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Generational Dynamics World View
(09-10-2019, 11:25 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: I feel the same as you about Bolton.  I think he pushed things too far with Afghanistan, though; he almost certainly leaked to sabotage the Camp David meeting.

If we had a peace deal in Afghanistan, the Taliban would take over, sure.  But so what?  This is the place where it costs us $1000 to get a gallon of gasoline in to fuel our tanks.  It's an expensive place for us to keep a military presence, and as a landlocked nation, it has zero fundamental geopolitical importance to us.

Yes, Bin Laden launched the 9/11 attacks from Afghanistan.  He could just as easily have done it from Pakistan, though, where he hid for years.  If the Taliban agreed not to harbor international terrorists, which they probably don't want to do any more anyway, that would satisfy the only possible interest the US had in the place.  Some sort of enforcement mechanism would be nice, but having had to fight for two decades the first time they did it would probably be deterrence enough.

I would agree it would have been better if Bolton had been able ultimately to support the President on this, and stayed in the administration.

I'm definitely not a Bolton fan, but anything we do in Afghanistan will be wrong on some level … except for fighting there like it's do-or-die.  Bolton loves war everywhere.  It's good that he's not around to be war-whisperer, but at least he has the courage of his twisted convictions.  Trump just goes for the 5-minute win, and wonders why things keep going bad.  I'm amazed that I'm writing this, but I'm not sure we've gained by losing Bolton.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
(09-07-2019, 09:45 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 07-Sep-2019 Compromising on national security

(09-07-2019, 09:31 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   The issue is that people like Bolton and Pompeo insist that China
>   compromise on national security issues as well.  I can't think of
>   a case where a nation has compromised on national security issues.
>  

Just off the top of my head:
  • America compromised on national security issues when it allowed
    China for 30 years to cheat and extort on trade issues, and steal
    intellectual property.

  • America compromised on national security issues when George Bush
    ended North Korean sanctions in 2007

  • America compromised on national security issues when it signed the
    Iran nuclear treaty, after making one concession after another.

  • America is compromising on national security issues right now with
    the faracical peace negotiations with the Taliban in
    Afghanistan.

I'm sure we can come up with a bunch more if we tried.

Yup, in the name of globalization, John.   I wouldn't say it was "the US".  Now if we explain why this happened , then the finger of blame points to multinational corporations and their toadies in all manner of places in the US government.
---Value Added Cool
Reply
(09-11-2019, 10:27 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:
(09-07-2019, 09:45 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 07-Sep-2019 Compromising on national security

(09-07-2019, 09:31 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   The issue is that people like Bolton and Pompeo insist that China
>   compromise on national security issues as well.  I can't think of
>   a case where a nation has compromised on national security issues.
>  

Just off the top of my head:
  • America compromised on national security issues when it allowed
    China for 30 years to cheat and extort on trade issues, and steal
    intellectual property.

  • America compromised on national security issues when George Bush
    ended North Korean sanctions in 2007

  • America compromised on national security issues when it signed the
    Iran nuclear treaty, after making one concession after another.

  • America is compromising on national security issues right now with
    the faracical peace negotiations with the Taliban in
    Afghanistan.

I'm sure we can come up with a bunch more if we tried.

Yup, in the name of globalization, John.   I wouldn't say it was "the US".  Now if we explain why this happened , then the finger of blame points to multinational corporations and their toadies in all manner of places in the US government.

Well said.  There is a reckoning coming at some point.  Gilded Age 2.0 will be no more durable than its predecessor, and the fall from the dizzying heights will be no less dramatic.  Sooner would be better.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
** 11-Sep-2019 World View: Taliban takes over Afghanistan

(09-10-2019, 11:25 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > If we had a peace deal in Afghanistan, the Taliban would take
> over, sure. But so what? This is the place where it costs us $1000
> to get a gallon of gasoline in to fuel our tanks. It's an
> expensive place for us to keep a military presence, and as a
> landlocked nation, it has zero fundamental geopolitical importance
> to us.

Well, in addition to the other issues I listed, there's the opium
problem. Afghanistan is by far the biggest producer of opium in the
world. 90% of the world's heroin is made from opium grown in
Afghanistan.

That's with the Americans trying to suppress it. Without the
Americans bombing poppy fields and heroin factories, production would
grow even higher. But, as you say, "So what?"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47861444
Reply
** 12-Sep-2019 World View: The CCP Master Race

(09-11-2019, 10:27 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Yup, in the name of globalization, John. I wouldn't say it was
> "the US". Now if we explain why this happened , then the finger of
> blame points to multinational corporations and their toadies in
> all manner of places in the US government.

This is really silly, but it's not surprising that you would say that,
given your view that China and the United States are the same or, as
you put it, "two peas in a pod."

I've spent thousands of hours researching China's history, and how
over two millennia the culture has developed its belief that the
Chinese ("yellow race, black hair, brown eyes, yellow skin") are the
superior master race and why they're totally contemptuous of us and
our laws and our way of life because we're all barbarians.

So the reason that the CCP believe they can arrest and enslave a
million Uighurs, or violently attack Buddhists and Christians, or can
ignore their own signed agreements over Hong Kong, or can ignore
international law in the South China Sea, or can steal intellectual
property or cheat on trade is because they believe that they've been
granted by the Kingdom of Heaven the right to do anything they want to
the barbarians. I can assure you that this has nothing to do with
multinational corporations or the toadies in the US government.

Just as a murderer might justify his actions by blaming the way his
parents raised him, the CCP justifies its illegal atrocities by
referring to the Opium Wars and the "Century of Humiliation"
and the "Unequal Treaties." They ignore, for example, the massive
atrocities committed by Mao Zedong that brutally killed tens of
millions of Chinese in the horrific Great Leap Forward and
the disastrous Great Cultural Revolution.

If you'd like to understand what's really going on with China, rather
than ridiculous things like toadies in the US government, then read my
book:

"World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be
Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2) Paperback: 331
pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

If you actually want to know what's going on, then this will tell
you.
Reply
** 12-Sep-2019 World View: Suicide rate

Tom Mazanec Wrote:> John, read this article about suicide:
> http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archi...uch-higher

The suicide issue is a lot more complicated than the "Life is an
absolutely incredible gift" simplistic moralizing approach.

For Generational Dynamics, I've written thousands of articles on
things like war, torture, rape, genocide, ethnic cleansing, poverty,
starvation and suicide. What I've learned is that "Life is absolutely
incredibly worthless." And life is particularly absolutely incredibly
worthless for old people, who are worth less than garbage.

Here's a quote that captures the concept:

Man of La Mancha Wrote:> "'Life as it is.' I have lived for over forty years
> and I've seen 'life as it is'. Pain. Misery.
> Cruelty beyond belief. I've heard all the voices of
> God's noblest creature -- moans from bundles of filth
> in the street. I've been a soldier and a slave. I've
> seen my comrades fall in battle or die more slowly
> under the lash in Africa. I've held them at the last
> moment. These were men who saw 'life as it is,' but
> they died despairing.

> No glory. No bray of last words. Only their eyes,
> filled with confusion, questioning, 'Why?'

> I do not think they were asking why they were dying,
> but why they had ever lived.

> When life itself seems lunatic, who knows where
> madness lies? Perhaps to be too practical is madness.
> To surrender dreams, this may be madness. To seek
> treasure where there is only trash. Too much sanity
> may be madness. But maddest of all -- to see life as
> it is, and not as it should be!"

For every species of animal, the population grows faster than the
food supply. The same is true for humans.

If the population grows faster than the food supply, as it does for
every animal species, then there have to be ways to get rid of people
-- through war, disease, famine, genocide, ethnic cleansing, suicide.
One can prove mathematically that these things must occur.

If you believe that God created the world, then it's God's fault that
war, disease, famine, genocide, ethnic cleansing, and suicide occur.
If God didn't want these things to occur, then he should have created
a world where the population and the food supply grow at the same
rate. But they don't, and that's God's fault.

The need for war, genocide and suicide becomes more and more apparent
during decades of peace, as each decade passes, there is less food per
person than the previous decade. Everything falls into place during
generational crisis wars, where this imbalance is fixed.

If you believe that God created the world, then you can see all of
God's tools come into place to fix the problem that he created -- war,
disease, famine, genocide, ethnic cleansing, suicide are all the
"absolutely incredible gifts" that God provided as tools to kill
enough worthless people so that the rest of the worthless people have
enough to eat. God makes sure that, sooner or later, every nation
throws out its garbage.

Everybody's heard of the "Baby Boom" that followed World War II.
But few people mention the "Baby Bust" that precedes a generational
crisis war. We're seeing it today as young people postpone
marriage and children, and the suicide rate has been going up
for almost 20 years.

There's less food per person today than there was in the 1990s, and
that translates into poverty, and so in America we're seeing more
suicides by people who can't pay for groceries, and also more suicides
by teenagers who love their parents enough to want to spare them the
enormous costs of raising children. If you or your parents can't
pay for groceries, then killing yourself is perfectly reasonable.

A more dramatic result of what's going on is the refugee situation.
We see massive movements of refugees in Latin America, Asia and
Africa, as huge populations of people are no longer able to feed
themselves or their families.

All of these things also happened in the 1930s. Here's a fascinating
article that describes suicide in the 1930s:

http://www.oldmagazinearticles.com/artic...depression

So, as poverty increases, more and more people kill themselves, which
makes sense.

Here's one nugget from the article that I found particularly
interesting: "The suicide rate remained higher than normal throughout
the remainder of the Great Depression and was then drastically reduced
when World War II began in Europe."

I interpret this to mean that when someone who can't afford to buy
groceries might commit suicide during times of peace, but might join
the army during times of war. That way, you become a hero rather than
a coward.

People who commit suicide are viewed by other people as cowards,
heroes or martyrs. If you're going to commit suicide, then you might
commit suicide by joining the army so you can be a hero. Or you might
commit suicide in the name of the Pope, so that you'll be a martyr and
-- who knows? You might even be rewarded for committing suicide by
becoming a Saint.

After all: Like war, committing suicide is God's Will.

P.S.: If you're religious and you want to commit suicide without
"going to hell," then you have an easy solution. Just jump off the
roof of a ten story building and, on the way down, pray to God,
repent, and ask God for forgiveness. By the time you go splat, you'll
be forgiven and ready to go to heaven. Easy peasy.
Reply
(09-12-2019, 02:41 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 12-Sep-2019 World View: The CCP Master Race

(09-11-2019, 10:27 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   Yup, in the name of globalization, John.  I wouldn't say it was
>   "the US". Now if we explain why this happened , then the finger of
>   blame points to multinational corporations and their toadies in
>   all manner of places in the US government.

This is really silly, but it's not surprising that you would say that,
given your view that China and the United States are the same or, as
you put it, "two peas in a pod."

I've spent thousands of hours researching China's history, and how
over two millennia the culture has developed its belief that the
Chinese ("yellow race, black hair, brown eyes, yellow skin") are the
superior master race and why they're totally contemptuous of us and
our laws and our way of life because we're all barbarians.

So the reason that the CCP believe they can arrest and enslave a
million Uighurs, or violently attack Buddhists and Christians, or can
ignore their own signed agreements over Hong Kong, or can ignore
international law in the South China Sea, or can steal intellectual
property or cheat on trade is because they believe that they've been
granted by the Kingdom of Heaven the right to do anything they want to
the barbarians.  I can assure you that this has nothing to do with
multinational corporations or the toadies in the US government.

Just as a murderer might justify his actions by blaming the way his
parents raised him, the CCP justifies its illegal atrocities by
referring to the Opium Wars and the "Century of Humiliation"
and the "Unequal Treaties."  They ignore, for example, the massive
atrocities committed by Mao Zedong that brutally killed tens of
millions of Chinese in the horrific Great Leap Forward and
the disastrous Great Cultural Revolution.

If you'd like to understand what's really going on with China, rather
than ridiculous things like toadies in the US government, then read my
book:

"World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be
Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2) Paperback: 331
pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

If you actually want to know what's going on, then this will tell
you.

Sorry Boomer but you are just another dirty globalist. Another Globalists who wants the confrontation to be based on Achieving CCP "behavior correction" or the outright overthrow of the CCP. If the CCP culturally can't respect any non-Chinese; how come the CCP respected and feared the Soviet Union during the cold war, how come china and Iran are able to have mutual deals. What you cannot admit is that Your sanctimonious approach is NOT the only option in terms of courses of action. Same with you imagining afghan heroin reaching America, how would the heroin get here if the border is Closed? The obvious answer to that question that you always avoid overt mention of; is that you boomers will NEVER close the border, thus the border will stay open indefinitely. Same with nuclear arms; under globalist boomers, you would NEVER see the US produce NEW nuclear warheads. Because both the above options are contrary to your guys boomer globalist ideology. You boomers just can't admit that you guys screwed up and are now actively blocking any attempt to fix anything. Saying the "other guy" was a cheater and rogue is not an excuse, especially if the arrangement arose in the first place due to mere convenience. During the recent July 30 debates Steve Bullock was called essentially a Lunatic by Boomers who backed Liz warren when bullock said that he was prepared to launch nuclear first-strikes if he faced such an emergency; When in fact Warren was the idiot, but she is lionized by boomers (left-wing ones) because she supports the establishment party line. Americans care for American's, not foreigners you globalists need to stop giving our wealth and country away. We will never do your disgusting "paragon of giving/goodness way" and rhetorically answer that late 1990s Chinese general who wondered if we would risk Los Angeles for Taipei or Seoul if it came down to it. No self-respecting country will give anything to freeloaders and piggybackers. Your "generous caring and giving America" only exists due to your generation holding the leash and you know it.
Reply
John -- food is rarely the problem in America. It is real estate. SNAP can be easy to get, and I can live on what I once got. By avoiding the tempting junk foods I could instead have such goodies as strawberries and asparagus, and maybe have a steak once a week. Of course that is a truly healthy portion of steak -- about the size of a deck of cards. (I am on disability for age and Asperger's, and I am trying to get off disability... but I live where the jobs are a poor match).

If you wonder why SNAP is so easy to get, it is because entities such as Kroger, Wal*Mart, Dollar General, IGA, Meijer, Aldi, and Albertson's prefer that people get food on SNAP cards than that they shoplift. Besides, people on SNAP often buy high-mark-up chips, pastries, sodas, and highly-processed foods.

In the First World, the critical shortage is in real estate. If you live where the opportunities are, you get the privilege of paying as much as 70% of your income in rent. Such leaves little room for much indulgence. Let us put it this way: it is easier to make money as a landlord leasing to software engineers who create many of the technological wonders of our times than it is to become a software engineer. One cannot inherit a job as a software engineer, but one can inherit rental properties if born into the right family.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
** 13-Sep-2019 World View: Food and real estate

(09-12-2019, 06:35 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > John -- food is rarely the problem in America. It is real
> estate.

I agree that almost no one starves to death in America, but there's a
very big difference between being able to pay for groceries versus
eating in a soup kitchen. Food and real estate are two sides of the
same coin. Similarly, there's a very big difference between being
able to pay the rent for your own apartment versus living in a
homeless shelter. In another country, where people are living in mud
huts, perhaps real estate isn't a big problem, but people might still
be starving. The core problem, as in the 1930s, is that there's less
and less money in the world, which means that more people around the
world can't afford groceries, rent, medicines, etc., which leads to an
increase in suicide.
Reply
(09-12-2019, 02:41 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 12-Sep-2019 World View: The CCP Master Race

(09-11-2019, 10:27 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   Yup, in the name of globalization, John.  I wouldn't say it was
>   "the US". Now if we explain why this happened , then the finger of
>   blame points to multinational corporations and their toadies in
>   all manner of places in the US government.

This is really silly, but it's not surprising that you would say that,
given your view that China and the United States are the same or, as
you put it, "two peas in a pod."

I've spent thousands of hours researching China's history, and how
over two millennia the culture has developed its belief that the
Chinese ("yellow race, black hair, brown eyes, yellow skin") are the
superior master race and why they're totally contemptuous of us and
our laws and our way of life because we're all barbarians.

So the reason that the CCP believe they can arrest and enslave a
million Uighurs, or violently attack Buddhists and Christians, or can
ignore their own signed agreements over Hong Kong, or can ignore
international law in the South China Sea, or can steal intellectual
property or cheat on trade is because they believe that they've been
granted by the Kingdom of Heaven the right to do anything they want to
the barbarians.  I can assure you that this has nothing to do with
multinational corporations or the toadies in the US government.

Just as a murderer might justify his actions by blaming the way his
parents raised him, the CCP justifies its illegal atrocities by
referring to the Opium Wars and the "Century of Humiliation"
and the "Unequal Treaties."  They ignore, for example, the massive
atrocities committed by Mao Zedong that brutally killed tens of
millions of Chinese in the horrific Great Leap Forward and
the disastrous Great Cultural Revolution.

If you'd like to understand what's really going on with China, rather
than ridiculous things like toadies in the US government, then read my
book:

"World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be
Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2) Paperback: 331
pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

If you actually want to know what's going on, then this will tell
you.

1,  2 peas in a pod, yup pretty much.  Just think of it as assorted forms of multispectral warfare that's going on.
The US does regime change to steal stuff, the Chinese bait short term thinking multinationals with a big market in exchange for said multinationals giving away the store. The Chinese do things to assorted malcontents. The US does other things to its malcontents, like Assuange ,etc. The Chinese ignore inconvenient agreements just like us John. How about that ABM treaty, How about the Iran agreement?, how about even trade agreements?.

2. If the US government didn't have toadies, then why didn't the US do anything to stop the deinsdustrialzation that started way back in the 1970's? Perhaps the US should have looked into how the embargos may halve meant something like depletion is afoot that should have meant a change in energy policy about that?  The real response was to claim the Mideast and look where we are now?

3. Murderers Inc. I'm sure you're correct wrt Chinese crimes. I just accept the fact the US has also performed crimes , for us are claimed to be for some noble cause, but are just about the old game of theft nonetheless.  So here's list for some of our shennagins.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta...ime_change


4. Read your book.   Actually, the State Department should read this book. That way they know that tariffs are sort of OK, but you have to apply them to all imports, not just China. That's because Chinese companies can just build stuff in say Vietnam and export from there. The next thing the State Department needs to know that how money, which is now holed up in assorted tax havens is a national security threat.  Therefore they need to sanction places like Luxembourg,Cayman Islands, Panama, Isle of Man, etc. You have to sanction these things so you have some cards to play to force multinational companies to build stuff here. I also think the Department of Labor should read your book. That is because if the US wants to win, then the US will need a skilled workforce to know how to make stuff besides fast food, taxi service, and coffee. The Congress itself should read your book. That way, they'll know that if they don't pass single payer, then the US won't have a healthy enough population for a possible draft , let alone able to work hard enough.
---Value Added Cool
Reply
(09-13-2019, 08:22 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 13-Sep-2019 World View: Food and real estate

(09-12-2019, 06:35 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   John -- food is rarely the problem in America. It is real
>   estate.

I agree that almost no one starves to death in America, but there's a
very big difference between being able to pay for groceries versus
eating in a soup kitchen.  Food and real estate are two sides of the
same coin.  Similarly, there's a very big difference between being
able to pay the rent for your own apartment versus living in a
homeless shelter.  In another country, where people are living in mud
huts, perhaps real estate isn't a big problem, but people might still
be starving.  The core problem, as in the 1930s, is that there's less
and less money in the world, which means that more people around the
world can't afford groceries, rent, medicines, etc., which leads to an
increase in suicide.

The quantity of money is no problem unless one has concern about the stability of prices and the desirability of the currency. Zimbabwe under the late Robert Muck-up-all-things was rich in digits on its currency, if nothing else. 

I have been using SNAP due to a low income from disability payments, and you have seen my story. Hunger will not be a problem, but I can imagine being priced into the street as soon after my brother and his girlfriend sell off the house. Being stuck in extreme cold or heat will kill even faster than starvation (heat at the least through thirst). Where food is cheap, the elites prefer that people die of means other than starvation which is just too offensive for even the cruelest sensibilities.

The fault is that the USA is basically about as pure a plutocracy as it has ever been, and plutocracy is ultimately ruin for all but those in the economic elite. Eventually the plutocrats find people expendable, and they prefer that people who can't find meaning in life after they are no longer able to find delight in the table scraps or find some other basic need unmet die off. Suicide, heatstroke, freezing to death, being killed in strong-arm robberies, or dying for lack of medical care is just the same.  Starvation in a country that has a surplus of food is just too ugly and blatant. There are quieter, more private ways in which to die.

America's economic elites are no better (and I speak of landlords, tycoons, and the executive nomenklatura) are no more moral than prior elites. They are not quite as bad as those elites such as the Nazi and Stalinist elites who murder people with gas or bullets, but in that respect they are little better the convicts who might say things like "I am a murderer/arsonist/rapist -- but at least I am not a child molester". They are little better than one elite in American history -- the slave-owning planters who presented themselves as the best thing that ever happened to the African-Americans that they literally owned. As much as we wish, we cannot fully escape a part of the American heritage that we like to pretend has no further relevance.  War? War is extremely profitable for the suppliers of armaments and for those who get provisions to the dreary barracks.

The elites profiteer, no matter what the system, by treating others badly even if those elites dangle the promises of pie-in-the-sky-when-you-die, unimaginable prosperity because the state owns the productive assets, miracles of technology and entrepreneurialism, the wonders of themselves that will somehow waft some great benefiots onto others, or the proceeds of victimizing the model minorities of the times. Asian-Americans are much analogous to what Jews were in Germany before 1933. 

Having been in pre-suicidal situations of economic ruin, I have stated at times that I hated life -- and people do not commit suicide unless they hate the life that they then see ahead of themselves. If they hate their lives enough, people might simply quit taking medicines upon which they depend for survival or tuning off the heat or closing the windows in extreme weather, which are ways of committing suicide without hanging, shooting, or poisoning oneself and making it blatant.

But even without suicide, one sees a consistent pattern in which the elderly seem to get more conservative in their politics. People who have a stake in the system, even if that is little more than the ability to enjoy life with means readily at their disposal, reach old age. Poor people are more likely to die before they get old for many reasons. People with a stake in the system are more likely to be politically conservative.   That people have religious strictures against overt suicide (it is called Selbstmord in German, literally "murder of the self") may not keep them from forgetting to take their pills or inject medicine -- or to use opiates first to numb the pain of life only to take too many.

People who see meaning in life do not kill themselves. They do what they can to see grandchildren participate in coming-of-age rituals (quinceanero, bar mitzvah, graduation) as vicarious delight. Maybe part of a good life is taking delight in the successes of others. But if those successes are frustrated (coming of age means an initiation into a criminal gang, getting 25-to-life for armed robbery, getting strung out on drugs, having an abortion) then maybe life is factually anything but precious.

In truly bad times (the latter part of a 3T is truly awful for people not in the economic elite, and a 4T in which the economic and administrative elites exploit all others to the fullest for their own selfish gain and indulgence), life is precious for far fewer people. At times, someone in ill health or in destitution (or fear of destitution) can conclude, even rationally, that life does not merit the struggle. Hardly anyone believes it wonderful to suffer for people to whom they have no bonds, as in a pure plutocracy in which the Master Class see workers as livestock at best and vermin at worst. It is the increasing depravity of every prior 3T and the one that we recently created that makes the severity of a 4T a near-certainty. Whether the 4T culminates in a muddle (American Civil War) triumph that enshrines new and sustainable institutions (American Revolution and Constitutional Crisis, Great Depression and Second World War for the US, Franco-Prussian War in Germany), exhaustion of the old order (Britain and the Soviet Union after the Second World War), obliteration of the 4T leadership with the establishment of a new and more viable order (Germany, Italy, and Japan in the last Crisis Era; France after the Franco-Prussian War), or replacement of one bad system with another (China after its last completed Crisis, most of central and Balkan Europe) or perhaps one flawed order with another flawed order (Spain after its Civil War, decolonization of South Asia and Indonesia) depends to no small extent upon the ability of the 4T leadership to reject the depravity of the latter part of the 3T.

Whatever their means of getting rich, the elites wax fattest when others live miserably.  Inequality in results and opportunity is the problem in America. Poverty stings most severely in the crassly-materialist, atomizing, spiritually-dead 3T; if the elites maintain the culture of a crassly-materialist, atomizing, spiritually-dead 3T they will only lengthen and worsen the 4T. Maybe at the worst those elites can profiteer from war and press-ganging subjected people into near-slavery... but war is itself a costly enterprise that requires deficit spending on the grandest scale possible.

If we want general solutions to the mess that we are in, then we will need a culture that celebrates life irrespective of social class and involuntary distinctions. We will need an economy that works for the peasant as well as for the big landlord, the factory worker as well as the tycoon, and the borrower as well as the lender. The low glass ceilings in bureaucratic organizations in recent years will require major reform of those organizations or their dissolution. Maybe when 'class' is more an expression of culture (motorcycles and sailboats are similarly expensive) than of indulgence and power on the one side and destitution despite toil on the other side.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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*** 15-Sep-19 World View -- Mideast tensions grow over Saudi drone attack and missile attacks on Idlib, Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Saudi oil processing facilities targeted by large drone attack
  • Syria regime increases bombing of hospitals in Idlib

****
**** Saudi oil processing facilities targeted by large drone attack
****


[Image: g190914b.jpg]
Saudi oil process facility after drone attack (WSJ)

Events in Saudi Arabia and Syria are increasing the probability that a
larger war could be triggered.

Reports are that over a dozen explosive drones attacked two oil
processing facilities in Saudi Arabia. This is the world's largest
oil processing facility. About half of Saudi's oil production will be
affected. The closure will reportedly impact nearly five million
barrels of crude production a day, roughly 5% of the world's daily oil
production. Saudi Arabia also supplies half of China's imported oil.

Saudi officials are saying that the damage can be repaired by Monday.
Whether the Saudis are successful at this will affect the oil and
stock markets on Monday.

The Houthis, the Iran-backed ethnic group in Yemen fighting against
the Yemen government backed by Saudi Arabia, claimed credit for drone
attacks.

However, there was a delay of several hours before the Houthis claimed
credit, and some analysts are saying that this makes it unlikely that
the Houthis were responsible.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed doubt that the Houthis
were responsible, and laid the blame on Iran in a tweet:

<QUOTE>"Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia
while Rouhani and Zarif pretend to engage in diplomacy. Amid all
the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an
unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply. There is no
evidence the attacks came from Yemen. ...

We call on all nations to publicly and unequivocally condemn
Iran’s attacks. The United States will work with our partners and
allies to ensure that energy markets remain well supplied and Iran
is held accountable for its aggression 3:59 PM · Sep 14,
2019·T"<END QUOTE>


It's possible that the drones were launched from Yemen, Iran or Iraq.
Whether the Houthis are directly responsible or not, most analysts
believe that Iran is behind the attack, especially after several
recent Iranian attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

The concerns are that the drone attacks will trigger increased
violence, including the following possibilities:
  • Heavier Saudi bombing of Houthis in Yemen.
  • Saudi bombing of Iranian targets in retaliation.
  • US missiles targeting Iran's oil facilities in
    retaliation.

****
**** Syria regime increases bombing of hospitals in Idlib
****


As we reported two weeks ago, civilians in Idlib province in Syria,
where airstrikes by Syria and Russia have been increasing dramatically
in recent weeks, are attacking border posts on Turkey's border in
order to enter Turkey as refugees. Turkey, which already hosts almost
four million Syrian refugees, has firmly closed the border to refugees
from Idlib.

Reports indicate that Syrian and Russian airstrikes are specially
targeting hospitals and schools, committing war crimes. Ironically,
the Syrians and Russians know the coordinates of these hospitals and
schools because the coordinates are being supplied by the United
Nations so that the Syrians and Russians will AVOID targeting
hospitals and schools. So they're using the coordinates in the
opposite of the way intended. Syria's Bashar al-Assad and Russia's
Vladimir Putin are two of the sleaziest leaders in the world today.

Idlib has about 3 million people, including about 70,000 anti-Assad
rebels, some of whom are linked to al-Qaeda. Bashar al-Assad
continues all 3 million of them to be "terrorists," to be exterminated
like cockroaches. He's said as much several times, and there's no
reason to disbelieve him.

More and more, the civilians in Idlib are turning against Turkey, whom
they see as "traitors" and "collaborators" with the genocide being
performed by Russia and al-Assad.

The worst protests on Turkey's borders are occurring in regions
controlled by al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, Jabhat
al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front), with the purpose of forcing Turkey to open
its borders to Idlib refugees.

For the past year, the world has been watching and waiting for Bashar
al-Assad to open up a full assault on Idlib as he has previously in
other regions like Aleppo, Ghouta and Daraa, where he used barrel
bombs on hospitals, schools, marketplaces and residential
neighborhoods, along with chlorine gas and Sarin gas. Apparently he's
been holding back from a full assault, possibly because of
international pressure, but there's an increasing feeling that he's
losing patience, and is anxious to get on with the genocide.

The Generational Dynamics prediction is that the Mideast is headed for
a major regional war, pitting Jews vs Arabs, Sunnis vs Shias, and
various ethnic groups against each other. The exact scenario can't be
predicted, but either the drone attack or the Idlib genocide could be
the spark that starts the war.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1) Paperback: 153 pages, over
100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/

Sources:

Related Articles:


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Iran,
Yemen, Houthis, Mike Pompeo,
Syria, Idlib, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Turkey

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John J. Xenakis
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The Middle East is beginning to look much like Europe in the 1930's -- failed states and rotten economies.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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** 15-Sep-2019 World View: Mideast tensions rise after attack on Saudi oil facilities

After the attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities, oil prices have
spiked by the biggest one-day percentage on record, as oil markets
open in Asia on Monday morning. There was an initial surge of about
18%, but they've leveled off to around 12% after the US and Saudi
Arabia said that it would release some stockpiled reserves. Donald
Trump issued this tweet:

Quote: "Based on the attack on Saudi Arabia, which may have
an impact on oil prices, I have authorized the release of oil from
the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, if needed, in a to-be-determined
amount.... sufficient to keep the markets well-supplied. I have
also informed all appropriate agencies to expedite approvals of
the oil pipelines currently in the permitting process in Texas and
various other States. 5:55 PM · Sep 15, 2019"

The Saudis claim that they will partially repair the damage from the
attack within a day or two, but even if that turns out to be true,
it's still not known how long it will be before the Saudis are
operating at full capacity again.

Iran denies responsibity for the attack, but it's generally believed
that Iran is responsible, and this is the sixth attack on Saudi oil
facilities in the last four months.

Debka, which sometimes gets things wrong, reports that US intelligence
has determine that the attack vehicles were not drones launched from
Yement, but cruise missiles launched fro Iraq:

Quote: "US intelligence experts are studying satellite images
and other video evidence to track the source in Iraq of the major
attack on key Saudi oil facilities on Saturday, Sept. 14. Their
first discovery was that cruise missiles rather than drones struck
the Saudi oil refineries at Abqaiq, the largest in the world, and
its second largest oil field at Khurais – both in the kingdom’s
Eastern Provinces. They have also confirmed that the missiles were
launched from a pro-Iranian Iraqi Shiite militia base, despite
Baghdad’s denials."

Trump appears to be preparing a military response to the series
of Iranian attacks. He tweeted this:

Quote: "Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason
to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded
depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the
Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and
under what terms we would proceed! 6:50 PM · Sep 15,
2019"

Trump recently canceled an attack on Iran at the last minute,
but he may follow through this week.

Tensions are also rising for another reason. The sharp rise in
oil prices is going to hurt Asian economies, including China,
which receives half of its imported oil from Saudi Arabia.

Even if the gap in oil supplies is filled with stockpiles and
reserves, the concern is that Iran is going to continue attacking
Saudi oil targets.

---- Sources:

-- Brent crude oil jumps more than 11% after drone strikes disrupt
Saudi crude production
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/15/us-crude...ction.html
(CNBC, 15-Sep-2019)

-- US intel suspects Iranian cruise missiles hit Saudi oil facilities
from Iraq base
https://www.debka.com/us-intel-suspects-...iraq-base/
(Debka, 15-Sep-2019)

-- Attack on Saudi oil field a game-changer in Gulf confrontation
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/15/middleeas...index.html
(CNN, 15-Sep-2019)

-- Iran denies role in attacks on Saudi oil facilities; Trump says
U.S. is ‘locked and loaded’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ira...story.html
(Washington Post, 15-Sep-2019)
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