
1994, women still were able to find them, and abort a baby if it was a
girl. This created the gender imbalance.

The disastrous consequences of the one-child policy are now being felt
today, as the children who were born in the 1980s-90s are coming of
age. Millions of men are unable to find girlfriends and wives, which
creates not only a loneliness problem, but also a risk to the
stability of society. If there are too few girls, then they're likely
to be tempted into prostitution, or to be abducted and sold for human
trafficking.

China is not alone in this situation. Birth rates have been falling
in countries around the world. In the United States, the fertility
rate has fallen to a historic low. The trend is being driven by a
decline in birthrates for teens and 20-somethings. The birthrate for
women in their 30s and 40s increased — but not enough to make up for
the lower numbers in their younger peers.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing is
the reflection of the baby boom that occurred at the end of World War
II. Women were reluctant to have children during the Great Depression
and WW II, but when the war ended, there was an explosion of births,
giving rise to what demographers call the Baby Boom generation.

Today we're seeing a situation where there's a lot of anxiety about
the future. There's been a financial crisis, there are multiple wars
in progress in the Mideast, and war with North Korea and China is on
the horizon. Many women do not wish to have a baby under these
circumstances, so we're seeing a drop in fertility rate. But after
the next world war ends, then we'll see a new baby boom. Washington Post and Reuters and Time (27-July-2009) and National Geographic (13-Nov-2015) and Washington Post (30-June-2017)

Related Articles:

• China's end of one-child policy doesn't dent Vietnamese wife trade (18-Nov-2013)
  
  
• Chinese peasants use fertility drugs to get around 'one-child' policy (26-May-2007)
  
  
• A generational view of China's growing melamine food disaster (17-Nov-2008)
  
  
• Boys, boys, boys! China is running out of girls. (01-Feb-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, one-child policy, Xi Jinping

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-May-18 World View -- European markets in turmoil over Italy's unbridled spending proposals

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• European markets in turmoil over Italy's unbridled spending proposals
  
• Key proposals from Italy's M5S-League coalition
  

****
**** European markets in turmoil over Italy's unbridled spending proposals
****


Five-Star Movement leader Luigi Di Maio, left, and La Liga leader Matteo Salvini (AFP)

Italy's Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), founded in 1472, is the
world's oldest operating bank. It may also be the world's worst
managed bank, since by 2016 it had $55.2 billion in bad loans on its
books. Even worse, salesmen working for the bank sold people
high-risk high-yield bonds in place of ordinary savings accounts, so a
collapse of the bank would mean hundreds of thousands of people,
including many pensioners, would have their life savings wiped out.

In fact, Italy's entire banking system was close to collapse. There
were &euro;350 billion in bad loans on the books of Italy's banks, a
third of the eurozone's total bad debt.

It's a violation of European Central Bank (ECB) rules for a member
country to bail out its own banks, since that forces the taxpayers to
pay for the mistakes of the bank managers, who should be held to
account for their mistakes. Nonetheless, an MBS collapse would have
been so disastrous for Italy's economy, that the EU was forced to
agree to allow a bailout in July of last year, adding to Italy's
already huge debt.

Today, Italian debt stands at around &euro;2.17 trillion, or 133% of
gross domestic product (GDP). That's worse than Greece's situation
when it was being bailed out in 2010. At that time, Greece's debt as
"only" 127% of GDP.

Furthermore, Italy has been struggling with years of crisis. The
youth unemployment rate has remained stubbornly well above 30%, and
Italy has felt abandoned by the EU as it had to deal with hundreds of
thousands of migrants arriving on it shores across the Mediterranean
Sea from Libya.

As I've been writing for years, most nations of the world have entered
a generational Crisis era, and in a generational Crisis era,
nationalistic and xenophobic behaviors of the population increase.
This is happening in countries around the world. You can argue
whether this is good or bad, but it's like arguing whether a cyclone
is good or bad. It doesn't matter whether you think it's good or bad,
since it's going to happen anyway.

In Italy, these nationalistic and xenophobic behaviors are converging
into a potential major crisis, as it now appears that Italy is about
to form a government which is anti-euro, anti-EU, anti-immigrant, and
with no fiscal discipline whatsoever.

Italy's March elections failed to produce a governing coalition, and
so Italy hasn't had a government since then. The political fighting
has been raucous and bitter, and two parties that were particularly
bitter rivals were the left-wing Five Star Movement (M5S) that got 32%
of the vote, and the right-wing La Liga (The League) that got 17% of
the vote.

These two parties are far apart on many issues, but they do share a
nationalistic anti-euro attitude, a xenophobic anti-immigrant
attitude, and a complete lack of fiscal discipline, and so much to the
shock and surprise of many EU politicians, they are forming a
governing coalition, based on those principles.

Luigi Di Maio is the leader of M5S, and Matteo Salvini is the leader
of The League. However, neither of them will be prime minister.

Reports indicate that they have jointly agreed that Giuseppe Conte, an
obscure law professor, should be chosen as prime minister. Conte is a
professor of public administration law at the University of Florence
and is a political novice, so the obvious intent is that he would be a
figurehead and Di Maio and Salvini would control him. BBC (25-June-2017) and
Deutsche Welle and International Banker(6-Oct-2017)

Related Articles

• Bank run worsens Italy's banking crisis (28-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Italy announces bank bailout that will 'bail in' ordinary depositors (22-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Italy bank crisis more dangerous to EU than Brexit (05-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** Key proposals from Italy's M5S-League coalition
****

Matteo Salvini is a 45 year old member of Generation-X, a generation
known for its destructiveness and self-destructiveness. Luigi Di Maio
is a 31 year old member of the Millennial generation, a generation
known for its lack of knowledge about almost anything, and a belief
that everything should be free.

Those generational descriptions are, of course, stereotypes, and apply
only to a minority of each generation. However, the policies proposed
by Salvini and Di Maio suggest that the stereotypes apply fully to
them.

Here are some of the proposals in their policy document:

• Debt: To tackle Italy's crushing public debt, the new
  government will remove the debt by cutting taxes and spending more
  money. (I wish I could tell you that this is a joke, but it isn't.)
  According to the policy document:
  
  <QUOTE>"The government's actions will target a program of
  public debt reduction not through revenue based on taxes and
  austerity, policies that have not achieved their goal, but rather
  through increased GDP by the revival of internal
  demand."<END QUOTE>
  
  Here you see how the two sides are supporting each other. The
  left-wing M5S will spend more money, and the right-wing League will
  reduce taxes.
  
  
• Basic income: Five-Star's flagship basic income plan will
  be implemented, guaranteeing a minimum income &euro;780 per month to
  each person.
  
  
• Minimum wage and economy: There will be a minimum wage, but
  the amount was unspecified. The development of the "green-economy"
  and use of electric cars is also a priority.
  
  
• Immigration: They'll crack down on smuggling networks, and
  speed up expulsions of illegal immigrants. They also want the rest of
  the EU to share in the responsibility for the immigrants, but the EU
  has abandoned Italy on this issue for years, and that's not likely to
  change.
  
  
• Muslim integration: Unauthorized mosques will be closed
  down, and a new law on the inclusion of "community involvement" in the
  building of mosques will be reversed.
  
  
• Pensions: The retirement age will be reduced from 67 to
  enable retirement when the sum of a person's age and years of social
  security contributions reach 100. So someone who works continually
  starting at age 18 would retire at age 59.
  
  
• Security: In the name of self-defense individuals would be
  allowed to shoot anyone who enters their home, even in the absence of
  a clear physical threat.
  
  
• Russia: Sanctions against Russia should be removed.
  
  
• Education: Free nursery schooling for children of "Italian
  families." All illegal Roma camps to be closed and Roma children who
  don't attend school removed from their families.
  
  
• Leaving the eurozone: This is supported by both parties,
  but it's been removed from the policy proposal, apparently to avoid
  scaring people.

The nightmare scenario is an Italy fiscal crisis similar to the Greece
fiscal crisis. Italy's economy is ten times as big as Greece's, so an
Italy fiscal crisis would be a catastrophe. AFP and Pound Sterling Live and Bloomberg and AFP

Related Articles

• France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses (16-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Italy begs for help after 12,000 migrants arrive in four days (30-Jun-2017)
  
  
• After Brexit and Trump, Italy's Five-Star-Movement may be the next surprise (18-Nov-2016)
  
  
• German official says that 'two clowns have won' in Italy (01-Mar-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena, MPS,
Five-Star Movement, M5S, Luigi Di Maio,
La Liga, The League, Matteo Salvini, Giuseppe Conte,
Libya, Mediterranean Sea, Russia

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[Warren Dew]

(05-22-2018, 10:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

• Leaving the eurozone: This is supported by both parties,
  but it's been removed from the policy proposal, apparently to avoid
  scaring people.
  

How else are they going to fund their proposals than with an EU bailout?

[John J. Xenakis]

(05-22-2018, 10:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

• Leaving the eurozone: This is supported by both parties,
  but it's been removed from the policy proposal, apparently to avoid
  scaring people.
  

(05-23-2018, 09:13 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > How else are they going to fund their proposals than with an EU
> bailout?

Well, since leaving the eurozone didn't make it into the policy
document, we don't know the answer. However there was some talk about
repudiating their debts -- simply not paying them.

[Cynic Hero '86]

LOL a selfish boomer is angry that Italians are not willingly subjecting themselves to genocide in the name of "good intentions". Italians are implementing their fundamental right; that Italy remains Italian. Westerners are not going to be receptacles of human rights doctrine simply so that boomers could feel "spiritually cleansed".