Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 26-Jul-18 World View -- North Korea appears to dismantle its Sohae satellite launch site

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North Korea appears to dismantle its Sohae satellite launch site
  
• North Korea's denuclearization timeline seems to be extending out indefinitely
  

****
**** North Korea appears to dismantle its Sohae satellite launch site
****


Secretary of State Mike Pompeo testifying to Senate on Wednesday (AP)

Analysis of commercial satellite pictures by the 38 North website
shows that North Korea has apparently taken a first step in
dismantling facilities at its Sohae satellite launch site.

This site has been used in the past to conduct multiple rocket engine
tests, including at least two tests of the engines that ended up
powering the first stage of its two flight-tested
intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

According to 38 North analyst Joseph Bermudez:

<QUOTE>"Since these facilities are believed to have played an
important role in the development of technologies for the North's
intercontinental ballistic missile program, these efforts
represent a significant confidence building measure on the part of
North Korea."<END QUOTE>

The action is being described as a "confidence building measure,"
following the June 12 summit meeting between Donald Trump and Kim
Jong-un in Singapore. It's also being described as a step in
fulfilling the promises made by Kim Jong-un to Donald Trump during
that summit.

Adam Mount, a defense analyst at the Federation of American
Scientists, said that North Korea is giving up little in
its actions.

Mount was particularly concerned that North Korea did not even invite
foreign journalists to watch the dismantling, to verify that it had
actually occurred. Instead, the North did whatever it did in broad
daylight knowing that it would be detected and reported by analysts
like those at 38 North from commercial satellite pictures that show
actions on the ground that might be purposely deceptive.

A South Korean official expressed puzzlement for the same reason: "We
need further analysis to figure out why the North didn't turn the
dismantlement activities into an event and whether the country is
trying to control the speed of the process to maintain a pace it
wants."

Furthermore, it's not clear that anything significant was accomplished
at all, according to Mount:

<QUOTE>"The actions at Sohae are a helpful signal that
Pyongyang wants to continue negotiations, but do not in themselves
advance nuclear disarmament. North Korea still has not disclosed
or offered to dismantle facilities that produce or store nuclear
or missile systems, or the means to transport the missiles. So
far, the facilities dismantled have been peripheral to these core
functions."<END QUOTE>

Furthermore, according to unnamed US government official referencing
assessments by US intelligence agencies, the site "can be
reconstituted within months."

U.S. military intelligence has similarly concluded in May that North
Korea’s dismantlement of the tunnel network at the Punggye-ri nuclear
test site with explosives was also reversible in a matter of "weeks to
months." In that case, North Korea invited journalists to watch the
dismantlement, but refused to invite experts who could verify what had
happened. There was the possibility that the explosions that occurred
at the entrance to the tunnels did not damage the insides of the
tunnels. 38 North and AP and The Diplomat

****
**** North Korea's denuclearization timeline seems to be extending out indefinitely
****

As I've been writing for many months, there is no chance whatsoever
that North Korea will give up its nuclear development program now or
in the future, after having tortured, starved and brutalized their own
population for three decades, under the promise that one day North
Korea would be a nuclear power on a peer with the United States.

North Korea has had only one objective in the charm offensive since
the beginning of the year and in Kim's summit meetings with Trump and
South Korean leaders: To get the US-led sanctions lifted without
having to give up its development of nuclear missiles targeting the
United States.

All of the events since the June 12 summit meeting have been in
pursuit of that one objective. Other than two reversible actions,
nothing has been done to denuclearize or to end ballistic missile
development.

Furthermore, gasoline prices being charged in North Korea have been
cut in half since March, suggesting that either China or Russia is
supplying petroleum products to North Korea that are in violation of
sanctions imposed the U.N. Security Council in December. US officials
believe that these and other "maximum pressure" sanctions have forced
North Korea to come to the negotiating table. However, a sharp drop
in prices could indicate either that the sanctions are not being
properly implemented, or that North Korea has found ways internally to
adapt to them. Either way, they lose their effectiveness.

The US State Dept. on Monday issued a 17-page advisory listing
"deceptive practices" used by the North to bypass the sanctions,
including the sending of slave trade abroad. It lists 42 countries
where North Korean laborers are still being exploited, including
Algeria, Angola, China, Equatorial Guinea and Russia, adding that the
U.S. is monitoring them to see whether they violate UN Security
Council resolutions. Washington has also singled out 239 North Korean
companies involved in illegal trade and warned against doing business
with them.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo testified before the
Senate foreign relations committee. He confirmed that North Korea is
still producing fissile material for nuclear bombs in spite of its
pledge to denuclearize. He declined to respond when asked whether
North Korea was continuing to pursue submarine-launched ballistic
missiles.

The timeline for North Korea's denuclearization has yet to be
specified, but Pompeo said that the US goal was for North Korea’s
complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID) by the end
of Trump’s current term in office, which runs until January 2021,
"more quickly if possible." Pompeo said that no sanctions will be
listed until CVID is completed. Reuters and Chosun (Seoul) and US State Dept. and Guardian (London)

Related Articles:

• North Korea issues vitriolic anti-US rant, collapsing denuclearization talks (08-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Sec of State Pompeo visits North Korea amid reports that sanctions will be softened (06-Jul-2018)
  
  
• After the Kim-Trump summit, US and N. Korea plan denuclearization details (14-Jun-2018)
  
  
• North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit (25-May-2018)
  
  
• North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap (27-Apr-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, 38 North,
Sohae launch site, Joseph Bermudez,
Adam Mount, Federation of American Scientists,
Punggye-ri nuclear test site, China, Russia,
Mike Pompeo

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Jul-18 World View -- ISIS terror attack kills hundreds of Druze in southern Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS terror attack kills hundreds of Druze in southern Syria
  
• History of the Druze religion
  

****
**** ISIS terror attack kills hundreds of Druze in southern Syria
****


Mourners carry a coffin of one of Wednesday's victims (SANA)

A series of gruesome terror attacks on Wednesday by the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in the Druze-majority
province of Sweida in southern Syria has killed at least 250 people.

At least 56 militants carried out the attack. The militants went from
home to home, stabbing civilians, killing families as they slept,
before launching several suicide bombings. ISIS claimed credit for
the attacks on its web site.

The attacks targeted the community of 800,000 Druze in Sweida. The
Druze religion is a splinter variant off of Shia Islam, and the Druze
are considered apostates by extremist jihadists.

The total Druze community in the region consists about one million
living in Syria and Lebanon, 104,000 living in Israel, and 40,000
living in Jordan. They're an important political force in both Israel
and Lebanon. In Syria, they've stayed neutral in the civil war.
They've lived peaceful among the Sunni and Shia Arabs in Syria and
Lebanon for over a millennium.

However, ISIS consists mostly of foreign fighters who came to Syria
from over 80 countries to fight Syria's president Bashar al-Assad,
after al-Assad began committing genocide and ethnic cleansing among
innocent Sunni women and children who opposed him politically. The
foreign fighters in ISIS have no historic relationship with the Druze,
so they were an easy target.

In the early years of Syria's civil war, al-Assad's army provided
protection to the Druze. Some Druze are now accusing al-Assad of
having withdrawn that protection because the neutral Druze refused to
join al-Assad's army.

ISIS has lost a great deal of territory in Syria in the last year.
They were driven out of their Caliphate in Raqqa by the Kurdish YPG,
backed by the United States. And they were driven out of the region
near Damascus by the Syrian army. There are still ISIS pockets in
southern and eastern Syria. Some pundits had declared that ISIS had
been completely defeated, but Wednesday's massive attack shows that's
far from the truth, and additional attacks can be expected. AFP and CNN and Irish Times and Syria Direct and Sana (Damascus)

****
**** History of the Druze religion
****

The Druze came into existence as a secret society, and only announced
itself to the world in the early 1000s (11th century). There was a
brief period of proselytizing that ended in 1050. Since then it has
been impossible to convert to Druze from any other religion. Druze
marry inside their religion, with less than 1% marrying people of
other religions.

Within Israel, Druze are subject to military draft, unlike Israeli
Arabs, who are exempt.

The Druze creed arose from a branch of Shia Islam, but it incorporates
concepts from Christianity and Judaism, as well from Greek philosophy
and Hindu and Buddhist influences.

Like any other society, they have had their generational crisis wars,
during some of which they were victims of genocide, and in others they
were perpetrators of genocide, making them no different from anyone
else. A particularly bloody generational crisis war occurred in 1860
with the Maronite Christians, which is considered a victory by the
Druze, resulting in the deaths of 10,000 Christians. It's only been
in recent years that the two groups have attempted to reconcile.
Pew Research and Jewish Virtual Library

Related Articles

• Jihadist Attack on Druze population could bring Israel into Syria war (14-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Bashar al-Assad declares victory in southern Syria as opponents are bused out (22-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Concerns grow in Israel over Syrian and Russian assaults on Daraa and Quneitra provinces (25-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Investigation reveals depraved new atrocities by Syria's Bashar al-Assad (08-Feb-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Sweida, Druze, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, Maronite Christians

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

The Druze seem to have been pushed around a lot, and easy prey for vicious attacks. Maybe they need a movement parallel to Zionism to assert their identity and achieve some modicum of safety. A Druze state? I'll support that.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 28-Jul-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker
  
• Saudis renew airstrikes on Houthis in Yemen's Hodeidah seaport
  

****
**** Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker
****


File photo of vessels sailing in Bab al-Mandeb Strait

Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, temporarily suspended all
oil shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which controls access
to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal from the Indian Ocean.

The announcement was made after Saudi oil tankers were attacked by
missiles launched by the Houthis in Yemen. It's believed that the
missiles were supplied by Iran. The Iran-backed Shia Houthis, which
represent about 15% of Yemen's population, invaded and took control of
Yemen's capital city Sanaa in late 2014, driving out the
Saudi-supported Sunni government. A war began in March 2015, which
the Saudis claimed they would win quickly. However, the war is still
going on three years later, with no end in sight.

On Wednesday, the Saudi oil company Saudi Aramco issued the following
statement:

<QUOTE>"As confirmed a short while ago by the Saudi Minister
of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, H.E. Khalid Al-Falih,
two Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), each with a two million
barrels capacity, operated by the Saudi National Shipping Company,
Bahri, and transporting Saudi Aramco crude oil were attacked by
terrorist Houthi militia this morning in the Red Sea. One of the
ships sustained minimal damage. No injuries nor oil spill have
been reported.

In the interest of the safety of ships and their crews and to
avoid the risk of oil spill, Saudi Aramco has temporarily halted
all oil shipments through Bab El-Mandeb with immediate effect. The
Company is carefully assessing the situation and will take further
action as prudence demands."<END QUOTE>

Saudi Arabia has been sending 600,000 barrels a day of crude oil from
the Persian Gulf to buyers in Europe and North America.

Saudi Arabia says that the closure is temporary, and there are
currently no plans to permanently close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, but
if it were closed then tankers would have to take a much longer trip
by traveling around the southern tip of Africa. For example, a voyage
from Saudi Arabia to Rotterdam takes about 22 days via the Bab
el-Mandeb and Suez Canal, compared with 39 days around Africa,
According to one analyst, the announcement had already added $1 to the
cost of a barrel of oil on stock markets.

Bab al-Mandeb is a very important shipping lane, and permanent closure
would have much greater consequences than just the price of oil.
Egypt, Europe and the United States would have to intervene, according
to one analyst:

<QUOTE>"They have significant interests in protecting the
freedom of the seas through the passageway. An international
intervention against the Houthis may be just what Saudi Arabia
wants."<END QUOTE>

The Houthis have also claimed that on Thursday they struck Abu Dhabi
international airport in United Arab Emirates (UAE) with a drone.
However, UAE officials deny that such an attack occurred. Saudi Aramco and Bloomberg and Al-Jazeera and Press TV (Iran)

****
**** Saudis renew airstrikes on Houthis in Yemen's Hodeidah seaport
****

The Saudi-led coalition launched heavy air strikes on Houthi targets
in Hodeidah seaport in Yemen on Friday. The Saudis had agreed to stop
the airstrikes on July 1, at the request of the United Nations, to
give the UN envoy an opportunity to negotiate with both sides and
reach a ceasefire.

On June 13, Saudi Arabia and UAE launched a "catastrophic" assault on
Port Hodeidah in Yemen, to regain control of it from the Houthis, who
had captured it in 2015. The Saudis expressed the hope that the
attack on Hodeidah could convince the Houthis to sue for peace in the
proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

However now, six weeks later, the battle for Hodeidah has ground to a
halt. The Houthis had been much better prepared for the battle than
the Saudis had expected. The Houthis had heavily planted landmines,
and positioned snipers everywhere. The Saudis had simply
underestimated the Houthis.

The Houthi missile attack on the Saudi oil tankers has changed the
scope of the war somewhat, since it's now a more international war
than it had been. The Saudi-UAE coalition is using the missile attack
as justification to resume the airstrikes on Hodeidah, and by closing
the Bab al-Mandeb strait, they may hope to receive additional
international support for the war. Al-Jazeera and Reuters and Middle East Eye

Related Articles:

• Saudi coalition claims to have captured airport in Yemen's Hodeidah (20-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen (15-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia sacks its top tier of military commanders as Yemen war drags on (27-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Iranian advisors are 'on the ground' with Houthis in Yemen, supplying weapons and intelligence (06-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Brief generational history of South Yemen (29-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics,
Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthis, Iran, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Hodeidah, Sanaa,
Bab al-Mandeb, Red Sea, Suez Canal, Persian Gulf,
Saudi Aramco

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(07-27-2018, 10:17 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > The Druze seem to have been pushed around a lot, and easy prey for
> vicious attacks. Maybe they need a movement parallel to Zionism to
> assert their identity and achieve some modicum of safety. A Druze
> state? I'll support that.

I laughed when I read this because it's such a preposterous idea.
Imagine this: All the Arabs are super pissed off because Israel has
taken a chunk of what they see is their territory. The Kurds want to
take chunks of Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran to form their own state.
And now the Druze pipe up and say that they want chunks of Syria,
Lebanon, Jordan and Israel for their own state. This would really add
a rollicking new element to the Mideast circus.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 29-Jul-18 World View -- Cambodia's China-backed dictator Hun Sen expected to win fraudulent election on Sunday

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cambodia's China-backed dictator Hun Sen expected to win fraudulent election on Sunday
  
• Brief generational history of Cambodia
  

****
**** Cambodia's China-backed dictator Hun Sen expected to win fraudulent election on Sunday
****


Prime minister Hun Sen signs Paris Peace Accords for Cambodia in 1991; last year he declared the accords to be dead 'ghosts' (AFP)

Cambodia is holding a supposedly democratic election on Sunday, but
there's little doubt which party is going to win: the party is the
Cambodian People's Party (CPP), and its leader is China's man, Hun
Sen.

China has done everything possible to ensure a Hun Sen victory. As
the three-week election campaign began, China announced that it would
provide $259 million in loans to fund an infrastructure project in the
capital city Phnom Penh. China's ambassador Xiong Bo attended a CPP
party rally to support Hun Sen.

China has provided more direct election aid as well. China provided
funding for the election in the form of $20 million for equipment,
including polling booths, laptops and computers. This month,
U.S. security-research firm FireEye said it found evidence of a
Chinese hacking team infiltrating computer systems belonging to
Cambodia’s election commission, opposition leaders and the media.

There used to be an opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue
Party (CNRP). It came close to winning during the last election in
2013. But then in June 2017, in a local election on the outskirts of
Cambodia's Kampong Cham town, it decisively defeated Hun Sen's CPP.
CNRP leader Kem Sokha has been jailed on phony charges of treason.
Hun Sen arranged for the Supreme Court to declare the CNRP to be
illegal. So there's no longer a major opposition party, and party
activists have been forced to flee the country.

In the past year, Hun Sen has also destroyed the free press. Hun Sen
closed 30 radio states, as well as the Cambodia Daily, one of
Cambodia's two independent English-language newspapers. Radio Free
Asia was banned, and of its reporters were jailed. The Phnom Penh
Post, the last remaining independent newspaper, was sold to a
businessman tied to Hun Sen.

Hun Sen has repaid China by making Cambodia an important strategic
ally of China. While Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia and other
countries oppose China's massive illegal annexation and militarization
of the South China Sea, Cambodia strongly supports China, especially
in international forums like ASEAN. China returns the favor by fully
supporting Hun Sen's human rights atrocities -- jailing opposition
politicians, shutting independent newspapers, and so forth. There's
honor among criminals. Reuters and Bloomberg and Asia Times and The Atlantic

****
**** Brief generational history of Cambodia
****

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Hun Sen is following
exactly the same pattern that many other countries have followed after
a tribal or ethnic civil war. After the war ends, the leader of the
country, usually from the winning tribe or ethnic group, refuses to
give up power, and becomes increasingly violent and authoritarian,
using as an excuse that peaceful protests or negative news articles
can turn into a new civil war. This excuse provides justification for
mass slaughter, rape, torture, mass jailings, mutilations, and so
forth. I've described this behavior in Bashar al-Assad in Syria, who
has gone to the extent of using Sarin gas and barrel bombs packed with
explosives and metal and laced with chlorine gas onto civilian
neighborhoods and markets in order to kill as many women and children
as possible. Other leaders that I've described exhibiting this type
of behavior include Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in
Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert
Mugabe in Zimbabwe, and Joseph Kabila in DRC.

Cambodian culture dates back to at least 5000 BC. During the period
500 BC to 500 AD, the Khmer people in Cambodia were strongly
influenced by Indian culture, via India traders, bureaucrats and
priests. When Khmer became a written language in about 300 AD, Indian
characters were adapted for its alphabet. Cambodia adopted some
Indian gods, but not the caste system of Hinduism. In the 1200s,
there was a mass conversion of Cambodians to Theravada Buddhism, a
religion that was also adopted by the neighboring Thais. There were
several centuries of wars between the Khmer and the Thais, until the
French arrived in the 1860s.

Cambodia became a French protectorate in 1863. Cambodia gained
independence from France in 1953, and supported the North Vietnamese
against the South Vietnamese and the Americans in America's Vietnam
war. It's easy to underestimate the horror of what happened next,
since in the vitriolic political atmosphere following the Vietnam war,
leftists like Jane Fonda vocally denied it was even going on, saying
"I will never criticize a Communist government."

And yet, the Buddhist society of the China-backed Khmer Rouge in
Cambodia in 1975-79, led by Pol Pot, perpetrated one of the three or
four top mass genocides of the 20th century, comparable to the huge
genocides of Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin, and Mao Zedong.

The Buddhist Cambodian "Killing Fields" genocide, 1975-79, killed
something like 1.7 to well over 2 million people, out of a population
of 8 million. So around 20% of Cambodia's population were killed,
making it possibly the worst genocide, on a percentage basis, of the
20th century. By contrast, the Nazi Holocaust killed around 5
million, which was less than 3% of Germany's population. Pol Pot was
trying to imitate Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward in China, which was
a genocide that killed millions of people out of some two billion.
Mao Zedong and Pol Pot may be comparable in their genocides. In all
cases, these millions of people were the subject of almost
unimaginable atrocities, including torture and rape.

By January 1979, the Khmer Rouge had so destroyed Cambodia that the
country was too weak to fight off an invasion by Vietnamese forces.
At the time, many Cambodians welcomed the Vietnamese invasion, because
it freed them from the Khmer Rouge. The war between the Vietnamese
and Cambodians was extremely bloody, until the Vietnamese finally
withdrew in 1989.

In 1991, prime minister Hun Sen signed a peace agreement called the
Paris Peace Accords, a document that guaranteed democracy and human
rights in Cambodia. However, like other leaders we've described
following an ethnic or tribal civil war, Hun Sen has become
increasingly authoritative and dictatorial, using as an excuse that
unlimited violence is justified to avoid returning to the violence of
the civil war.

In October of last year, as Hun Sen was brutally cracking down
in preparation for these new elections, he said the following
in a speech:

<QUOTE>"Don’t imagine you can hold a meeting like the Paris
Peace conference again because the Paris Peace agreement is like a
ghost."<END QUOTE>

He told people to stop "dreaming" and harking back to the ideals of
the agreement, because the Khmer Rouge were gone now, and so the
agreement was useless "unless the Khmer Rouge returns." BBC (14-Sep-2014) and
Diplomat (4-Nov-2016) and Phnom Penh Post (12-Dec-2017) and Cambodia Tribunal Monitor

Related Articles

• Cambodia's dictatorial Hun Sen forces sale of independent Phnom Penh Post (08-May-2018)
  
  
• Cambodia's Hun Sen threatens violence at protesters at ASEAN meeting (18-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun Sen can be reelected unopposed (17-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Burma's (Myanmar's) leaders may be inspired by Pol Pot's Cambodian 'Killing Fields' genocide (29-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Cambodia bans all sales of sand to Singapore (20-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Thailand vs Cambodia border clash damages ancient Hindu temple (17-Feb-2011)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Cambodia, Khmer, Hun Sen,
Cambodian People's Party, CPP, Xiong Bo,
Cambodia National Rescue Party, CNRP, Kem Sokha,
Cambodia Daily, Phnom Penh Post, Radio Free Asia,
Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, South China Sea,
India, Hinduism, Thailand, Theravada Buddhism, France,
Killing fields, Khmer Rouge, Paris Peace Accords

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John J. Xenakis
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E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Jul-18 World View -- Operation Gukurahundi genocide becomes major Zimbabwe election issue

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Operation Gukurahundi genocide becomes major Zimbabwe election issue
  
• Robert Mugabe endorses the opposition candidate
  

****
**** Operation Gukurahundi genocide becomes major Zimbabwe election issue
****


Operation Gukurahundi grave from 1984 (bulawayo24.com)

For years, it was forbidden in Zimbabwe to talk about Operation
Gukurahundi genocide of the 1980s, and if you did, then you risked
being arrested, beaten and tortured by the security forces of
president Robert Mugabe, head of the Zanu-PF party, dominated by
Mugabe's tribe, the Shona.

But last year Mugabe was ousted and replaced by Emmerson Dambudzo
Mnangagwa, another Zanu-PF Shona, the man whom Mugabe had fired as
vice-president just weeks early. After becoming the new president,
Mnangagwa said, "The people have spoken. The voice of the people is
the voice of God. Today we are witnessing the beginning of a new and
unfolding democracy."

On Monday there's a new presidential election with 75 year old
Mnangagwa facing, as a principal challenger, Nelson Chamisa, head of
the main opposition party Movement for Democratic Change (MDC),
representing the interests of the Ndebele tribe, historic tribal
enemies of the Shona tribe. Mnangagwa and Zanu-PF are expected to
win, either by popularity or election-rigging, depending on whom you
ask.

If Chamisa does better than expected it may be because Mnangagwa was
a major architect of Operation Gukurahundi, the bloody genocide of
tens of thousands in the Ndebele tribe conducted by the Shona tribe in
the 1980s.

Operation Gukurahundi was mostly based on the historical enmity of two
tribes -- Mugabe's Shona tribe, and his enemies, the Ndebele tribe.
Genocidal warfare occurred between these two tribes in previous
generational crisis wars -- the Mfecane war that climaxed in 1828, the
Matabele Wars that climaxed in 1897, and the Rhodesia civil war,
climaxing in 1979. It was the last war that gave Zimbabwe
independence, making Mugabe the President.

Mnangagwa received military training in China in the early 1960s as a
teenager. As Mugabe's right-hand man, Mnangagwa is widely blamed for
leading the genocide against the Ndebele tribe. "Operation
Gukurahundi" (The rain that washes away the chaff before the spring
rain) was accomplished with the help of the army's 5th Brigade of
3,000 élite Shona troops, which had been trained by North Korea. Tens
of thousands from the Ndebele tribe were tortured and slaughtered,
under orders from Mugabe and Mnangagwa. Some families were pushed
into huts that were set on fire and they either burned to death or
were shot dead when they tried to escape.

That wasn't the end of it. Since the 1980s, Mugabe and Mnangagwa have
systematically won every election by marginalizing, jailing and
torturing opposition politicians, marginalizing the members of the
Ndebele tribe, and rigging elections. This has continued to the
present time, and few opposition politicians believe that it will end
now.

Mnangagwa has refused to apologize for his part in Operation
Gukurahundi. According to one opposition politician, "What we need
from Mnangagwa is an admission of what happened, an apology and
communal reparations for the victims of that time."

Both Mugabe and Mnangagwa for decades worked together on Mugabe's
"indigenization" program, which threw out farm and business owners who
knew how to run a farm or a business, and replaced them with thugs and
cronies from Mugabe's and Mnangagwa's Shona tribe who didn't know how
to run a farm or business. Over three decades, Mugabe and Mnangagwa
turned Rhodesia, which was a wealthy country and the breadbasket of
southern Africa, into today's Zimbabwe, which is an economic basket
case. They turned Zimbabwe's stable currency into a worthless
hyperinflated currency, with an inflation rate reaching over 231
million percent, so that the only trustworthy currency in Zimbabwe
today in the American dollar.

Because of the economic self-destruction, investors have abandoned
Zimbabwe. With all of his talk of a "new Zimbabwe," Mnangagwa's
principal objective to get international money to flow into Zimbabwe
for him to spend. Guardian (London) and Newsday (Zimbabwe) and AP and Reuters and Bulawayo News (Zimbabwe)


****
**** Robert Mugabe endorses the opposition candidate
****

In a bizarre twist on Sunday, ousted president Robert Mugabe
unexpectedly gave a speech saying that he could not support the man
who had ousted him, Emmerson Mnangagwa. He did not say whom he would
vote for, but expressed some support for the main opposition leader,
Nelson Chamisa, the leader of Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

"I cannot vote for those who tormented me," said Mugabe.

It's hard to believe the enormous irony of that statement. Mugabe is
a war criminal, and has tormented, tortured, jailed and slaughtered
his tribal and political opponents for decades, and now he's whining
because he no longer has sufficiently palatial living quarters.
However, this is the kind of self-serving attitude we expect of all
politicians at all times in all countries.

Mnangagwa responded with an equally self-serving statement, implying
that a vote for the opposition would indicate evil intentions: "It is
clear to all that Chamisa has forged a deal with Mugabe, we can no
longer believe that his intentions are to transform Zimbabwe and
rebuild our nation." BBC and Reuters and The Citizen (South Africa)

Related Articles

• Zimbabwe president Mnangagwa blames Grace Mugabe for bomb blast at rally (28-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Thanksgiving euphoria in Zimbabwe as Emmerson Mnangagwa replaces Robert Mugabe (23-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe sacks the VP so that his wife can succeed him (07-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Zimbabwe bans food imports as new 'bond note' currency crashes (21-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Puerto Rico - three amigos in Marxist economic destruction (01-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Zimbabwe's President Mugabe says 'go to hell' to EU (02-Aug-2010)
  
  
• 'Liberation Hero' Robert Mugabe now destroys Zimbabwe with cholera (08-Dec-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Zimbabwe, Zanu-pf,
Robert Mugabe, Grace Ntombizodwa Mugabe, Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa,
Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, Nelson Chamisa,
Rhodesia, Shona, Ndebele, Operation Gukurahundi,
North Korea, 5th Brigade

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 31-Jul-18 World View -- Attacks on Saudi tankers expose twin Iran military threats to international oil shipments

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Attacks on Saudi tankers expose twin Iran military threats to international oil shipments
  
• US considers military options for Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb
  

****
**** Attacks on Saudi tankers expose twin Iran military threats to international oil shipments
****


Map of Mideast, highlighting Yemen's Hodeidah seaport, and shipping choke points Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait

The US military is looking at options to keep two vital waterways,
the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb strait, open to
commercial shipping.

The increased concern comes about after Saudi Arabia suspended its oil shipments
through the Bab
al-Mandeb strait, after a Saudi oil tanker was struck by a missile
launched by the Iran-backed Shia Houthis in Yemen.

The missile's warhead only partially detonated, causing a 2-3 meter
hole in the hull, but if it had penetrated deeper and reached the 2
million barrels of oil in ship’s hold, it would have caused a massive
environmental disaster.

Saudi Arabia immediate suspended all oil shipments through the Bab
al-Mandeb strait. To date, no other exporters have followed suit. A
full blockage of the strait would halt shipment to Europe and the
United States of about 4.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and
refined petroleum products, or result in substantial shipping delays
as vessels are rerouted around the southern tip of Africa. The Bab
al-Mandeb Strait controls access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal
from the Indian Ocean.

Few people doubt that the missiles were provided to the Houthis by
Iran. However, Debka is going further and reporting that the attack
was orchestrated by a disguised Iranian vessel, the Saviz, a
weapons-carrying spy ship, which had been under surveillance by
Western naval sources for some time, as it was in a holding pattern in
the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Debka's reports are written from Israel's
point of view, based on military and intelligence sources that provide
valuable insights. However, as usual, I have to warn readers that
they definitely do sometimes get some things wrong.

The Houthi attack is related to the Saudi-led offensive on the Port of
Hodeidah, which is used by NGOs as the major port for humanitarian
supplies for the Yemen population, and is also used by the Houthis for
the importation of weapons. The purpose of the offensive is to
recaptured the port from the Houthis. The offensive began on June 12,
but has been going badly, and has made little progress, except to
deepen the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, which is considered the
world's worst.

The Houthis have targeted Saudi tankers in at least two other attacks
this year. According to a Saudi energy consultant, the Saudi
announcement about suspending oil shipments was done for security
reason, but also has a political dimension, to gain international
cooperation in the offensive on Hodeidah:

<QUOTE>"Rather than allowing these hostile maneuvers to go
unnoticed in the eyes of the world, the Saudi (energy) minister
has placed Iran’s subversions of the whole global economy under
the spotlight for everyone to see. The capture of the port of
Hodeidah will go a long way towards putting an end to these
disruptions."<END QUOTE>

Saudi Arabia transports crude oil from its fields in the east, through
the Strait of Hormuz, then through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, through
the Red Sea and the Suez Canal to Europe and North America. The
Saudis have other choices for delivering oil. One possibility is to
use the Petroline, and east-west pipeline that can transport crude
from fields in the east to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing both
of the narrow straits. It could also charter non-Saudi ships to carry
the oil through Bab al-Mandeb, which it already with Asian customers
using different routes. Reuters and Debka and CNBC


****
**** US considers military options for Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb
****

Tensions between the US and Iran have been increasing since the Trump
administration pulled out of the nuclear deal in May. Since then,
Iran's rial currency has been plunging to record lows, in anticipation
of the imposition of new US sanctions on August 7. Some of those
sanctions may limit Iran's ability to sell its oil, and this has led
to tit-for-tat threats between the Trump administration and Iranian
officials, including a threat by Iran to take military action to shut
down the Strait of Hormuz.

It's now clear that Iran is not just threatening the Strait of
Hormuz, but is also threatened Bab al-Mandeb.

There have reports over the weekend that the US military was
considering what options can be used to keep both Hormuz and
Bab al-Mandeb open to commercial traffic, particularly oil
tankers.

For example, military studies suggest that an obstruction of Hormuz,
by mines, small submarines, “swarming” attacks by boats, and
land-based missiles, would be defeated within a few weeks at most by
US and allied naval forces. It would also be a casus belli for
the US to make a much wider-ranging strike against Iranian military
and other targets.

US military officials emphasize that if any military action is taken,
it would be carried out by other countries, including Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and not by
US forces. The National (UAE) and CNN and Haaretz and National Interest (28-Jun)

Related Articles:

• Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker (28-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen (15-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Iranian advisors are 'on the ground' with Houthis in Yemen, supplying weapons and intelligence (06-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran (30-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Brief generational history of South Yemen (29-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthis, Iran, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Hodeidah, Sanaa,
Bab al-Mandeb, Red Sea, Suez Canal, Persian Gulf,
Strait of Hormuz, Petroline

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-Aug-18 World View -- Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets
  
• The Grand Bazaar and the prospects for regime change
  

****
**** Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets
****


The Grand Bazaar in Tehran, Iran (OrigIran)

Massive demonstrations that began in December 2017 have been
continuing intermittently in cities across Iran since then.
On Tuesday, the protests spread to the history central city
of Isfahan.

The protests a month ago
were
triggered by the collapse in the value of Iran's currency, the rial.
At the end of 2017, the exchange rate was 42,000 rials to the US
dollar. A month ago, the exchange rate had fallen to 90,000 rials to
the dollars. One of the chants that protesters used in last months
demonstrations was "We don't want the dollar at 100,000 rials!"

Well, on July 29 the exchange rate crossed the 100,000 milestone, and
by Monday, the exchange rate was 110,000 rials to the dollar. The
rate has been since May, when the Trump administration withdrew from
the nuclear deal, and announced that US sanctions would be imposed on
August 7.

The plunge in the value of the rial means that goods imported into
Iran from other countries now cost two times or even three times as
much as they used to.

As Americans, we're so used to being blamed for everything in the
world, it's startling that the protesters are not blaming America
for this increase in prices. Instead, their blaming their own
government.

Protesters blame the government for wasting the tens of billions
of dollars that Iran received when sanctions were lifted after
the nuclear deal was signed in 2015. From the point of view
of protesters, that money simply vanished into thin air, and they
blame that on the Iranian government, not the Americans. The
protesters blame Iran's massive corruption, especially among
the clergy, and the money that's being spent on foreign wars
in Syria and Lebanon.

Marchers on Tuesday were seen in video clips chanting "Leave Syria and
think about us," and "No to Gaza, No to Lebanon — I give my life to
Iran." The latter refers to billions of dollars being given to
Hezbollah in Lebanon, and to Hamas in Gaza.

Other slogans were much more personal: "Death to the dictator,"
referring to the Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei. VOA and AP and Arab News


****
**** The Grand Bazaar and the prospects for regime change
****

The frequency of protests in Iran since the beginning of the
year has raised hopes in the West that regime change was close
at hand.

Earlier this month, there were protests for a very different reason --
water shortages and pollution, and lack of water management. A vast
agricultural area in Khuzestan province in southwestern Iran lacks
irrigation water. This is a region that was devastated by the
Iran/Iraq war in the 1980s, and has a largely Arab population, which
suffers official discrimination, as opposed to the majority Persian
population. About 40% of Iran has been suffering from a serious
drought since last year.

There is a great desire in the West for something called "regime
change" in Iran, although it's rarely specified what that means. It
could mean that the Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, gets replaced, but
his replacement may be worse. In terms of violent repression,
Khamenei actually isn't very different from the Shah of Iran (Mohammad
Reza Shah Pahlavi) who was deposed by the 1979 revolution.

As we described last month in "Brief generational history of Iran's protests,"

Tehran's Grand Bazaar has played a pivotal role in protests and
regime changes in the past.

Tehran's Grand Bazaar is one of the oldest shopping malls in the
world, with origins that go back as far as 1660 BC. It occupies over
8 square miles, and has hundreds of shops. So when there's a
widespread protest and strike supported by the shop owners, and
suddenly all the shops are closed, it is a significant event.

The Tobacco Revolt of 1890-92 was led by tobacco merchants in the
Grand Bazaar, but quickly spread to other merchants. The revolt
fizzled because of violence from the Shah. But in 1905, there were
new protests, led this time by the sugar merchants in the Grand
Bazaar. These protests led to a generational crisis civil war, the
Constitutional Revolution, which was a major "regime change" for Iran
in that the Shah was then bound by laws defined in the new
constitution.

The White Revolution protests in 1962 were begun by a different set of
élites -- the clergy, led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. This
was too soon after the Constitutional Revolution to spread widely,
and it fizzled quickly.

However, it led to the Great Islamic Revolution in 1979. Once again,
the merchants in the Grand Bazaar were among the leaders that brought
about a major regime change -- overthrowing the Shah and replacing him
with Khomeini.

So now there are new protests by the merchants in the Grand Bazaar,
thanks to the plunge in the value of the rial, something that
affects them directly. Does that mean that regime change is
at hand?

No, it doesn't. If there's some kind of widespread revolt, it
will almost certainly fizzle, like the Tobacco Revolt and the
White Revolution protests.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there is a different
kind of change at hand, an Awakening era climax similar to the one
that forced president Richard Nixon to step down in America in 1974.
This will be the climax of the political confrontation between the
generations of old geezer survivors of the revolution and the people
in the younger generations growing up after the revolution -- the same
young people who have been protesting in cities across Iran.

Depending on who is in charge after this change, it's possible that
Iran will once again be the ally of the United States, just as it was
prior to 1979. Reuters and Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya and OrigIran and The Conversation (3-Jul)

Related Articles

• Attacks on Saudi tankers expose twin Iran military threats to international oil shipments (31-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Massive Tehran riots strike deep into Iran government's legitimacy (26-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Two protesters killed in southern Iran in latest violent clashes with police (19-May-2018)
  
  
• Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran (30-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Tens of thousands protest in Tehran after Rafsanjani says Iran is 'in crisis' (18-Jul-2009)
  
  
• Iranian police swoop down on women with loose headscarves (25-Apr-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Tehran, Grand Bazaar, Isfahan,
Seyed Ali Khamenei, Ruhollah Khomeini,
Khuzestan, Iran/Iraq war,
Tobacco Revolt, Constitutional Revolution,
White Revolution, Islamic Revolution

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Aug-18 World View -- Report: EU and UK ready to accept 'fudge' to get through Brexit

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Report: EU and UK ready to accept 'fudge' to get through Brexit
  
• Opposition grows to the 'fudge' proposal
  

****
**** Report: EU and UK ready to accept 'fudge' to get through Brexit
****


An anti-Brexit placard at the Ireland - Northern Ireland border crossing in Killeen (AFP)

Brexit has been a pending disaster ever since the referendum passed
on June 23, 2016, and many people in the UK and EU continue to look
for ways to make the disaster as small as possible. So now the news
is full of talk of a "fudge."

As I explained a few weeks ago,

"fudge" is being increasingly used as a stylish, fashionable word for
what used to be called "kicking the can down the road."

So in the last couple of days, there are reports that the EU
negotiators are ready to agree to a "fudge" based on the so-called
"Chequers plan" proposal by UK prime minister Theresa May a month ago.

May was able to twist a lot of arms to get the plan approved by her
Tory cabinet at a meeting at Chequers, the prime minister's country
residence. But the euphoria didn't last long, as two of her ministers
resigned four days later, David Davis, the Brexit secretary, and Boris
Johnson, the foreign minister.

The endless chaos in the UK government caught the attention of the EU
negotiators, as officials in both governments increasingly realize the
following:

• If the UK "crashes out" of the EU through a "no deal" hard
  Brexit, it would be severely negative for both the EU economy and the
  UK economy. Furthermore, it would require a hard border with full
  customs controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
  
  
• There is no credible path for Brexit to be canceled. In
  particular, there is no chance at all of the fantasy "second
  referendum" that some people want.
  
  
• Nobody has proposed a Brexit plan that would be acceptable to both
  the UK and the EU.
  
  
• There's a great deal of opposition from both UK and EU officials
  to the terms of the Chequers Plan. But it's the only plan that even
  has a shot.

It's become increasingly clear among EU officials in Brussels that May
will be unable to navigate an agreement between the "Remainers" and
the "Brexiteers," and there is no majority in Commons for any
proposal. This would mean that the likelihood of a hard "no deal"
Brexit is increasing by the day.

For that reason, EU officials are increasingly willing to "fudge" the
negotiations. The plan for future EU-UK ties will not be a formal
agreement, but will be an aspirational statement to say as little as
possible, to get past the March 29 deadline.

The main condition would be a watertight backstop arrangement to avoid
a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The backstop
would require setting up a customs border in the Irish Sea, which
separates the Irish Isles from the British Isles. Such measures would
in practice keep much of Northern Ireland’s economy under EU legal
control, something that Theresa May has said is intolerable.

One senior EU official said:

<QUOTE>"The political declaration cannot violate our
principles. But with the rest, whatever helps pass a withdrawal
bill is fine. You can talk about many things because the backstop
is the insurance if all these nice perspectives don't work
out."<END QUOTE>

Besides the backstop, the UK will have to pay the "divorce bill,"
estimated to be around 39 billion pounds ($50 billion).

Other things, like the complex trading rules, the "common EU-UK
rulebook," and court jurisdiction would be left as vague as possible,
to be negotiated in the transition period following formal Brexit.

And that's what we used to call "kicking the can down the road."
Evening Standard (UK) and Politics (UK) and FT
and UK Government Brexit White Paper (PDF, 13-July)

****
**** Opposition grows to the 'fudge' proposal
****

Almost as soon as the report emerged that EU officials might accept a
"fudge" of Theresa May's Chequers proposal, opposition grew in both
the UK and the EU.

Foreign minister Boris Johnson, a strong Brexiteer, considered the
Chequers proposal to be the worst of all worlds. In his resignation
letter to Theresa May last month, Johnson wrote the following:

<QUOTE>"The British government has spent decades arguing
against this or that EU directive, on the grounds that it was too
burdensome or ill-thought out. We are now in the ludicrous
position of asserting that we must accept huge amounts of
precisely such EU law, without changing an iota, because it is
essential for our economic health - and when we no longer have any
ability to influence these laws as they are made."<END QUOTE>

Although Johnson is a strong member of the Brexit Leave camp, people
in the Remain camp, who never wanted Brexit in the first place, agree
with Johnson's opinion of the Chequers proposals.

The Remain camp is now calling it the "blind Brexit." According to
Chris Leslie, an MP in the Remain camp:

<QUOTE>"A blind Brexit would take the UK to the same place as
a no-deal Brexit, but without the clarity. The idea that the
fundamental contradictions of the government’s Brexit policy can
be more easily resolved after the UK has left the EU is simply
ludicrous.

A blind Brexit is being talked about because some see it as a
short-term face-saving deal for both the British government and
the European Union, both of which are now terrified that
concluding with a failure to agree a deal will result in a
humiliating no-deal Brexit.

With the EU27 governments and the EU commission wanting to spare
Theresa May’s blushes, there is a risk we end up with a fake deal
to save face."<END QUOTE>

Leslie's statement is that it's ludicrous to think that issues that
can't be resolved before Brexit, will be more easily resolved after
Brexit is true, but he misses the point. The whole point of a "fudge"
is to "kick the can down the road," and if that can keep happening
over and over, then the issues will never be resolved, and will never
have to be resolved.

Readers may recall what happened with Greece's financial crisis. The
EU and Greece would have a major crisis meeting every few months,
usually running all night, and they would announce a "fudge," a way to
postpone the crisis till the next meeting. The problems with Greece's
unsustainable debt were never resolved -- it's still unsustainable.
But they've found a way to kick the can down the road indefinitely.

So that's the idea behind the Brexit fudge. Leslie is right that
there will be no agreement during the transition period, but if the
politicians are clever enough, no agreement will every have to be
reached, and every problem will be postponed. As the Peanuts
character Charlie Brown used to say, no problem is so big that it
can't be run away from.

The Remain camp is now calling itself "The People's Vote" because it's
focused on a second Brexit referendum on leaving the EU. People in
the Leave camp would never agree to that, but as I understand it, even
if everyone did agree, a referendum takes a long time to set up, and
so it's impossible before the March 29 Brexit deadline.

For that reason, the Remain camp is seeking out its own fudge.
They're trying to convince EU leaders, especially from Germany and
France, to agree to a postponement of the March 29 day to give enough
time for a second referendum. Guardian (London) and Daily Mail (London)

Related Articles:

• Ireland hiring 1,000 new customs and veterinary inspectors for hard Brexit (20-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Brexit negotiations in crisis as deadlines approach with no agreements (09-May-2018)
  
  
• Ireland border issue continues to confound Brexit negotiations (17-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Brexit negotiations collapse over Ireland border issue (05-Dec-2017)
  
  
• European anger and British self-delusion follow Brexit plan speech (19-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Brexit, EU, UK,
Theresa May, Chequers, David Davis, Boris Johnson,
Hard Brexit, Blind Brexit, Chris Leslie, People's Vote, fudge

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Aug-18 World View -- DR Congo has new outbreak of Ebola just as the previous outbreak ends

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• DR Congo's last Ebola outbreak officially ended on July 24
  
• DR Congo has new outbreak of Ebola in North Kivu province
  
• Reasons for quick containment of last Ebola outbreak
  

****
**** DR Congo's last Ebola outbreak officially ended on July 24
****


Camps for displaced people, North Kivu province, DR Congo (UN)

As we reported in May,
there was a
potentially explosive outbreak of Ebola in the city of Mbandaka, a
large heavily populated urban city of about 1.2 million people in the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where an outbreak could spread
rapidly. Furthermore, Mbandaka is a port city on the Congo River,
creating the potential of transmission along the Congo River to other
cities and other countries.

On July 24, the World Health Organization (WHO) was proud to announce
that the outbreak had officially ended. The doctors who had been sent
to the region had been extremely vigilant, and had been aggressively
using "contact tracing" to prevent the virus from spreading. When an
Ebola patient is identified, then all that person's contacts and
contacts of contacts are tracked down, and are warned to remain
indoors for an incubation period of 21 days.

A vaccine had been developed, and suspected victims were treated with
the vaccine, to prevent development of the full virus. Teams went to
remote villages to vaccinate some 3300 people likely to have been
exposed to Ebola. However, it's still not known whether the vaccine
actually protected against infection, although it clearly boosted
morale.

On July 24, all known contacts had completed their 21 day isolation
period, and there were no new cases. There had been 53 cases of
Ebola, and 29 deaths.

This was a striking contrast to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa from
2014 to 2016, sickening over 28,000 and killing over 11,310. Guardian (24-Jul) and Science Magazine (18-Jul) and World Health Organization (24-Jul)

****
**** DR Congo has new outbreak of Ebola in North Kivu province
****

The last outbreak of Ebola occurred in the far western region of
Equateur province which is in in far western Democratic Republic of
Congo (DRC).

Now the World Health Organization (WHO) is declaring a new outbreak.
This one is in North Kivu province, in far eastern DRC, 2,500 km
(1,500 miles) from the previous outbreak.

The new outbreak has been spreading rapidly. Already, 20 people have
been killed, including four health workers, and four other people have
tested positive for the virus.

There are three known strains of the Ebola virus -- the Zaire strain,
the Sudan strain, and the Bundibugyo strain. The last outbreak was
the Zaire strain, and the vaccine that had been developed was specific
to that strain. Which of the three strains is in the new outbreak has
not been identified, but the vaccine can be used only with the Zaire
strain.

A more dangerous problem, beyond the possible unavailability of a
vaccine, is that that that North Kivu province is a war zone for a
tribal civil war. Armed groups backed by government forces have been
burning down and pillaging villages, torching houses, shutting down
schools, hospitals and churches, forcefully recruiting young men,
abducting and kidnapping innocent citizens, raping women and girls.
This has already driven hundreds of thousands of refugees from North
Kivu province of DRC into refugee camps in Uganda. ( "13-Feb-18 World View -- Thousands of DR Congo refugees pour into Uganda to escape tribal violence"
)

The WHO has been rapidly transferring its people and assets from
Equateur province, the site of the previous Ebola outbreak, to the
site of current outbreak in North Kivu province. However, it remains
to be seen how effective they'll be in this midst of an extremely
violent tribal war situation. Guardian (London) and Reuters and World Health Organization

Related Articles

• Thousands of DR Congo refugees pour into Uganda to escape tribal violence (13-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Congo's Kabila and Burundi's Nkurunziza use violence and corruption to stay in power (25-Apr-2018)
  
  
• United Nations stunned as peacekeepers are massacred in DR Congo (09-Dec-2017)
  
  
• DR Congo's Joseph Kabila brings the art of power and corruption to new heights (24-Jul-2017)
  

****
**** Reasons for quick containment of last Ebola outbreak
****

The Ebola outbreak that began in May and ended on July 24 was defeated
by the WHO extremely quickly, much more quickly than in the past.
There are several reasons for this:

• Health professions in DRC had dealt with Ebola outbreaks in
  the past, and had plenty of experience dealing with them. By
  contrast, in the West African outbreak from 2014-2016, health
  professionals had no previous experience with Ebola.
  
  
• Although the virus spread to urban Mbandaka, the outbreak was
  mainly concentrated in rural areas in the region. This prevented
  rapid transmission.
  
  
• Medical professionals have developed a number of effective
  strategies for containing Ebola outbreaks. These include educating
  people about washing hands and avoiding personal contact. And
  "contact tracing" is very effective for preventing a sick person from
  infecting other people.
  
  
• Acceptance of the vaccine among the locals in DRC was very high.
  Although it's not known whether the vaccine actually prevented
  infection, it did significantly boost morale.
  
  
• There were vivid recent memories of the 2014 Ebola outbreak. In
  2014, it was a long time before anyone even considered the problem
  serious. That wasn't true in the recent outbreak.

The new outbreak, which takes place in the midst of a tribal civil
war, may not be as easy to contain. And if it is, then the next big
disease outbreak may be from an unknown pathogen that can't be
contained with existing strategies. Vox

Related Articles

• New Ebola outbreak in major DR Congo city is called potentially 'explosive' (18-May-2018)
  
  
• West Africa at significant economic risk as Ebola panic intensifies (16-Aug-2014)
  
  
• World Health Organization says Ebola outbreak is 'in decline' (30-Oct-2014)
  
  
• Forecasting the Ebola endgame and Global Risk (19-Oct-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Ebola, Mbandaka, World Health Organization, WHO,
Equateur province, North Kivu province,
Zaire strain, Sudan strain, Bundibugyo strain

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 4-Aug-18 World View -- South Africa announces plans for unpaid confiscation of white-owned farms

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Zimbabwe's post-election violence raises concerns about economy
  
• South Africa announces plans for unpaid confiscation of white-owned farms
  

****
**** Zimbabwe's post-election violence raises concerns about economy
****


Zimbabwe Black Power Farm. Starting in 2000, Zimbabwe's government confiscated thousands of white-owned farms without compensation, leading to economic disaster. (AFP)

Early Friday morning the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) declared
incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa the winner of Sunday's presidential
election with 50.8% of the vote -- just enough to avoid a run-off
against Chamisa, who received 44.3% of the vote.

Chamisa declared the result fraudulent, and urged his supporters to
hold peaceful protests, avoiding violence. However, a Chamisa press
conference was broken up by government riot police. On Wednesday, the
army opened live fire on protesters in the capital city Harare,
killing six people.

Whether or not the election was fraudulent, these and other acts of
post-election violence by government security and military forces
against protesters are raising concerns in the international
community that Zimbabwe is not a stable country, and that therefore
commercial investments in Zimbabwe are too risky.

Mnangagwa repeatedly made it clear during the campaign that he
wanted the election to be fair and free of controversy, specifically
so that international investors would help boost Zimbabwe's
collapsing economy.

Zimbabwe's disastrous economy is blamed on tribal and racial violence
by Mnangagwa's predecessor Robert Mugabe. Mugabe's Shona tribe
conducted genocide against the hated Ndebele tribe, killing tens of
thousands, and marginalizing them ever since. Then he conducted
racial warfare starting in 2000 by confiscating hundreds of farms
owned by white farmers, and turning them over to his Shona cronies who
didn't know how to run a farm. A lot of the racist confiscation was
performed through "land invasions," where a group of Shona tribesmen
would invade a white-owned farm, throw the white farmers off the farm,
and confiscated through force.

The result was an economic disaster that changed Zimbabwe from the
breadbasket of southern Africa into a basket case. The currency
collapsed with an inflation rate over 231 million percent, as people
were forced into starvation. Mugabe continued his "indigenization"
program by confiscating commercial businesses and turned them over to
Shona cronies who didn't know how to run businesses.

During this year's election campaign, Mnangagwa actually acknowledged
Mugabe's disastrous policies by attempting to woo white farmers
with promises to return some of their land.

Mnangagwa conceded that much of the land stolen from white farmers had
been given to powerful politicians, soldiers or tribal leaders who
knew little or nothing about farming:

<QUOTE>"I know of some chiefs who have moved from one farm to
another. Then they run it down. Then he leaves that farm and he
is issued another one. He runs it down. That time is
gone."<END QUOTE>

However, that speech was given by a politician to wealthy Zimbabweans
during election campaign. Why would anyone believe anything that a
politician says during an election campaign? At his core, Mnangagwa
is a Shona tribesman still at war with Ndebele tribesmen and whites.

Now that Mnangagwa has been declared winner of the presidential
election, he has to find a way to get international investors to
invest in Zimbabwe. And this will have to be done with actions, not
promises. Whether he can do that remains to be seen. Zimbabwe Mail and Deutsche Welle (7-Jul)

****
**** South Africa announces plans for unpaid confiscation of white-owned farms
****

South Africa's president Cyril Ramaphosa, leader of the governing
African National Congress (ANC) political party, made a surprise
announcement on Tuesday that the ANC would go ahead with aggressive
plans to confiscate white-owned farms without compensation:

<QUOTE>"The ANC reaffirms its position that the Constitution
is a mandate for radical transformation both of society and the
economy.

A proper reading of the Constitution on the property clause
enables the state to effect expropriation of land with just and
equitable compensation and also expropriation without compensation
in the public interest.

It has become patently clear that our people want the Constitution
to be more explicit about expropriation of land without
compensation, as demonstrated in the public hearings. ...

Accordingly, the ANC will, through the parliamentary process,
finalize a proposed amendment to the Constitution that outlines
more clearly the conditions under which expropriation of land
without compensation can be effected.

The intention of this proposed amendment is to promote redress,
advance economic development, increase agricultural production and
food security."<END QUOTE>

Blacks claim that farmland was owned by whites during the apartheid
era, but since South Africa achieved independence in 1994, blacks own
very little farmland, while whites own massively more. In 1994, the
ANC promised to expropriate 30% of the white-owned farms "with just and
equitable compensation," as provided for in the constitution,
and redistribute that land to black farmers.

However, 25 years later, the government has acquired only 7.9% of the
white-owned farms, and even those have mostly not been redistributed
to blacks. Therefore, there have increasingly belligerent demands
within the ANC to take action to confiscate white-owned farms.
Furthermore, rather than have the ANC provide "just and equitable
compensations," the new constitutional amendment will permit
confiscation with no compensation whatsoever.

This is exactly the policy that Zimbabwe followed, and in fact
confiscation with no compensation opens the way to the same kinds of
"land invasions," where blacks invade a white-owned farm and through
the white farmer out. The result that the value of the South African
rand currency has been falling sharply since Ramaphosa's announcement.

Ramaphosa, of course, is just another ordinary politician making a
campaign promise in advance of next year's election. Ramaphosa made
the completely empty promise to "advance economic development,
increase agricultural production and food security," even though he
has absolutely no clue how to do that and, in fact, the Zimbabwe
experiences indicates that the outcome will be disastrous.

The ANC have been forming committees and holding meetings for
over a year on the question land confiscation without compensation,
but they still haven't even come up with a description of how
the land confiscation would work. Questions that they've been
unable or unwilling to answer include the following:

• Whose land will be confiscated? Will there be any kind of
  economic test? Black groups are demanding that black-owned farms be
  off-limits, indicating that the confiscation process would be purely
  racist.
  
  
• Who will make the decisions about whose land will be confiscated?
  Will a court decide?
  
  
• Will there be any legal process in the confiscation? Will there
  be any kind of confiscation at all?
  
  
• Who will decide which blacks will receive the land? Will a court
  decide? Will the decision be tribal? Will it be political?

Even under the most benign circumstances, why would a black farmer
with no experience as a farmer do anywhere near as well as a white
farmer who has been farming for decades? He won't.

Zimbabwe used to produce enough food to feed itself, and export the
rest. After Robert Mugabe's farm confiscation program, Zimbabwe was
forced to import food, and Zimbabwe was saved by food from South
African farms. After South Africa's farm confiscation program is put
into effect, who's going to save South Africa? News24 (South Africa) and CNBC and News24 and Eyewitness News (South Africa) and The South African and News24

Related Stories

• Moving sharply left, South Africa calls for potentially disastrous land reform (01-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Operation Gukurahundi genocide becomes major Zimbabwe election issue (30-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Zimbabwe launching a Soviet style command agriculture program (20-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Xenophobic violence against migrants returns to South Africa (27-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Xenophobic violence - Generational history of South Africa (31-May-2008)
  
  
• South African xenophobic violence echoes 1820s Mfecane Zulu massacre (17-Apr-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe,
Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, Nelson Chamisa, Shona, Ndebele,
South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, African National Congress, ANC

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 5-Aug-18 World View -- China mocks America's 'Indo-Pacific' strategy at ASEAN meeting

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China mocks America's 'Indo-Pacific' strategy at ASEAN meeting
  
• Concerns grow over China's debt strategy for Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
  

****
**** China mocks America's 'Indo-Pacific' strategy at ASEAN meeting
****


Donald Trump meets Vietnam's leader Tran Dai Quang in Hanoi last year (Reuters)

Neither China nor the United States is a member of the Association of
Southeast Nations (ASEAN), but both had representatives present, and
their competing strategies were the main subjects of discussion.
ASEAN has ten members: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

For lexicographers and cartographers, the main news is that Western
nations, including Australia and the US, have given a new name to
their strategies, referring to the "Indo-Pacific strategy" instead of
the old name, "Asia-Pacific strategy."

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had earlier discussed a plan to
invest $113 million in technology, energy and infrastructure in the
Indo-Pacific region. On Saturday he added:

<QUOTE>"As part of our commitment to advancing regional
security in the Indo-Pacific, the United States is excited to
announce nearly $300 million in new funding to reinforce security
cooperation throughout the entire region."<END QUOTE>

The reason for the change in terminology is to emphasize that the
Pacific Ocean and the India Ocean form a combined strategic region.
However, the terminology change is annoying to the Chinese, who prefer
the China-centric name "Asia-Pacific," while the name "Indo-Pacific"
gives more emphasis to China's historic enemy, India.

Chinese media were bitterly scathing in their response to Pompeo's
announcements:

<QUOTE>"What is the Indo-Pacific strategy? Many complain
about its vagueness. Its most innovative part may be the name
itself. Washington probably hopes the rest of the world would stop
asking questions, tacitly understand Washington's intentions and
firmly gather around the US after a few exchanges of glances and
together begin to counter China's rising influence....

ASEAN members are not sure what the US Indo-Pacific strategy
entails. The US announced only an investment of $113 million,
which also includes India. The amount seems only sufficient to
build an overpass perhaps in the center of Mumbai. Washington is
using a strategic gimmick. It is insincere about pushing forward
economic prosperity of Indo-Pacific region....

As a concept, Indo-Pacific strategy generated some media and
psychological impact. But this is perhaps the only points it can
score. If the US wants more, this strategy will be the abyss that
consumes much US resources and its output can hardly match its
input.

What's more important, this is not the era where geopolitics rules
all. The US has treated China's Belt and Road initiative, which
focuses on mutually beneficial cooperation, as strategic
expansion, and is trying to prohibit Asia from marching forward
through connectivity. Washington's move is against historic
tide. Even if it plans to invest 100 times its current amount, the
investment will be devoured by the historic trend."<END QUOTE>

The commentary mentions China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), where
China has committed $900 billion (with a "b") to Asian countries, in
contrast to America's "paltry" commitment of $133 million (with an
"m"). Reuters and Global Times (Beijing) and Asia Times and ASEAN


****
**** Concerns grow over China's debt strategy for Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
****

Many ASEAN countries were disappointed at the lack of specifics in
Pompeo's promise that "The United States will continue to create the
conditions for mutual prosperity in a free and open Indo-Pacific."

However, many of these countries are quite concerned about the
numerous problems associated with BRI, including corruption scandals
and concerns about opaque financing, delays and mounting debt problems
linked to the loans Beijing has provided to its partner countries.

In the past couple of years, we've seen how these projects work, in
countries like Sri Lanka, Kenya, Djibouti, Malaysia and Pakistan:

• China loans a country tens of billions of dollars for
  infrastructure development.
  
  
• The country will have to repay that plus interest; failure
  to make payments means that China takes control of the infrasture
  project, such as a seaport, and the entire surrounding area.
  
  
• Local workers are given few jobs. Instead, a flood of Chinese
  workers come to the region to do all the work. There salaries are
  paid out of the loan money, which the workers often send back to
  China. So the country has to repay the loan plus pay the salaries,
  which means that the country repays the loan to China twice, plus
  interest.
  
  
• All parts and services for the infrastructure project are
  purchased from China, and paid for out of the loan money. Once again,
  the country is repaying the loan to China twice, this time for the
  parts.
  
  
• China establishes a large community of Chinese workers and
  families around the infrastructure project. As we've described in the past,
  these Chinese
  workers and families are controlled by Beijing's international
  coercive propaganda agency, the "United Front Work Department" (UFWD).
  They will be around for decades, because they have to do the
  maintenance after the project is completed.

Malaysia has suspended a $14 billion rail line because of graft and
corruption. Pakistan cancelled a $14 billion dam project last year
because of excessive debts. Kenya accused China of "neo-colonialism,
racism and blatant discrimination." Other countries are extremely
anxious about Chinese investments.

The US offer of $113 million plus $300 million is paltry compared
to China's offer, but the US offer is aid, not a loan, and
it's the local workers who will build the infrastructure project.

That's why, when announcing these aid packages, Pompeo emphasized
"partnership, not domination" in Asia, and promised to "create the
conditions for mutual prosperity in a free and open Indo-Pacific."
Nikkei and Malay Mail and Washington Examiner

Related Articles

• Australia passes foreign influence laws, targeting China (29-Jun-2018)
  
  
• China's railway contractor in Kenya accused of 'neo-colonialism, racism and blatant discrimination' (14-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Mahathir promises to reduce Malaysia's debt and China's influence (31-May-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan overwhelmed and China alarmed over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) (12-Dec-2017)
  
  
• China takes control of strategic Hambantota seaport in Sri Lanka, raising concerns in India (11-Dec-2017)
  
  
• China establishes its first foreign military base, in Djibouti (13-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN,
Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam,
China, Asia-Pacific, Indo-Pacific, India, Mike Pompeo,
Sri Lanka, Kenya, Djibouti, Malaysia, Pakistan

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-Aug-18 World View -- John Bolton and Marco Rubio describe North Korea strategy, as sanctions are violated

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• UN report: North Korea nuclear and missile development continues
  
• John Bolton and Marco Rubio describe administration's North Korea strategy
  

****
**** UN report: North Korea nuclear and missile development continues
****


North Korea foreign minister Ri Yong Ho slammed the Trump administration for refusing to lift sanctions (AFP)

A confidential report to the United Nations Security Council says that
during the last six months, not only has North Korea not stopped
development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles but, even worse,
North Korea is stepping up plans to sell weapons to other countries,
including to the Houthis in Yemen. Now when we talk about the war in
Yemen, instead of the "Iran-backed Houthis," we can refer to the
"Iran-backed and North Korea backed Houthis."

According to the report:

<QUOTE>"[North Korea] has not stopped its nuclear and missile
programs and continued to defy Security Council resolutions
through a massive increase in illicit ship-to-ship transfers of
petroleum products, as well as through transfers of coal at sea
during 2018."<END QUOTE>

North Korea also violated a textile ban by exporting more than $100
million in goods to China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Thailand,
Turkey and Uruguay within the same time period.

North Korea has also offered "a range of conventional arms, and in
some cases ballistic missiles to armed groups in Yemen and Libya," and
particularly to the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. There is no report
on whether the sales were actually made.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking at the ASEAN conference, said
in response to the reports:

<QUOTE>"If these reports prove accurate, and we have every
reason to believe that they are, that would be in violation. I
want to remind every nation that has supported these resolutions
that this is a serious issue and something we will discuss with
Moscow.

[The US expects] all countries to abide to the UN Security Council
resolutions and enforce sanctions on North Korea. Any violation
that detracts from the world's goal of finally, fully
denuclearizing North Korea would be something that America would
take very seriously."<END QUOTE>

Pompeo did not specify what action or retaliation the US would take
against every country violating the sanctions, but there have been
widespread reports of violations by several countries, and no action
has been taken. In particular, Russia has been accused of bringing in
thousands of North Korean "guest workers," who act as virtual slaves,
and whose salaries are sent back to the North Korean regime.

However, Pompeo's remarks were met with sharp rebukes by the
representative of North Korea, Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, who said
that Washington was "raising its voice louder" in anger, despite
goodwill me

North Korea's foreign minister Ri Yong Ho slammed the United States
for insisting on sanctions, and prioritizing them higher than
"confidence-building," which apparently refers to removing sanctions:

<QUOTE>"Confidence is not a sentiment to be cultivated
overnight. In order to build full confidence between the DPRK
[North Korea] and the US, it is essential for both sides to take
simultaneous actions and phased steps to do what is possible one
after another."<END QUOTE>

He said that North Korea had done its part with goodwill measures such
as the moratorium on nuclear testing and the dismantling of a nuclear
site. But instead of reciprocating these goodwill measures, he
accused the US of "raising its voice louder" for maintaining sanctions
against North Korea, and was "showing the attitude to retreat even
from declaring the end of war, a very basic and primary step for
providing peace on the Korean peninsula." Declaring an end to the
Korean War, which is still theoretically in progress, though under a
ceasefire, would require removing American troops from South Korea, a
key objective of North Korea. It would also require removing the
THAAD missile defense system, a key objective of China. Reuters and Deutsche Welle and Straits Times


****
**** John Bolton and Marco Rubio describe administration's North Korea strategy
****

As I've written many times, everything that the Trump administration
has done in foreign policy since Donald Trump took office makes
complete sense to me, which is in contrast to Obama's foreign policy,
which never made sense. The reason that Trump's foreign policy makes
sense is because everything he does is consistent with the
Generational Dynamics analyses that I've been posting for years.
Trump understands these analyses because he was educated by his former
principal advisor Steve Bannon, whom I've worked with for years, and
who is an expert on both military history and Generational Dynamics.
It's worth mentioning this because the mainstream press and mainstream
analysts are always completely and totally baffled by the
administration's foreign policy, even though it is consistent and
makes complete sense, provided you focus on actions, not PR tweets.

On Sunday, responding to questions about the UN report, national
security adviser John Bolton and Senator Marco Rubio described the
administration strategy toward North Korea at the present time.

As I've been writing for many months, based on Generational Dynamics
analyses, is that there is no chance whatsoever that North Korea will
give up its nuclear development program now or in the future, after
having tortured, starved and brutalized their own population for three
decades, under the promise that one day North Korea would be a nuclear
power on a peer with the United States.

North Korea has one and only one objective in the charm offensive
since the beginning of the year and in Kim's summit meetings with
Trump and South Korean leaders: To get the US-led sanctions lifted
without having to give up its development of nuclear missiles
targeting the United States.

Saturday's statements by North Korea's foreign minister harshly
criticizing the US for not reciprocating North Korea's "goodwill
measures" and instead demanding that sanctions be continued is in line
with this objective.

During John Bolton's interview on Sunday, he said the following:

<QUOTE>"As I've said to you and others before, there's nobody
in his administration starry eyed about the prospects of North
Korea actually denuclearizing.

But I think what's going on now is that the president is giving
Kim Jong-un on a master class on how to hold a door open for
somebody. And if the North Koreans can't figure out how to walk
through it, even the president's fiercest critics will not be able
to say it's because he didn't open it wide enough.

We are going to have to see a performance from the North Koreans.
There's no question about it."<END QUOTE>

This is a very interesting statement, and reflects a strategy that I
haven't heard previously from the administration. As I've suggested
in the past, North Korea will continue nuclear missile development no
matter what the Trump administration does, and since it doesn't make
any different what action is taken, the administration should choose
actions that when the inevitable nuclear confrontation happens, the
North Koreans and the Chinese will be blamed for it, not the United
States. This is crucial from the point of view of historians ten or
twenty years from now, looking back and saying that it was North
Korea, not the United States, that was to blame for what happened.
Bolton's remarks on Trump giving "a master class on how to hold a door
open for somebody" are exactly in line with that objective.

Senator Marco Rubio, who is on the Senate and Intelligence and Foreign
Relations Committees, was also interviewed on Fox News, and gave
additional strategic information:

<QUOTE>"Well, I'm about to tell you I hope I'm wrong about,
but I do not believe that he is ever going to give up his nuclear
arsenal. What I do believe he will do is a series of unilateral
concessions that do not undermine his capabilities in the long
term. For example, I think he's more than willing to tear apart
facilities that are no longer necessary for old missiles because
he's got newer ones that work better. I believe he has undisclosed
sites that he thinks he can shield from the world. I believe that
he believes that even if he gets rid of some of the new enrichment
capabilities, he already has existing weapons and existing
enriched capabilities that he can hide from the from the world.

And every single time that he does one of these productions he is
engendering goodwill internationally, which is ultimately his
goal, to undermine international support for sanctions by arguing,
"Look at all these things I'm doing, the Americans are not
reciprocating," and undermining sanctions at the U.N. and
internationally. That's his goal in my opinion."<END QUOTE>

The interviewer Chris Wallace said: "Isn't Kim succeeding in lowering
the temperature, breaking apart the alliance of sanctions, and isn't
president Trump being played?"

Rubio responded, "I don't know if the president is being played. I
think he's hoping for the best but prepared for the worst. The
sanctions remained in place. We haven't changed a single sanction on
North Korea."

Once again, this makes complete sense because it's consistent with the
Generational Dynamics analyses that I've been posting for months. As
I've said in the past, Trump can't prevent a world war, but I'm not
going to criticize Trump for taking steps to try to prevent a world
war, even if doing so is impossible.

One more related subject that the mainstream media is completely
baffled about is the issue of Russia. I must hear reporters ask the
same question a dozen times a day: Why is Trump so "nice" to Vladimir
Putin and Russia, when he's not so "nice" to China and in fact is
conducting a trade war?

Once again, this makes perfect sense, as I've been describing for
years. Russia will be our ally in the coming world war, just as the
Soviet Union was our ally in World War II, even though it was a bitter
enemy before and after World War II. Generational Dynamics predicts
that this bit of history will repeat itself, so of course it makes
sense for Trump to be "nice" to Russia. This will be of help later.

As for the trade war against China, this is a dangerous game. An
American oil embargo against Japan in 1941 led to Japan's attack on
Pearl Harbor several months later, and this trade war might trigger a
similar response from China today. In a sense it doesn't make any
difference, since China has been arming itself militarily to
pre-emptively attack the United States at a time of its choosing, so
the trade war might force China to move up the attack to a time when
it will not be as well prepared. However, there's no question that
this is a dangerous move.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is
an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies,"
the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war
between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other.
Fox News

Related Articles:

• North Korea appears to dismantle its Sohae satellite launch site (26-Jul-2018)
  
  
• North Korea issues vitriolic anti-US rant, collapsing denuclearization talks (08-Jul-2018)
  
  
• After the Kim-Trump summit, US and N. Korea plan denuclearization details (14-Jun-2018)
  
  
• North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit (25-May-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Donald Trump, Steve Bannon and Generational Dynamics (07-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea,
John Bolton, Marco Rubio, Steve Bannon,
China, Russia, Mike Pompeo, Yemen, Houthi, Iran,
Ghana, India, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey, Uruguay,
Russia, Ri Yong Ho, Kim Jong-un, Chris Wallace

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

Did anyone think that this unilateral deal would work? There is no enforcement.

[John J. Xenakis]

(08-06-2018, 11:10 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Did anyone think that this unilateral deal would work? There is no
> enforcement.

In the fantasy where denuclearization goes ahead, there are UN IAEA
inspectors going to all North Korean nuclear and missile development
sites, to verify that NK isn't cheating. Just reading over that last
sentence, anyone who knows anything about NK knows how preposterous it
is. It's all fantasy.

[David Horn]

(08-06-2018, 11:53 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(08-06-2018, 11:10 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Did anyone think that this unilateral deal would work? There is no enforcement.  

In the fantasy where denuclearization goes ahead, there are UN IAEA inspectors going to all North Korean nuclear and missile development sites, to verify that NK isn't cheating.  Just reading over that last sentence, anyone who knows anything about NK knows how preposterous it is.  It's all fantasy.

The real question: why did anyone take this even a little seriously?  Have we entered the era of the post-serious Presidency, where entertainment value trumps all?

[John J. Xenakis]

(08-06-2018, 02:33 PM)David Horn Wrote: > The real question: why did anyone take this even a little
> seriously? Have we entered the era of the post-serious
> Presidency, where entertainment value trumps all?

Yeah, a lot of leftist loons have been openly hoping that the nuclear
negotiations would fail, so that it could be chalked up as a Trump
failure. Never mind that it could mean war with North Korea -- to
these idiots, war, nuclear fallout, starvation, etc. and anything else
is preferable to Trump.

It's like that idiot Bill Maher declaring that he wants a major
recession to occur, so that Trump will be blamed. The left-wing
racist pigs have been particularly out in force with regard to the
unemployment rate for blacks being the lowest in history. These
left-wing racist pigs in the Democratic party would rather that the
uppity blacks remain in the slaves' quarters rather than be employed
and earn enough money to get homes of their own, since then they might
vote for Republicans. Better to keep them in slaves' quarters, where
they'll vote for Democrats.

Getting back to Korea, a lot of people on the right might agree with
you. Instead of negotiating with North Korea, they would have
preferred right at the beginning military action, targeting the
nuclear and missile development sites. I guess that's your position
too. Lovely. Anything's better than Trump. Right?

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 7-Aug-18 World View -- Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan elects anti-American far right religious Imran Khan to be prime minister
  
• Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC
  

****
**** Pakistan elects anti-American far right religious Imran Khan to be prime minister
****


Imran Khan (Getty)

Imran Khan, who will be taking the oath of office as prime minister of
Pakistan in a few days, as his political party, Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)
(Movement for Justice), seems poised to form a governing coalition,
following the July 25 national elections.

Khan, a Pashtun born in 1952, is extremely popular and charismatic.
He was one of Pakistan's greatest cricket players of all time. In the
1990s, he was voted as the "Sexiest Man of The Year" by the Australia
Magazine Oz.

Khan's views are strongly Islamist, closely associated with Pakistan's
religious far right, even to the point of supporting Pakistan's
draconian blasphemy law which allows any Pakistani citizen to kill
another person with impunity, provided that he first accuses the
person he's going to kill of blasphemy. He's anti-American, has
promised to distance Pakistan from the United States, has condemned
NATO airstrikes on terrorists in Pakistan, and has promised to resolve
the Kashmir issue with India in Pakistan's favor. This could be
important when the army and intelligence services ask for a favor in
return for helping to get him elected. The News (Pakistan) and Washington Post

****
**** Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC
****

Like all politicians, Khan made plenty of campaign promises that he
won't be able to fulfill. He promised to create an "Islamic welfare
state," with big public spending on health and education. In fact,
his campaign speeches were totally delusional.

Imran Khan will not have much time to celebrate his victory, as
Pakistan is so short of foreign reserves that it could be forced into
bankruptcy within a month, and his "Islamic welfare state" is just a
distant dream.

Pakistan and China like to say that they're "all-weather friends," but
the reason for Pakistan's enormous mountain of debt is the $52 billion
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), part of China's Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI), which China has been using to force a number of
countries into a debt trap.

The goal of the CPEC is to connect China's western Xinjiang province
to the Gwadar port in southern Pakistan by means of a collection of
highways and railways. The project is to be completed by 2030.

We've described a number of these projects in the past, and they have
common elements. China lends tens of billions of dollars to a country
to build an infrastructure project. China supplies thousands of
workers and their families to do the building. Chinese companies are
used to provide equipment and supplies. The country must pay for all
these Chinese workers and equipment with money from the loan, which
means that most of the money gets sent back to China. The country
must still repay the loan, which means that it's paying China twice
for the same loan. And the country is left for decades with a large
Chinese community of workers and families controled by Beijing's
international coercive propaganda agency, the "United Front Work
Department" (UFWD).

Pakistan has been borrowing money "like crazy" for the last five
years. Imports for energy, machinery, transport equipment and metals
have skyrocketed because of CPEC and because of rising oil prices.
Meanwhile exports, mainly textiles, have increased only slightly. As
a result, the country's foreign currency reserves have declined to
about $10.3 billion, enough to cover less than two months of imports.
If Pakistan cannot pay for imports, then the entire CPEC project would
be in danger.

In June, China granted an emergency loan to Pakistan for $1 billion to
cover payments for imports till the end of August.

According to one analyst, Pakistan was unable to turn to Saudi Arabia
for a loan because Pakistan had refused in 2016 to join the Saudi-led
coalition waging a war in Yemen.

So Pakistan has been forced to turn to its all-weather friend China
for one loan after another. This has alarmed even some Pakistani
officials, because the country has become so dependent on China.

In the past, China has borrowed from the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) for emergency funds, and wants to do so again. But
there are several issues:

• Pakistan hasn't yet fully repaid the money it borrowed
  from the IMF in 2013.
  
  
• As it does with every countries that borrows from it, the IMF
  would demand structural economic reforms and impose austerity measures
  on Pakistan that might be considered severe or draconian.
  
  
• The IMF would demand detailed information about Pakistan's
  financial relationship with China, and China wants that information
  kept secret.
  
  
• President Donald Trump has already expressed some opposition
  about an IMF loan to Pakistan, because the money would simply
  go to China.

As a private citizen, Imran Khan has criticized the IMF in the past,
and has criticized Pakistan's government for borrowing from the IMF.
Now that he's going to be prime minister, he may have to change his
tune. Dawn (Pakistan)
and AFP and Dawn and
South China Morning Post and Al Jazeera

Related Articles:

• Pakistan's anti-American 'hope and change' candidate Imran Khan runs again (30-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan's Imran Khan blockades supplies to Nato in Afghanistan (26-Nov-2013)
  
  
• Pakistan protesters end their blockade of the Nato supply route (28-Feb-2014)
  
  
• Pakistan's army called to quell massive anti-government protest (20-Aug-2014)
  
  
• Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is (15-Aug-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Imran Khan,
Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI, Movement for Justice,
China, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Xinjiang, Gwadar port,
United Front Work Department, UFWD.
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

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John J. Xenakis
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[David Horn]

(08-06-2018, 02:57 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(08-06-2018, 02:33 PM)David Horn Wrote: The real question: why did anyone take this even a little seriously?  Have we entered the era of the post-serious Presidency, where entertainment value trumps all?

Yeah, a lot of leftist loons have been openly hoping that the nuclear negotiations would fail, so that it could be chalked up as a Trump failure.  Never mind that it could mean war with North Korea -- to these idiots, war, nuclear fallout, starvation, etc. and anything else is preferable to Trump.

It's like that idiot Bill Maher declaring that he wants a major recession to occur, so that Trump will be blamed.  The left-wing racist pigs have been particularly out in force with regard to the unemployment rate for blacks being the lowest in history.  These left-wing racist pigs in the Democratic party would rather that the uppity blacks remain in the slaves' quarters rather than be employed and earn enough money to get homes of their own, since then they might vote for Republicans.  Better to keep them in slaves' quarters, where they'll vote for Democrats.

Getting back to Korea, a lot of people on the right might agree with you.  Instead of negotiating with North Korea, they would have preferred right at the beginning military action, targeting the nuclear and missile development sites.  I guess that's your position too.  Lovely.  Anything's better than Trump.  Right?

First: U3 is low, but workforce penetration is abysmal.  Chalk that up to the gig economy, and the way we measure unemployment.  The GOP hasn't presided over higher employment, higher wages or improved working conditions.  Quite to the contrary.  So the U3 numbers aren't fake news, but they are mostly irrelevant.

Second: Kissy-Huggy in Singapore is far from a successful negotiation or even a modest breakthrough.  You, of all people, should know that.