Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 3-Mar-2019 Canada's planned extradition of Huawei exec raises tensions

Canada announced on Friday that it will go ahead with hearings on the
extradition of Huawei exec Meng Wanzhou to the United States, based on
a series of harsh indictments that the US Dept. of Justice laid out in
January. The charges went far beyond theft of intellectual property
when a multi-year investigation revealed massive international bank
fraud by Huawei in order to violate US sanctions against Iran. As CFO
of Huawei, Meng is charged with masterminding this bank fraud.

• Meng Wanzhou with her lawyer

Canada's Dept. of Justice explained the decision: "Canada is a country
governed by the rule of law. The decision on whether to issue an
Authority to Proceed was made by Department of Justice ... officials
who are part of a non-partisan public service."

However, China's Foreign Ministry issued a furious response:

Quote:> "The Chinese side deplores and firmly opposes the Canadian side's
> obstinately moving forward the so-called judicial process of
> extradition against Ms. Meng Wanzhou and has lodged stern
> representations.

> China's position on the case of Meng Wanzhou is clear-cut and
> firm. The US and Canada have abused their bilateral extradition
> agreement and arbitrarily taken compulsory measures on a Chinese
> citizen, which constitutes a serious violation of the legal rights
> and interests of the Chinese citizen. This is a severe political
> incident. We once again urge the US side to immediately withdraw
> the arrest warrant and extradition request for Ms. Meng Wanzhou
> and urge the Canadian side to immediately release Ms. Meng Wanzhou
> and ensure that she returns to China safe and sound."

China's use of the phrase "legal rights" has to be interpreted. China
is contemptuous of international law, as illustrated by its illegal
activities in Xinjiang Province, where it is conducting genocide and
ethnic cleansing of Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs, and its illegal
activities in the South China Sea, where it is pursuing a massive
military buildup in violation of a United Nations court decision
declaring China's activities to be illegal.

So China's view is that international law does not apply to China, and
of course neither do Canadian or American law. The only law that
applies to China is Chinese law. And in this case, the relevant
Chinese law is the 2017 National Intelligence Law which, among other
things, requires Huawei and other companies to cooperate with the
military in gathering intelligence, and also promises to proect anyone
who does so. Article 7 of the law says:

Quote:> "All organizations and citizens shall, in accordance with the law,
> support, cooperate with, and collaborate in national intelligence
> work, and guard the secrecy of national intelligence work they are
> aware of. The state will protect individuals and organizations
> that support, cooperate with, and collaborate in national
> intelligence work."

So when China refers to "legal rights," it means according to Chinese
law. Since Meng's crimes -- stealing intellectual property and
international bank fraud -- were made in collaboration with China's
military, they're perfectly legal in Chinese law. Furthermore, the
same law requires China's military to "protect" Meng for cooperating
with the military.

China has already jailed two Canadian citizens in retaliation, and
they may take some other steps to "protect" Meng. What the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) officials, who are pursuing some of the
stupidest policies in the history of the world, do not understand is
that by arresting Canadian citizens in retaliation, they're making it
impossible for Canada to release Meng under any circumstances, since
any such act would be seen as giving in to Chinese extortion.

Canada will now proceed to the extradition hearing. Apparently, the
court proceedings could go on for several months, especially if Meng
appeals, and so this situation is far from over.

It's believed that Canada will almost certainly grant the extradition
request. Whenever that happens, China may then decide to retaliate
against the United States, in order to "protect" Meng.

Politically, this issue is being tied in with Huawei's international
public relations campaign to convince anyone who will listen that
Huawei has not installed "backdoors" into its devices to allow China's
military to spy on them and control them.

As I've said in the past, I've spent a part of my career as a senior
software engineer developing chip-level operating system software for
embedded systems, so I know exactly how any chip or any electronic
device can be turned into a tool for espionage. Furthermore, I can
tell you that not only is it doable, it's not even particularly
difficult for someone with the right skills.

This "backdoor" could not be detected by tests, because the chip would
work normally until a backdoor is activated by receiving, say, a
secret 1024-bit code. Then it will execute commands sent to it by
Chinese engineers. Thus, the Chinese are then in control of any
devices with Huawei chips, and it cannot be detected until it's too
late.

The National Intelligence Law, quoted above, requires Huawei to
cooperate with the military. Since nobody has gone to jail for
violating this law, we have to assume, since installing backdoors is
easy and undetectable, that they have in fact been installed. Based
on my experience in developing embedded software, and on my extensive
research on China, I am 100% certain of this.



--- Sources:

--- Canada allows extradition hearings against Huawei executive Meng
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics...tive-meng/
(Globe and Mail, Canada, 1-Mar-2019)

--- Huawei / Meng Wanzhou / Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang's Remarks
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_66...2402.shtml
(China, Foreign Ministry, 1-Mar)

--- Wanzhou extradition a ‘serious political incident’, China tells Canada
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac...hina-tells
(South China Morning Post, China)


--- Sorry Beijing, the SNC-Lavalin affair is not your ace card in the Meng case
https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/sorr...meng-case/
(Macleans, Canada)

--- China calls ‘bunk’ on Huawei threat as Canada’s decision on Meng Wanzhou looms
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac...ng-wanzhou
(South China Morning Post, China)

--- Related:

** 16-Feb-2019 Canada's arrest of Huawei's Meng Wanzhou requires military response from China
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...077#p44077


** 8-Dec-18 World View -- Arrest of Meng Wanzhou of China's Huawei has increasingly serious implications
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181208


** 19-Feb-2019 Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei makes laughable claims about not spying
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...130#p44130

** 12-Jan-19 World View -- China's economy destabilizes as Huawei introduces cheap smartphone
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190112


** 12-Dec-18 World View -- China jails Canadian journalist Michael Kovrig in apparent retaliation for Canada arrest of Meng Wanzhou
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181212


** 8-Dec-18 World View -- Arrest of Meng Wanzhou of China's Huawei has increasingly serious implications
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181208

[John J. Xenakis]

** 3-March-2019 The Macroeconomic charts that dare not be shown

Following up on a discussion in the Financial Topics thread:

If you watch CNBC or Bloomberg TV, then you've seen thousands of
charts, graphing all kinds of obscure stuff. But they never show a
historical chart of price/earings ratios, which is what stock
valuations are all about. They talk about stock valuations
constantly, but amazingly, a historical stock valuation (P/E ratio)
chart is forbidden, a chart that dare not be shown.

I haven't updated the following chart since 2015, but it shows the
situation:



The blue line shows the historic average, around 13.9. The P/E ratio
has been above the historic average, sometimes way above, since the
1990s. By the Law of Mean Reversion, it will have to fall an
equivalent amount below the historic average to maintain the long-term
average. It fell to the 5-6 range three times in the last century, in
1917, in 1949, and in 1980. That's going to happen again with
absolute certainty, and that means that the Dow Jones Industrial
Average will fall below 3000, from its current level of 26000.

This would have happened starting with the financial crisis in 2008,
if it hadn't been for something that I certainly didn't anticipate.
The Federal Reserve joined with other central banks around the world,
including the UK, the EU and China, to flood the banking system with
printed money by means of quantitative easing and near-zero or even
negative interest rates of government bonds. This tsunami of printed
money has been made available to banks, hedge funds, and high-end
investors, though rarely to ordinary people. It's permitted high-end
investors to sell stocks back and forth between each other, creating a
Ponzi scheme that's been artificially boosting stock prices. Stock
prices now are far into bubble territory, and bear no relation to the
actual value of the underlying business, as they used to do before the
1990s bubble.

The current value of the S&P 500 Price Earnings ratio, as of Friday,
March 1, is 20.77, far above the historical average of 13.9.
http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html

The second chart that dare not be shown is the Velocity of Money.
Long-time readers will recall that I first started writing about
inflation in 2003. Almost everyone was predicting inflation or even
hyperinflation. I said that inflation was impossible because we were
entering a period of deflation, like the 1930s.

I got into one argument after another with people, especially in this
forum. This was particularly true after quantitative easing began in
2009. People would say that all this money is being printed, so there
would have to be inflation.

That's wrong. Inflation depends on two factors -- the amount of money
in the economy and the velocity of money. If the Fed prints money and
it sits in a bank, then it won't contribute to inflation. In order to
be inflationary, it has to be used to purchase things or to hire
people and pay them salaries. Velocity of money represents how much
money is actually being used, rather than just sitting in bank
accounts.

The following chart hasn't been updated since 2017, but it shows the
situation:



The velocity of money has been falling almost steadily since the late
1990s, and has come to almost its lowest point in history. If you
want to play around with this chart on the St. Louis Fed web site,
then use this URL:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?categ..._id=366117

You'll see that the velocity of money began to level off in Q3 2017.
This possibly reflects a greater public willingness to spend money as
a result of the Trump tax cut. However, there is some data that the
public spending rate has slowed in December, and so the Velocity of
Money may be starting to fall again.


Both of these charts are economics 1.01, and yet of all the thousands
of different charts that are shown every day, these are never shown,
because they disprove the common narrative. What I don't know is how
many of the "experts" know that what they're saying is crap, versus
how many of them actually believe that the crap they're saying is
true.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 4-Mar-2019 Tesla's SpaceX Dragon spacecraft docks with International Space Station

The Dragon spacecraft, developed by Tesla's SpaceX, docked
autonomously with the International Space Station. Believe it
or not, there was no crew on Dragon, except for a mechanized
dummy called Ripley.

NASA retired the space shuttle program in 2011, and since then America
has had no way to send astronauts to the ISS, and had to pay Russia to
do it for Nasa. So the Dragon is the first American spacecraft since
2011 able to carry passengers to and from the ISS, once all the
testing is completed.

What I'd like to focus on is the choice of the name "Dragon"
for the spacecraft. Elon Musk said it was named after
Puff the Magic Dragon:

Quote:> Was originally called Puff the Magic Dragon, as people said I was
> high if though it could work, so I named it after their insult. —
> Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 17, 2018
> https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1008...wsrc%5Etfw

However, whether intentional or not, the choice of the name
"Dragon" could be an attempt to show up China, to say
that "we're far ahead of you."

The Dragon is an integral part of Chinese history and Chinese
chauvinism. In November, 2017, China's president Xi Jinping explained
to Donald Trump, how a "Chinese person" should be defined: a Chinese
person, according to Xi, is someone who is a "descendant of the dragon
with black hair and yellow skin."

The phrase is part of a hit song in China in the 1980s:

Quote:> Descendants of the Dragon
>
> Music and Lyrics by Hou Dejian
>
> In the Far East there is a river,
> its name is the Yangtze River
> In the Far East there is a river,
> its name is the Yellow River
>
> Although I’ve never seen the beauty of the Yangtze,
> in my dreams I miraculously travel the Yangtze’s waters
> Although I’ve never heard the strength of the Yellow River,
> the rushing and surging waters are in my dreams
>
> In the Ancient East there is a dragon,
> her name is China
> In the Ancient East there is a people,
> they are all the heirs of the dragon
>
> I grew up under the claw of the dragon,
> after I grew up I became an heir of the dragon
> Black eyes, black hair, yellow skin,
> forever and ever an heir of the dragon
>
> One hundred years ago on a tranquil night,
> in the deep of the night before enormous changes
> Gun and cannon fire destroyed the tranquil night,
> surrounded on all sides by the appeasers’ swords
>
> How many years have gone by with the gunshots still ringing out,
> how many years followed by how many years
> Mighty dragon, mighty dragon open your eyes,
> forever and ever open your eyes

This became a popular song in China in the 1980s, almost 100 years
after the Sino-Japanese war of 1894-95, in which China was deeply
humiliated, and is looking for revenge today.

So, whether he intended to or not, Elon Musk is using the spacecraft
name Dragon to tell the Chinese "We're a better dragon than you are."

---- Sources:

--- Astronauts Welcome SpaceX's Crew Dragon to Space Station (Ripley and Earth, Too!)
https://www.space.com/astronauts-welcome...ation.html
(Space.com)


--- SpaceX’s Crew Dragon flawlessly docks with space station in spectacular orbital debut
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-crew-dr...n-arrival/
(Teslarati)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 4-Mar-2010 High drama: Juan Guaidó returns to Caracas, Venezuela

If you can get to a tv showing the BBC World News, the would-be
president Juan Guaidó has just arrived in Caracas, amidst huge
crowds, from a visit to Colombia.

It's high drama. Guaidó is returning in defiance of Nicolás Maduro,
who had forbidden Guaidó from leaving the country. Thus, Guaidó could
now be arrested.

What will Maduro do? Enquiring minds want to know.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 5-Mar-2019 Possible scenarios for WW III

Navigator Wrote:> This is a rough response ...

Burner Prime Wrote:> I don't dispute anything you wrote ...

I've taken your conversation, added some other stuff, to create a
chapter in my book on possible scenarios for WW III. Note, Navigator,
that I included a link to your blog -- I can remove that if you want.
The following are excerpts.

I may leave these as is, or rewrite these excerpts as a narrative.
Let me know your thoughts.


When thousands of Chinese fled through Hong Kong to Formosa in 1949,
they were in the Hokkein (Hakka) ethnic group. I wanted to know
how the Hakka people in Taiwan would react to a Chinese invasion.
A man living in Taiwan with a Hakka wife wrote the following
to me:

Quote:> "My wife loves China and seems to be completely blind
> to thier evil. She thinks if they take over, Taiwan could spend
> less on military and would prosper economically. I dont know
> anyone else in Taiwan that holds that opinion, me included.

> The other data point is that Tsai Ing-wen is Hakda and she is very
> against reunification. And she is doing something about it to
> include more weapons and changing military strategy to one of
> fortifying beach head landing sights of which Taiwan has few and
> resistance by guerrilla warfare based in the mountains if the
> beach heads are breached. So I think that may be more indicative
> of the Hakka attitude.

> As I'm sure you know, Taiwan as a whole does not consider itself
> to be a part of China anymore than Chicago is a part of China.
> And that attitude is getting stronger with time. They will not
> willing reunify.

> I think if China wants Taiwan they will have to kill ever last
> Taiwanese to take it. And I am fairly certain Taiwan is a nuclear
> armed country based on facilities I have seen while working for
> thier airforce. A war with China would not be quick and easy. It
> would be long and costly and frankly I dont think China currently
> has the ability to win."

...



For those reasons, many people believe that America would win a war
with China. Of course China would launch thousands of nuclear
missiles targeting American aircraft carriers, bases and cities, but
in the end there would be a ground war that China would lose.

In the Generational Dynamics forum, "Burner Prime" wrote:

Quote:> "Despite the loss of life and treasure, the US has
> been honing her fighting skills since Gulf War I. Prior to that
> there were a lot of shortcomings that were only uncovered by field
> operations and actual combat. Now our armor, weapons, tactics and
> electronic coordination, drone use, etc. is superior to any
> adversary. There are major problems with our Navy but those issues
> are known and being addressed."

However, "Navigator," a retired American Army Colonel 30 years
experience as an Army Officer, and with and my secondary career as a
military simulation creator/publisher, and blogs at
http://www.comingstorms.com, posted a response:

Quote:> "While our individual Soldiers are brave and
> competent, we will be in big trouble in a real war. We are only
> experienced at fighting counter insurgency, and we did a pretty
> bad job at that. Our Army is very over-reliant on electronics, and
> the Chinese will know how to exploit this. Our military is
> infantry deficient, and over reliant on AirForce ground
> support. Support the Army probably won't have, as the F35 is such
> a lemon, we won't have Air Superiority over the battlefield for
> the first time since 1942. Our force on force tactics have not
> changed much since WW2, and are very "broad front" centric. And
> the Navy is not addressing the disaster of the LCS's and
> over-reliance on extremely vulnerable CV
> battlegroups."

Burner Prime answered:

Quote:> "I don't dispute anything you wrote. I have watched
> many hours of Afghanistan combat footage and the default is "call
> in air strike", where a squad of US infantry can easily get pinned
> down by 2-3 well-hidden shooters. I would mention that despite
> that, China has zero combat experience and as shown throughout
> history, experienced troops and commanders nearly always beat
> inexperienced counterparts. You should also note that every
> deficiency you mentioned has been exposed by actual combat
> operations. China likely has as many or more deficiencies that no
> one, not even their own leaders know about. They won't show up
> until tested in battle. For example maybe their SAM systems
> underperform against the F-35 stealthy lemon. Aside from that a
> world war would not be fought the way US forces have in the Gulf -
> as a counter insurgency. It would be all-out brutal maximized
> carnage without the care to protect life as there is now. Soldiers
> will be expected to engage much more aggressively and the extreme
> care to protect civilians would vanish. I think John has brought
> up this point many times. Battles are fought differently depending
> on the era.

> Actually I would dispute one point: "We are only experienced at
> fighting counter insurgency." I don't believe this is
> correct. Gulf War I was no counter-insurgency. Major head-to-head
> tank battles took place without the benefit of air support. The US
> commanders, crews and equipment performed brilliantly. That is
> only one example. It's true Iraq had old Soviet era tanks and used
> outdated tactics, but they had recent experience fighting the
> Iranians. This did not help them. Since then our armor and
> equipment reliability has improved, and learned lessons
> applied."

Navigator replied:

Quote:> "The Gulf War was completely one sided because the
> Iraqi forces were below incompetent. I cannot stress this too
> strongly. There has not been a force on force conventional
> conflict where both sides were competent since 1973 Yom Kippur
> war.

> Our forces learned nothing from the Iraq war regarding
> conventional warfare, because it was so completely one-sided. Our
> tanks are from 1982, and our tactics/operational execution is a
> high tech version of 1944.

> I believe the Chinese will have the same kind of success initially
> that they had when they entered the Korean War in late 1950. They
> will overwhelm whatever we send, though they will suffer high
> casualties."

The preparedness of America's military is widely debated today,
particularly after the government budget sequestration in the early
2010s decade. The above exchange gives a flavor of the debate.

**** China's military strategy

Navigator also provided his thoughts on the details of how a war with
China would proceed:

Quote:> "I believe that ground wise the Chinese have 3
> directions they will attempt to go initially.

> 1 - Cross over to Taiwan. They will need to eliminate USN ability
> to intervene, so they will tac nuke the USN carrier groups at sea,
> and possibly those at Pacific ports. However, they do not have the
> ability to sea lift their entire Army, so only a portion of it
> will go this route.

> 2 - Move through North Korea into South Korea, so as to threaten,
> if not attempt to invade Japan. Their Army would try to time
> things so as to be through South Korea by the time the sea lift
> capability used in invading Taiwan would again be available, this
> time for invading Japan.

> 3 - Through Vietnam to get towards Thailand, Malaysia, and
> Indonesia. The idea here would be to punish the Vietnamese, and to
> be able to support/elevate Chinese minorities in SE Asia.

> The Chinese will not be able to contain their "offensive spirit"
> and, I believe, they will also engage India. This will happen both
> in SE Asia (Thailand/Burma) and across the Himalayas, though
> across the mountains is nearly impossible logistically.

> In response, the American ground forces will attempt to deploy to
> Taiwan and South Korea. We would first send the Marines, and then
> the Army. 2 Divisions of Marines and maybe 4-6 Army
> Divisions. These forces are woefully inadequate to deal with the
> overwhelming masses the Chinese will employ, and they will
> probably suffer the same fate as "Task Force Smith" from the early
> days of the Korean War.

> South Korea will fall. I think there is about a 70% chance that
> Taiwan would too. Attacking Taiwan, and dissipating their strength
> into SE Asia would give the US the time to mobilize somewhat and
> do what it could to assist Japan.

> Secondary Chinese thrusts could be from Taiwan towards the
> Philippines, or more likely, from Malaysia into Indonesia.

> The Philippines would be a good staging area for Americans looking
> to get into China, as would Japan.

> Tactically, the war will be much more like WW1, where defensive
> weapons and tactics are ascendant, than WW2. Meaning that once
> forces become majorly engaged, tactically it becomes a stalemate
> for quite a while.

> Invading China would eventually be attempted, probably at the
> northern peninsulas of either Liaoyang (think Port Arthur) or
> Shandong (think German Tsing-tao) and South at Hainan island
> followed by the peninsula just north of that island.

> However, moving into the heart of China would be beyond
> problematic. Much better to go for a combination of starving China
> and creating internal divisions."

That's how the war might proceed on the ground. Here are the issues
for the war on the sea and in the air:

Quote:> "All wars are decided primarily on land. Even in the
> Pacific in WW2. The Naval War there might have been dominant, but
> the navies either allowed (or failed to interdict) land force
> projection. (Japanese in Dutch East Indies, SE Asia and
> Philippines; US in island hopping, New Guinea, Philippines).

> That said, I am actually glad the Chinese are wasting such vast
> resources on building a Navy. I think the strategy is greatly
> misguided and does not play to their primary strengths. I think
> they following the path of the German Kaiser in his pre-World War
> One ideas of becoming a power with global force projection
> capability. The Imperial German fleet, while impressive, and
> certainly highly competent, was a waste of their military
> resources.

> Most of the money we are now spending on our Navy (not unlike much
> of it spent for the Army and Air Force) is being wasted on weapon
> systems designed not for battlefield efficiency but for maximizing
> the profit of defense contractors. We need to pressure our
> representatives in Congress and the appointees in the Defense
> Department to push for truly cost effective weapons, ships and
> aircraft. Our Sailors, Soldiers and Airmen need effective modern
> weapons. The key word being 'effective.'"

> At the start of US involvement in WW2, most of our aircraft were
> substandard (P-39, P-40), our tanks were substandard (M2, some
> M3's), and none of the torpedoes actually worked. We eventually
> developed and fielded great equipment, but it took a while. In
> most cases that development started because the British were
> pushing us for better equipment to buy from us, and we had a
> couple of years to start to get it through development before we
> were actually involved.

> This time we will lose a lot of life and suffer greatly because
> the forces that we will have will be improperly or poorly
> equipped."

[John J. Xenakis]

** 5-Mar-2019 Analysis of China's military

A lengthy analysis by CNN of China's military says that China is
rapidly building up its armed forces to fight and win wars, but that
its navy and air force are designed mainly to fight wars with
countries in its neighborhood -- which is consistent with my own
analysis.

The following are excerpts from the article.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/04/asia/chin...index.html

China's military is going from strength to strength under
Xi Jinping

Under Chinese President Xi Jinping, a revolution has been taking place
inside Beijing's armed forces. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has
grown and modernized rapidly since China reopened to the world in the
1980s, but under Xi that pace has accelerated with a focus on
[1]fighting and winning future wars. Xi has also embarked on a
massive internal reorganization of the PLA, streamlining the
organization and bringing it firmly under his control.

Between 2016 and 2017, [7]32 new ships were commissioned by the PLA,
according to US government reports. In comparison, the US commissioned
13.

Since 2014, China has launched more submarines, warships, principal
amphibious vessels and auxiliaries than the total number of ships
currently serving in the navies of Germany, India, Spain, Taiwan and
the United Kingdom, according to [8]a 2018 report by think tank IISS.
"China's navy is receiving warships so quickly that Chinese sources
liken this to dumping dumplings into soup broth," Erickson said. The
Chinese air force has also been regularly debuting new and improved
planes and weapons, including the twin-engine J-20 stealth fighter.

Beijing's air force is now the largest in Asia and the third largest
in the world, according to the US Defense Department, and is closing
the gap with the US [11]"across a spectrum of capabilities."

While the military strengths of the US and China are often compared,
the two governments ostensibly have built their armed forces to serve
different goals. Washington says it aims to maintain a worldwide
reach for its military to protect allies and American interests
internationally. Beijing claims its interests lie closer to home.

The major scenarios that China's military cares about could be called
"home games, rather than away games," Erickson said. The Chinese
government has built a navy and armed forces designed to protect the
country and exert its influence in the surrounding region, especially
the East and South China seas. The proof is in the military hardware
that the two countries have focused on. While the US has a huge fleet
of 12 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, China has barely one
conventionally powered carrier operating, with another in the
wings. The Type 001A, the country's first homegrown aircraft carrier,
was launched in 2018 but still has not joined the fleet.

While the US has a huge fleet of 12 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers,
China has barely one conventionally powered carrier operating, with
another in the wings. The Type 001A, the country's first homegrown
aircraft carrier, was launched in 2018 but still has not joined the
fleet.

Beijing has, however, rapidly produced Jiangdao-class corvettes, a
small warship generally best suited to fighting close to home.

China has undoubtedly made rapid progress. Some experts, however,
doubt its ability to fight as a coherent force or the experience of
its troops.

[pbrower2a]

That's a high-tech military with civilian leadership that believes in little but its own power. Without question, China could easily crush any nearby regime that goes wayward except India, Japan, or Russia... Good advice for Emperor Kim Jong-Un: don't fire any missiles over Chinese airspace.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 6-Mar-2019 Rebuilding of North Korea missile site may signal collapse of charm offensive

New satellite imagery shows that North Korea has begun a rapid
rebuilding of the Sohae Launch Facility, used for testing long-range
ballistic missiles.

• Sohae Launch Facility in North Korea, March 2, 2019

The Sohae facility has been inactive since August 2018, when North
Korea committed to dismantle it in order to show "prove" that it was
denuclearizing. North Korea demanded a reduction in sanctions in
exchange. The US agreed to temporarily end large military drills with
South Korea, and has recently extended that to a permanent ban, after
the Hanoi summit ended in failure. At the same time, the US demanded
from North Korea a list of all nuclear and missile development sites,
and a timeline to dismantle all of them.

As with many issues in politics and geopolitics, there's a grinding
logic that means that a problem is insoluble -- not that politicians
haven't thought of a solution, but rather that no solution exists. In
the case of North Korea, denuclearization will never occur.
Therefore, the mutual charm offensive between Donald Trump and Kim
Jong-un had to collapse in disaster at some point. The logic is
inescapable.

So the question is not IF the charm offensive collapse will occur, but
WHEN, and that time may be now. Rebuilding the missile test site
is a clear statement that even the symbolic gestures that have
characterized the charm offensive will come to an end.

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton warned North Korea it must
be willing to completely give up its nuclear weapons program or
perhaps face even tougher sanctions.

Quote: If they’re not willing to do it, President Trump has been very
clear they’re not getting relief from the crushing economic
sanctions that have been imposed on them. And we’ll look at
ramping those sanctions up, in fact.

In December, the US announced new sanctions against three senior North
Korean officials for for human rights abuses and censorship in the
country. The new sanctions were in honor of the Otto Warmbier, the
22-year-old American college student who died after being released
from North Korean custody in June 2017.

Besides South Korea, the Japanese should be very concerned about
further development of nuclear weapons, since Japan more than
the US is the intended target.

It's hard to see what Donald "Art of the Deal" Trump is going to do
next. As I've written many times, Trump's foreign policy completely
baffles the media but makes perfect sense when you understand that
he believes the
Generational Dynamics prediction that we're headed for war with China.

North Korea's goal for the charm offensive was to trick Trump into
agreeing to lift the sanctions without any actual denuclearization.
Trump's goal for the charm offensive was to try to prevent or postpone
the coming war. So it will be fascinating to see what Trump does
next. And I've said many times that I'm not going to criticize Trump
for taking steps to prevent WW III, even if WW III is 100% certain, no
matter what Trump does.

--- Sources:

** North Korea rebuilding missile launch facility, satellite photos show
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/satellit...d=61491867
(ABC News)

** Bolton Warns North Korea of More Sanctions If It Doesn't Budge
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...sn-t-budge
(Bloomberg)


--- Related:

*** 28-Feb-2019 Report: Trump blindsided Kim Jong-un at summit
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...322#p44322


** 17-Dec-18 World View -- North Korea threatens US with 'exchanges of fire' over new human rights sanctions
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181217

[Tim Randal Walker]

How about an alternative goal-North Korea agrees not to deploy long range missiles? (That is, missles that can hit the USA).

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-06-2019, 08:43 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > That's a high-tech military with civilian leadership that believes
> in little but its own power. Without question, China could easily
> crush any nearby regime that goes wayward except India, Japan, or
> Russia... Good advice for Emperor Kim Jong-Un: don't fire any
> missiles over Chinese airspace.

There's no way that North Korea will ever attack China. However, they
would readily join with China for a joint attack on South Korea.

(03-06-2019, 11:37 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > How about an alternative goal-North Korea agrees not to deploy
> long range missiles? (That is, missiles that can hit the
> USA).

I've been pretty deeply researching China, Korea and Japan for my
book, and I've definitely reached some conclusions: China really has
no desire for war against America. However, China has a vitriolic
hatred for Japan, and is thirsting for war against Japan. But they
know that war with Japan means war with America, so they're preparing
for war with America.

North Korea is aligned with China on this issue. Theoretically, North
Korea might agree not to deploy long-range ballistic missiles, but
they can't just say "We only wanna hit Japan and South Korea, not the
US," since Japan has a mutual defense treaty with the US, and so an
attack on Japan would lead to war with the US.

[John J. Xenakis]

Guest Wrote:> Also, have you heard that China blew up an ancient Buddha statue a
> few days ago? It's a big deal in Asia. I'm in Asia.

• Photos of Buddha statue before and after it was demolished
  by the Communist Chinese Party (CCP) government.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3650363

The only God that the Chinese permit is Xi Jinping.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 7-Mar-2019 China's Xi Jinping raises concerns over multiple anniversaries

China's president Xi Jinping said this on Tuesday:

Quote:> "This year is the 70th anniversary of the founding of new China.
> Maintaining sustained, healthy economic development and social
> stability is a mission that is extremely arduous."

Xi Jinping has been issuing one warning after another this
year. In January he warned:

Quote:> "Be on high alert to all kinds of erroneous thoughts, vague
> understandings, and bad phenomena in ideological areas. Keep your
> eyes open, see things early and move on them fast."

At other times, Xi Jinping has repeatedly demanded "loyalty" to the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Anyone can be condemned or thrown in
jail for not being loyal, or for having "erroneous thoughts."

Xi referred to the 70th aniversary of the founding of Communist China,
but this is only one of the anniversaries occurring in 2019 that are
concerning him.

Here are some of the major anniversaries coming up this year:

• In March 1959, the invading Communist army conducted a bloody
  crackdown on the Tibetan Buddhists in Tibet. The Dalai Lama fled the
  violence, and crossed the border into India on March 31, 1959. He
  began a permanent exile in India, settling at Dharamsala in Punjab,
  where he established a democratically based shadow Tibetan government.
  The CCP continues its violent crackdown on Tibetan Buddhists to this
  day.
  
  
  
• May 4 is the 100th anniversary of the May 4th movement of 1919.
  The May 4th movement (May 4, 1919), was a massive anti-government
  protest by millions of students in Tiananmen Square, that the
  government brutally put down, but which turned the people into a
  driven population seeking revenge against Japan and the West.
  
  
  
• June 4 is the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre of
  June 4, 1989, after huge student anti-government protests. The
  protests began on May 4 in commemoration of the May 4th movement that
  had occurred 70 years earlier. China's army responded by the mass
  slaughter of thousands of peacefully demonstrating students.
  
  
  
• October 1, 1949, was the founding of Communist China.

So when China warns about "errorneous thoughts," he's referring to
thoughts about the 1919 May 4th Movement, the 1959 Tibentan slaughter,
and the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

The CCP is the most paranoid government in the world, and it's leading
to the stupidest policies in the history of the world. The CCP is
committing genocide and ethnic of Muslim Uighurs in East Turkistan
(Xijiang Province), blowing up Buddhist statues, demolishing Christian
churches, and slaughtering Buddhist Tibetans in Tibet Province. The
idiots in the CCP think that this will protect them from the unwashed
masses.

By the way, the CCP are promising Taiwan that it will be permitted to
govern itself if reunifies with China. That's the same laughable
promise they made to Tibet and Hong Kong.

--- Sources:

-- In sensitive year for China, warnings against 'erroneous thoughts'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china...SKCN1QO0X0
(Reuters)

[David Horn]

Xi is a typical autocrat. He's pulling every string he can to make his rule both permanent and unencumbered. He also has illusions (perhaps even delusions) of grandeur, and that may be more problematic than anything else.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 8-Mar-2019 Shocking China export figures may signal global recession

Analysts are describing China's February import-export figures as
"shocking," and possibly a signal of a global recession.

February exports fell 20.7% from a year earlier, far worse than the
expected 4.8% drop. China still had a trade surplus, as usual, but it
was $4.12 billion, much smaller than the forcasted $26.38 billion.

China’s data on Friday showed its surplus with the United States
narrowed to $14.72 billion in February from $27.3 billion in January,
and it has promised to buy more U.S. goods such as agricultural
products as part of the trade discussions.

Many people are blaming China's weak trade figures on the tariffs
imposed by the Trump administration in conjunction with the trade
talks.

• China came through the 2008 financial crisis by huge spending
  programs, and it's catching up to them. The debt-to-GDP was at 250%
  in mid-2018, up from 14% in 2008. Today, in 2019, Goldman Sachs says
  that it's over 300%.
  
  
  
• The country is riddled with loss-making factories, with excess
  production capacity, insolvent "zombie" companies, all parts of a
  wasteful economy created by debt, corruption and extreme
  centralization of power in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party.
  
  
  
• In 2018, the rate of corporate debt defaults set new records.
  
  
  
• Nonperforming bad loans are a record levels, estimated at a total
  of $8.5 trillion, 24% of total credit.
  
  
  
• Capital outflows and capital flight is rampant, as Chinese
  investors have been driving up real estate prices in many western
  capitals, as in 2018 they remained the top foreign residential real
  estate buyers in the US for six years in a row.
  
  
  
• China's birth rate keeps falling, despite ending the one-child
  policy in 2016, and is now the lowest since 1949.

A lot of people, including the Chinese themselves, believe that a
government-controlled economy will never have a recession because the
government can print money or issue regulations to prevent it.
Actually, the opposite is true. Government-controlled economies are
always a disaster, because the businesses being controlled have no
incentive to develop new products, or to cut bloated bureacracies, or
to end unprofitable businesses, since the government always bails them
out. The result is that a government-controlled economy crashes
harder and faster than a free market economy.

That's what's happening in China. The CCP spent barrels of money, but
has only created bloated bureacracies, zombie companies and ghost
cities. As I wrote recently, except for financial services companies,
there are no profitable companies in China except for one: Huawei.
And Huawei is under attack internationally because it's more and more
widely understood that Huawei devices and chips have backdoors that
can be controlled by China's military.

The Chinese economy accounts for almost a third of global growth,
which is why many economists are predicting a global recession.

A Chinese recession will certainly cause more public protests, as
there are already hundreds of thousands of "mass events" each year.
China has had massive rebellions throughout its history, the last two
of which were Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49) or the Taiping
Rebellion (1852-64).

China is overdue for its next massive rebellion, and the CCP criminals
are aware of that, which is why they've built concentration camps and
crematoria for a million Muslim Uighurs in East Turkistan (Xinjiang
province), they're blowing up Buddhist statues, demolishing Christian
churches, slaughtering Buddhist Tibetans in Tibet Province, and
demanding that the new Yellow Emperor, Xi Jinping, be the only person
who may be worshipped as God.

------ Sources:

--- China February exports tumble the most in three years, spur fears
of 'trade recession'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china...SKCN1QP0CA
(Reuters)

--- China's Slowdown Is Exposing The Cracks In The Global Economy
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4247239...al-economy
(Seeking Alpha)

--- China's exports fall more than 20% in February; overall trade data
come in much weaker
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/08/china-fe...-data.html
(CNBC)

--- China’s exports plunge more than 20%
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/03/articl...e-than-20/
(Asia Times)

--- Chinese exports fall amid US tariffs, weak global demand
https://www.apnews.com/fb6fe35a2c3442b3927fbe46fa025fd6 (AP)

[Ragnarök_62]

(03-08-2019, 02:47 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 8-Mar-2019 Shocking China export figures may signal global recession

Analysts are describing China's February import-export figures as
"shocking," and possibly a signal of a global recession.

<snip>

• China came through the 2008 financial crisis by huge spending
  programs, and it's catching up to them.  The debt-to-GDP was at 250%
  in mid-2018, up from 14% in 2008.  Today, in 2019, Goldman Sachs says
  that it's over 300%.
  
  
  
• The country is riddled with loss-making factories, with excess
  production capacity, insolvent "zombie" companies, all parts of a
  wasteful economy created by debt, corruption and extreme
  centralization of power in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party.
  
  
  
• In 2018, the rate of corporate debt defaults set new records.
  
  
  
• Nonperforming bad loans are a record levels, estimated at a total
  of $8.5 trillion, 24% of total credit.
  
  
  
• Capital outflows and capital flight is rampant, as Chinese
  investors have been driving up real estate prices in many western
  capitals, as in 2018 they remained the top foreign residential real
  estate buyers in the US for six years in a row.
  
  
  
• China's birth rate keeps falling, despite ending the one-child
  policy in 2016, and is now the lowest since 1949.
  

That's what's happening in China.  The CCP spent barrels of money, but
has only created bloated bureacracies, zombie companies and ghost
cities.  As I wrote recently, except for financial services companies,
there are no profitable companies in China except for one: Huawei.
And Huawei is under attack internationally because it's more and more
widely understood that Huawei devices and chips have backdoors that
can be controlled by China's military.

<snip>

For a minute, I thought you were talking about the US

* Zombies A USA

https://qz.com/1141732/one-in-every-10-a...-a-zombie/

* crashing birth rate.
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2018/05/23/birth-rate-drop

*  Defaults here and now, and upcoming!

https://www.businessinsider.com/10-state...ult-2010-5
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-0...ial-crisis
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/us/po...ficit.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/consumer...llion.html

*  Non performing loans
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/sub...51618.html
Hahahahahahah   Private equity companies get to eat some shit here.

The US doesn't isn't as bad wrt total debt level 'cause we can do CTRL-P with our reserve currency.  However as a saver, I want the  FED to go to hell for fucking  up my interest rate return with QE infinity.

And... Der Trumpfenfurfur's tax cuts for the rich have resulted in record deficits for a nice cherry on top.

How about the US's falling lifespan?
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2...inequality

Does China have an inequality problem like the US?

Is China a literal shithole country like the US?
ttps://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/san-francisco-named-poop-capital-of-us/1510436442
https://www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/584380/

[John J. Xenakis]

** 9-Mar-2019 South Korea's 3-layer missile defense system

North Korea's "charm offensive" seems clearly over. The news this
morning is that satellite images of increased activity around the
Sanumdong missile assembly site suggest that North Korea is preparing
to launch a missile or satellite. This follows reports last week that
the Sohae Launch Facility, used for testing long-range ballistic
missiles, is being rebuilt.

The failed Hanoi summit may have been the last straw for Kim. He may
have decided that if he can't use a "charm offensive" to trick the
Americans to agree to remove the sanctions with nothing in return --
using the same kinds of tricks that always worked for his father -- he
may as well resume testing.

As far as I can tell from correspondence with people in this forum and
through e-mail, almost no South Koreans still believe in a "peaceful
reunification," and they're expecting the worst. Even the left-wing
president Moon Jae-in approved a huge weapons development budget
increase in January.

South Korea has for decades been exposed to North Korea’s large and
diverse arsenal of tactical and intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
So I've been doing some research on South Korea's ballistic missile
defenses.

The most controversial component of South Korea's missile defense
system is the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD), supplied by
the United States military. THAAD is designed to shoot down ballistic
missiles on their terminal trajectory as they plunge down to their
targets.

The Chinese were and are furious over the installation of The THAAD
system -- not because it protects South Korea from North Korean
missiles, but because it includes "over the horizon" radar that would
provide early warning to the American military of a missile attack
from China. Nonetheless, even Moon Jae-in, having initially refused
further THAAD deployments, finally approved them after North Korea's
spectacular ballistic missile tests in 2017.

However, the THAAD system is deployed too far south to protect Seoul,
and anyway it can't protect against low-altitude missiles that the
North would use on Seoul. THAAD can protect urban areas in the
southern part of South Korea, and could also defend US troops landing
and disembarking from the port of Busan in the southeast.

This brings us back to the KM-SAM Cheongung medium-range
surface-to-air missile system and its new PIP missile interceptor,
manufactured by LIG Nex1 and other South Korean firms.
THAAD can protect the south, while KM-SAM can protect Seoul
in the north.

There's actually a 3-layer ballistic missile defense system,
consisting of THAAD, KM-SAM, and also Patriot anti-missile defense
systems. There's also additional support from an Aegis anti-missile
system when an equipped US warship is in the area.

THAAD and KM-SAM work together to create an anti-missile defense
network. While THAAD defends against high-altitude ballistic
missiles, KM-SAM can defend against low-altitude aircraft and missile
attacks. The American-made Patriot anti-missile systems also provide
a tactical layer of defense.

That's the plan, anyway, but as we know, no plan survives the first
battle. There's no way to test this three-level system except with
computer modeling. When barrages of North Korean missiles start
flying over the DMZ, then we'll finally know how well all of this
worked.


--- Sources:

-- North Korea 'preparing rocket launch', images suggest ::wla
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47504723
(BBC)

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-08-2019, 10:14 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Is China a literal shithole country like the US?

Two things.

First, I've been saying for years that the US economy is heading for
disaster, as public debt is increasing exponentially (except during
the sequestration), and the stock market is in a major bubble.

• Federal income, outlays and deficit, 1980 to present (as of
  November 2014)

** 2-Feb-15 World View -- Washington joins the world in explosive spending splurge
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e150202


The second thing that I've said is that as bad as the US economy is,
China's economy is much worse.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Mar-2019 Steve Bannon in Japan: China's motives

I really dont care Wrote:> https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/0...IJ-PckzZdh

> The bulk of Bannon’s 40-minute speech was spent unleashing a
> bitter diatribe against China, which he argued is posing a threat
> to “Japan, the United States and the Pacific.”

> He branded it a “hegemonic” and “totalitarian” power that thrives
> on technologies it “stole” from Japan and the U.S., while alleging
> that Chinese people are “oppressed,” “tortured” and “abused” by
> high-echelon officials within the Chinese Communist Party.

> “The defenders of the CCP say, ‘China is not expansionist … It’s
> always their neighbors that are expansionist,’ ” Bannon
> said. “That is quite simply a lie.”

> “The radical cadre in the CCP is the most geopolitically
> ambitious, aggressive, expansionist power in world history,” he
> said, explaining how China’s trademark “One Belt, One Road”
> initiative preys on infrastructure-hungry developing countries by
> lending them money that “in no way can be paid back,” to put them
> under Beijing’s control.

> Bannon sought to rally support from LDP lawmakers by emphasizing
> that against such a backdrop, Japan must stand firm and fight
> China’s assertive rise in solidarity with a Trump-led America.

> If the “strong, robust” combination of Japan and the U.S. is
> realized, he said, “there is nobody in the Pacific that can stand
> up to that. China is a paper tiger.”

Thanks for pointing this out.

I wrote to Steve Bannon about this. Here is the exchange:

John Wrote:> Someone pointed me towards the Japan Times article describing your
> speech to the Liberal Democratic Party.

> https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/0...te-probes/

> What you're describing isn't really what's going on.

> I'm writing a book on China, Korea and Japan. It's almost
> finished, approaching 100,000 words, and based on hundreds of
> sources, including a couple of dozen books. So I've done
> extensive research, and the conclusion I've reached (with
> certainty) is that China does not really want war with America or
> the West (except possibly with the UK for the Opium Wars), but
> they're thirsting for a revenge war with Japan, even though they
> know that it means war with America as well.

> China may be "expansionist," but that's not what's driving them.
> What's driving them is the desire for revenge.

> My book was originally going to be about 40,000 words, and it was
> going to be about China's claims to the South China Sea. After I
> got into it, I realized that China has no claims whatsoever to the
> South China Sea. It's totally a hoax. So then I changed the
> objective of the book to figuring out China's "Century of
> Humiliation." After I got into that, a major question arose: Why
> didn't the same thing happen to Japan? So the third objective of
> the book was to compare China with Japan, and what I discovered is
> that Japan has repeatedly and consistently bested China in all
> areas -- economically, diplomatically, militarily, and in
> governance. That leads directly to the conclusion that China is
> justifying its barbaric actions by seeking revenge against Japan.

> In fact, they're mimicking the barbaric policies that Japan used
> leading to WW II, such as the concentration camps and crematoria
> in East Turkistan (Xinjiang province), and violent attacks on
> Christians, Buddhists and Muslims.

> If you describe the CCP as "the most geopolitically ambitious,
> aggressive, expansionist power in world history," then you're
> missing the point. Those are secondary objectives. China is not
> like Germany or WW II or even Japan in WW II, both of which were
> working on expansionist policies.

> It's hard to describe China's policies as anything but insanity.
> China's policies don't even make sense. BRI, as you point out, is
> economic suicide for China. The Uighur genocide is one of the
> stupidest policies of any nation in history. Trying to
> exterminate Buddism and Christianity is totally insane.

> The ordinary people of China do not feel “oppressed,” “tortured”
> and “abused," as long as they have jobs. A recession would change
> that.

> Maybe it's a distinction without a difference. Online we've been
> working out out some likely military scenarios that the Chinese
> will follow, but once the missiles start flying, it probably won't
> matter what the motives are. China's motives will be raw and
> visceral.

> On the other hand, you probably didn't have to tell the Japanese
> what the actual Chinese motives are. They already know what
> barbarians they were, with Unit 731, with the Rape of Nanking, and
> with comfort women. They're well aware that the Chinese are
> coming to do the same things to them, and they know that America
> may be too busy trying to save itself than trying to save
> them.

Steve Bannon Wrote:> They want that also but trust me they want hegemonic dominance
> over US and the West

> #1 goal

John Wrote:> Sure, but that's delusional, and they know it. In fact, they may
> even want people to believe that, as a smokescreen, just as
> everything else the Chinese say is a smokescreen to mislead
> people.

> Saying that the Chinese "want hegemonic dominance" is like saying
> that someone "wants" to sleep with Jennifer Lopez. We all want
> things in our dreams, but we know that they're just dreams.

> You can't look at the Chinese character in any obvious, rational
> manner. First of all, "hegemonic dominance" is not in the Chinese
> character, and not something they would even want. Any
> pretensions to "hegemonic dominance" would disappear quickly, as
> soon as the first shot was fired.

> There is only one motive driving the Chinese that will never
> disappear -- a vitriolic all-consuming uncontrollable hatred for
> the Japanese and an overwhelming and uncontrollable desire for
> revenge. That all-consuming hatred will not be quenched until
> they've gotten that revenge. Nothing else will matter, until the
> very last day of the war, and I suspect that the Japanese know it
> as well as the Chinese know it, even though they don't want to
> talk about it with anyone in the West.

[Ragnarök_62]

(03-10-2019, 10:22 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(03-08-2019, 10:14 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   Is China a literal shithole country like the US?

Two things.

First, I've been saying for years that the US economy is heading for
disaster, as public debt is increasing exponentially (except during
the sequestration), and the stock market is in a major bubble.

• Federal income, outlays and deficit, 1980 to present (as ofNovember 2014)

** 2-Feb-15 World View -- Washington joins the world in explosive spending splurge
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e150202


The second thing that I've said is that as bad as the US economy is,
China's economy is much worse.

Now, I agree that China's and the US economies are debt laden fat pigs on their way to the slaughter house.

* Pig award for US and China



However, AFAIK,  I haven't seen any info on disease resurgences from filth or crazy antifvaccers in China.  I also know of no literal Chinese shitholes  ? like right here in the USA.?

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-12-2019, 12:14 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > However, AFAIK, I haven't seen any info on disease resurgences
> from filth or crazy antifvaccers in China. I also know of no
> literal Chinese shitholes ? like right here in the USA.?

Well, I'm always suspicious of comparisons of the United States to
another country where the press is tightly controlled, and where
reporting bad news can get you thrown into a pit, hung by your ankles,
and have your fingernails pulled out with pliers.

Is there anything as bad as the San Francisco shithole in China?
Nothing that's been reported, of course. But Beijing is still choking
with smog.

Also, check out the following story:

** 26-Jan-18 World View -- In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migrant homes in cities

** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e180126


Tens of thousands of migrants were evicted from their homes in just
one month. People were given only a few hours notice before their
home were demolished. Did the migrants go out and sit on the curb and
start pooping? They might be allowed to do that in San Francisco, but
not in Beijing.