Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Jan-19 World View -- Suspension of daily World View articles

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• South Korea vs Japan military 'radar lock' feud continues to escalate
  
• Suspension of daily World View articles
  
• Generational Dynamics development of generational theory
  

****
**** South Korea vs Japan military 'radar lock' feud continues to escalate
****


Japanese patrol plane launches anti-missile flares during a fleet review in 2015 (AFP)

According to Japan, on December 20 a South Korean warship locked its
fire-control radar onto a Japanese patrol plane, as if preparing to
shoot it down. Japan made a formal protest to South Korea, claiming
that it was a "hostile act."

South Korea says that it was a maritime search and rescue operation,
with naval forces and supporting coast guard vessels, and that any
radar that was used was only ship-to-ship between Korean vessels.
Japan rejected this explanation.

South Korea then demanded that Tokyo offer a "smoking gun" -- its
analysis of radar frequency data to verify whether the destroyer sent
the warplane any signals from its tracking radar. Tokyo rejected the
call, saying it won't offer sensitive information on its "operational
capabilities."

Then, on December 28, Japan released a 13-minute video of the interior
of the patrol plane at the time of the incident, where a crew member
remarked on the plane’s systems picking up an “extremely strong”
reading.

South Korea then became more aggressive, urging Japan to apologize for
the patrol plane's low-altitude flight, which was "threatening" to the
South Korean warship, and criticized Tokyo's "unilateral,
misguided" claims. South Korea then released its own video,
saying that it refutes Tokyo's arguments.

Now, on Saturday, Japan indicated that on Sunday it might release an
audio recording of its crew at the time of the incident. South Korea
is accusing Japan of planning to use it to "distort the facts" and
release "incorrect" information.

Memories of World War II are still very raw between the two
countries, and now that the WW II survivors are gone, younger
generations are seeking revenge. Japan colonized Korea
from 1905 to 1945, and used Koreans as "comfort women" during
the war.

In 2015, Japan and Korea concluded a bilateral agreement which was
intended at the time as the “final and irreversible” resolution of the
comfort women issue. However, South Korea is now demanding that issue
be reopened.

Another issue is that, last year, because of the "charm offensive"
between North and South Korea, South Korea's military canceled the
purchase of a number of weapons whose purpose was to defend against a
North Korean invasion of Seoul. The Japanese view this as an
opportunity to redirect those funds towards weapons systems that can
be used against the Japanese.

The "radar lock" issue started out looking like something really
trivial, but as time has passed, tensions on both sides have rapidly
escalated, and the probability that the controversy or some other
misunderstanding could lead to a wider conflict is increasing.
Japan Times and Yonhap (Seoul, 1-Jan) and Diplomat (12-Jan) and Defense News (17-May-2018)

Related Articles:

• Japan-Korea relations worsen over 'comfort women' issue (17-Dec-2018)
  
  
• China funds unauthorized anti-Japan comfort woman statue in Manila, Philippines (28-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Japan and China in confrontation over comfort women (07-Mar-2007)
  
  
• China and Japan really DO hate each other (30-Aug-2013)
  

****
**** Suspension of daily World View articles
****

I'm suspending daily World View articles because most of the work on
generational theory has been completed, and because the best use of my
time right now is to concentrate on finishing up my book on China.

Since 2003, I've posted over 6,000 articles on my web site, all of
them well-sourced through multiple sources, and non-ideological.
There is no "fake news" in any of them.

These articles contain thousands of generational analyses and
predictions of over 100 countries. All of these analyses and
predictions are true or are trending true. None has turned out to be
wrong.

My work in the last ten years has been groundbreaking, on the behavior
of how a country acts in the decades after a major civil war, a
generational crisis civil war. This is a breakthrough on analyzing
and predicting the behavior of the population, the generations, and
the politicians, and showing how these nations all act pretty much the
same as each other, though differently from countries after a major
external war (invading or being invaded).

Generational Dynamics now provides the tools to government officials,
historians, journalists, and geopolitical analysts -- if they want to
use them -- to correctly analyze what's happening in the world, what
will happen next, and what the likely outcome is of different policy
decisions. No other analytical tools, besides Generational Dynamics,
have ever provided successful predictions at this level of accuracy
and usefulness.

****
**** Generational Dynamics development of generational theory
****

For most countries, the last generational crisis war was World War II.
But that's not true for all countries. Many countries were relatively
untouched by WW II, and had crisis wars at other times.

Many African nations (e.g., Kenya, Nigeria, Cameroon, Algeria, etc.)
had crisis wars in the 1950s-60s related to their individual wars of
independence from colonialism. Some non-African countries
(Burma/Myanmar, Indonesia, Bangladesh) did as well. Many Middle
Eastern countries had a generational crisis during the World War I
time period, and then cycled into a new crisis war in the 1970s-90s
(Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan). Some countries
(Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Morocco, Turkey, Russia) haven't had
generational crisis wars for a very long time, and studying those has
produced significant discoveries about suicide bombers and terrorists.
The most recent generational crisis wars were in Central African
Republic, Darfur (Sudan) and Sri Lanka.

Writing about these nations has provided a wealth of opportunities to
make comparisons. For example, both America in the 1960s and Iran in
the 2000s were in their respective generational Awakening eras. By
doing detailed social and political analyses, one can find
similarities (student demonstrations, anti-government protests, a
social "generation gap" between survivors of the war and those growing
up afterwards) and differences (occasional low-level violence versus
major violent government crackdowns, using torture, rapes, beatings
and arbitrary jailing). Where differences exist, it's not in kind,
but in intensity.

During my research in the past 15 years, I've done many tens of
thousands of such analyses and comparative analyses, systematically
comparing and contrasting social and political behaviors of different
countries at different times in history and during similar or
different generational eras. Of these, I've written thousands of
articles about them, and documented conclusions. Starting in 2010, I
began writing an article every day, and I've written thousands of
article since them. This has allowed me to thoroughly document
generational theory research and how it is applied to hundreds of
countries over many centuries, with the result that, in many ways,
development of generational theory is now near-completed and
empirically proved.

However, there's been a problem. Each time I write about a country, I
have to say the same things over and over, with only the details
changed. So, for example, when I write about Cambodia, I talk about
the 1970s Killing Fields genocide, how it's affected Cambodian society
since then, through Recovery and Awakening generational eras in a
predictable way. So when prime minister Hun Sen commits each horrific
new atrocity, the only real difference between one article and the
next is the nature of the new atrocity. The core generational
analysis of Cambodia remains the same. This has gotten really boring
to write over and over and also boring to read, and of course I don't
get paid for these articles, and so it's hard to see anymore what the
point is of writing boring unpaid articles every day under those
circumstances.

<QUOTE>"What do people gain from all their labors at which
they toil under the sun? Generations come and generations go, but
the earth remains forever.

The sun rises and the sun sets, and hurries back to where it
rises. The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round
and round it goes, ever returning on its course. All streams flow
into the sea, yet the sea is never full. To the place the streams
come from, there they return again. All things are wearisome,
more than one can say. The eye never has enough of seeing, nor
the ear its fill of hearing.

What has been will be again, what has been done will be done
again; there is nothing new under the sun.

Is there anything of which one can say, “Look! This is something
new”? It was here already, long ago; it was here before our time.
No one remembers the former generations, and even those yet to
come will not be remembered by those who follow
them. -- Ecclesiastes I."<END QUOTE>

On the other hand, the book that I wrote on Iran last year was a very
interesting project, and is the best book available today for those
who wish to understand Iran, the history of Islam, and the nature of
the Sunni-Shia split.

Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East.

I'm now working on a great book on China which is also a very
interesting project, and the best use of my time right now is to
complete that book, as well as possibly one more. We're headed to a
world war with China, possibly very soon, and I've already done a
great deal of historical research on China to determine why China's
leadership is so paranoid, barbaric and incompetent, how they've
completely lost their own Mandate from Heaven, why China's
hard-working citizens tolerate these worthless barbarians, and what
sequence of events is likely to occur in the next few months.

So I'm suspending the daily World View articles, but I'll still write
occasional articles every few days, when a news event occurs that I
would find interesting to analyze. Hopefully, these less frequent
articles will be more interesting to read, as well. I might also post
brief items on the Generational Dynamics forum. We'll experiment and
see what happens and how this works out.

I know that not having me around every day will be a cause for
celebration among Russian trolls and Bashar al-Assad acolytes, and I
hope you enjoy your champagne. For everybody else, thank you for
reading my articles, and I welcome questions and comments through my
GenerationalDynamics.com web site or the Generational Dynamics forum.



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Japan, radar lock,
Cambodia, Hun Sen, Ecclesiastes, Iran, China

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

On Russia -- rich culture and some scientific glory (especially on mathematics, agronomy, and linguistics) -- but horrible politics.

On Bashir Assad -- there's nothing wrong with him that a well-tied rope and a seven-foot dropwouldn't solve.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Jan-19 World View -- George Soros speech at Davos marks significant global shift against China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Reformulation of daily World View articles
  
• George Soros speech at Davos marks significant global shift against China
  
• Soros's history with the Nazis and with China
  
• China is baffled by Soros's speech
  
• China's genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Uighurs
  

****
**** Reformulation of daily World View articles
****


George Soros last week at World Economic Forum (WEF)

As I announced last week,
I've
suspended the daily World View articles, because the best use of my
time right now is to concentrate on finishing up my book on China.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been performing one barbaric act
after another, from militarizing the South China Sea to arresting,
beating, raping, torturing and executing over a million Muslim Uighurs
in Xinjiang province, as well as similar violence against Christians
and Buddhists.

My research on my book has been to determine from China's history how
this happened. I've found so far that every CCP policy is connected
in some way to the "century of humiliation," and particularly to
events surrounding the 1860 Treaty of Tanjin, almost like a serial
killer's actions are linked to some traumatic childhood event.

In research for my book, my objective is to determine the following:

• How does China's history dictate its current barbaric
  policies?
  
• How long will the hard-working Chinese people tolerate the abusive
  CCP policies?
  
• What will China do next, and in what time frame?

I'm experimenting with a new format for posting news stories, as well
as continuing research on China. Instead of a long, complex article
every day, I will be posting short news briefs, sometimes several
times a day.

This is in the following thread of the Generational Dynamics Forum:
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168

Since I'm also doing extensive research on China for my book on China,
this thread also contains research analyses on China that are not
available in the mainstream media.

In past decades, everyone in the world wanted China to succeed in
becoming an economic powerhouse and a responsible member of the
international community. For this reason, numerous concessions were
granted to China and billions of dollars were invested in China to
make this happen. Instead of becoming a responsible member of the
international community, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has turned
into barbaric monsters.

My research has already developed partial answers to these questions.
Further research will be posted in this forum thread linked above, and
of course will appear in the final book. Those who are interested in
world events, and particularly in where China is going, are asked to
visit this thread.

****
**** George Soros speech at Davos marks significant global shift against China
****

From a geopolitical point of view, the most significant event at last
week's World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, was the
speech on Thursday given by Hungarian-born left-wing billionaire
George Soros, who has a long-standing vitriolic hatred of the
political right. Soros launched into a scathing historical criticism
of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

One analyst at Davos that I heard said that "Soros said what everyone
was afraid to say, but what everyone is thinking." The reason that
everyone is afraid to say this is because they all have huge amounts
of money invested in China and are afraid to lose it. And the reason
that everyone is thinking this is because the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) commits one barbaric act after another, from theft of
intellectual property to illegal militarizing the South China Sea to
"debt trap diplomacy" with dozens of countries, to violence, beatings,
rape, and execution of Christians, Buddhists and Muslims for their
religious beliefs.

So if Soros is saying what everyone is thinking -- which I believe to
be true -- then it means that the attitude of the world has turned a
corner, and is substantially more hostile to the policies of the CCP
than in the past. Soros said:

<QUOTE>"I want to use my time tonight to warn the world about
an unprecedented danger that’s threatening the very survival of
open societies. ...

Tonight I want to call attention to the mortal danger facing open
societies from the instruments of control that machine learning
and artificial intelligence can put in the hands of repressive
regimes. I’ll focus on China, where Xi Jinping wants a one-party
state to reign supreme.

A lot of things have happened since last year and I’ve learned a
lot about the shape that totalitarian control is going to take in
China. ...

All the rapidly expanding information available about a person is
going to be consolidated in a centralized database to create a
“social credit system.” Based on that data, people will be
evaluated by algorithms that will determine whether they pose a
threat to the one-party state. People will then be treated
accordingly.

The social credit system is not yet fully operational, but it’s
clear where it’s heading. It will subordinate the fate of the
individual to the interests of the one-party state in ways
unprecedented in history.

I find the social credit system frightening and abhorrent.
Unfortunately, some Chinese find it rather attractive because it
provides information and services that aren’t currently available
and can also protect law-abiding citizens against enemies of the
state.

China isn’t the only authoritarian regime in the world, but it’s
undoubtedly the wealthiest, strongest and most developed in
machine learning and artificial intelligence. This makes Xi
Jinping the most dangerous opponent of those who believe in the
concept of open society. But Xi isn’t alone. Authoritarian regimes
are proliferating all over the world and if they succeed, they
will become totalitarian."<END QUOTE>

George Soros and Financial Advisor and Diplomat

****
**** Soros's history with the Nazis and with China
****

Soros told of his childhood in Hungary, escaping from the Nazis and
the Soviet occupation, and taking refuge in England, where he became a
successful hedge fund investor. After he made more money than he knew
what to do with, he decided to turn to philanthropy. He started with
South Africa.

<QUOTE>"In the years that followed, I tried to replicate my
success in Hungary and in other Communist countries. I did rather
well in the Soviet empire, including the Soviet Union itself, but
in China it was a different story. ...

Bao Tong was its champion. But the opponents of radical reforms,
who were numerous, banded together to attack him. They claimed
that I was a CIA agent and asked the internal security agency to
investigate.

[Bao Tong was replaced by Zhao Ziyang.] Soon thereafter, Zhao
Ziyang was removed from power and I used that excuse to close the
foundation. This happened just before the Tiananmen Square
massacre in 1989 and it left a “black spot” on the record of the
people associated with the foundation. ...

In retrospect, it’s clear that I made a mistake in trying to
establish a foundation which operated in ways that were alien to
people in China."<END QUOTE>

Soros went on to sharply criticize the "debt trap diplomacy" of the
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI):

<QUOTE>"It was designed to promote the interests of China,
not the interests of the recipient countries; its ambitious
infrastructure projects were mainly financed by loans, not by
grants, and foreign officials were often bribed to accept
them. Many of these projects proved to be
uneconomic."<END QUOTE>

He specifically mentioned the cases in Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and
Pakistan -- where it's turning into a military project.

Soros went on to praise US president Donald Trump and vice-president
Mike Pence:

<QUOTE>"Most importantly, the US government has now
identified China as a “strategic rival.” President Trump is
notoriously unpredictable, but this decision was the result of a
carefully prepared plan. Since then, the idiosyncratic behavior of
Trump has been largely superseded by a China policy adopted by the
agencies of the administration and overseen by Asian affairs
advisor of the National Security Council Matt Pottinger and
others. The policy was outlined in a seminal speech by Vice
President Mike Pence on October 4th. ...

Last year I still believed that China ought to be more deeply
embedded in the institutions of global governance, but since then
Xi Jinping’s behavior has changed my opinion. My present view is
that instead of waging a trade war with practically the whole
world, the US should focus on China. Instead of letting ZTE and
Huawei off lightly, it needs to crack down on them. If these
companies came to dominate the 5G market, they would present an
unacceptable security risk for the rest of the world.

Regrettably, President Trump seems to be following a different
course: make concessions to China and declare victory while
renewing his attacks on US allies. This is liable to undermine the
US policy objective of curbing China’s abuses and
excesses."<END QUOTE>

Soros's speech is important because of what it serves as a major
signal that the world's attitude is changing towards China, and
that it's increasingly acceptable to say so.

The last two paragraphs indicate that Soros is misjudging China today
as much as when he opened his China Fund in the 1980s. As I've
described many times, the mainstream media are completely baffled by
Trump's policies, but the policies are completely understandable in
view of Trump's attempts to prevent war with China, even though war
with China cannot be prevented. If Trump cracked down heavily on ZTE
and Huawei, it would have enormous economic effects. China would be
furious and even destabilized, and war would occur much more quickly.

****
**** China is baffled by Soros's speech
****

Just as Soros is baffled by Trump's policies, China is baffled by
Soros's speech. Here's the statement given by China's Foreign
Ministry:

<QUOTE>"On your second question, I have seen relevant
reports. In today's world, it is very easy to tell who is opening
the door and paving roads and who is closing the door and building
walls. Therefore, it is meaningless and worthless to refute these
words made by certain individual that call white black and confuse
right and wrong. Living in this era where globalization is
advancing further on all fronts, only by seeing things in a
dynamic way and taking in things with an open and inclusive mind
can a country find greater development space for itself and its
relations with other countries. We hope that the relevant people
on the US side can set right their attitude, broaden their
horizon, and view China's development in an objective, reasonable
and correct way."<END QUOTE>

This is just meaningless babble, and it seems to imply that Soros is
speaking for the Trump administration. The reason that China is
baffled is because Soros has a decades long history of supporting
China. Soros says in his speech that he made a 180 degree U-turn
because of China's "frightening and abhorrent" social credit system in
just the last year, and the Chinese have no idea what Soros's change
of mind means for them and their relations with the world. China Foreign Ministry

****
**** China's genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Uighurs
****

For several months, we've read that China has swept up a million
Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang province and jailed them in "re-education
centers," where they're beaten, tortured, raped, abused and executed.

Some recent analyses are saying that China's plans go well beyond
"re-education." In fact, the plan is the total genocide and ethnic
cleansing of Muslim Uighurs in the next ten years.

According to this analysis, there has been no international outrage
about this because Sunni Muslims are so unpopular since 9/11. China
has been adroit in using economic and financial packages to silence
the Arab and Islamic world's support for the Uighurs. Despite the
suppression, not one single Arab or Islamic government has spoken out
openly to criticize China for its draconian measures in Xinjiang.

China is conducting equally violent crackdowns on Buddhism and
Christianity, though without the full-scale genocide.

One thing that's really remarkable is that there are now three
countries in the world where there is full-scale genocide and ethnic
cleansing targeting Sunni Muslims, with little international outrage
even from Muslim countries. These are:

• China's genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni Muslim Uighurs
  in Xinjiang province.
  
• Burma's (Myanmar's) genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni Muslim
  Rohingyas, led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu.
  
• Bashar al-Assad's genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni Muslim
  Arabs in Syria.

This is a historic event that will have very serious consequences.
Hoover.org (9-Oct-2018) and Straits Times (28-Sep-2018) and Memri (19-Dec-2018)

Related Articles:

• Fifteen countries challenge China's human rights in Xinjiang province (16-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Genocide of Rohingyas in Burma (Myanmar) appears to be almost complete (27-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria (01-Dec-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, George Soros, Davos,
World Economic Forum, WEF, Hungary,
South Africa, Soviet Union,
China, China Fund, Social credit system,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Pakistan

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Hintergrund]

I definitely can imagine that Africa had Crisis wars during the 60s. Their Turnings don't work like ours. One point for you.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Feb-19 World View -- India's Open Magazine: The West gets constantly surprised by Iran

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India's Open Magazine: The West gets constantly surprised by Iran
  
• Effects of 1979 Islamic Revolution on the Mideast and the world
  
• Iran and India vs Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and China
  
• Massive terror attack on Iran's IRGC
  
• Coming soon: World View: The Conflict between China and Japan, by John J. Xenakis
  

****
**** India's Open Magazine: The West gets constantly surprised by Iran
****

The following articles appeared on Wednesday in India's Open Magazine:


World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy, by John J. Xenakis

Available on Amazon

13 February 2019

The West gets constantly surprised by Iran because of their universal
stupidity, says John J Xenakis

On the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, an American scholar
talks about its impact on world politics

by John J Xenakis

<QUOTE>"John J. Xenakis juggles multiple careers: that of a
software engineer, historian, journalist, analyst and author. The
American scholar, who has developed what he calls the
“generational theory” to forecast the future of countries and
people, is the author of World View: Iran’s struggle for
Supremacy. As Iran celebrates the 40th anniversary of the 1979
Islamic Revolution this month, Xenakis delves deep into the legacy
of its spearhead Ayatollah Khomeini and how the historical event
changed the course of world history. He argues that it is a pity
that most journalists and politicians don’t have even “the vaguest
clue of what's going on Iran”. He also talks about other countries
in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia which is fighting a
proxy war with Iran in many parts of the region. Edited excerpts
from an interview with Executive Editor Ullekh NP"<END QUOTE>

****
**** Effects of 1979 Islamic Revolution on the Mideast and the world
****

Looking back, how has the Islamic Revolution of 40 years ago
altered the history of the Middle East and the rest of the
world?

There were three events that occurred in 1979 that set the direction
of the Mideast. The Islamic Revolution changed Iran from a Western
ally to a Western enemy, and radicalized the Mideast. The Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan, which was an invasion of a Muslim nation by a
Christian nation, further radicalized the Mideast and Pakistan. And
the Salafist attack on Saudi Arabia's Grand Mosque was the first major
terrorist attack in recent times. It led to Osama bin Laden and his
band of jihadists to leave Saudi Arabia and go to Afghanistan to fight
the Russians. These events can be traced directly to the Iran-Iraq war
and to the 9/11 terror attack.

What are your thoughts on Ayatollah Khomeini's legacy?

Ruhollah Khomeini's greatest sin is that he corrupted Islam by
twisting it into a policy called Wilayat al-Faqih (Guardianship of the
Jurist) which turned himself into an "infallible" Supreme Leader who
could order the arrests, torture, rape, beatings, and executions of
political opponents with impunity. Furthermore, he devised a
constitution with absolutely no checks and balances, which makes Iran
a kleptocracy, unable to get anything done except with bribery and
extortion. Khomeini was truly evil. He has fouled Islam and destroyed
Iran.

Many famous intelligence officials and news correspondents who
have worked in Iran have opined that they had underestimated the
inherent strengths of that country to survive insurmountable
odds. What do you think?

Dictators always survive in a police state, where political opponents
can be arrested, tortured, raped, beaten, and executed at will with
impunity. What you call "inherent strength" is the ability to use
violence to control the opposition.

A lot of people talk about "regime change" in Iran, without having any
idea what that means. If all it means replacing one Supreme Leader by
another, it will make no difference at all. The problem is that the
constitution and entire government are a kleptocracy, where it's
impossible to survive without bribery, corruption and violence.

However, generational theory tells us that an important change is
coming. The fanatical hardliners in Iran are in the generations that
lived through and fought in the 1979 Revolution, and those people are
quickly disappearing. The younger generations, who grew up after the
1979 Revolution, have no such fanaticism. In fact, they're generally
pro-American, pro-Western, and have no particular interest in seeing
Israel pushed into the sea. These younger generations are increasingly
in power, and they will dramatically change Iran's politics. Some
opposition figures are even suggesting that the son of the deceased
Shah could come back and restore a secular government.

Do you think that Iran has been villainized over the past 40
years because it took on the might of the US and threw an American
stooge out of power? How justified are the West's sanctions on that
country?

Iran is a country that abducted American ambassadors, and declares
"death to America" and "death to Israel" every single day. They're
corrupt, violent terrorists, and they're spreading terror throughout
the Mideast in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq and Yemen. Of course,
they're going to be villanized, and they deserve it.

Just as Hindus in India feel an emotional link with Shia Muslims
in Iran, and tend to excuse Iran's sins, Jews and evangelical
Christians in America feel a close emotional link to Jews in
Israel, and tend to excuse Israel's sins

****
**** Iran and India vs Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and China
****

Isn’t it Saudi Arabia, a friend of the US, that is the
fountainhead of Islamic terrorism in the Middle East (we feel the
pressure in India as well because Islamism in India is also funded by
the Saudis)? Why do you insist it is Iran? Besides, Israel isn't a
saint after all and has earned the wrath of UNHCR on many occasions
for its treatment of Palestinian civilians. It is a country whose
economic mainstay is arms and its government has been accused of
terrorism by religious groups within. Your comments.

Saudi Arabia is "A fountainhead," not "THE fountainhead." In Yemen, SA
is in a never-ending proxy war with Iran, in Syria SA is supporting
many anti-Assad rebels. The Jamal Khashoggi incident has shocked
everyone, and has had the ironic effect of pushing SA closer to
Pakistan. Many people also blame SA for 9/11. SA itself has an
internal split between the Sauds and the Wahhabis. At any rate, Saudi
Arabia and Iran are headed for war.

Many in the US Congress do not consider SA to be a friend. Obama hated
SA, and SA hated Obama. SA and US have had a close relationship since
the 1930s based on the following core agreement: SA will provide oil
to the world, and the US will provide security to the Mideast. Trump's
"friendship" with SA is based on that core agreement. This core
agreement greatly benefits everyone, including India. There have been
many problems in the SA-US relationship over the decades, but this
core agreement has remained the most important factor.

And if I'm not mistaken, most of the funding for Islamism in India
comes not from the Saudis but from Pakistan's ISI. However, that may
be a distinction without a difference because Pakistan is a close ally
of SA and China, both of whom are enemies of India. India, on the
other hand, is a close ally of Iran, as illustrated by the Chabahar
seaport project. Hindus and Shia Muslims have been allies for
centuries, all the way back to the seminal Battle of Karbala in 680. I
discussed this in my book.

Nobody's a saint, especially in the Mideast. Israel is a democracy and
has an independent judiciary, which makes them unique in the Mideast.
Muslim Arabs are much safer living in Israel, and have more freedoms,
than in any other Mideast country. Just as Hindus in India feel a
close emotional link with Shia Muslims in Iran, and tend to excuse
Iran's sins, Jews and evangelical Christians in America feel a close
emotional link to Jews in Israel, and tend to excuse Israel's sins.

There's also anti-Jewish sentiment in the US -- read the current news
stories about Ilhan Abdullahi Omar, who is the Somali Muslim
congressional representative from Minneapolis, which has a large
Somali community.

Many in the US consider UNHCR to be highly biased, condemning actions
in Israel while ignoring massively greater human rights violations by
others.

Did the 1979 Revolution intensify the Shia-Sunni conflict and
how?

By changing from a secular government to a radical Shia government,
they radicalized the Wahhabi Sunni extremists and other jihadists.

What are the untold stories of the Islamic Revolution? Why did
Saddam Hussein spare Khomeini while the latter was in exile in Iraq?
How come he became a darling of the international media overnight in
France? Were there more to these developments than meets the
eye?

These are all political developments that were not nearly as important
as the three major events in 1979 that I listed above.

Iran is still a power that continues to surprise the West. Do
you think there are chances that it will become a nuclear power
soon?

Well, I was surprised myself when I did research for my book and
discovered that no analysts, journalists or politicians have even the
vaguest clue what's going on Iran, as judged by the fact that they say
one incredibly stupid thing after another every day. That's why they
keep getting surprised -- because of their universal stupidity.

Will it be a nuclear power soon? They're undoubtedly continuing some
nuclear development, and/or buying nuclear technology from North
Korea. Even under the Iran nuclear treaty, they're permitted to
develop nuclear weapons by 2025, and they're certainly planning to do
so.

How important is it to understand Iran in order to understand
political Islam?

I don't even know what this means, since no one wants to bother to
understand political Islam or Islam at any level. However, someone who
wants to understand Iran and Islam can start by reading my book, which
has the best and most accessible exposition of both that I've seen.

Who are your favourite historians who have written extensively
on Iran?

The best was Homa Katouzian. In my book, I showed how generational
changes led to the historical flow Russia/Britain-Iran border wars ->
Tobacco Revolt -> Constitutional Revolution -> White Revolution
protests -> Islamic Revolution. Most historians discussed these as
individual, almost unrelated events. Katouzian was the only one who
understood how one leads to the next.

Open Magazine (India)


****
**** Massive terror attack on Iran's IRGC
****

On the same day that the above article was published, there was a
massive terror attack in southeastern Iran, targeting a bus carrying
members of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Supreme
Leader's security forces that conduct the most vicious atrocities
against any peaceful protester or anyone who says something not
approved by the dictatorial government.

A suicide bomber driving a car laden with explosives targeted the bus,
causing a massive explosion. Official government figures put the
number of dead at 20, although other reports say that as many as 41
IRGC members were killed. Dozens more were injured. The attack took
place in Sistan-Baluchistan province, near the border with Pakistan.

The Sunni terrorist group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice), which says
it wants greater rights for the ethnic minority Baluchis, took credit
for the attack. This group was formed in 2012 as an offshoot of the
al-Qaeda linked Jundallah, which is in the Pakistan Taliban.

Both Jundullah (Soldiers of God) and Jaish-ul-Adl (Army of Justice)
have stated openly that they're committed to the extermination of all
Shia Muslims. Jundullah itself was an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi
(LeJ) which in 2013 issued the following statement:

<QUOTE>"Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this
impure sect and people, the Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every
city, every village, every nook and corner of
Pakistan."<END QUOTE>

In 2010, Iran captured and executed Jundullah's leader Abdulmalik
Rigi, and declared that the defeat of Jundullah. But Jundullah
reconstituted itself with new leadership, and stepped up the attacks
on Iran, claiming revenge for the execution of Rigi.

Jundullah and Jaish-ul-Adl are offshoots that have extended the
extermination plan from Pakistan across the border into Iran's
Sistan-Baluchistan province. On January 29, a bomb explored in the
provincial capital Zahedan, and three members of a bomb squad were
wounded when a second device blew up. There have been dozens of such
attacks in recent years, killing hundreds of people.

Two people were killed and about 40 wounded in the port city of
Chabahar early December. The Chabahar port project is an important
part of the strategic relationship between Iran and India, as I
mentioned in the Open Magazine article quoted above. For that reason,
it's possible that Jundullah and Jaish-ul-Adl attacks on
Sistan-Baluchistan province are also intended to be an attack on
Indian assets.

For Wednesday's attack, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif,
declared that the blame goes to the United States because of a Mideast
summit being held in Poland. Zarif tweeted:

<QUOTE>"Is it no coincidence that Iran is hit by terror on
the very day that #WarsawCircus begins? Especially when cohorts
of same terrorists cheer it from Warsaw streets & support it with
twitter bots? US seems to always make the same wrong choices, but
expect different results."<END QUOTE>

A Foreign Ministry spokesman added, "The self-sacrificing military and
intelligence children of the people of Iran will take revenge for the
blood of the martyrs of this incident."

I've been writing about Jundullah's terror attacks on Iran for almost
ten years, and even though the attacks are being conducted by a group
vowing to exterminate all Shia Muslims, Iranian officials always find
a way to make delusional statements blaming the attacks on the US.
Press TV (Iran) and Radio Farda and Guardian (London) and Reuters

Related Articles:

• India-Iran and Saudi-Pakistan alliances form and strengthen in Asia (13-Jan-2019)
  
  
• Iran and Pakistan attempt to erase 40 years of sectarian hostility (26-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Furious Iran blames Pakistan, US and Britain for Sunday's terrorist attacks (22-Oct-2009)
  

****
**** Coming soon: World View: The Conflict between China and Japan, by John J. Xenakis
****

A new book, World View: The Conflict between China and Japan,
by John J. Xenakis in the Generational Theory Series, will
be published soon.

The topics include:

• History of China - Korea - Japan relationships.
  
  
• Why China does NOT want war with the United States.
  
  
• However, why China DOES want a revenge war with Japan, even though
  it would also mean war with the United States.
  
  
• How China's society today is mimicking Japan's society of the
  1930s -- the same crimes, the same atrocities, the same barbarism, and
  the same preparations for war.
  
  
• History of 5,000 years of China's dynasties and their influence
  today.
  
  
• History of Confucius and Sun Tzu's Art of War, and their influence
  today.
  
  
• China's continuing preparations for war.

As the book is being completed, there's an active discussion
going on in the Generational Dynamics forum about it's contents,
as well as book excerpts and other World View stories.

If you'd like to follow the discussion, or even contribute
your own thoughts and comments, do any of the following:

• Read the thread "Generational Dynamics World View News," or
  subscribe to the thread, at
  http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168
  
  
  
• Subscribe to the RSS feed at: http://gdxforum.com/forum/feed.php
  
  
  
• Follow the twitter feed: @GenDyn

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Open Magazine, Ullekh NP,
Iran, Ruhollah Khomeini,
Wilayat al-Faqih, Guardianship of the Jurist,
Hindus, Jews, Evangelical Christians, Israel,
Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Jamal Khashoggi,
Afghanistan, Osama bin Laden, Soviet Russia,
Pakistan, China, Chabahar seaport, Homa Katouzian,
Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC, Mohammad Javad Zarif,
Sistan-Baluchistan, Abdulmalik Rigi,
Jundullah, Soldiers of God, Jaish-ul-Adl, Army of Justice,
China, Japan, Korea

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Tim Randal Walker]

John, in response to your comments regarding the many historical examples you have documented, your efforts are appreciated. Collecting extensive evidence for generational theory may seem a thankless task, but is valuable.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Peter Zeihan (zeihan.com) has written a couple books relevant to this 4T: The Accidental Superpower and The Absent Superpower. He describes his theories in YouTube videos.

A key point he makes is that the world is on the verge of what he calls the Disorder. This will lead to wars. In Absent he devotes a chapter each to The Twilight War, The (Next) Gulf War, and The Tanker War.

In the Twilight War the Russians invade the countries to their west to create a buffer against invasion.

The (Next) Gulf War is war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Resulting in a drastic reduction, if not complete shut down, of tanker shipments from the gulf, leading to....

The Tanker War. China and Japan will be on opposite sides, as each scrambles to secure supplies from the Gulf.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Peter Zeihan begins to describe the wars about 27 minutes into the video. With diagrams.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feU7HT0x_qU

[John J. Xenakis]

(02-14-2019, 12:39 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > John, in response to your comments regarding the many historical
> examples you have documented, your efforts are appreciated.
> Collecting extensive evidence for generational theory may seem a
> thankless task, but is valuable.

Thankless for sure! Thank you!

[Tim Randal Walker]

Interesting diagram showing imports vs. exports for different countries, about 5 minutes and 50 seconds into the video. Note the USA's position on the far right.

Then Zeihan describes the Shale Revolution.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BclcpfVn2rg

I'm not, however, as complacent as Zeihan. I can't discount the possibility that the United States might get dragged into a war.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 24-Feb-2019 Saudi's bin Salman sucks up to China and OKs Uighur genocide

As I've been saying for over a decade, China will be allied with
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in the coming Clash of Civilizations world
war, and the China-Saudi alliance took a big leap forward this past
week when Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) described
China's genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Uighurs "fighting
terrorism," in exchange for lucrative financial agreements between the
two countries.


China is Saudi Arabia's largest trading partner. Last week, the
national oil giant Saudi Aramco signed an agreement to form a
Saudi-Chinese joint venture, worth more than $10bn, to develop a
refining and petrochemical complex in China's northeastern Liaoning
province in the former Manchuria. Also, the Saudi Arabian General
Investment Authority also the signing of 35 non-binding memorandums of
understanding, worth $28bn, including deals related to energy, mining,
transportation and e-commerce.

In exchange, MBS made the following statement during his visit to
China, in reference to the Muslim Uighurs in in East Turkistan
(China's Xinjiang province):

Quote:> "We respect and support China's right to take counter-terrorism
> and de-extremism measures to safeguard national security. We stand
> ready to strengthen cooperation with China."

A spokesman for Britain's Muslim Council called the remarks
"disgusting" and a defense of "the use of concentration camps against
Uighur Muslims."

Saudi Arabia claims to be the defender of all Muslims worldwide,
and is the home of the two holiest cities in the Muslim faith,
Mecca and Medina. Every Muslim in the world is commanded to
make a Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca at least once in his lifetime.
This year, the Hajj will occur on August 9-14, but it's not known
whether Uighur Muslims will be welcome.

It's already true that Shia Muslims from Iran are not particularly
welcome, and Sunni Muslims from Qatar are not particularly welcome, so
it seems possible that last week's tacit approval of China's Uighur
genocide will extend not welcoming Sunni Muslim Uighurs to attend this
year's Hajj. We'll see.

China has been extremely effective in using threats, extortion and
bribery to keep Muslim countries from condemning the genocide.
Earlier this month, Turkey broke ranks with a harsh condemnation of
the East Turkistan concentration camps, where over a million ethnic
Uighurs are allegedly being subjected to beatings, torture, rape and
other atrocities before they are executed and sent to the new
crematoria. The Uighurs are ethnically Turkic, and speak a Turkic
language, and so Turkey a special reason for the condemnation, but
that special reason doesn't apply to the Arab Muslims, like the
Saudis.

One of the most surprising aspects of this situation are the dramatic
outcomes of the Jamal Khashoggi incident. Khashoggi was killed in
Istanbul, Turkey, in the Saudi embassy, in an extremely bizarre and
sickening murder, and MBS is widely believed to have ordered the
killing. This has isolated MBS from the rest of the world. Since
Pakistan was on the verge of financial disaster and was desperate,
Pakistan was able to leverage the Khashoggi incident to convince Saudi
Arabia to loan Pakistan $6 billion, in exchange for MBS recognition
from Pakistan. And now China has been able leverage the Khashoggi
incident and make the MBS, the defender of all Muslims, approve the
genocide of Uighur Muslims. It may not be correct to say that the
Khashoggi incident has CHANGED history, but it certainly seems to have
SPED UP history, by cementing the China - Pakistan - Saudi alliance.

On tv this morning, a news announced was shocked to learn that only
75% of Americans in a poll said that they had heard of the Jewish
Holocaust in the 1940s. I wonder what that percentage would be about
the similar Holocaust going on today of Muslim Uighurs?

In fact, there are actually three genocides going on in three
countries today, and almost nobody cares. Even though Sunni Muslims
are being exterminated in all three cases (China, Burma/Myanmar, and
Syria), there's no outrage being expressed by any of the 50
Muslim-majority countries, with the possible exception of Turkey.

For decades, Jews have criticized the West for not even speaking out
against the Holocaust against Jews while it was going on. And yet,
few if any Westerners are expressing outrage against the three
genocides of Sunni Muslims going on today.

Even if you, Dear Reader, say you hate Muslims and that they
should all be exterminate, that's exactly what many people said
about the Jews.

However, even that reasoning doesn't apply to the 50 Muslim majority
countries of the world. Except for Turkey, why aren't they speaking
out? Even Kazakhstan, whose Kazakh citizens are thrown into the same
concentration camps as the Uighurs when they cross the border into
China, are kowtowing to China, rather than risk losing financial perks
or a military action.

So for those of you who wondered about the Jewish Holocaust happened,
why it happened, and why it wasn't prevented or stopped, just
analyze what's happening today -- it's exactly the same.


--- Uighurs / Salman / Saudi crown prince defends China's right to
fight 'terrorism'
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/s...47149.html
(Al-Jazeera)


--- Salman / Uighurs / Saudi crown prince defends China’s use of
internment camps for Uighur Muslims
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/saudi-c...ims-141432
(Hurriyet, Turkey)

--- Uighurs call on MBS to condemn persecution of Muslim minority
during China visit
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uighu...hina-visit
(Middle East Eye)

--- Uighurs / Saudi’s bin Salman mum on China’s abuse of Uyghur
Muslims as he touts ties
https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/saudi...es-3475198
(Yeni Safak, Turkey)

--- Related:

--- 9-Feb-2019 Turkey condemns China's Uighur 'concentration camps,' then backs down
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...985#p43985


** 16-Nov-18 World View -- Fifteen countries challenge China's human rights in Xinjiang province
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181116



** 13-Jan-19 World View -- India-Iran and Saudi-Pakistan alliances form and strengthen in Asia
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190113




** 27-Jan-19 World View -- George Soros speech at Davos marks significant global shift against China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190127


--- 10-Feb-2019 China releases video of Uigher singer, claiming it proves that he's alive

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...995#p43995

[John J. Xenakis]

** 24-Feb-2019 Etherial Trump-Kim summit to take place at mid-week

President Donald Trump is preparing to fly to Hanoi, Vietnam, for
the summit on Wednesday and Thursday with North Korea's Kim Jong-un.

Kim is not flying. He's taking a train from North Korea's capital
city Pyongyang to China's capital city Beijing, to meet with China's
president Xi Jinping. Then he'll hop on the train again until it
comes to the Vietnam border where, ordering to a report I heard, he'll
have to travel in a motorcade because Vietnam can't or won't permit
the train to continue.

A year go, everyone was hopin' and prayin' that Kim would agree
to "denuclearize," but as I wrote repeatedly, that was never going
to happen. In fact, that train left the station (so to speak) months
ago. Today, North Korea has an arsenal of ballistic missiles, and
plenty to plutonium to make many more. The only thing he hasn't
been able to do is openly test them.

Kim wants Trump to agree to lift the harsh sanctions that were imposed
in the past. There would be a huge backlash in Washington if Trump
agreed to anything like that, so I'm assuming that he won't. Instead,
he keeps talking about how much he and Kim love each other (presumably
in a father-son relationship), and Trump brags about the fact that no
tests have been conducted for over a year.

The one thing that might be agreed to is the end of the Korean War.
The Korean war ended in 1953 in an armistice ceasefire, and North and
South Korea are theoretically still at war. The North has pushed for
an agreement to end the war in the past. Washington has resisted,
because it might imply that American troops in South Korea would have
to be withdrawn. So according to some reports, there might be an
agreement to end the Korea War, with the American troops remaining.

However, the question is whether Kim will renounce his intention to
send his million man army across the border to attack Seoul. The
North has repeatedly said that it wants the North and South to be
reunited under the North's control. If Kim renounced that intention
in return for agreement to end the war, it would add a great deal of
symbolic value.

So the expectations for the meeting are pretty low. At the end of
there week there may be a symbolic paper agreement to end the war in
some way, but I would expect that the sanctions will continue, and
North Korea will continue to develop nuclear weapons and missiles, but
not test them. He's already proven that his missiles can reach Japan,
and that may be enough for him anyway, for now.


--- White House vows to shed Obama-era policy of 'cowering' before
North Korea ahead of second Trump-Kim summit
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-h...kim-summit
(Fox News)

--- Don't stop believin' in a successful summit
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47327473
(BBC)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Feb-2019 Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif resigns in anger

Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif unexpectedly announced
his resignation on Monday, Feb 25. He gave no reason for the
resignation, but posted the following on Instagram (the only major
social media network not banned in Iran):

Quote: "Many thanks for the generosity of the dear and brave people of
Iran and its authorities over the past 67 months. I sincerely
apologize for the inability to continue the service and for all
the shortcomings during the service. Be happy and worthy."

Zarif has been highly visible for the past five years as he worked
closely with America's Secretary of State John Kerry to get
international agreement on the JCPOA, the international nuclear
agreement.

This was hailed as a massive diplomatic victory for both Zarif and
Kerry, and there was talk of giving them the Nobel Peace Prize. It
also meant the lifting of sanctions, giving Iran tens of billions of
dollars to spend as it wished.

However, Donald Trump came into office and withdrew America from
the JCPOA, reinstating some sanctions, making it illegal for any
entity doing business in the United States to do business with Iran.
Since almost every major international bank does business in the
United States, this shut down much of Iran's international trade.

So when Zarif apologized for "all the shortcomings" in his
resignation post, he may have been referring to effective collapse
of the JCPOA.

At last week's Munich Security Conference, he said that the US was
"driven by pathological obsession." Zarif spoke in a manner that was
undiplomatically furious, especially because the Europeans were unable
or unwilling to break the sanctions, despite giving lip service to a
desire to do so. A BBC reporter (Lyse Doucet) who has interviewed
Zarif many times over the years said that she had never seen him so
angry. So presumably that speech was related to Monday's resignation.

A pro-Iran analyst on the BBC today blamed Trump for the failure of
the JCPOA, saying that everything would have worked out fine if Trump
hadn't been elected president.

That's an interesting claim, but it's more likely that the JCPOA
would have been a disaster for Iran even if Hillary Clinton had
become president.

To understand this, we have to remember that Iran is in a generational
Awakening era, with a big political split between the generations of
hardline aging geezers who fought in the 1979 Revolution and the
younger generations of Iranian growing up after the 1979 civil war.
Starting in 1999, college students in Iran were holding
anti-government protests, and Iran's leadership ordered
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)
thugs to go out and beat, torture, rape, jail, and execute peaceful
protesters.

This slowed the protests down, but they continued. There were
huge protests in December 2017, a month before Trump took office.

In an article that I wrote at the time, I tracked the slogans as they
morphed. The original protests were about the economy and government
corruption:

• Bread, work, freedom
  
• The nation is destitute while the leader is acting like God
  
• Young people are unemployed, and mullahs have all the positions
  
• Execute the economically corrupt
  
• If you stop one case of embezzlement,
  our problem will be solved

The next day, they had morphed into general anti-government and
anti-regime protests:

• Seyed Ali [Khamenei] shame on you let go of our country
  
• Dignified Iranians, join your people
  
• We don’t want an Islamic Republic
  
• Dignified Iranians, support us, support us
  
• Death to the Dictator
  
• Death to Rouhani
  
• Don’t be afraid, we are all united
  
• Political prisoners should be freed
  
• Shame on you
  
• Death or freedom

Anti-war protests zeroed in on Iran's enormous expenditures on war
efforts for Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Yemen:

• Leave Syria, think about us
  
• Guns and tanks! The mullahs must be killed
  
• Death to Hezbollah
  
• Leave Syria alone, think about us instead
  
• Forget about Gaza and Lebanon; I’ll sacrifice my life for Iran
  
• Never mind Palestine, think about us

All of these protests were occurring BEFORE Trump took office, and
certainly before Trump withdrew from JCPOA.

With regard to the JCPOA, young people in Iran were particularly
furious at how the money from lifting the sanctions had been
squandered. Instead of spending it to help the average Iranian, it
was spent on corruption among the Shia clerics, corruption in the
IRGC, and in military misadventures throughout the region, in Yemen,
Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.

It's a rule of life that receiving a big pile of money can end up
being a curse, because you can use the money to do evil or to make
unsustainable commitments. We see this today in Venezuela, where a
huge gusher of money turned the country from one of the richest in the
world into the disaster you see today.

That's the path Iran was on before Trump reimposed the sanctions.
If anything, Trump did Iran a big favor.

When I heard of Zarif's resignation, and particularly the angry
bitterness of his Instagram post, the thing that popped into my mind
was the resignation of President Lyndon Johnson in 1968. There's a
great deal of similarity between the two. Both resignations occurred
during a generational Awakening era, when their policies were opposed
by the younger generations. Johnson's resignation followed the
massive and heartbreaking protests by teens and students in the 1967
Summer of Love.

Zarif has given no reason why he is resigning. One possibility is
that, like Lyndon Johnson, he was heartbroken that he'd given his life
to a cause that was massively opposed by the younger generations.
What was the point of doing it, if everyone you love hates it?

Does Zarif's resignation signal regime change? Probably not. If we
use the Lyndon Johnson resignation as an example, it signaled a change
of mood that led to "regime change," but the actual regime change
didn't occur for six years, until Richard Nixon was forced to resign.


--- Iran / Mohammad Javad Zarif / Zarif resigned
http://www.irna.ir/fa/News/83222670
(IRNA - Iran)
https://translate.google.com/translate?s...2F83222670
(Translation)

--- Mohammad Javad Zarif: Iran's foreign minister announces resignation
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-47362962
(BBC)

--- Why Iran's foreign minister Javad Zarif may have resigned
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opini...e-resigned
(Washington Examiner)

--- Related:

** 2-Jan-18 World View -- Escalating violence in Iran protests brings calls for Iran-Israel friendship
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e180102


** 30-Dec-17 World View -- Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e171230


** Boomers commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Summer of Love.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...m#e070612b

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Feb-2019 Indian airstrikes on Pakistani side in Kashmir

Reports that Indian warplanes are striking targets on the Pakistani
side of the line of control (LoC) in Kashmir. Might be serious.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Feb-2019 Update: Indian airstrikes on Pakistani side in Kashmir

https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan...1149047465

Pakistan says Indian aircraft crossed Kashmir frontier

Pakistan says Indian aircraft 'released a payload' before 'escaping';
no casualties

Published: February 26, 2019 06:40 Reuters

Islamabad: Pakistan’s military said on Wednesday Indian military
aircraft crossed the line of control frontier in the disputed Kashmir
region and “released a payload” after Pakistan scrambled its own jets,
but there was no casualties or damage.

“Indian aircrafts intruded from Muzafarabad sector,” Pakistani
military spokesman Major General Asif Ghafoor said on Twitter early on
Wednesday, referring to an area in the Pakistan-administered part of
Kashmir.

He said “facing timely and effective response from Pakistan Air
Force”, the Indian aircraft “released payload in haste while escaping
which fell near Balakot. No casualties or damage.”

Note: This is a Reuters story published in Gulf News, which is a
pro-Pakistan Arab media source. -- JJX

[John J. Xenakis]

** 26-Feb-2019 Pakistan-India governments in confusion over airstrikes

For the time being, Kashmir is the most dangerous place in
the world, and the most likely to trigger a larger war.

As we reported last night, Indian warplanes bombed tarkets in
Pakistan, across the line of control (LoC) in Kashmir. India says
that it bombed a JeM training camp on the Pakistani side, killing many
terrorists and commanders.

Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) is the Pakistani terrorist group that claimed
credit for the worst terror attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir
in decades, occurring on February 14. Over 40 Indian
security forces were killed.

On Tuesday, India responded by conducting the first warplane
airstrikes on Pakistani soil since the massive 1971 war between
India and Pakistan.

India says that dozens of JeM militants were killed. Pakistan says
that the attacks are "reckless and fictitious," and that nobody was
killed, and that India had to drop its bombs on open fields and flee,
in order to avoid being shot down by Pakistani warplanes. Pakistan
says that if hundreds of people had been killed, then there would be
lots of funerals, but there aren't any.

Pakistan says that it will retaliate at a place and time of
its choosing.

India says that if there are more terror attacks, then it will strike
on Pakistani soil again.


--- India 'air strikes' send Pakistan tensions surging
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ind...ar-BBU5wJg
(AFP)


--- Pakistan / The Latest: Khan says India's claim on bombing
'fictitious'
https://www.koin.com/news/the-latest-ind...1810962341
(AP)

--- India-Pakistan tensions escalate with airstrikes across Kashmir border
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/f...shmir-bomb
(Guardian, London)

--- Pakistan defense analyst - Analysis of Indian airstrike in Kashmir
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/ispr-pres...134/page-2
(Pakistan Defense Ministry)


--- Related:

*** 19-Feb-2019 India-Pakistan tensions again escalate after Kashmir gunfight
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...125#p44125

*** 14-Feb-2019 Biggest terror attack in years in India-controlled Kashmir
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...044#p44044

[John J. Xenakis]

** 27-Feb-2019 India-Pakistan conflict escalates with warplane clash

For the first time since 1971, Pakistani and Indian warplanes have
clashed, resulting in at least one plane being shot down. Pakistan’s
Civil Aviation Authority says it has shut its airspace across the
country to all commercial flights, resulting in numerous flight
cancelations and inconveniencing passenges.


Kashmir continues to be the most dangerous place in the world today,
and the place where the probability of tit-for-tat escalation leading
to a major war is highest, at the current point in time.

• Border wall: Indian Border Security Force soldiers patrol
  along the fenced border with Pakistan in the Ranbir Singh Pura sector
  near Jammu on Tuesday. (Mukesh Gupta/Reuters)

As we've been reporting for weeks, the current round of tit-for-tat
attacks began on February 14, when the Pakistan-based terrorist group
Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) claimed credit for the worst terror attack in
Indian-controlled Kashmir in decades, occurring on February 14. Over
40 Indian security forces were killed when an explosive-laden vehicle
(VBIED) crashed into bus in a convoy of Indian forces and exploded.
This was the worst terrorist attack in Kashmir in years.

Then on Tuesday (26-Feb), Indian warplanes struck across the Line of
Control (LoC) into the Pakistan-controlled region of Kashmir. This
was the first Indian warplane strike inside Pakistan since the massive
1971 India-Pakistan war.

There's still some confusion about what was actually struck, with
India claiming that hundreds of JeM militants were killed in their
training camp, while Pakistan says there were no casualties, and that
the attack was "reckless and fictitious." Pakistan vowed to retaliate
at a place and time of its choosing.

On Wednesday, there was an actual clash between Indian and Pakistani
warplanes, for the first time since 1971. Both sides claimed to have
shot down enemy warplanes, but the only thing that's been confirmed is
that an Indian warplane was shot down, and the pilot is in custody in
Pakistan.

However, the details of who was shot down, though important, are not
nearly as important as the fact that the situation appears to be
escalating, almost on a daily basis.

According to a retired Indian diplomat Lalit Mansingh, India’s policy
of strategic restraint “is no longer.” Pakistan continues to say that
it will retaliate.

This is a good time to remind readers of the Marco Polo Bridge
incident that started World War II in 1937. The Marco Polo Bridge is
about 15 km south of Beijing in China, and was so named because Marco
Polo praised the bridge in the 13th century.

• A small group of Japanese soldiers, stationed near the bridge, took
  a roll call and found one soldier missing.
  
  
• The Japanese accused Chinese soldiers, also stationed near the
  bridge in the city of Wanping, of abducting the Japanese soldier. A
  brief clash was won by the Japanese.
  
  
• The two sides negotiated a settlement, but both sides brought in
  reinforcements.
  
  
• Within a month there was full-scale war, leading to the Japanese
  "Rape of Nanking" shortly thereafter.

And, of course, we always have to mention that the Japanese soldier
missed roll call because he went into the woods to pee, and lost his
way back.

So it's not so wrong to say that World War II was triggered because
someone unexpectedly had to pee. And it's not so far-fetched to
wonder if the situation in Kashmir will lead to World War III.



--- India, Pakistan down each other's jets as Kashmir conflict heats
up
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-india-...QG0IQ?il=0
(Reuters)

--- Kashmir / Fears rise amid India-Pakistan escalation
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-47383889
(BBC)

--- The Latest: Germany urges dialogue between India, Pakistan
https://www.apnews.com/726be65d13bb4c058cec1a4d9e2fa043
(AP)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 27-Feb-2019 Nationalism and xenophobia rising rapidly in India and Pakistan

According to the BBC, Indian TV channels have abandoned attempts at
partiality, and are calling the Pakistanis "dastardly," and worse. At
the same time, there are growing anti-India protests in Pakistan, and
Pakistan has even banned showing any moviews containing Indian
content.

• People burn portraits of Indian Prime Minister Narendra
  Modi during an anti-Indian protest in Lahore, Pakistan, 27
  February 2019.

There is a lot of international pressure on both sides to tamp down
the threats, with Britain, China, the US, and many other countries
calling on both sides to show restraint.

This could well result in some sort of negotiated settlement. But
recall that in the Marco Polo Bridge incident that I summarized above,
the negotiated peace broke down quickly, and there was full scale war
within a few weeks.

One more thing: There are three major separatist terror groups in
Kashmir: Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) is a relatively new indigenous
jihadist group, and is responsible for last week's massive terror
incident. Hizbul Mujahedeen (HM) is an indigenous, home-grown
jihadist group that became considerably more violent after the July 8
2016 death of HM leader Burhan Wani in a gunfight with the Indian
army. Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) is a Pakistan-based terrorist group that
was formed in the 1990s by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI) agency to fight India in the disputed regions of Kashmir and
Jammu.

If any one of these separatist groups launches a new terror attack in
the current highly nationalistic time, that could be the trigger that
causes India to launch a military action or even declare war.

A war in Kashmir has been building since the Partition War ended
in 1949. Four generations later, the time is coming.

--- Pakistan Bans Indian Films as Asian Neighbors Talk of War
https://variety.com/2019/film/asia/pakis...203150699/
(Variety)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 28-Feb-2019 Report: Trump blindsided Kim Jong-un at summit

According to a report on the Fox Business Network this morning,
Donald Trump blindsided Kim Jong-un by revealing intelligence
that America knows a lot more about North Korea's nuclear
and missile development sites than Kim had previously revealed.

According to the report, Kim had hoped to bluff his way through a
commitment to close the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center in
exchange for an immediate end to all sanctions.

Kim Jong-un appears to be replaying the same fraudulent script that
his father Kim Jong-il followed in 2008. At that time, the North
demolished a 60-foot-tall cooling tower to prove that it was ending
its nuclear development programs. In reaction, the Bush
administration agreed to remove all sanctions. As soon as they were
removed, North Korea immediately and openly resumed its nuclear and
ballistic missile development. They had completely defrauded the
United States and the world.

So Trump undoubtedly reminded Kim of Bush's experience, and gave
that as a reason why immediate lifting of sanctions was impossible.

But the report says that Trump went much further by calling
on John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, who were present at the meeting
and had thoroughly prepared Trump for the meeting, to reveal
intelligence that America knew a lot more about Kim's nuclear
and ballistic missile weapons programs than the North believed.

Trump was able to say that Kim had to do more than promise to
denuclearize. He would have to provide a step-by-step plan
for how it would be accomplished. This would also include
a step-by-step plan for how sanctions would be lifted simultaneously.

Kim did not want to provide a step-by-step plan to denuclearize. He
simply wanted all sanctions lifted, with a promise to denuclearize, as
his father did. So Trump canceled the planned lunch and joint news
conference and walked away.

Trump was also sending a message to China that he's prepared to walk
away from the China trade negotiations.

Left on the table was the proposal to sign a treaty with South Korea
and China to officially end the 1950s Korean War, which ended with an
armistace/ceasefire.


--- Trump cuts short North Korea summit after dispute over sanctions:
'Sometimes you have to walk'
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-w...-to-summit
(Fox News)

--- Related:

** 5-Nov-18 World View -- US and South Korea resume some military marine drills, despite North's objections
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181105



********** UPDATE:

The following article contains a little more information on how the
Trump team blindsided the Kim team:

--- Trump-Kim summit was cut short after North Korea demanded an end to sanctions
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/white-ho...edule.html
(CNBC)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 1-Mar-2019 Pakistan returns captured pilot to India, de-escalating tensions

• Indian Air Force pilot Abhinandan Varthaman in picture taken
  while in Pakistani custody

In the last couple of hours, Pakistan has returned the captured Indian
Air Force pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman to India.
Pakistan's president Imran Kahn described it as a "gesture of peace,"
and it does seem to have de-escalated tensions for the time being.

India's narrative seems to be falling apart in several ways. India
claimed that it had killed hundreds of terrorists in a bombing of a
terrorist training camp run by Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), which had taken
responsibility for a massive terrorist attack that killed over 40
Indian soldiers, but there have been no bodies and no funerals. India
claimed that it had shot down a Pakistani warplane, but apparently it
hasn't.

Initially, when Pakistan shot down the Indian warplane and captured
the pilot, India's population were united behind Narendra Modi, but in
the days since then, the political opposition have turned against
Modi, and everyone is just relieved to have Varthaman back, whom they
regard as a hero.

--- Abhinandan Varthaman / Pakistan hands over captured fighter pilot
to India, de-escalating war tension
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nati...story.html
(AP)